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On August 19, Bitcoin surged straight up from around $64,000, reaching an intraday high of $69,888.
Within 24 hours, $1.44 billion in short positions were wiped out in one wave. 110,000 people were liquidated.
What’s different about this rebound compared to before?
Is it a real reversal or just a one-time pulse?
This rebound indeed has "quality."
First, the macro policy is structural, not just temporary rhetoric.
The U.S. Treasury announced it will double the long-term Treasury buyback size from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
This is not empty talk; it’s a scheduled policy change. Once the news broke, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged from 5.34% (the highest since 2007) directly down to 5.19%. As yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin decreases.
Second, ETF funds are real.
On August 17, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $297.6 million, followed by another $189.3 million on August 18, totaling $487 million over two days. BlackRock’s IBIT led the way.
This reversed the previous continuous outflow pressure. This is not empty talk; it’s real money.
Third, regulatory signals are improving.
The White House held a crypto meeting, and Trump publicly pressured Congress to pass the "Clear Act." Meanwhile, the SEC proposed new rules exempting certain token issuances from securities registration requirements.
Regulatory uncertainty is decreasing. The guardrails for institutional entry are being set up.
Fourth, on-chain data is leaning positive.
Net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges continue—coins are moving from exchanges to cold wallets $BTC I have to admit I was wrong; traditional tech stocks like $SOXL and $NVDA are under pressure. Historically, tech bubbles never burst on their own—they are popped by the U.S. government.
Assuming, and I emphasize assuming, that the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing, long-term interest rates hold steady, and bank interest rates remain high (redefining what is considered reasonable), BTC, ETH, and other inflation-resistant or domestic currency credit hedges will skyrocket. People's money simply won't be enough, and the Big Seven tech giants will become the primary targets for extraction. However... the U.S. has supported these giants for decades, and now it's time for them to pay their dues!
$BTC The entire market is excitedly turning green due to the combination of ETF capital inflows + macro factors + short squeeze, not simply spot buying pressure. As I predicted yesterday, BTC is still hovering around the 72-75k U range this morning.
Currently, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded about 517.2 million USD net inflow during the session on 8/19 (strong force). If the market structure follows the pattern of price increase → institutional buying → liquidity increase → breaking resistance lev Macro and Regulation Are Supporting $BTC and $ETH $BTC has climbed above $73K, while $ETH has broken $2.3K as Treasury buybacks improve liquidity expectations. ETF demand is strengthening institutional support. Regulatory momentum adds another catalyst, with the White House urging Congress to advance the Clarity Act and establish clearer digital-asset rules. However, yields and geopolitical risks remain key volatility drivers. If liquidity improves, $BTC and $ETH could extend gains. #BTCBreaks72我觉得，市场现在真正麻烦的并不是“美联储下次会不会加息”这一道选择题，而是大家原本相信的单一剧本突然失效了。过去一段时间，许多资产的定价都建立在同一个假设上：通胀会继续回落，政策下一步只能等待或者转松。最新会议纪要提醒我们，政策路径重新出现了分叉。 事实是，7 月会议以 9 比 3 维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 3.5%–3.75%，三名委员当时倾向加息 25 个基点。纪要还显示，如果通胀不能持续回落，许多与会者认为后续可能需要进一步收紧。这里最容易被误读的地方，是把“可能需要”直接翻译成“加息已经确定”。它不是决定，只是说明加息重新回到了可讨论的工具箱里。 我的判断是，这种变化首先冲击的不是某一个币或某一只股票，而是风险资产共同依赖的估值底座。当市场只相信降息时，资金会愿意为更远期、更不确定的收益支付高价格；一旦政策有了两条甚至三条路，投资者就会提高对风险的补偿要求。实际利率、美元和短端美债收益率如果同步上行，加密资产这种没有固定现金流、又高度依赖全球流动性的品种，通常会更敏感。反过来，如果接下来的通胀数据明显降温，纪要里的鹰派讨论也可能很快失去分量。 所以我不会把这份纪要当成简单的看$BTC broke 72,000, but the real test is from midnight to 8 AM
BTC is now at 72,440, up over 6% in 24 hours, just breaking through $72,000, with an intraday high of 72,397. It has risen from 64k to 72k in two days, a gain of over 10%. The bulls have already popped the champagne.
But don’t rush. It’s currently midnight, the US stock market has closed, and the ETF channel is shut. From night until 8 AM, only the Asian session is active, with the thinnest liquidity of the day. For $BTC, which has risen 10%, this time period is the most prone to trouble.
Two details are worth watching:
First, the 24-hour trading volume is 62.4 billion, more than double the usual, with intense turnover; profit-taking and buyers are transferring funds to each other deep into the night! Second, this rally was fueled by 3.1 billion in short liquidations; after the shorts are cleared, the driving force weakens, and further gains will depend on real money from the bulls.
My judgment: It’s highly unlikely to continue squeezing shorts after 8 AM. If it holds above 70,500 overnight and consolidates between 71,000-73,000 in the morning, that’s a healthy trend; if it falls below 70,000 overnight, a dip to 69,500 (the 200-day moving average) is possible. The first pullback after a breakout is never shallow.
In short: The bias remains bullish, but in terms of pace, the morning is more likely a breather than a charge. Those chasing now will probably face some pain in the morning.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ BTC's current funding rate is positive but not extreme, indicating a bullish market that is not yet overheated.
If the funding rate quickly rises while the price remains around $72,000, it suggests that the longs are becoming crowded, and it is not advisable to continue adding positions at that time.#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ $BTC bought for a few hundred dollars 11 years ago has finally awakened, and the first move is a sale of $86 million. Seeing this news, my first reaction is not panic but admiration. The initial cost of three to four hundred dollars has now multiplied 166 times; such composure deserves to make a fortune. But on reflection, the timing of these old holders waking up now is very intriguing. In the past 24 hours, 28 wallets that hadn't moved for a long time transferred a tot📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 21)
Bears dominated the market with overwhelming control, with 24-hour liquidations surpassing $550 million, and short squeeze momentum continuing to burn...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $100 million $1.5483 million $99.9831 million
4 hours $130 million $2.3961 million $120 million
12 hours $200 million $14.1868 million $180 million
24 hours $550 million $29.8678 million $520 million
From BTC liquidation data: In 1 hour, bears crushed bulls, with bears 64.5 times the size of bulls, approaching $100 million in scale, showing extreme dominance; in 4 hours, the bear multiplier slightly decreased, bears were 50 times bulls, liquidation volume surged to $120 million, bears continued to dominate but the multiplier slightly retreated from extreme levels; in 12 hours, bear momentum collapsed, bears were only 12.7 times bulls, liquidation volume rose to $180 million, bears still dominant but multiplier sharply dropped; in 24 hours, bears had a second surge, with $520 million in bear liquidations versus $30 million in bull liquidations, bears were 17.4 times bulls, cumulative liquidations exceeded $550 million. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 36.4% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderate to low concentration—recent 12-hour new liquidations reached $350 million, with bears regaining strength in the latter half of 24 hours to complete a second surge. The bear dominance multiplier dropped from 64.5 times at 1 hour to 12.7 times at 12 hours, then rebounded to 17.4 times at 24 hours, showing a "V-shaped reversal" in short squeeze momentum, with a violent shakeout followed by renewed surge, bears establishing comprehensive suppression over 24 hours. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 21
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: liquidity valve loosening, policy divergence intensifying, and consumer IP iteration—three forces resonating on the same trading day.
₿ BTC Breaks Through $72,000: Epic Short Squeeze
On August 20, Bitcoin violently surged past $72,000, rising over 11% in 24 hours. The triggers were threefold: the U.S. Treasury raised the debt repurchase limit to $4 billion; the White House pushed forward crypto legislation again; after breaking key resistance, shorts were forcefully liquidated.
Liquidation data was brutal—188,000 people liquidated globally, totaling $3.34 billion, with shorts accounting for $3 billion, marking Bitcoin's first-ever single-day short liquidation exceeding $1 billion. After six weeks of sideways trading, the breakout was confirmed, though "false breakout" controversy remains—spot and futures market demand turned positive simultaneously for the first time since October last year; if sustained for another month, a new bull market may begin.
🏛️ Federal Reserve July Minutes: Hawks Far Outnumber Votes
The August 19 minutes showed the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with three regional Fed presidents advocating hikes. The hawkish camp far outnumbered the three dissenters—many participants favored hikes, and further tightening may be necessary if inflation does not fall. However, the market is pricing in rate cuts, with September cut probability rising to 81.2%. The more hawkish the minutes, the more dovish the market, because the market prices in "economic slowdown."
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Slows, Starry Man Takes Over
On August 20, Pop Mart's 2026 half-year report showed revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan, up 9.5%. The IP landscape underwent drastic restructuring—LABUBU series revenue was 4.45 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year but still first; new IP "Starry Man" revenue soared 580.6% to 2.65 billion yuan, ranking second. Plush product line revenue was 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2%. The board initiated a first buyback plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin broke through $72,000 with $3.3 billion in short squeeze pressure, but "false breakout" controversy remains; BTC contract market bear dominance multiplier crashed from 64.5x to 12.7x then rebounded to 17.4x, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $550 million, bulls and bears underwent a violent shakeout within 24 hours with bears reestablishing full control; Fed minutes were more hawkish but the market more dovish due to economic slowdown concerns outweighing inflation worries; Pop Mart's LABUBU slowed while Starry Man surged 580%, marking a new IP transition. Liquidity, policy, and consumption resonate—the market is aggressively repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #US Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Buybacks, 30-Year Treasury Yields Pull Back from Highs
The US Treasury couldn't sit still.
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.33% a few days ago, the highest since 2007. Mortgage rates are approaching 7% again, and the stock market, gold, and Bitcoin are all under heavy pressure. The Treasury took direct action.
What was the market reaction? The 30-year Treasury yield dropped directly from 5.33% to between 5.18% and 5.2%, and the 10-year yield also fell by more than 6 basis points. Gold surged to $4500, up 4%. Bitcoin rallied 5% to 6%, and the stock market also rose.
But here’s a key difference—this is not QE. The Treasury’s buyback is purchasing old debt to retire it, using cash on hand, not printing money. The Fed’s QE is printing money to buy bonds; these are two different things. The Treasury’s operation is more like managing the debt structure, not flooding the market with liquidity.
In the short term, Treasury yields falling reduces the attractiveness of holding Treasuries, so funds naturally flow into risk assets, which explains the simultaneous strength in Bitcoin and gold.
But be clear, this buyback is just a short-term painkiller. The fundamental problem with Treasuries is excessive supply and insufficient buyers; a $4 billion buyback cannot resolve this structural imbalance. Some institutions have said the effect might last only a day. If long-term rates push back up, risk assets will remain under pressure.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH $SOL "Set 10 big goals first" and then stopped loss again. The name is quite fitting; no matter how big the goals are set, the leverage can't hold up first.
On August 20, he reduced his positions by 1169.625 BTC and 24,684.515 ETH short orders, leaving 1066 BTC and 4632 ETH, with remaining positions showing an unrealized loss of over 2 million USD.
Unrealized loss is not the main point. The key is that the stop loss action itself adds fuel to the market. Short positions closing out means buying back, and buying back means buying pressure. In this rebound, there is a batch of buying pressure—not new money coming in, but shorts forced to lift the price. The higher it goes, the more painful it gets; the more painful, the more they buy.
He hasn't cleared out yet. With 1066 BTC and 4632 ETH still held and still at unrealized loss, it shows hesitation or not fully admitting defeat. If the price pushes higher, these short positions will sooner or later turn into buying pressure.
What really needs caution is what comes next: once these big shorts are fully closed and the short squeeze fuel is burned out, the price might lose momentum.Bitcoin surged 15% in four days, and Ethereum was even more aggressive, shooting up 22%. Damn, the group chat went wild again, shouting loudly about a bull market comeback. Technically, there's really no room for criticism; the daily MA200, RSI, and MACD all look good. The macro environment is strangely favorable too: inflation is down, ISM is up, and the Russell 2000 hit new highs. Short-term bullish, I agree. But I just feel something's off. In July and August 2022, it was exactly the same. A #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue? #This BTC surge is not a crypto market rally at all; it's a macro liquidity + structural short squeeze rally 🚨
Many think BTC's big rise is due to positive coin fundamentals or sentiment recovery.
Completely wrong. The core of this rebound comes entirely from dramatic changes in US macro liquidity.
Here's the real market sequence breaking down the full logic behind this violent surge:
1. US Treasury takes heavy action: bond repo scale doubles
US Treasury single repo size increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
Focus on targeted repos: ultra-long bonds of 10–30 years.
2. The reason for the market rescue is straightforward
30-year US Treasury yield hit a 19-year high.
Long bond rates remain high, market risk appetite is completely frozen, and funds dare not touch any risk assets.
3. Repo implementation = forcibly lowering long-end rates
Long bond yields quickly fall, market liquidity instantly loosens.
Funds flow out of bonds back into risk assets, fully opening BTC's upward channel.
4. Market was extremely bearish earlier, heavy short positions accumulated
The market was in a long sideways range, with unanimous bearish sentiment and continuous shorting, shorts crowded to the extreme.
5. 4-hour rapid short squeeze, $1.4 billion shorts liquidated
Shorts were not actively bullish on BTC but forced to stop loss and close positions.
Massive passive buying flooded in, violently pushing prices up.
6. Breaks key technical resistance, triggers quantitative momentum buying
BTC firmly stands above the 200-day moving average at 69,031.
This trend watershed, never crossed for months, once broken, triggers mass programmatic and quantitative buying.
7. Regulatory expectations continue to improve
SEC's latest regulatory draft clarifies asset fundraising framework,
mature public chains gradually shed securities attributes, biggest industry negative priced in, expectations reversed.
8. White House crypto summit pre-battle
Coinbase, Ripple, and top institutions all attended.
Market priced in policy easing expectations early, sentiment bottom repaired.
9. Institutional ETF funds genuinely flow back
BlackRock and Fidelity lead, single-day net inflow of $297.5 million.
Real incremental funds entering, supporting the market.
The most critical core insight (must understand)
BTC now is no longer an independent market.
It completely follows US dollar liquidity: more money means rise, less money means fall.
The real logic of price moves is not in the candlesticks but in macro data.
But a calm reminder to everyone:
This round is not a trend reversal.
The main drivers of this rally are: short covering + quantitative breakout buying.
This passive buying will only happen once, no continuous relay.
You can verify from the market:
Crypto concept stocks violently recovered in one day, Strategy up 13%, Coinbase up 11%.
But they still fell over 35% year-to-date.
A single-day rebound cannot fix long-term weakness.
The most correct current strategy
✅ Never chase the top
The day after a short squeeze is often when passive buyers exit and selling pressure is heaviest.
✅ Focus on two key points
1. Whether the 69,000 level can hold effectively at close
Holding = structural improvement; failing = pure short-term pulse rebound.
2. Fed minutes and US Treasury statements
Current macro news is far more important than candlestick technicals.
Final truth
After many years in crypto:
If you don’t understand the logic of the rise, you can never predict the rhythm of the fall.
If you don’t understand the underlying macro, you will always be the last to catch the falling knife.
$BTC#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
Latest objective data
$BTC has surpassed $72000, daily RSI is overbought, and 24h short liquidations are massive; resistance at $73000‑74500, support at $68500‑69500. Fear & Greed index at 62 in the greed zone, ETF inflows are only intermittent. This round is driven by a combination of US Treasury pullback + regulatory expectations + short squeeze resonance, not purely continuous spot buying.
Surface market consensus
Breaking key resistance, confirming the main upward wave has officially started, directly targeting new highs.
Underlying logic analysis
$72000‑73000 is a historical supply zone with trapped positions, accumulating short-term floating profits. Only with volume supporting a stable break above resistance can the rise be sustained; if volume lags, high-level oscillation or profit-taking pullbacks are very likely. The market remains highly tied to ETF sustainability and US Treasury yields; news sentiment can only boost short-term moves, not independently drive the trend. Altcoins follow the main market and tend to retrace more on pullbacks.
Personal view (personal bias towards a slow bull market recovery, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
This is a short squeeze rebound within a slow bull, not directly equivalent to a violent main rise. Avoid chasing highs; focus on observing support at $68500‑69500 and signals of sustained ETF inflows. $BTC: Unpacking the "Three Barrels of Oil" behind this surge
Breaking down the market drivers for you brothers over the past two days:
First barrel of oil: The White House summit on August 19. Trump, in front of SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig, urged Congress to quickly pass the "Clear Act," and specifically mentioned that the CFTC is studying how to make Hyperliquid compliant in the US—just this one statement pushed HYPE up over 20% that day.
Second barrel of oil: The Treasury increased long-term bond repurchases from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, pushing the 30-year US Treasury yield, which had surged to a 2019 high of 5.34%, back down to 5.2%. This is real liquidity injection and the most solid part of this rally.
Third barrel of oil: The SEC proposed that some digital asset issuances could be exempt from securities registration, significantly lowering the financing threshold.
But looking calmly: The legislative process hasn't sped up; the Senate needs 60 votes to end debate and vote on September 15, but Republicans only have 53 seats and need to flip 7 Democrats. Expectations lead, implementation follows, with volatility in between. Don't max out leverage; save some margin to watch the vote. Today (August 21), the core of the cryptocurrency market is not an "ordinary rebound," but the accelerated sentiment after BTC's breakout + ETH/altcoin catch-up rally.
BTC: Slightly strong, but short-term has entered a resistance zone. Yesterday, it surged to about $72,800, retaking the $70,000 level, with a large-scale short squeeze indicating a clear short squeeze component in the rise.
ETH: Clearly stronger than BTC. Yesterday, ETH rose to about $2,280, with gains significantly exceeding BTC; XRP, SOL, and others also saw double-digit increases, indicating funds are spreading from BTC to mainstream altcoins.
Catalysts for the rise: The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, market liquidity expectations improved, and Trump pushed for crypto regulatory legislation again. These factors collectively improved risk asset sentiment.
But do not chase the highs. BTC's 4-day rise this round has been substantial, and many shorts were liquidated yesterday. If it cannot hold firmly around $72,000, profit-taking is likely; if it can hold after a pullback to $70,000–$69,000, that would be healthier. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ This round of rise appears to be a price breakout on the surface, but behind it, three forces are driving it simultaneously:
First, the U.S. Treasury plans to expand long-term government bond repurchases, which the market interprets as a marginal improvement in liquidity, causing the dollar index to weaken and risk assets to collectively benefit; second, the U.S. spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $517 million on August 19, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about $285 million, indicating that spot funds are indeed returning; third, a large number of short positions have been continuously liquidated, with over $3.2 billion liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours, creating a typical short squeeze scenario.
However, I think it’s still too early to blindly call a bull return.
The rapid rise in a short time and the passive buying from leverage liquidations cannot continue indefinitely. The key next is to see if $72,000 can turn from a resistance level into a support level. If the price holds on a pullback and ETFs continue to have net inflows, the market may have a chance to shift from a short squeeze rebound to a genuine uptrend; if it falls back below $70,000, this wave is likely just a quick pulse driven by sentiment and leverage.
My view is straightforward: the direction has turned stronger, but the risk of chasing higher now is not low. A truly healthy trend is not a continuous surge but a consolidation and stabilization around $72,000 before opening up more upward space. @OKX星球 Altcoins are being abandoned by the market.
Ignas posted a tweet in the early hours of August 21st — "The broad altcoin season no longer exists."
BTC, ETH, HYPE, and LIT are surging, but a large number of tokens are being ignored.
The GRASS team is indifferent to their token, STABLE has been labeled a scam, and even though KAITO was listed on Aura, no one cares.
The altcoin market is shifting from "broad gains" to "selective winners."
Not all tokens can rise with the market; only a few with strong narratives and liquidity can increase. Research will yield returns; it’s no longer an era where you can make money by blindly buying.
Meanwhile, Coldcard wallet released a new firmware version. After a mnemonic generation vulnerability was exposed on July 31st, a formal fix was launched after three weeks of review.
The new version requires user entropy when generating new mnemonics — at least 65 unpredictable keystrokes, 50 dice rolls, or 128 coin flips.
When the vulnerability was exposed, the market was experiencing a short squeeze from 62,000 to 72,000.
The security incident was completely drowned out by the surge.
But the issue of self-custody security hasn’t disappeared; it’s just temporarily overshadowed by price.
The hardware wallet vulnerability fix and Bitcoin’s surge happened on the same day — one reminding you of the threshold for self-custody, the other telling you that price will drown out all noise. $BTC The vertical rebound of $SNDK has officially failed.
It has retraced over 99% from its historical high, with continuous unlocking of selling pressure crushing liquidity just as the buyers' momentum was starting to emerge.
$BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR—all these coins with the same narrative have fully absorbed the rotating funds and formed sharp rebound structures, but $SNDK slid down continuously without even forming a bottom consolidation.
Betting on a reversal prematurely without clear spot chip support is a truly extreme risk operation. $SNDK #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 Fidelity and Grayscale gave completely opposite viewpoints on the same day.
Fidelity Digital Assets released a warning report stating that AI agents might generate a large amount of digital activity but will not create an equivalent level of value for public blockchains.
The reason is that centralized platforms have advantages in performance, cost, user experience, and regulatory clarity. If AI agents remain within these closed systems, the demand faced by public blockchains may be lower than expected.
The issue is not whether AI will use blockchain, but how much economic value public networks can ultimately capture.
Grayscale, on the other hand, holds a completely opposite view. Research lead Zach Pandl is optimistic about Ethereum, Solana, Worldcoin, and Bittensor, believing that autonomous agents may require programmable money and infrastructure that is online 24/7, which the traditional financial system is not designed for.
The same fact, two interpretations. Fidelity asks "Where will the value flow?" Grayscale answers "It will flow to native tokens."
Both sides have valid points, and both are validating their judgments with their own money.
When BTC and ETH rose to 72,000 and 2,300 respectively, Fidelity warned that AI would not bring incremental value to public chains, while Grayscale said ETH and SOL would benefit from the AI agent economy.
The same candlestick, two completely different long-term judgments. $BTC Yesterday's market rally was not driven by retail investors but was triggered by policy resonance combined with short squeeze liquidations.
The White House held a crypto summit, personally attended by Trump, who invited the CEOs of Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple.
Also present at the venue were the heads of the SEC, CFTC, NYSE, and the CEO of Nasdaq. The President convening bipartisan regulatory leaders and industry executives at the White House is itself a signal at this level.
Trump urged Congress to pass the Clarity Act to clearly define the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets.
At the same time, the SEC proposed a new plan allowing certain digital asset issuances to be exempt from securities registration, lowering the financing threshold for startups. On one side, the White House is pushing forward, and on the other, the SEC is loosening regulations.
Additionally, the U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion each time, causing long-term Treasury yields to fall and marginally improving market liquidity expectations.
These three policy signals appeared simultaneously, hitting exactly where shorts were most concentrated.
In the past 24 hours, $3.34 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated globally, with $3.07 billion in short positions liquidated, affecting nearly 200,000 traders.
A whale with 40x leverage shorted 1,200 BTC at an average price of 66,891, with a liquidation price of 70,039. After BTC broke above 70,000, the system forcibly liquidated the position.
Shorts were selectively cleared, pushing the price from 62,000 to above 72,000. $BTC 隔夜至今日早间，加密市场走出强势修复行情，$BTC 大饼连续拉升站稳72000关口上方，全线主流币跟涨补涨，市场短期多头情绪快速回暖。但盘面结构已经出现明显变化，单边拉升动能逐步衰减，高位分歧、震荡洗盘特征凸显，整体进入利好兑现后的分化阶段，盘面节奏与交易难度同步提升。 从宏观消息逻辑来看，本轮反弹的核心驱动力来自流动性预期改善。此前美国财政部落地国债回购操作，市场解读为有意压制长端美债利率，缓解风险资产的流动性压制，直接带动BTC自64000区间开启反弹，两日累计涨幅超10%，成功突破前期震荡箱体，市场整体重心大幅上移。 但隔夜关键变量出现转折，美债30年期长端收益率再度反弹回升，美股科技板块同步走弱，意味着前期落地的流动性利好已经被盘面充分消化。短期缺乏新的宏观增量刺激，单纯依靠旧有利好继续暴力上攻的概率极低，市场正式从单边多头趋势，切换为高位震荡、多空反复博弈的节奏。 监管与资金面同样支撑本轮修复行情。近期美国加密监管政策持续释放缓和预期，新规优化、行业闭门会议持续推进合规框架落地，市场政策不确定性大幅降低。同时$BTC、$ETH 现货ETF持续保持资金净流入，机构资📊 $XAU Contract Liquidation Express (August 21)
Bears controlled the market throughout but momentum kept fading, with 24-hour liquidations surpassing $5.77 million. The crushing ratio narrowed from 9.9x down to 3.9x...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $249,600 $22,900 $226,700
4 hours $255,100 $25,300 $229,700
12 hours $3,867,400 $468,400 $3,399,000
24 hours $5,770,600 $1,176,400 $4,594,200
From the XAU liquidation data: In 1 hour, bears crushed bulls with a 9.9x ratio, liquidation volume at $226,700, showing strong bear control; in 4 hours, the bear ratio slightly dropped to 9.1x, liquidation volume roughly steady at $229,700, bears continued control but with slightly less intensity; in 12 hours, bear momentum further declined, ratio at 7.3x, liquidation volume surged to $3,399,000, bears still dominant but ratio kept narrowing; in 24 hours, bear advantage sharply shrank, with $4,594,200 in short liquidations versus $1,176,400 in longs, bears left with only a 3.9x advantage, total liquidations exceeded $5.77 million. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 67% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration, with bears completing most of the harvesting within 12 hours. The crushing ratio dropped continuously from 9.9x at 1 hour to 3.9x at 24 hours, short squeeze momentum showed a one-sided exhaustion trend, the gap between bulls and bears is rapidly returning to equilibrium, bears still control but with significantly reduced strength. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; although the direction is bearish, momentum has severely weakened, avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | August 21
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: liquidity valve loosening, policy divergence intensifying, and consumer IP iteration—three forces resonating on the same trading day.
₿ BTC Breaks $72,000: Epic Short Squeeze
On August 20, Bitcoin violently surged past $72,000, rising over 11% in 24 hours. The triggers were threefold: the U.S. Treasury raised the debt buyback cap to $4 billion; the White House pushed forward crypto legislation again; after breaking key resistance, shorts were force-liquidated.
Liquidation data was brutal—188,000 people liquidated globally, totaling $3.34 billion, with shorts accounting for $3 billion, marking Bitcoin's first-ever single-day short liquidation exceeding $1 billion. After six weeks of sideways trading, the breakout finally occurred, but controversy over a "false breakout" remains—the spot and futures markets' demand turned positive simultaneously for the first time since October last year. If sustained for another month, a new bull market may begin.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: Hawks Outnumber Votes
The August 19 minutes showed the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with three regional Fed presidents advocating hikes. The hawkish camp far outnumbered the three official dissenters—many participants leaned toward raising rates, and further tightening might be necessary if inflation doesn't fall. However, the market is pricing in rate cuts, with September cut probability rising to 81.2%. The more hawkish the minutes, the more dovish the market, because the market prices in "economic slowdown."
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Slows, Star People Take Over
On August 20, Pop Mart's 2026 half-year report showed revenue of ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-over-year; adjusted net profit of ¥5.16 billion, up 9.5%. The IP landscape is dramatically reshaped—LABUBU series revenue was ¥4.45 billion, down 7.5% year-over-year but still first place; new IP "Star People" revenue surged 580.6% to ¥2.65 billion, jumping to second place. Plush product line revenue was ¥9.82 billion, accounting for 57.2%. The board initiated a first buyback plan of ¥2 billion to ¥5 billion.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin broke $72,000 with $3.3 billion short squeeze, but "false breakout" controversy remains; XAU contract bears controlled the market throughout, but crushing ratio declined from 9.9x to 3.9x, total liquidations exceeded $5.77 million, short squeeze momentum one-sidedly declined, bull-bear gap rapidly returning to equilibrium; Fed minutes were more hawkish but market more dovish due to economic slowdown outweighing inflation concerns; Pop Mart's LABUBU slowed while Star People surged 580%, marking IP landscape transition. Liquidity, policy, and consumption resonate—the market is aggressively repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Shift your focus from coin prices to commodities and the bond market, and you'll be more cautious about this short squeeze. WTI crude oil has returned above $86 and rose over 2% overnight. When oil prices rise, the market's inflation narrative reignites; meanwhile, U.S. long-term Treasury yields remain near a 20-year high. This combination is actually a headwind for risk assets—sticky inflation and high interest rates mean the room for rate cuts is compressed, and valuations don't get the subsidy of cheap money. $BTC is currently surging on short squeeze pulses, but the macro foundation (high rates + sticky inflation) hasn't changed. Don't let an overnight green candle overshadow the two dark clouds overhead. Do you trust market momentum more, or macro gravitational pull?The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time.
Interest costs have already exceeded Medicare, becoming the federal government's second-largest budget expenditure after Social Security.
The Treasury immediately announced doubling the scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury buybacks, with each operation at least $4 billion.
The 30-year yield briefly dropped to 5.179% before rebounding to 5.266%.
The founder of TrendLabs said something worth pondering — if the market believes the government will suppress rapidly rising long-term rates, the valuation logic of all other assets could change.
In the short term, the $40 trillion debt is not a bullish signal for BTC — ongoing deficits and financing needs may push borrowing costs higher again.
But the long-term narrative is different.
An analyst from Yield Basis put it bluntly: the continuous growth of debt will strengthen the demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation, because Bitcoin's supply is fixed and it has no sovereign issuer.
This rise is driven by long-term bond logic, not retail FOMO.
$BTC 72,000 has climbed back above the 200-day moving average.
The last time the price was above the 200-day moving average was nine months ago.
But miners are still transitioning; Bitcoin network hashrate dropped from 1.14 ZH/s to about 900 EH/s, a 21% decrease.
Publicly listed mining companies cut their hashrate by 21% in Q3, shifting capacity toward AI infrastructure.
Mining companies with AI contracts are valued by the market at a multiple of 12.3x, while pure mining companies only get 5.9x. The total signed AI/HPC contracts across the industry amount to about $70 billion.
Whales are also active.
CryptoQuant data shows that in the past 60 days, large Bitcoin holders have increased their holdings by about 43,000 BTC, worth approximately $2.75 billion.
The number of super whale wallets holding over 10,000 BTC has risen to 89, a six-month high.
Price is rising, miners are transitioning, whales are accumulating.
At the 72,000 level, short-term bearish positions have been cleared; mid-term, regulation and liquidity are improving; long-term, the structure of miners and whales is changing.
72,000 is holding; the next target is between 75,000 and 78,000. If it doesn't hold, 68,000 to 70,000 is the first support.
The direction has changed, but whether it can hold depends on whether ETF inflows continue in the coming days. $BTC The diesel crack spread surged to $102.2 per barrel, inventories hit a 30-year seasonal low, and Brent crude broke through $91 after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed. I've seen this play before.
Hollywood has made countless disaster films about "oil crises," but seasoned directors know—the explosions on screen aren't the climax; the unseen hand behind the scenes is the real star. Today's market is the third act script handed to me by the market makers. The first two acts were accumulation and shakeout; now it's time for the main event: "bad news coupled with distribution."
Restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and declining Russian fuel supplies are just the crew calling "clear the set." The real core conflict is the structural shortage of refining capacity. Crude oil is the rough cut; diesel is the final release—transportation, agriculture, food, heating, every end consumer pays for this "finished product." When the diesel crack spread hits a historic high, what you see isn't a temporary geopolitical clash but a deep fracture in the entire refining industry system.
I've reviewed the past 30 years of footage. The 1990 Gulf War, 2005 Hurricane Katrina, 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict—every time the diesel crack spread soared, it was never a single short-term shock. It's like a classic trilogy fate—the first act is panic over supply disruption, the second act confirms inventory depletion, and the third act is the full pricing of inflation expectations. Now, we stand at the critical juncture transitioning from act two to act three.
The market loves to package moments like this as "short-term geopolitical shocks," but I see this as a classic script misread. Short-term shocks are the fleeting faces of extras; structural squeezes are the protagonist's inner drama, running throughout. When diesel prices directly penetrate transportation and food costs, inflation is no longer something the Fed's verbal "transitory" can soothe. The bond market's yield curve is rewriting the storyboard for this play.
Bitcoin's role in this drama, I call it the "rebellious understudy." It's neither a safe haven nor a risk asset; it's the most unruly character in the liquidity script—when crude oil and inflation expectations rewrite the actual interest rate script together, BTC's pricing logic must be reshot. Every time the diesel crack spread hit historic highs before, sharp swings in real interest rates triggered a bloody reshuffle in crypto markets; this time will be no exception.
Personally, I think the greatest danger now isn't going long or short but trying to apply a "short-term shock" logic to a "structural squeeze" market. It's like using a romantic youth film script to shoot a war epic—the visual language is all wrong.
The market makers have already set the lighting and camera angles for the entire play, while the extras are still fixated on daily oil price fluctuations.
As for me, my gaze is already on the next act: when the diesel crack spread begins to transmit to end consumer prices, those narratives treated as "digital gold" will reveal their true nature under the spotlight of real interest rates. 🎬Prices don't rise on their own.
On August 18, the SEC proposed the new "Regulation Crypto Assets" — exemption from registration for four years under $5 million, exemption for 12 months under $75 million, along with a safe harbor clause.
At the same time, the U.S. Treasury announced that the long-term Treasury repurchase limit would double from $2 billion to $4 billion.
These two events combined have been interpreted by the market as improved liquidity and the implementation of a regulatory framework.
Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $517 million on Wednesday, the strongest single-day inflow since May 4. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $285 million.
However, the full-year ledger has not yet turned positive. Since 2026, Bitcoin ETFs have had a cumulative net outflow of about $4.5 billion, with 54% of trading days this year seeing outflows.
A $500 million inflow over three days is just the beginning compared to the $4.5 billion annual gap.
Regulation is pushing forward, the Treasury is easing liquidity, and ETFs are bringing in money. The 72,000 level is being driven up by this policy resonance. $BTC A credit-side signal of AI capital expenditure to note. Market news says Broadcom is negotiating over $60 billion in debt financing for AI chips, possibly including about $30 billion in subordinated debt; meanwhile, Anthropic is rumored to submit an IPO as early as August, potentially matching SpaceX in scale. The primary market's appetite for AI is still expanding, but pay attention to the change in approach—more and more computing power expansion is supported by "debt" rather than free cash flow. This means the AI narrative is becoming increasingly sensitive to interest rates and credit spreads: cheap money acts as an accelerator, but once financing costs rise, leverage will backfire. $BTC, as the asset most sensitive to liquidity, actually breathes in sync with this credit line. Are you more worried about AI valuations or AI debt? Add a variable that is pressing overhead but often overlooked for this wave of broad risk asset rally: Japan. In July, Japan's core CPI year-on-year was 1.8%, overall 2%, both higher than previous values. Inflation rising again means the Bank of Japan's window for further rate hikes is still open. Why is this connected to $BTC? Because one of the hidden fuels for global risk assets over the past two years has been the yen carry trade—borrowing yen at near-zero cost to buy high-yield assets. Once expectations for BOJ rate hikes heat up and the yen strengthens, carry trade positions will be forced to shrink, and risk assets will feel the drain first. It's a celebration now, but the carry trade line is worth watching. Will you add the yen exchange rate to your crypto watchlist? $ASTER retraced to $0.66 after hitting resistance at $0.68. The current core issue is whether the RWA perpetual contracts driving traditional asset cross-market liquidity can offset the valuation pressure caused by tightening in the crypto market.
Market data shows $ASTER's 7-day gain of 10% still lags behind BTC's 15% increase, with capital turnover occurring after the surge to $0.68. The rising demand for cross-market linkage between commodities and U.S. stock indices makes the combination of pricing units and on-chain derivatives a key entry point for valuation adjustments.
The current driving factors ranked are: trading demand for on-chain derivatives of U.S. stocks and commodities, changes in overall market liquidity, and support strength from major holders and the $28 million on-chain liquidity fund. If there is significant volatility in the macro market's U.S. stocks and gold, the USD1 settlement mechanism will become a direct channel for on-chain assets to transmit external shocks.
The bullish scenario requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: stable turnover in the $0.66 range with volume-driven breakout above the $0.68 resistance, and a substantial increase in trading volume of U.S. stock and commodity derivatives. If triggered, the bulls will target $0.70 and $0.80, and the trading side should monitor whether cross-market funds smoothly convert into supplementary buying for $ASTER. A failure signal is a volume contraction during the breakout above $0.68, indicating a false breakout without volume.
The bearish scenario is triggered by macro liquidity tightening: if the overall market pulls back and the $0.62 support fails, selling pressure will further test the $0.60 area. Breaking below the $0.59 stop-loss defense level indicates that the benefits brought by the launch of RWA derivatives have been fully absorbed, and the structure has completely weakened. A failure signal is a whale long position adding $4.33 million against the trend near $0.60.
The most critical observation variable for the trading desk over the next 7 days is whether the USD1-settled RWA perpetual contracts can bring sustained real trading volume of on-chain derivatives, and the strength of order book support at the $0.62 level.
#成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡Looking at this wave of $BTC short squeeze structurally is calmer than just watching the K-line: the current price stands above 73K, with a 24h range from 68.8K to 73.4K, but the real driver behind the price movement isn’t new long buying, it’s shorts being forced to cover. The judgment is simple—OI didn’t expand significantly during the rally; it was mostly old short positions closing and changing hands, and volume didn’t keep pace with the price slope. This kind of "short squeeze" rally is fragile: once the fuel (crowded shorts) burns out, the upward momentum breaks. Data won’t play tricks on you; the highs pulled up by a short squeeze have to be discounted in value. How much longer do you think this fuel can keep burning? 如果把美国看成一个“项目方”，把美元看成这个项目发行的“代币”，很多原本复杂的宏观经济问题，突然就变得很好理解了。 任何一个项目方，想要维持自己代币的价值，首先要解决的问题，就是：谁来接盘，代币有什么用？ 于是，要不断给代币寻找应用场景。 DeFi 项目要做 Earn，让你把币存进去赚收益；要做 Trade，让你不断交易；要做 Pay，让代币进入支付场景。 而美国做的事情，其实也差不多。 美元需要成为全球贸易的结算工具，需要成为石油、大宗商品的定价货币，需要成为各国央行的储备资产，需要成为全球金融市场的抵押品和避险资产。 于是，一个个巨大的“池子”被建立起来。 美债，是最大的池子。 美股，尤其是 AI 和 Big Tech，是另一个巨大的池子。 加密市场，也正在成为新的美元承载池。 你会发现，这些池子的一个共同任务，就是：不断吸收越来越多的美元。 而美国这个“项目方”，当然也有自己的“链上手续费”。 那就是——税收。 理论上，美国政府应该通过收税获得收入，然后支付军队、政府部门、公共服务和各种财政开支。 这就像一个区块链项目，希望依靠手续费维持整个生态运转。 但问题是，仅靠手续费，往往把DOGE称作牛市的哨兵，不是玩笑，是规律。每一轮新资金涌进加密市场，资金的路径几乎雷同：先买比特币试水，再摸以太坊，第三步往往就轮到DOGE。为什么？因为它单价低、名字响、社区大，对刚开户的新人来说，买一百个$DOGE 的心理满足感，远超买0.001个BTC。所以DOGE的异动，本质上不是项目利好，而是散户情绪的体温计。 回看历史，这个规律屡试不爽。每当$DOGE 成交量突然放大、社交媒体讨论度飙升、交易所新注册量同步上升，往往意味着场外资金正在跑步进场，行情进入主升浪的前夜。反过来，当DOGE持续阴跌、无人问津，基本就是市场冷却、散户退潮的阶段。它的涨跌未必预测比特币的方向，却能精准刻画市场的温度。 这背后的逻辑很简单：DOGE没有复杂的估值故事，买它的人几乎不研究白皮书，纯粹靠热情和从众心理驱动。所以它的价格曲线，就是最赤裸的散户行为图谱——贪婪时冲得最快，恐惧时跑得也最快。 对老玩家来说，DOGE哨兵的意义在于节奏判断。哨兵异动，说明增量资金来了，仓位可以积极；哨兵沉寂，说明只剩存量博弈，别指望普涨行情。#BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue? #Fed July FOMC minutes 9-3, officials still divided on rate hikes #US Treasury expands long-term bond repos, 30-year Treasury yields retreat from highs $BTC $ETH Complete Bitcoin (BTC) market analysis
Risk warning: This is only a market logic review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and trade 24/7 without interruption.
Current market status
After reaching a historical high of $126,198 in 2025, BTC entered a major correction cycle with a maximum drawdown exceeding 50%. In 2026, it has been oscillating in the $60,000‑72,000 range for a long time.
It has become fully institutionalized; the US spot ETF is now the main channel for institutional allocation. However, ETF funds no longer show continuous one-way net inflows but alternate between inflows and outflows, with incremental momentum significantly weaker than in 2025.
Key technical & on-chain price levels
• Strong resistance: $69,000‑73,000, a dense historical trapped position area. Breaking through does not equal an effective breakout; a daily close above this range is required to confirm a true breakout of trapped positions. Above that, greater resistance lies at $83,000‑85,000, where a massive volume of unlocked chips accumulates.
• Core support: $60,000‑62,000, the on-chain long-term capital absorption zone and the central platform of this correction.
• Extreme bottom range: $57,000‑58,000, the yearly low, supported by the 200-week moving average and the network-wide average holding cost resonance.
Important distinction: Short-term spikes are mostly driven by contract short squeezes; sustainable rallies require spot capital (ETF, on-chain whales) cooperation.
Bullish core logic
1. Halving leads to supply contraction and locked existing chips
The fourth halving completed, drastically reducing new mining output; many long-term holders remain inactive, exchange BTC inventories continue to decline, circulating spot supply decreases, and long-term selling pressure is suppressed.
2. Institutional base established
Spot ETFs bring traditional capital in. Even with repeated outflows, a long-term allocation base has formed; enterprises and family offices have included BTC in their major asset allocations, no longer just retail speculation.
3. Macro liquidity inflection expectation
BTC is a non-interest-bearing risk asset; declining real yields on US Treasuries are the biggest macro positive. If US inflation continues to fall and the Fed starts cutting rates, global risk-free yields will decline, increasing BTC’s allocation appeal.
4. Regulatory outlook improvement
If US regulatory policies turn friendlier, it will catalyze narratives and stimulate short-term rallies.
Core bearish risks
1. Macro liquidity is the biggest constraint
High Treasury yields and high real interest rates reduce appetite for non-interest-bearing assets. CPI rebounds beyond expectations and hawkish Fed speeches will directly suppress prices, the core factor restraining the market in 2026.
2. ETF fund sustainability insufficient
ETFs no longer have continuous large net inflows and often experience large periodic redemptions; rallies driven solely by contract leverage have poor sustainability and tend to spike and fall back, resulting in false breakouts.
3. Massive historical trapped positions
$69,000‑85,000 holds a large volume of trapped chips from 2025 entries; when prices return to cost lines, large-scale unlocking and selling pressure emerge, requiring absorption at every upward step.
4. Derivatives leverage backlash risk
Rallies tend to stimulate increased leverage; once the trend reverses, cascading liquidations among bulls can amplify the decline.
5. Regulatory and geopolitical black swans
Tightening US crypto regulations or global geopolitical conflicts can cause severe volatility.
Three scenario simulations
1. Base scenario (highest neutral probability): wide-range oscillation bottoming
Oscillating between $60,000‑73,000, washing out positions. Awaiting US inflation data, Fed policy signals, and ETF resumption of sustained net inflows. The longer the consolidation, the more trapped positions are digested, improving the foundation for a subsequent breakout.
Impulse breaks above $69,000 are easy but likely false breakouts that quickly retreat.
2. Optimistic scenario: upward breakout
Trigger conditions: significant US inflation decline, rising rate cut expectations; continuous large ETF net inflows; sustained accumulation by on-chain whales.
After a firm close above $73,000, upward space opens, with the next target at $83,000‑85,000.
3. Pessimistic scenario: deep probe
Inflation rebounds, Fed maintains high rates; ETFs continue large net outflows, risk assets collectively sell off. A decisive break below $60,000 support targets the extreme bottom at $57,000‑58,000.
BTC vs ETH core differences
• BTC: leans toward digital value storage, lower beta, simpler and clearer institutional consensus; better bear market resilience than ETH.
• ETH: infrastructure + staking yield, high beta, greater elasticity, deeper drawdowns, rarely leads an independent bull market, mostly follows BTC’s rally.
Key indicators to monitor
1. US 10-year Treasury real yield (macro master switch)
2. Daily inflows and outflows of US spot Bitcoin ETFs
3. On-chain: exchange BTC balances, short-term holder cost, MVRV indicator
4. CPI inflation data, Fed officials’ speeches
5. Derivatives: perpetual contract positions, long-short liquidation data
Summary
Bitcoin is now a risk asset deeply involved by institutions; macro liquidity is the master switch for the market. Halving is only a long-term supply logic and cannot independently drive a major bull market.
Short-term impulse rallies can be driven by contract short squeezes; mid-to-long-term major moves require both declining Treasury yields and incremental spot capital.
Do not mistake piercing key resistance as an effective breakout; a reliable signal requires holding above, volume expansion, and capital confirmation.
.HYPE is really strong this round; it ignores the shaky overall market and pushes itself up hard. It surged again last night, directly breaking above 72, rising about 20% in 24 hours. Now the entire market is treating it as a safe-haven collective asset, with very focused sentiment.
Fundamentally, there's nothing wrong; the fee buyback and burn are ongoing, plus Trump hinted that the CFTC is paving the way for its compliance. Coinbase's Base has also integrated it, so both the story and the money are in place. The key is that the tokens are locked up tightly, so selling pressure is low, and the daily chart still shows bulls dominating.
But on the other hand, after such a short-term surge, the RSI has already shot above 85, and the daily is over 70, clearly overbought. At this level, spikes are most likely; any profit-taking could cause a deep dip, so risks are accumulating.
Short-term, I’m watching two ranges: below, 68-70 is the lifeline of this rally—if it doesn't break, the trend is fine; above, 74-76 is near historical highs, where selling pressure will definitely be significant.
Operationally, I really don’t recommend chasing now; the cost-performance ratio is too low. Wait for a pullback to around 70 or even 68, and once it stabilizes, then it’s safer to act. As for shorting? Forget it—going against this trend is risky.
Also, a reminder: Multicoin has been transferring coins to exchanges recently. Although it’s not necessarily selling, be aware. On September 6, nearly $600 million will unlock, and with the Fed meeting just days away, market sentiment could shift.
In summary, the long-term logic remains, but short-term a pullback should be guarded against, especially if it fails to break the previous high tonight; it will likely retrace. #Federal Reserve July FOMC Minutes Released: 9 votes in favor, 3 against, the highest level of dissent in recent years.
Logan, Harker, and Kashkari voted against, all advocating a 25 basis point rate hike. The minutes show that most participants support keeping rates unchanged, but several officials clearly lean toward further tightening, and if inflation's downward path is obstructed, policy may need to pivot.
This is the most divided set of minutes since 2026, with a rare number of dissenting votes in recent years. Interestingly, CPI and employment data released after the meeting both weakened, and market expectations for a September rate hike have dropped from over 70% to between 36% and 67%, with significant divergence in pricing across different instruments. The minutes also specifically mention AI infrastructure financing, AI stock valuations, and the potential threat of U.S. Treasury market volatility to financial stability—phrasing that has been uncommon in the past.
For BTC, the minutes themselves are hawkish, but the market chooses to trust the data. BTC breaking through 72000 is a direct pricing of improved liquidity expectations. The dissent doesn't matter; what matters is which side the market is putting its money on. Brother Ci has spoken, savor it. #Federal Reserve July FOMC Minutes 9 to 3, officials' rate hike dissent remains $BTC $ETH $SOL The entire market is excitedly turning green due to the combination of ETF capital inflows + macro factors + short squeeze, not simply spot buying pressure. As I predicted yesterday, BTC is still hovering around the 72-75k U range this morning.
Currently, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded about 517.2 million USD net inflow during the session on 8/19 (strong force). If the market structure follows the pattern of price increase → institutional buying → liquidity increase → breaking resistance levels, there is a possibility to surpass 75k and move towards 78k 各位早上好，来看今日早间心得体会，做好笔记📝 加密这边，大饼站上7.2万，ETH同步反弹，但主流币成交额缩量，热度在下降，属于存量资金在推动。 反观MEME板块直接嗨起来，成交量直接翻倍，大量资金从主流轮动过来炒投机币。记住MEME完全依附大盘，大饼一回头，MEME杀得最狠。 美股隔夜大盘集体大跌，但存储芯片逆势走强，美光宣布百亿投入研发。美债收益率再度反弹，债务问题依旧是悬在头上的隐患。 跨市场要注意，美股科技如果持续承压，也会拖累加密情绪。 当下没有大量场外新钱进场，都是场内轮动，不要盲目追高，做好仓位管理。 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 以下是整理的数据: 加密这边：BTC+6.13%，ETH+10.79%。主流币涨，但成交额缩量，热度大跌。 MEME板块更猛，VINE+14.33%，PEOPLE+10.61%，成交额暴涨126%。现在是场内资金轮动，MEME完全依附大盘，大饼一回头，投机币杀得最狠。 美股隔夜三大指数全部收跌，道指‑1.32%，纳指‑1%。存储芯片逆势走强，美光+3.97%。 美债收益率反弹至4.708%。美股情绪走弱，也会间接影响加密市场#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
This rally is a double trigger of "short covering + macro expectations," not incremental funds chasing the rally. 72000 is just knocking on the door; 75000 is the real opening. The true test is whether there is sustained spot buying support after holding above.
On August 20, BTC broke through 72000 USD, rising about 12% in 24 hours, over 11% in two days, returning to this level for the first time since June. The derivatives market short liquidation exceeded $1.3 billion, with shorts accounting for over 90%. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $517 million on Wednesday, the largest single-day inflow since May 4. Ethereum rose over 19%, SOL over 13%, and HYPE over 26%.
There are three driving forces: the Treasury raised the long-term bond repurchase limit from $2 billion to $4 billion, long bond yields fell, and the dollar weakened; Trump urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act at the White House crypto summit; after breaking 66,000, a large-scale short squeeze was triggered, creating a positive feedback loop.
Technically: the 200-day moving average (around 71700 USD) has been reclaimed, the next key resistance is the true market average of 75689 USD. The 72000-75000 range above is a strong resistance zone, with the first support below at 68200. RSI has entered the overbought zone, and after a short squeeze, a pullback is usually needed to digest profits. Speaking of US stocks and then Bitcoin, the expected 3 AM reversal to pick up people didn’t happen. Bitcoin surged straight to the classic 72,000 level that has blocked us for most of 2024.
The 72k level is not only the EMA 200-day line but was once regarded as a strong support after the 120k peak correction, holding high hopes. But as everyone knows, Bitcoin lingered around 60k for a long time and even once dropped below 60k.
From the crypto market logic alone, repeatedly testing but not breaking 62k combined with continuous macro easing indeed suggests it should rise. Once it starts to rally, the speed will be very fast, leaving most family members still playing US stocks behind. According to altcoin pump-and-dump logic, the faster the pump, the cheaper it is—first, retail investors can’t get on board in time; second, after chasing, retail investors have high costs, easily forming a chip peak at the top as resistance for the next rise or fall.
Yesterday, from a contract perspective, I observed that open interest didn’t rise but fell. Today’s rally is led by spot trading. Generally, when the market is driven by spot, it tends to be more sustained and harder to fall. Also, there are no signs of exhaustion now, and below 80k there isn’t any significant resistance. So, provided the macro environment doesn’t worsen (there’s still about a week’s lag anyway), this round still has enough time and momentum to test the weekly EMA 100 resistance around 75-78k.
Even from the most conspiratorial angle—that this rally is just to set up a better plunge—it’s not a bad thing. Long-term low volatility is the real killer of the crypto market. The crypto community isn’t afraid of rises or falls, but fears a stagnant pool with no movement. Otherwise, the million chips around 62-63k would harden the soil, and hardened soil eventually leads to a barren ecosystem.
As long as volatility picks up and chips loosen, maintaining long-term volatility will naturally stir the settled chips evenly. Only with ongoing divergence can the crypto market maintain heat and survive. The previous short-term rally of $SNDK driven by concentrated rapid pumping has long become a thing of the past in the market. The all-time high triggered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%, and the market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage distribution selling pressure.
Similarly, $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle, resulting in a smooth, structurally clear rebound with volume and price coordination. Only $SNDK missed out on any sector rotation benefits, completely detached from the entire sector's upward rhythm, and instead remained trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, $SNDK lacks strong spot buying support that has been repeatedly validated by multiple rounds of sufficient turnover in the market. $SNDK #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $BTC **BTC, bullish but don't chase, $72,700.**
In three days, $64K→$73K, +15%. $3 billion shorts buried, nearly 200,000 liquidations. This rally is not a slow rise, but a short squeeze style surge.
**Three catalyst strikes:**
① On 8/19, Trump met with Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple executives at the White House, urging Congress to pass the Clarity Act. On the same day, the SEC introduced new rules—the token "safe harbor" clause, meaning compliant projects will no longer be classified as securities. This is the clearest friendly signal from regulators to date.
② The Treasury raised the bond buyback limit from $2 billion to $4 billion, causing long-term yields to plunge and the dollar to weaken. Risk assets collectively caught a breather.
③ ETFs attracted $1 billion in three days. On 8/19 alone, $517 million flowed in, with BlackRock's IBIT taking $285 million—real institutional money, not just talk. Total ETF assets reached $84.3 billion, a new phase high.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 62, in the "Greed" zone, the highest since October 2025.
**But here’s the problem:** This rally was driven by short liquidations, not spot buying. Perpetual contract open interest did not rise—smart money is waiting for confirmation. RSI is definitely overbought. Beware of chasing the rally; what we see here currently is just a normal large-range consolidation.
The reason for the rise in the past two days is the accumulation of a 77-day consolidation phase, which is the cause in Wyckoff's cause-and-effect law—a consolidation phase nurturing a new trending phase.
The chart is the BTC/USDT trading pair on Coinbase exchange. Its anomaly lies in the volume; there is no obvious volume surge, and moreover, we are still in a bear market. Therefore, I believe this is likely a trap and do not expect a bull reversal, even though this rise has been very rapid.
Low volume distribution chart: This rapid upward trend can be seen in the volume distribution (indicated by the arrow). After the price breaks through the VAH, it rises rapidly because the volume at the price levels above is very low. This is a Low Volume Node (LVN), so when the price reaches here, it either quickly passes through or reverses in a V-shape. Until horizontal volume starts to expand, forming a High Volume Node (HVN), we consider this price accepted by the market, forming a new value area, which generally serves as a target. So in the chart, you can look for HVNs; these positions will be where institutions or large traders take profits and close positions.
High volume distribution chart:
The price has not broken through the VAH; when the price reaches here, theoretically, it can trigger a range reversal trade. However, this move is very rapid, causing an overbought condition, and the price may continue to probe higher. We should wait for a new value area to confirm this rise.
I've been resting these days due to COVID-19 symptoms like headache, fever, and cough. Going to the hospital only results in routine symptomatic treatment. It's very uncomfortable. Brothers, the big coin has finally hardened!
Just checked OKX data, $BTC /USDT has broken through the $73,000 mark, currently around $73,100, up more than 6% in the past 24 hours. It was lingering around 63,000 in the past two weeks, but in the last few days it surged nearly $10,000 in one go, short sellers have basically been wiped out on the spot.
🔥 What happened? Triple positive factors combined to ignite the market
First, a sudden shift in the macro environment
The U.S. Treasury announced it will double the scale of long-term bond repurchases, increasing repurchases of bonds over 10 years from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion. Once the news broke, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped accordingly, the dollar weakened, and risk assets collectively rallied. Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, took off directly.
Second, regulatory authorities gave a “green light”
Trump met with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong at the White House, explicitly urging Congress to push the digital asset regulatory bill "Clarity Act" to pass as soon as possible. Senate Republican Whip John Thune has confirmed the bill will be voted on September 15. Armstrong himself stated: "This is a bipartisan consensus bill that will pass with over 60 votes. We may be at the beginning of a new bull market."
Third, the second largest short squeeze in history
During BTC’s rise from $63,000 to $73,000, short sellers betting on a decline were liquidated in a chain reaction. In the past 24 hours, the total short liquidation in the crypto market reached $1.31 billion. Of that, BTC shorts alone were liquidated for over $670 million. On OKX, BTC short liquidations were about $60 million, Binance about $178 million, and Bybit about $193 million. The short covering buying further pushed prices up.
📊 Technical perspective: Is $73,000 a new starting point or an endpoint?
Key data:
· Current price: around $73,100, has broken through the 73,000 mark
· $70,000: first time standing above this psychological level since June
· 200-day EMA: successfully above approximately $71,500
· Next key level: $72,501 — some traders point out that a daily close above this level could trigger further short squeezes, targeting $80,000
· Pattern target: Elliott Wave analysis shows currently in wave 3 of wave 3, target near $77,000
In the short term, this rally is fast-paced, so watch for profit-taking pressure from short-term holders. CryptoQuant data shows short-term holders have transferred 44,300 BTC to exchanges in profit, the largest short-term holder profit-taking event since 2026.
💰 My view: The trend may be changing
This rally is different from previous "fake" rebounds — there is macro shift, regulatory expectations, short liquidations, and technical breakthroughs. Four drivers pushing simultaneously, not just a pure leverage play.
But note:
· Although ETF net inflows in August exceeded $1.47 billion, there is still a net outflow of about $4.5 billion year-to-date; institutional funds have not fully turned around
· The September 15 Clarity Act vote is a double-edged sword — if passed, the rally continues; if not, expectations will be disappointed
· Sharp rises are followed by sharp corrections; $70,000-$71,000 may become a new support range
My strategy:
· For those with positions: hold steady, but consider taking partial profits above $75,000
· For those wanting to enter: wait for a pullback to $70,000-$71,500 to confirm support before entering
· Risk warning: short-term gains are large, chasing highs carries significant risk
From $63,000 to $73,000 took less than a week. Shorts have been cleaned out once, but the real test is at $75,000-$80,000 — a dense area of trapped positions since last November.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 BTC突破72000美元，单日大涨11.8%，直接击穿了过去两个月64000-65000美元的震荡区间。这根大阳线来得干脆，但也把空头彻底碾碎。📈 触及72000美元后，链上爆仓数据触目惊心：总计3.49亿美元仓位被清算，其中空头占2.92亿美元。过去两天，空头累计爆仓超过3.1亿美元。长达两个月的横盘让空头不断加码，价格一旦突破，连环清算便如多米诺骨牌般倒下，买盘顺势将价格越推越高。 这轮上涨并非单一因素驱动，而是三重利好同时引爆： 首先，美国国债回购规模翻倍，长端收益率走低，持有BTC的机会成本显著下降，资金更愿意流向风险资产。 其次，监管预期骤然升温。白宫紧急会议召集了Coinbase、Kraken、Robinhood等交易所CEO，特朗普政府明确推动年底前通过加密货币相关法案。市场将此解读为监管框架即将落地的强信号。 第三，ETF资金持续涌入。连续三天净流入超10亿美元，仅8月19日单日流入就达5.17亿美元，创下5月4日以来的最高纪录。这是实打实的真金白银买盘，为上涨提供了坚实支撑。 山寨币同步爆发：ETH涨超19%，SOL涨超13%，HYPE涨超26%。美股加密板块同样强当前市场确实处于一个非常关键的时刻。截至8月21日，比特币已突破7.2万美元，单日涨幅超11%，以太坊涨约19%，MEME币和特朗普概念币（TRUMP涨超26%、MELANIA涨超13%）更是全线狂飙。 但在狂热之下，有几个关键点值得你重点关注： 🔍 本轮暴涨的本质：逼空行情，而非牛市确认 这轮上涨的核心驱动力是空头踩踏，而非新增多头资金大举入场： 过去24小时全球超18万人爆仓，总金额超30亿美元，其中九成以上是空单 永续合约未平仓量尚未明显回升，说明"目前还没有投资者愿意付出明显溢价去做多" 美国现货比特币ETF投资者平均持仓成本约82,465美元，目前仍处于浮亏状态 简单说：空头被清洗完了，但多头还没真正接棒。行情正从"被动逼空"过渡到需要"主动买入"的关键阶段。#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC The biggest uncertainty after $BTC's surge is here
On August 28, Waller will speak for the first time as Fed Chair at Jackson Hole. With only 18 days left until the September FOMC, this will be his longest public statement since taking office — and the biggest single event risk for the crypto market this year.
This person is quite interesting. Cutting statements, deleting guidance, not releasing the dot plot — he has been subtracting since taking office. The more silent he is, the hungrier the market becomes.
Historical data is also harsh: since 2018, the S&P 500 has a 75% chance of rising on speech days, with mild gains, but two declines of -2.59% and -3.37% respectively. In 2022, Powell’s single word “pain” wiped 3.9% off the Nasdaq in one day. Gains are lukewarm, but drops are deadly.

Three possibilities:
Dovish framework (35%) — no talk of rates, only a "benign story" about AI productivity and long-end yields. The market reads this as "no rush," BTC surges to 75,000, and ETF inflows turning positive could push it to 80,000.
Strategic ambiguity (40%) — reiterate the 2% target without direction. Waller’s default move. BTC oscillates between 68,000-74,000, waiting for September data to speak.
Hawkish surprise (25%) — direct hawkish signal. Once a rate hike signal is out, the probability of a September hike soars above 55%, BTC drops to 65,000, and ETF outflows could see it at 60,000.

There is also a subtle factor easily overlooked: the Treasury just doubled the long-term bond buyback limit, pushing the 30-year yield down from 5.337% to 5.18%. The Fed remains hawkish. Two giants are in a tug of war — Waller controls the narrative, Bostic controls reality. $BTC always follows reality.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Many people think this BTC surge marks the start of a major crypto bull market.
Actually, it is not; this round is a structurally driven short squeeze fueled by macro liquidity.
US Treasury repo volumes have doubled, long-term yields have been pushed down, liquidity has been released, and risk assets have collectively recovered.
Previously, the market was unanimously bearish, accumulating a large number of short positions.
After the rally started, shorts were forced to liquidate and stop losses, and passive buying directly pushed prices higher.
Holding above the key 69000 moving average triggered a large batch of quantitative trend-following buys.
Additionally, easing regulatory expectations, ETF capital inflows, and the White House summit game theory combined to produce a strong bullish candle.
⚠️ But it is important to distinguish:
A large part of this rally comes from short covering, not continuous new buying from growth lines.
Do not blindly treat this as a major trend reversal and chase the highs.
Focus on whether 69000 can hold firmly.
BTC is now highly tied to US dollar liquidity; macro news is far more important than candlestick patterns.
If you don't understand the underlying logic of the rally, you are likely to buy near the top.
$BTCBitcoin treasury company Strive resumes increasing Bitcoin holdings after a pause of over two months
Publicly listed Bitcoin treasury Strive has ended its suspension of more than two months and restarted BTC accumulation, rejoining the ranks of corporate coin hoarders.
The market bulls view this move as a positive signal. The treasury's renewed buying indicates restored institutional confidence, combined with the current warming regulatory expectations, reinforcing the narrative of publicly listed companies allocating BTC. After a slight reduction by Strategy, Strive's return to buying partially offsets concerns about treasury companies turning into sellers.
However, this increase should be viewed rationally. The scale of this round of buying is not large and is more symbolic, unlikely to directly trigger a sharp short-term rally. Treasury companies rely on capital market financing, so if the market corrects, the ability to continue accumulating remains uncertain.
Personal view: This is a medium-to-long-term positive sentiment, not a short-term catalyst for a spike. Corporate treasury buying is a slow variable; the market's strength still depends on ETF funds and macro liquidity. Do not chase high prices based solely on this news.
In practice, spot trading should follow the major trend; contracts still require caution against pullbacks caused by profit-taking after rallies. Follow two points continuously: Strive's subsequent accumulation strength and the buying and selling trends of other treasury companies.