Orbit Post Sitemap
$BTC dominance remains at 60.2%, but the entire market fell 2.34% in 24 hours. Bitcoin didn't give way; the sectors that surged fiercely were a series of tokenized stock sectors. rStocks, Stonk, tokenized ETFs, and ETPs all refer to the same thing: US stocks on-chain. These sectors are all small in scale, with the largest only at $650 million. Remora surged 802% in one day, relying on its small market cap. USDT market cap basically didn't move in one day, with no new money coming in. Dominance staying high indicates that funds haven't massively left $BTC. This is a scenario where existing market volume squeezes into a small corner with a story during a bear market. Fear and greed dropped from 69 a week ago to 59; sentiment is retreating, and hot money will be more selective. I judge that this rotation won't last long. The end signals to watch for are two: dominance continuing to rise from 60.2%, or the daily gains of tokenized ETFs and ETPs narrowing to single digits. If either occurs, this round is considered over.Last week, US spot ETFs had a total redemption of 548 million: BTC saw 228.4 million redeemed, ETH saw 320.1 million redeemed.
Institutional money is flowing out, and this topic quickly shot to the top of the trending list—everyone is asking, who will return first?
BTC is now at 82,860, up 1.42%. On paper, "withdrawal" and "receipt" are happening simultaneously: ETFs redeemed 228 million, but large wallets have actually accumulated 86,000 coins since mid-September. Some institutions estimate that this year, the combined buying from ETFs and corporate treasuries cannot absorb the supply from long-term holders, with a gap of about 127,300 coins—but whales are catching them at the bottom. ETH is now at 2,436, up 1.15%, suffering more: last week’s outflow was nearly 100 million more than BTC. Unless the bleeding stops first, any daily gains are just paper gains. SOL is at 105.77, up 2.4%, the strongest among the three main coins, but the upgrade the day after tomorrow is an event-driven catalyst, so don’t take its rise as a signal of institutional return.
My view: 1. ETH’s weekly outflow of 320 million is not narrowing, so talk of return is empty; 2. BTC’s withdrawal and receipt happen simultaneously, whoever can hold on first will stabilize first; 3. SOL is an event-driven token, not a capital-driven one. I bet BTC will stabilize first, ETH’s rebound will have to wait until next week’s ETF turns positive. Who are you siding with? Don't chase! The sharp rise of UNI is just a bait drawn by the whales; chasing longs under 90% control is just giving away for free!
Remember this, friends: Candlestick charts can be drawn, but the flow of real money can't be fooled.
Take a look at the 1-hour chart, it rose sharply from 6.8 to 7.4, but check the capital flow: a bit of inflow in a short time, yet 8.31 million U ran out in one day, and 250 million in 15 days! What does this mean? The whales use a little money to make the chart look good just to trick us into taking the bags, while conveniently blowing up the short positions above 7.4. Plus, with 90% of the chips in their hands, even the CME futures rally today didn't push it up, indicating big institutions are not in a hurry and may even be secretly short hedging.
Trading advice: For those wanting to short, wait for it to push up again to 7.6-7.8 and try a light short;
For going long at the current price, can it hold at 7.2?
$UNI $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ The pre-market rebound today is indeed quite strong, especially with Bitcoin spiking above 83k. It really doesn't follow the US stock market's decline; once the US stocks rebound, the strong get stronger. Although I can't be sure why Bitcoin is so resilient this round, I roughly guess it's because the real interest rate expectations have stabilized.
Although we are still in a rate-hiking cycle with about two more hikes totaling 50 basis points expected, the market consensus is that this rate-hiking cycle is short. So the negative impact isn't as severe as anticipated.
Another possibility is that although AI, especially storage, has dropped sharply, this round is different from the one in July. The market isn't panicking broadly, or you could say most retail investors have already deleveraged last time. This time prices have fallen a lot but the pain is much less.
So this round of decline might actually be a rotation, fundamentally different from the widespread deleveraging in July.
Even from the perspective of long-term interest rates, easing has actually already happened on the Treasury side. The Treasury's quasi "twist operation" and Waller's hawkish rhetoric are at odds. This brings us back to the US version of YCC logic: the Fed manages nominal short-term rates, the Treasury manages duration and liquidity, and the net effect is favorable for Bitcoin.
In short, since Bitcoin has proven its strength, our mindset should shift from the previous bear market mentality, and our trading approach should change from shorting on rallies to buying on dips. BTC has already dropped 9%, and the most critical level now is the $80,000 mark. If it rebounds but still can't hold above that, $80,000 could turn from support into resistance, and further declines wouldn't be surprising.
But I don't think it's necessary to call it a bear market just because of this drop. In past Bitcoin cycles, pullbacks before halving often reached around 20%, and in the late bull market phases, corrections of 30% or even deeper are not uncommon. If this bull market is still in its early stages, a 30% deep correction shouldn't be considered the default scenario.
By this logic, a retracement of 11% to 22% from the cycle high can be considered within the observation range. It has already dropped 9%, so it's indeed approaching a level worth watching closely. However, don't treat historical patterns as guarantees; if the cycle phase is misjudged, the so-called bottom-buying zone could be broken through continuously.
I tend to advise against rushing to go all in. Those who want to buy can plan their positions in advance, splitting their funds into several parts and buying in batches weekly or monthly. If the price drops further, you get a bigger discount; if it doesn't, you won't miss out entirely. Dollar-cost averaging can't guarantee buying at the lowest point, but at least it spares you the mental stress of guessing the bottom every day.
The issue now isn't about guessing the absolute lowest price, but about how much risk you're willing to take to acquire cheaper chips. For the remainder of 2026, phased buying might be more suitable for ordinary people than betting on a perfect bottom.The dividend narrative of the Ethereum liquid staking sector is undergoing a harsh reality check. ETHFI is priced at $0.64, with a market cap of $620 million, down over 4% in 24 hours, and a trading volume of only $1.16 million — this liquidity can't even satisfy the daily hedging needs of market makers. The price fluctuates narrowly between $0.69 and $0.64, with buy orders so thin they are almost nonexistent.
Smart money signals still show net short positions, net holdings at zero, with no long traders willing to stand guard. This is not institutional bearishness but a complete loss of interest: even the cost of shorting capital is unwilling to be borne. The social aspect is even more dead silent, with bullish and bearish ratios both at zero, and no ranking in popularity. When a protocol token that should benefit from Ethereum staking rewards can't even maintain basic discussion, it indicates the market has voted with its feet — confidence in the protocol revenue dividend model has collapsed.
The core contradiction of ETHFI lies in: weak growth in protocol fee income, while token release pressure persists. The moat of liquid staking protocols is being squeezed from both sides by Lido's stETH monopoly and emerging re-staking protocols. Unless the protocol can launch substantial yield enhancement mechanisms or capture more MEV revenue, the token will continue to grind at the bottom in a downward valuation restructuring channel.
Core judgment: The failure of the dividend narrative combined with token unlocking pressure means it is difficult to see a reversal rally before fundamental improvements become marginal.$BTC rebound supported by futures, ETH shorts liquidated, Celo quietly passed a Gas fee vote On October 19, the market saw a long-awaited "Green Monday," but beneath this broad rally, the intrinsic driving forces of assets were completely different. Here are three new developments worth noting today. Bitcoin: Rebounded past 83,000 but driven by leverage rather than spot BTC rebounded from a low of $80,671, briefly surpassing $83,000 intraday. On the surface, it looks like sentiment recovery, but structurally there is a key divergence: futures 24-hour trading volume reached $43.18 billion, 12.4 times the spot volume of $3.48 billion; open interest totaled about $52.76 billion, with liquidations around $63.87 million during the same period. This indicates the rebound heavily relies on derivatives leverage, with spot buying not increasing correspondingly. The $83,000 level is a touchstone to test the rebound's strength; failure to hold it may mean this is just a short-term pulse driven by short covering. Ethereum: Shorts face a concentrated stampede, Vitalik and JPMorgan release signals on the same day $ETH rose above $2,400, triggering a wave of short liquidations. CoinGlass data shows that during the ETH rebound, 97% of liquidations within one hour were short positions, with total 24-hour liquidations exceeding $300 million; one address shorted with 25x leverage, some positions forcibly closed near $2,409, with remaining liquidation prices around $2,430. The crowded short structure was precisely triggered. On the same day, two infrastructure signals are worth attention. VitalThe daily line of ETH at 2378 has experienced multiple battles between bulls and bears. Previously, it acted as resistance and was broken through; now it has turned into strong support, making this position a key point. The current price is above this level, and the liquidity gap above still needs to be filled. This area is the primary resistance zone for the price to rebound upward and the target for bull liquidity sweeps.
If 2378 does not break, combined with short-term stabilization, the price should move toward the upper gap. This area has a magnetic effect, attracting major players to sweep liquidity upward.
The main strategy is to buy the dip above 2378-2400, with a stop loss below 2378. Short-term take profit is at 2500-2510, and wave take profit at 2623-2682. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 That late-night spike over the weekend is more invigorating than coffee. So is this the final phase of washing out positions, or just a pause in the downtrend? I was a bit surprised by the volume this morning; weekends are usually quiet, yet ETH stirred some action around 2315 before pulling back above 2400. This rhythm feels more like a game of speculation—not chasing the rally, but not full panic either. The collapse in the South Korean stock market is worrying; memories of an 80% drop in a week have resurfaced, and the current 60% drop is indeed eye-catching. After the sharp plunge in US stocks, there was no decent rebound, and the tech sector took another 5% hit this morning. External risk appetite is clearly contracting. The signal I see is: there is support around 2315, and the momentum to push lower after breaking that level is insufficient, so the chance of a deep pit in the short term is suppressed. But this is not a sign of strength, just that the bears are temporarily out of steam. The real variable will be Monday's opening in South Korea; buy orders above 10 on koru exceed fifty million dollars. If the danger zone can't hold, it could trigger a new round of selling, turning ETH's 2400 level into a confirmation of a rebound rather than a starting point. Bullish scenario: support holds, BTC stabilizes without breaking previous lows, ETH holds around 2380, oversold altcoins start to recover, and risk appetite shifts from contraction to localized testing. Bearish risk: South Korean market opens weak, tech stocks continue to be hammered, the low-volume weekend rebound is disproved, ETH retests 2315 or even lower, and risk appetite shifts directly from speculation to defense. The market is no longer trading on rate cut fantasies but on the contagion speed from external stock markets. After CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, the rate hike topic resurfaced, but the real pressure on risk appetite remains.Institutional funds are weakening; which will see capital inflow first, BTC or ETH?
During market downturns, many wait for institutions to bottom-fish. But institutional funds also hesitate, and ETFs are not just reservoirs with only inflows.
According to data, from October 12 to 16, the US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about $228.4 million, while the spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $320.1 million.
ETH's ETF fund pool is smaller, yet the net outflow amount is larger, which is worth noting.
However, a closer look at the data reveals some changes:
* BTC ETF: The previous week's net outflow was about $679 million, and last week's net outflow scale significantly narrowed.
* ETH ETF: Net outflow decreased from $542.2 million to $320.1 million.
This indicates that selling pressure has eased, but funds have not yet consistently flowed back in, so the trend reversal cannot be confirmed at this time.
If I had to choose which will see capital inflow first, I currently lean towards BTC.
This judgment is mainly based on fund performance: last week, BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $175.7 million, indicating that buyers are still trying to provide support, though sustainability is insufficient.
In contrast, ETH needs more solid capital improvement to reverse its currently relatively weak performance.
Next, I will focus on two signals:
1. Whether ETFs can continuously$CT has been pumping then dumping these days, a typical small coin exchange pulse, with those chasing highs getting clearly shaken out.
Short position 20x, entered at 0.3884, now at 0.3424, +236.86%; not relying on feeling, waiting for the 4-hour candle to break key support and confirm bull exhaustion before following.
Looking at the 4-hour trend, after the surge the MACD red bars are converging, price is suppressed by the upper Bollinger Band, 0.38 is a resistance level, rebound volume shrinks, bears control the pace. The background is low circulation and a pullback after sentiment cools.
Next focus is on 0.35 resistance and 0.33 support; if there is floating profit, it is recommended to move up the stop loss to protect gains and avoid greed. If volume increases and price returns above 0.38, exit first and wait. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $ETH $BTC Meta handing over data center construction to a joint venture should not be seen simply as "spending less money themselves, so AI returns look better." The subsequent lease agreements must also be examined.
In last year's announced Hyperion partnership, funds managed by Blue Owl hold 80% of the joint venture, while Meta holds 20%. However, Meta also agreed to lease the entire campus once the facility is completed and provide a residual value guarantee with attached conditions.
This is a normal financing and asset arrangement that allows both partners to leverage their respective strengths. What concerns me is that a smaller equity stake only indicates that part of the construction funding is borne by the partner; it does not mean Meta only needs to bear 20% of the project's economic cost.
When evaluating this AI investment, future rent and guarantee conditions must also be included. Comparing only the current incremental advertising revenue with capital expenditures, while ignoring the long-term cost of using the facilities, will result in an overly optimistic return calculation.
Of course, the existence of guarantees does not mean losses have already occurred, nor can the joint venture's debt be directly treated as Meta's own debt. Both extreme calculation methods are convenient but prone to misleading.
During earnings season, I hope to see more complete disclosure of investments: which equipment is purchased outright, which facilities are leased long-term, and what future payment obligations exist. More flexible spending methods are good, but shareholders evaluating returns cannot omit costs just because they take a different form.
#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 Yesterday I was watching $DNA, planning to wait for a pullback to get in, but it never came, stubbornly holding around 0.27, really strong. Recently, most memes on Alpha have peaked at the opening and then steadily declined, which has given me a bit of PTSD.
The unlocking rule is that the team locks their tokens for 12 months first, and only after completing KPIs will they unlock. With poor token price and bad market cap, KPIs are unlikely to be met, so the team won’t get their tokens, won’t pump the price, and 100 million DNA tokens will become worthless. Interests are aligned, which actually benefits retail investors.
Before 10/19, KPI suggestions can still be submitted. If adopted, the reward is about 5000U worth of DNA. Some have already proposed quantitative indicators like agent activity count and real capital thresholds. If you have ideas, you can give it a try.
Personally, I think this project will likely be taken seriously later on, and the most important KPI should be market cap management.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
The core focus of Netflix's Q3 earnings report is not whether revenue meets expectations, but whether profit improvements can offset the slowdown in growth, and whether advertising, price increases, and live content can support the next phase of valuation. The company guides Q3 revenue at about $12.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 12%, with an operating margin expected at 33.2%, significantly higher than 28.2% in the same period last year. Profit improvement mainly comes from the concentrated release of price increase benefits, advancement in advertising monetization, and strengthened cost discipline from recent layoffs of about a thousand employees.
However, pressure on the revenue side is more worth tracking. Q3 revenue growth slowed further compared to Q2's 13.4%, and the full-year guidance was narrowed to $51 billion to $51.4 billion. This indicates that after user base expansion enters a mature phase, growth relies more on increasing revenue per subscriber. The advertising business is highly anticipated, with a 2026 advertising revenue target of about $3 billion, nearly doubling in ad pre-sales, and progress in programmatic advertising and ad suite certification. However, whether advertising revenue can steadily increase still depends on advertiser budgets, fill rates, and viewing duration. Regarding live sports, live content is expected to account for about 5% of the annual content budget but only contributes about 1% of viewing time, serving more as a customer acquisition and ad inventory tool in the short term.
In trading, Netflix's stock price has fallen more than 22% this year, with the market heavily concerned about growth slowdown and valuation premium. If Q3 profits, advertising progress, and 2027 guidance exceed expectations, it may lead to valuation recovery; if advertising monetization pace is slow, content cost pressure rises, or management is conservative about next year's outlook, the stock price may remain under pressure #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins ETF funds collectively "pull back" 🔥 The rebound still lacks a final push
From October 12 to 16, BTC, ETH, and SOL spot ETFs all saw simultaneous net outflows across three channels, totaling about $574 million 💸, with weekly net inflows collectively at zero. This is not a crash signal, but the coordination of funds is clearly insufficient.
BTC outflowed $228.4 million. On Tuesday, it just saw an inflow of $175.7 million, but on Wednesday, $261.4 million flowed out, and on Friday another $82.4 million left — there was some return flow, but it didn’t sustain, with intermittent support.
SOL outflowed $25.5 million, a small amount, but the signal is serious ⚠️: net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling $50.5 million; on Friday alone, $12.7 million, nearly half of the week’s total. Continuous withdrawal is more alarming than a single large outflow.
ETH outflowed $320.1 million, surpassing BTC. From Wednesday to Friday, there were three consecutive days of outflows totaling $259.5 million, with no stable replenishment seen in ETF channels yet.
Of course, ETF subscriptions and redemptions are only part of the buying side and cannot directly conclude a decline. But for the rebound to be more convincing, it needs continuous net inflows over several days: one day is a pulse, three days suggest a direction. What’s missing now is the word "continuous" 🎯
$BTC $ETH $SOL #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Last week, $SNDK dropped from 1600 to just above 1200, with the storage sector being thoroughly beaten down for an entire week. On Monday during the Asian session, taking advantage of the US stock market holiday, the price quietly climbed back above 1340 from around 1250, reaching a high of 1346, a nearly 8% increase. But this rebound has an unavoidable issue—it happened entirely in the futures market, while the spot market with real money has yet to show any signs.
What’s even more worrisome is the distribution of positions in the futures market. Long positions have piled up to 80%, with shorts only at 20%, a crowding level far exceeding that of BTC and ETH during the same period. The price hasn’t yet returned to where it was before last week’s drop, but there are already more longs than then. This kind of structure, once faced with spot selling pressure after the market opens, could lead to reverse volatility much stronger than expected.
The daily candlestick resistance roughly lies between 1360 and 1380, which also happens to be near the opening price of the last 4-hour candle before last Friday’s close. If the price can smoothly reach this level before the US market opens at 9:30 PM tonight, and there are spot buyers willing to take over there, then this repair can be considered to have its first layer of confidence. Conversely, if only futures longs are playing their own tune at that level and spot sell orders flood in once the opening bell rings, the 80% long crowding will turn into a fuse that could ignite at any moment.The A-share robotics sector showed early fluctuations, followed by Figure securing $675 million in financing, finally bringing the hype around humanoid robots from the primary market and traditional stocks into crypto derivatives. $UNITREE surged from $62 to $74, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $41 million. On the four-hour chart, it posted four consecutive bullish candles, with volume five times that of the previous day, directly breaking through the upper boundary of a two-week consolidation range.
Interestingly, the timing window. BTC only rose 1.5% during the same period, the overall market was mostly sideways or slightly pressured, but this X-Perp, which just launched a week ago, showed an independent rhythm. The underlying logic chain is not hard to trace: the US tech sector continues to raise valuations for the robotics track, Figure's massive financing anchors the entire sector's valuation, and Unitree, as a G1 player already commercialized, with low unit price but leading shipment volume, happens to be the mapping target accessible to the crypto market.
However, cross-market linkage is a double-edged sword. The recent combination of a strong US dollar index and high, volatile US Treasury yields is naturally unfriendly to high-volatility, small-cap assets. The strengthening gold, reflecting risk-off sentiment, actually conflicts with the risk appetite needed for the robotics sector. Once US tech stocks experience a pullback or interest rate expectations turn hawkish again, these purely narrative-driven assets are often the first to be hit. This pre-market rebound today is indeed quite strong, especially with BTC spiking above 83k. It really doesn't follow the US stock market's decline; once the US stocks rebound, the strong get stronger. Although I can't be sure why BTC is so resilient this round, I roughly guess it's because the real interest rate expectations have become relatively fixed.
Although we are still in a rate-hiking cycle with about two more hikes totaling 50BP expected, the market consensus is that this rate-hiking cycle is short. So the negative impact is not as strong as anticipated.
Another possibility is that although AI, especially storage, has dropped sharply, this round is different from the one in July. The market is not in widespread panic, or you could say most retail investors have already deleveraged last time. This time prices have dropped a lot but the pain is much less.
So this round of decline might actually be a rotation, fundamentally different from the broad deleveraging in July.
Even from the perspective of long-term interest rates, easing has actually already happened on the Treasury side. The Treasury's quasi "twist operation" and Waller's hawkish rhetoric are at odds. This brings us back to the US version of YCC logic: the Fed hikes nominal short-term rates, the Treasury manages duration and liquidity, and the net effect is favorable for BTC.
In short, since BTC has proven its strength, our mindset should shift from the previous bear market, and our operations should change from shorting on rallies to buying on dips. $BTC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix's Q3 earnings are to be released *after the US market closes on October 20*, so this analysis is based only on pre-release estimates, not on actual results.
*My final thought:* My inclination on the earnings-beat question is slightly *NO*. However, this edge is so small that blindly betting against the market is not wise, especially since the market is currently trading at *YES 72¢*. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Institutional funds weaken, who will see the first inflow, BTC or ETH?
Institutional funds weaken, who will see the first inflow, BTC or ETH?
My view is: it depends on which has stronger "stickiness" to funds.
1. BTC's trump card is "cost consensus." Currently, the price is right around the ETF holding cost line (about 81,500), and whale transfers to exchanges have already stopped. As long as macro interest rates do not worsen, selling pressure naturally eases, and buying can easily convert into direct inflows. It relies on "stanching the bleeding," with a short path and quick effect.
2. ETH's trump card is the "yield structure." Although short-term ETF outflows are even more intense than BTC, its staking rate has soared to a historic high of 36%, locking up a large amount of chips. Additionally, traditional brokers have started offering compliant staking channels, so institutions holding ETH can not only speculate on price movements but also earn interest. It relies on "yield generation," with a longer path but greater elasticity once accepted.
In short: BTC depends on interest rates stabilizing first, ETH depends on staking being priced in. For short-term stability, watch BTC; for potential elasticity, watch ETH. Which do you favor? Let's discuss in the comments👇
$BTC $ETH Today's market superficially looks like a weak recovery, but when you lift the cover, it's all blood.
Let's first look at the most heartbreaking set of data.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks, totaling a hemorrhage of $910 million. BTC is currently trading at $82,292, directly breaking below the average buy-in cost line of about $82,300 for ETF investors.
Translated, this means: the batch of institutional funds that followed BlackRock into the market is now completely trapped.
Spot is bleeding, ETFs are hemorrhaging, and macro concerns about interest rate hikes have not yet dissipated. Logically, this market should be breaking down further, right?
But something strange happened.
When ETH rebounded near $2,400, it directly triggered a brutal short squeeze massacre. In the last hour, 97% of liquidated positions across the network were shorts; in the last 4 hours, about 96% (approximately $80.12 million) of shorts were forcibly closed.
The spot market is bleeding, while the futures market is slaughtering shorts. What does this indicate? It means shorts profited by crashing the spot market but were then precisely targeted and crushed by larger funds in the futures market. Both bulls and bears have entered a bloody close-quarters battle at this level; whoever uses high leverage becomes the sacrifice.
So you see, the total market cap is still shrinking, and funds are desperately flowing back from altcoins to BTC and ETH. This is not a bull market return; it's a defensive consolidation after excessive bleeding. Altcoins are in hemorrhagic shock, and big money is retreating to the trenches.
Here’s the direct strategy:
BTC near $82,292 is in an extremely awkward position. It just broke below the ETF cost line ($82,300), and above it is all trapped positions. Don’t rush to be a martyr and bottom-fish; wait for a volume-backed recovery above $83,000 before talking about a rebound; if it breaks below $81,000, look down to the $80,000 level.
ETH near $2,414 just experienced a short-term short squeeze with exhausted momentum. $2,400 is the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness; holding it means there’s still some soup to drink; breaking below $2,350 means this wave was purely a bull trap short squeeze—once it’s done, withdraw without hesitation.
Spot is bleeding, futures are grinding shorts. In this kind of weak recovery market, the worst thing is chasing rallies and panicking on dips. Since ETFs are all trapped, why do you think you can get out unscathed at this level? Control your hands and wait for the market to choose a direction before placing bets.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Netflix's core logic has changed: traditional subscription user growth has hit a bottleneck, and the room to increase revenue solely through price hikes is becoming increasingly limited. The advertising layer (low-cost plans with ads) is no longer a supplementary business but a second growth curve. Its value is not just in adding new subscriptions but, more importantly, in unlocking advertiser budget pools, increasing ARPU, and offsetting the slowdown in pure subscription user growth. However, there are concerns: the ad model may degrade user viewing experience, and factors such as ad inventory, advertiser willingness to spend, and competition from ad packages by rivals (Disney+, HBO) will determine whether this business can truly deliver growth. The future focus will not be on total user numbers but on monitoring ad plan penetration rates and the share of ad revenue.Next week, the market is expected to remain volatile with a bearish bias, waiting for macroeconomic and capital flow factors to reconfirm the direction. The BTC area around 80,000 USD will become an important boundary between bullish and bearish sentiment; if the long-term US Treasury yields decline and the BTC spot ETF returns to sustained net inflows, conditions will be set for BTC to rebound first after the previous leverage cleanup. However, before these two signals appear, the foundation for a sustained rally remains insufficient. Structurally, a defensive pattern is expected to continue, with "BTC outperforming ETH, and major coins outperforming small- and mid-cap altcoins," as the altcoin season currently lacks a clear capital base. Particular attention should be paid to interest rate expectation changes brought by the approaching Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28. Therefore, next week is more likely to involve repeated battles around the 80,000 USD level with gradual direction selection, rather than a direct start of a one-sided market #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC 80,000 and $ETH 2,500: Breaking it down for clearer insight
80,000 held, but it’s not a strong bull. At the 80,000 strike price, there’s an enormous accumulation of open interest contracts; market makers hold positive Gamma and passively buy to hedge, effectively providing a mechanical buffer for the market. In October, spot ETF net outflows have exceeded $600 million, and the support comes from options hedging flows, not spot buying — the former will expire and disappear.
ETH is even more exposed. In 24 hours, 2,955 new tokens were minted, with only 13.59 burned, accounting for 0.46%; L2 solutions divert mainnet fees, starving the burn mechanism of fuel, resulting in a monthly inflow of over 80,000 tokens into the market. 2,500 is just an emotional recovery after a deep drop, not an on-chain turnaround.
Both share a common underlying theme: macro liquidity hasn’t loosened, but supply is expanding. Prices can hold and even rebound, but sustainability is questionable. The real signals will come from the next PCE and employment reports, as well as where positions move after options expiration.
$ZEC
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $CT is definitely a wild coin this round! Today Upbit just announced adding KRW, BTC, and USDT trading pairs. As soon as the news came out, it surged to $0.44356, then quickly dropped back to around $0.399. A 4-hour big bullish candle with volume, it surged high then gave back about 10%. No matter how you look at it, it seems more like a pump from exchange news. Also, the top five addresses hold 52.81% of the total supply, and the top ten hold 64.08%. With such high concentration, everyone should think carefully! CT isn’t completely without business though; Concrete’s TVL is about $1.2 billion. But compared to peers like $MORPHO and $YFI, MORPHO has about $11.1 billion TVL, YFI about $200 million, and CT’s protocol revenue in the past 30 days is only about $43,000, similar to YFI’s roughly $44,000. With so much locked up, how much real value can actually stay with the CT token? So my view is CT is indeed very wild in the short term, driven by exchange news and aggressive capital speculation, but whether it can surge again is another matter.No one bets on a one-sided move before the earnings night: NFLX closed last Friday at $70.53 (-2.86%), with $70 as the critical line.
Tomorrow (10/20) after market close is the earnings release, with results expected early Wednesday morning Beijing time.
Consensus expects EPS of $0.82 (+39.7%) and revenue of $12.87B (+12%); all the positives are in advertising: prepaid ad commitments nearly doubled, with a 2026 ad target of $3 billion.
The negatives are clear: US app churn rate +16.6%, viewing time down 5%; Huber downgraded to Underweight with a $70 price target.
Options pricing implies ±9% volatility post-earnings, with a break below $70 potentially dropping to $64 (a two-year low).
My view: the bet is not on subscriber growth, but whether advertising can take over.
Expectations have been washed out (down 25% this year), but below $70 only the 52-week low of $65.08 remains.
Post-earnings outlook: if EPS and guidance both beat and advertising holds up, expect a rise above $75 (50-day moving average) and then strengthening; if it breaks $70, look for $64.
Invalidation: if earnings beat expectations and advertising beats, this view is void.
Which side are you betting on: advertising driving a stock rebound, or user loss dragging down earnings?
$NFLX $META $DIS
#EarningsSeason #Netflix $PUMP vs $LSK : Two Rallies, Different Smart Money Signals
Both tokens are gaining, but positioning reveals different risks.
$PUMP is up 4.42%. Shorts dominate with $29M against $17.3M in longs. Both sides remain profitable, while fresh buying exceeds selling.
$LSK is up 5.31%. Shorts hold $1.38M against $546K in longs. Short sellers are profitable, while longs face losses.
My view: PUMP shows stronger immediate buying pressure. LSK faces greater selling pressure despite its rally. $DNA This 20x short position entered at 0.2461 is now at 0.2267, with an unrealized profit of 157%. The profit is substantial, but after this sharp drop at 20x leverage, don’t let victory go to your head.
The market has been continuously dropping from 0.2757 (15 min) and 0.3184 (1 hour), with a low of 0.2191. The 1-hour MA5 (0.2493), MA10 (0.2578), and MA20 (0.2588) are all aligned bearish, and the 15-minute chart also shows a breakdown with acceleration. However, after consecutive large bearish candles in the short term, there are initial signs of a bottom near 0.2191. The intraday drop is -10.03%, and technical rebounds are likely at lows. The funding rate is -0.064%, indicating bearish crowding; shorts should be cautious of a short squeeze risk.
Key levels: Support at 0.2191; if broken, look for 0.2128 (1h previous low). Resistance at 0.2327 (15 min MA5), 0.2459 (15 min MA10), and core defense at 0.2493 (1h MA5). The entry cost line at 0.2461 is now safe.
The strategy is clear: close at least half to lock in profits, move stop loss for the remaining position up to 0.2459 or even the cost line to avoid losses. If 0.2191 breaks, keep a small position to target 0.2128, but do not chase shorts after a sharp drop. A 157% unrealized profit on a 20x small coin position is just paper wealth; only realized profits are secure. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #嘉信开放BTC转账，德银布局托管
Charles Schwab opens BTC transfers, Deutsche Bank prepares custody. This looks like legacy finance catching up, but in reality, the capital channels are just switching valves.
Charles Schwab integrates BTC and ETH directly into securities account views for tens of millions of brokerage accounts. Transfers are phased in, with whitelist addresses plus a 24-hour cooling period, and withdrawal limits are tightly controlled. Deutsche Bank is starting with institutional custody in Germany, later expanding to stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and digital bonds.
My judgment: This is not banks turning into crypto circles, but rather putting crypto assets into a compliance cage.
• The benefit is real institutions, real accounts, real transaction flows. After ETF capital flows, spot channels will continue to penetrate traditional brokerages.
• The cost is that self-custody space is squeezed, withdrawals are like passing security checks, and large deposits and withdrawals will increasingly depend on compliance identity.
• This won’t cause an immediate explosive rally in the market, but it will raise the long-term support base. BTC and ETH benefit first; later listings like SOL depend on how brokerage menus expand.
Don’t misread this as free withdrawals. Schwab’s current logic is crypto exposure within brokerage accounts, not giving you back on-chain freedom; Deutsche Bank focuses on the institutional side, which is different from ordinary retail wallets.
To look at it inversely: while the market is still focused on short-term spikes, traditional finance has already laid out custody, clearing, and transfer interfaces. By the time everyone realizes this, cheap chips will no longer be in the same place.
Long-term bullishness remains unchanged, but don’t treat institutional entry as a mindless buy signal. Position sizing and stop-losses are still your own responsibility; don’t hand over the keys and forget to back them up.$SNDK SanDisk "resurrected" today along with the market!
Previously, crude oil plunged, causing panic selling in the market, and SanDisk dropped along with the Nasdaq. But looking closely today—the NAND flash contract prices are still rising, the demand for SSDs in AI data centers is only increasing, and Trump has nothing to do with Russia or SanDisk! It was purely a mistaken sell-off. Today's rebound is the first step of value recovery. Brothers, the logic for storage stocks hasn't changed: the hotter AI gets, the more expensive hard drives become, and the more SanDisk profits!Let's put the conclusion first: I judge that this round of correction is nearing its end, and the probability of breaking below the 80,000 mark is low; the direction is still bullish. Here are the reasons. There is an interesting pattern on the weekly chart. In the recent two corrections, the price first broke below the previous low, triggering a round of panic selling, then recovered to launch a counterattack. A break below is not a signal to turn bearish; it’s more like clearing the way for an upward move. This kind of high-level oscillating decline is essentially a transfer of long and short positions, or a liquidation of long leverage. The intended effect is to make those who can’t hold at the high levels give up their chips. So the consecutive bearish weekly candles in the past two weeks should not be interpreted as a bull-to-bear reversal. At this early stage, a roughly 10% correction is within a healthy range. Some may ask, why say the correction is almost over? I compared it with the previous correction: the last one lasted nearly a month from start to finish, this one has been about 26-27 days from the peak; the last retracement was about 9%, this one is also around 9%. Both duration and magnitude match, indicating they are the same type of correction. Extending it further would be difficult because a direct shift from oscillating decline to a sharp drop would not be a correction but a reversal. If a deeper pullback is to come, it would have to wait until the price surpasses the psychological 100,000 mark, which would create conditions for a large-scale liquidation of longs at high levels, but that is not the case now. Let me clarify the lower buying zone. This overall upward trend’s downward correction falls between Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618, corresponding to the price range of 81,200 to 79,700. This range has been tested multiple times before without forming an effective breakdown; the weekend’s wick was the most#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
BTC reached a high of 83100, but the trading volume is only half of the normal level
The price touched 83157.9, but the 7-day average daily spot + ETF trading volume is only about $6.8 billion, lower than about 90% of trading days since January 2024. The price went up, but the volume did not keep up; this is the most notable divergence today.
What changed? During the surge to 83100, the trading volume not only did not increase but remained flat at the floor.
Why is this worth attention? Without spot volume supporting the rise, the fuel is not new buying but rather existing leverage and short covering. Open Interest is decreasing, and the funding rate remains positive, indicating longs are paying to hold positions, but positions are shrinking, not new inflows.
Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards a corrective rebound under existing stock game rather than a trend-level volume breakout.
The key thing to watch next: whether spot trading volume can return to normal levels. If volume continues to be absent, the sell wall above 83100 will be difficult to truly break through. Volume is the sole judge of this rally.
Feel free to discuss in the comments: do you think this is a shakeout or a bull trap? The Middle East is pushing oil prices up, the Federal Reserve refuses to ease, global assets are all getting hit, can Bitcoin really dodge the blow?
Tensions in the Middle East rise → crude oil surges → inflation expectations revive → CPI exceeds expectations → funds rush to US Treasuries, US Treasury yields break 5.1% → the dollar strengthens, global dollars flow back to the US → liquidity is drained → Nasdaq drops 5.5%, semiconductors fall for eight consecutive days, AI chains collapse first as a warning.
What about Bitcoin?
Did it fall? Yes.
But compared to US stocks and altcoins, it’s a "lighter fall"—don’t mistake that for strength.
Trading volume has dropped to about 43% of normal, indicating this isn’t a bottom accumulation bull run; even the main players don’t want to move, all waiting for the FOMC decision on October 28.
Technically, don’t get too excited:
The daily and weekly charts showed a "bullish engulfing" pattern in the morning session, and there is some oversold rebound on smaller timeframes;
But the daily chart is still in a bearish alignment, with price suppressed by the 20-day moving average at 83,500;
So intraday, I won’t chase longs; instead, I’m looking to short in batches around 82,600–83,500,
Watching 81,800 below first, then 80,300 further down.
In short,
Macro is draining liquidity, technicals are compressing like a spring, and the main players are waiting for the rate decision.
Trying to catch a rebound now is just grabbing scraps and risking the main loss.
Don’t believe the bull is back before the 28th.
Bitcoin isn’t standing alone now; it’s just falling slower while waiting for news.
The real direction will only be clear after the FOMC sets the tone on rate hikes/no hikes/hawkish or dovish stance. $BTC Seeing this picture posted by this blogger reminded me of my past self, having done many similar things. This blogger bought 4stock, a low-quality coin, without setting a stop loss, and just stubbornly held through the decline, losing 93%. It's basically no different from going to zero. Altcoins are like this, and low-quality coins on the chain even more so, on the road to zero.
I remember last year, everyone was hyping that x402, the leading base chain coin ping. At first, cx said x402 was the underlying technology for payment and settlement layers, how impressive. So I bought $5,000 worth of ping around a $50 million market cap, and ended up with $500. Looking at ping now, if you don't cut losses, even $500 would be gone.
Later this year, I remember a token swap protocol called upeg came out. This kind of narrative actually happened once before, and I didn't really believe it at first. In the end, I got fomo and bought in, but this time I bought less, only $1,000, feeling uncertain. I bought at $17 million market cap, then it dropped to $1 million, I cut losses and got about $60 out, now it's also zero.
The risk of low-quality coins on the chain is much higher than spot risk on exchanges. Spot coins on exchanges might still have a chance to rebound, but on-chain coins basically don't. I now strictly control my position size: for on-chain low-quality coins, at most $3,000; for altcoin spot on exchanges, at most $10,000. Position management corresponds to risk management—don't let altcoins destroy all your chips and your life.Brothers, sigh, $BTC gave a surprise today, then pulled back again. What exactly is it trying to do?
Look at the screenshot, I entered a long position at 81,468.9, now the mark price has risen to 82,762.8, with an unrealized profit of 4.76%. This surge directly swallowed the previous slow decline.
What is it trying to do? The intention is actually very clear. First, to clear out the floating short positions; when it dropped earlier, retail traders were all shorting, and this pullback is to sweep stop losses on those short orders. Second, to create a false breakout illusion to attract retail traders chasing highs to enter and take the risk.
But think carefully, the trapped positions above are still heavy. The 83,000 to 85,000 range is not easy to pass. Without absolutely massive positive news, this kind of rally is most likely just a shakeout pattern with ups and downs, tricking you into chasing longs.
So if this long position has made a profit, don’t be greedy. Take profits when you see gains, or raise your stop loss. If it can’t break through the resistance zone, be ready to reverse at any time. In this kind of market, don’t be fooled by short-term craziness into getting on board; staying clear-headed is the most important.
$ETH $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ BTC has reclaimed $82,000, essentially a "weak recovery" after a bearish suppression rather than a trend reversal. The premise for stabilization is to first complete chip turnover in the $81,500–$82,000 range.
Technical aspect: Resistance above is denser than support below. Short-term support is concentrated between $81,500 and $82,000, with a more critical defense zone at $80,700–$81,100; above, $82,500–$82,800 forms the first dense resistance area, and $84,000–$84,300 is an even stronger resistance. BTC is currently stuck in a "can't fall further, but also can't rise smoothly" squeeze. The $82,600–$82,700 level is the key threshold to judge short-term strength; until it is firmly held, any rebound can only be considered an oversold recovery.
On the capital side, there is a notable divergence: ETFs are withdrawing, while whales are accumulating. Since October, spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of about $910 million, once pushing BTC below $80,000. The average cost line for ETF holders is around $82,300, with some positions already at the edge of floating losses. However, net deposits from whales to exchanges have stopped since late August, and stablecoin balances on exchanges have risen from $21.7 billion to $30.5 billion in 30 days, an increase of about 40%, indicating that large funds are waiting for entry signals rather than exiting. ETF capital flow is a "fast variable" for short-term pricing, while whale behavior is a "slow variable" for mid-term bottoms. The divergence between the two means there is support below $80,000, but upward movement requires ETF flows to turn positive again to ignite momentum. Babylon, Stacks, Core Three Kingdoms: Who Truly Solves the Trillion-Dollar Market Cap Challenge of BTCFi
The three main routes in the BTCFi track each have their trade-offs; none perfectly solves all problems.
Stacks uses PoX (Proof of Transfer), with all transactions ultimately anchored to Bitcoin settlement, and rewards can be directly issued in native BTC. Its advantage is that rewards are in the native currency, and the ecosystem started early; the downside is that the underlying layer is not EVM-native, raising the developer entry barrier, limiting scaling speed, and the sBTC solution still involves some trust assumptions.
Babylon relies on Taproot time locks, keeping BTC on the Bitcoin mainnet, mainly providing economic security for various PoS chains, functioning as a modular staking layer. It is BTC re-staking infrastructure that can externally output security but is not itself a complete EVM application chain and does not directly host a full DeFi ecosystem.
Core uses Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, employing Bitcoin CLTV native scripts; BTC does not cross-chain or custody but only sets time locks to obtain consensus voting rights. The base layer inherits Bitcoin's hash power security, with a native EVM on top, providing a one-stop platform for DEX, lending, and other BTCFi applications. The Hermes hard fork reduces confirmation time to 6 seconds. The downside is that rewards are in CORE tokens, which have high price volatility.
The three focus areas are completely different: Stacks emphasizes BTC yield; Babylon emphasizes modular security output; Core emphasizes a complete EVM BTCFi public chain.Today, altcoins have finally come back to life, and the market looks extremely comfortable! I have to say a few words about the leader ARB.
$ARB is now at 0.196, up 9.48% in one day. This stock isn’t just pumped randomly today; Standard Chartered just initiated coverage, setting a $10 target for 2030; monthly revenue run-rate has surged to just over $5 million, a 5x increase since July; the volume of short positions liquidated is more than twice that of long positions, clearly a short squeeze. So it’s bouncing hard. But I advise you not to rush in too aggressively. The fee rate is still negative, just climbing up a bit from very negative, indicating that people still don’t dare to be truly bullish. The most annoying thing is the unlocking schedule, nearly 93 million tokens released every month until early next year, with another big unlock on November 15. If it can’t hold the 0.19 to 0.20 level, it’s just a rebound.
$ZEC at 1164, +7.24%; $UNI at 7.43, +6.09%, both just following the broader market, no ARB-style drama. ARB is definitely the strongest today, but that looming unlock is still hanging over it. The other two are pure followers, don’t chase. Just my random thoughts, not investment advice. Elon Musk plans to give SpaceX shares to every child in the U.S.: "Next year, I will give every child in America one share of SpaceX stock that I own."
How big is the scale? He holds about 6.42 billion shares (48.4%), valued at approximately $937.3 billion based on a private market transaction price of $146 per share. The U.S. population aged 0–18 is about 72 million, meaning roughly 72 million shares would be distributed, worth about $10.5 billion.
The trigger is Anthropic: this morning it announced allocating about 20% of its shares to establish a public welfare fund, initially allocating 5% (valued at about $100 billion based on a $2 trillion valuation), with an additional 2% added for every 50% increase in valuation. Musk responded: "I suggest giving it directly to the public, and I intend to do so." A billion-dollar donation was made a few hours later.
But there are three practical issues: SpaceX is a private company with no public liquidity for its shares; minors holding shares involves trusts and tax matters; and there is no concrete plan yet for "next year."
This amount represents about 1.1% of his holdings and is, for 72 million children, a piece of paper that cannot be cashed in for now.In the futures market, a decline in inventory is often interpreted as a positive signal, but experienced traders will still ask: Is the demand genuinely picking up, or has the supply side made adjustments? When I look at token buybacks and burns, I also tend to first check the ledger and don’t rush to follow the headlines.
Aster’s recent update states that from October 5 to 19, the platform will use 99% of daily fee income for buybacks, distributing about 2,721,700 ASTER tokens to stakers, and burning an equivalent amount from the team’s allocation; the cumulative burn has exceeded 210 million tokens. It’s important to distinguish that buyback distribution and team allocation burn are two separate actions.
My judgment is that the mechanism is somewhat positive, with direct benefits going to stakers, but the burn quantity should not be directly equated with price support. Fee buybacks link platform operations with token demand, but 99% is just a proportion; the actual impact depends on fee income. The team allocation burn reduces potential supply but cannot alone determine overall circulating supply changes; tokens distributed to stakers do not equal tokens exiting circulation, which is quite different from simply looking at inventory reduction.
I prefer to see this as a window into operational quality rather than a signal for price movement. Are there others who have transitioned from traditional markets? Regarding this "buyback distribution and equivalent team burn" arrangement, do you focus more on whether fees can be sustained or on supply reduction?$BTC is expected to surge to 90000 before the midterm elections?
The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is positive news for BTC to hit 90000, with these key points:
1️⃣ Trump has a strong motive to create a "ceasefire in sight" before the election—to suppress oil prices and stabilize the election situation. Headlines will repeat, and market sentiment will move first.
2️⃣ Zelensky's tactical concession: stop attacking Russian refineries in exchange for "Patriot" missiles, willing to continue talks. Partial ceasefire/energy ceasefire is possible, giving the market room to imagine.
3️⃣ Transmission chain is smooth: ceasefire expectations → oil prices fall → inflation cools → interest rate pressure eases → funds flow back into risk assets. BTC has already voted with short squeeze liquidations, surging past 83,000.
4️⃣ Food is a major inflation factor: if Black Sea ports open, accumulated grain will be released, suppressing food inflation and further strengthening rate cut expectations.
5️⃣ Three conditions must resonate for a surge to 90000: ceasefire implementation + oil price near 80 + weak economic data. Once all positives align, 90000 is not a dream; if only ceasefire headlines appear without oil price and data support, it will be a pulse spike.
Trump creates a ceasefire pulse, oil prices + inflation + liquidity cooperate, BTC leverages this momentum to surge to 90000; logically, it makes sense.👜 Four small coins in four different states, each going its own way
$HYPE 78.091, down 0.59 points, the most stable among the four 📊Hyperliquid operates an independent L1 order book perp, broke 80 down to 78 but trading depth remains, on-chain contract trades are at the top tier, not comparable in volume to the dumped small coins. The entire contract sector is consolidating, the top on-chain perp will be re-evaluated, trading depth is its trump card.
$BICO 0.01630, down 2.04 points, account abstraction layer 📈There are still competitors like Smart Account and Web3Auth in the sector fighting for position, the market currently does not pay a premium for infrastructure, 0.01630 is grinding, integration volume is slowly accumulating, pricing will come only after the sector matures, not at the paying stage yet.
$SOL 102.72, down 0.87 points, high beta public chain 🔷Solana ecosystem is active but funds returned to BTC and were left behind, no independent catalyst at 102 level, it will move only when the market volume picks up again, activity does not equal token pricing.
$RE 0.38090, down 4.60 points, the hardest hit among the four 😴Small RWA insurance pool is thinnest, platform broke from 0.41 to 0.38, thin volume with no support, a single sell order crushed it by over four points, logic unchanged but price suppressed.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ $RE crash warning, refusal to disclose prepaid insurance premiums, annual inflation rate of 100%, 40 million tokens about to be unlocked for dumping, market turning bearish, this altcoin has already started its halving journey.
The prepaid insurance premiums of RE were supposed to be disclosed in September, but the disclosure has been delayed for over a month. The RE team may hide the truth of the crash, but the market has revealed the truth. RE has dropped 35% in the past half month, but this is just the beginning. Altcoins crashing 95% is common. In December, RE will unlock 40 million tokens for dumping, and every June and December thereafter will unlock 126 million tokens for dumping, equivalent to an annual inflation rate of 100%. Buying cryptocurrency is buying cognition. Compared to gold's annual inflation rate of 1.5% and Bitcoin's 0.8%, RE's 100% inflation rate is jaw-dropping. Moreover, over time, more tokens of the same type will be issued, as there are no barriers to issuing digital currencies. The US stock market allows investment through digital currency platforms, which will also negatively impact the capital absorption effect of altcoins. Combined with the bearish market factors, it is expected that by December, RE's price will fall below 0.15. $ZEC brothers, this ZEC token is really something; the more you watch it, the more you realize the market maker is a true master of psychology.
Looking at the timeline over a longer period, this script is really fascinating.
Previously, ZEC skyrocketed from the bottom all the way to 1700, and everyone is familiar with the market maker's playbook: using short positions as fuel. Around the US stock market open, they leveraged massive short positions to violently control and push the price up. Short sellers were forced to liquidate and buy back, and retail investors, seeing the price rise, frantically followed suit, artificially driving the price to the 1700 peak.
But now the play has changed.
Currently, those stubborn short positions in the market have been thoroughly washed out; the market maker no longer has that much short fuel. So how do they play now?
They exploit the liquidity vacuum during the Asian early trading session.
Every time the price dips, the market maker suddenly launches a sharp rally during the Asian early session (roughly 6 AM to 9 AM).
Why cause a stir at this time?
Because European and American institutions are asleep then, and market depth is extremely thin. The market maker doesn’t need to spend much real money to easily push the price up.
What’s the essence of this play?
Before, it was "killing with a borrowed knife" (killing shorts to pump their own coin price); now it’s "fellow villagers, don’t leave" (using early session rallies to mask chip distribution).
Because the overhead trapped positions above are too heavy, the market maker doesn’t want to spend big money on a real breakout. Instead, they do several "pulse-like rallies" during the weakest liquidity windows to maintain heat, while tricking those wanting to short into entering before killing them, or fooling bottom-fishers to get stuck halfway up the mountain Busy at work during the day, no time to look closely, but at night I spread out the market data and came across this update from Aster, which eased my drowsiness a bit 🌙. Using 99% of daily fee income for buybacks is indeed an eye-catching ratio, but I still reread "where the bought-back tokens go."
According to this disclosure, from October 5 to 19, Aster used 99% of daily fee income for buybacks, distributing about 2,721,700 $ASTER to stakers, while an equivalent amount from the team allocation was burned; the total cumulative burn has exceeded 210 million tokens.
My judgment: this feels more like a strengthening of interest alignment rather than a direct pass for short-term price gains. Distributing tokens to stakers after buyback is not the same as burning them immediately; in this case, the burn corresponds to the team allocation, so the two parts should not be conflated as the same kind of supply reduction.
Two points keep me watching: fees provide the source for buybacks, but 99% is just a ratio—the actual intensity depends on future income; the simultaneous reduction of the team allocation, I prefer to see as a constraint on the team’s share rather than inferring that market selling pressure has disappeared.
A reminder to myself: the more striking the numbers at night, the clearer I need to see the flow of funds. Who else is still awake at this hour, watching Aster’s fee changes or the token flow after staking distribution?"$174 Million Liquidated, Shorts Took the Full Brunt"
In the past 24 hours, BTC liquidations amounted to about $174 million, with short liquidations at $162 million and longs only $11.74 million. Shorts were collectively forced out during the rally.
What changed? The liquidation structure is heavily skewed, with shorts accounting for over 90%, and longs almost absent.
Why is this noteworthy? It indicates that the recent rally from around 82,000 was mainly fueled by short stop-losses and forced liquidations, not by active long entries. The short covering buying is "one-off" and will be gone once exhausted.
Which observation is more supported currently? It leans towards a "short squeeze rebound" rather than a trend reversal. The rebound is sharp but lacks a solid base because the price is driven by passive buying, not active bullish capital.
What to watch next: whether the short liquidation wave is starting to wane. If short liquidation volume drops significantly but the price holds, it means real buying is taking over; if the short "fuel" burns out and the price immediately falls back, the nature is clear.
Feel free to discuss in the comments: After shorts are fully cleared, who will take the next baton? $BTC