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Retail investors rushed to buy an IPO at 408 times leverage, but it dropped by one-third on the first day of listing.
South Korean AI company Elice was listed today, with retail investors bidding 10.3 trillion KRW in margin, opening with a 16% drop below the issue price, and intraday falling as much as 32.6%, marking the worst debut for a billion-KRW-level IPO in South Korea 📉
KOSPI closed down 3.73% the same day, the lowest close since April; SK Hynix -4.23%, Samsung -2.98%.
Back to today's question on the planet: The eight-day losing streak for chip stocks has ended, but can the AI rally continue? I think it's doubtful — the AI financing downturn has spread from the US stock market to Asia: last week CoreWeave's bond yield hit 15%, Firmus withdrew a $5 billion IPO, and this week Asian retail investors are voting with real money, even rejecting profitable companies.
Invalidation condition: If US semiconductor stocks hold and continue to rise tonight, it's just a one-day sentiment sell-off; if they don't hold, the correction is not over yet.
Which side are you on: a real correction, or the prelude to a bubble burst?
$MU
#芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？ Ethereum is currently in a more passive position than Bitcoin. October's Ethereum ETF outflows have nearly reached $1 billion, which is real money being redeemed, and since it broke below 2450, it hasn't been able to mount a decent rebound. Basic Attention Token rose 10.7% today, and a few small coins made rounds on the hot list, but this did nothing to help Ethereum itself. Technically, 2350 is the last line of support; if it breaks, look to 2200. A rebound to 2450-2500 is an opportunity to reduce positions. Ethereum's role is very clear now: it is the most vulnerable in this round of decline because it lacks both Bitcoin's institutional base and the resilience stories of altcoins, stuck in the middle with no support on either side. The real signal that the entire market is warming up will be when Ethereum can outperform Bitcoin.$BR This wave has some substance. The most counterintuitive thing is that despite the bearish pressure of about 4.92 million tokens unlocking on October 20, the price still surged over 40%, reaching as high as around 0.73, with a 24-hour contract trading volume close to $400 million. The bearish pressure couldn't push the price down, which itself is a signal.
More importantly, the funding rate is still negative, meaning shorts are paying to hold their positions, yet the price keeps climbing. The buybacks from shorts covering their positions serve as ready fuel. Plus, with the Korean won market now online, the liquidity base is already established, and the 2.0 narrative is gradually taking shape—this is not just an empty pump.
The recent pullback from 0.75 did not break below the starting point of the previous big bullish candle, and the short-term moving averages are still supporting. As long as it doesn't fall below 0.60, this rebound driven jointly by short covering and the bearish unlock still has potential. $ETH
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期
Meta's Q3 figures themselves are not bad, but profit-side pressure is increasing.
The market consensus expects Q3 revenue to be about $63.3–63.5 billion (year-over-year about +23–24%), with advertising revenue estimated around $62 billion. Q2 actual revenue was $60.8 billion (+28%), including advertising at $59.4 billion (+27%), with ad impressions up 14% and price per ad up 12%. Family DAP reached 3.6 billion, and Instagram daily active users surpassed 2 billion.
Reality Labs remains a drag: Q2 revenue was only $431 million, with an operating loss of $4.62 billion. AI-related Capex remains high, and Q3 free cash flow is expected to be negative. Some analysts have lowered EPS forecasts due to one-time legal expenses (some versions as low as $3.79, while consensus remains in the $5.9–6.8 range).
Revenue growth mainly relies on advertising, but expenses and capital expenditures are rising simultaneously. This time, the focus is on whether both ad price and impressions can continue to grow, or if Reality Labs losses and AI investments will further compress profits. I really can't trust it
$PUMP unlocks nearly 50 million USD worth of tokens every month
Not just once, but every month, this much every month
How can the price still go up with such selling pressure above?
I entered at 0.0059, now it's 0.0044
Profit is close to 25 points, although it has already dropped a lot
I still think the price is high
$LIT is still fluctuating around 3u now, some people say it won't fall further, but I still hold my view that the next step is 2u, and 2u is not the bottom, there is a lot of room for further decline. Currently, about 25% is circulating, the locked tokens have not been unlocked yet, need to wait until early next year.
For $CAP, although the holding volume has been declining recently, the long-short ratio is only 0.61. There are quite a few shorts, I feel it might still do some wild moves. Although I am also short, this situation is really a bit hard to understand!
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ $TIA Discussing my view on this coin
After a volume surge followed by a sharp drop, it has declined for three consecutive days with volume moderately shrinking, indicating cumulative short-selling profit-taking over these three days.
Today's rise shows a strong pattern, but this increase did not continue with added position volume.
The 1h and 4h position volumes show slight oscillation, indicating funds are in a turnover state. Based on volume and candlesticks, it appears short sellers are closing positions and pushing prices up.
At the same time, there are funds opening both long and short positions at this price level, making the rise seem effortless.
After three days of volume-driven decline, is today's rise a trend reversal? I am not optimistic. The three days of volume-driven decline sufficiently prove that the short-term price above is not justified. Daily position volume is also stable, with no further institutional involvement. Today is merely a turnover between internal and external positions, a short-term rebound driven by closing short positions to take profits.
Moreover, there is still resistance from trapped positions above. Unless market sentiment reverses, it is difficult to reach previous highs again. Using appropriate leverage is most important.Price hits new highs but volume can't keep up; this kind of divergence won't fool those who know the game. $FIL surged continuously at 1.1301 but volume shrank, clearly showing funds can't follow through. I judge that the main force is secretly unloading, so I decisively entered a 50x short position.
Volume-price divergence is a classic top signal; a long upper shadow at high levels indicates heavy selling pressure; the sector is overall retreating. With these three points resonating, I precisely opened a short at 1.1301.
Price then dropped with increased volume, confirming the main force's escape. There was a technical rebound in between, but volume was insufficient, so I held on. The bid side was smashed through, with huge selling pressure.
From 1.1301 to 1.0056, the return was 550.83%. Volume-price analysis isn't foolproof; making money and running isn't shameful. Contract trading carries extremely high risk; decisions must be made cautiously. $BTC $ETH #OpenAI与Anthropic上市竞赛升温 $BTC ETFs saw an outflow of $229 million last week, but the previous week was $681 million.
According to CryptoQuant's metrics, weekly outflows have dropped to about 2,800 BTC, so selling pressure has slightly eased on the margin.
Leverage is also easing, funding rates have fallen to the lowest since June, and open interest is at a 5-month low.
Therefore, the nature of this rebound is more like "fewer sellers temporarily" rather than "more buyers."
What's the difference❓ With reduced selling pressure, prices can bounce, but not far, because there is no sustained spot buying pushing prices up.
The same CryptoQuant data also mentioned that institutional accumulation is slowing down.
The 83,000 level was touched yesterday but did not hold.
Whether the rebound can continue depends on whether ETF outflows turn positive, and while outflows continue to narrow, whether new spot buying emerges to absorb sell orders above 83,000.
If selling pressure is first exhausted, the rebound still has room; if buying doesn't return, the bounce will hit resistance and follow the same old script.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ CPI risk aversion before release, the worst hit are the three storage chip brother tokens.
$xSNDK SanDisk -2.55%, $xMU Micron -1.7%, $xSKHY SK Hynix -0.34%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weakened, the three brothers collectively fell, Micron accelerated after breaking below 1020, the next support is at 980.
The logic is simple: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index already lost momentum last night, today the tokens 24/7 market first released the sentiment. Although HBM demand is still strong, the sector as a whole is dragging, no one can escape, SanDisk, Hynix, and Micron all fell.
Avoid semiconductors in the short term, wait for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to stop falling and CPI to settle before considering. Bottom fishing storage now is like catching a flying knife. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ #ETF continuous outflow, can BTC rebound continue?
$BTC This rebound looks more like a "breather" after a sharp drop, not a reversal yet. The core contradiction remains unresolved: ETF is still flowing out.
Although the ETF outflow has slowed down, it is still ongoing. More troublesome is that BTC's current price has fallen below the average cost of ETF investors (about 82,000), and they are at a loss on paper, so the motivation to "buy on the dip" naturally weakens.
This rebound is mainly because the previous crash blew up all the long leverage (over 900 million USD, 90% longs), temporarily exhausting sell orders; it is not new real money buying in.
On the derivatives side, leveraged longs are adding positions again, somewhat like the calm before the storm, with another round of liquidation possible at any time.
The chart focuses on two levels:
Upper side 82,000–84,000: especially 84,000, only if it holds above this can the rebound be considered upgraded; otherwise, it is a resistance level.
Lower side 79,800: this is the liquidation trigger line; breaking below it may trigger a new round of chain liquidations.
Don't rush to call a reversal. In the short term, it is most likely still range-bound. The key is to watch ETF capital flow—when it changes from "outflow slowing down" to "real inflow," then it’s not too late to talk about trend reversal. Before that, the rebound looks more like giving bears an entry ticket rather than the start of a bull comeback.Three stock tokens on stage, none ignited themselves today, all are followers of tech beta.
$xTSLA near 365, jumping up and down with Mag7, AI valuation concerns immediately kneeled, no self-catalyst, purely watching Nasdaq's mood.
$xSNDK near 1403, storage is still cutting valuation, YTD up +410% but this month is giving back, a technical rebound not a demand recovery.
$xSPCX near 150, SpaceX equity, pulled back over 3% with tech stocks, no matter how fierce the launch pace is, it can't resist the market beta.
All three are tech beta, no independent trend, wait for AI narrative to stabilize before rising, don't treat stock tokens as a safe haven. ZEC at $1125, would you still dare to hold it?
From 193 to 1690, nearly a 9x increase, everyone is shouting "The King of Privacy Coins Returns" — but a 33% pullback happened in just three weeks, ETFs have had a continuous net outflow of 140 million, and today is the NU7 decision day. Is this wave the last drop before the upgrade, or the final act of whales selling on good news?
Let's look at the surface first: up 500%, pulled back 33%, but support still holds.
Starting from the February 2026 low of $193, ZEC has risen over 500%, with a market cap reaching 19 billion, ranking 9th. Then from the late September high of 1690, it dropped to 1125, a 33% pullback. The 24-hour trading volume is 600-1 billion, daily price broke below the 20-day/50-day EMA (around 1180), RSI at 40-45, MACD below zero line.
The candlesticks tell you: short-term bearish bias, but 1100-1130 is the previous low plus the lower channel boundary; holding this is a golden pit, breaking it is an abyss.
First thing: NU7 decision is today, but the market has already voted in advance
Today, October 20, developers will decide the NU7 mainnet activation height based on testnet results, targeting a November 5 launch. Core changes: block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, throughput tripled; possibly freezing the old Sprout privacy pool (affecting 0.13% of circulating supply, basically negligible).
But look at the market — price dropped from 1690 to 1125, down 33%, ETFs have had a continuous net outflow of 140 million over several weeks. The market is voting with its feet: the upgrade expectation is already priced in.
What’s more painful:
Grayscale’s ZCSH spot ETF previously attracted over 1 billion, now continuously outflowing. Winklevoss submitted a competing ETF with a 0.25% fee — a long-term positive, but short-term means funds are waiting for a lower price.
Selling before the good news lands, buying after — retail investors always do the opposite of whales.
Second thing: Is a 33% pullback enough after a 500% rise?
From 193 to 1690, nearly 9x. The current 1125 is still nearly 5x above the February low.
Those who entered at 200-300 dollars now have 4-5x unrealized gains. Will they sell?
Of course. Every rebound to 1200, 1300 is their window to reduce positions.
But on the other hand:
ZEC is a mature privacy coin, using zk-SNARKs technology, capped at 21 million (similar to BTC), with block rewards halved to 1.5625 ZEC after the second halving. After the Ironwood upgrade, the privacy pool ratio rebounded to 29%, Zakura full nodes shortened sync time, and the quantum resistance roadmap is clear.
Fundamentals are intact; the problem is the price rose too fast.
A pullback after a 500% rise is not a pullback, it’s a liquidation. It liquidates the greed of those chasing highs.
Third thing: Two completely contradictory signals appear technically
First the bad:
Daily price broke below 20-day/50-day EMA, RSI 40-45 neutral to weak, MACD below zero line, 4-hour descending channel continues, volume expands on down days — selling pressure is not yet fully released.
Now the good:
1100-1130 is a triple confluence of previous lows + channel lower boundary + Fibonacci 0.382 retracement. Weekly price is still above the 200-day moving average, long-term uptrend channel intact. If it holds here, it’s a mid-term golden pit.
The key question:
Will 1100 hold?
If it holds, after NU7 launch expect 1300-1500. If it breaks, next stops are 1000 or even 900.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
On one side:
NU7 decision today, targeting November 5 launch, block time cut to 25 seconds
From 193 to 1690, long-term uptrend channel intact
1100-1130 triple support confluence
Long-term demand in privacy sector + 21 million scarcity
On the other side:
ETFs have had a net outflow of 140 million, institutions are withdrawing
33% pullback from the high, daily price broke key moving averages
Early investors have 4-5x unrealized gains, huge selling pressure
If BTC breaks 80k, ZEC with high beta will follow down
Key level 1125, only 25 dollars above support at 1100, 55 dollars below resistance at 1180.
Resistance above: 1180-1200 (short-term critical line) → 1250-1300 → 1500-1690
Support below: 1100-1130 (iron bottom) → 1000 → 900-950
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Don’t move around 1125. Today is decision day, volatility will be intense, entering now risks being shaken out.
If it closes below 1100, lightly short with target 1050-1000, stop loss above 1135.
If 1120-1130 shows volume surge and stabilizes with bullish candles, lightly long for a rebound, target 1180-1200, stop loss 1080.
Mid-term players:
Wait for NU7 launch (around November 5). If upgrade goes smoothly and price holds 1100, build long positions gradually between 1100-1150, target 1300-1500, stop loss 1000.
If it breaks 1000, wait for 900-950 to reassess.
Long-term believers:
ZEC is the last "compliance hope" in the privacy sector. If you believe in long-term privacy demand, dollar-cost average in the 1000-1100 range. But don’t expect another 9x — it’s a slow bull, not a mad dog.
ZEC now is like DASH in 2021 —
After a 30% pullback from the high, everyone shouted "Privacy coins are dead," but after NU7 upgrade landed, price went from 1100 to 1500.
But it could also be like XMR in 2022 —
A 30% pullback is just the beginning, another 50% may be waiting for you.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC For this Netflix earnings report, I lean towards "will exceed expectations."
Previously, if you wanted to watch Netflix at a lower price, there weren't many options. With the ad-supported plan, people who think subscriptions are expensive but don't want to cancel now have another reason to stay. For Netflix, these users not only pay subscription fees but may also bring in advertising revenue. What I am optimistic about is the potential for this part of the revenue to continue growing.
But we can't just see an increase in ad-supported users and assume Netflix is definitely making big profits. How well the ad slots sell, how much advertisers are willing to spend, and how much profit remains in the end—all of these need to be seen. It's lively, but the earnings report must show the money.
Regarding subscription price hikes, I also want to take a closer look. If after the price increase users are still willing to renew, then revenue growth is more solid. But if the price hike causes many cancellations, then we can't just be happy about higher revenue per user. Even I hesitate before buying video memberships, depending on whether there are shows I really want to watch, which truly affects whether I renew.
Then there's content investment. Everyone hopes Netflix will produce more hits, but making shows and buying content costs money. If revenue rises but expenses also increase significantly, the final profit might not be as good as imagined. So besides revenue, I also want to look at profit margins and cash flow this time to confirm whether the extra money actually stays.
This round, I still lean positive, mainly expecting the advertising business and subscription revenue to jointly bring profit surprises. I'll write down my judgment first and come back to check the answers when the earnings report is released.
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 💻 Treat this long position as a code review: The input is Core Trader 02 (0x9c062c…00560) opening a long $SOXL with 10x leverage, position size 524.85 units, nominal value $50,001.99, reference price $95.2691. The position was just opened, and the result hasn't come out yet.
My judgment is: the directional intent is very clear, but it's not enough for me to endorse this as a trading plan. The monitoring provided entry parameters but no exit conditions; just because the code can start doesn't mean the exception handling is properly implemented.
Logically, leverage improves capital efficiency but simultaneously amplifies tolerance pressure. Roughly calculating nominal value divided by leverage corresponds to a margin of about $5,000, but this does not equal the entire wallet risk budget. If the price moves against the position by about 1%, the position loss is approximately $500, which is about 10% of the estimated margin above, not including fees.
A potential bug is misreading "daring to open $50,000" as "direction is more reliable." The amount cannot replace evidence of win rate, and since the data lacks margin mode, stop loss, or other positions, one cannot directly assert that a 10% drop will trigger liquidation. If it were me, I would first complete the exit rules, then evaluate the position size, rather than being attracted by the amount first.
Please help me review: When evaluating this 10x long position, would you prioritize checking the stop loss level or other positions in the account? Which is more likely to overturn my risk assessment, and why? I am still watching BTC in the short term. The ETF outflow mentioned on Sunday has changed: on the US trading day of October 19, it turned into a net inflow of about $527 million, but the hourly price remains weak, so the capital inflow cannot be directly regarded as a reversal.
I will wait for the hourly volume to break back above $82,250 and hold on a pullback before reassessing a bullish bias; if it doesn't break back, I will continue to wait. Money coming back is a good thing, but if the price doesn't cooperate, don't rush to chase.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC Working during the day, only at night do I have a solid block of time to watch the market. When the room quiets down, I see this long position on the screen and pause: Core Trader 02 (0x9c062c…00560) is going long on $SOXL with 10x leverage, a nominal position of about $50,000. The numbers slightly dispel my drowsiness, but I don’t want to mistake this excitement for an opportunity. 🌙
My judgment is: this trade shows that this address is willing to take on long risk, but it’s not enough for me to judge the direction more reliably. It’s a new or added position, not a realized result; profit and loss are still unknown.
I’m more concerned about three things. Nominal position is not principal; with simple 10x leverage, the margin corresponds to about $5,000, so you can’t treat the full $50,000 as actual invested capital; if the price moves 1% against the position, ignoring fees and margin adjustments, the impact on this margin is about 10%. Also, the data doesn’t show other positions or stop-loss arrangements in the account—I can see the direction but not the full risk budget.
A reminder to myself: late at night it’s easiest to mistake someone else’s position for your own reason. Who else is still awake at this hour, watching $SOXL or other assets? When you encounter a 10x long like this, do you first check the margin or look for stop-loss information?JPMCoin's Ethereum launch is notable because it places regulated bank deposits beside the liquidity and tokenized-asset rails institutions already use. For approved clients, 24/7 transfer and collateral functions could reduce settlement friction. Adoption will still depend on whether access rules and bank balance-sheet constraints fit trading workflows.
#JPMCoinOnEthereum Interesting divergence: Perpetual funding rates show BTC longs dominating, while ETH shorts are increasing their positions. The ETF was the same last night, with BTC/SOL/XRP net inflows totaling $62.5 million, and ETH reversing with a $17 million outflow. Smart money votes with their feet—Is ETH at this position a trap or a gold mine? Which side are you on?
$BTC $ETH纳斯达克冲高那一下，真正该盯的不是涨幅，而是仓位有没有被逼着追。 你看到的强势，是重定价的开始，还是又一次挤压前的错觉？ 隔夜美股开盘，纳指100涨1.32%，标普500涨0.53%，更惹眼的是几只杠杆产品：韩国三倍做多KORU涨16.98%，SNDK两倍做多SNXX涨11.40%，半导体三倍做多SOXL涨10.30%，AXTI涨10.54%。第一眼很容易读成"风险偏好回来了"，但我更在意的是，这种涨幅集中在杠杆ETF和高贝塔个股上，说明交易的是预期变化的速度，而不是盈利本身。 换句话说，市场在重新给"降息路径+半导体周期"定价，而且是用最省时间的方式——直接加杠杆去抢β。这层重定价一旦成立，BTC和ETH通常会先感受到风险偏好的温度，尤其是BTC对纳指的正相关在情绪切换时会更明显；山寨则更依赖后续资金愿不愿意从大市值往外溢。但现在的问题是，涨的是杠杆工具，不是现货承接，持仓在变重，脆弱点也在变多。 偏多的路径很清楚：如果纳指站稳、半导体继续领涨，风险偏好会从美股传导到加密，BTC先修复情绪，ETH和高质量山寨再跟上，节奏上更像轮动而非普涨。风险则藏在另一端：杠杆产品涨幅越夸张，越说明$ETH is trapped! The root cause of this weak market has been found!
I already discussed part of the reasons for the market weakness this morning. Today, I will explain the remaining key logic. After the last CPI data release, market concerns about interest rate hikes intensified directly. Now many people are betting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in December, and even the possibility of a rate hike in November is being discussed.
If a rate hike happens in December, the US dollar deposit interest rate will return to the 4.0 range. Compared to the current domestic rate of 2.0, the attraction of this gap is obvious. The market generally expects this rate hike to be a done deal.
If rate hikes continue, the US dollar interest rate could reach 4.25. You can also see the US dollar index recently continuously surging, directly rising from 99 to 101, an increase of 2-3%. This level of volatility is significant. Following this trend, there is a good chance the US dollar index will hit 104.
As long as the US dollar remains strong, institutions and many investors will withdraw funds from high-risk assets and flow into US dollar assets. Whether it's the stock market, the crypto space, or gold, all will face pressure from capital outflows. This is why various markets have collectively weakened recently. $BTC $OKB #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #Chip stocks rebound after eight consecutive declines, can AI trading repair?
Chip stocks finally caught a breather after falling for eight straight days. Overnight US stock futures warmed up, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising nearly 1% intraday, and some semiconductor and optical communication stocks also moving up in the night session.
But don’t rush to conclusions about whether this breath can be sustained. TSMC is a ready example: Q3 revenue and net profit both hit record highs, with solid performance, yet its US ADR still fell after the earnings report. The market’s stance is clear — big money now not only looks at your current earnings but worries that AI investment payback cycles are too long and valuations are too stretched. As soon as earnings reports hint at "burning cash beyond expectations" or "growth peaking," funds turn around and sell off.
So this rebound looks more like a technical correction after overselling, not a fundamental reversal. There’s a saying in the community: the plunge has already priced in short-term negatives, improving the risk-reward ratio. But to confirm the bottom, we need to see if it can hold; if it continues to hit new lows without news, the decline isn’t over.
For the crypto world, the transmission is direct. AI hardware and semiconductors lead global risk appetite; when the leader sneezes, BTC and Ethereum can’t remain unaffected. Tech stocks stabilizing sentiment through a rebound gives BTC the confidence to test resistance above; if the AI sector continues to cut valuations, liquidity in the crypto market will be further drained. $BTC #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC and $ETH are weakening simultaneously, don't rush to bottom-fish! The current market still lacks clear reversal signals.
BTC is at 81387.7, down 1.63% in 24 hours, open interest down 0.50% in 24 hours, trading volume down 2.49%, short-term rebound strength still needs observation.
ETH is at 2380.21, down 2.20%, but trading volume increased against the trend by 4.49%, indicating growing divergence between bulls and bears. Focus on whether it can stabilize around 2380; if it breaks down and the rebound is weak, be cautious of further declines.
SOL is at 103.95, down 1.40%, open interest down 1.42%, trading volume down 8.95%, currently lacking obvious attack signals.
ZEC has the largest drop, down 3.23%, open interest down 4.59%, trading volume down 11.60%, relatively weak in the short term.
My trading judgment:
BTC: Watch for support near 81000; if broken, guard against further decline.
ETH: Keep an eye on 2380; wait for stabilization before considering a rebound; be cautious about going long if it breaks down.
SOL: Observe support near 103; no rush to chase orders.
ZEC: Wait for a stop in the decline; do not blindly bottom-fish.
Current strategy: Cautiously observe and wait for price confirmation. A decrease in open interest does not necessarily mean a drop, but before reversal signals appear, there is no need to bet early. Control risk first, then look for opportunities. From this perspective, $DOGE's opportunity still depends on whether it can get full support from X money. After X launched Cashtag Partner last time, DOGE's narrative did revive a bit, with large addresses hoarding 240 million tokens in 5 days.
Now that X money has no new moves and Musk is busy building flying cars, DOGE can only follow the overall market ETF outflows and decline.
$PEPE is relatively better. After Sun cut his holdings the day before yesterday, community consensus has picked up a bit. Also, the top 100 wallets control 77%, a very high concentration, which is favorable for pumping the price.
Of course, pumping also needs to be supported by a story. Without new institutional products or adoption progress, whales can't move the price.
$TRUMP still consistently dumps regularly, don't expect otherwise. The chip unlock for Trump's team will continue until the end of next year, so retail investors buying in are just giving money to Trump.Trump's coin, tears of the retail investors: $TRUMP allowed the family company to withdraw $616 million, leaving retail investors with only $500 million.
Reuters' investigation this week laid out the numbers clearly.
1 billion $TRUMP tokens, 800 million never entered the public market.
CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight—both companies linked to the Trump family—directly hold 80% of the tokens.
Retail investors poured in $1.2 billion, but their holdings are now worth only $521 million.
The coin price crashed from $75.35 to $1.69, a 97% drop.
Here comes the most surreal part.
GetTrumpMemes official website announced: on November 22, the third $TRUMP major holder dinner.
Trump himself will attend, and the top 185 token holders are invited.
On one side, retail investors are halved in value; on the other, the president dines with the big holders—this isn’t selling a meme, it’s clearly selling tickets.
I think, this isn’t a coin, it’s a VIP membership card issued on Solana.
With 80% of tokens held by the issuer, the price is always controlled by them.
When it rises, it’s because the whales want it to rise; when it falls, it’s because the whales are selling.
Taking the hit? That’s paying for someone else’s dinner with your own salary.
My stance is clear: watch but don’t touch.
At $1.69 for $TRUMP, I won’t bottom-fish or chase the rebound.
Unless it breaks above $3 with volume and holds, any pump I consider a bull trap. From my limited understanding of $CRWV
The only way for crwv to go bankrupt is if the money can't be spent
Rising interest rates won't kill crwv
At most, it will just lower growth expectations
The leveraged business of borrowing money to make CPUs and other rapidly depreciating goods to create added value and sell them is destined to have highly volatile financial reports that follow project execution progress during the rapid expansion phase before reaching a certain scale
Although every time leverage is increased, it's only to deleverage faster
But each time it's essentially starting the gamble from scratch
In a "mature" financial market like the US, this is the least favored
Wall Street loves to "gamble"
But also prides itself on disliking "gambling"
Moreover, in this industry, currently, each company's power capacity will always limit their imagination, and there seems to be no possibility of independently breaking the ceiling
In a business where the ceiling can be calculated
Equity value can never fully meet expectations
From the perspective of trading stocks, it becomes a game of continuously converging and breaking through into new ranges, a back-and-forth race
But this does not prevent the next 18 months
crwv, nbis, iren—the three fools—will all enter their craziest phase
There will definitely be big storms but also abundant catches
Ultimately, ultimately
Perhaps a completely different architecture of an efficient large model will emerge
The urgency for computing power growth will gradually decline or even regress
All neocloud will also be acquired by the Seven Sisters or usgov and then fade into obscurity#OpenAI与Anthropic上市竞赛升温
The boss has something to say
The IPO race between OpenAI and Anthropic is heating up. OpenAI is accelerating a roughly $30 billion fundraising round, targeting a valuation exceeding 1.4 trillion, aiming to lock in institutional funds before Anthropic's expected November IPO. On Anthropic's side, they are pushing a $60 billion chip financing and negotiating about a $45 billion computing power supply agreement with Nscale.
I think this is a fierce money-grabbing battle. A comment in the discussion section hits the mark: raising funds before Anthropic's IPO to avoid public valuation multiples becoming an unfavorable anchor. Whoever goes public first sets the valuation benchmark, and the other side can only follow. So both sides are racing against time, desperately raising money.
This is indirectly bearish for crypto. These two giants are simultaneously absorbing capital, pushing risk funds further into the AI track. Liquidity from Bitcoin and altcoins will be drained. Plus, differences in revenue accounting between the two companies are fueling market skepticism about the high valuations.
Bitcoin showed little movement today. I took three trades successfully in yesterday's live stream and am now out of positions. Before the FOMC, I won't bet on a one-sided move; watching if the 80,000 level can hold. If it holds, expect consolidation; if it breaks, deeper correction is likely. Resistance above is between 84,000 and 85,000. No chasing the rally or panic selling; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; trades must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Bitcoin is around 81,400 today. The 82,000 support level broke today, and it broke with volume, not a false break. Once this level breaks, the space below opens up. 80,000 is the next psychological barrier and also the key cost line repeatedly emphasized by Glassnode. After breaking below 80,000, the gap zone is between 78,000 and 76,000. The current resistance above has dropped to 82,500 to 83,000. Only by reclaiming 83,500 can we say this downtrend has paused. I know many people want to bottom-fish now because ETFs are flowing in, MVRV has dropped to 25.7%, entering a historical accumulation zone, Google search interest is at a six-year low, which Willy Woo calls a contrarian buy point, and Swan's Klippsten also says the record holder supply suggests an early bottom. These signals are all valid, but they are medium-term signals, not today's buy point. Today's buy point requires seeing one of two things: either the 80,000 round number is defended with volume rebound, or a long lower shadow candle followed by a confirming bullish candle the next day. Before either of these happens, any bottom-fishing is like catching a falling knife, because the bulls are still being cleared out, and this clearing process usually doesn't last just one day. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
According to multiple data sources including Farside and SoSoValue, on October 19 (Monday), the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $527 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since September 22. BlackRock's IBIT contributed approximately $665 million, offsetting outflows from FBTC and GBTC. This day directly reversed the net outflow of about $82.4 million on October 16.
$BTC briefly rebounded to around 83k on the 19th, then retreated to oscillate between 81.3k and 81.5k on the 20th. It had previously dipped close to 80k.
Can the rebound continue? In the short term, conditions allow continuation, but sustainability depends on follow-up capital rather than a single-day inflow.
The large inflow on the 19th indicates a clear return of institutional funds, with IBIT leading as a positive signal.
The price has repeatedly found support near 80k, and the rebound on the 19th shows buying interest remains.
On the macro side, falling oil prices and easing US Treasury yields provide some support for risk assets.
October overall still shows net outflows; single-day inflows need continuous confirmation, otherwise they are easily mistaken for a rebound rather than a trend reversal.
The Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting is approaching, and the market remains sensitive to the interest rate path; any hawkish signals could suppress the rebound.
Leverage in positions remains high, with concentrated liquidations, making the rebound prone to long liquidations.
Altcoins have been more active recently, showing signs of capital diversion, while the mainstream lacks sustained independent drivers. $BTC #ETF continues to flow out, can BTC's rebound continue?
ETF is flowing out, but the price is bouncing up; this kind of divergence is the easiest to deceive.
From October 12 to 16, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of about $229 million, and Ethereum's outflow was even more severe, reaching $320 million. On October 19, Bitcoin ETF had a single-day outflow of $139 million. Institutional buying is retreating, this is an ironclad fact, the money is genuinely withdrawing.
But BTC did bounce from around 80,000 to 83,000, and now it is fluctuating near 82,000. Funds are withdrawing, yet the price is rising—why? The two comments under the community post hit the point. This rebound is not driven by new money buying in, but by shorts covering and pushing the price up. It's a battle of existing funds; when shorts cover, the price naturally rebounds. Without incremental funds entering, the foundation of this rebound is very weak, and its sustainability cannot be guaranteed.
It's like water without a source; once drained, it's gone.
Now at the 83,000 level, which is a previously densely trapped zone, without real incremental buying with hard cash, it's hard to break through in one go. The 80,000 level below is an important psychological defense line. If ETFs continue to dump and break below 80,000, triggering long positions to deleverage, that will be the real bottom.
In terms of operation, the biggest taboo now is chasing highs. Jumping in just because it’s red can easily get you trapped halfway up the mountain. For those holding positions, reduce holdings near resistance levels during the rebound and pocket the profits. $BTC Macro: Mainly headwinds
• US September CPI rebounded to 3.7%, limiting rate cut space; the Federal Reserve leans toward "higher for longer," with the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 5.2%.
• US stocks, especially long-duration growth stocks, are under pressure; VIX surged sharply in a single week, with funds withdrawing from overvalued assets.
• Safe-haven funds prefer gold; Bitcoin currently behaves as a risk asset rather than a safe haven.
Bitcoin: Stable supply, weak marginal buying
• About 83% of circulating supply has been dormant long-term; exchange balances remain below the start of the year, and core holders have not systematically sold.
• However, US spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million last week; spot demand turned negative, with whale accumulation diverging.
• Key ranges: $80,000 as double-bottom support, $82,000 as resistance; breaking below $80,000 may test $75,000, while holding above $82,000 could test $85,000–$87,000.
Scenario analysis
1. Range-bound oscillation (higher probability): $75,000–$82,000 consumption, awaiting Fed signals.
2. Follow risk asset recovery (medium probability): tech earnings improve + ETF net inflows, testing $82,000–$87,000.
3. Secondary deleveraging (lower probability): inflation exceeds expectations again or accelerated ETF outflows, breaking below $80,000, testing $75,000 or lower.
In short: Before the Fed gives a clear direction, Bitcoin’s short-term price moves essentially reflect bets on macro risk appetite rather than an independent crypto cycle. $BTC $ETH $SOL $PEPE carrying the sedan chair for Sun Geci?The 1inch card is shutting down; new users haven't been able to register for a long time, and existing users have been told to withdraw or spend their balances before December 18.
The money has never actually been in 1inch's hands—it’s held in wallets by the licensed electronic money institution Monavate. Account closures, KYC, and data are handled by Crypto Life, and even the card's shutdown date is decided by the issuer and service provider.
The cashback on card spending is funded by the project side, covering the full costs of issuing, compliance, and KYC. When the crypto market tightens, this card is the first to be cut.
After account closure, redemption can be requested for up to six years, which sounds generous, but frankly, this money has never been recorded in the protocol’s accounts from start to finish.
$BTC
$ETH
$1INCH #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins The bulls have been having a tough time these past couple of days; funds are flowing in, but prices keep grinding down. BTC has slid from 83,035 all the way down to 81,420, losing the 82,000 level again; ETH dropped from 2,443 to 2,380, breaking below 2,400 as soon as it was tested; HYPE retreated from 80.34 to 78.23, failing to hold 80. In the last 24 hours, HYPE fell 2.21%, the worst performer, while over the week ETH dropped 4.74%, the weakest.
The strangest thing is the capital flow. The US BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $527 million in a single day, the strongest since September; BlackRock's IBIT alone brought in $665 million, offsetting redemptions from Fidelity and Grayscale. Yet prices continue to drift down, indicating heavier profit-taking pressure above. Regulation is also tightening: the French National Assembly passed an amendment taxing stablecoin exchanges, self-custody wallet declarations and exit taxes are still on the table; Mastercard is imposing stablecoin risk screening on banks, checking on-chain transactions before settlement. Visa and Mesh have expanded payment channels to 175 million merchants, but compliance costs are piling up, making everyday usability more expensive.
So there's no rush to bottom-fish now. Wait for two signals: whether ETF net inflows can continue, and whether BTC can reclaim and close above 83,000 and 82,000. Without these signals, don't get itchy-handed, especially don't bet on a rebound with assets like HYPE.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE HBAR is holding above $0.082, with a market cap of 3.6 billion but a daily volume of only 2.71 million, resulting in a turnover rate of less than 0.008%. This is not a trading market at all, but rather market makers entertaining themselves. The 24-hour price drop is less than 1%, with the volatility range compressed between 0.0819 and 0.0858, and very short upper and lower shadows—typical low-volume sideways trading where buyers and sellers have reached a tacit agreement, and no one wants to make the first move. Smart money signals show net short positions and zero net holdings; institutions are neither long nor short, effectively absent, indicating a lack of institutional motivation to participate at the current valuation range. Social sentiment is also a vacuum, with zero mentions and zero bias; not even FUD is being generated. This kind of cold reception is scarier than negative news, meaning the project has completely fallen out of the narrative spotlight. Core judgment: HBAR has fallen into a liquidity black hole, with no incremental funds, no narrative catalysts, and no institutional backing. Unless there is a major ecological breakthrough, it is highly likely to continue grinding time for space around the 0.08 level.Recently, the feeling has become increasingly intense
This month, Bitcoin will soon drop to 75,000
The Federal Reserve has entered a silent period, aiming to prevent officials from speaking to guide market trends. Only rotten eggs need to be covered up. Currently, crude oil remains high, US Treasury yields are also high, draining global liquidity. Meanwhile, last month's CPI-PPI exceeding expectations already indicates that inflation has reached a very serious level. The monetary meeting next Tuesday must bring up the topic of rate hikes!
At the same time, looking at the market structure, there is a large amount of buying support at the 80,000 Bitcoin level. Every time it touches here, it rebounds by 3,000-4,000 points, but now the rebound highs are gradually decreasing, repeatedly testing this major support at 80,000. As long as it breaks below here, the lower area will be a liquidity vacuum, and the market will accelerate towards 75,000 $BTC $ETH Retail investors' behavior never changes: when prices fall, the group chat floods with messages like "It's over, the bull market is finished, it's going to be halved again," but very few actually dare to buy; however, once prices rise for several consecutive days and break a key level, WeChat Moments and Weibo immediately buzz with excitement, with target prices shouted from 80,000 all the way up to 100,000 or 120,000, afraid of missing out. They fear the drop and rush the rise. But looking at the bigger picture: Bitcoin rose more than 40% in Q3, ETFs have seen large inflows previously, and the long-term supply and demand hasn't worsened; the short-term fluctuations are just caused by the Federal Reserve meetings and inflation data. Technically: BTC is oscillating between 82,000-83,500, holding above the 50-day moving average at 80,600, with support at 80,000-81,000 and resistance first at 85,000. ETH is consolidating around 2,400, holding the 200-day moving average at 2,345, with short-term resistance at 2,480-2,500—the structure is intact, but momentum is moderate; an effective breakout is needed to open a major trend. The real opportunities have always been hidden when no one dares to touch them. Waiting until the crowd gets lively to chase means the price is already expensive.$SUI
Sui's object-based model and the Move language let many transactions run in parallel, which suits apps with heavy simultaneous activity. That's the technical case. The practical one is harder: developers need reasons to build here instead of on chains with larger communities. Token unlock schedules also deserve attention, since supply entering circulation can weigh on sentiment.Altcoin ETFs Enter a "Moment of Divergence": Numbered Ones Feast, Unnumbered Ones Watch
At this time last year, the market was still betting on "which altcoin ETF will get approved." Now the answer is on the table—and it's harsher than expected.
The first batch has already launched, forming clear tiers:
SOL fired the first shot (Bitwise launched in October), XRP's REX-Osprey attracted $1.37 billion AUM right at launch, DOGE became the first-ever memecoin ETF in history, LTC and HBAR quietly launched the same week. LINK and AVAX are even more competitive—each has two issuers vying for market share, with AVAX also offering staking rewards.
The script for the second batch is already written:
ADA is the "cleanest" story left: CME futures launch in February, a six-month clock runs to August, and the SEC's final deadline is October 23—this week. Grayscale, VanEck, Bitwise, and Canary are all in line.
Bitwise made a sweeping filing on December 30 last year for 11 assets including AAVE, SUI, TAO, NEAR, aiming for a March 16 effective date—the largest single batch filing in history.
Regulators are also stepping on the gas: the SEC's general listing standards have shortened review cycles from a maximum of 240 days to about 75 days.
But please note, the point I want to make is not "bullishness," but divergence.
ETF funds will not be evenly distributed across the market; they will only flow to assets covered by funds—coins backed by ETFs see narrower bid-ask spreads and deeper liquidity; coins with similar technology but no fund support get nothing.
After XRP and LTC ETFs get approved in early 2026, the so-called "altcoin season" will have shifted from retail frenzy to an institutional asset rebalancing event. Seyfat's warning is more straightforward: after hundreds of new ETFs, a major reshuffle is likely at year-end, leaving only the most liquid survivors.
The pricing logic for altcoins is shifting from "narrative" to "whether there is an institutional channel."#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点
Netflix will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes tonight, with the market focusing on advertising as a new growth driver. The company guides revenue of $12.86 billion and an operating margin of 33.2%, showing significant improvement compared to the same period last year, with cost reductions and subscriber price increases continuing to pay off. Subscription growth is gradually slowing, and low-priced ad-supported plans are key to incremental growth. Whether advertising revenue and ad ARPU can be maintained will determine the quality of this earnings report. Risks include high profits relying on price hikes and cost control, as well as watching for pressure on new subscriptions and user retention. Hit content and competition in the advertising industry will also bring uncertainties.Come join the S3 prediction event!
This time it's a grand prize + battle royale mode: participate in all earnings season predictions, advance if you win, eliminated if you lose, last person standing wins 1WU!
SpaceX will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes tonight. I bought Yes, believing revenue is very likely to exceed expectations.
The market currently expects revenue between $12.7 billion and $12.9 billion, up about 65% from last quarter, with adjusted EPS around $0.15. If they can achieve this, it will be the first profitable quarter since going public.
The first reason I am optimistic is Q2's performance. Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, while the market only expected $6.93 billion; EPS loss was $0.09, market expected a loss of $0.26.
The second reason is the AI computing power business. This segment was only $2.56 billion in Q2, but Q3 is expected to reach about $6.4 billion. It sounds like a big jump, but at the end of Q2, there were already $47.5 billion in orders on hand, and before the earnings report, they signed a fourth computing power hosting contract, annualized at about $13 billion.
However, even if revenue exceeds expectations, the stock price may not rise. Q2 was like this: revenue beat expectations, but after-hours stock price once dropped more than 8%, mainly due to concerns over high capital expenditures. This time, the market expects capital expenditures around $19.6 billion, with free cash flow roughly negative $11.6 billion. So I am betting on revenue beating expectations, not on the stock price rising
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 This PEPE rebound feels a bit like "false fire" 🔥
Current price is 0.00000417, up 2.7%, but volume hasn't kept up; 1-hour participation is only 0.28x. In other words, the price moved, but the money hasn't arrived 💸. There's direct resistance at 0.00000419, and further up, 0.00000430 and 0.00000445 are all tough levels; on the downside, losing 0.00000401 means short-term weakness, while 0.00000380–0.00000392 is the lifeline—breaking below that would look really bad 😬.
More exciting is the leverage: futures trading volume is over 5 times spot, with open interest at two to three hundred million dollars. Recently, long positions account for nearly 80% of liquidations, and leveraged longs are being taken out 📉. The big whales aren't peaceful either—Sun Yuchen's address suddenly received 720 trillion PEPE, about 28.44 million USD; no one knows what he plans, raising a big question mark on the supply side 🐋. ETF? Canary has filed documents but hasn't been approved yet, so don't rush to see it as a positive 🎫. Deflationary burns continue, but short-term depends on capital and sentiment.
$SPCX $ETH $SOL
Watch these four things: whether breaking 0.00000419 comes with volume, what happens after the 720 trillion move, how open interest and funding rates change, and whether BTC holds 80,000 👀. Only a volume-backed breakout looks decent; if it can't break through after a long attack, it will likely retest core support. Don't get carried away, PEPE flips faster than flipping a page ⚡️#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #Visa partners with Mesh to expand stablecoin payments to 175 million merchants
What impact does this have?
First, the "breaking out" of stablecoins is fully unlocked. Previously, when we used U, it was mostly for transfers within the crypto circle or spending at some small shops that specifically supported cryptocurrencies, which had a very high threshold. Now Visa directly covers 175 million merchants, effectively connecting the capillaries of Web2 to the heart of Web3. You can buy a cup of coffee or a burger on the street and pay directly with U. This provides stablecoins with a real-world application scenario, no longer just a pure speculation tool.
Second, compliant stablecoins (like USDC) are going to benefit big. Giants like Visa and Mastercard choose partners based primarily on compliance and transparency of underlying assets. USDC is backed by BlackRock and Circle, making it the cleanest. The entry of these payment giants will strongly boost USDC's circulation. If the U you hold is less compliant, it might not be usable in some of these giant ecosystems in the future.
Here’s my view. In the long run, this is a landmark event for crypto assets moving mainstream, absolutely very positive. But for traders, be clear that this kind of news has little short-term impact on the candlestick charts; today USDC and USDT prices remain steady as ever. Because this is infrastructure, not a pump catalyst. The real short-term direction of BTC is still determined by macro data.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH $BTC On-Chain Breaking News!
At 2:23 AM Beijing time on October 19,
a Bitcoin old wallet from 2013 suddenly moved,
transferring all 411.45 bitcoins in one transaction to a new address, now worth $34 million.
The most striking thing about this transfer is not the amount,
but a chilling detail that makes netizens shudder.
This wallet hadn’t moved once in 13 years,
but careful netizens noticed that during these 13 years,
the wallet kept receiving tiny fractions of coins worth a few cents, dozens of times in total,
several of which have been flagged as scam addresses.
This is a scam targeting whales called "address pollution."
Scammers create a fake address that looks almost identical to yours,
send you a few cents first, so the fake address gets mixed into your transaction history.
Later, when you transfer coins and copy from the history for convenience, a slip of the hand copying the wrong address
sends your coins straight into the scammer’s pocket, unrecoverable.
The old whale didn’t fall for it but didn’t bet on never slipping up either,
so moved all coins into a clean new address and abandoned the old one.
The moving fee was less than 2 RMB,
so the scammers waited in vain for over a decade.
Coincidentally, the day before, two other old wallets that had been dormant for twelve or thirteen years also moved,
167 and 248 coins respectively, totaling 416.7 coins, also transferred in one transaction to a new address.
Three old wallets in two days, 411.45 matches 416.69, all hovering around 410 coins.账面上是红的，但我的逻辑没变，理由有三条👇 1️⃣ 空间不够。现价离 4,300 还差三个多点，黄金一周走出这种单边行情，只在大事件冲击的时候才有，比如突发地缘冲突或者央行意外放鹰鸽。本周日历上没有这么大的事。 2️⃣ 高位容易犹豫。金价已经在高位来回好几周了，每次冲上来都有获利盘砸。4,200 附近是第一道关，4,300 是心理整数关，两道关一周连破，概率不高。 3️⃣ 赔率算得过来。No 卖 92¢，意思是市场只给「触及」一成左右的概率，我觉得真实概率还要更低。这单本来就是低波动、稳拿的仓位，不是去博翻倍。 现在的 -3.9% 只是盘口情绪在晃，不是结果。只要本周最高价没碰到 4,300，到期每份就按 1 XP 结算，这 500 XP 收回大约 540，赚 8% 左右。 最大的风险我也想清楚了：周中要是出现避险大消息，金价急拉，这单会很疼。所以我只用了一部分 XP，没有满仓。 你觉得这周黄金能碰到 4300 吗？Google is setting rules for crypto ads in the UAE, effective tomorrow (October 21).
Google Ads policy update: For crypto exchange and software wallet ads targeting UAE users, advertisers must hold a license from one of four regulatory bodies: Capital Market Authority (CMA), Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA), or Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), and also pass Google's ad qualification certification.
On the surface, this looks like an "expansion": previously only VARA and FSRA were recognized, now CMA and DFSA are included.
But the actual threshold is raised: license + Google certification + compliance with local laws are all mandatory; CFD licenses under the same brand do not automatically cover crypto ads, each product line must be approved separately.
I think this is a signal, not noise: the UAE is a gateway for Middle Eastern crypto capital, and Google aligning ad thresholds with local virtual asset laws means acting as a gatekeeper for regulatory "traffic entry."
In the long run, mainstream assets like $BTC might actually benefit: clearer regulation means institutional funds enter with fewer concerns.
What do you think: is Google's move "legalizing" crypto ads, or blocking the path for small and medium projects?
$BTC
#CryptoAds #UAENEAR looks a bit rough today, one of the worst performers among the major coins 📉
Down about 7% in 24 hours, currently at 4.71. The daily chart has been dropping from the high of 6.06 on the 12th, with each rebound lower than the last: yesterday 5.135, today only up to 4.99. This afternoon it broke through the support zone of 4.74–4.76.
Funding rate is slightly negative, shorts aren’t too crowded, but it also means few dare to take the other side.
Key levels I’m watching:
Above: 4.78–4.81, where it hovered from noon to afternoon today; now that’s broken, it will likely become resistance on a pullback.
Higher: 4.87–4.89, the platform from last night to this morning.
Below: 4.62–4.63 is yesterday’s low, then 4.53 is the low on the 15th.
My plan:
📌 Bias: bearish, waiting for a retracement
📌 Entry: 4.78–4.81
📌 Stop loss: 4.89, if it closes back above last night’s platform, admit the plan is wrong
📌 Target: take half off at 4.63, the rest at 4.53
If it drops straight to around 4.62 without a retracement, I won’t chase shorts there; the risk/reward is too poor. If the 4H closes back above 4.89, this plan is void.
$NEAR #NEAR #ContractStrategy
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYORThe South Korean market closed down nearly 4 points today, ending at 5552.
Looking back a month, this index has dropped from 7080 to now, losing more than 20%. Hynix is even more dramatic, down 35% from its peak.
Here's how the money moved today: foreign investors sold over 400 million USD, institutions sold over 300 million, and retail investors stubbornly bought over 600 million, but in the end, it still couldn't hold.
Last night, US chip stocks actually rebounded by more than a point, but Asia still fell today. So now the cut is no longer about how the US market moved last night, but someone is recalculating how much the AI investment is really worth. Today, a Korean data center company went public and broke its IPO price; this kind of event is more telling than any slogans. There are also rumors that Hynix's subsidiary plans to list separately in the US, but this is unconfirmed, so don't take it seriously.
My macro readings have dropped sharply these past two days; whenever I write about local dogs, people come in. Fine, watch whatever you want.
As for Bitcoin, from September 23 to today, others have dropped more than 20%, but it only fell 5 points, hovering between 81,000 and 83,000 in the past ten days, today at 81,700. When chips evaporated a trillion last week, I said in the square that it wouldn't follow this wave, and that still holds true today.
80,000 is a threshold. If it really falls below, my theory is invalid, and I'll admit it honestly. If it holds, then it's still a long position. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% Let me talk a bit about yesterday's gold short position; it went so smoothly, basically played out exactly as planned.
Earlier, quite a few people saw some stirrings in the geopolitical area and got all hyped up, shouting that gold was about to take off, as if they wanted to buy out the floor price. I said clearly at the time, don't get carried away, this move is just a technical rebound, not a trend reversal. The interest rate constraint is still in place, and neither the dollar nor US Treasury yields are to be underestimated, so where does gold get the confidence to keep surging upward?
And what happened? After the surge, it softened and dropped all the way down. Our short positions were steadily profitable. Isn't this much better than chasing highs and selling lows?
This morning it bounced a little, and some people started to panic, asking if they were going to miss out. I advise you to stay calm. This small rebound at this level is basically another chance for the bears. Look at the daily chart, each high is lower than the last, structurally still weak, with no sign of reversal.
So the strategy is simple: wait for it to creep up again, around 4160 to 4180, then continue to short, with the first target near 4115. Don't fear the rise; fear that you won't dare to short. $XAUFrom the perspective of holding period, distinguish between short-term event-driven and long-term fundamental market trends.
Price increases driven by positive events are short-lived; market trends driven by continuous fundamental improvements can withstand multiple pullbacks.
For $BTC, look at the long-term cycle position; for $ETH, distinguish the type of market driver. Layered screening: rallies triggered by news events are suitable for short-term trading, not for long-term holding.
Tracking target list:
🟠BTC｜Long-term cycle benchmark
🔵ETH｜Market driver gauge
🟣UNI｜DEX leader
🟢LINK｜Oracle
🔷CRV｜Stablecoin swap
Key observation of BTC and ETH relative strength:
With continuous fundamental improvement combined with an upward market cycle, the trend can be held long-term; if driven purely by news stimuli without significant new capital inflow into BTC, the rise is only suitable for short-term quick in-and-out trading.