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On August 21, only 7 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with a sharp decline in traffic volume.
The United States announced the "most severe economic war in history" against Iran, escalating the US-Iran conflict.
Brent crude oil neared $95, and WTI broke through $86.
Geopolitics is pushing oil prices, oil prices are pushing inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are pushing Bitcoin and gold.
Gold has risen for three consecutive days, breaking through $4,600.
Bitcoin surged over 25% in a single week, breaking through $78,000.
The strong performance of traditional safe-haven assets has given Bitcoin the spillover effect of "digital gold." Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but some officials lean toward rate hikes, the US dollar weakened temporarily, and the US Treasury intervened in the long bond market. These three factors combined—dollar weakness, Middle East war, and suppressed long bond yields—create the perfect scenario for both gold and Bitcoin to rise simultaneously.
But one thing is worth considering: Bitcoin rose 24% in the past week, gold rose 5%, and Brent crude rose 5.6%.
Bitcoin’s increase is five times that of gold. Bitcoin is being traded as "high beta gold"—when geopolitical risks arise, it rises more sharply than gold; when geopolitical risks subside, it also falls faster than gold.
The $78,000 level prices in not only the debt narrative but also the gunfire in Hormuz. When the gunfire stops, the premium will also retreat. $BTC Is this a true bull market return, or just a massive bull trap? Don't blindly go all in!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
This rally in Bitcoin has truly ignited sentiment across the entire network.
In just three days, BTC violently surged from 64,000 to 78,000, a one-sided jump of 14,000 points.
In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $3.3 billion, with 90% being short positions wiped out.
Now the whole market sentiment has completely changed:
Two months ago, everyone was shouting bear market, breakdowns, and zero price;
Now the screens are flooded with: the bull is back, all in, charging to 80,000, 100,000 incoming!
Here, I must pour a bucket of the clearest cold water:
Don’t rush to define a bull market, and definitely don’t get carried away and go all in! This is a strong rebound, not a confirmed main uptrend!
1. Acknowledge the facts: this rally really has logic behind it, it’s not just a pump and dump
I’m not bearish nor denying the rally; this round of gains is indeed supported by solid fundamentals:
1. The US Treasury’s bond repurchase injections have loosened short-term liquidity, causing risk assets to collectively recover;
2. Large net inflows into BTC ETFs, with institutions putting real money in to support the bottom;
3. The short side is extremely crowded above, with massive short positions stacked between 68,000–72,000; after breaking through, a cascade of short squeezes triggered, the higher it goes, the more shorts explode, fueling further gains.
So this rally is not a fake spike; it’s the result of a triple resonance of news, capital flows, and short squeeze sentiment.
2. But! Three fatal flaws prove the bull market is not yet confirmed
Many only look at the gains, not the essence, which is the easiest trap to fall into.
1. The main driver of this rally is "short covering," not new perpetual buy orders
The $3.3 billion liquidations are mostly shorts stopping losses.
Short covering is a one-time buy; once done, it’s gone.
After clearing shorts, there’s no new long follow-through, so the rally can lose momentum anytime.
ETF inflows on a single day don’t indicate a trend!
A true bull market requires continuous net inflows over several weeks; a single day’s impulsive capital can’t support a major cycle reversal.
2. The macro turning point is just an expectation, not yet realized
Currently, it’s only short-term liquidity easing expectations.
The Fed hasn’t cut rates or shifted to easing.
All gains are priced on anticipation; if the reality falls short, it will trigger profit-taking and a sell-off.
3. Technicals are severely overbought; chasing higher is a death sentence
The daily RSI is already in extreme overbought territory, and the short-term slope is too steep.
Crypto’s iron rule: sharp rises must be followed by sharp corrections.
Such violent rallies detached from moving averages never fail to retrace for consolidation.
Just crossing the 200-day moving average is meaningless; holding above it, not breaking on pullbacks, and repeated confirmations define the real trend. History is full of fake breakouts that trap late buyers.
3. Precise key ranges for the future market (follow these exactly)
Strong resistance above: 80,000–82,000
This is a historically dense trapped zone and previous top chip peak.
The first touch will trigger a sharp pullback; absolutely do not chase higher!
Mid-level watershed: 70,000–72,000
The lifeline of this rally.
• Holding this on pullbacks means a continuation pattern with new highs ahead;
• Breaking below 69,000 decisively means this is just a super rebound, not a bull market start, and the market returns to weak consolidation.
4. The most correct trading mindset at this stage
1. Don’t go all in, don’t chase highs, don’t add leverage
The fastest way to lose money in a bull market is to get overleveraged when the market just heats up.
The current frenzy is exactly the same extreme emotional state as two months ago’s panic.
2. A true bull market always gives a second chance to enter
A real major trend never finishes with a one-day explosive rally.
The classic early bull pattern: violent surge → deep pullback → solidify bottom → then start main uptrend.
3. All current signals are "suspected bull," not "confirmed bull"
Continuous ETF inflows + Fed truly shifting + support holding on pullbacks
Only when all three conditions are met can we talk about a new bull market.
Right now, none are fully realized.
Final honest words
Those shouting bull market now
Are most likely the same people who shouted zero price two months ago.
The market can go up, but it can also fall back anytime.
Heat, rebounds, and profit opportunities ≠ trend reversal.
Making money is hard; don’t get harvested by FOMO emotions.
Save your ammo, wait calmly for pullbacks, and stay cool — you’ll last longer than reckless all-ins.
⚠️ Risk reminder: This is only a personal market review and discussion, not investment advice. Crypto markets are highly risky; always strictly control your position size. The U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks from 2 billion to 4 billion, suppressing long bond yields and weakening the dollar.
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater publicly recommends allocating gold and Bitcoin to hedge debt risk.
The Iran war has pushed oil prices up, and gold has risen above $4,600.
Bitcoin is being traded as "digital gold." These three factors combined have driven it from $62,000 directly up to $79,000.
But how long can the Treasury's intervention last? Even Bassett himself said the market is "a bit overreacting." After a brief decline, long bond yields are under pressure again, and the intervention effect lasted less than a day.
Dalio's allocation advice is a long-term logic and won't change tomorrow's trend. The Iran war premium could also fade at any time due to a ceasefire announcement.
Tomorrow's direction near $79,000 depends on which of these three variables changes first.
If there are signs of easing in the Iran situation, the war premium will quickly dissipate. If long bond yields rise again, the dollar's weakening trend may be reversed.
If ETF inflows slow down, spot buying will immediately come under pressure. The $79,000 level is not driven by strong bulls but by macro factors. When the macro winds calm down, the price will return to where it should be.
$BTC #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？
1. Opening valuation severely overdraws future expectations (fundamental reason)
The issuance price-to-earnings ratio is already 219 times, while the industry average is only about 38 times.
The opening surged to a market value of 444.9 billion, corresponding to a non-recurring net profit of 591 million, with a price-to-earnings ratio close to 800 times.
This price essentially prices in all the high growth expected over the next 5-10 years in advance.
The market's neutral reasonable expectation range was originally 150-200 billion, but the opening more than doubled that, indicating a huge valuation bubble.
2. Shareholding structure: Concentrated profit-taking by lottery winners
New stocks on the STAR Market have no price limits for the first 5 days, and the initial circulating shares are very small, only 7.44% of shares are tradable, making the float light and easy to be driven up or down by capital.
• The original cost of lottery shares was only ¥150.8, with huge unrealized gains at the opening; the highest profit per lot was ¥470,000, so the willingness to cash out is very strong.
• The turnover rate on the first day was 85%, with many low-cost lottery winners selling at high prices; the buyers were short-term funds chasing the high.
On the second day, without low-cost lottery funds to continue supporting, buying power dried up, selling pressure released, and the stock price plunged.
3. Performance growth has shown signs of slowing
Revenue in 2025 is expected to increase by 332% year-on-year, an explosive growth.
But in Q1 2026, revenue growth slowed to 68%, and non-recurring net profit declined by 52.55% year-on-year.
The company forecasted that growth will continue to slow in the first half of the year, with profits squeezed by large increases in R&D and sales expenses.
The market gave an 800x valuation based on "300% annual high growth," but with growth already slowing, the valuation cannot be sustained.
4. Logic of positive news realization: "First humanoid robot stock" is realized upon listing
Before listing, the market long speculated on the expectation of the "first humanoid robot stock," with a large amount of capital pre-positioned in the sector.
When the actual listing occurs, it is the "boot dropping, positive news realized" moment.
Once the story becomes reality, capital no longer pays for distant narratives and begins to scrutinize real commercialization issues.$BTC $ETH #BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain? • Reasons for the surge: 3 billion short squeeze liquidation + Treasury Secretary bond buyback + 1 billion ETF inflow over four days + White House regulatory incentives, four forces squeezing shorts, not a pure retail bull • Is the bull market here? Technical bull market (weekly +20% breaking 200-day moving average), but not confirmed as a long-term bull • True bull signals: BTC breaks 94.8k (2026 previous high), continued ETF inflows, CLARITY approval in September, Powell leaning dovish • Fake bull risks: short squeeze exhaustion above 78k, 30Y yield returns to 5.3%, ETF outflows → pullback to 75k/2.3k • Strategy: do not chase above 78k, wait for pullback to 75k (BTC)/2.3k (ETH) to see support; reduce positions if breaking 70.8k/2.2k In short: short squeeze rebound ≠ long bull, 78k is a turnover zone, not a floor, September will determine true or false.$BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Bitcoin (BTC) Rigorous In-Depth Analysis
Important Note: Our country prohibits virtual currency trading speculation. The following is only an objective review of overseas market logic and does not constitute any investment advice. Bitcoin is a high-risk speculative asset, traded 24/7 without price limits, with significant drawdown risks.
I. Asset Nature and Underlying Mechanism
Bitcoin has no cash flow, no interest, no credit endorsement from any entity, with a hard cap of 21 million coins, produced through mining, halving approximately every four years to reduce new supply.
1. Supply Side: Halving reduces new circulation, but halving is a condition for supply contraction, not a sufficient condition for price increase. Historical data shows that as market capitalization expands, the price elasticity from each halving diminishes progressively; the supply shock effect weakens continuously and must be matched by incremental demand to realize a rally.
2. Network Effect: The strongest network effect in crypto, with the most complete liquidity, custody, and derivatives infrastructure, serving as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market.
3. Market Structure Evolution: Deep institutionalization has been completed; the US spot ETF has become the main institutional entry and exit channel; ETFs act as two-way valves, allowing large inflows and large-scale redemptions, not a one-way buying reservoir.
On-chain data shows the proportion of long-term holders' positions continues to rise, with a large amount of chips settled in cold wallets; however, short-term traders and derivatives leverage still dominate short-term price volatility.
II. Core Pricing Drivers (Ranked by Weight)
1. US Real Yields (Primary Macro Constraint)
Bitcoin is a non-interest-bearing risk asset; opportunity cost is determined by US Treasury real yields.
• Real yields rising: Holding US Treasuries yields real returns, markets demand higher risk premiums for BTC, usually suppressing prices;
• Real yields falling: Opportunity cost of non-interest assets decreases, benefiting Bitcoin valuation.
Key objective phenomenon: Correlation is not constant. During liquidity crises, Bitcoin falls in sync with US growth stocks and does not have stable safe-haven properties; it cannot be simply equated to digital gold and only shows safe-haven behavior in specific scenarios.
2. Institutional Capital Flows (Spot ETFs, Whales, Corporate Holdings)
Daily net inflows/outflows of ETFs are the most direct incremental observation indicator currently.
• Sustained large net inflows over multiple days represent real institutional incremental entry; single-day pulse inflows have limited reference value;
• Sustained redemptions directly exert price pressure.
3. Regulatory Policy Narratives
US SEC legislation, regulatory lawsuits, and compliance access act as catalysts, not sole drivers of major trends; they accelerate existing market directions. Positive regulatory expectations can temporarily boost prices, but unmet expectations cause rapid pullbacks.
4. Halving Supply Cycle
A slow variable and long-term background condition, unable to independently drive bull markets. Past bull runs were driven by the synergy of halving, liquidity easing, and incremental capital; supply contraction alone cannot counter macro tightening.
5. Derivatives Leverage (Source of Short-Term Volatility)
Perpetual contract funding rates, long-short positions, and liquidations create short-term spikes and short squeezes.
⚠️ Important distinction: Leverage-driven rallies are stock gameplays and do not indicate trend reversals; mid-to-long-term trends require confirmation by spot capital. Many rebounds come from short covering, not new buying, and have poor sustainability.
III. Market Status and Key Price Levels
After reaching the historical high of $126,198 in October 2025, a deep correction occurred, and the market entered a consolidation phase of institutional and retail competition.
• Strong resistance zone: $78,000–$83,000: Dense historical trapped chips area. Breaking through alone is insufficient; a daily close above with spot capital inflow is needed to confirm a valid breakout. Larger resistance near $85,000 above.
• First key support: $69,000–$71,000, the platform of this rebound; falling back below this range casts doubt on the rebound's validity.
• Mid-term strong support: $60,000–$62,000, the previous large box consolidation center, dense on-chain cost absorption zone.
• Extreme bottom range: $57,000–$58,000, confluence of 200-week moving average and cycle bottom; a valid break opens deeper downside.
IV. Bullish Logic (Objective Opportunity Points)
1. Long-term supply constraint: The fourth halving has occurred, sharply reducing new mining output; long-term holders' chips continue to settle, exchange inventories are at multi-year lows, and circulating spot supply decreases.
2. Institutional base formation: Spot ETFs, family offices, and overseas enterprises have formed base allocations; institutional holdings hit new highs, irreversibly changing market participant structure.
3. Macro liquidity inflection expectation: If US inflation continues to fall and the Fed starts a rate-cut cycle, real yields decline, benefiting valuations.
4. On-chain valuation indicators at mid-to-low cycle levels: MVRV and other on-chain valuation metrics are not in historically extreme bubble zones, leaving room for allocation narratives.
V. Core Risks (Not to be Ignored)
1. Macro liquidity reversal risk: US inflation rebound, Fed maintaining high rates, real yields running high, continuously suppressing non-interest assets. This is the biggest current risk factor.
2. ETF capital two-way risk: ETFs allow large redemptions; institutional capital is not permanently locked; sustained net outflows directly cause selling pressure.
3. Heavy historical trapped chips: Large amounts of high-entry chips accumulated in the $78,000–$85,000 range; prices near cost zones mean selling pressure to break even will suppress upside.
4. Leverage backlash risk: After rebounds, long leverage can quickly accumulate; once trends reverse, cascading liquidations amplify declines.
5. Regulatory black swan: US crypto regulatory tightening and unmet policy expectations can rapidly shock market sentiment.
6. Cycle logic weakening risk: With huge market cap, the marginal impact of halving supply shocks weakens; historical cycle rules cannot be linearly extrapolated.
VII. Key Tracking Observation List (Rigorous Analytical Dimensions)
1. US 10-year real Treasury yield (macro master switch)
2. US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net capital inflow/outflow
3. On-chain indicators: MVRV, long-term holder positions, exchange BTC balancesLast night, Bitcoin once approached $80,000.
It wasn't because an ETF was approved. It wasn't because the Federal Reserve loosened monetary policy.
It was because Washington surrendered.
From August 18 to August 20, within 72 hours—SEC proposals, CFTC taking action, and the White House stepping up. The three-stage rocket of U.S. crypto policy ignited simultaneously.
This is not an ordinary positive news event. This is a watershed moment for U.S. crypto policy.
The enforcement era is over. The era of system building has begun.
The first signal: SEC (regulatory layer)
On August 18, the SEC officially proposed the "Crypto Asset Regulatory Rules"—the first time in history that financing rules tailored specifically for crypto assets have been introduced.
What was the situation with issuing tokens before? Either you didn’t register and waited to be sued, or you registered but couldn’t find a suitable channel. The SEC Chair himself said that in the past, the SEC was a "weaponized, aggressively enforcing agency targeting this asset class."
What about now? Two clear exemption paths—$5 million accumulated over four years, or $75 million annually. Moreover, once a project completes its core development, tokens can "graduate" and exit securities regulation.
What does this mean?
For the first time, there is a legal path to issue tokens in the U.S.
Not a gray area, not "waiting to be investigated"—but rules written in black and white.
The second signal: CFTC (backup layer)
On the same day, CFTC Chair Selig clearly stated that if Congress continues to delay, the CFTC will independently establish a crypto market regulatory framework using existing authority.
Two-pronged approach, not putting all eggs in one basket.
Selig even cited the 19th-century futures market history—when commodity exchanges were blocked by states as "gambling." What happened in the end? The U.S. established a unified federal regulatory framework.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
Today’s crypto is like the 19th-century futures market.
The third signal: The White House (political layer)
Trump met with about 20 industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, and others in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, publicly calling on Congress to pass a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act.
Note, this is not a "discussion." This is the President personally endorsing and publicly pressuring Congress.
He said something worth pondering: "This will let the U.S. lead China and other countries."
Washington took 8 years to realize one thing: rather than pushing crypto companies to Singapore and Dubai, it’s better to keep them in the U.S. paying taxes.
The market is voting with real money.
Bitcoin has risen over 24% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023, once approaching $80,000. Coinbase surged 8.2% on Friday.
In the past 24 hours, 189,000 people worldwide were liquidated, with liquidations totaling $1.459 billion.
Short sellers were bloodied.
This is not retail FOMO. This is institutions repricing U.S. crypto assets.
What does this resemble?
Like after the 2000 internet bubble burst, when the U.S. established a clear regulatory framework for the internet.
No one back then could foresee today’s tech giants.
Today’s crypto industry stands at the same starting line.
What Washington is doing is not "cracking down on crypto"—it’s building a home for crypto.
The SEC provided financing rules, the CFTC provided a market framework, and the White House gave political endorsement.
The three-horse chariot started simultaneously.
To be honest.
In recent years, what the crypto industry feared most was not a bear market—it was uncertainty.
The SEC sues this one today, investigates that one tomorrow. Projects dare not operate in the U.S., users dare not trade in the U.S. Talent and capital flee overseas.
What about now?
Rules are here. Framework is here. The President is on board.
Uncertainty is turning into certainty.
And certainty is the fuel for a bull market.
What’s next?
On September 15, the Senate will hold a key vote on the CLARITY Act.
If it passes with 60 votes—the U.S. crypto industry will enter a truly legal era.
If it fails—the CFTC has already said, we’ll do it ourselves.
Either way, the direction is set.
Washington spent 8 years and finally made a choice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Gold has strongly broken through the $4600 mark, showing an unusual trend: despite high U.S. Treasury yields, gold prices continue to surge. Traditionally regarded as a safe asset, U.S. Treasuries' safe-haven status is fading.
The core issue is no longer just an interest rate game. U.S. debt has surpassed 40 trillion, increasing fiscal pressure, and the market has begun trading sovereign credit risk. When bonds carry credit concerns, capital flows to gold, which has no issuer risk, as a reserve hedge. Global central banks are continuously reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves, amplifying this trend.
The market is clearly divided. Bulls believe gold has entered a major credit-hedging cycle with medium- to long-term upside potential; cautious voices warn that the recent sharp rise is crowded, and once the U.S. Treasury market stabilizes and recovers, gold will face a sharp correction, so blind chasing is unwise.
Personal view: U.S. Treasuries have not completely lost their safe-haven function, but an additional layer of credit risk premium has emerged. Only when the debt crisis intensifies will gold continuously squeeze bond allocations; under normal conditions, both still serve their respective roles.
Mapping to the crypto market, gold's strength benefits the "digital gold" BTC narrative. But it is important to distinguish that gold is a safe haven, while Bitcoin is more of a risk asset and not fully synchronized. A surge in gold prices does not necessarily mean crypto prices will follow; the main market drivers remain ETF funds and U.S. Treasury yields.
In practice, do not chase gold at high levels; be cautious of rapid fluctuations in crypto markets caused by changing macro expectations. Going forward, focus on tracking long-term U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. fiscal-related statements.Hidden Risks Amid the Surge: The More the Short Squeeze, the More Caution Needed for "Longs Killing Longs"
This weekend's market action was both exciting and nerve-wracking. Here's a clearer summary of the core logic and trading approach:
1. Market Status: Unusually Strong
· Tremendous momentum: $BTC, $ETH, $XAU have all risen for three consecutive days, with sideways movement replacing pullbacks. The short-term rally even surpasses the main uptrend expected in 2024-2025.
· Obvious short squeeze: The surge of over ten thousand points left no breathing room for shorts, and a batch of positions in the futures market must have been "wiped out overnight."
2. Driving Forces: Policy-Driven Market, Not a Bull Market
· Core driver: This rally stems from a chain reaction triggered by "long-term treasury bond repurchases," combined with Trump’s phase-specific positive expectations.
· Capital divergence: Retail investors have low participation due to previous losses; institutional whales’ buying power hasn’t reached bull market frenzy levels, making this more of a policy-driven pulse rebound.
3. Market Outlook: Beware of "Longs Killing Longs"
· Pullback inevitable: Severe short-term overextension means a sharp drop will follow the surge, and the magnitude won’t be small. Major players have strong profit-taking motives and will likely "quietly crush" chasing long positions.
· Real opportunity: When liquidity further expands at the end of August, a larger-scale rally is expected, which will be the best window.
4. Trading Strategy (Recommendation)
· Watch more, trade less: The current risk-reward ratio is very poor; chasing the rally or shorting is like playing with fire. Waiting and observing is the optimal choice.
· Risk control first: If you can’t resist trading, be sure to strictly stop losses, reduce leverage, and prioritize preserving capital.
This short squeeze is truly exhausting; resisting the urge to chase is commendable. Since the major move is expected at the end of August, it’s better to conserve strength these days.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Is Trump about to "issue a coin" again?
What’s more worth paying attention to this time is not that there’s another Trump coin to speculate on, but that Trump’s media is trying to bring the traditional shareholder reward mechanism onto the blockchain.
Simply put, this type of Token is more like a reward certificate, with the core logic being to provide on-chain rewards to eligible shareholders, rather than directly launching a new cryptocurrency for free market trading.
Currently, there is no clear evidence in public information indicating it will open a public secondary market, nor can it be directly determined whether it will be listed on centralized or decentralized exchanges.
So the three questions that deserve the most attention now are:
Can it be transferred?
Can it be traded?
Will it really be listed on exchanges?
If these conditions gradually open up in the future, its nature may change significantly.
But before these things are realized, it’s still a bit too early to directly compare it with $TRUMP.
There is also another issue.
While Trump is promoting crypto regulation, he is also connected to family crypto businesses, and conflicts of interest have always been a focus of public discussion.
Especially facing the midterm elections, this "politics + crypto" combination itself is prone to controversy.
So what’s really worth watching this time is not whether it will surge.
But whether traditional stock rights can truly be moved onto the blockchain through Tokens.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 This round of $BTC rally is not just a technical rebound.
Expectations of improved liquidity, a weaker dollar, and concentrated short squeeze together pushed the price up to $75,000.
But a short squeeze can only explain the "fast rise," it cannot guarantee "stability."
The next thing to watch is not how many shorts remain, but whether spot and ETF funds can continue to absorb the buying.BTC is still in the "bottom confirmation" phase, and the price-level bottom confirmation is already very strong.
The strongest evidence is:
* BTC around $78,096
* 200WMA only $64,163
* Safety cushion has reached +21.71%
* Newhedge MVRV-Z rose to 0.87, moving from deep undervaluation into the recovery zone.
But today we must add a yellow alert:
1k–10k BTC: single day -32,706 BTC, 7 days -13,070 BTC, 30 days -16,449 BTC.
Since at the same time the >10k BTC group had a single day +29,521 BTC, there is likely a significant address tier-crossing/aggregation effect here, so I will not overturn the bottom confirmation judgment based on this item alone for now.
Currently, I still subjectively maintain the probability that "60–64K is already the final bottom area of this round" at about 85%–90%; the probability of falling back to 52–55K has been compressed to about 3%–5%.
In the next 24–72 hours, the most important factor is no longer the 200WMA, but whether this -32.7K BTC in the 1k–10k BTC range is an address migration or if the big whales have really started to continuously distribute in the 75–78K range. If the next data returns positive, the bottom confirmation will continue to strengthen; if the 7-day distribution continues to expand and BTC loses 70K, then the short-term probability of retesting 67–70K will significantly increase. $xMU Micron YTD up 231% but underperformed the market this week, September 29 earnings report is the next critical point
YTD up 231% but underperformed this week
Micron $966.78, -0.77%. YTD still +231% from $285 start. But this week BTC rose 24%, Micron only up 2.83%, and fell on Friday. The storage sector collectively declined, Western Digital -2.05% the worst.
NAND third but spot weak
Q2 NAND market share rose from 13.9% to 15.1%, surpassing Kioxia to become third. ASP rose sharply, the main reason for revenue growth. But DRAM spot supply and demand remain weak, NAND trading momentum is also weakening.
September 29 earnings report is the critical point
Micron reports earnings on September 29, but Nvidia reports earlier on August 26. If NVDA earnings miss expectations, the entire AI hardware chain including Micron will be dragged down. This is the biggest short-term risk for holding Micron.
Market divergence
Optimists see NAND third + three-line progress + FA undervaluation; cautious point out P/E 27x is not cheap + spot weakness + NVDA earnings risk. Overall fundamentals are improving but volatility will be high before September earnings, waiting for $900 to confirm support $ETH from 1900 to 2549: After a 34% short squeeze, will it continue charging or take a halftime break?
$ETH peaked at 2549, starting from around 1900, with a cumulative increase of over 34%, breaking through the 2200, 2400, and 2500 levels without significant pullbacks.
The momentum behind this rally comes from multiple factors:
First, a chain reaction of short liquidations. After breaking key levels, high-leverage short positions were liquidated in succession, fueling accelerated gains.
Second, an improved macro environment. Expectations of a US "mini QE" and a decline in long-term US Treasury yields have supported risk assets.
Third, continuous inflows into ETFs, accelerating institutional allocation.
Currently, 2550 is a short-term key resistance level. If it can hold with volume, the next target is 2700-3000. If there is volume without price increase or a long upper shadow, the risk of a short-term pullback rises.
After a 34% gain, profit-taking has accumulated sufficiently. The trend is upward, but chasing highs requires assessing the risk-reward ratio.
Whether the bull returns or not is unknown, but rhythm is more important than direction.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $CORE has been above the 60-day moving average for the third day! Many people are already enjoying 3U, 6.9U! Wondering where the end point this time will be! Sharing a personal view: right now it's a broad rally, a collective recovery after a lot of decline. For now, it can only be seen as a rebound, just like many other projects that have just crossed the 60-day moving average a few days ago! It's just that the rise looks more intimidating! As mentioned before, it needs to stay above for more than a week to possibly see a reversal! To really have a big market move, it needs an independent narrative, to develop an independent trend, so everyone can get the expected results! So for now, everyone still needs to be patient! What should come will come back eventually, and what shouldn't come, no matter what you think, won't! Don't swing from extreme panic to extreme confidence just because of short-term ups and downs! Stay steady, just be a firm holder!$BTC violently surged, mainstream altcoins moved collectively, but only $OKB remained stable and sideways. What is the logic behind this? This round of BTC short squeeze rally is very interesting: ETH, SOL, and many mid-to-large cap altcoins showed obvious follow-up gains, a typical Beta-wide rally, but OKB neither followed the rise nor fell sharply, maintaining a range-bound oscillation, showing an independent "stable" trend. It's not that it has no volatility, but buying pressure and selling pressure offset each other, forming a strong equilibrium state. 1. Why can most altcoins move up together, but OKB stays stable in place? 1. This altcoin rise is dominated by retail speculative funds, completely different from platform coin logic. This altcoin rebound mainly comes after BTC's big rise, where retail FOMO funds speculate on high-volatility altcoins to earn short-term sentiment premiums, a rebound driven by rapidly increased risk appetite. - Ordinary altcoins: bet on narratives and short-term hype; as long as market sentiment warms, speculative funds quickly push prices up; - OKB (platform coin): does not speculate on short-term sentiment, its price anchor is tied to the exchange's real performance. Its rise requires actual increases in OKX spot and futures trading volume, higher fee income, and stronger expectations for buyback and burn to trigger a rally. Simply put: altcoins speculate on expected sentiment; OKB speculates on real business data. The market has just started, trading volume hasn't fully expanded, performance hasn't been realized, so funds lack motivation to actively push OKB. 2. With selling pressure on one side and base holdings on the other, the price is tightly stuck in a range, so Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Performance Outlook (Based on Market and Analysis Around August 22, 2026)
Currently, BTC is around $77,000–$78,500 (up about 20%-24% this week, marking the strongest weekly gain since 2023), and ETH is above $2,500. The market is driven by short squeeze, Treasury buybacks, favorable policies, and ETF inflows, with sentiment entering the greed zone.
Bitcoin (BTC) Short-Term Key Levels and Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Bull-Dominated):
Most technical analyses suggest bulls still control the situation, with the next important target at the $80,000 psychological level. If BTC can hold steady at $77,000–$78,000 and break out with volume, it could test the $80,000–$82,000 range. Some analysts set the year-end 2026 target near $100,000 (the "bear tail turning bull start" view).
Consolidation/Correction Scenario (High Probability Short-Term):
RSI is clearly overbought (daily often above 80), so after a rapid rise, high-level oscillation or pullback is likely. Key support is at $75,000–$76,000 (previous highs/breakout level), with deeper support around $72,000–$73,000. Falling below $70,000 could trigger a deeper correction.
Risk Points: After rebuilding leveraged positions, if spot buying fails to keep up or macro data worsens, volatility will increase once short squeeze momentum fades.
Ethereum (ETH) Short-Term Key Levels and Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
ETH shows relatively strong momentum, having broken through key moving averages and approaching/testing the $2,500 level. If it breaks and holds above, the next target could be $2,600–$2,800. The ETH/BTC ratio still has potential upside (some analyses point to about 30%-40% relative gains). Institutional allocation interest has recently favored ETH.
Consolidation Scenario:
Support is around $2,400–$2,450, with deeper support near $2,300. The overall structure is cleaner than BTC, so the correction magnitude may be relatively limited.
Common Drivers and Risks
Bullish Continuation Factors:
• U.S. Treasury liquidity support + pressure on long-term rates.
• Positive regulatory signals (progress on the CLARITY Act).
• Continued net inflows into ETFs + accumulation by large whales.
• Positive spot and perpetual demand (some on-chain analysis suggests weakening bear market signals).
Main Risks:
• Profit-taking after short-term overbought conditions.
• Jackson Hole meeting and subsequent macro data may trigger volatility.
• If ETF inflows slow or regulatory progress disappoints, the sustainability of the rally will be challenged.
Comprehensive Judgment
• Short term (a few days to 1-2 weeks): High probability of initial high-level consolidation to digest gains; direction depends on holding $75,000–$77,000 (BTC) and above $2,400 (ETH). The bullish structure remains, but chasing highs carries higher risk.
• Medium term (next few weeks to quarter): If capital and policies align, continuation upward is likely, with BTC testing $80,000 and ETH strengthening further. Some optimistic views have begun discussing higher year-end targets. $BTC Exclusive Analysis｜ETH's Second Surge in Fifteen Months, But I Need to Start Warning About Risks
First, let's look at a very important data point:
ETH's price increase so far this week has reached about 35%.
What does this mean?
This is the second time in about 15 months that ETH has experienced such a significant weekly surge. The last time was around May 5th last year, with a weekly increase of about 39%.
You could say, after fifteen tough months, we finally see a truly substantial weekly bullish candle.
But I want to highlight a very important risk:
The price increase is close, but the volume is far from matching it.
That 39% weekly bullish candle last year was clearly volume-driven, and every subsequent weekly rally was supported by trading volume, ultimately pushing ETH from around 1800 up to about 4900.
And this time?
The weekly increase has reached 35%, but the current trading volume is only about 30% of that big bullish candle last year.
The price is running too fast, but the money hasn't kept pace.
This is the biggest risk right now.
Additionally, the 2400–2450 range has always been a very important previous resistance zone.
Although the price has now broken through it, I am not yet defining this as a true breakout.
There is still insufficient volume support above 2400, and a pullback confirmation is needed.
At the same time, I am revising my previous judgment about August:
Originally, I expected a return to around 2000 by the end of the month, but this weekly candle has surged far beyond expectations, so 2000 is basically out of reach this month and should be reconsidered in the Q4 scenario.
For spot traders, I already suggested yesterday:
You can take profits on 10% at this level.
The earliest observation point is after the weekly candle officially closes at 8 AM next Monday.
I believe that even if there is no obvious pullback next week, it will be difficult to replicate this week's 35% surge.
So this is not about being bearish on Q3, but rather:
The uptrend is not over, but the short-term risk-reward ratio has clearly declined.
Finally, to emphasize once more:
I am only discussing ETH spot.
As for high-leverage long or short positions, they are not part of my trading system.
At this level, both longs and shorts could become fuel.$ZEC on this day +47.73%, while $BTC only +5.07% in the same period, a ninefold increase speed; 180 days +254.74%, current price 843 is a historical high. The most counterintuitive thing is that retail investors are on the opposite side: the retail account long-short ratio is 0.701, below 1 means more shorts than longs; the large holders' position ratio rose from 1.017 to 1.112, the ratio of big players to retail is 1.587 — retail investors are chasing shorts on a coin hitting a new high. The capital side matches this: the USD value of positions increased 24h +55.22%, number of contracts +8.08%, indicating real entry rather than short covering. There is no trapped position above the new high coin, the dense trading volume set is invalid, so only extension methods can be used: Fibonacci 127.2% at 1005, 161.8% at 1211; the previous month's midpoint 480 measured equal amplitude volume to 1208. Both methods converge, the first target is 1000, only after stabilizing can 1200 be discussed. But the 4h RSI is already 96, the risk of chasing highs is very high. A pullback to 603 without breaking the structure is complete; breaking 519 means the end.Recently, while playing prediction markets, I discovered a pretty interesting approach:
Starting capital: 760 XP Current: 1154.21 XP
Total: +394.21 XP (+51.9%)
The core is not to always guess "who will definitely win," but rather:
First determine the high-probability range → check the market pricing → use position sizing to cover multiple outcomes.
Take this match as an example:
Man United win 72¢ Draw 19¢ Hull City win 10¢
I judge that Man United has a high probability of not losing, so instead of just betting on Man United, I cover "Man United win + Draw."
Because my current total position is: 1154.21 XP
I will bet Man United win: 913.22 XP (79.1%)
Draw: 240.99 XP (20.9%) Hull City: 0 XP
After balancing the payouts on both sides:
Man United wins → ≈1268 XP Draw → ≈1268 XP
Hull City wins → This position goes to zero
Using about +9.9% profit margin, I make the "Man United not to lose" judgment. I don’t pursue the high odds of all-in on one side but try to find opportunities that cover two outcomes while maintaining positive returns #OKX预言家：F1荷兰站冠军预测中 Brothers, $SNDK held steady today.
Just confirmed the data, on Friday SNDK closed at $1,596.08, slightly down 0.28%, after-hours remained around $1,597-$1,598. Your reported 1598 basically matches the closing price. The panic from the sharp drop from $1,800 to $1,570 in the past two days has temporarily eased.
📉 Market analysis: Stopping the fall does not mean a reversal
Friday closed at $1,596.08, weekly decline narrowed. 1570-1600 is the first recent support zone, funds are indeed holding at this level.
But don’t get too happy too soon. Technically, RSI(14) is around 43.7, momentum is no longer oversold but hasn’t returned to a strong zone. MACD is about -25.2, short-term momentum remains weak. For a highly volatile stock, this indicator divergence means the market hasn’t fully stabilized yet.
💎 Fundamentals haven’t collapsed, long-term logic remains
SNDK’s fundamentals have not changed at all.
Morgan Stanley raised the target price from $1,100 to $1,750 in June, with the core logic that AI inference demand is reshaping the NAND market landscape. JPMorgan heavily covered this week, giving a $2,250 target price. Three reasons: NAND supply shortage, long-term contracts locking in profits, continuous product innovation.
Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, net profit $6.9 billion, gross margin already over 80%. The management said plainly in the earnings call—FY27 will have over 50% of supply locked by customers through long-term contracts, and this ratio will increase to two-thirds in FY28.
24 covering analysts, 20 rate it "Buy", average target price $2,107—over 30% higher than current price.
💰 My view: Wait for stabilization short-term, watch valuation long-term
SNDK is currently in a split state of strong fundamentals + weak technicals.
My strategy:
· For those wanting to enter: wait for 1570-1600 to truly stabilize before acting, or wait for volume recovery above 1650 to go long
· For those holding positions: if cost is above 1700, a rebound to 1650-1680 is a chance to reduce holdings
· Risk warning: if 1500-1530 support fails, next support is 1300-1310
The core contradiction of SNDK is simple—the market is debating "how many times the valuation is worth," but the company itself is proving with 80% gross margin and four to five years of long-term contracts that this is no longer a cyclical stock dependent on luck.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· Long: wait for 1570-1600 confirmation of stabilization with volume, stop loss at 1550, target 1650-1680
· Short: if rebound at 1650-1680 is weak, light short positions can be tried, stop loss 1700, target 1580-1600
· Leverage: this stock is highly volatile, control position size
· Risk warning: AI sector sentiment is very volatile, stop loss must be tight
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 Shorting $BTC now really has a low cost-performance ratio! Some say BTC's daily RSI14 is already very high; the last time it reached this level was October 2023. I mentioned at the beginning of August that the current trend looks a lot like the second half of 2023.
You can look back to that time—there was almost no decent pullback, shorting success rates were low, and the odds were not good. So I don't recommend shorting now. The October 2023 wave was mainly driven by expectations of ETF approval.
Now, it might be the expectation of a clear crypto bill playing a role. On Polymarket, the related probability jumped from 20% on August 19 to 29%, which exactly corresponds to Bitcoin's big rise over these three days. If you really want to bet on a short, I prefer to wait until around September 15.
The Senate resumes on September 14, with a preliminary vote scheduled for September 15, and the Fed's FOMC meeting on September 16. There will be quite a few variables during those days.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ On June 19th, I talked with Claude, and basically, the bottom of each $BTC cycle tends to be smaller in magnitude than the previous one. Considering the 77% retracement in the last cycle, part of which was caused by the FTX crash, this cycle's drop of around 50-60% is probably about right.
The final conclusion is: the bottom of this $BTC cycle is very likely in the $54–64k range (about 87% probability). The question is whether "$62.4k is already the bottom" or "it still needs to dip to $54–58k." The chance of breaking below $50k into a deep bear market is only about 13% (which was the mainstream market view at the time). After that, BTC's movement was somewhat painful, with a fake breakdown below 60k once, followed by a period of consolidation.
I bought some spot in June and July, and yesterday I added positions after breaking through 66k and then 70k. So far, this move has been quite comfortable.$BTC $78,670, +5.52%, surged 24% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since 2023. 189,000 people were liquidated, losing $1.459 billion, and $2.7 billion in shorts were wiped out.
1. The Treasury Department doubled long-term bond repurchases to $4B per session, the market calls it "QE Lite." Long-term yields fell, and risk assets took off across the board. In the same week, Trump met with crypto executives urging the CLARITY Act, and the SEC proposed new issuance rules to establish a safe harbor. These three positive factors combined, shorts simply couldn't hold. ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.11 billion over 4 days, and BlackRock bought 11,098 BTC in two days.
2. However, the RSI is already at 77.8, seriously overbought. $80K is a psychological barrier; whether it can hold depends on follow-up capital. Strategy holds 840,000 BTC at a cost of $75,385, with an unrealized profit of $192 million at current prices—finally breaking even. But BitMine holds 5.81 million ETH at a cost of $3,366, currently with an unrealized loss of $5.79 billion; not everyone is making money.
3. The next variable is the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act in September. If it passes, institutions will dare to enter, and $84K won't be a dream; if delayed, valuation recovery is a correction, not a trend reversal.
It feels like liquidity has arrived but the magnitude has been exaggerated by shorts. $78K-$80K is a dense resistance zone; don't FOMO chase the highs, wait for a pullback to $71.5K to confirm support before acting. The first breather after BTC's rise, the altcoin price adjustment is a process of deleveraging, not a change in direction. The real question the market is asking now is not about further gains, but whether this correction will be the fuel for a short squeeze or the signal for long liquidations. The facts confirmed in the original text are clear. Profit-taking pressure has appeared on BTC, which had been rallying for several days recently, and many altcoins including ETH, SOL, HYPE, SUI, PUMP, JUP, RAY, DOGE, WLD, and TRIA have fluctuated together. However, this does not mean the trend is over, and the core argument of the original text is that if BTC holds its key support level, capital flow could be reorganized toward altcoins showing relative strength. From the perspective of capital behavior, what matters more than the profit-taking itself is the way it manifests. Natural selling after a sharp rise is merely a process of balancing supply and demand in the spot market. However, the issue depends on how this selling pressure combines with leveraged positions in the derivatives market. Rise #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
Half-year report: Revenue 17.17 billion (+23.8%), adjusted net profit 5.156 billion (+9.5%), gross margin 69.7% (company mid-year report). Growth is shifting gears, but the money-printing machine attribute remains unchanged; earning 5.1 billion adjusted net profit in half a year, it still ranks as top cash flow in the consumer sector, with adjusted net profit margin maintaining around 30%.
Labubu's THE MONSTERS remains first with 4.45 billion, accounting for 26%, but growth rate has returned to normal; Star People reached 2.65 billion, up 580.6% year-on-year, becoming the second largest IP. Six IPs exceeded 1 billion, eleven over 100 million, the matrix thickness is unique in the industry, and reliance on a single IP has significantly decreased, validating the IP factory methodology for the second time.
China is the most stable engine: Mainland revenue 12.2 billion, +47.3%, member repurchase rate 51.6%; overseas Asia-Pacific 2.58 billion, Americas 1.89 billion, Europe 510 million still expanding. The gear shift has initially been successful, but overseas cooling and inventory turnover extending to 201 days (123 days last year) are two short-term dark clouds.
The full-year +20% guidance is very likely not to be met, management proactively positions this as a "year of operational adjustment" (China Securities Journal). The valuation of 13 times already reflects most concerns; subsequent focus will be on inventory clearance and the sustainability of Star People. No hype, let the data speak (market page $POPMART ).
$POPMART $DOGE DOGE 0.095, pulled up from 0.081 to 0.097, a 13% increase in one day. The CLARITY Act discussion supported by Trump — this news placed on DOGE might be one of the best catalysts, after all, DOGE itself has a strong "American political narrative" background. This DOGE rally is in sync with the BTC/ETH rhythm but shows significantly greater volatility, fitting the characteristics of a Meme coin. 😅
SAR=0.082 beneath, EMA21=0.080, EMA55=0.075, price is nearly 0.02 above EMA55. RSI6=97.05, RSI12=94.75, RSI24=90.28 — these three numbers together are almost identical to that ZEC wave. KDJ's J value=88.70, high-level stagnation but not yet extreme. Such an extreme overbought signal appearing on DOGE suggests the upcoming trend might resemble previous Meme coin cycles — fast rises, fast falls.
The CLARITY Act discussion supported by Trump — this logic holds. If US regulators can indeed provide a clearer cryptocurrency regulatory framework, it would be positive for the entire market. But the question is, can this bill discussion support DOGE's current price? From 0.081 to 0.097, a 20% increase took less than 24 hours. Is it pricing in regulatory expectations, or pricing in the Trump concept? If the former, there is still room to grow; if the latter, it might have already peaked.
Comment below, do you think DOGE can reach 0.10? Or is 0.097 the short-term top? My account is still empty, but I'm curious about your views. 🫡
When DOGE's RSI6=97, DOGE is actually no longer pricing in the "regulatory bill" but pricing in "how much follow-up buying the Trump concept can bring." Once the follow-up buying dries up, the price may fall faster than expected. Meme coin rises and falls don't need reasons, and neither do corrections. If you disagree, come argue, show your trades. 😅#Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, with fundraising potentially matching SpaceX
According to reports, the company is expected to publicly file its IPO documents as early as the end of August. The fundraising target is very ambitious and could match or even surpass the record set by SpaceX. SpaceX raised 75 billion in its IPO, and with the overallotment option, the total went up to 86.2 billion USD, a scale that ranks among the top globally.
Looking at its operating data, it’s truly a tale of two extremes. Q2 revenue has already exceeded 11.5 billion USD, and by the end of July, the annualized revenue is projected to reach 65 billion USD. Adjusted operating profit has turned positive, and the growth rate is indeed impressive. The commercial implementation of AI is visibly bearing fruit. But on the other hand, it’s important not to overlook that the company’s net loss is expected to approach 42 billion USD in 2025, with a still frightening burn rate.
This is why I believe the biggest market divergence point lies ahead.
Many people only see the explosive revenue and profit turning positive as good news and assign a very high valuation. But I will focus on computing power costs, historical massive losses, and the sustainability of enterprise client revenue. The biggest constraint for AI large model companies is computing power expenses. Even if revenue grows fast, once computing power costs get out of control, the stability of profitability becomes questionable.
With the upcoming IPO, capital will reprice the company. Will high growth absorb all losses, or will the huge historical losses suppress valuation? The market will provide the answer. For related targets, I won’t blindly follow the hype. The real details in the financial reports are far more important than the dazzling growth figures. Debt Trade
Bitcoin’s move above 77k, and then above 79k in the day’s coverage, was not just a crypto tape story. It arrived alongside US national debt crossing 40t, 1t added in five months, a projected 2.1t annual deficit, gold at a 14-week high, and Ray Dalio again arguing for less bond exposure and more gold with a bit of Bitcoin.
That is the cleaner read: the bid is being framed as a balance-sheet argument, not a vibes#BTC77KFlowTest #Gold4600VsBonds #SamsungPayoutUpTo80B U.S. Treasury repo doubles! Gold and $BTC directly ignited. On August 19, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the long-term Treasury repo scale was increased directly from 2 billion to 4 billion.
The 30-year yield immediately plunged, and the dollar weakened accordingly. After the money was squeezed out, gold surged directly to 4600, Bitcoin rose from 64,000 to 79,000 in three days, shorts were liquidated for 4.3 billion, and ETF net inflows exceeded 1.6 billion in four days. The logic is very clear: long-term yields go down, the dollar is under pressure, and fixed-supply assets like gold and Bitcoin rise. But personally, I think don't rush to be fully bullish.
The buying from short covering is one-time; if no new funds come in after liquidation, a pullback is likely. 80,000-82,000 is strong resistance; first watch if the 70,000-72,000 support can hold, and if it does, then talk about the next step.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $ZEC ZEC 841, pulled from 568 to 852, a 28% increase in one day. Grayscale shouted, "Zcash's privacy features may become a necessity in the AI era"—I read this sentence several times but didn't quite understand it, yet the market clearly did. When Grayscale speaks, the price follows; the power of news is indeed much more direct than technicals. 😅
SAR=617 is trampled underfoot, EMA21=614, EMA55=554, the price is nearly $300 away from EMA55. RSI6=98.97, RSI12=96.60, RSI24=92.08—these three numbers together are almost identical to that ETH wave. KDJ's J value=103.14, K=90.66, D=84.42. Such an extreme overbought signal appearing on ZEC means the next move could be similar to ETH's or completely different.
Grayscale says privacy is a necessity in the AI era—this logic itself makes sense. Data privacy issues will indeed become more prominent in the AI era, and Zcash is currently one of the most mature privacy coins. But the question is, can this logic support the current price? From 568 to 852, a 50% increase took less than 24 hours. Is this value discovery or emotional premium? I tend to think it's the latter. Rapid short-term surges are often driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. When sentiment fades, prices usually return to more reasonable levels.
Comment below, do you think ZEC can reach 1000? Or is 850 the short-term peak? My account is still empty, but I'm curious about your views. 🫡
When RSI6=98.97, the market is actually not pricing in the "value of privacy coins" but rather "how much follow-up buying Grayscale's shoutout can bring." Once the follow-up buying dries up, the price may fall faster than expected. If you disagree, come argue and show your trades. 😅The Ahr999 bottom-fishing indicator is still impressive, accurately hitting the bottom price of Bitcoin.
The few times the blue line dropped to 0.45 were basically in BTC's deep bear market zones, and the signal quality was quite good.
Of course, we can't blindly trust indicators; almost all top-escaping indicators failed in 2025.
With Bitcoin's market cap expanding and narratives changing, historical data can only serve as a reference, and forcibly sticking to old methods carries a high risk of overfitting.
But relatively speaking, whether it's AHR999, or indicators like MVRV, NUPL, Puell, bottom-fishing is more effective than top-escaping!
Bottoms often have to go through some more stable factors:
- A large number of investors losing money
- Leverage being liquidated
- Speculative demand disappearing
- Increase in the proportion of long-term holders
- Price approaching long-term cost zones
- Marginal selling pressure gradually exhausting
Tops are often hard to predict; any positive factor can cause a pump, and bubbles may last longer than you think.
Therefore, it is recommended to treat these on-chain indicators as left-side buying tools, not right-side top-escaping tools.
The so-called top-escaping magic tools from before are not that magical; this is a profound lesson I learned in the last cycle.
Stay respectful!
$BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ Bitcoin's Volatility View Yesterday (August 21)
Yesterday, BTC surged from around 73,000, reaching an intraday high of 79,571 USD. After the surge, it formed a long upper shadow and closed back near 78,300. The single-day maximum amplitude was close to 9%, with a total market liquidation of 1.486 billion USD, of which 1.196 billion was short liquidations—a typical short squeeze scenario.
Three Drivers Behind Yesterday's Rally
1. Continued Regulatory Expectation Brewing (Sentiment Trigger)
The market traded on expectations that the White House supports crypto legislation. Although the bill has not yet been formally voted on and is only a verbal statement, it greatly repaired the previously suppressed pessimism caused by the SEC crackdown, raising overall risk appetite.
2. US Treasury Liquidity Expectation Trading (Macro Underpinning)
The Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, which the market interpreted as a quasi-liquidity easing signal. Long-term US Treasury yields declined, lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset Bitcoin;
Note: This is an expectation-driven market, not actual QE. The scale of US Treasury repurchases is limited, and if Treasury yields rebound again, this layer of positive impact will quickly fade.
3. Short Squeeze Was the Most Direct Amplifier of Yesterday's Market (Core)
After weeks of prolonged sideways consolidation, the market accumulated a large amount of leveraged short positions. Once the price broke through key resistance upwards, shorts were consecutively forced to liquidate. Liquidations themselves are buy orders, which pushed prices up in a chain reaction, amplifying the upward slope.
A large part of yesterday's surge came from shorts being passively covered, not entirely from new off-exchange funds entering the market. #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元
Seeing Samsung's shareholder return plan, honestly, I feel quite moved.
Samsung Electronics' board has officially finalized the 2026 shareholder return plan, with a scale reaching up to $80 billion, setting a new record in South Korean corporate history. They continue the previous policy of returning 50% of the cumulative free cash flow from 2024 to 2026 to shareholders, including cash dividends, buybacks, and cancellations, but the final amount will depend on the full-year performance and capital expenditure needs.
Recalling that not long ago SK Hynix also announced a buyback and cancellation plan worth 40 trillion KRW, the two major Korean memory giants are riding the wave of AI memory's booming market, earning huge profits, and now choosing to return large amounts of cash to shareholders.
But here I see a very realistic contradiction.
On one hand, the market expects high dividends and buybacks to repair the long-suppressed chip stock valuations; on the other hand, HBM and advanced process technologies require continuous heavy investment. If a large amount of cash is distributed to shareholders, will the funds for future expansion and iteration be squeezed?
AI storage is currently in a high prosperity cycle. The money earned is a choice for the memory giants: either continue to invest heavily in technology R&D and expansion or return it directly to shareholders.
Currently, the stock prices of the two companies have not surged directly, which also shows the market's divergence: everyone likes high returns but worries about companies cutting future technology investments and overdrawing long-term growth.
Is this huge dividend payout the starting point for valuation repair or a signal of the peak of the boom?The core contradiction before $NVDA's earnings report next Wednesday lies in profit-taking pushing up the valuation base in advance. The market's focus is on the specific extent of earnings beating expectations and the Q3 guidance.
The market reflects a tendency to front-run and bet before the earnings release, with risk appetite transmission concentrating liquidity into leading tech stocks. The key drivers determining subsequent capital games are, in order, the level of Q3 earnings guidance, the disclosure of Rubin architecture progress, and the scale of major companies' CapEx capital expenditures.
The trigger for the bullish scenario is Q3 guidance exceeding the upper limit of institutional expectations, along with major companies confirming continued CapEx increases and Rubin chips shipping on schedule. Under this path, high-level profit-taking pressure is absorbed by new funds, and increased market risk appetite will push the stock price beyond the current turnover range. At this time, post-market trading volume should be observed; if the trading volume expands to more than 1.5 times the daily average, it will alleviate concerns about the realization of positive news and confirm a successful upward breakout.
The trigger for the bearish scenario is Q3 guidance failing to significantly exceed expectations or a moderate CapEx growth rate, inducing concentrated profit-taking sell-offs. If front-running buying before the earnings quickly exits after the release, a position stampede will compress valuation premiums. At this time, the turnover distribution after the open should be observed; if the turnover rate exceeds twice the normal level and the price falls below the dense chip area, it will change the consolidation judgment and confirm the establishment of a short-term downward liquidation trend.
The invalidation signal for the bullish scenario is that even if guidance beats expectations, the post-market high open is quickly pushed back below the dense trading area by large sell orders. The invalidation signal for the bearish scenario is that in the absence of earnings surprises, the pullback selling pressure is quickly absorbed within 15 minutes of the open and the stock recovers to a high-level sideways range.
The most critical observation variable in the next 7 days is the specific adjustment guidance on the next phase of CapEx capital expenditures from major companies during conference calls.
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元
Let's talk about the recent major moves in the South Korean semiconductor sector. After reading SK Hynix's buyback announcement, I was truly shocked.
SK Hynix officially announced a large-scale buyback, repurchasing 24.07 million shares from 8.20 to 11.19, accounting for 3.3% of the total shares. After the buyback, the shares will be directly canceled. The expected scale is about 40 trillion KRW, making it the largest buyback plan in South Korean history. This is a solid cash return to shareholders, not just for show, directly increasing the intrinsic value per share.
In contrast, Samsung is still in the expectation stage. The current dividend policy remains stable. With the market's cash flow improving driven by AI memory demand, there is speculation about Samsung launching a shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW. However, the official stance is that it is still under study, and the scale and timing have not yet been finalized.
In my view, whether the South Korean chip sector can usher in a new round of revaluation hinges on a core contradiction: AI-driven demand has boosted industry cash flow, but companies must simultaneously continue to increase capital expenditure for expansion and also enhance shareholder returns. How to balance these two will determine the future height of the sector.
Hynix has already set an example with its actions. When Samsung's plan will be implemented is also a key indicator to watch closely going forward.$ETH $SOL liquidation stop-loss, I accept it, but personally I think this surge does not mean the bull market has arrived. To expect a pullback, everyone should control their short positions.
The three major catalysts for this surge:
1. The U.S. Treasury's "implicit easing"
On August 19, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks would be increased at least twofold.
2. Concentrated release of favorable policies
On the same day, Trump met with Coinbase and other crypto industry executives, urging the Senate to advance the "CLARITY Act" bill.
3. Short squeeze triggered the rally
Bitcoin had been trading sideways between $64,000 and $66,000 for two months, with a huge accumulation of leveraged short positions in the derivatives market. Macro benefits acted as a fuse; after the price broke through key resistance levels, it triggered a chain of short liquidations, forming a positive feedback loop of "short covering → price rise → more short liquidations."
Short squeezes can bring rapid and intense price increases but cannot form a lasting price bottom like spot demand can. The buy orders generated by forced liquidations are price-insensitive—they are executed because positions are liquidated, not because traders genuinely want to establish long exposure. Once forced buying is exhausted, if there are no natural buyers (spot demand) stepping in, the price is prone to pull back.
Spot buyers usually chase gains more slowly than leveraged traders. The key going forward: whether ETF inflows can continue and whether spot trading volume can take over the baton from derivatives.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ First, let's talk about $BTC BTC, approaching 80,000, but I'm actually more cautious.
Just looked at the data, BTC hit a high of $79,555 today, currently around $78,000, with a weekly gain of over 24%, the largest single-week increase since March 2023. This rebound is superficially driven by improved macro liquidity and short squeeze, but on-chain data is sounding the alarm—long-term holders are still reducing positions, and chips built below 50,000 are taking profits in batches. Volume hasn't kept up either; it looks more like short covering plus FOMO from news rather than genuine institutional inflows. My judgment is: 80,000 is a strong psychological barrier, breaking through requires interest rate cuts to be implemented or sustained large net inflows from ETFs, otherwise a pullback to the 62,000-63,000 support level is not surprising.
ETH $ETH is even more worrisome.
ETH is now around $2,515, although it has rebounded about 7%, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate. After the Dencun upgrade, gas fees dropped, but protocol revenue collapsed by over 40%. The ETH/BTC ratio keeps hitting new lows, and whales are reducing ETH to swap for HYPE, which is a very dangerous signal. Without substantial benefits like the Pectra upgrade or a staking ETF, ETH is doomed to follow the downtrend, not the uptrend.
The most critical point: HYPE $HYPE broke through $80 to a new all-time high, drawing funds out of the market.
Use BTC as a base position, wait for ETH to reverse, and ride HYPE's volatility—don't fight the money.This round of rebound looks more like liquidity-driven risk repricing and is not enough to define a trend reversal. BTC returned to around $78,310, with ETH and SOL showing higher gains, indicating that funds are spreading from core assets to high-beta ones, rather than just making a single safe-haven trade.
I tend to place position judgments after confirmation. The 9-to-3 split in the FOMC reflects ongoing debate over the policy path. If BTC cannot sustain support at high levels, the relative strength of altcoins is likely to fade before the broader market.
Not advice, just analysis.Why the sudden surge?
· Core claim: All of Walsh's actions are "laying the groundwork for a rate cut," aiming to "create conditions for a rate cut, not a rate hike."
· Political motive: It is believed that Trump faces midterm elections and needs to improve the economy to win; for the Republicans to win, the key is for voters to feel the economy is good.
· Historical basis: "Historically, the Federal Reserve chair usually cuts rates during presidential elections," supporting the idea that this will happen again now.#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元
Samsung officially announced the largest shareholder return in South Korean history, capped at $80 billion. In Q3, it will first distribute dividends of 30 trillion KRW, with the remaining buyback and dividend plan to be finalized in January next year. Prior to this, SK Hynix also launched a massive buyback, with the two major Korean memory giants simultaneously returning a large proportion of cash flow. This is not just a dividend but an important signal for the memory cycle.
The confidence comes from the super boom in AI storage and the explosive demand for HBM, significantly improving the company's cash flow. Distributing 50% of free cash flow to shareholders means actively restraining blind capacity expansion, which helps maintain a tight supply-demand balance for memory chips and extends the current AI storage upcycle. However, there is a gap in market expectations, with some funds hoping for a larger scale, leading to a post-announcement pullback and volatility.
This transmits to risk assets in two scenarios:
① Optimistic scenario: The high memory boom logic is fully priced by the market, global tech risk appetite rises, indirectly boosting BTC sentiment. But dividend funds returning to shareholders will not directly flow into the crypto market.
② Cautious scenario: This round of boom dividends has been fully reflected; if subsequent AI capital expenditures fall short of expectations and memory prices turn downward, the semiconductor sector will face valuation cuts, which will pressure BTC to undergo a correction.
Coin Brother's practical view: This is a signal verifying industry prosperity but should not be taken as a blind buy signal. The memory cycle still has strong cyclicality, with a focus on tracking HBM orders and memory price changes. BTC's core drivers remain U.S. Treasury yields and ETF funds, 🇺🇸 Breaking: Washington is sending strong signals to Crypto consecutively within a week.
Three things are happening simultaneously:
① Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act to establish clearer regulatory boundaries for digital assets.
② CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that if congressional legislation continues to be blocked, the CFTC may still use its existing authority to advance its own crypto market regulatory rules.
③ The SEC proposed for the first time a regulatory framework specifically targeting crypto asset financing, including a proposed exemption allowing qualified projects to raise up to $75 million within 12 months, along with accompanying disclosure, financial statement, and ongoing reporting requirements.
Looking at these three things together, the significance is more than just "Trump supports Crypto again."
What truly deserves attention is: 🇺🇸 The U.S. is shifting from "how to restrict Crypto" to "how to integrate Crypto into the U.S. financial system." Legislation is progressing, regulatory agencies are proactively formulating rules,
and capital markets are beginning to see clearer compliant financing channels.
This means the U.S. crypto regulatory logic is undergoing an important transformation: from regulatory uncertainty to a structured regulatory framework. Once the rules are truly implemented, Crypto will no longer be just an "emerging asset class" but may gradually become part of the U.S. capital markets.
This is the real signal behind Washington's consecutive actions this week that deserves attention.HYPE surged to $80, and many people are still waiting for a pullback. Do you dare to get in now?
But I think the real change is not the price, but that the market is starting to reprice it.
At the end of May, it was $39, doubling in two months.
Before, it was just "a useful DEX token."
Now more and more people are beginning to see it as on-chain derivatives infrastructure.
The reason is simple:
Trading volume, protocol revenue, user stickiness—these factors are forming a moat.
On August 29, nearly 10 million tokens will unlock, which is a stress test.
Unlocking is not scary; what's scary is if no one picks them up.
If the new supply is absorbed by the market, HYPE's valuation logic may continue to rise.
What this round is really betting on is not the next price.
But rather:
Whether Hyperliquid is worth just a trading platform or a financial infrastructure?
$HYPE The short squeeze wave continues to spread, with $ZEC becoming the new target for capital rotation.
$BTC holds near $78,000, and $ETH has surpassed the $2,500 mark, with seven-day cumulative gains of 24% and 33% respectively—this is beyond what a normal rebound can explain; the short squeeze market is deepening.
Notably, ZEC surged over 12% intraday, becoming one of the leading altcoin performers. The signal is clear: capital is overflowing from BTC/ETH to high-beta assets, and the breadth of risk appetite recovery is expanding. The market is transitioning from a "large-cap stage" to an early phase of "small-cap spotlight."
However, the flip side is a simultaneous spike in volatility—high returns inevitably come with high drawdowns, especially in the altcoin sector, where short-term overheating often leads to intense shakeouts.
ETF funds continue to provide bottom support; as long as BTC does not break below $75,000, the rotation logic remains valid. Whether ZEC can continue to benefit depends on BTC's ability to hold the current range and whether capital continues to spread to mid- and small-cap assets. Hold steady! Hold steady!
$BTC $ETH $DOGE Is this rally a bull comeback or a bull trap? Don't rush to go all in.
BTC has surged from 64,000 to 78,000 in three days, with 3.3 billion liquidations in 24 hours, 90% of which were shorts. Some on the square are already shouting "a new bull market," but I'll pour cold water first.
This rise isn't purely emotional; there are real factors: the US Treasury is buying back bonds to inject liquidity, ETFs are bringing in large amounts of real money, and shorts are too crowded above 68,000, causing a stampede—more price increase leads to more liquidations. But here's the problem: short covering is a one-time buy; once it's done, it's gone, so someone has to take over afterward. Single-day ETF inflows don't count; we need to see continuous weeks of inflows; macro liquidity is only short-term, and the Fed hasn't truly cut rates yet. Price above the 200-day moving average doesn't mean it's stable; there are many false breakouts. The daily RSI is already overbought; this slope can't continue indefinitely. Chasing now is just catching the bag.
Don't chase highs in the short term. The strong resistance is between 80,000-82,000, with many trapped positions; the key support is 70,000-72,000—hold that before talking higher. If it falls below 69,000, this rally is just a big rebound, not the start of a bull market. A real bull market requires a pullback without breaking support + continuous ETF inflows + a real Fed pivot; none of these are fully confirmed now.
Those shouting bull now might be the same ones who shouted zero two months ago. The market can go up or come back down. Don't let FOMO push you to leverage up; the biggest losers in a bull market are those who chase highs with leverage. There are signals, but no solid proof yet. Wait for a pullback and save your ammo. $NVDA earnings report next Wednesday, will it "die in the light" again this time?
NVDA earnings: it's not about whether it beats expectations, but by how much.
Historical pattern — running ahead before earnings, often falling after earnings.
This time focus on Q3 guidance, Rubin progress, and major companies' CapEx.
It's not that the performance is bad, but the market expectations have already hit the ceiling.
If Wall Street wants it to fall, it will fall.
--- 🔥The privacy coin sector is collectively surging!!!
Ladies, after ZEC's recent breakout, the capital rotation in the privacy coin sector has clearly accelerated! 🚀
$ZEC, as the leader in the privacy track, keeps breaking new highs, with market attention and capital heat significantly increasing. When the leader strengthens first, capital often starts looking for other coins in the same sector.
Therefore, $DASH and $ZEN have simultaneously shown obvious rallies, which is a typical sector rotation. Experienced players know that every time ZEC rises, it drives these two along.
Currently, it is not recommended to chase the highs; first, watch if capital continues to flow in, and wait for a pullback to stabilize before looking for entry points to go long!
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 $SNDK repeatedly tests the $1780-1830 resistance zone, with a $93.9 billion locked-price long-term contract pushing the stock price to a critical point of spot premium and profit elasticity trade-off.
The market price is constrained by the upper boundary of the high-level oscillation range, with bulls and bears intensively exchanging positions at the key resistance band, waiting for volume to indicate the direction.
The core driver of valuation divergence lies in the quarterly contract pricing of NAND flash memory. Large locked-price orders weaken excess elasticity when spot prices rise and provide income support when spot prices fall.
The rhythm of spot price changes directly determines capital's opportunity cost assessment and valuation premium or discount for fixed-price agreements.
A strengthening path requires spot prices to maintain a quarterly upward trend, accompanied by increased buying volume breaking through $1830 to open space toward $2354. If volume shrinks on the breakout, it indicates momentum exhaustion.
A weakening path begins when chip prices flatten or turn downward. Once prices break below the $1330-1350 support, the rebound structure ends; further falling below $1180-1200 confirms a mid-term downtrend.
When quarterly contract prices stop rising and start falling, if high-margin businesses cannot hedge the opportunity cost brought by locked prices, the current valuation framework will face downward revision.
The most important variables to track in the next 7 days are the latest trend of NAND chip quarterly contract prices and the support strength in the $1330-1350 range.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC $DOGE gained +17.10% that day, while $BTC only gained +5.34% in the same period, more than three times, and +37.62% over 7 days. First, let's talk about the biggest difference from yesterday: when I wrote about it yesterday, the number of positions held decreased by -0.49%, indicating that the price push was due to bears giving up rather than new money; today the structure has reversed, with large holders' positions increasing from 3.414 to 4.291, and the ratio of market makers to retail investors at 1.282, showing that large holders are really adding long positions. The fee rate is still only 0.010%, leverage hasn't accumulated, and the main force is spot and large holder positions. The upper target is cross-verified by three methods: the recent 90-day high at the previous high step of 0.1039, then up to 0.112; the dense trading zone from 0.105 to 0.110 has accumulated over 700 million USD, which is the most solid trapped position; and the Fibonacci 23.6% level at 0.1241. These three converge, making the first target between 0.104 and 0.112, and only after stabilizing there can we talk about 0.124. But the 4-hour RSI is already at 94, chasing highs at this position is just carrying the coffin for others; a pullback to 0.0864 without breaking is a good position. Breaking below 0.0817 means this wave is over.It feels so good, so satisfying!!
Market sentiment is really strong. My OKB also saw an epic surge. Bitcoin surged to around 80,000, Ethereum jumped straight to 2500, and the previously silent group chat has been fully revived these past couple of days. It doesn't seem appropriate to pour cold water on things at this point, but I still want to share my own judgment
I think this rally is more like a return to Bitcoin's valuation. Bitcoin fell from 126,000 last October, partly due to the 1011 black swan and partly because U.S. stocks kept draining its assets. Now that the Treasury Department has announced a buyback of long-term bonds and Becent says it will increase scale, long-term yields have fallen, and the market is revaluating risk assets—and Bitcoin and gold are the most direct resistance to a weaker dollar and inflation
There are two reasons to stay cautious:
1⃣ The positive factors behind this rally aren't strong enough, as mentioned in previous tweets. Moreover, Bitcoin ETFs saw total inflows exceeding 1.6 billion this week, the best weekly performance since 2026; Ethereum ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of 220 million on August 20, also the best day of the year. The strong pulling capital behind it is hard to convince that it was just Wall Street
2⃣ Cyclical laws. In the past, the period from the peak of a bull market to the bottom of a bear market usually took about a year; we have only passed 10 months from last October until now; Moreover, the pullback in this round is much smaller than in the previous and previous rounds.