Orbit Post Sitemap
🔥 BTC surged 18% in three days! Bears are bleeding heavily, but don't celebrate too soon...
Bitcoin just broke through $75,000! In the past 72 hours, it violently jumped from $64,100, reaching a high of $77,800, causing over 180,000 liquidations. Bears lost $4 billion in two days, with screams echoing through Wall Street. 😱
What’s driving this wave? Trump voiced strong support for the CLARITY Act, the U.S. Treasury quietly injected money to suppress the dollar, and bears were pushed into a corner—once the price broke the 200-day moving average, it triggered an "epic short squeeze," even forming a "head and shoulders bottom" reversal pattern. The technicals have indeed turned bullish, but the 4-hour RSI soared above 93, clearly overbought in the short term. 🥵
The real test is next: the short squeeze ammo is running low, and upward momentum must rely on ETF retail investors to take over. The ETF just saw a net inflow of $517 million the day before yesterday, hitting a three-and-a-half-month high, which is a good sign. But don’t forget, the big ETF players’ average cost is still $82,465, so entering now means being trapped. It’s hard to get them to keep putting money in. Corporate buying is also quiet, and Strategy’s old script of "buying coins on borrowed money" hasn’t restarted yet.
$BTC $SHIB $DOGE
Support is first seen at 73,000-74,000; if that doesn’t hold, it will drop back to 70,000; resistance above is a solid 80,000. Sellers are running out of steam, and historical experience says holding for a year could double your money—but the premise is that new money must truly come in. 🤑
Short-term volatility is inevitable, don’t chase the highs, keep an eye on ETF inflows and institutional moves. The winds are strong and the waves are rough; survival is key to the bull run. ⚡️#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 BTC suddenly surged these days. On the surface, it looks like an emotional ignition after breaking through $70,000, but fundamentally it is the collision of policy expectations, liquidity trading, and capital inflows.
First, looking at the macro level. The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of liquidity-supporting repos for some long-term government bonds, which the market immediately interpreted as a possible easing of pressure in the U.S. Treasury market and an expected improvement in the valuation environment for risk assets. Note, this is not direct money printing, but it reinforces the market's expectation of marginal liquidity easing.
Next, on the policy side. The White House met with the crypto industry, and the SEC proposed a new exemption framework for crypto asset issuance, leading capital to start trading ahead on the expectation of a regulatory warming in the U.S. For the crypto market, the most valuable aspect is not just the positive news itself, but the reduction of uncertainty.
Finally, capital verification. The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $517 million, indicating this wave is not all retail FOMO; after breaking key levels, short covering further amplified the gains.
Policy is the fuse, liquidity expectations are the oxygen. But the short-term surge is too rapid; don’t mistake a short squeeze for trend confirmation. Going forward, the focus will be on whether ETF inflows can continue and whether the dollar and long-term interest rates will continue to cooperate with $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Bitcoin's strong breakout has driven a recovery across the entire crypto market. Ethereum has surged over 20% in two days, successfully surpassing $2000; major altcoins like Solana have also generally recorded double-digit gains.
The total market capitalization of the crypto market has sharply rebounded within just three trading days, with market sentiment quickly shifting from fear to greed. $BTC
(Market dominance) increased in the early stages of the rally, but as the capital overflow effect became apparent, altcoins began to take over the upward momentum.
Meanwhile, the decoupling phenomenon between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets is noteworthy. Against the backdrop of a flat performance in the US stock market, Bitcoin's independent strength indicates that its digital gold safe-haven attribute and anti-inflation narrative are regaining recognition from institutional funds. Pi Network is making meaningful progress on the infrastructure side. Protocol 26 has already been deployed, while Protocol 27 is planned as the final upgrade of this cycle. Pi’s official channel has also confirmed the Protocol 26 upgrade deadline as 11/8. But the bigger story is the integration hype 👀 PayPal: A notable development is that PayPal’s official developer documentation now shows Pi Network (PI) among supported cryptocurrencies. RoboPay: Fabric Foundation has announced RoboPay, a paymIs the bull market back? Wrong question again. Everyone's asking this like it's binary. It's not different assets are answering differently right now. Gold just ripped $1.3T in combined market cap after this morning's Treasury news. AMD's still below both EMAs, digesting its biggest run this year. Yields are the highest since 2007-2008. That's not "bull market back" that's capital rotating hard into hard assets while growth names catch their breath. If crypto is genuinely the last domino in this$BTC strongly breaks through $78,000, driving a major rally in the crypto market. In the past 24 hours, BTC has risen over 9%, hitting a recent high; Ethereum has surpassed $2,400, $SOL broke through $90, and most major coins strengthened simultaneously.
This round of gains is accompanied by large-scale short liquidations. Data shows that the total liquidation amount across the market in 24 hours exceeded $800 million, with short liquidations accounting for about $670 million, nearly 80%. BTC and ETH were the main liquidation targets, causing a clear short squeeze in the market.
Capital flows also signal positivity. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow exceeding $500 million in a single day, with institutional funds returning; the Ethereum ETF also recorded significant inflows, market sentiment noticeably warming, and the total crypto market cap has climbed back above $2.5 trillion.
On the macro front, the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, viewed by the market as a "mini QE" signal. Long-term Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, supporting risk assets. Additionally, Trump is pushing forward the CLARITY Act process, further boosting market expectations for improved US digital asset regulatory environment.
However, it should be noted that part of this rally’s momentum comes from short squeezes. As short positions decrease, whether the rally can continue will depend on genuine buying interest and sustained institutional capital inflows. Whether $78,000 can become a new support level will be a key short-term observation point. $ETH
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Current core news breakdown $BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 【Bullish Factors】 1. U.S. Treasury stabilizes bond market operations The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, improving U.S. Treasury liquidity, causing long-term Treasury yields to fall and the dollar index to weaken, which led to a collective rebound in risk assets, gold, and crypto assets. This is the macro trigger for the current major rebound. The market interprets this as a disguised liquidity relief, not QE, but a temporary liquidity adjustment with limited long-term effects. 2. SEC's new crypto regulatory proposal launched The SEC introduced a crypto asset regulatory proposal, setting two tiers of financing exemptions plus safe harbor clauses, providing compliant financing paths for small and medium projects. The industry sees regulatory certainty expectations, boosting sentiment. The proposal is still in the 60-day public comment period and has not yet officially taken effect. 3. Concentrated short liquidations in derivatives, short squeeze rally Previously, the market accumulated a large number of short positions. After price broke key resistance, massive short covering was triggered, with passive buying pushing the rally. The 24-hour short liquidation scale approached $3 billion, releasing short-term buying power rapidly. BTC spot ETFs saw large single-day net inflows, with institutional funds returning in phases, not sustained large-scale inflows. 4. Market risk appetite recovery U.S. stocks and gold rose simultaneously, risk appetite warmed, leading to BTC rally, then funds spread to large-cap altcoins, lifting overall market capitalization. 【Bearish Factors】 1. Fed meeting minutes hawkish, rate cut expectations fluctuate Latest meeting minutes show#Anthropic plans to publicly disclose IPO documents by the end of August, with fundraising potentially matching SpaceX. Anthropic's Q2 revenue has already exceeded $11.5 billion, with an annualized revenue of $65 billion in July, and adjusted profits have turned positive. The company confidentially submitted the S-1 draft to the SEC in June and is currently preparing to publicly disclose the IPO documents as early as the end of August. SpaceX raised about $75 billion at its IPO, or approximately $86.2 billion including the overallotment, setting a record in U.S. stock market history. Anthropic's goal is to match or even surpass this figure.
However, the other side of the ledger is equally striking.
The net loss for the full year 2025 is close to $42 billion, five times the $8.3 billion loss in 2024. The computing power agreement signed with SpaceX could be worth hundreds of billions over three years. On one hand, revenue is surging; on the other, losses are expanding simultaneously—Anthropic's IPO pricing controversy lies not only in revenue growth but also in the cost structure of computing power, the loss timeline, and customer concentration.
In the short term, if the public documents reveal revenue and cash flow progress better than expected, it may drive sentiment recovery for AI chips and data center-related assets. If the scale of losses or customer concentration exceeds expectations, it could amplify the market's overall scrutiny of AI's high valuation. In the medium term, if Anthropic successfully lists at a high valuation, it will validate the commercialization path of "AI infrastructure + enterprise services" and provide a valuation anchor for unlisted AI companies..$ANTHROPIC $BTC $SNDK On August 21, $BTC saw $1.05 billion in 24-hour short liquidations, with the short squeeze multiplier plummeting from the previous peak of 15.9x to 4.32x — indicating that short positions in the market are being rapidly eliminated. WoofunAI's analysis hits the mark: short covering can quickly push prices higher but struggles to independently sustain a prolonged rally; subsequent active capital is needed to take over.
Fortunately, institutional funds are indeed starting to step in: on August 19, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of $517 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows and the largest single-day inflow in three and a half months; on August 20, BTC ETFs saw another net inflow of 6,603 BTC (approximately $472 million), with a 7-day cumulative net inflow of 11,149 BTC. BlackRock's IBIT attracted $284.7 million in a single day, accounting for 55% of the inflow.
However, this is precisely the most dangerous moment for high-leverage long positions: the short squeeze momentum is waning, and whether ETF funds can continue to support remains to be seen. The error tolerance for 100x leverage (1.1%) is far lower than the daily volatility of ETF fund flows. It is recommended to immediately close 70% of positions at market price to lock in most profits; the remaining 30% should have a hard stop loss moved up to 76,000 (above the entry price). If the price falls below this level, it indicates ETF support has failed and shorts are counterattacking, triggering an automatic full close by the system.
$ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX $SKHY SK Hynix 40 trillion won buyback—not a handout, but a fear of big shareholders running away
40 trillion won buyback + cancellation, the money AI earned is immediately distributed to shareholders.
$SAMSUNG Samsung might follow suit, reportedly planning a 100 trillion won level return plan.
Why? The stock price has dropped sharply; SK Hynix has fallen nearly half from its peak, and Samsung isn’t doing much better. Big shareholders are stuck and can’t take it anymore, ready to walk away at any time—the company has to use buybacks and dividends to keep shareholders at the table.
If shareholders are determined to leave, the stock price will crash directly. When institutions sell off, retail investors follow in a stampede, and the whole market can’t hold. The current buyback and cancellation are to stabilize these big shareholders.
Telling them: "Don’t leave, you haven’t lost money, the profits are shared with you."
AI has indeed made the company a lot of money, and cash flow has improved, but honestly, the buyback isn’t out of gratitude to shareholders—it’s to prevent you from running away, because if you run, the stock price can’t hold.
Whether the money AI earned is enough to simultaneously fund expansion and buybacks is the final key calculation. But for now, the priority is to keep the big shareholders. This isn’t charity, it’s the brake pad.🛞
#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 $KORU USDT is one of the strongest movers shown in the market snapshot, trading around 20.81 with a gain of 4.05%. The displayed activity is approximately $100.2M, while the reference price is near 20.8023.
A move above 4% immediately puts KORUUSDT on the momentum radar. What matters now is whether buyers can protect the current price area after the initial surge. Strong percentage gains often bring increased attention, but they can also create rapid reversals when momentum starts weakening.
The 20.81 region is therefore worth watching closely. If buyers continue defending this area, another push higher could develop. If sellers step in aggressively, the current gain could start disappearing quickly.
For me, the interesting part is the combination of price strength and visible market activity. KORUUSDT isn't quietly moving; it's already attracting attention.
The next decisive move could determine whether this becomes continuation or another short-lived spike.
#PopMartEarningsWatch #TreasuryUpsBuybacks #CLARITYRewardDebate #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
On August 20, Pop Mart released its performance report for the first half of 2026.
Revenue reached ¥17.173 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, but below the market estimate of ¥19.98 billion.
Net profit was ¥5.038 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year, also below the market estimate of ¥6.64 billion.
Gross margin was 69.7%, slightly down from 70.3% in the same period last year.
Founder Wang Ning candidly stated at the earnings meeting: "The first half of this year has been quite special for us. The pressure was indeed much greater than we expected, and we faced many difficulties and challenges that we had not anticipated before."
He positioned 2026 as a "year of consolidation," clearly indicating that the pressure in the second half will be greater than in the first half, and it is highly likely that the 20% growth target set at the beginning of the year will not be achieved this year.
The net profit growth rate significantly lags behind revenue growth — revenue increased by 23.8%, while net profit only grew by 10.1%. Profit has not kept pace with revenue, indicating a decline in the quality of growth. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
The structural changes at the IP level are the most noteworthy highlight of this earnings report.
The market's long-standing biggest concern about Pop Mart has been its over-reliance on the single IP LABUBU. This period's data shows that this pattern is undergoing significant change.
The leading IP THE MONSTERS (including LABUBU) generated revenue of ¥4.454 billion, still ranking first, but down 7.5% year-over-year.
This is a cyclical phenomenon reflecting the return of blockbuster IPs' popularity to normal levels, not a deterioration in operational capability.
The explosive growth of new IPs is striking—Twinkle Twinkle surpassed ¥2.65 billion in revenue in half a year, soaring 580.6% year-over-year, instantly becoming the company's second largest IP.
CRYBABY, DIMOO, and SKULLPANDA recorded revenues of ¥1.63 billion, ¥1.62 billion, and ¥1.5 billion respectively, with six major IPs each exceeding ¥1 billion in revenue. Eleven artist IPs generated over ¥100 million each.
The "one dominant, many strong" model is transitioning to "multiple strong contenders." The replicability of the IP incubation system has been preliminarily validated, significantly thickening the company's safety net against the decline in popularity of any single IP.
However, LABUBU's decline is real. Whether new IPs can continue to take over depends on their sustainability in the coming quarters. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
The overseas market constitutes the biggest concern for this period's performance. Revenue in the Asia-Pacific region fell 9.7% year-on-year to ¥2.58 billion, while revenue in the Americas dropped 16.5% year-on-year to ¥1.89 billion.
Pop Mart attributes the decline to the "waning of external traffic dividends" and the "core IP heat returning to normal."
Online channels were particularly weak—Asia-Pacific online revenue plummeted 39.8%, and Americas online revenue decreased 45.6%.
The Chinese market became the most important support. Revenue in China increased from ¥8.28 billion to ¥12.20 billion, a year-on-year growth of 47.3%, with revenue share rising from 59.7% to 71.0%.
Online channel revenue grew 62.7% year-on-year to ¥4.78 billion, with the blind box machine app increasing 83.3% to ¥2.06 billion.
Offline channels are also expanding; retail stores in the Americas grew from 41 to 86, and in Europe from 18 to 45. As of the end of June, the total number of global stores reached 676.
After opening new areas in the amusement park, foot traffic exceeded expectations, more than doubling month-on-month, with over 25% coming from night tour projects.
The company chooses to trade short-term profits for long-term channel health and innovation space in business formats.
Overseas markets have contracted, domestic markets have held up, and new business formats are being tested. Pop Mart is seeking growth paths for the post-LABUBU era during this "rest period."Luckily I ran fast, that Pop Mart spike almost killed me
I saw that Pop Mart spike with my own eyes. It dropped straight from 19.10 to 17.93. Fortunately, I got out, or I would have blown up
Good thing I ran fast, if I had left a bit later, I'd be up on the mountain top now, just watching the wind.
The earnings data can't support this price—revenue up 23.8%, profit only up 10.1%, revenue growth without profit growth, LABUBU cooling down, Star People taking over, overseas business still declining, inventory and profit margins under pressure. With these fundamentals, a spike like this is not surprising at all.
In comparison, BTC and ETH are still better. $BTC went from 66000 to 78000, $ETH from 2000 to 2400, clear direction and steady trend, making money while just holding. Stocks like Pop Mart, once the money leaves, it leaves without much talk, and the spikes are much harsher than BTC.
This time I’m lucky to have run. Rather than being anxious with stocks like this, it’s better to honestly follow the trend with BTC and ETH, at least you can sleep well. ⚡️
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #Anthropic plans to file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
Anthropic's IPO is imminent, with a trillion-dollar valuation about to face scrutiny from global investors.
A company founded only five years ago aims to match the largest IPO fundraising record in human history. But behind this ambition lies a harsh ledger.
A net loss of $42 billion is expected in 2025, five times the $8.3 billion loss of the previous year.
The core driver of the expanding losses is computing power costs—Anthropic's computing resource supply agreement with SpaceX could be worth tens of billions of dollars over the next three years, and there are multiple similar agreements. OpenAI is also facing similar cost pressures during the same period; the entire AI large model industry is dealing with extremely high expenses from the computing power arms race.
Anthropic believes it can achieve operational profitability in 2026, but while revenue grows rapidly, capital expenditures and operating losses are also expanding in tandem.
The market will provide the answer with real money during the IPO process—whether the trillion-dollar valuation is a reasonable price for the AI era or the biggest bubble in the capital expenditure race.
This IPO, one of the largest in the history of global capital markets, is itself the ultimate stress test for AI track business models.
#Anthropic plans to file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX Two days of broad gains—Is this the start of rotation or the peak of sentiment?
The performance of the top 100 by market cap indeed marks one of the rare broad rallies this year.
The most obvious change is not that a single coin surged dramatically, but that capital is beginning to spread from isolated rallies to multiple sectors.
First, Meme tokens are active again
BOME, PEOPLE, NEIRO, PUMP, PENGU, WIF, PNUT, TURBO, and others all appear among the top gainers.
One Meme token rising might be news-driven;
a group of Meme tokens rallying together reflects a recovering market risk appetite.
Second, long-dormant old coins are collectively moving
ONT, GAS, QTUM, NEO, and even STEEM have entered strong zones.
These older projects from 2017–2021 moving together indicate that capital is no longer satisfied chasing a few hot narratives but is spreading toward low-level, high-volatility assets.
Third, clear linkage appears in the $BTC ecosystem
STX, ORDI, 1000SATS are strengthening simultaneously.
If only one project rises, it can be attributed to individual coin logic; several projects in the same sector strengthening together signals sector rotation.
Fourth, DeFi is also taking over
ENA, OSMO, CRV, LISTA, RSR, and others are also showing active performance.
Fifth, and what I consider most important—the large-cap coins are joining in
$XRP and $ADA both strengthen.
This is a completely different concept from a pure small-cap rally.
If only high-volatility coins like ONG, BOME, NEIRO are surging, it only indicates speculative sentiment has returned. But when large-cap coins, DeFi, the BTC ecosystem, Meme tokens, and even old coins all start rotating,
this shows the market’s risk appetite is expanding from localized activity to a broader scope.
What’s truly worth noting these two days is a phenomenon we haven’t seen for a long time:
Money is starting to flow in different directions.
Of course, two days of broad gains are not enough to prove the market has completed a trend switch.
What we really need to watch next is whether this sector rotation can sustain, and whether strong coins can maintain relative strength after the next market pullback.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $ONDO Two suggestions to empower the value of ondo tokens: 1. On-chain protocol revenue is distributed to token holders, while project teams hold the majority of tokens, so their interests are not significantly affected. 2. Establish a token consumption mechanism: using Ondo tokens in Ondo Perps transactions can benefit from fee reductions or discounts, which not only increases Ondo users' purchasing power but also increases token value.How many people still think this small bull run is a fake pump???
The market keeps hitting new highs in this phase, but there is huge divergence in the market. Many traders still believe this is just a fake pump rebound triggered by news.
Sentiment and contract data: The greed index has reached 62, entering the greed zone. Nearly 45% of traders in social surveys judge this round of the market as a pulse fake pump. On the contract side, the old batch of short positions has been fully liquidated after a short squeeze, and new short positions are being set up at high levels to bet on a pullback; the BTC long-short ratio is close to balanced, retail investors are more bearish, while large holders dominate the long positions, showing a split in long-short views.
Why do many insist on the "fake pump" theory: The core driver of this rise is a short squeeze, not a massive influx of new external funds. BTC ETFs currently only see intermittent capital inflows and have not formed a continuous steady net inflow; on-chain activity is mostly internal reshuffling of existing funds, with short-term profit-taking continuously moving to exchanges for cashing out.
Two possible outcomes: If ETFs continue to have net inflows and industry and policy expectations keep materializing, this round will evolve into a real trend market; if the short squeeze momentum runs out and spot capital fails to take over, the new highs cannot be sustained, then this recovery is just a short-term fake pump.
We cannot simply take sides based on opinions; let the market capital decide, and avoid premature subjective conclusions.
Market dynamics are only for review reference and cannot be directly used as a basis for judging price movements.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL BTC is around $71,000; the price has stagnated, but the expectations have likely already been exhausted. What variables have been reflected in the price and which have not yet? The original poster points out that this rise has proceeded without a clear correction since the bottom, and despite a series of positive news, the price is consolidating around $71,400 with decreasing volume at each peak. This can be interpreted as weakening new buying pressure needed for further gains. However, the long-term trend is still considered bullish, and the poster states that if the price breaks above $71,800, they will admit their judgment was wrong. - BTC is fluctuating around $71,400, with volume decreasing on each attempt to rise - ETH has recently shown a relatively strong rebound but its ratio compared to BTC has not yet recovered - Stocks like BEAT and SNDK are in a psychologically amplified zone, making chasing buys inefficient - The overall market has positive factors priced in$LAB surged from 0.07 to 25 and then fell back to 0.07, $BEAT went from 0.1 to 11 and then back to zero, $BICO rose from 0.01 to 0.09 and then dropped below 0.02—these three sets of numbers are the most brutal scripts of the past few months. Have you ever wondered why every time you fantasize about huge profits, it always shatters just when you are heavily invested? I reviewed my own trading records and found a particularly painful pattern: all major losses came from those "star coins" I chased by watching the top gainers list. They are like carefully designed traps, using parabolic rises to hook your greed, then teaching you a lesson with free fall. Let's start with $LAB; at its peak of 25U, many shouted "the 100x coin is here," but it came down from the top with weak rebounds, steadily declining back to the starting point. More subtly, every small rebound during this process had huge selling pressure—not retail investors selling, but smart money unloading in batches. You think you've bottomed out, but you're actually catching their last chips. $BEAT is even more typical, dropping from 11U back to 0.1U with almost no decent resistance in between. Behind this lies a harsh truth: when the narrative hype fades, liquidity dries up instantly like a receding tide, and the order book is too thin to withstand any disturbance. Both bulls and bears get repeatedly harvested because the whales don't care about direction, only volatility. Then look at $BICO, which rose from 0.01 to 0.09—a considerable increase—but the drop was even more decisive, breaking below the starting point and continuing downward. What does this indicate? It shows that coins at this level, aIn 1163, the foundation of Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris was laid. When the first stone was set, not a single craftsman knew if they would live to see the spire pierce the sky. Many of them indeed did not. Gothic cathedrals are among the most extraordinary engineering marvels in human civilization—not because of how high their vaults are, but because they require generations to work together on the same blueprint, each generation knowing they are merely a footnote in the building's history. Ethereum is becoming that cathedral in the digital world. 1. The Invisible Architects Ethereum launched in 2015. By June 2025, a decade later, the cumulative number of developers in the Ethereum ecosystem surpassed 1 million, with over 31,000 active developers—nearly double that of its closest competitor, Solana. These 1 million people are spread across the globe, with no single employer, no headquarters building, and many have never met each other. The code they submit, the EIP proposals they review, and the vulnerabilities they discover ultimately form a decade-long chain of construction. This reminds me of the anonymous stonemasons of medieval cathedrals. Cologne Cathedral was built from 1248 to 1880, spanning 632 years. Each generation of stonemasons followed the blueprints left by their predecessors, carving their marks inside the invisible flying buttresses. Ethereum's EIP proposal system is that blueprint: EIP-1559 changed the Gas fee mechanism, EIP-4844 opened a cheap data channel for Layer 2, and EIP-7251 raised the validator balance limit from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH. Supply and Demand Relationship in Chip Structure — Review + Future Projection
A month ago, with the US stock market pullback, MicroStrategy selling coins, and oil price rebound, why didn’t BTC drop under all these negative factors?
Because the chip structure limited the downward momentum!
Over 2 million BTC were accumulated in the 62,000-64,000 range, with concentrated turnover in the short term, making everyone’s cost roughly the same.
For example, if you bought BTC at 62,000 and it dropped to 58,000, would you sell? I think most likely not. If you think so, others do too.
So, as long as no one sells, no matter how much macro liquidity shrinks or demand dries up, the price won’t fall.
After nearly two months of low volatility sideways movement, BTC surged from 64,000 to 75,000 within 3 days; why could it rise so fast?
It’s still the structural advantage of chip distribution!
Look, during these days, the chip bar at $63,000 barely moved, while the chip bars between 68,000-74,000 remain very short.
🚩 This indicates two points:
1. The rise was too fast, giving no chance for turnover; those who didn’t buy earlier almost couldn’t get on board.
2. The chips in the concentrated area were not eager to sell during the rally.
If there’s no selling pressure, even a little buying power can push the price up; I don’t need to explain this further.
Essentially, price is determined by supply and demand. And chip structure is the clearest expression of supply and demand.
For future projections, I have the following thoughts:
1⃣ Rapid rallies often can’t last. When the price reaches a certain height, chips will start to loosen.
2⃣ When chips start to loosen, the price will stabilize or even pull back. A new chip concentration area will then form.
3⃣ If not, then the firmness and support of the 62,000-63,000 concentrated chip area will be tested again.
4⃣ After this battle, the possibility of a large subsequent break below support is shrinking.
5⃣ For those still waiting for 40,000/30,000, the probability of missing the next cycle is infinitely increasing. Bitcoin is really fierce. Last time I said it would break the 70,000 level, and it happened within minutes. This time I said it would reach the target range of 75,000~78,000, and it has just about reached that. At this point, guessing the top or looking for reasons behind the rise is pointless. Shorting still requires waiting; you can't be reckless. Many people might be afraid of heights and hesitant to go long, so overcoming the fear of missing out is key. If you don't participate, then don't; observing and learning isn't a bad thing.
Sometimes simple math is the most straightforward. This was proven effective when calculating SpaceX's stock price tops and bottoms before. 6.25×1.2=7.5, meaning even 5x leverage has already been liquidated. If 3x leverage gets liquidated, the target price would be above 80,000. As I said yesterday, from the chip perspective, there is actually little resistance below 80,000. Whether the final price reaches that, I don't know; we'll see as it goes. After all, once Bitcoin starts moving, the pace will be very fast.$BTC Bitcoin's recent surge is not accidental; it is driven by a resonance of three factors:
Short squeeze market
Previously, the price dropped from 126,000 to just over 60,000, and the market unanimously shorted on every rebound, resulting in a large accumulation of short positions with high leverage. After the price broke through, short positions were consecutively liquidated, and liquidations require buying to close positions, causing passive buying to continuously push the price higher, forming an upward cycle.
US Treasury signals liquidity release
From September 9 to early November, the US Treasury increased the single repurchase limit for long-term bonds from 2 billion to over 4 billion. With eased liquidity expectations, US Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, driving risk assets including cryptocurrencies higher.
Positive expectations for US crypto policy
Trump met with top executives of leading crypto companies, expressing intentions to make the US a global digital asset hub; the SEC introduced new regulatory proposals, and Trump mentioned considering government purchases of Bitcoin.
Whether these will materialize remains unknown, but they have greatly boosted market sentiment. $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ This round of $BTC pulling back above 70,000 is truly interesting not because of the price itself, but the way it’s rising. It’s not Meme coins flying around, not altcoin rotations, not a sudden explosion of retail sentiment, but rather the combined effect of regulation, ETFs, the bond market, and dollar expectations all pushing BTC back to the main stage. Today’s news shows $BTC has already stood above the 72,000 USD range, with some quotes even reaching higher levels. This kind of movement is not an ordinary rebound; it’s capital re-recognizing BTC as the market’s overall leader.
When I look at $BTC now, the key question isn’t "can it still rise," but whether there’s buying support on the pullbacks. It lingered around 64,000 for a long time, and many in the market found it boring, ETF flows were fluctuating, and Saylor’s side wasn’t continuously buying. Everyone thought it was dull. But then regulatory expectations came together: the White House crypto meeting, Trump pushing the Clarity Act, CFTC/SEC market structure discussions, and long-term US Treasury buybacks all stacked up, forcing shorts to cover passively. This kind of rise is different from retail FOMO; it looks more like mainline capital repricing.
In the short term, I’m watching two levels. First, can the 70,000 round number hold? If this level stabilizes, it means the previous breakout wasn’t just an emotional spike but capital willing to lift the new platform. Second, can the 72,000 to 73,000 USD area turn from resistance into support? If the pullback doesn’t break below, the market will be hard to short because what shorts fear most isn’t a rise, but a rise that doesn’t retreat.
But don’t chase blindly here. BTC’s short-term rise is fast, and some indicators are definitely overheated, especially with news mentioning aggressive short liquidations, indicating part of this move is driven by passive buying. The advantage of passive buying is a quick lift; the downside is if spot and ETFs don’t follow, a pullback is likely. So I don’t just look at a big green candle; I focus more on the quality of the pullback. A strong market doesn’t mean no corrections, but that corrections find buyers at key levels.
The most important change this round is that capital is starting to recognize only the mainline again. DOGE, Meme coins, and many altcoins haven’t truly taken off yet, while BTC has already drawn market attention away. At this point, don’t rush to fantasize about a full altcoin season; first, see if BTC can establish a new base above 70,000. If the mainline isn’t stable, altcoin hype tends to be short-lived; once the mainline is stable, capital will then spread along BTC, ETH, and strong sectors.
My judgment is simple: now is not the time to watch the spectacle but to watch for support in $BTC. If it can hold above 70,000, it means this move isn’t a pump-and-dump; if it dips below 70,000 but quickly recovers, the bulls are still in control; if it falls below 68,000 with volume, it means short-term sentiment is overheated and we need to wait for a better level.
The signal BTC is sending to the market this round is very clear: before the mainline returns, don’t rush to look for supporting players. The one that can truly drive the whole market is still it. $BTC If you only focus on the K-line in these 3 days, you might think the crypto market suddenly went crazy, is the bull market here? The surge is beyond imagination! $BTC has rallied from around 63,000 to a high of 79,603 USD, and is still around 77,000; $ETH surged from around 1,900 to a high of 2,449, with strength even surpassing BTC. But after reanalyzing the funds over these days, it looks more like four forces suddenly resonated. The first force is real money ETF buying. From August 17 to 20, the US BTC spot ETF had net inflows for 4 consecutive trading days, approximately 298 million, 189 million, 517 million, and 606 million USD respectively, totaling about 1.61 billion USD; ETH ETF also had net inflows of about 509 million USD during the same period. This indicates that the latter half cannot simply be explained as "contract-driven pump." The second force is a critical variable in the US Treasury market. The 30-year US Treasury yield previously surged to the highest level since 2007, and the US Treasury subsequently doubled the repurchase scale of some long-term bonds to at least 4 billion USD per time. The long-end yield quickly fell, the dollar weakened simultaneously, directly opening up valuation space for risk assets. The third force is the reduction of regulatory discount. Trump publicly promoted the CLARITY Act, and expectations for clearer crypto regulatory boundaries in the US reemerged, with Coinbase, Strategy, and other crypto assets strengthening simultaneously. Additionally, a large number of shorts had accumulated in the 65,000–70,000 range earlier, and the breakout triggered continuous short squeezes. The fourth signal actuallyIn just two days, how badly did the shorts suffer? On August 20, Bitcoin broke through $71,000, triggering a strong short squeeze in the market. $BTC surged over 10% in a single day, ETH rose nearly 19%, and a large number of short positions were forced to liquidate. According to CoinGlass data, over the past 24 hours, the global crypto market saw liquidations exceeding $3 billion, with the vast majority coming from shorts. About 170,000 traders were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation occurring in the Hyperliquid BTC-USDT contract, amounting to nearly $50 million. Today, BTC continued to break through, with the price once approaching around $80,000. This means: The shorts trapped yesterday have not yet fully recovered, and new shorts have entered the market. The market is forming a continuous short squeeze trend. From the data, the biggest feature of this rally is not just a simple rise, but: Rise → Short stop-loss → Forced buying → Driving the price to continue rising. This is a typical "short squeeze." Why were the shorts so severely damaged this time? Because the market had been in a long period of consolidation and adjustment, many traders habitually believed: BTC couldn't go higher; $70,000 was the top; they should continue shorting. But when BTC broke through the key resistance level, the market logic changed. Those who were originally bearish were forced to become buyers during the rally. This is also why, many times: at the start of a rally, the ones most likely to get hurt are not those without positions, but those trading against the trend with high leverage. Of course, [The Triple Logic Behind Bitcoin's Surge + Midterm Election Foreshadowing]
Yesterday, Bitcoin skyrocketed, rising 8% in a single day to touch the 70,000 mark. This is the first big bullish candle since June. Even Ethereum surged more than ten percent. Essentially, this is a resonance of three forces:
1. Treasury's liquidity support
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suddenly announced that the repurchase scale of 10-30 year Treasury bonds would double from 2 billion each time to no less than 4 billion, continuously releasing liquidity from September 9 to November 4. Once the news broke, the US dollar index plunged 8%, gold rose 3.5%, and risk assets collectively rallied, with the crypto market taking off directly.
2. Short squeeze from liquidations
On the same day, short positions were forcefully liquidated up to 1.4 billion USD, with 1 billion liquidated within one hour — price rallies triggered short stop-losses, and liquidations themselves are buying actions, creating a positive feedback loop of "price rise → liquidation → further price rise," pushing the market even higher.
3. White House policy signals
On the same day, Trump met with crypto industry CEOs and regulators at the White House, publicly stating that the US is evaluating large-scale purchases of Bitcoin and crypto assets, and urging Congress to quickly pass the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" to define regulatory boundaries for the industry, directly boosting market confidence.
This surge seems more like a short-term event-driven move. Besides liquidity release, the crypto fundamentals haven't changed much, but the midterm election game is just beginning. Future market trends will depend on policy implementation and capital competition. I smell the fresh scent of a small bull coming!!!
The market keeps hitting new phase highs, the profit-making effect is spreading widely, altcoins are moving one after another, ETF funds are flowing back, and the scent of a small bull is in the air. But it’s important to distinguish: this is a strong recovery, not equivalent to a full bull market.
From the data perspective, BTC continues to rise, with a 24-hour liquidation of short positions reaching 3.3 billion, triggering a short squeeze rally; BTC and ETH spot ETFs are seeing phased capital inflows, and institutional funds are starting to replenish positions. Market risk appetite is rising, funds are overflowing from mainstream to others, a large number of oversold altcoins are starting to catch up, altcoin total market cap is rising simultaneously, and the profit-making effect is visible to the naked eye.
However, several necessary conditions have not yet fully materialized. ETF inflows are currently intermittent and have not formed a continuous steady net inflow; long-term dormant chips have not fled, but on-chain more is portfolio adjustment of existing funds, and massive incremental funds off-chain have not yet entered on a large scale. The daily RSI is in severe overbought territory, and the crowding of bulls remains high.
The small bull flavor has indeed arrived, but it belongs to a recovery-type small bull market, not a mindless one-way rise. Under high overbought conditions, a technical pullback and shakeout could come at any time. You can participate accordingly, but avoid chasing highs crazily, and do not mistake short-term recovery for the end of a major bull market.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, aiming to raise funds that could match SpaceX. My first reaction when I saw this news was: Here we go again?
Anthropic is going public, with the prospectus expected as early as the end of August, and they secretly submitted the S-1 in June. Their fundraising target directly competes with SpaceX—SpaceX just set a global IPO record of $86.2 billion in June this year, and this guy says they want to match or even surpass that.
The valuation is even more outrageous; the market is already talking about $2 trillion. What does $2 trillion mean? Coca-Cola and Pepsi combined don’t even come close. A company whose most famous product externally is a chatbot, valued at $2 trillion—I really start to question my understanding of money.
But you really can’t call them crazy. Q2 revenue was $11.5 billion, compared to only $787 million in the same period last year, a 14-fold increase in one year. Annualized revenue has already reached $65 billion, and Q2 even achieved adjusted operating profit for the first time. This growth curve is unmatched in tech history.
So the question is: Is this the biggest opportunity in human history, or the biggest bubble?
I tend to wait and see. Everyone knows how fast AI burns money; Nvidia’s GPUs are not cheap. Now with hundreds of billions in revenue, they dare to be valued at $2 trillion—what if growth slows down next year? Also, OpenAI is in line, and when two giants start drawing blood, whether the market can handle it is another question.
An AI company valued at $2 trillion sounds like a game of hot potato. What do you all think? $CORE says an uncomfortable truth many are unwilling to face this evening, exposing the self-deceptive tactics rampant within the community.
The most widespread narrative currently: as long as BTC surges back to 120,000, CORE will surely hold steady at $1.
On paper, the logic seems perfect—oversold at a low price, small-cap elasticity, BTCFi sector support—a complete bull market storyline.
The key to this tactic is deliberately hiding all the harsh preconditions, only throwing out the enticing outcome.
It never mentions sector competition, ongoing unlocking selling pressure, or the layers of trapped positions. It paints the ideal bull market scenario as an inevitable reality, continuously feeding holders with empty promises.
Market data has long disproved these rosy illusions.
BTC surged $13,000 in two days, the entire market celebrated wildly, yet CORE only saw a slight rebound of 0.006. In this structural market, when BTC rallies, this area is more prone to bleeding out, making it hard to share in the market gains.
To reach $1 requires four simultaneous conditions: a super bull market, the sector becoming the main theme, massive capital overflow, and competitors yielding traffic.
The harsh prerequisites are simplified into a slogan, using holders’ unwillingness to admit losses and fear of missing out to stabilize positions.
A pragmatic view of the market suggests $0.3–0.5 is the reasonable recovery range for this cycle.
$1 is just a morale booster, a way to numb holders.
Narratives can attract attention, but the market is the only truth. Faith in positions supported by fantasies will collapse completely after a single correction.
⚠️This is only a personal market perspective and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; trade rationally.Bitcoin’s historical drawdowns have become less extreme with each cycle: 2011: -93% 2015: -87% 2017: -83% 2021: -78% 2026: -54% 👀 If the trend of diminishing volatility continues, a deeper correction could still put the potential cycle low somewhere around $40K–$48K. For perspective: • 60% drawdown: ~$50,500 • 65% drawdown: ~$44,200 • 68% drawdown: ~$40,400 There’s another factor I’m watching: the historical 12–14 month peak-to-trough cycle window hasn’t fully played out yet. That doesn’t guaraBehind the 23% surge in $BTC, the market is trading on U.S. debt anxiety.
The U.S. Treasury has raised the single repurchase limit for long-term bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective from September 9 to November 4.
The funds come from Treasury cash or short-term debt issuance, without creating new money, so this is neither QE nor yield curve control, but more like a maturity swap.
Yet $BTC still broke through $77,000, with a weekly gain of 23%, gold rose in sync, and the dollar weakened.
This indicates the market is not trading the $4 billion figure itself, but the signal this event releases: long-term financing costs have risen to a level that unsettles policymakers, who may need stronger measures to suppress yields in the future.
This is also the core logic behind the rise in hard assets.
If the government chooses to lower interest rates to ease debt pressure, the real purchasing power of cash and bonds may be impaired, naturally giving Bitcoin and gold a premium; short covering then amplifies the short-term rally.
However, the repurchase scale is still small relative to U.S. debt supply, and the 30-year yield has already rebounded from its low.
Don't mistake the maturity swap for unlimited easing; focus on long bond yields and the dollar.
Pay special attention if both continue to rise, as this liquidity narrative will be repriced by the market!
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Key Price and Market Data
• Bitcoin (BTC): Started around $64,000-$65,000 on August 19, broke through $70,000 on August 20, with an intraday high of approximately $72,000-$73,000 (some sources reported about $72,850-$73,000), a 24-hour increase of about 5-12% (depending on the time window), a significant rise compared to early week levels. This marks the highest point since early June.
• Ethereum (ETH): Even larger gains, about 18-20%, approaching or surpassing $2,300.
• Other major coins: Most, including XRP and Solana, saw double-digit increases; HYPE (Hyperliquid) performed notably due to Trump-related remarks.
• Total Market Cap: Rose to approximately $2.4-$2.5 trillion (24-hour increase over 10%).
• Trading Volume: Significantly expanded, with Bitcoin’s daily trading volume surging notably.
• Sentiment Indicator: Fear & Greed Index rose to the “Greed” zone (around 59-62).
• Follow-up: By early trading on August 21, BTC further surged to around $75,000-$77,000, with weekly gains potentially reaching about 20%.
This rally is a typical resonance of “macro liquidity + policy expectations + leverage liquidations,” with short-term gains mainly driven by short squeeze amplification. The sustainability depends on continued ETF inflows, spot demand, and actual progress on the Clarity Act. The market has broken out from weeks of consolidation From the data, it indeed arrived: Bitcoin surged over 8% in a single day, once touching 70,000; Ethereum was even more dramatic, rising nearly 20% intraday, jumping straight from 1900 to 2300. The entire network's shorts were bloodied within 24 hours, with liquidations exceeding 2.7 billion. The last time Bitcoin rose more than 7% in a day was in April this year. This wave directly recovered all the losses from the past two months, with prices returning to early June levels. The total market cap increased by 7.2% in one day, from 2.26 trillion to 2.45 trillion. Secondary altcoins showed a rare almost all-green performance. Before this wave, CZ posted a tweet implying he believes the bottom has been reached; Wang Chun even outright declared the slogan "the bear market is over." However, in my view, this is still more of a rebound than a reversal. The three bullish factors driving this market rise all have exaggerated elements behind them. The market rally is driven by speculation on expectations, not by what these positives can truly deliver. 1⃣ Ministry of Finance expanding long-term bond repurchases — this is the most direct and primary reason for this wave. The logic is straightforward: rising government bond yields increase interest expenses and widen the fiscal deficit, prompting the government to intervene with repurchases, causing yields to drop sharply. Government bond yields are the denominator in all valuation models; when the denominator falls, capital naturally spills over from bonds back into risk assets. Meanwhile, gold also rose back to 4500 — gold and Bitcoin are the two assets that most directly counteract currency depreciation. However, the Ministry of Finance's repurchase only raised the single repurchase limit; the quarterly total remains unchanged. Moreover, the funds come from issuing new short-term debt — selling short and buying long, essentially a swap.#US Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Buybacks, 30-Year US Bonds Pull Back from Highs
The boss has something to say
The news about the Treasury's buybacks has been analyzed before: the buyback limit for long-term bonds from 10 to 30 years has doubled from 2 billion to 4 billion. The effect is obvious, with the 30-year US bond yield dropping from 5.33% to about 5.18%. Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to above 75,000, gaining over 10,000 points in two days.
But one issue needs to be clarified. The Treasury's buybacks only improve liquidity; they are not QE, and certainly not rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has not moved, with rates still in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. After the short-term drop in long-term bond yields, if fiscal deficits and bond issuance pressures resurface, the foundation of this rebound will gradually erode.
On the market side, the long position at 74,800 is still in play, targeting 80,000. The Ethereum long position at 2,248 is moving in tandem with Bitcoin. The short squeeze has reached this point; the cost-effectiveness of chasing highs in the short term is decreasing, but until the trend ends, holding long positions is better than repeatedly trading.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.Currently, the US stock market's AI hardware is shifting from single chips to optical copper connections and liquid cooling revaluation. US Treasury yields are oscillating at high levels, suppressing macro liquidity. The core contradiction lies in the pricing game between the expansion of computing power capital expenditure and the marginal withdrawal of macro funds.
Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rate decisions and US Treasury yields stabilizing at high levels, the strong US dollar index is squeezing valuations of gold and crypto assets. $NVDA and the US semiconductor sector still hold the core pricing power for capital expenditure across the entire market. The full hardware chain expansion from GPUs to optical fibers, high-speed copper cables, PCB copper-clad laminates, and liquid cooling is driving demand for industrial copper and high-end materials, but the crypto market and US small-cap stocks are under pressure due to liquidity diversion.
The driving factors are ranked as follows: first, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and US Treasury yields directly constrain the discount rate of risk assets; second, the actual capital expenditure realization of tech giants on $NVDA and cluster connection infrastructure; third, the crowding-out effect of the US dollar's strength on gold and cross-market crypto capital pools.
The bullish scenario requires the 10-year US Treasury yield to fall below 4.0% and the US dollar index to weaken, allowing macro liquidity to overflow again. At this time, $NVDA cluster deployment drives better-than-expected performance in high-speed connectors, PCBs, and liquid cooling chains. US tech stocks lead the rally and push crypto assets to break key resistance levels, with capital broadly flowing into risk assets.
The bearish scenario triggers if the US Treasury yield breaks above 4.5% or inflation data rebounds, causing the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations to fail and safe-haven funds to flow into gold and the US dollar. In this scenario, even if data center hardware demand continues to grow, high-valuation computing power sectors and crypto assets will face a joint correction triggered by liquidity withdrawal.
The invalidation condition is if the deployment progress of high-density data center cabinets slows down or a shift in technology routes causes structural crowding out of short-distance copper cables and optical modules demand. If the order growth rate for industrial copper and hardware connectors falls below 10%, the market's revaluation logic for the computing power expansion chain will be terminated.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the volatility range of the 10-year US Treasury yield, whether the US dollar index can maintain above critical thresholds, and the net capital inflow difference changes between the crypto market and US tech sector.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 First, looking at the financial report: Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of 2026 was ¥17.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%. Net profit attributable to the parent company was ¥5.04 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was ¥5.16 billion, with a growth rate of about 9.5%. Gross margin was 69.7%. Adjusted net margin was 30%. These figures still show strong profitability. However, the market had previously expected revenue close to ¥20 billion and net profit around ¥6.6 billion. Revenue was about 14% lower, and net profit about 24% lower. This is not just slightly missing expectations but a clear shortfall. Company performance data Market expectation data The day after the earnings report, Pop Mart opened down 8%, opening at HK$141.1. The market was not wrong about it. Previously, the market valued the company based on the logic of "global hit products continuing to double." Now the company is telling everyone that revenue can only grow by about 20%, and profit growth is even lower. Of course, the valuation method needs to be revised. LABUBU is cooling down. THE MONSTERS, which includes LABUBU, had revenue of ¥4.45 billion in the first half of the year, still Pop Mart's largest IP. But in the same period last year, this figure was ¥4.814 billion. That means THE MONSTERS' revenue declined about 7.6% year-on-year. Its share of company revenue also dropped from 34.7% to 26%. Mid-2025 performance LABUBU's cooling is no longer just a social media popularity issue. It has started to show in the financial report. The good news is that other IPs have picked up. Star People had revenue of ¥2.65 billion in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 580.6% The atmosphere around the AI IPO table these past two days has been somewhat subtle.
$ANTHROPIC hasn't even made its S-1 public yet, but the market has already pumped up expectations.
The price surged from around 150 to 187, touching 190 intraday. The market is trading very straightforwardly: with the document expected at the end of August and fundraising possibly matching or even surpassing SpaceX, combined with rapid revenue growth, the valuation of the "next super IPO" is priced in first.
On the other hand, $SPCX is facing a more realistic test.
About 319 million shares are unlocking this week, and the market is waiting for early shareholders and employees to cash out, yet the price still holds near the $135 IPO price.
SpaceX just completed its 100th mission this year, launching 24 Starlink satellites into orbit.
The unlocking increases supply, while launches and Starlink sustain demand, so the selling pressure isn’t as scary as imagined.
My understanding is that these two targets are actually trading the same question: how high can the market still value "super growth"?
Anthropic’s daily RSI has already exceeded 84, with sentiment clearly running ahead of the filing. After the S-1 is public at the end of the month, people won’t just look at revenue, but also at computing costs, losses, and whether enterprise clients can support the valuation.
One is proving that new chips have buyers, the other is about to prove that sky-high fundraising has buyers.
Both stories are big; what comes next isn’t about noise, but about delivery.
$BTC
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX If BTC really can surge back to the previous high of 120,000, as the core token of the BTCFi ecosystem, the logic that CORE could reach $1 makes sense. Let's break it down:
✅ Your core logic holds
1. The market cap is extremely small, so the elasticity is naturally sufficient
The current circulating market cap is only about $20 million, with a circulating supply roughly between 900 million and 1.25 billion tokens:
• At $0.5 ≈ $500 million market cap, a 50x space; in a bull market, any popular small narrative coin can easily reach this scale;
• At $1 ≈ $1 billion market cap; as the leader in its sector, a market cap of $2 billion is reasonable and not overvalued in a major BTC bull market.
2. The rotation sequence is very reasonable
BTC strengthens first → BTC ecosystem narratives heat up → capital overflows to core small tokens in the sector. CORE, as the earliest BTC+EVM and Satoshi Plus consensus BTCFi leader, is indeed the top priority candidate for capital, with much stronger certainty than most unknown altcoins.
3. The current price has almost fully priced in the bear market negatives
From the historical high of 6.14 down to a few cents, the deep bear market has been fully digested. Now it is a low-level small cap with strong BTC beta binding. Once the sector heats up, the elasticity will be extremely exaggerated.
⚠️ But $1 has two hard prerequisites and is not guaranteed
1. Prerequisite one: BTC reaching 120,000 while BTCFi/Bitcoin ecosystem is the clear main rotation sector this cycle
If this cycle only focuses on BTC, ETH, and large mainstream caps for a short squeeze, and capital does not spread to ecosystem small tokens, then even if BTC hits 120,000, CORE may not capture the full beta. Often, a one-sided BTC bull market is actually a bloodsucking altcoin market.
2. Prerequisite two: must withstand selling pressure and sector competition
• Total supply is 2.1 billion, with ongoing block rewards and some early tokens unlocking, so it is not a deflationary small coin;
• Stacks, Merlin, Bitlayer, Babylon and many other BTC L2/staking projects compete for the same narrative wave, so the leading position is not an absolute monopoly;
• Currently, ecosystem TVL and real user data are weak, mostly narrative-driven. Only a pure sentiment bull market can easily push the market cap above $1 billion.
📌 More pragmatic expectations by tier
• BTC new highs + sector rotation: first target $0.3~$0.5 (within $500 million market cap), which is a better cost-performance ratio and has less resistance;
• Only if BTC enters a super bull market, BTCFi becomes the market main line, and ecosystem data keeps pace, can we talk about $1+ (market cap $1-2 billion);
• If BTC only rebounds but does not enter a major bull market, this wave is just a low-level rebound and unlikely to become a large-scale rally.
Finally, regarding your comment "rising too fast to add positions, frustrating"
Such small market cap narrative coins often start without giving comfortable low entry points, a typical bull market rotation feature.
Two coping strategies:
1. If you already have a base position: don't chase high to add; wait for BTC pullback or sector divergence retracement to add in batches;
2. If you have no position: better to try with a small, light position than to chase full positions out of fear of missing out; small caps are extremely volatile with harsh flash crashes;
3. Prioritize distinguishing: during BTC main rise phase, prioritize mainstream; wait for BTC to stabilize and capital to clearly flow into the ecosystem, then increase altcoin positions more comfortably.
Summary:
BTC reaching 120,000 + sector narrative explosion makes CORE at $1 a reasonable bull market projection, not hype; but it is a secondary phase, not immediately realized with BTC, belonging to rotation after BTC strengthens.
Starting too fast and missing out is normal; this is common in small cap bull markets, so don't chase highs emotionally.
Trader Dogzong$BTC has reached 75000, but I chose to pocket the floating profit first.
The long position at 64700 from three days ago has now gained over ten thousand points in floating profit. Watching the account numbers jump up, I actually feel more uneasy—not because I’m bearish on the market, but because this slope is just too steep.
BTC peaked at 75700, gaining 17 points in three days, with over 3 billion USD exploding in 24 hours, basically wiping out the shorts in one wave. The driving logic is solid: the Treasury Secretary doubled the debt repurchase limit, US Treasury yields fell; the White House confirmed the CLARITY Act vote on September 15; ETFs had net inflows for two consecutive days, with BTC+ETH combined inflows exceeding 700 million on August 19.
But the technical signals are equally glaring. The daily RSI has surged to around 80, in a severe overbought zone. CoinDesk analysts clearly stated: a short squeeze can start a trend, but it’s hard to sustain the entire trend with it. After the shorts are cleared, the baton must be passed to spot buying, and the sustainability of spot buying depends on whether ETF inflows can maintain high levels and whether stablecoin supply can continue to expand.
The direction of this rally is correct, but the pace definitely needs a breather. 75000 has been reached; whether it can hold in the next 48 hours is critical. If the pullback doesn’t break 74000, that’s a healthy chip rotation; if it breaks down with volume, the short-term top might have been found.
I’ve already closed half of my long position, leaving the rest to see how the 75000-77000 range plays out.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Morgan Stanley's holdings approach 7,000 BTC: What long-term trump cards does the Wall Street wealth management giant reveal by continuously increasing its position?
The latest fund flow tracked by on-chain intelligence agency Arkham once again showcases the execution power of traditional Wall Street giants in dollar-cost averaging.
Data shows that Morgan Stanley, a top Wall Street investment bank, has increased its Bitcoin holdings for two consecutive trading days recently, spending $21.91 million through its spot Bitcoin ETF channel to acquire approximately 320.95 BTC. As a result, Morgan Stanley's total Bitcoin holdings have rapidly climbed to 6,995 BTC, with a total market value surpassing $515 million.
While many retail investors are still anxious over short-term fluctuations of a few percentage points and caught in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the top-tier bank controlling tens of trillions in global wealth management channels is methodically executing its asset allocation accumulation rhythm.
Understanding the true significance of Morgan Stanley's holdings surpassing $500 million hinges on recognizing the "capital nature" behind it.
Morgan Stanley is not only an investment bank but also the leading wealth management powerhouse in the U.S. and globally, with over 15,000 professional financial advisors managing trillions in assets for high-net-worth families, corporate treasuries, and pension trusts.
When Morgan Stanley previously fully opened the gate allowing its financial advisors to recommend spot Bitcoin assets to high-net-worth clients, it effectively connected the crypto market to a continuous, highly sticky traditional wealth diversion channel.
This capital, led by private banks and family offices, fundamentally differs from the short-term leveraged speculative hot money common in the crypto space.
The logic behind high-net-worth institutional clients building positions is never to speculate on tomorrow's price moves but to use Bitcoin as a "strategic satellite allocation" for inflation and sovereign credit risk hedging based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT).
Once this type of capital buys in and settles into custody vaults, its holding period is typically measured in years or even multiple macro cycles, rarely cutting losses due to short-term panic in secondary markets.
This means that the nearly 7,000 BTC Morgan Stanley continues to buy are being permanently removed from exchange liquidity pools, creating a silent "liquidity supply black hole" in the secondary market.
What’s even more noteworthy is the competitive effect within Wall Street’s wealth management sector.
As Morgan Stanley achieves scale and demonstration effects in spot Bitcoin allocation, other private banking giants like Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, and UBS face increasing client allocation pressure. No one wants to lose the lead in managing the next generation of digital hard assets.
When confronted with intense short-term market shakeouts and noise, it’s worth paying more attention to what these top institutions managing trillions in assets are doing with real money.
Facing Morgan Stanley’s holdings surpassing $500 million and its continued dollar-cost averaging amid volatility, is your current position strategy more inclined to follow top institutions’ rhythm for long-term lock-up, or do you still prefer to speculate on swing profits in short-term contracts?
---
The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Just earned 94U then got liquidated immediately｜The scariest thing about contracts isn’t losing, it’s losing your mindset after profiting🔥
Sharing today’s real BTC contract historical positions, in just a few dozen minutes, it perfectly reflects human nature in contracts.
First trade: BTC long, isolated margin 50x.
Opened at 76347.9, closed at 78364.7
Realized profit +94.34U, return rate directly 126.61%.
This trade matched the market trend, the operation hit the right rhythm, and the profit was solidly in hand.
People are like this: after one successful trade, the brain starts to heat up.
Just after closing the position and securing profit, immediately felt like I understood the market, confidence maxed out.
Second trade immediately upgraded: full margin 100x to keep going long.
Average open price 79250.1.
The tragedy came quickly, the market had a slight pullback, and under full margin mode, it couldn’t withstand normal fluctuations.
In just 29 seconds, liquidation was triggered directly.
Liquidation price 78718.3, this trade lost -76.36U, return rate -116.8%.
The profit in hand was instantly more than half given back.
The direction wasn’t too wrong, what killed me were two things:
1. Full margin mode: using all account funds to withstand drawdowns, any slight adverse movement triggers liquidation, no room for error. Isolated margin at least only loses that margin, full margin risks everything.
2. Emotional trading after profit: after earning, no rest, immediately increased leverage to push the next trade, blinded by short-term victory.
Many retail traders lose big money not by starting with big losses.
They first make a profit, then their mindset inflates, increase leverage and position size, then give back profits trade by trade, even losing principal.
The market can give you candy, but can slap you back just as fast.
Here’s a reminder to everyone:
✅ After making money, the first thing is to protect profits, not to increase bets for bigger gains
✅ Try to use isolated margin, stay away from full margin, full margin is like walking a tightrope
✅ After finishing a trade, regardless of profit or loss, give yourself some cooldown time, don’t open a new position immediately after closing
The contract market isn’t afraid of wrong trades, it’s afraid of forgetting risk after profiting.
Have you ever experienced getting overconfident right after a profit and then losing it back? Share in the comments.
⚠️ Personal real trading review only, not investment advice, high leverage in contracts carries extreme risk, participate cautiously.
5:2 cover text (screenshot as background)
Main title: Liquidated 29 seconds after earning 94U
Small text: Risk begins only after profit
Bottom: Personal real trading record, not investment adviceIn July 2026, Meta announced a deal that truly represents this era. It plans to build a 1GW data center campus in El Paso, Texas, USA, with an estimated total development cost of about $14 billion. Besides Meta, the investors include BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners and HPS Investment Partners. After the deal is completed, the fund managed by BlackRock will hold 80% equity in the joint venture, while Meta will retain only 20%. Once the campus is built, Meta will use it through a lease arrangement for up to 20 years. The entire project also includes approximately $12.5 billion in debt financing. Simply put, the tech giant is responsible for defining computing power needs, designing the campus, and becoming a long-term tenant; asset management companies provide equity capital; banks, private credit, and bond investors continue to leverage. AI data centers are beginning to have a financing structure similar to airports, power plants, and highways. Official Meta announcement This may be one of the most noteworthy changes in the AI industry currently. When tech companies' cash runs out In recent years, the most attention in AI investment has been on GPUs. Whoever can buy more NVIDIA chips may have stronger model training capabilities. However, as AI competition expands from thousands to millions of GPUs, the bill starts to include more items typically seen in traditional industrial projects: land, power grids, substations, natural gas pipelines, energy storage, cooling systems, fiber optics, and long-term power contracts CFTC Chair Michael Selig says staff are exploring new crypto-market rules if Congress does not pass the CLARITY Act.
Agency action could reduce delays, but regulation written by an agency may have a narrower scope than legislation. The details and legal durability of any proposal will matter most.
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch $BTC $ETH $OKB August 21
Gold Evening
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the long-term bond repo cap is expected to break through $4 billion, continuously suppressing the expected real yield of long-term bonds, serving as the core support for this round of gold price rise; however, the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields rebounded intraday, the market continues to contest the effectiveness of the repo implementation, increasing the divergence between bulls and bears, and the pressure of profit-taking at high levels persists.
Geopolitically, the U.S. officially announced the implementation of the largest economic isolation plan against Iran in history, with details to be released on August 24. The U.S. Navy carrier strike group is deployed to the Middle East, increasing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil remains at a high level, forming a clear hedge: geopolitical risk aversion supports the gold price floor, but the strengthening oil price again pushes up inflation expectations, constraining an uncontrolled unilateral surge in gold prices.
Today is Friday, the close of the weekly candle, with a large accumulation of long positions taking profits at high levels. The latter half of the U.S. session is prone to a spike followed by a quick pullback and sharp shakeout. Tonight, focus closely on real-time fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields.
Technical Analysis
4-hour chart: After consolidation, volume surged again with a second release of bullish momentum, but RSI has entered the overbought zone, indicating a short-term need for technical pullback and correction; tonight prioritize following the trend, wait for a pullback to confirm support before positioning, and avoid blindly chasing gains at high levels.
Strategy: Short at 4610-4590, stop loss at 4624, targets at 4545-4518-4500
Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, trade cautiously
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $XAU $BTC pulled from 64,000 to 75,000 in three days, shorts were wiped out by a $3 billion wave. $ETH surged 20% in two days, the fear and greed index jumped straight from fear to 62. Many are shouting "the bull market is back," but I think we need to clarify one premise first: Is this the start of a bull market, or are the shorts dead? Two completely different stories. 📌 The logic chain of this rally is very clear: - The US Treasury expanded the scale of treasury buybacks (from 2 billion to 4 billion), the 30-year yield dropped from 5.34% to 5.19%, easing liquidity expectations - The Trump White House met with executives from Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, calling on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, and personally endorsed Hyperliquid's compliance entry into the US - The SEC plans to exempt some digital assets from registration requirements - Shorts are extremely crowded, funding rates have been negative for a long time, after price broke key levels, a chain of liquidations occurred, forming a classic short squeeze In short, macro catalysts + policy benefits + extremely crowded positions, all three conditions met simultaneously, forcing the short squeeze to happen. 📊 But there are a few data points worth looking at calmly: ① ETF funds are indeed flowing back, IBIT had a single-day net inflow of nearly $700 million — but previously there were 13 consecutive trading days of net outflows totaling $4.4 billion. One week of inflows reversing a month of outflows, sustainability is questionable ② On-chain large holders increased net BTC holdings by about 43,000 coins, showing a reversal of selling pressure$BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC Short-term surge followed by a rapid plunge, BTC shows intense high-level volatility
Recently, the crypto market heat has continued to rise, with Bitcoin experiencing a strong rally. Market sentiment quickly warmed up, and bullish expectations for the market intensified again. After a brief surge that refreshed the stage high, profit-taking quickly appeared, with high-level oscillations and a noticeably faster rhythm of price swings.
In this rally, Bitcoin steadily broke through resistance zones, reaching an intraday high of $79,603, approaching the key $80,000 integer level, marking a recent strong rebound peak. Short-term bullish sentiment was concentrated and buying momentum surged, driving a continuous upward trend. Many investors hold high expectations for the start of a new comprehensive bull market.
However, signs of high-level pressure soon appeared. After the surge, profit-taking intentions quickly strengthened, leading to a rapid correction. The price dropped more than $2,000 in a short time, falling to around $77,600, showing a typical surge-and-fall pattern. The rapid switch between rises and falls intensified the market's long-short struggle, concentrating high-level volatility risks.
From the core market logic perspective, this rise was not driven by a broad influx of new funds but rather by rotation of existing funds within the market, phase-specific ETF capital inflows, and passive lifts caused by concentrated short position liquidations. The market characteristics are clear: Bitcoin independently strengthened, firmly holding the main trend, while most small and mid-cap altcoins showed weak correlation, with severe structural market divergence and no signs of a broad-based bull market.
Industry analysis points out that the short-term surge mainly relied on sentiment and leveraged funds, not a trend supported by massive external new capital inflows. After reaching the high, contract long positions became overcrowded, combined with accumulated short-term profit-taking. Once capital support weakened, a rapid correction was triggered, which is the core reason for the quick plunge after the surge.
Currently, the overall market remains in a strong rebound phase rather than a one-sided bull market. The biggest uncertainty on the chart still comes from macro monetary policy expectations, the sustainability of market capital, and changes in contract leverage positions. Intense long-short battles at high levels, spike washouts, and rapid price swings will become the norm.
Regarding future trends, the core market observation points remain unchanged: first, whether ETF funds can maintain continuous and stable net inflows rather than short-term pulse inflows; second, whether the market can break structural divergence and achieve a broad-based rally with most coins warming up simultaneously. Before these two confirmation signals arrive, the pattern of repeated high-level oscillations and price swings will likely continue, with high risks in chasing highs.
Overall, this rally is a sentiment-driven, phase-specific strong rebound, not a definitive broad bull market. Investors need to view the short-term surge rationally, avoid chasing highs and heavy leveraged positions, and be cautious of volatility risks caused by repeated market corrections.Brothers, $BEAT is back again, but this time the price is only 0.1239, down nearly 40% since the last time I wrote about it. It has crashed from 0.72 on August 10 to today, dropping 83% in two weeks. Those who chased the highs or tried to catch the bottom are all stuck halfway up the mountain.
🔥 What happened? From 3.4 to 0.12, the middle is full of corpses.
BEAT fell from its June ATH of $11 down to 3.3, and someone asked, "Is it time to catch the bottom?" At 0.72, analysts said it was the 0.618 Fibonacci support level, and some rushed in; at 0.26, some said it was "oversold and due for a rebound," and more jumped in. Now at 0.1239, all these people are sitting on unrealized losses of 50%-80%.
On-chain monitoring data of the top 100 addresses is clear—whales are running, retail is catching. Non-exchange addresses net sold about 22.85 million BEAT from August 17-20, while exchange/team addresses net bought about 33.91 million in the same period. In plain language: whales dumped their holdings to the team, the team is holding the bag to support the price, but it’s unsustainable. Plus, nearly 67% of the total 1 billion supply is still locked, so more tokens will be released later, and the market is already pricing in this supply pressure.
Technically, it’s all bearish: EMA5/10/30 are all pressing down from above, and the price can’t even touch the short-term moving averages. The August 18 analysis gave target prices of 0.19 and 0.17, which have now been reached and even broken below to 0.12. One analyst said, "BEAT has been in a shutdown state for 11 consecutive days," another called it a "typical capitulation pattern." In plain language: there are basically no buy orders now, and the sell pressure just keeps pushing the price down with no one to catch it.
💰 My view: don’t gamble at this level, wait for a right-side signal.
From 3.4 down to 0.12 is a 96.5% drop. BEAT’s fundamentals haven’t actually changed—Audiera is still that Web3 rhythm game + AI music platform, and the weekly burn mechanism of nearly 800,000 BEAT is still running. But fundamentals not collapsing and price not continuing to fall are two different things.
My strategy:
· For those wanting to catch the bottom: wait for volume expansion with a stop in the decline + low volume sideways consolidation. At 0.1239 now, there’s no clear support below, so trying to catch a falling knife has a very low success rate.
· For those holding positions: if it rebounds to 0.15-0.17, it’s a chance to reduce holdings. Don’t expect a V-shaped reversal; this looks more like it will bottom only when no one cares anymore.
· For contract traders: huge volatility, leverage over 5x is basically giving money away. If you really want to play, stop loss must be tight, recommended position no more than 2%.
· The safest: don’t touch this coin. Wait for right-side confirmation of stabilization, being out of the market is making money.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference):
· Short: if rebound to 0.135-0.140 fails, try light short positions, stop loss at 0.145, target 0.11-0.10
· Long: wait for volume breakout above 0.14, don’t catch the falling knife at 0.1239
· Leverage: keep within 3x, 5x volatility is giving money away
· Risk warning: liquidity is extremely poor, slippage may be large, use limit orders not market orders
$BEAT is currently playing out a "liquidity drought + whale dumping + token unlock expectations" triple kill scenario. Bottom fishing and holding through are both unsafe.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？