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This round of the crypto market rally is essentially an extreme structural trend dominated by top core assets. Almost all incremental off-exchange funds are concentrated in established leaders like BTC and ETH, which have full consensus, as well as popular new coins with fresh explosive narratives. The vast majority of marginal coins without new stories or funding support receive not even a fraction of the liquidity dividend. The market indices have been rising steadily, with HYPE and LIT consecutively surging several times. Many retail investors are misled by the illusion of a broad rally and rush into unpopular small coins, fearing missing out on the trend. $KAITO just launched on the Aura platform and, according to past patterns, should have experienced a wave of positive price movement. However, the actual market is so quiet that active buy orders are almost nonexistent, and even basic buy support is completely missing. It has not caught any of the upward momentum of this market rally. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ As Bitcoin just broke $75,000, an altcoin doubled first When the afternoon market software popped up, I stared at that row of gains twice. Bitcoin had just stood above $75,000, and the whole market was still saying this wave was institutions leading Bitcoin, but the ones really running wild were the altcoins. ONG rose more than double in the past 24 hours, with its price jumping from less than $0.13 straight into the doubling zone, a gain of over 109%. Following closely were NEIRO up nearly 60%, COLLECT up 45%, ENA up nearly 40%, and PEOPLE, BOME, SPK all up around 30%. Those names that usually don’t get much mention suddenly all popped up today. What’s interesting is the rhythm. In the past two weeks, everyone was focused on whether Bitcoin could hold $75,000 and whether ETFs were still seeing continuous net inflows, as if altcoins were forgotten. Just past midnight today, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs combined net inflows exceeded $800 million, institutional funds didn’t withdraw, which gave altcoins the confidence to rise along. But once funds confirmed Bitcoin wouldn’t fall for now, the first to ignite were those small coins with the biggest volatility and easiest to overlook. The total crypto market cap touched $2.6 trillion today, up nearly 6% in one day, while Bitcoin’s market share still hovered at 58%, indicating altcoins captured a significant share of this increase. I checked on-chain data; the leaders in this rally are almost all the meme and old public chain tokens that had fallen the hardest before. They were hit hardest during Bitcoin’s early August correction and are now rebounding fiercely, a typical oversold rebound. The problem is these tokens’ rises rely on sentiment and capital rotation, and once Bitcoin chooses a new direction, they’ll fall faster than anyone else. A few veteran traders around me sounded hesitant. Some think this is the real start of altcoin season, the old script of Bitcoin rising first then altcoins following; others worry this is just capital overflow during Bitcoin’s sideways movement, and the faster the rise, the harder the fall might be later. For ONG, which doubled in a day, no one can say how much of the volume is real demand and how much is short-term capital trying to catch attention. If you happen to be holding some altcoins that have been dormant for a long time, you probably feel relieved today. But on the flip side, when people in the group start showing screenshots of altcoins doubling, that’s often when sentiment is hottest and the most likely time to get dumped. Whether this wave is the start of altcoin season or just fireworks while Bitcoin takes a breather, we’ll keep watching.BTC’s 7.92% advance looks more like a positioning reset than a broad risk-on confirmation. ETH and SOL are participating, but their smaller gains suggest capital is still concentrating in the most liquid asset rather than moving decisively down the curve. The FOMC split matters because it keeps the policy path less predictable. I would treat this rally as credible but not yet self-sustaining, with follow-through across major alts needed before calling it a broader regime shift. Just my read, not advice.Ripple pushes stablecoins into corporate credit business In the past, when we talked about Ripple, the first things that came to mind were the old phrases: cross-border payments, banking channels, XRP for settlement. But in the past couple of days, what it has done shows a clear shift in approach. On August 21, Ripple disclosed that it is supporting a new institutional credit fund. This fund involves the lending platform Clearpool and credit management firm Cicada Partners, planning to use Ripple's own stablecoin RLUSD on the XRP Ledger to directly provide working capital loans to fintech and payment companies. Simply put, Ripple used to treat XRP as a payment channel, but now it wants to turn RLUSD into revolving cash in the hands of enterprises. Borrowers receive RLUSD and repay in RLUSD, with the entire lending chain operating on Ripple's own blockchain. The division of labor is quite subtle. Cicada is responsible for finding borrowers, setting loan terms, and managing credit risk; Clearpool builds the technical framework for the lending pool; Ripple itself invests as a limited partner under the same terms as others, without underwriting bad debts. It does not act as the lender but controls issuing the coin, putting it on-chain, and driving traffic. This product has not yet launched on the XRP Ledger mainnet, and Ripple has not disclosed the exact investment amount. But the direction is clear: first, get RLUSD flowing between real enterprises, shifting the stablecoin use case from speculation and transfers to interest generation and credit. Behind this is actually a new strategy in the stablecoin war. In recent years, the competition was about who got listed on more exchanges and who had larger circulation. Now, leading players realize that just holding coins is not enough; the coin must be borrowed and lent on enterprise accounts to generate interest to truly lock in liquidity. Ripple’s move targets this credit creation position. RLUSD is a compliant stablecoin Ripple launched only at the end of 2024, starting much later than USDC and USDT. Now it bypasses pure circulation competition and directly targets the more lucrative enterprise credit market, carving out a differentiated path. The question remains whether enterprises are willing to borrow RLUSD, whether the interest rates are attractive, and whether on-chain lending can withstand bad debt risks. Ripple has laid the pipeline, but whether the funds flow through or detour depends on market acceptance. What do you think? Is this left-hand issuing coins and right-hand lending approach truly able to activate RLUSD, or is it just another case of much noise but little action?The US stock contracts have collectively cooled off—where did the money from Bitcoin's rebound go? Bitcoin has surged from 57,000 all the way back to 75,000, and the group chat is full of joy, as if the bear market never happened. But there's a counterintuitive data point: while crypto is broadly rebounding, the so-called US stock contracts that people usually trade on platforms like Binance, OKX, and Bitget have all seen their trading volumes drop, not rising with the market. RootData just released a list showing the top five platforms, and the picture is a bit awkward. Binance's 24-hour stock derivatives trading volume is about $21 billion, down 31% from the previous period; Hyperliquid is about $3.68 billion, also down 31%; Gate is even worse, dropping 43%; OKX fell 41%, and Bitget shrank 27%. All five major exchanges are green across the board, with no exceptions. Normally, when the market heats up, speculation should increase, but at the same time, the open interest in native crypto contracts is quietly piling up. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin contract open interest is about 735,000 contracts, equivalent to $55 billion, up 5.65% in one day; Ethereum contracts also increased by 5.17%. The money hasn't left the table; it just moved from the US stock trading table to the Bitcoin trading table. Behind this is actually the same group of people shifting positions. Since last year, Binance and Bitget have successively brought tokenized stocks like Tesla and Nvidia onto their contract platforms, hoping to retain retail investors who trade both crypto and US stocks. During a deep market drop, everyone moved their US stock positions in to hedge risks. Now with Bitcoin rebounding, US stock contracts have become a forgotten corner that no one wants to touch. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite of the recent narrative that crypto exchanges have become US stock night sessions. Back then, traditional assets were desperately trying to squeeze onto the blockchain; now, on-chain funds are having fun on their own and are too lazy to look up at US stocks. Liquidity is the most honest thing—wherever there is volatility and a story, it flows there, and no one can stop it. What’s more worth pondering is that these platforms initially pushed hard on stock derivatives to capture the traffic and stories from US stocks. Now that the traffic has returned to crypto itself, the platforms they built are cooling off, essentially making a wedding dress for others. For us, it’s also a reminder that the focus of so-called all-asset trading platforms has always followed the money. So don’t think that the cooling of US stock contracts means everyone has left the market. People are still here; they’ve just moved their bets elsewhere. The real suspense to watch next is whether, when Bitcoin stabilizes and US stocks throw out a big move again, this batch of money will rush back or not.The top Bitcoin treasury has just broken even, while the Ethereum treasury is still down by $5.8 billion The software company that even changed its name to a Bitcoin ticker finally caught a breather at the $68,000 price level. Data shows that as of August 16, Strategy holds over 840,000 bitcoins with an average purchase price of $75,385, while the market price was just above $75,428 at that time. Just a few dollars difference, and it has climbed out of the deep hole on paper for the first time. The person who vowed to turn the company into Bitcoin itself finally wasn’t choked by their own words this time. But in the same week, another treasury company heavily invested in Ethereum is still underwater. BitMine holds over 5.8 million ETH at a cost basis of $3,366. Even though Ethereum recently surged to $2,362, it still shows a floating loss of over $5.8 billion on the books. One is just emerging, the other still sunk dozens of meters deep. This stark contrast is eye-catching and enough to make those following the trend of buying treasury stocks nervous. Interestingly, the scripts for these two were originally reversed. Last year, Bitcoin crashed from a high of $126,000 down to $57,000, and Strategy’s position once lost so much that people wondered if the boss had lost his mind, considering it was the publicly listed company holding the most Bitcoin in the market. Unexpectedly, a few months later, it was BitMine, betting on Ethereum, that got grilled first. It entered when Ethereum was at a high, with the highest cost basis of all. Ethereum’s rebound has been strong, but it’s still far from its cost line, making it far from easy to break even. More troublesome is that treasury companies face monthly financial reports and shareholder scrutiny. If ETH doesn’t return to $3,300 soon, BitMine’s pressure will only increase. We often say institutional involvement is an anchor, but when the top treasury is still hovering around the cost line and the second largest treasury’s losses could cover half a listed company, who can still say this wave is an ironclad bull market? Bitcoin has reached key moving averages, and ETH is retracing, but the treasuries’ recovery progress is wildly uneven, showing that this round of money hasn’t flowed evenly into every corner—some are recovering, others are still bleeding. What’s more worth pondering is that these two are just a microcosm of the treasury company army. Over the past year, more and more companies have swapped their balance sheets for crypto. The money they brought from the stock market ultimately became buy orders on exchanges and an indirect entry point for retail holders. But if the treasuries themselves are still deeply underwater, retail investors buying treasury stocks are essentially standing guard for others’ unrealized losses. Everyone is comrades when prices rise, but the real test hasn’t come yet. Next, it depends on two things. Will Strategy continue to add positions after breaking even, or will it take profits and cash out, since it knows best how to maneuver near the cost line? And how long will BitMine have to endure to fill that $5.8 billion hole at the current rebound pace? What do you think—will those who break even first laugh last, or are they just lucky?Bitcoin surges to 75,000 but Americans have been selling for ninety-five consecutive days This is quite counterintuitive. Bitcoin has bounced from just over 60,000 all the way up to around 75,000, and more voices in social circles are calling it a bull run, yet a set of data quietly tells the opposite story. Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has been in negative territory for 95 consecutive days, meaning that the price quoted for the same coin in the U.S. has long been lower than Binance's. This negative premium has recently narrowed to -0.0221%, looking close to zero, but it hasn't broken this streak since May 19. Before this, the longest continuous negative premium record was 40 days earlier this year, and before that, about 30 days during last year's flash crash. This time it has more than doubled, setting a new historical record. In other words, while Bitcoin has rebounded several thousand points from the bottom, Americans have almost been selling at a discount throughout. What’s even more intriguing is the timing. During these ninety-five days, Bitcoin didn’t just fall unilaterally; it first consolidated at the bottom and then violently rebounded, squeezing billions of dollars worth of shorts just in the past two days. The price was clearly rising, yet Coinbase continued to show a persistent negative premium. Such divergence is rarely seen in previous bull markets. On-chain data also shows that between 61,800 and 63,100, over two million Bitcoins changed hands, forming a strong support zone, while resistance above is relatively light. Some might say that a negative premium only indicates heavy selling pressure on Coinbase and cannot be directly equated with institutional capital fleeing. That’s true, but it becomes interesting in the current context. On one side, traditional giants like BlackRock and Franklin are quietly positioning in tokenized assets; on the other, retail investors concentrated on Coinbase are continuously selling at a discount. These two groups seem to be giving completely different answers to the same question. Even the whale who shouted about opening 10x short positions has increased their short exposure to $143 million during this rebound and is currently at a floating loss. There’s another detail many have overlooked. Coinbase’s negative premium is often regarded as a thermometer of U.S. institutional sentiment because it mainly involves compliant funds. Now this thermometer has stayed cool, never turning positive even as Bitcoin hit new highs in this rebound. This suggests that those truly bottom-fishing might be more from offshore markets and the newly entered traditional asset managers, rather than domestic U.S. retail investors. This is completely the opposite of the scene half a year ago when U.S. retail investors led the charge. So the question arises: Is this rebound a genuine consensus backed by real money, or are some people just enjoying the hype while others quietly exit? Is your position aligned with the buying force, or have you quietly become the object of someone else’s selling?CFTC Chairman Lays Down the Law Even If the Bill Fails CFTC Chairman Selig made his position clear this time. At the inaugural meeting of the Innovation Advisory Committee, he presented a new roadmap for the financial frontier: the preferred regulatory approach for crypto is the CLARITY Act, but if Congress continues to delay, the CFTC will use its existing authority to set rules on its own. In other words, whether legislation passes or not, he intends to regulate the crypto market structure himself. He also identified three new battlegrounds: crypto assets, prediction markets, and the computing power market. He said computing power is the most important commodity of this era, and public consultation on AI computing power futures has already begun. This aligns with his recent statement that even if the CLARITY Act fails, the crypto industry will still have rules. The message is straightforward: don’t expect the regulatory vacuum to last long. It will either be clear rules from Congress or implicit rules set by the CFTC—one of the two. In terms of concrete actions, the CFTC is evaluating a new type of regulated platform called the crypto asset market, which essentially opens a compliance channel within the existing framework for legitimate trading. This is a complete reversal from the approach of issuing subpoenas and enforcement actions in previous years. Regulation is finally shifting from pushing people away to building a stage. For us, the signal is twofold. On the positive side, regulation is moving from uncertain enforcement to an executable compliance entry point, giving institutional capital more confidence to enter. On the downside, how the rules are written and how strict they are is controlled by regulators, not the market. The prediction market line is also worth watching. The CFTC has put event contract rulemaking on the agenda, and with NYSE parent company ICE discussing increasing its stake in Polymarket, compliance in this area may come faster than expected. Once computing power futures are launched, the boundary between AI and crypto will blur further, and capital will flow back and forth between the two markets. For contract traders, regulation linking crypto, AI, and computing power will make market correlations more complex; just relying on crypto market logic won’t be enough. Ultimately, the underlying tone of this market cycle is regulatory easing combined with improved liquidity expectations. Selig’s remarks are like a reassurance pill for the market but also a reminder that the reins are always in the regulators’ hands. Well-written rules can sustain a bull market; poorly written rules can turn positive momentum into negative in an instant. Do you think the CFTC’s proactive move is a reassurance for the market or another sword hanging overhead?People shouting about the super cycle are selling their stocks themselves A few days ago, Robinhood's CEO said on camera that we are at the beginning of a super cycle, and the golden age of crypto has just begun. No sooner had he spoken than insiders started selling stocks. SEC filings clearly show that Robinhood's CFO Verma Shiv sold 3,982 shares at an average price of $95.07 on August 17, cashing out about $378,600, reducing his holdings to 51,963 shares. Director Bhatt Baiju acted earlier, selling 50,317 shares at $96.8 on August 14, taking away about $4.87 million. Together, they reduced holdings by over $5.25 million in three days. This is interesting. The company externally talks about a crypto bull market, retail investor return, and a super cycle, while internal executives quietly cash out. Selling shares doesn’t necessarily mean bearishness; it’s normal for executives to sell some stock at their own pace, but the timing is so coincidental and right after the CEO’s bullish statements that it inevitably raises questions. Robinhood has been one of the most direct entry points for crypto retail investors in recent years. The CEO’s bullish remarks alone can stir up FOMO in groups. But when real money moves contradict the bullish talk, experienced players have seen this kind of contrast many times. Looking back, the pattern of talking bullish while reducing holdings was common in the last cycle too. Project founders would tweet about holding long-term while quietly transferring unlocked tokens to exchanges, ultimately trapping trusting retail investors. Narratives can be fabricated, but on-chain data and filings don’t lie. What’s more intriguing is the amount itself. $5.25 million isn’t a huge sum for a company worth tens of billions, but the real signal is not how much was sold, but the timing—right when the bull market narrative is loudest. Insiders voting with their feet is often more honest than their words. For ordinary players like us, the value of this is not to judge whether Robinhood is good or bad, but to establish our own discipline. When big players shout about a cycle, first check if they have been selling recently before deciding to follow. If you engrave this in your mind, you can avoid many pitfalls. I’m not advising you to run with them. Just a reminder: when you hear big players shouting about a cycle, take a quick look at what their accounts are doing. The most dangerous thing in a bull market is taking others’ marketing talk as your own trading basis. Would you rather trust their words or their sell orders? Next time you see a CEO flaunting a bull market, remember to check if they sold last month. Don’t just listen to stories; look at the books. The books are much more honest than speeches.2.7 billion short positions liquidated, but institutions say this rally is too early My account finally turned green this week. BTC broke through $75,000, hitting a three-month high, and the group chat was full of celebrations. But watching Coinglass data, I felt a bit uneasy. On Wednesday's surge alone, over $2.75 billion worth of BTC shorts were liquidated. In the past 24 hours, another $783 million in positions were liquidated, of which $748 million were shorts. In other words, this rally was largely driven by short-sellers being cornered and forced to close their positions, not by new money buying in with real capital. Analyst Shawn Young poured cold water on this. He said the market is overestimating the impact of the US Treasury's small-scale repo operations; the bond market changes mainly forced shorts to cover, not improved BTC's fundamentals. US Treasuries are still competing with Bitcoin for marginal funds, so calling a breakthrough of $70,000 premature. On-chain data actually provides ammunition for both bulls and bears. Analyst Ali Charts pointed out that BTC has formed a new strong support between $61,849 and $63,111, where over 2 million BTC changed hands. Looking up, $83,300 to $84,569 is another dense trading zone, with about 1 million BTC waiting to break even. There is a floor below and a wall above. Dominick John from Zeus Research agrees with this view. Short-term short liquidations can push prices further, but once the forced buying power is exhausted, the price will depend on real spot buying, liquidity conditions, and macro fundamentals. Whether ETF funds continue to flow in net is the real indicator to watch now. The market position is actually very delicate. The $70,000 to $72,000 range has become a new zone for confirming direction; holding above it could see $75,000. But if BTC falls back below $68,000 to $69,000 and ETH loses $2,200, beware that this rally was mainly amplified by short liquidations. The bigger constraint is the Fed; several members in the July minutes believe inflation still needs to rise, and the tightening door is not closed. This rebound is awkward. Everyone wants to confirm if the bull market is back, but the driver of the rise is short covering, not incremental funds. Once the liquidation fuel runs out, the market will immediately expose a question: how much new money is willing to buy above $70,000? I think ordinary players should seriously consider one thing: whether the gains in your account this week are from correctly predicting the direction or simply being pushed up by short squeezes. Whether new money comes in or not will determine how far this rally can go. Did you recover this week, or were you left behind?A mysterious address quietly accumulating millions of dollars in Bitcoin long positions In the early morning on-chain monitoring, an address starting with 0xa0 caught attention. In the past few weeks, it neither chased the rally nor issued calls, but slowly accumulated Bitcoin long positions one by one. From the order records, this address built positions at prices ranging from $53,653 to $66,667, with several large orders of 132 BTC each appearing in between. After the upward trend around August 20 was confirmed, it quietly amassed a perpetual long position worth about $9.9 million, with an average entry price of $68,785, currently floating a profit of about $760,000. Interestingly, it barely touched ETH, SOL, or other popular altcoins, putting all its funds on Bitcoin. This level of concentration doesn’t look like casual retail trading but more like a premeditated trade based on a macro liquidity improvement judgment. There are earlier clues as well. This address tried to position in the XYZ100 index in early August, repeatedly adjusting its holdings, as if testing the rhythm with small positions. Only when the market really started moving did it fully load up on Bitcoin positions. Such patience is rare in today’s noisy market. At the same time, US regulatory expectations are also loosening. The Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases, the SEC introduced new crypto regulatory proposals, and policy signals have been coming one after another, all aligning with its narrative. However, the problem is that changes in the bond market mostly force short sellers to cover rather than genuinely improving Bitcoin’s fundamentals. This also explains why it is completely different from the recent flashy whales. Some show their orders and shout targets, some jump back and forth between longs and shorts, but this address has been silent from start to finish, never appearing on social platforms. On-chain, these silent accumulation addresses are always more worth watching than loud influencers shouting calls every day. They don’t talk or show orders; they just arrange their chips at their own pace, waiting for the market to come to them. By the time most of us react, the price is often no longer where it was. What really matters is the contrast. Just these past two days, another famous whale kept opening shorts repeatedly, getting shaken out back and forth, losing on both long and short sides. Meanwhile, this silent address only took one direction from start to finish, and just happened to bet right before the turning point. This level of early positioning—are they betting on a macro recovery or simply riding the tailwind of this short squeeze? Bitcoin’s surge from $64,000 to over $72,000 was largely driven by a short squeeze. How much real cash spot buying there is, no one can say for sure now. When we see such a “god-level” address, our first reaction is often to follow, but their cost basis is between $50,000 and $60,000. If we only rush in after $70,000, our role might be completely different. Is this rebound really what you and I expected before?A chain that claims to be decentralized but freezes itself A message exploded in the community early this morning. MANTRA Chain officially announced that an incident affecting on-chain operations occurred, and the team proactively paused the entire chain as a precaution. All interfaces and transactions are completely frozen; users cannot deposit or withdraw funds temporarily. In short, a public chain that focuses on RWA, constantly talks about asset tokenization and compliance narratives, pressed the pause button itself. This scene is surreal enough. Usually, projects like this love to talk about decentralization, but when trouble comes, the decision power still rests in the hands of a few team members. What’s most unsettling is the statement that the root cause is still unconfirmed. The team neither clarified what exactly happened nor provided a recovery timeline. Everything on the chain is frozen now; users don’t know how long they have to wait or the status of their assets. One announcement, and the entire network is at a standstill. It’s not unusual for project teams to proactively pause the chain; Solana was repeatedly criticized in its early days for frequent outages. But every pause exposes the same issue: users think holding private keys means security, but once the chain stops processing transactions, the so-called assets are just numbers on a ledger—if they can’t move, they can’t move. This kind of event is the best test of a project’s quality. People often talk about self-custody and on-chain transparency, but when trouble hits, whether the chain stops or when it resumes is entirely up to the project team. Whether you see it as responsible prevention or a sign that on-chain governance is fragile, everyone has their own judgment. What’s more subtle is the timing. The market just went through an epic short squeeze, with Bitcoin surging to 75,000, and overall market sentiment recovering. Suddenly, a chain halts at such a moment—it’s hard not to speculate. Is there an undisclosed technical or security issue, or is something being suppressed in advance? For a project that constantly emphasizes institutional-grade and compliance narratives, this handling only amplifies external doubts. The chain can stop, but once trust stops, it’s not so easy to restart. What ordinary people can do is actually very limited. If you have money in such projects, the most important thing now is not the price but when the official second report will come and what the root cause really is. The chain can be restored, but trust may not. What do you think about a chain freezing itself—is it prudent or a danger signal? This round of Bitcoin's violent rebound: not a single positive factor, but the result of the resonance of three forces In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has experienced the strongest recovery rally this year. Bitcoin quickly broke through the $70,000 mark from the $64,000 range, and Ethereum surged nearly 19% in one day, approaching $2,300. Behind this extreme rally, the market paid a very high leverage price: over 180,000 liquidations occurred within 24 hours, with a total network liquidation scale reaching $3.2 billion. Many attribute this surge to a single piece of news, but the real core is the simultaneous resonance of three factors: macro liquidity recovery + policy expectation reversal + market structure short squeeze, completing a very strong trend repair. 1. Macro foundation: US Treasury supports long-term rates, global risk asset valuations are repriced The underlying logic that triggered this rally first came from a major move by the US Treasury. On August 19, the US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchase operations, doubling the single repurchase limit for 10–30 year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion, officially implemented on September 9, specifically easing the liquidity shortage and runaway yield rise of long-term bonds. Before this, the 30-year US Treasury yield had surged to a high of 5.337%, continuously suppressing global high-valuation risk assets. After the policy was implemented, long-term yields quickly fell back to around 5.19%, directly breaking the pricing shackles of "high interest rates suppressing risk assets." A decline in risk-free rates means a systemic increase in risk appetite. Gold surged $125 in one day, and crypto assets, which are most sensitive to liquidity and interest rates, were the first to complete valuation repair, with Bitcoin rapidly breaking through from $64,000 to $70,000. This time the market understood the key signal: the US Treasury actively supports long-term bonds, long-term rates have shown a hidden peak, and macro liquidity expectations are officially marginally easing. 2. Policy sentiment: US regulatory attitude turning point, industry certainty significantly returning If macro is the foundation, then the top-level US policy attitude is the fuse igniting the rally. Trump held a focused meeting at the White House with executives from leading crypto companies including Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, Chainlink, clearly urging Congress to accelerate the passage of the CLARITY Act. This is the most important emotional turning point of this rally: the core anxiety of the market over the past year was never about lack of money, but regulatory uncertainty. Once the bill is passed, it will completely clarify the compliance boundaries of digital assets and end the industry's long-term ambiguous game. At the same time, institutional expectations continue to heat up. Standard Chartered directly updated its view: Treasury support for long bonds and regulatory friendliness are the core positive narratives for Bitcoin, maintaining a year-end target forecast of $100,000. The shift in top-level attitude has completely reversed the market's pessimistic pricing. 3. Trading structure: six months of short accumulation triggers extreme short squeeze Macro + policy provided the reasons for the rise, but the short-term unexpected surge was entirely driven by position structure. Over the past six months, Bitcoin has been oscillating narrowly around the $60,000 range, with a consensus bearish sentiment accumulating and a massive amount of short leverage positions settled in the futures market. When the price broke through a key resistance level, it triggered a programmed chain of liquidations: price rise → short stop-loss liquidation → passive buying influx → further price push, forming a positive feedback short squeeze spiral. The data is most intuitive: $1.44 billion in short liquidations completed within one hour, quickly clearing the weak short positions accumulated over six months. This is also the core reason why this rally's speed and strength far exceed ordinary positive rallies. Complete rally transmission chain review Treasury supports long bonds → long-term rates quickly decline → global liquidity expectations improve → risk asset valuations repair → crypto spot buying warms + derivatives shorts concentrated liquidation → breakout main rally Key points to watch going forward This rally was initially driven by leverage short squeeze, belonging to an emotional and position repair rally. Whether the rally can upgrade from a "short-term rebound" to a "trend reversal" depends on two core validation indicators: 1. Whether Bitcoin spot ETFs can form sustained net inflows to replace short-term leveraged funds; 2. Whether US Treasury yields can maintain a downward trend and macro easing expectations remain stable. Only with spot funds taking over and a stable macro environment can this breakout truly hold and become the starting point of a new trend rally. ⚠️ Market review only, does not constitute any investment advice $BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Regulatory deadline locked on September 15, Coinbase boss speaks out Brian Armstrong, the boss of Coinbase, dropped a line on X last night, giving the market a concrete timeline for the long-suspended uncertainty. He said that regardless of the path taken, clarity on U.S. crypto regulation seems imminent, and it could come as early as mid-September. He didn’t give a vague expectation but two quite specific scenarios. The first path is that the U.S. Senate secures over sixty votes on September 15 to actually pass the relevant bill. The second path is that the CFTC and SEC jointly issue a new set of rules on September 16, directly clarifying the regulatory framework. Two consecutive days, clearly aiming to cut uncertainty within this window. This sense of urgency is somewhat unusual. In recent years, U.S. crypto legislation has been stuck in back-and-forth struggles between the two chambers of Congress. What practitioners fear most has never been strict rules, but simply not knowing what the rules will look like. Armstrong daringly states a clear date this time, indirectly indicating that insiders in the industry have likely received some internal signals; otherwise, no one would dare to endorse a specific regulatory date. What everyone is really waiting for is how the long-delayed market structure bill will draw the line—specifically, which tokens fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction. Until that line is defined, exchanges listing tokens, custody, and staking all feel like walking a tightrope. Coinbase has been one of the most active lobbyists behind the scenes in recent years, investing significant political capital. Now making the timeline explicit seems more like pushing forward the chips they’ve already put on the table. But betting on September also has its costs. For the Senate to gather sixty votes means they must cross party lines and secure enough members, and any procedural hurdle could delay the timeline. And for the two regulatory agencies to jointly issue rules sounds fast, but before actual implementation, the market will still speculate repeatedly on the wording. Historically, such promises have been delayed more than once. What’s even more intriguing is the timing. Bitcoin just surged past 72,000, and the whole market is looking for reasons to keep rising. Regulatory clarity is naturally one of the strongest narratives. Armstrong choosing this moment to speak out is hard to say is just a coincidence. For those of us holding positions, the key takeaway from this news isn’t that regulation will come, but what if it doesn’t. As long as one of the two September checkpoints fails, the suspended certainty will turn into even greater uncertainty. Now you have to ask yourself: is regulation the main support or the sword hanging overhead that hasn’t fallen yet? The Treasury is pumping money to suppress long-term bonds, but Goldman Sachs says the direction can't be changed This week, the Treasury made a big move by at least doubling the scale of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases, raising the single-round cap from $2 billion to $4 billion and above, effective September 9. The meaning is straightforward: to step in and support long-term interest rates, preventing them from soaring further, so that the debt snowball doesn't crush the market, while also giving the bond market some reassurance. Once the news broke, the dollar weakened, and Bitcoin followed suit, climbing up accordingly. The logic chain is clear: when U.S. Treasury yields go down, money flows into risk assets like BTC, which are scarce assets not dependent on government debt expansion. But Goldman Sachs poured cold water on this. They said this round of operations is similar to precedents in 1961 and 2011, when historically yields were only suppressed by 10 to 20 basis points. This time, relying on repurchases plus adjusting issuance terms, it might be possible to suppress yields by 20 to 40 basis points temporarily. However, the root cause of rising long-term rates remains untouched: the fiscal deficit is still expanding, inflation remains uncertain and recurring, plus AI building data centers and reindustrialization are voraciously consuming capital. The real interest rate baseline is moving upward, so where purchasing power flows is quite clear. This is quite contradictory. In the short term, it's positive for us; yields dropping eases sentiment, and assets like Bitcoin benefit most from liquidity expectations, so they've rallied enthusiastically these days, squeezing shorts hard. But Goldman Sachs warns that while yields can be suppressed temporarily, they can't be suppressed forever. The trend of more expensive capital is irreversible. The Treasury's repurchases only postpone the problem. If inflation rises again, long-term rates will have to go up, and risk assets will need to be repriced. In terms of strategy, don't treat this as the starting gun for a one-sided bull market. In the short term, you can ride the liquidity easing, but don't load your positions too heavily. If the dollar strengthens again or the Fed turns hawkish, a pullback will come quickly, and high leverage will be dangerous. In the long run, the story of scarce assets remains, but the path must be taken step by step. Don't get carried away by a single day's gains, and don't throw in money beyond your disposable funds due to emotional hype—that kind of operation is most likely to be cleared out by a rebound. Looking at the bigger picture, U.S. Treasury yields are the master switch for pricing all risk assets right now. When yields ease, crypto gets a bit of life; when yields rise, even the strongest narratives have to bow. So scanning U.S. Treasury and dollar index data before market open every day is much more practical than staring at group chat trade calls—it helps avoid emotional traps and save on tuition fees. So, do you think this round of U.S. Treasury repurchases can really support the market, or is it just buying a buffer for the decline? Strategy has recovered its losses while peers remain deeply stuck with $5.8 billion in losses Two coin-hoarding companies: one just resurfaced, the other still in deep water. The ledgers laid out show a stark contrast. Data shows that as of August 16, Strategy holds 840,447 BTC at an average cost of $75,385. With BTC's current price surpassing $75,428, this company has finally broken even, effectively turning around after nearly a year of struggle, having suffered losses just as severe as retail investors in the previous downturn. On the other hand, BitMine holds 5.815 million ETH at a cost of $3,366, but the current price is only $2,362. Although the unrealized loss has narrowed compared to before, it remains stuck in a deep hole of $5.836 billion, still far from the surface. Both followed a strategy of buying the dip, but the outcomes differ greatly. Simply put, it’s about the timing of entry and the asset’s volatility. Strategy is heavily weighted in BTC, which led the recent rebound and recovered first, with a clean portfolio structure; BitMine is weighted in ETH, which has also risen but is still far below its cost basis. To break even, ETH needs a much stronger rally, requiring a significant relative gain over BTC to have a chance. For us, these two cases serve as a live textbook. Institutions don’t just buy and win effortlessly. BitMine’s huge losses show that long-term holding still involves enduring drawdowns. A $5.8 billion hole can’t be filled by just chanting long-termism; real unrealized losses don’t lie. Don’t assume coin hoarding is a no-brainer profit just because Strategy broke even. It also took a long beating before recovering, repeatedly testing the break-even line—it’s not inherently stable. In the short term, Strategy breaking even means some holders might take profits, causing minor selling pressure, but after selling, they’ll be lighter and more agile. Institutional overall recovery will improve market risk appetite, potentially boosting ETH’s catch-up rally since both share the coin-hoarding narrative and capital tends to spill over from profitable effects. The long-term logic remains unchanged: BTC’s scarcity story still stands, but timing must be managed carefully. Don’t get thrown off by institutional moves—chasing highs after others break even is counterproductive. As for BitMine, its ETH holdings have no other play besides waiting for the market. There’s no new narrative or extra cash flow to support it; it relies purely on price recovery to break even. This passive situation is completely different from Strategy’s active portfolio adjustments. When ordinary investors look at institutional holdings, don’t just focus on the break-even number. Pay attention to what they bought, their cost basis, and whether there’s room to maneuver. Understand these before deciding whether to follow. Who do you think will fully turn positive first, BTC or ETH? A $400 million short squeeze exploded in 4 hours after a two-day surge The green in accounts over the past two days was forcibly filled by shorts getting liquidated. According to Coinglass data, $446 million was liquidated across the network in the past 4 hours, with shorts accounting for $425 million and longs only $21 million, a heavily one-sided ratio, almost entirely squeezed out by a single bullish candle. The past 24 hours were even more extreme, with 137,000 people liquidated globally, totaling $1.234 billion. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid's BTC-USD, a single $25.1387 million position wiped out instantly—one account worth several lifetimes for an average person. This squeeze came fiercely, rooted in Bitcoin’s 16% rally over two days. Many were still placing short orders at high levels betting on a pullback, but the market didn’t turn back, triggering stop-loss orders in a chain reaction, transferring shorts’ money directly into longs’ pockets. For trend followers like us, this kind of sharp rally is the most feared; if your position isn’t set properly, you can easily get thrown off. Watching an account go from unrealized profit to liquidation in an instant is brutal—the higher the leverage, the more devastating the loss, with margin calls triggering immediate forced liquidation. The market impact is direct. Forced liquidation of short positions means passive buying, which in turn pushes prices higher, creating a stampede feedback loop, causing the price to rise quickly and sharply. Short-term selling pressure above is actually lighter, but many long positions are bloodied chips that could flip at any time. The key focus now is whether Bitcoin can hold the 74,000 level; if it stabilizes there, this squeeze can be considered over. If not, a retracement is likely to wash out those chasing the highs. Resistance lies around previous trapped positions, where many are waiting to break even or take profits. On-chain data shows this rally is mainly driven by short covering rather than new spot buying, meaning the quality of the rise is diluted. Once the short covering force is exhausted, sustaining the rally by momentum alone will be difficult. So don’t be fooled by the screen full of green thinking the trend has fully reversed; transaction structure and capital flow are more honest signals. Take the calls in the chat group with a grain of salt. Looking longer term, this kind of stampede liquidation often signals a mid-trend phase, not a top. Historically, similar situations have been followed by another extension wave, but the process is always volatile, with retracements and spikes that shake confidence. If you have unrealized profits, don’t get cocky; if you haven’t entered yet, don’t rush to chase. Wait for a retracement to the moving average or average cost line for a safer entry. It’s better to earn less than to catch a falling knife. Use only a small portion of your spare funds for positions, and don’t let the idea of overnight riches cloud your judgment. Did your short positions hold through this squeeze, or were you already liquidated and forced out?This is not a joke, but a market rule repeatedly tested: in every sentiment cycle, DOGE's movements often occur earlier and more aggressively than the rally of mainstream coins, effectively acting as the market's "risk appetite thermometer." Why DOGE? Because its value anchor is not in technical narratives or ecological applications, but almost purely on emotion and attention. People buying DOGE are not buying fundamentals, but the expectation that "everyone wants to buy." This means its price elasticity follows retail investors' wallets completely—institutions won't heavily hold it, market makers won't support it, and every big bullish candle is a vote of real investor sentiment. So when DOGE moves, it means the most hesitant and latest investors outside the market are already losing their patience. Using it as a metric makes the logic very clear. The rise of mainstream coins may just be driven by institutional allocation, but it doesn't prove whether retail investors have returned; And when $DOGE, DOGE trading volume, and DOGE search heat all rise together, it means incremental retail funds are truly entering the market—this is the most crucial link in a bull market. In other words, a BTC breakout is a "signal flare," while DOGE's takeoff is a "confirmation letter." But this thermometer is also a double-edged sword. Historically, DOGE's extreme excitement often appears in the middle to late stages of market rallies. By the time the market starts talking about DOGE, sentiment is often approaching the peak of overheating. So it serves both as a bull market confirmation signal and as a warning sign of a stage top. For traders, rather than chasing DOGE high,A command to send dollars directly to your email In the early hours of yesterday, a platform called AllScale quietly launched a command-line tool. You just need to type one command in the terminal to send a stablecoin to any email address, and the recipient doesn't even need to register or have a wallet. The recipient just clicks the link, and the money is in their hands. This is quite striking in the current context. Over the past week, everyone has been talking about how AI is siphoning liquidity from crypto, how Nvidia is spending big to acquire teams, and how Bitcoin has surged to 75,000 riding on US debt buybacks. The default assumption is that AI and crypto are two camps competing for the same pie. But AllScale has erased the boundary between these two camps. It calls itself a self-custodied stablecoin digital bank, and this tool is already on npm under the package name @allscale/cli. As long as your environment can run shell, you can install and use it. Its operation is straightforward. On the receiving end, you send a command with the recipient's email and amount, and the system generates a money-bearing claim link supporting USDT or USDC, with no wallet address required from the recipient. On the paying end, it's even easier: you just approve a one-time quota, and then the script can run unattended, automatically creating links and funding payments each time. It also has a crucial engineering design: idempotency, so failed tasks won't cause duplicate payments. In other words, a program running on a server can now collect money, pay money, and reconcile accounts by itself, with no human supervision needed. This perfectly hits the hottest trend recently. Not long ago, AWS's Bedrock enabled AI agents to make micro-payments directly using USDC via the x402 protocol; Stripe just acquired BVNK to integrate stablecoins into its settlement network; Elon Musk's X also wants to use USDC to pay creators. Everyone says AI will need to spend money, but mostly it's still a playground for big companies. AllScale has turned this capability into an installable package anyone can use, returning standard data formats and a bunch of exit codes that machines can directly interpret for branching logic. The interesting part is this: while we are still debating whether crypto will be siphoned off by AI capital, AI has quietly made crypto payments its own foundation. Stablecoins, once only touched by speculators, have now become infrastructure callable with a single command. So here’s the question. When money can flow so easily from one program to another, are the mnemonic phrases we hold now more secure, or more dangerous?Bitcoin's market cap quietly surpasses Meta to take the 13th spot globally This morning, there was a subtle scene. Bitcoin's market cap quietly climbed to $1.5 trillion, pushing the social media giant Meta down and taking the 13th seat on the global asset market cap leaderboard. Ethereum hasn't been idle either, with its market cap rising to over $280 billion, surpassing Dell to rank 72nd. Something supported purely by code and consensus has grown larger than Zuckerberg's company—no one would have believed this a few years ago. You might not grasp what $1.5 trillion represents. Globally, only gold, a few oil giants, and companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia rank above it. A network with no CEO, no headquarters, and no one who can shut it down now sits at the same table as the hardest assets on Earth. This kind of event would be considered abnormal in any textbook. There's a hidden twist in this surge. In the past four hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $446 million, with short positions accounting for $425 million—meaning a bunch of short sellers were directly wiped out. The more crowded the shorts, the stronger the rebound; this market specializes in defying all doubts. Another detail worth pondering: Coinbase CEO Armstrong said today that clear U.S. crypto regulations might be finalized by mid-September, either with the Senate passing a bill with over 60 votes or the CFTC and SEC jointly issuing new rules. Once implemented, Bitcoin will officially be welcomed from the wild west into the mainstream hall. A few months ago, who would have thought mainstream institutions would even look at it seriously? The contrast is actually in the current atmosphere. In just two days, Bitcoin has risen over 16%, reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time since last November. The community is jubilant, some calling it the eve of a bull market, sharing their profits nonstop. But on the other side, the Federal Reserve is still in turmoil over whether to raise interest rates—Musallam wants to hike, Daly says hold on, the market foundation isn't that solid. At its core, the narrative has changed. People used to treat it as a speculative asset; now BlackRock clients swept up $120 million worth of Ethereum in two hours, and pension funds are quietly entering. Its asset attributes are being revalued. Bitcoin's market cap surpassing a trillion-dollar tech giant is superficially a price increase but essentially a change in identity. What I'm more curious about is another matter. Now that Bitcoin's scale rivals the world's top companies, can it still maintain that wild, high-profit growth? Or once fully integrated into traditional finance, will its most captivating wildness disappear? This is more worth discussing than today's ranking.Traditional futures giant openly challenges market newcomer Yesterday at the CFTC roundtable in Washington, a rather dramatic scene unfolded. Terry Duffy, the head of the world's largest futures exchange CME, openly confronted Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of the prediction market platform Kalshi, in front of a room full of regulators and industry peers. Duffy's attack was direct. He first questioned whether prediction markets undergo regulatory scrutiny as rigorous as that of formal exchanges, then sarcastically mocked Kalshi's hot dog eating contest contracts, and dropped a harsh remark saying CME is not the carnival barker outside the circus. The implication was clear: you newcomers don't belong on the big stage. Simply put, CME relies on centuries of trust and licenses, while prediction markets are built on blockchain transparency and grassroots traffic—two fundamentally conflicting logics. Lara did not back down. She responded straightforwardly, saying that traditional markets and exchanges themselves harbor risks, and regulation should focus on identifying and controlling those risks rather than just targeting newcomers. The tension between the two sides was palpable. Later, DraftKings' CEO stepped in to mediate, urging both parties to stop attacking each other's business models. Ultimately, the dispute is not just about words but about who will hold the future financial narrative. Behind this verbal clash is a battle between old and new forces fighting over the same territory. Prediction markets have exploded in recent years, with Kalshi and Polymarket turning sports, elections, and various real-world events into bettable contracts, gradually eroding the traffic and narrative of traditional exchanges. Established giants like CME cannot sit still and thus openly exposed the conflict at the regulatory meeting. Don't underestimate this business: just political election contracts alone saw billions of dollars wagered on-chain last year, and traditional brokers are certainly anxious. What’s more delicate is that regulatory attitudes themselves are divided. A few days ago, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to halt certain contracts, but the CFTC then allowed Kalshi to continue trading, directly defying New York state's blockade. Between federal and state authorities, and between traditional and crypto camps, it’s still undecided who holds the final say. This tug-of-war also shows that prediction markets have grown too big for traditional powers to ignore. Whoever first secures the rule-making authority will control the next generation of financial gateways. So this quarrel, on the surface, is just some sharp words, but at its root, it is an instinctive counterattack by the old financial order against on-chain prediction markets. Whether the parties will escalate or regulators will provide clarity remains to be seen.Let's talk about why BTC has surged recently? This BTC surge is heavily catalyzed by U.S. Treasury bonds. But it's not a simple "U.S. bonds fall → BTC rises"; the real logic is: The U.S. Treasury starts actively repurchasing long-term bonds → expectations of declining long-term Treasury yields → weaker dollar → marginal easing of financial conditions → non-sovereign assets like BTC/gold get repriced. This logic has already been directly traded by the market these days. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced increasing the scale of long-term bond repurchases from about $2 billion each time to $4 billion. After the news, long-term Treasury yields dropped about 10 basis points, the dollar weakened, and BTC and gold rose simultaneously. The Treasury's sudden increase in long-term bond repurchases essentially sends a signal to the market: The U.S. government does not want long-term interest rates to continue spiraling out of control. So the market started trading on "long-term rates peaking/financial conditions improving." More importantly: the dollar is also falling. This is actually what I consider a more important part of this BTC rally. Currently, the dollar index has dropped to around 98.7, hitting a three-month low. So now there is a very typical combination: Long-term U.S. Treasury yields ↓ + DXY ↓ + BTC ↑ + Gold ↑ This is much more significant than BTC rising alone. Because it shows the market is not trading a typical crypto narrative, but rather: The actual attractiveness of dollar assets is declining. Hence, gold and BTC are strengthening simultaneously. Short term: very bullish for BTC. Long term: it cannot yet be directly interpreted as "the Fed starting to ease." If the 10-year Treasury yield continues to break below 4.7%, BTC may rise further DeFi single-day inflow up 9%, TVL breaks $83.3 billion On-chain data unexpectedly gave a strong boost. DeFi's total locked value surged 9.15% in one day, reaching $83.3 billion, and DEX trading volume exceeded $10 billion for the first time in two months. After nearly a year of bearish on-chain conditions, it feels like the market is catching its breath. Behind the numbers are people. TVL basically represents the money locked in protocols; a 9% increase means tens of billions of dollars flowed back into lending, trading, and staking contracts within a single day. The DEX volume breaking $10 billion is even more critical, indicating that it's not just whales arbitraging but genuine retail investors actively trading on-chain. The last time we saw this kind of heat was in Q4 last year, with lending and swapping as the first sectors to see capital inflows. Don't rush to conclude that the bull market is back. This surge is highly synchronized with Bitcoin's 16% rise over two days, basically driven by the overall market beta, not a new engine within DeFi itself. On Hyperliquid, whale positions have already piled up to $6.028 billion, with a long-short ratio of 0.94, nearly balanced, showing leveraged funds are re-entering but without a clear directional bias. Meanwhile, Optimism DAO recently had a huge dispute over the ownership of 547 million OP tokens, with the core team reallocating 24% of the circulating supply from airdrops to a strategic fund; the community governance issues are far from resolved. The on-chain recovery is real, but foundational cracks remain unpatched, which is the area to watch closely. That said, a rise in TVL doesn't necessarily mean token prices will increase. Many protocol revenues and token holders remain decoupled; just because more value is locked doesn't mean blind buying is wise. What truly benefits holders are real cash flows like buybacks and dividends, not just on-paper numbers. For traders, this data has two interpretations. In the short term, TVL and DEX volume recovery usually lead protocol token sentiment, supporting established tokens like UNI and AAVE in the near term. But on-chain markets are fast-moving; chasing after a big green candle risks getting trapped, and waiting for a pullback before entering is safer. In the long run, DeFi's fundamentals are strengthening. RWA (Real World Assets) bring government bonds and stocks on-chain, stablecoin settlements are being adopted by traditional giants like Mastercard, and tokenized assets are no longer just empty talk. Regulation has shifted from crackdown to framework establishment, with the SEC granting exemptions for financing under $5 million. The foundation is indeed more solid than the last bull cycle. Of course, don't get carried away; on-chain recovery is just that, recovery, and position management remains key—don't mistake a rebound for strength. This $83.3 billion could be the start of a reversal or just a breather following the broader market. Have you made any moves on-chain recently? Samsung's biggest shareholder return plan in history is here! Is it a positive or a disappointment? Samsung has finally officially announced the long-rumored shareholder return plan. It is expected to return 90 trillion to 110 trillion KRW to shareholders by 2026, approximately $79 billion, which accounts for half of its free cash flow. The figures set a record in South Korea. In Q3 alone, cash dividends were 30 trillion KRW, and there will be a 15 trillion KRW buyback used for employee compensation. This is real cash. However, personally, I think this basically meets expectations with no big surprises. The market had previously expected around 100 trillion KRW, and now it falls within this range, representing the upper limit of the promised amount, not an additional increase. Also, the buyback portion is for employee compensation, not direct cancellation, so its help in boosting earnings per share is discounted. Compared to SK Hynix's previous 40 trillion KRW direct cancellation, Samsung seems to be following the trend. But Samsung has a net cash balance of 167 trillion KRW, a stronger foundation and more sustainability. Before the news came out, the stock price had already risen, but it fell 3.9% after hours, indicating some chose to take profits. When the Korean stock market opens on Monday, it will likely open higher because the scale is indeed large and will boost the index. But after a high open, it tends to decline, and chasing the price after expectations are met carries significant risk. If the KOSPI opens more than 1.5% higher, I suggest watching first and not rushing to buy. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ CZ calls for tokenizing BNB holders to increase by 370% monthly CZ has spoken again, this time advocating for tokenizing everything. He said that tokenization is one of the best ways for countries to raise funds and attract foreign investment, rhetorically asking which company wouldn't want to sell its tokenized shares globally. This isn't the first time CZ has stood up for the industry, but this time he raised the stakes by pushing for tokenizing everything, effectively grouping RWA, equity, and debt markets into one basket. The words are blunt but make sense, and upon reflection, it's quite interesting. He specifically cited data from BNB Chain to back his point. On-chain RWA holders have reached 776,000, increasing about 370% in 30 days. This number is quite striking, showing that people are genuinely using on-chain assets, not just talking about it. However, he also acknowledged a problem: tokenization spread across multiple chains will fragment liquidity. His own view is that as long as there is high interoperability between different issuers, fragmentation can be alleviated. But reality isn't that simple. If a stock is split into versions on a dozen chains, with buy and sell orders scattered, depth will be diluted. Institutions and retail investors want to trade easily, not piece together orders from a dozen pools. CZ says this is the fastest way to advance the industry, which is true, but the cost is real. Looking back in the space, the Winklevoss brothers just spent $240 million to acquire 18% of Zcash's total network hash rate, and Grayscale has hyped Zcash's privacy features as a necessity in the AI era. Big players are increasingly explicit in betting on tokenization. These moves add up to more than isolated experiments; a visible consensus is forming. On a bigger scale, this tokenization trend isn't just CZ's idea. Mastercard recently acquired BVNK for stablecoin settlement, Franklin Templeton plans to put tokenized assets into traditional funds, platform X is discussing paying creators with USDC, and even traditional exchanges are competing for this market. Regulators are loosening up too; the SEC's new rules provide exemptions for token sales under $5 million. Both big and small money are flocking to this path. Ultimately, selling tokenized stocks globally sounds grand, but implementation faces two main hurdles: differing compliance standards across countries and how to reconcile on-chain and off-chain clearing and settlement. CZ's vision is appealing, but the challenges are tough. For us, the signal is clear: tokenization is no longer just a concept; it's infrastructure in progress. In the short term, public chains like BNB Chain that lead the way will reap benefits, and the RWA narrative will continue to be hot. In the long term, whoever can re-aggregate fragmented liquidity will hold the true moat. Do you think tokenized stocks can really be sold globally, or is this just another round of PPT hype? Bitcoin rose 16 points in two days, short sellers got squeezed Has your account turned green this week? If you’ve been watching the market without moving for the past two days, you should be able to feel that long-lost heat. Bitcoin posted two consecutive big bullish candles, rising a total of 16.66% over two days, with its market cap climbing back above $1.5 trillion. Many people were still debating whether to cut losses last week, and this week they’re already asking if they can still chase the rally. This all started on Wednesday. Trump released a series of positive signals at the crypto event in the White House. On Thursday, the US CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee held its first meeting, with founders and executives from Coinbase, Uniswap, Ripple, a16z, Solana, and others all sitting in the audience. This time, regulators weren’t there to impose restrictions; Chainlink’s Nazarov said on the spot that the CFTC and SEC have finally started to cooperate seriously, with much less of the previous infighting. The market’s biggest fear is uncertainty, and now the signals have reversed. For traders like us, the market impact was direct. Bitcoin climbed from 72,000 to above 75,000, finally unlocking the 840,447 BTC position in Strategy back to breakeven, with an average cost of $75,385. The current price just passed that threshold; previously, unrealized losses had once exceeded $10 billion. Shorts are having a hard time—just in the past hour, $222 million worth of short positions were liquidated. In this short squeeze, the worst pain isn’t losing money but being force-liquidated and missing the rally. Ethereum didn’t lag behind either; ETH reclaimed a key resistance zone and its rally strength even surpassed Bitcoin’s. But don’t be dazzled by a single bullish candle. In the short term, this move was driven by a resonance of sentiment and news—one sentence from Trump, one CFTC meeting could ignite the market, indicating that selling pressure above isn’t heavy, but also that the foundation is still shaky. Technically, the 50-day moving average is around 63,900, and the 200-day moving average is about 69,000. For Bitcoin to truly confirm a golden cross and declare a bear-to-bull transition, the 50-day MA needs to firmly cross above the 200-day MA, which hasn’t happened yet. To be frank, such single-day surges have been seen many times in bear markets, often followed by new lows. Until it can hold above the 200-day MA, all rallies should be considered mere rebounds—don’t mistake luck for skill. The long-term logic is clearer: the US dollar index has dropped to its lowest since May, US Treasury repo operations are pushing down long-term yields, and the story of scarce assets is gaining believers again. Institutions are putting real money in; spot BTC ETF daily trading volume broke $5.3 billion, with BlackRock alone accounting for over 80%. For those still holding on stubbornly, this week finally offers a breather. But the question is, is this breath the start of a reversal or just a big rebound in a downtrend? What’s your take?Gemini fell from 3.3 billion to 450 million—who's snapping it up? This morning, an unassuming suggestion brought together two worlds that originally had nothing to do with each other. ARK Invest's research director Lorenzo publicly called out, saying Hyperliquid should buy Gemini and turn it into a compliant perpetual contract platform based in the U.S. A decentralized protocol running on-chain swallowing a listed exchange regulated by both the SEC and CFTC—no matter how you look at it, this scene feels a bit surreal. The person saying this isn't speaking casually. Hyperliquid is currently negotiating with the CFTC and SEC, aiming to provide trading and clearing of perpetual contracts on public blockchains for U.S. compliant institutions. This protocol, which started with on-chain perpetual contracts, has been gaining strong momentum this year; its token once surged above seventy dollars and was even mentioned by Trump in a speech as a model for U.S.-based compliant perpetuals. What it lacks is not users, but a license to legitimately enter the U.S. market. Looking at Gemini, this exchange that only went public in September 2025 was valued at 3.3 billion USD at IPO, but now its market cap is only about 450 million, down over 85%. Its core business has been shrinking; it has exited the UK, EU, and Australia markets, cut staff from a peak of 402 to about 240, platform assets dropped from 18.2 billion USD to 8.4 billion, and spot trading volume fell by two-thirds. Once a competitor to Coinbase, it has now reached a point where it needs to sell itself to survive. Yet, this storm-tossed company has become a hot commodity in the eyes of another group. The reason is straightforward: its U.S. licenses are extremely valuable. The New York Department of Financial Services trust license, CFTC-regulated DCM and DCO, ongoing FCM license, money transmitter licenses in almost every state, plus broker-dealer qualifications—all packaged together could be acquired for about 450 million USD. For comparison, Kraken's parent company paid up to 550 million to buy Bitnomial, making Gemini overall cheaper. What would the buyer inherit? Approximately 580,000 monthly active trading users, 1.72 million lifetime users, 8.4 billion in platform assets, 3.8 billion in quarterly spot volume, and about 180 million in annual revenue. For an on-chain protocol like Hyperliquid, this is a shortcut to bypass lengthy compliance processes, effectively exchanging over four years of time difference for a ticket to enter the market. Interestingly, neither side in this story is a traditional winner. On one side is a listed company with collapsing valuation and shrinking business; on the other is a rising on-chain newcomer not yet fully accepted by regulators. One wants to buy a license, the other wants to sell itself to survive. So the question arises: can a decentralized protocol really swallow a dual-regulated listed exchange? Will regulators allow such a hybrid structure? Or is this more like a public test probing what the future of compliance looks like? On-chain ambition meets real-world licenses—will the outcome remain just talk, or will it truly rewrite the industry we know?Just experienced a historic liquidation in Bitcoin, but selling pressure has quietly bottomed out In the past two days, Bitcoin has gone through a violent fluctuation that made shorts cry and longs suffer, with a single-day increase once surging over 8%, forcing many shorts into liquidation. Amid this lively scene, an institution called 21Shares released data that calms things down. Their tracked seller exhaustion indicator currently reads about 0.007, within the lowest 0.3% range since 2010. In plain terms, this means that the people willing to dump their holdings in the market are almost out of steam. This indicator measures the loss level and selling pressure intensity of short-term holders; the lower the value, the fewer people are still cutting losses. This is the 11th time in Bitcoin's history that such an extreme reading has appeared, and the previous 10 times all occurred at the market's most desperate, bearish moments. Why is this indicator being highlighted now? Because in recent weeks, Bitcoin has been hammered down from a high, with short-term holders transferring large amounts of coins to exchanges to take profits, and panic is everywhere on-chain. But the data shows that the chips that can still be dumped are decreasing, and long-term holders are not panicking and running away. Even more interesting are the subsequent statistics. 21Shares found that after each of the previous 10 similar signals, the price was higher one year later, with a median increase of 155%. In other words, every time the market was this pessimistic, it later rewarded patient holders well, and many in the community are already watching the charts to find the bottom. Interestingly, at the same time this indicator lit up, Bitcoin just rallied from 72,000 to 75,000, the price hasn't cooled off yet, but the selling pressure has already eased. Such a mismatch between price and sentiment is rare in history and usually marks the time of greatest divergence. However, they also poured cold water in their report, saying this indicator does not mean the bottom is confirmed; in the short term, prices could still dip further before gradually reversing. After all, on the macro side, the Federal Reserve is still divided, with voices calling for both rate hikes and cuts, and no one can say when liquidity will truly return. Our sentiment here is also quite divided. On one side, whales are quietly offloading, while on the other, BlackRock's clients swept over $100 million worth of ETH in two hours. At times like this, when a cold, hard indicator says selling pressure has bottomed, do you trust the data or the hands selling on the market?US Treasuries Are Being Frenziedly Sold Off, But the Fed Says It's Fine US Treasuries have been hammered pretty hard these past couple of days. Long-term yields briefly surged to their highest level since 2007, and the market is shouting everywhere that policy credibility is about to collapse and the dollar is going to have problems. However, two Fed chair-level figures came out to smooth things over, saying don't panic; the rise in long-term yields is mainly because the government needs to borrow money for AI infrastructure and to fill fiscal holes, not because inflation is out of control. But while the Fed verbally reassures, internally it’s already divided. Daly from the San Francisco Fed leans dovish, thinking inflation and employment data are stable enough and there’s no strong reason to raise or not raise rates. Meanwhile, Musalem from St. Louis Fed leans hawkish, saying core inflation is still stuck high between 2.5 and 3, and he actually wanted to hike rates at the July meeting. More subtly, at that July meeting, three members opposed keeping rates unchanged, so the division is now out in the open. Why are long-term bonds being so heavily sold? The root cause is supply and demand. The US Treasury is doubling down on buybacks to support the market while simultaneously issuing massive amounts of debt. The AI giants’ financing frenzy has also grabbed a big chunk of funds, and Japan’s buying has weakened marginally. There aren’t enough buyers to take it all, so long-end yields can only rise. This kind of structural pressure can’t be pushed back just by a few words from the Fed. How is the market pricing this now? The probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from over 70% at the end of July to about 30%, meaning most people are betting the Fed will likely hold steady this year. But the dollar index has already been hammered to its lowest since May. A weaker dollar, in turn, is boosting scarce assets like Bitcoin, as capital naturally seeks assets that can avoid debt expansion. For us, in the short term, this is just an emotional seesaw. When Treasury yields spike, risk assets tremble, and BTC can’t escape either. Don’t be fooled by today’s rally; a yield jump tomorrow can scare off the bulls. At times like this, don’t load your positions too full—keep some ammo ready for sudden dips. Looking longer term, the script becomes clearer. Fiscal deficit expansion combined with a weakening dollar is exactly the strongest fuel in Bitcoin’s long-term narrative. Every round of debt ceiling tug-of-war acts as free advertising for scarce assets. In the short term, watch the Fed’s mood; in the long term, watch debt trends. These two logics rarely align so well. Do you think the Fed can really hold the line this time, or is the dollar story already over? Share your judgment in the comments.The Tokenization Supercycle of U.S. Stocks: Robinhood's CEO Steps In Personally Robinhood's boss Vlad recently made a bold statement on CNBC, saying we are standing at the dawn of a supercycle. He wasn't talking about whether Bitcoin will rise tomorrow, but about the entire U.S. stock market moving onto the blockchain. In his words, this is no longer a concept—it's happening right now. The concrete actions have already been implemented. About a month ago, they launched their own chain overseas, listing 190 U.S. stock tokens, supporting 24/7 trading, and allowing free on-chain transfers just like Bitcoin. This directly brings U.S. stock investment opportunities to people in over 120 countries. In his view, stock tokenization is not simply moving stocks onto the chain; it's about rebuilding the foundation of the financial market. This matter is closer to our crypto world than many think. In recent years, everyone has been focused on BTC and ETH, thinking Wall Street is far away and that the two are separate systems. Now, with tokenization breaking down the three walls of trading hours, asset transfer, and global access, it's like connecting the traditional market's faucet directly to the blockchain. In the long run, this creates a new capital inflow for the entire crypto asset space—not just a zero-sum game within the pool, but new external funds coming in. Of course, don't get too excited too soon. Robinhood's system is currently only running overseas; the regulatory red line in the U.S. hasn't been crossed yet. Whether the CLARITY Act passes and how much the SEC approves will determine how much capital can actually flow in. In the short term, this is just a narrative catalyst; real money inflows will have to wait for compliance. Don't rush in and go all-in on concept coins just because you hear "supercycle." What's even more interesting is the posture of the giants. Traditional players like BlackRock and Fidelity are discovering that spot ETFs are siphoning off spot pricing power, while quietly laying out on-chain infrastructure. Old money and new chains are shaking hands. The entry of institutions at this level is not comparable to the early days of shout-trading communities. Do you think U.S. stocks going on-chain is a gimmick or a real trend? If one day you could use USDT to directly buy on-chain shares of Apple or Tesla, would you take action? Share your judgment in the comments.Bitcoin Breaks Through $74,000, Shorts Buried Overnight Bitcoin surged sharply in the short term, just around 9 AM today, the price directly broke through $74,000, with a 24-hour increase close to 8%. This level has created a significant gap from the low point at the end of June, and many people's accounts finally recovered some losses this week. ETH was also active, rising alongside Bitcoin, and the altcoins that were hit hardest collectively caught a breather. Even the long-silent BSC veteran meme coins rebounded by 30%. Behind the market are actually two opposing forces. On one side, last week's epic short squeeze forced the liquidation of over $3 billion in short positions, with more than $1 billion of opposing positions wiped out within just one hour. Short sellers were forced to close their positions under pressure. On the other side, spot ETF funds are providing support. Yesterday alone, spot Bitcoin ETF trading exceeded $5.3 billion, with BlackRock accounting for over $4.4 billion. Institutions are entering with real money; this volume is not something retail traders can generate by hype alone. Interestingly, 21Shares just released data showing Bitcoin seller exhaustion indicators have dropped to the lowest range of 0.3% since 2010. Historically, this reading has appeared 11 times, and in the previous 10 instances, the average gain over the following year was 155%. On-chain signals also support this: wallets holding over 1,000 ETH have decreased by about 1.7 million ETH in three months. The mainstream explanation is that these coins were staked and locked up, indicating long-term holders are accumulating rather than fleeing. Zooming out to the macro level, the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest since May, and the US government is doubling down on long-term bond buybacks to support the market. The narrative of scarce assets avoiding debt expansion is gaining believers again. In the short term, this means risk appetite has returned, and capital is willing to flow into higher beta assets. But let's be cautious here. The open interest on perpetual contracts has returned to highs not seen since last October, indicating leverage is quietly building up again. This is when sudden spikes and stop-loss hunts are most likely. Also, since the daily death cross in October last year triggered a correction, this rebound is the first decent one but has not yet confirmed a reversal. Don't mistake a rebound for a full bull market comeback. For those of us trading waves, $74,000 just broke through, and chasing now risks getting stopped out by spikes. A safer approach is to wait for a pullback to confirm the 4-hour average cost line holds before following in. The long-term logic is actually much clearer than in the past two months. Are you free from losses on this wave, still holding on, or just had your shorts flushed out and staring blankly at the screen? Let's discuss in the comments whether this round is a bull return or a dead cat bounce.U.S. stocks opened broadly lower while crypto stocks bucked the trend and rose Last night at the U.S. market open, the Dow Jones fell 0.72%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.67%, and the S&P 500 declined 0.38%, with all three major indexes opening lower. People in the crypto circle watched the market and noticed a strange phenomenon: the indexes were all green and falling, but their own crypto holdings were red and rising. Yet at the same time, a group of crypto-linked stocks moved in the completely opposite direction. Strategy rose over 8%, Coinbase gained more than 7%, Circle increased over 5%. Even at the close, Coinbase ended up 5.8% higher. More eye-catching was SK Hynix, which rose over 3% following JPMorgan's prediction that it could return at least $130 billion to shareholders by 2027. Normally, these stocks move in sync with the Nasdaq. This is not the first time. The day before, these crypto concept stocks surged collectively due to Bitcoin's rebound and short covering. The logic then was straightforward: when the coin price goes up, related stocks fly. But yesterday was different; the broader market was clearly falling, yet these stocks moved against the trend, indicating that the driving force is no longer solely the coin price. This is the interesting part. For a long time, crypto stocks were basically followers of tech stocks; if the Nasdaq sneezed, they caught a cold. Now, as the broader market weakens, they are standing firm. Is it that traditional capital is starting to treat crypto as a separate sector to bet on, or is it just short-term hot money looking for an exit? It's still unclear. Zooming out a bit, the timing of this divergence is also notable. Gold just broke through $4,500 to hit a new high, the dollar is weakening, and both safe-haven and inflation-hedge assets are being bought. Whether crypto stocks' counter-trend move is riding the same logic or have their own independent narrative, the market has yet to provide an answer. JPMorgan remains skeptical about U.S. Treasury buybacks, believing the Treasury's doubled buyback is a stopgap, not a solution. Meanwhile, crypto-related assets are quietly strengthening, and the dollar is weakening. These two forces are pulling in opposite directions, leaving the market somewhat directionless. For those of us holding coins, the biggest concern isn't how much a particular stock rises. It's that when crypto stocks start to decouple from tech stocks, it suggests mainstream capital's view of this asset class may really be changing. Companies like Strategy are essentially leveraged substitutes for coin prices; the more they are bought, the more it shows that some are indirectly allocating to crypto through the stock channel. But how long this divergence can last, no one can say for sure. What do you think? Is this a true signal that crypto assets are being accepted by the mainstream, or just another wave of emotion-driven pulses?#BTC is accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over? The market heat is indeed still good now. Vic talk previously said that reaching seventy to eighty thousand this year would be pretty good, and now it seems that seventy to eighty thousand is coming much faster than many people imagined. But I think we shouldn't be blindly optimistic. On one hand, there's still some distance from eighty thousand, and it may not be as easy to break through as it has been these past two days. On the other hand, the two hard indicators I have been continuously monitoring have not yet risen. The USDT lending rate on AAVE hasn't gone up, indicating that on-chain demand hasn't been ignited. OKX buying U hasn't shown a premium, indicating that fund inflow is not obvious. After Trump named it, HYPE surged 26% in one day For those still stubbornly holding altcoins, look up first. There’s a coin that surged 26% in one day yesterday, and it’s neither BTC nor ETH, but HYPE from the Hyperliquid platform, which is already approaching its all-time high. First, some background. The trigger for this rally was quite dramatic: Trump personally named Hyperliquid at a White House event, saying there’s a push to bring it into the US market through compliance. In one sentence, the market directly pulled HYPE up from a low position, with a single-day increase of 26.86%, pushing its market cap close to $17.6 billion, just a breath away from its previous high. Don’t underestimate Hyperliquid. It’s been the fastest-growing on-chain derivatives platform in the past two years, with open interest once reaching $12.5 billion, competing fiercely with established exchanges. HYPE is not only its platform token but also carries the entire ecosystem’s value expectations, so any slight movement causes exaggerated price reactions. Here’s the contrast. Behind HYPE is the on-chain derivatives exchange Hyperliquid, known as a tough decentralized faction, quite incompatible with traditional finance. The most dramatic scene is that it might become a compliant on-chain contract platform under US regulation, ignited by a single sentence from the president. Decentralization meets the White House, and the story instantly twists. Even more ironically, Trump named not some moderate compliance faction, but the most thoroughly decentralized one. Regulators want control, the community wants freedom, and these two forces pulling against each other make the future unpredictable. What does this mean for our trading? In the short term, coins that rally sharply on news are most vulnerable when the good news is realized. Trump’s words don’t equal a signed deal; compliance implementation is still far away. Those chasing the high should think carefully whether they’re betting on the narrative or the facts. In the mid-term, every time HYPE dips, there are buyers, indicating faith in this asset. The long-term logic is even wilder. If on-chain derivatives really get mainstream acceptance, the potential for platform tokens like HYPE is truly different. But don’t forget, regulation is a double-edged sword that can both bless and cut. In this market, platform tokens like HYPE, supported by real trading volume, are completely different from meme coins relying purely on hype. Don’t confuse the two. If you want to participate, don’t go all in; news-driven moves outpace technicals, so keep an exit plan and don’t treat the narrative as a guarantee. Are you holding HYPE now? Do you think it can break through in one go, or will it pull back first? Regulators are inviting crypto into the official arena for the first time Is your wallet really safe? Hold on, there's an even more complex matter today: the U.S. CFTC is holding its very first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, and the agenda clearly includes cryptocurrency. In plain terms, the CFTC is the U.S. authority overseeing derivatives—futures and contracts fall under its jurisdiction. Previously, its relationship with crypto was basically about investigating, fining, and blocking players. This time it's different: it has formed a special committee to formally discuss crypto, AI, and prediction markets together, effectively inviting crypto into the official regulatory arena for the first time. The details are interesting. This meeting is scheduled for this afternoon, and attendees are not just government officials but also several business executives who appeared at yesterday's White House crypto event, along with representatives from traditional finance, academia, and the prediction market community. In other words, the distance between regulators and the industry has shifted from being separated by a wall to sitting at the same table. This meeting is not just empty talk. The Innovation Advisory Committee's role is to serve as an external brain for the CFTC, to first clarify the boundaries of new things like crypto and AI, and then influence how future rules are written. In other words, the people sitting down today are, to some extent, drafting the regulatory framework for the coming years. Ironically, those who once saw crypto as a den of scammers now have to take it seriously. That's the contrast. A couple of years ago, the industry was trembling just to survive, fearing that any new regulation might wipe them out. Now, regulators are proactively setting the stage, indicating that crypto has moved from the brink of being crushed to being taken seriously. This is a long-term positive for us, as policy uncertainty is decreasing. What does this mean for the market? In the short term, this kind of regulatory goodwill often feeds the market a reassuring boost, warming sentiment. But don't get carried away—the committee is not the same as issuing regulations; actual implementation still requires a lengthy legislative process. In the medium term, the clearer the compliance framework, the more real money institutions will dare to enter, which follows the same logic as ETF net inflows. The long-term outlook is clear. Crypto being accepted by the mainstream financial system is a high-probability event; it's just a matter of pace. Whether you believe it or not, the fact that crypto can sit at this table is already a milestone. Do you think regulators genuinely want to protect the market this time, or are they just trying to keep the reins in their own hands? Let's discuss in the comments.A gaming company has 4201 BTC sitting on its books Did the account turn green this week? A company you probably didn’t pay much attention to just revealed another side in its financial report: Boyaa Interactive, a Hong Kong-listed company that started with online card games, now holds 4201 BTC with an average purchase price of $68,047. Let’s do some math. At the current price just above $70,000, the market value of these 4201 coins is roughly $290 million, already significantly higher than the $68,000 average cost. In other words, a gaming company’s coin hoarding has generated a considerable paper profit. Its total revenue for the first half of the year was HKD 258 million, up 16% year-over-year, but what really caught the market’s attention is the fact that its balance sheet increasingly resembles a BTC fund. Here’s the contrast. Boyaa Interactive is not a MicroStrategy-style crypto treasury company; its main business is still gaming, but it’s quietly turning itself into a Bitcoin bull. This kind of coin hoarding hidden in corporate reports has become more common in both Hong Kong and U.S. stocks over the past two years. More traditional companies are converting part of their cash into BTC as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation. Zooming out a bit. 4201 BTC may not sound like much, but these companies are accumulating more and more. The market often debates whether ETFs are the only buyers, but these silent corporate holders are a more covert and harder-to-track force. They don’t make noise but effectively remove chips from the market. Once they buy, they basically hold, locking up a portion of circulating supply long-term, continuously draining the actual tradable chips in the market. Every such company entering the market is like adding another brick of support under BTC’s price floor. What does this mean for our swing trading? These companies are typical long-term bulls; they won’t dump just because of a single daily pullback. On the contrary, every major dip might be their buying opportunity. In other words, there’s a growing group of long-term buyers who don’t rely on technical analysis, providing solid support under BTC. In the short term, at the $70,000 level, they have significant unrealized gains. If the price falls back near their $68,000 cost line, watch if these companies continue to accumulate. The long-term logic is simpler. As long as these companies keep treating BTC as strategic reserves, structural buying won’t stop. This is the flip side of ETF net inflows. The coins in your hands—are they for swing trading, or do you want to learn from them and hold as a base position? These two approaches could make a big difference in this market cycle.Hyperliquid positions surge to $12.5 billion Has your account turned green this week? If you only look at BTC's price, you might have missed a scarier number: the open interest on Hyperliquid contracts has surged to $12.5 billion, hitting the highest level since October 10 last year. Let's put it simply. Open interest is the total amount of all contracts in the market that haven't been closed yet — basically, how much money everyone has put on the table betting on price moves. The higher this number, the thicker the leverage stack; even a slight price move in the opposite direction can trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. Here's a striking contrast. We just went through an epic short squeeze where shorts were liquidated nearly $3 billion. Normally, that should have scared people off. But the reality is, as soon as the price bounced back, leverage actually ramped up even more. Hyperliquid is the largest pool of on-chain derivatives, and its position size basically acts as a thermometer for retail and whale sentiment. Right now, that thermometer is reading 39 degrees. What's even more intriguing is the timing. This surge in positions happened just as Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000, which many took as a bullish signal to aggressively add positions. But historically, at the peak of every major market cycle, open interest tends to hit a new high first before a sharp cleanup follows. High leverage isn't the cause of the rally; it's more like a fragile wrapper at the end of the uptrend. How to interpret this for swing trading? In the short term, $12.5 billion in open interest means both bulls and bears are holding on tight. Any side loosening up first could trigger a sharp rally or drop. Traders aiming for breakouts should be wary of false breakouts and avoid chasing only to get trapped. In the medium term, such a high-leverage environment often signals the final frenzy before a market top or bottom. Historically, before several major tops, open interest showed similar spikes. Another detail: Hyperliquid is an on-chain contract platform, so all positions are publicly visible. Everyone can see how much of that $12.5 billion is held by whales versus retail. The long-term picture remains unchanged. After Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000, institutions continue to support the price with real money through ETF net purchases, and on the macro side, the US Treasury's expanded bond repurchase program is injecting liquidity into the market. So this is a classic tug-of-war: short-term bearish bets versus long-term price support. Are your positions heavy right now? If you're fully leveraged betting on a direction, standing next to this $12.5 billion powder keg, are you sure you're not the fuse most likely to be ignited? Buffett, who was mocked for missing out on artificial intelligence, suddenly started buying Google A few months ago, some people still dared to mock this ninety-five-year-old man, saying Buffett was just so-so and couldn't beat me. But when Berkshire's Q2 report came out, everyone changed their tune; the old man is still impressive. There is a key signal hidden in this financial report. Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for fourteen consecutive quarters, selling from 2023 until now, holding over $360 billion in cash and government bonds, once criticized for missing the AI wave. But in Q2, it suddenly reversed, buying about $23.4 billion in stocks and selling less than $3.7 billion, with a net purchase close to $19.8 billion. The more than three years of net selling stopped for the first time. Where the money went is most intriguing. Berkshire quietly increased its position in Alphabet, Google's parent company, by about $10 billion, directly entering the top five holdings, alongside Apple and Bank of America; these three account for 66% of the entire portfolio. Previously, the market thought Buffett didn't understand AI, but he chose to invest in Google, which many had shorted. Just looking at the numbers shows this time is different. Berkshire's Q2 revenue was $101.8 billion, up 10% year-over-year, and net profit more than doubled year-over-year, slapping the skeptics hard. It also repurchased $4.5 billion in stock, the most since 2021. Although cash on hand decreased slightly, it was because it was actually spent, not trapped. What’s even more worth pondering is the cash. Berkshire still has about $364.7 billion on its books, slightly less than last quarter but still one of the largest war chests in human history. A person holding such massive cash choosing to start buying at this point, rather than waiting for a crash, is itself sending a certain judgment. Many people take Buffett’s cash as evidence that he is pessimistic about the market, but now it looks more like he is waiting for a price level he is comfortable with. When it arrives, he buys; if not, he waits. This patience is exactly what those who rush in with full leverage find hardest to learn. The crypto market just experienced a violent rebound, with shorts liquidated by tens of billions. Seeing Buffett shift from watching to net buying, would you reconsider who really understands cycles better: those shouting "this time is different" or the old man quietly hoarding cash for three years?Bitcoin surged past 72,000, but that money-printing machine leaked at the bottom Everyone is focused on Bitcoin breaking through 72,000 with that bullish candlestick, and the community is filled with voices of a bull market comeback. Yet amid the same celebration, a small token that usually goes unnoticed quietly dropped to its lowest price since listing. That token is STRC, the latest in the perpetual preferred shares from a company famous for issuing shares to buy crypto. Over the past two years, this company has raised huge amounts of cash from the market through a dazzling array of preferred shares, then turned around to buy Bitcoin, making this strategy the most sought-after bullish model in the circle. STRC is the newest and most highly anticipated of these, with a straightforward design logic: as Bitcoin rises, the parent company's price-to-book premium increases, allowing it to continuously issue new shares to raise money and buy more Bitcoin, cycling endlessly like a perpetual money-printing machine. Many in the crypto community see it as a shortcut to leverage and bet on Bitcoin, rushing in crazily. But many haven't thought carefully—the machine can only keep running if the parent company's premium holds up. However, in the past two days, even though Bitcoin has been surging, STRC has slid from a high down below $83, hitting a new historical low. This is somewhat counterintuitive. Logically, the stronger Bitcoin is, the more the machine should run smoothly, so why is it leaking at the bottom? The problem lies in its valuation anchor. STRC doesn't track Bitcoin's price directly; it follows the parent company's premium. Once the market starts doubting the value of that premium, even if Bitcoin is rising, this derivative will still be sold off. More subtly, its functional positioning matters. It ranks first among those preferred shares, receiving the most stable dividends, yet the market treats it as a signal socket. If STRC's price stays below $99 for a long time, the parent company's cheapest financing channel will close. In other words, it doesn't accelerate the machine but becomes a health indicator light for the machine. When the light turns red, it doesn't necessarily stop immediately but indicates internal pressure has become too great to hide. Some have calculated that if the parent company's premium continues to shrink to one times, interest expenses will gradually eat away the entire structure's buffer. At that point, the company will either have to sell crypto to pay interest or stop paying interest—neither option looks good. The most ironic part is that the layer considered the most stable and front-line in the structure is the first to light up red. Those who rushed in initially expected to ride the bull market to easy wins, with few considering an exit strategy. Now Bitcoin stands at 72,000, and the story looks beautiful. But the leak at the bottom of this money-printing machine reminds us that real cracks often hide in the most bustling narratives. Do you think this red light is a warning or just noise? The Fed just mentioned a rate hike and its own people immediately backtracked Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to 72,000 in this round, with a single-day increase approaching 8%. Many attribute this rally to the same main theme: U.S. Treasury repo doubling combined with renewed expectations of rate cuts. But just as the market almost completely dismissed the idea of a rate hike, the Fed itself started an internal conflict. San Francisco Fed President Daly publicly expressed her stance this week. She said she has yet to see evidence that warrants an early rate hike, adding that the rise in long-term bond yields is actually a global issue, not something the U.S. alone can control. It sounds like a diplomatic statement, but at this moment, it carries a very different meaning. Because just a week ago, another influential official, Musalem, said the Fed should hike rates now. One is urging to tighten, the other advising to wait—both are key figures who influence expectations, leaving the market caught in the middle and confused. Even more intriguing, CME data still shows a 34% probability of a 25 basis point hike in September, with a 65% chance of no change. This scene is somewhat absurd. The foundation of this Bitcoin rebound was originally a bet on easing returning. Yet the Fed itself hasn’t aligned its messaging—one side is eager to hike, the other is holding back. Bulls who have positioned themselves for rate cuts are left wondering which side to trust. Rewinding a few days, the real spark for this rally was Treasury Secretary Yellen’s statement about doubling the size of long-term bond repos. The market immediately read this as a signal of easing, the dollar weakened accordingly, and Bitcoin took off. Looking back now, the fundamentals haven’t really changed; what changed was the narrative. An official’s single sentence can lift a strong bullish candle, but the next sentence can leave bulls hanging halfway up the mountain. Citibank just cut its three-month dollar target from 102 to 98, citing the market preparing for a dovish Fed shift. Daly’s remarks effectively handed the doves a crutch. But on the flip side, if Musalem is right and the Fed acts in September, can this rally, propped up by liquidity expectations, really stand on solid ground? Don’t forget gold also hit a new all-time high these days—both safe-haven and speculative funds are betting on the same outcome. What we ordinary holders fear most is this very back-and-forth. Half a month ago, the market was still talking about rate cuts; now the chance of a hike is touching 30%. The officials’ wavering statements are the most frustrating—this slow, knife-edge hesitation is what really erodes confidence. You never know which direction the next speech will push the market. So for this rally, do you trust Daly’s patience or Musalem’s urgency more? See you in the comments—do you think the Fed will hike in September or not? 1.7 million ETH quietly disappeared. Where did the whales go? Santiment just released a set of on-chain data that makes people nervous. From May 20 to August 20, over these three months, wallets holding more than 1,000 ETH collectively decreased by about 1.7 million ETH, roughly 2.9% of holdings at this level. What does 1.7 million ETH mean? At current prices, it's close to $6 billion. This amount disappearing from top whales is no small matter. What's stranger is that Santiment says only about 300,000 of the outflow ETH can be traced to smaller wallet tiers; the whereabouts of the rest are a mystery—either staked or sent to contract addresses. Normally, when big holders reduce positions, the most common scenario is dumping and exiting, which should cause exchange balances to surge. But during the same period, exchange ETH balances dropped from about 7.07 million to 6.54 million, decreasing by over 500,000. This is very interesting—funds didn't move to exchanges, indicating no rush to sell, more like moving to hide elsewhere. Looking at the other side, the proportion of small wallets holding 1 to 10 ETH rose from 4.38% to 4.52%, increasing on 58 out of 65 trading days. Big money is withdrawing, small money is entering; this pattern has appeared multiple times in past cycles, often corresponding to chips transferring from whales to retail. For those of us holding, this data needs to be analyzed carefully. In the short term, whales didn’t dump on exchanges, so selling pressure isn’t direct, which is good. But the continuous shrinkage of large holders on-chain shows the most knowledgeable are reducing exposure, signaling cautious sentiment, so the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. For swing trading, whale movements are just one reference; combined with volume, if price rises but volume lags, this rally might be a false signal. Also, ETH contract open interest rose just over 8% in 24 hours, indicating leveraged funds are increasing positions, which means volatility will be more intense and stop losses should be set properly. Long-term logic is less pessimistic. If most of the outflow ETH really went into staking, that means locked tokens, reducing the chips available for sale and thus lowering selling pressure. Plus staking yields returns; whales aren’t stupid—they just changed their holding posture. In short, whales reducing ETH holdings is a short-term bearish sentiment but not necessarily so in the long run. The real indicator to watch is exchange balances; as long as they don’t rise, panic hasn’t reached that level. The question is, do you think this 1.7 million ETH ran away or is it hidden? For those holding a lot of ETH, will this data make you reduce your position? Everyone says there will be a rate cut, but the probability of a rate hike in September has reached 35%. The latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool has stunned many. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is still 65.4%, but the chance of a 25 basis point hike has quietly climbed to 34.6%, more than one-third. This figure stands out especially in the current market. Everyone talks about rate cuts, and the Treasury is desperately buying back long-term bonds to suppress yields, yet the market pricing shows over one-third betting on a rate hike. What people say and where the real money goes are two different things. What’s more intriguing is that this isn’t just retail speculation. In the July Fed meeting minutes, some members supported a rate hike, and Mouselim openly said he voted for a hike. Citi also lowered its three-month USD index forecast from 102.12 to 98.34, reasoning that the market is preparing for a less hawkish Fed stance. You see, institutions talk dovish but keep a hawkish option open on rates. Why has the rate hike expectation risen above 30%? Simply put, it’s still about inflation. Although the Treasury’s long bond buybacks have suppressed yields, pumping in more money means inflation expectations have to rise again, putting the Fed in a tough spot. The 34.6% hike probability reflects the market pricing this dilemma. For us trading contracts, this number is more concrete than any analyst’s opinion. It means next month’s rate meeting won’t be a formality; surprises are possible. Position management needs to be thought through in advance—if there really is a 25 basis point hike in September, can your positions hold? Directionally, when rate hike expectations heat up, the dollar strengthens, risk assets generally come under pressure, and highly volatile assets like BTC take the hardest hit. Don’t overfill your positions; leave room for surprises. In the short term, this is pressure, but in the long term, it could be an opportunity. If a rate hike actually happens, the negative news will be fully priced in, potentially opening a window to get back in. Historically, at the end of Fed rate hike cycles, crypto assets often start their main upward wave after the “boot drops.” So don’t just fear the 34.6%; understand where it fits in the overall policy cycle. When watching the market, also keep an eye on the USD index and 10-year Treasury yields—these leading indicators are more honest than any talk. When their direction changes, capital flows will move first. Finally, a question for you: do you think there will really be a rate hike in September? If so, will you add to your position or exit first? $BTC Will this mainstream rally really be a redemption for retail investors? Many people have asked Caibao if this wave is truly a bull comeback. Caibao can clearly tell you, it’s not yet time for a bull comeback. The recent sharp rise in the market is mainly due to a large amount of positive news released: U.S. Treasury bonds, the dollar, policy expectations, and short squeeze all jointly driving it. The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, temporarily easing pressure in the Treasury market. Long-term yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk appetite rose accordingly. BTC, ETH, U.S. stocks, and other risk assets rebounded simultaneously. Additionally, many shorts were forced to cover, further amplifying the rally. But it’s still too early to shout that the bull market has arrived. A true bull market requires sustained liquidity, ETF capital, and confirmation from macro policies. Right now, it looks more like a strong rebound after improved macro expectations. The biggest variables ahead remain U.S. policy and the midterm elections. If the Trump camp continues to hold policy initiative, the market may keep trading on the Trump + crypto logic. Conversely, if the midterm election results are unfavorable and policy expectations reverse, early profit-taking could concentrate, and BTC might even experience a rapid pullback. So the key now is not to chase the rally but to watch U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, ETF capital, and U.S. political expectations. If these variables continue to improve, the rebound has a chance to gradually evolve into a true bull market. Otherwise, the area around $80,000 could become a significant resistance level. Caibao’s personal advice: Spot traders who want to position now can wait a bit. There are still swing trading opportunities in contracts since spot only allows buying long, while contracts allow both long and short positions. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ The coin price is only 72,000, yet he dares to shout 400,000 Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in an interview with FOX Business Channel that Bitcoin could very likely rise to $300,000 to $400,000 in the next few years, around 2030. Once this statement came out, the community exploded. Keep in mind that BTC is just a bit over 72,000 now. According to his statement, it means it still needs to multiply 4 to 5 times. Interestingly, he just said in another occasion that after the CLARITY Act vote passes on September 15, a new bull market might start, and then he set the target price at 400,000. For the head of an exchange to shout such a high price, is he really seeing something, or is it just to boost the market? Let's not rush to mock. Armstrong’s position is special; Coinbase is the largest compliant exchange in the US, handling retail accounts, institutional custody, and ETF market making. He knows the ins and outs of fund inflows and outflows best. His bold statement at least indicates that the internal buying data looks good. Plus, BlackRock clients just spent $122 million buying ETH the day before, the largest single purchase in 7 months, so the institutional line is indeed moving. But on the flip side, his statement is not without risk. In the crypto industry, there are many cases of exchange CEOs making bullish calls and then failing; last year, some were proven wrong immediately after making such calls. The 400,000 figure sounds exciting, but there are regulatory implementations, macro shifts, and rounds of liquidation cleansings in between. Saying it is one thing; holding it is another. For those of us doing swing trading, the most direct short-term impact of such big calls is to boost sentiment, making retail investors bolder to chase the rally, but prices won’t take off just because of a statement. The reference approach is to treat such calls as sentiment indicators, not price targets. When it comes to key resistance levels, what matters is the order book and capital flow, not the numbers from someone’s mouth. To be honest, his call of 400,000 has nothing to do with your stop-loss or take-profit orders; position management still depends on your own rules. Expecting a big shot to carry you to an easy win is entrusting your fate to others. The long-term logic is worth pondering. If the CLARITY Act really passes, SEC regulations come into effect, and compliant funds open the gates to enter, then the era of institutional pricing will truly begin, and 300,000 to 400,000 might not be nonsense. But this path must be taken step by step; if any link breaks, expectations must be discounted again. The question is, do you think his 400,000 is bragging or a strategic declaration? Will the coins in your hands still be there in 2030? The day the coin price broke 72,000, he was still advising people to buy gold BTC directly broke through 72,000 last night, rising 11.8% in 24 hours. Short positions across the network were liquidated by $1.55 billion, nearly 150,000 people were forced out. At this point, someone jumped out and said, don't celebrate too early, this is a false breakout. This person is called Peter Schiff, known in the community as Bitcoin's number one critic, who has been shouting all his life that gold is the real money. This time his exact words were that this BTC rally is a false breakout, not a real breakout. The U.S. Treasury announced a bond repurchase plan that caught the market off guard. The long-awaited return of loose monetary policy is only half right. He suggests selling Bitcoin and buying gold. To be honest, we've heard this for over a decade. BTC rose from a few thousand dollars all the way to 72,000, and his bearish calls have been proven wrong repeatedly, yet he never changes his stance. In earlier years, he even bet his company's performance against Bitcoin going to zero, but Bitcoin is still thriving while his company became a joke in the circle. Now he again pours cold water at the moment of a new high breakout. Is he just stubborn or does he have a point? If we talk about what's different this time, there really is something. The U.S. Treasury's move is indeed fierce, doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases, raising the single round limit from 2 billion to 4 billion, clearly aiming to suppress long-term yields. The dollar index fell to 98.9, hitting a new low since May. The easing expectations this time are genuinely fermenting, not baseless rumors. Schiff said his judgment was only half right. I guess he means that with easing, gold will definitely rise, but BTC may not keep up, since this rebound was triggered by the Treasury supporting U.S. bonds, not by the Fed's liquidity injection itself. Whether this makes sense depends on the Fed's next moves. Looking at our own positions, such a top-level bearish public statement directly widens the long-short divergence at the breakout point in the short term. When divergence grows, volatility rises, and spike moves are inevitable. For swing traders, be cautious, don't chase highs at the peak of sentiment, and wait for a clear pullback before acting. If you hold long positions, consider whether your stop-loss might be triggered by such news panic, and whether your rationale for holding still stands. Looking further ahead, if this cycle is truly the prelude to easing, then BTC and gold actually follow the same logic—they both hedge against fiat depreciation. He has been bearish for so many years, yet the market still went from a few thousand to 72,000. Trends are never dictated by one person's calls. So the question is, how much do you believe in this breakout? Above 72,000, do you dare to hold your position or are you ready to run? Let's discuss in the comments.The largest exchange in the US publicly asks X to bring back an icon The hottest topic in the crypto circle these days isn't about who got liquidated again, but rather a seemingly small matter. Coinbase's official X account suddenly posted, saying now is a good time to make a request to the X platform to restore the orange Bitcoin emoji. Many people may have already forgotten that this emoji used to exist. Whenever you typed #Bitcoin in a tweet, an orange Bitcoin icon would automatically appear afterward. It was a symbol in the memories of many veteran players, marking the time when crypto first entered mainstream view. However, in July 2024, X quietly removed it, and since then, #Bitcoin has just been a few ordinary letters. This icon looks inconspicuous but carries more weight than imagined. It was like a silent certification from the platform for an asset, telling everyone who saw it that Bitcoin is something to be taken seriously. When it was removed, some in the community felt it was a blatant snub, while others just shrugged, saying big platforms are always cutting features. But no matter how you interpret it, a cultural landmark for crypto was lost. Its presence or absence wasn’t something people thought about daily, but once someone seriously asks for it back, it reflects the industry's situation. What’s interesting is who is asking. It’s not some retail investor complaining in the comments, but the largest crypto exchange in the US by market cap, seriously making the request. An industry leader with hundreds of millions of users, who just experienced the Bitcoin surge to $72,000, is publicly speaking up for an icon. In other industries, this probably wouldn’t happen, but crypto is always fighting for a little recognition from the mainstream. Two years ago, this might have sounded like a joke. But now it feels different. The White House just held a crypto-themed event this week, and Trump openly called for building up crypto reserves, showing the industry is getting closer to power. Coinbase bringing this up now makes you wonder if they feel the tide is turning in their favor, and even an icon that was taken away should be returned. Of course, whether X will respond is unknown. A small orange icon ultimately doesn’t change any prices, but it acts like a gauge measuring how the mainstream views this industry. When it really comes back, we’ll probably be able to tell how far this comeback has gone.Bitcoin's wild night of celebration quietly hides privacy coin capital Last night, the hottest topic in the crypto circle was all stolen by Bitcoin breaking through 70,000 and Ethereum's recovery. While everyone's eyes were fixed on the candlestick charts and liquidation data, a privacy project called Beldex quietly completed an $8 million funding round. The lead investor was Sigma Capital, followed by NTC, Nxgen, Digital Consensus Fund, and EAK Ventures. The news came out at midnight and barely caused a ripple, with hardly any discussion in the community. This amount is actually quite modest compared to recent funding rounds that often reach hundreds of millions. But what's worth pondering is how they plan to spend it. Beldex originally focused on privacy ecology, holding both private communication and on-chain confidential transactions. Now, they want to invest in developer tools, privacy applications, protocol security, and something called AI infrastructure. Simply put, they want to upgrade from a privacy chain to a provider offering privacy foundations for both Web3 and AI, expanding from on-chain privacy to broader data protection. This is interesting. In the past two years, privacy coins have been almost a hot potato in mainstream markets. Regulators have targeted exchanges to delist related tokens, and even Grayscale's push for a Zcash trust was seen by many as an unusual move. Yet capital is pouring into privacy at this moment. Privacy has never been a new demand, but in the narrative of AI and data monetization, it is being revalued. It's hard to say whether this is a bet on regulatory relaxation or if developers truly believe that in the AI era, the most important thing to protect is data itself. When big companies are scrambling to train models and integrate AI agents into wallets for autonomous payments, someone is going the other way to build a layer where no one can see your privacy. This contrast shows that market anxiety about data leaks has not diminished at all. Their encrypted communication product line becomes even more necessary in an era where AI agents exchange instructions among themselves. What’s more subtle is the timing. In the same week, Bitcoin violently surged across the network thanks to treasury buybacks and ETF inflows, with retail fear and greed indexes soaring above sixty. Amid the excitement, there are still people willing to pay for something invisible. Eight million dollars won’t change the industry landscape, but it acts like a probe detecting another thought in capital. Now the question is left to you. As AI consumes data more voraciously, do you trust more in openness and transparency, or do you want a layer where no one can see your privacy? This answer might be more valuable than this round of funding itself. A prediction market that was once fined is now sitting in the regulatory meeting room In the past 24 hours, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent a very strong signal: it is going to hold the inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, with an agenda listing cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets. What is most intriguing is that several executives who appeared just the day before at a White House crypto event are on the attendee list. The regulators taking the initiative to organize this meeting is quite different from the style of the past few years. A few months ago, this scene would have been almost impossible. The relationship between the CFTC and prediction markets was once one of mutual lawsuits. It fined Polymarket and fought several rounds of litigation with Kalshi over election contracts. Kalshi even sued the CFTC in the appellate court to list election prediction contracts; Polymarket was forced to remove U.S. users and pay fines. When the crypto community mentions it, the first reaction is often subpoenas and long boundary disputes. But now, regulators are proactively organizing meetings, inviting people from the crypto industry, traditional finance, academia, and prediction markets to discuss the future together. The arrangement of this meeting reveals the direction. It is scheduled the day after the White House crypto event and includes executives who just appeared at the White House, effectively linking the executive and regulatory actions. Previously, the crypto community had to queue and submit materials just to meet regulators; now the regulators are proactively offering seats. For the industry, being invited to the table is very different from being kept outside the door. Sitting on the advisory committee means voices can enter the early stages of rule discussions, rather than protesting after drafts are finalized. Of course, the advisory committee is not a legislative body; it offers advice rather than enforcement power. Some may ask if this is just a posture before the midterm elections. But it is undeniable that the crypto industry’s political weight has visibly increased over the past six months—from PACs breaking donation records, to the White House hosting summits, to the CFTC forming an innovation committee—a path from the margins to the halls of power is being paved. The most awkward role on this path may be the prediction markets themselves. They were fined and sued by the CFTC, yet now they are a key agenda item for the innovation committee. If even the most sensitive prediction contracts can be openly discussed, then relatively tame areas like crypto derivatives and tokenized assets getting clear regulatory status is only a matter of time. What we should be most concerned about is not what rules this meeting can immediately change, but the overall loosening of the regulatory context. When even the most restrained regulatory agency starts discussing crypto as innovation, the narrative baseline has already shifted. What comes next to watch is whether this attitude can translate into real product approvals and clear guidance. After all, committee meetings don’t cost much, but actually approving a product involves many hurdles. That said, inviting people in is easy; whether the big players can sit comfortably depends on whether there are real, practical channels afterward. How long do you think this wave of regulatory warmth can last? Citibank, which was previously neutral, suddenly turns bearish on the US dollar Citibank has taken action. Their three-month forecast for the US Dollar Index was slashed from 102.12 directly down to 98.34, and they added a note: future risks will only increase. This number alone isn't exaggerated, but combined with the timing, it becomes very interesting. Just a few days ago, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the repurchase scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds would at least double, raising the single-round cap from $2 billion to $4 billion, and said it might continue to increase. The US Dollar Index dropped to its lowest since May that day, barely closing around 98.9 on Thursday. Citibank’s cut is like pressing on the market’s wound. What’s more subtle is the reversal in attitude. Citibank itself admits that in recent months their stance on the dollar has been neutral, but now they suddenly turn bearish, listing a long series of reasons: the market is pricing in a weakening Fed hawkish stance, midterm elections are approaching, and the Treasury will continue to aggressively buy back long-term debt. In plain terms: the US Treasury is personally suppressing long-term yields, shaking the yield logic of dollar assets, so who would dare to hold onto the dollar stubbornly? Moreover, this report comes from Citibank’s FX strategy team, led by a veteran, not just some random analyst making noise, so it carries more weight. This has a very direct impact on the crypto market. A weak dollar generally benefits dollar-denominated assets. BTC, gold, and other assets with inherent anti-dilution properties have historically performed well during dollar down cycles. Currently, there is still a 34.6% chance of a rate hike on the table; the Fed and the market are at odds, so volatility will only increase. For traders doing swing trades, one line to watch is the negative correlation between the US Dollar Index and risk assets, which has been especially evident in recent days. The 98.9 level is critical; if the dollar breaks down below this, the bullish sentiment in crypto is very likely to ignite; conversely, if Yellen’s repurchase fails to suppress long-term yields and the dollar rebounds, the crypto market will come under pressure again. Both sides are like needles, so don’t overcommit your positions. Looking further ahead, the Treasury’s repurchase program itself is still fermenting. Wall Street’s interpretation has shifted from market support to intervention. The greater the controversy, the greater the volatility. This turbulent period before things settle is actually a good window to observe which way the money is flowing. Finally, a question remains: in this game of Yellen suppressing Treasury yields, will the US dollar bear the cost alone, or will the global market share the burden together? Tokenized assets are being mixed into funds that don't touch cryptocurrencies You bought a very ordinary money market fund, never touched an exchange, never registered a wallet, yet your holdings might quietly include a tokenized asset. Don't think it's an exaggeration; this is happening. Franklin Templeton, a giant asset manager overseeing trillions of dollars, is preparing to bring tokenized assets into traditional funds. According to Bloomberg, they have already received regulatory approval, allowing digital-native fund products to be used in traditional funds for the first time. The specific approach is to pack tokenized money market funds into ETFs and mutual funds, which can serve both as holdings and collateral. What does this mean? Investors who never intended to touch crypto will, unknowingly, indirectly hold on-chain assets through their ordinary fund holdings. Previously, if you wanted to buy RWA (Real World Assets), you had to open an account yourself; now asset managers buy them for you without needing your consent. Looking at this from the whole industry perspective, the signal is significant. Tokenization has been talked about for years, and the most solid implementation is in money market funds—moving fund shares onto the blockchain so that redemption, settlement, and collateralization can all happen on-chain. Franklin is a pioneer in this field; their on-chain money market fund has always been a leading product in its category. This approval to enter traditional funds effectively opens the door for the entire industry. With Franklin leading, other giants will likely follow, and sectors like on-chain settlement, stablecoins, and RWA will be re-evaluated by the market. For traders, the narrative attention translates to sentiment; when such news breaks, related tokens usually see a premium, but it comes fast and goes fast, so be cautious about chasing highs. The flip side must also be made clear. Tokenized assets entering traditional funds means on-chain risks quietly enter ordinary people's asset pools. If the protocol has issues or the underlying assets face a run, retail investors' fund NAVs will suffer, and they might not even know whom to hold accountable. Moreover, this passive holding means investors have no choice; the risk exposure is set by the asset manager on their behalf. If on-chain assets experience hacking incidents or liquidation crises, the impact won't be limited to just crypto traders. So the question arises: Would you prefer your fund quietly includes a tokenized asset, or would you rather the asset manager ask you before taking action?

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