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Weekend hindsight: two sets of logic discussed with friends these days:
1. Long-term bonds essentially compete with AI companies issuing bonds for a pool of long-term capital. Long bonds keep rising because there are always sellers of long bonds. The usual outcome is the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to release capital. But at this sensitive timing, the Fed's rate cut environment is unclear, and Trump wants to secure the midterm elections, so fiscal policy is chosen over monetary policy. BTC had a debt transformation narrative at the start of the campaign, and stablecoin companies are the best buyers of bonds. A shadow banking plus leverage debt transformation logic has driven institutional buyers.
2. Exchange open interest is too high, waiting for direction. The macro situation is unfavorable (yen rate hikes tightening liquidity + unclear Fed stance), so a batch of hot money from semiconductors (hedge funds) will come to play the high-to-low position swap game. With fuel + capital + big money in the circle pushing it along, futures caused ETH to make the first wave.
It feels like last April when ETH dropped to 1300 and then exploded upwards; back then it was 2900-2500, followed by the DAT narrative. This year's potential narrative is the Clarity Act; not sure if it can continue.This wave of rise feels "a bit different"
We know that the sudden violent surge of $BTC this time caused a record-breaking scale of futures liquidations, but the open interest (OI) of contracts is simultaneously decreasing.
OI drops while price rises, indicating that overall positions are being closed. Short stop-losses or liquidations require buying to close positions, and this buying pressure also fuels the price increase.
Buying to close can only eliminate existing positions; it cannot create new net exposure, so each buy reduces OI by one.
In other words, this market move is about clearing past positions, not betting on the future.
Its energy ceiling is the total amount of short positions in the market. Once shorts are cleared, this force disappears.
If the rise were purely driven by liquidations, the typical pattern would be a wick: a quick spike up followed by a rapid fall, leaving a long upper shadow.
But this time, after the price was pushed up, it held, indicating that after the liquidation wave subsided, other funds continued to buy, and this "other funds" come from the spot market.
Additionally, there is a causality sequence issue here.
The premise for short liquidations is that the price first rises to their forced liquidation level, so who was the initial driving force?
If it were contract longs leading, opening new long positions, OI would rise, funding rates would increase, and prices would be pushed by leveraged funds, triggering short liquidations.
In that case, we would see OI rising. But in fact, this time OI has been declining almost all along, showing no sign of large-scale new leveraged funds entering.
So, let's look at the spot market.
Exchange spot relative volume (SRV, indicating current trading activity relative to recent average levels) clearly reflects a fact:
From 8/19 to 8/20, SRV reached as high as 2.94, meaning current volume is 3 times the average volume of the past 30 days.
Looking at nearly two years of data, on February 5 and June 5 there were similar SRV increases, but those were volume surges during downtrends, representing panic selling.
Besides those, comparable data mostly occurred during bull markets. For example, the SRV surge on 2024.11.6 happened just before the main bull run started.
Therefore, this rebound (which we temporarily consider a rebound) is different from the rebounds to 96,000 in January and 82,000 in May.
The former was mainly driven by leverage, while the latter showed spot demand.
-------------------------------------------
The above is just a logical explanation.
It does not mean we can conclude a trend reversal based on this.
But spot demand during a rebound is a potential sign, the first since entering the bear market.
Including previously shared signals like price breaking through STH-RP; seller exhaustion index entering extreme zones; these can be seen as corroboration.
Markets develop step by step, not predicted outright.
Only when more and more evidence points to the same conclusion does certainty increase;
Of course, by then the price may also be higher.LIT might be one of the most overlooked tokens on my ETH watchlist. 👀
And no, I’m not saying Lighter has to become the next Hyperliquid.
The setup is much simpler — the valuation gap looks hard to ignore.
Lighter is already doing nearly 90% of Aster’s weekly perp volume, yet its market cap is only about one-third of Aster’s.
Right now:
🔹 Lighter: $674M market cap
• $9.95B weekly perp volume
• $1.07B open interest
• $1.11M weekly fees
🔹 Aster: $1.97B market cap
#DailyOrbit Stayed up most of last night watching $HYPE
It kept grinding back and forth between 78 and 81 at a high level
Neither going up nor down, completely directionless
Stayed up until late night with no movement, couldn't hold on and went to sleep
Woke up to a violent surge, breaking the previous high of 82.68
Missing this move really hurts😭
First, stay calm and review after missing out. Many mistakenly think this rally is purely driven by positive US news
Actually, the positive news is just a sentiment booster; the real core logic has three points:
PURR continuous buying expectation (market foundation)
The listed company keeps buying and hoarding HYPE, and off-exchange incremental funds are expected to keep coming in, which is the main reason for this round of major rise
Late-night high-level sideways consolidation = typical short squeeze buildup
No overnight dump, very weak spot selling pressure
Constantly wearing down the patience of night-owl retail traders, with a large pile of short positions stacked above
Once the previous high is broken, shorts will cut losses and liquidate en masse
Violently pushed up by market buy orders, triggering an accelerated rally
US regulatory friendliness expectation (sentiment booster)
Overall crypto risk appetite is warming up, supporting the rally, but not the fundamental cause of the rise
Currently, all timeframes are overbought
15 min / 1H / 4H RSI all synchronously high
Chasing longs now has a poor risk-reward ratio
The worst thing after missing out is FOMO chasing the top
After the acceleration phase, the pullback will also be very fierce
Subsequent practical strategy
Long positions:
Set defense at 77.5–78
Hold if defended, cut positions immediately if volume-driven break below, no room for hesitation
No position, do not chase highs:
Wait for a pullback to 74–75 support to see if it holds
Only consider shorting after a valid breakdown Gold is really getting stronger in this wave.
The latest COMEX gold has closed near $4624, up about 5.6% this week, marking the third consecutive week of gains, with a cumulative increase of over 14% in the past three weeks.
What’s most notable about this rally is that U.S. Treasury yields were originally high, which would normally suppress gold, but the market is instead actively buying gold due to U.S. debt and fiscal risks. Additionally, with the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakens, and funds are flowing back into scarce assets like gold and BTC.
So after gold broke through 4600, I remain bullish.
Next, I’m watching 4650; once it truly breaks through,
my target of 4700 is getting closer.
$XAU $XAUT $XAG #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 22)
Shorts monopolized and kept crushing, but after extreme multiples in 4 hours, a continuous avalanche occurred. The total liquidation in 24 hours was only $37,700, a typical low-liquidity invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $2,257.88 $20.09 $2,237.79
4 hours $19,900 $20.38 $19,900
12 hours $34,400 $1,630.58 $32,800
24 hours $37,700 $3,397.59 $34,300
In 1 hour, shorts crushed with 111x leverage, volume $2,200; in 4 hours, short leverage soared to an extreme 976x, volume rose to $19,900; in 12 hours, short leverage collapsed to 20x, volume rose to $32,800; in 24 hours, short leverage further dropped to 10x, liquidation $34,300 vs. longs $3,400, total liquidation only $37,700. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 91% of the 24-hour total, showing high concentration. Short leverage continuously collapsed from the extreme 976x to 10x, the short squeeze momentum sharply exhausted, but the absolute volume is very small (less than $40,000), a typical low-liquidity invalid market without directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; this coin has extremely poor liquidity and is not suitable as a trading reference.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 22
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: capital is flowing simultaneously into three different tracks — Bitcoin's short squeeze faces relay tests, gold's safe-haven logic challenges bonds' status, and Samsung's record dividend announces the large-scale shareholder returns from AI dividends.
₿ BTC breaks $75,000: Who will take over after the short squeeze?
On August 21, Bitcoin strongly broke through $75,000, reaching as high as $75,700, with a weekly gain of about 18%. In the past 24 hours, over $3 billion in leveraged positions in the crypto market were liquidated.
However, this rally is still mainly driven by short covering; new leveraged long funds have not yet entered on a large scale. Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest has not significantly rebounded. LO:TECH research director pointed out, "Currently, no investors are willing to pay a significant premium to go long."
Positive signals appeared in ETFs: on August 19, a single-day net inflow of about $517 million, a three-and-a-half-month high. On August 20, a further net inflow of $606 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $503 million. But Glassnode data shows ETF investors' average holding cost is about $82,465, still overall at a floating loss.
After the short squeeze, the real test is whether spot buying can take over.
🥇 Gold breaks $4600: Bonds' safe-haven status is being challenged
On August 21, spot gold rose above $4600/oz, a new high since May 15. Since August, it has gained over 13%, climbing steadily from below $4100. COMEX gold futures rose 5.56% weekly, closing at $4624.10.
The driver of this rally is the resurgence of "currency devaluation trades": the US Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases, triggering deep market concerns about fiscal conditions, and the US dollar index fell below 99. Saxo Bank noted: "Merely trying to suppress borrowing costs without addressing fundamental fiscal imbalances may exacerbate market concerns about currency devaluation."
UBS expects gold prices to rise to $5400/oz in the next 12 months. As the 30-year US Treasury yield surpasses 5.3% and gold breaks $4600, the market is signaling that bonds are no longer the only safe haven.
🏦 Samsung's up to $80 billion shareholder returns: The "money-spreading moment" of AI dividends
On August 21, Samsung Electronics officially approved the 2026 shareholder return plan, expecting to return 90 to 110 trillion KRW (about $65 to $80 billion) to shareholders, setting a record in Korean corporate history. About 30 trillion KRW cash dividends will be distributed in Q3.
This "sky-high check" is backed by the AI storage chip super cycle: Q2 revenue was 171.5 trillion KRW, operating profit 89.49 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 1814%.
Two days earlier, SK Hynix announced a 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation plan. Within just one week, the two storage giants committed to returning 150 trillion KRW (about $108.6 billion). Money earned from AI is being returned to shareholders at an unprecedented speed.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: after Bitcoin's $3.3 billion short squeeze, whether spot buying can take over is key; gold breaking $4600 challenges bonds' safe-haven status; Samsung's $80 billion shareholder returns announce large-scale realization of AI dividends. CORE contract liquidation throughout the day was less than $40,000, a low-liquidity invalid market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes. When the short squeeze recedes, gold rises, and dividends land simultaneously — capital is seeking new pricing anchors in three tracks at once. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 $BTC has surged from 57,800 all the way up to around 79,000 USD, with a weekly increase of over 20%, completely reversing the overall market sentiment.
And this time it's not just short liquidations.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of 606 million USD on Thursday, with a cumulative total of 1.61 billion USD this week. Meanwhile, over 4 billion USD worth of crypto short positions have been liquidated in the past few days. Spot funds and short squeezes together have pushed the market up.
So the most important thing now is to see if the capital inflow can continue.
As long as the ETF continues to flow in and BTC holds the 75,000 to 78,000 range, I think there is still a chance to challenge 80,000 or even higher later on.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $BTC $OKB experienced a surge followed by a decline due to overlapping news and on-chain consumption. The core contradiction lies in the passive deflation expectation caused by the hard cap of 21 million tokens, and the risk of high-level chip turnover after short-term profit-taking accumulation.
The market shows characteristics of chip locking. Since the contract removed the minting authority and the total supply is fixed at 21 million tokens, the supply side lacks new selling pressure. Recently, ecological buying has been arranged in advance, pushing the price close to the integer threshold, but the rapid short-term rally has accumulated some profit-taking exit demand.
In terms of the transmission path of driving factors, X Layer dominates with Gas burning generated by about 80% of the full-chain tokenized US stock trading volume, directly determining the deflation rate. Next is the strategic cooperation between BiFinance and XPower Finance, guiding the entry of real assets and tokenized US stock funds, which brings staking demand. Then there are over 1,960 AI intelligent agents consuming high-frequency settlements.
The trigger condition for the bullish scenario is the continuous expansion of on-chain settlement volume of xStocks and RWA, driving the passive Gas burn rate beyond expectations. Under this path, it is necessary to observe whether the staking lock-up volume of Exchange OS building the trading market is steadily increasing. If on-chain US stock trading activity declines, the bullish projection will immediately fail.
The trigger condition for the bearish scenario is the concentrated outflow of short-term profit-taking at high levels, causing a technical pullback. At this time, it is necessary to observe the willingness of bulls to place orders after breaking key support and the degree of decline in on-chain interaction frequency. If 80% of the tokenized US stock trading share loosens, the space for seeking liquidity on the downside will expand.
When the actual on-chain trading volume and ecological construction progress fall short of expectations, relying solely on the deflation mechanism cannot fully offset the selling pressure from profit-taking.
The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the changes in the number of xStocks transaction settlements and staking lock-up volume on the X Layer chain.
#美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧$BTC The real logic behind this round of crypto rally: US Treasury liquidity shift + long-term stablecoin cycle
Crypto assets are highly sensitive risk assets, and their trends fully follow market liquidity. When liquidity is loose, gains crush traditional stocks and gold; when liquidity tightens, declines are also the most severe, with significant corrections being the norm.
Recently, the market has been steadily warming up. On the surface, this looks like positive sentiment, but the real core is the marginal liquidity easing brought by the US long-term bond repurchase.
The US has recently accelerated repurchasing long-term Treasuries by issuing short-term Treasuries to replace and repurchase long-term bonds.
Previously, the biggest market pressure was the continuously rising long-term bond yields. When risk-free Treasuries can reliably offer 5%+ yields, a large amount of capital will directly withdraw from risk markets, choosing to sit back and collect interest, continuously suppressing crypto prices.
Most people only understand the short-term market but overlook the hidden long-term underlying logic in crypto: the stablecoin cycle.
Stablecoin institutions, due to compliance requirements, must hold large amounts of short-term Treasuries as reserves. Today, stablecoins are the fastest-growing buyers of US short-term debt, and their purchasing power is rigid and continuous.
This is also the deep reason why the US strongly supports stablecoins: a continuous influx of external funds passively absorbing US debt over the long term. $ETH
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 $BTC surged 24% in three days, is this time really different?
BTC rallied from 64100 to 79500, rising over 20% in three days, with ETH also strengthening. On the surface, it looks like a short squeeze, but this time it’s not entirely the same: U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, regulatory expectations have improved, and ETF funds are flowing back, providing real market support for the rally.
Especially with ETF funds, if net inflows can continue, then this rally is not just driven by short liquidations but is starting to see institutional participation.
However, we can’t rush to define a new bull market yet. After consecutive sharp rises, the mechanical buying from the short squeeze will gradually fade, and what truly determines the subsequent height is whether spot funds can continue to enter the market.
I will focus on three key levels next:
Whether 72000–75000 can hold;
Whether ETFs continue to maintain net inflows;
Whether BTC can rebound with increased volume after a pullback.
If the breakout zone becomes new support, 79500 might just be a midpoint; but if it quickly falls back below 72000 after the surge, we need to be cautious that this short squeeze rally is entering a realization phase.
So this time it’s indeed more solid than a pure sentiment-driven pump, but "funds flowing back" does not equal "bull market confirmation."
The best approach now is not to guess the top but to wait for the first pullback to verify if the breakout is valid. The next step is to closely watch the support conversion around 75000.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 $OKB OKB leads the charge surging to 119U🔥 What happened to the promised 108 previous high? It didn’t even blink.
The prediction from a few days ago has now perfectly come true...
Previously, it was "testing the 108 previous high,"
but now the market has slapped 119 right on the face.
In 24h, it pushed from around 106 all the way to 119. Among platform tokens, it’s the only one daring to independently lead the rally during BTC’s consolidation; even BNB can only follow behind gathering dust.
Why is it OKB and not other platform tokens going crazy at the 119 level?
It’s not manipulation, it’s three fires burning together:
Chip locked tight: 21 million total supply + 65.25 million historical buybacks burned into the black hole. With a shallow pool meeting incremental funds, even a small buy order can trigger an explosion.
X Layer is truly in use: USDC/CCTP native integration, xStocks on-chain US stocks, AI Agent settlement all burn OKB as Gas, no longer just a "fee discount card."
Wall Street endorsement repeated: ICE’s strategic investment in OKX, expected US IPO, the market is revaluing OKB from a CEX token to "small BTC + execution layer fuel." $OKB $OKB OKB leads the charge to 119U🔥 What happened to the promised 108 previous high? It didn’t even blink.
The prediction from a few days ago has now perfectly come true...
Previously, it was "testing the 108 previous high,"
but now the market has slapped 119 dollars right on the face.
In 24h, it pushed from around 106 all the way to 119. Among platform tokens, it’s the only one daring to independently lead the rise during BTC’s consolidation; even BNB can only follow behind gathering dust.
Why is it OKB and not other platform tokens going crazy at the 119 level?
It’s not manipulation, it’s three fires burning together:
Chip locked tight: total supply of 21 million + 65.25 million historical buybacks burned into the black hole. With a shallow pool meeting incremental funds, even a small buy order can cause an explosion.
X Layer is really in use: native integration of USDC/CCTP, xStocks on-chain US stocks, AI Agent settlement all burn OKB as Gas, no longer just a "fee discount card."
Wall Street endorsement repeated: ICE’s strategic investment in OKX, expected US IPO, the market is revaluing OKB from a CEX token to "small BTC + execution layer fuel." Trump is a businessman
It's not entirely that what Trump says is false, but it means the "statement" itself as a signal source is not neutral—those who shout bullish are partly vested interests.
You can't tell if this sentence is a "presidential policy judgment" or a "businessman calling for his own assets."
The ultimate question is very simple:
When the president shouts bullish on $BTC at the "statement level," what are his family's interests in the crypto circle?
Obviously:
Whether the CLARITY Act (stablecoin/market structure bill) can pass
Directly determines the compliance status of $USD1 and whether the $WLFI bank license can convert to $BTC This week in the crypto world really feels like "going back to square one overnight." On Monday, Bitcoin was still hovering around 64,000, but by Friday it had surged close to 80,000, reaching a high of about 79,500. Ethereum jumped directly from 1,900 to around 2,500. Even more dramatic was XRP, which rose more than 30% in just a few days, even exceeding 40% at one point. The entire market quickly shifted from caution to greed, with the fear and greed index shooting up from a low level to above 70. Let's start with some of the hottest coins right now. Bitcoin ($BTC) remains the absolute leader. It rose just over 20% this week, marking the strongest week in the past two to three years. The core drivers are clear: the U.S. Treasury increased long-term bond repurchases, easing liquidity; shorts were massively liquidated, reportedly with over 3 to 4 billion dollars in liquidations across the network, with shorts making up the majority; plus meetings between the White House and crypto executives, and continuous inflows into ETFs. Technically, it finally broke out of the box range it had been stuck in for months and stood above key moving averages. In the short term, as long as it holds above 75,000, there is still room to rise; but the rapid increase means a weekend pullback is also normal. Ethereum ($ETH) actually had an even stronger weekly gain than Bitcoin, about 25%-30%, jumping from 1,900 straight to 2,400-2,500. It didn't have any particularly big independent positive news, mostly catching up with the broader market, plus clear inflows into ETFs and significant short liquidations. Ethereum is naturally more volatile than Bitcoin, with more exaggerated rises and faster drops. It has now entered a short-term overbought state, so holders might want to watch closely This sudden surge in $ETH appears to be driven by news, but the underlying logic is a short squeeze triggered by liquidity drying up. On-chain data shows that in the past 4 hours, the funding rate for Ethereum perpetual contracts spiked to over 40% annualized, while open interest dropped sharply by 12%. This means a large number of high-positioned short positions are being systematically crushed. One short position of about 12,000 ETH was liquidated near $2815, directly becoming the final spark that pushed the price above $2850. What's more interesting is that the whales' actions in the spot market are not just one-sided buying; they have simultaneously set heavy ice walls on both the thin order book's upper and lower ends. After the upper sell wall was broken, it was quickly withdrawn and rebuilt, while the lower side steadily accumulated—this is not simple chasing of a rally but a carefully orchestrated hunting game. The target is not retail traders but medium-sized institutional shorts with leverage over 5x. After the price broke through the key neckline, quant funds' programmed buy orders were triggered, further accelerating the rebound slope. Essentially, this move is an extreme release after a period of narrowing volatility. The prior three-week triangle consolidation allowed both bulls and bears to accumulate positions heavily within a narrow range; once the direction became clear, the opposing side became fuel. For ordinary participants, the greatest danger now is not missing out but misjudging the rhythm. In an environment with insufficient liquidity depth, the slippage cost of chasing highs and selling lows may far exceed the expected volatility range. Those seemingly certain breakouts are often accompanied by violent fakeouts. The market is not an ATM but a manifestation of cognition. After reviewing the transaction records from the past two days, I suddenly fell silent. Not because of how much I lost. But because I finally saw one thing clearly: my biggest enemy right now is not the market. It's myself after making a profit. Over the past two days, I did make money. $BTC BTC had gains of +451.49U and +112.43U.
I also caught moves in ENA, ETC, BEAT, PEPE. Some trades had the right direction.
Some positions indeed made profits. So I used to think what I lacked was maybe experience, better entries, more accurate judgments. But after going through all the transaction records from start to finish, I realized that’s not the case at all. The real problem is: I can make profits, but I can’t hold onto them. The most ironic thing is, right after making a profit, I could immediately lose a chunk like $BTC BTC -580.63U. Also -132U, -80U. ETC is the same. Gains of +41U, +11U upfront. Then immediately: -144U.
-40U.
-19U.
-14U. BICO also had a loss of -136U. Looking at each trade one by one, I can always find a reason for myself. “It should rebound here.” “The structure isn’t broken yet.” “Wait a bit longer.” “That last trade was just a spike.” “I’ll do one more and get back.” Each trade alone seems logical. But if you look at a day’s trades in sequence, the logic disappears. All that’s left is a veryWhy did $BTC cryptocurrency surge dramatically?
Cryptocurrency represents a risk asset, most affected by liquidity — the more money in the market, the more it surges. Gains in gold or stocks are nothing compared to this. But when money dries up, it also crashes the hardest; a 90% correction is very normal.
In the past two days, cryptocurrencies have risen sharply. Why? Setting aside all the good words from Trump and the upcoming accelerated buyback of long-term US debt — meaning the Treasury will increase buybacks of long-term US bonds. Where does the money for this buyback come from? By issuing short-term US debt, essentially borrowing new short-term funds to repay more long-term debt.
What is the principle behind this? Why does it have such a big impact on risk assets, especially cryptocurrencies?
Everyone knows that recently the yield on long-term US bonds has been rising, which is a headache for the US. Higher yields mean the government must offer higher yields on new debt issuance, or else auctions fail, increasing interest burden. Meanwhile, risk assets suffer greatly. Think about it: if someone promises a steady 5.3% or even 5.5% interest annually for decades, who would buy risk assets? This is like a bloodsucker.
So now the Treasury says it will accelerate buybacks of these long bonds. What does this mean? Buyer strength is increasing, so yields fall. Why? As we said before, if everyone sells US bonds and no one wants them, bond prices fall, which causes actual yields to rise — for example, if I have a $100 IOU that pays $105 in a year, but I urgently sell it for $98, the buyer who pays $98 will still get $105 at maturity, so the yield is actually more than 5%. The more people sell, the higher the actual yield; the more people buy, the lower the actual yield.
And what does a lower actual yield affect? If no one finds the yield attractive, money flows out and returns to risk assets. Cryptocurrencies, being the most typical risk assets with the highest price sensitivity, naturally rise the most.
But many may overlook a long-term cycle embedded in cryptocurrencies — the stablecoin cycle.
Currently, although the main buyers of short-term debt are still money market funds, the fastest-growing buyers are stablecoin companies. Why? They have no choice. As soon as you move fiat onto the blockchain, they must buy short-term US debt, as legally required. Although this scale is not yet large (though already a medium-sized buyer), with the popularization of on-chain finance and the continuous integration of RWA with the traditional world, it is destined to grow. In this process, US short-term debt will have increasingly strong support because its purchase is rigid. Therefore, in the long run, stablecoin companies are likely to be the largest buyers in the future market — this is the core reason why the US is vigorously developing stablecoins.
In the future, scenarios supporting stablecoin payments will increase. On-chain finance efficiency already outperforms current financial institutions, and crypto investors rarely convert back to fiat. Money going in is either invested or spent, so there is no need to convert back to fiat. This means their long-term sustained purchasing power for short-term debt, after infrastructure is well established, will be a more stable support and will not experience large-scale sell-offs anytime. As the fiat world accelerates migration to the blockchain world, its scale will only grow, solving the US's biggest problem. It no longer needs to rely on others' goodwill or political compromises; it only needs to operate with corporate logic, building the blockchain world better and better, continuously attracting ordinary people worldwide to voluntarily move their fiat onto the blockchain.
Isn't this the logic?
In the short term, US bonds have support, yields fall, crypto surges, attracting more money onto the chain, US bonds are bought again, causing crypto to surge again — it's a cycle, but only short-term, not infinite. In the long term, the continuous expansion of stablecoin scale and support for the on-chain world is lasting and huge. We all know that for the crypto market to rise, new money must flow in, and the net inflow of fiat money into the blockchain is a long-term structural trend, unaffected by whether Bitcoin is currently in a bull or bear market.
This is not decided by anyone but is destined from the moment blockchain was born. It's just a matter of time because its genes and structure are superior to traditional financial systems. That's it. Ethereum $ETH also took off this week
In the past few days, Ethereum's gains have actually been a bit stronger than Bitcoin's.
On Monday, it was hovering around $1900, and by Friday it had surged to around $2500, reaching a high of over $2540. It rose about 25%-30% this week, very fast. It jumped directly from 1900 to above 2400, feeling like a spring that had been compressed suddenly snapping back.
The main reason is still following the overall market. The U.S. Treasury has increased long-term bond repurchases, liquidity is loose, and risk assets have collectively benefited. Shorts have also been massively liquidated, and the liquidation amount on Ethereum's side is not small. Additionally, there has been a clear inflow of funds into spot ETH ETFs these days, with institutional buyers active. Plus, Bitcoin moved first, and as a high-beta asset, Ethereum's rise tends to be more exaggerated.
From an ordinary person's perspective, this wave of Ethereum is more "trend-following + sentiment" than Bitcoin. It doesn't have particularly strong independent positive factors; it's more of a catch-up rally after market risk appetite has improved. Ethereum was relatively weak in the past few months, and expectations were low, so once sentiment turns positive, rapid recovery like this easily occurs.
However, rapid gains also mean risk. It has already entered an overbought zone in the short term, liquidity thins out over the weekend, and volatility may increase. If it can hold steady at 2300-2400 and gradually absorb selling pressure, there is still room to go up; if it falls back quickly, don't be too surprised.
My own feeling is: in such a rapid rally, chasing highs is easy to get trapped. The truly comfortable position is often after a pullback. Those holding positions now can consider watching more closely,Trump issued another coin?
Trump's media TMTG this time launched a Token, which is a non-transferable on-chain electronic coupon given to DJT US stock shareholders.
▶️ Completely non-transferable
The official rules are very strict: non-transferable, not listed on exchanges, cannot be liquidated, and the secondary market cannot price it at all.
▶️ No equity whatsoever
No shares or dividends are given; it is purely for redeeming exclusive discounts or benefits on platforms like Truth Social.
🤔 Why go through the trouble of putting it on-chain?
▶️ To expose short sellers on-chain
TMTG's CEO has always hated naked short selling in US stocks. This coin issuance stipulates that only the true ultimate beneficial shareholders can receive it; short sellers borrowing stocks cannot get it. Issuing the coin is equivalent to conducting a disguised on-chain spot check on US stock short sellers.
▶️ Risk-free way to attract Web3 users
Without violating the SEC's unregistered securities rules, it converts millions of US retail shareholders directly into Web3 wallet users, laying the foundation for their future financial ecosystem.
🤔 Forecast for the next trend
▶️ Speculators will completely leave
With no liquidity, this thing cannot be speculated on at all.
▶️ Closed-loop circulation within the ecosystem
In the future, it is very likely that exchanges will be opened within TMTG, allowing it to be used to offset video subscriptions or platform advertising fees.
▶️ US Meme stocks will follow suit
This combination of US stocks plus on-chain badges is very likely to be imitated by other US stock companies with a high proportion of retail investors, becoming a new type of fan engagement tool.
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC Bitcoin $BTC took off directly this week
The recent Bitcoin market, to be honest, has somewhat exceeded many people's expectations
On Monday, it was still hovering around 64,000, and by Friday it had surged close to 80,000, reaching a high of about 79,500. It rose nearly 20% this week, the strongest week in nearly three years. From 64,000 straight up to around 78,000, the speed was indeed fast.
Why did it suddenly rise so much? Mainly because the macro environment changed. The U.S. Treasury announced it would increase long-term bond repurchases, simply put, injecting more liquidity into the market, causing long bond yields to fall, benefiting risk assets. Additionally, shorts were massively liquidated; reportedly, tens of billions of dollars in short positions were blown up in recent days, creating a clear short squeeze. ETFs also saw continuous inflows, and institutional investors have not fully withdrawn.
From an ordinary person's perspective, this wave looks more like a "liquidity + sentiment" resonance result. In the past few months, it had been grinding between 60,000 and 66,000, with a cautious mindset. Suddenly, a macro positive combined with short liquidations led to a direct breakout upward. The rapid rise indicates a significant accumulation of short positions in the market, and once the direction turns, such quick rebounds are easy to occur.
However, we should also stay calm. Although the short-term momentum is strong, the price is already far from the lows of a few days ago, and short-term overbought signals are quite obvious. Liquidity usually thins over the weekend, which may increase volatility. If it can hold above 75,000 and gradually digest selling pressure, the upward space will still open; if it falls back quickly, don't be too surprised, after all, it rose too fast. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $XAU From different time perspectives, the driving factors of gold prices vary. In the long term, the core logic of gold price movement lies in its "ultimate payment" characteristic. Against the backdrop of ongoing global geopolitical risks and continuous doubts about the US dollar's credit, gold forms a certain substitution effect against the dollar. Therefore, from a long-cycle perspective, gold prices still have room to rise. In the medium term, the logic of gold price movement mainly stems from changes in global monetary policy. Currently, the Federal Reserve is at the switching point between a rate-cutting cycle and a rate-hiking cycle. Whether to take rate hikes still requires further guidance from US macroeconomic data, so the medium-term adjustment of gold prices is not yet over. In the short term, the current gold market is reflecting the impact of the US long-term Treasury liquidity support policy, with a fast market rhythm, requiring vigilance about its sustainability. After bottoming in July and rebounding in August, gold prices have broken the downward trendline pressure since late January, and the market has gradually shifted from a previous downtrend to a consolidation pattern. In the short term, the prospect of US-Iran conflict remains an important variable affecting the gold market. Currently, there are significant differences in demands between the two sides, and gold prices may fluctuate repeatedly with changes in the situation. If the conflict escalates, and the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a "hawkish" stance, or unexpectedly raises rates amid rising inflation data and market doubts about "verbal rate cuts" and "hawkish doves," gold prices may retest the previous low support area. For the gold market to return to an upward trend, it may require US economic risks to progress We need to understand that Polymarket is not some Twitter influencer who makes predictions with just words; behind every probability here, there is real, hard cash.
1. An 81% probability is almost a sure thing in financial forecasting. This means the wealthiest and most aggressive players in the market already see $80,000 as the guaranteed minimum spending for this month.
2. A 49% probability for $82,500 is basically a coin toss; and a 27% probability for $85,000. This tells us: people think surpassing 80k is highly likely, but to surge ahead to 85k in the remaining 9 days would require a miracle or Elon Musk tweeting twice more.
Here’s the most interesting part: the contract shows a 50% probability that BTC will drop below $75,000.
See, this is the charm (or the frustration) of the crypto world. On one hand, 81% believe it can reach 80k, while on the other, there’s a 50% chance it will first fall below 75k. Translated into plain language: "We want to go to Antarctica, but on the way, we might fall into the Arctic ice hole." This coexistence of high odds and high risk perfectly illustrates the saying "great wealth comes with great risk."
* Since 81% of people believe it will reach 80k, the dominant market forces won’t let everyone get on board easily. Before breaking through, that 50% probability "dip" is very likely meant to shake out those with high-leverage long positions.
* With only 9 days left until the end of the month, this kind of prediction contract will continue to evolveRecording again the coins that rose more than 10% on today's gain list, and comparing them with the past few days, I believe what is most worth paying attention to now is not that TRUMP has risen 65%, but that the range of the market's rise is becoming broader.
A couple of days ago, the first to become active were still Meme, DeFi, and some old coins.
Looking again today, the BTC ecosystem, AI, RWA, L2, gaming, privacy, and many old projects that haven't been noticed for a long time have all been reactivated by capital.
This indicates that this market rally is moving from ignition by a few coins to gradual sector-wide diffusion.
Another phenomenon is becoming increasingly obvious: capital is starting to look for coins that haven't risen much yet.
After the first batch of strong coins has pulled away, capital hasn't immediately exited but continues to rotate towards low positions, low valuations, and high elasticity.
That's why the recent gain lists have become more and more exaggerated.
A few days ago, a 10% rise could still rank near the top; now, even a 15% rise might barely make the front rows.
However, the more this happens, the less I focus solely on who has risen the most.
Because when the market enters a broad rally, many catch-up rises will appear simply because others have risen and this one hasn't yet.
What I truly find worth recording is:
Which coins repeatedly appear on the gain list for several days;
Which sectors are the first to become active each time capital rotates;
Which leaders don't just rise for one day but continuously attract capital back.
Making the list once might just be sentiment.
Appearing two or three times in a row, or returning to the front of the gain list at different stages, shows it is indeed repeatedly noticed by capital.
So what I am doing now is not chasing the gain list but using it to screen and observe the watchlist for the next phase.
After this wave of heat passes, looking back at these days' records might be more valuable than watching which coin rose how much in a single day now. $BTC #BTC continues its strong momentum, but after the sharp rally, don’t rush to call a bull return just yet.
In the past few days, BTC quickly surged from around 65,000 to 79,000, which is indeed very strong. However, I tend to interpret this as a combination of macro pressure relief, short squeeze, and capital chasing the rally, rather than a pure bull market confirmation.
With the long-term US Treasury yields falling, risk assets get some breathing room; after BTC broke through key resistance, a large number of short positions were forced to stop loss, and liquidations turned into buying pressure, creating a positive feedback loop of "the higher it goes, the more it explodes, and the more it explodes, the higher it goes." ETH also strengthened in sync, indicating a clear short-term risk appetite recovery.
But what really needs to be observed is: how much of this rally comes from new spot capital inflows, and how much is just leveraged short covering?
If ETFs continue to flow in, spot trading volume expands, and stablecoin funds re-enter the market, then 79,000 might just be a midpoint; conversely, if volume quickly shrinks after the breakout, be wary of profit-taking after the short squeeze ends.
Assets with high elasticity like DOGE require even more caution. A quick spike can easily attract chasing funds, which then becomes an opportunity for whales to cash out liquidity.
So don’t rush to guess the top now, nor chase heavily just because you missed out. Whether 79,000 can hold and whether the first pullback can hold are the true dividing lines between strength and weakness.
Next, focus on the volume and pullback strength after the 79,000 breakout — this is more important than just watching how high the price surges.
#BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain? $BTC $ETH #BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain? #WhiteHouseSummit: Trump said he once discussed buying BTC
In mid-August 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) surged strongly past the $78,000 mark, marking its best weekly performance since March 2023. This epic rally was primarily triggered by an "epic short squeeze." Previously, BTC had been consolidating in a bottom range, accumulating a large number of overcrowded short positions. Following the U.S. Treasury's announcement to expand long-term Treasury repurchase operations, which lowered long-term Treasury yields, market liquidity expectations eased, and risk appetite quickly rebounded. After the price rally, many short positions were forced to stop-loss buy back, creating a chain reaction of "passive buying," resulting in a cumulative increase of over 20% in just 5 trading days.
Led by the leader, the entire crypto market is boiling over. Ethereum (ETH) simultaneously surged past $2,500, and mainstream coins like BNB and SOL also recorded impressive gains of over 5%. Even the Meme coin representative Dogecoin (DOGE) skyrocketed more than 18%.
Looking ahead, in the short term, due to extremely exuberant bullish sentiment and the clearing of short leverage, the market still has momentum to push upward, but caution is needed against sharp volatility triggered by profit-taking; in the long term, against the backdrop of marginal improvement in global liquidity, high-quality blue-chip assets still have considerable upside potential. Overall, short term 📈, long term 📈.Yesterday, I didn't anticipate $BTC rising to $73,000, and today I didn't expect Bitcoin to reach $79,000. However, among my close friends, there are indeed two very extreme approaches to this surge. Some of the more traditional friends have almost completely sold off all the Bitcoin or $IBIT they recently purchased, as they are not very optimistic about this rebound, believing that the rally has peaked and a deeper correction will follow.
Even selling at a loss is done to free up funds to buy more during the correction, which I can understand. On the other hand, a group of quantitative and trading-native crypto investors believe this is the start of a bull market, firmly convinced that Bitcoin's rise is a long-suppressed breakout, with expectations that Bitcoin could at least return to around $90,000.
As for me, I am a relatively conservative investor. I've always said that my ideal price, the price at which I am willing to spend real money to buy Bitcoin, is below $65,000. So I have been trading back and forth with dual coins, and at most, I can accept BTC near $70,000. But if it goes higher, I might not be in a hurry to buy. Also, my biggest hope for 2026 is not now, but after the midterm elections.
Personally, I think the best time to enter is around October, and to exit in December or January next year. This is my current personal view. Looking at the current US stock market situation, I don't believe BTC can have an explosive surge independent of the US stock market. Although it might be because it fell too much before, a catch-up rally is unlikely to be like this. So recently, I've been considering hedging around $77,000.The market is rotating into two very different types of risk at the same time: old conviction and fast attention. $ZEC , $DASH and $ZEN leading tells me privacy and old-cycle coins are suddenly being repriced. That usually happens when traders start looking for narratives that were ignored for too long, not just new hype. But beside that, $TRUMP , $WIF , $PEPE and $MUBARAK show meme liquidity is also awake. This is more dangerous because meme pumps can move fast, but the bid can disappear even fBTC and ETH are entering a price revaluation phase after a short-term overheating period. How should we interpret the gap between the apparent rate of increase and the actual supply-demand strength? As of August 22, BTC rose about 20% weekly, reaching a high of approximately $79,500, while ETH increased about 26% weekly, reaching $2,388. During this period, about $1.6 billion in net inflows were confirmed into BTC spot ETFs. This shows that the recent rise is not solely the result of individual speculative funds but also involves institutional capital participation. However, it is noteworthy that both the price increase rate and the ETF inflow scale are information already exposed to the market. In other words, the current price already reflects these two factors to a significant extent. - Momentum signal: If BTC stabilizes above $80,000, the short-term uptrend may continue. In this case, an additional range expansion up to the $82,000–$85,000 range is possible. - Risk signal: $80,000 is the previous high and a psychological resistance level. Breakouts without accompanying volume or repeated rejections in this range are$BTC Is this a precursor to a US debt bomb? The Treasury acted overnight, but the crypto community got excited first!
$ETH Last night, the traditional finance world exploded—the US 30-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007. The Treasury couldn't sit still and urgently announced doubling the long-term bond buyback limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. As soon as the news broke, the 30-year yield instantly dropped back to 5.19%.
$ZEC But the “new bond king” Gundlach revealed the essence with one sentence: “The longer the duration, the more variables time brings; when supply and inflation are full of unknowns, higher yields are the only shield for capital.” Simply put, the market fears the $40 trillion US debt black hole—the buyback is just a “sell short, buy long” bond swap operation, with no reduction in debt. Sure enough, two days later, yields shot back up to 5.28%.
This panic in traditional markets instead became a catalyst for crypto.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
Falling US Treasury yields = weaker dollar = risk assets partying. Bitcoin surged 8.2% within 12 hours after the news, once approaching $72,000. ETH rose over 19%, SOL nearly 13%. The entire network saw $1.44 billion in short liquidations—the shorts were wiped out in one wave.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
The logic is simple: the world’s largest “risk-free asset” is trembling, so where does the money flow? Bitcoin.
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 0xcf91b70017eabde82c9671e30e5502d312ea6eb2 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $XAU The gold market is influenced by both monetary and financial attributes, and in recent years, the market has been switching continuously between these two logics. On one hand, high U.S. Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of investing in gold; on the other hand, the decline in U.S. dollar credit benefits the credit system pricing of gold. These two factors continuously cause bidirectional disturbances to gold prices. Recently, data released by the U.S. Treasury showed that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries decreased in June compared to May, and data from the World Gold Council indicated that global central bank gold purchases in Q2 increased by 62% year-over-year. Market discussions about "selling U.S. Treasuries and buying gold" have intensified, bringing the "de-dollarization" narrative back into investors' focus. However, judging from gold price movements before and after the U.S. Treasury's related policy announcements—initially falling then rising—interest rate levels remain the key factor influencing gold price trends. Additionally, the long-term narrative supporting gold prices has been fully reflected in the market from 2025 through early 2026. Since the beginning of this year, U.S. authorities have frequently guided market expectations, and the verification of the future path of U.S. dollar credit decline will continue to be subject to policy interventions. Currently, gold prices remain in a mid-term adjustment phase, mainly influenced by market expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy. After mid-year market expectations for Fed rate hikes intensified, recent market expectations for the timing and magnitude of Fed rate hikes in the second half of 2026 have been continuously adjusted, weakening rate hike expectations and triggering divergent movements between the U.S. dollar and gold prices. Three coins exploded simultaneously today—HYPE broke through $80 to hit a new all-time high, ZEC surged 41% with a short-term breakout above $860, and TRUMP rose over 35% in 24 hours. Three tokens, three completely different driving logics.
$HYPE E: Trump endorsement + AQAv2 launching soon
HYPE is currently at $80.3, up more than 7.79% intraday. On August 19, Trump stated that the CFTC is working to allow Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. The bigger catalyst is on August 26—AQAv2 will officially launch, and about 90% of the platform's over $5 billion USDC reserve yield will be used to buy back and burn HYPE.
$ZEC: Grayscale ETF application + AI privacy narrative
ZEC briefly broke above $860 to a new all-time high, up 41%, with market cap rising to $13.9 billion. On August 20, Grayscale submitted the fourth revised application to convert Zcash Trust into an ETF. Zcash shielded transactions account for about 90% of trading volume; privacy features may become essential in the AI-driven financial surveillance era.
TRUMP: Presidential-themed coins collectively moving
TRUMP rose over 35%, MELANIA over 23%. No sudden fundamental events; this seems more like early pricing ahead of the November midterm elections.
HYPE relies on buybacks + compliance expectations, ZEC on ETF + privacy narrative, TRUMP on political hype. The first two have fundamental support; the third is purely sentiment-driven trading.The core trigger for this round of crypto recovery is Trump's public endorsement and call to action. It may seem like an old story, but the long-dormant crypto market has just received a timely boost, directly revitalizing market sentiment.
Precisely timing the window is key! The US midterm elections are coming in November, with September to October being the critical period for momentum building, and a clear bill expected to be implemented by mid-September. To avoid election uncertainties, all parties must finalize the bill in September, which is the core policy expectation for this market cycle.
Industry insiders know well that Trump's rise to power was inseparable from strong support from the crypto sector, earning him the nickname "Crypto President." However, during his previous term, the industry remained sluggish, with funds diverted to US stocks and the AI sector, leaving crypto in a difficult position and accumulating significant pressure.
The current situation is clear: Trump needs crypto votes to secure the midterm elections, and the crypto industry needs policy support to break the deadlock, forcing both sides to unite for mutual benefit.
Additionally, a key interpretation of institutional actions: although the market appears volatile and weak, institutions are actually repeatedly stress-testing. The overall institutional holding cost is above 70,000, and the 60,000 range is a strong support level where prices cannot fall further. The low-level oscillation and extremely low volatility serve two purposes: first, to test retail investors' willingness to hold and wash out panic sellers; second, to accumulate strength for a rapid price surge, avoiding retail investors' herd behavior and clearing short positions.
Making money in crypto has never been about hard work, but about the difference in understanding. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Gold has really surged this time, breaking through $4600. I think the logic behind it is more complex than just the word "safe haven."
What the market is truly worried about now is long-term debt and the credit of the US dollar. The US Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks was originally intended to lower financing costs and stabilize the bond market, but the market has instead started to worry: if long-term interest rates and debt pressures become increasingly difficult to manage, will there be more reliance on liquidity to resolve these issues in the future? Once this expectation arises, gold naturally becomes more attractive.
So I believe the current rise in gold is actually a form of "distrust in the monetary system." Central banks buying gold, funds buying gold, essentially adding a layer of insurance to their balance sheets.
What’s even more interesting is that BTC has also surged to around $78,000, and ETH has climbed back to around $2,400. Gold and BTC strengthening together doesn’t seem like a coincidence to me; capital is searching for value anchors outside the traditional fiat currency system.
But I myself won’t chase gold just because it broke $4600. The sharper the rise, the more you have to guard against a pullback. The same goes for BTC and ETH. This rebound has been very fast; a truly healthy market still needs to rise for a while, shake out some positions, and then continue upward. $BTC $ETH #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
On August 21, 2026, spot gold $XAU broke through the $4600/ounce mark intraday, reaching a high of $4602.04, the highest in nearly three months since May 15. COMEX gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.56% for the week, closing at $4624.10/ounce.
From a monthly performance perspective, London spot gold has steadily climbed from below $4100, with gains exceeding 13% since August. Intraday, it briefly surpassed $4630. Silver also strengthened in tandem, with spot silver touching the $70 mark. Bitcoin $BTC surged 23% within the same week.
The breakthrough of gold above $4600 essentially reflects a concentrated manifestation of a trust crisis in the US dollar credit system. The US's $40 trillion debt ceiling, the Treasury's "band-aid" interventions that instead intensified market panic, the simultaneous surge in US Treasury yields and weakening of the dollar—all these factors together have shattered the traditional perception of "US Treasuries = risk-free assets." #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ Bitcoin standing above the 50-day moving average does not mean the bottom is reached; the 50-week moving average is the key confirmation signal.
Recently, Bitcoin rebounded and stood above the 50-day moving average again, but this does not mean the market has bottomed out.
Backtesting data from previous bear markets shows that although the 50-day moving average reacts faster, it is prone to false breakouts. In contrast, the confirmation effect of the 50-week moving average is stronger, with a higher historical success rate.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is about $78,300, still some distance from the 50-week moving average at $82,400. If the weekly chart can stand above this level again in the future, it may become an important signal for the formation of the bottom in the current cycle. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $BTC $XAU $XAUT Short term (1-2 weeks)
After a rapid rise in gold prices, the technical indicators show overbought conditions with a large accumulation of profit-taking positions. The market has shifted to a consolidation and digestion mode, with quick rises and falls becoming the norm.
- Support: Decline in long-term US Treasury yields and cooling expectations for a September rate hike make the $4450-4465 range an important support zone; holding this range maintains a bullish bias.
- Resistance: The $4550-4600 range presents significant resistance; a breakout with volume is needed to open a new upward phase. The Jackson Hole central bank symposium and Federal Reserve officials' speeches may cause sharp volatility.
Medium to long term (quarterly level)
The three main underlying bullish logics remain intact:
1. Marginal weakening of US employment and inflation, the rate hike cycle nearing its end, and expectations of a lower interest rate center support gold prices.
2. Continued gold purchases by global central banks provide ongoing bottom support.
3. High US debt pressure and geopolitical uncertainties increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Main risk
If subsequent inflation data rebounds, the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance than expected, and US Treasury yields rebound again, gold prices could experience a significant correction. BTC rose 22% in one week; how was the strongest week in over three years achieved? Bitcoin surged from around $64,000 this week, reaching a high of about $79,500 on Friday, with a weekly increase exceeding 22% at one point. According to Bloomberg's statistics, if the increase holds until the weekly close, it will mark the best single-week performance since March 2023. Four forces collided simultaneously in this rally. First, the U.S. Treasury increased the scale of some long-term Treasury repurchases from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The easing pressure on long-term interest rates and a weaker dollar allowed BTC and gold to benefit from "scarce asset" trading. Second, Trump publicly urged Congress again to advance the CLARITY crypto regulatory bill, improving U.S. regulatory expectations. Third, real money flowed back into spot Bitcoin ETFs. From Monday to Thursday, net inflows were about $1.6 billion, with approximately $606 million flowing in on Thursday alone—the largest single-day inflow since May. Fourth, shorts were continuously squeezed. Since Wednesday, short liquidations across the market have exceeded $4.3 billion. The price rise forced shorts to cover, which further pushed prices up, creating a continuous short squeeze. Therefore, this weekly candle cannot be attributed solely to the "short squeeze." The short squeeze ignited the rally, but ETF funds, a weaker dollar, and policy expectations determined how far the fire could spread. Now BTC has returned to around $77,000, having touched $79,500 intraday. The $80,000 mark will become a very obvious psychological barrier next. If ETFs continue to see net inflows and the dollar remains weak BTC: Short Squeeze or Trend Reversal?
$BTC posted a weekly gain above 23%, breaking $79K and a prolonged consolidation range. Over $3B in short positions were liquidated, while Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.6B in weekly inflows.
This alone does not confirm a new bull market, but the structure differs from a typical relief rally: shorts were squeezed, liquidity returned, and spot demand strengthened. If $BTC holds the breakout zone, a deeper bearish move will require stronger evidence. In recent days, $ZEC has completely become the market focus. In just a few trading days, the price has continuously broken through key levels, once surging to around $830–$850 this morning, with gains from the low point already extremely exaggerated. This round of rally is not driven by a single piece of news, but by multiple factors simultaneously stacking: ETF expectations, institutional positioning, technical upgrades, renewed interest in the privacy sector, and derivative funds pushing the market. What is even more noteworthy is that the current logic behind ZEC's rise is real, but the speed of the price increase has begun to outpace the speed at which fundamentals are being realized. 1. Grayscale ETF may be the biggest trigger for this rally. The market's main focus is undoubtedly on advancing the conversion of Zcash Trust into a spot ETF. Grayscale has recently been continuously submitting S-3 amendment filings to promote the future listing and trading of Zcash Trust in the form of ZCSH on NYSE Arca. This means that once finally approved, traditional financial capital will gain a more direct entry point for ZEC investment. What truly stimulates the market is another piece of information in the filings: an entity under DCG is discussing contributing about 200,000 ZEC to Zcash Trust. Based on the price at that time, this portion of assets is worth over $100 million. However, 200,000 ZEC is currently only a non-binding discussion and does not mean the purchase has been completed. The market has already started pricing in advance based on the logic that "institutions will absorb a large supply of ZEC." After reading Teacher Jiang Zhuoer’s content, here are my thoughts.
First, a preface: He sold ETH between $1738-$1931 two months ago and then bought it back at a stop loss of $2100, selling half again at $2525 trying to catch the top—this kind of back-and-forth operation in his own cognitive review is the most authentic footnote of this market: even industry veterans are uncertain about the top, constantly wavering between "fear of missing out" and "fear of pullback."
Following this preface, here are my views:
His core judgment this round:
Admits the bearish view was wrong, now 90% sure the bear market is over
Bullish on ETH outperforming BTC, reasoning that Trump is pushing US financial assets on-chain, making ETH the "bull market engine"
Strategy for missing out funds: buy all BTC if it drops to 67,000-72,000, otherwise enter at current price by the end of October at the latest
Parts I agree with more:
The phrase "light judgment, heavy risk control" is earned with real money—he didn’t miss out this time, relying not on correct predictions but on the "half short position" mechanism design of WBETH staking + perpetual short positions, ensuring he’s always on the train
I also agree with the big picture (bear market ending, US on-chain narrative)
Parts to be cautious about:
He himself sold high above 2000 trying to catch the top, admitting "confidence is not high"—if even veterans hesitate, it means no one is confident in the short term
The "ETH 20,000 USDT" target he says is just a wild guess, can be used as a reference but not as a basis for action haha $BTC 🩸【BTC Meat Grinder Lab | Today's Macro】
BTC has strongly rebounded this week, once surging near $79K on Friday, with a weekly gain exceeding 20%. But what really matters today is not "how much more it can rise," but whether the macro fuel can continue.
🏦 US Treasury: ⭐⭐⭐½
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, easing pressure on long-term bonds, but long-term yields remain high, so macro risks have not completely disappeared.
💵 US Dollar: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The weakening dollar supports BTC and other non-sovereign scarce assets.
🐳 ETF: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1.6B, with approximately $606M in a single day on Thursday, showing a clear rebound in institutional demand.
⚠️ Fed: ⭐⭐⭐
The market will focus on signals from the Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole meeting. If hawkish signals are reissued, U.S. Treasury yields may rise again.
🎯 BTC Macro Key Levels
🟢 Holding above $75K → Strong bullish structure
🚀 Breaking $80K → Trend further strengthens
🔴 Losing $75K → Beware of a pullback after a rally
☠️ Breaking below $70K → This short squeeze rally needs to be reassessed
🩸 Today's Macro Sharp Commentary
BTC is no longer simply rising on sentiment.
The real fuel is:
Fiscal operations + Weakening dollar + ETF capital inflows + Short squeeze.
But don't mistake Treasury repurchases for QE.
"Macro has already handed BTC a knife; next, it depends on whether capital can keep cutting upward with it."
⭐ Today's BTC Macro Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½ / 5
🩸 The market handles the meat grinder; we focus on finding the patterns. $ETH #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $XAU Since August, international gold prices have rebounded significantly, mainly due to the temporary easing of the US-Iran conflict and the market's revision of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. At the beginning of the month, the market anticipated a de-escalation of the US-Iran situation. Subsequently, US nonfarm payroll and inflation data both fell short of expectations, leading the market to continuously reduce bets on Fed rate hikes, driving a corrective rebound in gold prices. Meanwhile, US fiscal risks have recently become a market focus again. Data released this week by the US Treasury showed that the total federal government debt exceeded $40 trillion. At the same time, long-term US Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassing 5.3%, the highest since June 2007, reflecting investors' concerns about the ongoing expansion of US fiscal deficits and the sustainability of US debt. Against this backdrop, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of its long-term Treasury buyback operations. Although the buyback scale is relatively small compared to the massive issuance of US debt and has limited substantive impact, the Treasury's swift intervention sent a clear signal to stabilize the market, alleviating the temporary pressure in the US debt market and the strong yields' suppression of gold prices. Many newcomers to crypto still don’t understand how forced liquidation actually works—especially when leverage is involved. Just last night, a trader came to me in the group to complain after his position was wiped out. He kept insisting the price never hit 13.51, so how could his account be liquidated? I didn’t look closely at first because I was live streaming, but later that evening I reviewed the details carefully. 📉 Here’s the key point he missed: liquidation is not triggered by the last tGlobal assets collectively surge! Gold breaks 4600, BTC holds above 7900, all rooted in a single operation by the U.S. Treasury
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Recently, the global market has witnessed an extremely unified phenomenon: gold skyrocketing past the 4600 USD mark, BTC powerfully breaking through 79000 USD, and the U.S. dollar index steadily retreating.
Many only see the price surge but fail to realize: the bond market, gold, and crypto markets all moved simultaneously, triggered solely by the U.S. Treasury pressing the national debt repurchase button.
That night that rewrote short-term global pricing
On the evening of August 19, everything reached a turning point.
The U.S. Treasury announced: the single repurchase limit for long-term government bonds was doubled from 2 billion to at least 4 billion USD. The moment the news landed, the market immediately repriced:
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged 10 basis points; the previously soaring long-term rates, which had hit a 19-year high, suddenly stalled;
The S&P 500 closed slightly higher, gold surged 4% in a single day to firmly hold above 4500, then continued climbing;
The dollar weakened in response, BTC rose 5% that day to reclaim above 70,000, then accelerated to break through 79,000, with short sellers across the network suffering massive liquidations.
Many wonder: why could a seemingly routine government bond liquidity operation move tens of trillions in global markets?
The answer is simple: it touched the pricing foundation of the global 40 trillion USD Treasury system.
Before this, the 30-year Treasury yield had soared to a high of 5.337%, with the entire market trading on "higher rates, longer duration," causing funds to flock to Treasury safe havens, while zero-yield assets like gold and BTC were continuously neglected.
But this time, the Treasury directly intervened, creating an official mandatory buyer for long-term Treasuries. The market instantly understood the signal: the U.S. will never allow long-term rates to rise unchecked; there is an implicit ceiling on rates.
Complete transmission chain, understand the surge logic at a glance
1. Treasury expands long-term bond repurchases → long-term Treasuries are supported, bond prices rise, yields quickly fall
2. Risk-free Treasury yields shrink, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield scarce assets like gold and BTC
3. The dollar weakens under pressure, massive funds, like a driven tide, flood into two core safe havens: gold and Bitcoin
Subsequent market action fully confirms this logic: BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows exceeding 1.6 billion USD over three consecutive days, real spot funds entering the market, combined with massive short covering from previously piled-up shorts, directly pushing prices to break through resistance.
Deeper essence: this is a silent de-dollarization stress test
This market move has long surpassed simple interest rate speculation.
With U.S. debt exceeding 40 trillion USD, the hidden risks of long-term debt rollover grow increasingly prominent, multiple foreign countries continue reducing Treasury holdings, and trust in dollar assets is slowly loosening.
When the global asset pricing anchor begins to show signs of loosening, assets with fixed supply that cannot be arbitrarily printed by sovereigns will be revalued by capital.
Gold, as a millennia-old hard currency, erupts first, while Bitcoin becomes the best hedge in the digital world.
Finally, a practical takeaway
1. This rally is not an isolated crypto event but a macro liquidity inflection-driven trend recovery; closely monitor Treasury yields and ETF fund continuity, and avoid relying solely on market sentiment to judge price moves;
2. Short-term gains may overextend sentiment; do not blindly go all-in at high levels. This Treasury operation is liquidity adjustment, not a formal Fed rate cut; the bullishness is expectation-driven and may quickly reverse once expectations are priced in;
3. In the long run, as long as Treasury risks remain unresolved, the logic of allocating scarce value-preserving assets will repeatedly take effect.
Understanding the bond market is key to truly grasping gold and Bitcoin price movements. This collective rally is never accidental.
⚠️ Risk warning: This article is only a market logic review and discussion, not any investment advice. Financial markets are highly volatile; please strictly control positions and trade rationally. $TRUMP up +60.55% today, +94.70% over 7 days. But zooming out: the real movement isn’t just this one coin, it’s the entire narrative. Among 243 sectors today, the strongest is PolitiFi, up +51.6% in 24h, with MELANIA +39.8% and PEOPLE +12.9% almost all rising — broad member gains indicate rotation, while only the leader moving is just a pump. The contract side matches this: USD value of positions up +119.84% in 24h, number of contracts +34.83%, showing real money entering, not just shorts closing; fee rate 0.0050%, leverage not accumulated. But two points must be clarified. First, the ratio of whales to retail is only 1.119, with large holders at 2.459 and retail at 2.198 almost synchronized — unlike today’s $ZEC where retail chased shorts and whales added longs, a clear divergence, here it’s emotional resonance. Second, it’s still -96.2% from the all-time high, circulating supply only 25% of total, with the remaining 75% unlock timing hanging overhead. RSI 4h at 79 is milder than ZEC, but the pullback is equally irrational. This week, Bitcoin surged from 62,000 to 78,000, which on the surface looks like a short squeeze.
But what really ignited the market was the decision by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday.
She doubled the long-term Treasury repurchase scale from 2 billion to 4 billion.
The problem is, this operation only lasted less than a day. After a brief drop, long-term bond yields came under pressure again and basically stayed flat for the week.
Yellen herself said the market was "a bit overreacting." But the dollar did fall, while gold and Bitcoin surged in sync.
Barclays strategists put it bluntly—the dollar is the "biggest loser" in this round of operations, and fiscal concerns have reignited safe-haven demand. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold is now at its highest level since the pandemic. Manulife's investment manager pointed out the fundamental issue: "The Treasury can influence liquidity, but it can't suppress fundamental forces."
Three things happened simultaneously—Bitcoin rose, gold rose, and the dollar fell. This is not a trade on risk appetite warming up; it's pricing in the U.S. fiscal deficit. After the tools in Yellen's toolbox are exhausted, the real macro fundamentals will retake pricing power. $BTC Macroeconomic high interest rates continue to suppress risk appetite in the US stock market, with $RIOT maintaining an 11.0x P/S ratio facing valuation transmission pressure. Currently, a market value of $7.44 billion corresponds to an annualized revenue of $674.5 million, and its valuation multiple is higher than peers MARA and CLSK in the same sector. If inflation data raises expectations for the interest rate path, a contraction in market risk appetite will trigger a reduction in holdings of high P/S US mining companies. The condition to watch is whether Riot's annualized revenue growth stabilizes and whether the P/S compresses to the 8x level.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？ #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元The most direct fuel for this round of rally is the short sellers being forced to liquidate.
In the past three days, nearly $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin shorts have been forcibly closed, with about $4.5 billion of short positions liquidated across the entire market.
189,000 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.459 billion.
At the same time, institutions continue to buy. Thirteen US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $1 billion this week, poised to record the largest weekly net inflow since January. Whales have increased their Bitcoin holdings by about $2.75 billion in the past 60 days. BlackRock's IBIT is the world's largest Bitcoin ETF, with $55 billion in assets under management. Bearish bets on it have been increasing this year, with short positions soaring to about 3% of the float.
On Wednesday, Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House, urging the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act. However, the bill stalled due to disagreements over ethics provisions and failed to be voted on before the August recess. The White House is pushing, but Congress is inactive; the two are moving at different paces.
A week ago it was 62,000, now 78,000. Shorts have been liquidated once, ETFs continue to attract funds, and whales are accumulating. But shorts can be liquidated once, not twice. The real trend requires sustained spot buying support. Next week's movement is more worth watching than this week's surge. $BTC $ETH $2,514, +7.46%, up 29% this week outperforming BTC. ETF single-day inflow $220.7M hits a 10-month high, 4 consecutive days inflow totaling $512M. Shorts liquidated $1.69B in 3 days.
This time ETH is truly outperforming BTC. ETF net inflow of $512M over 4 days, BlackRock's ETHA is the main force. Whale 0x2d59 withdrew 120,000 ETH ($237.7M) from Binance over three weeks, Abraxas Capital also withdrew 18,000 ETH. Exchange ETH balances dropped to multi-month lows, selling pressure is contracting.
But some are exiting. 7 Siblings sold 14,000 ETH at an average price of $2,346, cashing out $32.85M. However, on-chain Network Realized Profits indicator is very low, indicating LTHs are not unloading massively, Age Consumed is calm, old holders are still holding.
Fidelity's ETH ETF staking application is still awaiting SEC approval. If approved, it will directly lock ETH liquidity, bringing the yield narrative. Coinbase Premium is recovering but not yet positive, US funds are returning but not strongly enough.
So overall, ETH is running an independent trend, driven by ETF + short liquidations + staking narrative. But RSI at 86 is extremely overbought, $2,550 is resistance. Don't chase the high, consider buying on a pullback to $2,350 On August 21, 24,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.84, a max pain point at $67,000, and a notional value of $1.82 billion.
This week, 6% of options expired, with trading activity surging significantly. The rapid increase in price and activity caused the bullish Gex to be highly dispersed, while the bearish Gex is almost negligible.
The options market is shifting from "long" to "crazy long."
The bullish position distribution has become extremely scattered, while the downside hedging is nearly zero.
This structure means the market is overwhelmingly betting on a rise, and if the direction reverses, positions lacking hedging protection will be quickly liquidated.
Bitcoin's rally this week was significant, breaking through $76,000 and surpassing two major consolidation zones this year.
However, analysts at Greeks.live also pointed out another fact — this is a rare expiry day this year where the settlement price is above the max pain point.
The price has moved above the options max pain point, meaning a large number of call options are now in the money.
Holders of these in-the-money options are taking profits, and Gamma is shifting from buyers to sellers.
The stronger the price surge, the weaker the support provided by Gamma. $BTC