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#BTC acceleration rally, can the funds continue to take over?
$BTC Since August 19, Bitcoin has rapidly surged from the $64,000 range, breaking above $69,000 intraday, with a single-day increase of over 7%. On August 20, it further broke through $71,000, rising more than 10% in 24 hours. As of August 21, Bitcoin has strongly surpassed $72,000.
The core driving force of this rally is a short squeeze. Bitcoin has long been fluctuating around $60,000, with a large number of leveraged short positions accumulated in the derivatives market. When the price breaks through a key liquidation dense area upward, a large number of short positions trigger forced liquidations, and short covering forms a chain of buy orders, creating a positive feedback loop of "the more it rises, the more explosive it gets, and the more explosive it gets, the more it rises." In the past 24 hours, a total of 184,821 people worldwide were liquidated, with a record total liquidation amount of $3.264 billion.
Multiple external catalysts have jointly triggered this rally: the US SEC disclosed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, the White House held a crypto industry summit; the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase scale, pushing long-end interest rates down; funds previously flowing into the AI sector have shown signs of returning.
Can the funds continue to take over next?
Can ETF funds shift from "replenishment inflows" to "sustained inflows"—this is the most direct reflection of spot buying;
Can the open interest of perpetual contracts increase again—this represents whether new leveraged longs are willing to enter the market;
The options market structure around $70,000 may amplify short-term volatility, and market makers' hedging behavior may further boost or suppress the price.#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认
I have been closely following the recent shareholder return trends in the South Korean semiconductor sector. SK Hynix's large-scale buyback has finally been implemented, while Samsung's remains undecided. The expectation gap here is worth pondering.
SK Hynix officially announced its buyback plan, with an execution period from August 20 to November 19, repurchasing 24.07 million common shares, accounting for 3.3% of the total shares. After completion, all repurchased shares will be canceled. Based on the announced reference price, the total scale is about 40 trillion KRW. The direct cancellation rather than holding as treasury stock effectively reduces the share capital and boosts earnings per share, showing full sincerity.
Looking at Samsung Electronics, the current 2024-2026 shareholder return policy includes a fixed annual dividend of 9.8 trillion KRW, plus returning 50% of the cumulative free cash flow over three years to shareholders. With AI memory market conditions improving, company cash flow has significantly improved. Korean media and brokers speculate that Samsung might launch a shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW. However, Samsung's official stance is very cautious; the buyback is still under study, with timing and scale undecided.
Here lies a core contradiction: for South Korean memory chip stocks to continue upward revaluation, relying solely on buybacks and dividends is not enough. The company's cash flow must support two major tasks simultaneously: on one hand, the capital expenditure for continuous expansion required in the AI era; on the other, shareholder returns to investors. The funds are limited, and these two demands are inversely related.BTC 强势站上 7.2 万美元附近，DOGE 也重新测试 0.08 美元区域，这波行情最大的感受不是抄到了最低点，而是没有在震荡阶段提前下车。 我目前的思路： 🟠 BTC 多单 成本约 $63,180，现价约 $72,600，浮盈约 $2,900，杠杆 15X。 一路拿到现在，保护止损已经上移到 $69,800。下一道重点压力看 $74,500–$75,000。 🐶 DOGE 多单 成本约 $0.0726，现价约 $0.0812，浮盈约 $2,700，杠杆 15X。 DOGE 这次没有明显掉队，短线继续关注 $0.083–$0.085 区域。 目前合计未实现盈利大约 $5,600+。 这轮上涨背后也不只是情绪推动。8月20日 BTC 一度突破 $70,000，盘中最高接近 $73,000；美国长期国债回购计划扩大、收益率回落，以及市场对加密监管进一步明确的预期，都成为风险资产反弹的重要催化剂。 另外，单日超过 $2.7B 的空头仓位被清算，也明显放大了这次上涨的速度。 所以现在我不会因为上涨很快就盲目追多。 📌 我的计划： BTC：继续持有，止损上移至 $70K 附近；如果有效Sisters!
I'm back in ETH again!
This time I went straight in with 5 positions!
$ETH, entered at 2,357, going long, 3x leverage, took 5 positions right away!
Do you know why I'm so aggressive?
ETH pushed from 2,220 all the way to 2,380, up 25% in 7 days, 21% in 30 days.
MA5 crossed above MA10 and MA20 at 2,024, price is above all short-term moving averages, MACD golden cross expanding, daily bullish trend confirmed.
24-hour volume is 5.46 million coins, capital is continuously flowing in. This kind of trend, if you miss it, you really miss out.
But what gives me the most confidence? Previously BICO earned 370%, SNDK also profited and exited, so the account has a profit cushion.
Before, I would stubbornly hold when losing, now I dare to push when winning.
5 positions sound like a lot, but stop loss is set at 2,200, total loss is controllable.
The risk-reward ratio is favorable: if wrong, loss is less than 1 point; if right, aiming for 2,500.
The last SNDK short trade earned over 1 point, not much, but it helped me regain my rhythm.
Now ETH is here, the account is rotating, time to act when it's time.
Stop loss at 2,200, target 2,500. Using BICO profits as fuel for ETH. Just go for it!
$BTC $SNDK
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
The leader has something to say
SpaceX's IPO record has only lasted two months before being pushed down by Anthropic.
According to Bloomberg, Anthropic is expected to publicly submit IPO documents as early as the end of August. The fundraising scale is at least expected to match SpaceX's record of $75 billion, potentially reaching $86.2 billion including the overallotment option.
This company confidentially submitted the S-1 draft to the SEC on June 1 and is expected to officially list in October.
Explosive revenue, but losses are also exploding
Anthropic's preliminary Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of more than 14 times. Q1 was only $4.73 billion, doubling quarter-over-quarter. As of the end of July, the annualized recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed $65 billion, a sevenfold increase from $9 billion at the end of 2025.
On the other hand, the net loss for the full year 2025 is close to $42 billion, about four times the $8.3 billion loss in 2024.
Adjusted operating profit turned positive in Q2, which is good news. But under GAAP, net profit has not yet been achieved. Revenue growth and loss expansion are racing against each other.
Valuation target of $2 trillion, how to calculate price-to-sales ratio
The latest private funding round valued the company at $965 billion. Some investors are already discussing an IPO valuation exceeding $2 trillion. Internal company forecasts project revenue reaching $190 to $200 billion by 2028.
Based on $65 billion ARR, a $2 trillion valuation corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of about 30 times, the upper limit for high-growth SaaS companies.
Impact on the crypto market
CoinDesk has previously mentioned that SpaceX and Anthropic, the two largest IPOs in history, will continue to draw liquidity from broader markets including crypto. The most active venture capital in the market is limited, and Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are simultaneously absorbing liquidity, which takes incremental funds away from the crypto market. The price of Bitcoin dropped from 75,000 and has been fluctuating around 72,000, which is related to this context.
From another perspective, if Anthropic successfully lists with a $2 trillion valuation, it will further confirm the capital value of the AI sector. The larger the financing scale for AI infrastructure, the stronger the demand for computing power, energy, and storage, which is not bad for the crypto infrastructure layer in the long term.
Trading strategy
After the Bitcoin short positions were liquidated, I have been out of the market, missing the main upward wave from 64,000 to 75,000. Waiting for a pullback to see if the 68,000 to 69,000 range can hold before considering re-entry. Continuing to hold SPCX as a base position; the buyback logic for SK Hynix remains unchanged, will consider storage after the pullback is in place. $BTC $SOL $ETH
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.$BTC 实盘已开——敬请关注🫡 BTC冲到 75,770 后没有直接续涨，目前回到 74,650—74,750 一带。和第一次冲高后的快速反抽相比，这轮回落的持续时间更长，说明高位获利盘正在兑现，短线多头动能明显降温。 但这里暂时还不能直接判定行情反转。 从不同周期来看： 4小时级别仍然保持明显的多头结构，价格站在主要均线与趋势支撑上方，前面的上涨趋势没有被破坏。 1小时级别属于大阳线后的高位回踩，只要没有连续跌破 74,200—74,300，当前更像上涨后的筹码换手。 真正转弱的是 15分钟和5分钟级别。价格已经回到短周期均线下方，反弹高点逐步降低，说明短线卖盘正在掌握节奏。目前不适合看到一根绿K就追多，也不适合因为回落几百点便直接摸顶做空。 现在重点观察三个区域： 第一道承接：74,500—74,650 盘口在74,500、74,550和74,600附近存在一定买盘。如果价格在这里止跌，并重新站回 74,850—75,000，说明回踩承接有效，后面仍有机会再次测试 75,250、75,770。 核心多空分界：74,277附近 这是本轮短线结构最重要的位置。插针跌破后迅速收回#财报观察员: Is Pop Mart's growth shifting gears, and can multiple IPs take over?
Crypto gave me a signal to stay calm, contrasting with today's big rally in spot.
OKX's Xiaomi perpetual $XIAOMIUSDT is currently at $3.291 (about ¥23.6 CNY), down 1.02% in 24 hours, with funding rates near zero. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong stock closed near HK$27.52 today (about ¥25.3 CNY), with the perpetual trading at a discount to spot.
Derivatives are calmer than spot, with both bulls and bears cautious. Spot surged with high volume today, but perpetual is at a discount; I see this as a divergence between sentiment and fundamentals.
$XIAOMI #BTC accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
What factors have caused Bitcoin's explosive surge?
1. Macro liquidity (the core trigger)
The U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of the long-term Treasury repurchase scale, effective from September; long-term U.S. Treasury yields rapidly declined, and the U.S. dollar index weakened.
With risk-free bond yields falling, capital is willing to flow back into high-risk assets, relieving valuation pressure on Bitcoin and laying the foundation for an upward environment.
2. Shift in U.S. regulatory expectations (positive sentiment)
1. SEC new rule proposal: small token issuances can be exempt from securities registration, providing a compliance safe harbor and reducing industry policy panic;
2. The White House held a crypto industry summit, signaling an end to the "crackdown on cryptocurrencies," promoting the passage of the "CLARITY Act," and rumors emerged that the government is considering allocating Bitcoin; the market shifted from fearing strict regulation to expecting a clear and friendly regulatory framework, raising institutional risk appetite.
3. Futures market short squeeze stampede (short-term surge amplifier)
Many traders opened short positions during the previous consolidation range. After the price started to rise, shorts were consecutively forced to liquidate; liquidations require buying BTC to close positions, and passive buying further pushed prices up, creating a short squeeze.
Over $3 billion in shorts were liquidated within 24 hours, rapidly amplifying the single-day gain, representing a leveraged capital-driven impulse move.
4. On-chain chip support (underlying support)
Whale addresses showed net accumulation, continuously accumulating, reducing market floating selling pressure; combined with market sentiment entering the greed zone, retail investors followed the trend, concentrating buy orders.
Simple ranking of weights: U.S. Treasury liquidity adjustment > improved regulatory expectations > short squeeze liquidations > whale holdings + retail sentiment.
These positive factors all landed within just a few days, resonating to create this rapid rally; a single positive factor alone is unlikely to produce such a large single-day gain. 8.21 $ETH Market｜Strong Bullish Breakout, Mid-term Trend Officially Turns Bullish
After a sharp rally yesterday, it is currently consolidating strongly at a high level with no signs of large-scale sell-offs or escapes.
Multi-timeframe naked K-line closes with a strong bullish candle, officially establishing a short-term bullish trend. All short-term moving averages are spreading upward; as long as the pullback holds above 2300, this bullish momentum can continue.
$ETH Key Levels
Resistance: 2380, 2420
Intraday Support: 2330, 2300
Intraday Overall Strategy: Bullish bias with consolidation, firmly avoid chasing highs
Market Summary
The mid-term structure has opened a bullish pattern, but after consecutive short-term rallies, indicators are already in overbought territory at high levels.
The best approach today is to wait for the price to pull back to support before adding positions; chasing highs directly is very likely to encounter a quick retracement.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 A complete trading plan should not only allow yourself to bottom-fish but also permit buying at higher prices after trend confirmation. Use position sizing on the left side to control uncertainty, and use cost on the right side to exchange for certainty; if no trade occurs on the left side, then execute the right side plan. Don't be afraid when prices fall, and then complain about prices being too high after they rise. $OKB
$BTC has previously entered the buying zone: either wait for a divergence to set up on the left side, or follow through on the right side after breaking through the MA200. After the breakthrough the night before last, we have bought spot and Calls, with the Calls currently profiting over 70%. At that time, BTC had just passed 70,000, with a stop loss reference around 69,000, meaning the risk is only 3%—5%; if BTC accounts for 10% of the total position, the actual account risk is only about 0.3%—0.5%, while the potential return could reach 5 to 10 times. $ETH
When the opportunity comes, execute: control position size, set stop loss, calculate cost, and leave the rest to the market. After BTC breaks through the MA200, it enters a bullish structure, and my strategy has turned bullish.04｜Dual Staking is actually a very critical design
Core's Dual Staking essentially is:
BTC + CORE.
BTC is responsible for providing capital and network security participation,
while CORE further enhances the yield tier of BTC Staking.
The official documentation has already provided the actual participation path for Dual Staking.
The economic logic behind this is worth long-term observation:
The more BTC enters Core → the larger the BTCFi scale → the stronger the demand for CORE → the increase in protocol revenue → the stronger the buyback capability.
If this flywheel truly gets going, then CORE is not just an "L1 Gas Token."
It is more like:
A value capture asset within the BTCFi economic system.Just now, the CFTC spoke more directly: if Congress doesn't act, regulators might take the lead themselves.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly stated in Washington today:
If the CLARITY Act continues to stall in Congress, the CFTC will use its existing authority to start building a regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto asset market.
If the bill ultimately can't move forward, he will ask staff to quickly propose new industry rules.
This statement is much more concrete than "the U.S. supports Crypto."
The market has been waiting:
When will Congress pass crypto regulatory legislation?
Now another path has emerged:
Congress is too slow, so the SEC and CFTC will use their powers to pave the way first.
The signals over the past couple of days have formed a clear line:
The SEC first proposed new token financing rules;
Yesterday, Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and even directly named Hyperliquid;
Today, the CFTC Chairman said if the bill is stuck, regulators are ready to act first.
What’s truly worth trading on is not just a speech.
It’s that U.S. regulatory logic is shifting from:
"Who exactly regulates Crypto?"
to:
"How to legally keep these markets in the U.S.?"
For BTC and ETH, this is the logic behind the entire industry’s risk discount decreasing.
For perpetual contract platforms like HYPE, sensitivity might be even higher—because the CFTC specifically oversees the derivatives market.
But it’s still too early to say "HYPE has been approved to enter the U.S."
The real next step.03｜And Core is now entering its second phase
Early Core was more about proving:
BTC can generate revenue.
But by 2026, Core is clearly moving in another direction:
BTC revenue → protocol income → CORE value capture.
The Revenue Roadmap Core released at the end of 2025 is very clear:
Future income generated by BTCFi products will be connected to CORE buybacks through different mechanisms.
The official core goal is even summarized as:
Drive revenue and buybacks to the CORE token.
This is much more important than simply issuing incentives.
Because a truly sustainable public chain economic model must ultimately answer:
Why do users come?
Why does capital stay?
How does the protocol make money?
Why can the money the protocol earns be reflected in the token’s value?
Core is now trying to connect these four questions.#BTC accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
BTC has surged sharply in the short term, driven by optimistic regulatory expectations, declining US Treasury yields, and large-scale short liquidations, all jointly pushing this round of the market. However, the momentum structure of the rise has already shown divergence.
A large part of this rapid rise comes from short covering, which is passive closing buy orders rather than a large influx of new incremental funds entering the market. As a large number of short positions are cleared, the short squeeze dividend will quickly fade. Whether the subsequent market can sustain depends on spot funds taking over.
My personal view: there is still inertia for a short-term surge, but blind optimism is not advisable. The market has already entered an overbought zone, bullish sentiment is crowded, and there is heavy resistance from trapped positions at 73000‑75000. It is very likely to first consolidate and digest, and the probability of a direct, continuous sharp rise is low.
Two key observation indicators: first, whether spot ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows, which reflects the true attitude of institutions; second, whether the 70000‑71000 support range can hold. If it breaks down quickly, it indicates insufficient relay funds and a risk of concentrated profit-taking and pullback.
In practice: spot base positions can continue to be held to enjoy trend recovery dividends; contracts must strictly avoid chasing highs, and not be blinded by short-term sharp rises. It is better to wait for a pullback to confirm support before considering layout, as heavy positions at high levels have very low cost-effectiveness for speculative play.
No matter how good the positive narrative is, without real money funds taking over, pulse rallies are hard to sustain.我认为这波BTC拉升更多是短线逼空，而非趋势反转，因为成交量和稳定币流动性还没跟上。 8月19日OKX现货BTC/USDT冲上75000美元，24小时爆仓近30亿美元，看似凶猛。 但仔细看资金面——美国BTC和ETH现货ETF合计净流入7.06亿美元，其中BTC占5.17亿，ETH仅1.89亿，说明主力仍在观望，散户和杠杆盘在追高。 我上周在72000美元附近轻仓试多，设止损70500，结果当天就冲高回落，差点被扫损。 后来复盘发现，那波拉升伴随的是空头集中平仓，而非新增买盘持续涌入。 就像去年11月那波“假突破”，也是靠爆仓推动，最后回调超15%。 现在市场分歧很大：有人觉得ETF回流是信号，但我更信数据。 若后续三天日均成交量不能维持在200亿美元以上，且USDT市值不增长，那高位获利盘随时会砸盘。 建议别追高，等回踩72000-73000区间再考虑分批建仓。 记住：牛市里最亏钱的，往往是那些以为“这次不一样”的人。#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 这两天市场最容易让人产生一个错觉： ETH都开始被机构疯狂买了，山寨季是不是马上就来了？ 我反而觉得： 现在还早。 甚至我认为，当前这轮“山寨币轮动”，很可能只是第一阶段的假象。 为什么？ 先看ETH。 机构资金确实正在重新回到ETH。 8月19日，美国现货ETH ETF单日净流入一度达到1.868亿美元；最近几个交易日，ETH ETF资金也出现明显回暖。 更夸张的是企业资金。 BitMine目前已经持有约581万枚ETH，占ETH总供应量约4.8%，距离它提出的5%目标已经非常近。 所以现在说“机构开始重新重视ETH”，我认。 但问题来了： ETH上涨，不等于山寨币马上全面起飞。 这就是很多人最容易搞错的地方。 现在市场的钱，其实还在非常集中。 BTC依然占据接近60%的市场份额。 目前全球加密市场总市值约2.52万亿美元，过去24小时上涨6%以上，但BTC市占率仍然达到59.7%。 这说明什么？ 说明资金虽然进来了。 但还没有真正彻底从大币流向小币。 现在更像是： BTC先涨。 ETH接力。 然后部分大市值山寨跟着涨。 最后散户看到K线开始追。 这才是现在的资金路径。 真正的山寨季Not convinced, just not convinced
Only know how to stare at my position
Is that interesting?
50 $ETH short positions
Floating loss already over 20,000 U
I keep holding on
I just don't believe it
I want to see how long the dog whales can hold on
But I just calmed down and thought for a while
This time, it really can't be all blamed on the dog whales
The US Treasury suddenly doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases
The market immediately started trading on improved liquidity
Plus the White House released positive crypto regulatory news
Trump is pushing the Clarity Act again
Bitcoin directly surged to $70,000
Shorts across the market blew up tens of billions of dollars in one day
No wonder ETH followed all the way up
Seeing this, I was a bit silent too
No
Why do all the good news come out right after I open shorts?
What’s even more frustrating is
US spot ETH ETF inflows nearly $190 million in one day
This is the largest inflow since last October
So this time it’s really not a pump without volume
Spot funds are buying
Contract shorts are covering
Two forces pushing the price up together
But then I thought again
Treasury repurchases can only temporarily suppress yields
US bond yields have already rebounded afterward
How long this positive effect lasts is really uncertain
ETH has now surged near 2350
Daily chart is getting farther from the moving average
Could it really break through 2400 in one go?
No way
My liquidation price is at 2410
I’m watching 2380 now
If it can’t break through here
I still think it will retest 2300
If it really breaks out with volume and holds
Then I can’t just blindly hold on
Looking at $BEAT again
I don’t even know what to say
The market is rising like this
It still drops nearly 20% in one day
I originally thought the altcoin season was coming
$BEAT should at least follow along
21.25 million tokens unlocked in early August
Worth nearly $67.8 million at that time
Equivalent to 6.87% of circulating supply
This hasn’t been fully digested yet
On September 1, about 11.25 million tokens are waiting to be unlocked
No wonder every time it just rebounds a bit
It’s like someone keeps dumping from above
So don’t break 0.12 for now
When it stands back above 0.14
Then I’ll believe it’s not a pump and dump
$SNDK also makes me quite conflicted
It’s risen so much
My first reaction is bubble
Second reaction is to look for a short opportunity
But they just held an investor conference recently
Focusing on AI data centers and high-performance storage
Long-term growth expectations have been raised again
This wave isn’t purely emotional speculation
But at the 1600 dollar level
I definitely dare not chase
If it can’t break through 1631
I’ll keep watching for a retest at 1527
If it really breaks through
Then I have to admit funds are still betting on AI storage
As for BOME
This coin suddenly surged over 30% in one day
Trading volume expanded several times
When I first saw it, I really wanted to chase in
My hand almost clicked buy
Then I thought again
No, going in at this time is just carrying others’ bags
Currently no particularly strong project news
More like the market warming up
Plus Solana-related MEME sentiment exploding
The previously added tens of millions of dollars in DEX liquidity is also boosting trading
Watch if 0.001323 can break through first
If it breaks, it can keep surging
If not, it’s easy to quickly give back gains
After thinking it through
This ETH rise really has reasons
But good news can’t be repeated every day
I’m still not convinced
But I’m not going to prove myself by liquidation
If 2380 can’t hold
I’ll wait for it to fall back
If it really holds steady
I still have to control my position
Dog whales can keep changing the script
I can’t write myself out first
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX $OKB finally caught up, but it’s not the only one among the 6 coins with an upward trend; it’s just following the rally now.
On 8/21 early morning, it rose from 100.9 to 108, currently trading around 106–108, up about 6%. In the past few days, it was stuck between 98–104 and refused to follow the trend. Today, the market squeeze forced it up. The fundamentals of the OKX ecosystem (X Layer, burn deflation model, IPO expectations) remain intact, but this rally is driven by sentiment, not an independent market.
In comparison: $HYPE surged 27% due to Trump compliance, SOL rose 10%, BTC increased 4.4%, and OKB only +6%, ranking behind among the 6 coins. Previously, I said the "only coin with a trend to go long among the 6" was based on the confidence to catch the bottom when it lagged; now that it has caught up, the cost-performance ratio has actually decreased. Also, from 95 to 108, the short-term RSI has returned to the overbought zone (it reached 78 on 8/18).
Support is seen at 100–103: as long as it doesn’t break 100 and there’s no negative news from OKX, it will continue to test 110; however, 108–110 is a previous dense trading area with many trapped positions. Buying in now means profiting from the tail end of sentiment, not from a revaluation of the main uptrend.What really needs to be observed in this $BTC rally is not how much it has risen, but who will take over the baton after $73,000? Breaking through $73,000 is indeed just the first shot. After $73,000, the real core to watch for the relay is whether spot demand can take the baton from "short covering" and absorb the pressure from overbought conditions and profit-taking.
🚦 Why is the "relay" after $73,000 the core issue?
This surge largely benefited from a short squeeze; in the past 24 hours alone, about $431 million in short positions on $BTC were liquidated. But this force is one-time only. For the market to continue upward, it must find new funds (spot and $ETF capital) to sustain buying.
🔍 Three "relay signals" you need to watch closely
The relay is not yet complete, and signals are mixed:
· Relay party one: $ETF and institutional funds (promising but needs observation)
· Good news: Since August, net inflows into $BTC $ETF have been about $1.48 billion, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity recently injecting nearly $300 million in a single day. Wall Street giants like Jane Street also hold nearly $1 billion in $BTC $ETF assets.
· Bad news: Overall, the gap left by the former "largest buyers" has not been fully filled, and $ETF funds have not yet stabilized enough to dominate the market.
· Relay party two: Whales and on-chain demand (accumulating but needs time)
· Good news: Whales are "buying up," increasing holdings by about 43,000 $BTC over the past 60 days. CryptoQuant data also shows this is the first time since last October’s peak that both spot and perpetual contract demand have simultaneously turned positive.
· Bad news: This warming signal is still "moderate in scale," and analysts believe it will take at least a month of sustained activity to confirm a bull market return.
· Potential resistance: Profit-taking by short-term holders
· Recently, Bitcoin on Binance recorded the largest-ever profitable UTXO transfer. This is a clear profit-taking signal, indicating short-term holders who were previously underwater are now selling after breaking even. This supply is the first hurdle above $73,000 that spot demand needs to absorb.
💎 In summary
The key to this rally lies in whether $ETF and whale buying can continue and expand to absorb the loosened chips and profit-taking above. If subsequent spot buying can take over, the rally has room to continue; otherwise, if the relay falters, short-term overbought correction pressure will emerge.
Are you more focused on $ETF capital inflow data or on-chain whale position changes? #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Awake! Night session quick update:
$SPCX closed at 134, dipping to just over 130 at the lowest point, the rhythm is okay, short positions are still viable!
Storage has actually been holding up pretty well these past couple of days, $MU is currently at 980, $SNDK at 1600. I mentioned earlier that it’s unlikely to hit new lows directly. But how it moves still needs to be watched step by step.
For optics, $LITE and $AAOI have rebounded nicely, but note that these two stocks usually move very similarly. $AXTI hasn’t broken below 70 and is still consolidating. I personally bought in. $COHR dipped to 280; I think if it holds above 300, it can rally. You can start positioning now.
Also, I’ve said before $NOK is pure trash, buying this stock is basically wasting money, it moves slowly and the rebound strength is weak.
I also have $MRVL, it’s doing okay, currently at 250, I’ll hold on to it.#Fed July FOMC Minutes 9-3, Officials Still Divided on Rate Hikes The Fed's July FOMC minutes show a 9-3 vote, with internal disagreements on rate hikes still present
$BEAT has basically ended its rally; don't hold onto hopes for a rebound recovery.
The story of "the wolf is coming" won't play out a third time. I repeatedly advised shorting on rallies at the beginning of the month when the price was still around 4U, and I judged that the 0.15 support would be hard to hold. Those who listened have already made good profits.
I still maintain the view: not recommended to go long. There will be a large volume of token unlocks and selling pressure ahead, so please remain cautious.
$AEON has retraced about 10% from its high, but the overall trend has not deteriorated.
The holding volume remains high, indirectly indicating that the main players have not exited. My approach: the pullback is a buying window, and I keep a base position; I will not fully exit before it breaks above 0.12, as there is still room to rise.
LAB and BEAT are in a similar situation and are unlikely to strengthen again. The operational logic of these two tokens is very similar, suspected to be the same funding scheme. The previous rise was due to only 9% circulation, with the main players using low circulation to pump and dump; now circulation has reached 77%, making it very difficult for users trapped at high levels to break even.$BTC This round of rally was initially driven by short squeeze. Approximately $3 billion in short positions were forcibly liquidated, creating a typical short squeeze scenario, pushing the price up sharply in a short period.
Positive signals have appeared in the funding side. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently recorded continuous net inflows, with cumulative net inflows in August approaching or exceeding $1.5 billion. On August 19 alone, the single-day inflow exceeded $500 million, marking one of the largest single-day inflows in recent months.
BlackRock's IBIT continues to lead, with products from Fidelity, ARK, and others also attracting capital simultaneously. Institutional funds are flowing back through ETF channels, indicating that this is not purely leverage-driven but includes some medium- to long-term allocation capital entering the market.
The short-term holder cost baseline has been reclaimed, spot demand indicators have turned positive from negative, contract positions have begun to rebuild after liquidation, but funding rates have not yet shown extreme crowding, indicating the market has not fully entered a "high leverage frenzy" state.
Whether ETF inflows can maintain continuity and scale is a key question. If there is a significant slowdown or net outflow later, prices are likely to enter high-level consolidation or even retracement.
Whether spot buying truly keeps up is also critical. After the short squeeze rally, if trading volume shrinks and on-chain activity declines, upward momentum will weaken.
Technical overbought conditions and profit-taking pressure exist. Some indicators have entered overbought territory, so short-term pullback and correction are normal. The key is whether support around $70,000–$68,500 can hold. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
$SNDK strengthened again today, reaching as high as $1631 intraday, currently around $1600, up over 2% from the previous close; but don't forget it plunged 9% in a single day on August 18, this stock is truly a roller coaster. AI data center demand, NAND price increases, and the company's high growth targets remain the core logic. Sandisk expects revenue to grow mid-to-high single digits to double digits annually from 2028 to 2030, with a gross margin target of about 80%; however, valuation and volatility are already quite exaggerated. I tend to believe "strong long-term logic, but don't chase the frenzy in the short term."$SPCX holds the 130 level
Bottom-fishing success ✅
Short-term target first looks near 140
SpaceX is currently in a typical "high growth + high valuation + high controversy" phase. Fundamentally, Starlink's continuous profitability and rapid revenue growth are solid positives; however, delays in Starship progress, massive AI spending, and gradual unlocking of shares create short-term pressure.
Focus on the exact timetable for Starship's 14th test flight—if approved and successfully captured in the short term, it could be a catalyst for a stock price rebound; if further delayed, pressure may continue. Additionally, selling pressure from subsequent batches of unlocked shares remains a concern.
Achieving Starship milestones is key to valuation expansion. If Starship achieves rapid reusability, SpaceX's 10-year lead in launch costs will gradually translate into financial returns.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX 这波行情，我反而不建议大家现在疯狂追多。 因为真正危险的，往往不是暴跌的时候。 而是所有人突然觉得“跌不了了”的时候。 这两天BTC从6.3万附近一路干到7.2万上方，24小时内超过30亿美元空头被强平，部分统计显示这轮空头清算已经创下近年罕见规模。(Decrypt) 而且这次上涨并不是单纯靠情绪。 美国财政部扩大长期美债回购规模，长端收益率压力缓解；特朗普在白宫加密峰会上继续释放支持加密行业的政策信号。 几个因素叠在一起，再加上空头集体止损： 空头越爆，BTC越涨。 BTC越涨，空头越不敢留。 越不敢留，就越要买回来。 这就是典型的逼空。 所以现在最关键的问题已经不是： “BTC还能不能涨？” 而是： 7.2万上方的买盘，到底是真正的新增资金，还是一场轰轰烈烈的空头回补？ 我的判断很简单。 短线我会重点盯住三个位置。 第一，7万美元。 如果BTC回踩7万附近，能够快速收回并站稳，说明前面的突破没有被完全吞掉。 这种情况下，7万可能从压力位变成支撑位。 第二，7.3万—7.5万美元。 这里才是真正需要观察的地方。 因为逼空行情最容易出现一种假象： 价格涨得特别快。 但真正的现货接盘没有$PEOPLE understands clearly that crypto players currently have no interest in high-tech, high-market-cap, high-VC projects because they have experienced FLOKI, PEPE, IRDI—these low-market-cap coins skyrocketing dozens of times. Therefore, they are not interested in those high-market-cap VC coins. Concepts like real-world asset tokenization (RWA) and top-tier high-performance L1 universal new public chains, although impressive and powerful, are irrelevant to these players and hold no appeal. Instead, these crypto players prefer grassroots culture and coins that can make a comeback.The recently released initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 206,000, below the market expectation of about 210,000, with the previous value revised up from 209,000 to 212,000.
Looking solely at the initial claims figure of 206,000, the market's first reaction is often that expectations for a Fed rate cut cool down again, which creates short-term logical pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies and gold. After all, layoffs are decreasing, and the job market still appears to maintain strong resilience.
However, if we consider the continuing claims rising to 1,799,000 alongside this, the real picture behind it is not a booming job market but rather a typical frozen state.
Currently, companies generally adopt a strategy of neither hiring nor firing; existing positions in the market have not experienced large-scale breakdowns, but once someone becomes unemployed, the difficulty and duration of finding a new job are indefinitely extended. This micro-level liquidity freeze reflects the true temperature of the labor market far better than just the number of layoffs.
For the Federal Reserve, this data sends a rather ambiguous signal. On one hand, initial claims remaining low means there is no urgent short-term pressure to prevent a recession through rate cuts, and the high interest rate environment still has reason to continue; on the other hand, the persistent decline in continuing claims quietly erodes labor resilience, indicating the overall economy is still evolving toward softening.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC: A Short Squeeze Is Not the Same as a Bullish Reversal A short squeeze happened overnight, and suddenly the comment section is full of people calling it a bullish reversal. Let's slow down. $BTC jumped more than 6% in 24 hours, with the move heavily amplified by short liquidations. Recent market data shows billions of dollars in crypto shorts were wiped out during the rally. But a squeeze and a sustainable trend reversal are two different things. After more than a decade in the market, I've#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Trump calls on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, will $BTC still rise?
The bill's passage is indeed positive, but don't equate "calling out" directly with "BTC taking off." After the news, BTC briefly broke through $72,000, rising over 11%, already pricing in expectations early; if the bill is truly enacted, clarifying the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, it is expected to reduce compliance uncertainties for institutional entry, which is a long-term positive for BTC and the entire industry.
The problem is the bill is still stuck in the Senate, with the market betting the probability of passage in 2026 at only about 22%-24%, so if it really passes, there could be another rise, but in the short term it looks more like "profit-taking on good news plus increased volatility."$BTC: The Market Rewards Patience Before the Breakout $BTC doesn't need to break out today to remain interesting. In fact, the most important phase may be happening while the market feels quiet. What matters now is how Bitcoin behaves inside the current range. If sellers continue to get absorbed and demand remains steady, this sideways movement could gradually turn into a base for the next move rather than a signal of weakness. The biggest mistake is waiting until everyone becomes bullish beforeI’m Cige. After $SNDK surged toward 1,800, the stock entered a period of high-level volatility. On August 18, it fell more than 9% at the open, then rebounded intraday on August 19 before giving back another roughly 3.5%. The message from the market is becoming clearer: the storage sector is facing growing valuation divergence. The long-term growth targets unveiled at Investor Day remain the key catalyst behind the sector’s rebound. Goldman Sachs has set a $2,200 target, JPMorgan raised its targ特朗普这次放的信号，白宫加密峰会之后，很多人开始喊： 美国是不是准备大规模买比特币了？ 我的答案是： 有这个方向，但现在还不能直接理解成“美国政府马上砸几百亿买BTC”。 这两件事，差得非常远。 特朗普政府早在2025年就已经正式建立了“战略比特币储备”，但当时核心方式并不是直接拿财政资金疯狂扫货，而是把政府已经持有、没收的比特币纳入储备。白宫文件同时要求寻找“预算中性”的方式增加持有量。 所以我真正关注的，不是特朗普今天有没有喊一句“买BTC”。 而是： 美国正在一步一步把比特币，从“高风险资产”往“国家级战略资产”这个位置上搬。 这才是最值得警惕的地方。 如果未来美国真的通过法律，允许财政体系、黄金资产、联邦机构收益或者其他预算中性方式持续增加BTC储备，那性质就完全变了。 因为到那个时候： 美国不是在炒币。 而是在囤一种全球稀缺资产。 更狠的是，其他国家怎么办？ 美国开始囤，别人不跟？ 那就意味着别人眼睁睁看着美国增加自己的数字资产储备。 所以我反而认为： 真正的大行情，可能不是来自特朗普某一次讲话，而是来自美国政策最终落地的那一天。 但现在千万别把“战略储备”四个字，直接等同于Market Flash ｜ Day 5
#BTC accelerates rally, can funds continue to take over?
#White House Summit: Trump said he discussed buying BTC
Is the bull market really here?! BTC surged $10,000 in two days!
$BTC surged $10,000 in two days, driven by multiple factors, but a single sharp rise cannot be directly equated with the arrival of a bull market.
Liquidation situation: This round is a typical short squeeze, with total liquidations across the network exceeding $3.3 billion, and short liquidations accounting for over 90%. The market was generally bearish earlier, with a large accumulation of short positions; after the price broke resistance levels, forced liquidation of shorts triggered passive buying, further pushing up the price, creating a chain short squeeze, with leverage amplifying volatility.
Reasons for the rise
1. Macro level: US Treasury yields declined, the market repriced rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets.
2. Regulatory expectations: US crypto policy shift expectations heat up, spot ETF funds flow back, institutional buying provides support.
3. Capital game: Early bottom selling pressure has been digested, combined with concentrated short covering, short-term quant funds follow the trend, amplifying the rise.
Objective reminder: A significant part of this rise comes from passive short covering, not entirely new long-term spot funds. The market has entered a greed zone, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking in the short term, increasing the risk of a pullback.
To truly confirm a bull market, we need to see if the price can sustain at high levels, continuous ETF fund inflows, and the implementation of macro rate cuts; one or two big bullish candles alone are insufficient to determine the start of a bull market. Looking at the performance of the top 100 by market cap yesterday and today, this wave is indeed one of the rare broad rallies seen this year.
The most obvious change is not that a single coin surged dramatically, but that capital is starting to spread from single-point rallies to multiple sectors.
First, Meme coins are active again.
BOME, PEOPLE, NEIRO, PUMP, PENGU, WIF, PNUT, TURBO, etc., all appear among the top gainers.
A single Meme coin rising might be due to news stimulus, but a group of Memes becoming active together more reflects a rising market risk appetite.
Second, long-dormant old coins are also collectively moving.
ONT +26.90%, GAS +19.15%, QTUM +12.05%, NEO +10.08%, including STEEM entering a strong zone.
These old projects from 2017–2021 moving together indicate that capital is no longer satisfied chasing a few popular narratives but is starting to spread to low-position, high-elasticity assets.
Third, the BTC ecosystem is showing clear linkage.
STX +15.18%, ORDI +14.80%, 1000SATS +12.89%.
If only one project rises, it can be understood as individual coin logic; several projects in the same track strengthening together signals sector rotation.
Fourth, DeFi is also taking over.
ENA +29.88%, OSMO +29.26%, CRV +11.61%, LISTA +11.53%, with RSR also showing active performance.
Fifth, and what I consider most important: large-cap coins are starting to participate.
XRP +15.92%, ADA +11.74%.
This is a completely different concept from a pure small-cap rally.
If only high-elasticity coins like ONG, BOME, NEIRO are surging, it only indicates speculative sentiment has returned.
But when large-cap coins, DeFi, BTC ecosystem, Meme, and even old coins all start rotating, it shows the market’s risk appetite is spreading from localized activity to a broader range.
What’s truly worth noting these two days is a phenomenon not seen for a long time:
Money is starting to flow in different directions.
Of course, two days of broad rally is not enough to prove the market has completed a trend switch.
What we really need to watch next is whether this sector rotation can continue, and whether strong coins can maintain relative strength after the next market pullback. 如果把美国看成一个“项目方”，把美元看成这个项目发行的“代币”，很多原本复杂的宏观经济问题，突然就变得很好理解了。 任何一个项目方，想要维持自己代币的价值，首先要解决的问题，就是：谁来接盘，代币有什么用？左金右饼！#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 于是，要不断给代币寻找应用场景。DeFi 项目要做 Earn，让你把币存进去赚收益；要做 Trade，让你不断交易；要做 Pay，让代币进入支付场景。 而美国做的事情，其实也差不多。美元需要成为全球贸易的结算工具，需要成为石油、大宗商品的定价货币，需要成为各国央行的储备资产，需要成为全球金融市场的抵押品和避险资产。于是，一个个巨大的“池子”被建立起来。美债，是最大的池子。美股，尤其是 AI 和 Big Tech，是另一个巨大的池子。加密市场，也正在成为新的美元承载池。 你会发现，这些池子的一个共同任务，就是：不断吸收越来越多的美元。 而美国这个“项目方”，当然也有自己的“链上手续费”。那就是——税收。理论上，美国政府应该通过收税获得收入，然后支付军队、政府部门、公共服务和各种财政开支。这就像一个区块链项目，希望依靠手续费维持整个生态运#BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over? Bearish but not selling 🈳 Hold tight $SNDK $BTC $SPCX 📊 SanDisk (SNDK) Today's Overview
On August 20 (Thursday) close, SanDisk rose 2.02% to $1600.62, reaching an intraday high of $1631.40. It slightly retreated 1.41% after hours to $1578. Year-to-date increase is 574%, with a one-year gain exceeding 35 times.
🔍 Recent Key Developments
① Storage sector continues to strengthen: On August 20, the US stock storage sector collectively rose, SK Hynix up over 4%, Micron up over 3%. Samsung Electronics surged over 10% at one point, driven by expectations of a historic shareholder return plan.
② Hedge fund Leopold forced to liquidate $5.6 billion: AI hedge fund led by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner massively built positions in SanDisk in Q2 but suffered heavy losses due to AI sector sell-off in July, forcing most holdings to be sold to Ken Griffin's Citadel. This partly explains SanDisk's nearly halved stock price in July — the sell-off was due to forced liquidation by the fund, not deterioration of company fundamentals.
③ Institutional views generally bullish: Consensus rating from 24 analysts is "Buy," with an average target price of $2126 (33% above current), highest target at $3600. Bernstein reiterated a $3000 target. However, Jefferies maintains only $1750, with the most pessimistic target as low as $1000.
④ Significant divergence between bulls and bears remains: Q2 13F filings show Discovery Capital increased holdings to 208,000 shares, Rokos Capital up 28%; while David Tepper's Appaloosa cleared about 280,000 shares, Renaissance Technologies cut positions by over 99%.
🎯 Summary in one sentence: SanDisk continued its upward trend on Thursday, supported by the overall strength in the storage sector; Leopold's forced liquidation explains the "non-fundamental" nature of the July plunge. Institutional average target prices still imply 33% upside, but the divergence between conservative players like Jefferies and aggressive ones like Bernstein indicates the bull-bear battle is far from over. We combine Xiaomi's financial report to value Xiaomi's three major businesses: first, the smartphone business; second, IoT and internet services; third, car manufacturing:
1. Smartphone Business (Mature Hardware, Traffic Entry Point)
Current status: ASP continues to hit new highs, progress in high-end market, but rising storage chip prices suppress smartphone gross margin.
Conservative: 8-9x PE
Neutral Optimistic: 10-11x PE
However, it is expected that storage chip capacity will be released in the second half of the year, allowing smartphone gross margin to recover.
2. IoT & Internet Services (Cash Cow)
IoT acquires hardware users, internet services have 75%+ high gross margin, forming the basic profit base of Xiaomi.
Conservative: 14-16x PE
Neutral Optimistic: 18-20x PE
Strategic goal is to approach the Apple ecosystem to obtain higher valuation.
3. Car Manufacturing Business
Loss-making business, valued using PS sales ratio. Q2 has already seen delivery rebound and continuous narrowing of per-car losses; focus in the second half is on the delivery performance of the Pengcheng series.
Conservative: 0.8-1.0x PS
Neutral Optimistic: 1.4-1.8x PS (with synergy premium for human-vehicle-home ecosystem)
Note: Cash flow is sufficient
Conservative scenario: HKD 27
Neutral midpoint: HKD 33
Optimistic scenario: HKD 40
Personal opinion combined with AI analysis, please kindly advise.On the chessboard, a pawn marked "Initial Jobless Claims" gently advances—206,000, one square more than everyone expected. The sound of the move echoes in the silent midgame; the players who were ready to sacrifice a piece for a rate cut now hesitate with their fingers hovering in midair.
I am the player sitting in the corner. In this industry for twenty years, I've learned not to judge a chess game by its surface. The initial claims data every Thursday night (Eastern Time) is just a tick on the chess clock. This week: 206,000, revised from the previous 209,000 to 212,000. On the surface, this is a "defensive reinforcement." But true grandmasters know its real intent is to adjust the tactical rhythm of the entire small king's wing. The market had almost unilaterally bet that the Fed would quickly turn dovish due to weak employment. That kind of bet is like an amateur player opening with a queen attack—focusing on a single target while ignoring that the opponent's pawn chain has quietly locked down the center.
We often say in chess: advantage is not about how many pieces you capture, but whether the position is within your calculation. This initial claims data beating expectations by 4,000 certainly reduces the urgency to turn dovish, but it doesn't change any fundamental structure. It's like Black exchanging the h-pawn for the g-pawn, seemingly affecting the pawn formation, but White's king remains safely in place, and the rook on the queen's wing is not restrained. The real big picture still hangs on the three-step deep calculation involving inflation, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC meeting. Those trembling over this small step probably forgot: the outcome of chess is never decided by a single move, but by the coordinated forces you reserve for the endgame.
And the XSKHY I’m watching is especially delicate. It’s like a queen’s knight placed on e5—advancing risks falling into the opponent’s pawn net; staying put controls two important squares simultaneously. Today's data gives it no reason to break out, nor does it bring a threat of encirclement. The board is as quiet as the moment waiting for the opponent’s king and rook to castle: all seemingly obvious attack routes hide counterattacks. In a grandmaster’s mind, every move must anticipate twenty moves ahead. The current initial claims data isn’t even a "passing pawn" in the midgame, at best a waiting move. But the market is often fooled by such waiting moves. Retail investors cheer when it’s "better than expected" and flee when it’s "worse than expected," unaware that true masters are setting up the endgame—using today’s resilience to force the Fed into a clearer dovish path in the future. When the opponent is forced to choose between "inflation defense" and "employment loosening," that’s when we gain real advantage.
So I do not move. Let those eager to "check" with one week’s data push their queens forward. My king’s wing pawns remain unmoved, the center is locked in a multi-pawn standoff, and the open lines on the queen’s wing are still controlled by my two rooks. This resume of 206,000 proves only one thing: the opponent called "the labor market" has yet to show a flaw. And my advantage lies precisely in that—you all are focused on this immediate move, while I have already written down the next twenty moves on my draft paper.
The square for move 20 still has no name.
#ImpactCycle·Weekly #MacroData·Employment #206K·Expectations210K When that stack of draft prospectuses was thrown onto the desk, I immediately smelled the rust of concrete dampness—not a design blueprint, but a damage report on the load-bearing walls.
The layout was set on June 1, with plans to reach zero elevation by the end of August; this smart company’s ambition to rush the schedule is considerable. But when you open the general structural description: annualized revenue of $65 billion, with a generously sized floor area; adjusted operating profit turned positive, but it’s just like applying a layer of moisture-proof coating on the shear walls. The truly glaring detail is the fine print—an estimated net loss of $42 billion in 2025. On any construction site, this would mean the foundation settlement exceeds the design allowable by three times—would you still dare to forcefully repair the underground garage? Structural engineers reading the prospectus first look for the load combinations: whether the IPO financing amount and the loss figures are placed under dead load or live load columns, each added load corresponds to a muffled thud on the site.
Anyone in our field knows that no matter how grand the whitepaper renderings are, they can’t beat a real structural calculation sheet. SpaceX’s $75 billion financing is equivalent to the neighboring plot building a tower crane with rocket recovery technology—that’s a proprietary patent. What about this company? The load-bearing walls are enterprise customer orders, and the permanent load is the computing power electricity cost. The higher the floors climb, the fiercer the wind load—the typhoon of large model training, can your scale law seismic system really withstand it? Q2 revenue is $11.5 billion, annualized to $65 billion, this growth rate is like a tower crane working nonstop for seventy-two hours. But every floor’s net profit is absorbed by the giant pile of computing power costs; the rebar surface is labeled "adjusted profit," but inside it’s still corroded. The green shoe mechanism of $8.62 billion? That’s just a backup footing, able to buffer uneven settlement, but it can’t fix the missing "economic cement" in the concrete mix.
I’ve reviewed countless projects by “rendering masters”: some died from foundation pit water inflow, some were destroyed by curtain wall wind pressure, some collapsed amid the opening ceremony fireworks. This secretly submitted prospectus is equivalent to digging out the zero elevation from underground, exposing it under every structural engineer’s telescope. Then everyone will ask: is the so-called "enterprise-level revenue" really a load-bearing shear wall, or just a row of light steel keel gypsum boards? The capital market’s spotlight shines on the facade lighting, but it can’t penetrate the abandoned wires hidden in the mechanical and electrical shafts. The worst isn’t the net loss figure, but that the structural system lacks a continuous load transfer path—from model training to enterprise delivery, every beam and column is temporarily assembled by outsourced teams, bolts aren’t tightened, welds aren’t inspected.
I’ve seen too many boxes that look good on the outside: glass curtain walls reflecting daylight, a twelve-meter-high lobby on the first floor, but the piping in the equipment mezzanine is tangled like a ball of yarn. Anthropic’s pre-IPO night is like suddenly requiring a wind tunnel test before topping out the building—you’ll find that the so-called "scalable" architecture drifts beyond code limits under strong wind. What does adjusted profit turning positive mean? It’s just placing settlement observation points on the non-load-bearing side. The real load test is making every dollar of revenue carry the cost of every kilowatt-hour of electricity through the load transfer path, not stamping a "passed" wink on the calculation sheet.
I won’t sign off on completion for a super high-rise without a structural calculation sheet. #AnthropicIPONears MRNA's recent movement is quite interesting
On August 19, Moderna and Merck announced the Phase 3 interim results of the mRNA cancer vaccine
The personalized vaccine combined with Keytruda showed significant superiority over Keytruda alone in melanoma
The trial enrolled 1,137 participants, achieving both primary and secondary endpoints
Previous Phase 2b five-year data: recurrence risk reduced by 49%, distant metastasis risk reduced by 59%
On the day of the announcement, the stock price surged from 63 to 174, a 177% increase
It dropped 23% the next day, closing at 133
//
This is a real scientific breakthrough
mRNA has proven itself for the first time in a large-scale cancer Phase 3 trial
No longer just a COVID vaccine
But I won’t chase it in trading
After the drop, MRNA is still 63% above the analysts' average target price of 82.62
The company posted a net loss of 782 million last quarter, with revenue of 145 million
Personalized production, costs, approvals—each step takes time
How much of the 177% surge was driven by sentiment and short covering? The 23% drop the next day partly answers that
//
Moderna indeed has a new data-backed story
But the current price already factors in many optimistic expectations
I won’t chase, but I don’t dismiss it either
Waiting for complete data, no rush
The above is purely personal observation and not investment advice. Dyor
$MU $ETH This short squeeze is even stronger than BTC's
On 8.20, a massive bullish candle of 18.5% pushed from 2,090 to 2,248, and this morning it stabilized between 2,317–2,338. In two days, it rallied from the 1,900 range by over 20%. But coinglass shows that on 8/19, ETH futures shorts were liquidated by over 1 billion dollars in a single day, which is clearly a short squeeze, not new inflow, just like BTC.
Institutions are really buying this time: spot ETFs have had net inflows for 3 consecutive days, with about 189–220 million dollars on 8/19 alone (ETHA leading with 122 million+, FETH 36.53 million+), the largest single-day inflow in nearly 9 months, with a monthly total of about 345 million. Fidelity's FETH 100% staking amendment is still going through the SEC process; the staking ETF narrative hasn't fully played out yet, which is a unique incremental logic for ETH.
However, the RSI dropped from 46.5 into the overbought zone, indicating a large short-term deviation; also, today the 30-year US Treasury weakened again, and the 10-year yield returned to 4.7%, so expectations for liquidity easing still need confirmation. Trump's call for the CLARITY Act and the SEC's 402-page rule draft are emotional fuel, not concrete positive news; this is not a realization of good news but likely expectation hype. Be careful, Trump might pull a taco on you.An easily overlooked fact: OKB currently cannot be used to offset OKX trading fees.
Therefore, an increase in OKX trading volume does not necessarily directly translate to an increase in OKB value. When analyzing OKB, more attention should be paid to X Layer's Gas, staking, and ecosystem usage.BTC has risen above 75,000, surging 10,000 in two days, and the whole network is saying the bears have been crushed.
Don't just see the short squeeze; the squeeze is only the fuse, the real strength comes from a major liquidity shift.
The 30Y US Treasury yield has soared to a new high of 5.34% since 2007, forcing the US Treasury to increase long-term bond repurchases, with market calls hoping to push it directly to 10-30 billion per month.
The money released from the bond market has to find an outlet, and BTC is the asset most sensitive to liquidity.
$BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Brothers, yesterday BTC directly surged to 69,000, and ETH also climbed back above 2000+. This move was really sudden!
The core points are three:
1. US debt repurchase doubled, liquidity expectations improved
2. Over 1.4 billion shorts were forcibly liquidated, short squeeze accelerated
3. ETF funds flowed back + regulatory signals turned warmer
Now the key question: Is this a bottom reversal signal, or just a rebound after a pure short squeeze?
My personal view: In the short term, it will most likely pull back to digest first (BTC key support at 66,500-67,000), medium term depends on whether ETF can sustain net inflows and the progress of the Clarity Act.
What do you think? Should we chase the rally directly, or wait for a pullback to get in? Share your views in the comments, I'll debate with you!$BTC $ETH People often ask me, if I give you another 10,000 yuan, can you still make it work?
If it's just a small amount of capital, constantly trial and error, giving a few more 10,000 yuan, under my 10x leverage, it's very easy to compound profits.
But what if all the funds are liquidated and only 10,000 yuan is left?
You might fall into a huge sense of loss from gaining and then losing, in an environment of constant self-doubt, not knowing if you still have the courage to stand up again.
Although in recent years I have consistently recovered from 50% drawdowns and maintained asset ATH, I still fear if the market suddenly loses liquidity, how I could make money in a situation with no volatility.
This question leads to some thoughts on how to ensure the chips in hand never get completely lost?
Doing some capital isolation, even buying some property, trying to make your safety cushion thick enough so it’s impossible to lose it all. Yesterday I watched a video by Sister Mao. She also experienced going to zero three times but is now close to entering the A9 million-dollar club. Her interview sounded like hearing a lot of principles but felt like not hearing anything at all. Haha
But if I go back to the kind of life in 2020, under pressure, I wouldn’t know how to start over. So, large capital is conservative, small capital tries high risk, which is the path needed after growing big.Key turning point signal! Treasury Secretary's major dual statements, bond market contradicted, BTC strengthens against the trend 🔥
The most core macro rhythm across the entire network, see through the current market in one sentence!
Latest dual heavy remarks from the U.S. Treasury Secretary:
✅ Middle East cools down: abandoning large-scale military actions, only using economic sanctions to suppress Iran, short-term geopolitical black swan risk relieved!
❌ Bond market contradicted: calling for increased Treasury buybacks, claiming the deficit has peaked, but U.S. Treasury yields directly rebounded and U.S. stocks plunged!
Key truth:
The Treasury's market rescue is only verbal intervention, not a Federal Reserve rate cut, treating symptoms not the root cause, the bond market completely unconvinced!
But the crypto circle shows independent resilience!
BTC surged violently 12% in two days, fundamentally not relying on liquidity, fully benefiting from the policy expectation dividend of the U.S. Clarity Act!
New variable: Japan's inflation rises, subsequent rate hike expectations heat up, global macro still hiding volatility.
⚠️ Current biggest contradiction:
Bond market pressure not relieved, macro concerns remain, the market is fully supported by crypto policy expectations!
Whether it can continue depends only on the September 15 bill vote + U.S. Treasury movement! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $ETH $SOL $DOGE After Micron's market value surpassed $1 trillion, it invested $10 billion to establish a laboratory. The core conflict lies in the risk trade-off between the near- to mid-term massive capital expenditures suppressing cash flow and the long-term AI storage pricing power.
$MU's single-day rise of 3.9% reflects market sentiment rapidly improving under high-profile political and corporate endorsements, with bullish funds concentrating short-term bets on its industry position. However, the annual $1 billion R&D combined with capital expenditure plans of $28 billion for fiscal 2026 and $47 billion for fiscal 2027 will directly alter institutions' discounted free cash flow models.
Currently, the main drivers in the market are ranked as follows: first, the increased risk appetite brought by political and client endorsements; second, the high-profit cycle of storage chips due to supply shortages; third, concerns over capital expenditure eroding cash flow. When capital expenditure jumps from $28 billion to $47 billion, marginal funds will begin to reassess profit sustainability.
The upside scenario triggers if the chip supply-demand tightness lasts longer than expected, and high profit margins can absorb the added Capex pressure. At this point, it is necessary to observe whether the free cash flow yield for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 can remain above the valuation support line; if quarterly results show continued gross margin expansion, bulls will push valuation premiums further.
The downside scenario triggers if the industry cycle peaks causing product average prices to fall, with high fixed asset depreciation and annual new investments amplifying profit elasticity downside risks. If long-term funds sensitive to high Capex begin to withdraw from the position structure, loosening chips will trigger valuation compression and lower trading targets.
For the bullish logic, invalidation signals are a reversal downward in storage chip product average prices and a reduction in the $47 billion capital expenditure plan for fiscal 2027; for the bearish logic, invalidation signals are the early achievement of high gross margin mass production of next-generation advanced packaging products, fully covering cash outflows with excess returns.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the overall risk appetite transmission in the semiconductor sector and long-term institutional position adjustments under massive Capex expectations.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大At the BTC 74939 level, institutional voices alternatingly speaking up can no longer ignite genuine buying pressure; the order book can only be observed through the actions of the most fundamental funds. Spot orders have continuous buy orders supporting between 73600 and 74000, and the perpetual funding rate has quickly returned from negative to positive, indicating that shorts are beginning to cover. Open interest contracts have accumulated above 74600, creating obvious stop-loss liquidity. Under this structure, as long as the pullback does not break 73600, the bulls control the rhythm. Once it reclaims 75200, the stop-losses of shorts above will be triggered collectively, causing a short squeeze. Just turned the car into an old neighborhood without an elevator; when the client got off, I glanced at the transaction details—there were indeed active taker orders around 74200, not fake limit orders. In terms of operation, do not chase highs; wait for a pullback to the 74200 to 74600 range to lightly buy long positions, with a stop-loss defense at 73580. If it breaks below, it means the buying pressure is fake and you must exit. The first take-profit target above is 75600, the second take-profit target is 76800, with a sufficient risk-reward ratio. If it falls below 73600 with volume, the rebound logic is directly invalidated; do not reverse positions, wait for the next accumulation zone.
$BTC
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
@OKX星球 After BTC surged, altcoins started telling their own stories.
PONS up 50% in one day (Robinhood Chain launched for a month with trading volume exceeding 2.5 billion, repurchasing and burning 28% of circulation); TRUMP meme +25%; Hyperliquid's HYPE +19%; SOL also +11%.
This kind of "platform tokens + meme + independent catalysts" rising together hasn't been seen since the end of last year.
But don't get carried away. Those who shouted "altcoin season" every time altcoins rose were trapped last year. Watching if the trading volume can sustain is more important than the price increase.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 8.21 BTC trading idea: Buy around 2330-2350, stop loss at 2300, first target 2400, second target 2450
ETH current price 2347, after yesterday's surge, the price is consolidating strongly at a high level with no obvious selling pressure release. Short-term moving averages are diverging upwards; as long as the pullback does not break 2330, the bullish trend continues. In this structure, pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Don't fear the highs. In a strong market, the less willing you are to buy, the more it rises; the longer you wait for a pullback, the less likely it will come. As long as the structure holds, following the trend to go long is much safer than trying to guess the top against the trend.
Short-term focus:
Support below: 2330-2320
Stop loss: 2300
First target above: 2400
Second target: 2450
In terms of operation, enter long positions in batches within the 2330-2350 range, with a unified stop loss at 2300. Reduce positions to protect profits when the first target 2400 is reached, and hold the remaining positions aiming for 2450. Do not go all in at once; enter in batches, control risk well, and leave the rest to the trend.
Once the trend forms, it will not end easily. Follow the trend, don't fight the market #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $ETH