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The truly crazy part about this $BTC wave is not breaking through $70K.
It's that the market has started to reprice liquidity.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations. Following that, BTC accelerated from around $65K and today surged above $72K, gaining over 10% in just two days.
More importantly, shorts began to collectively panic, with a large number of short positions forcibly liquidated, and forced buying further pushed the market higher.
But now there is a detail worth watching:
The 30-year Treasury yield, after a brief pullback, has returned to a high level, indicating that this "liquidity boost" is not unconditionally sustainable.
So the real dividing line between bulls and bears going forward is not $72K.
It is:
Can $70K hold?
Holding above $70K gives the breakout real value.
If it falls back below $70K, beware of a rapid pullback after the short squeeze ends.
BTC is very strong right now.
But the stronger it gets, the more you must remember:
A true trend is not afraid of pullbacks; the real traps tend to appear when everyone starts turning bullish.The overall market rose 7.45%, but $OKB only increased by 3.3%. Exchange tokens underperforming in a bull market—is that acceptable?
1. This wave of OKB's rise is purely beta-driven, with no coin-specific catalysts. The market was pushed up by the Treasury's QE Lite + White House summit, and OKB just followed along. But the correlation with BTC is only 0.19, indicating its linkage with BTC was never strong, so it’s not surprising it can’t rally much.
2. The good news is the supply side is clean. All 21M are in circulation, 100% unlocked, with no inflation pressure. X Layer is promoting RWA incentives, GRVT staking also supports OKB, and the ecosystem is expanding. However, the 24h turnover rate is only 2%, liquidity is thin, and large orders can easily cause dips.
3. $100 is psychological support; if broken, look to $88. The resistance at the recent high of $105 requires volume to break through to be a valid signal.
So overall, OKB is currently in a "bull market follows but underperforms" state. It lacks an independent narrative and relies entirely on the market. Just hold $100 as support and don’t expect it to lead. Consider adding positions only when OKX has major positive news.$BTC
BTC's sharp rise over the past two days has already cleared out a large number of shorts in the market.
What truly deserves caution now is not mindlessly chasing the rally.
Looking at the current leverage distribution, if BTC continues to surge to around $80,000, the shorts that can be liquidated above amount to about $1 billion; but if the market suddenly reverses and falls back to around $64,000, the potential long liquidations below could exceed $4.6 billion.
What does this mean?
The upside looks lively, but the chips available to continue "short squeezes" are not as many as before; on the contrary, the large amount of long leverage piled up below could become the target for capital to harvest in the opposite direction.
So, if BTC breaks above $72,000 or even continues higher, personally I would not choose to chase the rally crazily.
What we fear most now is not that it can't rise, but that after the market sentiment fully FOMOs, the whales suddenly launch a **"counterattack"**.
First, blow out the shorts, then attract retail to chase higher, and finally suddenly dump to liquidate longs—
this is the most classic and also the most painful scenario for high-leverage players.
Therefore, my approach going forward is simple:
Don't chase when it rises, wait and see when it falls; watch the structure on breakouts, look for opportunities on pullbacks.
The easiest time to lose money in a bull market is often not during declines, but when everyone thinks "it can only go up."
Of course, the above is just my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice.#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Gold’s return above $4,500/oz on Aug. 20 looks stronger when viewed through positioning rather than price alone. SPDR Gold Shares added 9.41 tonnes to reach 1,034.65 tonnes, while 53 China-listed gold funds grew by RMB26.8B from the start of the month to RMB424.2B by Aug. 19.
My read: broader fund participation can reinforce the move, but it also raises the cost of disappointment. A weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields and deficit concerns remain supportive; rising long yields or stronger risk appetite would test whether recent demand is durable. Diverging UBS and Wells Fargo forecasts underline how sensitive the outlook remains.
Not advice, just analysis.
#GoldReclaims4500BTC attempts to break through $69,000, but the market has already set its direction before that. Will it test $69,000 first before the short rally ends, or will a pullback to $66,000 come first? The original text points out the short-term overheating of BTC, which rose to around $68,000, and suggests a strategy to wait for a pullback rather than chasing buys before a confirmed break above $69,000. The key levels are the sell volume zone between $68,500 and $69,000, the support re-entry zone between $66,500 and $67,500, and the short-term trend invalidation line at $65,500. This perspective is not just about simple quotes but is based on the judgment that the current price already reflects much of the short rally expectations. The importance of this move lies more in the cross-market transmission structure than the price itself. The rally up to $68,000 seems to have been accompanied more by short covering in the futures market and increased leveraged long positions than by spot demand. This indicates that the strength of the price increase is sustained more by futures market activity. From Hacker Coin Theft to Successful Merge: A Historical Review of Ethereum, Revealing the Victory of Long-Termism
⚠️Content is only a historical review of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice
Many only know ETH as the second largest by market cap, but few realize it has faced multiple near-collapse moments, growing from a whitepaper written by a teenager into the foundational base of the entire Web3. Understanding its ups and downs is more important than simply betting on price movements.
1. Germination: An Undervalued Experimental Project
In 2013, 19-year-old Vitalik wrote the Ethereum whitepaper, proposing the concept of a world computer: Bitcoin could only transfer value, while Ethereum could run smart contracts, enabling blockchain to support various applications.
In 2014, a crowdfunding campaign raised funds by exchanging Bitcoin for ETH. Most of the Bitcoin community was skeptical, thinking the new project was too abstract and overly ambitious.
In July 2015, the mainnet launched with very few early developers. It was just a niche technical experiment without large-scale applications, prices were low, and few recognized its future potential.
2. Life-or-Death Crisis: Hacker Theft in the First Year Nearly Ended It
In 2016, the major security incident of The DAO occurred, where hackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to steal 3.6 million ETH, worth tens of millions of dollars at the time.
The market panicked, and the coin price was halved. The community erupted in a huge debate: since blockchain pursues immutability, should there be a hard fork to roll back transactions and recover losses?
After debate, the vast majority chose a hard fork to retrieve the stolen assets, which also led to the split creating Ethereum Classic (ETC).
This was Ethereum's darkest hour, with widespread pessimism and many declaring the project dead, but the community survived the governance crisis and lived on.
3. First Boom: ICO Bubble, Instant Fame (2017)
The ERC-20 token standard was born, countless new projects issued tokens on Ethereum, and the ICO wave swept the entire crypto market.
ETH surged from single digits, firmly establishing itself as the second largest cryptocurrency.
But the bubble burst quickly. The 2018 bear market arrived, countless ICO projects went to zero, ETH plummeted 90% from its peak, network congestion and high Gas fees were magnified, and criticism flooded back.
4. Bear Market Consolidation: Bubble Fades, Real Ecosystem Growth Begins (2018-2020)
The bull market bubble faded, speculative funds left, and developers stayed to build.
DeFi began to sprout, with lending and decentralized exchanges launching; NFT standards took shape.
Outsiders still complained about Ethereum’s slowness and high fees, but the underlying infrastructure quietly iterated, preparing for the next big rally.
5. Two Major Narratives Ignite, Leading to Historic Highlights (2020-2021)
1. DeFi Summer: lending, swaps, and liquidity mining exploded, with massive capital flowing on-chain;
2. NFT wave: CryptoKitties and profile picture NFTs went viral, bringing Ethereum into the public eye.
EIP-1559 launched, implementing fee burning, giving ETH deflationary properties, and the price hit a historic high of $4,878.
6. Epic Upgrade: The Merge, Completing the Transition from Mining to Staking (2022)
The years-long The Merge was completed, bidding farewell to GPU mining and switching to PoS staking consensus, reducing energy consumption by 99%, sharply shrinking ETH issuance, and officially forming the deflation narrative.
The upgrade process was not smooth, with multiple delays and strong opposition from miners, but it landed under great pressure. Subsequent Cancun upgrades pushed Layer 2 scaling, solving the long-standing high fee problem.
7. Review: Ethereum’s Comeback and Lessons for Ordinary People
1. There is no eternal god; even great projects face multiple near-death experiences. ETH endured hacker attacks, bear market crashes, and upgrade delays, not rising smoothly but surviving crisis after crisis.
2. True value comes from the ecosystem, not mere hype stories. Its strength lies in DeFi, NFT, stablecoins, Layer 2, and thousands of developers continuously building together, not a single concept.
3. Bull markets are results, not starting points. The surges in 2017 and 2021 came from years of technical consolidation during bear markets. Many only see the later glory and ignore the long early period of obscurity.
4. Technical roadmaps won’t be smooth; upgrades will be delayed and controversial. Focus on long-term implementation results, don’t be scared off by short-term negatives or blindly brainwashed by hype.
ETH’s current status did not come out of nowhere. It shows us: sector narratives are important, but the underlying logic of long-term comeback is surviving crises, continuous iteration, and ecosystem growth.
$ETH #Ethereum #Web3 Recently, staying up late to trade US stocks has seriously harmed my health, directly causing high blood pressure. I took a day off today, but with such big market changes, once the market opens, I still have to get back to work. After a day, more information has been disclosed, and the situation has become clearer. Setting aside the sudden interference factor of Bitcoin's sudden rise, the logic of oil prices rising while US stocks fall is very consistent, and it seems oil prices have not yet peaked. So even if Trump intends to keep the US stock market stable during the midterm elections, it doesn't mean the market will keep rising without turning back. At most, the overall trend can be kept upward until the midterm elections in November. If a black swan event occurs, there will be market rescue, but bulldozer-style continuous rises are neither realistic nor in his personal interest. Assuming Trump, Bessent, and Walsh are now cooperating closely without any grudges or information gaps. Assuming they plan to raise interest rates in September, then Bessent's doubling of repurchases yesterday changes from a signal of easing to a prerequisite for rate hikes. Bessent must first suppress long-term interest rates through doubled repurchases to create external conditions for Walsh to raise rates and suppress short-term interest rates. The rate hike is to recharge the Federal Reserve's credibility and is a necessary measure to maintain interest rate differentials when allies generally raise rates. Moreover, the execution details of the doubled repurchases also contain clues about the rate hikes: effective on September 9, then increased again on November 4; one just before the September FOMC, the other the day after the November midterm election vote. This also explains why Bessent was eager to have the Federal Reserve raise the FIMA limit in early August: once the Fed raises rates, the US-Japan interest rate spread widens, and the USD/JPY returns to 16 Is a Bitcoin ETF really expensive? Let's calculate the holding cost over ten years. Every week, the market sees news about Bitcoin ETF fund flows: hundreds of millions of dollars flowing in or out, institutional increases, university endowments disclosing holdings... These numbers easily become market focal points. But for ordinary investors, there's a more practical question worth focusing on: What is the actual cost of buying a Bitcoin ETF? Many people first look only at the fund fee rates, such as 0.20%, 0.25%, or 1.50%. However, if the holding period extends to 5 or 10 years, the factors truly affecting the final returns are not just management fees, but also compound interest effects, tracking errors, bid-ask spreads, tax treatment, and opportunity costs compared to self-custody. In other words, the ETF's "fee rate" is just the first line on the cost sheet, not the final answer. Fee rates may be just a few basis points, but after ten years, the difference could amount to tens of thousands of dollars. Currently, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. market have formed a relatively clear tier of fee rates. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust's public fee rate is about 0.15%, classified as a low-fee product; Franklin Templeton EZBC is about 0.19%, Bitwise BITB and VanEck HODL about 0.20%, ARK 21Shares ARKB about 0.21%. BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC have fee rates of 0.25%. What is truly special is That recent lower shadow candle made my hand tremble a bit✨ Have you ever wondered why, despite such scary liquidation data, the price can still bounce back like this? Let me start with a cold hard fact: in the past twelve hours, $970 million worth of short positions on Ethereum were liquidated, and Bitcoin's was even more extreme, with $1.35 billion evaporated instantly. But what really sent chills down my spine was another number—the corresponding buy orders: ETH had only a bit over 8,000, and BTC didn't even reach 5,000. What does this mean? It means the market's rebound isn't driven by new buying pressure, but rather shorts stepping on their own feet. This kind of rebound is essentially a chain reaction of short covering, a forced liquidation at the leverage level, not a signal of massive new capital entering. My own feeling is that this market now resembles a tightly stretched rubber band—the harder you pull in one direction, the more irrationally it snaps back. I witnessed someone open a short just a minute ago, and the next second they were completely wiped out, not even having time to set a stop loss. Now everyone is saying that the US stance on crypto has softened, claiming the regulatory battles are over and the industry is entering a golden growth period. But I prefer to focus on another question: why can't BTC break above around 70,000? If all the bad news has truly been cleared, if institutions are really accumulating aggressively, this resistance shouldn't be so stubborn. My understanding is that the core of current market trading is not fundamentals, but expectation gaps. Everyone assumes #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue?
$BTC's surge past 72,000 was directly driven by a massive short squeeze—187,000 liquidations in 24 hours, with over $3.4 billion in short positions closed. The price was pushed up by forced buying. This kind of breakout is intense, but how long it can last is questionable.
On the macro side, there is support: US Treasury repos weakened the dollar, and since August, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of $1.48 billion, indicating institutional activity. Technically, 72,000 is right at the 200-day moving average resistance, and the RSI has reached 85, signaling short-term overheating. If the 68,000 support level fails, this breakout needs to be reassessed.
Next, watch two things: whether the price can hold above 72,000, and whether ETF funds continue to flow in. These two factors are more telling than the price movement itself.
The market carries risks; the above does not constitute investment advice. ① Nasdaq Composite Index Current Market: On August 19 (Wednesday) Eastern Time, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 41.38 points, an increase of 0.16%, closing at 26,331.09 points. The previously pressured U.S. stock market has somewhat stabilized after several consecutive trading days. Driving Factors: U.S. Treasury yields fell. The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to decline significantly — the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6 basis points to 4.65%, and the 30-year yield fell 8.9 basis points to 5.195%. Retail companies' earnings exceeded expectations. Some large retail companies reported earnings above expectations, boosting sentiment in the consumer sector. Federal Reserve meeting minutes released. The July meeting minutes showed clear divisions among officials regarding inflation and policy outlook — some officials support further tightening, while most believe the direction should continue to be data-dependent. Sector Performance: Among the eleven major sectors of the S&P 500, seven rose and four fell, with the healthcare sector leading gains at 3.52%. The technology sector fell 0.73%, with semiconductor and memory chip stocks still under pressure. Summary: After consecutive declines, the Nasdaq slightly stabilized and rebounded, mainly supported by the drop in U.S. Treasury yields. However, the technology and semiconductor sectors still face pressure, with the continued weakness in memory chip stocks being a significant drag. ② Dow Jones Industrial Average Current Market: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 119.65 points on Wednesday, an increase of 0.22%, closing at 53,463.05 points. The S&P 500 index rose 16.22 points, an increase of 0.21%, Current BTC market situation, I still have remaining positions personally, and I plan to prepare two strategies:
(1) STH-RP right-side confirmation: If BTC can hold above the short-term holder real cost price STH-RP, then follow the trend on the right side.
(2) After recently backtesting various data models, the reason I still have 40% of my position unfilled is that I can't let go of the traditional four-year halving cycle in my heart: in past halving cycles, the MVRV trend clearly overlapped. Currently, August 23 to the end of August is an important observation window. If BTC does not show a significant pullback during this period, it indicates that this cycle is deviating from the traditional four-year cycle structure.
(3) Another important reason is that in the traditional four-year cycle, the time from top to bottom is basically one year. By this calculation, early October would be the BTC bottom. However, now that institutions have entered, the cycle rhythm may really be deviating from the traditional four-year cycle structure. By the end of this year, it will be clear whether this cycle has changed.
(Purely personal crypto trading sharing, not investment advice, all bear their own profits and losses) 🔥Last night's market action, many only noticed the simultaneous rise of US stocks and gold, but the real trigger was the hidden thread of US Treasury bonds.
The 30-year US Treasury yield recently hit a temporary high, prompting global funds to collectively sell long-term US Treasuries—in simple terms, the market cast a big question mark on the US's long-term debt repayment ability. Bonds were smashed, prices fell, yields soared, which is a fatal blow to the US's long-term credit.
The Treasury Department finally couldn't sit still.
They directly intervened: issuing short-term debt financing, repurchasing existing long-term government bonds in the market, forcibly pushing down long-term yields. Once the news broke, the market instantly rallied—US stocks rebounded, gold surged sharply, $BTC led crypto gains, and $ETH violently caught up.
But behind this lies a deeper paradox.
The real solution to the debt problem is to cut fiscal spending. But with midterm elections approaching and rounds of debt ceiling battles, large-scale spending cuts? Politically, that's suicide. So they can only play "debt shuffling"—bury today's landmines for tomorrow, passing risks to the future.
The Fed still talks about balance sheet reduction, maintaining a tightening stance.
But the Treasury's actions effectively signal to the market: if trouble arises, I will bail out. Fiscal discipline? Nonexistent.
This puts the Fed in an extremely awkward position.
On one hand, it must raise rates to fight inflation; on the other, the Treasury forces support for the bond market, making policy independence a joke. The market now has a "conditioned reflex"—whenever it can't hold, someone will backstop. This backstop essentially means disguised money printing, so inflation flames never fully extinguish.
This explains why US stocks and gold can strengthen simultaneously—not because fundamentals improved, but because liquidity expectations returned.
But here, I want to remind about gold.
International gold prices touched around $4500, looking unstoppable. But when converted to RMB, domestic gold prices did not hit new highs simultaneously—a large part of the gains was eaten up by RMB appreciation. The same gold surged in USD terms, but your actual returns are discounted. Keep this in mind.
On the technical side, taking gold daily chart as example (CMX gold continuous contract):
· Structure: Daily chart accelerated wedge after breaking 4300, currently touching the 4500 round number, which coincides with the weekly Fibonacci extension 1.618 level and the upper boundary of the 2024 ascending channel resistance zone.
· Pattern: On 4-hour chart, two consecutive long upper shadows appeared, indicating short-term "rally met resistance," but the lower EMA21 (around 4430) remains intact, trend not broken.
· Cycle: Daily trend still bullish, but smaller cycles (1H/4H) entered overbought divergence zone, RSI above 70 is dulled, MACD red bars start to shorten—this is not a place to chase longs, but a node to observe pullback strength.
· Key levels: Strong resistance above at 4515-4530, breakout opens space to 4600; support at 4460 first, then 4430 (EMA21 + previous top-bottom flip). If pullback to 4430 holds, it's a right-side long entry opportunity; if volume breaks below 4460 and fails to rebound, short-term correction begins.
· Rule: Follow trend but don't chase highs. Reduce position or move stop loss up at key resistance, re-enter after pullback confirms support, safer than blindly chasing highs.
On the US stock side, S&P futures near 4500 also face weekly supply zone; Nasdaq is more clearly boosted by falling Treasury yields, but tech valuations already reflect "rate cut expectations"—if upcoming inflation data disappoints, the pullback will be severe.
As for $BTC, this leading rally is essentially a liquidity-sensitive asset frenzy, 4-hour chart shows an ascending channel, current upper edge near 68000 (hypothetical price, actual per current), also facing resistance.
The core issue now is:
The market no longer trusts the Fed. No matter how much Powell talks, as long as he doesn't dare to truly raise rates, the market trades on "easy money" expectations.
But the end of easy money is repeated inflation.
This game will break sooner or later.
Follow the trend short-term, but always use stop loss, especially near key resistance levels, don't get carried away by emotions.
Keep the gold 4430 long base position, reduce half near 4515, hold the rest for breakout; if pullback to 4460 stabilizes, add longs. If breaks 4430, wait and see.
In this market, it's not about who predicts right, but who survives longer.
Let's encourage each other.
#Gold #USStocks #USTreasury #BTC #TradingNotesDon't underestimate this $ETH breakout.
Because it might be undergoing a very important change:
From "following BTC's rise" to "attracting funds on its own."
In the past few months, ETH has been suppressed below $2,000.
The market's interest in it was clearly less than BTC.
But things suddenly changed these past two days.
ETH directly broke through $2,000, then surged up to around $2,300, completing nearly a 20% spike in a short time.
More importantly, funds started to follow.
On August 19, spot ETH ETF net inflow in a single day reached about $189M, marking the largest single-day inflow in nearly 10 months.
The derivatives market also saw drastic changes.
ETH derivatives volume surged over 24 hours, with more than $1B worth of ETH shorts liquidated, which directly fueled the upward momentum. (Coin Edition)
So this current rally is actually very interesting:
Macro liquidity expectations improve,
BTC breaks out first,
ETH follows with a catch-up rally,
ETF funds enter the market,
Short sellers start collectively stopping losses.
This is not just a simple big bullish candle.
This is a simultaneous change in funds, sentiment, and positions.
But the more this kind of rally happens, the more you shouldn't chase blindly.
Next, I’m only watching two levels:
$2,300: strong short-term resistance.
$2,000-$2,100: core support zone after the breakout. Key watershed at 135
Holding above 135 still offers a chance to test the 140‑152 resistance range, which belongs to a weak rebound market;
A valid break below 135 confirms a bearish trend, and it will retest the 110‑121 support zone.
Don't fall into a misconception:
Big players don't necessarily have to bottom fish at 105.
After the stock price rises, institutions can also rotate and raise their chips; similarly, as the price moves higher, old shareholders' willingness to cash out strengthens.
Two mid-term paths
1. Strong path: Volume expands and holds above 156, with oscillation digesting unlocked chips, then there's a chance to challenge previous highs;
2. Weak path: Rebound lacks volume, each round of rise is accompanied by escape of restricted chips, long-term range oscillation, back-and-forth consolidation.
Overall volatility will be much greater than ordinary stocks. Unlocking is a long-term hidden risk, while financial reports, Starlink, and AI business progress are the core logic determining the trend $SPCX The real point to note about this $ETH surge is not "how much it has risen."
It's that capital is finally starting to reprice ETH.
Yesterday, ETH was hovering around $1,900, then directly broke through $2,000, reaching as high as around $2,300, with a short-term increase close to 20%. (Exchange Rate Query Network)
Why such a strong move?
First, BTC broke through $70K, and the entire market's risk appetite instantly returned.
Second, the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, easing pressure on long-end yields, and the market began trading on expectations of improved liquidity.
But what really caught my attention is the third point:
ETH ETF capital is clearly accelerating.
On August 19, the U.S. spot ETH ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $189M, the largest single-day inflow since October 2025. (BeInCrypto)
This means this ETH rise is not just retail sentiment.
There is real institutional capital coming in.
Combined with a large number of shorts forced to cover, ETH formed a cycle:
ETF buying → price breakout → short stop-loss → forced liquidation buying → continued rise
Once this cycle forms, the market can easily enter an acceleration phase.
But don’t get carried away now.
Around $2,300 has already entered a clearly high volatility zone, and the short-term RSI shows overbought signals.
My main point is simple:
$2,000 is the new boundary between bulls and bears. $SPCX SPCX 133.64, dropped from 140 to 132, even AI news at the level of Grok 4.6 launching on Amazon Bedrock can't move it, the market's attitude toward this asset is already very clear. The problem with SPCX is that unlocking expectations are suppressing the price too much—no matter what news comes out, as long as the shadow of unlocking remains, the price will struggle to truly strengthen. Positive news instead becomes an opportunity to sell, and this kind of trend is the most painful.😅
SAR=145.18 is high above, EMA21=140.38, EMA55=139.02, all pressing down on the price, which is tightly suppressed by all moving averages. But KDJ's J value=1.79, K=17.18, D=24.88—low-level death cross continues, the K line has never crossed above the D line. RSI6=10.37, this value is indeed quite rare for SPCX. The price has been continuously falling over several trading days, the bearish momentum may be approaching exhaustion.
The problem is—oversold does not mean the downtrend will stop. Unlocking expectations are the ceiling pressing down on the entire contract; as long as this expectation remains, the price will hardly see a decent rebound. News like Grok 4.6 launching on Bedrock might be a catalyst for a big rise in other assets, but for SPCX it only reduces the decline a bit.
Comment below, do you think SPCX can hold 130? Or will it fall below 120 before unlocking? I choose to place an order at 125 with a stop loss at 120; if it reaches, I buy, if not, I keep watching. Experience from missing out on SanDisk tells me: the harder it falls, the more patience is needed to wait for confirmation.🔥
SpaceX's fundamentals are fine, but SPCX's contract structure has unlocking issues. When fundamentals and technicals conflict, it's best to respect the technicals. Before the unlocking day, all rebounds might be traps. Bring it on if you disagree.😅🔴 Breaking | Cantor Fitzgerald grants 3000 institutional clients access to block trades on Kalshi contracts
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📰 The news
Cantor Fitzgerald will grant about 3000 of its institutional clients access to block trades in event contracts on the Kalshi platform.
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— This comes despite the escalating legal battles Kalshi is facing in New York, Washington, and Utah
— The platform gains direct institutional trust from one of the largest brokerage firms on Wall Street
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🟢 Institutional support that strengthens its legal position? Or a risk despite ongoing disputes? 👇
⬡ LEGENDARY_007Crypto market warms up overnight, who's igniting the fire behind the scenes?
After months of silence, a long-awaited broad rally finally arrives.
Three fires ignite the market
This wave of momentum came quickly but was not without signs. In recent weeks, Bitcoin hovered around the $60,000 mark, with prices barely moving and buying pressure insufficient. Today, several factors coincided:
🔥 First fire: U.S. Treasury market
The U.S. Treasury Department announced it will increase liquidity support for repurchase operations on 10- to 30-year Treasuries, raising the single operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
Once the news broke, long-term U.S. Treasury yields quickly fell. The 30-year yield dropped nearly 10 basis points intraday, the 10-year yield returned to about 4.65%, and the dollar index weakened noticeably.
When long-term yields approached 5.34%, capital preferred risk-free assets. Now with yields falling and the dollar weakening, high-risk assets get a breather.
🔥 Second fire: New SEC draft
On August 18, the U.S. SEC proposed new rules, with key highlights including:
For startups, a maximum $5 million issuance exemption, plus up to $75 million financing exemption every 12 months.
More importantly, a “safe harbor” rule—if projects fulfill their development and operational commitments or officially announce cessation and report to the SEC, their tokens will no longer be considered securities. This means freer trading and exchange listings without sudden regulatory crackdowns.
In short: the U.S. finally drew a clear “graduation line” for crypto projects, reducing uncertainty. On the same day, crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Circle also strengthened significantly.
🔥 Third fire: Whales accumulating for a long time
Big money moves didn’t just appear today:
CryptoQuant data shows that over the past 60 days, large Bitcoin holders have net increased their holdings by about 43,000 BTC, worth nearly $3 billion at current prices.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 30-day “spot demand” has rapidly recovered from about -206,000 BTC on July 23 to about -5,000 BTC on August 18, the closest to turning positive since late February.
Historical backtesting shows that when this demand indicator turns from negative to positive, Bitcoin’s median gain over the next 60 days is about 18.1%, with a roughly 78% chance of rising.
Glassnode also observed a similar phenomenon: “Strong hands” are buying Bitcoin again, and the current structure bears some resemblance to the late 2022 bear market phase.
Outlook: Is the bull market returning quickly?
Technical analyst Aksel Kibar points out that $BTC daily chart is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a key neckline around $66,600. A valid breakout could target $76,000. After today’s breakout, about $1.4 billion in short positions were liquidated within 4 hours, further amplifying the gains.
Variables to watch:
First, whether the $68,000 level can hold firmly and become effective support.
Second, whether the retreat momentum of Treasury yields and the dollar can continue.
Third, clues from the Fed’s July meeting minutes on the future interest rate path.
Fourth, whether leading altcoins like $ETH and $SOL can maintain relative strength, helping us judge if this recovery is localized or a broad market rebound.
More bottom signals are emerging, but this does not directly equate to a new bull market start. The market is warming up, but the road ahead still requires observation.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 On August 19, Bitcoin $BTC surged straight up from around $64,000, reaching an intraday high of $69,888. Within 24 hours, $1.44 billion worth of short positions were wiped out in one wave. 110,000 people were liquidated. What’s different about this rebound compared to before? Is it a true reversal or a one-time pulse? This rebound indeed has "quality." First, the macro policy is structural, not just temporary rhetoric. The U.S. Treasury announced it will double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. This is not empty talk; it’s a scheduled policy change. Once the news broke, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged from 5.34% (the highest since 2007) directly down to 5.19%. As yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin decreases. Second, ETF funds are real. On August 17, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $297.6 million, followed by another $189.3 million on August 18, totaling $487 million over two days. BlackRock’s IBIT led the way. This reversed the previous continuous outflow pressure. This is not empty talk; it’s real money. Third, regulatory signals are improving. The White House held a crypto meeting, and Trump publicly pressured Congress to pass the "Clarity Act." Meanwhile, the SEC proposed new rules exempting certain token issuances from securities registration requirements. Regulatory uncertainty is decreasing. The guardrails for institutional entry are being set up. Fourth, on-chain data is positive. Net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges continue—coins are moving from exchanges to cold wallets. Leverage is decreasing. Ethereum once plummeted 90%, nearly perishing: Understanding Ethereum's ups and downs is more important than just betting on price swings
⚠️Content is only a historical review of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice
Many only know ETH as the second largest by market cap, but few realize it has repeatedly faced collapse, growing from a whitepaper written by a teenager into the foundational base of the entire Web3. Understanding its rise and fall is more important than simply betting on price movements.
1. Germination: An experiment not taken seriously
In 2013, 19-year-old Vitalik wrote the Ethereum whitepaper, proposing the concept of a world computer: Bitcoin could only transfer value, but Ethereum could run smart contracts, enabling blockchain to run various applications.
In 2014, a crowdfunding raised funds by exchanging Bitcoin for ETH. Most of the Bitcoin community was skeptical, thinking the new project was too abstract and overly ambitious.
In July 2015, the mainnet launched with very few early developers. It was just a niche technical experiment without large-scale applications, prices were low, and few recognized its future potential.
2. Life-or-death crisis: Hacker theft in the first year nearly ended it
In 2016, the major The DAO security incident occurred, where hackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to steal 3.6 million ETH, worth tens of millions of dollars at the time.
The market panicked, and the coin price was halved. The community erupted in debate: since blockchain pursues immutability, should there be a hard fork to roll back transactions and recover losses?
After debate, the vast majority chose a hard fork to recover the stolen assets, which also split off Ethereum Classic (ETC).
This was Ethereum's darkest hour, with widespread pessimism and many declaring the project dead, but the community survived the governance crisis and lived on.
3. First breakout: ICO bubble, instant fame (2017)
The ERC-20 token standard was born, countless new projects issued tokens on Ethereum, and the ICO wave swept the entire crypto market.
ETH surged from single digits, firmly establishing itself as the second largest cryptocurrency.
But the bubble came fast and burst quickly. The 2018 bear market arrived, countless ICO projects went to zero, ETH plummeted 90% from its peak, and network congestion and high Gas fees were magnified, leading to widespread criticism again.
4. Bear market consolidation: Bubble fades, real ecosystem begins to grow (2018-2020)
The bull market bubble faded, speculative funds left, and developers stayed to build.
DeFi slowly sprouted, with lending and decentralized exchanges launching; NFT standards took shape.
Outsiders still complained about Ethereum's slowness and high fees, but the underlying infrastructure quietly iterated, preparing for the next big rally.
5. Two major narratives ignite, reaching historic highs (2020-2021)
1. DeFi summer: lending, swaps, liquidity mining exploded, with massive funds flowing on-chain;
2. NFT wave: CryptoKitties and profile picture NFTs went viral, bringing Ethereum into the public eye.
EIP-1559 launched, implementing fee burning, giving ETH deflationary properties, and the price hit an all-time high of $4,878.
6. Epic upgrade: The Merge, completing the transition from mining to staking (2022)
After years of work, The Merge was completed, bidding farewell to GPU mining and switching to PoS staking consensus, reducing energy consumption by 99%, sharply shrinking ETH issuance, and officially forming the deflation narrative.
The upgrade process was not smooth, with multiple delays and strong opposition from miners, but it was implemented under great pressure. Subsequent Cancun upgrades pushed Layer 2 scaling, solving the long-standing high fee problem.
7. Review: Ethereum's comeback and lessons for ordinary people
1. No one is invincible; even great projects have faced death multiple times. ETH endured hacker attacks, bear market crashes, and upgrade delays, not rising smoothly but surviving crisis after crisis.
2. True value comes from the ecosystem, not mere hype. Its strength lies in DeFi, NFT, stablecoins, Layer 2, and thousands of developers continuously building together, not a single concept.
3. Bull markets are results, not starting points. The surges in 2017 and 2021 came from years of technical consolidation during bear markets. Many only see the later glory and ignore the long early struggles when no one cared.
4. Technical roadmaps are never smooth; upgrades will be delayed and controversial. Focus on long-term implementation results, don’t be scared off by short-term negatives or blindly brainwashed by hype.
ETH’s current status did not come out of nowhere. It shows us: sector narratives are important, but the underlying logic of long-term comebacks is surviving crises, continuous iteration, and ecosystem growth.
$ETH #Ethereum #Web3 #WhiteHouseSummit: Trump Claims to Have Discussed Buying BTC The White House crypto industry summit released major policy signals. Trump publicly stated that the government has been studying plans to massively increase BTC holdings and expand the national digital reserve. This news directly ignited the crypto market, causing a concentrated liquidation of shorts.
This policy is not a temporary proposal; a 2025 executive order has established a strategic Bitcoin reserve, locking in 198,000 BTC seized through law enforcement. The current enhancement plan has three deep purposes: first, to position BTC as digital gold to hedge against high U.S. debt and dollar oversupply risks, enriching national reserve assets; second, to seize global crypto regulatory discourse power, consolidating digital financial hegemony through the dollar stablecoin; third, to adopt a budget-neutral plan by revaluing gold assets to complete coin purchases without new fiscal expenditure. Meanwhile, the White House is simultaneously pushing crypto legislation and opening institutional custody channels, maintaining a continuously relaxed industry compliance environment.
Combined with macroeconomic tailwinds, the U.S. Treasury is increasing long-term bond repurchases to suppress U.S. Treasury yields, institutional risk appetite is recovering, spot ETFs continue net inflows, and ETH and platform tokens are rising sharply.
However, there are clear risks to the sustainability of the rally: it is currently only at the discussion stage without congressional legislation in place, so short-term benefits may be overextended; Federal Reserve FOMC officials still have rate hike disagreements, and inflation rebounds will again suppress risk asset valuations. In the medium to long term, the narrative of the U.S. including BTC in sovereign reserves is fully established, institutional long-term allocation logic is confirmed, and after digesting profit-taking through volatility, there remains upward potential. $BTC $ETH $SOL Reviewing Ethereum's "Darkest Hour" and Its Comeback
⚠️Content is only a historical review of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice
Many people only know ETH as the second largest by market cap, but they don't know it has faced multiple near-collapse moments, growing from a whitepaper written by a teenager into the foundational base of the entire Web3. Understanding its ups and downs is more important than simply betting on price movements.
1. Germination: An Unfavored Experimental Project
In 2013, 19-year-old Vitalik wrote the Ethereum whitepaper, proposing the concept of a world computer: Bitcoin could only transfer value, while Ethereum could run smart contracts, enabling blockchain to run various applications.
In 2014, a crowdfunding campaign raised funds by exchanging Bitcoin for ETH. At that time, most of the Bitcoin community was skeptical, thinking the new project was too abstract and overly ambitious.
In July 2015, the mainnet launched with very few early developers. It was just a niche technical experiment without large-scale applications, prices were low, and few realized its future potential.
2. Life-or-Death Crisis: Hacker Theft in the First Year Nearly Ended It
In 2016, the major security incident of The DAO occurred, where hackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to steal 3.6 million ETH, worth tens of millions of dollars at the time.
The market panicked, and the coin price was halved. The community erupted in a huge debate: since blockchain pursues immutability, should there be a hard fork to roll back transactions and recover losses?
After the debate, the vast majority chose a hard fork to recover the stolen assets, which also led to the split creating Ethereum Classic (ETC).
This was Ethereum's darkest hour, with widespread pessimism and many declaring the project dead, but the community survived the governance crisis and lived on.
3. First Boom: ICO Bubble, Instant Fame (2017)
The ERC-20 token standard was born, and countless new projects issued tokens on Ethereum, sparking an ICO wave across the crypto market.
ETH surged from single digits, firmly establishing itself as the second largest cryptocurrency.
But the bubble burst quickly. The 2018 bear market arrived, countless ICO projects went to zero, ETH plummeted 90% from its peak, network congestion and high Gas fees were magnified, and criticism flooded back.
4. Bear Market Consolidation: Bubble Fades, Real Ecosystem Begins to Grow (2018-2020)
The bull market bubble faded, speculative funds left, and developers stayed to build.
DeFi began to sprout, with lending and decentralized exchanges launching; NFT standards took shape.
Outsiders still complained about Ethereum's slowness and high fees, but the underlying infrastructure quietly iterated, preparing for the next big market cycle.
5. Two Major Narratives Ignite, Leading to Historic Highlights (2020-2021)
1. DeFi Summer: lending, swaps, and liquidity mining exploded, with massive capital flowing on-chain;
2. NFT wave: CryptoKitties and profile picture NFTs went viral, bringing Ethereum into the public eye.
EIP-1559 launched, implementing a fee burn mechanism, giving ETH deflationary properties, and the price hit an all-time high of $4,878.
6. Epic Upgrade: The Merge, Completing the Transition from Mining to Staking (2022)
The years-long The Merge was completed, bidding farewell to GPU mining and switching to PoS staking consensus, reducing energy consumption by 99%, sharply shrinking ETH issuance, and officially forming the deflation narrative.
The upgrade process was not smooth, with multiple delays and strong opposition from miners, but it was implemented under great pressure. Subsequent Cancun upgrades pushed Layer 2 scaling, solving the long-standing high fee problem.
7. Review: Ethereum's Comeback and Lessons for Ordinary People
1. There is no eternal god; even great projects have faced death multiple times. ETH endured hacker attacks, bear market crashes, and upgrade delays, not rising smoothly but surviving crisis after crisis.
2. True value comes from the ecosystem, not mere hype stories. Its strength lies in DeFi, NFT, stablecoins, Layer 2, and thousands of developers continuously building together, not a single concept.
3. Bull markets are results, not starting points. The surges in 2017 and 2021 came from years of technical consolidation during bear markets. Many only see the later glory and ignore the long early struggles when no one cared.
4. Technical roadmaps won't be smooth; upgrades will be delayed and controversial. Focus on long-term implementation results, don't be scared off by short-term negatives or blindly brainwashed by hype.
ETH's current status did not come out of nowhere. It tells us: sector narratives are important, but the underlying logic of long-term comebacks is surviving crises, continuous iteration, and ecosystem growth.
$ETH #Ethereum #Web3According to the hourly chart structure, after the gold price adjustment, there was a rebound, but the high point did not surpass 4500. Currently, the gold low has retraced near 4450. The technical levels are still within the expected range, but the overall intraday trend is more of an adjustment rhythm, with almost no renewed upward momentum. This contradicts the overnight rally, indicating that the short-term gold trend is not driven by its own structure but is entirely influenced by external factors.
Therefore, gold is still expected to fluctuate tonight, and the range may shift downward.
For technical levels tonight, resistance can be watched at 4490 and 4500, while support is at 4450 and 4430-4420.
For aggressive traders, short-term long positions at lows and short positions at highs around these levels can be considered, but it is essential to maintain very light positions. #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ Most people were probably stunned by this sudden one-sided market move last night
Stayed up all night trying to figure it out but probably still confused
Let me roughly explain why it surged so ridiculously last night
First is the buildup of emotions, the market had been stagnant for a long time. Crypto is like fish without water enduring a drought for a long time
Second, last night the US Treasury announced a bond repurchase plan, which reduced the amount of bonds in the market. When supply decreases, prices go up, yields go down, and with lower yields, people stop buying bonds. Large funds then shifted to gold and btc
This is my personal view, what do you all think $ETH $BTC $SNDK #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
$BTC touched 72000, but it still feels unstable
BTC did reach 72000, but it couldn't hold that level and drifted back near 71800. It surged nearly 12% in 24 hours, with shorts liquidated over 1.4 billion.
Three factors combined to push it up: the Treasury announced doubling the long-term bond buyback limit to 4 billion, US Treasury yields fell; the White House confirmed the CLARITY Act vote on September 15; short positions were too crowded, triggering chained liquidations once prices broke 66,000 and 68,000.
But the issue is—this sharp rally mainly relies on short covering and leverage, not a one-time entry of medium-to-long-term funds. The daily RSI is already in the overbought zone, the 200-day moving average is around 71700, and the price just crossed it, but it’s just barely past resistance.
$ETH has indeed turned to net inflows these past two days, but it just experienced a 390 million net outflow in mid-August, so institutional flows remain unstable.
72000 was touched, but whether it can hold depends on if it can stabilize in the next few days 𓏼 𓈒♡ྀིBitcoin is up 10.97% to $71,995.94 in 24h, leading a broad market rally primarily driven by a major US Treasury policy shift that weakened the dollar and ignited a historic short squeeze. It shows a strong correlation (-65%) with the S&P 500, indicating a macro-driven move.
1. Primary reason: US Treasury's bond buyback expansion, a form of quantitative easing that weakened the dollar and boosted demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin.
2. Secondary reasons: A record-breaking short squeeze #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 $SNDK Sandisk (闪迪 SNDK) Complete Analysis
Risk Warning: This is only a market logic review and does not constitute investment advice. Spun off from Western Digital and independently listed on Nasdaq in 2025‑02, the only pure NAND flash stock in the US market, having divested the mechanical hard drive business, fully benefiting from the AI inference storage wave.
Business Structure
1. AI Data Center Business (Primary growth curve, accounting for 60% of revenue)
Focuses on large-capacity QLC enterprise-grade SSDs, targeting RAG, KV caching, and AI inference scenarios; the flagship platform Stargate supplies cloud providers under long-term contracts for many years and is the core source of performance explosion.
2. Edge & Industrial Storage (30%)
Automotive, IoT, industrial embedded flash memory, with gross margins higher than consumer products.
3. Consumer Business (10%)
SD cards, USB drives, consumer SSDs, strong retail channels in photography and drones; the company strategically reduces the weight of this low-margin business.
Manufacturing Model: Joint venture wafer fab with Kioxia producing BiCS series 3D‑NAND, avoiding bearing all capital expenditures alone but dependent on the joint venture partner.
Bullish Core Logic
1. Structural Increment from AI Inference
The explosion of large model inference, Agents, and RAG requires massive low-cost persistent NAND caching. The market expects AI data center NAND demand to reach ZB scale by 2030, opening long-term potential. GPUs are core for training, large-capacity NAND is essential for inference.
2. NBM New Long-term Supply Agreement, Attempting to Mitigate Cyclical Impact
Accumulated about $93.9 billion in multi-year long-term orders; over half of shipments in fiscal 2027 and two-thirds in fiscal 2028 are locked in advance. Some contracts include prepayments and financial guarantees, using a "fixed + floating price adjustment" model, partially isolating the impact of sharp spot NAND price fluctuations.
Management Statement: After capital expenditures are completed, all excess cash will be returned to shareholders, mainly through stock buybacks.
3. Short-term Industry Supply Constraints
Wafer fabs and advanced packaging have long construction cycles, making rapid capacity expansion difficult in the short term; manufacturers prioritize high-margin enterprise-grade chips, shrinking general consumer NAND supply, pushing ASPs up and significantly raising gross margins.
4. Strong Financial Position
Latest financial report shows revenue and EPS significantly exceeding expectations, gross margin near 80%, free cash flow greatly improved, no large long-term debt burden.
Core Risks (Market's Biggest Disagreements)
1. The Cycle Has Not Truly Disappeared, Only Masked by AI Narratives
Long-term contracts smooth fluctuations but cannot eliminate cycles. If high margins attract large-scale capacity expansion by major manufacturers, NAND oversupply and spot price declines will pressure profits despite contract price adjustment mechanisms. NAND cycles have historically seen multiple sharp rises and falls.
2. Realistic Loopholes in Long-term Contracts
Long-term contracts do not guarantee 100% minimum revenue; risks include customer defaults, renegotiations, and downward floating price adjustments; many orders are for future fulfillment, not current cash, so orders cannot be simply counted as realized profits.
3. Risk of AI Capital Expenditure Falling Short of Expectations
If large model iteration slows and cloud providers cut capital budgets, inference storage demand will decline, directly impacting company orders and valuation—this is the biggest narrative risk.
4. Competitive Pressure
Samsung and Micron push enterprise-grade large-capacity SSDs; domestic storage manufacturers continue to catch up, suppressing consumer and some enterprise product ASPs; heavy reliance on joint venture partner Kioxia creates supply chain constraints.
5. Valuation and Shareholding Risks
Since spin-off listing, stock price has surged significantly with high valuation; original parent Western Digital's share reduction and executive lock-up expirations may bring secondary market selling pressure; stock price has very low tolerance for earnings and guidance misses, prone to sharp corrections on slight disappointments.
Key Observation Indicators
1. NAND Flash Spot/Contract ASP Prices
2. NBM Long-term Contract Order Coverage, Prepayments, Financial Guarantee Scale
3. North American Cloud Providers' Capital Expenditure Guidance
4. Samsung and Micron's Expansion Pace and Enterprise SSD Shipments
5. Company's Capital Expenditure Plans and Buyback Execution
Three Scenario Simulations
1. Base Case (Neutral)
AI inference demand remains robust, long-term contracts continue; NAND supply and demand are tight. Performance stays high, but cyclical nature limits valuation; stock price fluctuates with storage sector, Nasdaq futures.
2. Optimistic Scenario
AI inference storage demand exceeds expectations; competitors' expansion lags; long-term contracts keep adding orders; HBF high-bandwidth flash new technology successfully launched, maintaining product premium. Stock price continues upward.
3. Pessimistic Scenario
Cloud providers cut capital expenditures; industry expansion causes NAND oversupply and ASP decline; long-term contract terms loosen. Earnings rapidly revised down, valuation suffers double hit, stock deeply corrected.
Summary
Sandisk is a cyclical growth stock in AI inference storage.
The market's biggest debate: to what extent multi-year long-term contracts rewrite the NAND cycle.
If contracts truly materialize, it will escape the traditional storage's boom-bust pattern; but if supply floods and AI demand cools, it will revert to storage cycle stock pricing logic.
It will not have an independent trend, with pre-market and intraday movements highly correlated with Micron, SK Hynix, Nasdaq futures, and US Treasury yields.Micron's $10 billion investment in building a storage lab is driving up capital expenditures, while the 9-to-3 rate hike split in the FOMC minutes intensifies discount rate pressure. The core conflict lies in the interplay between long-term technological barrier pricing and short-term liquidity tightening.
The massive $10 billion R&D investment has changed the market's judgment on the capital expenditure cycle of the storage sector, increasing the sensitivity of discounted future cash flows. Against the backdrop of the Fed's 9-to-3 rate hike split, the decline in macro risk appetite is transmitting to high-valuation tech stocks, with trading desks beginning to reduce leveraged positions to avoid liquidity tightening pressure.
In terms of driving factors, the evolution of the macro discount rate environment is the primary driver, followed by Micron's efficiency in sharing R&D costs with the government and universities, and lastly the actual consumption rate of storage capacity driven by AI computing power expansion.
Bullish scenario: If the FOMC rate hike split leans toward maintaining rates, risk appetite recovery will improve the market's tolerance for long-cycle R&D investment. When industry-academia-research collaboration effectively reduces uncertainty in technological breakthroughs, capital will refocus on $MU, which has monopoly barriers. The invalidation signal for this scenario is a rebound in inflation data leading to renewed rate hike expectations.
Bearish scenario: If the 9-to-3 split results in another rate hike, high capital expenditures will erode free cash flow, directly triggering a valuation correction. Leveraged long positions concentrated in the semiconductor sector may face forced liquidation. The invalidation signal for this scenario is AI data growth exceeding expectations and early realization of storage commercialization benefits.
The overall scenario logic fails if Micron's cooperation mechanism with ecosystem partners breaks down or if lab investments fail to advance the existing technology roadmap.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are Fed officials' statements regarding the 9-to-3 split and the pace of position clearing in high-beta tech sector assets.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？Ethereum's Comeback Journey: 4 Insights for Ordinary People
⚠️Content is only a historical review of the track and does not constitute any investment advice
Many people only know that ETH is the second largest by market cap, but they don't know it has faced multiple near-collapse moments along the way. From a whitepaper written by a teenager, it has stumbled and grown into the foundational base of the entire Web3. Understanding its ups and downs is more important than simply betting on price movements.
1. Germination: An Undervalued Experimental Project
In 2013, 19-year-old Vitalik wrote the Ethereum whitepaper, proposing the concept of a world computer: Bitcoin could only transfer value, while Ethereum could run smart contracts, enabling blockchain to run various applications.
In 2014, crowdfunding was conducted by exchanging Bitcoin for ETH. At that time, most Bitcoin communities were skeptical, thinking this new project was too abstract and overly ambitious.
In July 2015, the mainnet launched with very few early developers. It was just a niche technical experiment without large-scale applications, prices were low, and few realized its future potential.
2. Life-or-Death Crisis: Hacker Theft in the First Year Almost Ended It
In 2016, the major security incident of The DAO occurred, where hackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to steal 3.6 million ETH, worth tens of millions of dollars at the time.
The market panicked, and the coin price was halved. The community erupted in a huge debate: since blockchain pursues immutability, should there be a hard fork to roll back transactions and recover losses?
After the debate, the vast majority chose a hard fork to recover the stolen assets, which also split off Ethereum Classic (ETC).
This was Ethereum's darkest hour, with widespread pessimism and many declaring the project dead, but the community survived the governance crisis and lived on.
3. First Boom: ICO Bubble, Instant Fame (2017)
The ERC-20 token standard was born, countless new projects issued tokens on Ethereum, and the ICO wave swept the entire crypto market.
ETH surged from single digits, firmly establishing itself as the second largest cryptocurrency.
But the bubble burst quickly. The 2018 bear market arrived, countless ICO projects went to zero, ETH plummeted 90% from its peak, network congestion and high Gas fees were magnified, and criticism flooded back.
4. Bear Market Consolidation: Bubble Fades, Real Ecosystem Begins to Grow (2018-2020)
The bull market bubble faded, speculative funds left, and developers stayed to focus on building.
DeFi began to sprout, with lending and decentralized exchanges gradually launching; NFT standards took shape.
Outsiders still complained about Ethereum's slowness and high fees, but the underlying infrastructure quietly iterated, preparing for the next big market cycle.
5. Two Major Narratives Ignite, Leading to Historic Highlights (2020-2021)
1. DeFi Summer: lending, swaps, and liquidity mining exploded, with massive capital flowing on-chain;
2. NFT wave: CryptoKitties and profile picture NFTs went viral, bringing Ethereum into the public eye.
EIP-1559 launched, implementing a fee burn mechanism, giving ETH deflationary properties, and the price hit a historic high of $4,878.
6. Epic Upgrade: The Merge, Completing the Transition from Mining to Staking (2022)
The years-long The Merge was completed, bidding farewell to GPU mining and switching to PoS staking consensus, reducing energy consumption by 99%, sharply shrinking ETH issuance, and officially forming the deflation narrative.
The upgrade process was not smooth, with multiple delays and strong opposition from miners, but it was implemented under great pressure. Subsequent Cancun upgrades pushed Layer 2 scaling, solving the long-standing high fee problem.
7. Review: Ethereum's Comeback and Lessons for Ordinary People
1. There is no eternal god; even great projects have faced death multiple times. ETH endured hacker attacks, bear market crashes, and delayed upgrades—not a steady rise, but repeatedly overcoming crises.
2. True value comes from the ecosystem, not mere hype stories. Its strength lies in DeFi, NFT, stablecoins, Layer 2, and thousands of developers continuously building together, not a single concept.
3. Bull markets are results, not starting points. The surges in 2017 and 2021 came from years of technical consolidation during bear markets. Many only see the later glory and ignore the long early struggles when no one cared.
4. Technical roadmaps won't be smooth; upgrades will be delayed and controversial. Focus on long-term implementation results, don't be scared off by short-term negatives or blindly brainwashed by stories.
ETH's current status did not come out of nowhere. It tells us: track narratives are important, but the underlying logic of long-term comebacks is surviving crises, continuous iteration, and ecosystem growth.
$ETH #Ethereum #Web3Previously, we reviewed the big picture framework; now let's look at the expectations for the mid-to-short term trend. $BTC's Gamma Exposure is densely concentrated around 70K, and the price has already started to repeatedly test this level. My subjective market sense is that it will "break through".
1. If it truly breaks through, it will simultaneously break a larger timeframe downtrend line, with the target being the next key resistance level at 82K-84K.
2. If it's a false breakout, there will be a pullback to accumulate momentum, possibly even a "final dip," which will again create opportunities for dollar-cost averaging and buying options.
Below 68K is a very good zone for position accumulation, and dollar-cost averaging below 84K is also not bad. By the way, it's best not to trust their claim that "this round will top out at 200,000 at most." #迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注
The boss has something to say
Marvell surged nearly 12% in pre-market trading last night, closing up 9.85% for the day at $237 per share, with a market cap reaching 207.7 billion. An 8-K filing was released, and the market immediately priced it in.
Breaking down the agreement, it has three layers:
On July 29, both parties signed a commercial agreement for Marvell to produce custom semiconductors for Google. On August 18, stock warrants were officially issued, allowing Google to buy up to 58.97 million shares at $206.58 each. If fully exercised, the total value is about $12.2 billion, making Google Marvell's fifth-largest shareholder.
The stock warrants are divided into two parts:
· 1.36 million shares vesting quarterly within the first year
· 57.61 million shares linked to purchase volume. From Q3 of fiscal 2027 to the end of fiscal 2033, for every $500 million in custom chip revenue generated, a batch will be unlocked, totaling 240 batches.
This mechanism deeply ties Google's interests to Marvell's performance. The more Google purchases, the more equity it gains, locking both parties in until 2033.
The cooperation covers the entire TPU ecosystem chain:
AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, network interface controllers, memory interface controllers, near-memory computing. It covers multiple key nodes in Google's data center AI compute chain. Over the past decade, Google mainly cooperated with Broadcom on TPU; they just renewed the contract in April but now are bringing Marvell into the fold.
Broadcom fell 4.57% that day. RBC maintains an outperform rating on Marvell with a target price of $360. Bernstein analysts say Broadcom's dominance in the TPU field is under pressure. Barclays believes the impact is on small-scale inference chip projects, not the main TPU battlefield.
Looking ahead:
Marvell's Q2 fiscal 2024 earnings call is on August 27. Analysts expect revenue of $2.71 billion, up 35% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $0.93. The market will focus on management's guidance regarding the Google partnership—how much revenue this deal can contribute and when volume will ramp up are key to sustaining this rally. The stock warrants themselves do not generate immediate revenue but provide the market with revenue visibility through 2033.
Competition for AI custom chips has extended from products to capital binding. Google is locking Marvell into the TPU ecosystem with $12.2 billion in equity, forming a tripartite rivalry with Broadcom and MediaTek. For the crypto market, the capital siphoning effect of AI infrastructure continues. After Bitcoin's pullback from 70059, it is oscillating around 68000, with investors waiting for a correction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is timely; positions must have stop-losses set. Good luck.$BTC surged in a big bullish candle from $64,000 directly up to the $70,000 level, simultaneously triggering the largest short squeeze since the 2021 bear market.
The immediate catalyst was the U.S. Treasury doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion per operation. The amount isn't large, but the market interpreted the signal as: if bond yields continue to spike, the Treasury will intervene to suppress them, effectively releasing liquidity indirectly. However, this news seems more like a trigger rather than the fundamental reason for the rise—the sharp rally was mainly because the market was heavily short, and this news was used to clear out shorts in bulk.
Whether the bear market is truly over needs to be assessed structurally. The key lies in the "biggest bear market gatekeeper" zone: between the average cost line of short-term holders and the 200-day moving average, which currently sits around $69,000. In the 2019 and 2022 bear markets, the official end was marked by a volume-backed break above this zone. The price has now risen above it, so the first phase is considered complete.
But two conditions remain to be confirmed: first, in the next 3 to 5 days, volume must continue to increase to absorb the accumulated selling pressure; it can't just be a one-day spike. Second, the price must not fall back below $69,000; holding above this breakout is necessary for it to be valid.
Looking upward, the next resistance zone is between $72,000 and $74,000. If volume continues to push through this range, those still waiting for $30,000 to $40,000 are only deceiving themselves. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
BTC has strongly broken through the 72000 mark, reaching a new phase high, with market sentiment fully warming up. This rally is not just short-term speculation; it is driven by a triple resonance of regulatory benefits, macro liquidity, and short squeeze, with trend strength clearly surpassing previous rebounds.
Core bullish logic: The White House summit released crypto-friendly signals, national-level coin purchase discussions, and compliance legislation advancement, thoroughly repairing the industry's medium- to long-term expectations; combined with the decline in US Treasury yields, marginal easing of macro liquidity supports risk assets, and massive concentrated short position liquidations force prices to surge rapidly.
My clear view: There is still short-term momentum for a further rise, but it will soon enter a pressure and consolidation phase, lacking conditions for a mindless one-sided short squeeze.
Currently, the market has shown obvious overextension, with short-term bulls extremely crowded and a large amount of short-term floating profits accumulated. The 73000–75000 range above is a strong previous resistance zone with heavy historical trapped positions, likely causing repeated pullbacks and shakeouts.
The real key to whether the market can continue is not sentiment but two points: first, whether ETF spot funds can continue net inflows to absorb high-level selling pressure; second, whether the core support at 70000–71000 can hold without a deep drop that erases gains.
The practical approach is very clear:
Strictly avoid chasing longs at high levels in contracts; above 72000 only reduce positions, wait for a pullback to 70500–71000 support to stabilize, then buy the dip to play for a second rally. Remember: after a pulse-like short squeeze, the market will shift from rapid rise to steady growth and consolidation; once the rhythm changes, chasing highs will be a trap. #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue? Is 72,000 just the beginning or the bears' grave? Behind the $2.99 billion liquidation, BTC is waiting for an answer. On August 20, 2026, BTC surged past $72,000, with a 24-hour increase expanding to 11.8%. The crypto market saw about $2.99 billion liquidated in 24 hours, and months of low volatility were completely shattered by a big bullish candle. 【Veteran's rambling】 This 11.8% candle was definitely not driven by spot retail buyers. The long-term US Treasury yields being pushed down was the trigger. The US Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases, and the 30-year yield fell from its 2019 highs. Funds immediately went hunting for rent—BTC, gold, and growth stocks all rose under the same mechanism. Trump met with the bosses of Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken at the White House and urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, warming regulatory expectations. Macro + policy gave the bulls a reason. But the real powder keg was the bears' own corpses. On August 19, BTC forced the liquidation of over $1 billion in short positions within an hour from around $64,000, with $2.74 billion in total short liquidations across the market in 24 hours—the largest single-day short squeeze since 2021. A trader named pension-usdt.eth had all 50,000 ETH shorts liquidated, losing $23.9 million—he had previously won 23 times in a row, earning $49 million. A short squeeze is something that the bears... Are the brothers who shorted still panicking now?
They probably aren't panicking anymore, right?
Even I, a heavily indebted person, can see some signs. Haven't you noticed?
Last night, $ETH surged straight to 2335, liquidating my 2094 short position.
I woke up in the middle of the night to see the liquidation notice, and my mind went blank.
But after calming down and looking carefully, what is this rally relying on?
The US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, Trump meeting with Coinbase and Ripple executives to call for the CLARITY Act, and the SEC pushing a new regulatory framework.
All news-driven, none related to Ethereum's own fundamentals.
More importantly, over $1.1 billion worth of ETH shorts were liquidated in the past 24 hours, shorts liquidating shorts, pushing the price higher and higher.
This kind of rally fueled by liquidations will run out of fuel once the liquidations end.
A 20% single-day gain also means volatility risk increases rapidly, with a high possibility of a quick pullback after the surge as short-term profit-taking concentrates.
Many brothers are shouting that the bull market is back, saying Trump spoke again, and this wave of ETH will surge past 4000, BTC to 120,000.
But think about it, is that possible? From the weekly chart, the downtrend hasn't changed at all.
Now that most shorts have been liquidated, continuing to push up lacks fuel.
Those who needed to run have run, those who needed to stop loss have stopped loss, the rest are tough bones like me holding firm.
If it goes higher, who will provide liquidity?
Anyway, I'm not in a hurry.
My 2264 short position is still open, liquidation price at 2679, plenty of room.
The most abundant thing for a person in debt is patience; since I've already lost so much, waiting a few more days doesn't matter.
You shout your bull market, I'll hold my short position, let's see who breaks first.
$BTC
$SOL
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ U.S. stocks opened down, Walmart dragged the Dow down, oil prices hit a new phase high, U.S. Treasury rebound stalled, yields rose. Normally, risk assets should collectively fall. But $BTC surged 10.31%, and $ETH went even crazier, +17.77%. This is not a small rebound; funds are re-betting. Article outline - 🔍 Why stocks, bonds, gold, and oil all turned against each other - 🚀 Why crypto dares to surge against the trend - 🔥 Which codes funds are chasing today - 🎯 How to operate next Snapshot today $BTC 71,655, +10.31% $ETH 2,274, +17.77% $QQQ -0.24%, $SPY -0.19% $DXY +0.09%, $GLD -0.58% $IBIT +4.58% U.S. crude oil (USO) 134.79, +2.96% VIX 15.87, +6.65% Dow 53144.35, -0.60% 1. Why stocks, bonds, gold, and oil all turned against each other 🛢️ Today, traditional markets almost all turned green, but the way they turned green was very unusual. $QQQ -0.24%, $SPY -0.19%, Dow -0.60%, the declines don’t look big, but U.S. crude oil +2.96% directly pushed up inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury rebound stalled, yields rose. VIX +6.65% indicates rising panic. $GLD -0.58%, gold, this safe-haven asset, actually fell, $DAugust 20th US-Iran latest developments summary and analysis: Trump repeatedly emphasized economic sanctions, showing his reluctance to go all in; the US is currently in a passive stage! 1. According to Axios, the US has established a secret channel in the Strait of Hormuz to assist empty oil tankers entering the Persian Gulf to load oil. This mechanism currently enables an output of 10 million barrels per day. The US is trying to ease pressure on the energy market by releasing this information. #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 2. Trump announced an unprecedented economic war and isolation against Iran, applying pressure through economic sanctions in an attempt to force Tehran back to negotiations. 3. Iran's foreign minister responded, stating that Iran has not closed the negotiation window, but negotiations do not represent capitulation. 4. The latest Kpler data shows that on Wednesday only 9 trackable commercial vessels passed through the strait, the same as Tuesday; the Mandeb Strait decreased from 32 vessels to 27, clearly indicating that strait transportation remains in an unfavorable situation. 5. Oman and Japan simultaneously emphasized the need to push for a final agreement to ease regional tensions, meaning the final agreement on the strait between Oman and Iran remains unresolved. Summary of this phase: From the current situation, it can be seen that Trump has recently continuously hinted at economic sanctions on Iran but has not reiterated military strikes. Diplomatic pressure has relatively softened, and I believe this means Trump, approaching the midterm elections, does not dare to let the war reignite. US media, through anonymous officials, released information about the US secret channel in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to make the market believe that HormuzHow much of the recent BTC and ETH rally was "bought" by shorts?
In the past 24 hours:
• BTC short liquidations totaled about $662 million
• ETH short liquidations totaled about $366 million
• Totaling approximately $1.028 billion
At the same statistical point, the entire market's short liquidations were about $1.191 billion, with BTC and ETH accounting for about 86%.
This indicates that the market's shorts were very crowded before.
After the price broke through key levels, shorts were forced to buy to close positions, creating a cycle:
Rally → Liquidations → Forced buying → Continued rally.
So, this rally is indeed strong, but forced short covering should not be directly equated with a bull market.
Forced liquidation buying is a one-time event. The real test is whether spot funds can continue to take over after shorts are cleared, and whether BTC can hold the $68,500–70,000 range.
If it holds, the bottom's right side is further confirmed;
If it doesn't, this rally may be more of a sharp short squeeze.
If the price can continue to rise after liquidations end, that’s true strength.
#BTC #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 The steel reinforcements of this building are quietly being pulled out from the load-bearing walls.
Everyone, take a look at this blueprint. Pop Mart's main framework for this quarter—revenue of 17.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 23.8%—seems like thick walls and steady structural growth. But when you point the laser level at the net profit layer, the growth is only 10.1%. What does this mean? The building is getting taller, but the concrete grade is shrinking, and the shear wall reinforcement ratio isn't keeping up. Each additional layer of sales is being converted into usable space at a lower marginal efficiency. This is a typical "profit settlement" phenomenon; the construction crew is rushing, but the foundation's load-bearing capacity is signaling an alarm.
Now look at the distribution of regional load-bearing walls. Mainland China, the core tube, shoulders 47.3% of the growth, rising like the main tower. But what about the wings in Asia-Pacific and the Americas? One has a negative growth of 9.7%, the other collapsed by 16.5%. It's like using imported tower cranes and prestressed steel strands at the home base construction site, but switching to rusty scaffolding and poor-quality cement at overseas sites. Overseas is no longer a growth enclave but a settling annex.
What pains structural engineers the most is this—THE MONSTERS, the IP building where LABUBU is located, with a negative growth of 7.5%. This once "landmark building" now shows obvious structural cracks. You heard right—the once most beautiful curtain wall glass now reflects cracks under the sunset. In contrast, Twinkle Twinkle has surged to the second-ranked IP with nearly six times the growth. This is very much like a new steel structure suddenly emerging in an old city renovation, attracting all planners' attention, but would you dare to rely on it as the main load-bearing structure? It's too light and hasn't undergone strong wind load or earthquake simulation tests.
Inventory turnover is slowing down; don't lightly call it "de-stocking pressure." In our industry, this means the cement has been poured but the curing period is insufficient, strength hasn't developed, yet you have to start hoisting the upper steel beams. Material liquidity is the cash flow of the project. Once the flow rate falls below the red line, the tower cranes on the entire site must stop, and the concrete pump trucks get clogged.
Old IPs are aging and losing appeal, new IPs haven't completed their validation cycles; the main market is brightly lit, but overseas sites are hit by a cold wave. This structural mechanics lesson is about whether a multi-IP system can really support the valuation of this skyscraper. Just like the inspection opinion we wrote during pile foundation acceptance: the crack width under ultimate load-bearing capacity has exceeded the code limits.
This building doesn't need to be built any higher. It's time to check if the raft foundation in the basement has cracked. #PopMartEarningsWatch Whenever there is a rebound, someone always pulls up the 2018 candlestick, saying that after Bitcoin hits 7600, it will definitely return to 3000, and predicts another heartbreaking crash this round will happen. But they forgot that the market was a frightened fright during the rally, but now almost everyone is bullish, with a different emotional tone. Carving a boat to find a sword ultimately only carves the shape.
I have always only played in spot positions for my main positions, avoiding leverage. When everyone is waiting for the final drop, that drop often doesn't actually happen, and the bottom has quietly formed amid divergence. Even if the market really crashes to 40,000, that's not a risk but a chance to give money. I would not hesitate to go all in. Within two months, whether it's a real bull or a false bottom will tell, but I firmly bet that this is already the bottom, and there's no need to wait any longer for the so-called deep pit. $BTC babala just got liquidated, so I took out 100U from the profits I had already withdrawn before and started over. $ETH
Although this time it was quite painful, I'm actually very glad I had a habit before: regularly withdrawing profits after making money, instead of leaving all the funds rolling in the contract account. So now I still have 130U in profit plus 100U principal!
It's precisely because of this strategy that even though I got liquidated this time, the money I withdrew before is still there. Calculating it all, I still have about 130U in profit overall and haven't given back all the previous earnings to the market because of one liquidation.
Reviewing why I got liquidated this time is actually very clear.
It wasn't simply a wrong call on ETH, but a failure to properly execute my risk strategy.
The first trade actually made money and I exited, but after re-entering, I kept adding positions. The market already proved my short-term judgment was wrong, but I didn't admit it in time and instead tried to save the position by lowering the cost through averaging down.
After the stop loss, I didn't stop either, quickly re-entering and repeatedly opening and closing positions. What should have been a small loss of a few U turned into a liquidation because I kept amplifying the mistake myself.
Actually, previous small capital challenges have proven I don't need a very high win rate. As long as I stick to entering at key points, maintain about a 1:3 risk-reward ratio, and cut losses when wrong, I can be profitable overall.
What I really failed to do this time was setting a single trade risk limit, forbidding averaging down against the trend, and stopping after consecutive stop losses.
So this time, starting over with 100U, I won't try to double it quickly for now.
First, I will redo the basics: no saving losing trades by adding positions, admit mistakes, stop after consecutive stop losses, and keep my risk-reward ratio.
And after this experience, I'm even more certain that "regularly withdrawing profits" must continue.
Because the money in the contract account, even if it's already earned, can be completely lost in one uncontrolled event as long as it stays there.
At least after this liquidation, looking back, I still have 130U in profit that really remains.
Making money is a skill.
Keeping the money you make is an even more important skill.
100U, starting over. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The Treasury raises the repurchase limit, Trump delays tariffs: Is the wild celebration in US stocks and the crypto market a real reversal or just a liquidity illusion?
Last night, global capital markets experienced an extremely rare simultaneous bull run in both stocks and bonds.
The three major US stock indices surged with high volume, while the US Treasury yields, which had been suppressing the market for days, sharply fell from their highs. Bitcoin and mainstream risk assets also followed suit, triggering a strong valuation recovery.
What completely relieved the market from the extreme tension and suffocation was a powerful combination of two major macro-level positive news:
On one hand, the US Treasury officially announced an increase in the debt repurchase limit, proactively stepping in to support the extremely tight secondary liquidity of old Treasury bonds; on the other hand, Trump suddenly announced a pause on imposing high tariffs on Canada, instantly dissipating the trade war clouds hanging over the North American supply chain.
The technical liquidity rescue combined with easing geopolitical tariff tensions instantly ignited a strong bullish sentiment across the market.
Many believe that since macro liquidity is now supported and tariff inflation risks are temporarily held back, the bull market is about to take off uncontrollably.
If you see this rebound merely as the starting line of a one-sided rally, you are likely to be harvested by major funds in the upcoming macro tug-of-war.
We must calmly analyze the true substance behind these two major positive factors:
First, the Treasury’s increase in the repurchase limit is a temporary fix, not a fundamental solution.
The Treasury’s purchase of old bonds and issuance of ultra-short-term Treasury bills essentially provides artificial respiration to the balance sheets of primary dealers on the verge of collapse. Its core purpose is to reduce the term premium and prevent a catastrophic liquidity stampede during Treasury auctions. However, the US federal government’s debt deficit exceeding $35 trillion has not decreased by a single cent. As long as the bond issuance tsunami persists, long-term rates may rise again after a short-term technical decline due to new fiscal expansion expectations.
Second, Trump’s tariff delay is just a tactical retreat at the negotiation table.
Pausing tariffs on Canada indeed removes a short-term black swan risk of imported cost inflation, providing the Federal Reserve and US tech stocks a rare breathing room. But in Trump’s classic deal-making style, tariffs are always an extreme pressure chip. Today’s pause does not mean the risk is fully eliminated. If negotiations fail to meet expectations, policy reversals could once again become a Damocles sword hanging over the market.
This means the current simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds is more of a "valuation spring rebound" from previously overly pessimistic pricing, rather than a super bull wave driven by a fundamental turnaround.
Facing this sudden celebration, my own trading discipline is very firm:
During the right-side window period of liquidity relief, hold core spot assets (such as gold, Bitcoin, and top tech leaders) to let profits run, but resolutely avoid being swept up by the frenzy to add leverage and chase highs. Use the rebound opportunity to clear out illiquid junk assets and consolidate positions into the most solid core holdings—this is the optimal strategy to cope with a volatile macro environment.
With the Treasury raising the repurchase limit combined with tariff delays, how far do you think this rebound can go? Facing the current macro tailwind, do you choose to chase higher and add positions, or optimize your holdings defensively during the rebound?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 ETH Thanks to Ethereum (Erbing), you gave me a vivid lesson in the market. I kept saying every day, constantly advising others: always have reverence for the market, always guard against extreme conditions, be very cautious when adding positions. I messed up, was careless, underestimated it. Erbing is not a 【mainstream coin】 at all; it's purely the big brother of altcoins... I blame myself for not achieving 【unity of knowledge and action】. I was wrong, stupid like a pig, made a basic mistake: I opened two 【short】 positions, one isolated margin and one cross margin. After the clear new high at 2133 at 23:27, I foolishly made a mistake and added 22+29=51 supplementary add-on positions because I thought since it dropped from 2133, that must be a strong resistance level, and it definitely couldn't rise again. Dozens of add-on orders were placed low; I remember the highest was only at 2222, which is 120 points lower than the later new high of 2342. On average, it was 160-180 points lower than 2342. Sigh, all got eaten up, tears flowing! Huge loss! Review summary: Mistakes: First, overconfident and naive mentality: thinking Erbing rising to 2133 was exaggerated and absurd, with a daily max increase of 12%, expecting some pullback. Believed that rapid sharp rises are just temporary reverse shakeouts, unreliable, unstable, and unsustainable. Specifically, the operational mistake was: to avoid ugly floating losses in the position, I added positions too quickly and frequently, with intervals too close, only 10 points apart, when the correct interval should be 80-100.This round of BTC's violent surge is driven by multiple factors resonating together.
The decline in US Treasury yields has loosened risk assets, Trump's release of crypto-friendly signals has ignited sentiment, and a large number of shorts concentrated in forced liquidations have squeezed the market, pushing the price directly upward.
But it’s important to be clear that much of this is market expectation and not fully realized. The short squeeze has strong explosive power, but the pullback's damage should not be underestimated either.
#BTCDon't just focus on the $BTC candlestick chart.
What’s most worth studying in this market might be:
Why is the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases at this particular time?
On August 19, the Treasury announced it would at least double the repurchase scale for 10–20 year and 20–30 year Treasury bonds.
Just before that, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to about 5.34%.
Putting these two events together is quite interesting.
Because when long-term interest rates keep rising, the valuation across the entire financial market comes under pressure.
Stocks suffer.
Real estate suffers.
Cryptocurrency suffers even more.
So although the Treasury’s expanded repurchase isn’t QE, it at least indicates:
The pressure in the long-end bond market is significant enough to draw policy attention.
The market then gave a very direct response:
U.S. Treasury yields fell.
BTC broke through $70K.
At the same time, a large number of shorts were liquidated, further amplifying the rally.
So now I’m not in a hurry to guess the BTC top.
There’s only one thing I want to watch:
Whether liquidity expectations can continue to improve.
If the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rise again, but BTC still firmly holds above $70K—
That means the market has started to absorb this round of macro pressure.
But if yields surge again and BTC falls back below $70K
Then this rally might have just been a very beautiful short squeeze. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Current thinking: Short $PIEVERSE
This coin is a pump-and-dump token. Since its launch, it has never truly been sold off.
It follows a fast pump and dump pattern—pumped up quickly then dumped repeatedly. Recently, it spiked to a high of 1.76 on the left side, then crashed rapidly, followed by sideways trading. Occasionally it tries to rise but then falls back down. This is a typical dump tactic. Normally, after a pump and drop, altcoins with decent liquidity attract bottom-fishing funds during sideways consolidation, but this coin has very poor liquidity. Also, the early pump-and-dump manipulation by the whales has caused very few people to hold it, resulting in extremely low liquidity—meaning no one is willing to take the bags. Coupled with a small initial circulating supply, the whales repeatedly pump to deceive and dump.
After a long period of sideways consolidation and pump-and-dump, most of the tokens have been sold off. Currently, the overall market can no longer produce big moves like LAB did. This coin has formed a cup-and-handle pattern, faking a strong breakout on the chart.
For coins with poor liquidity, refer to OM, which I called to short at 5u; it dropped 99% overnight.
Also, coins that have gone through a pump and are on a second wave of pumping have significantly reduced control because some chips have already been sold off.
I see 0.5, which will recover my forced liquidation funds.
After 0.5, let's see how the market behaves. If it's a complete dump, I expect to see 0.1 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Is $72,000 a new starting point or a trap laid by the bears? On the afternoon of August 20, BTC surged past $72,000, with a 24-hour increase expanding to 11.8%. CoinGlass data shows about $2.99 billion liquidated globally, with over 180,000 people wiped out in one wave. 【Veteran's rambling】 Let's break down the scene. This is not a bull market comeback; it's the bears getting trapped and beaten in the bathroom. BTC hovered around $60,000 for nearly half a year, with volatility hitting historic lows. Fundstrat had long warned of a 30% level volatility in the next 60 days. Low volatility is never peace; it's a powder keg inhaling air. Half a year. Bears have been stacking positions above, with the $60,000 line tested countless times. New Fire Research Institute puts it bluntly—the derivatives market accumulated a large amount of leveraged short positions. Once the price breaks through a key liquidation dense zone, forced short liquidations occur, short covering forms a chain buy, and a short squeeze positive feedback loop emerges. On August 19 alone, short liquidations exceeded $1.3 billion. This wave is a typical technical short squeeze, not a sudden fundamental shift. But! Don't rush to go All in. I've been watching ETF data for a long time and found a rather painful fact. From August 3 to 7, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow was $865 million, which looks impressive, right? But BTC price was almost flat that week, with only a 2.08% increase, while the S&P 500 actually rose$SPCX
💥 SPCX breaks below 135 tonight｜IPO price lost, what does the "break below IPO price" on the unlocking night mean
Tonight, SPCXUSDT perpetual on the 1-hour chart effectively broke below the $135 IPO price, hitting a low in the 131.1–132 range. The 135 level has shifted from a "strong support" to a "resistance." Combined with the internal share unlocking on 8/20, the market votes with its feet: the unlocked chips were not absorbed, and the break below IPO price is not a surprise but a result of liquidity testing.
1. Why is 135 so sensitive?
• 135 is SPCX's IPO price and the "psychological bottom line + dense moving average zone (MA20 around 135.6)" repeatedly defended by bulls previously.
• Tonight's break below is not a spike but two consecutive 1H closes below 135, accompanied by volume surge on the drop and volume contraction on the rebound, a standard "support turns resistance" pattern.
• Additionally, the US commercial aerospace sector stocks SpaceX / Rocket Lab both fell nearly 3% in early trading tonight, providing no underlying support for the crypto side.
2. Market structure after breaking 135
• Resistance above: 135 (former support → now resistance) → 137.2 (previous lower Bollinger Band) → 139–141 (today's consolidation box lower edge / MA20)
• Support below: 131–132 (tonight's low range) → 125–126 (previous break below IPO price rebound start) → 120 (round number, US aerospace sector continues weakening in night session) I am Jinlin
The Federal Reserve's July FOMC minutes have been released, with 9 votes in favor of maintaining the interest rate and 3 votes advocating for a rate hike. Logan, Harker, and Kashkari voted against, all calling for a 25 basis point increase. The minutes show that the majority of participants support holding steady, but several officials lean toward raising rates; if inflation does not continue to decline, policy may need to tighten further.
This is the most divided meeting minutes since 2026, with the number of dissenting votes reaching a recent high. CPI and employment data released after the meeting are weakening, and the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from over 70% to about 36%, with a 67% chance of holding steady; different tools show pricing discrepancies. The minutes also specifically mention AI infrastructure financing, AI stock valuations, and potential financial stability risks from U.S. Treasury market volatility—phrasing rarely seen before.
Regarding the impact on BTC, the minutes themselves are hawkish, but the data is turning dovish, and the market chooses to trust the data. BTC breaking through 72000 is a direct response to improved liquidity expectations. The division itself is not important; what matters is the direction the market is pricing in. Brother Ci has finished speaking, savor it. #FederalReserveJulyFOMCMinutes9to3, officials still divided on rate hikes $BTC