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$POPMART's mid-term revenue grew by 23.8% while adjusted net profit only increased by 9.5%, with the core conflict being the intense struggle in the capital market between high valuation acceptance and overseas channel expenses squeezing profit margins.
From the event risk transmission path perspective, a fair value change loss of ¥720 million and increased expenses from channel expansion directly eroded the current risk appetite. Long positions face valuation downgrade pressure as profit growth lags behind revenue growth after positive news is realized.
In terms of driving factors, the strong recovery of China's offline and online channels is the primary driver, with revenue share rising to 71.0%, solidifying the foundation; overseas channel expenses and inventory turnover efficiency are the second drivers; gains and losses from financial asset fair value changes are the third variable causing short-term position allocation disturbances.
The bullish scenario requires sustained high growth in China and completion of overseas online adjustments. If adjusted net profit growth in future quarters rises again and aligns with revenue growth, the market will reassign risk premiums, triggering signals for increasing long positions; if overseas investment continues to drag gross margin below 69.7%, this bullish logic fails.
The bearish scenario focuses on persistently high expense ratios and accumulating inventory pressure. If overseas expenses fail to generate corresponding revenue growth and fair value losses continue to expand, positions will flee toward safe havens; if China's business growth suddenly slows, the bearish scenario will accelerate into a double hit on valuation and profits.
When the market ignores short-term profit margin contraction and only chases $POPMART based on China's 47.3% revenue growth, the conditional deduction system based on profit quality becomes invalid.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the marginal changes in overseas channel inventory turnover days and institutional fund position adjustments after earnings release.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大The current rise of BTC and ETH is not simply FOMO; there are three real forces driving it: ① Short squeeze — $3.5 billion in leverage was liquidated, the seventh largest liquidation event in history; ② Liquidity improvement expectations — the Treasury hinted at possible further actions, Bessent said 30-year US Treasury liquidity is "particularly poor," and the market is anticipating policy support; ③ Regulatory friendliness shift — Washington's attitude toward crypto is warming, with continuous large inflows into ETFs (BTC +$606 million in one day, ETH +$220 million, SOL +$15 million). With these three forces resonating, the crypto market cap surged by $280 billion in 24 hours. But don’t get carried away by the surge — strong resistance zones lie ahead: BTC resistance at 79,400-82,600, heavy ETH resistance at 2,500; SOL strong resistance at 95. Short-term support levels: BTC near 76,500, ETH near 2,375, SOL near 90.5. Strategy: holders should watch support closely and reduce positions if broken; those out of the market should wait for a pullback near support to buy, and avoid chasing prices in resistance zones. The trend is upward, but timing is more important than direction. Shorting is more meaningful than trying to guess the top. $BTC $ETH 8-21 Market Highlights
BTC continues to surge, reaching an intraday high close to $79,200, with a maximum daily increase of about 8-9%; ETH stands near 2400, altcoins like XRP have surged significantly, with approximately $1.5 billion liquidated in 24 hours, over 90% of which are short positions being forcefully closed, continuing the short squeeze trend.
Drivers: The expectation of a friendly US crypto policy continues to ferment, combined with liquidity improvement from US Treasury repo operations, spot ETFs maintain capital inflows, and short covering continues to push prices higher.
Current Market Status: The Fear and Greed Index has entered the greed zone, with multiple consecutive large bullish candles, indicating clear short-term overbought conditions.
Risk Warning: A large part of this rally is driven by short covering; once the shorts are fully liquidated, if new funds do not follow, a sharp pullback may easily occur.
It is recommended that positions with profits raise stop-loss levels to protect gains; avoid chasing contracts or end-of-day options at high levels; if not yet entered, do not rush to jump in aggressively, wait for a pullback opportunity to observe if the 200-day moving average support holds.
Market review, not investment advice, crypto volatility risk is extremely high.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Oil prices near $95, sanctions hit Hormuz hard: Hong Kong stocks open higher against the trend, massive capital outflows amid global stagflation clouds
On Friday morning, as global financial markets faced multiple macroeconomic storms, the Asia-Pacific market showed an extremely resilient independent strength.
Overnight, U.S. stocks were pressured across the board due to a rise in long-term Treasury yields, with the S&P 500 down 0.9% and the Nasdaq closing down 1%. However, the Hong Kong stock market chose to open higher against the trend, with the Hang Seng Index opening up 0.4% to stand above 25,807 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also opening 0.4% higher at 8,579 points, showing an independent resistance rally despite the heavy losses in overnight external markets.
But looking at the global commodity and geopolitical landscape, a larger macro headwind is rapidly gathering.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently issued a tough signal, indicating that Washington may impose the harshest sanctions ever on Iran.
This statement instantly triggered nerves among global shipping and energy traders, sharply escalating concerns about a long-term blockade and conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint.
Stimulated by this, Brent crude futures prices surged violently, reaching a near one-month high of $94.71 per barrel.
Oil prices breaking through the $95 mark is not an isolated geopolitical event; it is exerting deep "stagflationary pressure" on global asset pricing through two extremely lethal transmission chains.
The first chain is the secondary rise of cost-push inflation.
Energy, as the fundamental bloodline of industrial production and global logistics, keeps crude oil prices high, directly pushing up the comprehensive costs for downstream manufacturing and consumer sectors, threatening to fully reverse the anti-inflation achievements previously boasted by major central banks in Europe and the U.S.
The second chain is the ruthless sealing off of downward interest rate space.
When oil prices rebound and trigger secondary inflation concerns, it becomes difficult for long-term U.S. Treasury yields to fall substantially in the short term. The 10-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly pinned near 4.70%, keeping global liquidity in a high-cost, tight state.
Under this dual squeeze of "high oil prices + high interest rates," Hong Kong stocks' resilience against the trend reflects the bottoming effect of low valuations and long-term defensive southbound capital, but global risk assets still need to be wary of liquidity divergence under stagflation clouds.
For tech growth stocks and highly leveraged speculative funds, the elevated risk-free rate remains a hard valuation ceiling; but for hard assets with strategic hedging properties such as commodities, gold, and decentralized Bitcoin, the long-term logic of global geopolitical fragmentation and credit currency fiat depreciation is being further solidified.
In the complex environment of Brent crude nearing $95, coexistence of geopolitical tensions and high U.S. Treasury yields, is your current investment strategy focused on allocating to high dividend and commodity defenses, or actively attacking in the counter-trend rebound of low-valuation assets?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 The blond just called me and said the pump will happen at 11 PMBitcoin surged to 79,000!
The market had been oscillating within a narrow range for the past few days, with many bearish traders piling up a large number of short positions, creating a panic sentiment.
Starting from the evening of 8-19, the market changed dramatically: friendly regulatory news came from the US, combined with liquidity improvement brought by US Treasury repo operations, BTC broke through the key 69,000 level, directly triggering a short squeeze stampede, causing a large number of short positions to be liquidated. Liquidations automatically buy in, which further pushed the price up.
BTC surged from around 64,000 all the way to nearly 79,000, ETH violently rallied from 1,900 to above 2,300, ETH directly broke through the 200-day moving average bull-bear line, altcoins collectively rose, and the entire network experienced several consecutive days of massive liquidations, the vast majority of which were short positions being cleared.
⚠️ Current situation:
There have been continuous large bullish candles, and market sentiment has quickly switched to greed. A large part of this rally comes from short covering, not entirely from new buying. After the shorts are squeezed out, whether the price can continue to rise depends on whether ETF spot funds can take over.
The risk is high: short squeeze rallies rise sharply but also tend to correct harshly; do not mistake this big rebound as the start of a bull market, and avoid chasing contracts or perpetual options at high levels.
Market review, not investment advice.🌙 Crypto Market Evening Review｜August 21
Tonight's market can be summed up with two keywords: strong recovery + lurking risks.
BTC has surged about 24% this week, reclaiming the $77,000 level, marking one of the strongest weekly performances since 2023. Nearly $3.8 billion in short liquidations occurred over the past two days, with Thursday seeing a rare single-day liquidation scale not seen since 2021.
But what truly deserves attention is not just the price.
📌 Capital is returning
August 20:
• BTC spot ETF net inflow of about $606 million
• ETH spot ETF net inflow of about $221 million
• Total BTC ETF net inflow in August about $2.07 billion
The acceleration of ETF capital inflows indicates this rally is not purely driven by retail sentiment; institutional funds are stepping back in.
Standard Chartered even believes that if ETF inflows continue to recover, BTC could keep challenging historical highs after October, hinting that the previous $100,000 year-end target might have been conservative.
Bernstein shares a similar view: this surge toward $80,000 is essentially driven by a combination of liquidity and ETF capital.
⚠️ But the market is not without risks
MANTRA Chain suffered a security incident, causing the network to pause and the token to hit a historic low, reminding the market that the hotter the rally, the more we must not overlook the technical risks of projects themselves.
Meanwhile, controversies over the Trump family's crypto earnings continue to escalate in the U.S., and South Korea is considering further expanding regulatory authority over unregistered crypto companies.
So the current market is quite interesting:
Prices are strengthening, capital is flowing back, shorts are desperately cutting losses, but risks are shifting from "market" to "projects, regulation, and macro factors."
In the short term, the biggest risk may not be a trend reversal but the high volatility following consecutive surges and liquidity contraction over the weekend.
BTC has re-entered a strong zone, making chasing gains less cost-effective. What’s more worth watching next is whether ETF capital can be sustained and if the $77,000 level can truly hold.
The crazier the market, the more we need to stay calm. #SK Hynix Buyback Implemented, Samsung Shareholder Returns Pending Confirmation
"SK Hynix's $28.6 Billion Buyback Implemented, Samsung Follows Up with $80 Billion Intense Battle"
Just now! The most intense capital battle in Asian semiconductor history has begun. SK Hynix has just launched a massive $28.6 billion buyback, and Samsung immediately responded with a staggering $80 billion shareholder return bomb.
The core of this giant clash is the era of huge profits from AI high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shifting from capacity competition to capital returns competition. Hynix has earned huge profits from Nvidia orders, directly spending 40 trillion KRW to retire outstanding shares, maximizing earnings per share.
Samsung, holding $120 billion in cash, can no longer sit still. Besides investing heavily in HBM new architecture R&D, it has directly raised its dividend and buyback pool to a historic peak of $80 billion, using real money to block institutional investors from voting with their feet.
The global memory chip strategy has completely changed. Giants no longer blindly expand production to fight price wars but instead convert AI monopoly profits directly into buybacks and retirements, boosting the per-share value on their balance sheets.
The key focus going forward is the competition between the two in the second half of the year over next-generation HBM4 yield rates. As long as order concentration remains focused, this trillion-level buyback supported by monopoly profits will continue to weld the asset valuation midpoint at a high level. $BTC The most noteworthy aspect of $POPMART's mid-term performance is that the growth focus has clearly shifted back to the Chinese market and the plush toy category. Revenue continues to grow, but profit growth lags behind revenue. Adjustments in overseas online channels, inventory turnover, and expense investments mean this financial report is not just about the "blockbuster IP" narrative. Let's first look at the core data. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, Pop Mart achieved revenue of ¥17.173 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%; gross profit was ¥11.966 billion, up 22.6%, with a gross margin of 69.7%, slightly down from 70.3% in the same period last year. Operating profit was ¥6.725 billion, up 11.3%; profit attributable to owners of the company was ¥5.038 billion, up 10.1%; adjusted net profit was ¥5.156 billion, up 9.5%. Revenue growth outpaced profit growth, due to increased expenses from channel and personnel expansion, as well as the impact of changes in the fair value of financial assets. The company recorded a fair value loss of approximately ¥720 million in the first half of the year, compared to a gain of about ¥120 million in the same period last year, which is a key factor in understanding why profit growth is slower than revenue. The Chinese market has become the main growth driver. Chinese business revenue reached ¥12.201 billion, up 47.3% year-on-year, with its revenue share rising from 59.7% in the same period last year to 71.0%. Among this, offline channel revenue in China was ¥6.869 billion, up 35.1%; online channel revenue was ¥4.779 billion, up 62.7%, saying BTC surged past 70,000, and the real danger isn't the shorts, but those who just broke even. BTC has indeed been quite fierce these past couple of days. It climbed all the way from around 60,000 to above 70,000, even briefly hitting over 75,000 today, with a nearly 20% increase in just a few days. Meanwhile, a large number of shorts were forcibly liquidated, and market sentiment shifted directly from "the bear market isn't over" to "is the bull market back?" But I want to remind you: the most dangerous now might no longer be the shorts, but the group of people who just broke even. Why? Because the shorts have already been taught a lesson by this surge. The real problem lies with another group—the ones who held on tightly when BTC was falling, with their accounts showing unrealized losses of 20%, 30%, or even ready to accept losses and cut their positions. Then BTC suddenly rallied. "Finally back to break-even!" So their first reaction isn't to take profits, but: "Wait a bit longer, 80,000 is coming soon."😍😍😍 This is what worries me the most. Many people aren't buying back because they understand the market, but because they've finally turned a profit and their emotions have returned. And this rally can't simply be understood as "shorts getting liquidated causing the rise." Recent market conditions have indeed seen several important changes simultaneously: the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, US regulators signaling more positive crypto policies, ETF demand warming up, combined with the massive short liquidations earlier, all pushing the market up. This means: this rally isn't purely a pump with no substance. But we also can't conclude that a#Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
If $ANTHROPIC really goes public, I think it could become the most important "valuation test" in this round of AI market.
Anthropic secretly submitted an IPO application to the SEC in June, and the market news now is that the documents could be made public as early as the end of August. Even more astonishing, its annualized revenue run rate has surged from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 to over $65 billion by the end of July this year.
Inside Anthropic, the 2028 revenue is expected to reach $190 billion to $200 billion, and Wall Street is now even discussing a valuation close to $2 trillion. In other words, the market is no longer pricing Anthropic based on today, but is buying two to three years ahead.
The AI industry no longer lacks growth stories. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, including those tech giants in the US stock market that are crazily expanding data centers, the real question for the next phase of the market is:
After pouring tens of billions of dollars into AI, how much money can actually be earned back?
If Anthropic can prove that high growth can ultimately translate into high profits, I think the valuation ceiling for the entire AI sector could be opened again.
But if the $2 trillion valuation gets too far ahead of profitability, it could instead become the first touchstone to test how big this AI bubble really is.Tuesday evening session, a few words
Tonight, let's not get stuck on short-term K-line signals, but talk about the expected swings.
The market so far is not about a single coin crashing, nor is it about the main force deliberately harvesting; the essence is an unavoidable real contradiction: risk appetite still exists, but easing expectations keep swinging, US Treasury yields remain high, leaving the market in a dilemma.
In plain terms—the market is still willing to gamble on various thematic stories, trading enthusiasm remains; but inflation data repeatedly rebounds, employment data remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve has no conditions to quickly flood the market with liquidity. Even if rate cuts start later, they will be small steps of testing; the market's fantasy of strong easing is basically hard to realize.
This "emotion is sufficient, but liquidity is insufficient" is the root cause of the current large-cap oscillation and rapid sector rotation.
US stocks continue to oscillate at high levels, supported by corporate earnings and AI industry logic. Crypto asset logic is completely different; the market highly depends on dollar liquidity overflow. Now easing expectations are inconsistent, incremental off-market funds are hesitant, so the market sees hot coins erupting one after another, while mainstream large caps struggle to break out sustainably, and positive news rarely forms effective follow-through.
BTC
Closed the evening near 76430 with high-level oscillation.
The previous rate cut fantasies brought by FOMC have been continuously corrected by the reality of "high rates maintained longer." The market now trades on delayed rate cuts and reduced cut magnitude. In a high-rate environment, institutional allocations remain cautious, ETF inflows are intermittent, and the large cap can only grind repeatedly within a range to digest floating profit chips.
Support at 74000‑74600; a valid break below would discount the bullish pattern; resistance at 77800‑78600, liquidity has not fundamentally turned, making it difficult to stabilize above in the short term.
ETH
Battling around 2356.
Has some resilience to decline but still cannot escape macro constraints. For ETH to open a trending move, liquidity easing, on-chain activity, and market speculative sentiment need to resonate together, which conditions are currently incomplete. The 2400 level faces repeated pressure—not due to huge selling above, but due to lack of incremental funds actively entering. 2260 is the core defense level; before the Fed decision lands, an independent trend rebound is unlikely.
SNDK
Storage sector experiencing intense high-level oscillation.
A typical high-beta thematic, extremely sensitive to US Treasury yields and rate cut expectations. Liquidity expectations improve, it surges violently; easing expectations cool down, funds immediately withdraw from the sector, continuously battling long and short within a large box range.
SPCX
Narrative-driven target.
Highly tied to external hot stories, can break away from the large cap to form independent pulses; once narrative heat fades, pullbacks are equally fierce. Dominated by speculative funds, volatility far exceeds mainstream coins.
ENA, CRV
Defi hot spot rotation.
Existing funds cluster for speculation, short-term explosive power is considerable, but chip structure is unstable; after the frenzy, rapid corrections can come anytime. Suitable for light positions and short-term trades; avoid heavy positions at highs.
Core logic explained
Currently, the strengthening of US stocks and local crypto speculation have completely disconnected underlying drivers: US stocks earn from corporate earnings, crypto speculates on easing expectations and thematic narratives. But inflation stickiness restricts the Fed’s hands; no strong easing is visible short term, suppressing the overall upward logic of the crypto market.
Themes can perform in rotation, but incremental off-market funds lag behind. Economic data remains resilient, inflation repeatedly disturbs, policy space is limited, and high-risk assets continue facing valuation reappraisal. This is not a sudden negative shock crashing the market, but a continuous revision of market expectations, with funds clustering only in local hotspots. Before the Fed’s September decision, the market will likely continue the "local hotspot eruptions, large cap high-level grinding" split pattern.
How to handle overnight
Risk control first, do not chase intraday pulse rallies, avoid heavy bets on hot themes.
BTC: Hold light positions above 74600, actively reduce positions to avoid risk if broken.
ETH: Hold above 2260 and continue to observe; consider increasing participation only after stabilizing above 2400.
SNDK: Battle within the box range, strictly control position size, do not chase sharp rallies at highs.
SPCX: Purely emotional speculation, quick in and out, strictly adhere to take-profit and stop-loss.
ENA, CRV: Only light positions for short-term trades, avoid long-term engagement.
Final words
Thematic stories emerge endlessly, but liquidity is particularly stingy; this is the most realistic current market situation. Before the decision lands, do not fantasize about a broad-based rally; let go of obsession and protect position safety.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 bitcoin:native correction history:
2011: -93%
2015: -87%
2017: -83%
2021: -78%
2026: -54% 👀
Diminishing volatility returns implies a cycle low in the $40k–$48k area if the pattern holds:
60% drop ≈ $50,500
65% drop ≈ $44,200
68% drop ≈ $40,400
The cycle is not yet complete on the historical 12–14 month peak-to-trough clock, so a further move lower remains possible if the prior rhythm continues.
This is why I currently hedge and I’m still not all in…
#bitcoin #btc #cryptoMonday night session, a few words
Tonight, I won’t list too many indicators, just talk about the market fragmentation.
The market has reached this point not because the main forces deliberately shake out positions, nor due to sudden news shocks, but because of a very real contradiction: risk sentiment is ignited, but incremental funds are lacking, and the Fed’s rate cut expectations are constantly being revised by the market.
Simply put—the market is willing to believe in future stories, retail trading enthusiasm is high; but inflation data repeatedly disturbs, and rate cuts won’t come as fast or as aggressively as everyone imagines. The desire to loosen monetary policy to support risk assets is firmly restrained by stubborn inflation data. Even if rate cuts happen in September, they will most likely be minor adjustments, don’t expect flood-like easing.
This “hot sentiment, cold funds” is the fundamental reason for the current mainstream sideways market and the wild rotation among altcoins.
US stocks still maintain high-level oscillation, supported by corporate earnings and AI industry logic. The crypto market follows a completely different logic, benefiting from the overflow of US dollar liquidity. Now that easing expectations fluctuate repeatedly and large off-market funds remain cautious, we see some coins surge wildly locally, but the overall market struggles to break through continuously, lacking capital follow-through after positive news.
BTC
Closed the evening session oscillating near the high of 76920.
The previously wildly priced-in large easing expectations have been continuously digested by the reality of "high interest rates lasting longer." The market is now trading on delayed and reduced rate cuts. In a high interest rate environment, institutional allocation willingness is cautious, ETF inflows fluctuate, and the market can only grind repeatedly within a range.
Support at 74200‑74900; a decisive break below will lower bullish expectations; resistance at 78100‑78800; without substantial liquidity improvement, it’s hard to hold above in the short term.
ETH
Consolidating around 2381.
Has some resilience but cannot escape macro constraints. For ETH to trend, it needs a confluence of easing liquidity, on-chain demand, and market speculation atmosphere, which are currently incomplete. The 2420 level has repeatedly failed to break through—not due to heavy selling pressure but lack of new funds entering. 2270 is the key defense level; before the Fed’s decision, it’s hard to see an independent strong rebound.
SNDK
Storage concept sees high-level tug-of-war.
A typical high-beta thematic sector, extremely sensitive to US Treasury yields and rate cut expectations. When liquidity expectations improve, it surges violently; once expectations fade, funds quickly exit, maintaining a large volatile range.
SPCX
Narrative-driven asset.
Highly tied to external hot narratives, can break away from the main market to form independent pulses. After narrative heat fades, pullbacks are equally sharp. Dominated by speculative funds, volatility far exceeds mainstream coins.
ENA, PEOPLE
Altcoin hotspots in collective frenzy.
Existing funds cluster for speculation, showing strong short-term explosiveness but extremely unstable chips. After the frenzy, rapid corrections can come anytime. Suitable only for light positions and speculative plays; strictly avoid heavy chasing at highs.
Core logic explained
Currently, the strength in US stocks and local crypto speculation are driven by completely different fundamentals: US stocks profit from corporate earnings, crypto speculates on easing expectations and thematic narratives. But the Fed is constrained by inflation, strong easing is unlikely in the short term, suppressing the underlying logic for overall crypto market rise.
Themes can rotate in speculation, but lack fresh external capital inflows. Economic data shows resilience, inflation stickiness persists, policy space is compressed, and high-risk assets continue to face valuation reappraisal. This is not a single bearish shock but continuous market expectation revisions, with funds clustering in local hotspots. Before the Fed’s September decision, the market will likely continue the "altcoin frenzy, large-cap grinding" fragmented pattern.
Overnight strategy
Risk control first, avoid chasing high pulses, refuse heavy bets on hot themes.
BTC: Light positions above 7490, actively reduce positions to avoid risk if broken down.
ETH: Hold above 2270 and continue to observe; consider increasing positions only after stabilizing above 2420.
SNDK: Range trading, strictly control position size, avoid chasing sharp rallies at highs.
SPCX: Purely sentiment-driven, quick in and out, strictly follow take-profit and stop-loss rules.
ENA, PEOPLE: Only light short-term positions, no prolonged holding.
Final words
Narratives are everywhere, but liquidity is very stingy; this is the truest state of the current market. Before the decision, don’t fantasize about a broad rally; less obsession, more risk control.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #特朗普称通胀迎来好消息 Bitcoin surges sharply, don’t mistake a "short squeeze" for a "bull market"
This week, Bitcoin soared from $62,000 to above $75,000, with a weekly increase of over 20%. More than 130,000 liquidations occurred across the network, totaling over $1.2 billion. The market is buzzing, with voices proclaiming the "bull market is back."
But a sober look reveals that this surge is not driven by spot buying but is a typical "short squeeze" scenario — a massive accumulation of short positions over six months was liquidated en masse after the price broke key levels, with forced buying pushing prices higher layer by layer.
The U.S. Treasury’s expansion of Treasury buybacks, the White House crypto summit, and expectations for the advancement of the "CLARITY Act" are indeed positive factors, but the legislative outlook remains uncertain, and the Damocles sword of the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates has not fallen. Research firm Fundstrat warns that Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to historic lows and may experience a sharp 30% swing in the next 60 days, with a downside target possibly reaching $44,800.
Every surge creates the illusion of "this time is different." But those who truly navigate cycles are never the frenzied buyers chasing gains, but those who respect risk. Our country has clearly banned cryptocurrency trading speculation; ordinary investors should stay away from high-risk speculation, protect their wallets, and maintain a rational perspective.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC The point I particularly note at this time is:
A strong rise in BTC is a good signal, but to confirm a sustainable uptrend cycle, we need to see ETFs continue to attract funds + Spot trading increase + OI not rising too hot.$BTC surged above $79,000 within three days, with massive turnover near the round number level fiercely clashing with short-covering pressure.
Shorts across the network endured tens of billions of dollars in forced liquidations during the short squeeze, pushing the spot price directly toward the technical resistance zone near $80,000.
On the macro front, the expansion of long-term U.S. Treasury repo volumes has driven yields and the dollar lower in tandem, prompting some fixed income allocation funds to shift toward gold and crypto assets.
This cross-market capital spillover has reduced the cost of absorption in the spot market, thereby facilitating an upward resonance of continuous net inflows from derivatives leverage funds and ETFs.
If incremental ETF funds can continue to absorb selling pressure near $80,000, the market is expected to extend toward the $83,200 range; however, if spot buying quickly fades after a breakout, the breakout will be deemed invalid.
Conversely, if bullish momentum shows a bearish divergence near the level and breaks below the $72,000 support, the market will enter a phase of high-level profit-taking and deep pullback following the previous sharp rally.
As long as the dollar index and long-term U.S. Treasury yields stop declining and rebound quickly, the current liquidity spillover logic will face correction.
The key variable to confirm in the coming days is whether the daily net inflow of spot ETFs near the $80,000 level experiences a sudden slowdown.
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 $PEOPLE rose 39%, with a funding rate only at +0.01%, this kind of leaderboard token is not common.
$PEOPLE entered the front ranks today, I first look at the structure, not the candlestick chart. Spot 24h volume is only $18.42M, while futures hit $170.43M, futures/spot ratio is 9.3 times, indicating that the discussion forum is not chasing “holding the token,” but using leverage to amplify volatility. Current price is $0.0115, daily high/low $0.01315 / $0.0082, this kind of amplitude naturally attracts all short-term funds.
More importantly, open interest has piled up to 837,498,656 PEOPLE, but the funding rate hasn’t spiraled out of control. My understanding is straightforward: this is not a strongly one-sided trend, but more of a high turnover game. 323,360 trades have ignited sentiment and short-term liquidity, so it simultaneously entered the spot gainers list, futures gainers list, and futures volume list.
My approach to coins like this is simple: don’t chase the market price. I placed a short order around $0.0126, position 3%, stop loss above $0.0133; if it returns to around $0.0106, then consider taking profit. The reason is not bearish on the project, but this kind of “futures first push the hype to the max, funding rate not completely distorted” structure often results in back-and-forth harvesting. If wrong, exit at -4%, no fuss. $PEOPLE #PEOPLE
The market turns faster than flipping a page, keep some position.The essence of this round of market movement is a concentrated price release formed by the "crowded short structure meeting multiple positive catalysts," not driven by a single factor; the continuous surge of Meme coins is the emotional spillover and capital rotation effect under Bitcoin's short squeeze rally. 1. The core logic of Bitcoin's continuous short squeeze rally 1. Overcrowded shorts trigger a chain stampede (the most direct amplifier) Over the past few months, Bitcoin has fallen from about $126,000 to just over $60,000, forming a strong market consensus of "short on every rebound," with perpetual contract funding rates long negative and short positions highly concentrated. When the price breaks through key resistance levels, a large number of shorts are forcibly liquidated (forced liquidation = passive buying), creating a chain reaction of "price rise → short liquidation → forced buying → continued rise → more short liquidation." August 19-20: Over $3 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, over 90% shorts, nearly 200,000 liquidations August 21: Another $1.23 billion liquidated, including $1.05 billion shorts Bitcoin surged from around $64,000 to $75,000, an astonishing three-day cumulative increase 2. Triple policy/macro catalysts overlapped on the same day (sparking the rally) The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases: 10-30 year Treasury repurchase scale increased from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, pushing long-term yields significantly lower, holding Bitcoin In the past few days, there has been a very noticeable shift in the rhythm of the crypto market. $BTC quickly rose from the previous consolidation range around 63,000–65,000 USD and is now near 76,000 USD, with a 24-hour high reaching 79,603 USD; $ETH quickly caught up from below 2,000 USD and currently holds around 2,370 USD, with a 24-hour peak at 2,449 USD. Looking at the gains alone, this can no longer be simply classified as a "technical rebound." BTC's 24-hour increase is about 6.95%, while ETH, after a big surge the previous day, still maintains a gain of over 4% today. More importantly, both have clearly risen above the 1-hour EMA20 and EMA60, indicating that this rally has evolved from short-term sentiment-driven to a phased trend. 1. The most important catalyst for this rally: a change in liquidity expectations One of the variables the market is currently most focused on is the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchase operations. Essentially, this is not "directly injecting liquidity into the crypto market," but it improves market expectations regarding long-term bond liquidity and financial conditions. U.S. long-term Treasury yields had been persistently high, exerting clear pressure on risk assets. After the Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, the market's immediate reaction was to trade on eased long-term interest rate pressure, a weaker dollar, and marginal improvement in liquidity conditions. This is also why not only BTC has risen in recent days, but assets like gold have also strengthened simultaneously. The market has re-encountered the previously familiar "currency depreciation exchangeSunday night session, a few words
Tonight, less talk about market patterns, more about expectation misalignment.
The market has reached this point not because a single coin is being dumped, nor because technical patterns have completely broken down, but due to an underlying real-world contradiction: risk appetite is rising, but liquidity supply can't keep up, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and capital is caught in a dilemma.
In plain terms—risk narratives are hot, the market is willing to speculate on stories; however, U.S. Treasury repos and sticky inflation remain, so dollar liquidity has not been substantially loosened. Investors want to embrace risk assets, but the monetary environment does not allow for flooding the market with liquidity. Even if there are future rate cuts, it will be difficult to see the strong easing the market fantasizes about; more likely, there will be tentative minor adjustments.
This "hot narrative, cold liquidity" is the root cause of the recent severe sector divergence.
The U.S. stock market can maintain high-level oscillation partly due to corporate earnings support and partly due to passive allocation of safe-haven funds. The crypto market is different; its trend heavily depends on dollar liquidity overflow. Now, with easing expectations wavering repeatedly, incremental off-exchange funds hesitate and watch, leading to localized altcoin frenzies while mainstream large caps fail to sustain momentum, and even positive news struggles to gain follow-through.
BTC
Oscillating near 76760.5 at high levels tonight.
Earlier FOMC-driven easing hopes have been continuously corrected by the reality of "high rates maintained longer." The market no longer bets on consecutive large rate cuts but trades on delayed timing and limited cut magnitude. In a high-rate environment, the appeal of zero-yield assets declines, ETF inflows fluctuate, and the market grinds within a range.
Support at 74000‑74700; a decisive break below lowers expectations. Resistance at 78000‑78900; liquidity has not fundamentally shifted, so it’s hard to hold above in the short term.
ETH
Battling around 2372.68.
Resilience is decent but also constrained by macro expectations. ETH needs both liquidity easing and on-chain activity plus speculative sentiment to resonate; currently, neither condition is sufficient. Repeated failure to break 2400 is not due to heavy selling pressure but because large off-exchange funds are reluctant to enter. 2265 is the core defense; before the Fed decision, it’s hard to see an independent strong rebound.
SNDK
Storage chain experiencing intense high-level volatility.
A high-narrative, high-beta sector, extremely sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields and liquidity expectations. When liquidity expectations improve, it surges violently; when easing expectations cool, funds are the first to exit this theme, continuing fierce range-bound battles.
SPCX
Theme-driven coin.
Highly tied to external narrative sentiment; it can produce independent pulses without regard to the broader market but will also quickly retreat after narrative fades. It relies entirely on sentiment-driven funds, with volatility far exceeding mainstream coins.
Core logic explained
This round of localized altcoin excitement and its disconnect from the main market boils down to this: U.S. stocks earn from corporate profits, crypto speculates on narratives but lacks liquidity inflow. The Fed is constrained by inflation data and cannot quickly pivot to strong easing, undermining the fundamental logic for crypto’s overall upward trend.
Themes can be speculated on, but the macro environment does not support incremental entry. Economic data remains resilient, inflation stickiness persists, and policy is constrained, so high-risk assets continue to face valuation pressure. This is not a sudden negative shock but a repeated repricing of expectations, with capital selectively clustering in local hotspots. Before the next Fed decision, the market will likely maintain a "local euphoria, broad consolidation" fractured pattern.
Overnight approach
Prioritize caution, avoid chasing pulses, and do not heavily bet on hot themes.
BTC: Light holdings above 74700, reduce actively if broken.
ETH: Hold above 2265 and continue watching; consider increasing participation after stabilizing above 2400.
SNDK: Range trading, strictly control position size, avoid chasing high-level pulses.
SPCX: Pure sentiment play, light participation, prepare for quick take-profit and stop-loss.
Final words
Narratives are lively, liquidity is restrained; this is the truest current market reality. Before the decision lands, don’t fantasize about broad rallies—have more respect and less obsession.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 This is laughable. AI compute doesn't solve the double coincidence of wants problem and intelligence is a singular commodity that, while valuable, isn't always what individuals are demanding.
Bitcoin doesn't turn energy into value, it turns it into money, which has value. Money is a specific tool with a specific purpose, to solve the double coincidence of wants problem and bitcoin does this in a way that makes the tool resistant #BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch Not all coins can be chased right now. $BTC is the main line, $ETH is the second baton, and for other coins, first see if there is capital overflow.
The easiest mistake to make in this round of the market is seeing $BTC rally and assuming all coins will rotate. In previous bull markets, when BTC rose, ETH followed, altcoins soared, and Meme coins surged wildly; everyone got used to this pattern. But this time, capital is clearly more selective. BTC can rise because it benefits from clear regulation, ETFs, institutional spot demand, the digital gold narrative, and bond market disturbances all supporting it simultaneously. Not just any coin can tap into this logic.
$ETH is now the second baton, but it hasn’t fully taken over yet. For ETH to take the baton, two things need to be proven: first, after BTC stabilizes, whether capital is willing to spread from digital gold to on-chain finance; second, whether ETH can outperform BTC. If BTC hits 70,000 and ETH just follows slightly, it means the market is still defensive; if BTC consolidates and ETH starts to ramp up volume and attack, that indicates risk appetite is truly spreading.
So the order to watch the market now must be clear: first, see if BTC can turn above 70,000 into a base; then see if ETH/BTC can strengthen; only then look at DOGE, SOL, AI, Meme, and other high-volatility sectors. Many people like to chase the most exciting coins right away, but that’s when you’re most likely to get trapped. Without the main line stable, the branches are just pulses; once the main line is stable, the branches can sustain.
BTC’s current trading logic is very clear: driven by regulatory expectations, ETF funds reactivating, short covering, and the dollar and bond markets giving risk assets a breather. ETH’s logic is more complex: it depends on ETFs, staking, stablecoins, DeFi, RWA, and on-chain activity. Meme coins like DOGE depend even more on retail sentiment and volume. These three assets don’t move to the same rhythm and can’t be analyzed with the same logic.
If I were to write a trade signal post, I’d focus on the “capital path.” The first phase is BTC absorbing capital, concentrating money into the most certain asset. The second phase is ETH validation; if ETH outperforms, it means capital is willing to take on more risk. The third phase is DOGE and other high-volatility sectors; if this phase hasn’t arrived yet, going heavy early is likely to catch short-term sentiment waves.
The key for the short term is simple: BTC holds 70,000, the market’s main line is intact; ETH starts to outperform BTC, indicating capital overflow; DOGE breaks out with volume and holds, showing Meme sentiment is returning. Missing any of these three signals means the market is incomplete. If you just see BTC rising and rush into all coins, that’s not following the trend, it’s chasing blindly.
True traders don’t buy just because prices rise; they know where the money should go. BTC is the door, ETH is the corridor, DOGE and altcoins are the rooms. If the door isn’t stable, don’t rush to the innermost rooms; if the corridor is empty, the activity in the rooms is probably just a flicker of lights.
For reference, I mainly looked at today’s reports from Barron’s, MarketWatch, Investor’s Business Daily on BTC breaking 70,000, the Clarity Act/White House crypto meeting, ETFs, and US Treasury buybacks. The post says that Bitcoin experienced a strong rise during the week, from about $62,600 to a peak of $79,400 before retreating near $76,900. This is linked to improved liquidity following a U.S. announcement to repurchase Treasury bonds, in addition to the liquidation of many short positions that boosted the rise.
Technically, Bitcoin surpassed an important target near $76,000, but the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, which may indicate volatility or profit-taking in the short term. Also, the immediate demand is approaching a shift to positive, which could support continued momentum if confirmed, but it has not been confirmed yet. Recently, $XAU $BTC $ETH have rebounded strongly, and the biggest contributor to this is the repurchase of U.S. Treasury bonds!
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury Department announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, increasing the single liquidity support repurchase scale for some 10-30 year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
The Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases directly pushed down long-term Treasury yields. With bond yields shrinking, the attractiveness of the dollar declined, the dollar index weakened, and overall market risk appetite quickly warmed up.
Institutions then started rotating funds, selling low-yield fixed-income Treasuries and directly reallocating into the world's largest risk investment assets, Bitcoin and gold.
Ethereum, due to its high elasticity and concentrated short positions earlier, triggered short squeezes and liquidations during the rise, further amplifying the gains and resulting in a much stronger performance than the broader market.
Additionally, with the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, each new president's fiscal decisions differ. Until this huge volatility emerges, the continued weakening of the dollar will directly impact the U.S. stock market.
Although this will cause a brief pullback in BTC and ETH, the buying interest below remains relatively concentrated, and intraday pullback points can still be used to position long orders.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ "The big rebound in the past two days comes from the support of US Treasury repo, positive signals from the White House regulatory meeting, and the return of institutional funds to ETFs, combined with multiple resonances from large-scale short squeeze liquidations.
But be aware, the long-end yield of US Treasuries has rebounded again, and the pressure of high interest rates has not completely disappeared; the tense situation in the Middle East has caused oil prices to surge, and inflation risks still loom overhead.
The CFTC has released a backup regulatory plan, but the key milestone for the bill is in September, so do not mistake expectations for already realized benefits.
BTC has entered the greed sentiment zone, with strong resistance above; do not blindly chase highs. If you chase highs, be sure to control risks and avoid getting stuck at the peak. Currently, it has already hit a high-pressure level, and the resistance here is very strong. Once ETF inflows weaken and the bond market deteriorates again, the market can easily pull back quickly. Risk control must not be neglected."Today, the crypto market is experiencing a long-awaited frenzy. $BTC Bitcoin is surging unstoppable, breaking above the $75,000 mark again after several months, with a daily increase of over 7% and a weekly surge exceeding 20%. This rally has fully ignited market sentiment and created one of the most intense "short squeezes" in recent years — the total liquidation amount across the network has surpassed $4 billion, with short losses reaching $3.7 billion, the highest since 2021.
Behind this surge is a "dream collaboration" of macroeconomic and regulatory tailwinds. The U.S. Treasury announced a significant expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, pushing down U.S. bond yields and opening liquidity gates for risk assets. Meanwhile, Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and others at the White House, urging Congress to advance the "CLARITY Act" for digital asset market regulation, fueling expectations for a friendlier regulatory environment. Bitcoin spot ETFs have also recorded massive net inflows for several consecutive days, with whales quietly accumulating during the downturn.
However, beneath the frenzy lie hidden risks. Liquidation data involving over 127,000 people reminds us that rallies driven by high leverage often come with intense volatility. After the short squeeze subsides, whether the market can sustain continuous buying is key to judging the return of the bull market. Staying rational amid the surge is essential to navigating the market steadily and for the long term.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX $ETH $XRP Reflections on the recent market trend: Has the bull run really returned?
Many people regard this rally as a bull market comeback, but I revise my view: this is more of a macro-driven corrective rebound rather than a trend reversal.
The US faces enormous pressure from its $40 trillion national debt, coinciding with the midterm elections. To prevent a debt market crash before the holidays, the Treasury has launched a $4 billion US debt buyback to support the market.
However, tens of billions are just a temporary booster compared to the massive debt, addressing symptoms but not the root cause, merely stabilizing the current market.
Under heavy debt pressure, the market judges that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to continue aggressive rate hikes, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields. Coupled with concerns over the dollar's creditworthiness, some safe-haven funds flow into gold and BTC, driving price rebounds. But all this remains at the expectation level without fundamental improvement.
Additionally, with the midterm elections approaching, fiscal and regulatory policies are highly uncertain. Institutions dislike uncertainty and tend to reduce positions to avoid risk. BTC is highly correlated with US stocks, making it difficult to have an independent major rally.
This round of gains comes from yield declines and capital games, not from rate cuts or a large influx of new funds.
You can participate in the rebound, but do not treat it as the start of a new bull market; be cautious of pullback risks from macro reversals.
Short-term outlook is bullish, but medium to long-term is bearish
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ A single day inflow of $400 million, full buyback and burn of HYPE: Hyperliquid has clearly mastered DeFi with this dimensionality reduction strike
The on-chain derivatives sector has just witnessed an extremely shocking liquidity frenzy.
According to the latest on-chain tracking by HyperliquidNews, the USDC supply on Hyperliquid surged by $249 million and $151 million respectively in a very short time, totaling nearly $400 million in a single day. Even more impactful is the news that the AQAv2 upgrade mechanism, scheduled to launch officially on August 26, will directly convert this massive capital deposit into real cash for token holders.
According to the official mechanism design, 90% of the risk-free income generated by Circle from Hyperliquid's total USDC reserves will be fully allocated to Hyperliquid, and 100% of this huge income will be directly used on the secondary market to **buy back and burn HYPE tokens**.
The destructive power of this closed loop is so enormous because it completely breaks the absurd fate of traditional DeFi protocols "working for the issuers."
For a long time, whether centralized exchanges or various decentralized contract protocols, the risk-free interest (annualized about 4.5% to 5%) from US Treasury bonds corresponding to billions or even tens of billions of stablecoin collateral deposited by users has all been quietly pocketed by stablecoin issuers like Circle or Tether.
Protocols bear security and operational costs, retail investors bear trading risks, while the richest and most stable real-world asset (RWA) actual returns have nothing to do with the ecosystem tokens.
Hyperliquid, leveraging its absolute order book trading volume and on-chain liquidity dominance, has forcibly reclaimed 90% of the underlying income distribution rights from the stablecoin issuance giants.
Let's do a terrifying real token economic calculation.
With this nearly $400 million capital inflow, the scale of USDC locked on Hyperliquid continues to expand. Assuming its stablecoin volume remains between $3 billion and $4 billion, based on current US Treasury yields, the underlying pure interest income can continuously generate $130 million to $180 million annually.
When this hundreds of millions of dollars in real cash every year is used to buy and burn HYPE daily on the secondary market at 100% rigid proportion at market price indiscriminately, it builds a "no-leverage perpetual long winding machine" completely detached from the overall market trend.
This is a world apart from traditional VC projects that rely on massive monthly inflation unlocks to frantically dump governance tokens to retail investors.
After the AQAv2 mechanism officially ignites on August 26, this positive reflexive flywheel of "trading depth expansion → stablecoin collateral deposit → US Treasury yield feedback → continuous secondary market deflationary burn" will officially start.
Facing Hyperliquid's dimensionality reduction approach that converts 100% of US Treasury risk-free interest into token deflation momentum, do you think other decentralized derivatives protocols can follow and replicate? Between inflationary pressure tokens and real yield burn tokens, how has your asset allocation focus changed?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 BNB/USDT Bullish Surge Update
BNB is surging strong at $BNB 675.1 (+3.10%), trading well above the upper Bollinger Band (UB: $651.2) with a bullish moving average stack (MA5 at $633.5).
Target 1: $686.3 (24h High)
Target 2: $710.0 (Psychological Level)
Key Support: $651.2 (Breakout Level)
Verdict: Strong upward trend! Holding above $651 opens a run toward $690–$710.#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #OKXOutcomeLeagueDutchGP 100,000 is still considered low, the market first turned off the volume
At 19:58, according to Cointelegraph, Standard Chartered research head Geoff Kendrick said the BTC year-end target of 100,000 "might be low" because ETF funds are recovering.
But at 20:27, BTC was 76,732, 24h +6.79%; volume shrank by 73.4%, OI dropped from 109,300 to 107,900. The target is high, but the money hasn't followed.
Don't chase for now. Only if volume increases and OI returns to 109,300 can the trend be considered continuing.
If volume shrinks in the next hour but BTC holds 76,000, do you judge it as strong turnover or a low-volume bull trap?
Crypto assets are high risk, this article does not constitute investment advice, purely personal opinion.
#OKX星球 #BTC$BTC Three days ago, Bitcoin was still at $64,100, but it once surged past $79,000, with over $4 billion liquidated across the network, shorts accounting for $3.7 billion, marking the most brutal short squeeze since 2021. Market sentiment switched overnight from fear (46) to greed (72). Three main drivers of the surge · Looser macro liquidity: The U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from 5.34% to 5.19%, the dollar dropped below 99, and funds flowed from bonds into Bitcoin. · Accelerated regulatory benefits: Trump hinted that the U.S. is considering buying Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, the SEC introduced new crypto financing regulations, shifting regulation from confrontation to a compliance framework. · Institutions rushing in: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $606 million in a single day, with four consecutive days of net inflows. Whales have accumulated over 46,000 BTC since June, and retail holdings are flowing into institutional hands. The $100,000 bet Standard Chartered is bullish on $100,000 by year-end, but SkyBridge Capital’s founder poured cold water—expecting $100,000 but possibly needing 20 more months. Fundstrat offers a more cautious forecast: an upside target around $83,200, with downside possibly touching $44,800. Key levels Resistance above: $80,000-$83,200 (technical target zone) Support below: $72,000 (pullback confirmation line), $66,600 (mid-term lifeline) After a 20% surge in three days, short-term overbought, correction likely $WMT 这份财报最值得看的，不只是营收继续增长，而是电商、广告和会员业务仍在保持较快扩张，同时公司还上调了全年收入和利润指引。不过，营业利润的高增长也受到关税退款等因素影响，不能简单理解为所有增长都来自经营基本面改善。 先看核心数据 沃尔玛2027财年第二季度总营收1879.37亿美元，同比增长5.9%；净销售额1861.00亿美元，同比增长5.9%。营业利润93.83亿美元，同比增长28.8%；GAAP每股收益0.80美元，调整后每股收益0.81美元。毛利率为25.4%，高于上年同期的24.5%。 表面上看，这是一份收入稳定、利润增长明显的财报。但净利润归属于沃尔玛股东为63.66亿美元，同比下降9.4%，主要受到其他收益和损失项目变化的影响。因此，这一季更适合重点看营业层面的经营表现和调整后指标，而不是只看净利润同比。 电商和广告仍是增长引擎 全球电商销售额同比增长23%，其中沃尔玛美国电商增长24%，沃尔玛国际增长19%，山姆会员店美国增长26%。从业务结构看，门店履约的配送和自提、第三方 marketplace，以及线上业务带来的规模效应，仍然是电商扩张的主要支撑。 广告业务At the White House meeting, everyone only saw the "positive news," but what I care more about is the word—discussion. Have you ever thought about, when "buying coins" turns from a slogan into a "discussion," who exactly is the market pricing for? On August 19, Trump met with the heads of Coinbase, Ripple, and Robinhood in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, personally saying that the government has already talked about whether to stockpile some Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Once this statement came out, the spot market remained calm, but the implied volatility on the options side quietly rose. My first reaction staring at the screen was not "wow, it's going up again," but rather—this sentence is actually answering a deeper question: can the pressure on the US dollar be relieved by crypto assets? Trump's exact words were that crypto can "significantly alleviate the pressure on the US dollar." Two years ago, if any presidential candidate said this, they would have been considered crazy. But today, SEC Chair Atkins nodded beside him, the GENIUS Act was signed, the Bitcoin strategic reserve was established, and CBDCs were banned. This whole set of moves actually points to a deeper narrative: the US no longer treats crypto as an enemy but as an external organ of the dollar system. Cross-market linkage becomes particularly subtle here. Look at gold—it has been fluctuating these days, the US dollar index hasn't moved much, but Risk On sentiment is transmitting back and forth between the US tech stock sector and crypto. BTC didn't surge, ETH didn't follow, but SOL is somewhat restless—this is the rhythm I observed: big money is waiting for legislation to be finalized, small money is rushing to seize expectations. BTC breaking through the $76,000 to $77,000 range triggers a revaluation of the US stock crypto chain, with $MSTR's net asset leverage elasticity higher than $COIN, which is driven by trading activity. The suppression from US Treasury yields and the US dollar is the core contradiction in the current cross-market transmission.
BTC has risen nearly 20% within a week, standing above $76,000-$77,000. The US stock crypto sector collectively rose in pre-market trading, with $MSTR up 9.6%, $COIN up 5.4%, and $HOOD up 4.8%. On August 19, when BTC first broke out significantly, $COIN's daily gain was about 10%, indicating that capital is accelerating pricing from crypto spot momentum to US stock equity assets.
In the ranking of driving factors, BTC spot breakout's direct pull on holding assets dominates, followed by exchange fundamentals' forecast of volume recovery, and third is cross-market risk appetite determined by the US dollar and gold trends. When the dollar weakens and US Treasury rates remain stable, $MSTR, centered on spot reserves, gains a higher risk premium, while $COIN's valuation recovery depends more on overall network trading activity and custody income realization.
If BTC completes turnover above $76,000 and continues to expand upward, while US Treasury yields fall supporting a bullish bias in the US stock market, a strong upward scenario will unfold. At this time, $MSTR maintains high Beta elasticity through net asset amplification, $COIN continues to attract buying through increased trading volume, and the return of retail risk appetite will also drive comprehensive targets like $HOOD. Signals that this scenario fails include a sharp rebound in US Treasury yields triggering a US stock pullback or BTC showing a long upper shadow with volume near $77,000.
If rising US Treasury yields strengthen the US dollar index, causing liquidity withdrawal from gold and crypto assets across markets, the market will enter a downward scenario. If BTC breaks below $76,000 support triggering high-level profit-taking, $MSTR will face more intense two-way volatility and liquidity squeeze due to high premiums, and $COIN will give back gains due to cooling volume expectations. The failure condition for this downward scenario is rising Fed rate cut expectations and sustained strong net inflows into BTC spot ETFs.
If $MSTR's premium rate continuously diverges from BTC price trends, or if the overall decline in US tech stocks drags down crypto concept stocks, the current cross-market logic will be directly broken. Once the US dollar index shows a strong phased rebound, the correction magnitude of US stock Crypto Beta assets often precedes that of crypto spot.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing whether the US dollar index and 10-year US Treasury yields impose macro pressure on the US stock crypto chain, while monitoring the turnover quality of BTC in the $76,000-$77,000 range and the sustained volume expansion of $COIN trading.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 Micron’s planned investment of about $10B over 10 years in a Boise research lab is more than a capacity story. Its focus on next-generation memory, Memory+Compute, advanced packaging and future chipmaking suggests the competitive edge in AI infrastructure may increasingly sit in integration, not simply in selling more memory.
My measured read: the strategy could support steadier demand and stronger margins if research converts into differentiated HBM, data-center memory and AI storage. But the sequencing matters; heavy spending before revenue catches up would leave cash flow, and storage valuations, exposed. Not advice, just analysis.
#Micron10BAIResearchThis surge really slapped me in the face. I thought a long sideways would definitely lead to a drop, but not only did it not fall, it surged so damn hard that my face is swollen.
Sideways for six weeks, according to old traders' habits, a long sideways means a drop, a dip to accumulate volume, and a cleanup of leveraged positions—that's the usual script for manipulative whales. I was even ready to buy below 60,000, but the script played out in reverse.
From 64,000 straight up to 72,000, and today it even touched 78,000 at the highest, shorts got bloodied for billions. This caught me completely off guard.
Since this is a short squeeze style surge, it definitely has to keep rising for a while. The logic is simple: shorts have been liquidated, stop-loss orders and FOMO buyers, plus the big money from ETFs are still pushing in, momentum is there. This happened in 2019 and 2023 too—after sideways consolidation, a breakout with a 15% to 40% rally before a pullback. Technically, the previous high resistance zone from 78K to 80K is the first major wall.
But this surge isn’t due to new on-chain capital flooding in; it’s just a combo of crowded shorts, White House/Treasury buybacks, and macro data shifts triggering the move. The daily RSI hit 83, and the 4-hour even soared to 93—this is historically extreme overbought territory, a sharp pullback to 69K or even 67K could come anytime to shake people out.
What’s even crazier now: besides $BTC, even $ETH, $XRP, and altcoins are all surging. What kind of bull market is this? A real bull market starts with Bitcoin rising first, sucking liquidity, then rotating—there’s no logic in everything going crazy together.
I missed the Bitcoin boat, do you think it will come back for me to get on?London spot gold surged nearly 5% in just three days, holding above the $4500 mark, reaching a high of $4522, setting a new phase high. The core catalyst for this strong precious metals rally is the U.S. Treasury's policy to increase long-term bond repurchases.
On August 19, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced doubling the single repurchase size of 10-30 year U.S. Treasuries to $4 billion, signaling room for further expansion. Previously, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to a nearly 19-year high, but after the policy implementation, long-term rates quickly fell, the dollar weakened simultaneously, and gold prices jumped $188 in one day, directly breaking through the key $4500 resistance level. The full transmission logic is clear: Treasury supports long bonds → Treasury yields decline → dollar weakens → dollar-denominated gold experiences a significant rise.
Morgan Stanley's outlook is even more optimistic, predicting that after gold breaks $4450, it could challenge $5000 around 2027.
Even if gold stands above $4500, blind chasing of the rally is not advisable. The July FOMC minutes were generally hawkish, with several officials stating that as long as inflation has not fallen to the 2% target, there remains room for rate hikes. Next week at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers hawkish remarks, chasing at high levels will face significant correction pressure.
The deep-rooted issues of fiscal deficits and excess debt supply remain unresolved. The long-term trend for gold is upward, but short-term volatility risks increase, so trading rhythm needs to be managed cautiously. $BTC $ETH $OKB #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Today I reviewed the batch of Alpha coins that have no spot market, only USDT perpetual contracts, totaling 207. Looking at the long-short structure, 51 coins have large holders clearly more bullish than retail investors, but 87 are inverted—retail investors are more bullish than large holders. I think this ratio is quite telling.
The most extreme case is AT, with large holders skewed 10.95 times, but the position size is only $9 million. HUMA is 8.54 times, $12 million. KITE is 6.16 times, $18 million. In other words, the market is too thin; a few million dollars can twist the structure like this. It’s not really a consensus, more like a few positions propping up the scene.
The entire sector has $1.386 billion in positions. Among 204 coins, 21 have dropped more than 70% from their 90-day highs, with a median drop of 40%. Given the 87 inverted structures, I lean bearish—the more retail investors buy in unison, the less support there is for a rebound.This round of the crypto market rally is essentially an extreme differentiation structural trend dominated by top core assets. The new incremental funds entering from outside the market are almost all concentrated in established leaders like $BTC and $ETH, which have deeply rooted consensus, as well as newly popular tokens with fresh breakout narratives. The vast majority of marginal coins without new stories or sustained backing from large capital can’t even get a sip of liquidity dividends.
The major market indices have been rising steadily, with $HYPE and $LIT consecutively experiencing multi-level explosive rallies. Many retail investors are caught in the illusion of a broad market rally and nervously pour money into low-position, less popular small coins, fearing missing out on this wave. But reality douses cold water directly: $KAITO just announced its platform listing, which according to past positive catalyst logic should have triggered a heat rally, yet the market is so quiet that it’s almost impossible to find active buy orders. Even the most basic capital support is completely cut off, and it hasn’t benefited at all from this round’s market rally. #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 Brother Billion lost more than 10 million USD in one hour of review
It's terrifying What should those who shorted or missed out do now?
You can refer to what happened after the initial spikes in the previous two cycles.
In 2019, the bottom didn't give any chance for a pullback to exit; it rallied, consolidated on the platform for a while, then surged 4x straight ahead.
In the last cycle bottom of 2023, after the initial spike, it rallied for over a month, then pulled back 20%, giving shorts a chance to exit and bulls to enter, but it quickly pushed back to new highs.
I don't know how this cycle will go. I only know that many have missed out this time. The article I quoted explains the reasons. So if there is a pullback, I expect those who missed out and short positions stopping losses will be quickly bought up. At the same time, my view is that Q4 will see a pullback in the US stock market, but by then if BTC has already reached a relatively high level, shorts might already be trapped.
That's how bear bottoms work. A two to three month window to enter determines the beta returns for the next three years. Many positions that miss the ride once find it hard to catch up. I don't plan to move my spot holdings for at least the next two years; if there's a pullback opportunity, I'll add more.
$BTC $ETH $OKB The new AI king is emerging?
The true heavyweight player in the AI track is about to enter the public capital market.
This leading company deeply engaged in large models is sprinting toward a historically rare IPO scale, aiming directly to challenge the fundraising benchmark just set by $SPCX, intending to break the record in one go. On one side, SPCX holds tangible space infrastructure and visible launch orders, serving as a capital model of real hard technology; on the other side, the old rival $OPENAI, although having already started IPO preparations, chose to slow down and postpone its debut until 2027, effectively handing over the window for the "first AI IPO" this round to Anthropic to take the lead. This is not just a difference in listing schedules but a sophisticated capital game between the two AI giants: Anthropic moves first to establish market pricing power; OpenAI waits for the right moment to avoid rushing into a valuation pressure period.
Supporting this capital drama is a visible leap in commercialization: a steeply rising revenue curve and phased operating profits turning positive, proving that native large models are no longer just lab technology but have become monetizable productivity tools.
The market often points to past huge losses, but the underlying logic of AI is different. The large upfront investment is essentially to build a moat for computing power infrastructure and model capabilities. The upstream computing power supply chain also welcomes incremental expectations accordingly. Optical module and device manufacturers like Zhongji Xuchuang, New Easun, and Tianfu Communications, as the "shovel sellers" of computing infrastructure, are expected to benefit from this expansion rhythm; application-side targets connected to the Claude ecosystem, such as BlueFocus and Yidian Tianxia, will also see sentiment catalysts.
Its core advantage is rooted in the enterprise service market, winning a large number of paying customers with long-text and complex task processing capabilities, carving out a differentiated monetization path.
If this IPO lands, its significance goes far beyond a massive financing round. It will prove to the market that top-tier self-developed large model companies have crossed the commercialization validation threshold. Capital bets not only on the growth of a single company but also on the industrial discourse power of the next-generation general AI.
The second half of the large model competition officially shifts from closed-door R&D to value realization in the public market. The new king emerges, and a new valuation benchmark for the AI industry may be born from this.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX This move actually sends a pretty solid signal.
In the past, when people talked about AI hardware, especially storage, no matter how well the story was told, it was basically still in the "burning money to expand production" stage, painting a future promise. But now, with SK Hynix and Samsung starting to spend real money on buybacks and even large-scale share cancellations, what does this indicate? It means the cash flow on the books has genuinely returned. The dividends brought by AI are no longer just attractive numbers on financial reports but have turned into tangible profits in the pocket.
This is quite a big shock to those concepts in the market.
Currently, especially in the crypto space, various AI projects and DePIN concepts are flying everywhere; some do have substance, while others are purely storytelling. SK Hynix's 28.6 billion buyback move acts like a weather vane, telling the market: only hard assets that generate real revenue can withstand the test of time. Projects that rely solely on PPT fundraising without actual implemented scenarios may have a tough time ahead, as capital will eventually vote with its feet.
Back to the capital flow, especially regarding "the big pie" (Bitcoin) and the flow of funds in South Korea.
In the short term, this is indeed a negative factor. Think about it, a lot of hot money in South Korea used to like to fight in the crypto market, but now storage stocks are crazily paying dividends to shareholders, and the returns seem much more stable than trading crypto. At this time, surely some of the Korean funds originally in the crypto market will be attracted back to the stock market to collect dividends.
#Brothers, good evening. During the day, FIL was still at 0.77, but looking at it tonight, wow, it really has stood above that level. In the past 24 hours, FIL has risen 16.7%, with an intraday high of $0.77. Since the lowest point of 0.61 on August 18, this rebound has accumulated a 26% increase. The total market cap has reached $582 million, ranking 37th in market cap. Someone asked, "Is FIL about to take off?" My answer is: don't rush, first look at who led the gains today—XRP rose 24%, HYPE 19.4%, ENA 18.8%, PUMP 18.6%. FIL's 16.7% rise among these explosive gainers is more like "following the big brothers to get a meal." But on the other hand, being able to follow the big brothers means there's still a seat for you at the table, which is better than being kicked out of the group chat. Now, let's talk fundamentals. There's an important piece of news today—Goldman Sachs released a report saying AI infrastructure construction will cost $7.6 trillion by 2031, but storage hardware costs were not included. Hard drive prices have skyrocketed, yet Filecoin's storage price remains $2.5/TiB, using an already established distributed network, so it doesn't have to compete with AI companies for hard drives. Others are fighting over hardware, while you are using idle resources—if the market recognizes this logic, FIL's story will be more than just a "storage sector recovery." Additionally, the Solstice proposal (FIP-0118) community discussion continues to heat up. The core idea is to directly allocate a portion of block rewards to those who bring paying customers $BABA 这份财报不能只看营收增长，也不能只看净利润大幅下降。更准确的判断是：AI云业务正在加速，云业务利润率也明显改善，但公司为了抢占 AI 基础设施和产品机会，技术投入、资本开支和现金流压力同时上升。 先看核心数据 截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日季度，阿里巴巴总营收为 2689.53 亿元，同比增长 9%；经营利润为 151.61 亿元，同比下降 57%；净利润为 104.44 亿元，同比下降 75%。Non-GAAP 净利润为 207.15 亿元，同比下降 38%。营收还在增长，但利润端明显弱于收入端，主要受到技术投入、商誉减值和相关计提等因素影响。 AI云成为最强增长引擎 AI Cloud and Compute Services 收入为 484.37 亿元，同比增长 45%，外部客户收入增速也达到 45%。其中，AI 相关产品收入为 123.76 亿元，已经连续第 12 个季度实现三位数同比增长。分部调整后 EBITA 为 56.28 亿元，同比增长 133%，调整后 EBITA 率达到 12%。 这说明阿里云的 AI 叙事已经不只是算力投入，而是开始同时体现为收入增Ethereum's Comeback Journey: 4 Lessons for Ordinary People
⚠️Content is only a historical review of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice
Many people only know that ETH is the second largest by market cap, but they don't know it has faced multiple near-collapse moments along the way. From a whitepaper written by a teenager, it has stumbled and grown into the foundational base of the entire Web3. Understanding its ups and downs is more important than simply betting on price movements.
1. Germination: An Undervalued Experimental Project
In 2013, 19-year-old Vitalik wrote the Ethereum whitepaper, proposing the concept of a world computer: Bitcoin could only transfer value, but Ethereum could run smart contracts, allowing blockchain to run various applications.
In 2014, a crowdfunding campaign raised funds by exchanging Bitcoin for ETH. At that time, most of the Bitcoin community was skeptical, thinking the new project was too abstract and overly ambitious.
In July 2015, the mainnet launched with very few early developers. It was just a niche technical experiment without large-scale applications, prices were low, and few realized its future potential.
2. Life-or-Death Crisis: Hacker Theft in the First Year Almost Ended It
In 2016, the major security incident of The DAO occurred, where hackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to steal 3.6 million ETH, worth tens of millions of dollars at the time.
The market panicked, and the coin price was halved. The community erupted in a huge debate: since blockchain pursues immutability, should there be a hard fork to roll back transactions and recover losses?
After the debate, the vast majority chose a hard fork to recover the stolen assets, which also split off Ethereum Classic (ETC).
This was Ethereum's darkest hour, with widespread pessimism and many declaring the project dead, but the community survived the governance crisis and lived on.
3. First Boom: ICO Bubble, Instant Fame (2017)
The ERC-20 token standard was born, countless new projects issued tokens on Ethereum, and the ICO wave swept the entire crypto market.
ETH surged from single digits, firmly establishing itself as the second largest cryptocurrency.
But the bubble burst quickly. The 2018 bear market arrived, countless ICO projects went to zero, ETH plummeted 90% from its peak, network congestion and high gas fees were magnified, and criticism flooded back.
4. Bear Market Consolidation: Bubble Fades, Real Ecosystem Begins to Grow (2018-2020)
The bull market bubble faded, speculative funds left, and developers stayed to focus on building.
DeFi began to sprout, with lending and decentralized exchanges gradually launching; NFT standards took shape.
Outsiders still complained about Ethereum's slowness and high fees, but the underlying infrastructure quietly iterated, preparing for the next big market cycle.
5. Two Major Narratives Ignite, Leading to Historic Highlights (2020-2021)
1. DeFi Summer: lending, swaps, liquidity mining exploded, with massive funds flowing on-chain;
2. NFT wave: CryptoKitties and profile picture NFTs went viral, bringing Ethereum into the public eye.
EIP-1559 launched, implementing a fee-burning mechanism, giving ETH deflationary properties, and the price hit a historic high of $4,878.
6. Epic Upgrade: The Merge, Completing the Shift from Mining to Staking (2022)
The years-long The Merge was completed, bidding farewell to GPU mining and switching to PoS staking consensus, reducing energy consumption by 99%, sharply cutting ETH issuance, and officially forming the deflation narrative.
The upgrade process was not smooth, with multiple delays and strong opposition from miners, but it was implemented under great pressure. Subsequent Cancun upgrades pushed Layer 2 scaling, solving the long-standing high fee problem.
7. Review: Ethereum's Comeback and Lessons for Ordinary People
1. There is no eternal god; even great projects have faced multiple near-death moments. ETH endured hacker attacks, bear market crashes, and delayed upgrades, not rising smoothly but surviving crisis after crisis.
2. True value comes from the ecosystem, not mere hype stories. Its strength lies in DeFi, NFT, stablecoins, Layer 2, and thousands of developers continuously building together, not a single concept.
3. Bull markets are results, not starting points. The surges in 2017 and 2021 came from years of technical consolidation during bear markets. Many only see the later glory and ignore the long early struggles when no one cared.
4. Technical roadmaps won't be smooth; upgrades will be delayed and controversial. Focus on long-term implementation results, don't be scared off by short-term negatives or blindly brainwashed by hype.
ETH's current status did not come out of nowhere. It tells us: sector narratives are important, but the underlying logic of long-term comebacks is surviving crises, continuous iteration, and ecosystem growth.
$ETH #Ethereum #Web3#Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
Previously, everyone compared which AI was smarter; now it feels like the competition is about which is more valuable.
If Anthropic really proceeds with the IPO as the market expects this time, the significance may not just be another AI company going public, but the entire AI industry finally facing the "test" of the public market.
The latest news shows Anthropic is preparing for a potentially record-breaking IPO, with market valuation expectations pushed to around $2 trillion, far exceeding previous private market valuations. Reuters recently reported that the company’s 2028 revenue target is about $190 billion to $200 billion, while as of the end of July, its annualized revenue run rate has already exceeded $65 billion.
This is the core logic behind the market’s willingness to give it a high valuation now.
It’s not about how much it earns now, but pricing in growth for the next few years in advance.
Anthropic’s biggest advantage is very fast growth in enterprise customers. AI is no longer just a chat tool; more and more companies are truly integrating models into programming, office, and business systems. But the problem is also very real: computing power, chips, electricity, and model training are all tangible costs. Moreover, with OpenAI, Google, and open-source models constantly catching up, whether profit margins can continue to improve is the real issue to face after the IPO.
Personally, I think this Anthropic IPO is more like a watershed moment.
In the past, AI company valuations were high, and people could say it was just private market money telling stories.
But once it enters the public market, every day there will be people pricing it with real money.
If Anthropic can sustain its high valuation, the entire AI industry chain may continue to benefit, with computing power, chips, and data centers further elevated.
But if the market starts to question growth speed and cost pressures after the IPO, it could also cool down the currently crazy AI valuations.
In short, Anthropic’s IPO is not just about going public.
It’s more like asking a question on behalf of the entire AI industry:
Is AI really worth this much?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK This round of the crypto market is essentially an extreme structural rally dominated by top core assets. Off-exchange incremental funds are almost entirely concentrated in consensus coins like $BTC and $ETH, as well as popular new coins with fresh explosive narratives. The vast majority of marginal coins without new stories or funding support are left behind.
The market indices have been rising steadily, with $HYPE and $LIT surging several times over. Many retail investors are misled by the broad rally illusion and rush into unpopular small coins, fearing missing out on the rally. But reality is a cold shower: $KAITO just launched and, according to past patterns, should have seen a wave of positive price action. Instead, the market is so quiet that active buy orders are almost nonexistent, and even basic buy support is completely missing. It hasn’t caught any of the current market’s upward momentum at all. #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 Coinglass data shows that nearly 200,000 people worldwide were liquidated in 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $3.343 billion. Short position liquidations exceeded $3 billion.
Over $1 billion worth of short positions were forcibly closed within one hour.
This is the largest wave of short liquidations since 2021.
At the same time, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $517 million in a single day. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $285 million. The total daily inflow into crypto ETFs reached $706 million.
This is no coincidence.
This is a perfect resonance between policy expectations and short position structure.
So, what does this rally really mean?
Some say it's a short squeeze. Some say it's a technical rebound.
But I think something bigger is happening.
If the US really starts including BTC as a national reserve asset—the valuation model of this market will be completely rewritten.
What was BTC's narrative before? "Digital gold," "inflation hedge," "safe haven asset."
Now? "National strategic reserve asset."
When a country's executive branch openly discusses "large-scale purchases" of an asset—the pricing logic of that asset is no longer determined by retail and institutional investors.
Sovereign buying is on another level.
$75,000? It might just be the starting point of a new paradigm.
But note—
Trump said "discussion," not "execution."
No plan, no funding source, no timeline.
Policy expectations can ignite the market, but implementation is the guarantee of the trend.
On September 15, the Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act.
That will be the real test.