Orbit Post Sitemap
During earnings season, I prefer to put my position in Tesla: not betting on deliveries, but betting on whether the narrative can be pushed further forward.
In the past two days, I've been reviewing earnings forecasts from major companies, and personally, I lean towards Tesla (TSLA) having a chance to beat expectations this quarter.
The delivery data is already out: 486,532 vehicles, which is indeed better than Wall Street's expectations. But what really determines whether this earnings report can beat expectations is no longer how many cars were sold, but whether the automotive gross margin can hold steady, whether energy storage can continue to scale, and whether management's stance on Robotaxi and FSD commercialization is more optimistic than the market's.
Currently, market expectations for Tesla are not very high; Q2 just experienced revenue beating expectations but EPS missing significantly, which pressured the stock price.
If this time the automotive business gross margin can be maintained or even slightly rebound, and energy storage continues to maintain high growth, the market will easily reprice it.
More importantly, Robotaxi has made substantial progress in Austin, and the number of Cybercabs is also increasing. If management can provide a relatively clear city expansion timetable or unit economics model this time, even if just earlier than expected, it could become a catalyst for beating expectations.
Of course, risks remain. Price cuts continue to erode profits, capital expenditures remain high, and if the earnings report only shows good deliveries but profits continue to be squeezed, even if revenue looks good, the market may vote with its feet.$PHA surged 26% in one day with volume 14.5 times the usual, then a "math genius" suddenly appeared in the forum.
Let me translate his theory: buying the bottom of over 400 coins is like starting 400 companies; eventually one will go public, and the profits will naturally diverge. Sounds very reasonable, right?
The problem is that out of those 400 coins, 390 are zombies, and 9 of the remaining 10 are on the path to zero. His model completely ignores the death rate. Anyone can post screenshots of doubling positions, but what about the 400 that didn’t double? No one speaks up.
Today’s volume is real money, 14.5 times the usual, pushing the price to 0.64. But look at the position — up 71% in 30 days, nearly doubled in 90 days, and doubled in half a year. Who’s really profiting the most? Those who bought in at 0.3 to 0.4. If you chase now, you’re just taking their profits.
This position isn’t unwatchable, but chasing now means paying wages to the earlier batch. $PHA 🌟 Short-term profit-taking activity has put pressure on $BTC
In the first two weeks of October, short-term $BTC holders who were in profit executed the largest transfer to exchanges in the past year. This selling action caused the price to drop from 87k to the current level.
So far, this profit-taking flow has returned to the annual average level.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #CanBTCReboundLast Why does Circle only keep $7 for every $100 it earns?
In the first half of 2026, Circle $CRCL had a revenue of $1.4 billion, paid $819 million to partners, reinvested $473 million, and had a net profit of $108 million, accounting for 7.7%.
Converted, for every $100 of revenue: $59 went to distribution partners; $34 was reinvested; only $7 was kept.
According to Circle's latest disclosed data, that $34 reinvestment resulted in: 55 financial licenses, clearing and settlement relationships with 25 banks, compliance systems in 185 countries, and native deployments on 35 public blockchains. Abandon $ZEC, switch to shorting $ETH! The big trend is downward, so it's safer to follow the trend and short.
Since I missed the chance to flip the position on ZEC, I'll short ETH instead.
Manual take profit on ZEC
For the previous ZEC short, although the profit was substantial, its volatility was extremely intense, fluctuating up and down and very torturous. To secure the gains, I chose to manually take profit. Trading is not about romance; take profits when you can.
Precise entry on ETH short
After taking profit on ZEC, I immediately focused on ETH. Why? Because its structure is much clearer than ZEC's!
I decisively opened a short near 2391.33 for the following reasons:
1. Moving averages pressing down like Mount Tai: ETH price is heavily suppressed by EMA9, EMA21, EMA55, and the Bollinger middle band. A classic big bearish alignment.
2. 2400 resistance holds strong: Today ETH tried multiple times to break the 2400 whole number resistance but failed each time, and volume did not support the move, indicating bulls are exhausted.
3. Downtrend line perfectly applying pressure: Each time price retraces to the downtrend line, it is precisely suppressed, showing weakness.
4. MACD death cross with expanding green bars.
My position plan:
· Stop loss: set at 2421 (if broken, it means the bearish structure is invalidated).
· Take profit: first target near previous low around 2330.
Trading insight:
Don't be stubbornly bullish or bearish; just follow the trend. Rather than suffering in highly volatile coins, it's better to steadily profit in mainstream coins with clear structure.
What do you think, can ETH smoothly drop to 2330 this time? If it were you, would you short heavily or test with a light position at this level? Feel free to discuss in the comments! $BTC dominance is 59.6%, the entire market of 2.74 trillion USD fell over the day, with the majority of funds still concentrated on $BTC. Tokenized assets rose 101.9% in one day, RWA increased 46.3%, and the trading card RWA platforms also moved accordingly. Several sectors point to the same narrative: real-world assets going on-chain. Where is the money coming from? Look at USDT. Market cap over 24 hours is down -0.27%, stablecoins are shrinking, and no new money is coming in from OTC. Fear and greed index dropped from 57 to 55, sentiment hasn't warmed up. The fact that prices can rise like this without new funds means existing capital is withdrawing from other altcoins and crowding into the RWA sector. My judgment is that this rotation is short-lived; existing capital won't sustain it for long. The end signals to watch are twofold: RWA sector's 24h gains falling back to single digits, or $BTC dominance rising further from 59.6%, indicating money is flowing back into $BTC. Only if USDT market cap turns to expansion can it be considered new money taking over, giving the rotation confidence to continue.Bitcoin breaks through $83,000, MicroStrategy is buying, $ETH is entering, why can't $BTC just lift off?
Here's the conclusion first: the buying is real, but the selling is more urgent. Bitcoin is now stuck around $82,000, it touches $83,000 and then gets pushed back, completely different vibe from when it surged to $87,000 before.
MicroStrategy bought another 267 coins last week at an average price of $82,900, holding up to 848,000 coins now. ETH is not bad either, with a single-day net inflow of 526 million, BlackRock alone contributed 665 million. Looks lively, right? But the price just won't move.
The problem lies on the other side. Short-term holders have been dumping too much while in profit onto exchanges, and that selling pressure hasn't been fully absorbed yet. The volume bought by institutions can't absorb the profit-taking from retail and old holders. Simply put, slow money can't beat fast money.
From a technical perspective, the $82,500 to $82,800 range has turned from support into resistance, with the weekly close below it. According to Rekt Capital, if this level isn't reclaimed, the price will likely test below $80,000 again. Currently, the short-term is grinding back and forth between $80,800 and $82,800, unable to go up or down.
Directionally, I lean towards the short-term correction not being over. It's not bearish on Bitcoin, but the risk-reward ratio for chasing longs here is poor. The $80,000 round number will likely be tested again. If you really want to act, wait near $80,000 to see if there's a false breakdown and recovery signal, which is more comfortable than chasing hard now. #BitMine成全球最大ETH质押方 $SOL #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Netflix's main focus in 2026 will no longer be "how many new subscriptions can be added," but rather "how deeply can existing users be mined." The three lines of advertising, sports, and gaming all point to the same question: can watch time become more valuable than membership fees? However, the financial report and market simultaneously reveal frictions: slowing growth, pressure on watch time, upfront costs, and valuations that are not cheap.I don't know if it's just an illusion, but institutions and smart money whales are going all out to short mainstream coins.
$BTC $ETH #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Leverage is heating up, but spot hasn't kept pace
Shorts were just cleared out in one round, and all the money has flowed back to the futures side.
How is this calculated: In the past day, $BTC futures net inflow was $859 million, while spot was only $143 million.
In the last hour, futures still saw an inflow of $42.63 million, but spot actually had an outflow of $2.49 million.
A common misreading: many call this a bull takeover of the market, but it's not.
Money flowing into futures only means more people are betting on direction; if spot doesn't follow, the price lacks support.
It's even clearer with $ETH: in one hour, futures inflow was $58.53 million, spot only $3.4 million.
Market makers don't care who shouts the loudest; they watch if there's real buying on the spot side.
When the price can't push higher and no one is absorbing, resistance levels become meaningful.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
#$BTC $ETH A month ago, they were still loudly reaffirming the "SOL Treasury Strategy," holding over 2 million tokens, ranking fifth globally. Yesterday, they completely liquidated every single one, converting it into $223.8 million and immediately planning to buy back their own stock — SkyAI's move here tossed aside even the word "faith" before it could warm up.
Even more ironically, the buyback clause requiring SOL to stay above $100 was deleted by themselves. With no tokens left, who is it for? Major shareholder Bastion, holding nearly 10%, flipped the table on the spot, demanding an independent audit and forcing the buyback price up from $3 to $3.5 — no rise, no deal.
So is the treasury company a believer or a middleman? Pumping at highs, cashing out at lows, even major shareholders can't stand it and want an audit, yet retail investors are still pretending to sleep? $SOL $ETH $BTC #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ Conclusion first: $KORU dropped from a high of $11.64 to $11 today, falling 9.5% in 24 hours. The overall market only fell 1.7%, so this divergence is not a false sell-off.
Looking at the 4H chart: $KORU started a downward trend from 10:00, with highs gradually pushed down from 11.64 to 11.51 → 11.15 → 11.08. The 14:00 candle is the most critical: volume suddenly surged to 330,000 contracts (3 times the previous candle), but the price only reached 11.2 and couldn't go higher—high volume without price increase, a signal of main force reducing positions.
This is a relatively illiquid asset (24-hour volume about $94M), so once selling pressure can't be absorbed, the decline will be amplified. Without substantial negative news, it's most likely a chain liquidation cascade caused by leverage.
Do you think this kind of "small market drop, big coin drop" divergence is a buying opportunity or a stop-loss signal? Simply put, the world appears differently to different observers, and there is no superiority or correctness in any observer's perspective.
If the way of thinking from relativity is introduced into the field of economics, the conclusion would be: value can be different for people in different environments and with different ideologies, and none of these conclusions are right or wrong. In relativity, only the speed of light is absolute, unaffected by the observer's change. Similarly, in economics, only price is absolute, also unaffected by the observer's change. This leads to an interesting conclusion: price is absolute, while value is relative; price is real, while value is virtual. Moreover, price is unique, while value can be infinite, and among these countless different values, none is special. A trader's perception of the market is merely the degree of deviation between the relative value formed by their own values and the market's absolute real price.
Values are abstract; they originate from the beliefs in each person's mind. Interestingly, the values in each of our minds are not static; on the contrary, they are highly unstable and changeable. In fact, there are infinitely many factors that can influence the market, but all investors consider only a limited number of issues. From the "iceberg principle" perspective, traders' beliefs are all taken out of context, like blind men touching an elephant. What the market is does not matter; what matters is what traders are willing to believe. Regarding market fluctuations, it is less about changes in value and more about changes in values.🔷Pay with stablecoins at 175 million stores: Visa + Mesh
Visa and Mesh allow spending crypto and stablecoins from your wallet wherever Visa is accepted, without a separate card. Mesh converts to fiat, and the store receives a regular payment.
Red flag: no launch dates, wallet list, or regions provided. "175 million" refers to the entire Visa network, not stores accepting crypto.
DYOR.
Wallet or card: what do you pay with? 👇
#VisaMeshStablecoinPay $BTC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 加密行业最贵的东西，可能从来不是技术，也不是流动性，而是获得新用户的信任成本。 10月21日起，Google将更新面向阿联酋的金融产品广告政策。符合条件的加密货币交易所和软件钱包，可以在取得当地认可牌照、同时通过Google认证后投放广告。 表面看，这只是一次广告规则调整。但如果把Google理解成全球最大的流量入口之一，事情就不一样了：谁能合法购买流量，谁不能进入主流获客渠道，正在被写进一套更清楚的规则里。 这不是全面放开，而是给流量加了一道牌照闸门 按照Google公布的更新，面向阿联酋推广加密货币交易所或软件钱包的广告主，需要获得以下监管机构之一的许可：阿联酋资本市场管理局（CMA）、迪拜金融服务管理局（DFSA）、阿布扎比全球市场金融服务监管局（FSRA），或迪拜虚拟资产监管局（VARA）。 拿到当地牌照还不够，广告主还要通过Google自己的认证，并继续满足当地其他法律要求。 对于差价合约和滚动即期外汇等复杂投机产品，Google列出的认可监管机构则是CMA、DFSA和FSRA。这说明Google并没有把“加密资产”作为一个笼统类别处理，而是在按照业务性质和监管边界拆分准入条Boss Shi has two short positions with unrealized profits of 906,000 U, and this XRP trade really made money!
Breaking it down:
$XRP short, full position 10x leverage, 1.2 million tokens opened at 1.5022, unrealized profit +240,300, return +133.29%, the strongest in the market.
$BTC short, full position 10x leverage, 150 tokens opened at 86195.3, unrealized profit +666,200, return +51.52%, main profit driver.
The total margin for both trades is about 1.38 million U, overall only 1.89x short, position not heavy, but the direction is spot on.
The BTC trade contributed 70% of the profit, relying on a steady decline from 86195 down to 81700;
The XRP trade is even more extreme, dropping from 1.41 to 1.30 in a week, down 7.7%, with almost no decent rebound, the short position profited blindly.
What about the next week?
The macro factors remain the same: oil prices, US Treasury yields, and a strong dollar are weighing on the market, ETFs continue to see outflows, BTC will likely consolidate between 81,000 and 84,000, if it breaks below 81,000 it could fall further;
XRP is more fragile, when the market lacks momentum, these high-beta coins only follow the decline, below 1.3 look towards 1.25.
Risks are also clear: both trades are short, the same direction means no hedge, if a short squeeze rebound really comes, the 10x leverage will cause rapid drawdowns, knowing when to take profits is an art.
In short, Boss Shi is riding the trend this time, not bottom fishing or top calling. Data comes from position screenshots, may have delays, purely personal opinion, not investment advice.How to find potential golden dogs in memes that have already passed the first phase - 24h trading volume, number of holders, community
No need to say much about trading volume. Those that emerge in the first phase, as long as they are not malicious DS types, are basically independent narrative leaders. Observe the growth in the number of holders, then check if there is community building. Many SOL tokens don’t have a TG community but are on X, so daily attention to the growth in numbers is also necessary.
- Bottom chip distribution and potential whale funds
For whales, unless you dig out all related wallet addresses of the funds, it’s hard to use data to prove the presence of whales, wild whales, big whales, or strong whales. SOL is more about speculative capital making a quick hit and running.
A good IP (independent, new, with meme attributes) is also favored by capital, but if the front-row chips hold too much, it won’t start that quickly. It will at least grind for 2-3 days, try to pump and then dump to test selling pressure. If the front-row can’t be washed out, accumulation will start at a suitable price range, leading to a pump, but the ceiling won’t be that high since those holding too much in the front row are not insiders.
Based on this psychology, I often choose coins that no one wants, picking up trash to find potential. But once those with many chips dump and the support is insufficient, I will also max sell.The SOX index's 1.61% rise after eight losing sessions matters because the rebound was broad across memory names, while the Nasdaq 100 also advanced about 1.2%. That points to a pause in valuation pressure, not proof that it has cleared. This week's earnings need to show demand and orders can justify AI capex as funding costs remain a restraint.
#ChipStocksEnd8DaySlide 🧪 In the afternoon, I kept an eye on a thinly traded stock and casually reviewed the overall market
$LAB 0.04406, down 2.54. After dropping from the high point, the entrants are basically small positions speculating on a rebound, with no stable buying support, so whenever there are sell orders during the session, the price slides down, and the rebound is just an emotional pulse that can't hold. The market characteristic of this kind of stock is thin liquidity and quick moves up and down, not suitable for applying mainstream coin support logic.
$BTC 81471, up 0.15 📈 The afternoon market showed little change. Breaking it down from two sides: on one side, large wallets holding more than 10 coins are diversifying accumulation, and the number of participating big holders is increasing; on the other side, spot ETFs continue small net outflows, leverage funding rates hover around neutral or slightly negative, with long-term holders locking positions and short-term traders deleveraging, these two forces keep the price confined within a narrow range. The price above 81000 doesn't fall deeply due to stagnant supply, and can't rise due to lack of incremental buying, not because someone is actively dumping.
$RE 0.38090, down 4.60 😴 The small RWA insurance pool is the thinnest; the 0.41 support level broke down to 0.38, thin volume failed to support, and a single sell order pushed it down more than four points. The slow logic hasn't changed but the price is suppressed; first, let's see if it can stop falling.
$SPCX 144.25, down 0.85 🚀 SpaceX's first full quarterly financial report after listing has landed, the on-chain share is recalculated at 144, the pricing anchor is US stocks not the crypto market, the price is just a placeholder.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Today I completely sold off Hynix and significantly reduced my holdings in Korean stocks. Yesterday, when I was making money, I thought, "Surely, holding on to this thing will make money," but today I think, "Surely, decisively taking profits is the best." 😅 In short, decisively cutting losses is never wrong.The main funder ran away. Base exited Superchain on February 18 this year, causing OP to drop 28% in 48 hours. It previously contributed over 90% of the collective gas fee revenue. Now that income is gone, the so-called "50% buyback" fund is discounted.
The buyback hasn't started yet. The current rise is based on expectations, not actual buying. Relying on a 2027 announcement to support 2026 prices has rarely worked historically.
Unlocks are scheduled until 2029. Circulating supply is 2.3 billion / total supply is 4.29 billion. Moreover, STRK has surged 322% in four weeks, rising more aggressively than OP — indicating capital rotation within the L2 sector, not just OP dominating. $OP BTC at $81,800, do you still dare to hold?
ETF outflows have continued for two consecutive weeks totaling 228 million, institutional holding cost is 84,350 with everyone at a floating loss, yet the number of large whale addresses on-chain has hit a new high—at the 81,800 level, is this a golden pit or the last window to get off?
First, look at the surface: box consolidation, neither dead nor alive.
BTC is now at 81,800, down just over 1% in 24 hours, weekly chart is soft. It has retraced 35% from last October’s ATH of 126k, market sentiment at 55, on the edge of greed—not panicking, not euphoric. Candlesticks tell you: 80k-84k box range bouncing repeatedly, RSI 37-48 neutral to slightly low, MACD negative but no accelerated decline, 50-day moving average still above 200-day moving average—mid-term structure intact, but short-term is just grinding.
First thing: institutions are standing guard at 84,350, you are cutting losses at 81,800—this is called precise handover.
US spot BTC ETF has had net outflows for two consecutive weeks, 228 million last week. Why outflows? Because institutions’ average holding cost is about 84,350, now at 81,800, all at a floating loss.
Institutions themselves are trapped, short-term they have no face to add positions, nor to run. Upward movement is suppressed, it’s that simple.
But look at the other side—Strategy is still buying on a small scale, medium and large addresses are at a new high. No large-scale sell-off on-chain, more like consolidation after high-level rotation.
Second thing: Uptober failed, but the real bomb is on October 28.
October is traditionally a strong month for BTC, but this year it’s been suppressed by ETF outflows and macro factors, performance is mediocre. This is not BTC failing, it’s macro holding its head down.
Fed rate at 3.75%-4.00%, just hiked once in September. CPI/PPI is hot, 10-year US Treasury yield over 5%, a headwind for zero-yield assets like BTC. China’s Q3 GDP exceeded expectations briefly boosting risk appetite, but global tech stock volatility and oil prices are dragging behind.
Biggest focus: October 28 FOMC.
Market expectations for further rate hikes have clearly declined. If Fed tone is dovish or subsequent data softens, liquidity expectations improve immediately—BTC as a high Beta asset will bounce faster than anyone. Conversely, if inflation data again exceeds expectations, whether 80k holds or not is another matter.
This is not a one-way market, it’s waiting for a catalyst. No catalyst, continue grinding; catalyst arrives, one bullish candle changes perspectives.
Third thing: technicals in one sentence—80k is life, 84.5k is the hurdle.
Support: 81,300-81,000 (short-term) → 80,000 (psychological iron bottom) → 78,000-77,000
Resistance: 82,300-83,000 → 84,500 (ETF cost zone, dense trapped positions) → 87,000-88,000 (20-month moving average)
Daily chart box consolidation, 4-hour chart weak, volume average, no abnormal heavy selling. This is not a crash pattern, it’s a shakeout pattern. But the difference between shakeout and crash is whether 80k holds.
If 80k breaks, 78,000 next; if 80k holds, 84,500 next. The 3,000 gap is the dividing line between retail and hunters.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Post-halving supply pressure low, circulating 20.1 million coins
Institutionalization continues, corporate treasury allocations ongoing
On-chain large whales accumulating, address count at new highs
50-day MA still above 200-day MA, mid-term structure intact
If FOMC dovish, liquidity expectations reverse immediately
On the other side:
ETF outflows for two weeks, institutional floating losses suppress upside
US Treasury yields 5%+, high rates + sticky inflation environment
84.5k dense trapped positions, rebounds face sell-offs from unlocking positions
Uptober failed, market lacks narrative catalyst
Bulls just shaken out once, sentiment fragile
Trading strategy
Short-term (1-3 days):
Light long positions near 81,800, stop loss 80,800-80,500, target 82,500-83,000 to reduce. If volume breaks below 81,000 and fails to hold, reverse to light short, target 80,000-79,000, stop loss above 81,500. Position size 10%-15%, use high leverage cautiously—recent volatility punishes the stubborn.
Mid-term (until FOMC):
Build long base positions in batches at 80,000-81,000, target 84,500-85,000, stop loss 79,000. If daily close holds above 84,500 with volume, add positions targeting 87,000-90,000. If daily close breaks below 80,000, reduce or switch to short, target 76,000-75,000.
Long-term (spot mindset):
Slow dollar-cost average below 80,000, don’t chase highs. Post-halving supply structure is clear, long-term narrative intact. But don’t expect doubling in a month—BTC is a slow bull now, not a mad dog.
BTC now is like itself in October 2023—
Everyone was cursing “halving is a scam” “ETF is all priced in,” and what happened?
From 27,000 to 73,000.
Every big rally start has a period of frustrating consolidation that makes you want to give up.
The market never lacks opportunity, it lacks you still alive at 80k.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC When BTC starts dancing with gold, ETH is still paying for Nasdaq
BTC and ETH are taking two different paths. BTC's correlation with gold has risen above 50%, while its 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped from 60% to 33%; ETH has not decoupled and remains highly tied to Nasdaq. Same market, two pricing logics.
For $BTC, 80400 is the trendline support, 81000 is the 400-day moving average, strong buying support around 80000, and 81800 above is the lower boundary of the triangle—only a close above this signals strength. ETF net outflow last week was 229 million, BlackRock IBIT outflow was 165.4 million, but exchange reserves only rose from 2.67 million to 2.68 million, whale holdings remain above 3 million coins, and groups holding over 10,000 coins have not accelerated selling. Selling pressure is easing, and spot demand has not truly turned positive yet.
$ETH is more subtle. 2400 is a psychological barrier, 2357 is the 24-hour low, and 2368–2377 below is a dense on-chain liquidation zone. Resistance above is at 2427, but the real focus is on microstructure: ETH's eight largest liquidation pools are all above the current price, with 101.6 million liquidated in 24 hours, including 61.1 million short positions. Shorts are paving the way for longs, but only if 2357 holds.
Strategically, for BTC, only confirm a bottom between 80400–81000, and consider the right side only after closing above 81800; for ETH, maintain a squeeze logic above 2357, and if it breaks, liquidation zones trigger—do not enter. Two markets, do not use the same position sizing.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Netflix will release its Q3 earnings report on October 20. The market is currently focused on two things: revenue growth and the advertising business.
The company's own forecast is Q3 revenue of $12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%. Operating margin is expected to be 33.2%, compared to 28.2% in the same period last year, an increase of 5 percentage points. Both revenue and margin are rising, but the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to previous years. The market's concern is exactly this: Netflix's subscription growth has peaked, so what will support it going forward?
The advertising business has become a new focus. Netflix is launching a low-cost ad-supported plan, aiming to use advertising revenue to make up for the shortfall in subscription growth. This earnings report will be watched to see if the advertising business has truly scaled, whether subscription users are still growing, and if the margin can be maintained above 33%. If advertising revenue exceeds expectations, the market may allow room for valuation recovery. If advertising falls short of expectations, combined with slowing subscription growth, the stock price will face significant pressure.
For BTC, this matter is not direct. But Netflix represents the consumer internet and streaming sectors, and its earnings reflect consumer spending willingness. If Netflix's growth slows, it indicates consumers are cutting back on non-essential spending, which is a negative signal for overall consumer confidence. Weak consumption puts pressure on the economy, making the Federal Reserve's policy path more complicated. In the short term, BTC will still focus on tonight's CPI; Netflix's earnings report is next week's matter.
Operationally, don't bet in advance. Wait for the earnings report to land and see how the market reacts before making decisions. #Strive large-scale accumulation, Strategy buyback scale exceeds coin purchase
Plain talk about Bitcoin
According to glassnode data: the exchange inflow caused by short-term holders realizing profits has fallen back to the annual average level.
The "release" phase of short-term profit-taking is basically over. Most of those who wanted to take profits during the rebound have already sold.
Exchange inflow returning to the mean indicates a decrease in active selling pressure from short-term holders.
Related indicators such as STH-SOPR are currently near 1.0 (break-even), indicating that recent buyers are basically neither making nor losing money when selling, with no large-scale panic selling or crazy profit-taking.
Reduced selling pressure ≠ increased demand. Many analyses point out that ETF and spot buyers have not yet clearly re-entered the market.
Recent ETF fund flows have been average, with net outflows at times.
The overall cost basis of short-term holders is still below the price (data points to about $74,000–$75,000 range), currently still providing some unrealized profit buffer, but the buffer is narrowing.
If the price continues to consolidate or slightly pull back, and new funds do not follow, the market may enter a longer period of consolidation.
Operate cautiously, hold your principal, and wait for positive signals before taking action🤑
$BTC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Glanced at the daily chart Monday morning: BTC at 82489, ETH at 2426, both slightly up, seemingly calm on the surface. But stretching the timeframe reveals: over the past month or so, the market has completed a round trip up and down.
BTC pushed from 62685 to 87374, nearly a 40% increase; ETH rose from 1869 to 2807, up 50%. During that period, anyone saying "the trend is back" had a strong case.
Then the market started to pull back. Now BTC has retraced about 5.6% from its high, ETH nearly 14%. ETH surged aggressively on the way up and didn’t hold back on the way down—when BTC sneezes, ETH catches a fever first.
The real pain isn’t the sharp drops, but this dull-knife style decline: small red candles one day, small green the next, with lower shadows probing then pulling back. Want to sell, but the drop isn’t decisive; want to buy, but can’t find a solid footing.
Last week’s CPI and PPI data caused continuous disturbances, now data days trigger reflexive reactions. Tonight when US markets open again, semiconductors have already fallen eight days straight last week; if weakness continues, crypto will likely wobble too.
So this wave— is it a consolidation after a rise, or a shakeout before a new start? The former means more pullback ahead; the latter means a grind before moving up. The answer depends on capital flow: continuous inflows and buyers on dips suggest a shakeout; if it’s just low-volume rebounds and weakness on data releases, it looks more like consolidation that’s not over yet.bmnr already holds 6.04 million ETH, about to acquire 5% of the total ETH supply, with most of the ETH already staked in PoS. Based on the current price of ETH, it can earn $309 million passively in a year. During this bear market, ETH's price dropped as low as $1500, and bmnr contributed significantly to the buying pressure.
My main concern is that bmnr openly controlling ETH makes it a major player. The ETH staked earns rewards in ETH, so to cash out, they would need to dump ETH on the market. In the 2026 bear market, ETH did not enter a deep bear phase, so bmnr essentially hasn't been tested by a severe bear market. If a deep bear occurs, will bmnr be forced to sell coins to repay loans due to borrowing interest?
In financial markets, whoever uses leverage must repay debts. There is no perpetual motion machine; when prices rise, they can spiral up stepping on each other’s heels, but when they fall, they spiral down to death. When a whale falls, life begins anew. We wait for the power of time to see how bmnr faces a deep bear and whether it can withstand it.传统金融的门正在一扇扇推开，但推开的速度远比价格K线要慢。德意志银行计划数周内面向机构和企业客户上线$BTC、$ETH托管，嘉信理财则开始逐步开放这两种资产的对外转账——从"只能买"到"能提走"，这一步的象征意义远大于即时资金冲击。 真正值得盯住的不是托管本身，而是名单的边界会不会外扩。嘉信目前的动作是扩大$SOL交易支持，这与开放$SOL托管是两件完全不同的事；$XRP虽在回升，却没有任何官方确认它进入嘉信或德银的托管序列。市场把"支持交易"误读成"支持托管"，是本轮叙事里最容易被高估的一环。 价格层面，$BTC报82,212美元，24小时涨1.28%，能否守住82,000取决于买盘接力；$ETH报2,416美元，涨1.58%，银行托管落地是利好，但不等于资金立刻入场；$SOL报104.55美元，涨2.29%，是四者中弹性最强的；$XRP报1.2984美元，涨1.92%，反弹成立但托管归属仍悬空。 我的判断是：托管门槛下移只是第一步，决定行情能走多远的从来不是名单，而是真实流入。今天四币同涨说明情绪修复，但要把反弹升级为趋势，需要看到托管名单正式扩容或链上净流入放大的确认信号。若名单$UNITREE has risen nearly 30% over two consecutive days, with negative funding rates deepening, and the short squeeze rally is still fermenting.
On Hyperliquid, UNITREE is currently priced at $80.285, up nearly 30% in two days, while the A-share Yushu Technology is also strengthening.
The contract continues to have negative funding rates, indicating a large number of short positions are trapped, continuously paying interest to the longs, and short squeeze pressure remains in the short term.
Large long holders with positions around 900,000 cost basis at 90.41 are still at a floating loss, and the pressure from this part of the position unwinding above is a hidden risk.
The current rally is driven by favorable robot policies, plus speculative hype ahead of the ecosystem conference on the 22nd.
Note that JPMorgan has given a reduce (underweight) rating with a target price below the current price, so do not misinterpret this as bullish. Meanwhile, Yushu's revenue grew in the first half of the year, but net profit after deducting non-recurring items declined, indicating fundamentals are not strong.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
$ETH
Nearly 5% of all circulating Ethereum tokens are tightly held by a single entity.
Publicly listed company Bitmine Immersion Technologies officially disclosed that its total Ethereum reserves have surpassed 6.04 million ETH, with a book value exceeding 15.1 billion USD, accounting for about 4.9% of the current total circulating Ethereum supply; even more notably, over 5 million ETH are already locked and staked on the Beacon Chain. ETH OKX spot price is 2411.97.
A single institution monopolizing millions of tokens is a double-edged sword. On the surface, the massive staking locks up a huge amount of circulating tokens, significantly easing the selling pressure in the secondary spot market; however, from the perspective of decentralization advocates, this excessive concentration of tokens and validator node computing power effectively subjects Ethereum to an "institutional centralization hostage" situation. If this institution encounters a liquidity crisis or initiates staking redemption and rebalancing, it could cause an unbearable systemic shock to the ecosystem. I judge that before concerns over token concentration ease, it will be difficult for external incremental buying to form a unilateral breakout above 2460. This week, the market is more likely to digest valuation between 2360 and 2450. Overturn condition: if the institution announces a long-term additional accumulation plan and the spot market breaks through 2500 with volume, the neutral consolidation judgment will be overturned.
$ETH
#WhaleLockupAndDecentralizationI firmly believe the price will reach 【80,500】, but the fluctuations along the way are significant, and it seems like everyone is waiting for me to hit stop loss or break even.
The long-short battle in funds has turned into retail investors shouting at each other.
The shorts say: "The price won't easily go up, giving the bulls and spot traders a chance to break even."
The longs say: "It definitely needs to trigger shorts to smoothly drop; this is a bear trap."
【And I have already pulled the break-even point.】
Ignoring outside noise, treat losing money as a good deed.
I often say, 【when there are no open positions, analysis is the calmest.】
You must be fully prepared, not changing your initial view amid rises and falls.
From last week to this week, I have been saying: 【The weekly line at 82,800 is a very critical level.】
There was a brief push up yesterday, but the daily line still couldn't hold above it. So for me, the idea becomes very simple:
【Go long above 82,800, go short below 82,800.】
If you went long above but failed to hold, cutting losses early is more reasonable.
If you went short below and have floating profits, don't rush; pull a cost stop loss and continue watching the price reaction in the 【82,500—82,800】 range.
If the 1-hour, 2-hour, and 4-hour charts can't hold above, what's the reason not to short?
Is it because you think there are still too many short positions to be squeezed out above, or because you are holding longs yourself?
You can fool your brothers, even say: "I'm actually just a small loss, it doesn't matter."
But after closing Telegram, open your account.
【Will your account lie to you, or are you just pretending?】
The above content is only personal market analysis and trading thought records, not any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation.$BTC Gold Market Outlook: High Interest Rates Suppress, Central Bank Gold Purchases Provide Support, Volatile Pattern Remains Difficult to Change
Risk Warning: Market review only, does not constitute investment advice
Currently, gold is caught in a very typical contradictory situation: short-term suppressed by Federal Reserve interest rates, medium to long-term supported by central bank gold purchases at the bottom, making it difficult to experience a unilateral large rise or fall, mainly fluctuating within a wide range.
Two Core Competing Forces
1. U.S. inflation stickiness remains, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have not completely dissipated, U.S. Treasury yields remain high. Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; the higher the interest rates, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold, which suppresses gold price upside.
2. The U.S. dollar strengthens temporarily, directly pressuring gold priced in dollars.
As long as the Federal Reserve does not release a clear signal of rate cuts, gold will find it difficult to start a new major upward wave.
Bullish Factors
1. Global central banks continue to purchase gold, and the long-term demand for de-dollarization in various countries provides bottom support. Large drops will attract allocation funds to enter and absorb, limiting deep downside space.
2. Geopolitical conflicts and global fiscal debt risks can trigger safe-haven buying at any time. Once risks erupt, gold will rapidly surge.
Trading Reminders
1. Do not mistake short-term rebounds for reversals. Gold is currently in a volatile market, not a unilateral bull market.
2. In the long term, the logic of central bank gold purchases remains. Large drops can be considered for phased accumulation; but avoid heavy positions for bottom-fishing in the short term, wait for support confirmation.
3. Gold and BTC have emotional linkage: gold strengthening as a safe haven indirectly benefits the crypto market; however, gold is dominated by the Federal Reserve and will not unilaterally determine BTC’s trend.$SOL
Only 24 hours remain until the mainnet upgrade, yet there is not a trace of front-running bulls on the market.
According to the established roadmap, the Solana Alpenglow mainnet upgrade is scheduled to activate officially on October 21. This upgrade aims to move voting off-chain to significantly reduce confirmation times. However, in the secondary market, funds have not surged in advance to front-run; instead, they show extreme caution and defense—SOL price has narrowed sharply between 103.54 and 106.22, continuously tugging around the 105 mark. Contract funding rates have even shown a slight discount, indicating that large investors would rather miss out on gains than bear the network volatility risk during the upgrade process. SOL OKX spot is at 105.25.
The volume contraction and sideways trading before a major technical upgrade often conceal a trap for bulls and bears to shift the trend. Since the nominal TPS on the public dashboard will plunge sharply after the upgrade due to the removal of voting transactions, retail investors' cognitive biases are easily exploited by bears to suppress prices at the moment of implementation. I judge that before the upgrade is completed and the network's stable operation is verified, SOL lacks the momentum to break above 108. The market will most likely range widely between 103 and 106.5; if it breaks below 103, it may trigger short-term defensive selling to retest the 100 level. Overriding condition: if spot volume surges and closes above 108.5 within the next 24 hours, this neutral outlook will be invalidated.
$SOL
#主网升级
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 4.76% "Indiscriminate Mass Sell-off" — Foreign and Institutional Investors Are Exiting, Retail Investors Are Buying
The KOSPI opened down 0.6% today, then plunged sharply, hitting an intraday low of 5,493.24 points, with the decline expanding to 4.76%, breaking below the 5,500-point mark. As of 11 a.m., the index was still down nearly 3%, around 5,596 points.
Who is selling off? The data is very clear. Foreign investors net sold 636.7 billion KRW on the main board, institutions net sold 467 billion KRW (including a reduction of 241.8 billion by financial investors and 159 billion by pension funds). Individual investors net bought 838.8 billion KRW, attempting to support the market. Eugene Investment & Securities analysts bluntly stated: "This sell-off is indiscriminate, with almost all stocks falling, making the market appear very fragile."
It's not just semiconductors dragging the market down. SK Hynix fell 3.68%, Samsung Electronics dropped 1.83%, but Hyundai Motor declined 4.60%, Kia fell 3.10% — this is a cross-sector systemic sell-off.
Trading reference: Foreign and institutional investors jointly sold over 1.1 trillion KRW, while retail investors' 800 billion KRW buying only delayed the decline rather than reversing the trend. Pay attention to the 5,500-point level, which has already been tested as a psychological barrier during the session. $SKHYNIX $SOPH #芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Looking at SpaceX's financial report, what I most want to analyze is the billing of Starlink customers.
How many new users have been added is certainly important, but how much each user is willing to pay and how much it costs to serve these users ultimately determines what the company can retain after scaling up.
If user growth is rapid but average revenue keeps declining, the reasons need to be clearly understood. It could be that low-priced plans have opened new markets, or that the customer structure has changed. The former may lead to larger long-term business, but how long it takes to recoup the investment cannot be ignored.
Household users and aviation or maritime customers have different service needs. Even with the same number of users, revenue and service costs may not be the same. Judging growth quality solely by total subscriber numbers can be too crude.
I admire SpaceX's ability to accomplish complex engineering and understand why people are willing to pay for its future. But after going public, shareholders need to know exactly how technological advantages translate into sustained revenue.
This time, I will look at user growth, revenue per user, and business profit together. If the scale increases and the economic return per customer also improves, that growth will be more convincing to me.
Rocket launches are indeed exciting. But after watching the videos and opening the financial report, I still want to find a simple answer: can those customers who are already using the service make this business increasingly profitable?
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Institutional investors scrambled for the IPO, but the stock dropped by one-third on its first day of listing.
Today, South Korea's KOSDAQ saw the largest IPO of the year: AI infrastructure company Elice Group went public.
Background: The issue price was set at 90,500 KRW, at the upper limit of the inquiry range. Institutions subscribed 388.84 times, retail investors subscribed 408.26 times, with over 10 trillion KRW in new subscription margin pouring in.
Progress: The opening price was 75,700 KRW, down 16.4% from the issue price; intraday it dipped to 61,000 KRW, a drop approaching 33%. Market capitalization shrank from the pre-listing valuation of 1 trillion KRW to 700 billion KRW.
Impact: Elice started from AI education and mainly operates GPU data centers. The pricing was finalized on October 6, just before the recent wave of AI stock sell-offs; the listing coincided with the worst market conditions, with the KOSPI dropping over 2% the same day. Peers also faced difficulties: Nvidia-backed Firmus withdrew its $5 billion IPO plan, and Blackstone-backed AirTrunk's Singapore REIT was also delayed.
I think the key issue is not that AI demand has disappeared, but that the public market is starting to account for the private market: with trillion-level AI infrastructure investments, after deducting electricity costs, hardware replacement, and interest, how much sustainable cash flow remains?
Do you think the AI infrastructure valuation bubble is starting to burst? Or is this just a short-term emotional overreaction?
#ElicePlunges33%InKoreanIPODebut
#AIInfrastructure #IPO Deutsche Bank special reminder:
The current environment for $XAU is very much like October 2022, which was also the darkest moment during the rate hikes.
When everyone was in despair,
central banks and long-term funds quietly entered the market (and now, central banks have never stopped buying),
triggering the subsequent major bull run.
So the script is already very clear.
In the mid-term, as long as the gold price breaks through 4370, this starting gun,
programmatic buying will take full control, combined with the entry of long-term capital,
the market will completely ignite.
In short, the robots have run out of bullets, now it's time to buy tickets.
Keep an eye on 4370,
that is the lifeline where gold sounds the horn for a counterattack. Breaking news, Standard Chartered Bank, Circle, and Ripple have jointly participated in OKX's new funding round with a valuation of $25 billion. Did everyone see that?
As one of the globally systemically important banks, putting real money behind OKX's ecosystem story shows that the payment ecosystem of X Layer has a promising future.
Last year, $OKB peaked at 300u because everyone was speculating that OKX would introduce a buyback mechanism for it. Now, OKX's ecosystem is showing signs of rising, and the coin price has no bubble. I actually think the winning odds are very high now, and the potential returns are also very high.
Of course, in the race for the web2 payment ecosystem, $SOL and $BNB are also quite competitive.
Solana is designed for micro-payments with natural parameters: TPS in the thousands, single transaction fees less than a cent, and final confirmation in 400 milliseconds. High-frequency small payment scenarios are tailor-made for it. It is also leading in offline merchant partnerships, and USDC settlement volume on Solana has already surged to the top of the network.
But it has experienced several outages in the past few years, which is a major concern for enterprise-level acquiring; enterprises also worry about its risk resistance, so SOL has not yet formed a monopoly position.
BNB lacks a proper reputable identity. It has traffic, and opBNB, this layer-2 solution, reduces fees to nearly zero, fully supporting high-frequency small transactions. Its real DAU is also consistently among the top in the network.
The downside is the lack of endorsement from traditional financial institutions, its on-chain image leans towards meme and gambling, plus regulatory shadows from a couple of years ago, so enterprise clients are cautious.
In comparison, OKX is indeed the most experienced and familiar with this, making success easier to achieve All three coins are rising together, so why am I actually hesitant to be bullish?
BTC $81,991, ETH $2,410, SOL $105.18. Don't be fooled by the screen full of green: last week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net outflow of about $549 million, and SOL ETFs also continued to see outflows, showing strong institutional caution.
My judgment: this looks more like an emotional rebound after overselling rather than a trend reversal. On the macro side, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, Fed rate cut expectations fluctuate, and under the current capital game, the "pump and dump" market persists.
For BTC, first watch if it can hold above 82,300; if it falls below $81,500, beware of a pullback;
For ETH, whether it can break through 2,420 is a signal of rebound expansion, with weak follow-through evident;
For SOL, only if it stands above 106 will it turn strong in the short term; otherwise, it remains a high-volatility shakeout.
The logic of the three coins moving together: BTC sets the direction, ETH follows, SOL plays for volatility. After trading for a long time, you understand: everyone is a master when prices rise, but true skill shows when defending key levels during pullbacks. Currently, it's wise to reduce leverage and protect principal, waiting for BTC to clearly break before following. Is this wave a sign of reversal or a bull trap? Which side are you on? $BTC $ETH $ZEC SK Hynix poured cold water on the memory sector today, with OKEx's xSKHY falling from 146 all the way down to 137.9, a drop of 3.24%. This is not an ordinary pullback.
The driver is valuation cuts: Changxin Technology plummeted 35% in a single day, directly cracking the logic of the "overseas giants' price hike cycle." The market is starting to settle accounts—SK Hynix has fallen nearly 59% from its peak, Samsung has also dropped over 40%; today, the Korean stock market was even more brutal, with KOSPI closing down 3.73%. SK Hynix's Korean stock intraday fell over 7%, and Samsung dropped nearly 3%.
Looking at the chart: OKEx xSKHY current price is 137.89, MA5 at 137.77 just broke below MA30, the super trend at 140.11 has turned from support into overhead resistance, RSI at 41 is weakening, and the previous low at 135.74 is the last hurdle. My judgment: this is a double hit from sentiment and valuation, not a collapse of supply-demand logic—Citigroup is still saying today that memory supply tightness will continue until 2028 and maintains a buy rating. Bulls and bears are actually deadlocked around 137.
Watch two signals: whether the previous low at 135.74 can hold; if it holds, it’s the starting point for an oversold rebound. Also watch if the super trend at 140.11 can be reclaimed; if not, any rebound is considered weak, so don’t rush to catch a falling knife.
#SKHynix #MemoryChips #Semiconductors
Not investment advice, DYOR恐惧贪婪指数从53回到59，一周内从63跌到53、又回到59。情绪为什么比资金恢复得更快？ 先说新闻。情绪侧：恐惧贪婪指数从53回升到59（前值53），回到"偏贪婪"的门槛；资金侧：ETF连续三天小幅净流入（+1,640万、+1,630万、+1,620万），但5日仍净流出3.271亿、10日净流出7.3亿；价格侧：BTC报82,493.7美元，24小时 +1.62%、近一周 -0.28%；宏观侧：美元指数101.82、黄金4,196.0。 再看资金影响。情绪指数的构成里包含动量、波动率、社交热度与搜索趋势，这些成分对短期价格变化非常敏感——一根阳线就能让动量分项跳升，几条讨论就能让热度分项上升。而ETF净流入反映的是真实的申购赎回，决策链条更长、变化更慢。所以情绪总是比资金"快"，这在反弹初期尤其明显。 对BTC的含义：情绪快速修复本身是好事（说明恐慌没有扩散），但不能作为趋势确认。真正可靠的组合是"情绪回暖 + 资金持续净流入 + 价格创出更高的高点"。现在前两条刚出现苗头，第三条还没出现。 我接下来盯四个指标：一是恐惧贪婪指数能否稳定在60以上；二是ETF单日流入能否放大；三是BTETFs have lost 900 million in two weeks, and BlackRock quietly bought 660 million yesterday; both longs and shorts are taking hits
"Uptober" really fell flat this time. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 910 million USD in two weeks, accumulating a net outflow of 615 million USD since October began. The promised October rally was completely dashed. But yesterday the scene suddenly changed: BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day net inflow of 665 million USD, more than all ETFs combined. Fidelity and Grayscale are still withdrawing, but BlackRock alone flipped the table. One day's inflow can't make up for two weeks of bleeding; don't get an internal high just because you see red numbers.
Liquidation data is even more brutal. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 188 million USD, with longs liquidated for 104 million USD and shorts for 84.12 million USD. On the Ethereum side, a giant whale shorted at 2366 last night, but this morning's rebound to 2409 triggered liquidation of 2765 ETH, with a position value of 6.66 million USD. The losses haven't been recovered yet, and the liquidation price for the remaining 11,000 short ETH is hanging at 2419. The shorts didn't win; they just didn't die completely.
BTC is now stuck around 81,200, narrowing between 80.2K and 83.3K, with daily candles converging to the end; a breakout could happen anytime. The new whale's cost basis is near 77K, buying momentum is slowing, and the strength can't hold 80K. ETH is weaker, with selling pressure above 2400, and 2345 is the next support to hide behind.
In short: ETFs are bleeding, BlackRock is bottom-fishing, whales shorting got counterattacked, and both longs and shorts are filling holes. If 80.2K doesn't hold, the next support is the new whale's cost line at 77K. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins $SUI Daily In-Depth Review of a Coin Cycle:
Let's start with the short term: Currently hovering around 1, the 4-hour chart is just stuck at EMA25, and RSI has returned to a neutral 50. Resistance above is at 1.03 and 1.3, support below at 0.98, then further down at 0.9. Open interest has shrunk from 44 million contracts at the beginning of October to 32 million, indicating funds are withdrawing; without volume in the short term, it's hard to push the price up.
A detail to note about the capital flow: The retail long-short ratio has reached 2.47, with 71% of people going long, but the spot market has seen a net outflow of 135 million over 30 days and 40 million over 7 days. In other words, retail investors are bottom-fishing while institutions are selling off, making it difficult for a big rally in the short term.
From a cycle perspective:
On the weekly chart, from the historical high of 5.37, it has halved twice, dropping 81%, and is now just sitting on the weekly EMA25 (0.96). The weekly EMA66 is still pressing down at 1.37, so the major trend hasn't reversed; this is a bear market bottom consolidation phase, not a primary uptrend.
Core logic: SUI and SOL both belong to the Move-based public chains with solid technical foundations, but this narrative hasn't taken center stage this round. SOL has already moved up, while SUI is still grinding at the bottom; the ecosystem is developing slowly and lacks sufficient capital recognition.
Don't bottom-fish in the short term; until institutions return, it's just retail investors fighting among themselves. For the long term, the area around 1 has been deeply discounted, so entering in batches is fine, but don't expect an immediate breakout; the bottoming process will take a long time.
Just a personal opinion; trading is ultimately self-reliance
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ First of all, I do hold quite a bit of $TSLA and $SPCX, and I've always been very optimistic about the big game Musk is playing. But after just reading ARK's latest Tesla valuation model today, I really can't help but vent: this projection is a bit too outrageous. 🧐
ARK predicts that by 2031, Tesla's stock could reach $4,400 per share, with a bull market even seeing $5,000, corresponding to a terrifying market cap of $17.5 trillion! 🤔
📝 Let's first look at how ARK calculated this:
• How many units sold: by 2031, they expect to sell 8.1 million Robotaxis, 10.2 million regular electric vehicles, 1 million Optimus robots, plus 2,278 GWh of energy storage.
• Where the money comes from: total revenue is projected to reach $1.45 trillion. Robotaxi accounts for the largest share, contributing $753 billion (52%); vehicle sales account for $320 billion; Optimus $212 billion; energy storage $163 billion.
• How exaggerated the profits are: EBITDA hits $902 billion, with a profit margin as high as 61%!
• Core valuation support: Robotaxi alone accounts for 80% of Tesla's valuation, Optimus 14%. ARK believes the humanoid robot market can create a $26 trillion market, which is more than what they assign to #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $ZEC $LABLAB is still barely alive today, with trading volume shrinking to the million-level range, and the price is tightly suppressed by the super trend line. The top ten addresses heavily control the supply, and the chip structure is extremely poor. This kind of volume-less slow decline is a classic trash time; every slight rebound is just to trick retail investors into taking the bag, with no trading value at all. Firmly avoid.
$APR APR rose a few points today, but look at the position — it has halved from the previous high, and this rebound hasn't even recovered half of the previous big bearish candle. The MACD barely forms a golden cross below zero, both lines are still deep underwater, and the super trend line is far overhead. This is a dead cat bounce after a deep drop; big money has already fled, and only retail investors are trying to save themselves. This kind of bull trap rebound will trap anyone who chases it.
$GRVT GRVT rose thirteen points today, this is true strength. I checked the reasons behind its surge, and it's not baseless. First, the market maker's cost range was exposed, so the manipulator has a need to rescue the price; second, the previous short positions were extremely crowded, with deeply negative funding rates, and this violent surge triggered a short squeeze, creating a short squeeze flywheel; third, after its July TGE, it was intensively listed on nearly ten major exchanges, with only a bit over 10% circulating supply, making the float very light, so even a slight push from capital can make it fly.
My view is straightforward: LAB is stagnant water, APR is a trap, only GRVT has capital involvement and a clear short squeeze logic. But remember, if you really want to participate, you must bring a hard stop loss; don't be the bag holder for the market maker. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点