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There was a small rebound last night, and platform coins also rose!
$BNB around 728, 24h +0.6%, a ballast stone, driven by the depth of the BNB Chain ecosystem rather than speculative heat, not very elastic to drops, a typical defensive type.
$HYPE around 79, 24h +1%, funding rate +0.008%, longs are paying, indicating some are still betting on the bulls. Continuous burns + protocol revenue verified money printing narrative remains intact, the only one among the three with real cash flow.
$OKB around 114, dropped 4.5% on 10/15, the weakest, highly correlated with BTC purely following the market, eagerly waiting for ecosystem catalysts, otherwise just a volatile follower.
Platform coins are about cash flow; HYPE has the strongest logic, BNB is defensive, OKB is waiting for the wind.When prices fall, the group chat is full of "It's over," "The bull market is over," "It will halve again"... 😂 Yet very few actually dare to buy.
But once prices rise for several consecutive days and break through a key level, the moments on Moments and Weibo instantly become lively, with target prices shouted from 80,000 directly to 100,000, 120,000, fearing missing the next big surge.
Fear when prices fall, rush when they rise. 🤷
$BTC is currently fluctuating around 82,000-83,500, basically holding above the 50-day moving average near 80,600. Support below is seen at 80,000-81,000, with resistance above at 85,000.
$ETH is consolidating around 2,400, holding the 200-day moving average near 2,345, with short-term resistance at 2,480-2,500. The overall structure is intact but momentum is moderate; an effective breakout is needed to open a major direction.
Looking at a longer timeline, Bitcoin indeed rose more than 40% in Q3, and ETFs previously saw large capital inflows. Although short-term disruptions from the Fed meeting and inflation data exist, the long-term supply and demand pattern has not worsened.
True opportunities often hide when everyone else dares not touch them. Waiting until the market heats up to chase usually means prices are already expensive.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 $BTC ETF brought in $527 million yesterday! Don't get too excited!!!
Brothers, seeing the ETF net inflow of $527 million yesterday, do you think the big coin is stable?
Don't be silly! Look closely, it's all BlackRock buying, while the others are actually quietly selling!
The main force is pulling up the price to absorb chips while covering for retail investors to enter and lift the price. As a result, the market corrected directly today, and those who chased high yesterday are fully trapped!
Now the technical side continues to weaken, and the rebound is completely powerless. At this time, don't impulsively chase longs; the main force may reverse and smash the market at any time. This is a perfect opportunity for us to short on rallies and take short-term profits!
Still continuing today's morning strategy, a weak rebound is a good time to open shorts! The first target is the 80000 integer mark, the second target is 78000!
$ZEC $SOL #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ It's really brutal; Korean stocks are once again being jointly sold short by foreign institutional investors. Hynix has already been halved in this panic atmosphere. Can it recover after this combined beating?
This drop really can't be blamed on Hynix. It's not due to poor performance; it's hurt by rising crude oil prices. High interest rates have caused a global tech stock crash + collective withdrawal by foreign institutions + emotional stampede, creating this tragedy.
This drop has little to do with Hynix itself. The main reasons are threefold:
1. Crude oil is the master switch, putting pressure on U.S. bonds. The Korean stock market is one of the markets with the highest foreign ownership, so foreign institutions are collectively fleeing.
From September to October, foreign investors net sold 12 trillion KRW worth of Hynix shares, directly halving Hynix’s price. The collective selling pressure was too much for retail investors to absorb.
2. The previous 55 trillion KRW semiconductor stock buyback plan that supported the stock price has now officially ended, with no follow-up support.
3. Global memory stocks are collectively falling. Hynix is a leveraged amplified version; with SanDisk and Micron collapsing in succession, and Hynix being the HBM leader, the combined effect is even more severe.
To recover in the short term:
First, crude oil must fall.
Second, U.S. bond yields must decline.
Third, foreign capital must gradually return.
In the long term, recovery is just a matter of time because this is an emotion-driven drop caused by crude oil staying above 100, creating pressure. Once energy inflation from crude oil eases, capital will slowly flow back.
Because Hynix’s industry position remains, its performance is gradually improving, and AI computing power is shifting from training to inference, storage demand will expand again. So a rebound is just a matter of time.
In the short term, expect Hynix to fluctuate, consolidate, and form a bottom. In the long term, Hynix is still a buy and expected to rise.
Currently, Hynix is priced at 917, and it’s perfectly feasible to slowly go long with 3x leverage, buying in batches at 900-850-800. The cycle won’t be too long since it’s already on the Nasdaq spaceship.#Strive large-scale accumulation, Strategy's buyback scale exceeds coin purchases
In the past, these companies would just mindlessly buy once they got the money, but now each has a completely different plan.
First, look at Strive, a typical aggressive player. In one week, they swept up another 4,045 BTC, with total holdings approaching 37,000 BTC. Their CEO is very straightforward, aiming to continuously increase the coin content per share. This move is actually very clever, equivalent to using a traditional company's shell to indirectly add BTC leverage for shareholders.
Next, look at the Ethereum whale BitMine, which follows an interest-earning strategy. They increased their holdings by over 12,000 ETH, with total holdings accounting for nearly 5% of the entire Ethereum circulating supply. The most ruthless part is that most of these are staked, earning on both ends—benefiting from coin price appreciation and network interest.
The most interesting is the veteran player Strategy. This week, they symbolically bought only 267 BTC but then spent $193 million to buy back their preferred shares. What does this indicate? It shows that large funds are starting to be more calculated at this stage. Under the current macro environment, the cost-effectiveness of buying coins is temporarily not as high as buying back their own stock to stabilize the base.
Whether they continue aggressive buying, earn interest, or do buybacks, at least it shows institutional funds are still in this pool, not completely withdrawing, just finding different ways to weather this winter. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC $ETH $ZEC
### Sectors Where Funds Are Concentrating
1. **Privacy Coin Sector**: This sector has the highest fund attention today. ZEC and XMR are clearly attracting capital. Funds tend to favor this sector as a safe haven narrative; when the overall market is unstable, funds like to hide here, with frequent pulse-like movements.
2. **AI Computing Power Sector**: Funds are making small back-and-forth trades, such as TAO and WLD. This is intermittent rotation; after a rise, a pullback is common, and sustainability is generally limited.
3. **Storage Sector** (the $FIL you care about): Only a small amount of short-term funds are playing here. It’s leftover capital making minor moves, not a main theme. There was a rally a few days ago, but most funds have now withdrawn. It can only passively rebound with the overall market and struggles to strengthen independently.
4. **SOL Ecosystem Small Coins**: A small number of speculative funds are quickly entering and exiting. These small coins show strong explosive potential but also heavy dumping, making them very risky.
### Simple Summary
Currently, market funds are conservative. Most funds are either watching or hiding in privacy coins for safety, with no major leading sectors. Storage $FIL is just a secondary rotation, not the main focus of current funds. In this market, avoid chasing high-priced altcoins; rotations are too fast, and it’s easy to buy at the top.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 #芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 1.61%, ending an eight-day losing streak, with memory stocks leading the gains. But Old Mo says this is an oversold rebound, not a reversal.
Barclays bluntly states that the "best phase" of AI trading is over. The core problem lies in financing: cloud providers' capital expenditure next year is about 1.2 trillion, at least 35% of which must come from bond issuance. CoreWeave's bond yields have soared to 15%. Goldman Sachs warns that if credit tightens, the semiconductor industry may face an "order cliff" in the next two years. This week's earnings reports from Meta and others will be the litmus test—the market wants monetization, not just promises.
BTC current price is about 82,200, with support at 81,400-81,700 and resistance at 83,000. For those with positions, set stop-loss below 80,500; for those without positions, wait for a pullback to support with reduced volume to stabilize before entering—don't chase the rally.
Whether the AI market can continue depends not on K-lines but on earnings reports. What do you think? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 📊 Daily Brief｜October 20, 2026
🌐 Market: Total market cap around $2.84 trillion, BTC Dominance about 57.7%, funds still favor BTC. BTC around $82K–83K, currently testing the key level you’re watching at $82,800. The market overall has shifted from a decline to a consolidation and recovery phase.
💰 Volume/Funds: Recent 24h total market turnover is about $60–75 billion, still not reaching the sustained volume needed for a full-scale rally. BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $229 million last week, but on October 19 suddenly had a net inflow of $526.7 million, showing a clear improvement in funding.
📈 Phase: Bull Score 57/100; Altcoin Season 57/100;
Assessment = Early bull/recovery preparation phase. Altcoins are spreading but have not yet reached the true altcoin season standard of 75 points.
🚀 Potential Coin: PONS.
💡 Quote of the day: The ETF has already turned around, but the price hasn’t fully caught up yet; 82,800 is the threshold, 90,000 is the starting gun — currently, you should position early, but it’s not yet time to go all in.Both BTC and ETH are recovering, but ETF funds have not yet turned around together
BTC returned to around $82,000 in early trading, and ETH is hovering around $2,400. It looks like both have stabilized a bit, but I don't want to call this small rebound a reversal just yet.
Looking at the most recent full trading week (October 12–16), the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $228.4 million, and the ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $320.1 million. The direction is the same—outflows; the intensity differs, with ETH outflows exceeding BTC by about $91.7 million. At least for now, there’s no sign that "institutions have come back to buy"; it seems more like prices have stopped falling first, while funds remain cautious. ETF flows don’t represent the entire market’s capital, but they are an important buying force in this rally and can’t be ignored.
I will watch two things: whether BTC can hold $82,000 and reclaim $83,000, and whether ETH can get back above $2,450; then see if ETFs continuously turn to net inflows. Price recovery followed by capital inflow makes the rebound more credible. Otherwise, I’d rather do less and not mistake a stop in the decline for a market reversal.
Do you think the buying has returned first this time, or have the shorts just taken a breather?
$BTC #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ $ETH $SOL $ETH is running, but the three run differently, don't treat it as the same thing.
$BTC: Fidelity FBTC outflow of 83.63 million, BlackRock IBIT inflow of 665 million, net inflow of 527 million overall — selling pressure hasn't disappeared, it's just been absorbed. 81823 is the most honest level; only if it recovers can we talk about the continuation of the rebound, failure to recover means consolidation and consumption between 80781.
ETH is the most worrisome: Fidelity's retreat is more decisive than BTC's, institutions are reducing positions rather than waiting; supported at 2380–2390, moving averages at 2410–2430 are pressing down, each high is lower than the last, capital pressure is structural — sellers are more urgent than buyers.
$SOL is the most conflicted: ETF outflow is the smallest, yet the price is pressed near 100, 50-day EMA at 106.73 is the ceiling, 200-day EMA at 98.61 is the last defense; on-chain active addresses hit a 13-month high, daily new wallets 1.7 million, but ETF is still withdrawing — more users but less investment, this divergence means either the ETF is mistaken or the price will capitulate first.
In 24 hours, long positions exploded to 104 million, short positions were also liquidated; don't believe "it should rise after falling too much" under this two-way squeeze. Macro-wise, the probability of no action in October is about 79%, but tail risks of rate hikes remain after CPI and PPI exceeded expectations. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ TSMC's earnings report shows truly strong growth, but there is also a notable change to watch.
In Q3 2026, net profit increased by 68.7% year-over-year, revenue reached $46.72 billion, up 41.2% year-over-year, with earnings per ADR at $4.60.
Advanced processes of 7nm and below have contributed 79% of wafer revenue, with 2nm accounting for 8%.
More importantly, TSMC expects Q4 revenue to reach $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, even higher than Q3. This indicates that demand for AI and advanced processes remains very strong.
However, profit margins are starting to face pressure.
Q3 gross margin was 66.4%, which, although significantly higher year-over-year, declined by 1.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The main reason is the cost from ramping up 2nm capacity, and upcoming overseas factory costs will continue to have an impact.
My view is that TSMC currently does not lack demand; the real test is whether it can massively expand production while maintaining profit margins.
The Q4 gross margin guidance is 65%–67%. Let's see if they can hold steady!
Long-term, I remain optimistic about TSMC.
$TSM #USStocks #TSMC #EarningsReport $UNI futures have officially launched on CME, offering two contract sizes and supporting 24/7 trading. However, as everyone knows, the market had already priced in the positive news in advance. On September 22, the day the futures were announced, UNI surged nearly 20%. Nevertheless, this event remains symbolic. It not only adds a token contract to a traditional exchange but also enables institutions to express their price views on DeFi assets through standardized derivatives. The relatively standardized rules, margin, and clearing processes of futures may improve price discovery in some markets and transmit to the UNI spot market.$ETH is running, but the three behave differently, don't treat it as the same thing.
$BTC: Fidelity FBTC outflow of 83.63 million, BlackRock IBIT inflow of 665 million, net inflow of 527 million overall — selling pressure hasn't disappeared, it has been absorbed. 81823 is the most honest level; only if it recovers can we talk about the continuation of the rebound, failure to recover means consolidation and consumption between 80781.
ETH is the most worrisome: Fidelity's retreat is more decisive than BTC, institutions are reducing positions rather than waiting; supported at 2380–2390, moving averages at 2410–2430 are pressing down, each high is lower than the last, capital pressure is structural — sellers are more urgent than buyers.
$SOL is the most conflicted: ETF outflow is the smallest, yet price is pressed near 100, 50-day EMA at 106.73 is resistance, 200-day EMA at 98.61 is the last defense; on-chain active addresses hit a 13-month high, daily new wallets 1.7 million, but ETF is still withdrawing — more users but less investment, this divergence means either ETF is mistaken or price will capitulate first.
In 24 hours, long positions exploded by 104 million, short positions were also cut, don't believe "after falling a lot it should rise." Macro-wise, the probability of no action in October is about 79%, but after CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, the risk of the rate hike tail has not been cleared.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ The corporate treasury narrative of $SOL (DAT) recently had a rather interesting counterexample 🧐
On October 19, SkyAI disclosed that the company has sold all its SOL holdings and is now holding a large amount of cash to prepare for a stock buyback.
This move is somewhat dramatic 😂
A few years ago, when the crypto treasury concept was booming, listed companies competed to stuff BTC and SOL onto their balance sheets, as if just buying coins could conveniently gain a valuation premium in the capital market.
But now, some companies are starting to do the opposite...
Actually, it's not hard to understand. When a company thinks buying back its own stock is more cost-effective, continuing to hold coins may not be the best capital allocation.
Of course, one company's decision doesn't represent the entire industry; but at least it reminds us that corporate treasury coin holdings demand can also change.
Public companies ultimately have to do the economic math; storytelling can't go on forever.
#MSCI新规冲击财库股，Strategy公开反对 @OKX星球 Hold on to the AAPL cash cow, holding good companies will bring good returns, steady rise $AAPL $ARB broke below the previous low, no buying for now
The 5-minute candle for ARB just closed at 0.19088 USDT, already below the low of the past few hours at 0.19232 USDT. I don't plan to buy at this level because the price is below the lower boundary of the range, and the reference high of 0.20074 is currently out of reach; the short-term structure is weak.
The recent 15-minute spot trading volume is about 3.12 times the average per 15 minutes over the previous 3 hours, while the price dropped 1.21%. The volume-increasing downward candle makes me more inclined to wait and see rather than chase a rebound.
My approach is: wait for the next 5-minute close to move back above 0.19232 USDT before reassessing long opportunities. Chasing shorts now is uncomfortable since the price has already dropped significantly and there is no new reference point below.Large orders are densely placed in the US stock market, with storage and semiconductors becoming new focal points. Where exactly are the buy and sell prices?
#芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？
On October 20, 53 addresses on the US stock contract chain placed 77 sets of positions involving million-dollar-level large related or one-sided orders. From adding shorts/reducing positions near the current price to buying in batches at deeper pullbacks, different targets show their own price ranges. The storage and semiconductor sectors have already shown near-term signals.
Why focus on the storage and semiconductor sectors?
1. Storage has long been a key focus of smart money on-chain: Micron (MU), SanDisk (SNDK), SK Hynix (SKHX/SKHY) repeatedly show large-scale switches between long and short, profit-taking sell orders, and low-level batch buying; SOXL and DRAM often accompany.
2. After sector pullbacks and rebounds, combined with AI demand and supply-demand gaps, order placements are active but transactions sparse, reflecting intentions and pressure rather than full-scale firing.
Key focus going forward:
$MU rebounds near about $900, with historical low-level buying usually between $800-$950;
$SNDK ranges between $1300-$1370, with profit-taking and buying coexisting above and below;
$SKHY near $900-$940, historically there are buy orders 7%-11% below current price and sell orders above for reducing positions.
Trading suggestions:
Keep a close watch on dense order zones and open interest for MU, SNDK, SKHX.
If adding shorts/reducing positions near current price, then reduce positions and observe; if price falls to historical buying zones, then try small batch testing.
Single trade risk ≤ 2% of total capital, set stop loss. $CL Mainstream, Korean stocks, US stocks, the top 20 by market cap are mostly in the red, all declining across the board?
Only crude oil hasn't fallen; institutional funds are moving to hedge. This shock is expected to have a significant impact.
The Korean stock market has suffered a heavy blow, tech stocks are under pressure, there is clear divergence within the US stock market, and the crypto market also needs to be wary of a chain reaction. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain high, reflecting ongoing tensions in the Middle East and risks to energy supply.
What does this mean?
First, the market is beginning to reassess risk. When inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks coexist, capital may reduce exposure to high-volatility assets.
Second, high crude oil prices may increase inflationary pressure. If energy prices continue to rise, the Federal Reserve's room to cut rates may be limited, which is unfavorable for the crypto market.
Third, Bitcoin cannot be analyzed solely by its own candlestick chart. If global risk appetite continues to decline and institutional funds reduce risk exposure, the crypto space may also be dragged down The earnings report battle royale continues with $META this time.
The earnings report is due early morning on the 22nd Beijing time, and my pick is Yes: GAAP EPS above $6.31.
What I’m bullish on is still its advertising business.
Last quarter revenue grew 28%, ad impressions grew 14%, and average ad price grew 12%. More ads sold and prices rising give me more confidence than just hearing AI stories.
But flipping to the profit page, it’s not so easy.
Last quarter EPS was $6.18, and operating margin dropped from 43% year-over-year to 31%. Revenue is growing fast, but expenses are growing faster.
This includes $2.4 billion in litigation-related costs and $1.18 billion in severance fees.
My Yes bet is that ad growth can continue, and the pressure from these costs will ease, allowing profits to recover a bit. This is my judgment, not the company saying these costs won’t happen again.
From $6.18 to $6.31 looks like just $0.13 difference, but it’s not just about selling a bit more ads to get there. AI-related depreciation, labor costs, or new litigation expenses could eat up that margin.
So this time I’m not calling it stable, nor am I boosting myself with “long-term bullish on Meta.” The question is only about this quarter’s GAAP EPS; let’s see if it passes when the results come out 😂
#OKX US Earnings Season #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
[Volume and Market Observation]
Many people can't help but call for a reversal when they see a rebound, but the persistent outflow of ETFs remains a thorn hanging overhead. Whether this rebound can go far hinges on this core contradiction.
ETFs are currently the most direct channel for institutional entry. Continuous net outflows indicate that mainstream institutions have not increased their positions in this rebound; instead, they are reducing positions to realize profits during the rebound window. This means that this rally is more driven by leverage repair and short covering on the contract side, rather than solid new institutional buying support. It is a stock game market with a relatively weak foundation.
The current market sentiment is conflicted—fearful of missing out but hesitant to take heavy positions. Short-term bulls push prices based on sentiment, but as soon as there is slight resistance above, selling pressure easily emerges. Relying solely on retail investors and leveraged funds, it is difficult to sustain a large, continuous rebound.
To see the market go further, two signals must be closely watched: first, ETF funds turning from outflows to stable net inflows; second, easing macro pressure from U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar. Before these two signals appear, the rebound is better regarded as a correction within a range rather than a trend reversal to chase higher.
Key observation points: daily ETF fund flows, performance under key resistance levels above, Federal Reserve officials' speeches, and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The South Korean stock market learned a lesson today: KOSPI fell more than 4% intraday to 5512 points, SK Hynix dropped about 7%, Samsung fell about 6%.
What’s even more painful is the comparison. SK Hynix closed at 2.919 million KRW on June 22, today it’s 1.214 million, down 58% in just over four months; but compared to early December last year at 538,000 KRW, it’s still up 126%. The same stock, two calculations, two stories.
KOSPI dropped from the June high of 9114 to 5512, a -40% decline. Some say it’s a programmatic sell-off after storage price peaks, not a fundamental deterioration. But there are only two variables: whether storage prices will turn around and whether the Korean won will remain stable.
$EWYB $BTCThose who bought at the top are no longer selling. The proportion of people who bought BTC 6-12 months ago and sold it on exchanges has dropped from 40.4% to 4.4% (CryptoQuant October data), a 90% decrease in 5 months. But the price is still stuck around 81,500: it surged to 83,000 within 24 hours but was pushed back by sell walls, with a total liquidation of $335 million across the network. CryptoQuant puts it bluntly: this group stopping selling is just like releasing the brake; for the price to rise, new buyers are needed, and new buyers haven't entered yet. This week, Meta and Tesla earnings reports are concentrated, and next week is the FOMC meeting, so money is on hold. My stance: cautiously bullish and watching; the clearing of sell pressure above 80,000 is a bottoming signal, but I won't chase without incremental funds. Will you wait for a breakout above 83,000 to get in, or buy on a pullback to 80,000?
$BTC #BTC行情 #欧意星球 #加密市场$BTC has fallen back below $82,000 again, and the quality of the market rebound is being tested.
From previously breaking below $80,000, to rebounding and hitting $83,000, and now falling back to around $81,700, Bitcoin has yet to break out of a true trend reversal.
A typical "positive rebound, profit-taking" scenario: the short-term Fed rate hike expectations have cooled, which indeed gives risk assets a breather, but the market is clearly not ready to reprice a bull market.
What’s more noteworthy is that BTC encountered selling pressure near $83,000 during the previous rebound, indicating that trapped positions and short-term profit-taking funds are still waiting to exit.
Meanwhile, high U.S. Treasury yields, rising oil prices combined with geopolitical risks, make global capital increasingly cautious about high-volatility assets.
Currently, $82,000 has become a short-term battleground between bulls and bears; if it cannot firmly hold above $83,000, the rebound space will likely remain limited.
The $81,000 level is a recent key support; if it breaks effectively, the $80,000 psychological level will be tested again.
However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. After continuous adjustments, some leveraged risks have been released, and the market is not without the possibility of regaining upward momentum. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ Tech stocks rebound, and Amazon single-handedly revived the mood.
On Monday, the Nasdaq rose +1.11%, with Amazon leading the charge: +4.98% closing at $262.45, adding about $134.3 billion in market value in one day.
The trigger was Morgan Stanley: top pick, target price raised from $335 to $350, expecting AWS to grow 47% year-over-year by 2027.
On the same day, they also launched a big move: the open-source tool TorchNeuron. With just one configuration change in PyTorch code, it can run on their self-developed Trainium chip, already with over 30 early customers.
In the short term, this is a valuation re-rating story; in the long term, it’s the first shot from a cloud provider challenging Nvidia’s software ecosystem. But on the other hand: last week, hedge funds’ net selling proportion of tech stocks hit a record high, and the debts and burn rates of AI are not yet accounted for.
I think this is a dual catalyst of "expectation + sentiment repair." Whether it becomes a trend depends on whether AWS can deliver real cash and results — the invalidation point: if AWS’s growth next quarter falls short of expectations, or Trainium remains only a pilot without scaling, the story falls apart.
Is this the start of Amazon’s valuation re-rating, or just the leader of an oversold rebound?
$AMZN $NVDA
#TechStocksRebound #AIChip$BNB: The shock absorber in the portfolio. The underlying logic is the gas consumption and buyback expectations of X Layer, while CZ continues to promote the BNB phone as the ecosystem entry point. Around 720 feels more like ecosystem depth pricing, not driven by sentiment surges, with limited pullbacks and difficult explosive upward moves, suitable for holding.
$HYPE: A cash flow-driven deflationary machine. Yesterday, another 11,300 tokens were burned, totaling 49.63 million tokens, accounting for 4.96% of total supply, worth about $3.9 billion at current prices; 30-day protocol revenue of $69.94 million all goes into the burn pool. Around $78, it is the only one among the three that simultaneously achieves sustained deflation and revenue validation, solid.
$OKB: Currently lacks its own story. Funding rate is -0.0014%, bears have the upper hand, open interest only 30.7 million, in the 30th percentile over three weeks, showing cold willingness to open positions. Correlation with BTC is 0.85, price basically follows the overall market. Waiting for ecosystem transformation catalyst, otherwise just oscillating alongside the market.Gold to surge to 4300 in a week? I bet No, with a total of 500 XP.
The account shows a profit, but my logic hasn't changed, and I have three reasons👇
1️⃣ Not enough room. The current price is still over three points away from 4,300. Gold only makes such a one-sided move in a week during major events, like sudden geopolitical conflicts or unexpected hawkish/dovish moves from central banks. There’s nothing that big on this week’s calendar.
2️⃣ High levels cause hesitation. Gold prices have been fluctuating at high levels for several weeks, and every surge faces profit-taking. Around 4,200 is the first barrier, 4,300 is a psychological round number; breaking both in one week is unlikely.
3️⃣ The odds make sense. Selling No at 92¢ means the market only gives about a 10% chance of "touching" it, and I think the real probability is even lower. This position is meant to be low-volatility and steady profit, not a bet for doubling.
The current -3.9% is just market sentiment wobbling, not the final result. As long as the weekly high doesn’t hit 4,300, each contract will settle at 1 XP at expiration, so these 500 XP will return about 540, making roughly an 8% gain.
I’ve also thought through the biggest risk: if a major risk-off event happens midweek and gold spikes, this position will hurt. So I only used part of my XP, not fully invested.
Do you think gold will reach 4300 this week? ETF bought 520 million, but BTC can't even hold 82K, whose face is this data slapping?
Today I saw an extremely conflicting set of data.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net inflow of 526.64 million USD, the largest in three weeks. BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed 665.2 million, carrying the entire ETF group's inflow. Last week it was still a net outflow of 549 million; overnight, institutions seem like they've changed.
But what about BTC? It surged to 83,000, then was pushed back to 81,800. The Coinbase premium index dropped to -0.141, a new low since the end of June; US buying pressure simply can't hold. Liquidation data also flipped: longs liquidated 104 million, shorts 84.12 million, bulls are being liquidated again.
Institutions are buying, price isn't rising, and the liquidations are still on the long side. This indicates that the ETF inflows are being absorbed by even larger sell orders, possibly miners, whales, or longs trapped last week cutting losses.
My long position is still holding. This ETF inflow data is the only reason I can still convince myself to "wait a bit longer" today.
But if BTC can't hold above 82,300 tomorrow, that reason will be gone.
ETF bought 500 million, price doesn't move an inch, who do you think is selling?
Is part of it you?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Observing $ZEC over the past month, its market pattern is very clear. The most typical point: it often experiences a surge during the Asian early trading session from 6 to 9 AM Beijing time.
Why choose this time? From a liquidity perspective, at this time European and American funds are resting, the order book depth is thin, and it doesn't take much capital to move the price, which is a typical case of "using a small force to move a big weight." Previously, the price rose from 900 to 1699 mainly due to a short squeeze, relying on blowing out a large number of short positions, with short sellers covering by buying, which fueled the rally.
The current situation is: the cheap short positions available for harvesting in the market have decreased, so the "fuel" for the rally is insufficient. To maintain the price from falling sharply, the main funds choose to control and push up the price during the Asian early session when liquidity is at its thinnest.
Check for yourself if the situation matches what I described? Short a position during the day, set an alarm to go long every morning, and you can pay attention to the follow-up.Citibank Research on October 19 repositioned Aave as a decentralized collateral liquidity protocol, not just crypto lending. Golden Finance and Cointelegraph reported similar perspectives.
On-chain matching shows that tokenized fund collateral on Horizon, such as JAAA, has risen from about $18 million to around $51.9 million. Tokenized US stock collateral lending on Base remains small, with roughly $9 million collateral and over $3 million USDC loans. CoinGecko spot AAVE is about $148, down roughly 3% in 24 hours (snapshot around 16:05 Beijing time).
This feels more like an institutional narrative trying to get ahead; the real scale is still small. The research report provides direction, not that the current scale has exploded. The opposing side is also clear: activity relies on incentives, US users can't enter, and once regulation tightens, the story can be pushed back.
In the next two weeks, focus on only two things. Whether net collateral on Horizon and the tokenized stock market continues to expand; if the combined shrinkage exceeds 20% in two weeks, treat Citibank's narrative as empty hype. If AAVE underperforms ETH by more than 8% consistently, consider the market not buying into this story.
$AAVE $ETH $BTC
#Aave #Tokenization $ETH $BTC $SOL Why are some people still choosing to short in this situation?
Let's talk about the reasons for shorting:
1: First, the uncertainty of the midterm elections. The midterm elections are on November 3rd, just half a month away. If the Republicans don't do well, market funds will rush to safe havens. Historically, every midterm election has triggered a stock market sell-off: a 35% drop in 1974, 34% in 2002, and 27% in 2022, which was the smallest decline in recent years. This year will most likely be no exception.
2: September CPI year-on-year at 3.7% exceeded expectations, boosting bets on rate hikes. Expectations for a rate hike in December have strengthened, favoring a return of funds to dollar assets and deposits in banks to earn interest.
3: Continuous outflows from ETF spot funds. Last night, BlackRock institutions transferred 883 BTC and 28,957 ETH to the exchange (there was no dump last night; a dump is expected tonight).
These are all bearish points, but the probability of a waterfall drop is low. After all, the market is all about speculation on expectations. When bearish news lands, it often turns bullish. If you don't bottom-fish Ethereum at 2300, when will you? If you don't buy Bitcoin at 79,000, will you wait until 100,000???
Personally, I am still bullish. When everyone is panicking, I must be greedy!!!
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ The Hormuz reopening plan is still valid; can oil prices continue to fall? This geopolitical variable directly affects the sentiment of crude oil-related assets, and the current rebound seems more like a technical correction during a news vacuum. I remain cautious about a sustained decline. On the 4-hour chart, there is a steady upward trend closely following previous highs, with retracement narrowing step by step, and short-term strength remains unbroken. The negative funding rate combined with an open interest of 592,000 indicates a high degree of short crowding, suggesting a potential short squeeze; however, the buy-to-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is 0.77, with selling pressure still dominant, and solid sell orders suppressing around 99.77. Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 98.63, with a stop loss at 97.85 and a target of 99.62; if volume increases and price stabilizes above 99.62, positions can be added to chase up to 100.35. Position size should be controlled within 20%, and exit immediately if stop loss is hit—do not hold losing positions.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$CL#霍尔木兹重开方案仍有效，油价能否继续回落？
#霍尔木兹重开方案仍有效，油价能否继续回落？
$CL $CL
Folks, have you recently felt uneasy seeing your account in the red? No matter how you buy lately, you end up losing?
Want to know why? Follow Ali's lead and let's break down the logic behind this~
Actually, the current market is being stirred up by oil prices, interest rates, and AI stocks working together!!!
First, the Middle East situation is unstable, tanker freight rates are rising, and as oil prices go up, global inflation won't come down. If inflation doesn't ease, would the Fed dare to cut rates? In that case, US Treasury yields will surge, capital costs will rise, and people will be even less willing to put money into the stock market. As for AI stocks, under a high interest rate environment, they face the dual pressure of rising financing costs and earnings falling short of expectations. The market's valuation logic shifts from growth narratives to cash flow validation, making high valuations unsustainable.
Ali's current view is that this is like dominoes, one thing triggering another. Don't rush to bottom-fish yet; we need to keep an eye on oil prices and US Treasury yields. Without these two falling back, the market will struggle to truly stabilize.
$SKHY $MU #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 OKX Prophet's earnings season is back with a new battle royale format, which is much more exciting than simply competing for XP leaderboard spots: the ultimate winner takes 10,000 USDT. The rules are extremely harsh yet simple: answer correctly to advance, answer incorrectly or skip and you're immediately eliminated. Registration closes tonight, so hurry up. This round, I break down the judgments on four targets for reference only, not as trading calls. Tesla ➔ No Delivering 486,500 vehicles indeed exceeded expectations, but year-on-year it still dropped about 2%. Q2 automotive gross margin excluding credits was only 16.3%, and Q3 market expectations are around 17%. Free cash flow is expected to be negative around $4.5 billion, with capital expenditures focused on Robotaxi and AI. Good delivery numbers don't equal good profits; at this point, I prefer No. Netflix ➔ Yes The advertising tier and crackdown on password sharing are still yielding benefits, with advertising revenue targeted at about $3 billion this year, supported by both ARPU price increases and ads. However, content chief Bela Bajaria left before the earnings report, and the company laid off about 1,000 people (around 6%), so there are short-term uncertainties. I lean Yes, but with moderate to high confidence, not risk-free. SpaceX ➔ Yes Starlink's Q2 revenue was $4.29 billion with an operating margin of 38.6%, strong for a single business. But SpaceX group’s overall free cash flow for the first half of the year...#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
I choose Yes for SpaceX, but with the smallest position. Starlink reached 12 million users last quarter, and connection service revenue rose by 66%; I'm willing to bet on this growth. The problem is the whole group is still losing $541 million, and both AI and aerospace businesses are spending money. The synergy between Roadster and SpaceX looks lively, but the earnings report ultimately depends on whether Starlink's profits can cover investments elsewhere. If this bet is wrong, I wouldn't be too surprised. This month, $BTC ETFs have seen a net outflow exceeding $600 million, and $ETH ETFs have lost over $300 million in a single week — this is not just ordinary position adjustment, but a systematic reduction by institutions after inflation data exceeded expectations and rate cut expectations were forced to be postponed. What truly deserves attention is never how the candlesticks jump daily, but the direction in which the funds are moving. 😂 Many people mistake this rebound for a turning point, but structurally it looks more like a technical repair after a deep drop. The ETF channel is still experiencing net outflows; the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is far from decided, and signals of large-scale incremental capital returning have yet to appear. In other words, prices are moving, but the money hasn't come back. Breaking down the divergence between the two main assets is clearer: $BTC has rebounded from around $80,000 but overall remains in a recovery range after a decline, so it cannot be called a trend reversal; $ETH is obviously weaker, with a deeper pullback and a weaker rebound. The persistence and intensity of ETF net outflows exceed those of Bitcoin, and institutions are more resolute in reducing holdings. The same track, two different situations — this itself is an undervalued piece of information. My judgment is: the market generally misreads the rebound as a prelude to capital inflow, but the only real confirmation signal is continuous net inflows into ETFs over multiple days, with prices effectively breaking through key resistance levels. Before that, any rebound is just a repair, not a reversal. This also means that if funds are really to return, $ETH will require a longer repair period and verification time than $BTC, with both elasticity and risk coexisting. Instead of watching the market every day waiting for a big bullish candle, it's better to watch the flow of funds, which is a more honest indicator #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点
I choose Yes for this Netflix deal; the idea isn't that exciting, but I think there's a chance. Last quarter's revenue was $12.56 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, with an operating margin of 33.4%. The company’s revenue forecast for Q3 is $12.86 billion; subscribers, price hikes, and advertising are still helping it make money, and the growth rate of content amortization is expected to slow down in the second half of the year. I bet it will ultimately pay a bit more than its own forecast. However, the company expects revenue growth to slow to 11.7%, so I’m thinking it will slightly beat expectations, not suddenly take off.$BTC reported at 81551, down 1.13%, $ETH reported at 2392, down 1.30%. Last night, while the US stock market rebounded, neither followed suit; domestic confidence clearly hasn't returned, both are grinding in a weak range.
The main pressure comes from the December rate hike expectations. CME shows a 77.8% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December. Under tightening capital expectations, high-volatility assets are the first to be hit.
Interestingly, yesterday spot BTC ETF net inflow was $527 million. Money is coming in but the price didn't move, indicating that on-exchange profit-taking and short-term shorts are selling off. Moreover, a huge whale sold 12,468 ETH, pocketing $8.99 million, then turned around to use $20 million USDC to go long on crude oil. Large funds believe energy is more certain than crypto and are voting with their feet.
Next, focus on two things: whether December rate hike expectations continue to heat up, and whether ETF net inflows can sustain. These two directly determine if BTC can hold the 80,000 level. If expectations don't ease and funds don't continue, 80,000 will eventually be worn down. Wait for the direction to be clear before following, don't take sides prematurely. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ 10年期美债收益率冲到了24年来的最高，美元指数冲到了年内新高。按照过去的逻辑，这个时候美股应该承压，黄金走牛。结果美股创了新高，中东打得还是这么凶，黄金反而成了配角。而真正创纪录的是老美加油站里的柴油价格。 五类东西的价格好像在各说各的：美元、黄金、原油、美债、美股。到底谁在说谎话？ 我先说一个大多数人都没有太想清楚的认知误区：就是看这几种资产，一个价格一个价格地看。美债涨了就盯着美债，黄金跌了就盯着黄金看。但这是孤立的，看不出任何一个资产的真相。 真正管用的方式，是把这五个东西——美元、美债、美股、黄金、石油——想象成一个五边形的五个角。五个角之间有条线连着，一个角一动，线一扯，另外四个角全部跟着晃。 所以要迭代的不是看懂某一个角的线性波动，而是这五个角的关系是什么。关系对了，才能够搞清楚第四个季度这五个角会怎么样变化。 先把五个角各自是什么说清楚： 第一个，美元是全世界的“收费站”。全世界买卖大多数都要从这个收费站过一道。全球央行外汇储备里美元占五成多，每天全球外汇交易将近九成有美元参与。 但要想清楚美元的本质是什么：一张欠条越值钱，不是因为背后有金子，而是因为大家相信老美这个开INJ traded 149 million on 10/16, 4.6 times that of the previous day, with a 12% increase that day.
Four days later, the price is 5.2% lower than the closing price that day, and the volume is only 30% left.
That day closed at 8.977, with a high of 9.476.
None of the following four days managed to stand back above that level.
The average volume over the last three days is only 30% of that on 10/16.
Today's volume in the same period is only 55% of yesterday's.
Looking at 15 coins.
OP and TIA also had large volumes, dropping more than 10%, but volume remained above 60%.
INJ is the only one with volume dropping below 30%.
I think the significance of a large-volume long bullish candle is not how much it rose that day, but whether anyone continues to buy.
No second wave in four days, and volume keeps shrinking, more like a turnover was completed that day.
Someone handed over the coins to the buyers chasing the high, then both sides stopped moving.
But I don't see it as a bearish signal: the price is still sideways at 8.5, and on 10/19 it closed up 5.4%.
I tend to observe rather than chase: not treating the huge volume as a breakout, nor the shrinking volume as a crash.
I set strict invalidation conditions.
If it stands back above 8.98 and daily volume returns to 90 million, then 149 million was accumulation, not distribution, and I admit I was wrong.
If it breaks below 7.796, distribution is confirmed, and I will no longer assume a rebound.
Time is given until 10/23; if no volume-price coordination in three days, treat as consolidation.
If you hold INJ, will you wait for it to stand back above 8.98, or treat it as distribution?
$INJ $TIA $OP
#Bitcoin breaks $83,000 #Short liquidationsxSOXL was still at 105 yesterday, but today on OKEx it directly dropped back to 96, down 4.49%—overnight, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US just ended an eight-day losing streak with a 1.61% gain, yet today in the Asian session, the Korean stock market was bloodied again: KOSPI closed down 3.73%, SK Hynix intraday fell over 7%, sentiment swinging back and forth, exposing the fragility of 3x leveraged ETFs.
The driver is a tug-of-war on two fronts: US stocks just caught a breath (SanDisk and Micron both rose over 4% overnight), while in Asia, the aftershock of a 35% plunge in ChangXin Memory Technology is still fermenting, with valuation cuts not yet finished; on OKEx's gainers list, xSOXS (3x short semiconductor) actually led with +5.12%, shorts are still celebrating, no consensus between bulls and bears.
Looking at the market: OKEx xSOXL current price is 96.00, MA5 at 96.18 just broke below MA30, the super trend at 97.89 is pressing overhead, RSI at 37.42 weakening but not yet oversold, support at 95.79 right below. My judgment: leveraged ETFs fear this kind of choppy market the most; yesterday's recovery and today's sell-off cancel each other out, volatility is amplified, don't bet on 3x products for a one-sided move.
Watch two signals: whether the 95.79 support holds—if broken, it means a deep pullback; also watch if tonight's US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can continue its recovery or will keep falling with Asia—until sentiment stabilizes, rebounds are just fake moves.
#xSOXL #Semiconductor #Storage
Not investment advice, DYORSolana's ecosystem growth and SOL's market performance are two different things.
A network can attract stablecoins, users, and applications without those developments immediately translating into higher token demand.
That's why I look beyond ecosystem headlines and ask whether adoption is producing sustained activity and stronger market participation.
Fundamentals matter, but investors still need to assess valuation, demand, and risk.The treasury company has bought more coins again, but ordinary shareholders shouldn't be too quick to celebrate.
The most important thing to calculate is whether the BTC per share has actually increased after the purchase.
The total amount of coins held by the company going up looks encouraging; however, if more shares are issued at the same time, the new coins have to be shared among more shareholders. The total position grows larger, but the portion allocated to each share you hold may not improve as much.
This is also the aspect I want to compare more when looking at Strive's increased holdings and Strategy's buybacks.
Continuing to buy coins increases asset exposure; buybacks depend on the specific securities repurchased, transaction prices, and what liabilities are reduced. Both are capital operations, and the final impact on ordinary shareholders needs to be calculated separately.
I don't like turning this kind of discussion into a test of faith. Praising large purchases as determination and doubting small ones as wavering is too simplistic. If management thinks handling financing costs is more cost-effective, they should explain the accounts clearly.
The treasury's equity inherently carries an additional layer of corporate operation and financing risk compared to directly holding BTC. Holders shouldn't just look at the coin price but must also watch whether their equity is being diluted.
Next time I see a headline like "increased holdings by how many coins," I'll first check the change in share count and then look at the financing terms. Passion is fine, but if you're buying stock, you need to clearly calculate what your share actually receives after this operation.
#Strive大额增持，Strategy回购规模超买币 Two lines are converging: the crypto market is deleveraging, while the US stock market is picking up bargains.
Let's look at the crypto market first.
Nearly $40 million was liquidated in the past hour, and the structure is more important than the amount:
• BTC is the main battlefield: accounting for nearly 30%, long positions absolutely dominate, short positions only about 7%—long crowded trades are being concentratedly liquidated
• ETH shows resistance: short liquidations account for 37% ($5.46 million), with a mid-way rebound washing out short-sellers
• SOL is just along for the ride: only 3.56%, leverage is not crowded, just following the decline
Now let's look at the US stock market.
Overnight, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 0.4%, and the semiconductor index ended an eight-day losing streak. Leading the gains were Amazon (+5%), SanDisk (+5.5%), and SK Hynix (+5%)—all parts of the previously heavily hit computing power chain.
Putting these two lines together:
At both ends of risk assets, the same thing is happening—leveraged positions are being squeezed out, and crowded trades are being cleared.
The crypto market is forcibly deleveraging through liquidations; the US stock market is naturally deleveraging through an eight-day decline. Now both sides are almost simultaneously reaching the first rebound after hitting emotional lows.
Such a coincidence is rare in history. At the end of 2018 and after March 2020, there were also crypto-stock resonances marking bottoms.
Of course, two samples don't make a rule. But at least, the most panic-stricken phases on both sides are behind us.
Next, watch two things:
1. Whether ETH's rebound can evolve into an independent rally—a leading indicator of crypto market sentiment
2. Whether the semiconductor index can hold steady and launch a second wave—a leading indicator of US stock market momentum
Whoever moves first will be the main theme of the next wave. #Chip stocks end eight consecutive declines, how far can the AI market go? **The Korean stock market rebounded for two days only to be knocked back to square one, is this round of adjustment really over?** Here's my judgment: it's not yet time to rush to bottom-fish; this current rebound may still be just a technical correction within a downtrend, and the true bottom likely needs more time to confirm. The South Korean KOSPI index closed today at 5552.74 points, down 3.73%. The gains from the previous two trading days were almost entirely given back in one day. During the session, the index once dipped to 5493 points, breaking below the 5500-point mark. Capital flow is also not optimistic: foreign investors net sold 636.7 billion KRW, institutions net sold 467 billion KRW, showing clear market selling pressure. **On the news front, market concerns have not substantially eased.** Doubts remain about whether AI investment returns can be realized, U.S. Treasury yields staying above 5% continue to suppress risk appetite, and uncertainties in the French situation further increase market volatility. More notably, the previous stock buyback support from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has ended. Some market views suggest that with such buying exiting, stock prices may lose important support. JPMorgan also pointed out that this change is one of the key differences between the current market and the previous two sharp declines. **Technically, there is also no clear reversal signal.** The index has fallen below the 200-day moving average, and the 10-day moving average faces the risk of crossing below the 50-day moving average. Although the RSI Why does a small position always make money, but once I add to the position, I start losing?
The most heartbreaking thing isn’t making the wrong call, but that trial trades earn just enough for a meal, while heavy positions lose half a year’s salary.
I used to think it was just bad luck: when the position was small, the market went my way; when I seriously bet big, the market turned against me. Later, after reviewing my trade records, I realized that not only did I increase the position size, but I also secretly changed my trading method.
With a small position, I could wait through pullbacks and exit when signals failed; with a heavy position, every bearish candle felt like it was cutting into my living expenses.
Originally watching the four-hour trend, suddenly I was fixated on one-minute fluctuations; I couldn’t resist cutting losses on normal retracements, only to see prices rebound and recover. The direction hadn’t changed, but I lost money by constantly fiddling back and forth.
What’s more subtle is that after several profitable trial trades, I often missed the most comfortable entry points. By the time I finally “confirmed” the trend and increased my position, the price was farther from the invalidation point. The same amount of coins carried very different risks.
Making money with a small position only proves those few trades were effective; it doesn’t prove that after scaling up tenfold, I can still follow the original rules. What really needs gradual verification is whether larger fluctuations force me to change my plan.
Remember: position size is not a button to just amplify profit numbers; when it becomes so large that it changes your actions, what you’re doing is no longer the original trade.With such heavy short positions, why is the funding rate still positive? Many people start to feel confused.
Actually, margin looks at the size of the position and how much money is piled up, while the funding rate is designed to keep the perpetual price close to the spot price. It is a correction tool, not a headcount.
Perpetual contracts are pegged to the spot market, so a positive funding rate is set to make longs pay, suppressing the premium.
So if shorts have a lot of money and the funding rate is still positive, what's going on❓❔
As of the week ending October 13, hedge funds reduced regular short selling by 6,437 $BTC, but cross-period arbitrage positions increased by 2,719, a 48% rise.
Therefore, a large portion of the shorts are arbitrage trades, hedging by buying spot and shorting perpetuals, profiting from this positive funding rate.
This position is large, but they don't want the price to drop; they are collecting rent, which pushes the short scale very high, yet the contract price hasn't been crushed below the spot price.
Currently, leveraged funds' net short positions have decreased by 15%, shorts are withdrawing, but the funding rate hasn't turned negative. This indicates the premium still exists, and longs are still paying.
The direction hasn't been decided yet. Personally, I think a big move is brewing.
#BTC funding rate Old Musk is about to start making big promises! Musk announced that next year he will give every child in the U.S. one share of SpaceX stock
Just as SpaceX is about to officially release its first full quarterly financial report after going public, I conducted a special research and calculation on $SPCX using my own U.S. stock research platform
From the basic financial data:
* SpaceX currently has about 7.7 billion shares outstanding
* Wall Street's current consensus median EPS is $0.1346, corresponding to a single quarter net profit expectation of about $1.036 billion
* The company's actual EPS last quarter was -$0.09, equivalent to a net loss of $693 million.
This means that if the company wants to meet Wall Street's basic expectations this quarter, the net profit for the quarter needs to increase by a full $1.729 billion quarter-over-quarter. Although the company's revenue growth rate reached 91.90% and gross margin remained at 51.88%, the R&D testing of Starship V3, spaceport expansion, and capital expenditures on ground computing infrastructure are still at high levels
Last quarter's net profit margin was -35.66%, operating profit margin was -1.80%, and under strict GAAP accounting standards, depreciation and amortization of fixed assets are rigid, so significantly turning a profit in the short term still faces financial constraints
───
I directly placed a NO bet on OKX, there is a clear odds asymmetry, the event is completely free to participate in, win XP and share extra bonuses, comfortable!To be honest, I've been a bit annoyed watching the ETF data this week.
Every day it's outflows. Three weeks ago, there were continuous net inflows, then suddenly the largest single-day outflow, and it hasn't stopped since.
BTC has been performing well though, climbing steadily after the 79725 spike, reaching a high of 83149. But now, it's dropped back to 81849.
Money is moving, prices are rising, and I've been thinking about this for several days.
Now I understand, ETF outflows don't mean no one is buying; it means the holders have changed.
The 79725 spike was taken by a whale, 83149 was BTC pushing up on its own, and ETF money was never the main force behind this rebound. This rally was driven by short covering and retail bottom-fishing, not really related to institutions.
So regarding the question on the list, whether the rebound can continue, my answer is: it depends.
We need to see when ETF outflows stop; only when they stop will the rebound have solid support. Since outflows are still happening daily, this rally is just sentiment-driven. Sentiment comes fast and goes fast.
I've been burned by this kind of sentiment-driven market before, just paid my tuition last week, so I can say this honestly. I'm not chasing, really not chasing. Chasing now is just lining up for the next liquidation.
Did anyone chase this week? If you did, how's it going? Share your situation.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC BTC has stubbornly risen from 80,000 to 83,000 in the past two days, which looks quite strong.
Yesterday it surged to 83,000, but it didn’t hold for long and softened, falling back to around 82,000. Sigh, no money to support it.
Looking at two sets of data, recently BTC spot ETFs saw an outflow of 229 million USD, and ETH was even worse with an outflow of 320 million. The most heartbreaking part is that on the 19th, even though BTC was rebounding, BTC ETFs still slipped away by 139 million!
This is interesting: the price bounced up, but the real institutional money didn’t come back at all, not even a shadow of sustained net inflow. To put it bluntly, the hype crew in the market is desperately shouting “bull market returning fast,” but the real big buyers are quietly retreating.
I think this rebound is actually "bloated."
BTC and ETH have no external fresh capital continuously pumping in; relying solely on sentiment to pull up won’t get far. Especially on the ETH side, the capital outflow is severe, indicating that big money is still unwilling to take risks. As long as ETF outflows don’t stop, this kind of rebound is most likely just a breather after a big drop, and a real reversal is hard to come by.
Folks, don’t be fooled by short-term green candles. Don’t chase the highs! Don’t catch the falling knife! $BTC $ETH
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ In a bull market, apart from retail investors, the main funds are all rushing ahead.
The chart shows the best pullback entry points based on liquidity and technical analysis from the bottom to now, but the main funds never give the chance, and retail investors all perfectly miss out.
As long as there is consensus, there will be buy orders from retail investors, and retail investors are the group least likely to hold firmly. The main funds keep pushing the price up, while retail investors keep selling, which inevitably makes it difficult to push the price higher.
Therefore, the best opportunity is to prevent them from getting on board.
Currently, the position based on technical analysis and high liquidity area is at 75000, where a large number of order requests are placed. If you were the main funds, would you take these people on board before starting to push the price up?