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Concerns about the AI bubble are spreading from the stock market to the crypto market. However, the capital flow is showing divergence; the spot ETF just recorded the largest single-day net inflow in a month, but almost all the new inflows come from BlackRock, while Fidelity and Grayscale are still seeing outflows. Overall, new funds are not abundant and seem more like they are picking ETF issuers. JPMorgan included Bitcoin in its ten-year outlook for the first time, and BlackRock has filed for a third Bitcoin ETF. These are long-term news and do not alleviate the current pressure.
BTC is currently at 81,458, down 1.1% in 24 hours. 81,000 is the psychological bottom line for this wave; if it breaks, the next target is 80,000. On the upside, 82,500 to 82,700 is the resistance zone for this round of fluctuations; reduce positions when it rebounds to that area.
ETH is currently at 2,384, down 1.65% in 24 hours. 2,400 has already been lost; the next support is 2,350. It has dropped 5.37% over seven days, more than twice the decline of BTC, showing a clearly weaker trend. Don’t expect it to lead the rebound.
ZEC is currently at 1,140, down 0.31% in 24 hours. It is the most resistant to decline in the last 24 hours, but it has dropped 7.34% over seven days. It doubled in a month when rising but slowly declined when falling. This kind of trend is the most wearing; don’t be fooled by the single-day drop.
To be honest, what is least lacking now are stories; what is most lacking is someone to put real money in first. If the US stock market doesn’t recover, the crypto market can’t create an independent rally on its own. Those itching to trade should hold on a bit longer; don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $SOL
SkyAI liquidated all SOL, cashing out $223.8 million and exiting SOL, causing the treasury stock narrative to collapse in 30 days!
Unrealized losses exceed $150 million, major shareholders refuse to participate in buybacks and question management, severely damaging market confidence. Short-term selling pressure has landed but sentiment remains bearish; the corporate coin hoarding model has been disproven. From a long-term perspective, the resilience of the Solana ecosystem remains, SkyAI is pivoting to AI, and stablecoin infrastructure may become a new highlight.
After all the negative news is out, SOL’s trend will return to on-chain activity and application implementation, rather than the institutional coin hoarding story.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Morning, folks ☕️ while taking a break, I casually checked the market: total network open interest is 139.45 billion, a slight increase in 24 hours, with BTC, ETH, and SOL all adding positions — money is flowing in, but the direction is still a tug of war 🤼
$ETH is the most awkward: open interest at 30.748 billion, second highest gain, but 5-minute buy/sell ratio is 0.82, shorts account for 54.9%. Adding positions while selling off, 24-hour liquidation hit 111 million, 66% are shorts, shorts are being lifted, bulls are frustrated 😤
$SOL is the smoothest: open interest at 6.397 billion, fastest growth, leading gains, bulls slightly dominant. One and a half days left before the upgrade, no toggle changes, early adders have arrived 🚀
$BTC is the noisy one: open interest at 52.82 billion, smallest gain. Retail bulls still dominate, number of bearish large holders decreased, large holders hold 1.14 bias to the long side — they’re fighting among themselves 🤔
US stocks rebounded, Nasdaq up 1.57%, ETF not updated on Monday, let’s see what the on-exchange debate yields 📈
My views:
① Open interest increased but liquidations only 306 million, leverage quietly stacking, beware of sudden attacks, don’t fully load your positions ⚠️
② Retail votes with headcount, large holders vote with position size, follow the money not the talk 💰
③ SOL is the happiest but riskiest, don’t chase before the upgrade night; ETH and BTC are safer to buy on dips 🧘
Bullets loaded, don’t rush to pull the trigger. My short ant-sized position is still stuck, hoping to break even 🙏#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 别急着把昨晚的反弹当成"信心回来了"✨ 可你真的确定，这波是买盘回来了吗？ 我第一眼看到美股开盘那会儿，其实有点想笑。重工业涨跌互现，几乎五五开，真正拉指数的是科技股，纳指涨超1%。表面看是风险偏好回暖，但细看更像超卖之后的技术性修复，而不是情绪彻底翻转。资金并没有从"防守"切到"进攻"，它只是暂时停止了撤退。 这个区别很关键。因为技术性回补和真实配置盘进场，交易的是两套东西。前者快、脆、容易熄火；后者慢，但会沉淀。现在更像前者。 币圈这边也跟着动了。BTC 盘中最高涨超1.4%，但推动力主要来自空头被挤，24小时清算约1.8亿美元，其中空单约1.1亿。也就是说，这波上行更像是被"被迫买回"推着走，而不是现货资金主动追价。$ETH $ZEC $BTC 里，ETH 和 ZEC 的弹性更容易被这种回补放大，因为它们的短线仓位更敏感。 我真正关注的不是涨幅，而是资金偏好变了没有。目前看，答案偏保守：美股资金停在科技龙头里避险式抱团，币圈资金则停留在高流动性标的做短打，山寨整体没有出现全面接力的迹象。这种结构下，BTC 若想延续，需要看到现货成交和稳定币流入同步跟上；否则空头挤完，动能就容易断BTC has been very frustrated recently; every time it touches above 83000, it gets pushed back, and today it’s hovering around 81000 again. What’s going on?
Data speaks: Last week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net outflow of $593 million, with ETH alone losing $320 million from one person, marking three consecutive weeks of bleeding. The institutional buying, the core engine, is not only not stepping on the gas but is actually hitting the brakes.
Why is 83000 so critical? Because the average cost line for BTC ETF holders is around 84300. When the price approaches this area, the break-even holders flood out to sell. If you push it up, they run, so naturally, it can’t be pulled higher.
Technically, BTC is grinding back and forth between 82000-83500, with the 50-day moving average still supporting it, but the highs keep moving lower. There is strong support at 80000; if it breaks below this, it will test 79000. Resistance is at 83700, and without volume, it simply can’t break through.
My judgment is simple: without ETF inflows, this game is over. Right now, existing funds are just cutting each other in contracts; no one is taking the spot. Don’t rush to bottom-fish; wait until ETFs have two consecutive days of net inflows.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Has AI really reached the stage of a bubble bursting?
You can look at one indicator—the Nasdaq 100 divided by the Nasdaq Composite Index.
The internet or AI booms have always been led by a few leading companies.
So around 1998 to 2000, we saw an explosive growth in NDX/IXIC, which might have come from a bubble in leading internet stocks.
But from the end of 2022 until now, the rise in NDX/IXIC is not comparable to the internet bubble phase at all.
We might have to thank Trump—sometimes imposing tariffs, sometimes government shutdowns, sometimes conflicts with Iran—these factors prevented the so-called AI bubble from inflating too much before it corrected.
So now, it might also be a correction caused by the midterm elections combined with high oil prices triggered by the US-Iran situation.#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Latest market analysis on October 20: Data agency Kaiko reports that the largest liquidation event in the crypto market over the past year has not yet fully recovered.
Looking at core data: In Bitcoin terms, $BTC perpetual contract open interest is about 16% lower than before the crash; the USD-denominated spot market depth is even worse, down 27%. Leverage is decreasing faster than liquidity, with leverage per dollar of market depth 20% lower than before October 10.
Intelligence guy's interpretation: Leverage clearing is obvious, liquidity recovery is lagging. From a mid-term perspective, deleveraging is a healthy signal, but a true reversal requires liquidity replenishment.
$ETH $ZEC 黄金逼近4,200，BTC站上82,500，两个资产同一天走强。这种组合在过去一年里通常意味着什么？ 先说新闻。四个数字：黄金4,196.0（+0.36%，现货4,178.50），BTC 82,493.7（24小时 +1.62%、近一周 -0.28%），美元指数101.82（-0.02%），恐惧贪婪指数从53回升到59。资金侧，ETF连续三天小幅净流入，但5日仍净流出3.271亿、10日净流出7.3亿；股市侧，标普500上一交易日收于7,659.44（-1.09%）。 再看资金影响。黄金与BTC同涨，通常对应两种情况：一是流动性预期改善（美元走弱、实际利率下行），资金同时流入两类资产；二是避险需求与风险需求同时上升（通胀预期升温），两类资产都被用来对冲。区分两者的关键是美元和美股：如果美元走弱、美股上涨，更接近第一种；如果美元走强、美股下跌，更接近第二种。今天美元走平、美股上一交易日下跌，介于两者之间。 对BTC的含义：同涨本身是积极信号，说明资金没有在两类资产之间"二选一"。但黄金逼近4,200这个关键位置，如果突破，资金可能进一步向避险端集中，BTC反而可能被分流。所以接下来要观察The 60-day net position of Bitcoin whales has just flipped from -62,600 BTC to +5,230 BTC.
This is a key reversal spotted by CryptoQuant today: addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have ended their sustained net selling and have shifted back to accumulation. However, the spot side hasn't followed suit at all — the Coinbase premium index remains at -0.1416%, weekly exchange net inflow is 8,428 BTC, and short-term holders are still cutting losses near the breakeven line.
This divergence is worth noting because whales are usually the most sensitive money on-chain; they move first, but if spot buying doesn't catch up, the market lacks a leg to stand on. Meanwhile, USDT reserves on Binance have quietly increased from $790 million to $1.76 billion, ammo is building, but the trigger hasn't been pulled yet.
Currently, the observation that the market is transitioning from "seller exhaustion" to "potential bottoming" is more supported, but the confirmation of the bottom is not in the whales' hands, it's in the spot buyers'.
Next, focus on two things: whether the Coinbase premium index can turn positive, and whether the STH-SOPR can rise above 1. When these two signals appear simultaneously, the whales' accumulation can be considered truly supported by spot.
Whales have moved, spot hasn't — this time did the whales get it right first, or is it another premature bottom caught halfway up the mountain? Share your judgment in the comments. $BTC $ETH Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF funds showed a very striking divergence today.
On the same day, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $527 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone sweeping $665 million; meanwhile, the Ethereum spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $103 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of losses. The cumulative outflow in October has nearly reached $955 million, the largest monthly outflow this year.
This is not simply a case of a "weak market." More noteworthy is another set of data: Wall Street hedge funds reduced their short positions on Bitcoin by about 15% during the same period, while their calendar spread arbitrage positions surged by 48%. Shorts are withdrawing, but not turning bullish; rather, they are shifting from directional bets to playing the spread. At the same time, 90% of liquidations in the derivatives market over the past 4 hours were long positions, indicating longs are being cleaned out.
This combination currently supports one observation: funds are not leaving crypto but are structurally switching between Bitcoin and Ethereum. Institutional appetite for Bitcoin allocation is genuinely reflected on the ETF side, but selling pressure on Ethereum has yet to abate.
Going forward, the focus is on two things: when the outflow from Ethereum ETFs will turn positive in a single day, and whether the over $500 million inflow into Bitcoin ETFs is an isolated rebound or the start of continuous replenishment. Is ETH's current bleeding a rotation or a structural abandonment? Share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC $ETH Bitcoin has actually been quite resilient this week. Last week it almost dropped below 80,000, but then it started to rebound over the weekend. Counting from the low point near 58,000 at the end of June, it has already bounced back quite a bit, but it's still far from the high of over 120,000 in October last year. Many people see it as stable, but behind that is capital concentrating on it — Bitcoin's market dominance has climbed close to 60%, with some even saying it reached 60.7%. The meaning is simple: money is cautious and is holding tightly to the leader first.Continue to track the fundamentals of $PONS.
Currently, the PONS protocol has a daily trading volume of about 3 million USD, which may have already approached a short-term bottom.
The protocol currently generates about 50,000 USD in daily revenue. If the trading volume remains at this level, the expected daily burn amount could reach around 100,000 tokens.
Looking at Robinhood Chain, under the current market environment, I believe the on-chain trading volume still has the potential to maintain around 80 million USD.
The latest on-chain trading data for PONS also shows a recovery:
Trading volume: from 3 million USD to 3.7 million USD (+15.6%)
Platform fees: from 269,000 USD to 457,000 USD (+67.3%)
Protocol revenue: from 36,000 USD to 68,000 USD, now averaging about 50,000 USD daily (+88.9%)
Newly issued tokens: from 1,100 per day to 1,800 per day (+54.5%)
If this data rebound can continue, the fundamentals of PONS may be stabilizing. Referring to the 2023 $ORDI and $PEPE listings on exchanges with an 85% plunge, PONS is currently not at the bottom but is not far from it.DeepSeek teams up with Huawei to challenge Nvidia's AI computing power dominance: participating in next-generation chip design, aiming for domestic chip pre-training by year-end
Last year, DeepSeek attempted to train R2 using Huawei's Ascend chips but ultimately failed. The Financial Times revealed at the time that there were issues with chip stability, cross-card communication, and software support. Even with Huawei engineers stationed on-site to assist, DeepSeek eventually reverted to using Nvidia chips to complete the training.
More than a year later, the cooperation between the two parties has deepened further into hardware design. The Information now reports that Huawei engineers are permanently stationed at DeepSeek's office, directly incorporating the practical needs of model training into the design of the next-generation Ascend chips, including how to schedule computing tasks and how to transfer data between chips.
At the end of September this year, DeepSeek just open-sourced the Ascend version of TileLang, as well as underlying tools such as matrix computation and MoE expert communication, reducing the development work required to migrate models to domestic chips. However, getting the software to run is still far from complete pre-training. Tens of thousands of chips need to coordinate continuously for weeks; any single chip failure or data transmission delay could slow down the entire cluster. Now, both parties are starting to address these issues from the chip design stage.
Huawei plans to prioritize most of the supply of the Ascend 960DT, scheduled to be ready in the first quarter of 2027, to DeepS…Netflix is likely to slightly exceed EPS, with revenue probably close to guidance and unlikely to significantly surpass expectations. Price increases and ad-supported plans support profit margins, but weak user engagement growth means revenue expectations are already set quite low.
Tesla's delivery data is decent, and revenue is expected to meet targets, but exceeding EPS expectations is difficult, with a higher risk of falling short. The main pressure comes from continued automotive gross margin compression, while FSD and humanoid robot R&D continue to consume profits.
Meta's advertising fundamentals are solid, with a good chance of slightly exceeding revenue expectations, but EPS uncertainty is the highest. The biggest variable is AI computing capital expenditure; if investment continues to increase, profits are easily eroded, resulting in meeting revenue targets but missing profit expectations.
I believe all three companies will find it difficult to exceed expectations
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 Brothers, I'm optimistic about SpaceX's earnings this time
Let's first look at Q2: revenue was $7.81 billion, up about 92% year-over-year; net loss was $541 million, compared to a loss of about $1.008 billion in the same period last year; adjusted EBITDA was about $3.5 billion, up 191%
The growth is indeed strong, but positive EBITDA is a completely different matter from net profit and positive free cash flow
Starlink is an important support; last quarter, connectivity business revenue grew 66%, operating profit grew 79%, with about 12 million users, and enterprise and government customers are also contributing to growth
The biggest variable this time is the AI business; the market expects revenue to rise from about $2.56 billion last quarter to about $6.4 billion, with growth expectations already very high
The group's revenue market expectation is about $12.7 billion to $12.9 billion; I personally bet on $13.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA about $6.8 billion, adjusted EPS about $0.17
What really makes me cautious is the expenditure; the market expects capital expenditure this quarter to be about $19.6 billion, free cash flow about negative $11.6 billion; no matter how fast revenue grows, this bill must be faced
At the end of last quarter, cash and securities were about $100 billion, which looks substantial, but the IPO net fundraising was about $85.7 billion in the same period, and $25 billion in debt was issued; not all of this can be considered money earned from operations
So I bet on strong performance, but for the stock price to keep rising, we still need to see AI contracts fulfilled and payment collection improved
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 昨日的市场从形态上看走得十分崎岖，但从资金行为上看我仍然想用“有趣”来形容。美盘时段市场分歧较大，随后在82000附近横盘时，现货资金出现了大规模且持续的主动性买盘，但价格纹丝不动，核心原因是被上方大量的现货端的抛压吸收。在主动性的买盘暂停后，并伴随合约端的主动性卖盘，价格随之出现了下跌。短暂小幅波动后，价格来到81500附近继续横盘整理，更有趣的是，在此期间，现货端主动性买盘再次发起进攻，然而价格依旧纹丝不动，通过OI和资金费率我们可以较为清晰地判断出此轮上方的吸收卖盘由合约端提供且币本位主导。 也就是说在亚盘和欧盘时段接连出现了两次现货端的主动性买盘被持续强吸收，且两次吸收分别来自现货端和合约端。这不禁让我们再次重新评估当前的多空双方对当前震荡区间争夺的决心。如果我们整理一下当前的数据，很难得到某一方占据绝对优势的结论，但综合来看目前空头占据略高主导地位，抛压的确在横盘期间被囤币群体持续吸收，但当市场持续出现更多更大量的抛压时，市场可能要面临再一次的回撤去寻找新的价格接受区。且空头也面临在低位下杀的进攻性卖盘能力不足的关键问题，以及部分追空资金末期进场充当轧空燃料的危险。同样的，多表面横盘，底下暗流：$BTC 在82,000美元附近几乎走平，$ETH 报2,408美元仅微涨，弱势格局未改。但真正值得盯的不是价格，而是资金的分层——上周现货BTC与ETH ETF合计净流出约5.49亿美元，其中ETH单独失血3.2亿美元，为两者中最重。二级市场在撤，链上长线却在建仓，这种背离才是当下最该读懂的信号📉 企业端的动作与ETF流向形成鲜明对照。Strive上周以约82,803美元均价增持3.35亿美元BTC，说明一部分资产负债表玩家把当前区间视为配置窗口，而非离场理由。同一时间，BlackRock递交了“比特币保护型管理ETF”申请，意图为IBIT持仓叠加一层下行缓释。这不是对$BTC失去兴趣，而是机构想要一种更可控的持有方式——情绪转弱的同时，产品创新反而在提速，这个反差被市场低估了。 $ETH 一侧的分化更极端。SharpLink把4亿美元ETH投入Ether.fi与Lido做流动性质押，BitMine持续加仓，长线资金在链上锁定筹码；可ETF赎回仍未止步，短期价格自然被压。链上建仓与二级撤退并存，这类分歧通常需要时间消化，而不是一两根K线就能解决。 我的判断是：主A group of people are fixated on $ZEC shouting to rush to 10,000, but no one notices it has only retraced for a month. From the previous high of 1697, it pulled back 34% to 1120; the main upward wave is still ahead. Allocate at most 10% in spot, buy in 3 installments, avoid contracts, 10,000 is a narrative, not a target.
$BTC is stuck at the 83,000 level, with a sell wall pressing above; every bounce up feels like an electric shock. Lightly buy on breaks above 81,100, wait for support at 80,000 or 78,000 on dips. ETF is still flowing out, don't treat it as a reversal.
The biggest macro pressure is crude oil; CL remains high, preventing the crypto market from rising. Wait for Trump to suppress oil prices around the midterm elections for a strong market. Control your position size; survival is most important. $ETH
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ BTC has only risen 0.38% over five trading days, and the premium bulls pay every 8 hours has decreased with each of today's three settlements.
At midnight, it was still fully loaded at 1.0bp, but by the afternoon it dropped to just 0.52bp.
Since 10/11, there hasn't been a single day closing above 83,000.
Pressing the same price level for ten days turns that pressure into consensus.
On OKX, BTC's open interest contracts have remained between 3.18 billion and 3.36 billion throughout October.
The ETF talks about incremental inflows that won't come anytime soon, the fee rate talks about no fees paid on existing positions, and the position talks about no one entering the market.
All three perspectives point to the same thing: little pressure from above, and no one stepping in from below.
The most costly thing in this market is itchy hands, the second most costly is guessing the direction.
I don't think this is a bottom building; it's that no one is willing to bet.
For the rebound to continue, someone has to be willing to open new longs, not just close old ones.
Watching the fee rate is more useful than watching the K-line: the line is the result, money is the cause.
The longer it stays sideways, the more both sides seem to be waiting for the other to move first.
Entering now means profiting from volatility but losing to time decay.
I won't chase. Conditions for invalidation:
If it stands back above 83,149, open interest rises 5% in a day, and the fee rate returns to 1bp, I'll admit new money is entering;
If open interest falls below 3.18 billion, it means bulls are starting to withdraw, and it's even less worth stepping in.
The next wave at 84,000—are you waiting for new leverage or for the ETF to stop outflows?
$BTC $ETH
#ETF continuous outflows, can BTC's rebound continue?
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heardNVIDIA GTC Berlin conference is approaching, why did the whale open a large short position?
#芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？
The NVIDIA GTC Berlin conference is about to take place. At this time, a whale opened a large short position with an average entry price of $218.078, currently holding a position valued at about $12.61 million, with an unrealized profit of about $86,600.
The main reasons I think the whale opened the short position now are:
1. Sell the news hedge: The positive expectations for GTC Berlin (Oct 20-22) and Jensen Huang's speech (21st) have been partially realized (investment in four German startups, industrial AI cooperation). After a highly anticipated event, a "sell the news" pullback is likely, so the short bet is on volatility.
2. Technical pullback: The stock price has fallen from the early October high of about $243 to around $217 (about -10%), with recent momentum cooling off, making it suitable to short before the event.
3. Macro pressure: High oil prices, inflation, and concerns about the Fed's path are pressuring tech stocks. Doubts about AI capital expenditure returns are rising, making valuations sensitive at high levels.
4. Tactical position: Short-term trading on platforms like Hyperliquid, average price $218.078, currently slightly profitable near the current price, not a long-term bearish view.
Going forward, $NVDA is likely to mainly range trade before the event.
Support: 214-215, then looking down to 210
Resistance: 220, 225, 230
Hold above 214 or rebound; if it breaks below, look toward 200;
If the speech exceeds expectations, it could surge; otherwise, it may easily pull back.$CORE $CORE The essence of core's decline is due to the large unlocking pressure released earlier. But from the perspective of value and development, it has been improving continuously, for example, now it has a mainnet, many dapps, and financial projects under development.
After listing, combined with the liquidity analysis at that time, the liquidity was one-fifteenth of the current liquidity, so the lowest price at listing was about 0.3u. Liquidity has increased 15 times, and the price has dropped 15 times from the lowest point after listing, just around 0.02. The subsequent unlocking of tokens is spread over many years, which is already a very small incremental selling pressure.
Therefore, it is judged that the bottom area of core is approximately around 0.02, with some margin of error up or down, but not very large.
The current price very much fits the characteristics of a bottom value.
From a technical analysis perspective, as long as the price does not hit a new low, it is an opportunity.
As retail investors, we can only be those who have faith or those who cut losses and run.
So, what do you choose? AVAX at $9.4, would you still dare to hold it?
Institutions are quietly accumulating while retail investors are calling it trash. RWA growth leads all chains, yet the price has fallen back to the starting point—is this the final shakeout or an escape window?
First, look at the surface: continuous good news, but the price doesn't rise.
AVAX is currently at $9.40, down 2.3%-2.7% in 24 hours, down 8% in 7 days, and weakly oscillating over 30 days. Market cap is 4.17 billion, 24-hour volume is 198 million, circulating supply is 444 million tokens. The candlestick chart shows a decline from mid-October's $10.5-$11 range, now testing the $9.39-$9.26 lows. Price is below the 20/50 moving averages, RSI is 35-43, neutral to weak, close to oversold but not extreme—all indicators are signaling one thing: support nearby, waiting for direction.
First thing: institutions are buying, but why no price rally?
Look at these news items, don’t skip:
Janus Henderson (about $500 billion AUM) became a validator and invested in the on-chain credit platform Tranched.
Dubai DIFC court has put court orders/records on Avalanche C-Chain.
Hyundai Card is piloting cross-border payments on Avalanche via Axiym, reducing time by over 96%.
Tokenized US Treasuries about $545 million, roughly 4x growth this year; RWA distributed assets about $1.73 billion; RWA growth in the last 30 days about $266 million, leading multiple chains.
Charles Schwab plans to launch AVAX trading by year-end; Goldman Sachs-related Treasury funds access Avalanche settlement network via Lynq.
In plain language:
AVAX is no longer just the "high-speed public chain" story; it is becoming the settlement layer for institutional RWA and payments.
But the harsh truth is:
Institutions are buying the settlement layer five years from now, you are buying the candlestick five days from now.
Institutions enter slowly, not responsible for pumping the price for you.
So the price is slow to react to good news—not because the narrative is false, but because macro and liquidity conditions don’t cooperate.
Second thing: fundamentals are strong, but retail doesn’t buy in
AVAX’s foundation is solid:
DeFi TVL about $580-$590 million, stablecoin market cap about $1.25 billion, active RWA AUM over $1 billion.
Daily active addresses about 40,000, daily transactions about 250,000.
Advantages include institutional-grade subnets/L1 customization, fast finality, fee burning, rapid RWA/credit/payment adoption. BlackRock BUIDL and Securitize have significant shares.
But weaknesses are obvious:
Retail DeFi activity is weaker than Solana/Base, DEX and perpetual volumes are shrinking, fees and per capita transactions are low.
In short:
Institutional narratives are sophisticated, retail doesn’t understand; retail doesn’t play, so price lacks elasticity.
AVAX doesn’t lack stories, the stories are just too advanced, short-term funds lack patience to listen.
Third thing: macro is the biggest blade, 9.3 is the litmus test
BTC is oscillating between 81,400-82,000, US September inflation rose to 3.7%, above expectations, 10-year yield about 5%, market even pricing in possible rate hike by end of October.
In a high interest rate environment, altcoins’ beta to BTC will be amplified.
No matter how good AVAX’s RWA narrative is, it can’t withstand Fed rate hike expectations.
Technically more direct:
Falling from $10.5-$11, now testing first support at $9.30-$9.40.
Secondary support at $9.00-$9.10, stronger at $8.70-$8.90.
Resistance near term $9.50-$9.60, mid $9.75-$10.00, higher $10.50-$11.00.
Funding rate near neutral, long-short ratio biased long but not extreme, open interest moderate, recent long liquidations more frequent. Weekly chart still at bottom of large range, retraced over 93% from ATH.
9.3 is not an ordinary support, it’s a litmus test:
Holding it is a golden pit; breaking it with volume is a bottomless pit.
Long-short showdown, you decide
On one side:
Janus Henderson, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs-related funds, Hyundai Card, institutions landing real projects
RWA 30-day growth $266 million, leading all chains
Tokenized US Treasuries 4x growth this year
Testing $9.3-$9.4, RSI near oversold
On the other side:
Macro high rates + 3.7% inflation + rate hike expectations, risk assets under pressure
Weak retail DeFi, shrinking DEX/perpetual volumes
Price below moving averages, short-term bearish
Breaking $9.3 may accelerate drop to $9.0 or even $8.7
Key levels
Resistance above: $9.50-$9.60 → $9.75-$10.00 → $10.50-$11.00
Support below: $9.30-$9.40 → $9.00-$9.10 → $8.70-$8.90
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Light position to observe if $9.30 holds.
If it rebounds and stabilizes at $9.50-$9.60 and BTC stabilizes, consider short longs targeting $9.75-$10.00;
If it breaks $9.30 with volume and accelerates down, consider short positions near $9.00.
Swing traders:
Wait for below $9.00 or volume breakout above $10 to increase position.
Fundamentals support mid-to-long term logic, but don’t chase highs before macro turns.
Long-term believers:
If you believe in RWA/institutional narrative, accumulate below $9 in batches, don’t all in at once.
Target future cycles, but macro turn and BTC strength are prerequisites. Prioritize position management, avoid heavy single-coin exposure.
AVAX now is like LINK in 2023—
Everyone curses “old coin not rising,” but institutions quietly accumulate RWA and payments.
What happened later? LINK rose from 5 to 20.
AVAX is not losing price, it’s losing retail patience; institutions are buying not candlesticks, but the future settlement layer.
$BTC $ETH $AVAX Evening Viewpoint: October 20.
The gradual decline of Bitcoin has started again, is it never-ending? The two rebound attempts indicated by the red arrows above to reclaim the resistance above 82120 have both failed, and an isolated high point has appeared in the white box area. The isolated high point indicates resistance above, which is at 82120. In future trading, when you see an isolated high point and you hold long positions, you need to be cautious—either reduce your position or close it. The isolated high point is a warning that a pullback may occur; if you don't reduce or close your position, you risk losses. Remember the candlestick pattern outlined in the white box. After the isolated high point appeared, the triangle pattern was broken downward again. From the current market situation, Bitcoin is preparing to retest the support zone between 81026 and 80789. If this support zone holds, there is no major issue, and the price will consolidate and oscillate between 82120 and 80789. However, if this support zone is broken, pay attention to the previous low at 79732. If the previous low is broken and not recovered, a larger decline will follow. The volume corresponding to the candlestick indicated by the white arrow below shows selling volume, but the price has not dropped accordingly. This is a volume contraction during the decline, which suggests the drop is not very deep—this is my personal subjective view. It may fake break the 80789 support and then recover because there is a large amount of long liquidity to be cleared near 80789. This is under the assumption of no negative news; if negative news emerges, the price may not recover. Can't write more, see the comments section.The trading logic anchors on $OKB's own value capture fatigue: the platform token has long relied on "quarterly buyback and burn" as a core bullish option, but recent changes in market trading structure have seen spot trading volume disperse into emerging sectors (such as Meme, AI), and the growth rate of mainstream perpetual contract fees has slowed. The buyback benefit is gradually "buying the expectation, selling the fact," with long positions above 119.81 exhausted. Shorting down to 113.52 essentially means shorting the "valuation reversion after the buyback dividend fades." Currently at 113.52, 110 is a psychological level; if buyback data falls short of expectations or the current "good news is fully priced in" spike occurs, a break below 108 is expected; 20x leverage floating profits double, requiring moving stop profits to lock in gains. $ETH $BTC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Netflix is reporting earnings tonight, and it looks like it will slightly beat expectations.
Q2 revenue was $12.56 billion, up 13.4% year-over-year; operating profit was $4.193 billion, up about 11%; net profit was $3.401 billion, up about 9%; split-adjusted EPS was $0.80, compared to $0.72 in the same period last year.
The profitability is strong, but the operating margin dropped from 34.1% to 33.4%, profit growth lagged behind revenue growth, operating cash flow was $1.744 billion, and free cash flow was $1.525 billion, down about 28% and 33% year-over-year respectively.
The company explained that part of this was due to increased cash taxes.
Meanwhile, it repurchased $4.7 billion in shares this quarter, about three times the free cash flow for the quarter, and the EPS growth also benefited from the reduced share count.
The company’s guidance this time is revenue of $12.86 billion, EPS of $0.82, and an operating margin of 33.2%.
Personally, I’m betting on revenue of $12.95 billion, EPS of $0.85, and an operating margin around 33.5%.
Price increases are contributing more fully, ad revenue continues to grow, and content amortization growth is expected to slow in the second half, all of which are favorable for profit realization.
But the market has long known these positives, and the full-year ad revenue target of about $3 billion only accounts for about 6% of the full-year revenue guidance.
What really determines the stock price is whether the full-year revenue target of $51 billion to $51.4 billion and the 31.5% operating margin target can be raised.
I am cautiously bullish.
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 BTC is sharpening its blade on the fault line, ETH is counting seconds on the line between life and death.
$BTC is stuck at 82,000; 82,500–83,000 is not an ordinary resistance, but a liquidation fault line created by short stop-losses and leveraged positions. Funding rates have dropped to the lowest since June, and open interest has shrunk to a 5-month low—the selling pressure is not being held up, but the leverage is withdrawing first. However, ETFs saw a total inflow of 527 million yesterday, IBIT alone took 665 million, while FBTC and GBTC are still bleeding. On-chain, addresses holding 1,000–10,000 coins have shifted from a net accumulation of -62,600 coins over 60 days to +5,230 coins; the whales are accumulating, but spot demand has not kept up.
$ETH is near 2,380, with 2,360 as the line between life and death; tests in the past three days have been pulled back twice. ETFs have seen outflows for the fourth consecutive day totaling 103 million, with ETHA withdrawing 95.4 million in a single day. But while whales are increasing shorts, BitMine’s holdings have surged to 6.04 million coins, and JPM Coin is directly deployed on the Ethereum mainnet. On one hand, derivatives are used to suppress prices; on the other, real money is used to accumulate chips.
The strategy is twofold. BTC: touching 82,500–83,000 will itself change micro liquidity; a close confirmation is not necessarily required, but no trades between 82,000–82,500 as position rotation odds are worst there; breaking below 81,000 means looking for the next level at 79,000. ETH: maintain the squeeze logic above 2,360, lightly test and stop loss below 2,350; only consider 2,480 if volume breaks above 2,440; if 2,360 breaks, next stops are 2,320 or even 2,200, no catching falls.The market with continuous ETF outflows is mostly a rebound driven by short covering and contract short squeezes, which is a pulse-like repair and rarely develops into a sustained strong rally. To continue the rebound, other funds must take over; relying solely on retail and large investors bottom-fishing and holding the pressure will be exhausting.
Many people easily fall into a misconception: ETF outflow = immediate sharp drop. Actually, they are not the same. ETF redemptions are Wall Street institutions reducing risk and adjusting positions, indicating a lack of incremental institutional buying; however, on-chain whales, off-exchange spot, and contract short covering can still push the price up, so it is common to see a divergence where "ETF is running out, but the coin price is rising." This divergence is the biggest hidden risk in this round: institutions exit during the rebound, and the higher the rebound, the heavier the selling pressure above.
Two scenarios to consider separately
✅ Optimistic scenario, the rebound can continue:
ETF outflows gradually narrow and stop accelerating; US Treasury yields and the US dollar weaken, providing liquidity support; on-chain whale addresses keep accumulating coins, spot exchange inventories continue to decline; contracts are not purely short squeezes, and new long funds slowly take over. In this case, the rebound can continue and move upward within a range.
❌ Pessimistic scenario, the rebound is likely to fail:
ETF outflows continue to expand with large daily redemptions; the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen; this rally is purely driven by short liquidations, and after the liquidation, there is no spot buying to follow. This kind of rebound is a "bull trap repair," shorts have fully covered, institutions continue to sell off, and the price is very likely to fall back to test support levels again. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ $XAU Hawkish pressure and safe-haven support create a dilemma
Currently, gold is clearly caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The Federal Reserve's meeting saw three dissenting votes advocating for rate hikes, combined with a rebound in the dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which have short-term suppressive effects on gold prices. This is the main reason gold fell back from above 4190.
However, the downside is also capped. Tensions in the Middle East and unresolved geopolitical risks keep safe-haven demand alive. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings by 23 tons in September, marking 23 consecutive months of gold purchases. Gold ETF holdings have also reached historic highs. Domestic physical and allocation demand remain active.
In simple terms, in the short term, the dollar and rate hike expectations are weighing on gold, but geopolitical safe-haven demand and central bank gold buying are providing a floor. The fundamentals have not deteriorated, and the market is more likely to experience range-bound fluctuations #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ $BTC
My current position hasn't changed much; I continue to hold Bitcoin spot without any movement,
and my long contracts on Bitcoin are also still open.
I see this more as a bullish continuation, a period of doubt between the bear market and bull market. I believe the adjustment space won't be very large. A deep pullback might reach around 77000 or 78000, which would be a highly cost-effective entry point. Whether it gets there, I'm not sure, but I won't bet on it.
Bitcoin's yearly candle has never closed negative for two consecutive years. Now that the adjustment is in place, it will continue to charge toward 100000 by year-end. Until the bull market direction changes, I won't make significant adjustments to my position, only managing leverage size. Core Bull-Bear Logic
Dimension 📈 Bullish Signals 📉 Bearish Risks
Capital Flow ETF single-day net inflow of 665 million, capital flow shows a sharp reversal; last week ETF total still net outflow of $593 million; price failed to strengthen following ETF inflows
Technical 50-day SMA (81,166 dipped then recovered) MACD zeroed, momentum exhausted; 82,789 false breakout turned resistance; price below 7-day/20-day SMA
Derivatives OI decline due to deleveraging rather than new short positions; funding rate neutral; 1-hour taker buy/sell ratio only 0.5321, sell orders nearly double buy orders
Macro October rate hike probability only 15%-17%, short-term interest rate shock risk low; economists warn "fifty-fifty"; December rate hike probability near 80%; Brent crude still around $110
Sentiment Doctor Profit at 94,000 Greed Index 48, sentiment neutral to slightly cold; bulls washed out after yesterday's false breakout $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #October FOMC Approaches, What Are the Variables for the Fed Pausing Rate Hikes?
The leader has something to say:
With the October FOMC approaching, the market's bet on a pause in rate hikes has exceeded 80%, and expectations are fully priced in.
The real variable is not in October but in December. A comment in the discussion section is very accurate: the October pause is already priced in; the real risk is the rising expectations of a rate hike in December. If CPI, PPI, or oil prices continue to rise, hawkish voices will resurface.
Oil prices are still high at over $100, and inflationary pressure remains. The Fed will most likely hold steady in October, but if the statement leans hawkish or hints at a year-end rate hike, risk assets will come under pressure. So before the FOMC announcement, the direction is unclear; do not bet on a one-sided move.
BTC dipped slightly by 0.40% today, with the market in a wait-and-see mode. The three trades I live-streamed yesterday have all been closed with profits, and I am now out of positions. The key is whether the 80,000 level can hold; if it holds, expect consolidation; if it breaks, expect a deeper pullback. Resistance is at 84,000-85,000. Do not chase highs or sell lows; wait for the meeting outcome to find opportunities.
Remember to set stop losses on your trades. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive. Good luck.At 8:30 PM, before the US stock market opens, I was frantically watching the data.
The weirdest divergence appeared today: last night, the US stock market Bitcoin spot ETF just recorded a net inflow of 526.7 million dollars, but today the coin price surged to 82,067 and then completely gave it all back, now stuck at 81,412.
Why can't BlackRock's large purchase move the price? Look at the three most core hot data points today:
1️⃣ Hashrate debt is still collapsing: The hashrate leasing leader CoreWeave ($CRWV) before the US market tonight directly broke the $60 lifeline, plunging 5.03% to $58.30 (lowest hit $57.98, a new 52-week low). The hashrate default risk is growing bigger and bigger, and cross-asset funds are still taking the opportunity to sell for dollars while the ETF supports the market.
2️⃣ Institutions completely abandon the losing side to save the winning one: Last night while $BTC saw inflows, the $ETH spot ETF reversed with a net outflow of 103.3 million dollars. Today $ETH directly broke below the 2,400 level, hitting a low of 2,376.9, now quoted at 2,381.
3️⃣ On-chain big players openly shorting: Today social media uncovered a Hyperliquid address marked as Wintermute holding a position of 81.36 million dollars, 85.5% of which are short positions (just the 15x short on $ETH alone is 22.61 million dollars, also shorting $SOL and the S&PAre you like this too: bullish on Bitcoin, but can't stand it halving in value every time it drops; afraid of missing out when out of the market, but can't sleep when fully invested. BlackRock is targeting exactly these people this time.
On October 19, it submitted the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF to the SEC, ticker PBIT. In short: it wants to capture the upside while providing a buffer layer during downturns, offering those who can't hold BTC a middle option that doesn't require going all-in or completely missing out.
But it doesn't hold Bitcoin directly; instead, it uses a combination of IBIT call options plus short-term U.S. Treasuries: buying call options at about 90% of the strike price, selling call options at a higher strike price, and using the premium from selling options to subsidize the cost of buying options. Essentially, it's a collar strategy wrapped in an ETF shell—limiting some losses below and capping some gains above. The fund also runs three staggered layers, so when you buy affects which protection segment you benefit from.
Note, the "initial maximum buffer of about 10%" is anchored to the IBIT reference value at the time of layered construction and is before fees, not a principal floor. Fees will eat into part of the buffer; BTC volatility often exceeds 10%, so losses still occur if it falls below the range. The trade-off is straightforward: upside is capped, so strong rallies will underperform IBIT.
PBIT is not yet approved. It may not make you more profit, but it might help you hold longer—for those afraid of volatility but unwilling to exit, this is the appeal.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ $BTC $ETH The same institution's valuation for SOL in 2030 ranges astonishingly from $9.81 to $3211.28. There is also a baseline scenario at $334.70. If you only highlight the highest figure, the entire report's meaning gets distorted.
This is an older study released by VanEck on October 27, 2023. Reviewing their calculation method this time, it is not about raising the target price today. In the three scenarios, Solana's assumed market share in the smart contract platform market is 5%, 30%, and 80%, respectively.
The algorithm can be broken down into three steps: estimate how much cash flow can be generated by then, multiply by the valuation multiple the market is willing to give, and then divide by the expected token supply. The baseline scenario estimates about $6.96 billion in cash flow to token holders by 2030, applies a 33x valuation multiple, and finally calculates $334.70 per token. The pessimistic and optimistic scenarios change revenue, multiples, and supply, so the results can differ by more than 300 times.
For those looking at the target price, the key is to check how far these assumptions have progressed: whether paid demand can be sustained, whether revenue can flow to tokens, and how much market share competitors will take. The cash flow in the model is not a dividend that token holders can directly receive just by holding tokens. The $3211 price corresponds to a set of optimistic conditions and is not the sole conclusion of the report.
Source and original table: VanEck "Solana Valuation by 2030," 2023/10/27; reviewed on 10/20. $SOL 10月FOMC马上到了，市场都在喊暂停加息，这中间到底还藏着什么变数？法老直接说，变数不在市场定价里，在沃什那张嘴上。 先看现在的定价。 CME数据显示，10月维持利率不变的概率在82%到85%左右，加息概率只剩15%到17%。沃什在曼谷IMF年会上刻意不表态，说“不预判会议结果”，市场直接把加息概率从27%砸到15%以下。高盛顺势把下一次加息预测推到了12月。 但变数就在这儿，市场可能把沃什想简单了。 第一，通胀数据其实不支持暂停。 9月CPI同比3.7%，核心CPI环比0.3%，PPI同比干到6.3%，能源之外的商品价格也在加速。牛津经济研究院的经济学家直接预测10月和12月连续加息，前美银首席经济学家说这是“五五开”。市场定价和经济学家的判断，裂开了一道缝。 第二，沃什的“沉默”不等于“鸽派”。 他上任后就废了前瞻指引，刻意不给市场抓手。市场把“不说话”解读成“不加息”，但沃什完全可以在28号那天用行动说话。他8月在杰克逊霍尔就放过鹰，9月全票通过加息，骨子里是个鹰派。 第三，政治因素被高估了。 有人说美联储不敢在中期选举前六天加息Whether 82,000 holds or not is not about the price
The Nasdaq rose 1.11%, $BTC surged to 83168 then fell back near 82,000.
What is this price level: 82,000 is not a technical level, it is a dense order zone.
Above it, 82,500 and 83,000 have sell orders pressing down; every surge is pushed back.
What others think: If it rises, you should chase.
Taking a step back: This move is a correction, not a one-sided rally.
If it were truly strong, 83168 wouldn’t have been given back so quickly.
$BTC needs to hold above 82,500 for short positions to be reconsidered.
If it breaks below 81,700, it means this rally wasn’t sustained.
When orders are withdrawn, the position changes.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
#$BTC The scale of crypto yield vaults continues to expand, but what you should really be wary of is not low yields, but unclear sources of yield.
The same 10% annualized return means completely different risks if it comes from genuine lending demand versus leverage, incentives, or complex collateral.
When I evaluate a vault, I only ask four questions: What are the underlying assets? Who manages the strategy? How do you exit in extreme market conditions? How large has the historical drawdown been?
Yield is just advertising; the ability to survive crises is the real product.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Bitmine is still buying ETH, but this ongoing buying has nearly reached its set target. The next phase of demand for ETH cannot rely solely on the holdings record of the same company.
The company's announcement on October 19 shows holdings of about 6.04 million ETH, close to the target of 5% of the total supply. As the target approaches, the remaining room to continue increasing holdings under this plan is also narrowing.
This means the market needs to see more buyers stepping in. Subsequent additional purchases are the key. The purchase arrangements after the target is met have yet to be disclosed, so weekly increases in holdings should not be regarded as a permanent buying force. It dropped back from 82,700 to 81,500 again; this market is really something else.
It was still hovering around 81,700 this afternoon, and I thought it would stay flat overnight, but then it surged to 82,760, and now it’s dropped back to 81,585. Up and down three or four times a day, each time rising about $1,000 and then dropping about $1,000. If you go long, it pumps up then gets smashed. If you go short, it drops then gets pulled back. On the 4-hour chart, MA5 is at 81,820, MA10 at 82,075, and MA20 at 81,813; the three lines are tangled again. This means it’s going to keep consolidating.
I think I’ve figured it out now: this recent market is just designed to wear people down. If you chase, it’s no good; if you don’t, it’s no good either. Both longs and shorts get swept back and forth.
But we have to look at a few data sets tonight. In the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidations totaled $188 million, with $104 million in long liquidations and $84.12 million in short liquidations. Actually, the longs took a heavier hit. Bitcoin long liquidations were $30.87 million, shorts $18.59 million. When it surges up, shorts get liquidated; when it drops, longs get buried—both sides hurt.
The fundamentals aren’t reassuring either. The Fed is very likely to hold rates steady in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December has already soared to 75%. Oil prices remain high and volatile, inflation data exceeded expectations, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Coinbase premium index dropped to -0.141, a new low since late June, indicating insufficient buying support in the US market.
I’m done watching tonight; let it rise or fall as it wants. Anyway, in the 80,000–83,000 range, I’ll just wait for it to break out before making a move. How many times have you been swept back and forth today? $BTC#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
SpaceX (SPCX) announced its Q3 results after market close today. The market consensus expects revenue around $12.9–13.4 billion and EPS about $0.13–0.15. I am optimistic that SPCX's Q3 earnings will exceed expectations for the following reasons:
The AI segment is the biggest growth driver. Q2 revenue already reached $2.56 billion (up 247% year-over-year), with $6.7 billion in new cloud service contracts signed in Q3. Computing capacity is ramping from 1.4GW toward over 2GW by year-end, potentially contributing incremental revenue exceeding $6 billion.
Starlink continues to scale. At the end of Q2, there were 12 million users (net increase of 1.7 million that quarter). Q3 is expected to add another 1.7–2.3 million users. Connectivity revenue is projected to rise from $4.3 billion to nearly $5 billion, maintaining a high profit margin.
Q2 already significantly beat expectations (revenue $7.81 billion, EPS better than forecast), with adjusted EBITDA reaching $3.5 billion, showing operating leverage. $47.5 billion in orders on hand and about $100 billion in cash provide strong support. Some institutions foresee even higher figures (revenue $13.2 billion, EPS $0.21), with the average sell-side target price exceeding $220.
High capital expenditure remains a concern, but if revenue realization outpaces expectations, it will strengthen the "space + communications + AI" narrative.BTC's rebound yesterday looked more like a risk appetite recovery, with institutional buying still lacking evidence.
Yesterday during the European morning session, BTC briefly returned to around $83,000, and Nasdaq futures also strengthened in sync. The simultaneous recovery of stocks and crypto markets supports the judgment that capital is re-accepting risk. If this were directly attributed to institutional inflows, it would not align with the currently released data: the US spot BTC ETFs still saw a net outflow of about $228 million from October 12 to 16.
Therefore, the key to this rebound lies in whether fund demand can catch up after the price rises first. The redemptions over the past week mean this buying channel has left a capital gap in the market. If this gap can be filled in the new week, the rebound will gain an additional layer of support; relying solely on stock market sentiment to drive it, the sustainability still depends on external markets.Sold out, not a single one left.
SkyAI, once the fifth largest Solana holder among US stocks, confirmed in a filing with the SEC on Monday that it has liquidated all $SOL holdings, leaving about $223.8 million in cash as of October 16.
At the beginning of October, the company transferred SOL from its on-chain wallet to exchanges, announced on October 11 the sale of about 1 million tokens and planned a tender offer to repurchase shares at $3 each; the liquidation was completed and the repurchase started on October 16.
The repurchase cap is $201.3 million, covering up to 95% of shares and warrants, all paid with available cash, expiring on October 29, and no longer linked to the price of SOL.
Behind these numbers lies the harsh reality of the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT): SkyAI raised over $400 million last August to accumulate coins, held about 2.08 million tokens at the end of the year at a cost of about $194 each, with an unrealized loss of about $153 million; this batch was ultimately sold at an average price of about $107.51, confirming the loss.
I think this is the most textbook example of a "coin-based treasury" curtain call this year: when buying coins, the stock price soared with the coin price; when the coin price halved, the stock price was also crushed, and in the end, they could only sell coins to save the stock price.
The company says it will continue to build stablecoin infrastructure and AI on Solana. On Monday, the stock price rose 5.3% to $2.79. Who do you think will be the next to liquidate?
$SOL
#TreasuryCompany #LiquidationMacro Background: Market Pricing "On Hold," Yet Economists Say "Fifty-Fifty"
There is significant divergence in the pricing for the October FOMC (October 27-28):
Market Pricing: Interest rate futures show only a 15%-17% probability of a rate hike in October, with over 80% probability of no change.
Economists' Judgment: Former BofA Chief Economist Ethan Harris bluntly calls it "fifty-fifty"; Oxford Economics' Matthew Martin more clearly predicts the Fed will hike rates in both October and December. The core basis is the September inflation data: CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, PPI year-on-year as high as 6.3%, and accelerating prices for non-energy goods — these goods have low volatility, so their strength implies more persistent inflationary pressure.
This means: If there is an unexpected rate hike in October, the impact on U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and risk assets will be significant; but even if the Fed holds steady in October, the pricing for a December hike is already close to 80%, so medium-term tightening pressure remains. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 数字货币市场晚盘前瞻｜2026-10-20（北京） 数据截止：北京时间 10 月 20 日 18 时
一句话市场状态：BTC 贴着 50 日均线窄幅整理、多空都缺决心，事件周（FOMC＋PCE＋期权到期）前市场进入"等数据"模式，今晚 21:30 美股开盘是第一个风险窗口。 一、核心结论 （全篇最重要的判断）未来 10 天是年内最密集的宏观＋衍生品事件窗口（10-27/28 FOMC、10-29 PCE＋日银议息、10-30 约 110 亿美元期权到期），当前 $80,000-$83,200 是事件前的整理带；在 10-29 之前，方向性仓位（尤其高杠杆）的风险收益比不佳，短线以区间思路和防守为主，核心观察位是 $80,000——有效跌破则下看 $78,000（期权最大痛点），守住则维持震荡。 机构资金出现明显分化：BTC 现货 ETF 周一净流入 $526.6M（9 月 22 日以来最大单日，IBIT 独占 $665.2M），但价格冲高 $83,155 后回落收 $81,938，"有流入、无跟涨"说明现货卖压正在吸收 ETF 买盘；ETH 现货 ETF 反向四连流出（周一 -$103On-chain is telling a very typical "early bottom phase" story:
Whales are accumulating, the US hasn't followed yet.
✅ 1000–10000 BTC holders: 60-day net accumulation flipped from -62,600 to +5,230, distribution turning into absorption
✅ Binance USDT reserves: 790 million → 1.76 billion, on-exchange ammo ready
❌ Coinbase premium -0.14%, weekly net inflow +8,428 $BTC into the exchange, short-term SOPR 0.998 slight loss cut
Big money is positioning, US funds are watching.
True reversal looks at three signals: Coinbase premium turns positive / exchange net flow turns negative / STH-SOPR holds above 1.
Right now it's neither a bull run nor a crash, but a "structure bottoming, demand waiting for signals" phase. Whales buy with a 12-month logic, fighting them with 15-minute candles is a losing game.
The bottom is not a single bullish candle, but a period of "whales absorbing, retail doubting, US slow". $BTC $SOL The most outrageous thing about $ETH today: a publicly listed company that treated SOL as a treasury asset completely sold off all its SOL holdings, then turned around to announce a share buyback offer at $3 per share, up to 95%. The meaning is very straightforward — "I'm done playing with the coin, taking the money back to buy my own stock."
This story is laughable when told. A month ago, the market labeled it as a "SOL treasury stock," saying it achieved asset appreciation by hoarding coins, but now it can't hold on anymore. What's even more dramatic is that a shareholder holding nearly 10% of the shares slammed the table, complaining that $3 is too low and demanding $3.5, and also questioned the management for acting secretly. Selling off isn't the problem, buybacks aren't the problem, being openly challenged is the real problem — isn't this just admitting the show is over?
The takeaway for the crypto world is very direct: next time someone brags that "a certain company treats XXX as a treasury strategy," just treat it as a business that could be overturned at any moment. The coin hoarding accounts shown to shareholders can change on a whim. ETH is at 2,386 here, basically drifting with sentiment today; don't really treat it as some kind of safe haven. $SOL Maji's position this time is really under increasing pressure.
Huang Licheng is currently holding 1,600 $ETH long positions, with an average cost of about $2407.59, a position value of approximately $3.852 million, using 28.64x full-position leverage, and the liquidation price has already reached $2370.86, with almost no backup margin left.
What is more concerning is the overall account unrealized loss, which is close to $37 million, and losses over the past 30 days have also exceeded $5.3 million.
But what really needs to be wary of is not the book loss figure, but the position structure.
High leverage + full-position mode + no additional margin means there is very limited room for the market to move against the position. As long as $ETH drops further, the position risk will significantly increase.
From the previous large profits to now continuously enduring drawdowns, this again shows that the hardest part of trading is never catching a single market move, but controlling risk after making profits.
The market offers opportunities every day; there is no need to keep increasing positions just to recover losses.
Positions can wait slowly for opportunities to reposition, but once the principal is wiped out due to risk control failure, there will be no qualification left to even wait for opportunities.
#BTC #ETH #HYPE #ETF资金流出$BTC fees are about to turn negative
Bears are as numerous as cattle, with dense sell orders stacked like a high wall between 81,600 and 82,200 above.
This extreme “bear concentration zone” is often the favorite prey of the main players. When everyone thinks the resistance above is insurmountable and rushes to short at 50x leverage or even higher, the risk of a "short squeeze" is brewing exponentially. Once the price breaks through the 81,600 defense line upward, the short squeeze triggered by a bear stampede will instantly become rocket fuel pushing prices higher, directly blowing out high-leverage short positions at low altitude.#Strive large-scale accumulation, Strategy repurchase scale exceeds coin purchases
Strive bought 4,045 BTC in the latest week, spending about $335 million, raising its holdings to 36,818 BTC, continuing to expand its balance sheet through warrants and SATS preferred shares.
Strategy only added 267 BTC this week but spent $193.1 million to repurchase STRC, raising the repurchase authorization from 2 billion to 3 billion. It bought coins worth $22 million, and the repurchase amount is nearly 9 times the coin purchase amount. The signal is very clear: currently, restructuring capital is more cost-effective than chasing high coin purchases.
My judgment is that this is not bearish on BTC, but the treasury model has entered the "accounting phase":
• Strive is still in accumulation mode, using high-cost funds to exchange positions, betting on BTC's long-term upward trend;
• Strategy has grown so large that the marginal impact of buying coins is reduced; preferred stock discounts, dividend pressure, and BTC content per share are the key issues;
• When mNAV premium compresses, issuing shares to buy coins dilutes existing shareholders, while repurchases can support the value per share.
• Don't treat repurchases as new buying pressure; they protect the financing machine from stopping.
The market used to only look at "how many coins were bought," but now it must consider four numbers: financing cost, dilution rate, cash flow coverage, and BTC/ETH per share. This round eliminates not the weak in faith, but those who can't withstand high interest and pullbacks.
In the long term, I am still bullish on BTC, but in the short term, don't automatically translate "company buying coins" as positive; first see where the money comes from and whether it can be sustained.