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On the chessboard, a pawn marked "Initial Jobless Claims" gently advances—206,000, one square more than everyone expected. The sound of the move echoes in the silent midgame; the players who were ready to sacrifice a piece for a rate cut now hesitate with their fingers hovering in midair.
I am the player sitting in the corner. In this industry for twenty years, I've learned not to judge a chess game by its surface. The initial claims data every Thursday night (Eastern Time) is just a tick on the chess clock. This week: 206,000, revised from the previous 209,000 to 212,000. On the surface, this is a "defensive reinforcement." But true grandmasters know its real intent is to adjust the tactical rhythm of the entire small king's wing. The market had almost unilaterally bet that the Fed would quickly turn dovish due to weak employment. That kind of bet is like an amateur player opening with a queen attack—focusing on a single target while ignoring that the opponent's pawn chain has quietly locked down the center.
We often say in chess: advantage is not about how many pieces you capture, but whether the position is within your calculation. This initial claims data beating expectations by 4,000 certainly reduces the urgency to turn dovish, but it doesn't change any fundamental structure. It's like Black exchanging the h-pawn for the g-pawn, seemingly affecting the pawn formation, but White's king remains safely in place, and the rook on the queen's wing is not restrained. The real big picture still hangs on the three-step deep calculation involving inflation, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC meeting. Those trembling over this small step probably forgot: the outcome of chess is never decided by a single move, but by the coordinated forces you reserve for the endgame.
And the XSKHY I’m watching is especially delicate. It’s like a queen’s knight placed on e5—advancing risks falling into the opponent’s pawn net; staying put controls two important squares simultaneously. Today's data gives it no reason to break out, nor does it bring a threat of encirclement. The board is as quiet as the moment waiting for the opponent’s king and rook to castle: all seemingly obvious attack routes hide counterattacks. In a grandmaster’s mind, every move must anticipate twenty moves ahead. The current initial claims data isn’t even a "passing pawn" in the midgame, at best a waiting move. But the market is often fooled by such waiting moves. Retail investors cheer when it’s "better than expected" and flee when it’s "worse than expected," unaware that true masters are setting up the endgame—using today’s resilience to force the Fed into a clearer dovish path in the future. When the opponent is forced to choose between "inflation defense" and "employment loosening," that’s when we gain real advantage.
So I do not move. Let those eager to "check" with one week’s data push their queens forward. My king’s wing pawns remain unmoved, the center is locked in a multi-pawn standoff, and the open lines on the queen’s wing are still controlled by my two rooks. This resume of 206,000 proves only one thing: the opponent called "the labor market" has yet to show a flaw. And my advantage lies precisely in that—you all are focused on this immediate move, while I have already written down the next twenty moves on my draft paper.
The square for move 20 still has no name.
#ImpactCycle·Weekly #MacroData·Employment #206K·Expectations210K When that stack of draft prospectuses was thrown onto the desk, I immediately smelled the rust of concrete dampness—not a design blueprint, but a damage report on the load-bearing walls.
The layout was set on June 1, with plans to reach zero elevation by the end of August; this smart company’s ambition to rush the schedule is considerable. But when you open the general structural description: annualized revenue of $65 billion, with a generously sized floor area; adjusted operating profit turned positive, but it’s just like applying a layer of moisture-proof coating on the shear walls. The truly glaring detail is the fine print—an estimated net loss of $42 billion in 2025. On any construction site, this would mean the foundation settlement exceeds the design allowable by three times—would you still dare to forcefully repair the underground garage? Structural engineers reading the prospectus first look for the load combinations: whether the IPO financing amount and the loss figures are placed under dead load or live load columns, each added load corresponds to a muffled thud on the site.
Anyone in our field knows that no matter how grand the whitepaper renderings are, they can’t beat a real structural calculation sheet. SpaceX’s $75 billion financing is equivalent to the neighboring plot building a tower crane with rocket recovery technology—that’s a proprietary patent. What about this company? The load-bearing walls are enterprise customer orders, and the permanent load is the computing power electricity cost. The higher the floors climb, the fiercer the wind load—the typhoon of large model training, can your scale law seismic system really withstand it? Q2 revenue is $11.5 billion, annualized to $65 billion, this growth rate is like a tower crane working nonstop for seventy-two hours. But every floor’s net profit is absorbed by the giant pile of computing power costs; the rebar surface is labeled "adjusted profit," but inside it’s still corroded. The green shoe mechanism of $8.62 billion? That’s just a backup footing, able to buffer uneven settlement, but it can’t fix the missing "economic cement" in the concrete mix.
I’ve reviewed countless projects by “rendering masters”: some died from foundation pit water inflow, some were destroyed by curtain wall wind pressure, some collapsed amid the opening ceremony fireworks. This secretly submitted prospectus is equivalent to digging out the zero elevation from underground, exposing it under every structural engineer’s telescope. Then everyone will ask: is the so-called "enterprise-level revenue" really a load-bearing shear wall, or just a row of light steel keel gypsum boards? The capital market’s spotlight shines on the facade lighting, but it can’t penetrate the abandoned wires hidden in the mechanical and electrical shafts. The worst isn’t the net loss figure, but that the structural system lacks a continuous load transfer path—from model training to enterprise delivery, every beam and column is temporarily assembled by outsourced teams, bolts aren’t tightened, welds aren’t inspected.
I’ve seen too many boxes that look good on the outside: glass curtain walls reflecting daylight, a twelve-meter-high lobby on the first floor, but the piping in the equipment mezzanine is tangled like a ball of yarn. Anthropic’s pre-IPO night is like suddenly requiring a wind tunnel test before topping out the building—you’ll find that the so-called "scalable" architecture drifts beyond code limits under strong wind. What does adjusted profit turning positive mean? It’s just placing settlement observation points on the non-load-bearing side. The real load test is making every dollar of revenue carry the cost of every kilowatt-hour of electricity through the load transfer path, not stamping a "passed" wink on the calculation sheet.
I won’t sign off on completion for a super high-rise without a structural calculation sheet. #AnthropicIPONears MRNA's recent movement is quite interesting
On August 19, Moderna and Merck announced the Phase 3 interim results of the mRNA cancer vaccine
The personalized vaccine combined with Keytruda showed significant superiority over Keytruda alone in melanoma
The trial enrolled 1,137 participants, achieving both primary and secondary endpoints
Previous Phase 2b five-year data: recurrence risk reduced by 49%, distant metastasis risk reduced by 59%
On the day of the announcement, the stock price surged from 63 to 174, a 177% increase
It dropped 23% the next day, closing at 133
//
This is a real scientific breakthrough
mRNA has proven itself for the first time in a large-scale cancer Phase 3 trial
No longer just a COVID vaccine
But I won’t chase it in trading
After the drop, MRNA is still 63% above the analysts' average target price of 82.62
The company posted a net loss of 782 million last quarter, with revenue of 145 million
Personalized production, costs, approvals—each step takes time
How much of the 177% surge was driven by sentiment and short covering? The 23% drop the next day partly answers that
//
Moderna indeed has a new data-backed story
But the current price already factors in many optimistic expectations
I won’t chase, but I don’t dismiss it either
Waiting for complete data, no rush
The above is purely personal observation and not investment advice. Dyor
$MU $ETH This short squeeze is even stronger than BTC's
On 8.20, a massive bullish candle of 18.5% pushed from 2,090 to 2,248, and this morning it stabilized between 2,317–2,338. In two days, it rallied from the 1,900 range by over 20%. But coinglass shows that on 8/19, ETH futures shorts were liquidated by over 1 billion dollars in a single day, which is clearly a short squeeze, not new inflow, just like BTC.
Institutions are really buying this time: spot ETFs have had net inflows for 3 consecutive days, with about 189–220 million dollars on 8/19 alone (ETHA leading with 122 million+, FETH 36.53 million+), the largest single-day inflow in nearly 9 months, with a monthly total of about 345 million. Fidelity's FETH 100% staking amendment is still going through the SEC process; the staking ETF narrative hasn't fully played out yet, which is a unique incremental logic for ETH.
However, the RSI dropped from 46.5 into the overbought zone, indicating a large short-term deviation; also, today the 30-year US Treasury weakened again, and the 10-year yield returned to 4.7%, so expectations for liquidity easing still need confirmation. Trump's call for the CLARITY Act and the SEC's 402-page rule draft are emotional fuel, not concrete positive news; this is not a realization of good news but likely expectation hype. Be careful, Trump might pull a taco on you.An easily overlooked fact: OKB currently cannot be used to offset OKX trading fees.
Therefore, an increase in OKX trading volume does not necessarily directly translate to an increase in OKB value. When analyzing OKB, more attention should be paid to X Layer's Gas, staking, and ecosystem usage.BTC has risen above 75,000, surging 10,000 in two days, and the whole network is saying the bears have been crushed.
Don't just see the short squeeze; the squeeze is only the fuse, the real strength comes from a major liquidity shift.
The 30Y US Treasury yield has soared to a new high of 5.34% since 2007, forcing the US Treasury to increase long-term bond repurchases, with market calls hoping to push it directly to 10-30 billion per month.
The money released from the bond market has to find an outlet, and BTC is the asset most sensitive to liquidity.
$BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Brothers, yesterday BTC directly surged to 69,000, and ETH also climbed back above 2000+. This move was really sudden!
The core points are three:
1. US debt repurchase doubled, liquidity expectations improved
2. Over 1.4 billion shorts were forcibly liquidated, short squeeze accelerated
3. ETF funds flowed back + regulatory signals turned warmer
Now the key question: Is this a bottom reversal signal, or just a rebound after a pure short squeeze?
My personal view: In the short term, it will most likely pull back to digest first (BTC key support at 66,500-67,000), medium term depends on whether ETF can sustain net inflows and the progress of the Clarity Act.
What do you think? Should we chase the rally directly, or wait for a pullback to get in? Share your views in the comments, I'll debate with you!$BTC $ETH People often ask me, if I give you another 10,000 yuan, can you still make it work?
If it's just a small amount of capital, constantly trial and error, giving a few more 10,000 yuan, under my 10x leverage, it's very easy to compound profits.
But what if all the funds are liquidated and only 10,000 yuan is left?
You might fall into a huge sense of loss from gaining and then losing, in an environment of constant self-doubt, not knowing if you still have the courage to stand up again.
Although in recent years I have consistently recovered from 50% drawdowns and maintained asset ATH, I still fear if the market suddenly loses liquidity, how I could make money in a situation with no volatility.
This question leads to some thoughts on how to ensure the chips in hand never get completely lost?
Doing some capital isolation, even buying some property, trying to make your safety cushion thick enough so it’s impossible to lose it all. Yesterday I watched a video by Sister Mao. She also experienced going to zero three times but is now close to entering the A9 million-dollar club. Her interview sounded like hearing a lot of principles but felt like not hearing anything at all. Haha
But if I go back to the kind of life in 2020, under pressure, I wouldn’t know how to start over. So, large capital is conservative, small capital tries high risk, which is the path needed after growing big.Key turning point signal! Treasury Secretary's major dual statements, bond market contradicted, BTC strengthens against the trend 🔥
The most core macro rhythm across the entire network, see through the current market in one sentence!
Latest dual heavy remarks from the U.S. Treasury Secretary:
✅ Middle East cools down: abandoning large-scale military actions, only using economic sanctions to suppress Iran, short-term geopolitical black swan risk relieved!
❌ Bond market contradicted: calling for increased Treasury buybacks, claiming the deficit has peaked, but U.S. Treasury yields directly rebounded and U.S. stocks plunged!
Key truth:
The Treasury's market rescue is only verbal intervention, not a Federal Reserve rate cut, treating symptoms not the root cause, the bond market completely unconvinced!
But the crypto circle shows independent resilience!
BTC surged violently 12% in two days, fundamentally not relying on liquidity, fully benefiting from the policy expectation dividend of the U.S. Clarity Act!
New variable: Japan's inflation rises, subsequent rate hike expectations heat up, global macro still hiding volatility.
⚠️ Current biggest contradiction:
Bond market pressure not relieved, macro concerns remain, the market is fully supported by crypto policy expectations!
Whether it can continue depends only on the September 15 bill vote + U.S. Treasury movement! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $ETH $SOL $DOGE After Micron's market value surpassed $1 trillion, it invested $10 billion to establish a laboratory. The core conflict lies in the risk trade-off between the near- to mid-term massive capital expenditures suppressing cash flow and the long-term AI storage pricing power.
$MU's single-day rise of 3.9% reflects market sentiment rapidly improving under high-profile political and corporate endorsements, with bullish funds concentrating short-term bets on its industry position. However, the annual $1 billion R&D combined with capital expenditure plans of $28 billion for fiscal 2026 and $47 billion for fiscal 2027 will directly alter institutions' discounted free cash flow models.
Currently, the main drivers in the market are ranked as follows: first, the increased risk appetite brought by political and client endorsements; second, the high-profit cycle of storage chips due to supply shortages; third, concerns over capital expenditure eroding cash flow. When capital expenditure jumps from $28 billion to $47 billion, marginal funds will begin to reassess profit sustainability.
The upside scenario triggers if the chip supply-demand tightness lasts longer than expected, and high profit margins can absorb the added Capex pressure. At this point, it is necessary to observe whether the free cash flow yield for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 can remain above the valuation support line; if quarterly results show continued gross margin expansion, bulls will push valuation premiums further.
The downside scenario triggers if the industry cycle peaks causing product average prices to fall, with high fixed asset depreciation and annual new investments amplifying profit elasticity downside risks. If long-term funds sensitive to high Capex begin to withdraw from the position structure, loosening chips will trigger valuation compression and lower trading targets.
For the bullish logic, invalidation signals are a reversal downward in storage chip product average prices and a reduction in the $47 billion capital expenditure plan for fiscal 2027; for the bearish logic, invalidation signals are the early achievement of high gross margin mass production of next-generation advanced packaging products, fully covering cash outflows with excess returns.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the overall risk appetite transmission in the semiconductor sector and long-term institutional position adjustments under massive Capex expectations.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大At the BTC 74939 level, institutional voices alternatingly speaking up can no longer ignite genuine buying pressure; the order book can only be observed through the actions of the most fundamental funds. Spot orders have continuous buy orders supporting between 73600 and 74000, and the perpetual funding rate has quickly returned from negative to positive, indicating that shorts are beginning to cover. Open interest contracts have accumulated above 74600, creating obvious stop-loss liquidity. Under this structure, as long as the pullback does not break 73600, the bulls control the rhythm. Once it reclaims 75200, the stop-losses of shorts above will be triggered collectively, causing a short squeeze. Just turned the car into an old neighborhood without an elevator; when the client got off, I glanced at the transaction details—there were indeed active taker orders around 74200, not fake limit orders. In terms of operation, do not chase highs; wait for a pullback to the 74200 to 74600 range to lightly buy long positions, with a stop-loss defense at 73580. If it breaks below, it means the buying pressure is fake and you must exit. The first take-profit target above is 75600, the second take-profit target is 76800, with a sufficient risk-reward ratio. If it falls below 73600 with volume, the rebound logic is directly invalidated; do not reverse positions, wait for the next accumulation zone.
$BTC
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
@OKX星球 After BTC surged, altcoins started telling their own stories.
PONS up 50% in one day (Robinhood Chain launched for a month with trading volume exceeding 2.5 billion, repurchasing and burning 28% of circulation); TRUMP meme +25%; Hyperliquid's HYPE +19%; SOL also +11%.
This kind of "platform tokens + meme + independent catalysts" rising together hasn't been seen since the end of last year.
But don't get carried away. Those who shouted "altcoin season" every time altcoins rose were trapped last year. Watching if the trading volume can sustain is more important than the price increase.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 8.21 BTC trading idea: Buy around 2330-2350, stop loss at 2300, first target 2400, second target 2450
ETH current price 2347, after yesterday's surge, the price is consolidating strongly at a high level with no obvious selling pressure release. Short-term moving averages are diverging upwards; as long as the pullback does not break 2330, the bullish trend continues. In this structure, pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Don't fear the highs. In a strong market, the less willing you are to buy, the more it rises; the longer you wait for a pullback, the less likely it will come. As long as the structure holds, following the trend to go long is much safer than trying to guess the top against the trend.
Short-term focus:
Support below: 2330-2320
Stop loss: 2300
First target above: 2400
Second target: 2450
In terms of operation, enter long positions in batches within the 2330-2350 range, with a unified stop loss at 2300. Reduce positions to protect profits when the first target 2400 is reached, and hold the remaining positions aiming for 2450. Do not go all in at once; enter in batches, control risk well, and leave the rest to the trend.
Once the trend forms, it will not end easily. Follow the trend, don't fight the market #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $ETH Maya Protocol 在 8 月 18 日遭遇了一次很少见的组合攻击。攻击者没有破解私钥。单个缺陷也不足以直接拿走资产。一笔包含 23 条消息的交易，把 6 个各自有限的问题接在了一起。 攻击链的关键，是协议把一笔已经完成的转账误判成了盗窃。按照原本的安全设计，系统会惩罚相关节点，并向受影响的流动性池补偿 CACAO。问题在于，这笔补偿没有按池子深度设置上限。一个只剩极少 LINK 的池子，因此被账面记入约 4945 万 CACAO。 更严重的是，协议先修改了池子的账面余额，之后才尝试从储备模块转入对应资产。真实转账因为余额不足而失败，但前面的状态更新没有回滚，错误也只被记录后继续执行。于是，链上出现了一笔没有真实资产支持的余额。 攻击者随后向这个接近空池的池子加入少量资产，拿到几乎全部池份额，再把账面上的 CACAO 提走并换成真实资产。这里真正失守的不是某个价格公式，而是两个基本不变量：补偿不能超过可验证的损失；账面记账与实际转账必须同时成功或同时失败。 这类事件也解释了为什么“代码审计过”不等于攻击路径已经被覆盖。单独看每个问题，可能都不足以造成损失；但批量消息、异常顺序、$BTC pulled from 68000 to 75000, the fundamental reason is not technical, but liquidity.
The U.S. Treasury announced an increase in long-term Treasury repurchases, raising the single operation limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
What does this mean? There is more money in the market, yields have dropped, and risk assets have risen.
BTC and the S&P 500 have a negative correlation of -72%, indicating this rally is macro-driven and decoupled from the stock market.
I opened a short at 72500, with a stop loss at 75000, currently at an unrealized loss.
Losing 200,000 U and recovering, understanding the fundamental reason prevents being led by the market.
No holding without a position, always set stop loss, admit mistakes when wrong, hold when right.
If 75000 can't be broken, hold the short; if 75000 is surpassed, stop loss and accept the loss.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ C加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？Bitcoin breaks through $75,000, crossing above the 200-day moving average for the first time in nine months. This rally has shattered the market's short-term bearish expectations and directly changed the assessment of the breakeven cycle for BTC holders.
1) First, look at the price reaction
2) The weight of three pieces of news
First, CoinDesk reported Bitcoin breaking $75,000, with analysts saying 'the bear market is in pain,' reflecting a shift in market sentiment from defense to offense; second, Strategy's unrealized losses on holdings narrowed to $685 million, and if the price rises another $800, it will break even, indicating increased sensitivity of large funds to price changes; third, BTC crossing above the 200-day moving average is a key technical milestone, not seen in the past nine months, suggesting the trend may be entering a new phase.
Supporting factors include BTC crossing above the 200-day moving average, forming a technical trend anchor, while institutions like Strategy recovering their positions, indicating some large funds have shifted from pessimism to a wait-and-see stance. The pressure lies in the US Treasury expanding bond buybacks; if subsequent policies turn tighter, it may weaken liquidity support for risk assets, especially potentially suppressing high-volatility assets like ETH.
Next, watch the follow-up actions of the US Treasury's bond buyback plan and whether institutions like Strategy gradually adjust their positions after the price stabilizes. If the price continues to hold above $75,000, one can observe changes in their holding structure, but it needs to be verified whether this is accompanied by real capital inflows.
This is for informational and market scenario analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.$BTC #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue?
$BTC surged to 72,000, up 11.8% in 24 hours. It had been consolidating between 64,000-65,000 for the past two months, then a big bullish candle pierced through.
Shorts were crushed. Hitting 72,000 triggered $3.49 billion in liquidations, with shorts accounting for $2.92 billion; over $3.1 billion in short liquidations occurred within two days. After two months of sideways movement, short positions had accumulated heavily, and the breakout triggered a cascade of liquidations, with buying further pushing the price up.
Three catalysts ignited simultaneously:
US Treasury repo size doubled, long bond yields declined, reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC. The White House held an emergency meeting where Trump gathered CEOs from Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, and others, urging the passage of crypto legislation by year-end; the market interpreted this as increased regulatory certainty. ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1 billion for three consecutive days, with $517 million inflow on August 19 alone, the highest since May 4; these are real cash buy orders.
$ETH rose over 19%, SOL over 13%, HYPE over 26%. Crypto concept stocks also strengthened, with MSTR up over 9% pre-market.
The key to holding above 72,000 lies in whether spot trading volume can keep up. Leverage-driven rallies require buy-side support; if spot volume is insufficient, profit-taking at high levels and renewed leverage buildup will amplify the correction. On Polymarket, the probability of reaching 75,000 by the end of this month is only 6%. 财政部刚刚“救”完美债一天，30Y又回到5.26%，所以美国真的开始YCC了吗 #美股 #AI #半导体 𝗔𝗜需求没有崩，市场正在从“买AI”变成“买确定性” 昨晚美股继续调整。 道指 -1.32%，标普500 -0.87%，纳指 -1.00%。 但半导体内部完全不是一个走势： $MRVL +5.8%
$MU +3.97%
$AVGO +0.43%
$NVDA 小幅下跌 现在的市场其实很有意思 指数在交易美债和油价，资金却开始在AI里面寻找真正有订单、有现金流的公司。 ① 最重要利好 $MU 真正的利好不是涨4%，而是海力士和三星开始把AI赚到的钱还给股东。 SK海力士宣布回购并注销40万亿韩元股票，约287亿美元，同时把股东回报政策提高到自由现金流的50%以上。 过去市场一直担心： HBM赚很多钱 → 存储厂商疯狂扩产 → 最后重新变成DRAM价格战。 但现在海力士开始把大量现金直接返还股东。 这至少说明一个问题： 𝗔𝗜存储带来的现金流，已经强到可以支撑大规模股东回报。 三星也准备提高股东回报。 所以我现在对MU的判断反而比前几天更积极。 真正值得观察的已经不是HBM价格还能BTC突破了。真正值得聊的，不是涨了多少，而是这一轮到底变了什么 截至今天 8月21日上午，BTC已经站上 $72,000附近，过去几天从$64K附近一路拉升，累计涨幅已经超过10%。更关键的是，这次直接打穿了持续数周的$62K–$66.9K震荡区间。 这一下，盘面逻辑真的变了。 之前： $62K–66K震荡 → 每次冲高都被卖 → 多头不敢追 → 空头不断加仓 现在： 突破$66K → 突破$70K → 空头止损 → 大量空单被强平 → 被迫买回BTC → 价格继续上冲 → ETH、SOL等开始跟涨 这次的上涨里，空头挤压是非常重要的加速器。过去这轮行情中，空头清算规模达到数十亿美元级别。 但如果只是逼空，我反而不会特别兴奋。 真正让我觉得有意思的是：现货资金也开始回来。 8月19日美国现货BTC ETF净流入约 $5.17亿，ETH ETF也录得约 $1.89亿净流入。也就是说，这次并不是单纯的合约市场自己玩起来了。 再加上美国财政部扩大长期美债回购规模，市场对债券流动性和美元环境的预期出现变化，也给BTC这种硬资产叙事提供了新的催化剂。 所以现在最重要的链路已经变成： 宏观流动性The U.S. is repurchasing Treasury bonds, and $BTC is already eyeing 180k?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the Treasury will regularly repurchase long-term Treasuries, with the scale possibly exceeding the previously announced $4 billion.
Macro strategist Mark Connors believes that if repurchases further expand to $10 billion to $30 billion per month, combined with relaxed bank bond-holding restrictions, pressure on long-term yields could ease, and BTC might challenge $180,000 sooner.
He thinks high-yield U.S. Treasuries will divert risk capital; repurchases pushing bond prices up and yields down could improve market liquidity.
Previously, a large number of short positions clustered around $72,000; after BTC rose above this level, the covering of shorts also amplified the rally.
However, the issue here is that Treasury repurchases do not equal direct money printing, and the initial scale of $4 billion is insufficient alone to support a Bitcoin bull market.
What really matters is whether repurchases continue to expand, whether the 10-year yield falls back, and whether U.S. dollar liquidity noticeably improves.
The $180,000 target is expected only after multiple conditions are met simultaneously; in the short term, attention should be paid to whether the CLARITY Act can make progress before September 15, otherwise cooling policy expectations may first lead to a pullback.
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 $BTC 8.21 Morning Big Cake:
Big Cake has hit a new high again! It went straight up to 75025, leaving the bears with swollen faces!
Those who previously shouted that it would fall below 70,000 are probably still confused now. This trend is clearly bullish, with all moving averages supporting the upward move, and momentum is strong. Stop stubbornly holding short positions!
The main strategy is simple: buy on dips! If it falls to 738-740 and stabilizes, get in immediately. The first target is the previous high at 750; if broken, continue aiming for 755-758, with a stop loss just below 735.
Those wanting to short can only lightly test the top. If it surges to 750-752 and stalls, play a small position to earn from the pullback and then exit. Don’t really think it can reverse; going against the trend only hurts yourself.
Remember: holding above 752 means accelerating the rally; breaking below 738 counts as a pullback. Follow the trend to profit, go against it and get hit! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #South Korea KOSPI closes up 5.9% driven by chip buybacks South Korean stock market surged 5.9% in one day, not because the economy suddenly took off, but because chip giants started returning AI earnings to shareholders.
KOSPI closed today at 6852.58 points, up 5.89% in a single day.
There are only two real engines:
SK Hynix +12.73%
Samsung Electronics +9.49%
Why such a sudden surge?
SK Hynix announced:
They will spend 40 trillion KRW, about $28.6 billion, to repurchase and cancel shares.
They also promised to return at least 50% of free cash flow to shareholders from 2025 to 2027.
Immediately after, the market also reported:
Samsung may launch a shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW, about $71.8 billion.
In one sentence:
AI chip companies used to tell the market "I can still make a lot of money," now it’s directly "I’m using the money I earned to buy back my own stock."
These two moves are on a completely different scale.
Foreign investors net bought about 1.7 trillion KRW of Korean stocks that day, combined with the decline in US long-term bond yields, reigniting risk appetite.
But don’t forget:
Samsung’s 100 trillion plan is currently just media reports; the company has not officially confirmed it.
So what I’m more focused on is not that KOSPI rose 5.9% today.
But a bigger change:
In the next phase of the AI market, the market may no longer just look at "who grows fastest," but start to look at "who can really turn AI profits into cash and return it to shareholders." 8月19日晚，美国财政部突然宣布，将美债的流动性回购规模，从每次最多20亿美元提高到至少40亿美元。消息出来后，市场迅速把它理解成财政部在给长期美债托底，30年期美债收益率从高位明显回落，美元也同步走弱。 这也直接带动了风险资产反弹，比特币一度突破7万美元，以太坊也明显走强。 但仅仅过了一天，市场又变了。 昨天美债收益率又开始重新上行，30年期收益率一度回到5.24%左右，美股则出现明显回撤。标普500下跌0.9%，纳指下跌1%，把前天的涨幅直接抹去。 看起来市场并没有因一时的利好，而接受债务会改善的预期，甚至美财长表示回购规模可能翻倍，也无济于事。 需要明确，财政部的回购计划解决的是流动性问题，但并没有解决债务和财政赤字的问题。 美国政府债务已超过40万亿美元，长期国债收益率之所以持续处在高位，并不只是因为市场缺流动性，更重要的是投资者正在要求更高的期限溢价。 简单说，财政部可以买回一些流动性较差的老债，改善市场交易，但它无法靠回购直接消除巨额财政赤字，也无法阻止未来继续发行大量国债。 所以市场第一天看到的是财政部出手了，第二天看到的却是问题依然还在。 连摩根大通都警告，如果市场认为Let's talk about SUI today, a public chain that is becoming increasingly controversial. Some say it will become the next star asset, while others feel its price increase has already been overextended. My view is that what truly determines SUI's value is not the short-term price, but the speed of ecosystem growth. Recently, more and more projects are choosing to deploy on the SUI ecosystem, and on-chain activity and capital flow remain worth watching. Many people always think about buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest, but end up missing the trend time and again. The hardest thing in a bull market is not picking coins, but holding on; in a volatile market, the hardest thing is not judging direction, but controlling position size. I won't change my long-term plan based on daily price fluctuations; I focus more on whether capital continues to flow in and whether the ecosystem continues to develop. If the overall market warms up later, SUI still has a chance to become an important target for capital rotation. Of course, every coin carries risk, and position management is always more important than emotions. Do you think SUI will be the first to break out this round, or will it continue to consolidate and build strength? Feel free to share your views in the comments. #SUI #PublicChainEcosystem #OuyiPlanet #Cryptocurrency #CryptoCommunityObservation BTC hasn't surged dramatically, so why are veteran players becoming increasingly calm? Many people think a bull market means a daily 10% jump, but in reality, major moves often happen amid sideways trading where chips are exchanged. Recently, BTC has been consolidating at high levels; many have been liquidated, but long-term holders are quietly adding to their positions. The more anxious the market sentiment, the more it indicates that funds are reshuffling. Historically, every major rally was preceded by a phase that made people doubt the bull market was still alive. Currently, on-chain funds remain active, and institutional holdings haven't seen large-scale withdrawals, which is a key reason many continue to be bullish on the market. My view is: don't chase the rally, don't panic, and don't change your long-term plan based on daily price swings. If BTC breaks through key resistance again, a new trend might attract more off-exchange capital; if it continues to consolidate, that will be an opportunity for the patient. Making money in crypto often depends less on prediction skills and more on execution and time. Do you think this BTC cycle will break new highs first, or will it continue to consolidate and shake out weak hands? #BTC #Bitcoin #OuyiPlanet #Cryptocurrency #BullMarketWatch 08.19 The whale shorting $BTC with $85.58 million is stubbornly taking hits 🙉
After being liquidated 240 BTC with a loss of $1.112 million yesterday afternoon, this morning they proactively reduced their position by 350 BTC, taking a loss of $2.581 million, lowering the margin usage rate to 101%; currently, nearly half of the 40x short position remains (610.01 BTC), valued at $45.58 million, with an unrealized loss of $4.783 million
Not everyone is as disciplined as the big target guy, who stops losses when they say so...
Portal 👉 0x66f889094739dbb7d20aa60f645acd88feba75a9$BTC On the larger time frame, there will still be a wave of pullback, but future pullbacks are unlikely to fall below 60k. This rally has turned the downtrend into a sideways consolidation.Sisters! I woke up to find my account green again (the kind of green that means making money) 💚
BTC current price 74600, +6% in 24 hours, an 11% surge in two days. The big coin that was lying flat and playing dead at 63000 just a couple of days ago shot straight up above 74000. $3 billion worth of shorts wiped out overnight, 190,000 liquidations, the largest single one at $48.8 million — short sellers, line up on the rooftop.
Why this surge? Three fires:
1. Trump’s White House summoned Coinbase and Kraken bigwigs for a meeting, pressuring Congress to pass the CLARITY Act by year-end;
2. The US Treasury doubled its long bond buybacks, yields plunged, flooding the market with liquidity, benefiting risk assets;
3. Shorts were too crowded, a little spark caused a chain reaction of stampedes.
Standard Chartered has already called for $100,000 by year-end. But note: the Senate procedural vote on September 15 is a critical juncture, and there’s still a 35% chance of a rate hike at the September FOMC, so don’t get too carried away.
Key levels: resistance at 75000 (new battleground for bulls and bears); support at 70000 and 68600 (if these hold on pullbacks, it’s a sign of strength).
In short: after a month of consolidation, the direction is finally clear. A pullback is a buying opportunity—I’ve already converted my bubble tea money into spot 🧋XRP Observation on August 21｜Understanding Account Reserves After the Heat Rises
Today, both the discussion volume and spot trading of XRP have heated up. More important than price fluctuations is understanding why the XRP Ledger simultaneously designs transaction costs and account reserves: the former is not paid to any validator but is permanently destroyed when the transaction enters the validated ledger, used to increase the cost of spam requests and network attacks.
Official documentation shows that the base cost for ordinary transactions is usually 10 drops, which dynamically increases when network load rises. Accounts must maintain a base reserve, and each object occupying ledger space held increases the owner reserve. These parameters can be adjusted by validators through a fee voting mechanism and are not permanently fixed.
Low cost and fast confirmation can reduce payment friction, but this does not mean usage will automatically grow, nor does it mean token valuation will rise with protocol parameters. Future focus should be on real settlement demand, ledger activity, liquidity, and regulatory changes.
It is also important to distinguish the relationship between XRP and its underlying ledger: technical availability can improve independently, but market price will still be influenced by supply, demand, and sentiment.
$XRP #XRP
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. $BTC has recently surged past the $72,000 mark with gains close to 15%, reaching a high near the $74,000 range, marking a new peak in over two months.
The rise is not purely driven by sentiment. The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion per operation, directly easing bond yield pressures and injecting liquidity into risk assets.
The Trump administration signaled support for clearer crypto regulation (Clarity Act), combined with White House-industry dialogues, further boosting market confidence.
Technically, BTC successfully broke out of the six-week consolidation range between $62,000 and $66,900, triggering approximately $3 billion in short liquidations, forming a classic short squeeze spiral.
On-chain data shows the short-term holder cost basis (around $68,500) has been reclaimed, and the 200-day moving average has been surpassed, shifting market structure from consolidation to a bullish recovery.
The next key resistance is concentrated near $75,800 at the "real market average"—a level representing the average cost of active investors.
If this level is effectively broken and held, it could open the door to higher price ranges. Some analyses suggest that if momentum continues, targets of $80,000 or even higher may come into view.
Currently, indicators like RSI have entered overbought territory, increasing short-term profit-taking pressure; after the short squeeze rally, if spot buying and ETF inflows fail to sustain, prices may enter a phase of high volatility consolidation. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 今天市场的核心结论是：风险偏好重新转弱，但BTC与美股之间出现了非常明显的分化。隔夜美股三大指数集体下跌，道指跌超1%，此前美国财政部扩大长期国债回购带来的利率缓解只维持了很短时间，美债收益率重新反弹。与此同时，美伊局势进一步紧张，布伦特原油已经升至接近94美元，通胀压力重新成为市场核心矛盾。反而是BTC继续大幅走强，截至发稿已经来到7.33万美元附近，短期加密市场正在表现出明显强于传统风险资产的独立性。 一、隔夜发生了什么？ 1. 美债收益率重新反弹，财政部干预带来的“利率缓解”迅速消退 事实： 隔夜美股重新出现明显调整。 道琼斯指数下跌1.32%，收于52,759.21点； 标普500下跌0.87%，收于7,641.16点； 纳斯达克综合指数下跌约1.00%，收于26,067.17点。 而就在前一天，美国财政部宣布将10—30年期长期国债的单次回购规模至少提高至40亿美元，一度推动长期美债收益率明显下降。 但昨天债券市场很快重新承压。 美国10年期国债收益率重新回到约4.70%附近，30年期收益率再次升至约5.24%。 市场反应： 此前因为长期利率下降而反弹的科技股再次受到压力，美#FinancialReportObserver: Pop Mart's Growth Shifts Gears, Can Multiple IPs Take Over?
Pop Mart just released its half-year report, here are some interesting points.
Revenue reached 17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-on-year. Sounds decent? But last year's full-year growth was 184%, so this shift feels like suddenly slamming the brakes. Adjusted net profit was 5.16 billion, with growth only 9.5%, revenue up but profit not increasing. Wang Ning openly admitted in the conference call — this year’s 20% growth target is very likely to be missed. When the boss says this, you can judge for yourself.
The IPs are noteworthy. THE MONSTERS remains the leader at 4.45 billion, but down 7.5% year-on-year. Last year, when LABUBU was hottest, Wang Ning proactively "put out the fire," halting new products and controlling licensing; this year the pace continues to slow. The successor, Star People, hit 2.65 billion in half a year, with a staggering 580% growth. CRYBABY, DIMOO, SKULLPANDA, and Little Wild all surpassed 1 billion; six IPs broke 1 billion, eleven exceeded 100 million, the matrix is taking shape.
But MOLLY dropped 33%, down to only 900 million, a 20-year-old IP clearly declining. In the trendy toy industry, there is no forever top star.
Overseas revenue is under pressure, gross margin slightly down from 70.3% to 69.7%. They responded by announcing a 2 to 5 billion buyback, giving a reassuring signal.
Judgment: The growth shift is a fact, and the multi-IP relay is initially working. Whether Star People can sustain and where the next hit will come from are key going forward. Whether LABUBU’s cooldown is justified will be clear in half a year. $DOGE 8月19日晚，美国财政部突然宣布，将美债的流动性回购规模，从每次最多20亿美元提高到至少40亿美元。消息出来后，市场迅速把它理解成财政部在给长期美债托底，30年期美债收益率从高位明显回落，美元也同步走弱。 这也直接带动了风险资产反弹，比特币一度突破7万美元，以太坊也明显走强。$ETH 但仅仅过了一天，市场又变了。 昨天美债收益率又开始重新上行，30年期收益率一度回到5.24%左右，美股则出现明显回撤。标普500下跌0.9%，纳指下跌1%，把前天的涨幅直接抹去。 看起来市场并没有因一时的利好，而接受债务会改善的预期，甚至美财长表示回购规模可能翻倍，也无济于事。 需要明确，财政部的回购计划解决的是流动性问题，但并没有解决债务和财政赤字的问题。 美国政府债务已超过40万亿美元，长期国债收益率之所以持续处在高位，并不只是因为市场缺流动性，更重要的是投资者正在要求更高的期限溢价。 简单说，财政部可以买回一些流动性较差的老债，改善市场交易，但它无法靠回购直接消除巨额财政赤字，也无法阻止未来继续发行大量国债。 所以市场第一天看到的是财政部出手了，第二天看到的却是问题依然还在。 连摩根大通都警告，扩$DOGE is up 11.56% today, spiking from $0.07243 to a high of $0.08351. On the surface, it looks like the start of a fresh rally. But the derivatives data tells a more cautious story. Open interest only rose 5.38% during the same period, while price jumped 11.56%. That means the move wasn’t driven by new leveraged positions, but rather by spot buying and short covering. In other words, the fuel here is not fresh speculative capital. The long/short account ratio confirms this. It dropped from 4.258月18日，花旗发布Custody+，把传统证券托管、实时资产服务和数字资产能力放进同一套机构平台。需要先分清阶段：Custody+已经发布，但原生加密资产托管并未在当天全面上线。花旗此前在2026年投资者日材料中称将推出原生加密资产托管；据The Block对本次公告的独立报道，服务预计今年稍晚启动，首个资产是比特币，面向机构客户。 这与“银行替所有用户买BTC”不是一回事。直接托管意味着客户持有的是原生BTC权益，由托管人负责密钥、地址管理、交易授权、账务和合规流程；ETF则是基金份额，投资者通常不能直接提取对应BTC。两种方式都能提供价格敞口，但资产法律结构、费用、交易时间和可转移性不同。 对市场的影响主要有三条。第一，机构可在熟悉的托管报表、权限和审计框架内同时管理传统资产与BTC，降低内部系统接入成本。第二，大型银行加入可能提高保险、审计、冷热钱包和多方审批等服务标准。第三，新增合规入口可能扩大可配置BTC的机构范围，但它不会自动形成等额买盘：客户是否入金、购买多少以及是否只是转入既有持仓，都要等实际数据。 风险也不能被“银行级”三个字盖住。BTC不是银行存款，不能据此假设受BTC broke through 69000, reaching an intraday high of 69888, just a breath away from 70000. Spot markets strengthened in sync, with ETH hitting a high of 2119, surging over 8% at one point.
Why the surge?
The direct trigger was the US Treasury's announcement to expand the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to plunge from the 19-year high of 5.33% to 5.19%. This long-term interest rate, which had been the tightest restraint on BTC, has loosened.
The short squeeze chain reaction amplified the gains. A large number of high-leverage short positions were stacked above 63000; once the price broke this key level, it triggered a cascade of liquidations, fueling accelerated upward momentum. Continuous net inflows into ETFs also followed, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing over $200 million inflow in a single day.
Current outlook
There is a large amount of profit-taking near 69000, so short-term consolidation is needed. The first support for a pullback is between 65800 and 66000; if the price holds this area, the next target is 71000 to 72000. If it falls below 65000, this short squeeze structure may be broken.
Trading strategy
Chasing highs is no longer cost-effective. Wait for a pullback to stabilize between 65800 and 66000 before considering long positions, with stop-loss set below 65000. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm has. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Dazhuang Study Notes｜When looking at BTC, you can't just look at a single candlestick
Today, I extended the view of BTC to three timeframes:
1️⃣ One week
Around August 15, about $63,000, now about $74,000, up nearly 18%. This round feels more like a resonance of "capital inflow + macro/policy catalysts + short squeeze after breakout."
2️⃣ Half a year
On February 21, about $68,000, touched above $82,000 in May, dropped to around $58,600 at the end of June, now back to $74,000. A net increase of about 9% over half a year, but the process was very volatile, indicating mid-term is still a wide-range oscillation with recovery.
3️⃣ Long term
BTC went from less than $0.1 in 2010 to a historical high of about $126,200 in 2025, then retreated to today. What truly drives it long-term is scarce supply, adoption rate, and global liquidity, not any single piece of news.
So I assign a weighting framework for "trend judgment in the next month":
Price structure 20%｜Macro liquidity 20%｜ETF/spot funds 20%｜Exchange net flow 15%｜Volume 10%｜OI+Funding 10%｜Liquidations 3%｜BTC market share 2%.
The first three look at direction, the middle ones verify the authenticity of the rise, and the last ones check if the market is overheated.
What’s truly useful for investors is not guessing tomorrow’s rise or fall, but watching three things:
Is money continuously coming in?
Can the breakout hold?
Is leverage piled up too high?
When data changes, views should change.
$BTC #大壮学习笔记 ETH stands above 2300, can this be considered a bull rebound?
Conclusion: For now, it can only be defined as a strong large-scale rebound, not yet a confirmed bull rebound (trend reversal).
The two main drivers of this rally:
1. Macro catalyst: The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, U.S. Treasury yields declined, rate cut expectations increased, and risk asset valuations rose.
2. Short squeeze: A large number of shorts accumulated at low levels previously, after breaking through, shorts concentrated on closing positions, leverage amplified the gains, combined with ETF capital inflows, resulting in a large bullish candlestick.
The positive factors are real, but a significant portion is driven by leveraged funds, not purely by spot buying entering unilaterally.
To judge a true "bull rebound," three hard conditions must be met, which have not all been fulfilled yet:
1. Price structure: ETH needs to increase volume and firmly hold the key resistance zone at 2500-2600 to digest the previous trapped positions; currently, it has only broken through short-term resistance, and the medium- to long-term moving averages have not yet turned upward.
2. The overall market must not lag: BTC must hold the 68000-69000 range; ETH is a high beta asset and it is difficult to have an independent major bull market; if BTC weakens, ETH’s correction will be larger.
3. Sustained capital validation: ETH spot ETFs must maintain continuous net inflows, the ETH/BTC ratio should steadily rise, and capital should continuously rotate into the Ethereum ecosystem rather than just a one- or two-day pulse inflow. $ETH #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
History is quite ironic; today's rise is exactly the same as at the end of May.
Market page: After the Q1 report on May 27, $XIAOMI hit a new low for the year at 28.4, with a single-day market cap shrinkage of 35.1 billion; at that time, profits were just under pressure. Today's Q2 is even worse—adjusted net profit year-on-year down 42.6%, a much larger decline than then, yet the stock price rose 5.12%.
This kind of "worse earnings report but stock rises" relies on the anesthesia of sequential improvement and the automotive story. Year-on-year is the truth; the deeper the divergence, the harder the fall later.
My short position hurts today, but the logic hasn't broken, so I won't exit.
$XIAOMI Dazhuang Study Diary｜Why has BTC suddenly strengthened these past two days?
A few days ago, BTC was mostly consolidating, but in the last two days, the price quickly broke out. After reviewing, I found that BTC’s rise wasn’t driven by a single positive factor, but by several forces combined:
1️⃣ ETF funds flowing back
Last week there was net outflow, but recently it clearly turned into net inflow, with real money re-entering the market.
2️⃣ Macro environment warming up
Economic data was weak, long-term interest rates fell, and market liquidity improved, encouraging trading again.
3️⃣ Price truly breaking out
BTC broke through weeks of consolidation, shifting the trend from "grinding" to "strong."
4️⃣ Short squeeze accelerating the rise
After the breakout, many shorts were forced to cover, effectively buying BTC and amplifying the price increase.
My current framework for BTC is getting clearer:
Price shows direction, ETF shows real money, OI/Funding shows leverage, liquidations show acceleration, macro shows liquidity.
BTC has clearly turned stronger now, but the recent rise is very fast.
Going forward, I’m focusing on two things:
Whether the breakout can hold, and whether ETF inflows can continue.
When data changes, views should change.
Analysis isn’t about betting on direction, but continuously updating judgments based on evidence.
$BTC #DazhuangStudyNotes $BTC Saylor sold at 63957, I shorted at 63200, BTC rose to 74000 — we were both exactly wrong
Saylor was mocked by the entire network today.
The guy who shouted "never sell" for three years, the boss of the company holding the most BTC globally. Last week he cut losses, selling 1638 coins at 63957, cost 75419, selling at a 15% loss.
Today BTC is 74000.
After he sold, the coin took off, up 15% in two days. The whole network laughed at him for "selling low at 60k" and called him a "contrarian indicator." I looked at the memes three times and laughed until crowing.
Then I couldn’t laugh anymore.
Because I was doing the exact same thing as Saylor. He sold at 63957, I shorted at 63200. He cut at 64000, I was stopped out at 63300. Same position, same belief — both thought BTC had topped out.
But one bullish candle killed the world’s biggest long and the smallest short.
The difference is: he was wrong once and lost face, smashing his "never sell" brand. I was wrong once and lost my underwear, the real money in my 400U account.
Last week I wrote four or five bearish articles: ETF withdrawals, whales running, funding rates negative to the floor — every point was true. Saylor thought the same, so he sold.
Then Trump held a meeting, SEC issued new rules, Treasury doubled buybacks. These three things combined, one bullish candle buried us both.
But I’m not here to cry today. I’m here to remind the bulls:
The short squeeze is over.
$3 billion in shorts have been liquidated, but the open interest on perpetual contracts hasn’t bounced back. In plain English — this wave was all forced liquidations, not new money entering. Shorts are dead, fuel is burned, the elevator is waiting for the next batch.
ETF players’ average cost is 82465. BlackRock at 82,206, Fidelity at 73,447. At 74000 BTC, half are still underwater. 74000 isn’t their break-even, it’s their wound.
The 200-day moving average is at 69000, yesterday a wick dipped below and then pulled back.
Chasing longs at 73000-74000 has a poor risk-reward ratio. Either wait for a pullback to 69000-70000, or wait for open interest to rise — that would mean new money is really coming in. Charging in now, you’re just the next batch of fuel.
Last week I shorted at 63200 and got stopped out. This week I’m neither shorting nor chasing. I can’t afford to chase 74000 with 400U.
I just want to ask: those who were bearish last week and got proven wrong, check in in the comments, let’s see how many are on the same page as me and Saylor. Those who bottomed at 62000 and held, you’re my dad. Those who just chased at 74000, give a shout, I want to see what this batch of fuel looks like. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ $HYPE $HYPE welcomes major policy benefits, the White House signals Hyperliquid's compliant entry into the US market 🚨
Today's biggest market narrative comes from the White House's closed-door crypto meeting, where Trump publicly stated: The CFTC chairman is fully pushing for Hyperliquid to enter the US market through a fully compliant and legal path. After the news broke, $HYPE surged violently intraday, with a peak increase of over 23%, becoming the brightest sub-sector hotspot on the board.
✅ Key highlights of this benefit
1. Major breakthrough in regulation
Hyperliquid is a leading on-chain perpetual contract platform, currently banned for US users, with many local users trading in a gray area via VPN. Now, with high-level White House endorsement, it represents the first acceptance intention from the top US authorities for DeFi derivatives, marking an industry milestone once realized.
2. Capital market linkage
The listed holding vehicle PURR also surged 31% intraday; in contrast, traditional futures exchanges CME and Cboe fell under pressure, as the market begins to price in the competitive impact of on-chain derivatives on traditional finance.
3. Solid platform fundamentals
Hyperliquid has its own L1 public chain, an on-chain order book non-custodial perpetual contract, with annual profits exceeding $900 million last year; 97% of platform revenue is used to buy back HYPE tokens, maintaining a deflationary flywheel, with business fundamentals providing solid backing.
⚠️ Important risk warnings
1. High-level statements ≠ license obtained; this only initiates the advancement process. There is still a long way to go with legislative battles, KYC, and regulatory framework negotiations. Whether the CLARITY Act passes the Senate is the biggest uncertainty, with risk of expectations not being met.
2. This rally is driven by news expectations; benefit realization or approval delays can easily trigger concentrated profit-taking and pullbacks.
3. Even if compliant entry into the US is achieved, the original protocol architecture will likely be modified and may not fully retain all functions of the current offshore version. FOMC的会议纪要出来了，9比3的投票，维持利率在3.5%-3.75%。三个鹰派——Logan、Hammack和Kashkari——铁了心要加息25个基点，但多数人还是选择按兵不动。有人会把这解读成"美联储怂了"，但仔细读纪要，你会发现措辞里藏着一句更狠的话：如果通胀停滞，紧缩随时可能卷土重来。 这话说得很精。软下来的CPI和就业数据，暂时给了美联储一个台阶下，CME的9月维持利率概率直接跳到67%。但市场可没到松口气的时候。 那风险在哪儿？纪要里点名了三件事：AI基础设施融资、股票估值、美债波动。这三样放在一起看，其实就是一句话——现在的风险资产定价，建立在"利率不会更高"的假设上。可一旦通胀数据回暖，或者AI的故事讲不动了，这个假设就会被掀桌子。 看看现在的市场联动就明白了。美股那边，Google给Anthropic砸了40亿，AI的军备竞赛还在烧钱；$xNFLX这种token跟美股标的深度绑定，AI叙事稍有风吹草动，联动就是上蹿下跳。Bitcoin倒是走出了2024年Q4以来最好的单月，IBIT的资金甚至一度翻转了Deribit，但别忘了，这轮上涨靠的是流动性预期，而不是真实的盈Since 2018, ETH has had fewer than 5 instances of RSI > 85 for two consecutive days. Historical patterns:
· Short-term (1-3 days): over 80% probability of a pullback or consolidation
· Medium-term (several weeks): depends on the macro environment (March 2024 rate cut expectations → new highs after pullback; November 2021 Fed hawkish turn → peak and crash)
🎯 Next price movement (probability ranking)
Scenario 1 (65% probability): Pullback to $2,100-$2,150, then volume contraction consolidation before resuming the uptrend
· The 200-day moving average ($2,126) is the medium-term lifeline; holding it means the bullish structure remains intact
· After RSI falls back to 65-70, target $2,480-$2,500
Scenario 2 (20% probability): High-level sideways trading, exchanging time for space
· Sideways in the $2,150-$2,270 range for 3-5 days, with RSI passively declining → very strong signal
Scenario 3 (15% probability): Break below $2,000, false breakout confirmed
· High volume long bearish candle breaking $2,003 → back to $1,850-$1,900 consolidation range
⚠️ Key validation signals
· Pullback must be on lower volume (at least 30% less than yesterday) → healthy; high volume decline → dangerous
· $2,126 (200-day MA): holding means bulls intact; losing it requires reassessment
· $2,000: once broken, short-term bullish trend is completely destroyed BTC surged from 64,000 to 73,000 in one bullish candle, ETH pushed past 2340+, with a 24h total liquidation of 3.3 billion USD across the network, shorts accounting for 3.06 billion, making up 92% of liquidations. Hyperliquid saw a single liquidation of 48.8 million USD, and 170,000 people were liquidated.
Don't be fooled by the “160 billion entering the market” narrative — this move is an epic short squeeze triggered by the Ministry of Finance's extended bond repurchase and White House summit expectations. The majority of the buying is forced short covering, not real spot money entering positions.
Chasing the highs now means catching the tail end of short covering. If 73,000 doesn't hold, it’s a ticket for the 64,000 cut-loss crowd to exit in reverse; a real breakout requires volume above 75,000 plus continuous ETF inflows to be valid. If you're itching to trade, wait for a pullback to 70,000 to see if support holds — that's more dignified than chasing this bullish candle.The entity that took profit at the $4400 high point of $ETH has added 3385.82 more tokens!
Since yesterday, a total of 16699.32 ETH has been purchased through Cowswap, with a total value exceeding 35.84 million USD, an average cost of $2146.42, and a current unrealized profit of 3.335 million USD.
The funds come from a mixer; if it's a hacker address, then they are also a top trader among hackers 😂A Morgan Stanley report states that China's international balance of payments structure has shifted to a "mirror" model, with a current account surplus reaching as high as $735 billion in 2025. However, unlike before, this surplus has not translated into an increase in official foreign exchange reserves but has been offset by a deficit of about $782 billion under the non-reserve financial account. This means that the huge foreign exchange income generated by goods trade is being reallocated to overseas assets through channels such as private sector securities investments (about $426 billion) and other investments (about $317 billion).
This year's rapid tightening of a series of outbound investment policies, hitting Futu and Qiangqiao, new outbound investment regulations, and offshore trust taxation all point to the fact that our management is preparing to initiate the realization of domestic value.
In past overseas downturns, Sino-US relations had not deteriorated to the current hostile state. In 2008, the idea that saving the US was saving oneself prevailed; in this international political environment where cooperation outweighed hostility, US authorities tended to adopt a one-time rapid clearing approach to the economic crisis, allowing the economy to drop to freezing point in a short time.
Now that China and the US are in a hostile state, allowing the economy to collapse uncontrollably on either side would only create opportunities for the opponent. Therefore, neither China nor the US will experience uncontrolled economic collapses like those in 2008 or 2015. Instead, a controlled clearing similar to the distorted operations by Paulson will take place. Under such circumstances, the economic gap between domestic and overseas will not be too large, so our management needs to build higher economic barriers to prevent the outflow of domestic value. The Treasury's debt market rescue lasted only one day: the 30-year US Treasury yield surged back to 5.25%
The day before yesterday, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond briefly hit 5.34%, the highest level since 2007. The Treasury quickly intervened, increasing the liquidity repo scale for long-term bonds from 10 to 30 years from a maximum of $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion.
The market's initial reaction was clear: the 30-year Treasury yield quickly dropped to around 5.19%. But after just one day, the situation reversed.
The latest 30-year Treasury yield has returned to around 5.25%, and the 10-year yield is back to about 4.70%. The increase brought by the Treasury's intervention has basically been given back by the bond market.
The market's concern may not just be "insufficient liquidity," but a deeper issue: the US's debt exceeding $40 trillion, long-term fiscal deficits, inflation, and the continuously increasing bond issuance in the future.
A $4 billion repo can improve market liquidity but cannot make the fiscal deficit disappear out of thin air. Interestingly, Treasury Secretary Bessent has already indicated that the repo scale could be further increased in the future.
So the real question going forward might be: if $4 billion is not enough, what about $8 billion? And if $8 billion still can't contain it?
This kind of operation is actually positive for neutral assets like $BTC
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 semi-annual report. The most noteworthy aspect of this report is not the ¥17.17 billion revenue and 23.8% year-on-year growth, but the profound structural change occurring in the IP matrix — the shift in growth pace of LABUBU and the explosive rise of Star People together form the core narrative of Pop Mart's "growth shift."
1. LABUBU Declines, Star People Takes Over
In 2025, THE MONSTERS family, which includes LABUBU, achieved annual revenue of ¥14.16 billion, a 365.7% year-on-year increase, becoming the first IP in the trendy toy market to surpass ¥10 billion. However, in the first half of 2026, THE MONSTERS revenue was ¥4.45 billion, down 7.5% year-on-year, with its revenue share dropping from 34.7% in the same period last year to 26%.
Filling this gap is Star People. This IP, which launched its first product set only in 2024, reached ¥2.65 billion in revenue in the first half of the year, a 580.6% year-on-year increase, quickly becoming the company's second-largest IP. From ¥390 million in the same period last year to ¥2.65 billion now, Star People's growth rate is phenomenal.
Meanwhile, CRYBABY, DIMOO, SKULLPANDA, and Hirono each generated revenues of ¥1.63 billion, ¥1.62 billion, ¥1.55 billion, and ¥1.01 billion respectively. In the first half, six IPs exceeded ¥1 billion in revenue, and eleven IPs surpassed ¥100 million. The diversification of the IP matrix is reducing the company's reliance on a single blockbuster.
2. Multiple IPs Taking Over, or "One for One"?
The biggest long-term concern in the market about Pop Mart has been the "LABUBU dependency." Now that LABUBU's share has declined and Star People has risen rapidly, this concern has been initially addressed. But the question of whether multiple IPs can take over is far more complex than surface data suggests.
On the positive side: Star People's rapid growth proves that Pop Mart's internal IP incubation mechanism is maturing. From 29 new IPs in 2024 to 57 in 2025, the launch frequency is nearly one per week. This strategy of "throwing dozens of IPs into the market for testing" is moving from quantitative change to qualitative change.
Challenges are also significant: THE MONSTERS revenue of ¥4.45 billion is still about 1.7 times that of Star People. LABUBU's popularity changes still have a crucial impact on the overall picture. Moreover, can Star People's explosive growth continue? Where is the next Star People? There is still a long way to go from "one super IP" to "a group of strong IPs."
3. Overseas Pressure, China Market Leading
Another signal worth noting comes from overseas markets. Overseas revenue in the first half was ¥4.972 billion, down 11.6% year-on-year. Revenue in the Americas fell 16.5%, and Asia-Pacific dropped 9.7%. Pop Mart founder Wang Ning admitted that last year's overseas boom had an element of "luck."
In stark contrast, the Chinese market revenue was ¥12.2 billion, up 47.3% year-on-year. Online channels grew 62.7%, and revenue from the blind box vending machine app surged 83.3%. The strong growth of the domestic base provides ample confidence for the company’s proactive adjustments during this "rest year."
4. Closing Remarks
Wang Ning stated in the earnings call that 2026 is the company's "restructuring year," with the core goal of solidifying the business foundation and optimizing the global channel structure, rather than pursuing short-term scale expansion. The company also announced a share repurchase plan ranging from no less than ¥2 billion to no more than ¥5 billion.
From LABUBU to Star People, from a single blockbuster to an IP matrix, Pop Mart is undergoing a transformation from "luck-driven" to "capability-driven." Whether multiple IPs can truly take over does not depend on whether a single IP can replace LABUBU, but on whether the company can continuously create the next Star People. This requires time to verify, but at least from this semi-annual report, Pop Mart has taken a crucial first step.
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The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute any investment advice.
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ SharpLink Gaming staked another 39,319 ETH 4 hours ago, worth $91 million.