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#BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
After several months of low volatility, BTC broke through directly, surpassing $75,000. This surge flushed out a large number of shorts, with nearly $3 billion liquidated across the market in 24 hours, many short positions were directly wiped out.
There is indeed an increase in capital inflow; ETF funds are flowing back, with BTC and ETH spot ETFs netting over $700 million combined, providing solid buying support for this rally.
However, the market is currently very divided: is this just a short-term squeeze-driven pulse, or is it a genuine capital return marking the start of a new trend?
Here’s my view:
This rally is supported by ETF funds, not just leverage-driven, so the foundation is better than a typical short squeeze. But risks cannot be ignored; if volume doesn’t keep up and stablecoin liquidity falters, many profit-taking positions at high levels could cash out and exit at any time. Plus, with leverage accumulating again, volatility could be further amplified.
Don’t blindly chase the rally just because of the big rise. Whether the trend can sustain depends mainly on whether funds can continue to take over. If buying momentum is insufficient, a strong correction could follow.
This is just my personal review and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC $ETH 这次不是“快突破”，是直接打穿了。 $BTC 今天最高已经来到 $75,700附近，成功突破前面反复压制多头的关键区域，过去4天累计上涨接近20%。这是BTC自今年2月以来首次重新站上$75K附近。 而我觉得真正值得关注的，不是这个数字本身，而是突破的过程。 $62K–66K长期震荡 → 多头反复试探 → $66.6K突破 → $70K突破 → $72K突破 → $75K–76K彻底突破 这已经不是简单的超跌反弹了。 更关键的是，前面推动行情的几个因素并没有消失： ETF资金回流 → 美国现货BTC ETF单日净流入超过 $5.17亿 → 机构资金重新进场 → BTC获得现货买盘支撑。 同时还有： 美国财政部扩大长期美债回购 → 长端收益率压力缓解 → 市场流动性预期改善 → 黄金、BTC等硬资产同时走强。 再加上前面的： BTC突破关键阻力 → 空头开始止损 → 大量空单被强平 → 被迫买回BTC → 价格继续上涨 这就是为什么这几天会出现这么暴力的加速。 但现在最重要的问题已经变了。 之前大家问： “BTC能不能突破$70K？” 现在这个问题已经结束。 接下来要问的是： “$76K比特币市场有一个非常有意思的现象。 同一个价格，可以让市场从极度看空迅速切换到极度看多。 而真正危险的，往往不是市场看空的时候，而是市场刚刚完成这种情绪切换的时候。 这轮行情就是如此。 此前BTC长期在6万—7万美元附近震荡，市场情绪明显偏弱。 随后BTC突然突破关键区间。 8月20日，BTC突破7万美元，同时加密市场出现约30亿美元空头清算；到8月21日，两日空头清算规模进一步达到约38亿美元。 这意味着大量看空资金已经被迫离场。 从短期角度看，这是利好。 因为卖压下降了。 但从另外一个角度看，它也意味着市场正在进入一个新的阶段。 空头已经没有那么多了。 那么接下来谁会成为市场的主要参与者？ 答案很可能是多头。 问题也就随之而来： 多头是不是已经开始拥挤？ 8月21日BTC一度突破7.55万美元，市场关注度明显升温。 而8月19日现货BTC ETF又出现约5.172亿美元净流入，说明机构资金确实出现了积极变化。 这两个信号放在一起看，其实非常有意思。 一方面，确实有新的资金进场。 另一方面，价格上涨又会吸引更多短线资金追涨。 于是市场可能形成新的循环： BTC上涨——媒体关注——散户BTC最近的行情有一个非常明显的特点： 涨得太快。 8月20日突破7万美元之后，价格迅速向上扩张，8月21日一度突破7.55万美元。 从交易角度看，这当然非常强。 但从市场结构来看，快速上涨本身也是一种风险。 为什么？ 因为价格上涨越快，短期获利盘积累得越快。 假设一个投资者在6.5万美元附近买入BTC，现在价格已经来到7.5万美元附近，他自然会开始考虑一个问题： “我要不要兑现利润？” 这就是市场里最基本的供需关系。 早期买家想卖。 新的资金想买。 如果新的资金足够强，那么卖盘可以被不断吸收。 如果新的资金不足，那么价格就会开始横盘甚至回落。 所以真正决定BTC能不能继续上涨的，不是7.5万美元这个数字本身，而是： 这个价格附近有没有足够的新买家。 目前市场确实出现了一些积极信号。 8月19日美国现货BTC ETF净流入约5.172亿美元，显示机构资金需求明显改善。 同时，8月20日至21日的大规模空头清算又给市场提供了额外的上涨动力，两日空头清算总额约38亿美元。 也就是说，这轮行情实际上同时拥有两种买盘： 第一种是被迫买入的空头。 第二种是主动进入的现货和ETF资金。 问题在于，过去几年，比特币最大的变化其实不是价格，而是资金进入市场的方式发生了变化。 以前买BTC，更多是交易所、钱包和加密原生资金。 现在，越来越多传统资金可以通过ETF获得BTC敞口。 这意味着BTC已经不再只是一个加密圈内部的交易品种，而开始进入传统资产配置体系。 所以这轮上涨，真正值得关注的一个指标，就是美国现货BTC ETF。 8月19日，美国现货BTC ETF单日净流入达到约5.172亿美元。其中，BlackRock旗下IBIT流入约2.847亿美元，Fidelity、ARK 21Shares等产品也出现资金流入。 这个数字为什么重要？ 因为它和空头清算完全是两回事。 空头平仓是被迫买入。 ETF净流入更接近主动配置。 这意味着，如果BTC价格上涨的同时，ETF持续吸收资金，那么市场就可能形成一个非常重要的正反馈。 BTC上涨。 机构资产净值增加。 市场关注度提升。 更多资金配置ETF。 ETF需要吸收BTC。 现货需求增加。 BTC继续上涨。 这就是典型的资金反身性。 但问题也在这里。 一天的资金流入，不能直接证明机构已经全面回归。 因为机构资金和散户最大的区别，就是它们更看重持续The vertical growth dividend window for $SNDK has long been completely closed.
From the point it reached its historical valuation peak, the current cumulative drawdown has already exceeded 99%. Continuous large token unlocks keep releasing selling pressure, combined with the cascading liquidation effects across the entire market, firmly capping every rebound's upward peak in a low range, leaving almost no arbitrage opportunities.
Even though $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR—peer projects in the same sector—have ridden the wave of newly released liquidity in this market cycle to achieve strong structural recovery rallies, $SNDK alone continues to decline steadily, with its valuation sliding down a channel that seems endless. Looking at the crypto market's trading cycles over the long term, all artificially inflated bubbles driven by short-term sentiment will ultimately be completely burst by real supply and demand dynamics, with no exceptions. $SNDK #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX 如果只看BTC的K线，这几天的行情非常简单： 突破、加速、再突破。 但如果把价格背后的资金结构拆开，就会发现，这不是一场普通的上涨。 8月20日，BTC突破7万美元之后，加密市场出现了规模极大的空头清算。数据显示，24小时空头清算规模达到约30亿美元，而多头清算规模明显低得多；到8月21日，两日累计空头清算已经接近38亿美元。 这意味着市场经历了一次非常典型的“空头踩踏”。 为什么空头会踩踏？ 因为此前BTC在6.2万—6.69万美元附近震荡了很长时间。 横盘时间越长，市场越容易积累大量方向性仓位。 当一部分投资者判断BTC无法突破，于是开始做空。 但当价格突然突破此前的震荡区间之后，事情开始发生变化。 第一个空头止损。 第二个空头爆仓。 第三个空头发现行情不对，主动回补。 这些行为本质上都需要买入BTC。 于是市场出现一个非常奇怪的现象： 越多人认为BTC涨不动，反而越容易在突破之后形成更强的上涨。 因为空头本身变成了潜在买盘。 这就是为什么本轮上涨速度非常快。 但这里也存在一个最大的误区。 很多人会认为： “既然已经清算了30多亿美元空头，那么BTC后面肯定更容易涨。” 其实恰恰相The market has been quite interesting these days: a few days ago, everyone was still debating whether BTC would continue to consolidate at the bottom, but today BTC directly surged to a new phase high. Next week, a core question must be answered: after this short squeeze, can incremental funds keep fueling the rally?
At first glance, this BTC rally looks very strong, but on a second look, I'm a bit hesitant to blindly jump in.
The price has surged again after more than two months, with large-scale liquidations of shorts. The short-term explosive power is visible to the naked eye, but most of the upward momentum in the market comes from forced closures of leveraged short positions.
The index is still rising, but new spot buying has slowed down. The market can no longer be judged solely by how many points it has gained; we also need to watch the sustainability of ETF funds, on-chain spot turnover, and the speed of incremental off-exchange inflows.
The most critical change is that the old hot meme coins have collectively cooled down, while the popularity of new MEME tokens has multiplied several times.
The good news is that the market's main theme is not tied to a single coin, and sector rotation continues to activate, proving that the intensity of capital competition in the market has indeed increased; but the bad news is that many old hot funds are continuously withdrawing, and stock-based competition remains the market's underlying tone.
So I think the market is not over yet; it is transitioning from a "short squeeze rally" into a "realization test": whether bullish funds can keep passing the baton, whether off-exchange incremental funds can accelerate again, and whether fundamental positives can keep pace with the market.
One is driven by leveraged sentiment, the other supported by narrative expectations, but in front of such high heat, they all have to answer the same question: after the story is played out, can the funds continue to realize gains? #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH 比特币这轮上涨，最容易让市场犯的错误，是看到价格快速拉升，就直接把它理解成“新一轮牛市启动”。 但如果把行情拆开看，会发现真正值得关注的问题并不是BTC已经涨了多少，而是一个更加现实的问题： 接下来，还有没有新的资金愿意用更高的价格买进去？ 这是判断这轮行情能不能继续的核心。 8月20日，BTC突破7万美元，随后继续向上扩张。与此同时，加密市场出现了规模巨大的空头清算。数据显示，仅24小时空头清算就达到约30亿美元，其中BTC自身占据相当大的比例；到8月21日，两日累计空头清算规模已经达到约38亿美元。 这说明本轮上涨的前半段，有一个非常明显的推动因素： 空头被迫买回来。 很多人看到BTC上涨，会认为市场突然出现了几十亿美元的新增资金。实际上并不完全是这样。 空头平仓，本质上也是买入BTC。 当价格突破关键位置后，原本做空的人出现亏损，一部分仓位触发止损，另一部分仓位因为保证金不足被强制平仓。价格越上涨，空头压力越大；空头越平仓，价格又越容易继续上涨。 于是形成一个非常典型的正反馈： 价格上涨——空头止损——强制买入——价格继续上涨——更多空头被清算。 这就是所谓的“逼空”。 问题是，*Bitcoin $BTC Latest Update August 21, 2026 23:30*
*1. Price & Key Data*
**Dimension** **Current Status** **Description**
**Current Price** $74,800 - $75,200 Intraday high $75,785, 24h +7.5%
**Weekly Increase** +20.5% Violent surge from $64,000, strongest single week in 2026
**Liquidation Data** 24h approx. $1.087 billion 127,000 liquidated, 85% shorts, epic short squeeze
**Market Cap** Approx. $1.48 trillion Back to high levels, significant capital inflow
*2. Three Core Reasons for This Surge*
1. *Short Squeeze*: $64K–$65K filled with short stop losses. After breaking 68K, cascading liquidations pushed price up, triggering more liquidations
2. *Macro Turns Dovish*: August CPI hits new low + Nonfarm payrolls turn negative. Market bets on 70% chance of rate cut in September, risk assets rally broadly
3. *ETF + Options + Sentiment Resonance*: US session ETF net inflows + 70K/72K call options stacking $5 billion + “100K in half a month” FOMO sentiment
*3. Key Levels Ahead*
- *Upside*: After holding the new high of $75,785, next targets $76,000 → $78,000
- *Downside Support*: 一周前情绪指数还是 29 恐慌 现在 70 出头 贪婪 这不是行情图 这是恋爱脑的心电图 导火索是 Clarity Act 特朗普推着国会往前走 就是那部要定清楚加密资产到底算证券还是商品的法案 消息一出比特币当日涨 7.6% 站上 74600 美元 日内一度触及 75500 全市场总市值回到 2.56 万亿 24 小时成交 1287 亿 以上均为 8 月 20 至 21 日数据 先说我的判断 这一波涨的不是价格 是确定性 过去几年这个行业最贵的成本从来不是 gas 费 是不知道明天的规则长什么样 项目方不敢建 机构不敢配 律师函比产品更新还快 现在监管终于肯把话说明白 哪怕答案你不喜欢 也比一直暧昧强 这事特别像谈恋爱 最耗人的从来不是分手 是那种半年不表态还每天给你点赞的 你的时间成本全砸在猜里 一旦对方明确说了在一起或者算了 你反而能安排自己的生活 所以我更关心法案能不能真落地 而不是这三天涨了多少 顺便提醒一句 情绪从 29 到 70 只用一周 这个速度本身就是风险 恐慌区捡筹码的人现在浮盈 贪婪区追进去的人在赌下一个利好 而利好这种东西 通常在兑现那天开始变成利空 我自己的做Here are some data points for everyone to judge the market outlook:
1. Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $517 million yesterday, hitting a three-and-a-half-month high, real money flowing in.
2. In the past 3 days, over $4 billion in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with an estimated half belonging to Bitcoin, over $2 billion.
3. In other words, with less than $3 billion in buying, the coin price rose from 64k to 76k.
3. Looking at Coinbase's premium chart, the first wave of the rally was an increase driven by real money from Americans, accompanied by a massive short squeeze on the first day. Judging from the subsequent sharp drop in premium, it might have been a wash trade, but the price was supported by spot and futures. The reason is that despite massive liquidations, the futures open interest did not decrease significantly, indicating some funds stepped in, and ETF inflows started to increase significantly. Then at the overnight US stock market open, another wave of real money came in. The open interest did not increase much, indicating the US spot market still dominated, so the risk remains low. Now during Asian trading hours, the discount is widening and futures open interest is increasing somewhat, indicating some are starting to leverage long positions, and risk is beginning to accumulate.
In summary, Trump's policies plus pressure from long-term bond yields have driven this Bitcoin rally. Rapid increases will gather short-term risk. Those who missed out need not worry, and holders need not panic. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
After reviewing the latest financial report of POPMART, it is clear that the company is in a phase of transition between old and new.
Domestic market growth of 47.3% is the main source of growth. In contrast, overseas revenues in Asia-Pacific and the Americas declined by 9.7% and 16.5% respectively, with overseas business development falling short of expectations.
The gap on the IP side is also evident: LABUBU revenue dropped 7.5%, while Star People revenue surged nearly sixfold, becoming the company's second largest IP.
In my view, the explosive popularity of Star People is a good sign, proving that the brand can incubate new leading IPs and take an important step to break away from reliance on a single IP. However, Star People represents a short-term heat burst; the lifecycle of trendy toys is generally limited, and whether it can maintain traffic going forward remains uncertain.
At the same time, the decline in overseas business exposes the brand's challenges in expanding into overseas markets.
Although the domestic market provides strong support, to go further, the company must not only maintain its local advantages but also solve the difficulties of going abroad and continuously produce IPs with vitality. Whether the multi-IP matrix can truly succeed in the future is worth ongoing attention.
Just a personal opinion.
$POPMART
@OKX成长学院 BTC spot ETFs are attracting funds again, so which holding method is the capital choosing?
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $517.2 million on August 20, the largest single-day inflow since May 4; the net inflow this week is about $1 billion. During the same period, the spot ETH ETF had a single-day net inflow of $189.2 million.
This data does not equate to a vote on the next price move, but it clearly shows that some capital prefers BTC exposure within securities accounts: trading, custody, reporting, and asset allocation all remain within a familiar system.
This is a different experience from self-custody. Buying an ETF does not allow you to move shares on-chain, nor use them for transfers, staking, or participation in on-chain applications; holding native BTC requires managing wallets, transaction fees, and private key risks yourself. When looking at ETF capital flows, what is truly chosen is often not a "better BTC," but a holding method better suited to traditional accounts. Trump's single statement "discussed buying Bitcoin" caused the market to explode. BTC surged overnight from 65,000 to 70,000, and ETH rose nearly 20%.
But what was truly overlooked was another matter: the probability of the bill passing has been downgraded by Galaxy Digital from 30% to 10%. In three months, it dropped from 75% to 10%.
Trump's speech was indeed powerful. He said he wants to "completely end the war on crypto," make the U.S. the "world crypto capital," and mentioned strategic Bitcoin reserves, banning CBDCs, and the SEC pushing Hyperliquid compliance entry into the U.S. Each point sounds like great news, but on closer look, all are "discussed," "planned," or "in progress"—none have actually been implemented.
The bill's procedural vote starts on September 15 and requires 60 votes. It is currently stuck on three issues: official ethics clauses, stablecoin yield disputes, and developer liability protections—none resolved. Polymarket gives the passing probability only 17%-19%, Galaxy directly at 10%.
When asked about specific purchase plans at the summit, Trump only said he "would consider the advice of the SEC chairman and other officials." No plans, no timeline, no budget authorization.
The market is trading on "what Trump said," but policy implementation requires Congress. If the CLARITY vote on September 15 fails, this 70,000 level may be the peak for this phase.
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC After the $COHR earnings report, the stock price rapidly corrected 17% from $343 to around $290, with the core conflict centered on the price chip game between the strong 1.6T mass production guidance and the short-term valuation overheating.
From the price structure perspective, $290 has already absorbed 17% of the previous $343 high premium, and the lower support range is being retested. If $290 holds steady, the better-than-expected Q4 revenue of $2.05B and EPS of $1.74 will form structural support for the bottom price.
The driving forces behind the price correction are, in order: profit-taking at high levels, market repricing of AI spending pace, and re-verification of upstream capacity fulfillment speed. Upstream AXTI's InP revenue increased 165% year-over-year to $30.7M, and Lumentum's revenue reached $1.01B, validating continued prosperity in materials and devices.
The bullish scenario requires the price to hold the $290 support and break through the $330-$340 resistance zone. The trigger condition is next quarter's guidance pushing toward the $2.2-$2.4B upper limit and accelerated 1.6T mass production. After the breakout, the upside space will point to the institutional median target price of $448 and the $500 high.
The bearish scenario is a break below the key $290 support level. The trigger signal would be a slowdown in data center AI capital expenditure growth or underperformance in 1.6T capacity release, leading the price to seek deeper support levels and prolonging the valuation reset period.
The failure points of the trading structure are set at both ends: if the $290 support is completely broken, the previous repair logic based on earnings double-click will temporarily fail; if it climbs back above $340, it confirms that this round of correction is merely a price cleansing due to valuation overheating.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing the changes in trading volume and chip holding performance at the $290 support level.
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #沃尔玛在美销售放缓，消费压力受关注Elon Musk wants to do everything right now
The biggest expense in $SPCX's current layout is AI investment
But the AI investment is currently at a loss on the books and not yet profitable
If Claude OpenAI enters the scene at this time
Then there will be many options for investing in AI; SPCX is not the only one
SPCX's IPO is defined as a space exploration company, which is fine
Now Musk wants to consolidate everything under SPCX
He wants more people to be tied to the flagship, but consolidation is still consolidation
You either do one thing well so your market cap bubble isn't too big
Now most of the money is invested in AI, and SPCX just launches rockets without upgrades
People aren't fools; new projects definitely have more profit opportunities
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #BTC is accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
It's at 75000 now, retail investors still haven't woken up.
This morning when I opened OKX, $BTC was already hanging above 75000. The last time I saw this number was almost a year ago.
The whole network liquidated 3 billion. Shorts were completely wiped out.
But I checked the chat records of several trading groups and found an interesting phenomenon—last night during the pump, the fastest people spamming the group were still the old faces who repeatedly bottom-fished and cut losses around 60000. They shouted the loudest, but their positions were already lost halfway.
The truly silent ones are those who, after being shaken out three or four times, dare not move anymore.
The price really went up, but the first reaction is not "I should be making money," but "Is this another scam?" Retail investors' fear of missing out is even more silent than losses.
I also didn't go full position, only pushed 60%. The lesson from last year when the 65000 short was shaken out still remains—getting the direction right is useless if you pick the wrong timing, you still get swept out.
So who is actually making money?
On August 19, the combined net inflow of US BTC and $ETH spot ETFs was 706 million USD, with BTC accounting for 517 million. Continuous inflows, not a small amount.
But what concerns me more is data from a market maker friend. They monitored several long-dormant addresses recently starting to move, all old miners who built positions from 2015 to 2017, with holding costs between 200 and 500 USD. These people usually don't move, only acting when the market is extremely fearful or extremely euphoric.
They are not here to chase 75000, they are here to sell.
ETF money is coming in, old miners are selling out. Both sides are doing their own thing, exchanging hands. Retail investors are waiting for confirmation, only rushing in after confirmation.
Whoever can hold on is strong. Whether they can hold on or not, we will see on-chain in the next week—if those old addresses keep moving, it means the handover isn't over; if they stop, that's when real buying enters.
It's 75000 now, but the real game is still on-chain.*Bitcoin $BTC Latest Update August 21, 2026 Evening*
*1. Price & Data*
**Dimension** **Current Status** **Description**
**Current Price** $74,500 - $75,500 Intraday high $75,785, 24h +7.6%
**Weekly Increase** +20%+ Violent surge from $64,000, strongest single week this year
**Liquidation Data** 24h about $1.087 billion 127,000 liquidated, epic short squeeze
**Market Cap** About $1.48 trillion Significant rebound from last week's $1.2 trillion
*2. Three Reasons for This Surge*
1. *Short squeeze + liquidity*: $64K–$65K filled with short stop losses. After breaking 68K, chain liquidations pushed price up, which triggered more liquidations
2. *Macro turns dovish*: CPI hits 2021 low + nonfarm payroll turns negative. Market bets 70% chance of rate cut in September, funds flow back into risk assets
3. *ETF + sentiment*: US session ETF net inflow + 70k/72k call options accumulation. KOLs start shouting “100k in half a month”
*3. Key Levels Ahead*
- *Resistance above*: $75,785 new high → next target $76,000 - $78,000
- *Support below*: moved up to *$72,000 - $73,000* The vertical growth dividend period of $SNDK has long since completely ended.
Since the day it reached its all-time high valuation, the cumulative drawdown has now exceeded 99%. Intensive large token unlocks keep flooding the market, combined with the chain reaction of liquidations across the entire market, which directly welds the top of every rebound at a low level, leaving hardly any arbitrage space.
Even $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR, these benchmark projects in the same sector, have taken advantage of this newly released liquidity to produce a strong structural rebound, but $SNDK alone is still slowly declining, with its valuation continuously dropping with no end in sight. Looking at a longer timeframe, all the inflated bubbles in the crypto market that rely on short-term sentiment will eventually be punctured by real supply and demand, and no one can escape. $SNDK #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 $BTC Bitcoin's sudden surge is not driven by a single piece of news, but by the combined force of three factors🚨
This round of BTC's continuous rally is not triggered by a single positive catalyst, but by the resonance and superposition of three forces: macro liquidity, policy expectations, and contract short squeeze. Multiple conditions coincidentally align within the same time window, resulting in this violent upward movement.
First force: Shift in U.S. Treasury liquidity, macro environment opens valuation ceiling
The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchase operations, causing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to rapidly decline, the dollar to weaken, and market trading liquidity expectations to improve.
Bitcoin is highly sensitive to real interest rates; with risk-free yields falling, capital is willing to assign higher valuations to risk assets.
This forms the fundamental soil for this rally, clearing the macro environment first to lay the foundation for the subsequent surge. Not only BTC, but major assets like gold are also simultaneously boosted.
Second force: Rising expectations for U.S. crypto policy, institutional risk appetite recovery
The White House held a closed-door crypto summit, Trump publicly pushed for the CLARITY Act to be enacted, and the SEC simultaneously released new regulatory proposals, signaling progress toward industry compliance.
The market began pricing in lower institutional capital entry barriers going forward.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a long-awaited large net inflow, with traditional investment banks like Morgan Stanley continuously increasing holdings. Real spot buying genuinely entered the market, providing a spot base for the market, not just contract speculation.
Note: This is currently still in the policy expectation phase; the bill is still being debated in Congress and has not been officially enacted, so there is a risk of expectations not being met.
Third force: Large-scale short squeeze in the contract market amplifies the upward move
During the previous consolidation phase, a large number of short positions accumulated. After the price broke through key resistance, many shorts triggered forced liquidations.
Short sellers stopping losses and exiting equals passive buying, creating a positive feedback loop of "price rise → short squeeze → continued rise." Tens of billions worth of short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, further amplifying the rally. This acts as an amplifier of the move, not the origin.
Objectively viewing the relationship among the three:
- Macro is the foundation, determining whether it can rise;
- Policy expectations are the fuse, igniting market sentiment;
- Short squeeze is the amplifier, making the rise more intense.
Short squeeze rallies have strong explosive power, but sustainability depends on what follows: whether spot ETF funds can continue to flow in, whether the bill progresses smoothly, and whether U.S. Treasury yields rebound again.
If subsequent spot buying cannot keep up, a rally driven solely by short squeeze will also face significant pullback risk. Bitcoin has been continuously hitting new highs; is the bull market really returning quickly??
Bitcoin has consecutively refreshed new highs for over two months, with a short squeeze rally running vigorously. The whole network is shouting "bull market returning quickly," but a strong short squeeze does not mean the bull market has officially started.
The main driver of this round of rise is an epic short squeeze, with over $3 billion in short positions liquidated in the past 24 hours. Forced buybacks from margin calls have aggressively pushed the market up, representing a short-term explosive move driven by leveraged funds. Of course, there are underlying bullish fundamentals supporting this: rising expectations of friendly US regulation, liquidity released from US Treasury repos, and continuous net inflows into BTC spot ETFs, providing emotional and capital foundations for the market.
To distinguish between a rebound and a true bull market, two core factors must be considered: first, after the short-term short squeeze, whether there can be a continuous influx of incremental spot funds from outside the market, as the sustainability of a rise purely from short covering is limited; second, the diffusion of hotspots. Currently, it is still rapid rotation of existing funds, with MEME hotspots being speculated one after another, previous speculative coins falling quickly, and sector rotation extremely fast. There has not yet been a broad market-wide rally or the bull market characteristic of a frenzy of new capital entering.
At present, the fear and greed index has already entered the greed zone, short-term indicators are deeply overbought, market sentiment is heating up rapidly, and the risk of chasing highs is accumulating. The short-term trend is strong, but do not blindly shout that the bull market is returning quickly. To confirm the official return of the bull market, it is still necessary to observe: whether ETF funds can continue stable inflows for multiple days, the strength of support during market pullbacks, and signals of sustained implementation of macro policies.
$BTC $ETH
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice.Who is really igniting this Bitcoin surge?
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market seemed to be set on fire. Bitcoin surged straight from around 64,000 to break through 70,000, Ethereum approached 2,300, rising nearly 19% in 24 hours. 180,000 people were liquidated, with $3.2 billion in positions wiped out in one wave.
Who is igniting it? It’s not a single positive factor, but three events overlapping and resonating together.
The U.S. Treasury personally stepped in. On August 19, it announced doubling the repurchase scale of 10 to 30-year Treasury bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield plunged sharply from 5.337% to around 5.19%, and gold surged $125 in a single day. Bitcoin reacted even faster, jumping directly from 64,000 to 70,000. The signal conveyed is crucial — there is an implicit ceiling on long-term rates, the government will intervene to support the market, liquidity expectations improve, and Bitcoin is the most sensitive to this.
Trump publicly called the shot. The White House met with executives from Coinbase, Kraken, and other crypto companies, urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The top-level stance is clearly shifting. The head of research at Standard Chartered put it bluntly: increased Treasury support at the back end is exactly the signal Bitcoin wants to see, maintaining the year-end target of $100,000.
Short positions accumulated over six months were wiped out in one go. Bitcoin had been hovering around 60,000 for the past six months, with a large buildup of shorts. After breaking through a key resistance level, a short squeeze spiral started — the more it rose, the more it flattened; the more it flattened, the more it rose. $1.44 billion in shorts were liquidated within an hour.
The combination of these three events validates a transmission chain: fiscal policy signals → decline in long-term rates → risk asset revaluation → resonance between crypto spot and derivatives.
The next question is: can this leverage-driven sharp rise translate into sustained spot demand? If ETF inflows stabilize and Treasury yields continue to decline, this breakout is more likely to be confirmed as a trend change. Watching BTC and ETH rocket upwards these past two days, are you in front of the screen feeling like all the market gamblers are crazily leveraging up and ready to go all-in to the moon? Even seeing news like "Crypto perpetual open interest (OI) ratio back to 67%" makes your heart race, right?
Let's put it simply: If you have a gold bar that was worth 10,000 yesterday, and today the gold price doubles so the bar is worth 20,000, have you become richer? Nominally yes. But do you have more gold? No.
The current futures market is just like this. The nominal open interest (OI) rising to 67% sounds like new money is lining up to enter, but in reality, nearly 90% of the increase is because the coin price rose, making the existing positions "appear more expensive."
It's like the housing prices in your neighborhood doubling; it doesn't mean more people moved in, just that the land is worth more.
The most ironic data is here: after excluding the "inflation" caused by price increases, players on both sides are actually deleveraging.
* BTC: Despite a roughly 8.6% surge in the past 24 hours, the number of contracts actually decreased by 2,542 BTC (about 177 million USD).
* ETH: The rise was even more intense, soaring 18%, nominal value did increase by 310 million, but the actual new contracts added were only 1,475 ETH.
What does this mean? It means that at this price level, veterans are not opening new positions chasing the rally; instead, they are quickly closing positions to lock in profits during the big surge #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？
Is Unitree Technology's IPO the peak? The funding rate made my hand tremble a bit
I just glanced at the perpetual contract funding rate for UNITREEUSDT, -1%. This data is more than just "short squeeze"; it's almost a clear signal to the market about how many are betting it will fall back to its original state.
On the first day of A-share listing, it surged directly to 1100 yuan, with a market cap briefly exceeding 440 billion yuan, closing at 845 yuan. A single lot yielded a floating profit of 470,000 yuan, making it arguably the most ruthless wealth machine of 2026. But the next day it dropped back to 687 yuan, with a market cap evaporating over 160 billion yuan in one day, falling from peak to ankle in two days. Quoting a former chief economist of a securities firm, when the free float is only 7.44%, the pricing reflects scarcity premium, not true value.
Here, with contracts available to short and a funding rate hitting -1%, it means shorts can eat up a large chunk of profits just from holding costs each month. How is this different from giving it away? You better think carefully before placing an order—are you planning to take this negative funding rate bite, or waiting for a sudden rebound to get squeezed?
It's not that the company is bad. Unitree sold 5,500 humanoid robots in 2025, with revenue of 1.699 billion yuan, already one of the few profitable in the industry. But in the first half of 2026, net profit excluding non-recurring items dropped nearly 20% year-on-year. Founder Wang Xingxing himself publicly admitted that robot efficiency is only 30%-50% of a human's. The gap between the pre-IPO promises and post-IPO reality is a whole path of valuation reversion. BTC, the reality behind the 7% surge and the next inflection point. Can the announcement of unemployment claims change the market's leverage direction? The weekly initial unemployment claims announced by the U.S. Department of Labor came in at 206,000, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000. This was interpreted as a cooling signal for the labor market and revived expectations for a Fed rate cut in September, which led to short position liquidations in the BTC futures market. Short liquidations totaling $3.28 million occurred within 24 hours, and BTC surged 7.2% to reach $74,370. The intraday high was $74,866, and the low was $68,902. The market capitalization was revalued at $1.29 trillion. The key to this movement is the imbalance in positioning rather than the price itself. The fact that $70,000 turned into a support level is not just a simple technical breakout but indicates that short positions were concentrated at that price level and the liquidation volume accelerated the rise. Immediately after the unemployment claims announcement, BTC recovered $70,000 and pushed up to $74,800 within 24 hours, the path was pre我绝不会放弃$UNI和$AAVE——逢低买入，坚定持有直到牛市来临，目标至少50到100倍的回报。这是我这辈子翻身的最后机会，我必须管住手，管住手，再管住手。如果再次错过这个板上钉钉的机会，这辈子可能就真的完了。一定要稳住，别被熊市的恐慌吓跑！ 先说结论：这不是一条普通的喊单帖，而是一个散户投资者在极端市场情绪下的自我承诺。$UNI（Uniswap）和$AAVE（Aave）都是DeFi赛道的老牌龙头，前者是去中心化交易所的绝对霸主，后者则是借贷协议的标杆。两者在上一轮牛市中都有过数十倍的惊人表现，因此当价格从高点大幅回撤时，部分坚定持有者会将此视为“黄金坑”而非“下跌中继”。 从市场逻辑看，这类资产的长期价值锚定在链上真实使用量上。UNI的现货交易量和AAVE的借贷总额依然是行业风向标，只要DeFi生态持续扩张，头部协议的基本面就有支撑。但“50到100倍”的预期显然属于极端乐观情景，它隐含的前提是市场经历一轮堪比2020-2021年的超级周期，且这两个代币能跑赢绝大多数同类资产。这个假设并非不可能，但绝不是确定性事件。 风险同样不容忽视。当前宏观环境仍受利率政策和监管不确定性压制，DThis market phase is not about chasing the rally; it's a game of brinkmanship after a short squeeze. You might think a breakout is the end point, but the real battlefield lies in the liquidation charts. Bitcoin just surged past $72,400, with over $3 billion liquidated across the network within 24 hours—this is the largest short liquidation event in crypto history. A single bullish candle on BTC has completely wiped out short positions. But what's even more noteworthy is the 90-day liquidation heatmap: - Short orders remaining only $5 billion - Long positions stacked up to $23 billion - The long-to-short ratio is close to 4.6 to 1, and the dense liquidation zone for longs is all below $55,000 In other words, the current market has very little short fuel left to burn on the upside, but there's a whole "minefield" of long positions buried below. If the price pulls back, those leveraged longs at lower levels will act as an accelerator for a waterfall decline. ETH breaking through $2,000 is no longer a quiet probe. The speed and volume of this rally indicate the market is rapidly repricing this asset. The real test lies between $2,100 and $2,120; if it holds above this range, the overall structure remains bullish; if rejected, the focus will likely fall back to around $2,075 to $2,090 to regroup. My own feeling is that the most dangerous sentiment at this stage is not panic, but the complacency of "finally seeing a breakout." The crowd starts talking about the bull market returning, but precisely this consensus makes the market fragile. The bullish logic is clear: shorts have been cleared, selling pressure is reduced in the short term, and with ETH catching up, market risk appetite is indeed warming up The logic behind Bitcoin's rise has been clearly sorted out
1. The Treasury Department announced the repurchase of U.S. debt as the trigger
2. There has been little liquidity, with many short positions, causing a short squeeze with 5x leverage
3. Funds that were speculating on storage have withdrawn and found a new target to speculate onThe latest spot gold price remains stable around $4520-$4535/oz trading
Gold has now entered a typical intense tug-of-war phase at high levels
The main support for gold prices is clear: global credit currency depreciation expectations, geopolitical safe-haven demand, and long-term central bank gold purchases. However, behind the intensified institutional divergence is a loosening of short-term chip structure
UBS is bullish up to $5000, betting on long-term macro decoupling and rate cuts. The cautious camp worries that if US Treasury yields rebound or risk appetite recovers, the selling pressure from profit-taking at high levels will be very strong
✍️ Next trend forecast
Short term 1-3 months
Mainly wide-range oscillation and consolidation, there is strong resistance to a direct reckless surge above $4500, with a high probability of repeatedly clearing high-level profit chips within the $4350-$4550 range
Medium to long term 1-2 years
The trend center of gravity remains upward, as long as global debt expansion and the long-term decentralized backdrop remain unchanged, deep dips will instead bring better allocation opportunities
Those without positions should not chase the rally at current highs; waiting for a range pullback and stabilization is safer. Those holding low-level chips should hold core base positions and moderately lock in some profits
DYOR
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 USD1未必需要在每一笔交易里击败USDT。 它真正需要做的，是成为交易员账户里随时准备出手的那部分稳定币流动性。 最新动作已经很有意思：Aster上线了首批以USD1计价并结算的RWA永续合约，覆盖SpaceX、黄金、原油、SanDisk和SK Hynix，并配套约2800万美元的流动性支持。 更值得关注的是，USD1的故事正在从“稳定币”逐渐变成“交易结算层”。 8月14日，美国OCC还对World Liberty Trust的国家信托银行牌照申请给出了有条件的初步批准，这意味着USD1未来可能获得更强的合规与机构基础。 这才是我真正关注的地方👇 USDT之所以难以被替代，并不只是因为规模大，而是因为交易习惯已经形成。 交易员不会每次开仓前才临时买USDT——它通常早已躺在交易账户里，等待下一次机会。 如果USD1能够复制这种“默认流动性”的习惯，那么它真正挑战的就不是某一个交易对，而是稳定币在链上交易中的基础设施地位。 SpaceX只是入口。 真正的战场，是谁能成为下一代链上交易的“现金余额”。 #USD1 #Aster #Stablecoin #Crypto #DeFi #RSanDisk's high volatility indicates that storage stocks are no longer traded based on fundamentals.
It's faith, leverage, and valuation fighting for control.
A few days ago, the market was still chasing long-term agreements, AI data center demand, and high gross margin targets, but then storage stocks experienced severe divergence again. Names like SanDisk and Micron have shifted from cyclical stocks to part of the AI infrastructure narrative, but the problem arises: once included in the AI basket, valuations get pushed far out, and volatility is amplified.
I think the biggest caution here is that "good companies can also see valuation cuts."
Storage demand is indeed strong; NAND, SSD, and HBM all benefit from AI capital expenditures. But if capital positions are too crowded, the story is overhyped, and short-term profits are already priced in, even a slight cooldown can cause major volatility.
The current divergence in storage stocks is not about whether demand exists.
It's about whether the market is willing to pre-spend years ahead.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
What does this have to do with the crypto world? Three layers.
First layer, money is being drained. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic together are looking to raise over $200 billion in the public market. Crypto, as a highly volatile asset, will find it hard to get a big share before this AI IPO frenzy ends.
Second layer, narratives are linked. If Anthropic really goes public with a $2 trillion valuation, the entire AI sector's ceiling will be pushed up, and the valuation logic of AI projects in crypto with real business support will be pulled higher accordingly. But conversely, if valuation overreach causes the market to start doubting AI's profitability, the risk will spread to the entire tech sector, and crypto won't escape.
Third layer, computing power itself is being re-priced. With $65 billion in annualized revenue and a $2 trillion valuation, Wall Street's pricing of computing power already far exceeds any traditional industry. When computing power itself becomes an asset that can be priced, financed, and securitized, Bitcoin, as the most original expression of computing power, will only see its long-term ceiling raised.
In the short term, the AI giants' cluster IPOs squeeze liquidity in the crypto market, causing Bitcoin to fluctuate between 73,000 and 75,000, which is related to this. But looking longer term, when global capital starts allocating computing power as a core asset, Bitcoin's valuation ceiling will be systemically lifted.
The more money AI burns, the more expensive computing power becomes, and Bitcoin loses less.
What do you think?
$ETH $BTC 一、本次大涨核心导火索（4个关键原因） 1. 美国政策暖风（最大利好） 特朗普公开支持加密行业、敦促国会加速推进《CLARITY Act》，明确要规范化、合法化数字资产监管，彻底缓解市场长期最大的利空：监管不确定性。同时美国放行海外平台合规入驻，市场信心快速修复。 2. 宏观流动性回暖 美债收益率下行，市场资金风险偏好提升，高风险资产迎来估值修复窗口，为币圈反弹提供宏观支撑。 3. 极致空头挤压（涨幅放大核心） 长期横盘积累大量空单，利好落地价格突破关键位后，空单集中爆仓、被动买盘抬升价格，越涨越平、越平越涨，短时间几十亿空头清算，直接拉出暴力反弹。 4. 赛道资金轮动 AI赛道资金过热溢出，低位蛰伏许久的加密主流币，成为资金最佳洼地选择，增量资金快速回流BTC、ETH、SOL、XRP等主流币种。 二、后市走向极简判断 短期 情绪彻底回暖、多头动能充足，回调就是修复，不是走弱。但连续急涨后获利盘堆积，会进入高位震荡洗盘，不会无脑单边暴涨，震荡反复是常态。 中期 本轮行情属于政策预期修复+技术性逼空行情，不算彻底开启超级大牛市。 后续能否走持续趋势，只看两点： 1. 美国加密法案是否真实$BTC 的中期结构正在发生变化。 此前比特币曾连续约 233天运行在200日均线下方，而截至最新行情，价格已经重新突破这一长期趋势指标。数据显示，BTC近期一度上探 $72,800附近，200日均线也从此前约 $69,900区域逐渐成为市场关注的关键位置。 这意味着什么？ 如果 $BTC 能够持续站稳 $70K–$71K 上方，并在回踩时把这里转化为支撑，那么此前偏空的高周期结构将进一步被削弱。 同时，近期美国财政部扩大长期国债回购规模、特朗普再次推动《CLARITY Act》，也改善了市场对流动性与加密监管环境的预期，BTC因此快速反弹至 $72K以上。 但我不会因为一根大阳线就直接宣布新一轮超级牛市。 接下来真正重要的是： → $BTC 能否守住 $70K → $72K–$73K 能否变成新的支撑 → ETF资金能否持续回流 → 突破200D SMA后，是否出现有效的回踩确认 站上200日均线只是第一步。 真正的趋势反转，需要价格、资金和宏观环境同时确认。 📈 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #BitcoinETF #SamsungToFollowHynix #FOIs Bassett's rescue of U.S. Treasuries effective? The facts prove it is, but it still cannot truly save the U.S. Treasury crisis!
After the Treasury Department's policy announcement, yields on short-term, 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year long bonds all fell briefly, but the key point is that in the subsequent 20-year Treasury auction, signs of weak demand appeared.
On the day of Bassett's rescue, the actual winning yield for the 20-year Treasury auction was 5.204%, while the 20-year Treasury yield before the auction was 5.199%. This means the Treasury had to offer an additional 0.5 basis points to sell the long bonds.
This data clearly slapped Bassett in the face, indicating that his previous long bond rescue was only effective for short-term sentiment. However, investors do not trust the current duration yield and require the Treasury to offer higher yields to choose to buy.
At least this sign proves that Bassett's rescue had already become ineffective at that time!
Tonight Bassett continues to speak, mentioning several points that make me feel like he's trying to forcibly save face.
1. Emphasizes that the 30-year Treasury's liquidity is too poor, and the yield rise is not only due to inflation and economic growth issues.
2. The Treasury has a powerful set of government bond market tools; this mechanism can recall $4 billion more strongly and effectively (I have a sharper knife in hand).
3. The repurchase quota will not necessarily stop at $4 billion; the announcement clarified at least $4 billion, not fixed $4 billion, opening future expectations.
4. Emphasizes that part of the $4 billion's role is to "send a signal," conveying the Treasury's ability to respond to bond market risks.
5. Bassett does not deny the problems but begins to introduce fiscal consolidation policies to ease market concerns about the deficit.
6. Bassett describes subsequent yield increases as "noise."
Overall, Bassett's speech tonight is completely a forced attempt to save face after the rescue failure on the 20th, trying to continue stabilizing the market. But the market now does not want to hear what Bassett says; it wants to see what he does. Next, keep a close eye on the 30-year Treasury yield. If it hits 5.3% again, the market wants to see how Bassett responds!
What does Wall Street say?
After Bassett's rescue, it triggered more concerns on Wall Street. The mainstream view is that Bassett's rescue is more like "stopping the bleeding" rather than "curing the disease."
Because the U.S. bond market faces structural problems of fiscal deficits, high inflation, and term premiums, and $4 billion is obviously just a drop in the bucket to solve these issues.
More pessimistic views believe the bond market problem is not liquidity at all, and Bassett's move may cause greater bond market risks, greatly reducing confidence.
A minority believes Bassett's fiscal intervention has already invaded the FED's policy space, causing complex effects and making the already complicated fiscal policy even more complex and risky.
My perspective on the direct risk!
Today's bond market performance clearly shows market funds are "voting," and my biggest worry is that the market treats Bassett's intervention as an arbitrage tool—Bassett intervenes → U.S. Treasuries rise short-term → bondholders sell accordingly → wait for a lower price to sell at a premium.
If the market really reacts this way, the risk of U.S. Treasuries will greatly increase! $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
From August 19 to 21, Bitcoin experienced a long-awaited violent surge. Starting near $64,000, it broke through the $70,000 and $75,000 marks, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 11% at one point, reaching a nearly three-month high since June. Accompanying this rally was a record $3.264 billion in liquidations—over 180,000 people worldwide were liquidated, with more than 90% being short positions.
After a big bullish candle, the market's main concern is one question: can the capital continue to pass the baton?
1. How did this surge happen?
This rally is the result of multiple factors resonating together.
The most direct trigger was a short squeeze. Bitcoin had been consolidating around $60,000 for months, accumulating massive leveraged short positions in the derivatives market. When the price broke through a key liquidation-heavy zone, many shorts were forced to cover, creating a chain reaction of buying that further pushed prices up—a classic "short squeeze" positive feedback loop.
On the macro level, the unexpected "balance sheet expansion" by the U.S. Treasury was a core driver. On August 19, the Treasury announced raising the single long-term Treasury repo limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. Analysts called this a "mild version of quantitative easing," which suppressed long-term yields, weakened the dollar, and directly increased the appeal of risk assets like Bitcoin.
Positive signals also came from regulators. Trump met with executives from Coinbase and other crypto firms at the White House, urging Congress to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act). Meanwhile, the SEC proposed easing registration requirements for some digital assets.
The triple positive factors, combined with previously extremely bearish market positioning, jointly ignited this "epic" rebound.
2. Positive signals for capital continuation
1. Continuous inflow into ETFs
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs performed strongly in August. On August 18 alone, net inflows reached $189.3 million, with the previous trading day even higher at $297.6 million, totaling nearly $487 million over two days. As of August 18, cumulative net inflows in August reached about $951 million, far exceeding July's full-month $172.4 million. Since launching in January 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net inflows of approximately $52.28 billion, with total net assets of $79.3 billion.
2. Quiet positioning by institutions and whales
Morgan Stanley recently increased its holdings by about 320 BTC over two consecutive days through its spot Bitcoin ETF, bringing total holdings close to 7,000 BTC, valued at about $515 million. More notably, Bitcoin "whales" have increased holdings by about 43,000 BTC in the past 60 days, worth approximately $2.75 billion at current prices. Research firm Glassnode data shows all holder groups have resumed buying since late July.
3. On-chain demand signals warming up
CryptoQuant data shows combined 30-day demand for Bitcoin spot and futures reached 10,883 BTC, a new high since 2026. The apparent demand indicator broke above zero on August 18, reaching about 25,000 BTC, the first positive value in six months.
4. Long-term holder confidence remains solid
Long-term holders currently control 83% of Bitcoin, the highest since December 2023. Only 14% of Bitcoin holders have costs above $100,000, far below last October's 30%. Compass Point analysts note that every metric they track indicates Bitcoin is in the final stage of the crypto winter.
3. Concerns about capital continuation
1. Significant shrinkage in stablecoin liquidity
Centralized exchanges' stablecoin balances have dropped from a peak of about $80 billion at the end of 2025 to about $64 billion. Stablecoins are usually seen as "standby funds," so a decline in balances means immediate purchasing power is contracting. This signal contradicts the warming demand, indicating the market has not yet formed a consensus bullish outlook.
2. The surge mainly driven by short squeeze
The explosive rise in this rally largely stems from a short squeeze—a form of "passive buying," not "active long positions." Over $3 billion in shorts were liquidated within 24 hours. Once short covering is complete, whether sustained long capital will enter to continue the rally is the real test.
3. Macro environment remains uncertain
The July Fed meeting minutes showed 9 members favored keeping rates unchanged, 3 favored a hike. The market currently prices about a 35% chance of a September hike. Meanwhile, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5.3%, a high since 2007. If long-term rates continue rising, high-valuation risk assets will face valuation pressure.
4. The critical watershed is near
Technically, $70,000 is an important psychological level, and $76,000 is the average holding cost from the previous cycle. Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin could reach $76,000 or possibly fall back to $50,000. This precisely reveals the market's core contradiction: direction is certain, but the height is unknown.
Standard Chartered analysts predict Bitcoin may hit $100,000 by the end of 2026. SkyBridge Capital founder Scaramucci also believes Bitcoin will break $100,000 again as the 2028 halving cycle tightens supply. But in the short term, whether this rally is the start of a new bull market or just a short squeeze amplified by liquidity events remains to be seen.
Whether capital can continue to pass the baton depends on three variables: whether the U.S. Treasury's "balance sheet expansion" continues, whether ETF inflows remain strong, and whether macro liquidity truly turns loose. Currently, signals are positive but not without concerns. For investors, Bitcoin above $70,000 may require more sobriety and less frenzy.
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The above content is personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC Large Long Position (Holding Time Frame)
Up 3600 points (5%+). ✅ This is the first good opportunity to reduce the position.
Alright! After entering this long position, it performed well right from the open. This is the first time in a long while that I've established such a large-scale long position.
We entered this position to start capturing the breakout because the market has turned and has already eliminated most traders waiting for new lows in Q4.
The market continues to eliminate many who are waiting and are now completely blocked out from the long side.
These are good times to go long and only go long.
We caught the breakout long, even though it seemed a bit late at the time, and it has now risen 3500 points (5%).
Usually, a move of this magnitude is the final take-profit target for our typical hourly swing longs, but for a holding long like this, you may have noticed I wait until a 5% move to reduce the position. Honestly, this profit-taking is just the beginning of the take-profit journey.
Now that we've risen 5%, there's no better time to reduce the position. Psychologically, for my personal journey, this immediately recovers the 6% loss from yesterday, and so on.
We're here now, and out of discipline, we have to do this, so it gets done.
I've also moved the stop loss to 65.5k, so the trade risk is completely cleared.
Why reduce the position, Astro? For beginners, this is how I reduce the pressure of a large trade (I took a significant risk of 2.5% of the entire position on this trade) without setting a "stop loss to break even."
Because moving the stop loss to break even is an arbitrary move without technical meaning, which ultimately stops you out more than hitting the target, causing the same FOMO/frustration issues as missing the entry.
From here, we just need to stay relaxed and let the trade run longer.
Large position, for a big move.
In that big move, the first 5% is now locked in. SK Hynix’s plan to repurchase 24.07M shares, about 3.3% outstanding, and cancel them sets a concrete benchmark for capital returns. Samsung’s position is less settled: its existing policy combines KRW9.8T in annual dividends with 50% of three-year cumulative FCF, while any buyback remains under review.
The real comparison is not headline size but capital discipline. If AI memory materially lifts cash flow, Samsung may gain room to fund expansion and strengthen returns; until timing and scale are defined, however, reports of a plan above KRW100T should be treated as a scenario, not a commitment. Not advice, just analysis.
#SamsungToFollowHynixMidday Market Express｜August 21
The market continues its short squeeze upward momentum, with Bitcoin steadily surging higher. Market sentiment has entered the greed zone, and on-exchange capital activity has significantly increased. Major cryptocurrencies follow the market's oscillating rise, with market differentiation intensifying and funds rapidly switching among various hot sectors.
At the sector level, the MEME track has erupted again, led by $NEIRO driving the market, while the veteran MEME PEPE also catches up simultaneously. Short-term speculative funds are clustering, showing clear signs of sentiment-driven trading; RWA asset ENA remains strong, continuously attracting sustained capital attention; DeFi and AI small-cap coins alternate in volatility, opening short-term profit opportunities.
On the other hand, previously popular speculative coins collectively pull back, with BEAT plunging over 11%, and RE and $H weakening simultaneously. After the heat fades, selling pressure is released in concentration, with rapid handover between old and new hotspots, highlighting a stark contrast.
Currently, short-term market sentiment is overheated, with many coins entering overbought zones. The rotation speed of hotspots is extremely fast, and the risk of chasing highs continues to increase. Going forward, focus on whether the market can hold its high levels; once the market stalls, the correction strength of short-term hotspots should not be underestimated.
Market dynamics are for review reference only and should not be directly used as a basis for judging price movements.
This article is for market review only and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $BTC $ETH $SOL Betting right, the whales leveraging loop long on $ETH and $BTC have started taking profits!🤩
Address 0x268…47643 withdrew 79,226.49 ETH (about $140 million) from exchanges during 2026.07-08, at an average price of $1776.83; since 08.19, it has deposited a total of 10,887.15 ETH ($24.16 million) back to exchanges. If sold, it would realize a profit of $4.817 million, with the stablecoins from the sale all used to repay Spark loans.
Currently still collateralizing 47,889 wstETH and 1200 WBTC, borrowing 83.67 million USDS, with a health factor of 2.26.
Wallet address 0x268448f31594f4636d03cbb4e813b94801e47643$BTC 8.21 Market Anomaly
"BTC surged from 64,000 to 75,000 in two days, and the most dangerous thing in the market now is actually not the decline."
Checking the market again at noon today, BTC has already reached around 75,000, with an intraday high even touching 75,800.
Two days ago, everyone was still discussing whether it could hold steady around 64,000.
Now some are already starting to talk about 80,000.
This is what I think is the most worth discussing today.
The faster the market rises, the faster people's expectations tend to inflate.
At 64,000, people feared further decline,
At 70,000, they feared missing out,
After 74,000, they began to feel that 70,000 was cheap.
When the price doesn't change, people are very cautious.
After continuous price increases, those worries seem to have disappeared overnight.
But why has BTC been able to move so fast these past two days? We've actually analyzed it:
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, first improving the external liquidity environment, weakening the dollar and Treasury yields; then a large number of shorts were forced to cover, further amplifying the speed of the rise.
The problem lies exactly here.
A short squeeze can make the market run very fast, but running fast doesn't mean the market can maintain this speed forever.
From your current 4-hour chart, BTC has already surged continuously from around 64,000 to above 75,600, with a very large cumulative increase in a short time. #PopMartEarningsWatch Pop Mart reported first-half revenue of RMB17.17 billion, representing 23.8% year-on-year growth, while attributable net profit increased 10.1% to roughly RMB5.04 billion. The geographic picture was mixed: Greater China revenue expanded 47.3%, but Asia-Pacific and the Americas declined 9.7% and 16.5%. Its intellectual-property portfolio is also changing. THE MONSTERS, which includes LABUBU, lost momentum, while Twinkle Twinkle grew nearly sixfold and became the company’s second-largest IP.
The results show that Pop Mart still has strong consumer demand, but the quality of its growth deserves attention. Slower profit growth relative to revenue may indicate rising costs, weaker product mix or heavier expansion spending. The company’s ability to develop several successful characters is encouraging because dependence on a single collectible trend can be risky. However, overseas weakness and slower inventory turnover could become larger problems if consumer enthusiasm cools. Investors should focus on margins, repeat purchases and overseas store productivity rather than treating every new character launch as another LABUBU-level success.$xSNDK I called for taking profits a couple of days ago, and the -12% drop over two days confirmed it. Don't chase the rebound after taking profits; wait for a pullback to 1,500–1,520 before considering further action.
On Investor Day, it surged +15% to 1,827, and I called to exit; as a result, on 8/18 it dropped -9% to 1,626, and on 8/19 another -3.5% to 1,569, wiping out 12% in two days, fully confirming the call. On 8/20, it slightly rebounded +2.02% to close at 1,600.62, but after hours it fell again to 1,581, indicating that 1,570–1,600 is the current value range.
The long-term contract floor logic remains unchanged: $93.9 billion minimum revenue locked in, $15.5 billion buyback, target gross margin 80%, this is real progress, not just empty promises. Analysts have 20 buys and 1 sell, with an average target price of 2,126 (some as high as 3,600). But the problem remains that it has risen too much. From 240 last December to 1,600 now, it has increased 5.6 times in 8 months, already pricing in earnings for the next couple of years. Look at Micron MU, despite explosive earnings, it still fell 8% after hours; SNDK is clearly lagging now.
Moreover, the macro environment is not cooperating today: 30-year US Treasury bonds weakened again, 10-year yield back to 4.7%, and the shadow of the storage sector crash on 8/18 (Hynix ADR -9%) still lingers. SanDisk is a company transformed by long-term contracts into a floor company, but a floor does not mean no pullbacks.Bitcoin breaks through the 200-day moving average, has the bull market really started?
Yesterday, I believed that the Bitcoin bear market had not yet ended, and this round of rally was still likely a rebound rather than a reversal.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin continued to rise with increased volume and further broke through the dense resistance zone of $65,000–$74,000, with the potential to continue rebounding to test resistance level 1 (82,850).
At the same time, Bitcoin also significantly broke through the 200-day moving average, reaching a peak about 10% above it.
The 200-day moving average is generally regarded as an important indicator for judging medium- to long-term trends and is often used by the market as the dividing line between bull and bear markets.
So, does this mean I need to change my judgment?
My answer is: not yet.
Because:
Breaking through the 200-day moving average does not equal the start of a new bull market.
From historical cycles, the main down phase of a bear market usually struggles to sustain a long-term run above the 200-day moving average.
Therefore, this significant breakthrough of the 200-day moving average does indicate that the main down phase of the bear market may be nearing its end or has already ended.
But the bear market is not only a downtrend phase; it may also include a sideways consolidation phase lasting several months or even over a year.
During such a sideways phase, Bitcoin can also break through the 200-day moving average and even run significantly above it.
There are two typical historical cases:
Case 1: 2015
After the downtrend from December 2013 to January 2015 ended, Bitcoin underwent about 7 months of bottom sideways consolidation from January to August 2015.
During this period, Bitcoin once broke through the 200-day moving average, peaking about 26% above it.
The entire sideways period saw a maximum rise of about 90%, ultimately only rebounding to the 0.33 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend.
Case 2: 2018–2020
After the downtrend from December 2017 to December 2018 ended, Bitcoin experienced a long 15-month wide-range consolidation from December 2018 to March 2020.
During this time, Bitcoin not only ran above the 200-day moving average for a long period but also rose more than 3 times from the bottom, peaking at the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend.
So:
Main down phase of bear market ending ≠ immediate start of a new bull market.
Then, which scenario is the current market closer to?
I mainly observe three aspects:
1. Capital flow
Capital flow has indeed clearly improved.
In the past two days, Bitcoin spot funds saw net inflows of about $333 million and $158 million respectively, with the day before yesterday's net inflow hitting a new high in the past 3 months.
However, yesterday's capital inflow scale dropped significantly, so it still needs to be observed whether the capital can continue to flow in and further expand.
2. ETF funds
The day before yesterday, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow exceeded $500 million, indicating a clear improvement in institutional participation.
But yesterday, net inflows for multiple ETFs dropped significantly, with some ETFs even falling to zero.
Therefore, ETF funds have shown positive changes, but sustainability remains to be confirmed.
3. Technical aspect
Bitcoin's rise over the past two days has been noticeably rapid.
From historical experience, short-term consecutive rapid rallies often lead to sharp corrections, making it difficult to confirm a new sustained one-sided trend based on just a few days of quick gains.
Moreover, this aligns with the judgment criteria I proposed yesterday:
What really needs to be observed is not just whether Bitcoin can break through the 200-day moving average, but whether it can sustain volume-driven upward momentum.
Currently, these conditions have not been fully confirmed.
Therefore, I still tend to interpret the current market as:
A sideways consolidation after the main down phase of the bear market, with this rally being a rebound within the bottom consolidation rather than the start of a new bull market cycle.
As for the level of this bottom consolidation, I will focus on the 82,850 resistance level.
If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through 82,850, then this market is more likely a small-range bottom sideways consolidation;
If it can break through 82,850 with volume, it may enter a wide-range consolidation phase similar to December 2018–March 2020.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.📊 July’s exchange data needs context.
CoinDesk Research reported CEX spot + derivatives volume fell 23.9% to $3.76T, while DEXs reached a record 19.5% share of spot trading.
But DEX spot volume also fell 9.82% to $176B.
So the record share shows relative resilience, not necessarily record adoption.
RWA perpetual volume rose 47.8% to a record $460B.
Source: CoinDesk Research.
Disclaimer: Informational only, not investment advice.
#DEX #DeFi #RWA Short term: Bulls dominate with very strong momentum, but RSI has entered the overbought zone, so chasing the highs carries high risk.
Medium term: 75,800 is the watershed—breaking through confirms a trend reversal; if resisted, it’s just a rebound and may fall back.
In a nutshell: This is currently a "bear corpse pile-up market," follow the trend but don’t mistake the rebound for a bull market, keep a close eye on 75,800. $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Comparing volatility and Sharpe ratio, $ETH volatility is 129.2%, $BTC 54.6%, meaning $ETH's turbulence is more than twice that of $BTC. Sharpe ratio: $BTC 19.67 vs $ETH 11.11, indicating $BTC is more favorable after risk adjustment.
$BTC earns more return per unit of risk taken, while $ETH relies on absolute gains to compete. With the same position size, $ETH is like riding a roller coaster, $BTC like riding a bus.
Regarding capital attraction, net OI inflow over 6 days: $ETH +$996 million, $BTC +$800 million, with $ETH attracting 20% more. On 8/20 single day, $ETH net inflow was $709 million, $BTC $576 million, both exploded, but $ETH was stronger.
Funding rates: $ETH daily average 0.0058%, $BTC 0.0057%, almost the same, both longs are paying moderate rent, no overheating. Smart money this round favors $ETH, capital voted with their feet. ETH’s rally is no longer just a short squeeze. ETF inflows and spot demand are adding real fuel, while the broader liquidity backdrop is supporting both crypto and gold. With ETH RSI above 80, chasing here looks risky—the cleaner setup may be waiting for a pullback rather than blindly shorting or buying the top.ETH first tests 2400, while BTC is stuck at 75000: Is this a catch-up rally, or has capital really rotated?
Brothers, I just looked at BTC and ETH together, and the market is a bit abnormal.
$BTC started to catch its breath after rushing near 75000, while $ETH has been steadily moving toward 2400. BTC is rising more steadily, ETH is rising more sharply, and those eager are already asking: Is capital shifting from BTC to ETH?
I’m not ready to draw that conclusion yet.
ETH indeed has two fires this round: one is the catch-up rally after a long lag, and the other is the recent continuous net inflow into spot ETFs, with a single-day scale once close to $190 million. Capital is willing to bet on higher Beta, so ETH naturally has greater elasticity than BTC.
But a catch-up rally does not equal rotation.
As long as BTC holds 72000, the main trend is intact; whether ETH can break through 2400 with volume is the confirmation of capital migration. If ETH fails to break 2400 and falls back below 2300, it looks more like an emotional catch-up rally.
I won’t chase just because ETH is rising fast, nor will I short just because BTC is sideways.
Brothers, do you think ETH is running ahead early, or is this another internal rotation within the mainstream?
⚠️ Personal market discussion only, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？