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📅 2026-07-26 (Sunday) Night Market and Macro Review
💾 1. Changxin Memory: Listed on the STAR Market tomorrow
Changxin Memory (CXMT) will go public on Monday and is one of the most watched IPOs in Asia this year. Currently, HYPE has listed the CXMT Pre-IPO perpetual market, and the market heat in the storage sector continues to rise.
This IPO will not only affect the A-share semiconductor sector, but may also drive a revaluation of the global storage industry chain, with a focus on:
Micron（MU）
SK Hynix
Samsung
SanDisk
If Changxin Memory's performance on its first day of listing clearly exceeds expectations, capital may further spread into memory chips and related supply chains, which is one of the most noteworthy events this week.
📈 2. US Stocks and Technology Stocks: Entering the Earnings Super Week
This week, tech stock earnings reports will be released intensively, with highlights including:
Microsoft
Meta
Apple
Amazon
The market no longer debates "does AI have a future?" but instead asks a more realistic question:
When will massive AI capital expenditures translate into revenue and profit?
Microsoft and Amazon need to demonstrate the monetization capabilities of their cloud business and AI services; Meta needs to demonstrate AI's improvements in advertising efficiency; Apple will have to answer whether AI can truly drive a new round of hardware replacement cycles.
This week's earnings report is likely to determine the next phase direction for tech stocks and AI main lines.
🪙 3. BTC and ETH: The waiting mode before major events
BTC and ETH showed little volatility today, typical of a wait-and-see approach before major events.
The main short-term scenario still depends on the Fed:
If the Fed issues a dovish signal and liquidity expectations improve, BTC and ETH are likely to continue strengthening;
If the stance leans hawkish and US Treasury yields and the dollar rise again, it will be necessary to guard against risk assets pulling back in tandem.
The current position is not suitable for frequent direction changes due to minor weekend fluctuations; more importantly, it is better to wait for confirmation from this week's macro events.
🔥 4. HYPE: The focus remains on ecosystem expansion
HYPE's focus today is not on price, but on the ongoing improvement of its ecosystem and the increasing coverage of traditional assets and pre-IPO targets.
This is also one of the core reasons I have been following HYPE for a long time.
If on-chain DEXs can continue to compete for market share among centralized exchanges in the future, HYPE will remain a top-tier project worth monitoring.
🟡 5. Gold and Crude Oil: Currently lacking new catalysts
Gold
The market was closed over the weekend, and there were no significant changes in the market. In the short term, attention remains on the US dollar and US Treasury yields. This week, the Fed's statement will be the most important directional variable for gold.
Crude oil
Crude oil continues to trade around geopolitics and supply risks, with no particularly new catalysts emerging so far, awaiting capital feedback after Monday's open.
🗓️ 6. This week's key events calendar
⭐ Monday
Changxin Memory went public
⭐ Wednesday
Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Microsoft earnings report
Meta's earnings report
⭐ Thursday
Apple earnings report
Amazon financial report
U.S. GDP data
⭐ Friday
U.S. PCE data
China PMI data
💡 Today's trading reflections
A real major market often doesn't start the moment the news is released.
Before major events occur, funds usually adjust their positions and allocation in advance. Many people are still watching whether BTC rose or fell 0.5% today, but what truly determines the market trend for the next month may be:
The Federal Reserve's policy stance
Tech giants' earnings performance
The actual returns of AI CapEx
Market feedback after Changxin Memory's IPO
So, rather than obsessing over whether there will be fluctuations over the weekend, I prefer to focus on one issue:
In the next phase, which assets will become the most willing directions for continued purchases?
The market has entered a super week; patiently wait for key events to unfold, then adjust direction based on the results.
The above is solely a personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice.#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 Majority leader says the CLARITY bill is difficult to pass before the recess—is this really bearish?
When the market sees "difficulty passing before the recess," the market's first reaction is usually a slowdown in regulatory progress, which is bearish for the crypto market.
But what I focus on more is another question: is market trading about "time" or "direction"?
If the legislative timeline is only delayed rather than a policy direction reversed, then it is more like a shift in the pace of expected fulfillment, rather than logic being overturned.
A common phenomenon in the capital market is that everyone knows a favorable trend will come, but what truly affects prices is not "whether it will come," but "when it will come" or "how much the market has traded in advance."
From a trading perspective, I prefer to understand this kind of news as:
* Short-term trading may affect market sentiment, and risk appetite for funds may cool;
* In the medium to long term, continue to observe whether the U.S. regulatory framework continues to move in a clearer direction.
Many people like to simply divide news into positive or negative news, but the real complexity of the market lies in the fact that the same message can mean completely different outcomes at different stages.
If the market has already priced in advance and quickly passed, then the extension is bearish; If market expectations were already low, the extension may not necessarily change the trend.
This is also the trading approach I've always adhered to:
Don't rush to judge the news itself, but rather assess the discrepancy between the news and market expectations. What really drives prices is often not events, but disappointing expectations.
In the future, I will continue to monitor legislative progress, but more focused on whether funds are reallocating risk assets due to changes in regulatory expectations, rather than changing their trading logic based on a single piece of news.
Do you think the extension of the CLARITY Act is just a matter of time, or will it affect the overall direction of U.S. crypto regulation? Feel free to share your thoughts. $ETH After watching the market in the evening, I was about to shut down my computer, but then I came across the new continuous announcements from Jensen Huang over the past two days. My first reaction was not to look at Nvidia, but to wonder: will the Korean stock AI industry chain become the market focus tomorrow?
Recently, compared to short-term price fluctuations, I have been paying more attention to changes in the industry chain because, often, large capital looks beyond one or two days to the supply and demand pattern over the coming years.
What is particularly noteworthy this time is that Jensen Huang not only announced that Nvidia's future cooperation scale with SK Group will exceed $500 billion, but also stated that they will lock in the purchase of SK Hynix's HBM for many consecutive years. Meanwhile, Anthropic has also reached long-term cooperation agreements with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Putting these pieces of news together, I feel the signals released are even more important than many companies' quarterly financial reports.
Several leading global AI companies are almost simultaneously integrating the Korean memory industry into their core supply chains, indicating that market competition is no longer just between models but is beginning to extend to underlying hardware and supply chains.
My own understanding is that such cooperation may not immediately reflect in stock prices in the short term, but it will indeed impact the long-term expectations of the entire industry chain.
Jensen Huang also mentioned that the global semiconductor industry scale could expand to 10 times its current size over the next decade. His core point is very clear: future computing power demand will not only come from humans but also from an increasing number of AI Agents, robots, and other intelligent terminals.
If this direction continues to materialize, the real beneficiaries will not be limited to GPUs.
Components like HBM, high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, data centers, and power infrastructure may all face long-term supply tightness and sustained demand growth. This is why I have been focusing on the AI industry chain recently, rather than just watching a few model companies.
Of course, I also think the current market valuation of AI is already high, and short-term overheating or even valuation bubbles are normal phenomena.
But I have always believed that bubbles will eventually be digested by the market, and what truly remains are technology and productivity.
When AI in the future not only serves humans but also begins to serve billions of AI Agents and robots, the entire society's production methods, business models, and even industry divisions may undergo significant changes.
Therefore, I will not dismiss the entire AI logic because of a few days of short-term fluctuations, nor will I blindly chase highs just because of some positive news. I prefer to continuously monitor industry trends and then decide my position based on valuation and timing.
If this round of AI truly becomes an important driving force for the next wave of productivity transformation, then what is really worth seizing is not just a single day's rise but the opportunities brought by long-term industry evolution. Of course, the greater the opportunity, the greater the volatility, so trading still requires good control of rhythm and risk. $SKHY 📊 $LTC Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $1,155.41
· 4 hours: $11,800
· 12 hours: $34,400
· 24 hours: $43,200
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $213.75 $941.66 18.5%
4h $591.75 $11,200 5.0%
12h $1,620.84 $32,800 4.7%
24h $6,525.97 $36,600 15.1%
Duokong interpretation
Across cycles, short blowouts crushed the bulls (24-hour short positions accounted for 84.9%), indicating a sustained short-squeeze rally. Short positions account for 81.5%~95.3% of the 1-12 hours, with bears continuously being liquidated; The 24-hour bullish counterattack has slightly strengthened, but bears still dominate the market. Ultimate winner: Bulls—prices continue to rise strongly.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 2.67% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 27.3% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 79.6% of 24 hours
Extreme liquidations are concentrated on the 12-hour cycle (nearly 80%), indicating that the main short squeeze rally erupted in concentrated within 12 hours; The total 24-hour volume is 1.26 times that of the 12-hour period, with limited incremental growth in the following 12 hours, signaling the end of the short squeeze. Currently, the market is at the end of the high level of the short squeeze phase, with bears suffering heavy losses, but caution is needed regarding profit-taking pressure.
A one-sentence explanation
$LTC 24-hour short liquidations at $36,600, accounting for 84.9% of total volume; 12-hour concentrated burst forced the main rally, with bulls winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress $ORDI
ORDIUSDT
Perp
3.826
+7.53%
USDT has climbed +7.90%, currently trading at 3.837 USDT. The bullish structure remains intact, with strong buying interest supporting the move. A break above resistance may trigger fresh momentum.
Entry: 3.80–3.85
TP: 3.95 | 4.08 | 4.20
SL: 3.68超短线交易复盘
很多人觉得合约赚钱靠预判行情、赌方向，我用实打实的账户成绩单说句实在话：超短线想要活下去，从来不是抓住一波大行情暴富，是赚看得懂的小钱，管住看不懂的大亏。
先晒下实盘结果，初始本金1百5出头，一路做到419.73U，整体收益率直接翻倍104.32%。过程不是一路长虹，中途最大回撤接近10%，踩过坑、浮亏过，扛住回调之后再稳步创新高。$BTC $ETH $DOGE Because the weekend volatility is relatively small, I usually only update one article. Now I'll summarize this week and forecast next week's market. This week, I kept watching a rally to surpass the previous high of 72,300, but the big players got worse. Everyone is looking for a fake breakout and won't let you break out. I just tested it and exited, planning to go long to a new high and then make the final mid- to long-term short move. Unexpectedly, I tried to steal a chicken but ended up losing money.
Prices are still in a bottom-of-fluctuation zone with no clear breakout signals, as tensions in the Middle East are heating up and oil prices are soaring, making US inflation even more severe and possibly raising expectations for next week's rate hike. If this outlook continues, short-term rallies won't be significant, and without macro conditions, the likelihood of a direct bull run is very low. That's why I keep expecting a second bottom, or even breaking below previous lows
The daily chart dropped directly near the pre-test high, and the price slipped away early, showing no sense of honor. The daily chart has fallen three times in a row. Although it is still testing near the middle band, the bulls are still in jeopardy. As I said before, multiple tests of support are not support, but a trap for being broken. If strong buying is entering a certain area, it won't break upward after multiple tests. Continuous tests indicate insufficient buying strength, and this test increases the risk of a breakout
A relatively clear recovery in the minor level is not a strong rally, but there are very clear trend reversal signals. The key resistance is near 64,700. If today's rebound fails to hold this level, the price will continue to decline, breaking the key support near 62,200. If it breaks this level, the price will reach resistance at 65,500. However, due to the weekly closing line, I am not optimistic about a breakout to a new high next week. Therefore, I personally lean toward a slight rebound before a decline
In summary, the decline came several hundred points earlier than expected, so we need to adjust our thinking in time. Given the current overall situation, expectations for rate hikes have increased significantly, putting tremendous short-term pressure. Therefore, it is unlikely that a very large rebound will occur in the near future. I am optimistic about a small rebound followed by a continued downward trend. Although the bullish position has not been completely destroyed yet, the seven tests of the mid-band have not shown any real upward momentum, indicating insufficient momentum among the bulls. Therefore, the overall focus is on a continuation of bearish momentum after a rebound. Short-term focus on the gains and losses of resistance at 64,700 #EarningReportObserver: Who can truly understand the real answer cards of Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress We have no person in charge. Now I need to be aware of the following issues. I am only contacting through the official Gate app. Management, please address the issues below. Please read the text carefully and avoid perfunctory rhetoric. Gate's meaning is: the 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD we paid according to the contract were sent to the "scammer's" wallet. Coincidentally, Gate's alpha automatically fetched ALD tokens, so they could not disclose who connected the token integration process. In the end, the scammer's wallet was transferred to Gate Is it true that alphas are airdropping?
Hash is here:
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
When a project pays for it, lists tokens, and is then told, "The person communicating with you is not one of us, and the project is logged into Gate"—is this Gate's response?My boyfriend said this coin was no good, but it ended up rising 10 times
Of course, that was in the past
But today I want to talk about a bigger rotation logic
South Korea's storage giants SK Hynix and Samsung both landed big orders from AI giants
SK Hynix ADR premium is as high as 51%
Do you know what a 51% premium means?
It means overseas funds are willing to pay half more to buy Korean stock mappings
This shows how crazy the demand for AI chips has become
And then guess what
South Korea's pension fund turned to net buying KOSPI for the first time this year
Their heavy holdings are in SK Hynix
When even pension funds move, it shows this is not speculation
It's a real industrial trend
Then ChangXin Technology is going public tomorrow
Off-market valuation is 2.76 trillion
Putting these three things together actually reveals a clear sector rotation logic
AI chip demand spreads from the US to South Korea and then to China
The entire semiconductor industry chain is benefiting
So what does this have to do with crypto? A lot
The AI arms race continuously drives up computing power demand
Computing power demand drives the valuation logic of AI tokens
And South Korean funds have always been an important force in the crypto market
South Korea's pension fund starting to buy stocks
Shows South Korean funds are shifting from conservative to aggressive
Once South Korean retail investors see pension funds buying
They will rush in after them
Then the overflow funds will flow into the crypto market
This path has been verified countless times in the past
So my judgment is
The capital transmission chain from AI semiconductors → South Korean stock market → crypto market has already started
Now position yourself in the AI+Crypto track
The harvest period will come when South Korean funds spill over
Find projects in the AI sector that are actually working
Don't chase pure concepts
Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, several directions worth watching
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元
The monthly trading volume of RWA perpetuals keeps rising every month. 470 billion monthly trading volume has already surpassed many CEX perpetual volumes. In this cycle, RWA is the most stable track—not like meme coins relying on sentiment, not like AI relying on narrative, RWA is supported by real financial demand.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
The ETH staking sell pressure alarm is lifted. Previously, a large queue of ETH unstaking caused market worries about stETH issues; now the exit queue is zero, indicating the most panic moment has passed. ETH consolidating here is building a bottom.
#三星Galaxy钱包将原生支持稳定币
Samsung's move is huge. Galaxy users can use stablecoins right when they open their phones; USDT and USDC monthly active users may double. For projects building stablecoin application layers, this is the biggest catalyst.
$AI $FET #sectorrotation #AIchips #semiconductorsTwo days cost me three months' salary, and now I just want some peace
But after calming down, I looked into it
It has been found that this week, the intersection between traditional finance and crypto is increasing
Let me start with a piece of data you might not have noticed
RWA perpetual monthly trading volume is $470 billion
470 billion!! ！
This is no small number
What does that mean?
Many second- and third-tier exchanges have perpetual contracts that don't have this volume combined
Then guess what
RWA is actually the most underrated narrative in this cycle
Everyone is chasing memes, AI, and DePin
But the real steady growth is actually RWA
Traditional financial institutions tokenize bonds, funds, and real estate on-chain
Then they trade perpetual contracts on-chain
Once this model works,
The liquidity of the entire financial market will be moved onto the chain
There's one more thing
Samsung Galaxy Wallet will natively support stablecoins
Hundreds of millions of devices worldwide are directly built-in
What does this mean?
This means users don't need to download from an exchange or understand what a mnemonic phrase is
USDC and USDT can be used directly on your phone
This is a qualitative leap for the entire industry's breakout
If Samsung succeeds in this move,
Apple is very likely to follow suit
At that point, the threshold for using encryption will shift from 'a bit difficult' to 'as simple as Alipay'
So my judgment is
RWA and wallet integration into stablecoins
This is the true fundamental narrative of this cycle
Price fluctuations are short-term events
Infrastructure is underwayThe principal was 30,000, with a maximum floating profit of 200,000, and now it has returned to 50,000
This roller coaster made my legs go weak
Looking back at this week, it was actually quite interesting
BTC has risen from 63,900 at the start of the week to 64,356 now
After five days of fluctuation, the fluctuation was only 0.7%.
But the vertical insertion in the middle has caused countless people to burst forth
Then guess what
Weekends are actually the most stable time of the week
No US stocks, no earnings reports, no big news
BTC was fluctuating back and forth between 63,800 and 64,500
Every time it drops to 63,800, someone buys in
When it reached 64,500, someone started selling
The bullish and bearish battles within this range are quite intense
The most noteworthy data is the BTC ETF
On Friday, there was a net outflow of $225 million
This week's cumulative data should also be leaked
Interestingly, while ETFs are outflowing BTC, the price does not fall
This indicates that OTC market buyers are digesting the selling pressure from ETFs
This is actually a very strong signal
If ETFs flow out, they won't be able to push prices down
So when ETFs flow in,
There is another signal
The 66K position weighs down on the 477 million short position liquidation intensity
Once it breaks through, it becomes a wave of bearish pressure and missing out
But the support below is also solid
The weekend's volatility was a build-up
So my judgment is
Although there was no major market rally this week,
But the bottom is getting firmer
BTC has been holding this level for a long time
The more explosive the breakthrough, the stronger the power
Next week, focus on U.S. stock movements on Tuesday and Wednesday
If it can hold at 66,000, then consider 70,000
Today, there are still a few worth itI didn't cut even after dropping 80%, but today it just rebounded
But the rebound wasn't the coin I bought
It is the PONS of the Robinhood Chain ecosystem
Its market value soared to $56 million, setting a new all-time high
I've been watching this coin for a while
Previously, it had dropped 80% from its peak.
At that time, on-chain data was completely silent
The daily trading volume alone amounts to tens of thousands of dollars
Then guess what
This week, Robinhood Chain suddenly came back to life
PONS nearly doubled from the bottom in a single day
Active on-chain addresses surged
This is no coincidence
I looked through the overall Robinhood Chain ecosystem
Discovered that a new developer project is being deployed on top of the platform
This wave of rally is not pure speculative capital
There is fundamental driving force inside
ROBINHOOD, as a compliant exchange in the United States, promotes a public blockchain
It comes with its own traffic
As soon as one or two ecosystem projects emerge,
The valuation logic of the entire chain will be reshaped
PONS is the first meme coin in the Robinhood Chain ecosystem
If the ecosystem continues to expand, it will still rise
But it's also a double-edged sword
Ecosystem meme coins rise quickly and fall just as fast
I learned a lesson on CASHCAT before
After several times the price went unsold and the price dropped, it fell back
So my judgment is
If you have PONS or similar Robinhood Chain ecosystem coins,
Now you can grab it
and other ecosystems that have become clearerThe market is already starting to feel a bit nervous about the Fed's rate meeting next Wednesday.
Crude oil once surged to $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike was pushed to 38%. A month ago, everyone was still discussing when to cut rates; now the market is already on guard against rate hikes, and this shift is happening quickly.
My view is that rates are unlikely to change, and statements and press conferences will remain hawkish. Since Warsh took office, he has rarely given the market answers in advance, and oil prices have put inflation back on the table. He has no reason to rush to appease risk assets.
If rates are maintained, tech stocks and BTC may breathe a sigh of relief first, and then still have to wait for press conferences. As long as he mentions the possibility of multiple rate hikes this year, I will lean toward reducing positions during the first wave of rebounds. If rates are raised directly, both the Nasdaq and the crypto world will face a round of rapid sell-offs.
This time, I'm also facing Microsoft and Meta's earnings reports, as well as GDP and PCE data—any of which goes wrong will amplify volatility. I won't go all out in the direction ahead of time. On Wednesday, I'll first watch the rate decision, then see how US Treasury yields move. If yields keep rising, it's hard for risk asset gains to last long.Buy-in price 0.003, now 0.3. I'm not good at math, but this seems to be 100 times
But don't get the wrong idea, I didn't buy it
My best friend bought it, and she talks about it in my ear every day
But what really concerned me was the flow of funds between public blockchains over the weekend
SOL rose 1.52% today to 74.86
ETH rose 1.33% to 1880
BTC rose by 0. 61% to 64,356
Have you noticed?
ETH's gains are larger than BTC's, and SOL's gains are even greater than ETH
Then guess what
This ranking actually signals that funds are moving toward high-risk, high-volatility directions
When market sentiment recovers
Funds first flow into BTC to determine direction
Then, after BTC stabilized
Overflowing funds will flow into ETH
Only then will it flow into high-beta assets like SOL
Currently, SOL has seen the highest gain
This indicates that market sentiment is indeed recovering
But there is an even more noteworthy highlight
RWA perpetual monthly trading volume of $470 billion—do you know what that means?
This is equivalent to the tokenization of bonds and funds in traditional finance
The transaction volume of perpetual contracts generated on-chain is already comparable to the GDP of some small countries
RWA is no longer a concept at all
Real money is on the way
Why RWA is positive for ETH
Because the vast majority of RWA assets are issued on Ethereum
Therefore, the higher the RWA trading volume, the higher ETH's on-chain activity
ETH's fee income has also risen accordingly
So my judgment is
At this stage, SOL is suitable for short-term trading, with large gains and volatility
ETH fits the medium-term RWA narrative to keep Ethereum alive
BTC is suitable for holding for the long term and waiting for a breakout above 66,000
Each of the three chains has its own logic; which one you choose depends on your holding timeframe
Let's also chat about a few hot topics and see if any of them are worth following
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
The repeated delays on the CLARITY Act are indeed frustrating. But from another perspective, both parties are pushing forward, but the timeline is stuck. If it doesn't pass before the August recess, we'll have to wait until September; if it doesn't pass in September, we'll have to wait until after the midterm elections. As long as the direction is right, being late is better than never. The more pessimistic people there are now, the greater the gap in expectations when the reality is realized.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
The biggest good news of the weekend. Geopolitical cooling means reduced demand for safe-haven assets, with funds flowing back from gold and US Treasuries into risk assets. Previously, when the situation in Iran was tense, BTC couldn't fall and was already very strong; now, the rebound in risk appetite may actually be a catalyst.
#韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
SK Hynix and Samsung have both secured major AI chip orders, once again reaffirming South Korea's semiconductor competitiveness. The crypto AI track will also be repeatedly reactivated by such news—the demand for AI computing power isn't just a story, it's really exploding. South Korea's pension fund has also started buying KOSPI, which is an important signal.
#公链 #RWABTC 领涨但山寨分化严重，这不是全面突破的信号
当前市场是否正在形成 BTC 独涨下的结构性失衡，而非普涨行情？
从衍生品结构看，BTC 资金费率维持在 0.01%-0.02% 中性区间，未出现极端多头拥挤，基差稳定在 5%-8% 年化，期货升水未激增，表明杠杆资金并未大规模涌入。ETH 基差略低于 BTC，资金费率接近零，反映机构参与度上升但投机情绪偏冷。SOL 资金费率波动较大，基差一度超过 12%，暗示高 beta 资产存在局部过热风险。
- 偏多路径：若 BTC 维持当前低速上涨且未引发杠杆踩踏，ETH 和 SOL 的基差修复可能吸引套利资金回流，带动山寨币轮动。关键条件是 ETH/BTC 汇率企稳并反弹至 0.035 以上，否则资金将继续集中在 BTC 和少数强势山寨。
- 偏空风险：若 BTC 出现 5% 以上回调，当前低资金费率意味着多头止损盘有限，但基差快速收窄可能引发连锁清算。山寨币中，$BEAT、$EDGE 等弱势币种流动性已明显萎缩，深度不足将放大跌幅。$DOGE 和 $ZEC 的散户情绪指标若转弱，可能成为风险偏好退潮的先行信号。
- 跨市场传导逻辑：BTC 作为流动性锚点，若持续吸筹，ETH 和 SOL 的存量资金将被抽离，山寨币整体承压。但 AI 叙事 $TAO、$WLD 和 DeFi 龙头 $HYPE 仍保持独立走势，说明资金正向特定赛道集中，而非全面退潮。$JELLYJELLY、$OPG 等小市值币种的高换手率需警惕，其基差波动可能隐藏挤压风险。
结论：市场在 BTC 主导下进入选择性行情，持仓需关注资金流向而非指数涨跌。
风险：基差突然走阔或 BTC 资金费率转负可能触发结构反转。
$BTC $ETH $DOGEEntered for 100 dollars, now it's 10,000 dollars—I'm completely stunned
But I'm not talking about price increases
I meant that today there was a signal on the chain that I've been watching for half a year
Did you know Ethereum validators are leaving the queue?
Previously, ETH staking had to wait several months in line to exit it
But today, when I looked at it,
The exit queue has reset to zero
reset to zero!!
What does this mean?
All the validators who had queued up and wanted to run away had already left
Now, no one wants to sell anymore
Then guess what
Today, ETH has risen from 1851 all the way to 1889
Up 1.33%
Not violent, but in this position, it says a lot
I checked the on-chain data
AAVE also rose 2. 42%
The DeFi sector is showing signs of recovery
Previously, the ETH staking release caused AAVE's Ethereum supply to plummet
The market is worried about stETH having issues
But now, leaving the queue to zero means the most panicked times have passed
Some stakers have started to re-enter the market
There's another interesting detail
ETH's rebound volume was not large
This shows that it's not retail investors pulling the market but smart money quietly building positions
Big money won't instantly boost volume
That's just helping retail investors carry the sedan chair
They like to eat slowly during the sideways period
So my judgment is
ETH may still wear down in the short term
But the 1800 base is becoming more solid
Validator exit and zeroing is a clear bottom signal
If you don't get in the car now, it will be too late once the train actually starts
I glanced at today's news page and had a few points I wanted to mention
#韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
SK Hynix's ADR premium once soared to 51%, indicating that overseas funds were frantically buying Korean AI chip stocks. The AI arms race is accelerating; this wave is not only affecting the semiconductor market but also has a mapping effect on the crypto AI sector. The AI + Crypto narrative may be regaining momentum.
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives
Old Huang's move was quite clever. Open-source AI means expanding the ecosystem. For the crypto community, open-source models mean that on-chain AI agents can access top-tier AI capabilities for free or at low cost, accelerating the implementation of DeFi+AI. Projects like Virtuals are worth following.
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元
470 billion dollars! RWA is no longer just a concept—it's real money being put into the market. Traditional financial institutions tokenize bonds and funds on-chain, causing trading volumes for perpetual contracts to soar. This is a long-term positive for ETH and the entire DeFi ecosystem.
#以太坊 #链上数据 #DeFiThree days ago, my account still had 20,000 left, Today I saw it had increased to 80,000
Family, who understands this feeling?
When it crashed like a dog last week, I was still wondering when this lousy market would end
But it quietly bounced back over the weekend
BTC jumped directly from 63,700 to 64,400
Although that's less than a 1% increase
But you really don't say it, you really don't say it
It's already impressive that they can pull it back on this lifeless weekend
Then guess what
Market sentiment is actually seriously underestimated
Among BlockBeats' 12 indicators, there are 5 buy signals and 0 sell signals
The remaining 6 hold on
In other words, although the market is hesitant, no one wants to leave
Short sellers are cautious, while long sellers dare not increase their positions aggressively
This position is actually quite subtle
On top of $66,000 is a short position liquidation wall of 477 million
Once they break through, the bears will be caught off guard
But the question is, who will be the one to light this fire?
ETFs closed on weekends, and data could only be viewed on Monday
Friday's -225 million outflow was indeed unattractive
However, BTC has not fallen
This is the biggest trump card
If ETFs flow out, they won't dump their prices
That means spot buying is genuinely holding on
So my judgment is
This position is likely to rise horizontally
With just 66,000 yuan, breaking through the short market and missing out is a sudden takeoff
But don't chase after the high
It's not too late to act after confirming a breakout with increased volume
Returning to the hot topics outside the market, today's events are quite interesting
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
The big tech earnings season is indeed a barometer. Although Google Cloud's growth was good, advertising revenue was somewhat weak, and Tesla's deliveries also fell short of expectations. If tech stocks don't perform well before the US stock market opens, BTC will find it hard to rise on its own. But I feel the market has almost fully priced in the negative news.
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
The CLARITY Act has been a series of twists and turns. It was originally thought that the event would be implemented before the August recess, but it was postponed again. In the short term, this is negative, but in the long run, both parties are pushing forward—it's only a matter of time. A drop at this level actually presents a buying opportunity.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
This is the biggest good news this week. Geopolitical cooling is a tangible positive for risk assets. Previously, during the tense Iran situation, BTC always fell first and then rose. If there really is a ceasefire this time, risk aversion will decline and funds will flow back into the crypto world.
#盘面分析 #清算 #周末行情📊 $TRX 爆仓速览
爆仓规模
· 1小时：$659.74
· 4小时：$1,306.54
· 12小时：$1,513.68
· 24小时：$3.94万
多空分布
周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比
1h $659.74 $0 100%
4h $659.74 $646.80 50.5%
12h $797.13 $716.56 52.7%
24h $1.42万 $2.52万 36.0%
多空解读
前12小时多头爆仓略占主导（多头占比50.5%~100%），价格短时震荡下跌；但24小时周期空头爆仓$2.52万强势反超（占64.0%），方向在12-24小时间发生逆转，逼空行情全面爆发。最终胜出方：多头——呈现“前段小幅震荡→尾盘逼空爆发”格局。
时间分布
· 1小时占24小时的 1.67%
· 4小时占24小时的 3.32%
· 12小时占24小时的 3.84%
爆仓分布极度后置：前12小时合计仅占3.84%，而24小时总量是12小时的26.0倍，说明逼空行情在12-24小时间猛烈爆发（后12小时爆仓约$3.79万，占全天的96.2%）。当前处于逼空行情爆发阶段，空头尾盘遭集中清算，但总规模仍偏小，需关注持续性。
一句话解读
$TRX 24小时空头爆仓$2.52万占总量64%，前段小幅震荡后尾盘逼空全面爆发，多头完胜。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。
📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了
两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。
谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。
特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。
信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。
📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局
加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。
根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。
Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。
🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息
当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。
暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。
信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 On the US East Coast on July 26, before the market opened, SanDisk continued to fluctuate upward, with a pre-market low of $1414 and a high of $1467, a maximum gain of 4.1%, and a pre-market price of $1455; On the previous trading day (7.24), it closed down 10.79% at $1,436.56. The pre-market market was a bottom-fishing recovery after overselling, leading the rise in the storage semiconductor sector, with Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all strengthening pre-market in parallel. - Pre-market order volume continues to rise, with concentrated low limit buy orders rushing in, and short stop-loss orders closing in concentrated, creating a short-term squeeze market; - Institutions placed overnight orders mainly for buying at low prices, with several long-term funds placing large custody orders in the $1420–1450 range, absorbing panic shares from the sharp drop on July 24; - On the options capital side, pre-market trading volume for call options surged, with capital betting on August earnings reporting exceeding expectations. US stocks like the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index futures both rebounded before the market closed, easing panic in tech stocks; Capital has diverted from high-level AI application stocks to the deeply corrected storage hardware sector, with the AI computing power storage industry chain forming a resonant recovery in the sector. TrendForce and Morgan Stanley simultaneously updated their late July industry reports, raising their forecasts for NAND flash memory price increases in the third quarter, expecting NAND contract prices to rise 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter, with even greater gains for AI server-specific eSSDs. Global original factory capacity continues to tilt toward high-margin HBM, with general-purpose NAND supply shrinking, industry inventories only lasting 2–4 weeks, far below the 8–12 week safety stock line; Amazon, Microsoft, GoogleOn my way home from work in the afternoon, I kept checking the financial calendar, feeling that the market performance over the next four days probably won't be too boring. I didn't open many new positions today, mainly because all the important events in the past few days were packed together. Before the direction was released, keeping a lighter position actually helped me sleep soundly.
Looking at the financial reports released a few days ago, a clear phenomenon is that the market has recently become increasingly skeptical about financial reports. Many companies have actually weakened after the news came out, giving a bit of a "whoever releases falls" vibe. Whether these tech giants can reverse this sentiment remains to be seen.
In the coming days, what will truly impact the market is not just the earnings report, but also a series of macroeconomic data.
Federal Reserve policy meetings, Microsoft and Meta earnings, GDP, PCE inflation data, as well as earnings from Amazon and Apple, will all be released one after another, meaning both macro and fundamentals are being tested by the market.
In fact, Google, Tesla, and Nvidia have already handed over their papers ahead of schedule.
Google's free cash flow has turned negative, and Tesla's profits have nearly halved. As for Nvidia, although it still has a billion-yuan floating profit on paper and still looks strong, its high valuation and high customer concentration have persisted, which have been the risk points I've been paying close attention to recently. When the market is good, these issues are easily overlooked, but once the market starts to reprice, they may regain focus.
I personally pay more attention to Wednesdays.
At present, the market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged, so what truly affects sentiment is the signal released by Powell's speech. Personally, I believe he will remain cautious or even slightly hawkish in his wording, but the room for further tightening liquidity may be limited.
The reason is simple: global tech companies are continuously ramping up AI investments. If liquidity suddenly tightens significantly, the entire computing power supply chain will be under pressure, which may not be the outcome the market wants to see.
This time, I will focus on Microsoft's Azure business growth rate.
If it falls below 38%, I will consider reducing some related positions, because the market now has very high expectations for AI business growth. If it falls short of expectations, valuation adjustments may occur.
Meta is similar.
The stock price has not been strong over the past half year. If Zuckerberg continues to emphasize large-scale AI capital spending in the future without providing a clearer path to realize profits, I think market sentiment may remain cautious, and funds may not be willing to chase higher prices.
On Thursday, the pressure mainly came from macro data.
GDP and PCE will be released before the market opens. Currently, the market's biggest concern remains the risk of stagflation—economic growth is slowing, but inflation remains elevated. If inflation continues to stay near **2.5%**, high-valuation technology sectors may continue to face valuation pressure.
This time, Amazon is mainly focusing on AWS.
Currently, the market estimates AWS's growth rate is about 33%. If it reaches or even surpasses this level, it will still provide some support for the computing power and storage industry chains of Nvidia, SK Hynix, and Micron; If the price falls significantly short of expectations, the overall sentiment of the AI industry chain could be affected.
Apple, on the other hand, isn't that complicated. I don't care much about how much future plans management discusses; I'd rather look at the sales data in the Chinese market, because real sales data is more valuable than stories.
My biggest impression recently is that the market is indeed different from the past two years.
Previously, as long as the AI story was big enough, capital was willing to pay in advance; Nowadays, people are increasingly focused on cash flow, profitability, and the speed of realization. For companies that keep investing but still don't see commercial returns, or whose clients are too concentrated, I still remain cautious at this stage—I'd rather earn less than bear too much volatility just to gamble on expectations.
Back to today's crypto scene.
BTC is still oscillating between 65,200 and 65,400, with 65,700 above still serving as a rebound after a breakout, while 66,200–66,500 has gradually formed a new resistance zone.
ETH has gradually rebounded from around 1850 to around 1880. Although the uptrend line still provides some support, the rebound is clearly weak, and bulls have not yet shown strong sustained offensive potential.
Additionally, I noticed a detail: although ETF funds occasionally see net inflows, the overall price hasn't formed an effective follow-up trend, indicating that the current market is more like a game of internal competition among existing funds rather than new incremental funds continuously entering the market. In this situation, I still prioritize position control, waiting for all key data to materialize before deciding whether to increase the position.
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
$ETH $BTC Just went through this week's reports
Google Cloud annual growth 82%
Tesla revenue annual growth 26%
Intel data center and AI revenue annual growth 59%
Looking at just these numbers
I'd roughly say this week's earnings reports aren't bad
But after the three companies announced their earnings
The next day they fell 7.1%, 14.5%, and 7.9% respectively
That's a bit awkward
Google's quarterly CapEx is nearly $45 billion
Tesla's free cash flow turned negative $1.09 billion
Intel is also preparing to keep investing in 14A
The market isn't doubting AI usage
It's more like they don't want to just hear companies say demand is great
You say demand is great, so where's the money earned?
Google Cloud is indeed making more profit
But the whole company's cash flow is still negative due to CapEx
As for Tesla, deliveries and revenue have returned
But the money earned from cars has to be used to support Robotaxi and Optimus
Intel's core business is much better than the net loss of $11 billion on paper
But wafer foundry is still losing money
Oil prices have climbed above $100 these days
The 10-year bond yield is also close to 4.7%
Money has become more expensive
Wall Street naturally has less patience to wait for you to slowly break even
No wonder after writing these three earnings reports this week
I'm increasingly hesitant to just look at revenue Recently, SHIB has been like taking a drug—after a period of silence, it suddenly surged rapidly, breaking out of its long-term range and significantly increasing trading volume. Many people's first reaction is: "Is SHIB going to have some major positive news?" However, based on current market information, this rally is not driven by a single piece of news but by multiple factors appearing simultaneously, with capital and sentiment jointly driving this rally. The first thing worth paying attention to is the change in on-chain capital. According to CryptoQuant Exchange Netflow data, SHIB has recently experienced multiple net outflows from exchanges, with single-day net outflows reaching tens or even hundreds of billions of SHIB. Simply put, some holders are moving SHIB from exchanges to personal wallets. For the market, this means fewer tradable chips in the short term exchange, which may reduce selling pressure. Of course, withdrawals do not necessarily mean prices will rise, but in the crypto market, exchange inflows and outflows have always been an important indicator for observing capital behavior. When the market sees a large number of SHIB exits exchanges, attention also begins to focus: Is there a large amount of capital preparing in advance? Besides changes in capital flows, coin burning data has once again become a hot topic in the market. Recent Shibburn data shows that SHIB burns have significantly increased during certain periods, with single-day burns even seeing a substantial rise. Although the current scale of token burning is not yet enough to change the overall SHIB supply, for the SHIB community,$DEXE didn't crash randomly — the project's own wallets sent $6.2M to Binance.
625,000 DEXE moved from team/treasury wallets to exchange right before the dump. That's insiders positioning, not panic.
Entry: 4.20–4.40
TP1: 3.70 | TP2: 3.30 | TP3: 2.80
SL: 4.60
Thin float, most supply locked in DAO treasury — that's why moves swing violently.
Team hasn't explained the transfers. Until they do, trust stays broken.
Betting the distrust bleeds this lower.
$DEXE [HYPE continues to buy back and burn shares, fundamentals remain bullish, still depends on fee continuation]
HYPE's token supply logic is biased, with the core being whether platform revenue can be continuously converted into burning. Hyperliquid generated approximately $1.4 million in fees and burned 20,640 HYPE, valued at approximately $1.2 million, in the past 24 hours; A total of 47.27 million tokens have been burned, accounting for 4.73% of the maximum supply of 1 billion tokens.
Fee-driven buyback burns can provide quantifiable supply contraction when trading is active, but it does not guarantee a one-sided price increase and is still influenced by market transaction volume and risk appetite. If platform fees remain or grow and the burn mechanism is continuously implemented, fundamental support will be strengthened; If transaction heat drops and fees fall, the marginal push of supply narratives will weaken.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.[TSLA Sentiment Disturbed by Noise—Let's See Public Opinion Cool Down First]
Musk core assets like TSLA are more easily stirred by personality controversies in the short term, rather than immediately gaining incremental consensus. The editor-in-chief of The Economist directly criticized Musk for being out of touch with reality, amplifying European panic, and far-right rhetoric, with a tense atmosphere on site.
Musk responded forcefully, further amplifying the polarized nature of his public image. For the market, such public opinion conflicts usually increase divisions first rather than reduce uncertainty.
If the focus shifts back to products and execution, TSLA's sentiment will have a better chance of stabilizing. The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.The scale of tokens hoarded by long-term Bitcoin holders has reached a six-year high. On-chain data clearly shows that a large amount of BTC continues to flow from exchanges to private key wallets, with long-term holders continuously accumulating shares.
After enduring multiple bull and bear cycles, these long-term investors have not sold off their holdings in short-term market fluctuations; instead, they have continued to accumulate spot positions during market corrections. Historically, when long-term holders' holding sentiment reaches a temporary peak, it often means that selling pressure is gradually clearing and the bottom range is slowly forming. However, this does not mean the short-term rally will start immediately; bottoming and oscillation will remain the norm.
$BTC 📊 $AVAX Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $6.68
· 4 hours: $27,700
· 12 hours: $155,600
· 24 hours: $672,600
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $6.68 $0 100%
4h $27,100 $597.21 97.8%
12h $38,800 $116,800 24.9%
24h $54,400 $618,200 8.1%
Duokong interpretation
In the first 4 hours, long liquidations dominated (long positions accounted for 97.8%~100%), but the scale was very small, indicating a short-term opening disturbance; 12-hour short blow-ups at $116,800 suddenly overtook (75.1%), triggering a short squeeze rally; In 24 hours, short liquidations at $618,200 further crushed the bulls (accounting for 91.9%), with a full-scale and intense escalation of short squeezes. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "short-term long selling→ persistent extreme short squeezing," with bears facing devastating liquidation.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.001% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 4.12% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 23.13% of 24 hours
Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 23.13%, while the total 24-hour volume is 4.32 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that the short squeeze market escalated sharply between the 12-24 hours (about $517,000 in the last 12 hours, or 76.9% of the whole day). Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with bears suffering heavy losses, but after extreme gains, caution is needed to be aware of the risk of sharp pullbacks.
A one-sentence explanation
$AVAX 24-hour short liquidations amounted to $618,200, accounting for 91.9% of the total. The short squeeze surged sharply in the latter half, with the bulls winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress [CXMT funding rate flattened, widening divergence between bulls and bears]
Changxin-related sentiment is more like a tug-of-war, not a one-sided consensus. trade.xyz, the stock's contract was quoted at $6.3588, with an annualized funding rate of 6.2%, which has already become neutral.
The largest position was 1x short at $14.68 million, but the second and third largest addresses held long positions of $6.96 million and $5.04 million respectively, with the second largest address continuing to add positions today.
If funding rates remain stable but bullish chasing weakens, this divergence is more likely to evolve into high-level consolidation. The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.South Korean storage giant $SAMSUNG reported a net profit of 84 trillion KRW in the second quarter, directly shattering previous pessimistic expectations of a cycle peak.
After six consecutive months of net selling, pension funds have shifted to net purchases in the Korean chip sector this month, indicating institutional funds are re-examining the logic of core asset allocation.
The high profit margins of memory chips and the global supply-demand gap in computing power infrastructure form the core driving force behind the current semiconductor industry supercycle.
The current speed of earnings realization and the return path of institutional funds together validate the hedging effect of AI storage demand against downward pressure from macro fluctuations.
If memory chip profit margins can remain at current high levels and downstream server demand continues to expand, the valuation restructuring logic for the storage sector will deepen further.
If global macroeconomic volatility intensifies and downstream cloud storage demand slows, the previously accumulated overcapacity risk could trigger downward price pressure again.
Changes in the global interest rate environment and tightening dollar liquidity are core variables in assessing whether valuations in such high-capital-spending industries can be sustained.
Next week, focus will be on changes in the guidance of large tech companies on storage procurement budgets in their earnings, which will directly determine the duration of the storage supercycle.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Positive news or premature failure? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过2021年是币圈现货行情的巅峰，DeFi爆发叠加全球流动性宽松，这种行情往后很难再复刻。此后现货市场持续走下坡，一方面整体行情降温，另一方面DeFi无许可发币模式，直接冲击了中小交易所的上币费、手续费收入；后续比特币$BTC ETF分流了主流币交易量，就连头部平台也受到影响。
单纯依靠现货手续费，已经完全无法支撑交易所运营。2021年后没能搭建起永续合约这类稳定现金流业务的平台，最终只会被市场淘汰，无非是退场时间早晚、体面关停还是恶意跑路的区别。After finishing work in the afternoon, I slacked a quick look at the market. I originally thought that after Jensen Huang posted that message, NVIDIA would respond somewhat, but when I opened the market, NVDA was still fluctuating around 207, showing little change compared to last week.
The most discussed topic these past two days has been Jensen Huang's tweet.
He has joined forces with 25 companies to publicly support open-source AI models, including giants like Microsoft, Meta, and IBM. Even Elon Musk liked it in the comments. Logically, this kind of news should be considered positive, but the market performance was rather flat, and the stock price did not change significantly because of this incident.
Later, I thought about it and realized that maybe the problem isn't the news itself, but rather that the market's focus has shifted.
From a business logic perspective, open source may not necessarily be a bad thing for NVIDIA. The more open the model is, the more companies participate in development and deployment, and the faster AI applications may roll out. Ultimately, who trains or deploys the model, computing power is essential. In other words, a free model does not necessarily mean free business; on the contrary, it may bring more chip demand.
So I think Jensen Huang's support for open source this time is less about expressing a stance and more about preemptively planning the development direction of the entire AI ecosystem.
This change is especially noticeable after the Kimi K3 became open-sourced.
Since the release of this model, it has been highly discussed in the industry—not just because it's open source, but because its performance is now close to the top-tier closed-source models. At the same time, the API price is less than a third, and all model weights are made public. This combination will have a certain impact on the competitive landscape of the entire AI industry, which explains why many companies in Silicon Valley are beginning to rethink their strategies.
So I don't think the group chat saying "NVIDIA is getting anxious" is the whole answer. My understanding leans more toward Huang being the advocate for the open-source ecosystem, while also maintaining the long-term logic of future computing power demand. As for why the market didn't buy it, it's simple: right now, funds are more focused on realizing profits than on vision. What truly changes stock price expectations is the financial report data that follows.
Anyway, I don't plan to chase or bearish just because of one piece of news. News can affect sentiment, but ultimately, it comes down to performance and capital flow. Let's keep observing for now, and wait for the financial report before deciding on our next moves.
Sometimes that's just how the market is: those who move the fastest may not always win, but those who stay still may miss out on real change. Trades should respect the rhythm and not be led away by one or two pieces of news.
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives
$NVDA $IBM $SHIB Yesterday to today, it suddenly surged 40%. Many people are searching everywhere for reasons behind the increase. Even the old $LPT has pushed up the market. From another perspective, it's more like a weekend market maker testing the market, testing whether on-site funds are still active and if anyone is following them. Coincidentally, this happened during the weekend market break period.
During this weekend, overall liquidity declines, and a small amount of capital can drive significant price changes. Funds don't attack all at once without reason; usually, they first ignite the most recognizable target to see if the market is following the trend. So sometimes a weekend rally may be a capital test or a way to attract market attention by exploiting low liquidity,
But if it's just a few old coins with a brief pulse without sustained trading volume, it's mostly a game among existing funds. Beware of scams chasing $SHIB In 2018, domestic crypto exchanges flourished, with hundreds of platforms surviving by charging listing fees, developing their own tokens, and earning user losses. By 2026, the industry will face a wave of shutdowns. Besides malicious platforms running away, the core reason is that simple matchmaking trading profits are slim, user awareness keeps rising, and tightening regulations are intensifying. Leading exchanges are fiercely competing for service capabilities, making it even harder for small and medium-sized platforms to survive.
For the crypto world to usher in a new round of development, it must abandon the old speculative model, put traditional assets like US stocks and bonds on-chain at low cost, and build compliant and efficient Web3 products—something ordinary small exchanges simply cannot do.
Surviving platforms cannot just operate as speculative casinos; the key lies in integrating traditional finance with Web3, creating differentiated applications, and attracting Wall Street capital back in—this is the core of long-term development.$CORE Complete trend forecast for August-December 2026 (current price 0.01810, mainly pessimistic benchmark)
Core premise: the team and treasury will linearly unlock 700 million zero-cost tokens monthly, quantitative programs will release tiered pressure around the clock, and the staking mechanism will only lock retail investors' circulation shares. The Fed's two rounds of rate cuts in September and December will only bring a pulse rebound, unable to reverse the long-term downward trend.
1. Monthly Range, Market Characteristics, Key Resistance/Support Points
August: Weak market bottoming out, fluctuating downward
- Operating interval: 0.016 ~ 0.020
- Market logic: Meme short-term rally retreats, funds returning to BTC main line and altcoins collectively losing blood; Tens of millions of team chips are unlocked on time every month, with fixed quantitative sell orders at fixed amounts for continuous selling; Relying solely on Hong Kong institutional connections and positive PR for node expansion, there was a slight rebound within 1-2 hours, but after reaching the 0.020 resistance level, project teams concentrated shipments and quickly retreated.
- Key levels: resistance at 0.020, 0.0228; lifeline support at 0.016, effectively breaking below opens a new downward channel.
September: Interest rate cut expectations pulse rebounded, second dip after realization (the only window to reduce positions in the second half of the year)
- Operating interval: 0.013 ~ 0.0215
- Market logic: The Federal Reserve's first round of rate cuts has taken effect, liquidity is loose across the market, and short-term speculative funds are bottom-fishing, driving the strongest rebound of the year; The extreme high is unlikely to hold above 0.0215. After the positive news is realized, a "sell the fact" rally begins, with treasury collateral chips simultaneously sold off in batches; At the end of the month, funds took profits and exited, pushing back to the 0.013 low.
- Key reminder: This rebound is the best time for deeply trapped holders to reduce positions in batches; do not add positions to bottom-fish.
October: Bearish decline accelerates, support is gradually breaking down
- Operating interval: 0.0105 ~ 0.0145
- Market logic: The rate cut rally is fully digested, and market risk appetite is declining; BTCFi tracks like Stacks and Babylon continue to divert institutional funds, while CORE's SatPay and buyback narratives have not generated substantial revenue, making the market immune to positive factors; Liquidity in the market continues to shrink, with frequent spike rallies, each support level quickly breached, and there is almost no sustained rebound.
November: Narrow low-level bearish consolidation, volatility narrowing
- Operating interval: 0.009 ~ 0.0125
- Market logic: Year-end institutional funds are reducing high-risk VC counterfeit holdings for safe-haven purposes; The team unlocked shares entered the mid-release phase, with stable selling pressure; Dual pledges continue to absorb retail investors' chips and lock up positions, leaving only project teams selling in the secondary market; Throughout the day, only fake accounts were used to fake trading volume, causing a slow, gloomy decline throughout the day.
December: Year-end liquidity dries up, and a yearly low is highly likely
- Operating interval: 0.0078 ~ 0.011
- Market logic: The Fed's second round of rate cuts was implemented, but at year-end, funds from exchanges and asset management settlements exited, resulting in a gap in incremental funds; Throughout the year, narrative overdraws have led to a collective consensus on mine-hedging among off-exchange funds; Project teams are accelerating the clearance of small remaining shares, making it highly likely to see deep insertion at 0.0078, with the yearly lowest price point concentrated in mid to late December.
2. Three scenario probability simulations
1. Baseline scenario (70% probability, main market)
Gradually fluctuating and falling in a shadowy direction, the market recovery will only bring a short-term pulse lasting 1-3 days; a rebound will be a selling window; Year-end prices have nearly halved compared to now, with the core driver being continuous unlocking of selling pressure + active pressure pressure from quantitative programs.
2. Optimistic scenario (20% probability)
BTC holds above $80,000, SatPay implements generate real transaction fees and large buybacks that can be traced on-chain, temporarily surging above 0.023 but unable to hold steadily, quickly falling within three days. There is no trend reversal, only short-term betting opportunities.
3. Extreme Pessimism Scenario (10% Probability)
Global crypto regulators cracked down on market manipulation, exchanges checked CORE quantitative inverted accounts, project selling was blocked, triggering collective panic and stampede, prices directly falling below 0.007, liquidity shrinking sharply, and widening bid-ask spreads.
3. The four core underlying logics that suppressed the token price throughout
1. Perpetual selling pressure cannot be absorbed
Team shares are linearly unlocked over 36 months, with tens of millions of zero-cost tokens steadily flowing out each month in the second half of the year. Nearly 200 million yuan in treasury collateral tokens await realization. Any rebound will become a concentrated window for project teams to sell off, and market buying will never keep pace with new chip supply.
2. Quantitative programs actively lock in all upside potential
Standardized sell orders of equal value on the board are placed all day without cancellation following market trends; Whenever active buying occurs to push prices up, quantitative analysts immediately layer and allocate chips to suppress prices. Even when Meme stocks rally across the board, CORE continues to weaken independently, with no natural upward momentum.
3. The staking mechanism negatively affects retail investors
Nodes and dual staking only lock in the circulating tokens held by retail investors, reducing stop-loss selling pressure. The market is completely imbalanced, and only project teams sell on the market; The daily CORE rewards distributed through staking continue to inflate, further diluting the token price—the more staked you are, the faster your total assets shrink.
4. Competition in the track diverts funds, all the benefits are just a dream
Genuine BTCFi targets continuously capture institutional funds, CORE has no proprietary technology implementation, and on-chain TVL and trading volume are inflated by inverted inversion; The official promise of revenue buybacks is entirely off-chain and has large cash flow, but the positive news is only used to stabilize trapped shares and cannot generate sustained incremental buying.
4. Practical response plans by group
1. Deeply Trapped Positions: The September rate cut pulse rebounded to the 0.020-0.021 range to reduce positions in batches. During the decline, absolutely no additional positions are allowed to dilute costs; pledged positions wait for the unlocking cycle to end; redeem and exit immediately during the rebound. Do not passively endure long-term hedging and shrinkage.
2. Short positions and wait-and-see traders: Bottom-fishing is strictly prohibited throughout the second half of the year, with no clear bottom signal. The long selling pressure cycle has not seen a clear point, and the more bottom-fishing, the deeper the trap gets.
3. Short-term traders: Only gamble on the short-term rebound after September rate cuts, setting strict stop-losses; for other months, only short and not long. The margin for error in short-term long positions during a bearish decline is extremely low.
⚠️ Risk warning: Speculative virtual currency trading is considered illegal financial activity in China. The above is based solely on objective reasoning based on token economics and macro market conditions and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.Real-time market overview 🖥️
As of July 26, 2026, Zcash ($ZEC) is in a critical window of decisive bullish and bearish battles. Affected by the approaching Ironwood upgrade (expected to activate on July 28), ZEC has recently experienced significant volatility—after the testnet deployment on July 2, it rebounded 37% to break through $500, but the upward trend quickly reversed, dropping about 13.6% over the past week and another 3.1% in 24 hours, and has now fallen back below the $500 mark. The current price fluctuates between $487 and $502, with over $2 million in 24-hour long liquidations.
Key support and resistance levels 📊
Resistance level above:
$540 - $560 (recent strong resistance zone, multiple tests before Ironwood's upgrade failed)
$600 (mid-term key psychological threshold)
$644 - $690 (Potential upside target after breaking 560)
Support levels below:
$490 - $500 (core psychological level, currently being tested; if it falls, it will open up downside potential)
$470 (50-day SMA and rounded top pattern support)
$436 - $438 (Key mid-term support zone)
$360 - $382 (200-day EMA and liquidation heatchart next cluster area)
$250 (in extreme cases, the historical bottom during the Orchard vulnerability)
On-chain market players and capital movements 🐋
Whale buying on dips: During the roughly 42% drop in ZEC over the past two weeks, the top 100 wallet addresses increased their holdings by 8.85% (42,623 ZEC), while other whale groups grew their holdings by over 5.06%, reflecting a clear "buy on dips" strategy.
Huge short positions trapped: Hyperliquid's top ZEC contract position was shorted with 5x leverage for 50,370 ZEC (about $25.56 million), with an average position price of only $293. Currently, the unrealized loss per token is as high as $10.8 million, with a liquidation price of $712. This means that if ZEC violently surges above $712, the short will be forcibly liquidated, potentially triggering a chain of short squeezes.
Whale long positions: Previously, a whale deposited $10.12 million USDC in HyperLiquid, opening a 2x leveraged ZEC long position worth $8.1 million; Whales are also continuously building long positions in the $500 - $550 range.
Contract Data: Total market ZEC open interest is approximately $639 million. Binance whales' long-short position ratio is only 0.9379, with bears holding a slight advantage.
Positive factors ✨
Ironwood upgrade countdown: On July 28 (next Tuesday), Zcash will see the most important upgrade in its history—Ironwood (NU6.3) officially activated. By the end of May, the "unlimited minting" vulnerability in Orchard's privacy pool will be completely fixed, and a new "turnstile" mechanism will be added to ensure all fund transfers must pass through public checkpoints.
Mathematical proof nearing completion: The team responsible for the privacy pool development is nearing completion of the mathematical proof, confirming that there are no undetectable fake issuance vulnerabilities in the Zcash shielding pool; the news once drove ZEC up 12% in a single day.
Regulatory risk resolved: The SEC's investigation into the Zcash Foundation was closed in January 2026, with no enforcement action. Grayscale has submitted a Zcash spot ETF application, with potential inflows reaching up to $2 billion.
Institutional endorsement: Multicoin Capital partners publicly expressed a bullish outlook on ZEC; Forbes has included ZEC among the top ten buys for 2026. Shielded supply hits a record high.
Bearish factors ⚠️
"Exhausting all positive news" risk: The Ironwood upgrade is a positive factor the market has fully anticipated, and historically, Zcash upgrades often show "sell the facts" trend. Trading volume has shrunk by 70% from its peak.
The $500 level has been breached: Since May, the $500 level has repeatedly shifted between support and resistance, and after this break, this level has returned to a supply zone. If a quick recovery is not achieved, the bearish target is $360 or even $250.
Technical indicators have broadly weakened: the 4-hour RSI is approaching the oversold zone but has not yet reversed; MACD line remains below the signal line; AD indicators show continued weak demand in July; The price is below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages.
Macro liquidity tightens: Nasdaq plunges, U.S. Treasury yields rise to an 18-month high of 4.70%, and Bitcoin ETFs see a single-day net outflow of $225 million. The fear index was only 29, indicating "extreme fear."
Comprehensive assessment 🧐
$ZEC is currently in a critical period of strategic maneuvering before Ironwood's upgrade. On one hand, whales continue to accumulate shares amid declines, and the expectations of fundamental improvement brought by upgrades provide medium-term support; On the other hand, the loss of the $500 level and the broad weakening of technical indicators put pressure on short-term performance. July 25-28 is the window of greatest volatility, with both bulls and bears waiting for the direction after the upgrade is implemented.
In the short term, watch whether the $490–$500 level can hold—if it stabilizes and rebounds, the first target is $540–$560; If a break is confirmed, it could further decline to $470 or even $436. The $25.56 million short whale on Hyperliquid (liquidation price $712) is a potential short squeeze catalyst, but it requires sufficient buying strength to trigger. It is recommended to remain cautious until the upgrade is confirmed and the daily chart confirms it holds above $560.
The above analysis is based on publicly available market data and does not constitute any investment advice. Please assess the risks yourself. $ZEC #美军暂停对伊空袭, progress in the Strait navigation negotiations #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Gate’s explanation is this: When we remitted the agreed‑upon 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD tokens to the “fraudster’s” wallet, Gate’s Alpha system happened to automatically scoop up the ALD tokens. Subsequently, they claimed they couldn’t disclose who handled the listing process. In the end, the fraudster’s wallet transferred the funds into Gate Alpha for an airdrop. Is that correct?
Here’s the hash:
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
When a project has paid, completed the listing, and then is told, “The person you were communicating with wasn’t one of ours, and the project has been listed on Gate”—is that Gate’s official response?
Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子的钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？
哈希在这里：
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这是Gate的回答对吗？Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子的钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？
哈希在这里：
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这是Gate的回答对吗？
Gate’s explanation is this: When we remitted the agreed‑upon 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD tokens to the “fraudster’s” wallet, Gate’s Alpha system happened to automatically scoop up the ALD tokens. Subsequently, they claimed they couldn’t disclose who handled the listing process. In the end, the fraudster’s wallet transferred the funds into Gate Alpha for an airdrop. Is that correct?
Here’s the hash:
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
When a project has paid, completed the listing, and then is told, “The person you were communicating with wasn’t one of ours, and the project has been listed on Gate”—is that Gate’s official response?I learned the hard way that cryptocurrency prices often react to headlines long before the real impact on the chain or in the market appears. That's why I pay more attention to what's going on around than I do to my daily price candlesticks.
Senator Cynthia Loomis's latest attempt, after she said that President Trump agreed to abide by the ethics bill's provisions, seems like an important change because ethics has been one of the biggest barriers to gaining broader political support. At the same time, legislation is still far from substantive. Democrats are still wondering how to enforce those rules, and the Senate still needs enough bipartisan votes before anything can become law.
What catches my attention is not just . . . A clearer regulatory framework could give exchanges, stablecoin issuers, developers, and institutional investors more confidence to build projects in the United States. This kind of certainty matters much more than a short-lived bullish wave led by speculation.
However, I try not to confuse optimism with certainty. The market usually pricing in political forecasts before the final votes are counted, and if negotiations falter again, the mood can quickly turn around.
Follow up, please. $BTC Ripple 是那个 "让银行成为 Bitcoin 之后被淘汰的东西" 的公司。现在它花了 $40 亿把自己买成了银行。
Custody、prime brokerage、treasury 都是收购来的。Ripple Prime 清算了 $3 万亿+ 这季度翻了 3 倍。
反银行变成了银行。这个剧本我们已经见过——Coinbase 进标普 500，Circle 谋 IPO，Block 当银行。Crypto 企业的终点不是 Launchpad，是牌照。
区别是 Ripple 曾是金融体系最激进的反对者。现在反对者直接物种进化进了体系。Is a 147% increase in one day news? It doesn't matter. Importantly, DEXE futures have a daily trading volume of $3 billion, ranking third after BTC and ETH—even higher than SOL.
The trading volume of token futures at $366M exceeds that of a $75 L1: either someone is heavily positioned seeking exposure or gambling.
Abnormal turnover — OI only $76M flowed into futures but had $3 billion in volume, with average open interest less than 3 hours. This is not an investment, it's a gamble.
Don't just be bullish: under this volume-price structure, $366M could become $500M in 30 minutes—or possibly $0.ETH's long-short ratio was 2.38, 32% higher than BTC's 1.81—the most aggressive long on the market, bar none.
But the irony came: the latest funding rate just turned negative (-0.0019%). This means the bears are starting to charge the bulls.
On one hand, the long-short ratio hit a recent high, while on the other, the rate turned negative. It's not consensus, it's stalemate: bulls bet on recovery, bears bet they won't hold on. BTC and ZEC also experienced negative funding on the same day, with three major coins simultaneously experiencing short positions and beginning to collect funds.
ETH is up +1% this week and BTC is down 0.5%. Bulls are right for now—but bulls are 2.4 times more than bears and haven't pulled the positive rate back up, so the volatility will be dramatic.Real-time market overview 🖥️
As of July 26, 2026, $KAITO price is around $1.19, having briefly reached a high of $1.21 intraday. The 1.18 you mentioned around that point should be the instantaneous price during the day's extreme surge. The 30-day cumulative increase reached +134.68%, and the 90-day increase was +153.63%. The 24-hour trading volume was about $5.71 million, with open interest surging +30.08% in 24 hours to $157 million. Futures traded $268 million vs. spot $18.3 million, with leverage as high as 14.6x.
Key support and resistance levels 📊
Resistance above: 1.1145 (24-hour high, direct resistance); 1.18 (extreme price spike); 1.25+ (previous institutional target level).
Support below: 1.02 - 1.00 (core psychological level, bullish lifeline); 0.98 (short-term divergence warning level); 0.78 (concentrated area of the contract liquidation heatmap).
On-chain market players and capital movements 🐋
Contract long positions are extremely crowded: 264 whales hold a total of $37.3 million in the KAITO contract, with a long-short ratio as high as 155.96%. Eighty-six whales hold large long positions, with unrealized gains exceeding $3.52 million.
Retail Investors Dominate the Market: Whale-to-Retail Ratio Data shows retail investors have fully controlled market trends, marking the first time since January 14.
Mounting Selling Pressure: Spot market data shows total sales of about $3.22 million versus total buys of $2.77 million, resulting in a net outflow of about $447,000.
Team Release Doubts: An address associated with the Kaito team transferred 5 million KAITO (about $5 million) to Binance 7 days ago, questioned for "knowing in advance about negative news and selling in advance."
Positive factors ✨
X platform's first AI Data collaboration: X officially announced its partnership with Kaito, seen as a key data choice for the Musk system in the AI war.
Product Expansion: Kaito Pro has launched a stock section, tracking sentiment, price, and other indicators for 3,000+ global stocks.
High staking yields: Founder Yu Hu announced that staking rewards are now live, with about 10% of tokens staked, offering an annualized yield of up to 70%.
Bearish factors ⚠️
Large-scale token unlock: On July 20, $KAITO worth $15.84 million was unlocked, accounting for 7.29% of circulating supply.
Staking unlock peak: Kaito's staking unlock has recently peaked, increasing potential selling pressure.
Yaps phased down: Kaito will gradually delist Yaps and the incentive leaderboard, which may affect community activity and short-term sentiment.
Vulnerability led by retail investors: Markets led by retail investors usually have poor sustainability, and once sentiment shifts, they can easily trigger stampedes.
Comprehensive assessment 🧐
KAITO is currently in a retail investor short squeeze, with a 30-day +134% gain that has significantly pushed it away from its short-term technical moving average. Contract open interest surged 30% to $157 million, with bulls highly crowded and a pullback risk that cannot be ignored. 1.02 - 1.00 is the bullish lifeline; if it falls, it could trigger a chain liquidation, pushing down to around 0.78. The $15.84 million token unlock on July 20 and the team's $5 million transfer suspicions pose potential negative factors. Although the X cooperation narrative provides medium-term support, the short-term risk of chasing higher prices is significant. It is recommended to closely monitor whether funding rates rise rapidly. $KAITO #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard 🚨 #CLARITYActStalled
The CLARITY Act is facing delays, with Senate Majority Leader Thune suggesting it may not pass before the August recess.
The biggest challenge appears to be political pressure around crypto-related ethics concerns. Critics argue the current rules may not go far enough, pointing to unclear ownership guidelines, limited enforcement, and an expiration date for the ethics provisions.
The bill is now caught between three major battles:
⚖️ Democrats pushing for stronger ethics protections
🏦 Banks raising concerns over stablecoin yield rules
👀 Political conflict-of-interest concerns surrounding crypto gains
Meanwhile, lawmakers like Gallego and Tillis continue working on a compromise, with recent drafts adding incentives for white-hat hacker disclosures.
📉 Prediction markets have reduced the odds of passage this year, adding uncertainty after crypto-related stocks previously rallied on CLARITY progress.
The big question: how much of that optimism gets priced back out if delays continue?
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause BTC is rising, and a few names on the altcoin leaderboard are shining, but do you really think this is altseason?
Then why are most coins still stuck in place?
Let's look at some solid data: currently, less than 10% of altcoins are hitting short-term new highs, while over 70% of tokens have seen daily trading volume decline over the past week. This isn’t a lively party; it’s more like a carefully curated VIP dinner—only a few get invitations, while most are left outside in the cold.
Market sentiment is actually very divided. On the surface, BTC is holding strong at high levels, strong performers like $SOL and $HYPE are leading, and AI narratives like $TAO and $WLD are still embraced by capital. But if you focus on those forgotten names—$BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP—you’ll find their buy orders just can’t sustain; prices rise a bit and then get slammed back down.
My own feeling is: the sentiment is a bit too eager. People shout altseason at the sight of a single green candle, but this mindset makes it easy to get trapped. A true altseason should be like a tide of liquidity washing over the beach, covering most corners, not just concentrated on a few isolated islands.
So what is capital doing now?
- It’s very selective, only going to coins with narrative support, market maker backing, or clear community faith.
- It doesn’t linger; it pulls out after a rise, giving no safety for chasing highs.
- It keeps flowing back into BTC for safety, indicating risk appetite hasn’t truly opened up.
Therefore, bulls say: BTC is stable, capital will eventually spill over, this is just a warm-up. Bears say: this uneven hot-and-cold market looks more like a liquidity trap than a start signal.
I lean toward the latter’s caution. Sentiment isn’t hot enough, breadth isn’t wide enough, and real confirmation signals—like most altcoins’ 20-day moving averages turning up together and volume expanding in sync—haven’t appeared yet.
Be patient, let the market produce results first, it’s not too late to get on board later.
Not investment advice, please judge for yourself. $BTC $ETH $SOL $HYPE #Crypto #Altseason #MarketSentimentTomorrow, the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer #长鑫科技 will be listed on the A-share market
Code: 688825
Issue price: ¥8.66
Issue market value: ¥579.2 billion
The CXMT pre-market contract on Hyperliquid has already reported about $6.09, equivalent to ¥41 RMB, corresponding to a market value of about ¥2.76 trillion
Main players in the global DRAM market:
Samsung: about 40%, market value about $1.3 trillion
SK Hynix: about 30%, market value about $1.3 trillion
Micron: about 20%, market value about $1 trillion
Changxin: about 7.7%, issue market value about $81 billion
Predicted opening price 32–38 yuan, intraday may challenge the HYPE implied 41 yuan; if it rushes above 45 yuan, corresponding market value exceeds ¥3 trillion, short-term sentiment may already be overheated.
#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 "Jensen Huang's 950 Billion Yuan Deal in Korea: Don't Be Fooled by the Numbers, The Market Will Vote with Its Feet"
Jensen Huang, Lee Zaiming, and Lee Zairong sat around the table, raising their glasses and drinking happily.
A $950 billion chip order has been finalized, nearly half of South Korea's annual GDP. But on the same day, SK Hynix fell more than 8%, SanDisk dropped over 10%, and Intel dropped more than 7%.
The stocks that signed the largest orders fell the hardest. The market is voting with its feet. Will the U.S. stocks in the memory and chip sectors continue to fall going forward?
What is 950 billion? Not cash transfer, but "intended amount"
Including cumulative revenue over the next few years, upstream and downstream supporting facilities, and even repeated calculations. Essentially, it is a ten-year framework agreement, not a one-time order. Politics needs big numbers, capital markets need real cash flow: when the two clash, stock prices speak first.
Why did SK Hynix drop the most? Long-term agreements are a double-edged sword
SK Hynix has signed a long-term HBM supply agreement with Nvidia, locking in price and quantity. During price hike cycles, long-term contracts act as a protective umbrella, locking in low prices; During price decline cycles, long-term contracts are the ceiling; if high-priced supply meets spot price drops, profits are actually suppressed.
What's even more subtle is that Nvidia's costs have been locked in, and prices continue to rise. SK Hynix signed a "profit ceiling + cost floor" indenture contract.
Impact on Micron (MU): Structural threats outweigh positives
NVIDIA needs Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron suppliers; Micron is a "spare tire" and will not be completely eliminated.
However, Micron's HBM4 engineering sample pin rates are lower than Samsung and Hynix. SemiAnalysis predicts SK Hynix accounts for 70% of Nvidia's HBM4 supply and Samsung 30%, so Micron may miss out on Rubin's first year of mass production.
Micron's core logic has not collapsed, but its competitive advantage is shrinking.
Favorable factors: Micron's forward P/E ratio is only 9.2 times (Nasdaq average 25 times), explosive growth in AI memory demand, and Nvidia's need to diversify procurement to avoid being choked by a single supplier
Negative factors: HBM4 technology is lagging behind, the "duopoly structure" is forming in the HBM market, and the 950 billion yuan order further secures the long-term position of Korean manufacturers.
If HBM4 falls behind again, Micron will be squeezed to the edge of low profits, and its competitive advantage is shrinking.
How should we view stocks in the storage sector going forward?
In the short term: the 950 billion positive news has been priced in by the market, and sector-based sell-offs may continue.
Medium-term: SK Hynix's long-term contract locks in revenue visibility, but price risk needs to be verified; Micron's HBM4 certification and capacity ramp-up schedule determine the pace of recovery.
In the long term: the Korean giants have already secured a first-mover advantage. Micron's core variable is not this big order, but whether HBM4 can catch up.
To sum it up in one sentence
The essence of the 950 billion yuan order is a "certainty confirmation" for the AI storage sector, not a "lifeline" for Micron.
Micron's current forward P/E ratio is only 9 times, and pessimistic expectations have been fully realized. However, if HBM4 technology progress cannot catch up with Korean brands, valuation recovery will be permanently limited. The real catalyst to watch: whether Micron's HBM4 engineering samples can pass Nvidia's full certification by 2027; if so, it would be a confirmation signal of a mid-term bottom rebound.韩国"抱紧"英伟达：6.5万亿天价订单-利好哪些行业？中国怎么办？
这场"旧金山AI峰会"上，韩国发布了《旧金山人工智能宣言》，核心就一句话：把韩国打造成全球AI供应链不可替代的核心枢纽。具体订单拆成几块：
1.SK集团↔英伟达：7500亿美元
SK集团与英伟达等美国科技巨头达成5年期先进存储半导体长期供应协议，规模7500亿美元；
SK海力士与英伟达建立长期伙伴，确保下一代内存供应，并共同开发用于AI训练、AI代理、物理AI的HBM；
SK Telecom将采用英伟达Vera Rubin芯片 + SK海力士HBM4，在韩建设2GW级数据中心，首个设施2027年上线；
Anthropic也已向SK海力士下单，用于自研芯片。
2.三星电子↔博通：2000亿美元（MOU）
5年期，覆盖先进存储供应 + AI芯片晶圆代工；
三星向博通提供HBM，并开放晶圆代工产能；双方基于三星HBM技术联合开发博通下一代AI加速器；
三星提供sub-2nm（亚2纳米）代工 + 2.5D/2.5D先进封装。
3. AI数据中心：约5GW、约200万颗GPU韩企与海外巨头推进约5GW数据中心建设及约200万颗GPU的供应合作。
4.Naver↔ 英伟达：100亿美元建设100亿美元级"全球AI工厂"。
5. 物理AI / 机器人 / 自动驾驶现代汽车与英伟达共建"机器人参考平台"，联合开发自动驾驶轿车，并与Waymo合作打造自动驾驶生态；三星SDS与Anthropic签战略伙伴；Anthropic与韩国科技部签AI安全合作备忘录。
本质：这是一场"产能换产能"的深度绑定——韩国拿出HBM和先进存储产能，换英伟达的GPU和AI基建落地。美国AI巨头借此锁死了未来5年的高端存储供给。
直接受益（产能方）：
HBM与高端存储：SK海力士、三星，以及作为"第三极"溢出受益的美光（韩系产能被锁死后，美光拿到约1000亿美元保底长协）；
先进封装（2.5D/2.5D、TSV）与晶圆代工（三星sub-2nm）；
半导体设备：三大原厂2026年合计资本开支约535亿美元，HBM测试设备订单已排到两年后；
数据中心基础设施：GPU、服务器、液冷、电源、光模块、PCB/CCL。
间接受益（需求侧）：
光模块/CPO、服务器、PCB/CCL——处于AI资本开支超级周期，且有独立海外订单+国产替代双重需求；
机器人/物理AI、自动驾驶；
存储模组与封测——业绩已经开始爆发。
一句话总结：存储（尤其是HBM）成了AI时代的"硬通货"，整条算力供应链的需求天花板都被抬高了。
这是一把"双刃剑"，国内产业界也分成两派观点。
压力面（利空）：
高端HBM供给被锁死：韩企未来5年约80%–90%新增高端产能定向北美，三巨头到2027年近半数DRAM产能被长协包揽，中国想从国际市场拿到高端HBM更难；
生态位被进一步挤压：美韩形成"存储—算力—基建"闭环，中国被排除在最顶层AI芯片共生圈之外；
出口管制可能加码：同盟深化后，针对中国获取先进设备/技术的限制有收紧风险。
机会面（利好/倒逼）：
通用存储"让出的空白"由国产填补：韩企把70%+新增产能砸向HBM，主动削减消费级通用存储排产，长鑫等国产厂商成增量现货供给方；
产能被锁死，反而给国产让出阵地：三巨头没有余力降价反击，国产切入的是一个被对手主动让出的市场；
需求天花板抬高 = 增量远大于存量：国产厂商哪怕只切"国产替代"部分，绝对值也远超此前预期；
加速自主可控：正如业内判断，这是给中国云厂商和AI企业"敲警钟"——必须加速国产替代验证。
共识是：自主可控的紧迫性被显著抬高了。
明确利好：
长鑫科技（CXMT，DRAM龙头）：最直接的受益方。承接韩企让出的通用DRAM/服务器内存空白；2026年一季度营收508亿（同比+719%），上半年净利预计500–570亿；科创板IPO过会募295亿主攻HBM，计划2027年量产HBM3E，与韩企差距缩至2–3年；
长江存储（YMTC，NAND）：294层NAND量产、良率超90%，市占13%居全球第四，接近国际一线；
光模块（中际旭创、新易盛）、服务器（工业富联）、PCB/CCL（沪电、生益）：景气外溢，双重需求拉动；
封测（长电、通富）、存储模组（江波龙、德明利、佰维）、材料（华海诚科）：HBM先进封装与配套国产闭环正在形成。
承压/受损：
华为昇腾、寒武纪等国产AI芯片：真正的瓶颈不是设计，而是HBM供应。华为昇腾占国产AI芯片约43%，但因HBM不足，实际产能无法完全释放；国产HBM月产能仅约5000片，进口HBM库存预计2026年底逐步耗尽——这是美韩长协中受损最直接的环节；
消费电子下游：存储全线涨价，手机/智能终端成本上行，中小厂商面临"无货可用、用不起货"。#韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单 $NVDA #韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
The story of storage is completely told.
A new round of collapse in South Korea may be imminent.
Yesterday, on July 25, Samsung and SK Hynix signed a chip partnership agreement worth 1,375 trillion Korean won with American tech giants.
About $940 billion, which is 6.3 trillion RMB.
Over the weekend, many financial bloggers and investors said this news is a major positive.
But in fact, this is a replay of the Plaza Accord in Japan, and South Korea is bound to repeat Japan's mistakes from the 1990s.
First, originally Samsung and SK Hynix's monthly HBM capacity by the end of 2027 was 130,000 units.
But with this investment agreement and cooperation framework plan, by the end of 2027 their monthly HBM capacity will increase to 190,000 units.
The original supply shortage of HBM was expected to last until the end of 2028, but now it will be directly advanced to the end of 2027, shortening the entire industry's boom cycle by a year.
International capital of trillions will not wait until supply and demand balance at the end of 2027 to act; they usually move one to one and a half years earlier.
Second, this agreement is only a supply intention, not a rigid purchase contract.
However, Samsung and SK Hynix must now start expanding factories, investing in equipment, and begin large-scale capacity expansion.
If the commercialization and profit speed of these big companies led by Google, Microsoft, and Amazon falls behind their investment speed in AI,
they will reduce this expenditure, and the HBM capacity that Samsung and Hynix build in the future will quickly become excess capacity.
Prices will plummet, massive investments will be unrecoverable, and South Korea will face huge corporate losses, export collapse, currency depreciation, and asset price crashes.
A perfect replication of Japan's 1990s script.
So, South Korea seems to have gained the AI order dividend.
But extending the timeline, this cooperation agreement directly locks South Korea's high-end industry future development path.
The entire economic lifeline of South Korea is now completely in the hands of the Americans. 美国：对华海外子公司封禁 英伟达 ！老黄：再封，我和美国都完蛋！
美国这回又整出新活儿了。
2026年5月31号，一个普普通通的周末，美国商务部工业与安全局那帮人没歇着。他们发了一份新指引，把之前那个芯片禁令又打了个补丁。
啥补丁呢？以前中国企业在新加坡、马来西亚设个子公司，绕个道还能买到英伟达的顶级显卡。现在不行了，不看货送到哪儿，看你公司总部在哪儿。
只要最终母公司在中国，哪怕子公司开在月球上，买Blackwell、Rubin或者AMD的MI350X，统统要申请许可证。
而且这个许可证基本等于门都没有。审查政策叫推定拒绝，翻译成人话就是：你别费劲申请了，我压根不会批。
华盛顿那帮政客的脑子特别好使，他们的逻辑简单粗暴到令人心疼：芯片不卖给你，你没算力，你AI就歇菜了。他们觉得AI这玩意儿跟粮食一样，我把你粮仓烧了你就得饿死。
可问题是，AI它不是粮食啊。
你猜怎么着？就在美国商务部周末加班发指引的时候，地球另一头压根没打算在这条死胡同里跟美国人耗。
硬件买不到？行，那咱换个玩法。
7月17号凌晨，月之暗面公司甩出了一个叫Kimi K3的东西。2.8万亿参数，全球参数最大的开源模型。这数字啥概念？上一代K2才1万亿，直接翻了两倍多。
但这2.8万亿不是每次全招呼上。K3用的是MoE架构，896个专家，每次只叫醒16个。就好比你手机里存了896个外卖店的电话，但每次点餐只打最对胃口的那几家，既省钱又麻利。
更绝的是他们搞了个叫KDA的技术。传统注意力机制处理长文本的时候，每来一句新的话都得回头把前面一百万字翻一遍，越翻越慢。
KDA怎么玩呢？边读边记笔记，新东西写进去，不重要的慢慢忘掉，多数时候翻翻笔记就够了，实在不行再回头查原文。结果就是在百万Token的超长上下文里，解码速度直接飙了6.3倍。
技术突破带来的直接后果是啥？价格崩了。
DeepSeek那边已经把价格打到了地板，V4-Flash每百万Token输出才0.28美元。Kimi K3缓存命中时每百万Token输入只要2块钱人民币。
当年GPT-4刚出来的时候多少钱？30到60美元。差了整整两个数量级。
有人打了个比方特别形象。OpenAI是卖高端瓶装水的，一瓶卖你50，告诉你这是阿尔卑斯山千年雪水。中国开源大模型是直接在全城铺自来水管，一吨水卖你两块钱。你做饭、洗衣服、浇花，谁还傻乎乎去买瓶装水？
这一下，硅谷那帮闭源巨头彻底坐不住了。
OpenAI、Anthropic这帮人之前给华尔街画的大饼是这样的：投我几千亿，我建数据中心、买几十万张显卡，垄断最强模型，然后全世界的企业个人按字数给我交过路费。
结果中国开源模型直接把顶级AI免费甩脸上。这帮巨头急眼了，跑去跟美国政府告状，说中国搞不正当竞争。听听这口气，我卖50一瓶水，你免费铺水管，你犯规！
这一幕在科技史上演过多少回了？
80年代IBM大型机卖天价，Wintel兼容机一出来，价格雪崩，个人电脑爆发。90年代Unix和Windows Server收高额许可费，Linux开源生态一出来，直接统治了全球服务器。
10年代苹果iOS搞封闭，安卓开源把智能手机拉到千元级，全球几十亿人接入移动互联网。
历史规律从来没变过，闭源高价只能在技术刚出来的时候捞一把垄断利润，一旦开源跨过够用那条线，成本优势就跟自由落体似的，把高价高墙砸得稀碎。
那问题来了，英伟达的老黄，全球最大的卖铲子的，站哪边？
他站开源这边。
7月21号，老黄在德州接受Axios专访。原话是这么说的：这些中国模型非常优秀，优秀的开源模型就应该被使用。他还说美国企业绝对应该被允许用中国开源AI模型。
更狠的是这句，市场第一次误解了DeepSeek的影响，这一次又误解了Kimi的影响。
华尔街那帮人的算账方式是直线的：开源模型便宜了，企业不用买那么多显卡了，英伟达要完蛋。
但老黄脑子里算的完全是另一本账。
如果听政客和闭源巨头的，搞封锁、禁开源，那AI应用成本居高不下，只有少数万亿级巨头玩得起。全球可能只有几百家公司用AI，最终高端GPU的总需求撑死也就一千万张。
但如果拥抱开源呢？推理成本降到白菜价，全球几百万家中小企业、几千万开发者全把AI塞进自己的软件里，自动化Agent、机器人、AI流水线全面爆发，API调用次数指数级暴涨。算力消耗不但没减少，反而从点状炸成网状，需求直接干到一亿张。
老黄看得太透了。限制中国开源AI，表面上是卡中国脖子，实际上是在阉割全球AI应用的繁荣速度。应用繁荣没了，谁还买英伟达的芯片？
再封下去，英伟达先饿死，硅谷那帮卖高价API的闭源巨头跟着死，最后整个美国竞争力一起完蛋。
还有一点特别值得唠。针对政客炒作的所谓安全威胁、后门论，老黄的反驳特别高级，开放反而更安全。代码和权重都在太阳底下晒着，全球几百万安全专家都能检查漏洞。反而是把一切都锁在黑盒子里的闭源系统，才让全人类更脆弱。如果未来所有人都只能用一个模型，那整个世界就只有一个攻击目标、一个故障来源。#韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单 $NVDA EUL surged in the short term, especially around July 24, when a single-day increase exceeded 60%, mainly thanks to the official launch of Euler Finance v2, which introduced a modular lending architecture that allowed developers to easily create lending markets with custom risk parameters, greatly enhancing protocol flexibility and attractiveness; Meanwhile, the ecosystem continues to expand, with new chain deployments, increased trading volume on EulerSwap DEX, and RWA assets as collateral, further boosting market expectations for protocol revenue and utility. Coupled with the DeFi sector's warming sentiment and capital inflow, this strong rebound has been driven together.
Personally, I think this rally is quite solid—not pure hype, but a catalyst brought by real project iteration. After recovering from previous hacking incidents, Euler's v2 can be considered a rebirth, and the DeFi lending sector remains optimistic for the long term. However, the crypto market is highly volatile, and rapid rises may lead to pullbacks. It is recommended to focus on actual TVL growth and team execution before making a decision.