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#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The text itself most likely falls near the guidance range: revenue about $12.86–12.88 billion, EPS about $0.82, with the advertising revenue doubling trajectory intact. The real points of divergence lie in three “soft signals” from the earnings call: the pace of advertising revenue recognition and unit monetization efficiency, the qualitative description of Q4 and 2027 viewing time trends, and the initial tone on content spending discipline under Peter Rice’s leadership. The 9.3% implied volatility priced by the options market reflects the market’s caution toward the scenario of “meeting numbers but loosening narrative” — at this juncture, merely “meeting guidance” may not be enough to reverse the cautious sentiment; the market needs incremental evidence on the quality of growth.BTC liquidation level near 80,000, data overview
The liquidation chart shows: the last long position on Hyperliquid was about $97.87 million at 40x leverage, liquidated at $79,828, about 1.5% from the current price. Above, short liquidity clusters between 82,500—83,000.
The price is currently squeezed between two liquidation pools. Touching the lower pool may trigger strong long liquidation selling pressure, while touching the upper pool may cause short covering. The liquidation level itself does not determine direction; the key is whether open interest and funding rates change synchronously after being touched: a volume-increasing break with rising open interest indicates active shorting; a wick pulled back is mostly a liquidation impulse.$SOXS dropped 10% today.
If you only know "the market went up so the shorts got crushed," that's a correct but trivial statement, and not quite accurate. $SOXS is a 3x short leveraged token, and its decay mechanism is much more interesting than that conclusion.
First, the mechanism: leveraged tokens automatically rebalance every day at 00:00 UTC—if the price rises 1%, the 3x short has to sell 3% more of its position to maintain the 3x leverage. This action itself is selling off, effectively selling you out. BTC rose 1.24% today, which theoretically means a 3.72% decay for $SOXS, plus friction from Binance/OKX platform risk controls, the actual decay reached 10%, indicating accumulation over the past few days.
Next, the structure: BTC has been pulled up from 76k, with the center of gravity moving up for four consecutive days. A slow bull market is the cruelest for 3x short products—not a sudden stop-loss on one day, but a daily boiling frog effect. People holding heavy positions in $SOXS probably still think they are just "stuck."
Lesson for ordinary users: leveraged tokens are not long-term tools for "shorting the market." They are designed for intraday directional trading, not for trend holding. Holding them as a trend position will have decay eat you up, even if your directional call is ultimately correct.
BTC is now at 82,768. What do you think, at the 83k level, how many people are still holding on to 3x short products? $SOXSBTC's new high this time was reached on low volume
At noon, the hourly candle showed BTC touching 82,882 with a trading volume of only 33.68 million — at 11 o'clock, the pullback had a volume of 57.12 million, so the new high actually shrank by 40% in volume.
◆ BTC | Thin volume rise, better to pause before chasing highs
If you want to go long, wait for a pullback to 82,500–82,000, and enter after the hourly candle stabilizes; if volume picks up and it breaks above 82,882, then look at 83,000, but don't reach out without volume. If the hourly candle closes below 82,000, exit and watch 81,500; if it closes below 80,800, the whole segment is invalid.
◆ ETH | Stuck at 2,430, fourth time testing previous high
At 10 o'clock it touched 2,438.4 but didn't follow through, ETH/BTC at 0.02938 is still at the floor. Buy on pullback at 2,400–2,390, exit if it breaks 2,356, stand firm above 2,438 and look at 2,450.
Derivatives data shows BTC fee rate at 0.0037%, ETH at 0.0089%, both near the floor, not a short squeeze — money is coming in with leverage, but not rushing to rise.
A new high on low volume looks lively, but entering now risks standing on the peak.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #Institutional funds weaken, who will see the first inflow, BTC or ETH? Crypto ETFs bleed for a week: $BTC outflows of 228 million, $ETH suffers a brutal 320 million outflow, are institutions really quitting?
The recent continuous adjustment in the crypto market has finally given the most authentic feedback on the capital side—demand from institutional funds is clearly weakening.
According to the latest data, from October 12 to 16, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $228.4 million. This not only ended the inflow trend of previous weeks but also indicates that against the backdrop of high US Treasury yields and volatile macro expectations, institutions are withdrawing funds from high levels and choosing to wait and see.
But compared to BTC, Ethereum is even more severely hit. During the same period, ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow as high as $320.1 million, with outflows even exceeding BTC. This is an extremely dangerous signal: during the market adjustment period, ETH is becoming the asset institutions prioritize abandoning.
Why has this situation occurred?
First, the macro liquidity drain effect intensifies. The 10-year US Treasury yield once surged above 5.3%, and the allure of risk-free rates makes institutions more inclined to allocate funds to safe government bonds rather than highly volatile crypto assets. The pursuit of profit and avoidance of risk by funds is directly reflected in the ETF net outflows.
Second, ETH’s faith is undergoing a more severe test. BTC’s outflow of 228 million is still supported by the “digital gold” safe-haven narrative, and selling pressure from institutions like Grayscale has stabilized; but ETH’s 320 million outflow shows institutions have extremely little confidence in Ethereum’s short-term performance. Recently, Ethereum spot ETFs have bled for consecutive days, and the price structure formed a huge “M top” between 2,365 and 2,775, so it’s no surprise that funds are voting with their feet.
Third, profit-taking from earlier gains. Whether BTC or ETH, after months of price increases, a large amount of profit-taking positions have accumulated. When macro uncertainties increase (such as sticky inflation and repeated rate hike expectations), some institutions choose to cash out, turning ETFs directly into cash machines.
What does the bleeding of funds mean?
The most direct impact is the lack of fuel for price increases. Without incremental funds pushing, relying only on existing on-exchange funds to compete, any rebound will be fragile and short-lived. Every recent surge followed by a fall is essentially funds using positive news to sell off.
Looking ahead, extreme caution is needed in the short term. If ETF outflows continue to expand next week, BTC may face deeper correction tests (such as testing 80,000 or even lower), and ETH may completely lose the critical 2,400 support.
Institutions are withdrawing funds, and the market is bleeding. Until ETF capital flow turns positive, all “bull comeback” slogans are just self-deception. Hold your hands, watch more and act less, and wait for the wind to come.Netflix is reporting earnings tonight, but I'm actually more interested in the advertising business rather than just guessing whether the earnings will beat expectations.
However, I think the real highlight of this earnings report is not whether revenue can still grow, but the quality of that growth.
In the past, people mainly focused on Netflix's subscriber count, price hikes, and hit content. Now, the advertising business is gradually becoming a new variable: can it bring more revenue to the company without significantly harming user experience? Are advertisers willing to keep investing? How much profit will the new ad revenue ultimately retain?
These questions are more important than just a few percentage points of revenue growth.
Of course, we shouldn't overestimate the advertising business. The ad market is cyclical, content production has costs, and there are limits to how much users will tolerate ads. Growth in ad revenue does not necessarily mean profits will grow in tandem.
When I look at these kinds of earnings reports, what I fear most is focusing only on the words "beat expectations." The market trades on expectation gaps; if good results are already priced in, even a great report might not push the stock higher. Conversely, if the market underestimates the monetization potential of the advertising business, the real surprises might be hidden in the details.
So this time, I will focus on the advertising business's growth guidance, profit margins, and management's comments on the upcoming quarters, rather than just whether revenue hits $12.86 billion.
What do you think? Is Netflix's future value more in its subscription members or in the growth curve of advertising?
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #HBM4量产能否推动SK海力士盈利再创新高？ Is it a continuation of strength or the final struggle? The market's direction always moves toward the side with the greatest profit.#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins A few days ago, I was observing $BTC in the $80.5k–$81.5k range
The $80k level held, and the market still looks to be range-bound
So going long on paper is reasonable
I ultimately did not take action
I went back to review this decision with Quant AI to see which factors actually hold up
The range itself is fine
In a range-bound market, buying near support and aiming for the middle or upper part of the range is a reasonable idea
But the entry conditions were not clean
Most of the pullback happened over the weekend, liquidity was thin, and there was no clear accumulation or confirmation before the price rebound
Jumping in with static limit orders would expose the position to the risk of deeper wicks below $80k
Quant’s conclusion was that skipping this trade was the better decision
I gave up a small portion of upside but avoided the high risk of being stopped out before real volume returned
What was useful to me was not whether this trade would succeed
But seeing the difference between identifying a level and actually having a clean entry reason
Next time, I’d rather wait for a pullback confirmation or some kind of confirmation signal instead of placing a direct limit order at support $ETH $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ CFTC is advancing the Reg CAM crypto asset market framework, allowing voluntary federal regulation. This signals a shift from merely enforcing rules to providing guidance, which is a positive factor for the industry in the mid to long term. However, calmly looking at it, this is currently just a proposed rule notice, not an effective regulation.
Voluntariness has conditions; the leverage layer is being prioritized for incorporation, while the spot layer remains out of CFTC's reach. In the short term, this acts as a sentiment stabilizer, not as incremental capital. The framework addresses whether it is legal to operate, but does not address who will take long positions.
True confirmation of benefits depends on whether BTC can hold key moving averages, and whether positions and funding rates genuinely rebound. The story is the bricks; the support is the wall. Regulatory news is not a buy signal; control your hands and wait for the market to speak. $BTC $ETH
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ Which will see capital inflow first, BTC or ETH? For now, I lean more towards BTC, but not because of a "stronger Bitcoin faith."
According to the daily aggregated data from Farside, from October 12 to 16, BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $228.4 million, while ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $320.1 million. The capital scale for ETH in this channel was originally smaller, yet the absolute outflow was larger, at least indicating that the redemption pressure last week deserves serious attention.
However, today is Monday morning Beijing time, and US trading on Monday hasn't started yet. The data we can verify now is still from last week, so don't write the current price rebound as "ETF funds have already returned this new week."
I tend to first observe BTC's recovery because its capital pressure in this data set is relatively lighter. But this is just a hypothesis to be tested; a single week's flow cannot represent all institutions nor guarantee the future.
What can truly change the judgment is whether the inflow can continue and whether it is contributed by multiple products together. If ETH is the first to show more sustained buying, I will also adjust my view; there is no need to stubbornly hold on to the initial judgment.
When the market weakens, it's easiest to pick the asset you like as the winner. I prefer to first admit my bias and then leave room for it to be overturned by data. US trading hasn't started on Monday yet, so there's no need to rush to write the answer now.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #Institutional funds weaken, who will see the return flow first, BTC or ETH?
In my view, $BTC is more likely to see institutional funds return first. The reasons are as follows
As of mid-October 2026, US spot crypto ETFs continue to face pressure:
During the week of October 12–16, $BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $228 million, while ETH ETFs had a net outflow of about $320 million (ETH outflow was larger, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing the majority).
In relative terms, ETH's redemption pressure is much higher than BTC's (about 2% of AUM for ETH, only about 0.2% for BTC). In the past 30 days: BTC still had a net inflow of about $2.3 billion, while ETH had a net outflow (about -$200 million). The macro environment has cooled overall institutional participation, making funds more cautious about crypto assets.
BTC is the most mainstream entry channel for institutions (positioned as "digital gold"), with ETF AUM far larger than ETH (about $100 billion vs. around $15 billion). It has deeper liquidity and relatively controllable volatility, making it more favored in the early stages of risk appetite recovery.
BTC outflows are lighter and recover faster. For example, on October 13, BTC had a single-day inflow of about $176 million (far exceeding ETH's about $25 million), and BTC is clearly stronger over a 30-day period. Historical patterns also show that institutional fund returns usually start with BTC and then spread to ETH. Right now $BTC is stuck just below a resistance level, in a sensitive position where it could go either way.
Bitcoin is being suppressed around $82,500–$82,800; if it can't break through, it can only be considered a weak rebound, not a true reversal. The key hurdle is $83,000–$83,500; only if it holds above this can it be considered strong.
Below, near $79,828, there is a large long liquidation zone. If it truly breaks below $80,000, it could trigger a chain of forced liquidations, amplifying the downtrend.
Mining company MARA's related addresses recently transferred 1000 BTC to exchanges, suspected to be selling pressure.
ETFs are still seeing outflows, macro factors are suppressing, and the rebound lacks strong capital push.
But don't scare yourself:
Short term, watch if $81,400–$81,500 can hold. If it holds, a dump is unlikely to gain momentum; funding rates are also neutral, not at an extreme long position danger level.
In the afternoon, just watch two numbers:
Break below $81,400: short-term weakness, first target $80,800, extreme target below $80,000.
Hold above $83,000: dump concerns are basically disproved, rebound can continue upward.
The current position is sensitive, with liquidation traps below and resistance above. The afternoon focus is on whether $81,400 breaks.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $BTC 🔥. Bears slammed it through most of the night, but the bulls still managed to take back control. The rebound is related to the quietly expanding institutional custody line; Deutsche Bank's domestic crypto custody in Germany is about to launch, marking a traditional major bank officially stepping into custody, providing another channel for institutional funds to enter the market.
BTC is currently at 82,698, up 1.25% in 24 hours. The 80,000 level has held this round, but there is still trapped selling pressure between 83,000 and 84,000. Only breaking above that will trigger the next wave; if it can't hold, it will continue to consolidate within the range.
ETH is currently at 2,429, up only 0.88% in 24 hours. It just reclaimed 2,400; if it can't hold, it will fall back to find support at 2,350. The real hurdle it needs to overcome is 2,500.
ZEC is currently at 1,162, up 3% in 24 hours, bouncing 12% from the low of 1,049, the sharpest rebound. Whether this is an oversold rebound or a true reversal remains to be seen over the next couple of days.
I see this wave more as short covering, combined with institutional custody expectations providing a floor. It's not yet time for a full return of risk appetite. Ethereum is lagging, and funds haven't truly dispersed; ZEC's sharp rebound is also more of a short-term sentiment move. Chasing highs at this position is the biggest taboo; wait for key resistance confirmation before considering adding positions. If you really want to lay in wait, you have to wait for a pullback to stabilize. Charging in now mostly just props up those bottom-fishers from the night.Over 100 million long positions' stop losses didn't trigger, reversed to a loss of 3.26 million cutting losses, 40x leverage gambler is only 1.5% away from liquidation
At 5 a.m. today, a whale's $110 million BTC long position was finally closed. The stop loss was set at 80,500, but the market price didn't trigger it; it was manually cut at 80,949, losing 3.26 million in one shot. Plus, another 1.08 million was added on the ETH side, totaling a loss of 4.34 million this round. Even more outrageous, after cutting losses, this guy immediately went to open longs in the US stock market. Hurt by the crypto market, seeking comfort in stocks, but most likely just paying tuition in another place.
Even crazier ones are coming up. On Hyperliquid, there's a $97.87 million BTC long position with 40x leverage, entry price 81,913, liquidation price 79,828, and the current price is only 1.5% away from the liquidation line. 40x leverage, this isn't trading, this is gambling with life. If BTC dips just a bit more, this position will be the next headline.
On the chain's other side, there's a guy with an $11.38 million $ZEC long position, entry price 1,457, current price around 1,160, liquidation price 1,363, already a real loss of 1.4 million, and he has paid 87,700 in funding fees. ZEC has corrected over 24% from its high, yet he's still holding on. On October 16, that wave of ZEC longs liquidated between 17.9 to 20 million, accounting for 88.7% of total forced liquidations. The corpses of chasing longs pile up like mountains, and newcomers are still climbing up.
The ETF side hasn't been kind either. Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net outflows of $910 million for two consecutive weeks, with 228 million running off last week Weekend contract spike, the market thought it would be a "Black Monday."
But on Monday, South Korean stocks SK Hynix and Samsung opened lower then turned positive, and U.S. stock futures rose overnight.
Is the AI major correction over? Panic is easing, but it's still too early to say it's finished.
That spike can't be taken as evidence—the spot market was closed over the weekend, arbitrage and underwriting were limited, and leveraged positions are most prone to amplifying pessimism. It can reflect localized selling pressure but cannot price the entire industry chain.
Today's rebound is just "some funds supporting the bottom," Samsung and SK Hynix could turn down again at any time.
The real questions are: How much revenue can AI investment generate? Can that revenue be converted into cash? Can companies borrowing to build computing power withstand financing costs?
Focus on three points: whether the U.S. stock market can hold the rebound during regular trading / whether the rise can spread from the leaders / whether the cash flow outlook of highly leveraged AI companies improves.
Weekend spike ≠ AI crash, Monday rebound ≠ bottom.#Russia-US Diesel Contract Progresses, Diesel May Arrive in the US 15 to 20 Days After Signing
The Russia-US diesel drama has a new update today, but after doing the math, it’s honestly laughable.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the US Department of Energy has already found buyers for Russian diesel and is currently negotiating commercial terms. After signing the contract, the diesel should arrive in the US in about 15 to 20 days. Previously, Trump promised an initial 300,000 tons, then an additional 500,000 tons in November, followed by another 1 million tons. Sounds like the US is about to go on a buying spree, right?
But look at the initial 300,000 tons—that’s roughly 2.25 million barrels. How much diesel does the US burn in a day? 2.94 million barrels. In other words, this first batch doesn’t even cover a full day’s demand in the US.
What’s the impact?
First, the effect on inflation and oil prices is negligible. Oil prices dropped nearly 2 points today; the market doesn’t see this Russia-US diesel contract as a major positive. The volume is just too small—not even enough for a single day’s consumption, so it can’t fill the supply gap caused by the Middle East. Inflation expectations remain unchanged, and the Federal Reserve will likely stay put.
Second, this is a typical geopolitical show. Russia wants to use this opportunity to bypass sanctions and sell oil, while the US wants to use this to ease domestic high oil price sentiment. Both sides are just putting on a show. Don’t be fooled by the term “big order” into thinking the oil market is about to change; this kind of light supply can’t influence the macro liquidity landscape.
What’s your take? $BTC $ETH BTC Investment Weekly Report | Issue 15 (Exclusive for Long-term Holders · Major Cycle Analysis) Statistical Period: 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19 Current Price This Period: BTC approximately $81,600 I. Core Indicator Data (CBBI uniformly uses a percentage scale, consistent with previous reports) 1. CBBI (Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble Index): 52% 2. MVRV Z-Score: 0.88 3. RHODL Ratio: 812 4. 200-Week Moving Average: approximately $68,750 (current price significantly above the moving average) Review of preset sell-off resonance trigger criteria: CBBI≥90%, MVRV Z-Score≥5, RHODL Ratio≥10000; all three must resonate to initiate sell-off; same applies for reserved indicator passivation contingency plans. II. Cycle Position Analysis 1. Price Level: This week BTC fluctuated within a range, with a weekly low of $80,500 and a high of $84,400. The current price is stable around $81,600, well above the 200-week long-term cost moving average. The major cycle is in the mid-stage of a bull market consolidation and accumulation phase, not yet entering the late-stage bubble zone. The $80,000–$81,000 range serves as a concentrated support zone for long-term holders in this cycle, while $96,700 remains a strong mid-term resistance as measured by MVRV. 2. On-chain Indicator Level: - CBBI is 52% (percentage scale), still far from the 90% bubble threshold, indicating the overall market has not yetAI chip stocks just stopped falling, can the market turn bullish again?
Today, the Asia-Pacific market experienced intense volatility in early trading. The South Korean stock market rose against the trend, the Nikkei index narrowed its losses, U.S. stock futures rebounded, with Nasdaq 100 futures up about 1.3%, and Brent crude oil retreated to around $108. The market has temporarily caught its breath, but it's too early to say the risk is over.
I think the key to this round of AI adjustment is no longer just that chip stocks have risen too much, but that investors are starting to question when the several hundred billion dollars invested will actually be recouped.
CoreWeave is a warning sign.
Bond yields once approached 15%, and credit default swap costs soared, reflecting deepening market concerns about the high-debt AI infrastructure model. Even if AI demand continues to grow, it doesn't mean every computing power company can make money. Financing costs, depreciation, and capital returns may be more important than revenue growth.
This week is a critical window.
Netflix reports earnings on Tuesday, followed by Meta and Tesla on Wednesday. The market needs to see not only earnings beating expectations but also whether AI investments have translated into revenue and profit, and whether management continues to raise capital expenditures.
$NFLX $META $TSLA
My judgment is that there is a short-term opportunity for an oversold rebound, but the market will likely shift from broad gains to differentiation. Leaders with strong cash flow and low financing pressure have a relative advantage, while high-debt computing power companies may still face pressure.
If earnings reports only prove that AI is still burning cash but fail to prove returns, the rebound could extinguish again at any time.
DYOR#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Capital Flow: ETF Outflows and Whale Accumulation Form a Standoff
The current tug-of-war between bullish and bearish funds is also the core reason for the market's indecisive direction.
📉 Suppression Side | ETF Continues to Bleed
Since October, BTC spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $615 million, with ETH ETFs experiencing even larger outflows. On October 16 alone, BTC ETFs had a net outflow of $82.39 million, BlackRock's IBIT outflowed $71.78 million, institutional funds are still redeeming and retreating.
📈 Support Side | Whales Quietly Accumulating
The number of wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC has hit a historic high of 20,338, with a cumulative increase of 86,702 BTC over the past three weeks. Exchange BTC balances dropped from 2.726 million to 2.68 million BTC, whale holdings remain above 3 million BTC, with chips shifting from ETFs to cold wallets, whales taking over ETF chips.
$BTC $ETH
#InstitutionalFundsWeaken, Who Will See the First Return Flow, BTC or ETH? [CPOOL Rebrands to CLEAR, Partners with Ripple for Institutional Loans: Don't Rush to Believe the Buyback Story]
CPOOL will migrate to CLEAR on a 1:1 basis, while expanding its institutional credit business to XRPL $XRP, partnering with Ripple and Cicada Partners to settle in the stablecoin $RLUSD. The community vote approval rate reached 97.16%, but the product is still in Devnet testing and is some distance from scaling up.
Since 2021, the project has cumulatively issued about $965 million in loans, with borrowers including Jane Street, Flow Traders, and Wintermute, indicating it is not just an empty shell telling stories. However, cumulative loan amount does not equal current outstanding loans, nor does it mean the protocol has earned $965 million.
CLEAR plans to use 50% of protocol fees for market buybacks and permanent burns, which sounds attractive, but the buyback funds ultimately depend on real business revenue. On the other hand, the total token supply will reach 1.429 billion, with 1.125 billion circulating at migration, and additional tokens gradually released for treasury and ecosystem incentives.
I am more focused on whether loans on XRPL can truly take off and how much actual lending demand RLUSD can bring. If loan scale and protocol revenue continue to grow, buybacks will have solid backing; if the product remains off mainnet for long and revenue lags token release, changing the ticker won't save the valuation. Capital Flow: The "Standoff" Between ETF Outflows and Whale Accumulation
The capital flow shows a clear pattern of bulls and bears in confrontation, which is one of the core reasons why the current price cannot break out in any direction.
📉 Suppression Side: Continuous ETF Outflows
Since October, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $615 million, with Ethereum ETFs experiencing even more significant outflows during the same period. On October 16 alone, Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $82.39 million, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $71.78 million of that outflow. Institutional funds through ETF channels are still retreating.
📈 Support Side: Whales "Silently Accumulating"
In stark contrast to ETF outflows, the number of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC has reached a historic high (20,338), and these addresses have cumulatively increased their holdings by 86,702 BTC over the past three weeks. Exchange Bitcoin balances have also dropped from 2.726 million to 2.68 million BTC, with whale holdings remaining above 3 million BTC. Whales are "taking over" chips from ETFs and transferring them to cold wallets. $BTC $ZEC $ETH #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 400,000 wallets lost $280 million on Hyperliquid in one year!
Just saw some data: these 400,000 wallets come from 6 commonly used wallet apps. Through these wallets, you can directly trade perpetual contracts like $BTC and $ETH on $HYPE.
Looking at the loss composition of these wallets, fees account for more than half.
In other words: the extra fees inside the wallets are more than their trading losses.
Why?
On top of the basic fees, each wallet adds an additional layer of cost. For a $100 order, the cost ranges from 6.5 to 14.5 cents.
Here’s an example: a certain wallet user deposited a total of $12.4 million. They traded $5.8 billion, turning over 468 times.
Using a median rate of 0.1%: with 468 turnovers, the principal is eaten up by 47%. At the highest rate, it’s 68%.
So for these people, their principal doesn’t need the market to drop; just continuous trading will reduce it by half. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Conclusion first: This is a positive signal of recovery, but don't rush to call it a "rebound start"—let's first see if it can hold above $82.6K. BTC rose yesterday from $81,460 to a high of $82,291, closing at $82,233, a single-day increase of +0.94%, with a trading volume of $283 million. The key change is that it has reclaimed the 7-day moving average ($81,942). This is the first time it has recovered the short-term moving average after struggling below the 7-day line for several consecutive days. The weekend consolidation was not broken downward; instead, it broke upward. Looking at the structure: spot price $82,233, perpetual contracts aligned, no decoupling. Open interest is about $2.476 billion; funding rate +0.0066%, mildly positive. Compared to the previous days' maximum funding rates, today's leverage sentiment is healthier—the deleveraging pressure has been absorbed, and leverage is moderately rebuilding. Looking at the position: currently $82,218, above the 7-day line ($81,942), but below the 14-day line ($82,597). The 14-day high is $86,694, and the 14-day low is $79,775. In other words, the 14-day line at $82.6K is the next hurdle; only by holding above it can further confirmation be made. Market cap is $1.65 trillion, ranked number 1. On-chain MVRV Z-Score remains in a neutral to low range, not overvalued at the top, which supports today's recovery. What about the short-term trend? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (30%) scenario is a drop back below the 7-day line, targeting $80K #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
For SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report, don't just focus on whether revenue explodes; just look at three key lines: whether Starlink continues to generate cash flow, whether the progress of Starship justifies its high valuation, and whether AI investments will continue to eat into profits. The market prices SpaceX as a package of "aerospace + low-earth orbit broadband + AI," so if any one of these falters in the report, high volatility will first bring expectations back down.
My judgment is contrary to consensus: the truly stable factor isn't the Mars story, but the subscription cash flow from Starlink. Users, ARPU, and the number of satellites in orbit are more important than Musk's projections of long-term revenue. If Starlink holds up, SpaceX qualifies to keep burning money on Starship and computing power.
In the crypto market, SpaceX is not a direct positive for BTC, but it extends global risk appetite. The stronger the tech narrative in US stocks, the steadier the Nasdaq sentiment, making BTC and ETH, as high-beta assets, more likely to catch liquidity; conversely, if earnings disappoint → tech stocks pull back → on-chain assets fall first, leverage blows up first. Don't mistake the "space concept" as a crypto bull signal; it's about whether capital dares to sustain duration.
In trading, don't chase sentiment; focus on three things: SPCX's pre- and post-market reaction after earnings, Nasdaq futures, and whether BTC can hold key levels. If tech risk appetite doesn't collapse, buying the dip is more comfortable than chasing highs; if earnings gap up then crash, reduce leverage first and wait for on-chain stabilization before acting. Long term, I remain bullish on risk assets, but discipline is more valuable than faith—don't forget stop-loss and position management.#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
[ID Viewpoint] During the phase of institutional capital contraction, BTC is highly likely to be the first to see capital inflow.
After the market cools down, institutions tend to withdraw from high-risk positions first and will prioritize the most certain targets when bottom-fishing.
Currently, with fluctuating macro interest rate expectations, institutions are generally defensive. ETH spot ETFs have seen prolonged capital outflows, with pressure significantly greater than BTC. ETH, with its staking, Layer2, and ecosystem narratives, is more growth-oriented. Institutions tend to cut these flexible assets first during tight capital phases; BTC, on the other hand, is positioned more like the "large-cap core asset" in the crypto market. Its spot ETF products are mature, making it the preferred choice for traditional institutions entering the crypto space. When risk appetite recovers, capital usually flows to BTC first.
However, it is important to distinguish that the inflow will come in two waves. The first wave is risk-averse capital testing the waters with small positions, flowing only into BTC, stabilizing the market. After macro inflation data is released and rate hike expectations become clear, and market risk appetite fully recovers, capital will then overflow into ETH, leading to a stronger rebound for ETH.
Observation point: closely watch daily capital flows of spot ETFs. A shift of BTC ETF from continuous outflows to two consecutive days of net inflows signals institutional tentative return; for ETH to reverse, it must wait for BTC to stabilize before it can stop its ongoing bleeding.Three Faces of Liquidation: Who's Naked Swimming in a Fake Rebound, Who's Holding Firm in a Real Deadlock
In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw $386 million in liquidations, with 86,201 people forced out. Shorts liquidated $246 million, longs $140 million. At first glance, it looks like "shorts were the main victims," as if the bears got severely punished. But beneath this surface lie three very different faces.
$ETH: Shorts were forced out, but those who forced them out have no intention of staying to buy.
Total $ETH liquidations reached $98.79 million, with shorts at $56.37 million and longs at $42.41 million, so shorts indeed took the heaviest hit. The last 4 hours were even more extreme: shorts liquidated $39.1 million, longs only $400,000, with the liquidation scale almost entirely one-sided against shorts. The market gave a clear reason—$ETH was forcibly pulled back from $2,336 to above $2,400; in the last hour, 99.8% of $ETH liquidations were shorts, with short sellers directly carried away by the rebound.
But don’t rush to call it a "bull comeback." Funding rates on OKX are 0.0087%, Binance 0.0041%; positive rates mean long holders are still paying fees. More painfully, structurally: Binance accounts hold 76.4% longs, OKX 71.7%, but active trades show longs only 55.9%–58.7%. In plain terms: many are calling longs, but few are chasing longs. Most longs are previously trapped positions, not new money entering. The 4-hour short squeeze is essentially a position rebalancing, not a trend confirmation. The real test for $ETH lies ahead: near $2,398 there is a largest single liquidation order of $10.1 million; if price falls back and open interest rises instead of falling, the shorts forced out today will become new shorts pressing down tomorrow.
$BTC: Longs and shorts are like two people arm-wrestling to a stalemate; neither wins nor lets go.
$BTC liquidation totals range from $55.77 million to $98.37 million, with discrepancies in data sources but a surprisingly consistent direction: long and short liquidation volumes are almost identical, with negligible difference. In 24 hours, BTC has been tugged between $80,684 and $82,500, with the $80,000 level repeatedly tested and defended.
Behind the deadlock lies an honest divergence: $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $228 million last week, but whale net deposits to exchanges have stopped since late August, with capital flow persistently negative and spot selling pressure marginally easing. ETFs are hiding, whales are absorbing, and price is caught in the middle, so it can only move sideways. Above $82,500–83,000 is a short liquidity accumulation zone; if broken, fuel to squeeze shorts is ready. Below $79,800–80,000 lies a $97.87 million 40x $BTC long order, only about 1.5% from liquidation. BTC’s current calm is not reconciliation but both sides pressing knives under the table.
$ZEC: The leveraged funeral is over, but the bodies haven’t cooled yet.
$ZEC liquidation data is the most asymmetric among the three: longs $9.9 million, shorts $4.24 million, with long liquidations more than twice shorts. This is the opposite of $ETH. $ETH shorts were squeezed out; $ZEC longs were buried. The logic is simple: after a roughly 460% surge, high-leverage longs piled up too thickly; CPI exceeding expectations was just the needle, the real killer was the chain reaction cascade—within 24 hours, $ZEC long liquidations once accounted for 88.7%.
Adding to the negative sentiment, on-chain investigations show about 18,900 $ZEC (around $28.3 million) stolen in multiple hacks were transferred into Zcash’s Ironwood shielded pool. This doesn’t mean Zcash’s cryptography is flawed, but it temporarily turns the “privacy” card into a liability—the market sees “dirty money flowing in.” Meanwhile, the NU7 upgrade decision countdown starts October 20; V4 transactions will be deprecated, about 22,309 ZEC in the Sprout pool face permanent freezing. Some bet on supply contraction, others fear governance trust collapse; longs and shorts are fighting in thin liquidity. $ZEC’s volatility is not a narrative upgrade but a post-leverage clearing gamble on an unresolved rule change.
The macro bottom card hasn’t been revealed; all rebounds come with shackles.
US September CPI year-over-year at 3.7%, PPI also exceeding expectations, Brent oil price above $109, ETFs bleeding $434 million in a single week, Ethereum products leading outflows at $320 million, and the Fed meeting on October 28 next week. Against this backdrop, $ETH short squeeze is a "rebound squeeze," not a "trend reversal"; $BTC deadlock is a "weak recovery consolidation," not a "bottoming completion"; $ZEC crash is a "high-beta leverage clearing," not the "final drop."
On the night 86,201 people were liquidated, the real question isn’t "who liquidated shorts or longs," but which side is actually placing active buy orders in this rebound. If $ETH can’t hold $2,398, $BTC can’t break $82,800–83,000, and $ZEC’s NU7 game remains unresolved, then today’s liquidation data is just a trailer for the next round of liquidations, not the main feature.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC vs Gold $XAUT
2018 top → bottom: ‑83.75%
2021 top → bottom: ‑76.16%
2025 top → bottom: ‑70.07%
Three bear markets, and the drawdown is shrinking by roughly 6–7% each cycle.
If you look where $BTC vs Gold bottomed in 2026, then check BTCUSD at that same point in 2023….
Yeah, do you get it now why I’ve been advocating DCA around 60K all year?
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins @saylor admitted one thing.
Relying solely on Bitcoin holdings can't support his 12% annual interest stocks.
He said: creditors want cash, not coins.
STRC, with a 12% annual interest and a face value of 100, fell below face value to 75 this summer.
The company spent about $1.5 billion on buybacks and set aside three years' worth of cash specifically to pay interest.
This made him realize something. His exact words:
Creditors would rather see three years of dollars than thirty years of Bitcoin.
Then he gave an analogy.
"98% Bitcoin + 2% cash will collapse. 70% Bitcoin + 30% cash is like stainless steel."
So his answer is not to bet all on Bitcoin, but 30% cash and 70% Bitcoin.
But the cost is obvious.
In recent weeks, Strategy has spent more on buybacks than on buying new coins.
Gold advocate Peter Schiff directly said: this company has lost the ability to buy coins.
Saylor of course disagrees.
His reason: creditors look at a three-year record; digital credit is only in its second year.
Anything new needs three years to be trusted.
So what really happened is:
Saylor took a few months to shift from relying entirely on coins to raising 30% cash.
He hasn't given up on Bitcoin.
He just admitted: relying on faith, you can't borrow money. 434 million USD withdrawn from digital asset products in one week; this figure is more worth watching than the price itself. Do you think institutions are fleeing, or is it just position rotation? When I flipped through CoinShares' weekly report this morning, my first reaction wasn't to see how far BTC had dropped, but to put this outflow into the trend phase and measure it. On October 16, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day outflow of 82.4 million, ETH ETF 69.7 million, and ETH has been net outflowing for three consecutive days. BTC once fell below 80K, now hovering around 81K. On the surface, it looks like a retreat, but what concerns me more is: this looks more like a divergence period after a rise, rather than panic at the end of distribution. What's the difference? Distribution is smart money selling while pulling, with retail investors eagerly buying; now it's the opposite, whale addresses are still absorbing, and the main outflows come from product-side allocations. The market is really trading not "whether to have crypto or not," but "whether interest rates can still fall." Hot CPI and PPI have pushed back rate cut expectations, compressing risk budgets, and the first to be cut are always discretionary consumption positions, with crypto right at the front. So this wave of outflows looks more like macro-driven deleveraging, not narrative collapse. The transmission path is also clear: BTC repeatedly tests the psychological level of 80K, ETH looks heavier due to continuous bleeding, altcoin beta shrinks accordingly, and trading rhythm shifts from chasing gains to waiting for confirmation. The more bullish path is: 80K holds, ETF outflows converge, whales take over turning into position rotation, and once macro data eases, the rebound will be quick because selling pressure has already"After the Flash Crash: Don't Mistake Recovery for a Reversal (｡•́︿•̀｡)"
With the US stock market closed late at night and liquidity thin, the futures market suddenly experienced a collective flash crash: over 50 million liquidated in 10 minutes, with longs accounting for 40 million, a brutal scene (╥﹏╥). Today liquidity has warmed up, and an oversold recovery is underway, but it currently looks more like a rebound rather than a reversal; some coins haven't even caught up with the recovery.
On-chain details of $BTC are quite counterintuitive: the proportion of holders selling within one year dropped from 40.4% in June to 4.4%, indicating short-term selling pressure is nearly cleared (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧. Even with pressure from US Treasury yields, the price remains steady around the 80,000 mark, making the current position a good value.
$ETH's issue isn't a weak ecosystem or excessive negative news, but a massive withdrawal of funds. Last week, the US ETH spot ETF saw net redemptions of 320 million, with BlackRock accounting for 299 million, directly dragging down the price (￣▽￣)". Social sentiment is bullish at 2.05:1, but on-chain funds are not buying in; to turn bullish, it must reclaim 2550 with volume, otherwise the rebound is likely to become a selling point for trapped positions near previous highs.
$SOL has real demand support: last month, on-chain stablecoin transfers reached 557 million transactions, averaging 18.6 million daily, a 33% month-on-month increase, leading in payment settlements; Securitize started issuing 12 tokenized US stocks on Solana last week, with RWA receiving real orders (ง •_•)ง. If the market rebounds, SOL's elasticity is worth looking forward to.
Focus on recovery first, don't rush to call a reversal. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ After a sharp drop in the semiconductor sector, has there been a technical oversold rebound in the night session?
In this rebound, computing power, optical communication, and storage stocks are all rising, but this is more of an emotional recovery from the previous continuous decline and does not mean the overall trend has completely reversed.
This is actually a very typical oversold rebound in the data center industry chain. Rather than just looking at how much NVIDIA $NVDA has risen, attention can be paid to the optical communication leaders $AAOI and $PLUME, as well as the storage giants shky and Micron mu following the rise.
The bottleneck of AI hardware has never been just the computing power chips themselves, but the transmission bandwidth and storage throughput capacity. Now, these supporting industry chains in the night session are moving faster than the main chips, indicating that capital is searching again for more cost-effective speculative targets in the expansion of computing power clusters.
The short-term expected oversold rebound sentiment may continue, but it will soon face the hard test of earnings season. Market doubts about the sustainability of large companies' AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) have not been completely dispelled.
If the upcoming earnings guidance fails to deliver data exceeding expectations, the current rebound could easily become a window for unloading funds trapped at high levels.
Market funds have not left the AI main theme but have become more selective and cautious, shifting from blindly speculating on concepts to a game focused on concrete order fulfillment and performance verification.$SOXL vs $SPCX : Smart Money Is Betting Against the Rally
Both assets are rising, but their positioning reveals a different story.
$SOXL shows improving momentum. Buyers are returning, although short exposure remains significant.
$SPCX is more interesting. Shorts overwhelmingly dominate, yet the price continues to rise. This creates potential for a short squeeze.
My view: SOXL has stronger buying momentum, while SPCX faces greater squeeze potential. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 SpaceX will release its Q3 earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 20. Although Musk just ignited market sentiment with a flying Roadster, my expectations for this earnings report are actually not that optimistic.
I plan to bet No on the prediction market (betting it will miss expectations). The reason is straightforward: flying cars are Tesla's narrative, not SpaceX's performance.
The capital market has given SpaceX a very high valuation premium, with a price-to-sales ratio once exceeding 100 times. But looking at its previous earnings reports, Starlink is the only consistently profitable segment, the Starship business is still burning R&D money, with quarterly EBITDA losses exceeding 100 million. To support new stories like AI computing power, the company's quarterly capital expenditure is expected to reach as high as $19.3 billion, which means quarterly free cash flow could suffer a consumption level exceeding tens of billions of dollars.
Q3 revenue is expected to be between $12.9 billion and $13.8 billion. At this stage driven by huge investments, it is very difficult for the earnings report to meet expectations of both high revenue growth and profitability improvement.
The concept linkage brought by flying cars can push the stock price before the market opens,
but this sentiment is hard to sustain in the face of hard cash flow data.
Once the earnings report shows slightly conservative numbers on Starship progress or AI computing monetization,
or operating losses exceed expectations, the pressure for stock price correction will immediately appear.
So I won’t chase this wave of sentiment heat in this prediction contest. What the earnings report needs is solid financial fulfillment; conceptual fireworks cannot support a hundredfold price-to-sales ratio. $BTC $ETH Figure 1, the 90,000 institutions borrowing coins to buy tokens have been inactive recently, probably due to the price drop. Figure 2, US institutions are still selling. Figure 3, order book data shows a high probability of continued consolidation.Alphabet's Q3 report will test whether a $195B-$205B 2026 capex plan is becoming a durable Cloud advantage or simply a heavier funding burden. The useful evidence will be the relationship between Cloud growth, margins, and cash flow—not the scale of spending alone. Until then, the payoff timeline remains uncertain.
#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH?
Currently, spot ETFs for $BTC and $ETH are both seeing outflows, with institutions overall remaining cautious, but the fundamentals of the two differ significantly.
BTC is the preferred allocation target for institutions, with a larger ETF pool and more stable capital flows. Once macro expectations ease, capital inflows will likely choose BTC first.
ETH ETFs are smaller in size, with greater redemption flexibility, compounded by network narratives and regulatory uncertainties, so capital inflows will lag.
Personal view: This round of capital warming will most likely start with BTC, while ETH will follow as a delayed catch-up, not a simultaneous rebound.
Priority should be on watching BTC ETF funds shift from negative to positive signals. Before confirming inflows, do not heavily buy the dip early; strictly use stop-losses and only take small trial positions for speculation.
What do you think, will this round of capital inflows favor BTC or ETH first? Quack AI (Q) surged directly by 40-50% today, with the price hitting around 0.16, market cap reaching 700-800 million, and trading volume picking up as well.
The direction is focused on on-chain payments and authorization for AI agents. Through Q402, agents can perform stablecoin settlements across multiple chains without holding the native token, effectively eliminating the friction of agents paying gas fees themselves. This pain point truly exists.
But honestly, I haven't seen any clear product launches or partnership announcements behind this rally. It feels more like a result of AI agent narrative rotation combined with short liquidations and momentum funds pushing together...
The price has already overextended the narrative quite a bit. The key going forward is whether it can transition from speculative rotation to real agent usage and settlement volume; otherwise, it will just be another wave of sentiment retreating.
This is my personal judgment and does not constitute investment advice. #芯片股八连跌后反弹，AI交易能否修复？ Why is it difficult for today's rebound to gain strength? The three major suppressions still exist
Although the decline has stopped, it is absolutely not the time to bottom-fish and celebrate. The three major pressures on tech stocks have not been lifted at all:
1. High inflation + high oil prices continue to suppress valuations
The current core global risk remains the geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz pushing oil prices to new highs, with US inflation rebounding persistently, CPI and PPI both exceeding expectations. Without inflation falling, US Treasury yields will continue to run at high levels.
Tech stocks are long-duration assets; as long as interest rates remain high, valuations will continue to be suppressed, and AI and semiconductors cannot experience a sustained major rally.
2. The Fed's December rate hike expectations have not completely faded
The market currently unanimously expects no rate hike in October but retains the possibility of a hike in December.
As long as the market does not fully expect rate cuts, tech stocks will find it difficult to escape the "high interest rate bear market" pattern, and every rebound will be a weak recovery.
3. Major earnings report window approaching, funds cautiously watching
This week will see the Q3 earnings reports of many tech giants such as Tesla, Meta, Netflix, and IBM.
Funds will not enter the market on a large scale before the earnings reports are released, mainly adopting a wait-and-see and low-volume oscillation approach, making a strong counterattack unlikely. This rebound of $SOL is indeed a bit "unfair," directly pulling up to 105.54, trapping my short position at 103.72, currently floating a loss of over 5 points. Seeing the red numbers in my account inevitably causes some emotional fluctuation, but reason tells me: don't panic, this is just a dead cat bounce!
From a technical perspective, although the price briefly broke through the short-term moving average, the 106-108 range above is a previously densely traded trapped position area, a huge resistance. The current rally looks more like the main force baiting longs, trying to create a false "reversal" illusion to harvest chasing retail investors. My forced liquidation price is far at 49,864 (displayed in full position mode), with a thick capital safety buffer, fully able to withstand this level of volatility.
As long as the trading volume cannot continue to expand, this volume-less rebound is just giving shorts a better entry point. I don't plan to stop loss now; instead, I'm waiting for it to exhaust. Once a clear upper shadow or divergence signal appears near 106, not only can this loss be recovered, but I can also catch a fatter downtrend. In this market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits. Hold the chips and let the bullets fly a little longer!
$BTC $ETH #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #Institutional funds weaken, who will see the first inflow, BTC or ETH?
Looking at the data in today's screenshot, the funding situation is really a bit tight.
From October 12 to 16 this week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of 228.4 million, while Ethereum ran even harder, with an outflow of 320.1 million. The outflow scale of Ethereum is even larger than Bitcoin's, indicating that institutions now have even less patience for high Beta assets. Corporate treasuries are also not performing well, with a clear slowdown in accumulation.
Galaxy Research provided a set of very sobering data: the combined buying from ETFs and corporate treasuries simply cannot absorb the supply dumped by long-term holders. The cumulative supply-demand deficit within the year is about negative 127,300 BTC. And that's not all; the funding pressure has already spread to altcoins. The 141 altcoins tracked by 10x Research fell an average of 14% last week, while BTC only dropped 3% in the same period. Trading volume is shrinking, and stablecoin supply is also contracting—this is a typical sign of on-exchange capital outflow.
But if you look at the market below the screenshot, BTC rose 1.77%, and ETH rose 1.92%. Funds are withdrawing, yet the market is rebounding—how to explain this?
Simply put, this is a low-volume technical rebound after a prior heavy drop, combined with some whales buying the dip around 80,000. It does not mean institutional funds have turned around. Without real incremental funds entering, this kind of rebound can easily become a bull trap.
Back to the question in the screenshot: who will see the first inflow, BTC or ETH?
$BTC #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
A string of numbers, unknown for 25 years
Around 2000, the US government gave cryptographers several sets of cryptographic rules.
Among them were several numbers said to be the key to security.
No one knew who decided these numbers or how they were calculated.
Suspected for 25 years
Because many years ago, the government was exposed for deliberately weakening cryptographic standards.
So people suspected: these numbers were deliberately chosen to be weaker, making future cracking easier.
Last week, a Claude clarified this matter
That string of numbers came from an old program's random generation.
The starting point was a timestamp—August 16, 1997, at 1:52 AM.
Running the program with that timestamp outputs many numbers.
The 1842nd number is exactly that security-critical number.
Now anyone can try it themselves.
But that's not the point. The point is: this curve is being installed in your phone.
Ethereum has a proposal (EIP-7951) to use this curve for signature verification.
In plain language: in the future, you can authorize a transaction by just tapping Face ID / Touch ID on your phone, and the wallet won't need to manage private keys itself.
Apple's secure chip, Android's keystore, and FIDO2 devices are all explicitly included in this proposal.
This is why this discovery matters:
Whether this curve has a backdoor directly determines if your phone can be used as a wallet. Liquidated with a shortfall of $184, after cutting losses of $4.34 million, he went to the US stock market and opened a long position worth over $45.93 million.
This guy is truly a pure gambler.
Early this morning, his $110 million BTC long position was only $184 away from the liquidation line. Just $184 short, his account was almost wiped out. Fortunately, the market rallied early in the morning, allowing him to survive.
After escaping death, he made a decision that goes against all logic—cutting losses.
Four hours ago, he closed 1,821 BTC positions, losing $3.26 million. Adding the previous $1.08 million loss from ETH liquidation, he lost a total of $4.34 million in the crypto space this week.
We thought he was heartbroken by the crypto market and would close his account and quit. But looking at his new positions, wow, he turned around and opened a $45.93 million long position in US stocks!
The targets include Tesla, Micron, and semiconductor ETFs. All are high-volatility, high-risk assets, all long positions.
A gambler never leaves the table; he just changed the venue.
In crypto, high-leverage longs get crushed; now he goes to US stocks, using real money to go long on tech stocks. This guy really can’t sit still and is really stubborn.
Retail investors get liquidated and learn their lesson, closing the app and eating a bowl of instant noodles. Whales get liquidated and just think, "This track has bad luck; switching places and going all-in can recover losses."
What do you think? Can his $45.93 million US stock long position withstand tonight’s Nasdaq? Discuss in the comments.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH This week BTC is consolidating near 80,000 USD, direction unclear but with plenty of data.
BTC/USDT around 82,660, oscillating between 79,800-84,300 in the past two weeks.
Farside data shows that in October, the US spot BTC ETF had a cumulative net outflow of about 450 million USD, with a single-day outflow of -485 million on October 7, the largest since June.
The same macro factors are also pressuring US stocks.
September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both exceeding market expectations; on September 16, the FOMC raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is above 5%, DXY is strengthening, VIX around 20, and risk assets are undergoing overall repricing.
NVDA dropped about 10% from its October 5 high over 7 trading days to 214.13 on October 16.
Common question: with no easing in interest rates and a strong dollar, are risk assets buying time to find space or continuing to seek support lower?
BTC first looks to see if 79,800 can hold, NVDA first looks to see if 210-215 can support.
The FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is the next repricing window.
$BTC $NVDA $SPY #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ Brothers, this wave of $KORU looks fierce, but it's actually full of tricks. I'm holding my short position firmly!
Look closely at its trend, from issuance until now, every drop fails to reach the previous high, showing a long-term downward drift. Even if it rallies 13% today, so what? The trend hasn't changed at all. I'm holding this short position very confidently.
Looking at the market, I entered the short at 12.02, now it's close to the cost line. The resistance at 12.43 is the previous rebound high and the starting point of this rally, so the pressure is clear. Above that, around 13 is a dense trading zone with many trapped positions. As long as it can't break through 12.43, the rebound is just a bull trap, and the bears can take over anytime.
The so-called "Asia payment cooperation" rumor has been around for two months, but it was just a one-day event when it landed. The positive news has already been cashed out by whales. Every rebound is to lure retail investors to take the risk so the main players can save themselves by selling.
Resistance above is from 12.43 to 13.00; if it can't break through, it's a bear's world. I'll keep holding my short, with a stop loss above 13.00. On the downside, watch 11.34 first; if it breaks, then 10.84. The rest is up to time.
$BTC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $ETH #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓