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The cumulative shipment of the Xuanjie O1 chip has exceeded one million units, supporting a long-term valuation premium, but overseas commercialization will only begin in the second half of 2027, creating a core contradiction in the current earnings season between R&D expenses eroding profits and capital position competition.
$XIAOMI's market sentiment shows a premium ahead of the launch of the new generation Xuanjie chip, yet the scale of over one million units shipped across three terminal products has not yet resulted in positive profit dilution. The clear overseas roadmap for Q3 and Q4 of 2027 means that the project will remain in a pure capital expenditure phase for the next two years, directly extending the payback period pricing for risk capital.
The driving factors in order are: the erosion of current profit margins by R&D expense ratios during the earnings season, tightening market risk appetite for high-spending targets under macro inflationary conditions, and the long-term expectation of a profitability inflection point overseas in 2027. If capital costs remain high, high R&D spending will directly suppress short-term position tolerance for high valuation multiples.
The upside scenario trigger is the new generation chip launch accompanied by hardware gross margins exceeding expectations, with improved market risk appetite driving institutional positions to rebuild. Variables to watch include whether increased chip self-sufficiency can offset per-unit R&D costs. If the R&D expense ratio continues to rise without improving main business gross margins, the upside logic fails.
The downside scenario trigger is earnings confirming that R&D investment significantly pressures operating profit, prompting short-term cash-flow-preferential positions to accelerate exit. Variables to watch include whether major funds close positions on the concept premium ahead of earnings release. If terminal shipment scale unexpectedly surges, significantly diluting prior R&D costs, the downside scenario will be invalidated.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the actual change rate of R&D expenses as a proportion of revenue in the earnings report and the flow direction of institutional holdings during the earnings window.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？#BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain?
Recently, the BTC market has really exceeded expectations, let me share my thoughts with you all.
BTC has directly stabilized above $77,500, with nearly a 20% increase in the past three days, breaking the low sideways consolidation that lasted for several months.
The latest data is also crucial: on August 21, the combined net inflow of US BTC and ETH spot ETFs reached $826 million. The capital is no longer just a pulse from short covering but has gradually shifted to active spot buying.
Interestingly, market opinions have completely polarized: Jim Cramer, who previously called to sell BTC, now recommends buying; Peter Schiff, who has been bearish on Bitcoin long-term, believes this breakout above 72,000 is a false breakout and still favors gold.
Now market sentiment is heating up, and the chasing atmosphere is getting stronger, but I also have some concerns. Whether this rally can evolve from a short-term short squeeze into a stable upward trend mainly depends on whether ETF funds can continuously absorb the profit-taking pressure at high levels.
I want to ask everyone, do you think this capital flow can continue? Should we keep bullish or be cautious of a pullback risk? [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
This recent surge of BTC to 79,000 was forcibly pushed up by "three forces":
short squeeze, policy optimism, and liquidity easing. A 15% gain in three days, with shorts liquidated for $2.5 billion, and the entire market clearing $4.5 billion — shorts essentially eliminated themselves, creating a vicious cycle of "pump → liquidation → pump again."
But now the short squeeze momentum has clearly faded. Perpetual contract open interest hasn't risen much, indicating new longs are hesitant to chase; it's mostly old shorts being forced to close positions, not genuine capital competing. Even the LO:TECH group said no one is willing to pay the premium, showing a lot of fear.
Is there real money? Yes, but it's not quite ready yet.
ETFs have brought in $1 billion over three days, with $517 million on the 19th alone, hitting a three-and-a-half-month high; on-chain whales have accumulated 43,000 BTC over 60 days, worth $2.75 billion. But the ETF average cost is 82,000, and the price has just reached the breakeven point — it's not yet time for retail frenzy.
There are two hidden forces to watch:
First, whether ETFs can sustain daily inflows of several hundred million without drying up after a couple of days;
Second, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds 840,000 BTC at an average cost of 75,000, has just recovered some value, but hasn't made moves in the past week. When it resumes issuing preferred shares to buy coins, that will be the real signal.
Pharaoh's summary:
Whether BTC can continue to rally depends on ETF inflow sustainability and when Strategy acts.
A pullback confirmation before rising again is a hundred times safer than chasing highs.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ LIT might be one of the most mispriced tokens on my ETH watchlist.
I’m not betting on Lighter becoming the next Hyperliquid.
The thesis is much simpler:
Lighter is doing almost 90% of Aster’s weekly perp volume, yet trades at roughly one-third of Aster’s valuation.
Right now:
Lighter • $674M market cap
• $9.95B weekly perp volume
• $1.07B open positions
• $1.11M weekly fees
Aster • $1.97B market cap
• $11.39B weekly perp volume
• $2.18B open positions
• $1.13M weekly fees
#DailyOrbit The leader has something to say
The long positions on Bitcoin have been closed, all profits taken. Entered Ethereum at 2348, added to the position with floating profits and went heavy, exited around 2530. In two days, Bitcoin gained over 5000 points, Ethereum nearly 200 points, the pace felt comfortable. $BTC $ETH $SOL
At this stage of the market, the main upward squeeze rally has basically been captured. After the Treasury's buyback, long-term bond yields dropped from 5.33% to 5.18%, the White House summit confirmed the strategic reserve narrative, and $3 billion in shorts were liquidated. These three factors combined pushed this wave. Bitcoin surged from 64000 directly above 80000, a 16000-point move in two days, exceeding expectations.
Closing long positions does not mean bearish. The trend remains, but the cost-effectiveness of chasing highs in the short term has indeed decreased. The fuel for the squeeze rally is being consumed, shorts that needed to explode have already done so, the rest are tough nuts to crack. Next, we need to observe the strength of the pullback and volume coordination, wait for a retracement to confirm support before considering re-entry. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
Ethereum's elasticity in this wave is clearly greater than Bitcoin's, from 2348 to 2530, nearly an 8% increase. The strategy of adding to positions with floating profits worked very well in this wave, with proper position management, profits were much larger than simply holding.
This wave of the market has been captured, next is not to be greedy. Wait for a pullback, see if the 75000 to 76000 range can hold steady. If the retracement is on low volume and does not break support, re-enter and continue going long. If it breaks down on high volume, it means this squeeze rally has entered a consolidation digestion phase, wait for a deeper pullback to find a position.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, stop losses must be set on positions, good luck.In this wave of a strong bullish trend that changes beliefs, it's a bit of a pity that there is no $OKB. It is estimated that OKB will still move sideways next week.
1. Although it has recently reclaimed the 100 level by momentum, there is no main theme; among the five coins, it actually fell 2.6% this week, with funds withdrawing from independent small caps back to mainstream coins.
2. It broke 100 to 97 on the 18th, now back to 106. The independent bull market has ended in the short term but hasn't collapsed, just been outperformed.
3. The fully circulating 21 million supply has no unlocking selling pressure. This was an advantage during market fear, but now in a frenzy period, this advantage is worthless.
4. The OKX ecosystem fundamentals remain. Trading volume and on-chain activity haven't changed, but the market doesn't care now—funds are chasing more elastic mainstream and meme coins.
5. No independent catalyst. Previously supported by the "platform value re-evaluation" narrative, now the narrative is overshadowed by $BTC. OKB needs its own positive news to rise again.
Trading view: Reduce positions if it falls below 100; only a break above 110 counts as a restart of an independent trend. OKB has now been downgraded from the "only offensive position" to "waiting for rotation." Funds may return only when the overall market stabilizes.WHAT IF $60K ISN’T JUST THE BOTTOM — BUT THE NEW MINER COST LINE?
If Bitcoin’s down cycle ends around $60K, its production cost could still have a major influence on price.
This cycle, though, miner selling may have been driven less by rising production costs and more by their own financial needs — funding expansion into AI, data centers, and other businesses.
So the real question is:
#DailyOrbit $826M ETF inflow in a session isn't short-covering, that's real money walking in. First BTC move in months I'm not fading.
RSI's stretched at 85 though a breather before $79,440 wouldn't surprise me.
Hold above old high $82,800 and this stops being a squeeze, starts being a trend.#BTC77KFlowTest $BTC 🔥 4.5 billion short positions liquidated in three days — this short squeeze is harsher than you think.
BTC rose 24% this week, marking the best single week in three years, touching 79,500 intraday, approaching 80,000. The core driver isn’t retail FOMO, but a short squeeze: in the past three days, 4.5 billion in bearish leverage was liquidated in the crypto market (BTC shorts alone accounted for 2.5 billion), passive buying pushed prices up → triggering more liquidations → a self-reinforcing cycle.
Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced on Wednesday a doubling of long-term bond buybacks (a turning point) + Trump met with Coinbase urging the "Clear Act" + ETF funds flowing back, creating a three-engine resonance.
However, RSI at 77.8 is still overbought, 80,000 is a strong psychological barrier (last time at 80,000 was in May this year), and 84,000 is the real technical resistance. The short squeeze isn’t over yet, but don’t get ahead of yourself chasing above 80,000. Wait for a pullback to 71,500-72,000 (previous highs turned support) before scaling in, managing your position to avoid stop-loss spikes.
Do you think this round can break 80,000 in one go, or will it first pull back to 72,000 for a shakeout? Share your position in the comments.韩国一个小菜店的老板，用500万韩元开始炒股。二十多年后，他公开披露的持仓规模已经超过200亿韩元. 按现在的汇率，相当于用约2.4万元人民币起步，后来做到接近1亿元。$BTC 他叫裴镇汉。 刚接触股票时，他把打工攒下的钱全部买入LG信息通信，半年接近十倍。第一次大赚以后，他又连续做了几笔没有深入研究的交易，很快把利润亏了回去。 此后，他开始专门研究没人关注的低价小公司。 裴镇汉最经典的选股方法，叫做“555”筛选法。 市净率低于0.5倍，市盈率低于5倍，股息率接近5%。这三个数字只负责找出传统低估中小盘。股票进入名单以后，他还要依次检查实际控制人，催化，财务，市场反应和图表。 第一步是查实际控制人。 他会看大股东持股比例，过去有没有增持或减持，公司控制权是否频繁更换，再翻关联交易，资金用途和历年分红。 大股东持股很低，债务很高，连续亏损，或者经常更换控制人的公司，会先被排除。控制人持股较高并且继续投入，个人利益才更可能与公司长期价值绑在一起。 第二步是找催化。 大股东增持，回购注销，资产出售，大额订单，扭亏，新业务和行业复苏，都可能让市场重新定价。他会继续追问催化什么时候发生，最先• Don't sleep too hard on the weekend: BTC surged 23% in a single week, but $300 million in shorts were just liquidated... BTC this morning (8/22) is at $78,188, +4.54% in 24h, with trading volume up 17.6%, accumulating about 23% gain this week, marking the best weekly performance since March 2023. Why did it suddenly fly this wave? 1. The US Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases → long-end yields fell → risk assets collectively took off; 2. Spot BTC ETFs saw nearly $300 million net inflow in a single day, with IBIT and FBTC leading the inflows; 3. From 8/19 to 8/20, over $3 billion in short positions in the derivatives market were forcibly liquidated, short squeeze turned into fuel; 4. White House crypto summit + regulatory clarity expectations added more fire to bullish sentiment. Short-term outlook (UTC+8 Saturday morning): • Intraday bull-bear dividing line: 77,000–77,200, holding on the hourly chart → bullish structure remains; • Resistance above: 78,600 / 79,500 / 80,000, 80k needs volume to hold steady to open space; • If it effectively breaks below 77,000, first look for support at 75,000–75,200, then if broken, return to around 72k; • Daily RSI has reached 77–83, a typical overbought zone, weekend spike probability > one-sided continuation. My judgment (for review only, not a trade call): This round is not a “slow bull,” but a “liquidity pulse bull.” The real bull is still#BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain?
$BTC surged from about $63,000 to nearly $80,000 this week, with a weekly increase of nearly 23%. Crypto-related assets have almost all entered Risk-on mode.
A few days ago, when BTC broke through $69,000, the market could still explain it as a "short squeeze," since there was a large-scale Short Squeeze at that time. But BTC continued to break through $69,000 to $70,000, $75,000, and then approached $80,000, indicating that relying solely on short covering is increasingly difficult to explain this rally.
What I’m most focused on next is: who is willing to keep buying at $80,000?
If ETFs and spot funds can continue to have net inflows, this rally may have shifted from an "oversold rebound" to a genuine trend trade; but if new funds can’t keep up, a weekly gain of over 20% also means that short-term leverage and profit-taking positions have already accumulated significantly.
So at this level, I won’t simply chase just because it broke $80,000, nor will I turn bearish just because it has "risen too much."
What truly determines BTC’s next stop is not the round number of $80,000, but whether there is real money continuing to buy after the breakout. Worried about "trapping people" already? That means you still haven't truly understood the essence of this rally. Don't use old perspectives to view new market conditions. You say accumulating at 58,000 and 65,000 for two months—I agree with that judgment. But after quickly pulling away from the cost zone, the dealer's goal is never to "trap the bulls chasing the price," but to create divergence—making enough people get off and enough people get on, raising the average holding cost so the next phase can move smoothly. You think short positions are meant to lose? Wrong. New short positions at this level are precisely the fuel for the subsequent market moves. The dealer isn't afraid of you opening shorts; they're afraid no one opens shorts. $ETH did toughen up today, but don't get excited. It’s strong because funds are starting to expect sector rotation, not because it’s inherently strong. The exchange rate pair is still low and flat, the catch-up logic exists, but don’t treat it as the leader to hype. $DOGE hitting new highs follows the same logic—overflow funds just looking for an emotional outlet. As for $OKB, I hold it just like you and feel similarly. Others are soaring while it climbs slowly; others fluctuate while it pulls back—it’s indeed frustrating. But to be fair, its value support isn’t driven by hype; the foundation is there. If it really forms a double top, I’ll admit defeat and exit; but if it holds at this level, the upside space isn’t smaller than those popular tokens bought at highs. Ultimately, the main theme of this rally is clear: $BTC is the flag bearer, others are just running alongside. Altcoins can be played with, but don’t get carried away. My current positions are just two: a core BTC holding that I won’t move, and OKB patiently waiting for direction. The flashy stuff, no matter how much it rises, doesn’t make me envious After SK Hynix's buyback was implemented, Samsung actually feels more pressure.
For this round of AI storage profits, the market is no longer satisfied with just hearing the company say "demand is very good." Investors now want to ask more directly: who exactly ended up with the money earned? Continuing to expand production and R&D is of course important, but if management only keeps throwing all the cash back into the cycle, shareholders will instinctively fear a repeat of the last storage bull market.
SK Hynix's buyback first passes the problem to Samsung: you also have to prove that this AI dividend is not just for capital expenditure and the supply chain, but can also turn into shareholder returns.
The valuation divergence of storage stocks essentially boils down to one question: is this truly a cash cow, or just another round of a more luxurious cycle illusion?If Anthropic really wants to rush its IPO, what retail investors should focus on is not how much its valuation resembles SpaceX's.
What I care more about is whether it can prove one thing: whether model companies actually have sufficiently solid profit margins. AI companies can easily talk about revenue growth now, with increased customer usage and amplified API bills, the numbers look good. But the problem is, computing power, talent, copyrights, enterprise sales—each of these consumes money.
SpaceX is expensive, but at least it has verifiable assets like rockets, Starlink, and launch contracts. Anthropic is expensive, but the market is buying into the "future workflow entry point." This story is very sexy, but also very risky.
The most fascinating thing about AI IPOs is that everyone fears missing out on the next-generation platform; the most heartbreaking thing is that even good companies can be so expensive that ordinary people find it hard to make money.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX The faster BTC rallies this round, the more important it is to see clearly who is taking the baton.
What I fear most right now is not the rise itself, but everyone misreading "short squeeze liquidation" as "long-term capital has already entered the market." A short squeeze feels great, like flooring the gas pedal to get the car out of the mud, but whether it can keep running afterward depends on ETF capital, spot market depth, and whether long-term holders are keeping up.
If it's just forced margin calls covering positions, the market will be lively but fragile. A truly healthy rise should have people slowly buying on the dips, not just relying on a bunch of shorts getting liquidated.
The impulse to resist most at this time is imagining two big bullish candles as the dawn of a new era.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ BTC: Short Squeeze or Trend Reversal?
$BTC posted a weekly gain above 23%, breaking $79K and a prolonged consolidation range. Over $3B in short positions were liquidated, while Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.6B in weekly inflows.
This alone does not confirm a new bull market, but the structure differs from a typical relief rally: shorts were squeezed, liquidity returned, and spot demand strengthened. If $BTC holds the breakout zone, a deeper bearish move will require stronger evidence. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND BITCOIN’S RALLY 👀
Bitcoin breaking $77K and then $79K isn’t just another green candle.
There’s a bigger macro story underneath it: U.S. debt has crossed $40T, deficits are exploding, gold is climbing, and investors are increasingly questioning how much exposure they really want to traditional bonds.
That’s why this rally feels different.
This isn’t just a crypto trade. It’s becoming a debt trade.
Not every pump is real demand.
#DailyOrbit Very interesting, the pricing of large models between China and the US has diverged sharply this round. On August 21, OpenAI officially announced that the API and credit pricing for GPT-5.6
Sol will be reduced by more than 20% over the next three months. Domestically, it's the opposite: DeepSeek leads the price increase, followed by Zhipu, Kimi, and MiniMax, with Morgan Stanley reporting that the average API input price for domestic models rose to 4.9 yuan per million tokens in Q2, compared to 3.3 yuan in Q1 2025, and the output price has increased even more to 21.9 yuan.
My first reaction was that I read it wrong, but after double-checking, it's correct. The key is the main force behind the price increase: independent model vendors are leading the rise, while large companies with their own computing power remain inactive or adjust prices covertly. To put it plainly, the computing power cost is fixed; independent vendors can't sustain low prices to gain market share and have to raise prices; OpenAI, on the other hand, is proactively lowering prices to capture volume. The intentions on both sides are different.
This round of price increases looks like a correction, but in fact, it's just that independent vendors can't hold on any longer.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
#财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, which business line do you favor more?
The chip self-research line, I respect it long-term, but short-term it is an expense.
Market page/Conference call: Xuanjie O1's three terminals have cumulatively shipped over one million units, the new generation is about to launch; Lei Jun has set overseas expansion for Q3-Q4 2027. Self-developed chips are a true moat, a perfect long-term narrative.
But the pace is relatively delayed. Going overseas only in 2027 means it will be pure investment for the next two years, not contributing profit. Today's rise includes "chip localization" sentiment, but the earnings report only verifies the present — currently it is consuming R&D.
Good long-term, short-term drag, I keep a respectful distance from this line.
$XIAOMI In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has continued to develop along the direction of "spot capital inflow + short covering + high Beta rotation." BTC has risen above $77,000, with ETH and SOL further outperforming BTC. Compared to the past two days, the capital base of this rally is becoming more solid: ETF funds continue to see large-scale net inflows, stablecoin supply is beginning to expand, and Solana on-chain transactions are simultaneously increasing.
But another aspect is becoming increasingly clear—the Fear and Greed Index has reached 71, and over $1 billion worth of short liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours. The market has quickly shifted from "fear of falling" to "fear of missing out."
1️⃣ 📈 BTC approaches $80,000, ETH and SOL start to outperform
As of 10:09 HKT:
BTC: $77,997 | 24h +5.7%
ETH: $2,509 | 24h +7.7%
SOL: $94.08 | 24h +6.4%
The total crypto market cap rose to about $2.652 trillion, with BTC dominance falling from 59.01% yesterday to 58.76%.
This change is worth noting.
In the past few days, BTC mainly led the rally, but now ETH and SOL are starting to achieve significant excess returns, indicating that capital is spreading from BTC to higher Beta assets.
Among the top 30 non-stablecoin market caps, ZEC rose about 37.9% in one day, becoming one of the strongest assets today.
Therefore, the market structure is undergoing:
BTC breakout → ETH#SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？
On August 20, the second round of unlocking released 319 million shares available for trading, accounting for about 7% of early holdings. On that day, SPCX dropped about 5.5% to around $132, briefly falling below $130 during the session. The trading volume was 83.2 million shares, lower than the 10-day average volume of 143.7 million shares, indicating that the selling pressure was not as large as expected, just that buyers were cautious.
There is an even larger amount coming up—about 1.3 billion shares in November, and the 180-day lock-up period expires in December. Analysts' consensus target price is $222.73, but short-term supply pressure is real. $135 is a psychological barrier; if it can't be surpassed, the short term will remain a digestion phase. The first unlocking did not crash the market because the chips changed hands at a low level, while the second time is at a rebound high, which is completely different in nature.$BTC is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 this week:
1. This wave is a short squeeze rally, rising 24% in a week, from 63,000 to nearly 80,000. The increase is too fast, RSI is off the charts. The shorts have all been squeezed out, such a slope cannot be sustained.
2. In the past two days, $BTC volume exploded, but momentum has weakened. BTC's daily trading volume surged to $96B (usually 30-40B), but the last two candlesticks show shrinking volume, indicating that the chasing funds can no longer drive the price up.
3. Moreover, we are currently in a macroeconomic positive vacuum period. The big positive news from the past two days is indeed good, but few are about to be implemented immediately, and the macro environment is only verbally improving. Everyone should be cautiously optimistic.
This wave is a short squeeze rally, not a bull market rebound. Don't let a single bullish candle change your belief, especially don't go all in at 80,000.
Also, don't short. If it weren't for so many stubborn shorts yesterday, I don't think it would have risen above 78,000 so quickly. This is a short squeeze rally; the more shorts there are, the more stubborn they are, the more fuel it becomes!😱 Global assets are all rushing in the same direction—gold surges to 4600, $BTC breaks through 79000
That terrifying night. From August 19 to 20, the long-term US Treasury yields plunged by 10 basis points, the S&P rose slightly by 0.2%, gold jumped 4% straight to 4500, Bitcoin bounced 5% back above the 70,000 mark, and the US dollar index fell accordingly. A single trigger simultaneously ignited the bond, gold, and crypto markets—the Treasury Department announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, raising the single transaction cap from 2 billion to at least 4 billion.
Why does a technical operation have such power? Because it moves the most core figure in the global financial system—the $40 trillion US debt pricing power.
The 30-year yield just hit a 5.337% high not seen since 2019, traders were still betting on "higher for longer" rates, but Bassett suddenly intervened, injecting demand directly into the long end. The effect was immediate: the yield curve quickly flattened, the relative appeal of risk-free assets was instantly suppressed, and funds flooded like rabbits driven from their burrows toward two directions—gold and Bitcoin. The logic is clear and neat:
Long-end yields fall → dollar under pressure → fixed supply assets appreciate. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1.6 billion for three consecutive days, shorts were bloodied, and the coin price broke through 79000.
For the crypto world, this was an official "de-dollarization" stress test—when the global asset pricing anchor starts to loosen, the best safe havens are
$BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ BTC is currently at 77,900, having surged from 62,800 to 79,500 in three days, with a weekly increase of 22%.
In the past 3 days, the entire network liquidated about 4.5 billion USD in short positions, with single-day short liquidations exceeding 1 billion.
On 8/20, spot BTC ETF net inflow was 608 million, with August's cumulative 2.07 billion setting a new high for 2026; the daily RSI soared to 78–86, clearly overbought.
The first push was short covering, the baton now passes to ETFs with real money.
75,000 has become support; whether it holds depends on spot buying. No top guessing, just watching the support. 👊
BTC accelerates upward, can the funds continue to follow through?$AAVE is undergoing a new shift where on-chain liquidity is penetrating high-yield credit assets, driven by the expansion of lending pools and full-income buybacks.
On the spot side, over 205,000 tokens have been absorbed by protocol automatic buybacks in the past ten months, and the circulating selling pressure in the secondary market is being continuously digested by the protocol's cash flow.
The V4 version's deposit scale has surpassed $400 million, combined with a governance proposal to integrate the high-yield credit fund HINC into the collateral pool, opening a higher-yield sedimentation channel for lending funds.
The introduction of high-yield collateral directly expands the base for capturing protocol interest and fees, which then converts incremental funds into spot buying support through the full buyback mechanism.
If the HINC credit assets are successfully incorporated into the collateral pool and the protocol's weekly fees steadily remain above $7 million, the buyback flywheel will further withdraw circulating spot, driving the liquidity structure to continue favoring the bulls.
If bad debt liquidation occurs in the credit underlying assets, or if the lending pool growth stagnates, the expected income decline will quickly weaken the spot buyback's absorption strength.
If the protocol's single-week fee income falls below $6 million, the market pricing logic maintained by cash flow buybacks will face temporary falsification.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether the overall lending pool TVL can continue to maintain net inflows alongside V4 deposit growth.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？In three days, 64000→75000, up 17%, shorts were liquidated for 3 billion USD.
My long position at 64700 has a good floating profit, but the higher it goes, the more fragile it feels.
The first surge in this wave was caused by short covering, not by real spot money piling up.
The policy cards are strong: US Treasury repo doubled, CLARITY Act vote on 9.15, ETF inflows of 700 million in two days.
CryptoQuant: Spot + perpetual demand turned positive simultaneously for the first time since 2025.
But the daily RSI soared to 80, a clear technical overbought signal.
A short squeeze can trigger a rally, but it can't sustain it.
75000 has been touched; whether it holds depends on spot support.
Not guessing the top, just watching the support. 👊
BTC accelerates the rally, can the funds keep up the relay?#Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
I am Cige. Anthropic is expected to publicly file IPO documents as early as the end of August, with a fundraising scale that could match SpaceX's $75 billion, or even exceed $86.2 billion. Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, annualized at $65 billion, with adjusted operating profit turning positive. However, a net loss close to $42 billion is expected in 2025.
This is yet another AI giant rushing to the public market amid huge losses. Revenue growth is astonishing, and losses are equally staggering. Market pricing divergence will focus on computing power costs, loss pressure, and whether enterprise customer revenue can support a high valuation. If the IPO is well received, it will further reinforce the logic of capital expenditure on AI infrastructure. If voting with their feet, concerns about an AI valuation bubble will be amplified.
Impact on BTC: The concentrated IPOs of AI giants are a stress test on the funding side. Short-term market sentiment is boosted, but in the medium to long term, there is a capital siphoning effect. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking, you savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL Regarding the rumor "Trump issuing a token on Robinhood Chain," there is currently no official confirmation, and it is highly likely a FOMO hype within the Chinese community. Below is an analysis of the rumor and a guide on what to do if it turns out to be true.
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🔍 Background and cause of the rumor: Why did this news arise?
This rumor is a "chemical fusion" of multiple independent events:
· Robinhood CEO's regulatory appeal: At the White House crypto meeting on August 19, the Robinhood CEO called for relaxed tokenization regulations in the U.S. This has no direct connection to "issuing a token," but the market overinterpreted it.
· Robinhood stock price movement: On August 21, HOOD surged 11.69%, and the market attributed the rise to the "Trump token issuance" rumor.
· FOMO cycle in the Chinese community: This rumor mainly fermented in the Chinese community, with almost no voice overseas. Logically, the current president issuing a Meme coin before midterm elections would have extremely high political costs; such a "major news" would not be spread only on Chinese X.
Conclusion: This is most likely market noise rather than reliable insider information.
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🛠️ If it turns out to be true: Where and how to buy?
If Trump really issues a token on Robinhood Chain, it can only be purchased through decentralized exchanges (DEX):
Step 1: Prepare a compatible wallet
Download Robinhood Wallet (native support) or MetaMask and manually add the network:
· Network Name: Robinhood Chain
· Chain ID: 4663
· Currency Symbol: ETH
· RPC URL: https://rpc.mainnet.chain.robinhood.com
Step 2: Obtain Gas fees (ETH)
Withdraw ETH from an exchange to your wallet, making sure to select "Robinhood Chain" as the withdrawal network.
Step 3: Trade on DEX
On Uniswap, 1inch, or other DEXs, enter the token's contract address (CA) and swap ETH for the token.
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⏰ How to prepare for early purchase?
· Wallet first: Install and configure a wallet that supports Robinhood Chain in advance.
· Funds ready: Cross-chain transfer or withdraw ETH to the Robinhood Chain address ahead of time, reserving enough Gas fees.
· Follow official channels: Keep a close eye on Trump's Truth Social, X (Twitter), and Robinhood official announcements.
· Prepare contract address: Obtain the official contract address (CA) immediately after token issuance to avoid buying fake tokens.
· Beware of scams: Do not trust any advance fundraising or presales; official token issuance will not have such steps.
· Risk awareness: If the token is issued, it is most likely a Meme coin with extreme price volatility. Be prepared for total loss and never invest beyond your risk tolerance.
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Currently, this rumor lacks substantial evidence and seems more like a misinterpretation triggered by Robinhood positive news and FOMO resonance in the Chinese community. Before official confirmation, the best preparation is to stay calm, set up your wallet and funds in advance, and wait for facts rather than rumors.#ETH strong rally, short positions liquidated over $1.1 billion
Latest objective data
$ETH strong rally, 24h short liquidations exceed $1.1 billion; current price $2470, resistance at $2600, support at $2280. ETH-ETF continues to see net inflows, contract funding rates rise, high beta characteristics, price movement tied to BTC $78377 market.
Market surface consensus
Massive short liquidations, belief that ETH's main rally has started and will continue to outperform Bitcoin.
Underlying logic analysis
The rise is driven by spot ETF buying combined with short squeeze resonance, with liquidated passive buy orders amplifying the rally. Short-term indicators enter overbought territory, with long leverage accumulating. As the market strengthens, ETH shows greater elasticity; once BTC stagnates, ETH's pullback is also larger than BTC's, so the short squeeze rally should not be mistaken for a one-sided rise without corrections.
Personal view (personal inclination towards a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
The bullish trend is established, but short-term pullback and digestion are needed, so do not chase the highs. Focus on holding the $2280 support and consider participation after a pullback.$TRUMP Is Trump Going to "Issue a Coin" Again? Don't Rush to Understand It as a Second $TRUMP
Currently, the Token promoted by Trump's media is not a cryptocurrency issued for secondary market trading or free trading, but a reward Token.
Simply put, Trump is trying to use blockchain technology to bring the traditional shareholder reward mechanism onto the chain. The core of the Token is not trading but rewards. #Bitcoin posts best weekly performance since March 2023
According to currently disclosed public information, free trading is not explicitly open, it is uncertain whether it will be listed on centralized/decentralized exchanges, and it is uncertain whether a public secondary market will be established. There is also no evidence proving it will become a second TRUMP.
This token means that shareholder equity certificates are being put on-chain, which opens up imaginative space for blockchain technology. As for the future, attention can be paid to whether this token is transferable, tradable, or listed on exchanges.
Another point, the "Clear Act" causes huge conflicts regarding whether the Trump family profits through crypto. If Trump wants to promote the "Clear Act," issuing a coin now would be self-contradictory. Moreover, facing the midterm elections, issuing a coin would give opponents a chance for "political attacks"! $BTC Bitcoin fell from $126K to $57,500
That’s a 54.3% drop
If that was the bottom that would be the shallowest “bear market” in history
Just for some perspective we had a 55% drop during the 2021 bull market.
In other words THIS bear market was SHALLOWER than the 2020 BULL marketMy clearest feeling about the market these past two days is this: capital is starting to spread from BTC to the altcoin market. ETH has been especially fierce in this wave, surging 15%–18% in a single day, XRP is also clearly stronger than the overall market, and popular assets like SOL and HYPE are following the rally. But what truly warrants my caution is not how much a single coin has risen, but that the market's risk appetite is changing. If only BTC was rising alone, I would interpret it as capital clustering. But now it’s: BTC → ETH → XRP → SOL → HYPE → altcoins, showing a clear pattern of capital diffusion. More importantly, the total market cap of altcoins has once again surpassed $1 trillion. What does this mean? I believe the market is entering a very critical phase: either a genuine altcoin rotation is starting, or liquidity is being created for the last batch of chasing funds. Especially presidential concept coins like TRUMP and MELANIA have recently seen amplified volatility due to policy and Trump-related news. HYPE is also continuously in focus because of Trump-related statements and Hyperliquid’s own expectations. So now, don’t jump to the conclusion that “altcoin season is here” just because a coin has risen 20%. Real altcoin season isn’t about a few coins skyrocketing. It’s about BTC stabilizing, ETH remaining strong, mainstream altcoins rotating, capital broadly diffusing, and trading volume continuously expanding. If ETH can continue to outperform BTC, SOL, XRSupporting $AAOI is becoming increasingly difficult, as they keep selling off $50 million or $60 million worth of ATM everywhere.
At some point, the operational outlook might be positive.
But the equity structure/financing is becoming increasingly unfriendly to shareholders.
Really, really hate ATM and constant capital raises, even if they are increasing capacity. ♻️Plain language explanation of ACO allocation logic
The total supply is 1 billion tokens, never issuing one more, so unlike some projects that secretly inflate the supply, your tokens won’t be diluted.
Out of this 1 billion, more than half (55%) is allocated as rewards to ordinary users—just by participating in the ecosystem (such as running nodes or providing liquidity), you can gradually mine tokens based on your contribution. The key point is: the team and private investors did not reserve tokens in advance; all these tokens are "earned" through actual work by everyone, so the chips won’t be concentrated in the hands of a few.
The remaining 25% is managed by the foundation, specifically spent on technology upgrades and global promotion, with every expenditure traceable on-chain; and 20% goes to the team and early supporters, but they must lock their tokens for a very long time and release them slowly bit by bit, absolutely no dumping right after launch. This design is to prevent "whale sell-offs" from crashing the token price, forcing the team to be tied to the ecosystem long-term. Simply put, this mechanism ensures everyone profits from the ecosystem’s growth, rather than cutting each other’s shares. Bitcoin jumped 9% this week. My weekend buy didn't change by a dollar.
It's sized to the CSH Score, not the candle, and the score barely moved: 26, still the bottom quarter of readings since 2011.
Boring is what executing looks like.ETFs are no longer the driving force behind price surges, but are quietly acting as the "foundation"
$BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $68.17 million yesterday, while $ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of $24.16 million. The single-day data is moderate, but the cumulative net positions have reached $53.47 billion and $11.99 billion respectively — institutions haven't exited, they've just changed their stance.
Previously, ETF buying was the fuel for every bullish candle; now this logic has changed. Short-term pricing power is gradually shifting — it could be derivatives trading supported by funding rates, or rotating capital leaning towards altcoins. ETFs have transformed from an "engine" into a "ballast stone," no longer pushing prices upward, but quietly absorbing selling pressure during price consolidation.
This shift is actually healthier. As long as ETFs maintain positive inflows, even if the volume isn't large, it means there is support underneath. The more thorough the turnover accumulation during consolidation, the stronger the momentum for the next breakout.
The real signal is not "buying a lot," but "buying steadily." As long as institutions remain, the trend is not over.$BTC Cryptocurrency supporters sue Illinois, will tax rules change?
💬 You hold Bitcoin, but you might not have thought that a state's tax authorities are watching you
🐋 Just saw the news: According to CoinDesk, cryptocurrency supporters have joined forces to sue Illinois, challenging the state's digital asset tax rules.
🧠 Honestly, the focus of this lawsuit is not about winning or losing, but whether regulators will clarify their stance. Without clear tax standards, institutional funds dare not take heavy positions—compliance costs are too high, and no one wants to step on a landmine.
This is why it matters: regulatory moves don’t directly decide today's price swings, but they determine whether big money dares to enter. Approval opens the door for institutional funds; lawsuits or tightening regulations first kill sentiment.
History repeats: The industry-wide crackdown in 2021 halved the crypto market, but what happened next? It recovered and even hit new highs. Regulation can’t kill the market; it only reshuffles it.
📊 The market is quiet: BTC at $77,999, up 3.9% in 24 hours, fear index at 71, mainstream contract funding rate only 0.01%. Such a low funding rate indicates leverage is not aggressive; sentiment is hot, but no one dares to blindly add positions.
🎯 My view: Don’t rush to take sides or to criticize. Let the market vent its emotions first—the timeline for rule implementation is more important than statements. Institutions have lawyers, whales have information. Ordinary people’s protection comes down to two things: lighter positions and faster information.
💡 So, are you bullish or bearish on this lawsuit? Next, let's do a morning summary of cryptocurrency perspectives based on the news.
Currently, the crypto market continues the risk-on sentiment that has been rising since this week.
Bitcoin briefly surged to a higher level on Friday before pulling back, now slightly consolidating around $77,000; Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin remain relatively stable or slightly positive; OKB shows a more noticeable correction.
The main theme remains the combination of "improved liquidity + regulatory optimism."
The U.S. Treasury announced at least doubling the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, which the market interprets as intervention in long-term interest rates and liquidity injection, helping to lower long-term yields and boost risk assets.
At the same time, after Trump met with crypto industry leaders at the White House, he publicly supported market structure legislation such as the CLARITY Act, strengthening expectations for regulatory clarity. These factors combined triggered large-scale short covering, further amplifying short-term momentum.
On the macro level, the market currently sees reduced short-term rate hike pressure from the Federal Reserve, with short-term interest rate expectations relatively stable, but the long end remains volatile due to fiscal deficits and debt levels. This "eased short end, pressured long end" environment is currently neutral to slightly positive for crypto in the short term, but inflation data and fiscal policy execution still need to be monitored.
Overall, the current crypto market sentiment is dominated by "improved liquidity expectations" and "positive U.S. regulatory signals," but everyone should not be overly optimistic and remain cautious. I personally believe this rally is full of uncertainties and the bull market has not yet returned #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
AI giant Anthropic has delivered major news, planning to submit IPO public documents as early as the end of August, with a fundraising target aiming to match SpaceX's record for the largest IPO in history. If realized, this will rewrite the history of tech fundraising in the U.S. stock market.
The company's fundamentals are sharply polarized. Q2 revenue surged explosively, with annualized revenue reaching $65 billion. Adjusted operating profit has just turned positive, but the burn on computing power remains fierce, and the cumulative historical losses are huge. The private placement valuation in May was 965 billion, while market IPO expectations have already targeted the 1.5–2 trillion range, sparking significant debate over valuation bubbles.
Two possible scenarios for the future:
① Optimistic scenario: The IPO market subscription is booming, the overall risk appetite in the AI sector rises, driving global tech stocks higher, indirectly boosting BTC sentiment. However, huge funds are absorbed by the new stock, making it difficult for incremental capital to flow directly into crypto.
② Cautious scenario: The market questions the high valuation, subscription cools down, the AI sector collectively cuts valuations, risk appetite contracts rapidly, and BTC will bear correction pressure in line with risk assets.
Bi Ge's practical view: Do not overamplify the direct impact of the IPO event. Focus on two things: first, the sentiment trend of the U.S. AI sector; second, whether BTC spot ETF funds show outflows.
Do not blindly bet long or short based on the news. A mega IPO is more about capital redistribution and will not change the original major trend. $BTC surged to around $79,000. The core drivers of this rally are the US Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, a weakening dollar, and about $1.6 billion net inflow into spot ETFs this week. Trump continues to push the CLARITY Act, combined with massive short squeeze liquidations, which directly amplified the gains.
$SOL returned above $93, mainly following the altcoin rotation driven by BTC. Additionally, South Korea's Shinhan Bank partnered with the Solana Foundation to promote tokenized funds, adding another layer of RWA catalyst for SOL.
$OKB held above $100. This round lacked significant independent positive news, more so driven by the overall market recovery and expectations for the X Layer ecosystem. After breaking $100 earlier, funds continue to play, but short-term performance is clearly weaker than BTC and ETH.
$ETH stood above $2,500, outperforming BTC this round. Besides the overall market recovery, funds are also trading stablecoins, RWA, and tokenization narratives. ETH ETF inflows also provided support.
$DOGE and $PEPE's rally reasons are the simplest: after BTC's surge, risk appetite returned, and funds started rotating into high-volatility Meme tokens. DOGE's trading volume significantly increased, and PEPE led the gains at one point, driven more by sentiment and capital flow rather than major project-level positive news. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
This wave of BTC acceleration is driven by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, improved regulatory expectations, ETF capital inflows, and a short squeeze all combined. But it's important to distinguish that a large part of the rise comes from passive short position liquidations; this kind of short squeeze buying is unsustainable. How far the market can go depends mainly on whether spot capital can take over.
Currently, market sentiment has entered the greed zone, and short-term indicators are clearly overbought. Once the short positions are fully cleared, if ETF net inflows quickly shrink and new active buying can't keep up, a large amount of short-term profit-taking will flee, making the market prone to a round of pullback and consolidation.
There are two clear paths ahead:
① Capital relay: ETF net inflows continue, key support levels hold on pullbacks, and rebounds have a chance to push to new highs.
② Volume gap: capital inflows weaken, macro data releases more hawkish signals, and the market returns to a range-bound digestion of gains.
Internal Fed rate hike disagreements have not been resolved; bearish factors are only temporarily dormant, not gone for good.
In practice, do not chase highs; positions can be taken profit on in batches; do not rush to enter from empty positions, prioritize waiting for pullbacks to stabilize before seeking opportunities. A sharp rise does not equal a confirmed bull market; all optimism must be validated by capital data.Analysis of Total Liquidation Volume Across the Network (August 22, 10:11)
Data Source: CoinGlass, SoSoValue; for market review only, not investment advice
In the past 24 hours, the total contract liquidation across the network reached $111 million, showing a pattern of both long and short liquidations; short liquidations amounted to $57.338 million, long liquidations $54.1218 million, with liquidation scales for longs and shorts basically balanced. The previous large-scale short squeeze phase has ended.
Liquidation by Coin
- BTC: 24h total liquidation of $34.62 million, shorts slightly higher than longs; after the previous large-scale short liquidations, new long positions at high levels have started to accumulate, and spike pullbacks may trigger long liquidation risks.
- ETH: 24h total liquidation of $31.33 million, liquidations synchronized with the overall market, liquidation scale second only to BTC, with ETH leveraged positions continuously increasing.
- Altcoin MEME (SOL, DOGE, etc.) combined liquidation approximately $45 million; small-cap leveraged positions show amplified volatility, with stronger liquidation transmission effects during spikes.
Market Interpretation
1. The previous rally phase was dominated by short liquidations; now it has shifted to both long and short liquidations, indicating the market has entered a high-level oscillation and shakeout phase.
2. Short-term 1-hour liquidation has fallen back to the million-dollar level, with no concentrated chain liquidations, so leverage risk is temporarily controllable.
3. Open interest remains high; as long as prices deviate significantly from the current range, a new round of chain liquidations will be triggered, amplifying market volatility. $BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ BTC and ETH Spot ETF Real-Time Data Analysis as of 10:09 on August 22
Data Source: CoinGlass, SoSoValue; for market review only, not investment advice
$BTC Spot ETF
Total net inflow at the close of August 21 Eastern Time was $9.3426 million, with FBTC, ARKB, and BITB as the main inflow targets. IBIT saw a slight outflow, indicating internal institutional differentiation and no longer unanimous one-sided buying.
Total ETF holdings remain high, with the rhythm of consecutive days of net inflows paused. Pre-market buying strength has significantly weakened. After price surges, some institutions began to take small profits, incremental funds slowed, but no large-scale concentrated redemptions occurred, and bottom support still exists.
$ETH Spot ETF
Capital performance is stronger than BTC, recording a total net inflow of $341 million yesterday. All 9 ETFs recorded net inflows with no outflow targets; FETH (Fidelity) +$118 million, ETHA (BlackRock) +$109 million, are the two main inflow products.
Continuous positive capital inflows for multiple days indicate increased institutional willingness to allocate to the ETH sector. Total ETF net asset value is $30.576 billion, accounting for 5.22% of ETH's total market value, becoming an important capital driver in this rebound.
Summary
BTC ETF shows divergence at high levels with weakening incremental momentum; ETH ETF funds remain strong. Institutional funds are switching sectors, with some capital shifting from BTC to ETH. Note: U.S. stock markets have not yet opened, and pre-market data may fluctuate. $AAVE is restructuring liquidity in the funding pool through high-yield collateral sedimentation and automatic repurchase. V4 deposits have risen to $400 million and operate in parallel with V3 maintaining a $19.4 billion TVL. With a 100% revenue repurchase mechanism, over 205,000 tokens have been repurchased, continuously absorbing spot selling pressure. If credit assets like HINC successfully integrate with Horizon, incremental capital inflows will continue to boost the protocol's fee capture efficiency. Going forward, it is necessary to observe whether the lending pool TVL shrinks and whether the protocol's weekly fee income falls below the $6 million threshold.
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to a 19-year high, yet the dollar fell to a 3-month low: the market is starting to worry about something else.
The US Dollar Index dropped to around 98.6 on Monday this week, marking a three-month low.
At the same time, the 30-year US Treasury yield hit a high of 5.34%, the highest level since 2007.
These two figures together are worth noting.
Normally, when US Treasury yields rise, the dollar tends to be supported because holding dollar assets offers higher returns.
But this time, despite the high long-term bond yields, the dollar continues to weaken.
The market is reassessing the US fiscal situation.
US public debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest payments around $1.2 trillion this year. The Treasury has just increased the repurchase scale of some 10-30 year Treasuries from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, and Bassett even indicated that this could be further expanded.
The bond market is sending a very direct signal:
Investors demand higher yields to accept long-term Treasuries;
The government is actively easing pressure on the long end;
Ultimately, some of this pressure begins to reflect on the dollar exchange rate.
This is also an important backdrop for the recent simultaneous strength in gold and BTC.
If the combination of "high US Treasury yields but a continuing decline in the dollar" persists, concerns about the dollar's creditworthiness and purchasing power will intensify, amplifying the long-term narrative for scarce assets like gold and BTC.
Will the Treasury continue to ramp up repurchases, and will the market start treating the 98 level as a new key defensive line for the US Dollar Index?Bitcoin's long-term low volatility pattern was suddenly broken, with BTC/USDT strongly breaking through the $75,000 mark, simultaneously triggering one of the largest short liquidation waves of the year. Data shows that within 24 hours, the estimated total liquidation amount of leveraged cryptocurrency positions across the network approached $3 billion, highlighting the intense market turbulence. Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $517 million on August 19, and the Ethereum ETF also attracted about $189 million in capital. The dual effect of short positions being forcibly closed and institutional capital returning has become the key catalyst accelerating this breakout rally. The core question in the market now is: is this purely a short squeeze rally, or the beginning of a new sustainable recovery? While the liquidation mechanism can quickly push prices up in the short term, it does not guarantee sustained buying momentum afterward. For the bull market thesis to truly hold, spot trading volume, ETF capital inflows, and stablecoin liquidity must all maintain healthy levels after the initial hype fades. It is worth cautioning that if traders quickly rebuild leveraged long positions, the market may face the risk of another sharp correction. At present, this breakout has constructive significance technically, but the real confirmation signal must come from sustained spot buying support rather than relying solely on liquidation-driven momentum. Investors should closely monitor changes in capital flows to judge whether the market can smoothly transition from a "short squeeze rebound" to a "demand-driven" substantive pattern.📊 Risk warning: Let's talk about several common misunderstandings people have about quantitative investing:
1️⃣ The essential difference between quantitative investing and subjective investing is just one thing: whether the decision-maker is a human or code. Quantitative investing is a science, pursuing the optimal solution; subjective investing is an art, relying on intuition.
2️⃣ It's incorrect to say quantitative investing only profits from technical traders; fundamental analysis can also be used in quantitative strategies. It's also wrong to say quantitative investing ignores individual stocks; the QuantCube team has many individual stock researchers.
3️⃣ Before 2017, quantitative investing was basically multi-factor strategies. All hedge funds were focused on discovering factors; whoever had more effective factors could earn more money. After 2017, AI began to enter the quantitative investing field, various quantitative strategies matured, and quantitative investing evolved from single-strategy quant to multi-strategy quant.
4️⃣ The greatest significance of quantitative investing is improving market efficiency; however, increased market efficiency is actually disadvantageous to individual investors because quant strategies compress the survival space for individual investors.
So next time you hear someone say they don't invest in A-shares because the A-share market isn't as efficient as the Hong Kong or US stock markets, just classify them as idiots.Let's do a simple summary of this morning's market.
For Bitcoin, there is basically no clear direction to trade yet; currently, we are just waiting for a signal. Personally, I think this wave will probably challenge 80000, but it might just miss by a wick, then enter a new consolidation range. After all, a bull market likely won't just keep rising straight up like this.
For Ethereum, I mentioned yesterday that its trend is relatively stronger compared to Bitcoin. Sure enough, it broke through 2500 early this morning, reaching a high near 2550. In the short term, there is still no clear direction. The next resistance is at 3000, but whether it can go straight to 3000 or just miss by a wick is hard to say. I will let everyone know once there is a direction.
For Solana, the resistance remains around 100, and there are no good short-term opportunities. Everyone should continue to observe.
Doge (Dogecoin) has been rising steadily without signs of weakness. Don't short it lightly now; wait for a signal before trading. The next resistance level in this wave can be seen at 0.11.
OKB has nothing special; it is oscillating within a range. You can continue to buy regularly with fixed amounts.
Overall, the market is a bit overheated now, so it's hard to grasp the trend. What we need to do is wait for the right timing before making a move. In the current market, opening a position casually can easily get stopped out by wicks. If there is a new direction in the future, I will report to everyone immediately.$BTC
Market sentiment is really strong, Bitcoin has surged wildly to around 80,000, and the group chats that were silent before have all become active these past few days. It might not be appropriate to pour cold water at this moment, but I still want to share my judgment.
I think this rally looks more like a return to Bitcoin's valuation. Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 last October, firstly due to the 1011 black swan event, and secondly because it was continuously drained by the US stock market. Now the Treasury has announced repurchasing long-term bonds, and Bassett said the scale will be increased. As long-term bond yields fall, the market is revaluing risk assets — and Bitcoin and gold are the most direct hedges against a weakening dollar and inflation.
There are two reasons that make me cautious:
1⃣ The positive factors behind this rise are actually not strong enough, as I mentioned in previous tweets. Also, Bitcoin ETFs saw a total inflow of over 1.6 billion this week, the best week since 2026; Ethereum ETFs had a single-day net inflow of 220 million on August 20, also the best day this year. The strength of the funds driving this rally is powerful, and just saying it's Wall Street doesn't seem very convincing to me.
2⃣ Cycle patterns. Historically, the time from the bull market peak to the bear market bottom is usually about a year. We have only passed 10 months since last October; moreover, this round's correction is much smaller than the previous two rounds. It can be said that the market structure has changed — traditional capital participation, regulatory intervention, further differentiation between mainstream and altcoins — but I still feel that 57,000 does not look like the bottom for this cycle