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#Fed July FOMC Minutes 9-3, Officials Still Divided on Rate Hikes The Fed's July FOMC minutes show a 9-3 vote, with internal disagreements on rate hikes still present
$BEAT has basically ended its rally; don't hold onto hopes for a rebound recovery.
The story of "the wolf is coming" won't play out a third time. I repeatedly advised shorting on rallies at the beginning of the month when the price was still around 4U, and I judged that the 0.15 support would be hard to hold. Those who listened have already made good profits.
I still maintain the view: not recommended to go long. There will be a large volume of token unlocks and selling pressure ahead, so please remain cautious.
$AEON has retraced about 10% from its high, but the overall trend has not deteriorated.
The holding volume remains high, indirectly indicating that the main players have not exited. My approach: the pullback is a buying window, and I keep a base position; I will not fully exit before it breaks above 0.12, as there is still room to rise.
LAB and BEAT are in a similar situation and are unlikely to strengthen again. The operational logic of these two tokens is very similar, suspected to be the same funding scheme. The previous rise was due to only 9% circulation, with the main players using low circulation to pump and dump; now circulation has reached 77%, making it very difficult for users trapped at high levels to break even.$BTC This round of rally was initially driven by short squeeze. Approximately $3 billion in short positions were forcibly liquidated, creating a typical short squeeze scenario, pushing the price up sharply in a short period.
Positive signals have appeared in the funding side. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently recorded continuous net inflows, with cumulative net inflows in August approaching or exceeding $1.5 billion. On August 19 alone, the single-day inflow exceeded $500 million, marking one of the largest single-day inflows in recent months.
BlackRock's IBIT continues to lead, with products from Fidelity, ARK, and others also attracting capital simultaneously. Institutional funds are flowing back through ETF channels, indicating that this is not purely leverage-driven but includes some medium- to long-term allocation capital entering the market.
The short-term holder cost baseline has been reclaimed, spot demand indicators have turned positive from negative, contract positions have begun to rebuild after liquidation, but funding rates have not yet shown extreme crowding, indicating the market has not fully entered a "high leverage frenzy" state.
Whether ETF inflows can maintain continuity and scale is a key question. If there is a significant slowdown or net outflow later, prices are likely to enter high-level consolidation or even retracement.
Whether spot buying truly keeps up is also critical. After the short squeeze rally, if trading volume shrinks and on-chain activity declines, upward momentum will weaken.
Technical overbought conditions and profit-taking pressure exist. Some indicators have entered overbought territory, so short-term pullback and correction are normal. The key is whether support around $70,000–$68,500 can hold. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
$SNDK strengthened again today, reaching as high as $1631 intraday, currently around $1600, up over 2% from the previous close; but don't forget it plunged 9% in a single day on August 18, this stock is truly a roller coaster. AI data center demand, NAND price increases, and the company's high growth targets remain the core logic. Sandisk expects revenue to grow mid-to-high single digits to double digits annually from 2028 to 2030, with a gross margin target of about 80%; however, valuation and volatility are already quite exaggerated. I tend to believe "strong long-term logic, but don't chase the frenzy in the short term."$SPCX holds the 130 level
Bottom-fishing success ✅
Short-term target first looks near 140
SpaceX is currently in a typical "high growth + high valuation + high controversy" phase. Fundamentally, Starlink's continuous profitability and rapid revenue growth are solid positives; however, delays in Starship progress, massive AI spending, and gradual unlocking of shares create short-term pressure.
Focus on the exact timetable for Starship's 14th test flight—if approved and successfully captured in the short term, it could be a catalyst for a stock price rebound; if further delayed, pressure may continue. Additionally, selling pressure from subsequent batches of unlocked shares remains a concern.
Achieving Starship milestones is key to valuation expansion. If Starship achieves rapid reusability, SpaceX's 10-year lead in launch costs will gradually translate into financial returns.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX 这波行情，我反而不建议大家现在疯狂追多。 因为真正危险的，往往不是暴跌的时候。 而是所有人突然觉得“跌不了了”的时候。 这两天BTC从6.3万附近一路干到7.2万上方，24小时内超过30亿美元空头被强平，部分统计显示这轮空头清算已经创下近年罕见规模。(Decrypt) 而且这次上涨并不是单纯靠情绪。 美国财政部扩大长期美债回购规模，长端收益率压力缓解；特朗普在白宫加密峰会上继续释放支持加密行业的政策信号。 几个因素叠在一起，再加上空头集体止损： 空头越爆，BTC越涨。 BTC越涨，空头越不敢留。 越不敢留，就越要买回来。 这就是典型的逼空。 所以现在最关键的问题已经不是： “BTC还能不能涨？” 而是： 7.2万上方的买盘，到底是真正的新增资金，还是一场轰轰烈烈的空头回补？ 我的判断很简单。 短线我会重点盯住三个位置。 第一，7万美元。 如果BTC回踩7万附近，能够快速收回并站稳，说明前面的突破没有被完全吞掉。 这种情况下，7万可能从压力位变成支撑位。 第二，7.3万—7.5万美元。 这里才是真正需要观察的地方。 因为逼空行情最容易出现一种假象： 价格涨得特别快。 但真正的现货接盘没有$PEOPLE understands clearly that crypto players currently have no interest in high-tech, high-market-cap, high-VC projects because they have experienced FLOKI, PEPE, IRDI—these low-market-cap coins skyrocketing dozens of times. Therefore, they are not interested in those high-market-cap VC coins. Concepts like real-world asset tokenization (RWA) and top-tier high-performance L1 universal new public chains, although impressive and powerful, are irrelevant to these players and hold no appeal. Instead, these crypto players prefer grassroots culture and coins that can make a comeback.The recently released initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 206,000, below the market expectation of about 210,000, with the previous value revised up from 209,000 to 212,000.
Looking solely at the initial claims figure of 206,000, the market's first reaction is often that expectations for a Fed rate cut cool down again, which creates short-term logical pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies and gold. After all, layoffs are decreasing, and the job market still appears to maintain strong resilience.
However, if we consider the continuing claims rising to 1,799,000 alongside this, the real picture behind it is not a booming job market but rather a typical frozen state.
Currently, companies generally adopt a strategy of neither hiring nor firing; existing positions in the market have not experienced large-scale breakdowns, but once someone becomes unemployed, the difficulty and duration of finding a new job are indefinitely extended. This micro-level liquidity freeze reflects the true temperature of the labor market far better than just the number of layoffs.
For the Federal Reserve, this data sends a rather ambiguous signal. On one hand, initial claims remaining low means there is no urgent short-term pressure to prevent a recession through rate cuts, and the high interest rate environment still has reason to continue; on the other hand, the persistent decline in continuing claims quietly erodes labor resilience, indicating the overall economy is still evolving toward softening.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC: A Short Squeeze Is Not the Same as a Bullish Reversal A short squeeze happened overnight, and suddenly the comment section is full of people calling it a bullish reversal. Let's slow down. $BTC jumped more than 6% in 24 hours, with the move heavily amplified by short liquidations. Recent market data shows billions of dollars in crypto shorts were wiped out during the rally. But a squeeze and a sustainable trend reversal are two different things. After more than a decade in the market, I've#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Trump calls on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, will $BTC still rise?
The bill's passage is indeed positive, but don't equate "calling out" directly with "BTC taking off." After the news, BTC briefly broke through $72,000, rising over 11%, already pricing in expectations early; if the bill is truly enacted, clarifying the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, it is expected to reduce compliance uncertainties for institutional entry, which is a long-term positive for BTC and the entire industry.
The problem is the bill is still stuck in the Senate, with the market betting the probability of passage in 2026 at only about 22%-24%, so if it really passes, there could be another rise, but in the short term it looks more like "profit-taking on good news plus increased volatility."$BTC: The Market Rewards Patience Before the Breakout $BTC doesn't need to break out today to remain interesting. In fact, the most important phase may be happening while the market feels quiet. What matters now is how Bitcoin behaves inside the current range. If sellers continue to get absorbed and demand remains steady, this sideways movement could gradually turn into a base for the next move rather than a signal of weakness. The biggest mistake is waiting until everyone becomes bullish beforeI’m Cige. After $SNDK surged toward 1,800, the stock entered a period of high-level volatility. On August 18, it fell more than 9% at the open, then rebounded intraday on August 19 before giving back another roughly 3.5%. The message from the market is becoming clearer: the storage sector is facing growing valuation divergence. The long-term growth targets unveiled at Investor Day remain the key catalyst behind the sector’s rebound. Goldman Sachs has set a $2,200 target, JPMorgan raised its targ特朗普这次放的信号，白宫加密峰会之后，很多人开始喊： 美国是不是准备大规模买比特币了？ 我的答案是： 有这个方向，但现在还不能直接理解成“美国政府马上砸几百亿买BTC”。 这两件事，差得非常远。 特朗普政府早在2025年就已经正式建立了“战略比特币储备”，但当时核心方式并不是直接拿财政资金疯狂扫货，而是把政府已经持有、没收的比特币纳入储备。白宫文件同时要求寻找“预算中性”的方式增加持有量。 所以我真正关注的，不是特朗普今天有没有喊一句“买BTC”。 而是： 美国正在一步一步把比特币，从“高风险资产”往“国家级战略资产”这个位置上搬。 这才是最值得警惕的地方。 如果未来美国真的通过法律，允许财政体系、黄金资产、联邦机构收益或者其他预算中性方式持续增加BTC储备，那性质就完全变了。 因为到那个时候： 美国不是在炒币。 而是在囤一种全球稀缺资产。 更狠的是，其他国家怎么办？ 美国开始囤，别人不跟？ 那就意味着别人眼睁睁看着美国增加自己的数字资产储备。 所以我反而认为： 真正的大行情，可能不是来自特朗普某一次讲话，而是来自美国政策最终落地的那一天。 但现在千万别把“战略储备”四个字，直接等同于Market Flash ｜ Day 5
#BTC accelerates rally, can funds continue to take over?
#White House Summit: Trump said he discussed buying BTC
Is the bull market really here?! BTC surged $10,000 in two days!
$BTC surged $10,000 in two days, driven by multiple factors, but a single sharp rise cannot be directly equated with the arrival of a bull market.
Liquidation situation: This round is a typical short squeeze, with total liquidations across the network exceeding $3.3 billion, and short liquidations accounting for over 90%. The market was generally bearish earlier, with a large accumulation of short positions; after the price broke resistance levels, forced liquidation of shorts triggered passive buying, further pushing up the price, creating a chain short squeeze, with leverage amplifying volatility.
Reasons for the rise
1. Macro level: US Treasury yields declined, the market repriced rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets.
2. Regulatory expectations: US crypto policy shift expectations heat up, spot ETF funds flow back, institutional buying provides support.
3. Capital game: Early bottom selling pressure has been digested, combined with concentrated short covering, short-term quant funds follow the trend, amplifying the rise.
Objective reminder: A significant part of this rise comes from passive short covering, not entirely new long-term spot funds. The market has entered a greed zone, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking in the short term, increasing the risk of a pullback.
To truly confirm a bull market, we need to see if the price can sustain at high levels, continuous ETF fund inflows, and the implementation of macro rate cuts; one or two big bullish candles alone are insufficient to determine the start of a bull market. Looking at the performance of the top 100 by market cap yesterday and today, this wave is indeed one of the rare broad rallies seen this year.
The most obvious change is not that a single coin surged dramatically, but that capital is starting to spread from single-point rallies to multiple sectors.
First, Meme coins are active again.
BOME, PEOPLE, NEIRO, PUMP, PENGU, WIF, PNUT, TURBO, etc., all appear among the top gainers.
A single Meme coin rising might be due to news stimulus, but a group of Memes becoming active together more reflects a rising market risk appetite.
Second, long-dormant old coins are also collectively moving.
ONT +26.90%, GAS +19.15%, QTUM +12.05%, NEO +10.08%, including STEEM entering a strong zone.
These old projects from 2017–2021 moving together indicate that capital is no longer satisfied chasing a few popular narratives but is starting to spread to low-position, high-elasticity assets.
Third, the BTC ecosystem is showing clear linkage.
STX +15.18%, ORDI +14.80%, 1000SATS +12.89%.
If only one project rises, it can be understood as individual coin logic; several projects in the same track strengthening together signals sector rotation.
Fourth, DeFi is also taking over.
ENA +29.88%, OSMO +29.26%, CRV +11.61%, LISTA +11.53%, with RSR also showing active performance.
Fifth, and what I consider most important: large-cap coins are starting to participate.
XRP +15.92%, ADA +11.74%.
This is a completely different concept from a pure small-cap rally.
If only high-elasticity coins like ONG, BOME, NEIRO are surging, it only indicates speculative sentiment has returned.
But when large-cap coins, DeFi, BTC ecosystem, Meme, and even old coins all start rotating, it shows the market’s risk appetite is spreading from localized activity to a broader range.
What’s truly worth noting these two days is a phenomenon not seen for a long time:
Money is starting to flow in different directions.
Of course, two days of broad rally is not enough to prove the market has completed a trend switch.
What we really need to watch next is whether this sector rotation can continue, and whether strong coins can maintain relative strength after the next market pullback. 如果把美国看成一个“项目方”，把美元看成这个项目发行的“代币”，很多原本复杂的宏观经济问题，突然就变得很好理解了。 任何一个项目方，想要维持自己代币的价值，首先要解决的问题，就是：谁来接盘，代币有什么用？左金右饼！#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 于是，要不断给代币寻找应用场景。DeFi 项目要做 Earn，让你把币存进去赚收益；要做 Trade，让你不断交易；要做 Pay，让代币进入支付场景。 而美国做的事情，其实也差不多。美元需要成为全球贸易的结算工具，需要成为石油、大宗商品的定价货币，需要成为各国央行的储备资产，需要成为全球金融市场的抵押品和避险资产。于是，一个个巨大的“池子”被建立起来。美债，是最大的池子。美股，尤其是 AI 和 Big Tech，是另一个巨大的池子。加密市场，也正在成为新的美元承载池。 你会发现，这些池子的一个共同任务，就是：不断吸收越来越多的美元。 而美国这个“项目方”，当然也有自己的“链上手续费”。那就是——税收。理论上，美国政府应该通过收税获得收入，然后支付军队、政府部门、公共服务和各种财政开支。这就像一个区块链项目，希望依靠手续费维持整个生态运#BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over? Bearish but not selling 🈳 Hold tight $SNDK $BTC $SPCX 📊 SanDisk (SNDK) Today's Overview
On August 20 (Thursday) close, SanDisk rose 2.02% to $1600.62, reaching an intraday high of $1631.40. It slightly retreated 1.41% after hours to $1578. Year-to-date increase is 574%, with a one-year gain exceeding 35 times.
🔍 Recent Key Developments
① Storage sector continues to strengthen: On August 20, the US stock storage sector collectively rose, SK Hynix up over 4%, Micron up over 3%. Samsung Electronics surged over 10% at one point, driven by expectations of a historic shareholder return plan.
② Hedge fund Leopold forced to liquidate $5.6 billion: AI hedge fund led by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner massively built positions in SanDisk in Q2 but suffered heavy losses due to AI sector sell-off in July, forcing most holdings to be sold to Ken Griffin's Citadel. This partly explains SanDisk's nearly halved stock price in July — the sell-off was due to forced liquidation by the fund, not deterioration of company fundamentals.
③ Institutional views generally bullish: Consensus rating from 24 analysts is "Buy," with an average target price of $2126 (33% above current), highest target at $3600. Bernstein reiterated a $3000 target. However, Jefferies maintains only $1750, with the most pessimistic target as low as $1000.
④ Significant divergence between bulls and bears remains: Q2 13F filings show Discovery Capital increased holdings to 208,000 shares, Rokos Capital up 28%; while David Tepper's Appaloosa cleared about 280,000 shares, Renaissance Technologies cut positions by over 99%.
🎯 Summary in one sentence: SanDisk continued its upward trend on Thursday, supported by the overall strength in the storage sector; Leopold's forced liquidation explains the "non-fundamental" nature of the July plunge. Institutional average target prices still imply 33% upside, but the divergence between conservative players like Jefferies and aggressive ones like Bernstein indicates the bull-bear battle is far from over. We combine Xiaomi's financial report to value Xiaomi's three major businesses: first, the smartphone business; second, IoT and internet services; third, car manufacturing:
1. Smartphone Business (Mature Hardware, Traffic Entry Point)
Current status: ASP continues to hit new highs, progress in high-end market, but rising storage chip prices suppress smartphone gross margin.
Conservative: 8-9x PE
Neutral Optimistic: 10-11x PE
However, it is expected that storage chip capacity will be released in the second half of the year, allowing smartphone gross margin to recover.
2. IoT & Internet Services (Cash Cow)
IoT acquires hardware users, internet services have 75%+ high gross margin, forming the basic profit base of Xiaomi.
Conservative: 14-16x PE
Neutral Optimistic: 18-20x PE
Strategic goal is to approach the Apple ecosystem to obtain higher valuation.
3. Car Manufacturing Business
Loss-making business, valued using PS sales ratio. Q2 has already seen delivery rebound and continuous narrowing of per-car losses; focus in the second half is on the delivery performance of the Pengcheng series.
Conservative: 0.8-1.0x PS
Neutral Optimistic: 1.4-1.8x PS (with synergy premium for human-vehicle-home ecosystem)
Note: Cash flow is sufficient
Conservative scenario: HKD 27
Neutral midpoint: HKD 33
Optimistic scenario: HKD 40
Personal opinion combined with AI analysis, please kindly advise.On the chessboard, a pawn marked "Initial Jobless Claims" gently advances—206,000, one square more than everyone expected. The sound of the move echoes in the silent midgame; the players who were ready to sacrifice a piece for a rate cut now hesitate with their fingers hovering in midair.
I am the player sitting in the corner. In this industry for twenty years, I've learned not to judge a chess game by its surface. The initial claims data every Thursday night (Eastern Time) is just a tick on the chess clock. This week: 206,000, revised from the previous 209,000 to 212,000. On the surface, this is a "defensive reinforcement." But true grandmasters know its real intent is to adjust the tactical rhythm of the entire small king's wing. The market had almost unilaterally bet that the Fed would quickly turn dovish due to weak employment. That kind of bet is like an amateur player opening with a queen attack—focusing on a single target while ignoring that the opponent's pawn chain has quietly locked down the center.
We often say in chess: advantage is not about how many pieces you capture, but whether the position is within your calculation. This initial claims data beating expectations by 4,000 certainly reduces the urgency to turn dovish, but it doesn't change any fundamental structure. It's like Black exchanging the h-pawn for the g-pawn, seemingly affecting the pawn formation, but White's king remains safely in place, and the rook on the queen's wing is not restrained. The real big picture still hangs on the three-step deep calculation involving inflation, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC meeting. Those trembling over this small step probably forgot: the outcome of chess is never decided by a single move, but by the coordinated forces you reserve for the endgame.
And the XSKHY I’m watching is especially delicate. It’s like a queen’s knight placed on e5—advancing risks falling into the opponent’s pawn net; staying put controls two important squares simultaneously. Today's data gives it no reason to break out, nor does it bring a threat of encirclement. The board is as quiet as the moment waiting for the opponent’s king and rook to castle: all seemingly obvious attack routes hide counterattacks. In a grandmaster’s mind, every move must anticipate twenty moves ahead. The current initial claims data isn’t even a "passing pawn" in the midgame, at best a waiting move. But the market is often fooled by such waiting moves. Retail investors cheer when it’s "better than expected" and flee when it’s "worse than expected," unaware that true masters are setting up the endgame—using today’s resilience to force the Fed into a clearer dovish path in the future. When the opponent is forced to choose between "inflation defense" and "employment loosening," that’s when we gain real advantage.
So I do not move. Let those eager to "check" with one week’s data push their queens forward. My king’s wing pawns remain unmoved, the center is locked in a multi-pawn standoff, and the open lines on the queen’s wing are still controlled by my two rooks. This resume of 206,000 proves only one thing: the opponent called "the labor market" has yet to show a flaw. And my advantage lies precisely in that—you all are focused on this immediate move, while I have already written down the next twenty moves on my draft paper.
The square for move 20 still has no name.
#ImpactCycle·Weekly #MacroData·Employment #206K·Expectations210K When that stack of draft prospectuses was thrown onto the desk, I immediately smelled the rust of concrete dampness—not a design blueprint, but a damage report on the load-bearing walls.
The layout was set on June 1, with plans to reach zero elevation by the end of August; this smart company’s ambition to rush the schedule is considerable. But when you open the general structural description: annualized revenue of $65 billion, with a generously sized floor area; adjusted operating profit turned positive, but it’s just like applying a layer of moisture-proof coating on the shear walls. The truly glaring detail is the fine print—an estimated net loss of $42 billion in 2025. On any construction site, this would mean the foundation settlement exceeds the design allowable by three times—would you still dare to forcefully repair the underground garage? Structural engineers reading the prospectus first look for the load combinations: whether the IPO financing amount and the loss figures are placed under dead load or live load columns, each added load corresponds to a muffled thud on the site.
Anyone in our field knows that no matter how grand the whitepaper renderings are, they can’t beat a real structural calculation sheet. SpaceX’s $75 billion financing is equivalent to the neighboring plot building a tower crane with rocket recovery technology—that’s a proprietary patent. What about this company? The load-bearing walls are enterprise customer orders, and the permanent load is the computing power electricity cost. The higher the floors climb, the fiercer the wind load—the typhoon of large model training, can your scale law seismic system really withstand it? Q2 revenue is $11.5 billion, annualized to $65 billion, this growth rate is like a tower crane working nonstop for seventy-two hours. But every floor’s net profit is absorbed by the giant pile of computing power costs; the rebar surface is labeled "adjusted profit," but inside it’s still corroded. The green shoe mechanism of $8.62 billion? That’s just a backup footing, able to buffer uneven settlement, but it can’t fix the missing "economic cement" in the concrete mix.
I’ve reviewed countless projects by “rendering masters”: some died from foundation pit water inflow, some were destroyed by curtain wall wind pressure, some collapsed amid the opening ceremony fireworks. This secretly submitted prospectus is equivalent to digging out the zero elevation from underground, exposing it under every structural engineer’s telescope. Then everyone will ask: is the so-called "enterprise-level revenue" really a load-bearing shear wall, or just a row of light steel keel gypsum boards? The capital market’s spotlight shines on the facade lighting, but it can’t penetrate the abandoned wires hidden in the mechanical and electrical shafts. The worst isn’t the net loss figure, but that the structural system lacks a continuous load transfer path—from model training to enterprise delivery, every beam and column is temporarily assembled by outsourced teams, bolts aren’t tightened, welds aren’t inspected.
I’ve seen too many boxes that look good on the outside: glass curtain walls reflecting daylight, a twelve-meter-high lobby on the first floor, but the piping in the equipment mezzanine is tangled like a ball of yarn. Anthropic’s pre-IPO night is like suddenly requiring a wind tunnel test before topping out the building—you’ll find that the so-called "scalable" architecture drifts beyond code limits under strong wind. What does adjusted profit turning positive mean? It’s just placing settlement observation points on the non-load-bearing side. The real load test is making every dollar of revenue carry the cost of every kilowatt-hour of electricity through the load transfer path, not stamping a "passed" wink on the calculation sheet.
I won’t sign off on completion for a super high-rise without a structural calculation sheet. #AnthropicIPONears MRNA's recent movement is quite interesting
On August 19, Moderna and Merck announced the Phase 3 interim results of the mRNA cancer vaccine
The personalized vaccine combined with Keytruda showed significant superiority over Keytruda alone in melanoma
The trial enrolled 1,137 participants, achieving both primary and secondary endpoints
Previous Phase 2b five-year data: recurrence risk reduced by 49%, distant metastasis risk reduced by 59%
On the day of the announcement, the stock price surged from 63 to 174, a 177% increase
It dropped 23% the next day, closing at 133
//
This is a real scientific breakthrough
mRNA has proven itself for the first time in a large-scale cancer Phase 3 trial
No longer just a COVID vaccine
But I won’t chase it in trading
After the drop, MRNA is still 63% above the analysts' average target price of 82.62
The company posted a net loss of 782 million last quarter, with revenue of 145 million
Personalized production, costs, approvals—each step takes time
How much of the 177% surge was driven by sentiment and short covering? The 23% drop the next day partly answers that
//
Moderna indeed has a new data-backed story
But the current price already factors in many optimistic expectations
I won’t chase, but I don’t dismiss it either
Waiting for complete data, no rush
The above is purely personal observation and not investment advice. Dyor
$MU $ETH This short squeeze is even stronger than BTC's
On 8.20, a massive bullish candle of 18.5% pushed from 2,090 to 2,248, and this morning it stabilized between 2,317–2,338. In two days, it rallied from the 1,900 range by over 20%. But coinglass shows that on 8/19, ETH futures shorts were liquidated by over 1 billion dollars in a single day, which is clearly a short squeeze, not new inflow, just like BTC.
Institutions are really buying this time: spot ETFs have had net inflows for 3 consecutive days, with about 189–220 million dollars on 8/19 alone (ETHA leading with 122 million+, FETH 36.53 million+), the largest single-day inflow in nearly 9 months, with a monthly total of about 345 million. Fidelity's FETH 100% staking amendment is still going through the SEC process; the staking ETF narrative hasn't fully played out yet, which is a unique incremental logic for ETH.
However, the RSI dropped from 46.5 into the overbought zone, indicating a large short-term deviation; also, today the 30-year US Treasury weakened again, and the 10-year yield returned to 4.7%, so expectations for liquidity easing still need confirmation. Trump's call for the CLARITY Act and the SEC's 402-page rule draft are emotional fuel, not concrete positive news; this is not a realization of good news but likely expectation hype. Be careful, Trump might pull a taco on you.An easily overlooked fact: OKB currently cannot be used to offset OKX trading fees.
Therefore, an increase in OKX trading volume does not necessarily directly translate to an increase in OKB value. When analyzing OKB, more attention should be paid to X Layer's Gas, staking, and ecosystem usage.BTC has risen above 75,000, surging 10,000 in two days, and the whole network is saying the bears have been crushed.
Don't just see the short squeeze; the squeeze is only the fuse, the real strength comes from a major liquidity shift.
The 30Y US Treasury yield has soared to a new high of 5.34% since 2007, forcing the US Treasury to increase long-term bond repurchases, with market calls hoping to push it directly to 10-30 billion per month.
The money released from the bond market has to find an outlet, and BTC is the asset most sensitive to liquidity.
$BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Brothers, yesterday BTC directly surged to 69,000, and ETH also climbed back above 2000+. This move was really sudden!
The core points are three:
1. US debt repurchase doubled, liquidity expectations improved
2. Over 1.4 billion shorts were forcibly liquidated, short squeeze accelerated
3. ETF funds flowed back + regulatory signals turned warmer
Now the key question: Is this a bottom reversal signal, or just a rebound after a pure short squeeze?
My personal view: In the short term, it will most likely pull back to digest first (BTC key support at 66,500-67,000), medium term depends on whether ETF can sustain net inflows and the progress of the Clarity Act.
What do you think? Should we chase the rally directly, or wait for a pullback to get in? Share your views in the comments, I'll debate with you!$BTC $ETH People often ask me, if I give you another 10,000 yuan, can you still make it work?
If it's just a small amount of capital, constantly trial and error, giving a few more 10,000 yuan, under my 10x leverage, it's very easy to compound profits.
But what if all the funds are liquidated and only 10,000 yuan is left?
You might fall into a huge sense of loss from gaining and then losing, in an environment of constant self-doubt, not knowing if you still have the courage to stand up again.
Although in recent years I have consistently recovered from 50% drawdowns and maintained asset ATH, I still fear if the market suddenly loses liquidity, how I could make money in a situation with no volatility.
This question leads to some thoughts on how to ensure the chips in hand never get completely lost?
Doing some capital isolation, even buying some property, trying to make your safety cushion thick enough so it’s impossible to lose it all. Yesterday I watched a video by Sister Mao. She also experienced going to zero three times but is now close to entering the A9 million-dollar club. Her interview sounded like hearing a lot of principles but felt like not hearing anything at all. Haha
But if I go back to the kind of life in 2020, under pressure, I wouldn’t know how to start over. So, large capital is conservative, small capital tries high risk, which is the path needed after growing big.Key turning point signal! Treasury Secretary's major dual statements, bond market contradicted, BTC strengthens against the trend 🔥
The most core macro rhythm across the entire network, see through the current market in one sentence!
Latest dual heavy remarks from the U.S. Treasury Secretary:
✅ Middle East cools down: abandoning large-scale military actions, only using economic sanctions to suppress Iran, short-term geopolitical black swan risk relieved!
❌ Bond market contradicted: calling for increased Treasury buybacks, claiming the deficit has peaked, but U.S. Treasury yields directly rebounded and U.S. stocks plunged!
Key truth:
The Treasury's market rescue is only verbal intervention, not a Federal Reserve rate cut, treating symptoms not the root cause, the bond market completely unconvinced!
But the crypto circle shows independent resilience!
BTC surged violently 12% in two days, fundamentally not relying on liquidity, fully benefiting from the policy expectation dividend of the U.S. Clarity Act!
New variable: Japan's inflation rises, subsequent rate hike expectations heat up, global macro still hiding volatility.
⚠️ Current biggest contradiction:
Bond market pressure not relieved, macro concerns remain, the market is fully supported by crypto policy expectations!
Whether it can continue depends only on the September 15 bill vote + U.S. Treasury movement! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $ETH $SOL $DOGE After Micron's market value surpassed $1 trillion, it invested $10 billion to establish a laboratory. The core conflict lies in the risk trade-off between the near- to mid-term massive capital expenditures suppressing cash flow and the long-term AI storage pricing power.
$MU's single-day rise of 3.9% reflects market sentiment rapidly improving under high-profile political and corporate endorsements, with bullish funds concentrating short-term bets on its industry position. However, the annual $1 billion R&D combined with capital expenditure plans of $28 billion for fiscal 2026 and $47 billion for fiscal 2027 will directly alter institutions' discounted free cash flow models.
Currently, the main drivers in the market are ranked as follows: first, the increased risk appetite brought by political and client endorsements; second, the high-profit cycle of storage chips due to supply shortages; third, concerns over capital expenditure eroding cash flow. When capital expenditure jumps from $28 billion to $47 billion, marginal funds will begin to reassess profit sustainability.
The upside scenario triggers if the chip supply-demand tightness lasts longer than expected, and high profit margins can absorb the added Capex pressure. At this point, it is necessary to observe whether the free cash flow yield for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 can remain above the valuation support line; if quarterly results show continued gross margin expansion, bulls will push valuation premiums further.
The downside scenario triggers if the industry cycle peaks causing product average prices to fall, with high fixed asset depreciation and annual new investments amplifying profit elasticity downside risks. If long-term funds sensitive to high Capex begin to withdraw from the position structure, loosening chips will trigger valuation compression and lower trading targets.
For the bullish logic, invalidation signals are a reversal downward in storage chip product average prices and a reduction in the $47 billion capital expenditure plan for fiscal 2027; for the bearish logic, invalidation signals are the early achievement of high gross margin mass production of next-generation advanced packaging products, fully covering cash outflows with excess returns.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the overall risk appetite transmission in the semiconductor sector and long-term institutional position adjustments under massive Capex expectations.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大At the BTC 74939 level, institutional voices alternatingly speaking up can no longer ignite genuine buying pressure; the order book can only be observed through the actions of the most fundamental funds. Spot orders have continuous buy orders supporting between 73600 and 74000, and the perpetual funding rate has quickly returned from negative to positive, indicating that shorts are beginning to cover. Open interest contracts have accumulated above 74600, creating obvious stop-loss liquidity. Under this structure, as long as the pullback does not break 73600, the bulls control the rhythm. Once it reclaims 75200, the stop-losses of shorts above will be triggered collectively, causing a short squeeze. Just turned the car into an old neighborhood without an elevator; when the client got off, I glanced at the transaction details—there were indeed active taker orders around 74200, not fake limit orders. In terms of operation, do not chase highs; wait for a pullback to the 74200 to 74600 range to lightly buy long positions, with a stop-loss defense at 73580. If it breaks below, it means the buying pressure is fake and you must exit. The first take-profit target above is 75600, the second take-profit target is 76800, with a sufficient risk-reward ratio. If it falls below 73600 with volume, the rebound logic is directly invalidated; do not reverse positions, wait for the next accumulation zone.
$BTC
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
@OKX星球 After BTC surged, altcoins started telling their own stories.
PONS up 50% in one day (Robinhood Chain launched for a month with trading volume exceeding 2.5 billion, repurchasing and burning 28% of circulation); TRUMP meme +25%; Hyperliquid's HYPE +19%; SOL also +11%.
This kind of "platform tokens + meme + independent catalysts" rising together hasn't been seen since the end of last year.
But don't get carried away. Those who shouted "altcoin season" every time altcoins rose were trapped last year. Watching if the trading volume can sustain is more important than the price increase.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 8.21 BTC trading idea: Buy around 2330-2350, stop loss at 2300, first target 2400, second target 2450
ETH current price 2347, after yesterday's surge, the price is consolidating strongly at a high level with no obvious selling pressure release. Short-term moving averages are diverging upwards; as long as the pullback does not break 2330, the bullish trend continues. In this structure, pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Don't fear the highs. In a strong market, the less willing you are to buy, the more it rises; the longer you wait for a pullback, the less likely it will come. As long as the structure holds, following the trend to go long is much safer than trying to guess the top against the trend.
Short-term focus:
Support below: 2330-2320
Stop loss: 2300
First target above: 2400
Second target: 2450
In terms of operation, enter long positions in batches within the 2330-2350 range, with a unified stop loss at 2300. Reduce positions to protect profits when the first target 2400 is reached, and hold the remaining positions aiming for 2450. Do not go all in at once; enter in batches, control risk well, and leave the rest to the trend.
Once the trend forms, it will not end easily. Follow the trend, don't fight the market #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $ETH Maya Protocol 在 8 月 18 日遭遇了一次很少见的组合攻击。攻击者没有破解私钥。单个缺陷也不足以直接拿走资产。一笔包含 23 条消息的交易，把 6 个各自有限的问题接在了一起。 攻击链的关键，是协议把一笔已经完成的转账误判成了盗窃。按照原本的安全设计，系统会惩罚相关节点，并向受影响的流动性池补偿 CACAO。问题在于，这笔补偿没有按池子深度设置上限。一个只剩极少 LINK 的池子，因此被账面记入约 4945 万 CACAO。 更严重的是，协议先修改了池子的账面余额，之后才尝试从储备模块转入对应资产。真实转账因为余额不足而失败，但前面的状态更新没有回滚，错误也只被记录后继续执行。于是，链上出现了一笔没有真实资产支持的余额。 攻击者随后向这个接近空池的池子加入少量资产，拿到几乎全部池份额，再把账面上的 CACAO 提走并换成真实资产。这里真正失守的不是某个价格公式，而是两个基本不变量：补偿不能超过可验证的损失；账面记账与实际转账必须同时成功或同时失败。 这类事件也解释了为什么“代码审计过”不等于攻击路径已经被覆盖。单独看每个问题，可能都不足以造成损失；但批量消息、异常顺序、$BTC pulled from 68000 to 75000, the fundamental reason is not technical, but liquidity.
The U.S. Treasury announced an increase in long-term Treasury repurchases, raising the single operation limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
What does this mean? There is more money in the market, yields have dropped, and risk assets have risen.
BTC and the S&P 500 have a negative correlation of -72%, indicating this rally is macro-driven and decoupled from the stock market.
I opened a short at 72500, with a stop loss at 75000, currently at an unrealized loss.
Losing 200,000 U and recovering, understanding the fundamental reason prevents being led by the market.
No holding without a position, always set stop loss, admit mistakes when wrong, hold when right.
If 75000 can't be broken, hold the short; if 75000 is surpassed, stop loss and accept the loss.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ C加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？Bitcoin breaks through $75,000, crossing above the 200-day moving average for the first time in nine months. This rally has shattered the market's short-term bearish expectations and directly changed the assessment of the breakeven cycle for BTC holders.
1) First, look at the price reaction
2) The weight of three pieces of news
First, CoinDesk reported Bitcoin breaking $75,000, with analysts saying 'the bear market is in pain,' reflecting a shift in market sentiment from defense to offense; second, Strategy's unrealized losses on holdings narrowed to $685 million, and if the price rises another $800, it will break even, indicating increased sensitivity of large funds to price changes; third, BTC crossing above the 200-day moving average is a key technical milestone, not seen in the past nine months, suggesting the trend may be entering a new phase.
Supporting factors include BTC crossing above the 200-day moving average, forming a technical trend anchor, while institutions like Strategy recovering their positions, indicating some large funds have shifted from pessimism to a wait-and-see stance. The pressure lies in the US Treasury expanding bond buybacks; if subsequent policies turn tighter, it may weaken liquidity support for risk assets, especially potentially suppressing high-volatility assets like ETH.
Next, watch the follow-up actions of the US Treasury's bond buyback plan and whether institutions like Strategy gradually adjust their positions after the price stabilizes. If the price continues to hold above $75,000, one can observe changes in their holding structure, but it needs to be verified whether this is accompanied by real capital inflows.
This is for informational and market scenario analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.$BTC #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue?
$BTC surged to 72,000, up 11.8% in 24 hours. It had been consolidating between 64,000-65,000 for the past two months, then a big bullish candle pierced through.
Shorts were crushed. Hitting 72,000 triggered $3.49 billion in liquidations, with shorts accounting for $2.92 billion; over $3.1 billion in short liquidations occurred within two days. After two months of sideways movement, short positions had accumulated heavily, and the breakout triggered a cascade of liquidations, with buying further pushing the price up.
Three catalysts ignited simultaneously:
US Treasury repo size doubled, long bond yields declined, reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC. The White House held an emergency meeting where Trump gathered CEOs from Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, and others, urging the passage of crypto legislation by year-end; the market interpreted this as increased regulatory certainty. ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1 billion for three consecutive days, with $517 million inflow on August 19 alone, the highest since May 4; these are real cash buy orders.
$ETH rose over 19%, SOL over 13%, HYPE over 26%. Crypto concept stocks also strengthened, with MSTR up over 9% pre-market.
The key to holding above 72,000 lies in whether spot trading volume can keep up. Leverage-driven rallies require buy-side support; if spot volume is insufficient, profit-taking at high levels and renewed leverage buildup will amplify the correction. On Polymarket, the probability of reaching 75,000 by the end of this month is only 6%. 财政部刚刚“救”完美债一天，30Y又回到5.26%，所以美国真的开始YCC了吗 #美股 #AI #半导体 𝗔𝗜需求没有崩，市场正在从“买AI”变成“买确定性” 昨晚美股继续调整。 道指 -1.32%，标普500 -0.87%，纳指 -1.00%。 但半导体内部完全不是一个走势： $MRVL +5.8%
$MU +3.97%
$AVGO +0.43%
$NVDA 小幅下跌 现在的市场其实很有意思 指数在交易美债和油价，资金却开始在AI里面寻找真正有订单、有现金流的公司。 ① 最重要利好 $MU 真正的利好不是涨4%，而是海力士和三星开始把AI赚到的钱还给股东。 SK海力士宣布回购并注销40万亿韩元股票，约287亿美元，同时把股东回报政策提高到自由现金流的50%以上。 过去市场一直担心： HBM赚很多钱 → 存储厂商疯狂扩产 → 最后重新变成DRAM价格战。 但现在海力士开始把大量现金直接返还股东。 这至少说明一个问题： 𝗔𝗜存储带来的现金流，已经强到可以支撑大规模股东回报。 三星也准备提高股东回报。 所以我现在对MU的判断反而比前几天更积极。 真正值得观察的已经不是HBM价格还能BTC突破了。真正值得聊的，不是涨了多少，而是这一轮到底变了什么 截至今天 8月21日上午，BTC已经站上 $72,000附近，过去几天从$64K附近一路拉升，累计涨幅已经超过10%。更关键的是，这次直接打穿了持续数周的$62K–$66.9K震荡区间。 这一下，盘面逻辑真的变了。 之前： $62K–66K震荡 → 每次冲高都被卖 → 多头不敢追 → 空头不断加仓 现在： 突破$66K → 突破$70K → 空头止损 → 大量空单被强平 → 被迫买回BTC → 价格继续上冲 → ETH、SOL等开始跟涨 这次的上涨里，空头挤压是非常重要的加速器。过去这轮行情中，空头清算规模达到数十亿美元级别。 但如果只是逼空，我反而不会特别兴奋。 真正让我觉得有意思的是：现货资金也开始回来。 8月19日美国现货BTC ETF净流入约 $5.17亿，ETH ETF也录得约 $1.89亿净流入。也就是说，这次并不是单纯的合约市场自己玩起来了。 再加上美国财政部扩大长期美债回购规模，市场对债券流动性和美元环境的预期出现变化，也给BTC这种硬资产叙事提供了新的催化剂。 所以现在最重要的链路已经变成： 宏观流动性The U.S. is repurchasing Treasury bonds, and $BTC is already eyeing 180k?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the Treasury will regularly repurchase long-term Treasuries, with the scale possibly exceeding the previously announced $4 billion.
Macro strategist Mark Connors believes that if repurchases further expand to $10 billion to $30 billion per month, combined with relaxed bank bond-holding restrictions, pressure on long-term yields could ease, and BTC might challenge $180,000 sooner.
He thinks high-yield U.S. Treasuries will divert risk capital; repurchases pushing bond prices up and yields down could improve market liquidity.
Previously, a large number of short positions clustered around $72,000; after BTC rose above this level, the covering of shorts also amplified the rally.
However, the issue here is that Treasury repurchases do not equal direct money printing, and the initial scale of $4 billion is insufficient alone to support a Bitcoin bull market.
What really matters is whether repurchases continue to expand, whether the 10-year yield falls back, and whether U.S. dollar liquidity noticeably improves.
The $180,000 target is expected only after multiple conditions are met simultaneously; in the short term, attention should be paid to whether the CLARITY Act can make progress before September 15, otherwise cooling policy expectations may first lead to a pullback.
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 $BTC 8.21 Morning Big Cake:
Big Cake has hit a new high again! It went straight up to 75025, leaving the bears with swollen faces!
Those who previously shouted that it would fall below 70,000 are probably still confused now. This trend is clearly bullish, with all moving averages supporting the upward move, and momentum is strong. Stop stubbornly holding short positions!
The main strategy is simple: buy on dips! If it falls to 738-740 and stabilizes, get in immediately. The first target is the previous high at 750; if broken, continue aiming for 755-758, with a stop loss just below 735.
Those wanting to short can only lightly test the top. If it surges to 750-752 and stalls, play a small position to earn from the pullback and then exit. Don’t really think it can reverse; going against the trend only hurts yourself.
Remember: holding above 752 means accelerating the rally; breaking below 738 counts as a pullback. Follow the trend to profit, go against it and get hit! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #South Korea KOSPI closes up 5.9% driven by chip buybacks South Korean stock market surged 5.9% in one day, not because the economy suddenly took off, but because chip giants started returning AI earnings to shareholders.
KOSPI closed today at 6852.58 points, up 5.89% in a single day.
There are only two real engines:
SK Hynix +12.73%
Samsung Electronics +9.49%
Why such a sudden surge?
SK Hynix announced:
They will spend 40 trillion KRW, about $28.6 billion, to repurchase and cancel shares.
They also promised to return at least 50% of free cash flow to shareholders from 2025 to 2027.
Immediately after, the market also reported:
Samsung may launch a shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW, about $71.8 billion.
In one sentence:
AI chip companies used to tell the market "I can still make a lot of money," now it’s directly "I’m using the money I earned to buy back my own stock."
These two moves are on a completely different scale.
Foreign investors net bought about 1.7 trillion KRW of Korean stocks that day, combined with the decline in US long-term bond yields, reigniting risk appetite.
But don’t forget:
Samsung’s 100 trillion plan is currently just media reports; the company has not officially confirmed it.
So what I’m more focused on is not that KOSPI rose 5.9% today.
But a bigger change:
In the next phase of the AI market, the market may no longer just look at "who grows fastest," but start to look at "who can really turn AI profits into cash and return it to shareholders." 8月19日晚，美国财政部突然宣布，将美债的流动性回购规模，从每次最多20亿美元提高到至少40亿美元。消息出来后，市场迅速把它理解成财政部在给长期美债托底，30年期美债收益率从高位明显回落，美元也同步走弱。 这也直接带动了风险资产反弹，比特币一度突破7万美元，以太坊也明显走强。 但仅仅过了一天，市场又变了。 昨天美债收益率又开始重新上行，30年期收益率一度回到5.24%左右，美股则出现明显回撤。标普500下跌0.9%，纳指下跌1%，把前天的涨幅直接抹去。 看起来市场并没有因一时的利好，而接受债务会改善的预期，甚至美财长表示回购规模可能翻倍，也无济于事。 需要明确，财政部的回购计划解决的是流动性问题，但并没有解决债务和财政赤字的问题。 美国政府债务已超过40万亿美元，长期国债收益率之所以持续处在高位，并不只是因为市场缺流动性，更重要的是投资者正在要求更高的期限溢价。 简单说，财政部可以买回一些流动性较差的老债，改善市场交易，但它无法靠回购直接消除巨额财政赤字，也无法阻止未来继续发行大量国债。 所以市场第一天看到的是财政部出手了，第二天看到的却是问题依然还在。 连摩根大通都警告，如果市场认为Let's talk about SUI today, a public chain that is becoming increasingly controversial. Some say it will become the next star asset, while others feel its price increase has already been overextended. My view is that what truly determines SUI's value is not the short-term price, but the speed of ecosystem growth. Recently, more and more projects are choosing to deploy on the SUI ecosystem, and on-chain activity and capital flow remain worth watching. Many people always think about buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest, but end up missing the trend time and again. The hardest thing in a bull market is not picking coins, but holding on; in a volatile market, the hardest thing is not judging direction, but controlling position size. I won't change my long-term plan based on daily price fluctuations; I focus more on whether capital continues to flow in and whether the ecosystem continues to develop. If the overall market warms up later, SUI still has a chance to become an important target for capital rotation. Of course, every coin carries risk, and position management is always more important than emotions. Do you think SUI will be the first to break out this round, or will it continue to consolidate and build strength? Feel free to share your views in the comments. #SUI #PublicChainEcosystem #OuyiPlanet #Cryptocurrency #CryptoCommunityObservation BTC hasn't surged dramatically, so why are veteran players becoming increasingly calm? Many people think a bull market means a daily 10% jump, but in reality, major moves often happen amid sideways trading where chips are exchanged. Recently, BTC has been consolidating at high levels; many have been liquidated, but long-term holders are quietly adding to their positions. The more anxious the market sentiment, the more it indicates that funds are reshuffling. Historically, every major rally was preceded by a phase that made people doubt the bull market was still alive. Currently, on-chain funds remain active, and institutional holdings haven't seen large-scale withdrawals, which is a key reason many continue to be bullish on the market. My view is: don't chase the rally, don't panic, and don't change your long-term plan based on daily price swings. If BTC breaks through key resistance again, a new trend might attract more off-exchange capital; if it continues to consolidate, that will be an opportunity for the patient. Making money in crypto often depends less on prediction skills and more on execution and time. Do you think this BTC cycle will break new highs first, or will it continue to consolidate and shake out weak hands? #BTC #Bitcoin #OuyiPlanet #Cryptocurrency #BullMarketWatch 08.19 The whale shorting $BTC with $85.58 million is stubbornly taking hits 🙉
After being liquidated 240 BTC with a loss of $1.112 million yesterday afternoon, this morning they proactively reduced their position by 350 BTC, taking a loss of $2.581 million, lowering the margin usage rate to 101%; currently, nearly half of the 40x short position remains (610.01 BTC), valued at $45.58 million, with an unrealized loss of $4.783 million
Not everyone is as disciplined as the big target guy, who stops losses when they say so...
Portal 👉 0x66f889094739dbb7d20aa60f645acd88feba75a9$BTC On the larger time frame, there will still be a wave of pullback, but future pullbacks are unlikely to fall below 60k. This rally has turned the downtrend into a sideways consolidation.Sisters! I woke up to find my account green again (the kind of green that means making money) 💚
BTC current price 74600, +6% in 24 hours, an 11% surge in two days. The big coin that was lying flat and playing dead at 63000 just a couple of days ago shot straight up above 74000. $3 billion worth of shorts wiped out overnight, 190,000 liquidations, the largest single one at $48.8 million — short sellers, line up on the rooftop.
Why this surge? Three fires:
1. Trump’s White House summoned Coinbase and Kraken bigwigs for a meeting, pressuring Congress to pass the CLARITY Act by year-end;
2. The US Treasury doubled its long bond buybacks, yields plunged, flooding the market with liquidity, benefiting risk assets;
3. Shorts were too crowded, a little spark caused a chain reaction of stampedes.
Standard Chartered has already called for $100,000 by year-end. But note: the Senate procedural vote on September 15 is a critical juncture, and there’s still a 35% chance of a rate hike at the September FOMC, so don’t get too carried away.
Key levels: resistance at 75000 (new battleground for bulls and bears); support at 70000 and 68600 (if these hold on pullbacks, it’s a sign of strength).
In short: after a month of consolidation, the direction is finally clear. A pullback is a buying opportunity—I’ve already converted my bubble tea money into spot 🧋XRP Observation on August 21｜Understanding Account Reserves After the Heat Rises
Today, both the discussion volume and spot trading of XRP have heated up. More important than price fluctuations is understanding why the XRP Ledger simultaneously designs transaction costs and account reserves: the former is not paid to any validator but is permanently destroyed when the transaction enters the validated ledger, used to increase the cost of spam requests and network attacks.
Official documentation shows that the base cost for ordinary transactions is usually 10 drops, which dynamically increases when network load rises. Accounts must maintain a base reserve, and each object occupying ledger space held increases the owner reserve. These parameters can be adjusted by validators through a fee voting mechanism and are not permanently fixed.
Low cost and fast confirmation can reduce payment friction, but this does not mean usage will automatically grow, nor does it mean token valuation will rise with protocol parameters. Future focus should be on real settlement demand, ledger activity, liquidity, and regulatory changes.
It is also important to distinguish the relationship between XRP and its underlying ledger: technical availability can improve independently, but market price will still be influenced by supply, demand, and sentiment.
$XRP #XRP
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. $BTC has recently surged past the $72,000 mark with gains close to 15%, reaching a high near the $74,000 range, marking a new peak in over two months.
The rise is not purely driven by sentiment. The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion per operation, directly easing bond yield pressures and injecting liquidity into risk assets.
The Trump administration signaled support for clearer crypto regulation (Clarity Act), combined with White House-industry dialogues, further boosting market confidence.
Technically, BTC successfully broke out of the six-week consolidation range between $62,000 and $66,900, triggering approximately $3 billion in short liquidations, forming a classic short squeeze spiral.
On-chain data shows the short-term holder cost basis (around $68,500) has been reclaimed, and the 200-day moving average has been surpassed, shifting market structure from consolidation to a bullish recovery.
The next key resistance is concentrated near $75,800 at the "real market average"—a level representing the average cost of active investors.
If this level is effectively broken and held, it could open the door to higher price ranges. Some analyses suggest that if momentum continues, targets of $80,000 or even higher may come into view.
Currently, indicators like RSI have entered overbought territory, increasing short-term profit-taking pressure; after the short squeeze rally, if spot buying and ETF inflows fail to sustain, prices may enter a phase of high volatility consolidation. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 今天市场的核心结论是：风险偏好重新转弱，但BTC与美股之间出现了非常明显的分化。隔夜美股三大指数集体下跌，道指跌超1%，此前美国财政部扩大长期国债回购带来的利率缓解只维持了很短时间，美债收益率重新反弹。与此同时，美伊局势进一步紧张，布伦特原油已经升至接近94美元，通胀压力重新成为市场核心矛盾。反而是BTC继续大幅走强，截至发稿已经来到7.33万美元附近，短期加密市场正在表现出明显强于传统风险资产的独立性。 一、隔夜发生了什么？ 1. 美债收益率重新反弹，财政部干预带来的“利率缓解”迅速消退 事实： 隔夜美股重新出现明显调整。 道琼斯指数下跌1.32%，收于52,759.21点； 标普500下跌0.87%，收于7,641.16点； 纳斯达克综合指数下跌约1.00%，收于26,067.17点。 而就在前一天，美国财政部宣布将10—30年期长期国债的单次回购规模至少提高至40亿美元，一度推动长期美债收益率明显下降。 但昨天债券市场很快重新承压。 美国10年期国债收益率重新回到约4.70%附近，30年期收益率再次升至约5.24%。 市场反应： 此前因为长期利率下降而反弹的科技股再次受到压力，美#FinancialReportObserver: Pop Mart's Growth Shifts Gears, Can Multiple IPs Take Over?
Pop Mart just released its half-year report, here are some interesting points.
Revenue reached 17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-on-year. Sounds decent? But last year's full-year growth was 184%, so this shift feels like suddenly slamming the brakes. Adjusted net profit was 5.16 billion, with growth only 9.5%, revenue up but profit not increasing. Wang Ning openly admitted in the conference call — this year’s 20% growth target is very likely to be missed. When the boss says this, you can judge for yourself.
The IPs are noteworthy. THE MONSTERS remains the leader at 4.45 billion, but down 7.5% year-on-year. Last year, when LABUBU was hottest, Wang Ning proactively "put out the fire," halting new products and controlling licensing; this year the pace continues to slow. The successor, Star People, hit 2.65 billion in half a year, with a staggering 580% growth. CRYBABY, DIMOO, SKULLPANDA, and Little Wild all surpassed 1 billion; six IPs broke 1 billion, eleven exceeded 100 million, the matrix is taking shape.
But MOLLY dropped 33%, down to only 900 million, a 20-year-old IP clearly declining. In the trendy toy industry, there is no forever top star.
Overseas revenue is under pressure, gross margin slightly down from 70.3% to 69.7%. They responded by announcing a 2 to 5 billion buyback, giving a reassuring signal.
Judgment: The growth shift is a fact, and the multi-IP relay is initially working. Whether Star People can sustain and where the next hit will come from are key going forward. Whether LABUBU’s cooldown is justified will be clear in half a year. $DOGE 8月19日晚，美国财政部突然宣布，将美债的流动性回购规模，从每次最多20亿美元提高到至少40亿美元。消息出来后，市场迅速把它理解成财政部在给长期美债托底，30年期美债收益率从高位明显回落，美元也同步走弱。 这也直接带动了风险资产反弹，比特币一度突破7万美元，以太坊也明显走强。$ETH 但仅仅过了一天，市场又变了。 昨天美债收益率又开始重新上行，30年期收益率一度回到5.24%左右，美股则出现明显回撤。标普500下跌0.9%，纳指下跌1%，把前天的涨幅直接抹去。 看起来市场并没有因一时的利好，而接受债务会改善的预期，甚至美财长表示回购规模可能翻倍，也无济于事。 需要明确，财政部的回购计划解决的是流动性问题，但并没有解决债务和财政赤字的问题。 美国政府债务已超过40万亿美元，长期国债收益率之所以持续处在高位，并不只是因为市场缺流动性，更重要的是投资者正在要求更高的期限溢价。 简单说，财政部可以买回一些流动性较差的老债，改善市场交易，但它无法靠回购直接消除巨额财政赤字，也无法阻止未来继续发行大量国债。 所以市场第一天看到的是财政部出手了，第二天看到的却是问题依然还在。 连摩根大通都警告，扩