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$BTC Trader's Notes: Don't treat 82,000 as a local bottom
On October 18, BTC hovered around $82,012, fluctuating between 81,000 and 82,000. The 82,000 level feels more like a threshold: without a volume breakout above it, 90,000 is out of the question. Below, the 80,000–81,500 range seems like a cushion, but Glassnode points out that after the 80,000 buy orders were eaten up, defensive orders have retreated to 78,000, and below 80,000 the market is increasingly bearish. Capital is also weak: from October 12 to 16, spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $228 million, with IBIT leading the outflows, and the support buy orders at the 80,000 level are shrinking. On the macro side, a 6.3% rise in PPI has brought back rate hike concerns, so the rebound near 82,000 can only be considered a technical breather.
Conclusion: Now is not the time to attack, but to defend. Repeated failure to hold above 82,000, combined with ETF outflows and macro pressure, makes a firm hold unlikely, and the risk of testing 78,000 is accumulating. Only a volume-driven breakthrough through the dense chip area of 84,000–85,000 can shift the short-term outlook from defense to offense. The most bullish crypto asset surprisingly is HYPE, so why does the price not rise despite so many being bullish?
According to CryptoQuant data, the most bullish crypto asset currently is $HYPE, with bullish deviation about 2.3 standard deviations above analyst sentiment, ranking first among the listed mainstream assets, followed by BNB, $SOL, $BTC, ADA, XRP, ETH, and UNI.
Why is it so bullish?
As a leading Perp DEX, Hyperliquid channels 97-99% of fees into the Assistance Fund to buy back HYPE, totaling over $1.2 billion. Combined with USDC yields, this creates a real business-to-token demand loop, with institutions continuously optimistic.
Why is the sentiment so strong but the price recently weak?
In the past month, HYPE has retraced about 15% from a high of $98 to $79, mainly due to reduced macro risks, platform liquidations, token unlocks, and short-term trading volume fluctuations. The buybacks have not yet fully offset supply pressure.
Market outlook:
HYPE has stable fee buybacks, fundamentals remain intact, and there is no dominant bearish consensus.
Short-term pressure comes from macro factors and unlocks, but if trading volume continues to support buybacks, mid-to-long term it could challenge $100-$120. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ BTC, ETH, and SOL have rebounded synchronously in the past 24 hours, and market sentiment has returned to the greed zone. However, a noteworthy phenomenon is that while the three major mainstream coins have risen, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has decreased by 0.43%. Meanwhile, stablecoin supply continues to contract slightly, BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw net outflows in the previous trading day, and although Solana's on-chain transaction volume has improved, its TVL is still declining. This indicates that the current market is closer to a rotation of funds amid consolidation rather than a confirmed full-scale rally. As the US market reopens, whether institutional funds can keep pace with prices will be an important point to watch next. 📈 Market: BTC rebounds to $82,400, sentiment returns to greed As of about 10:12 HKT on October 19, BTC was quoted at $82,435.72, up 1.0% in 24 hours; ETH was $2,426.13, up 0.9%; SOL was $104.82, up 1.2%. The three major mainstream coins rose synchronously, with SOL's increase slightly higher than BTC and ETH. But CoinGecko data shows the total crypto market capitalization is about $2.82 trillion, down 0.43% in 24 hours, with BTC dominance at 58.8%. This divergence indicates that the price recovery of mainstream assets has not spread to the entire market. While some assets are rising, other coins may still face adjustment pressure. Regarding altcoins, according to CoinMarketCap's top 100 by market capitalization statistics #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $BTC When a token with a market cap of only $15.82 million can achieve a daily increase of 1.19% and a trading volume of $6.59 million, the market is voting with its feet—this is a typical characteristic of highly controlled chips. XSNDK is quoted at $1263.6, with a 24-hour amplitude of less than 4%, yet it contributes 41% turnover rate of the market cap. The price fluctuates between $1290 and $1240, with very thin buy and sell order books; even a slightly large order can move the price by several points.
The smart money signal still shows net short, net positions are zero, and both long and short traders are zero. This is extremely abnormal for micro-cap tokens: usually, such chips are either unilaterally driven up by market makers or sold off by whales. Now even smart money is unwilling to leave traces, indicating that the controlling party is extremely covert, or there is no institutional participation at all, purely retail investors entertaining themselves. Social sentiment is dead silent, both bullish and bearish are zero, heat ranking is absent—even the signal groups are too lazy to mention it.
XSNDK’s data structure is full of contradictions: extremely high coin price paired with extremely low market cap, very high turnover rate paired with very low discussion. This is either a highly concentrated early private placement chip with a very small circulating supply, or a pricing anomaly of some synthetic asset/packaged token. Lacking fundamental support, liquidity depth, and community consensus, under these three deficiencies, the price discovery mechanism of this token is completely invalid. Once retail investors take the position, they face unlimited downside risk and zero liquidity exit dilemma.
Core judgment: micro-cap with high coin price + zero fundamentals + suspected control, the risk-reward ratio is extremely unbalanced, firmly avoid.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus
OKX Outcomes has positioned for the NO direction on Netflix's quarterly earnings report.
I do not deny Netflix's fundamentals: revenue is growing, and the advertising business is continuously expanding, but a strong earnings report does not mean it can exceed the market's already fully priced expectations.
The market's current judgment threshold is whether GAAP EPS can exceed $0.84. Earnings growth is a fact, but whether profitability can meet the market's preset standard is the key to determining the outcome.
The NO contract was priced around $0.36 when established; now YES is quoted at 73 cents, NO at 29 cents, indicating a shift in market sentiment expectations. But it is important to clarify here: the contract prices in prediction markets are just prices formed by traders' games and do not equate to the objective probability of the event actually occurring.$ZEC This is a strong resistance zone during the early-stage downtrend consolidation, and also the position where bulls repeatedly failed to rebound. If the rebound cannot hold here, all rallies are "fake pumps".
Key resistance level: $1,220
Key support level: $1,100
Long-short ratio: Retail investors give up, whales hold firm
Binance retail long-short ratio 0.8169, OKX retail 0.9 (retail bearish).
Whale side: Whale count long-short ratio 0.8359 (bearish), but whale position long-short ratio as high as 1.6046
$BTC $ETH #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Yesterday, I positioned a NO bet on Netflix's quarterly earnings on OKX Outcomes.
I do not deny Netflix's fundamentals: revenue is growing, and the advertising business is continuously expanding, but an outstanding earnings report does not mean it can exceed the market's already fully priced expectations.
The market's current judgment threshold is whether GAAP EPS can exceed $0.84. Earnings growth is a fact, but whether profitability can meet the market's preset standard is the key to the outcome.
When building the position, the NO price was about $0.36; now YES is quoted at 73 cents, NO at 29 cents, indicating a shift in market sentiment. But it is important to clarify here: the contract price in the prediction market is just a price formed by traders' games and does not equate to the objective probability of the event actually occurring.Midline Intelligence Brother guides you to watch BTC.
This potential challenge is indeed significant, with dual pressure from macro and capital aspects. The US spot $BTC ETF saw a single-day outflow of 82.39 million, 228 million for the week, and a massive withdrawal of 907 million in October, with Belayek IBIT accounting for the majority. Combined with CPI and PPI both exceeding expectations, US Treasury yields approaching a 24-year high, institutions are selling at the highest level since the bear market bottom, and hedge funds are cutting BTC as a risk asset.
Alternative risks are also fermenting: nine major crypto organizations have formed a "Quantum Alliance," warning that 30% of the supply (6.04 million coins) faces quantum risk. Google's Willow reducing error rates by 40 times adds uncertainty. Although this is a long-term narrative, it intensifies short-term sensitive panic.
From the market perspective, BTC is stuck at 81,000, the "Brother 800 baseline," repeatedly tugged back and forth, with the 80,000 level seeing intense long-short battles. ETH is linked, holding at 2,400, and ZEC shows high volatility and anomalies. With continuous institutional outflows, whether BTC can stabilize depends on buy orders at 80,000 and ETF inflows. Weekend liquidity is thin, making it easy for spikes and shakeouts.
Strategy: Strictly prohibit high leverage (such as 100x full position), use light positions with low leverage (<5x), and strictly apply take-profit and stop-loss. With macro conditions unclear, survival is the priority; wait for interest rate decisions and capital flow signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ETH was just liquidated this morning, and then came back with a 25x full position charge in the evening.
Last night it was just taken away, then recharged and killed back in the evening, directly going 25x full long, with a position size reaching $4.4 million.
Opening average price was 2398, liquidation price 2346, only about 2% apart. A small short-term spike can directly take it away.
The account's cumulative loss has nearly reached $37 million. This kind of execution and gambling spirit is indeed not something ordinary people can match.
But the problem with high leverage is not the direction, but the tolerance for error. 25x means that as long as the price moves slightly in the opposite direction, the position will be forcibly liquidated; even if the market later moves correctly, you might collapse before dawn.
This kind of trade can be seen as an emotional indicator: if a whale dares to bet like this, it shows that bullish sentiment is not completely dead; but the more extreme the position, the more it indicates the market has not truly stabilized.
Ordinary people should not imitate this kind of play. You can observe spot trading, but don't risk your life betting on a single spike in contracts.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 No need to guess the direction this week, just look at the calendar: On October 21, SOL will launch Alpenglow. But the real tone is set on October 28 with a 64% probability of a FOMC rate hike.
$BTC has only one thing this week: hold 80,000 and wait for the FOMC. The upper resistance at 84,000 was not broken last week, and the lower support at 80,000 has been tested twice and held. The middle is a vacuum zone: ETF outflows last week were 228 million, no new narrative, and the 64% rate hike probability is weighing down. I judge it will grind between 80,000 and 84,000.
$ETH is the only one among the three with no events this week. No upgrades, no ETF inflows, and 320 million was withdrawn this week, so its movement is entirely decided by BTC. 2,313 was last week's low and is a key level this week; if broken, look directly to 2,250. Those wanting to go long should wait for it to drop into discount territory; don't buy halfway up.
$SOL is the only one with real catalysts: on October 21, Alpenglow will launch on mainnet, confirming a reduction from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. But remember two points: before the upgrade, it’s easy to hype early; after the upgrade, it’s selling the fact; on that day, on-chain TPS will drop sharply due to a change in accounting standards, not because the network is broken, so don’t be misled by screenshots. 100 is the bottom line.
This week's strategy: hold BTC, wait for ETH to drop, and bet on SOL on 10/21, but don’t bet past 10/22. After KORU was halved, RSI is oversold, but the funding rate annualized at 141% shows a crowded long position, so don't rush to bottom fish.
KORU is indeed oversold, and the Korean stock market also had a V-shaped rebound today, but three major risks must be clearly understood: First, the funding rate annualized at 141% indicates extreme long crowding, which historically often precedes a long squeeze rather than a bottom; Second, the 3x leveraged ETF has long-term decay, so even if the Korean stock market returns to its original point, it won't for this ETF; Third, Korea's deleveraging is not over yet, and today's move looks more like a technical correction rather than a reversal. Strategy: Do not chase longs or rush to bottom fish.
For holders, stop loss at 9.6, reduce positions on rebound between 12-12.5; for those without positions, wait for a stable break above 11.5 to go long with a target of 13, or short if it breaks below 9.8 with a target of 8.5-9. A 20% move in a day for a 3x leveraged ETF is normal, so keep positions light Solstice tokenizes long-term equity in wafer fabs, with holders receiving asset rent quarterly. Logically, it resembles a wafer fab REIT in the real world, where cash flow should be decoupled from spot chip prices. But this time it fell below 0.05 along with the storage manufacturing sector, indicating the market is starting to reassess the rent assumptions of the underlying assets: new capacity in China is suppressing manufacturing profit margins. Although long-term leases are locked in, the market worries about rent negotiations lowering upon renewal. At the 0.04769 level, the asset logic remains intact, but pricing has shifted from "contractual cash flow" to "whether the rent can be maintained," which is the biggest difference from the previous rise. $BTC 81471, up 0.15 points, the most stable in the market 📈 SLX and xMU are both retreating, BTC can still hold at 81471, with funds converging towards the largest consensus. The shallow drop above 81000 indicates long-term chips are locked, which is completely different from the pricing logic of small assets. $xMU 862.73, down 1.40 points 🏭 Micron retreated from 913 to 862, the storage sector's overall decline is deeper than the broader market. Samsung's Q3 profit is expected to increase nearly 8 times, with the full financial report soon to be released. The industry cycle is warming up, but short-term sentiment is suppressed by Chinese capacity, with 862 first digesting this wave. This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. #Samsung's Q3 profit expected to increase nearly 8 times, full financial report soon to be released What the kitchen fears most is not the fire getting too high, but someone holding a menu that hasn't even been put on the stove yet, boldly announcing to all the customers that tonight's main dish is changing. What Dan Levy from Barclays is presenting now is this raw dough of an "all-stock swap"—SpaceX exchanging about 0.7 shares for 1 Tesla share. It sounds like the recipe ratio of old dough to new dough, but the dough hasn't been kneaded, the oven hasn't been preheated, and the purchase order hasn't even been signed. No one has formally negotiated, the board hasn't made a move, and the regulators haven't even submitted the health inspection forms. This isn't a dish; it's a plating sketch drawn on a napkin.
The 0.7 to 1 ratio is the pinch of salt the kitchen is most sensitive about. Add a bit more, and Tesla's longtime customers feel their portion is being cut thin; add less, and SpaceX's master chefs feel their broth is being watered down. And Elon Musk holds about 37% of the equity and 56% of the voting rights—this is like having only one person in the entire kitchen wielding the knife and controlling the fire, while everyone else just passes plates. Minority shareholders' rights? They're like radish flowers sliced thinly for plating—pretty, but not filling.
The real aroma lies in synergy: AI is the stove, robots are the knife skills, energy is the heat control, and aerospace is the blazing fire that keeps getting stronger. Put these four together theoretically, and you can make a full banquet. But valuation is the first blanching step, regulatory review is the fire safety and health certificates—missing one, and the door won't even open. The so-called "before December 6" or "within 6 to 12 months" is just a tasting schedule; whether the guests can wait is another matter.
Now look at $xBMNR, this side dish of linkage. The main dish hasn't been served yet, but the seasoning is already heating up—this is the typical "smells good, burns the mouth" scenario. The space concept is a top-tier spice; a little enhances the flavor, too much makes the whole pot bitter. The real skill is mainstream coins holding down the pot as the main dish, altcoins just shaking a bit before serving, and leveraged contracts? Those are the super spicy chili peppers—just a tiny bit perks you up, half a spoonful burns through your guts, and the next day you can't even stand by the stove.
I've seen too many apprentices who turn on the high heat before the menu is set, and end up serving a burnt pot. This all-stock swap recipe essentially mixes two pots of soup into one; writing the ratio on paper is easy, but blending the heat together is hard. Concentrating equity in one person's hands means the entire kitchen's seasoning power belongs to one person— the flavor might be stunning, but if a mistake happens, no one else dares to lift the lid. #spacextesladealscenario The era of "money not being worth money" has temporarily ended.
This is unfavorable for gold, unfavorable for Bitcoin, and unfavorable for all non-yielding assets.
But look at it from another perspective.
When the risk-free return is 5%, the market is still willing to price Bitcoin at 80,000.
What if one day, the US Treasury yield falls back to 3%?
The current decline is making room for the rise on that day.
What you're waiting for is not Bitcoin to rise,
You're waiting for money to become cheap again. Under the surgical light, I laid Tesla's deal terms on the perfusion table: this is not ordinary ventricular fibrillation, this is an aortic dissection. Barclays' all-stock proposal is trying to put Musk on extracorporeal circulation.
Preoperative assessment starts with anatomy: 0.7 shares of Space Exploration Technologies for 1 share of Tesla, Musk holds about 37% equity but controls 56% voting rights—this is not a simple vascular anastomosis, it's sewing the aortic valve and pulmonary valve into the same artificial vessel. Hemodynamically it seems coordinated, but in fact the right heart load suddenly increases. The synergy of AI, robotics, energy, and space is like collateral circulation, looking good on angiography, but once perfusion pressure drops, the myocardium is the first to become ischemic.
The price crash is just the monitor alarm, not the lesion. The real lesions are on three levels: valuation is the ejection fraction on echocardiography, minority shareholder equity is the coronary collateral, regulatory review is immune rejection. An all-stock deal doesn’t draw blood but dilutes myocardial perfusion; the 0.7 exchange ratio is like valve orifice area, a 0.1 difference doubles the transvalvular pressure gradient. Concentrating voting rights to 56% is like pinning the sinoatrial node to one person, pacing rhythm by him, with no backup pacemaker if atrioventricular block occurs. No formal negotiations, no board resolutions, no regulatory filings—this script is still in preoperative talks, not even an informed consent signed.
$xMETA’s linkage is more like a sympathetic storm: the mapped target first shows tachycardia, then blood pressure drift. Don’t mistake pseudo-errors on the monitor for lesions. What matters are the exchange ratio, voting structure, minority shareholder protections, and regulatory path—if any of these four vessels are blocked, the so-called synergy turns into myocardial infarction. Intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography doesn’t lie: left ventricular ejection fraction doesn’t improve, transvalvular pressure gradient doesn’t decrease, any “ecological closed loop” is just a beautiful waveform on extracorporeal circulation.
My judgment is cold: this is not a merger, it’s a matching before a living heart transplant; if matching fails, any blood flow reconstruction is just pseudo-stability under extracorporeal circulation. #spacextesladealscenario ETH short sellers from last night were carried away this morning
In the past 24 hours, about 288 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for 186 million, or 64.8%; about 93,000 people were liquidated, mostly longs who tried to catch the bottom halfway up the slope.
But the morning's counterattack was even fiercer: in the last hour, short liquidations reached 22.07 million, accounting for 98%; in 4 hours, short liquidations hit 55.11 million, three times that of longs. The previous drop suppressed the longs, but when the rebound pulled up, those chasing shorts didn’t even have time to react. The pace switched extremely fast, the victims changed, but the attitude remained: defiant.
The bloodiest trade for ETH
A certain address shorted 13,830 ETH at 2366 last night at 11 PM, with a position of about 32.72 million USD; at 7:30 AM this morning, the price rebounded to 2409, and 2,765 ETH were forcibly liquidated, instantly vaporizing 6.66 million USD. The remaining 11,061 ETH short position liquidation price is 2419, only 9 dollars away from the current price.
Just 9 dollars difference, a tiny spike could wipe out a short position worth tens of millions. ETH closed in a narrow range of 2336–2343 in the short term, with shrinking volume, a sell wall pressing down, and the price barely moving, but leveraged positions have already been strangled in the shadows. On the surface, it’s sideways trading, but underneath is all blood.
In this market, don’t rush to chase shorts, nor blindly catch the bottom; heavy positions and loose stop losses are the easiest to be carried away by rebound spikes.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 BTC, as the anchor coin of the market, was the first to stabilize the range and hold the key support; ETH followed closely with resilience, and the market slowly showed signs of stabilization; SOL, as the high Beta leader, often has stronger upward momentum than BTC during market rallies, with SOL's gains in August significantly outpacing BTC and ETH. This round is also a script of macro expectations combined with capital rotation. Once BTC breaks through key resistance upward, it easily triggers concentrated short liquidations, forming a positive feedback loop of short squeezes driving the price up. The August rally was characterized by crowded shorts and a chain reaction of short liquidations after the breakout, pushing the market rapidly higher. However, it is important to note that history does not simply repeat itself. The core driver of the August rally was the liquidity boost from U.S. Treasury bonds, and the driving logic this round is not entirely the same. Even if the pattern looks similar, it cannot be directly assumed that the rally will be replicated. The focus should be on observing the spot buying relay and whether SOL can develop an independently strong trend to confirm the sustainability of this rebound. #US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? #Institutional funds weaken, who will see the first inflow, BTC or ETH?
Is Bitcoin faking a fall again? It plunged desperately over the weekend, $BTC hit a low just above 80,000 last night, then this morning a big bullish candle V-shaped back, pulling back above 82,400 as if nothing happened. But whether this rebound is "fragile" or "solid" depends on the subsequent volume.
From the chart, the 15-minute level did break through, but the trading volume didn’t keep up, more like a "false breakout" from short covering rather than a genuine strong push from the bulls. Market sentiment is very delicate now; macro-wise, the Fed’s rate hike expectations haven’t fully faded, and the 5.31% US Treasury yield hangs like a sword overhead, ready to pressure risk assets at any time.
Looking at altcoins, although some small coins like Celestia can jump a bit, overall liquidity is still far from sufficient. The order book depth for Bitcoin and Ethereum has recovered, but altcoins remain a "dead pool," with funds clearly concentrating on mainstream coins. What does this mean?
It means if you chase those "seemingly cheap" altcoins, you’re likely to get trapped in a "liquidity trap." Right now, existing funds are holding on stubbornly; there’s no sign yet of a broad bull market capital base.
Don’t get carried away by Monday’s bullish candle. Around 82,000 USD, you can reduce positions or take some profits first, then consider adding back after a pullback confirms support. If it really breaks below 80,600, be cautious—it could trigger another deep correction. As for altcoins, unless you have insider info or can monitor the market for short-term trades, better avoid them. $BTC A $6 billion financing is a pawn whose cost can only be clearly seen by the 40th move — yet the spectators are still counting the soldiers in the first move.
I've played chess for decades, and what I fear most is never a strong opponent, but my own pawn structure that looks solid but actually leaks air in every square. This cutting-edge model lab started the game beautifully: quarterly revenue of 16.8 billion, a 45% quarter-on-quarter increase, and adjusted profits still on the positive side. In a scenario burning computing power, this is equivalent to voluntarily giving up the center at the start in exchange for two flank pawns. But a grandmaster doesn't look at how pretty the flank pawns are; they look at whether the diagonal behind them can be defended. To raise 60 billion for the computing cluster, one fund will take 9 billion with a 10% coupon — what does a 10% cost of capital mean? It means you voluntarily hand over the exchange rights in the midgame, and from then on, every move you make gifts your opponent half a piece.
The valuation was cut from 2 trillion to 1.5 trillion; this is not emotion, it's the referee revising the position evaluation. The same pieces, the same pawn structure, but the evaluation function has changed. Experienced players know: losing 50 points in evaluation doesn't seem much, but it means every subsequent move requires calculating three more layers, and the margin for error is gone.
Can the computing power investment be sustained by revenue and cash flow? This question itself is like asking "Can my central pawn hold until the endgame?" The answer is never in the pawns, but in the coordination of the pieces. No matter how steep the revenue curve is, if the cash flow fulcrum arrives two moves late, the entire offensive line is immediately counter-controlled.
As for the safety regulation draft submitted to legislators, and the auditor's demand for governance before listing — don't treat these as noise; they are the rule committee outside the board changing the game rules. Smart players don't wait for the referee's whistle; they first complete castling and hide the king in the corner. Whoever sets the governance structure right first takes the initiative; whoever waits to explain on listing day is forced to make moves without options in the endgame.
What really made me stop is another signal: both the cost of capital and listing expectations are being downgraded simultaneously. These two rarely happen together unless someone is calculating — this game might not reach the endgame shape they planned. Losing in the opening is not fatal, losing in the midgame is not fatal, the worst is thinking you're playing the midgame while your opponent has already dragged you into the endgame they prepared.
600 billion is not a chip, it's the number of moves. What is bought is time, and whoever controls the time decides on which move this game ends. #anthropic60bfinancing$BTC weekly bottom, will it appear before the November 3 midterm elections?
Well-known trader Killa mentioned an interesting historical pattern: in 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC's phase bottoms all occurred close to the midterm election dates.
Two possible paths
- Bottom first then rebound: forming a phase bottom around the election, then testing $80,000, even pushing to $95,000
- Rally first then fall back: first rebound to $94,000–$95,000, then face selling pressure after the election
Historical data shows that in midterm election years, BTC's average drop is about 56%, but the average rebound in the 12 months after the election is about 54%. However, this cycle has spot ETFs and institutional funds supporting the bottom, so it may not fully replicate the past.
My thoughts
The key is not to bet on whether it will rise before the election or fall after, but to see which structure BTC forms first: if it bottoms early, sentiment may reverse; if it rallies then weakens, be cautious of a risk-off market.
At this kind of juncture, spot base positions can be observed, but avoid heavy contract bets on direction. Brothers, do you think the bottom will come early this time, or will the real test come after the election?
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 A hole has been chiseled in the load-bearing wall of sanctions, but the soil beneath the foundation is being loosened by artillery fire.
The waiver issued by the White House on October 16, in my eyes, is just a stamped planning permit. A permit does not equal topping out, let alone delivery. What truly determines whether a building can stand is never the signature on the drawing, but whether the materials arrive in sequence—diesel contracts signed, but the goods are still in transit, delivery milestones hanging in the air. This is the most critical exposure on the construction site: processes waiting for materials, tower cranes idling, and every day of delay in the schedule is a real cost accrual.
Ukraine's continuous strikes on refining facilities are dynamic loads. We designed reinforcement for static conditions, but in reality, hammer blows keep hitting the same beam. The redundancy of such a precise structure as refining capacity is extremely low; if a set of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is interrupted, it’s not just a matter of changing a light bulb—it requires repressurizing, re-inspecting, and re-approving the entire pipeline segment. The metrics for production loss are chaotic, equivalent to the contractor being unable to report real progress, the supervisor lacking actual measurement data, and any cost assumptions being calculated with unset concrete strength.
Looking at the logistics radius again: easing sanctions does not mean shortening transport distances. Shipowners’ insurance rates, detour routes, and storage fees at transfer nodes are all hidden costs that ultimately get factored into the landed price. I have worked on cross-sea projects; material unit price is never the fatal factor, the fatal factor is whether it can arrive in sequence and be poured continuously. A single supply break leaves a cold joint there.
The International Energy Agency extends the shortage cycle to 2027, which is no longer a quarterly schedule deviation but a large-scale project spanning years. Year-spanning projects fear two things most: design changes and capital cost drift, and now both are fully present. Trump said oil prices will come down soon; that was the client’s speech at the groundbreaking ceremony, not a structural calculation report.
$xMU-type assets are essentially presale certificates for this structure that has not yet topped out. Buyers are not buying concrete; they are buying renderings. No matter how stunning the renderings are, they cannot change one ironclad rule—the seismic rating of this building is determined by the weakest column, not by the brightest rendering.
Permit signed, materials not on site, pile foundation under bombardment—this kind of construction organization plan, I only mark in red on the drawings. #usrussiasanctionswaiverLast Friday, the ETF had a net redemption of 152 million, yet this morning 82,400 still holds, with all the top sellers being short stop-losses 😅
Of this 152 million, BTC was redeemed for 82.4 million, issued by BlackRock and Fidelity; ETH redeemed 69.7 million, all from BlackRock alone. Big money off-exchange didn't return over the weekend.
Across the entire network, 313 million was liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 60%; in the last hour, 29.72 million was liquidated, with shorts accounting for 96%. The price did rise, but the shorts kept the momentum going.
BTC, ETH, and SOL are all showing red today, with SOL positions increased the most aggressively. ETH had the highest liquidation in 24 hours at 94.09 million, BTC touched 82,405, and trading volume nearly doubled.
The gainers and losers are at extremes: some up nearly 40%, others down 30%, with the mainstream all grinding within 1%. Fear and greed index at 60, lukewarm and steady 😐
There are quite a few macro news events today, all queued up for release: this morning's Q3 GDP and Canada's new office press conference, the Financial Street Forum opening, tomorrow's LPR, and tonight's Canadian CPI. So all these need attention to prevent any sudden market moves causing sharp spikes or drops.
My operational suggestions for reference:
① ETF net redemption combined with liquidation continuation means the rebound is borrowed strength; don't chase longs before the news releases;
② ETH has the most liquidations but the least gains, with the highest fee rate among the three coins at 0.0091%; shorts are paying fees and getting hit, longs shouldn't rush to buy;
③ The leaderboard shows extremes on both ends and mainstream sideways movement, a typical stock game; wait for the news to settle before choosing a side.
Various news are queued for release; although prices have risen, I choose to hold fire and keep bullets ready for when the shoe drops. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
Tomorrow in the South Korean stock market, don't rush to bottom-fish; first, see which way these two stocks are heading.
Conclusion first: In the short term, I see a volatile rebound, but I dare not heavily bet on a "reversal." Hynix's ADR fell 6.58% last Friday, KOSPI200 night futures crashed 3.5% accordingly, so Korean stocks will definitely have to swallow this panic at Monday's open. But note, Korean stocks already rebounded once during the day last Friday, and foreign investors bought back over 300 billion KRW, indicating some think the drop was overdone.
Regarding Hynix, the news is mixed. On the positive side, AMD's Su confirmed that Hynix will supply HBM4, so Samsung won't have it all to themselves. On the negative side, there are signs of delays in HBM4 equipment orders, and the market worries about technical bottlenecks or Hynix deliberately limiting capacity to protect ordinary DRAM profits. I scanned community discussions; panic sellers and the "200,000 Nix" die-hard bulls are still arguing, so sentiment hasn't fully cooled.
I haven't seen any clear contract anomalies related to Hynix in on-chain pre-pricing, so I won't speculate. Direction-wise, my view is: a low open tomorrow is highly probable, but whether it can be pulled back depends on whether foreign investors continue buying or selling in the first half hour after the open. If the low open is quickly bought back, expect a short-term rebound recovery; if it drifts down without volume after the low open, then the correction isn't over.#ETF and Whale Capital Divergence, Can BTC Hold $80,000?
The anticipated bull market hasn't arrived; BTC is currently around $81,300–$81,600. Recently, it has repeatedly tested the $80,000–$81,500 range and rebounded. So far this month, it has declined about 2%, clearly lagging behind the historical "Uptober" trend.
October has seen significant net outflows overall. Net outflows this month are approximately $500–540 million, with large withdrawals concentrated on October 7 (about $485–487 million), October 8, and October 14 trading days; occasional small inflows occurred in between. This sharply contrasts with the strong inflows in September. The comprehensive cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is around $81,500. After multiple price dips, it has reclaimed this level, making it an important "magnet" zone.
Analysts from CryptoQuant and other institutions also point out that whales shifting from selling to buying is a common early bull market characteristic. There is also pressure from net inflows to exchanges, but the overall narrative leans toward large holders accumulating at low levels.
The ETF cost basis and whale accumulation provide clear support logic, with prices repeatedly validating the effectiveness of this area; however, ongoing ETF net outflows plus macro pressure from hot CPI are the main risks. If outflows slow or turn positive, combined with continued on-chain accumulation, it will be easier to test $84k upwards; conversely, a decisive break below $80k could open the way down to $78k or even lower.
Hang in there, brothers, the crypto winter hasn't truly arrived yet.🐻
$BTC $XAG This position isn't large, showing a floating loss on the books, but the outlook remains bullish.
The small position size isn't due to lack of confidence; it's just that this level only warrants this much exposure. It has dropped from 120 at the start of the year to the 50s, halving in value, but a halving isn't a buying reason—falling by half can still lead to another half drop.
There are three bullish factors, all unrelated to timing. Global silver has been in shortage for six consecutive years, and the deficit is still expanding this year; over 70% of silver is a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, so mines won't increase output just because silver prices rise—supply is rigid; the spot market with immediate delivery has always been limited, so when funds concentrate, prices are easily pushed up, as seen in the parabolic move at the start of the year.
The bearish reasons are also strong. Photovoltaic silver consumption is decreasing, down 20% this year, possibly more in China; SHFE inventory has hit a near one-year high; real interest rates remain elevated, and the probability of a rate hike in December hasn't declined. These three pressures keep prices grinding.
The nature of this position was clear from the start: it's a bet on the deficit and supply rigidity, not a bet on a price rise this month. Today's spike and pullback caused losses in position, not in logic.
To admit being wrong, watch for two things: prices effectively breaking below the 56 area, or photovoltaic silver reduction continuing beyond expectations and inventories continuing to hit new highs. If either occurs, the deficit story needs to be recalculated.
Until then, hold this position; no need to rush to add or cut. Core official (Core DAO) has proactively withdrawn its own validator nodes, which can be interpreted in two completely different ways depending on whether it is a voluntary offline exit from the validator set or just a temporary shutdown. 1. The most ideal interpretation: Decentralization (positive narrative) The Core network has only 16 active validator nodes in total. - The foundation voluntarily withdraws its official validator nodes it operates, no longer occupying validator seats, handing block production rights over to community third-party validators. - This means the project team no longer controls the network, weakening the foundation's grip on the chain, aligning with the goal of decentralization for public blockchains. - This is a common operation in the later stages of many public chains and does not inherently mean the chain is abandoning the project. But here is a key point: Although the official nodes exit, if a large amount of staked delegation remains concentrated in the hands of a few top validators, the network remains highly centralized, only shifting control from the project team to a few large holders. 2. Negative signals to watch out for (market's main concern) If the core official validator nodes suddenly exit without prior notice, the market generally interprets it as the following issues. 1. Project team operations shrinking, budget cuts Running validator nodes requires ongoing server and operational manpower costs. - With the token price persistently low and ecosystem revenue below expectations, the team reduces expenses and no longer bears the cost of validator nodes. - This indicates the project team is unwilling to continue investing in maintaining the chain, a fundamental weakening signal. 2. Lack of team confidence Proj周末的下跌并未浇灭多头的热情，反而激出一场近乎荒诞的加仓潮。$DOGE 现价0.0778，多空比被推高到3.66，持仓量不降反升——散户不是在逃，而是在疯狂抄底。日线却依然无声阴跌，这种“越跌越买”的倔强，恰恰是最危险的信号：只要价格轻微跌破0.075，连环清算的惨烈程度将难以形容。 把镜头拉远，这不是单一币种的孤例，而是一场全市场的多头陷阱。$PEPE 现价0.000003839，多空比同样离谱地达到3.16，资金费率时不时翻负——散户不仅被套，还要倒贴钱求庄家别再砸。买盘毫无持续性，全靠信念硬撑。当持有成本变成负值，所谓“信仰”不过是给对手方送弹药。 最耐人寻味的是 $DNA。现价0.2615，我先前查资金费率历史时误以为是负值，切到实时行情才确认当前费率为正0.0050%，而基差仍为负、持仓量骤增。这意味着多头正在付钱给空头，只为咬牙硬扛。加上多空比数据当前缺失（高度控盘），此时进场无异于主动当靶子。这个细节比价格本身更能说明问题：当多头愿意付费持仓，说明他们已被困住，而非掌握主动。 我的判断很直接：这是一场针对多头的围猎。散户极度拥挤，做市方顺势清洗仓位，此刻空手接白刃，纯粹是$ETH 2428 Liquidity Hunt: Long-term Withdrawal of 5.3 Billion, The Truth Behind the Short-term Short Squeeze
In 15 days, funds clearly net outflow of 5.3 billion, long-term is exiting, so why did the short-term suddenly surge, forcing a 30 million giant whale's short position to be liquidated just 9 dollars away?
See through the underlying logic: The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 19%, the market is fully crowded on the short side. The main force doesn't need to pull back to a high level, just use a small amount of short-term funds (75% inflow) to push past the liquidation line triggering a chain of short covering. Short covering means buying, so the price naturally soars. The 1-hour liquidation of 12.79 million all short positions is ironclad evidence.
But can this continue? Long-term funds are still withdrawing. The main force is most likely "squeezing short liquidity upwards," and after the shorts are fully liquidated, they may reverse and dump the market at any time.
Scenario analysis and response (20% position):
Scenario 1 (True Short Squeeze): If it strongly holds above 2430, the shorts above will be trampled. Aggressive traders lightly buy on a pullback to 2405, target 2480, stop loss 2390.
Scenario 2 (Bull Trap to Kill Bulls): If it spikes to 2430 then quickly falls below 2400, it indicates the short squeeze is over and the main force reverses. Conservative traders wait for confirmation below 2400 then follow the trend to short, target 2350. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
With Disney+’s low-cost ad-supported subscriptions continuously siphoning off the lower-tier market, and Amazon Prime Video leveraging its e-commerce membership bundling ecosystem advantage to nibble away at long-form video watch time, if Netflix cannot produce unexpected signals such as breakout hit series that cross audience boundaries to drive membership payment surges, or newly expanded gaming business achieving scaled revenue, it will be difficult to reignite capital market enthusiasm for buying, relying solely on maintaining its existing profit base.以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 提出了一个引人注目的观点，解释为何人工智能（AI）可能将比特币矿工挤出稀缺计算资源的竞争。Buterin 指出，比特币挖矿的成本大约一半来自专用硬件（ASIC），一半来自电力；而 AI 推理则几乎完全依赖硬件。他认为，这种结构性差异可能使计算经济的天平向 AI 倾斜，远离工作量证明挖矿。 计算经济学：挖矿与推理的对比 比特币挖矿是一个能源密集型过程，其盈利能力取决于电力成本与区块奖励的相对关系。矿工不断升级到更高效的 ASIC，但电力仍然是主要的运营支出。相比之下，AI 推理——即运行已训练模型以生成输出的过程——受硬件约束更大。电力成本在总成本中所占比例较小，而 GPU 的前期资本支出和设备折旧则主导了成本方程。 Buterin 的观察意味着，随着 AI 计算需求激增，原本可能投入挖矿的资本和基础设施可能被重新导向 AI。这一转变在市场上已经显现：多家比特币矿业公司已开始将设施重新用于 AI 和高性能计算（HPC）工作负载，被更高的利润率和更稳定的收入流所吸引。 对比特币安全性和去中心化的影响 如果 AI 吸收全球计算和能源资源中越来This morning, the crypto market wasn't a “sideways diary,” but more like after the macro data hit, the market pretends nothing happened, yet leverage is still trembling. BTC retraced to 82,000, not a bull retracement, but a short covering. BTC pulled back from 79,694 to above 82,000, ETH followed back to around 2,450. It looks like a recovery, but it's actually short covering after PPI panic, not spot money rushing in fully loaded. Derivatives open interest exceeds 400 billion USD, 24h trading volume surged nearly 30%, and 840 million in long liquidations over 30 days — this market isn’t without volatility, it’s just hiding the volatility inside leverage. BTC holds the gate, ETH plays the sidekick, SOL is tougher than expected - BTC: 82,000 is the psychological line, 83,000 is resistance, if 79,700 breaks, it will wash out again - ETH: no own story, supported by L2/staking expectations, if 2,450 doesn’t hold, it’s done - SOL: small strength near 105, trading volume and ecosystem activity still ongoing - BNB: playing dead around 730, the “stability” of exchange tokens is a persona itself - XRP: 1.33–1.34 sideways like a compliance concept specimen ZEC, HYPE and other “non-consensus coins” are stealing the show ZEC surged to around 1,240 (+7%+), HYPE is also in the green — when BTC is still, funds go to explore privacy coins, platform tokens, and fringe alpha beyond old memes. But don’t get carried away: this rotation usuallyCurrent Status of Colend (Core Chain Lending Protocol) 1. The contract has not been shut down; the on-chain contract still exists, and the frontend website is still accessible, but the business is basically "effectively frozen," with activity almost at zero. - In March 2026, a massive chain liquidation was triggered by a sharp drop in the CORE token price, severely damaging the entire protocol. Although the official statement says the protocol code itself was not hacked and the issue was caused by market leverage liquidations with no bad debt, liquidity was severely destroyed. - The current TVL is only a few million USD, with the vast majority of collateral assets being CORE/stCORE; liquidity for stablecoins and BTC-type assets is almost depleted. - Almost no assets can be borrowed: even if collateral is deposited, the lending pool has no available liquidity; ordinary users can mainly only make deposits, and the lending function is basically unusable. 2. Status of the CLND Token - The CLND token is still listed on exchanges, but trading volume is extremely low, depth is poor, and the price has dropped drastically compared to its peak. - Colend's official social updates have significantly decreased in frequency, and large-scale incentive activities have ceased. 3. Key Reminders for Existing Users - The contract is not frozen; you can withdraw your deposited collateral assets by manually redeeming and withdrawing through the app; do not continue to deposit new funds. - The protocol has experienced extreme liquidation events, and the collateral is the highly volatile CORE token, carrying very high leverage risk. Simple Summary ✅ The contract has not been abandoned or closed on the technical level; it is still accessible and assets can be withdrawn ❌The US stock market is once again in turmoil, with the Nasdaq plunging 2.15%. But interestingly, BTC did not follow the decline; instead, it rose back above 82,000. The market has already given the answer on who the funds are choosing. Let's first look at the US stock side. Among the seven tech giants, six fell and one rose, with Meta dropping 3.72%. The worst hit was the AI infrastructure sector: CoreWeave plummeted nearly 12%, and AMD fell nearly 10%. The AI hardware and cloud infrastructure sectors are almost out of breath. Why is this happening? Just look at the news. Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke, saying the US economy is resilient and AI investment is supporting demand. But he shifted tone, saying that long-term productivity gains do not mean short-term rate cuts, and companies must withstand the test of financing costs. In plain terms, don't expect me to ease monetary policy soon; you have to endure the high interest rates yourselves. The real thunder is on the AI financing side. Some CoreWeave bonds yield over 15%. What does this mean? It means the market is punishing these cash-burning AI companies with extremely high interest rates. Institutions worry about how your project returns, equipment depreciation, and debt maturities will match up. When financing pressure rises, tech stocks naturally collapse. Additionally, crude oil remains high, with Brent at $108 this morning. Middle East supply risks have not been resolved, so inflation cannot be brought down, which is another looming threat. Now back to our BTC. Despite the Nasdaq's plunge, BTC not only held steady but rose slightly. Although the total crypto market cap dropped 2.83%, this was mainly due to altcoins bleeding out, with money flowing into B Core DAO's business on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The truth about $CORE The token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. The listed product is the BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) from third-party issuer Valour (a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies), with underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify it as "Core debuting on the London Stock Exchange," which is promotional tactics and not CORE token trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: ETP (exchange-traded product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset, and Bitcoin entering the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business Logic - Valour holds real BTC, with institutions cold storage and custody; - Entrust BTC to Core network validators for staking to generate staking rewards (nominal annualized rate of about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value; investors buying this LME stock indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Opened to professional investors in September 2025; Obtained FCA license in January 2026, opening trading to ordinary UK retail investors. 3. Core plays a role here: underlying technology service provider - providing Satoshi-PThe market has been falling recently, and many people have chosen extremely low positions, thinking it has bottomed out. I actually think so too, but this wave of decline, due to two consecutive CPI negative news and the market's panic index, makes betting on the market to go up at this point not a very good choice. Today's rebound seems to have seen a bit of hope, but the trend hasn't been broken; it looks more like a small rebound after an oversell, and there is no news support.
Those with heavy positions in this rebound should also consider carefully. I think it's best to short on rallies and not go against the trend. The specific direction still needs to be observed for two more days, and at the latest, wait until the market opens to see the feedback on $ over the weekend. #芯片股八连跌后反弹，AI交易能否修复？ ETH没有统一的“鲸鱼标准”，不同平台门槛不一样，和BTC（≥1000 BTC）口径区分开： 圈内最常用两套划分（Santiment / Glassnode） 1. 超级巨鲸：≥100,000 ETH 地址数量很少，几十到六十多个。 ⚠️ 这里面大头是：信标链质押合约、交易所托管钱包、ETF托管地址，真正个人大户极少。 2. 标准巨鲸：≥10,000 ETH（大家盯得最多一档） 大概 800～1100 个地址，这一档才是平时说的、会主动买卖影响行情的巨鲸，包含基金、大户、机构自托管钱包。 3. 大户/鲨鱼档：≥1,000 ETH 这个口径数量就多很多，几千个地址，很多是中型基金、质押服务商、DeFi国库。 最重要的误区（和BTC一样） 地址 ≠ 真实独立的人 - 信标链存款合约、Lido、Coinbase质押池、各大交易所冷钱包，全部会被统计进巨鲸地址； - 一个大户可以拆分几十个钱包；一个钱包里面是几万散户的钱（托管）。 所以链上只能数钱包地址，没法精确算出真实有多少个独立“人”是鲸鱼 。 简单对比你刚才问的BTC - BTC巨鲸标准：≥1000 BTC，CORE is a small-cap altcoin without an industry-standard whale threshold (unlike BTC which is fixed at ≥1000 BTC, or ETH commonly at ≥10000 ETH). Generally, within the community, there are two commonly used thresholds for tracking CORE whales (Nansen / Lookonchain): 1. CORE Mega Whales (capable of impacting the market): ≥1,000,000 CORE 2. Large holders/Shark tier: 100,000 to 1,000,000 CORE Core characteristics (the biggest difference from BTC and ETH) 1. Extremely high concentration of holdings The top wallets include: Core DAO treasury, team/investor lockup contracts, staking contracts, and exchange cold wallets. The top 10 addresses hold a very high proportion of the circulating supply, which is the fundamental reason why CORE’s volatility is much greater than BTC/ETH. 2. No fixed official number - The ≥1,000,000 CORE tier: the real-time number of addresses is usually in the dozens (dynamic, changing with unlocking, staking, and transfers) - The ≥100,000 CORE (large holders): a few hundred addresses Many addresses are staking contracts, foundation treasury, or exchange reserves, not individual large holders. The number of independent mega whales who can freely sell and actively trade is much smaller than the number of addresses. 3. Data pain points: CORE’s on-chain statistics are not as mature as BTC or ETH. Santiment and Glassnode do not provide stable whale-specific statistics like they do for Bitcoin and Ethereum; data can only be found on Core Scan#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
In this round, BTC weakened in October mainly because ETF outflows were concentrated in a single BlackRock product, exaggerating the narrative of institutional withdrawal.
On one hand, corporate treasuries have significantly slowed their accumulation, risky companies no longer continue large-scale buying, and the US spot Bitcoin ETF has shifted from inflows to net outflows, reducing institutional allocation demand.
With both major supports weakening simultaneously, there is not enough capital to absorb the selling pressure from long-term holders. Coupled with a weakening US dollar and deteriorating liquidity, BTC prices naturally come under pressure.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 狗狗币（DOGE）鲸鱼（巨鲸）划分标准（市场通用口径） - 🐬海豚：100万～1000万 DOGE - 🦈鲨鱼：1000万～1亿 DOGE - 🐳鲸鱼：≥1亿 DOGE（能明显带动行情） - 🦑超级巨鲸：≥10亿 DOGE（机构/交易所级别） 数量与筹码情况 按Santiment统计：持仓≥1亿DOGE的钱包大约 140多个，这批地址合计持有超1080亿DOGE，筹码集中度远高于BTC、ETH。 重点大坑：链上rich list第一名不是某个大佬，是Robinhood的托管冷钱包（约272亿DOGE，接近流通盘17.5%），里面是几十万散户的币，不是一个人的；第二名Upbit、第三名Binance，也都是交易所托管钱包，属于用户资产托管，不是私人巨鲸。 早年那个传说持有接近30%DOGE的超级地址，在2021年底已经拆分，不是单一大户了。 特点（对比BTC/ETH鲸鱼） 1. DOGE是meme币，盘子流动性更薄，真正私人巨鲸一笔大额转出/砸盘，行情波动会比BTC、ETH猛烈得多，很容易带崩情绪、触发连锁爆仓 2. 筹码高度集中：前10大地址合计占流通盘$ZEC Although ZEC's rebound is strong this time, I still remain bearish and choose to short at this high point.
The current price is stuck in the 1180-1190 range, which happens to be the upper resistance of the descending channel.
As long as it cannot break through this level with volume and hold steady, this rally is just a rebound correction during the downtrend, not a reversal.
The channel pattern has not been broken, the resistance above is heavy, the bulls' sustainability is doubtful, and if it turns down under pressure, it will most likely continue to test the 1130-1000 range later. Netflix will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes on Tuesday. The stock has dropped the day after earnings in the past four reports, so I won’t touch it before this earnings.
The company guided revenue of $12.86 billion and EPS of 0.82, with market expectations almost matching the guidance.
Last week, it laid off about 1,000 employees, roughly 6% of its workforce, and also replaced its Chief Content Officer.
The results will be out around 4 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, followed by Tesla after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday.
The stock closed at 70.53 last Friday, down about 25% year-to-date, hitting a low of 65.08 after the July earnings.
The stock changes the day after the last four earnings were: -10.1%, -2.2%, -9.7%, -7.3%.
I think just meeting guidance isn’t enough this time; the real question is whether growth in North America has stopped, and also the implied Q4 in the full-year guidance.
Layoffs plus replacing the head of content is basically management admitting growth has slowed. When they report now, the market usually looks for flaws first.
My plan: no directional bets before earnings; wait for the results.
If the stock stands back above 75 (around the 50-day moving average) after earnings, it means the market accepts it, and my cautious judgment would be wrong; if it falls below 65.08, a new low for the year, then I’ll keep waiting and won’t buy.
What’s your bet this time: will it finally rise once, or will it drop for the fifth consecutive time?
$NFLX $TSLA
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 This morning's opening of the Korean stock market was indeed quite scary. The KOSPI opened sharply down 3.17%, at 5488 points, with $SAMSUNG Samsung falling over 3%, $SKHYNIX Hynix dropping over 4%, then quickly rebounding, currently narrowing the decline to about 1%.
The core chain behind this sell-off is: US AI chip stocks continuously correcting → the market starts doubting the financing returns of AI infrastructure → Korea's two memory giants take the brunt.
Looking deeper, the Korean stock market structure itself is very fragile—Samsung and Hynix together account for nearly half the KOSPI weighting; once foreign capital withdraws and leverage bursts, the index is magnifiedly hammered down. Additionally, expectations of Chinese memory manufacturers catching up technologically are fermenting, and the "monopoly premium" is being repriced.
Currently, the short term is still emotion-driven; the fundamentals of memory are not bad, but valuation and capital are both squeezing bubbles. In this market, don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for stabilization signals before making a move.ZEC liquidated again and again and again❗️❗️
Today I opened 8 ZEC positions, and all 8 got liquidated❗️
$ZEC
The real reasons behind this one-sided surge in ZEC:
1. Rotation and hype in the privacy coin sector. Recently, market funds don’t want to just stubbornly focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum large caps; they started digging into small-cap thematic coins. ZEC is a veteran privacy coin, and the Grayscale ETF expectation has been lingering, so funds use this story to pump the price.
2. The previous low at 1048.53 was quickly pushed up, representing short-term concentrated capital inflow with volume expansion, quickly triggering all short stop losses, causing a short squeeze rally and an independent trend that didn’t fully follow the BTC market.
3. Short-term bullish momentum is strong, short-term news heat rises, retail investors follow the trend to buy, further pushing the price up.
Next trend (personal prediction):
• Short term: It has already hit resistance above, up 9.3%, so there is a need for a short-term pullback to digest.
Strong support is around 1130; if it holds at this level on a pullback, funds are still willing to buy in, and there’s a chance to continue testing higher;
If funds take profits and run, breaking below 1130, it will quickly fall back, giving up this gain.
• Key point: ZEC has a small market cap and poor liquidity, so its price swings are very extreme. In this kind of independent trend, the rise is fierce, but once the hype fades, the dump speed will be much faster than BTC or Ethereum.
• Risk point: If the Bitcoin market suddenly weakens, the hype around privacy coins will directly extinguish, and ZEC can easily plunge rapidly.
#ZEC再创新高，估值重估受关注
#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 📂 20U Real Account Record 108
💰 Principal: 20U
📈 Profit on this trade: Floating profit
✅ Total accumulated profit: About +170U
💎 Current total funds: About 190U
📌 Current position: $SOL Long
Closed the short position on ONE and reversed to open a long position on SOL.
The logic for closing ONE is simple: The chain was shut down, TVL crashed from 1 billion to 150,000, tokens migrated to Ethereum as ERC-20, and practical value dropped to zero. Holding the short position until now, no fundamental reversal signals appeared, so it’s time to exit.
Why switch to long SOL? Three reasons.
1. Alpenglow upgrade is the day after tomorrow (October 21). The final confirmation time is compressed from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, an improvement of about 85 times. The new consensus Votor replaces TowerBFT, marking the biggest consensus layer upgrade since Solana went live on the public network, targeting high-frequency trading, institutional settlement, and AI agent economy. The upgrade itself is a clear catalyst window.
2. Q3 fundamentals are improving. Application revenue grew 48% quarter-on-quarter to $299.1 million, a new high since Q3 2025. Tokenized stock quarterly trading volume hit a record $7.1 billion, with $4.4 billion in September alone. Spot DEX trading volume reached 197.2 billion, accounting for 36% of cross-chain spot, maintaining above 30% for the ninth consecutive quarter.$ETH How was everyone's weekend rest? There was a rare weekend surge in volume this morning. Ethereum dipped to 2315 in the early hours, with a crisis erupting in the Korean stock market, resulting in huge weekend volume.
Looking at the consolidation and recovery from the 2315 level back to 2400, there is still support from funds. After the breakdown and sharp drop, the downward momentum is insufficient, so there shouldn't be a significant decline in the short term.
Considering the sharp drop in the US stock market with no pullback, the situation is likely worse than we imagined. This morning, tech stocks suffered another 5%+ hit. If Korean stocks like koru cannot rebound from the danger zone at Monday's open, it could trigger a new round of long position liquidations (koru has over $50 million in long positions around the 10 price level).
The collapse of the Korean stock market signals a situation similar to the 2008 avalanche. Back then, the Korean market dropped over 80% in a week; it has already fallen 60% now!
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #DailyOrbit Short position floating profit 140% does not mean the direction was right
Two short positions, one opened at 1.5, the other at 86,000.
Both are currently profitable.
Where does this money come from: 10x full margin, floating profit is calculated based on the difference between the opening price and the current price.
The price hasn't reversed, that's why the numbers look so good.
How is this number calculated: margin rate 6404%, indicating the money held in the account far exceeds the maintenance requirement.
To deduce, floating profit is just on paper; only realized when closed.
The real challenge is not opening shorts, but not manually closing when the price rebounds.
Holding on depends on having extra funds in the account.
Only when these two positions are actually closed does it count.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
#$BTC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点