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TradingBeats uncovered an "ETH major bull" related address: a historical completed trade win rate of 100%. On the evening of August 19, it aggressively opened a long position of 25,000 ETH at an average price of $1919, and simultaneously went long about $100 million worth of ETH with a mysterious new address — direction, timing, and target all synchronized.
But the label "100% win rate" is something I first want to verify by looking at the sample size. The key is not the 100, but the three words "completed trades" — trades that haven't been closed don't count, and the sample size isn't mentioned. That 100% figure might just be a few well-closed trades put together.
More telling is that detail: two addresses at the same time, same direction, same target — it doesn't look like two independent judgments, but rather sharing the same conclusion.
What we should really worry about isn't whether he's accurate, but whether the market will start chasing him — once the "100% win rate" attracts copy-trading funds, every position he opens will be amplified. At that point, can he still close positions as calmly as he does now? Those copying might only earn a small portion of his profits, but risk losing everything themselves.Author | WhiteLine Searching for direction before change arrives "WhiteLine" is produced by the Wu Shuo team, moving from Crypto to the broader capital market, focusing on trend changes in the AI era. Summary: On August 19, Moderna and Merck announced positive top-line results for Phase 3 INTerpath-001. The trial included 1,137 patients with Stage IIB-IV melanoma who had completed surgical resection, comparing Intismeran combined with Keytruda versus Keytruda alone. The pre-specified interim analysis showed that the combination regimen achieved statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in recurrence-free survival (RFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). Currently, two points need attention. First, Moderna has not yet released specific HR, absolute recurrence rate differences, and overall survival data for Phase 3. Therefore, what can be confirmed now is "Phase 3 positive," and the efficacy numbers from the previous Phase 2b cannot be directly applied. In the previous Phase 2b five-year follow-up, the combination regimen reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% and the risk of distant metastasis or death by 59% compared to Keytruda alone. Second, this study will not end early due to positive interim results and will continue to observe including overallCoinglass data shows that nearly 200,000 people worldwide were liquidated in 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $3.343 billion. Short liquidations exceeded $3 billion.
Over $1 billion in short positions were forcibly closed within one hour.
This is the largest wave of short liquidations since 2021. Meanwhile, the US BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $517 million. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $285 million. The total daily inflow into crypto ETFs reached $706 million.
This is no coincidence.
This is a perfect resonance between policy expectations and the short structure.
So, what does this rally really mean?
Some say it's a short squeeze. Some say it's a technical rebound.
But I think something bigger is happening.
If the US really starts including BTC as a national reserve asset—the valuation model of this market will be completely rewritten.
What was BTC's narrative before? "Digital gold," "inflation hedge," "safe haven asset."
Now? "National strategic reserve asset."
When a country's executive branch openly discusses "large-scale purchases" of an asset—the pricing logic of that asset is no longer determined by retail and institutions.
Sovereign buying is on another level.
$75,000? It might just be the starting point of a new paradigm.
But note—
Trump said "discussion," not "execution."
No plan yet.
Policy expectations can ignite the market, but implementation is the guarantee of the trend.
On September 15, the Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act.
That will be the real test.The gold vs crypto divergence isn't a coincidence, it's mechanical. Gold and Bitcoin are now moving on almost opposite logic. Gold's rally is being driven by real institutional conviction: SPDR's GLD pulled in $950M in a single session this week the third-largest ETF inflow that day, behind only S&P 500 funds. That's slow, multi-year-horizon capital, not momentum chasing. Bitcoin's playing a completely different game: ETF flows, not conviction. US spot BTC ETFs just posted their largest six-week#SPCX 319 million shares will be unlocked this week, can the selling pressure be absorbed?
SPCX is set to unlock 319 million shares, but it hasn't dropped much these past two days, indicating that some of the unlocking expectations have already been priced in.
At a scale of over a billion dollars, compared to BTC ETF's daily net inflow of 600 million, it's actually not that scary.
The key is who will absorb it—market makers locking in liquidity in advance means the unlocking day will see the negative news fully priced in; pure cashing out will cause a dip.
But this week, the crypto market is generally squeezing shorts, BTC is posting its best weekly performance in three years, and sentiment is strong.
In this environment, the selling pressure from unlocking is more likely to be absorbed rather than trigger panic.
Watch the order book on the unlocking day; a thick buy wall is an opportunity.
$BTC #SPCX Bitcoin surged strongly, breaking through $78,000 intraday, with a 24-hour increase of over 9%, hitting a recent high. Ethereum rose above $2,400, $SOL broke through $90, and overall market sentiment clearly warmed.
Behind the rise, shorts faced massive liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the total market liquidation amount exceeded $800 million, with short liquidations accounting for about $670 million, nearly 80% of the total. $BTC and $ETH were the main sources of liquidations, and the short squeeze further pushed prices upward.
On the funding side, the US spot Bitcoin ETF continued to attract capital, with a single-day net inflow exceeding $500 million, and institutional funds accelerating their layout again; the Ethereum ETF also recorded capital inflows, restoring market confidence, and the total crypto market cap returned above $2.5 trillion.
On the macro level, the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, which the market interpreted as a "mini QE" signal. Long-term US Treasury yields fell, and the dollar came under pressure, supporting the rise of risk assets. Meanwhile, Trump's push for the CLARITY Act's implementation also strengthened market expectations for improved US crypto regulatory environment.
However, the current rise still shows obvious characteristics of a short squeeze. As short positions rapidly decrease, whether the subsequent market can continue to break through will depend on whether spot funds can continue to take over.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX When Micron dropped that billion-dollar piece in Boise, what I saw was not a lab, but a deadly heavy cannon in the midgame ten years from now — but the gunpowder under the cannon rack was mortgaged with cash flow.
On the chessboard, the most dangerous move is called "sacrificing a piece to gain position." You voluntarily give up a rook, and your opponent, staring at the full board of pieces, feels secretly pleased, not realizing they have been led into an open file. Micron's billion-dollar research plan is this sacrifice: it gives up the comfort zone of short-term profit but concentrates all its forces on three open lines — HBM, memory computing, and advanced packaging. Those in the know understand this is not defensive follow-up; it’s creating a "hanging and unresolved" fog for the opponent before the king’s wing launches a full-scale attack.
But a grandmaster never looks only one step ahead. I have calculated the subsequent variations of this move: capital expenditure is the vanguard, revenue is the supporting cavalry. When the opponent trades pieces with you on the old defensive line of the "pricing cycle," Micron’s strategy is to switch to a new set of equipment called "R&D density" — exchanging a decade for three generations of technological iteration, turning the computing power density per square millimeter of silicon into its own territory. This move makes old rivals uncomfortable because traditional memory technology competes within known openings, while Micron drags the game into "endgame research": whoever generates less heat and power loss in the multilayer stacking of advanced packaging gains an extra pawn promotion opportunity.
On the other side of the board, $xLLY is watching precisely this "tactical weakness period" of the move. The market is never a judge of aesthetic layout; it only watches the clock. Capital expenditure falls first, but the revenue curve stays put — it’s like after sacrificing a piece, your king’s wing is wide open, and all spectators are waiting for your next defensive move. The pressure on cash flow acts like an invisible "force" — you must deliver a reliable midgame advantage in the coming quarters, or your valuation rating will be downgraded by half a point. Micron is betting that the "Memory+Compute" vertical can promote early, but promotion requires a pathway, and the bricks of that pathway are sustained capital firepower.
I have observed many similar situations: some aggressively sacrifice pieces in the midgame, only to find they miscalculated the opponent’s "transitional check" — that is, lower-than-expected gross margins in financial reports or slow shifts in customer orders. The hype around AI storage is a bluffing "check," but the real situation depends on whether the "castling" in the endgame is clean. Building a research lab in Boise is equivalent to locking itself into a longer game; the most interesting part of this move is that it forces all competitors to respond, and the response must be heavier capital expenditure. This is "tactical restraint" — you may not necessarily win, but every step your opponent takes becomes increasingly burdensome.
As for $xLLY, it’s just a spectator coin outside the board, reflecting not the player’s strength but the heartbeat of the audience. I have seen countless such heartbeats: when a costly research plan is announced, short-term positions panic as if "blitzed," while true players only focus on piece positions, not caring about gains or losses in one or two moves. But the problem is — if after this sacrifice, no substantial "checkmate" signals appear in three consecutive midgame phases, such as explosive growth in HBM orders or a reversal in gross margin, the board situation will gradually deteriorate into an endgame where both sides lack soldiers and supplies. At that point, discussing valuation is another game entirely.
Micron’s move essentially shifts competition from "positional warfare" to "maneuver warfare." Its chance of victory does not lie in the day the lab is completed but in every technological route choice: choosing advanced packaging is equivalent to controlling the flank’s pathway; choosing memory computing is like giving AI deployment a temporary "central pawn." But if the cash flow baseline is breached, all advantages instantly become targets for the opponent’s attack.
I turn off the board and watch the dwindling time on the clock. A billion dollars, a decade-long game — victory or defeat is never judged by the opening move but by whether you can safely tuck your king into the endgame castle before every "check."
The sacrifice has been made; no one on the board can regret the step they took. #micron10bairesearchNVIDIA Plans to Partner with South Korea's AI Rising Star Rebellions: What Is Jensen Huang's Aim with Low-Power Inference?
The global AI computing power leader NVIDIA is extending its capital reach with a highly forward-looking approach into the heart of Asia's semiconductor industry.
According to multiple insiders, NVIDIA is currently engaged in in-depth early-stage talks with South Korea's top AI chip design unicorn, Rebellions. The cooperation options on the table are flexible and full of imagination—not only covering technology licensing and strategic investment in underlying architecture but also not ruling out the possibility of a full acquisition.
As a trillion-dollar giant that almost monopolizes the global GPU training computing power market, why is NVIDIA showing such strong interest in a South Korean startup NPU (Neural Processing Unit) company?
To understand Jensen Huang's move, the key is to recognize a major shift in AI computing power demand—from "high-energy-consuming large model pre-training" accelerating toward "massive concurrent low-cost inference."
In the past two years, global tech giants have spared no expense to purchase thousands of NVIDIA's expensive high-end GPUs (such as H100, Blackwell) to train cutting-edge large models.
However, as large models are gradually deployed and enterprise applications explode, the biggest computing power consumption scenario has become hundreds of millions of daily API calls and edge inference. In the inference world, extreme energy efficiency, lower per-generation cost (TCO), and targeted optimization for memory latency are the core metrics that drive customer spending.
Rebellions is precisely the leading pioneer in Asia's dedicated AI inference chip field.
This South Korean national-level NPU unicorn, which recently integrated SK Telecom's Sapeon, boasts a core strength in dedicated ASIC architecture optimized for large language models and multimodal applications, deeply tied to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's advanced process and memory resources.
If NVIDIA can bring it under its wing through investment or acquisition, it will make two brilliant strategic moves in both defense and offense.
The first brilliant move is to strengthen defensive depth to guard against diversion and counterattack from custom ASICs.
Currently, Google TPU, Amazon Inferentia, and Meta's self-developed chips are rapidly encroaching on the inference market. NVIDIA must complement its general-purpose GPU with dedicated low-power inference architectures.
The second brilliant move is to lock in the ecosystem alliance of South Korea's semiconductor industry.
Incorporating South Korea's top chip design forces into NVIDIA's ecosystem can further consolidate its supply chain influence in HBM high-bandwidth memory and advanced processes, preventing potential rivals from forming an "anti-NVIDIA self-developed alliance."
This potential powerful partnership clearly signals to the market that AI chip competition has long surpassed mere benchmarking and computing power stacking, entering the deep waters of ecosystem monopoly and full-scenario energy efficiency positioning.
Facing NVIDIA's olive branch to South Korea's low-power inference chip giant, do you think the future AI inference market will continue to be dominated by the NVIDIA ecosystem, or will it be thoroughly disrupted by major tech giants' self-developed ASICs?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 BTC has been rising too exaggeratedly these days, so don't easily short on the left side recently.
This time, BTC's "car" is really too light.
Many crypto practitioners have sold off some of their crypto assets this year to allocate to US stocks. After the previous prolonged downturn, retail holders' BTC spot chips have clearly decreased, and the potential selling pressure is much lighter than before.
This leads to a very obvious phenomenon: the rise faces almost no pressure, and the familiar resistance levels are being directly broken one after another.
The most dangerous operation in this market is to still think in terms of a consolidation market, prematurely topping out and shorting when seeing resistance levels. Once the trend enters an acceleration phase, the so-called "resistance levels" may just be lines on the chart.
Left-side trading profits from turning points, but in extreme trends, the cost may be going against the trend.
You can stay out, wait for right-side signals, but don't rush to guess the market top.The moment the load-bearing wall was cast into a digital framework, the entire blueprint ceased to be just theoretical.
Franklin Templeton's construction plan has shifted tokenized money market funds from standalone showrooms into the main structure of ETFs and mutual funds. Regulatory approval is the green light to start, the capital pool is the concrete, and each fund share is a prefabricated floor slab.
On-chain money market funds were originally like temporary sheds—transient, independent, and only for internal viewing. Now they are becoming part of the permanent structure, even serving as collateral. This is akin to upgrading scaffolding to shear walls, fundamentally changing the load path of the entire asset management building. Traditional asset management has always been about load-bearing wall thinking. Foundations are designed for once-in-a-century earthquakes, and construction methods follow strict blueprint review, supervision, and acceptance. Tokenized funds entering this system means the prefabricated components have passed structural calculations and are officially included in the general specifications. Their status as collateral means they are not just decorative curtain walls but core structural elements bearing load.
With institutional distribution channels opening, funds will no longer flow through temporary basement pipelines. Steel has arrived, cement is here, and the tower crane is already erected. Most teams claiming to build real-world assets are still stuck at the rendering stage, without even excavating the foundation pit. This permit drives solid pile foundations deep into the fabric of traditional asset management.
In construction history, the most expensive drawings are not the blueprints but the redline plans. Today, regulators have drawn a new red line—digital native products can enter mainstream fund structures and even serve as collateral. This is a major breakthrough in construction technology, not just a new marketing buzzword. To gauge a building's future, look at how many pipelines its standard floors can support. If RWA only serves as single-story commercial storefronts, it cannot support the city skyline. When base modules like money market funds are incorporated into bank-grade structures, subsequent high-rise modules—credit, insurance, derivatives—gain vertical development space.
Market volatility scares retail investors, but structural engineers see only the natural shrinkage during concrete curing. Tokenized funds entering ETFs trade liquidity for scale and a clearing framework for structural safety. Every cross-sector casting releases some early holders' unrealized gains—this is normal acoustic rebound during construction. The quarterly cycle is comparable to a standard structural topping cycle; the real stress test comes after the wind hits.
As someone who constantly monitors beam and column reinforcement ratios, I see not just the joint between traditional funds and on-chain products. Once the load-bearing column positions are fixed where the chalk lines snap, subsequent pipelines, elevator shafts, and refuge floors must be rearranged around them. The building's structural system has been cleaned up—every rebar is exactly where it should be.
The best sound on a construction site is not the applause at the ribbon-cutting but the continuous low hum of the concrete pump truck pressurizing.
#ImpactCycle·QuarterlyLevel #GlobalRegulation·TokenizedFunds #ETF·MutualFunds·CollateralThe direct trigger for this round of $DOGE surge was the White House Crypto Summit on August 19 + the US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases. But CMC clearly pointed out: DOGE's 10% increase "is mainly a policy-driven macro shift across the entire market, with DOGE, as a large liquidity meme coin, overreacting to risk appetite news." In other words, DOGE itself has no substantial positive factors; it is completely "riding the tailwind of BTC breaking through $72,000."
More worrisome is the decay of the short squeeze: $5.49 million in short liquidations within 24 hours (some sources report $8.09 million), with short positions being rapidly eliminated. InteractiveCrypto warns: "This level of leverage inflow amplifies price movements and likely contributed to the $5.49 million short liquidations in the past 24 hours" — once the shorts are fully cleared and buying pressure dries up, DOGE, as a high Beta asset, will be the first to be sold off.
Trading advice: Immediately close 70% of your position at market price to lock in most of the profits; move the stop loss for the remaining 30% rigidly up to 0.07800 (above the entry price). If the price falls below this level, it indicates the short squeeze momentum has faded and macro positives have been digested, triggering an automatic full exit. $BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ After more than three months, the price of Ethereum has finally surpassed the $2300 mark.
From an external perspective, the rebound in macro risk appetite, improved regulatory expectations, and short squeeze have directly driven ETH's rise; internally, continuous inflows into spot ETFs, accelerated institutional allocation, and the steadily increasing scale of ETH staking have also continuously improved the market's medium- to long-term outlook for Ethereum. According to CoinGecko data, as of August 21, the ETH price rose to around $2354, recovering to the level seen in early May this year. In just one week, ETH increased by about 25%, ranking among the top ten gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, significantly outperforming Bitcoin during the same period. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has also continued to break the long-term downtrend, currently rebounding to around 0.031, returning to the level of April this year. With Ethereum's strong price rebound, its market capitalization has also re-entered the ranks of mainstream global assets. According to 8 Market data, Ethereum's total market cap has now risen to approximately $284.3 billion, surpassing Dell and ranking 72nd among global asset market caps. Several months ago, dragged down by continuous price declines, Ethereum's market cap had once fallen out of the top 100 global assets.
In this rapid rebound, shorts were forced to become the biggest "buyers." CoinGlass data shows that since August 19, the cumulative liquidation amount of Ethereum contracts has exceeded $1.33 billion, with short liquidations accounting for as much as 88.4%. Of course, large-scale short liquidations have further amplified ETH's upward momentum, resulting in a clear short squeeze.
Renowned trader Doctor Profit pointed out that Ethereum has now completely broken through the key resistance area of the bear market phase and, for the first time since the start of this bear market, has reclaimed the "golden line (weekly EMA50)" he follows. In his view, this breakthrough is an important technical signal for ETH, and he bluntly said to "fasten your seatbelt," while warning that shorts may face further pressure.
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee noted that the rising ETH/BTC exchange rate indicates that the market has begun to focus on the actual implementation of tokenization and AI agent applications, which will benefit Ethereum. Historically, the ETH/BTC exchange rate tends to rise during crypto bull markets as Ethereum's usage relative to Bitcoin increases. Previous drivers were the ICO wave from 2017 to 2018, the NFT wave from 2020 to 2021, and the stablecoin wave in 2025. The driving force for this cycle will be Wall Street's on-chain tokenization business and the large-scale use of blockchain by AI agents. Looser financial conditions will also provide tailwind support for the crypto market.
As a major Ethereum bull, BitMine has also welcomed a long-awaited "recovery moment." As of August 16, BitMine, the largest institutional holder of Ethereum, holds 5,815,164 ETH at an average cost of $3366. With Ethereum's rebound, BitMine's unrealized loss has narrowed from over $8.5 billion to $5.8 billion. This morning I read Justin's tweet. I'm not very interested in their lawsuit, but one sentence in Justin's article did catch my attention, saying that $USD1 might have a backdoor. Actually, if it refers to freezing assets, it's not only USD1 that has this function; other USDT and USDC also have it. Although it's not decentralized enough, this can be considered a good thing for the frequently chaotic crypto space. So I was very interested and made a comparison, putting the smart contracts of USD1, USDT, and USDC side by side to compare the level of "risk control" the three stablecoin issuers can exert over user assets. 1. USDC's permissions are relatively the most restrained. Circle can blacklist an address; once blacklisted, this address basically cannot send or receive USDC. At the same time, Circle can also pause the entire USDC contract. However, the current USDC contract does not provide an admin function to directly transfer USDC from a blacklisted address, nor does it have a destroyBlackFunds function like USDT that can directly destroy the entire balance of a blacklisted address. But USDC itself is an upgradeable contract; Circle controls the Proxy Admin and can replace the contract implementation. So what is described here is only what the current version can do and does not represent Ci$BTC Follow-up execution details on the US Treasury bond repurchase policy, core information as follows:
Core execution details
· Effective date: Starts on September 9, 2026, and lasts until November 4 (end of this refinancing quarter).
· Coverage: Two maturity ranges of 10 to 20 years and 20 to 30 years.
· Scale increase: Single operation cap at least doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion.
· Total cap: From September 9 to November 4, the total repurchase amount for 10- to 30-year US Treasury bonds is capped at $14 billion.
· Future guidance: The refinancing meeting on November 4 will announce subsequent repurchase scales.
· Treasury statement: Bassett indicated that $4 billion might just be the lower limit, and the single operation cap may be further raised in the future.
Where does the funding come from?
The Treasury usually finances by issuing Treasury bills with maturities not exceeding one year. Essentially, this is swapping short-term debt for long-term debt, similar to the Fed's "twist operation." Although it does not directly release liquidity, by reducing the supply of less liquid long-term bonds and increasing short-term debt supply, it helps adjust the debt structure.
Policy intent and market interpretation
The official statement is to provide "greater liquidity support." However, the market generally views this as a defensive move by the Treasury to actively intervene in long-end rates and suppress financing costs amid 30-year Treasury yields soaring above 5.3% (the highest since 2007). Although the incremental amount of about $16 billion per quarter is limited compared to the $40 trillion total debt, the signal is clear: the Treasury will not stand by and let the US Treasury bond market get out of control.
Potential transmission path to the Bitcoin market
· Short term (around September 9 launch): After the policy announcement, the 30-year yield dropped about 9 basis points, and the US dollar index fell to around 99.1. A weaker dollar supports dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin; if long-end rates surge again before the official execution in September, it may trigger a new round of safe-haven inflows into the crypto market.
· Medium term (before November 4): The repurchase is essentially a "short-for-long" debt swap; if financing is achieved by issuing short-term debt, the overall market liquidity impact is limited. Real liquidity release only occurs if the Treasury uses the TGA account (cash balance) for repurchases—this path has not yet been taken.
· Long term: If the repurchase successfully lowers long-end rates, it will reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like Bitcoin. Standard Chartered previously regarded US Treasury repurchases as one of the most beneficial policy factors for Bitcoin and predicted Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026. 🔥 BTC surged 18% in three days! Bears are bleeding heavily, but don't celebrate too soon...
Bitcoin just broke through $75,000! In the past 72 hours, it violently jumped from $64,100, reaching a high of $77,800, causing over 180,000 liquidations. Bears lost $4 billion in two days, with screams echoing through Wall Street. 😱
What’s driving this wave? Trump voiced strong support for the CLARITY Act, the U.S. Treasury quietly injected money to suppress the dollar, and bears were pushed into a corner—once the price broke the 200-day moving average, it triggered an "epic short squeeze," even forming a "head and shoulders bottom" reversal pattern. The technicals have indeed turned bullish, but the 4-hour RSI soared above 93, clearly overbought in the short term. 🥵
The real test is next: the short squeeze ammo is running low, and upward momentum must rely on ETF retail investors to take over. The ETF just saw a net inflow of $517 million the day before yesterday, hitting a three-and-a-half-month high, which is a good sign. But don’t forget, the big ETF players’ average cost is still $82,465, so entering now means being trapped. It’s hard to get them to keep putting money in. Corporate buying is also quiet, and Strategy’s old script of "buying coins on borrowed money" hasn’t restarted yet.
$BTC $SHIB $DOGE
Support is first seen at 73,000-74,000; if that doesn’t hold, it will drop back to 70,000; resistance above is a solid 80,000. Sellers are running out of steam, and historical experience says holding for a year could double your money—but the premise is that new money must truly come in. 🤑
Short-term volatility is inevitable, don’t chase the highs, keep an eye on ETF inflows and institutional moves. The winds are strong and the waves are rough; survival is key to the bull run. ⚡️#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 BTC suddenly surged these days. On the surface, it looks like an emotional ignition after breaking through $70,000, but fundamentally it is the collision of policy expectations, liquidity trading, and capital inflows.
First, looking at the macro level. The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of liquidity-supporting repos for some long-term government bonds, which the market immediately interpreted as a possible easing of pressure in the U.S. Treasury market and an expected improvement in the valuation environment for risk assets. Note, this is not direct money printing, but it reinforces the market's expectation of marginal liquidity easing.
Next, on the policy side. The White House met with the crypto industry, and the SEC proposed a new exemption framework for crypto asset issuance, leading capital to start trading ahead on the expectation of a regulatory warming in the U.S. For the crypto market, the most valuable aspect is not just the positive news itself, but the reduction of uncertainty.
Finally, capital verification. The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $517 million, indicating this wave is not all retail FOMO; after breaking key levels, short covering further amplified the gains.
Policy is the fuse, liquidity expectations are the oxygen. But the short-term surge is too rapid; don’t mistake a short squeeze for trend confirmation. Going forward, the focus will be on whether ETF inflows can continue and whether the dollar and long-term interest rates will continue to cooperate with $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Bitcoin's strong breakout has driven a recovery across the entire crypto market. Ethereum has surged over 20% in two days, successfully surpassing $2000; major altcoins like Solana have also generally recorded double-digit gains.
The total market capitalization of the crypto market has sharply rebounded within just three trading days, with market sentiment quickly shifting from fear to greed. $BTC
(Market dominance) increased in the early stages of the rally, but as the capital overflow effect became apparent, altcoins began to take over the upward momentum.
Meanwhile, the decoupling phenomenon between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets is noteworthy. Against the backdrop of a flat performance in the US stock market, Bitcoin's independent strength indicates that its digital gold safe-haven attribute and anti-inflation narrative are regaining recognition from institutional funds. Pi Network is making meaningful progress on the infrastructure side. Protocol 26 has already been deployed, while Protocol 27 is planned as the final upgrade of this cycle. Pi’s official channel has also confirmed the Protocol 26 upgrade deadline as 11/8. But the bigger story is the integration hype 👀 PayPal: A notable development is that PayPal’s official developer documentation now shows Pi Network (PI) among supported cryptocurrencies. RoboPay: Fabric Foundation has announced RoboPay, a paymIs the bull market back? Wrong question again. Everyone's asking this like it's binary. It's not different assets are answering differently right now. Gold just ripped $1.3T in combined market cap after this morning's Treasury news. AMD's still below both EMAs, digesting its biggest run this year. Yields are the highest since 2007-2008. That's not "bull market back" that's capital rotating hard into hard assets while growth names catch their breath. If crypto is genuinely the last domino in this$BTC strongly breaks through $78,000, driving a major rally in the crypto market. In the past 24 hours, BTC has risen over 9%, hitting a recent high; Ethereum has surpassed $2,400, $SOL broke through $90, and most major coins strengthened simultaneously.
This round of gains is accompanied by large-scale short liquidations. Data shows that the total liquidation amount across the market in 24 hours exceeded $800 million, with short liquidations accounting for about $670 million, nearly 80%. BTC and ETH were the main liquidation targets, causing a clear short squeeze in the market.
Capital flows also signal positivity. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow exceeding $500 million in a single day, with institutional funds returning; the Ethereum ETF also recorded significant inflows, market sentiment noticeably warming, and the total crypto market cap has climbed back above $2.5 trillion.
On the macro front, the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, viewed by the market as a "mini QE" signal. Long-term Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, supporting risk assets. Additionally, Trump is pushing forward the CLARITY Act process, further boosting market expectations for improved US digital asset regulatory environment.
However, it should be noted that part of this rally’s momentum comes from short squeezes. As short positions decrease, whether the rally can continue will depend on genuine buying interest and sustained institutional capital inflows. Whether $78,000 can become a new support level will be a key short-term observation point. $ETH
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 With the current core news breaking down the $BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升, can funds continue to take over? [Positive Factors] 1. U.S. Treasury stabilizes the bond market. The U.S. Treasury is expanding its long-term Treasury repurchase scale, improving Treasury liquidity. Long-term Treasury yields have retreated, and the dollar index has weakened, driving a collective rebound in risk assets, gold, and crypto assets—serving as the macro trigger for this major rebound. The market interprets this as a disguised relief of liquidity pressure, but not QE; it is a temporary liquidity adjustment with limited long-term effects. 2. SEC's new crypto regulatory proposal implemented. The SEC has launched a crypto asset regulatory proposal, setting two financing exemptions + safe harbor clauses, providing compliant financing paths for small and medium-sized projects. Industry expectations for regulatory certainty have boosted sentiment. The proposal is still in the 60-day public consultation phase and has not yet officially taken effect. 3. Concentrated Short Liquidation in Derivatives, Squeezing Short Market Earlier on, the market accumulated a large amount of short positions. After the price broke through key resistance, large-scale short liquidations were triggered, with passive buying boosting the momentum. The 24-hour short liquidation volume approached $3 billion, with short-term buying power quickly released. BTC spot ETFs saw large single-day net inflows, indicating a phased return of institutional funds rather than sustained large-scale inflows. 4. Market risk appetite recovers: US stocks and gold rose simultaneously, with risk appetite warming up. After Bitcoin surged, funds spread to large-cap altcoins and overall market cap increased. [Negative Factors] 1. Federal Reserve meeting minutes are hawkish, rate cut expectations fluctuate, and the latest minutes are evident#Anthropic plans to publicly disclose IPO documents by the end of August, with fundraising potentially matching SpaceX. Anthropic's Q2 revenue has already exceeded $11.5 billion, with an annualized revenue of $65 billion in July, and adjusted profits have turned positive. The company confidentially submitted the S-1 draft to the SEC in June and is currently preparing to publicly disclose the IPO documents as early as the end of August. SpaceX raised about $75 billion at its IPO, or approximately $86.2 billion including the overallotment, setting a record in U.S. stock market history. Anthropic's goal is to match or even surpass this figure.
However, the other side of the ledger is equally striking.
The net loss for the full year 2025 is close to $42 billion, five times the $8.3 billion loss in 2024. The computing power agreement signed with SpaceX could be worth hundreds of billions over three years. On one hand, revenue is surging; on the other, losses are expanding simultaneously—Anthropic's IPO pricing controversy lies not only in revenue growth but also in the cost structure of computing power, the loss timeline, and customer concentration.
In the short term, if the public documents reveal revenue and cash flow progress better than expected, it may drive sentiment recovery for AI chips and data center-related assets. If the scale of losses or customer concentration exceeds expectations, it could amplify the market's overall scrutiny of AI's high valuation. In the medium term, if Anthropic successfully lists at a high valuation, it will validate the commercialization path of "AI infrastructure + enterprise services" and provide a valuation anchor for unlisted AI companies..$ANTHROPIC $BTC $SNDK On August 21, $BTC saw $1.05 billion in 24-hour short liquidations, with the short squeeze multiplier plummeting from the previous peak of 15.9x to 4.32x — indicating that short positions in the market are being rapidly eliminated. WoofunAI's analysis hits the mark: short covering can quickly push prices higher but struggles to independently sustain a prolonged rally; subsequent active capital is needed to take over.
Fortunately, institutional funds are indeed starting to step in: on August 19, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of $517 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows and the largest single-day inflow in three and a half months; on August 20, BTC ETFs saw another net inflow of 6,603 BTC (approximately $472 million), with a 7-day cumulative net inflow of 11,149 BTC. BlackRock's IBIT attracted $284.7 million in a single day, accounting for 55% of the inflow.
However, this is precisely the most dangerous moment for high-leverage long positions: the short squeeze momentum is waning, and whether ETF funds can continue to support remains to be seen. The error tolerance for 100x leverage (1.1%) is far lower than the daily volatility of ETF fund flows. It is recommended to immediately close 70% of positions at market price to lock in most profits; the remaining 30% should have a hard stop loss moved up to 76,000 (above the entry price). If the price falls below this level, it indicates ETF support has failed and shorts are counterattacking, triggering an automatic full close by the system.
$ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX $SKHY SK Hynix 40 trillion won buyback—not a handout, but a fear of big shareholders running away
40 trillion won buyback + cancellation, the money AI earned is immediately distributed to shareholders.
$SAMSUNG Samsung might follow suit, reportedly planning a 100 trillion won level return plan.
Why? The stock price has dropped sharply; SK Hynix has fallen nearly half from its peak, and Samsung isn’t doing much better. Big shareholders are stuck and can’t take it anymore, ready to walk away at any time—the company has to use buybacks and dividends to keep shareholders at the table.
If shareholders are determined to leave, the stock price will crash directly. When institutions sell off, retail investors follow in a stampede, and the whole market can’t hold. The current buyback and cancellation are to stabilize these big shareholders.
Telling them: "Don’t leave, you haven’t lost money, the profits are shared with you."
AI has indeed made the company a lot of money, and cash flow has improved, but honestly, the buyback isn’t out of gratitude to shareholders—it’s to prevent you from running away, because if you run, the stock price can’t hold.
Whether the money AI earned is enough to simultaneously fund expansion and buybacks is the final key calculation. But for now, the priority is to keep the big shareholders. This isn’t charity, it’s the brake pad.🛞
#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 $KORU USDT is one of the strongest movers shown in the market snapshot, trading around 20.81 with a gain of 4.05%. The displayed activity is approximately $100.2M, while the reference price is near 20.8023.
A move above 4% immediately puts KORUUSDT on the momentum radar. What matters now is whether buyers can protect the current price area after the initial surge. Strong percentage gains often bring increased attention, but they can also create rapid reversals when momentum starts weakening.
The 20.81 region is therefore worth watching closely. If buyers continue defending this area, another push higher could develop. If sellers step in aggressively, the current gain could start disappearing quickly.
For me, the interesting part is the combination of price strength and visible market activity. KORUUSDT isn't quietly moving; it's already attracting attention.
The next decisive move could determine whether this becomes continuation or another short-lived spike.
#PopMartEarningsWatch #TreasuryUpsBuybacks #CLARITYRewardDebate #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
On August 20, Pop Mart released its performance report for the first half of 2026.
Revenue reached ¥17.173 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, but below the market estimate of ¥19.98 billion.
Net profit was ¥5.038 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year, also below the market estimate of ¥6.64 billion.
Gross margin was 69.7%, slightly down from 70.3% in the same period last year.
Founder Wang Ning candidly stated at the earnings meeting: "The first half of this year has been quite special for us. The pressure was indeed much greater than we expected, and we faced many difficulties and challenges that we had not anticipated before."
He positioned 2026 as a "year of consolidation," clearly indicating that the pressure in the second half will be greater than in the first half, and it is highly likely that the 20% growth target set at the beginning of the year will not be achieved this year.
The net profit growth rate significantly lags behind revenue growth — revenue increased by 23.8%, while net profit only grew by 10.1%. Profit has not kept pace with revenue, indicating a decline in the quality of growth. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
The structural changes at the IP level are the most noteworthy highlight of this earnings report.
The market's long-standing biggest concern about Pop Mart has been its over-reliance on the single IP LABUBU. This period's data shows that this pattern is undergoing significant change.
The leading IP THE MONSTERS (including LABUBU) generated revenue of ¥4.454 billion, still ranking first, but down 7.5% year-over-year.
This is a cyclical phenomenon reflecting the return of blockbuster IPs' popularity to normal levels, not a deterioration in operational capability.
The explosive growth of new IPs is striking—Twinkle Twinkle surpassed ¥2.65 billion in revenue in half a year, soaring 580.6% year-over-year, instantly becoming the company's second largest IP.
CRYBABY, DIMOO, and SKULLPANDA recorded revenues of ¥1.63 billion, ¥1.62 billion, and ¥1.5 billion respectively, with six major IPs each exceeding ¥1 billion in revenue. Eleven artist IPs generated over ¥100 million each.
The "one dominant, many strong" model is transitioning to "multiple strong contenders." The replicability of the IP incubation system has been preliminarily validated, significantly thickening the company's safety net against the decline in popularity of any single IP.
However, LABUBU's decline is real. Whether new IPs can continue to take over depends on their sustainability in the coming quarters. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
The overseas market constitutes the biggest concern for this period's performance. Revenue in the Asia-Pacific region fell 9.7% year-on-year to ¥2.58 billion, while revenue in the Americas dropped 16.5% year-on-year to ¥1.89 billion.
Pop Mart attributes the decline to the "waning of external traffic dividends" and the "core IP heat returning to normal."
Online channels were particularly weak—Asia-Pacific online revenue plummeted 39.8%, and Americas online revenue decreased 45.6%.
The Chinese market became the most important support. Revenue in China increased from ¥8.28 billion to ¥12.20 billion, a year-on-year growth of 47.3%, with revenue share rising from 59.7% to 71.0%.
Online channel revenue grew 62.7% year-on-year to ¥4.78 billion, with the blind box machine app increasing 83.3% to ¥2.06 billion.
Offline channels are also expanding; retail stores in the Americas grew from 41 to 86, and in Europe from 18 to 45. As of the end of June, the total number of global stores reached 676.
After opening new areas in the amusement park, foot traffic exceeded expectations, more than doubling month-on-month, with over 25% coming from night tour projects.
The company chooses to trade short-term profits for long-term channel health and innovation space in business formats.
Overseas markets have contracted, domestic markets have held up, and new business formats are being tested. Pop Mart is seeking growth paths for the post-LABUBU era during this "rest period."Luckily I ran fast, that Pop Mart spike almost killed me
I saw that Pop Mart spike with my own eyes. It dropped straight from 19.10 to 17.93. Fortunately, I got out, or I would have blown up
Good thing I ran fast, if I had left a bit later, I'd be up on the mountain top now, just watching the wind.
The earnings data can't support this price—revenue up 23.8%, profit only up 10.1%, revenue growth without profit growth, LABUBU cooling down, Star People taking over, overseas business still declining, inventory and profit margins under pressure. With these fundamentals, a spike like this is not surprising at all.
In comparison, BTC and ETH are still better. $BTC went from 66000 to 78000, $ETH from 2000 to 2400, clear direction and steady trend, making money while just holding. Stocks like Pop Mart, once the money leaves, it leaves without much talk, and the spikes are much harsher than BTC.
This time I’m lucky to have run. Rather than being anxious with stocks like this, it’s better to honestly follow the trend with BTC and ETH, at least you can sleep well. ⚡️
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #Anthropic plans to file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
Anthropic's IPO is imminent, with a trillion-dollar valuation about to face scrutiny from global investors.
A company founded only five years ago aims to match the largest IPO fundraising record in human history. But behind this ambition lies a harsh ledger.
A net loss of $42 billion is expected in 2025, five times the $8.3 billion loss of the previous year.
The core driver of the expanding losses is computing power costs—Anthropic's computing resource supply agreement with SpaceX could be worth tens of billions of dollars over the next three years, and there are multiple similar agreements. OpenAI is also facing similar cost pressures during the same period; the entire AI large model industry is dealing with extremely high expenses from the computing power arms race.
Anthropic believes it can achieve operational profitability in 2026, but while revenue grows rapidly, capital expenditures and operating losses are also expanding in tandem.
The market will provide the answer with real money during the IPO process—whether the trillion-dollar valuation is a reasonable price for the AI era or the biggest bubble in the capital expenditure race.
This IPO, one of the largest in the history of global capital markets, is itself the ultimate stress test for AI track business models.
#Anthropic plans to file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX Two days of broad gains—Is this the start of rotation or the peak of sentiment?
The performance of the top 100 by market cap indeed marks one of the rare broad rallies this year.
The most obvious change is not that a single coin surged dramatically, but that capital is beginning to spread from isolated rallies to multiple sectors.
First, Meme tokens are active again
BOME, PEOPLE, NEIRO, PUMP, PENGU, WIF, PNUT, TURBO, and others all appear among the top gainers.
One Meme token rising might be news-driven;
a group of Meme tokens rallying together reflects a recovering market risk appetite.
Second, long-dormant old coins are collectively moving
ONT, GAS, QTUM, NEO, and even STEEM have entered strong zones.
These older projects from 2017–2021 moving together indicate that capital is no longer satisfied chasing a few hot narratives but is spreading toward low-level, high-volatility assets.
Third, clear linkage appears in the $BTC ecosystem
STX, ORDI, 1000SATS are strengthening simultaneously.
If only one project rises, it can be attributed to individual coin logic; several projects in the same sector strengthening together signals sector rotation.
Fourth, DeFi is also taking over
ENA, OSMO, CRV, LISTA, RSR, and others are also showing active performance.
Fifth, and what I consider most important—the large-cap coins are joining in
$XRP and $ADA both strengthen.
This is a completely different concept from a pure small-cap rally.
If only high-volatility coins like ONG, BOME, NEIRO are surging, it only indicates speculative sentiment has returned. But when large-cap coins, DeFi, the BTC ecosystem, Meme tokens, and even old coins all start rotating,
this shows the market’s risk appetite is expanding from localized activity to a broader scope.
What’s truly worth noting these two days is a phenomenon we haven’t seen for a long time:
Money is starting to flow in different directions.
Of course, two days of broad gains are not enough to prove the market has completed a trend switch.
What we really need to watch next is whether this sector rotation can sustain, and whether strong coins can maintain relative strength after the next market pullback.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Two suggestions to empower the value of the ondo token with $ONDO: 1. Distribute on-chain protocol revenue to token holders, with the project team holding the majority of tokens so their interests are not significantly affected. 2. Establish a token consumption mechanism where using ondo tokens for ondo perps trading grants fee reductions or discounts, which can both expand ondo users' purchasing power and enhance the token's value. How many people still think this small bull run is a fake pump???
The market keeps hitting new highs in this phase, but there is huge divergence in the market. Many traders still believe this is just a fake pump rebound triggered by news.
Sentiment and contract data: The greed index has reached 62, entering the greed zone. Nearly 45% of traders in social surveys judge this round of the market as a pulse fake pump. On the contract side, the old batch of short positions has been fully liquidated after a short squeeze, and new short positions are being set up at high levels to bet on a pullback; the BTC long-short ratio is close to balanced, retail investors are more bearish, while large holders dominate the long positions, showing a split in long-short views.
Why do many insist on the "fake pump" theory: The core driver of this rise is a short squeeze, not a massive influx of new external funds. BTC ETFs currently only see intermittent capital inflows and have not formed a continuous steady net inflow; on-chain activity is mostly internal reshuffling of existing funds, with short-term profit-taking continuously moving to exchanges for cashing out.
Two possible outcomes: If ETFs continue to have net inflows and industry and policy expectations keep materializing, this round will evolve into a real trend market; if the short squeeze momentum runs out and spot capital fails to take over, the new highs cannot be sustained, then this recovery is just a short-term fake pump.
We cannot simply take sides based on opinions; let the market capital decide, and avoid premature subjective conclusions.
Market dynamics are only for review reference and cannot be directly used as a basis for judging price movements.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL BTC is around $71,000; the price has stagnated, but the expectations have likely already been exhausted. What variables have been reflected in the price and which have not yet? The original poster points out that this rise has proceeded without a clear correction since the bottom, and despite a series of positive news, the price is consolidating around $71,400 with decreasing volume at each peak. This can be interpreted as weakening new buying pressure needed for further gains. However, the long-term trend is still considered bullish, and the poster states that if the price breaks above $71,800, they will admit their judgment was wrong. - BTC is fluctuating around $71,400, with volume decreasing on each attempt to rise - ETH has recently shown a relatively strong rebound but its ratio compared to BTC has not yet recovered - Stocks like BEAT and SNDK are in a psychologically amplified zone, making chasing buys inefficient - The overall market has positive factors priced in$LAB surged from 0.07 to 25 and then fell back to 0.07, $BEAT went from 0.1 to 11 and then back to zero, $BICO rose from 0.01 to 0.09 and then dropped below 0.02—these three sets of numbers are the most brutal scripts of the past few months. Have you ever wondered why every time you fantasize about huge profits, it always shatters just when you are heavily invested? I reviewed my own trading records and found a particularly painful pattern: all major losses came from those "star coins" I chased by watching the top gainers list. They are like carefully designed traps, using parabolic rises to hook your greed, then teaching you a lesson with free fall. Let's start with $LAB; at its peak of 25U, many shouted "the 100x coin is here," but it came down from the top with weak rebounds, steadily declining back to the starting point. More subtly, every small rebound during this process had huge selling pressure—not retail investors selling, but smart money unloading in batches. You think you've bottomed out, but you're actually catching their last chips. $BEAT is even more typical, dropping from 11U back to 0.1U with almost no decent resistance in between. Behind this lies a harsh truth: when the narrative hype fades, liquidity dries up instantly like a receding tide, and the order book is too thin to withstand any disturbance. Both bulls and bears get repeatedly harvested because the whales don't care about direction, only volatility. Then look at $BICO, which rose from 0.01 to 0.09—a considerable increase—but the drop was even more decisive, breaking below the starting point and continuing downward. What does this indicate? It shows that coins at this level, aIn 1163, Notre-Dame Cathedral was founded. When the first stone fell, no craftsman knew if they would live to see the spire pierce the sky. Many of them really didn't see it. The Gothic cathedral is one of the most extraordinary engineering marvels in human civilization—not because of its high vault, but because it requires generations to pass on the same blueprint, each knowing they are just a footnote to the building. Ethereum is becoming the cathedral of the digital world. 1. The Invisible Architect In 2015, Ethereum went live. By June 2025, ten years later, the cumulative number of developers in the Ethereum ecosystem will surpass 1 million, with more than 31,000 active developers—nearly double that of Solana, which is closest to it. These one million people are spread across the globe, with no unified employer, no headquarters, and many have never met each other. The code they submitted, the EIP proposals they reviewed, and the vulnerabilities they discovered all combined into a decade-long construction chain. This reminds me of the anonymous stonemason of a medieval cathedral. Cologne Cathedral was built from 1248 to 1880, spanning 632 years. Each generation of stonemason follows the blueprints left by predecessors, carving their own marks into the invisible flying buttresses. Ethereum's EIP proposal system is this blueprint: EIP-1559 changed the gas fee mechanism, EIP-4844 opened a cheap data channel for Layer 2, and EIP-7251 raised the validator balance cap from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH.Supply and Demand Relationship in Chip Structure — Review + Future Projection
A month ago, with the US stock market pullback, MicroStrategy selling coins, and oil price rebound, why didn’t BTC drop under all these negative factors?
Because the chip structure limited the downward momentum!
Over 2 million BTC were accumulated in the 62,000-64,000 range, with concentrated turnover in the short term, making everyone’s cost roughly the same.
For example, if you bought BTC at 62,000 and it dropped to 58,000, would you sell? I think most likely not. If you think so, others do too.
So, as long as no one sells, no matter how much macro liquidity shrinks or demand dries up, the price won’t fall.
After nearly two months of low volatility sideways movement, BTC surged from 64,000 to 75,000 within 3 days; why could it rise so fast?
It’s still the structural advantage of chip distribution!
Look, during these days, the chip bar at $63,000 barely moved, while the chip bars between 68,000-74,000 remain very short.
🚩 This indicates two points:
1. The rise was too fast, giving no chance for turnover; those who didn’t buy earlier almost couldn’t get on board.
2. The chips in the concentrated area were not eager to sell during the rally.
If there’s no selling pressure, even a little buying power can push the price up; I don’t need to explain this further.
Essentially, price is determined by supply and demand. And chip structure is the clearest expression of supply and demand.
For future projections, I have the following thoughts:
1⃣ Rapid rallies often can’t last. When the price reaches a certain height, chips will start to loosen.
2⃣ When chips start to loosen, the price will stabilize or even pull back. A new chip concentration area will then form.
3⃣ If not, then the firmness and support of the 62,000-63,000 concentrated chip area will be tested again.
4⃣ After this battle, the possibility of a large subsequent break below support is shrinking.
5⃣ For those still waiting for 40,000/30,000, the probability of missing the next cycle is infinitely increasing. Bitcoin is really fierce. Last time I said it would break the 70,000 level, and it happened within minutes. This time I said it would reach the target range of 75,000~78,000, and it has just about reached that. At this point, guessing the top or looking for reasons behind the rise is pointless. Shorting still requires waiting; you can't be reckless. Many people might be afraid of heights and hesitant to go long, so overcoming the fear of missing out is key. If you don't participate, then don't; observing and learning isn't a bad thing.
Sometimes simple math is the most straightforward. This was proven effective when calculating SpaceX's stock price tops and bottoms before. 6.25×1.2=7.5, meaning even 5x leverage has already been liquidated. If 3x leverage gets liquidated, the target price would be above 80,000. As I said yesterday, from the chip perspective, there is actually little resistance below 80,000. Whether the final price reaches that, I don't know; we'll see as it goes. After all, once Bitcoin starts moving, the pace will be very fast.$BTC Bitcoin's recent surge is not accidental; it is driven by a resonance of three factors:
Short squeeze market
Previously, the price dropped from 126,000 to just over 60,000, and the market unanimously shorted on every rebound, resulting in a large accumulation of short positions with high leverage. After the price broke through, short positions were consecutively liquidated, and liquidations require buying to close positions, causing passive buying to continuously push the price higher, forming an upward cycle.
US Treasury signals liquidity release
From September 9 to early November, the US Treasury increased the single repurchase limit for long-term bonds from 2 billion to over 4 billion. With eased liquidity expectations, US Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, driving risk assets including cryptocurrencies higher.
Positive expectations for US crypto policy
Trump met with top executives of leading crypto companies, expressing intentions to make the US a global digital asset hub; the SEC introduced new regulatory proposals, and Trump mentioned considering government purchases of Bitcoin.
Whether these will materialize remains unknown, but they have greatly boosted market sentiment. $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ This round of $BTC pulling back above 70,000 is truly interesting not because of the price itself, but the way it’s rising. It’s not Meme coins flying around, not altcoin rotations, not a sudden explosion of retail sentiment, but rather the combined effect of regulation, ETFs, the bond market, and dollar expectations all pushing BTC back to the main stage. Today’s news shows $BTC has already stood above the 72,000 USD range, with some quotes even reaching higher levels. This kind of movement is not an ordinary rebound; it’s capital re-recognizing BTC as the market’s overall leader.
When I look at $BTC now, the key question isn’t "can it still rise," but whether there’s buying support on the pullbacks. It lingered around 64,000 for a long time, and many in the market found it boring, ETF flows were fluctuating, and Saylor’s side wasn’t continuously buying. Everyone thought it was dull. But then regulatory expectations came together: the White House crypto meeting, Trump pushing the Clarity Act, CFTC/SEC market structure discussions, and long-term US Treasury buybacks all stacked up, forcing shorts to cover passively. This kind of rise is different from retail FOMO; it looks more like mainline capital repricing.
In the short term, I’m watching two levels. First, can the 70,000 round number hold? If this level stabilizes, it means the previous breakout wasn’t just an emotional spike but capital willing to lift the new platform. Second, can the 72,000 to 73,000 USD area turn from resistance into support? If the pullback doesn’t break below, the market will be hard to short because what shorts fear most isn’t a rise, but a rise that doesn’t retreat.
But don’t chase blindly here. BTC’s short-term rise is fast, and some indicators are definitely overheated, especially with news mentioning aggressive short liquidations, indicating part of this move is driven by passive buying. The advantage of passive buying is a quick lift; the downside is if spot and ETFs don’t follow, a pullback is likely. So I don’t just look at a big green candle; I focus more on the quality of the pullback. A strong market doesn’t mean no corrections, but that corrections find buyers at key levels.
The most important change this round is that capital is starting to recognize only the mainline again. DOGE, Meme coins, and many altcoins haven’t truly taken off yet, while BTC has already drawn market attention away. At this point, don’t rush to fantasize about a full altcoin season; first, see if BTC can establish a new base above 70,000. If the mainline isn’t stable, altcoin hype tends to be short-lived; once the mainline is stable, capital will then spread along BTC, ETH, and strong sectors.
My judgment is simple: now is not the time to watch the spectacle but to watch for support in $BTC. If it can hold above 70,000, it means this move isn’t a pump-and-dump; if it dips below 70,000 but quickly recovers, the bulls are still in control; if it falls below 68,000 with volume, it means short-term sentiment is overheated and we need to wait for a better level.
The signal BTC is sending to the market this round is very clear: before the mainline returns, don’t rush to look for supporting players. The one that can truly drive the whole market is still it. $BTC If you only focus on the K-line in these 3 days, you might think the crypto market suddenly went crazy, is the bull market here? The surge is beyond imagination! $BTC has rallied from around 63,000 to a high of 79,603 USD, and is still around 77,000; $ETH surged from around 1,900 to a high of 2,449, with strength even surpassing BTC. But after reanalyzing the funds over these days, it looks more like four forces suddenly resonated. The first force is real money ETF buying. From August 17 to 20, the US BTC spot ETF had net inflows for 4 consecutive trading days, approximately 298 million, 189 million, 517 million, and 606 million USD respectively, totaling about 1.61 billion USD; ETH ETF also had net inflows of about 509 million USD during the same period. This indicates that the latter half cannot simply be explained as "contract-driven pump." The second force is a critical variable in the US Treasury market. The 30-year US Treasury yield previously surged to the highest level since 2007, and the US Treasury subsequently doubled the repurchase scale of some long-term bonds to at least 4 billion USD per time. The long-end yield quickly fell, the dollar weakened simultaneously, directly opening up valuation space for risk assets. The third force is the reduction of regulatory discount. Trump publicly promoted the CLARITY Act, and expectations for clearer crypto regulatory boundaries in the US reemerged, with Coinbase, Strategy, and other crypto assets strengthening simultaneously. Additionally, a large number of shorts had accumulated in the 65,000–70,000 range earlier, and the breakout triggered continuous short squeezes. The fourth signal actuallyIn just two days, how badly did the shorts suffer? On August 20, Bitcoin broke through $71,000, triggering a strong short squeeze in the market. $BTC surged over 10% in a single day, ETH rose nearly 19%, and a large number of short positions were forced to liquidate. According to CoinGlass data, over the past 24 hours, the global crypto market saw liquidations exceeding $3 billion, with the vast majority coming from shorts. About 170,000 traders were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation occurring in the Hyperliquid BTC-USDT contract, amounting to nearly $50 million. Today, BTC continued to break through, with the price once approaching around $80,000. This means: The shorts trapped yesterday have not yet fully recovered, and new shorts have entered the market. The market is forming a continuous short squeeze trend. From the data, the biggest feature of this rally is not just a simple rise, but: Rise → Short stop-loss → Forced buying → Driving the price to continue rising. This is a typical "short squeeze." Why were the shorts so severely damaged this time? Because the market had been in a long period of consolidation and adjustment, many traders habitually believed: BTC couldn't go higher; $70,000 was the top; they should continue shorting. But when BTC broke through the key resistance level, the market logic changed. Those who were originally bearish were forced to become buyers during the rally. This is also why, many times: at the start of a rally, the ones most likely to get hurt are not those without positions, but those trading against the trend with high leverage. Of course, [The Triple Logic Behind Bitcoin's Surge + Midterm Election Foreshadowing]
Yesterday, Bitcoin skyrocketed, rising 8% in a single day to touch the 70,000 mark. This is the first big bullish candle since June. Even Ethereum surged more than ten percent. Essentially, this is a resonance of three forces:
1. Treasury's liquidity support
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suddenly announced that the repurchase scale of 10-30 year Treasury bonds would double from 2 billion each time to no less than 4 billion, continuously releasing liquidity from September 9 to November 4. Once the news broke, the US dollar index plunged 8%, gold rose 3.5%, and risk assets collectively rallied, with the crypto market taking off directly.
2. Short squeeze from liquidations
On the same day, short positions were forcefully liquidated up to 1.4 billion USD, with 1 billion liquidated within one hour — price rallies triggered short stop-losses, and liquidations themselves are buying actions, creating a positive feedback loop of "price rise → liquidation → further price rise," pushing the market even higher.
3. White House policy signals
On the same day, Trump met with crypto industry CEOs and regulators at the White House, publicly stating that the US is evaluating large-scale purchases of Bitcoin and crypto assets, and urging Congress to quickly pass the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" to define regulatory boundaries for the industry, directly boosting market confidence.
This surge seems more like a short-term event-driven move. Besides liquidity release, the crypto fundamentals haven't changed much, but the midterm election game is just beginning. Future market trends will depend on policy implementation and capital competition. I smell the fresh scent of a small bull coming!!!
The market keeps hitting new phase highs, the profit-making effect is spreading widely, altcoins are moving one after another, ETF funds are flowing back, and the scent of a small bull is in the air. But it’s important to distinguish: this is a strong recovery, not equivalent to a full bull market.
From the data perspective, BTC continues to rise, with a 24-hour liquidation of short positions reaching 3.3 billion, triggering a short squeeze rally; BTC and ETH spot ETFs are seeing phased capital inflows, and institutional funds are starting to replenish positions. Market risk appetite is rising, funds are overflowing from mainstream to others, a large number of oversold altcoins are starting to catch up, altcoin total market cap is rising simultaneously, and the profit-making effect is visible to the naked eye.
However, several necessary conditions have not yet fully materialized. ETF inflows are currently intermittent and have not formed a continuous steady net inflow; long-term dormant chips have not fled, but on-chain more is portfolio adjustment of existing funds, and massive incremental funds off-chain have not yet entered on a large scale. The daily RSI is in severe overbought territory, and the crowding of bulls remains high.
The small bull flavor has indeed arrived, but it belongs to a recovery-type small bull market, not a mindless one-way rise. Under high overbought conditions, a technical pullback and shakeout could come at any time. You can participate accordingly, but avoid chasing highs crazily, and do not mistake short-term recovery for the end of a major bull market.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, aiming to raise funds that could match SpaceX. My first reaction when I saw this news was: Here we go again?
Anthropic is going public, with the prospectus expected as early as the end of August, and they secretly submitted the S-1 in June. Their fundraising target directly competes with SpaceX—SpaceX just set a global IPO record of $86.2 billion in June this year, and this guy says they want to match or even surpass that.
The valuation is even more outrageous; the market is already talking about $2 trillion. What does $2 trillion mean? Coca-Cola and Pepsi combined don’t even come close. A company whose most famous product externally is a chatbot, valued at $2 trillion—I really start to question my understanding of money.
But you really can’t call them crazy. Q2 revenue was $11.5 billion, compared to only $787 million in the same period last year, a 14-fold increase in one year. Annualized revenue has already reached $65 billion, and Q2 even achieved adjusted operating profit for the first time. This growth curve is unmatched in tech history.
So the question is: Is this the biggest opportunity in human history, or the biggest bubble?
I tend to wait and see. Everyone knows how fast AI burns money; Nvidia’s GPUs are not cheap. Now with hundreds of billions in revenue, they dare to be valued at $2 trillion—what if growth slows down next year? Also, OpenAI is in line, and when two giants start drawing blood, whether the market can handle it is another question.
An AI company valued at $2 trillion sounds like a game of hot potato. What do you all think? $CORE says an uncomfortable truth many are unwilling to face this evening, exposing the self-deceptive tactics rampant within the community.
The most widespread narrative currently: as long as BTC surges back to 120,000, CORE will surely hold steady at $1.
On paper, the logic seems perfect—oversold at a low price, small-cap elasticity, BTCFi sector support—a complete bull market storyline.
The key to this tactic is deliberately hiding all the harsh preconditions, only throwing out the enticing outcome.
It never mentions sector competition, ongoing unlocking selling pressure, or the layers of trapped positions. It paints the ideal bull market scenario as an inevitable reality, continuously feeding holders with empty promises.
Market data has long disproved these rosy illusions.
BTC surged $13,000 in two days, the entire market celebrated wildly, yet CORE only saw a slight rebound of 0.006. In this structural market, when BTC rallies, this area is more prone to bleeding out, making it hard to share in the market gains.
To reach $1 requires four simultaneous conditions: a super bull market, the sector becoming the main theme, massive capital overflow, and competitors yielding traffic.
The harsh prerequisites are simplified into a slogan, using holders’ unwillingness to admit losses and fear of missing out to stabilize positions.
A pragmatic view of the market suggests $0.3–0.5 is the reasonable recovery range for this cycle.
$1 is just a morale booster, a way to numb holders.
Narratives can attract attention, but the market is the only truth. Faith in positions supported by fantasies will collapse completely after a single correction.
⚠️This is only a personal market perspective and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; trade rationally.Bitcoin’s historical drawdowns have become less extreme with each cycle: 2011: -93% 2015: -87% 2017: -83% 2021: -78% 2026: -54% 👀 If the trend of diminishing volatility continues, a deeper correction could still put the potential cycle low somewhere around $40K–$48K. For perspective: • 60% drawdown: ~$50,500 • 65% drawdown: ~$44,200 • 68% drawdown: ~$40,400 There’s another factor I’m watching: the historical 12–14 month peak-to-trough cycle window hasn’t fully played out yet. That doesn’t guaraBehind the 23% surge in $BTC, the market is trading on U.S. debt anxiety.
The U.S. Treasury has raised the single repurchase limit for long-term bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective from September 9 to November 4.
The funds come from Treasury cash or short-term debt issuance, without creating new money, so this is neither QE nor yield curve control, but more like a maturity swap.
Yet $BTC still broke through $77,000, with a weekly gain of 23%, gold rose in sync, and the dollar weakened.
This indicates the market is not trading the $4 billion figure itself, but the signal this event releases: long-term financing costs have risen to a level that unsettles policymakers, who may need stronger measures to suppress yields in the future.
This is also the core logic behind the rise in hard assets.
If the government chooses to lower interest rates to ease debt pressure, the real purchasing power of cash and bonds may be impaired, naturally giving Bitcoin and gold a premium; short covering then amplifies the short-term rally.
However, the repurchase scale is still small relative to U.S. debt supply, and the 30-year yield has already rebounded from its low.
Don't mistake the maturity swap for unlimited easing; focus on long bond yields and the dollar.
Pay special attention if both continue to rise, as this liquidity narrative will be repriced by the market!
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Key Price and Market Data
• Bitcoin (BTC): Started around $64,000-$65,000 on August 19, broke through $70,000 on August 20, with an intraday high of approximately $72,000-$73,000 (some sources reported about $72,850-$73,000), a 24-hour increase of about 5-12% (depending on the time window), a significant rise compared to early week levels. This marks the highest point since early June.
• Ethereum (ETH): Even larger gains, about 18-20%, approaching or surpassing $2,300.
• Other major coins: Most, including XRP and Solana, saw double-digit increases; HYPE (Hyperliquid) performed notably due to Trump-related remarks.
• Total Market Cap: Rose to approximately $2.4-$2.5 trillion (24-hour increase over 10%).
• Trading Volume: Significantly expanded, with Bitcoin’s daily trading volume surging notably.
• Sentiment Indicator: Fear & Greed Index rose to the “Greed” zone (around 59-62).
• Follow-up: By early trading on August 21, BTC further surged to around $75,000-$77,000, with weekly gains potentially reaching about 20%.
This rally is a typical resonance of “macro liquidity + policy expectations + leverage liquidations,” with short-term gains mainly driven by short squeeze amplification. The sustainability depends on continued ETF inflows, spot demand, and actual progress on the Clarity Act. The market has broken out from weeks of consolidation From the data, it indeed arrived: Bitcoin surged over 8% in a single day, once touching 70,000; Ethereum was even more dramatic, rising nearly 20% intraday, jumping straight from 1900 to 2300. The entire network's shorts were bloodied within 24 hours, with liquidations exceeding 2.7 billion. The last time Bitcoin rose more than 7% in a day was in April this year. This wave directly recovered all the losses from the past two months, with prices returning to early June levels. The total market cap increased by 7.2% in one day, from 2.26 trillion to 2.45 trillion. Secondary altcoins showed a rare almost all-green performance. Before this wave, CZ posted a tweet implying he believes the bottom has been reached; Wang Chun even outright declared the slogan "the bear market is over." However, in my view, this is still more of a rebound than a reversal. The three bullish factors driving this market rise all have exaggerated elements behind them. The market rally is driven by speculation on expectations, not by what these positives can truly deliver. 1⃣ Ministry of Finance expanding long-term bond repurchases — this is the most direct and primary reason for this wave. The logic is straightforward: rising government bond yields increase interest expenses and widen the fiscal deficit, prompting the government to intervene with repurchases, causing yields to drop sharply. Government bond yields are the denominator in all valuation models; when the denominator falls, capital naturally spills over from bonds back into risk assets. Meanwhile, gold also rose back to 4500 — gold and Bitcoin are the two assets that most directly counteract currency depreciation. However, the Ministry of Finance's repurchase only raised the single repurchase limit; the quarterly total remains unchanged. Moreover, the funds come from issuing new short-term debt — selling short and buying long, essentially a swap.