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With continuous monitoring of single kills, the main holders of MarsCoin basically can no longer control the market!
Let's take a look at the changes in the top 40 MarsCoin holders' addresses data on 8.21!
1: Pancake inflow 2.52%
Binance Alpha inflow 15.72%
2: Top 10 addresses: 1 person increased position, 1 person decreased position
Top 20 addresses: 2 people increased position, 1 person decreased position
Top 40 addresses: 3 people decreased position, 2 new entries
$MarsCoin Daily Key Summary:
Compared to 3 days ago, the price of MarsCoin has not dropped significantly, but the data structure changes are becoming more complex. First, Alpha continues to flow in. Among the top 40 addresses, 5 people decreased their positions, but the amounts are small, so their impact on the market is minimal. Three people increased their positions, and the amounts they added are relatively large, which should have some influence on the market. The market may still hold steady here, roughly 30% related to these 3 people increasing their positions. It appears that 2 addresses are new entries, but in reality, one person transferred in a long time ago and is just now counted as entering, and one person slightly increased their position and is counted as entering. Basically, this has no impact on the market. Corresponding to the three addresses that dropped out of the top 40 rankings, two have already liquidated their holdings, and one has only half of the position left. Overall, compared to 3 days ago, many top addresses still decreased their positions, and the market has not stabilized. The number of people increasing positions is relatively#BTC accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over? $BTC $ETH Complete analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) market
Risk warning: This is only a market logic review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and trade 24/7 nonstop.
Current market overview
After reaching a historical high of $126,198 in October 2025, Bitcoin entered a major correction with a maximum drawdown exceeding 50%, hitting a yearly low of $57,800.
The market has become highly institutionalized, with US spot ETFs becoming the main channel for institutional allocation; capital inflows are no longer unidirectional and continuous, alternating between inflows and outflows, with incremental momentum significantly weaker compared to the 2025 bull market. Recently, there has been a phase rebound driven by short covering and ETF capital returning, causing a pulse surge, but the medium-term big picture remains in a consolidation and bottom-building phase.
Key price levels
• Strong resistance zone: $69,000–$73,000
2021 historical high plus a large concentration of trapped positions. Breaking through does not equal a valid breakout; it requires 2–3 consecutive daily candlesticks to close above to be considered effective; above that, a larger resistance lies at $83,000–$85,000, where a large amount of selling pressure to unlock positions accumulates.
• Core support: $60,000–$62,000
On-chain holding cost center, medium- to long-term capital absorption range.
• Extreme bottom: $57,000–$58,000
Yearly low and 200-week moving average resonance point; once effectively broken, it will open a deeper downside space.
Distinction: Short-term rapid spikes are largely due to contract short squeezes; sustainable major rallies require spot capital (ETF, on-chain whales) cooperation. Rallies driven solely by leverage are prone to false breakouts and pullbacks.
Bullish logic
1. Halving supply contraction, long-term coin lock-up
The fourth halving has taken effect, sharply reducing new mining output; Bitcoin inventories on exchanges remain at multi-year lows, with many long-term holders keeping cold wallets untouched, reducing circulating spot supply and suppressing long-term selling pressure.
2. Institutional base has formed
Spot ETFs bring traditional financial capital into the market; even with capital flowing in and out repeatedly, a long-term allocation base has been established; family offices and listed companies include Bitcoin in their major asset allocations, no longer a purely retail speculative market.
3. Macro liquidity inflection expectation
Bitcoin is a non-yielding risk asset; the 10-year US Treasury real yield is the most important macro switch. When real yields decline, risk-free returns decrease, enhancing Bitcoin’s allocation appeal; if US inflation continues to fall and the Fed starts cutting rates, it will bring major catalysts.
4. Regulatory narrative catalyst
Progress in US crypto legislation and marginal improvements in the regulatory environment will stimulate the market in phases.
Core bearish risks
1. High real interest rates are the biggest suppression
US Treasury real yields running high increase the opportunity cost of holding non-cash-flow Bitcoin. CPI inflation rebound and hawkish Fed signals can directly suppress prices, the most critical constraint in 2026.
2. Insufficient ETF fund sustainability
ETFs often experience large phase redemptions; a single day of large inflows does not indicate a trend reversal and requires multiple days of fund confirmation; rebounds driven solely by contract leverage have poor sustainability.
3. Heavy trapped position selling pressure
A large amount of high-entry cost positions are accumulated in the $69,000–$85,000 range; when price returns to cost lines, large-scale unlocking sales occur, and each upward breakout must digest selling pressure.
4. Derivatives leverage backlash
Rallies tend to generate high leverage; once the trend reverses, cascading long liquidations will amplify the decline.
5. Black swan risks
US regulatory tightening, geopolitical conflicts, and exchange security incidents can cause severe volatility.
Three scenario simulations
1. Base scenario (highest neutral probability): Range-bound consolidation
Trading back and forth within the $60,000–$73,000 large box. Waiting for US inflation and Fed policy signals, and for ETFs to resume sustained net inflows.
There will be multiple pulse breakouts above $69,000, mostly false breakouts, followed by pullbacks into the box to fully digest trapped positions.
2. Optimistic scenario: Effective upward breakout
Trigger conditions: US inflation significantly declines, rate cut expectations rise; Bitcoin ETFs see multiple days of large net inflows; on-chain whales continue accumulating.
Daily close above $73,000 opens upward space, next target $83,000–$85,000.
3. Pessimistic scenario: Deep downside
Inflation rebounds, Fed maintains high rates; ETFs see sustained large net outflows; global risk assets collectively sell off. Effective break below $60,000 support tests the extreme bottom at $57,000–$58,000.
BTC vs ETH comparison
• BTC: Store of value attribute, relatively lower beta, simple and clear institutional consensus, stronger bear market resilience.
• ETH: Infrastructure + staking yield, higher beta, greater upside elasticity but deeper downside drawdowns, rarely has an independent bull market, mostly follows BTC’s catch-up rally.
Key tracking indicators
1. US 10-year Treasury real yield (macro master switch)
2. US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net fund inflows/outflows
3. On-chain: exchange BTC balances, MVRV metric, short-term holder cost
4. CPI inflation, Fed officials’ speeches and dot plots
5. Derivatives: perpetual contract positions, long/short liquidation data
Summary
Bitcoin is now a risk asset deeply involved by institutions.
Halving is a long-term supply logic and cannot solely drive a major bull market; US Treasury real yields (macro liquidity) are the overall market master switch.
Short-term pulse rallies can be created by contract short squeezes; medium- to long-term trend rallies require the synergy of declining US Treasury real yields and incremental spot capital.
Do not mistake price piercing resistance as a breakout; a reliable signal requires holding above, volume expansion, and capital confirmation. Just said this morning "no new money coming in," and by noon the data slapped me in the face.
This morning I posted an article saying this rally is short covering, not new money entering. Reason: perpetual open interest didn't rise, no one willing to chase longs at a premium.
Then I opened CoinGlass at noon, and my face swelled.
Open interest rose 10% in one day. From $49 billion to $54 billion, a $5 billion increase in a day.
What is this called? It's called leverage coming back. This morning I said "no one is chasing," and by noon $5 billion in new positions squeezed in. My mouth is more accurate than Sandisk's stop-loss line—say one thing, the opposite happens.
But don't rush to laugh at me. Look at the full data first.
On the ETF side, net inflows exceeded $1 billion in three days. On August 19 alone, $517 million, the largest single day since May, with BlackRock absorbing $280 million by itself. Throughout August, no single trading day saw net outflows from US spot ETFs.
On-chain whales are also moving, net increasing holdings by 43,000 BTC. 43,000 BTC, at the current price of 74,000, equals $3.2 billion.
So new money is indeed coming in. Not a guess, but on the ledger. I admit I was wrong this morning.
But did you notice one detail?
Exchange stablecoin balances have been shrinking. USDT and other "ammunition" are withdrawing from exchanges.
On one side, leverage is rushing in with +10%, on the other, ammunition is decreasing. I've only seen this combo in one type of market phase—the latter half of a rally.
The first half is cheap chips changing hands; the latter half is leverage funds taking over. The more people relay, the faster the run, but the baton eventually drops.
The Fear & Greed Index is 73 today. Five days ago it was 27, now 73. A 46-point jump in five days—the fastest emotional shift since 2026. What does 73 mean? Extreme greed. Extreme greed is never the top, but those extremely greedy always say "this time is different."
I know some will scold me. This morning I said don't chase, at noon I said leverage is relaying, what do you mean?
What I mean is: I acknowledge the direction, the trend has turned bullish, I won't short at 74,000. But chasing longs at 74,000? ETF cost is 82,465, BlackRock 82,206, both still underwater. If you chase at 74,000, there's a line of big players averaging 82,000 waiting to break even and run.
To put it plainly, the current market is: new money coming in, ammunition decreasing, emotions boiling. The direction is right, but the entry point is bad. People entering at bad points still lose money in a bull market—this is a lesson I bought with 60% of my capital on Sandisk.
I'm still not moving today. Last week's shorts got slapped, this morning the data slapped me again, my face is already too swollen to look at. But even with a swollen face, I won't chase 74,000.
Waiting for what? Waiting for a pullback to 69,000-70,000, or for ammunition to replenish. Whichever comes first, that's when I enter. $BTC $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Brothers, everyone is talking about $BTC breaking 70,000 and short liquidations, but there's something more worth pondering that's being overlooked—Bitcoin is "aging" at an unprecedented speed.
3.56 million BTC have been unmoved for over ten years, accounting for 17.7% of the circulating supply, valued at over $240 billion. For every 6 BTC, 1 is extremely long-term dormant. In August, the movement of "sleeping coins" surged 5 times, with an average daily transfer of 220 BTC, mostly old coins from 2013-2014. Even addresses from 2011 woke up—8.54 BTC, worth $120 back then, now valued at $538,000, a 46,000-fold increase.
17.7% means a large amount of coins have permanently exited circulation—lost private keys, forgotten wallets. The actual tradable supply is far less than the numbers you see.
On August 20, US debt surpassed $40 trillion, with annual interest exceeding $1.1 trillion, more than twice the military budget. On the same day, BTC returned to 70,000. As debt servicing costs erode fiscal space, Bitcoin's "non-sovereign hedge" narrative is turning from slogan to reality.
On-chain data tells us something different from the candlestick charts: supply is tightening, coins are aging, holders are becoming more steadfast. These sleeping coins—are they lost, forgotten, or waiting for a higher price? Let's discuss in the comments.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC Anthropic这次IPO，最值得关注的可能不是“能融多少钱”，而是一个更大的问题： 华尔街究竟愿意给AI公司多高的价格？ 最新消息显示，Anthropic正在加速推进上市准备，最快可能在8月底公开IPO文件。需要注意的是，它早在6月1日就已经向美国SEC秘密递交了S-1草案，所以现在讨论的重点不是“有没有IPO计划”，而是什么时候把这场交易真正摆到公开市场面前。 而市场给出的想象空间非常大。 有消息称，Anthropic的IPO募资规模可能匹配甚至超过SpaceX此前创下的750亿美元纪录。如果真的实现，这将不只是一次普通科技公司上市，而是AI资本狂潮进入公开市场的一次压力测试。 一、发生了什么？Anthropic已经不是过去那家AI创业公司 先看最关键的数据。 Anthropic在今年5月完成65亿美元融资后，公司估值已经达到约9650亿美元，较2月约3800亿美元的估值大幅提升。 更夸张的是收入增长。 据最新报道，Anthropic截至7月底的年化收入运行率已经达到约650亿美元，而今年5月还是约470亿美元。换句话说，短短几个月，收入运行速度又上了一个台阶。 这也是资本市场愿ZEC’s rally looks impressive, but the risks are hard to ignore: developer continuity, concentrated hash power/holdings, and heavy derivatives leverage all raise questions about decentralization and sustainability. ETF interest could help, but non-binding capital commitments aren’t enough to remove those structural risks.Market Quick Report
Bitcoin is priced at $74,809.60, up 7.88% in 24 hours. The amplitude closed at 9.44 percentage points, indicating considerable volatility.
The 24-hour high was $75,779.40, the low was $69,233.00, with a trading volume of $1.07B, showing active turnover between bulls and bears.
Across the market, 121 assets rose while 29 fell, with 80.7% showing gains, clearly reflecting market sentiment.
In the exchange token sector, focus on $OKB; trading volume is relatively low, so watch if smart money makes a move.
In the DeFi sector, focus on $UNI; volatility has narrowed, wait for a directional choice before acting.
Top three gainers are $ENA +35.03%, $PEOPLE +32.50%, and $BOME +29.57%; smart money has already placed their bets.
Top three losers are $AEON -9.39%, $GRVT -9.33%, and $XCBRS -4.38%; profit-taking traders have abruptly exited.
Core judgment: The number of rising and falling assets sets the tone; the leaders in gains and losses set the direction. Don’t act against smart money.
This is public market data and does not constitute investment advice; make your own judgment.
That’s all for now; the decision is in your hands. Regarding the CLARITY Act, my judgment is simple:
In the short term, it most likely won't pass, but it's not that important.
1. The bill is important, but not mandatory.
The core is to use legislation to clearly define the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC.
However, the Senate has been stuck for months, with ongoing debates about DeFi and interest-bearing stablecoins, plus the midterm elections, so the time window is actually very short.
So I’m not too concerned about whether it will pass or not.
2. What’s really worth watching is the probability fluctuations.
Trump’s statements, the SEC’s compliant ICO framework, and CFTC Chairman Selig’s remarks could all cause short-term shifts in the probability of passage.
I opened a position within 20% at @bagel_win, and now it’s back to 28%. 🎉
So:
Don’t bet on the outcome, watch the probability.
3. Regulation has actually already been preemptively filled in.
The SEC’s compliant ICO channel essentially paves a path for tokens:
Securities → shedding securities attributes → commodities
The CFTC is also pushing exchanges, brokers, market makers, and perpetual platforms into the regulatory system, and Hyperliquid will most likely follow this path.
Along with token taxonomy, asset classification, issuance, and trading regulation are all gradually being implemented.
So to put it plainly:
Even if CLARITY doesn’t pass, regulation won’t stop.
Of course—what if it does pass? Then just consider it as having positioned yourself early. 😏
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
$BTC This round of collective cryptocurrency rally is not merely driven by speculative capital but is the result of the combined effects of macro liquidity, overseas regulatory expectations, and market structure, with the uptrend supported by clear fundamental factors. The improvement in macro liquidity is the underlying driver of this rebound. The U.S. Treasury has expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, effectively lowering long-term U.S. bond yields, marginally easing market liquidity conditions. The valuation pressure on risk assets has been significantly alleviated, providing upside space for highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Overseas regulatory expectations have warmed up, substantially restoring market sentiment. On August 18, the U.S. SEC announced proposed rules for crypto assets, establishing a new exemption mechanism and safe harbor framework to regulate certain crypto asset issuance and financing activities. On August 19, the White House met with crypto industry executives to fully promote the legislative process of the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act." Regulation has shifted from ambiguous tightening to rule-based implementation, completely reversing market pessimism. The short squeeze in the market has amplified the rally. After a prolonged period of market consolidation and adjustment, many investors were bearish on the outlook, with short positions continuously accumulating and becoming highly crowded $BTC $ETH $SOL #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 比特币这轮上涨，真正值得讨论的已经不是“涨了多少”，而是一个更关键的问题： 到底是谁把BTC推上去的？ 如果只是空头爆仓带来的短期逼空，那么这波上涨可能来得快、去得也快；但如果背后已经出现持续的现货资金，尤其是机构资金重新进场，那么7万美元可能不是终点，而只是行情重新定价的起点。 从目前的数据来看，我更倾向于把这轮行情定义为： “现货资金回暖+空头挤压+宏观预期改善”的混合行情。 也就是说，它不是单纯的逼空，但短线加速确实有明显的逼空成分。 一、BTC为什么突然加速？ 这次行情的导火索并不复杂。 8月20日，BTC一度冲到 7.28万美元附近，单日涨幅超过6%，创下6月以来的新高。与此同时，美国财政部宣布扩大长期国债回购规模，市场认为这可能缓解长期利率压力，风险资产情绪随之改善。特朗普在白宫加密货币活动上再次推动《CLARITY Act》，也进一步降低了市场对美国加密监管的担忧。 但宏观消息只是“点火”。 真正让BTC加速的，是市场本身已经积累了大量空头。 当BTC重新站上7万美元以后，空头的止损和强平开始变成新的买盘。 8月19日，BTC单日上涨#BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
I am Brother Ci. BTC broke through 75,000, and the low volatility state was completely broken. The 24-hour high reached above 75,000, with shorts concentrated on closing positions, amplifying the gains. The entire network's liquidations once approached $3 billion, with shorts accounting for the vast majority.
The capital side is simultaneously recovering. On August 19, the combined net inflow of US BTC and ETH spot ETFs was about $706 million, with BTC around $517 million and ETH about $189 million. Continuous net inflows into ETFs over multiple days are the core incremental factor of this rally. Institutions have been continuously buying above 65,000; the buying is not short-term speculative funds but allocation-type capital entering the market.
The current divergence lies in the nature of this rally. If it is a short-term acceleration after a short squeeze, then profit-taking at high levels and leverage re-accumulation will amplify volatility, and the market may quickly top out. If it is a trend repair brought by ETF and spot buying flows returning, then this rally still has room, and pullbacks are buying opportunities.
The key lies in whether subsequent trading volume and stablecoin liquidity can keep up. If incremental funds continue to enter, the short squeeze market may switch to a trend upward. If spot support is insufficient, high-level profit-taking and leverage re-accumulation will amplify volatility. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Brother Ci has finished speaking; you savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL This round of $BTC rally seems like a price breakout
but is actually the result of three core forces pushing simultaneously.
First, the U.S. Treasury plans to expand long-term Treasury repurchases,
which the market interprets as a marginal improvement in liquidity.
The weakening of the dollar index benefits risk assets collectively.
Second, on August 19, U.S. spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $517 million,
with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $285 million in spot funds, clearly indicating a capital return.
Third, in the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated over $3.2 billion,
with a large number of short positions being continuously swept out, creating a typical short squeeze scenario.Fundamental Research Report $TRX / TRON (Established/Litecoin lineage) $3.20
Essentially: TRON ($TRX) comprehensive score 54/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project overview: TRON (token $TRX), an established project in the Litecoin lineage track. Focuses on Tron network and stablecoin settlement. Competes with ETH and EOS. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, with no user data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing per PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales per whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration per API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially, moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): circulating market cap TRON $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, EOS undisclosed. FDV TRON $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, EOS undisclosed. Annual revenue TRON $2.00M, ETH undisclosed, EOS undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users TRON undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, EOS undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario doubles revenue, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 54/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Tracking metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. If core financial indicators deviate more than 30%, conclusions need reassessment.
Fundamentals covered here, the rest is up to the market.
#FundamentalResearch #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit🚨 The real Bitcoin bull market might have to wait for this signal to appear.
Many people only focus on $BTC's price in USD.
But what I'm paying more attention to now is:
BTC / Nasdaq Ratio.
This indicator doesn't measure whether Bitcoin has risen,
but rather—
whether Bitcoin can truly "outperform the US stock market."
Since the peak in 2025,
BTC / Nasdaq Ratio once plunged about 64%.
Interestingly, similar sharp crashes also happened in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
And now:
BTC / Nasdaq has rebounded about 15% from the bottom.
But don't rush to call a bull market yet.
Because the real key hasn't been broken through:
🎯 BTC / Nasdaq = 3.0
As long as the ratio stays below 3.0,
it means capital still prefers Nasdaq,
and Bitcoin hasn't truly regained market dominance.
But if BTC / Nasdaq officially breaks above 3.0 and holds steady—
things will be completely different.
That means:
Bitcoin starts outperforming tech stocks.
Capital shifts back toward Crypto.
BTC changes from "rising with risk assets" to "leading the market."
The real big move
often doesn't start when everyone begins shouting bull market.
But when—
Bitcoin starts outperforming everyone again.
So from now on, I only watch one number:
3.0.
Breaking it could be the true start of this $BTC rally.👀Current BTC market situation, I still have remaining positions personally, and I plan to prepare two strategies:
(1) STH-RP right-side confirmation: If BTC can hold above the short-term holder real cost price STH-RP, then follow the trend on the right side.
(2) After recently backtesting various data models, the reason I still have 40% of my position unfilled is that I can't let go of the traditional four-year halving cycle in my heart: in past halving cycles, the MVRV trend clearly overlapped. Currently, August 23 to the end of August is an important observation window. If BTC does not show a significant pullback during this period, it indicates that this cycle is deviating from the traditional four-year cycle structure.
(3) Another important reason is that in the traditional four-year cycle, the time from top to bottom is basically one year. By this calculation, early October would be the BTC bottom. However, now that institutions have entered, the cycle rhythm may really be deviating from the traditional four-year cycle structure. By the end of this year, it will be clear whether this cycle has changed.
(Purely personal crypto trading sharing, not investment advice, all bear their own profits and losses) #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
The crypto market's surge looks fierce, and everyone's wondering how long this rally can last and whether there will be funds willing to take over later?
BTC rose above $75,000 within 24 hours, triggering massive liquidations, and ETF funds are also flowing back. But this looks more like a typical short squeeze triggered by forced liquidations. After leverage is mechanically pushed up, if the subsequent trading volume and stablecoin liquidity don't keep up, the selling pressure at the top will come down hard, and a sharp shakeout could happen at any time.
The policy environment is indeed strong. Trump just held a meeting at the White House calling on Congress to pass the Clarity Act, clearly defining regulatory boundaries. Coupled with his family's huge investments in the crypto sector, this policy foundation is solid, and the industry has basically said goodbye to the previous risk of administrative crackdowns.
My forecast for the market:
Short term: be cautious about chasing highs
Short squeeze rallies easily overheat sentiment; once volume shrinks, there's a high probability of a pullback to test actual buy orders below.
Medium term: high-level consolidation
The bill is still being tugged in Congress; Wall Street's big money will likely do swing trading with high sells and low buys, making it hard to start a one-sided bull market directly.
Long term: extreme divergence
Assets like BTC with ETFs and policy moats are mainstream; the vast majority of altcoins without real revenue will struggle to keep up even if the market rises and may even become marginalized.
Overall, funds have entered, but sentiment remains cautious. Don't top up right after the liquidation wave; wait for spot buy orders to confirm they can absorb selling pressure before making a move.
DYOR Why is a large bullish candlestick the most likely to mislead people into thinking the trend has reversed?
After going through several bull and bear cycles, I am increasingly reluctant to call a “bull return” based on just one explosive K-line surge.
After the market consolidates for a long time and suddenly breaks out, short sellers’ stop losses and liquidations create forced buying; outside funds see the rise and chase in, pushing the price up faster and faster.
It looks like massive capital is scrambling to accumulate, but in reality, the initial surge may mainly be shorts being forced to cover.
I used to be most prone to chasing highs at such times: seeing BTC break out, ETH and altcoins collectively catching up, I thought a new cycle was confirmed.
But after the short liquidation ends, if subsequent spot funds don’t follow through, the market quickly falls back to the original range.
A true reversal can’t be judged just by how strong the rise is.
You also need to look at three details: whether the price can hold after the breakout, whether volume shrinks on the pullback, and whether real funds like ETFs or on-chain stablecoins continue to flow in. If the price is mainly driven up by contract positions and funding rates, the sharper the rise, the greater the subsequent volatility.
A large bullish candlestick only proves that buyers dominated at one moment, but it can’t prove that people will still be willing to buy in the coming weeks.
Remember: short liquidation can create a breakout, but only sustained spot buying can turn a breakout into a trend.USD1 doesn’t need to beat USDT on every trade. It needs to become the stablecoin traders keep ready.
Aster just listed a SpaceX perp, alongside gold, oil, SanDisk and SK Hynix — all priced and settled in USD1.
And honestly, the bigger story here might not be SpaceX at all.
USDT became hard to replace because traders already keep it on exchanges. Most markets are quoted in it. You don’t buy USDT before every trade — it’s already sitting there, waiting for the next one.
#DailyOrbit 回测过去两轮宽松周期，结论很直白：论弹性，BTC在DOGE面前只是个弟弟，这就是高Beta资产在流动性洪水里的爆发力。 先看2020年那轮史诗级宽松。疫情冲击下美联储紧急降息150个基点加无限QE，BTC从3月低点5300多美元涨到2021年高点6.9万美元，一年约12倍，已经很夸张了吧？可同期的DOGE呢，从0.003美元附近一路干到0.74美元，接近200倍的涨幅，$BTC 的弹性在$DOGE 面前几乎可以忽略不计。流动性洪水先灌满BTC这个主池子，溢出效应随后冲进小市值山寨，DOGE就是最大的承接者。 再看2024年开启的这轮。9月首降50个基点，BTC从6.1万美元冲到10万上方，半年约六成涨幅；DOGE同期从0.1美元附近拉到0.48美元，又是接近4倍的差距，跑赢BTC毫无悬念。 规律清晰得很：降息周期里BTC是定盘星，决定行情方向，但弹性倍数永远属于高Beta小盘。原理也简单，同样的增量资金，撬动2000亿市值和2万亿市值，效果能一样吗？ 当然话得说回来，高Beta是把双刃剑，涨时是火箭，跌时也是自由落体，DOGE从0.74跌回0.05的历史还热乎着。降息周期看多DOGE弹The more useful question is not whether BTC’s move above $75,000 began as a squeeze, but whether demand can persist after forced buying fades. Nearly $3B in estimated crypto short liquidations explains part of the speed; roughly $706M of combined US spot BTC and ETH ETF inflows on Aug 19, including $517M for BTC, gives the move a firmer spot-flow backdrop.
My read: this can develop into a trend recovery, but confirmation requires volume and stablecoin liquidity to keep pace. Otherwise, profit-taking and rebuilt leverage may turn the breakout into a sharper two-way market. Not advice, just analysis.
#BTCRallyOrSqueezeCurrently, BTC has surged to around 74,800, rising 3.14% in the past 24 hours, with a cumulative increase of over 18% this week. During the Asian session today, it reached a high of 75,785; 75,000 is considered a breakout, but how long this level can hold is uncertain.
The core catalyst remains the U.S. Treasury. On August 19, it announced raising the single purchase limit for long-term Treasury buybacks to at least $4 billion. The 30-year Treasury yield fell from 5.34%, the dollar weakened, and risk assets collectively rallied. VanEck's research director said this rally is unrelated to the CLARITY Act; it’s purely the market repricing fiscal and dollar credit—the Treasury is effectively easing, money is losing value, and Bitcoin is rising.
Short sellers were collectively liquidated. Over the past two days, short liquidations exceeded $2.7 billion, setting a record. Shorts were forced to cover, causing a stampede-like surge.
ETFs are also cooperating; since August, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of about $1.6 billion, with a single-day net inflow of $517 million on August 20. Institutions are continuously accumulating.
Technically, Ali Charts points out a strong support zone established between $61,849 and $63,111, with over 2 million BTC changing hands there. However, funding rates have hit a 20-month high; the last time similar levels appeared was in January 2025, when BTC peaked near 102,000. Short-term overbought signals are evident.
This wave is a resonance of macro factors, capital flow, and sentiment, but chasing the high is not cost-effective. Let’s first see if 75,000 can truly hold before making further moves. BTC suddenly surged back to $70,000, did Trump give it another push?
This wave of Bitcoin suddenly rushing from over $60,000 all the way back to $70,000 is definitely not just a simple technical rebound.
On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act.
The signal is very clear: the U.S. is not trying to drive crypto out, but is rushing to establish a regulatory framework.
But I think the real ignition was the liquidity expectation.
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, Treasury yields fell, and the market's liquidity expectations suddenly eased. At the same time, BTC broke through a key level, shorts started to liquidate continuously, and ETF funds flowed back in.
Policy expectations + liquidity improvement + short squeeze + ETF funds, a few sparks collided, making it hard for BTC not to rally. $BTC $ETH
But here I still want to remind you:
$70,000 is not the end, nor a reason to blindly chase the rally.
What really matters is whether BTC can hold above $70,000 and turn this level from resistance into support.
If it can hold, the story ahead may just be beginning.
If it can't hold, this might just be a beautiful "bull trap."
Personally, I’m more focused on the trading volume and capital flow in the next few days.
Breaking through is not hard; holding the level is the real skill. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX BTC 在涨，山寨却还在原地打转，这不是你该急着追高的时候。 你有没有发现，每次 BTC 一拉盘，群里就开始喊山寨季来了，但真正赚钱的没几个？ 今天 BTC 摸到 74.7K，ETH 也回到 2358 附近，盘面看着挺热闹。可你要是把镜头拉远一点，看看 BEAT、BICO、KAITO、LAB、SNDK 这些家伙，走势还是软趴趴的，像没睡醒的小猫，连个像样的反弹都撑不起来。 这轮反弹的本质，其实是流动性预期在变好，资金愿意给 BTC 和 ETH 一个笑脸。但注意了，这只是头部资产的独舞，不是全场的狂欢。真正的山寨季，得看到钱从大饼身上流出去，流到那些小市值币种里，让它们走出更高的低点，成交量也跟着放大。现在这个条件，一条都没满足。 我自己的观察是，现在市场情绪特别微妙。一边是 FOMO 在悄悄抬头，看着 BTC 涨就手痒；另一边是上一轮被套的人还在回本路上，根本不敢加仓。这种犹豫不决的状态，最容易让人做出错误的决定——比如在反弹的半山腰冲进去接盘。 板块强弱分化得很明显。BTC 和 ETH 像是班里稳定发挥的优等生，而那些弱势山寨还在及格线边缘挣扎。与其去赌它们突然爆发，不如先看清楚：资View on the current Bitcoin market
Bitcoin has broken through $74,000, and market sentiment is high, but it is not advisable to chase the price at this level.
The driving factors behind this round of rally are relatively clear: on the macro level, the U.S. Treasury's increased repurchase signals liquidity easing; on the policy level, the White House has expressed a positive stance on cryptocurrency legislation.
The resonance of these two factors has triggered this rapid surge. However, a closer look at the market's internal structure reveals obvious concerns. Derivatives trading volume far exceeds spot volume, indicating that the current market is mainly driven by leveraged funds rather than substantial buying support. On-chain data also shows that some large whale addresses have been continuously withdrawing during the rise, with smart money taking the opportunity to reduce positions.
From a risk-reward perspective, going long at the current price has limited upside and objective downside risk; going short is against the trend and also faces short squeeze risk. Comparing the two, waiting and watching is the most reasonable choice.
It is recommended to remain patient and wait for the price to pull back to confirm support or for spot volume to break through previous highs before making decisions. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks are investors with sufficient capital and clear judgment when opportunities arise. Watching $74,000 is more important than acting.Hook
What if AI makes financial privacy the next scarce asset? 👀
$ZEC is sitting around $571 while something interesting is happening beneath the surface.
🔹 Shielded transactions have reached 90% — an all-time high
🔹 Shielded supply is now 4.2M ZEC — another ATH
🔹 Yet Zcash represents just 0.6% of Grayscale’s “currency-like crypto” sector
If ZEC captured just 5% of that sector, Grayscale’s framework implies roughly 9× upside.
#DailyOrbit #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧
Spot gold has strongly returned to the historic high of 4500 USD, but as gold prices peak, the divergence between top Wall Street institutions has reached its highest point in recent years.
At this historic threshold, bullish and bearish logics clash intensely:
Bullish logic: De-dollarization and sovereign risk consensus. Global central banks continue to increase gold reserves, combined with great power competition and the need for diversified asset allocation, gold has become the strongest hard currency hedge against sovereign credit dilution. The narrative of decentralized hard assets remains unshakable.
Bearish logic: High real interest rates and overextended high valuations. Currently, long-term US Treasury yields remain high, making the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold extremely high; if the Federal Reserve cuts rates less than expected, the crowded long positions at high levels are prone to a cascade of liquidations.
Asset attribute reconstruction: Gold today is not only a safe-haven tool but is also priced by global sovereign funds as a "call option" against "debt crises and fiat currency depreciation."
At this historic 4500 USD juncture, do you firmly stand with the central banks buying into the bullish case, or with the valuation camp cautious of a potential liquidation?
$XAU $XAUT $GLD #黄金 #现货黄金 #宏观经济 #避险资产 #抗通胀$BTC breaks through 74,000, and the signals revealed by this market are completely different from before
Just after refreshing the K-line, BTC has already touched above 74,300, with a 24-hour amplitude close to 15%, reaching a high near 74,880. A few days ago, the market was still debating whether 70,000 was a phase top, but now it is directly aiming for 75,000. Such a slope is indeed rare in this year's market
The driving logic behind this wave is fundamentally different from previous rallies. In the past, it was mostly news pulses—shouting for a rise for two days, then slowly retreating. But this time, it is a resonance of multiple structural positives: on one hand, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase tool usage fell below 300 billion, meaning liquidity is substantially migrating towards risk assets; on the other hand, institutions like BlackRock have continuously increased their positions, and not just small-scale tests, but net purchases worth hundreds of millions of dollars in a single day. More importantly, on-chain data shows that long-term holder addresses have increased their holdings by more than 50,000 BTC in the past week, which cannot be explained by short-term hot money
The shorts have been thoroughly squeezed this round. Nearly 4 billion USD worth of liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 80%. But unlike previous contract-driven rallies, the perpetual contract funding rate has not surged simultaneously, indicating that derivative leverage is not overheated. The main driver of the price rise seems to be spot buying—the continuous inflow of ETFs and active accumulation by whales. This structure is usually more stable than rallies driven by contract leverage
Next, it depends on whether the supply-dense zone between 74,300 and 74,800 can successfully convert into support. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ @币圈超短王马大帅 $BTC broke through 75,000, $ETH recovered 2300, and the whole network is saying "the bull market is back." Hold on, don't rush to chase yet. First, let's see what this surge is about: • On Wednesday, $2.75 billion worth of shorts were wiped out — this is a historic short squeeze, not a value revaluation; • BTC ETF net inflow was $517 million, a 3.5-month high — institutions are buying, but they're buying the "bullish narrative," not "fundamental improvement"; • The catalysts are three things: Treasury expanding bond buybacks, SEC releasing crypto proposals, and Trump meeting a room full of crypto CEOs at the White House. All are "policy appetite," none are "demand fundamentals." Even more painful signals are right in front of us: BTC's RSI has hit 76, entering the overbought zone, the fear and greed index is 62 heading straight into greed territory, and funding rates are high — longs are crowded. Even MEXC's chief analyst openly said: this rally is "premature," the Treasury is just releasing pressure valves, but crypto is pricing it as a "regime change." Makes sense. My view is straightforward: this looks more like a policy-driven retaliatory rebound, not a new main upward wave. Don't be the bag holder in the greed zone, don't mistake a "short squeeze" for a "trend reversal." Wait for two signals: one, whether the price can hold key support without falling back; two, whether spot ETF inflows can sustain (not just a one-day spike). Once confirmed, then it's not too late to talk about a bull market. The bull market won't miss a few hours. FOMO is the truly fatal position risk in this cycle.#BTC accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
Why is it rising so sharply? Three factors have combined.
At that White House meeting, Trump announced crypto-friendly policies, shifting the US government from "regulatory crackdown" to "reserve buyer." This narrative shift is the strongest underlying logic behind this rally. Shorts have been crushed, with nearly 3 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours, shorts making up the vast majority. During the consolidation period, shorts added positions aggressively, and all the negative news was wiped out in one blow.
ETF funds are also following suit. On August 19, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of 706 million, with BTC accounting for 517 million and ETH 189 million. Institutions are buying, and they are buying continuously.
Now the question is, can 75,000 hold?
If this is a short squeeze driven by short covering, the bounce will be quick but also retreat quickly. If ETF and spot buying can continue, this wave marks the start of a trend up. Next, watch two things: whether trading volume can continue to expand, and whether stablecoin liquidity can keep up. With volume comes sustainability; without volume, it’s just a pulse.
If the 73,000 to 75,000 range can hold sideways, the next hurdle is 80,000. If it can’t hold, a pullback to 70,000 is also normal.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $SPCX has become the core of this round of smart money rotation.
A wallet with stable profits over 30 days holds about 401.6k USD in long positions of SPCX, with SPCX attribution around +147.6k USD; daily, weekly, and monthly portfolio returns are all positive, and currently there are no pending orders or recent chasing noise.
In contrast, $MSFT still has about 193k USD in long positions, but its recent daily and weekly performance is weaker, with 30d MSFT attribution around +26.2k USD.
Therefore, Tideline rotates an equal 0.65 position from MSFT to SPCX, with both gross and net unchanged. This is not leveraging, but reallocating the risk budget to a stronger signal. 最新持仓计划：$XMR 多 0.75（约 675 USD）、$SPCX 多 0.65（约 585 USD）、$GRAM 空 0.75（约 675 USD），gross 2.15，net +0.65。 调仓记录：退出 $MSFT 0.65，换成 $SPCX 0.65，总风险不变。 调仓思路：SPCX 来源当前持有约 401.6k USD 多仓，30d 标的归因约 +147.6k USD，日、周、月组合表现均为正；MSFT 来源仍盈利，但近期表现和标的归因更弱。 重点解读：$XMR 来源保留约 681.1k USD 多仓；$GRAM 来源保留约 1.418m USD 空仓，原有方向均未被破坏。 下一步：观察 SPCX 是否保持 300k USD 以上多仓、XMR 是否保持 600k USD 以上多仓、GRAM 是否保持 1.1m USD 以上空仓，并检查分阶段换仓执行。At this position, I am actually more bearish on $SPCX
Previously, $SPCX quickly rebounded from around $105, once returning above $140, but at this point, I feel the cost-performance ratio has started to decline. Although the stock price is still some distance from the historical high of $225, the current valuation remains very high.
Another issue is the supply of shares. Around August 20, about 319 million shares will be unlocked, and more early shareholders' shares will gradually enter the market afterward, which will continuously test the market's absorption capacity.
I still recognize the long-term story of SpaceX, but stocks need to be judged by their price.
At the current level of $133, I would not chase; in the short term, I am more bearish and would rather wait for it to return to a more comfortable level before considering.The recent market trend of $DOGE superficially shows that altcoins and Dogecoin have both risen, but the core driver is still Bitcoin.
When BTC moves, market risk appetite returns. It's not just a simple rise in one candlestick; it's signaling to capital that mainstream assets have buyers, and shorts are starting to cover. Thus, capital spills over from BTC to ETH, then spreads to higher volatility coins, with DOGE naturally becoming one of the most sentiment-sensitive.
Dogecoin has performed well in this rally, but I don't think it suddenly gained strong fundamentals. It's more that the market has entered a phase willing to pay for high volatility, high emotion, and high propagation. BTC stabilizes, and DOGE gets room to perform; once BTC weakens, DOGE usually falls faster than the broader market.
So don't view DOGE's rise as a standalone new cycle signal. It's more like a mirror of sentiment: when everyone starts chasing Dogecoin, it means the market is no longer satisfied with earning certainty but is seeking higher odds.
The market can be optimistic, but don't get carried away with the pace. What really matters to watch is whether Bitcoin can hold steady and whether capital continues to flow from BTC to a broader range of altcoins $BTC $DOGE
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
"US Treasury Doubles Long-Term Debt Buybacks, $40 Trillion Debt Rolled Over"
Just now! The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond surged past 5.33%, hitting a 19-year high. The US Treasury urgently slammed the table, doubling the buyback cap for long-term bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion per session for maturities between 10 and 30 years.
The moment the news broke, the 30-year Treasury yield plunged 10 basis points to 5.18%, triggering a wave of stop-losses among heavy short positions on the market.
Looking under the Treasury's hood, there is no extra cash on hand; the real money for buying back long-term bonds comes entirely from aggressively issuing short-term Treasury bills with maturities under one year.
This is a classic Treasury maneuver to reverse the situation. They break down high-interest long-term debt into short-term debt to buy some breathing room. The total US debt of $40 trillion remains unchanged, with the fiscal deficit soaring to $432.3 billion in July alone, and annual debt interest payments consuming a full $1.2 trillion.
Short-term debt interest keeps compounding daily. Once short-term financing costs are locked in by high rates, this liquidity juggling act of robbing Peter to pay Paul could at any time push the more dangerous US debt sell-off pressure back onto the table. $BTC 本轮加密市场反弹，所有人都看清了一个核心事实：比特币突破7万是情绪修复，以太坊暴涨接近20%，才是本轮行情真正的主力动作。 同样的宏观环境、同样的资金流入，ETH涨幅直接碾压BTC，从1900关口暴力拉升突破2200、2300，走出近两个月最强单日反弹。 很多散户只看懂“大盘涨、山寨跟涨”，但看不懂ETH本轮独立补涨的底层核心逻辑。 作为穿越多轮牛熊的交易者，今天一次性拆解透彻：以太坊本轮暴涨，不是跟风，是多重确定性利好共振，是资本精准布局的结果。 一、宏观流动性宽松：风险资产最大红利落地 本轮行情启动的根源，来自美元流动性边际彻底宽松。 美国财政部正式放大招：长期国债回购规模翻倍，直接压低长端美债收益率。 对于加密市场逻辑非常简单： 利率下行 → 无收益风险资产估值修复 → 资金从避险资产流出 → 涌入币市、黄金等高弹性品种。 而以太坊的属性，本身就是高弹性风险资产。 BTC偏“数字黄金、避险储值”，走势稳、反弹慢； ETH偏“科技成长、生态标的”，流动性宽松环境下，弹性、爆发力、涨幅天然碾压比特币。 这是本轮ETH跑赢BTC的宏观底层逻辑。 二、史诗级空头踩踏：ETH逼空力度远超B🔥 发生了什么？ 8月19日至21日，加密市场迎来2026年最猛烈的逼空行情： • $BTC 从6.89万美元一路飙升至最高75,770美元，创近两个月新高 • $ETH 同步站上2,340美元，单日涨幅一度接近20% • 全网爆仓超33亿美元，其中空单爆仓超30亿美元，创2021年以来最大单日空头清算纪录 超过18.3万名交易员被血洗，空头尸体铺满战场。 --- 💥 谁点燃了这把火？ 三股力量共振，空头被按在地上摩擦： 1. 白宫重磅信号 特朗普会见加密行业高管，表示政府已"彻底结束对加密货币的战争"，透露已在讨论积累"可观数量"的比特币。 2. 财政部的流动性大礼包 美国财政部宣布加倍扩大长期国债回购规模，直接压低长端收益率，释放流动性。 3. 30亿美元的空头踩踏 空头被强制平仓→被迫买入回补→价格再涨→更多空头爆仓，形成死亡螺旋。 --- 🤔 暴涨之后，暴跌会来吗？ 先泼一盆冷水： 这轮暴涨的本质是轧空（机械性反弹），而非基本面反转。30亿美元的空单被爆之后，推动价格上涨的被动买盘会自然枯竭。 ⚠️ 当前的预警信号 • 技术指标过热：比特币RSI已进入超买区（80.3） $BTC, $ETH Accelerate Upward: Who Is Building the Support?
Behind the accelerated rise, the real support being built is actually a handoff between two forces: first, the "short squeeze" rocket fuel ignited the rally; now whether it can hold depends on whether the "institutions and spot funds" can steadily take the baton.
⛽ Phase One: Short Squeeze Provides the Explosive Power
The most direct driver of this surge is an epic "short squeeze." Before the breakout, the market consolidated around $60,000 for a long time, with massive leveraged short positions accumulated in the derivatives market. Once the price broke through the key liquidation point upward, shorts were forced to cover (buy), triggering a chain reaction and generating huge short-term buying pressure. Analysts pointed out that over $3 billion worth of short positions were liquidated in this rebound, providing the "fuel" for the rise.
But this force is one-time only. When the "fuel" runs out, for the rally to continue, it must be taken over by real spot buying.
🏗️ Phase Two: Institutions and Positive Factors Build Sustainable Support
Now, the core of building medium- to long-term support lies in the following "structural forces" gaining momentum:
· Institutional capital positioning in advance: Before the surge, on-chain and OTC data already showed that institutions with listed company backgrounds and "ancient whales" were aggressively bottom-fishing around $60,000, laying the spot position foundation for the rebound.
· Macro liquidity improvement: The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repos, pushing down long-end yields, improving overall risk appetite, and providing liquidity support for crypto assets.
· Regulatory expectations becoming clearer: The U.S. SEC released a new regulatory framework, the White House held a crypto summit and called for advancing the "CLARITY Act," policy tailwinds boosted market confidence, attracting incremental funds to reassess crypto assets.
📊 The Critical "Validation Window"
Currently, the market is at a crucial validation window: after the short squeeze buying fades, whether real spot demand, $ETF inflows, and trading volume can keep pace. The mainstream view now is to watch if $BTC can hold the 71,000 area as support and if $ETH can defend the $2,300 level.
In summary, the short squeeze ignited the first fire, but what can keep the flames burning are the "firewood" of institutional capital, macro environment, and policy expectations. The key to the rally’s sustainability lies in whether this firewood can be continuously added.After the latest financial report of 泡泡玛特
I think the market is no longer really concerned about whether Labubu can still sell, but rather who will take over after Labubu.
In the first half of 2026, the company's revenue reached approximately ¥17.17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, and net profit was about ¥5.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 10%. The numbers are still growing, but compared to the explosive period of Labubu in the past, the growth rate has clearly slowed down, and overseas revenue has declined.
The good news is that 泡泡玛特 is also actively reducing its reliance on a single IP.
The new Twinkle Twinkle is growing rapidly and currently contributes about 15% of revenue. The company also announced plans for a share buyback of ¥2 billion to ¥5 billion RMB in the future.
So I think this financial report is not bad; it feels more like entering the next stage.
Previously, the market bought into Labubu's explosion; now the market wants to see if 泡泡玛特 can truly become a company that continuously creates global IPs. If the second and third major IPs can connect, the valuation logic will have a chance to reopen.
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $POPMART $SNDK $OKB #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ \
#财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, which business line do you favor more?
Pengcheng is a line I am willing to give some patience to, but today's surge does not mean it has already won.
In the conference call, Lu Weibing said that Pengcheng's user base overlaps with SU7/YU7 by only 10%+, representing a new price segment and incremental market, launched in September with orders exceeding expectations. This is real incremental growth, not internal cannibalization.
The risk lies in: the extended-range market declined by 13% year-on-year over six months, with 85 models competing for the same batch of customers. Pengcheng needs to fill a 550,000 target gap, requiring an average of 45,000 units per month, heavily relying on its volume growth.
In the short term, I admit I was wrong; in the medium term, I still watch to see if it can truly narrow losses. Until verified, I will not turn bullish.
$XIAOMI White House Summit: Trump Says He Discussed Buying BTC
This might also be one of the most noteworthy pieces of news behind this sudden acceleration of BTC.
On August 19, Trump held a meeting at the White House with executives from the crypto industry and financial institutions, including representatives from Coinbase, Ripple, Nasdaq, as well as officials from the SEC and CFTC.
Trump reiterated that the U.S. must maintain its leading position in the Bitcoin and Crypto space, while pushing forward the CLARITY Act.
What the market is more focused on is that Trump also mentioned the possibility of the U.S. government further expanding its Bitcoin holdings. The U.S. has already established a strategic Bitcoin reserve, mainly from government-held BTC, and an executive order allows the Treasury and Commerce Departments to explore additional BTC acquisition methods "without increasing taxpayer costs."
The real significance of this lies in expectations.
Previously, the market debated whether the U.S. would ban Bitcoin; now the discussion has shifted to whether the U.S. government will continue to increase its Bitcoin reserves.
If in the future the approach moves from "seizing assets to form reserves" to actively increasing BTC holdings, the U.S. government's stance on Bitcoin will change again.
This is also why when BTC breaks through $70,000 these days, the capital reacts so quickly.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC BTC Is Moving — But Is Crypto Really Back? 🚨
BTC just ripped 7.79% to $74,782, but I’m not convinced this is a full-blown crypto risk-on move yet.
ETH is up 4.56% and SOL 5.58% — solid gains, but both are still noticeably behind BTC.
To me, this looks more like a BTC-led positioning reset than broad speculative rotation.
For now, BTC remains the cleanest expression of the market while macro uncertainty stays elevated.
#DailyOrbit $BTC 当前约 74,770，我的持仓成本在 75,188.9 附近，预估强平价是 73,759.9，目前仍有约 106 USDT 浮亏。 先说结论：这笔多单我不会继续死扛，也不会把强平价当成止损价。 我的止损安排 第一道风险线：74,400—74,450 这里是五分钟和十五分钟横盘结构的主要承接区，也是短周期均线密集位置。 如果五分钟实体跌破这一带，下一根K线反抽仍然收不回来，我会先减掉 50%仓位。这代表当前缩量整理没有转化为蓄势，短线承接开始失效。 最终硬止损：标记价格74,280附近 剩余仓位在这里全部离场，不等待十五分钟收盘，更不会等价格接近 73,759.9 的强平线。 逻辑很简单：十五分钟趋势支撑位大约在 74,260—74,400。跌到74,280附近，说明价格已经击穿横盘下沿，短线更高低点结构被破坏。即使后面重新涨回来，也属于另一笔交易，而不是继续为当前错误找理由。 止损建议使用标记价格触发、市价平仓，避免最新成交价还没触发，标记价格却已经先接近强平线。 我的止盈安排 这次不再只挂一个遥远目标，而是分三次处理。 第一止盈区：75,150—75,250，减仓40% 这📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 21)
Frequent directional switches, very small volume, an invalid market typical of low liquidity assets...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $135.37 $0 $135.37
4 hours $1,978.99 $1,648.34 $330.65
12 hours $9,266.52 $2,657.72 $6,608.80
24 hours $26,400 $3,186.64 $23,200
From CORE liquidation data: in 1 hour shorts monopolized the market, longs had zero liquidation, volume only $135, a tentative short squeeze; in 4 hours the direction reversed, long liquidations crushed shorts, longs were 5 times shorts, volume jumped to $1,648, longs briefly took over; in 12 hours direction reversed again, short liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 2.5 times longs, volume rose to $6,608, shorts regained dominance; in 24 hours short advantage expanded, short liquidations $23,200 vs. long $3,200, shorts were 7.3 times longs, total liquidation only $26,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 35% of the 24-hour total, medium concentration. Direction switched four times over 1h, 4h, 12h, and 24h, longs and shorts repeatedly exchanged control, combined with extremely low absolute volume (less than $30,000 in 24h), typical retail trading in a low liquidity asset, no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, this asset has very poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading reference.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 21
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors in three different tracks—whether Bitcoin's short squeeze can turn into a bull market, whether Anthropic's trillion-dollar valuation can sustain the AI bubble, and whether Pop Mart's IP iteration can transcend cycles.
₿ BTC Accelerates Rally: $3.3 Billion Shorts Vaporized, But Short Squeeze Momentum Is Fading
Bitcoin rose over 14% in two days, breaking $73,000. Over $3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours.
However, market data shows new leveraged long funds have not yet entered on a large scale. This rally is still mainly driven by short covering; perpetual futures open interest has not significantly rebounded. Whether Bitcoin can continue higher increasingly depends on spot buying and ETF inflows taking over. On the 19th, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $517 million, but ETF investors’ average holding cost is about $82,465, still overall at a loss. After the short squeeze, the real test is just beginning.
🤖 Anthropic Plans to File IPO Documents by End of August: Fundraising May Surpass SpaceX, Valuation Targets $1.5-2 Trillion
Insiders reveal Anthropic expects to publicly submit IPO documents as early as the end of August, with fundraising possibly matching or exceeding SpaceX’s record $7.5-8.62 billion, targeting a valuation of $1.5-2 trillion.
In May this year, Anthropic completed $65 billion financing, valued at $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion. By the end of July, annualized revenue exceeded $65 billion.
Founded only five years ago, aiming for the largest IPO in history. When the secondary market prices it at $2 trillion, the market is betting not on current profits but on AI’s complete restructuring of the enterprise market.
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Still First, Star People Soar 580% to Take Over
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit 5.16 billion yuan, up 9.5%; gross margin 69.7%. But revenue was below market estimate of 19.98 billion yuan.
IP landscape drastically reshaped. THE MONSTERS series featuring LABUBU generated 4.45 billion yuan, still first; new IP "Star People" revenue 2.65 billion yuan, soaring 580.6% year-on-year, becoming the second largest IP. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine, revenue 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2%. The board announced a first buyback plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan. LABUBU slows down, Star People takes over—the lifecycle management of IP is undergoing its toughest test.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: after Bitcoin’s $3.3 billion short squeeze, whether it can attract real spot buying is key; CORE contract market’s total liquidation is less than $30,000 all day with frequent directional switches, typical low liquidity invalid market with no reference value; Anthropic’s $2 trillion valuation challenges the largest IPO ever, redefining the limits of the AI bubble; Pop Mart’s LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, IP succession is ongoing. Capital is seeking direction simultaneously in three tracks—when the short squeeze fades, IPO volume peaks, and IP shifts gears, who will be the true successor? #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
This wave of BTC's violent surge
A large part of the momentum comes from short squeeze covering, combined with ETF capital inflows, which directly ignited sentiment.
The most critical question now: after the short squeeze finishes, can new buying support hold the high-level chips?
$BTC has directly rushed to a strong resistance zone in the short term; after continuous sharp rallies, indicators have entered overbought territory, and a wick pullback could occur at any time.
Optimistic scenario: if it can hold above 74000, and ETFs continue to see capital inflows, there is a chance to test the 78000‑79000 resistance level.
Risk point: if incremental funds can't keep up and the buying from previous short squeeze exhaustion runs out, a quick pullback to the 68000‑70000 support zone is very likely.
Now is not the time to chase highs for profits; high-level volatility will amplify, so profits should be taken in batches, and avoid holding through back-and-forth wicks.
$ETH's rebound elasticity this round is stronger than BTC's; the ETH/BTC ratio is rising, funds are clearly rotating into Ethereum, and ETFs are also seeing large inflows.
But it’s important to distinguish: part of this is driven by overall market sentiment, and part is catalyzed by its own regulatory benefits.
Bullish logic: as long as the key support at 2200 holds, there is still room to rise, and it will continue to follow BTC in an elastic market.
Risk logic: if BTC experiences a pullback, ETH's retracement is often larger than BTC's. If BTC oscillates at high levels without continuous capital rotation, Ethereum is likely to show relative weakness.The $ETH move is bigger than the Hyperliquid narrative. Three forces are coming together: 1️⃣ Ethereum had been heavily discounted, with traders questioning whether competitors could take its market share. 2️⃣ The DEX + stablecoin narrative is strengthening. If decentralized markets and stablecoins become more central to the U.S. crypto framework, Ethereum’s infrastructure could benefit—including ecosystems built around its technology. 3️⃣ Supply dynamics matter. Lower potential selling pressureMainstream coins are all up in the last 24 hours with 12 fully in the green, averaging +8.59%. 79% of the entire market is rising, with $XRP +20% and $ADA +15% leading the gains. This is a broad rally, not a single-point event. Many attribute the cause to the midterm elections, but this needs clarification: the election is on November 3, more than two months away, and it will determine whether the CLARITY Act can ultimately be implemented. That is a variable for November, not the reason for this August rally. The real triggers are threefold: the Treasury announced that long-term bond buybacks will double from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, effective September 9, causing long-term yields to drop; the White House held a crypto meeting; and the government is pushing Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The news is just the matchstick; what really pushed prices up were the shorts. On August 19, the entire market liquidated $2.99 billion, 91.6% of which were short positions. My own contract data confirms this: despite the large price increase, open interest barely rose and funding rates dropped to nearly zero. The driving force was forced short covering, not new long entries. After the shorts have burned out, it remains to be seen if real money will take over. Who is fueling this surge in Bitcoin?
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market seemed ignited. Bitcoin surged from around 64,000 directly through 70,000, Ethereum approached 2,300, rising nearly 19% in 24 hours. 180,000 people were liquidated, with $3.2 billion in positions wiped out in one wave.
Who is lighting the fire? It's not a single positive factor, but three things combined resonating together.
On August 19, it was announced that the scale of 10 to 30-year Treasury buybacks would double, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to plunge sharply from 5.337% to around 5.19%, while gold soared $125 in a single day. Bitcoin reacted even faster, jumping from 64,000 directly to 70,000. The signal conveyed is crucial — there is an implicit ceiling on long-term rates, the government will intervene to support, liquidity expectations improve, and Bitcoin is the most sensitive to this.
Trump publicly called out trades. The White House met with executives from Coinbase, Kraken, and other crypto companies, urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The top-level stance is clearly shifting. The head of research at Standard Chartered put it bluntly: increased Treasury support at the back end is exactly the signal Bitcoin wants to see, maintaining the year-end target of 100,000 USD.
Short positions accumulated over half a year were wiped out in one go. Bitcoin had been hovering around 60,000 for the past six months, with a large buildup of shorts. After breaking through key resistance, a short squeeze spiral started — the more it rose, the more it flattened; the more it flattened, the more it rose. $1.44 billion in shorts were liquidated within an hour.
The combination of these three factors validates a transmission chain: fiscal policy signals → decline in long-term rates → risk asset revaluation → resonance between crypto spot and derivatives.$BTC 突破75000，30亿空头被爆。这到底是逼空反弹，还是趋势反转？ 过去六周，比特币在62000到66900之间横盘震荡。市场情绪冷到结冰，恐慌指数一度跌到冰点。 所有人都在做空。永续合约资金费率长期为负，空头把杠杆堆到了极致。 然后—— 8月19日晚，BTC从64000直线拉升，今天最高触及75700。 24小时，33亿美元爆仓，空单占了30.7亿。近20万人被一波带走。 这是2021年以来最大规模的清算潮。 然后所有人都在问同一个问题： 这波能持续吗？ 逼空之后会不会一地鸡毛？ 我的判断是—— 逼空是火药，政策是引信，ETF是燃料。 单靠逼空撑不起一轮趋势。但三者共振，这轮行情可能比大多数人想象的要长。 三个信号，自己判断。 信号一：ETF连续三日净流入，8月19日单日5.17亿美元 这不是短线游资。 8月19日，美国比特币现货ETF单日净流入5.17亿美元，创下5月4日以来单日最高纪录。 连续三天净流入。贝莱德IBIT单日吸金2.85亿美元。 机构在真金白银地建仓。 信号二：白宫加密会议 + 财政部扩大国债回购 8月19日，特朗普在白宫罗斯福厅会见了Coinbase、Ri#WhiteHouseSummit: Trump says he discussed buying BTC
The White House held a summit, and Trump publicly said, "We talked about buying Bitcoin."
As soon as he said that, Bitcoin surged again, now at 74,000.
These two characters used to be considered "financial terrorists," but now the president himself says he wants it as a reserve asset.
This is the underlying tone of this market cycle—there's no narrative of a peak yet.
But don't get too excited; he only said they "discussed it."
Between "discussing" and "actually spending real money to buy," there's Congress, budgets, and a lot of back-and-forth.
On the institutional side, ETFs are seriously picking up, with three consecutive days of net inflows.
So my judgment is that Trump's words will keep fueling market imagination, but whether Bitcoin can hold its ground depends on institutions voting with real money.
$BTC