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From the end of June to early July, people who were unwilling to buy any spot at all no longer have the chance to buy BTC/ETH/SOL at June's low points. Especially for SOL, I had already predicted in late June that it would be the lowest point of this cycle. The basis for this judgment was that when BTC pulled back to 57750, SOL not only did not hit a new low, but the retracement low was actually 4 points higher than 60, leading to the conclusion that SOL's entire retracement was capped at 60.
Some people say: if you believe in the four-year bear market cycle, now shouldn't be the bottom. People with this mindset are destined to chase highs and buy at the top. The last wave at the end of each bear market is the smallest, with a volatility of about 12%. Do the math yourself: even if BTC's rebound tops out at 77000 and then pulls back 12%, that means a maximum pullback of 8k points. Even if SOL, at 92-97, breaks through the ceiling and pulls back 20%, the lowest point would still be around 77. So no matter what, you won't have another chance to bottom-fish at June's prices. Because in mid-May, when 82800 pulled back, it could still test 60000 because the fast and slow lines were still suspended in the air, equivalent to jumping down five floors. But now we are on the ground—can we still dig underground?8 月 19 日到 21 日，比特币从 6.3 万美元一路冲破 6.9 万、7.1 万，最高站上 7.4 万美元上方，发文为止涨幅到75000.（这涨幅简直匪夷所思）单周涨幅达到 17.6%。 24 小时内的涨幅也接近 8%，创下 6 月以来的新高。市场里一片“牛回”的声音，但这轮上涨，未必只是行情自己走出来的。 更直接的推力，还是政策。美国财政部宣布加大长期国债回购力度，长端收益率被压下来，美元流动性预期也跟着松了一点，风险资产因此集体喘了口气。 监管预期同样在变好：特朗普在白宫召集加密峰会，公开喊话国会“必须通过”CLARITY Act，也就是我们常说的“清晰法案”。 再加上资金面回流，比特币现货 ETF 单日净流入一度超过 5 亿美元，6 月那波流出也被反转了，空头还顺手被挤了一把，涨幅就被放大得很明显。 我更愿意把这轮上涨理解成“政策态度反转”，而不是“外部环境全面反转”。 美联储并没有转向，利率还停在 3.5%-3.75%，30 年期美债收益率甚至冲到 5.238%，长端压力并没有真正消失。 再看 90 天维度，比特币仍然累计下跌 1.4%，这更像是在宽幅震荡里碰到了一个政策北京时间8月20日凌晨，白宫罗斯福厅，特朗普把加密行业和传统金融的顶级玩家全叫来了——Coinbase的Brian Armstrong、Ripple、Gemini、Robinhood、Kraken，还有纳斯达克和洲际交易所。SEC主席Paul Atkins和CFTC主席Michael Selig也到了。 特朗普上来第一句话：“我们彻底结束了加密货币战争。” 但全场最值得琢磨的，是记者提问环节。 有人直接问：美国政府会不会买“可观数量”的比特币或其他加密货币？ 特朗普的原话是：“嗯，这件事已经讨论过了。”“我想我可能会依靠Paul和整个团队来处理这件事。他们会作出决定，然后告诉我。” 记者追问，他补了一句：“它确实减轻了美元的压力。” 老默给你拆三个细节。 第一，特朗普明确说“讨论过了”。 这不是“没听说过”或“我再想想”，是承认这件事已经在政府层面被认真讨论过。白宫去年3月的行政命令已经允许财政部和商务部在不增加纳税人负担的情况下制定比特币增持策略——法律通道是开着的。 第二，他把球踢给了SEC主席Paul Atkins。特朗普没说“不买”，也没说“什么时候买”，而是把决定权交给监管团$XRP — LONG 🔥💸
Entry: 1.27–1.32
TP1: 1.40
TP2: 1.48
TP3: 1.60
SL: 1.20
XRP has broken strongly above the key EMA levels with a major volume increase. The momentum is bullish, but after a sharp move, a pullback toward the entry zone would offer a safer setup. Holding above 1.27 keeps the bullish structure intact.If there really is a bull market rebound, it would be a super disaster for retail investors with assets less than 1 million.
The first bear market saw a drop of 82%, the second bear market dropped 77%, and now the third round's maximum drop is only 53%.
These are very frightening numbers. I estimate that considering the impact of Trump and Wall Street entering the market, the drop will be set at 60%, which means just breaking below 50,000 as the ideal range.
If the price really rebounds now, retail investors with less than 1 million in assets can't even gather 10 $BTC, which also means:
The crypto world has no relation to ordinary people anymore.
In the next bull market, there will be even fewer hundredfold altcoins, and the path to crossing social classes will be even more crowded. BTC and ETH continue to break through strongly?! Let's keep an eye on the market
$BTC continues its strong momentum, reaching a high close to 76,000 points, currently standing above 75,000 points again. Feels like it's about to start another rally? That's too fast, the next wave should hit 77,000. Many brothers probably regret selling too early, right? But in my view, there's still opportunity to enter on this small pullback; the market isn't over yet!
$ETH, the big move still depends on ETH! When sleeping, it sleeps deeply, but when it stands up, it's solid! It once surged to 2,380, preparing to challenge the 2,400 mark, pulling up over 500 points in just a few days! Currently at 2,350, after a small pullback it’s rising again, barely taking a breath! Expected to break 2,400 today. In this market, don't short lightly; sentiment is very high and it’s easy to get stopped out by a sudden spike.
Whether this crypto rally can continue depends mainly on the Fed's September and December meetings. If September confirms no rate hike, US stocks will rebound after a pullback and even hit new highs, dragging crypto up with them. If December also holds rates or cuts them, opening the door to easing, Bitcoin returning to 120,000 won’t be a dream! That said, QQQ remains bearish short-term, currently around 710 on the Nasdaq 100. Even if it rallies, it needs to drop below 680 first. A pullback is inevitable; those who believe can try shorting!
Now about platform tokens
OKB’s gains in this bull market are undeniably huge. Currently at 106, the price is indeed high, but OKB’s explosive power is unquestionable. 106 might be a short-term peak, but with long-term positives, it could even surpass 200! This period might be the last mid-term chance to get in; if you wait for the big rally, the value of your chips might be even higher.
As for BNB, the fundamentals are even stronger. Currently above 660, compared to OKB, BNB is more stable but with slightly smaller gains. I tend to wait on BNB, maybe start holding spot around a 500-point pullback. Feels like BNB and OKB are like BTC and ETH 😂
$BICO and similar altcoins, no matter how much you try to advise, many bulls still jump in as fuel. Countless people still fantasize about an altcoin suddenly surging. Why would it surge now? It’s better to wait for confirmed reversal trends before chasing. Altcoin rallies don’t happen instantly. Bottom fishing can be profitable, but how long do you endure sideways moves, slow declines, and multiple liquidations? When the rally comes, will one wave be enough to recover? Can you hold on?
The storage sector remains the same story: Hynix, SNDK, and Micron. Currently, SanDisk leads, with recent rhythm roughly sideways. Hynix oscillates around 1,200, SanDisk around 1,600, but SanDisk seems stuck lately? Earlier, many thought the rally wasn’t over, but now the market is getting more uncertain. Before a clear direction emerges, you can use grid strategies to capture some swings and secure stable returns.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 $ETH first target is to hit around 2420
With the current bullish momentum, rushing to short carries a high risk. The market is breaking out with increased volume, on-chain funds are continuously flowing in, and institutions along with whale accounts are steadily adding positions. Approaching the Friday time frame, Ethereum is very likely to push again and break above the 2400 level. The current brief pullback is precisely a window to buy the dip.
Enter long positions at the current price, target 2420, stop loss at 2290.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？
Unitree Robotics' IPO set a very bad precedent
Unitree Robotics went public with an issuance P/E ratio as high as 219x, which skyrocketed to 1000x on the first day of trading, then dropped to 600x intraday.
To put the bubble into perspective: the average P/E in the general equipment industry is only 38x, Hong Kong-listed robotics peers generally hover around 20x, and even the established overseas tech company Boston Dynamics is valued at just over 8 billion RMB. In the U.S. market, hard tech growth stocks are generously priced at 30-50x P/E.
With earnings yet to truly take off, the valuation has been driven to the sky, with new stocks crazily draining capital. It's unclear whether retail investors or fund companies are the ones taking the baton.
This kind of speculative frenzy is unsustainable, as it exhausts several years of growth expectations all at once, leading to a prolonged period of value correction. This severely dampens market morale; ordinary investors see the sector's potential but keep losing money on their holdings, repeatedly eroding their confidence.
Once such ultra-high pricing sets a bad example, subsequent tech stock pricing will easily follow suit, with everyone trying to spin stories and hype the market. $UNITREE 6.22‑8.10 Storage and BTC showed a seesaw market, with Micron and SanDisk experiencing deep weekly pullbacks, while BTC bottomed out and consolidated sideways.
The storage pullback has come to an end, and BTC's rise has subsequently started.
The previous trend mismatch has ended, and now the two rhythms resonate again. Storage + crypto are expected to rise synchronously, so it is advisable to buy on dips and position accordingly.
⚠️ Market information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice The current market has surged and then entered a small-scale high-level sideways consolidation, with no signs of weakening so far. Today's key focus is the critical level at 74200. Only if a large bearish candlestick effectively breaks below the 74200 support will the market have conditions to move downward. Otherwise, a quick decline in the short term is unlikely, and the market will most likely continue to oscillate or move upward. The strategy remains primarily bullish on pullbacks to support. The key level to watch today for Bitcoin is 74200; if the price holds above 74200 on a pullback, the bullish trend remains strong and the market will continue upward. The first resistance to watch above is the previous high at 75700. If it cannot be broken, the market will pull back again. If the 1-hour chart shows an effective break below 74200, a short-term correction will officially begin.
Short positions should watch the upper levels: 77700‑79500‑81000
Long positions should watch the lower levels: 72600‑71350‑70100 $BTC #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
I am Cige. Anthropic is expected to publicly file IPO documents as early as the end of August, with a fundraising scale that could match or exceed the record previously set by SpaceX. SpaceX's IPO raised about $75 billion, and including the overallotment, about $86.2 billion. Preliminary Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, with annualized revenue reaching $65 billion by the end of July, and it recorded a positive adjusted operating profit. However, a net loss close to $42 billion is expected in 2025.
This is another AI giant rushing to the public market amid huge losses. Revenue growth is astonishing, and losses are equally staggering. Market pricing disagreements will focus on computing power costs, loss pressure, and the sustainability of customer revenue. If Anthropic's IPO is well received by the market, it will further strengthen the logic of capital expenditure on AI infrastructure. If the market votes with its feet, concerns about an AI valuation bubble will be amplified.
Impact on BTC is structurally positive in the medium term. Anthropic's IPO fundraising scale is huge, but the concentration of AI company IPOs is a stress test on the market's liquidity. In the short term, market risk appetite may increase due to the AI IPO boom, but in the medium to long term, it depends on the capital siphoning effect. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking, you savor it. $BTC $ETH $HYPE Recently, gold and oil have been taking turns to surge, and last night's market was the most interesting—
Oil soared, gold was deliberately suppressed, and as a result, silver suddenly emerged as a dark horse, forcibly pulling big brother gold back up.
What is the truth?
The series of actions by Trump and Bassett essentially aim to destroy the credibility of the US dollar.
Under a weak dollar credit structure:
Oil is held down, but gold cannot be suppressed;
With grit, they try to suppress gold by pushing up oil,
But silver comes out to disrupt, throwing the whole rhythm into chaos.
A policy deadlock
To issue bonds, a strong dollar is necessary;
To have a strong dollar, gold must be held down;
Unwilling to raise interest rates, the only way to strengthen the dollar is to push up oil;
Pushing up oil inevitably triggers inflation;
Once inflation hits, US tech stocks will be doomed;
If the stock market collapses, Trump's midterm elections are at risk.
So we see—
· Bassett wants strong US bonds
· Trump wants a strong stock market
· Walsh wants a strong dollar
Three people, three paths, pulling back and forth, taking turns on stage, caring for the head but not the tail.
And the result?
None of US bonds, stocks, or the dollar were saved.
This is the fundamental reason for the recent triple kill of US stocks, currency, and bonds.
The most important thing about currency has always been credit.
The US is continuously overdrawing its credit,
And the result is—
When Qin lost its deer, the whole world chased after it.
This is also the fundamental logic behind the strengthening of the renminbi.
In the end
Credit, confidence, and faith
are the true pillars of currency.
When these three pillars begin to shake,
the game is not far from changing hands.
$CL $XAU $XAG
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧
#成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC 在白宫与科技及金融大佬的峰会上，特朗普明确透出曾讨论将 $BTC 纳入战略储备或官方资产负债表的消息，这直接给原本处于震荡洗盘的大盘打了一剂强心针。 政治家在公开场合谈论 BTC 已经不新鲜，但这背后的逻辑正在发生根本转变： 1. 从“监管合规”到“国家级资产储备” 以往政策面讨论的焦点全在防洗钱、发牌照和征税；而现在，白宫讨论的级别直接抬升到了“国家资产配置”。一旦将 $BTC 提升到战略储备或财政对冲工具的高度，性质就从离岸风险资产演变成了全球主权级别的数字黄金。 2. 机构与传统金融的“对冲筹码” 在美债规模与通胀预期反复拉锯的背景下，白宫峰会释放的信号不仅是给散户看的情绪利好，更是给传统机构（TradFi）吃定心丸。这会倒逼更多上市公司与华尔街基金将 BTC 划入财库配置，现货流动性将被进一步锁死。 3. 警惕“口风拉升”后的高位上下插针 政治利好向来是双刃剑。消息传出后清算图上的空头高倍杠杆被顺势爆破，但真正的法案落地与财政部买入需要极其漫长的博弈过程。高位追高开高倍杠杆，极容易遇到做市商借利好兑现进行的“深插针”洗盘。 总结： 现货Bitcoin stands above 74,000, Ethereum breaks through 2,300, SOL approaches 90, $3.3 billion vaporized in 24 hours, shorts account for 3.07 billion — I stared at the liquidation data and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: you think this is the start of a bull market, but actually this is the most dangerous position in the gunner's game — everyone is aiming at the same target, and you are about to step onto it. 📊 First, look at the table: who is playing the cards, who is getting hit Bitcoin: retail investors are rushing in, whales are watching. Bitcoin hit a high of $75,785 today, up more than 20% this week. But what’s really worth watching is the liquidation data: $3.3 billion liquidated in 24 hours, shorts account for 3.07 billion, nearly 200,000 people were taken out in one wave. This is not bulls buying, it’s shorts dying. More importantly, the leverage structure — the retail long-to-short ratio soared to 2.22, while top traders (whales) have a long-to-short ratio of only 1.47. Retail investors are crazily adding leverage to go long, whales are watching coldly. The funding rate has risen to the highest in 20 months — the cost of holding long positions is exponentially increasing, while the price is still being pushed up by short liquidations. Ethereum: the biggest beneficiary of the short squeeze. ETH hit a high of $2,355, up more than 12% in 24 hours. But this is a typical "short squeeze" — the price pushed up by crushed shorts, not real buying support. Solana: the only public chain that is rising, but don’t get too happy yet. SOL broke through $90, up more than 19% this week. SOL ETF inflows last week were $10 million, the strongest since May. Gold at $4500, institutions are starting to get scared, how many people still dare to chase?
Spot gold has climbed back above $4500, SPDR Gold ETF holdings are also increasing, and domestic gold-themed fund sizes continue to expand.
But interestingly, institutions have started to argue.
UBS even sees $5000 in the first half of 2027, but Wells Fargo has begun to lower its target price.
This indicates that no one dares to easily deny the long-term logic of gold, but short-term valuations are already showing divergence.
A weaker dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and concerns about the fiscal deficit are still supporting gold.
But the problem is, gold has already risen so much.
If U.S. Treasury yields rise again later, or market risk appetite continues to improve, funds chasing at high levels might instead become liquidity for profit-taking.
So when looking at gold now, we must clearly see whether funds are continuing to chase higher or starting to rise while withdrawing?
Because the real danger is never an asset just rising high.
It’s when everyone thinks: "It’s already risen so much, it must continue to rise."
Gold now may be entering a stage that requires more caution than just being "bullish."
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 @OKX星球 @OKX中文 $XAU $XAUT $BTC has already climbed back to around $75K, still with significant room to reach the all-time high of $126K; $SOL has also reached about $89, compared to the previous high of around $293. The recent rise is indeed supported by fundamental catalysts: the U.S. Treasury increasing long-term bond repurchases, improved regulatory expectations, and a rebound in market risk appetite are all providing support to crypto assets. However, I am not in a hurry to define this as a "new super bull market" yet. Price breakout ≠ confirmed bull market. What I want to see more is: → BTC stabilizing at $73K–$75K → ETH continuing to rise, not just BTC alone → SOL breaking through $90 and holding steady → Continuous inflow of ETF and spot funds → Genuine expansion in altcoin trading volume So my thinking is simple: you can be bullish, but don’t lose discipline just because the market suddenly turns green. A true bull market doesn’t need to be shouted out emotionally; the trend will prove itself.📈Currently, $QQQ is in a dense turnover range between $710 and $717, with the core conflict focused on the battle between the high valuation of tech stocks and the strong resistance zone from $730 to $735.
From the price structure perspective, the index has formed a short-term bull-bear dividing line between $708 and $715. The $730 to $735 range above is a dense lock-up zone formed by previous highs, requiring a significant increase in volume to absorb selling pressure.
The main driving factors dominating the market are, first, the continuous suppression of tech stock valuations by the high interest rate environment, and second, capital divergence triggered by tech stock earnings reports. Without new capital following in during high-level oscillations, bullish momentum will face attenuation.
The trigger condition for the upward scenario is the index stabilizing above $715 with normal volume and breaking through the $730 to $735 resistance zone with volume. If the upward test lacks volume support, this breakout scenario will likely fail.
The trigger condition for the downward scenario is the price breaking below the core defense line between $708 and $715. Once confirmed lost, the price will seek a bottom downward, retesting the $685 to $700 range, which coincides with the 52-week relative low and a key round number level.
The critical failure point of the overall structure is set at $700. If this defense line breaks due to macro tightening, it means the mid-term bullish bottoming structure is completely destroyed.
The most important observation variables in the next 7 days are the turnover efficiency in the $710 to $717 range, as well as the volume situation when testing the $730 resistance and breaking below the $708 dividing line.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？$PUMP has been continuously rising recently. This inevitably reminds me of the previous $WLD, which was in a similar situation at that time. Let's compare the trends of these two coins. We can see that the overall trends of these two coins are relatively similar. However, $PUMP is clearly rising more steadily. If we look at $WLD's situation, $PUMP should currently be at a high point. At this position, I am considering shorting it. —————————————————— Let's also look at its contract data. From the chart, we can see that its current long-short contract ratio is not very low, and the contract open interest is not very high either. This somewhat dispels my idea of shorting because it indicates that the market sentiment is not very bearish at the moment. —————————————————— Personally, I really want to find an opportunity to short it. Because this coin has risen a lot, the profit from shorting would be relatively large. But after analyzing the data, I just don't feel there is a chance to short. Its rise is just too stable. This kind of stability somewhat intimidates me. —————————————————— Currently, I want to watch at this position because the coin's issuance price is $0.004. That means a lot of people are trapped at the $0.004 level. If it can rise to $0.0045, I will most likely open a short position. Because, personally, I believe that at the $0.0045 level isFrom 8.19 to 8.20, the crypto derivatives market experienced the strongest short squeeze since November 2021, with over $3 billion liquidated across the entire market. This surge was not driven by spot institutions aggressively buying, but by macro news ignition plus six weeks of accumulated short positions being passively liquidated in a chain reaction. 📊 Core liquidation data Total liquidations > $3 billion - Short liquidations: $2.77 billion (92%) - Long liquidations: $264 million - BTC short liquidations: $1.37 billion - ETH short liquidations: $1.01 billion - Highest single-hour short liquidation: $1.29 billion Exchange distribution: Binance $518 million, Hyperliquid $513 million, Bybit $303 million, with the remainder on OKX, dYdX, etc. Altcoins liquidated simultaneously: SOL shorts $187 million, XRP $142 million, DOGE $89 million. Market performance: BTC quickly surged from 64,100 to break through 72,000; ETH's 24h maximum gain was 18%, with the entire short squeeze cycle lasting about 18 hours. 🧨 Complete event chain 1️⃣ Trigger: US Treasury raised the long-term bond repo limit to $4 billion (effective 9.9–11.4) Note: This is not QE or rate cuts, but debt liquidity management to suppress long bond yields, igniting risk asset sentiment. One hour after the news, BTC rose from 64,100 to 66,800. 2️⃣ Price rise → short margin emergency, triggering the first round of forced liquidations Exchanges$BTC has risen nearly 18% in five days: This time, spot and futures funds have finally returned simultaneously #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
BTC has already rebounded continuously from a low point in this round, with a cumulative increase of nearly 18% over the past five trading days, once breaking through $70,000 and hitting an approximately 11-week high. An even more important new signal is that CryptoQuant data shows that BTC spot and perpetual futures demand have both turned positive at the same time, marking the first occurrence of this combination since the last bull market in October 2025.
This is somewhat different from a simple Short Squeeze. The rise in the past few days can be explained by short covering, but if spot demand also continues to turn positive, the market structure starts to become healthier.
At the same time, Crypto US stocks have also begun to follow the rise: Coinbase previously rose about 7.6%, and XRP once surged 18.8% in a single day.CORE DAO Series ⑤｜If you want to observe CORE long-term, I only focus on these 8 data points
After the previous analyses, I believe that judging whether Core has truly entered a bull market main rally should not be based solely on price.
I will establish a long-term data panel.
1｜BTC Staking
⸻
2｜lstBTC Supply
⸻
3｜BTCFi TVL
⸻
4｜Lending Collateral
⸻
5｜Dual Staking Ratio
⸻
6｜Protocol Revenue
⸻
7｜CORE Buyback
⸻
8｜CORE Circulating Supply
Finally, also look at: New supply vs. buyback/burn/lock-up
If the demand growth rate exceeds the effective circulating supply growth, it is easier to generate real price elasticity.
So my biggest judgment about Core's future is not: "How much can CORE rise?" but: Can Core convert BTC's growth into its own revenue; then convert that revenue into CORE demand.
If this chain runs through:
BTC
↓
BTC Staking
↓
lstBTC
↓
BTCFi
↓
Revenue
↓
CORE Buyback
↓
CORE Demand
Then Core completes a very important identity transformation: from BTC narrative L1 to BTC financial infrastructure#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
Pop Mart's half-year report is out, marking the end of last year's explosive growth and entering a growth transition period. Revenue continues to grow, but net profit growth has clearly lagged, overseas business is cooling off, and growth pressure is gradually emerging.
The biggest change comes from the IP structure. Previously highly dependent on the single core LABUBU, its revenue share has significantly declined; Star People has emerged unexpectedly, with half-year revenue soaring, quickly becoming the second largest IP. Meanwhile, CRYBABY, DIMOO, and others have formed a second tier, with a multi-IP matrix initially taking shape.
Bullish logic: breaking free from reliance on a single hit product reduces the risk of a single IP's lifecycle, the domestic market base remains solid, and a 2-5 billion yuan buyback plan has been launched to stabilize market confidence. If the IP tiers continue to produce new products, the growth ceiling is expected to further open up.
Risks are also prominent. Hit IPs have popularity cycles; whether Star People can replicate LABUBU's long lifespan and whether the overseas market can reverse its downturn remain huge uncertainties. The collectible toy industry experiences significant consumer sentiment fluctuations, and new hit products are highly contingent. Multi-IP succession is not a guaranteed outcome.
Personal view: moving from a single core to multiple IPs is the right direction, but forming a matrix does not mean immediate performance realization. During the growth transition phase, do not benchmark the future against past high growth rates. Two key observation points going forward: the new IP lifecycle continuation ability and the progress of overseas business recovery.
Mapping to the crypto market is only for consumer sector sentiment reference and does not directly affect the market. 1. Compliant institutional funds (ETF channels, external increment window) On the previous trading day, BTC spot ETFs saw a phased large net inflow of $472 million, with a cumulative inflow of $797 million over seven days, the strongest single-day inflow in the past two weeks; however, after the price surged above 74,700, short-term take-profit orders increased rapidly during the session, and large active orders dropped significantly, so the strong net inflow trend did not continue. Currently, the total AUM of BTC spot ETFs has reached $81.26 billion, accounting for 6.17% of Bitcoin's circulating market capitalization; Funds continue to flow out of Grayscale's GBTC to BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC, and this long-term flow trend remains unchanged. ETH spot ETFs had seen positive inflows for several consecutive days, with a single-day net inflow of $178 million the previous day and a cumulative inflow of $300 million over seven days. This round of ETH gains showed stronger elasticity than BTC, but ETF inflows lagged behind the price increase. After the surge, there was a brief net outflow during trading, with institutions increasing willingness to cash at high levels. Compliant funds only moderately positioned funds without aggressively chasing the rally. Overall, institutions have been entering the market intermittently and have not yet formed a continuous and continuous flow. 2. On-chain whale funds (medium- to long-term chip dimension) Long-term BTC whales continue to withdraw BTC from exchanges to self-custody wallets and lock it, with underlying tokens steadily accumulating; Short-term trading whales recharged at high levels in batches to take profits and adjust positions, without collectively chasing the rally. The total long-term ETH staking volume remains at 4.917 million, with a stable staking rateBCH is a typical example of a late surge in established payment coins. After BTC strengthens, the market tends to re-explore assets that have a high narrative correlation with Bitcoin and mature circulation, and BCH often attracts short-term capital attention as a result. The characteristic of this kind of market is a quick start and quick divergence. Next, the focus is on whether the high-level turnover is healthy; if the trading volume continues to expand, the continuity of the trend will have a stronger foundation. $BCH Thanks to Ethereum (second round), you gave me an extremely vivid market lesson. I keep saying every day and advising others: always maintain respect for the market, always guard against extreme conditions, and be very cautious when adding positions. But as soon as I lost money, I got carried away, became subjective and underestimated the situation, completely forgetting that Ethereum has never been a "mainstream coin"; it is basically the big brother of altcoins... I hate myself for not achieving "unity of knowledge and action." I was wrong, as dumb as a pig, making the most basic mistake: I opened both isolated margin and cross margin short positions at the same time. Even though the price just surged to a high of 2133 at 23:27, I stubbornly held on and then added 22+29=51 points worth of additional orders. The reason was that since it fell back from 2133, that indicated strong resistance there, so it definitely wouldn't go higher. Dozens of additional orders were all placed at low levels; I remember the highest single order was only at 2222, 120 points below the new high of 2342, averaging about 160 to 180 points below 2342. Sigh, all were swept away, leaving me wanting to cry but with no tears! Huge losses! After reviewing, here are the conclusions: First, my mindset was too arrogant and naive—I thought Ethereum reaching 2133 was seriously overbought, with the highest daily increase at 12%, so I expected at least some pullback, believing this rapid sharp rise was just a temporary spike to shake out weak hands, thinking this kind of rise was unreliable, unstable, and unsustainable. Second, the specific operational mistake was: to avoid showing too ugly a floating loss on the account, I added positions too quickly and too densely, with only a 10-point interval, not spacing them out at all. The correct approach should have been to space them 80 to 100 points apart and add in batches, rather thanCORE DAO Series ④｜If the BTC bull market truly starts, what will drive CORE's rise?
This is the most important question in my opinion.
Because:
BTC rising ≠ CORE necessarily rising.
What CORE really needs is:
BTC rising
→ BTC holders seeking yield
→ BTC entering Core
→ BTCFi growth
→ Protocol revenue growth
→ Demand for CORE generated
So the bull market logic for Core is essentially a "second-order Beta."
First layer:
BTC rising.
Second layer:
BTC rising drives BTCFi.
Third layer:
BTCFi drives Core.
Fourth layer:
Core's revenue ultimately feeds back to CORE.#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元
This ETH surge is not driven by fundamentals but is a chain reaction of "shorts conceding defeat." Of the 20% increase, half was forced buybacks from liquidations, not new capital chasing.
On August 20, ETH soared to $2302, up 20.44% in 24 hours, breaking above $2000 for the first time in over two months. CoinGlass data shows that during this period, ETH short liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion, with 92% being short positions. The whale "pension-usdt.eth" suffered a single loss of $108 million. The entire short squeeze scale is the second largest in history, only behind October 2025.
The Treasury raised the long bond buyback cap from $2 billion to $4 billion, with the 30-year yield falling from 5.34%; the SEC released the Regulation Crypto draft to reduce regulatory uncertainty; the White House crypto summit called for passing the CLARITY Act. These three positive factors stacked at the shorts' most vulnerable moment.
2300 is a critical watershed. If it holds, the next target is 2400-2450; if it doesn't, a pullback to 2230-2250 is expected. However, RSI is already overbought, funding rates are high, and chasing carries significant risk. This is not a confirmed trend reversal but a violent liquidation. The real direction will be clearer after Jackson Hole.1. BTC Spot ETF Dimension Overall Capital Overview: In the previous trading day, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a large-scale net inflow of $472 million, with a cumulative net inflow of $797 million over seven days, the strongest single-day inflow in the past two weeks. After the price surged above 74,700 during the day, short-term profit-taking orders increased rapidly, with signs of inter-session capital outflows. Large active orders dropped sharply, and the previous high-intensity net inflow was not continued. Currently, the total US BTC spot ETF AUM stands at $81.26 billion, with ETF holdings in Bitcoin accounting for 6.17% of the circulating market capitalization. Breakdown of leading single products: BlackRock IBIT remains the core capital carrier, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $60.8 billion, accounting for 72% of total BTC spot ETF capital increments; Fidelity FBTC was the second main inflow; Grayscale's GBTC remains in a long-term net outflow channel, with slight intraday outflows. Old funds continue to migrate from Grayscale to new ETFs like IBIT and FBTC, and this trend of capital migration has remained unchanged for a long time. Market fund characteristics: Between 73,500 and 75,000, large limit buy orders in the ETF secondary market have noticeably decreased, mostly from scattered retail investors. Short-term profit-taking selling pressure continues to increase. Institutions have not started buying at this high. The main force behind this rally is still short filling, and ETF incremental funds have not kept pace with the price rise. 2. ETH Spot ETF Dimension Overall Capital Overview: The previous day, the US ETH spot ETF was net for the dayThe most frustrating point of the July FOMC minutes is not the 9 to 3 split
but that the market discovered there is no clear answer within the Fed
On the surface, interest rates remain unchanged, but several officials still worry about inflation, and three members even support a rate hike. Energy, tariffs, AI capital expenditure, and long-term bond yields are all adding confusion to inflation and financial conditions. Investors want to hear a clear dovish or hawkish statement, but the minutes instead reveal a lot of disagreement
I think this is the most troublesome part right now
If data weakens, the market wants to bet on easing; if inflation sticks, the Fed cannot easily concede. The new chair communicates less, so the minutes become the only material for everyone to decode like a puzzle. Policy uncertainty itself will also become part of asset prices
This round, both BTC and gold are rising, which in a way is the market voting
People don’t necessarily believe in rate cuts
but increasingly don’t believe policy can end smoothly
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 The Bhutan government's recent move, frankly speaking, is treating Bitcoin as cash.
Yesterday, they transferred 490 BTC (about 32.7 million USD) in one go to a new wallet, with the largest single transfer being 485 BTC. It sounds impressive, but this has actually been their routine operation for over a year — selling off steadily from a peak of 13,000 BTC in 2024 down to just over 3,000 BTC now, a 70% decrease.
Interestingly, the official stance is "no coins sold," but the on-chain data clearly records every transaction, with funds continuously flowing out. This "data contradicting the official statement" is the most noteworthy aspect of this news.
The market impact is actually limited; 30+ million USD is just a drop in the bucket compared to Bitcoin's daily trading volume. But the sentiment signal is more important than the capital flow — after all, the phrase "a sovereign nation is continuously selling" is inherently sensitive in the crypto community. And at this pace, the remaining holdings will be sold off in a few months.
In short, Bhutan is treating Bitcoin as a liquid fiscal tool rather than an appreciating asset. The trend is clear; don't overreact to single transfers, just look at the bigger picture.
$BTC
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ TRX's strength is clearly weaker than BTC and ETH, more like a steady follow-up rise rather than an emotional surge. TRON's core support still lies in stablecoin transfers, on-chain activity, and fee consumption. During market rallies, its elasticity is usually not the highest, but its defensive characteristics are relatively more prominent. Going forward, it depends on whether funds flow back from high-volatility assets to public chains with clearer cash flow and usage scenarios. $TRX $BTC crypto is skyrocketing, while storage stocks have just undergone a severe valuation crash. Both $MU Micron and SK Hynix have experienced significant pullbacks, but the signals coming from the industry side tell a completely different story. Micron recently announced it will invest $10 billion over the next decade in Boise, Idaho, to build Micron Research Labs, focusing on next-generation storage technology, advanced Memory and Compute architectures, advanced packaging, and future semiconductor manufacturing.
What I think is most worth noting about this investment is not the "$10 billion" itself, but that Micron is betting on a trend: the next bottleneck for AI might be shifting from simply lacking GPUs to a combined shortage of computing power, memory, and data transfer.
In the past two years, when people talked about AI hardware, the first reaction was almost always NVIDIA. But as models grow larger and inference calls increase, no matter how fast GPUs compute, if data can't be delivered in time, the expensive computing power will just sit idle.
This is why HBM is becoming increasingly important.
This year, major tech companies are expected to invest at least $630 billion in building AI infrastructure, and Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung have all stated that supply remains tight in the face of rapidly growing demand.
So I won’t conclude that the AI storage cycle is over just because storage stocks have dropped sharply in the short term.
GPUs determine how fast AI can compute, while Memory determines whether that computing power can actually be fully utilized. $HYPE is the native token of the Hyperliquid L1 blockchain. Hyperliquid primarily focuses on high-performance on-chain order book (CLOB) perpetual contract trading, while also supporting spot trading, HIP-3 RWA/stocks/commodities/Pre-IPO markets, and HyperEVM. It holds a dominant position in the decentralized perpetual contract sector. Executive Summary HYPE's current price is approximately $74.37, with a 24-hour increase of about 6.6-7.3%, a market cap of around $16.5 billion (ranking 9th-10th), circulating supply of about 222.4 million tokens (around 23% of total supply), and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $74.3 billion. It has only dropped about 3% from its all-time high of $76.87 on June 16, 2026. Recent performance has been strong: on August 19-20, driven by favorable US regulatory news, it surged over 20% from the $58-62 range, with a 7-day increase of about 29.5%. Platform trading volume, open interest (OI), and fees remain leading, but it faces token unlocking pressure and the impact of HIP-3 revenue sharing on protocol income. Core Assessment: The short-term technical outlook is bullish, approaching previous highs; it is necessary to observe whether it can hold above $70-72 and break through $77. The mid-to-long term depends on US market access implementation, RWA expansion, and the buying power's ability to absorb unlocking. The valuation is no longer cheap, but fundamentals remain strong. Current Market Overview - Price and Performance: Current price $74.37, 24-hour range $68.95-$74.88, 7-day CORE DAO Series ②｜Why I think Core's “TVL” can't be simply viewed?
Recently, when looking at Core DAO, it's easy to fall into a data trap:
Seeing hundreds of millions of dollars in “TVL,” and then directly concluding:
"The Core ecosystem has already exploded."
I think it needs to be broken down.
Because Core has two completely different figures:
Traditional DeFi TVL
and
BTC Staking / BTCFi asset scale.
The former is actually not very large at present.
DefiLlama currently reports Core DeFi TVL at only a few million dollars.
But on the other hand, the Core ecosystem has disclosed a BTC staking scale of about 2,470 BTC.
These two numbers cannot be conflated.$BTC surged to 75,342, up 8.61% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 75,770. Whether it can hold above 75,000 gives a clear direction: if it can't hold in the short term, it will pull back. The reason is not in the technical pattern but in the fuel. This round of open interest only increased by 3.09%, while the price rose by 8.61%, less than half the growth rate; the funding rate is 0.0077%, longs have hardly paid any premium for this move; the long-short account ratio barely moved from 1.04 to 1.05, retail investors haven't really entered. Altogether, this means: the price was pushed up by shorts capitulating and closing positions, not by new money entering. Shorts are a one-time fuel, once closed, it's gone. Looking above, in nearly 200 days, there have been 44 days closing above 75,000, those people are waiting to break even, so a rebound to this level naturally faces selling pressure. Therefore, my judgment is a pullback, but not a crash—without accumulated leverage, there won't be a cascading liquidation. To overturn this judgment is simple: if open interest clearly catches up and it holds above 75,770, then new money has truly entered. A break below 73,000 confirms the pullback.The recent BTC trend has stunned many, soaring directly from over 60,000 to around 75,000, a cumulative increase of 15%, with extremely volatile swings. ETH also took off, rising over 20% in two days, surpassing $2300.
Behind the market is a fierce short squeeze, with over $1 billion in shorts forcibly liquidated in a single hour, marking the largest liquidation wave since 2021. In 24 hours, the entire network saw over $3 billion liquidated, nearly 180,000 traders wiped out, and a large number of short positions flushed out.
But the question arises: Is this surge the start of a new market trend, or just a pulse triggered by short covering?
On the funding side, institutional inflows are visible. On August 19, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517 million in a single day, a three-month high, with BlackRock alone contributing $285 million. The three-day cumulative inflow is close to $1 billion, indicating this rally is not just retail speculation.
Catalysts are also piling up: Trump meeting with crypto industry executives, signals of regulatory easing, and increased long-term bond repurchases by the U.S. Treasury, multiple positive factors resonating.
However, risks are also prominent. Although there is still room before the historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, the short-term surge has already accumulated a large amount of profit-taking pressure. Standard Chartered maintains an optimistic year-end target of $100,000, but some analysts believe this is just a technical rebound.
My view: There is still momentum in the short term, but chasing the highs carries significant risk. Whether the trend continues depends on whether ETFs can sustain net inflows and whether the 75,000 resistance level can hold. If it holds, the next target is 80,000; if not, expect consolidation around 65,000.
This is just a market opinion exchange and does not constitute investment advice BTC cleared $72K as $3B+ in shorts got wiped out — the second-largest liquidation event since 2021. Volume actually surged too, ~$91B, breaking a three-month lull. Spot demand looks like it's leading, not just leverage unwinding.
Still below the 200-day average though, and ~44K BTC has flowed to exchanges — some holders cashing in. Jackson Hole next week is the real test.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to follow through?
This wave of increase is indeed a bit fast. $BTC has surged from over 60,000 all the way to around 75,000 USD, with a nearly 20% gain in just a few days, and today it even approached 75,000 at one point.
But I think the most important thing to watch now is no longer "how much more it can rise," but whether the funds behind it can keep up.
Currently, it’s not just a pure emotional pull. The US stock Bitcoin ETF has clearly seen renewed capital inflows, with a single-day net inflow of 517 million USD on August 19, indicating that off-exchange funds are indeed returning.
The problem is also obvious: the faster it rises, the more short-term profit-taking there will be. Plus, this round has already seen a large number of shorts liquidated, so the market can easily shift from a "short squeeze rally" to a "bullish relay."
My view: around 75,000 is a very critical level. If BTC can hold steady there and the ETF continues to maintain net inflows, there is still momentum for funds to push higher; but if after the surge the funds can’t keep up, then be cautious of a wave of profit-taking.
So now I won’t be outright bearish just because it’s rising sharply, nor will I blindly chase longs just because it breaks through.
What really determines whether this rally can go far is not how pretty the candlesticks look, but whether there is sustained real money coming in.
From now on, just watch two things: whether BTC can hold above 75,000, and whether ETF funds can continue to flow in.CORE DAO Series ①｜What changes will Core undergo after the bull market starts?
In the past, many people looked at Core DAO and their first reaction was:
"Another L1."
But I believe this positioning is becoming outdated.
What truly deserves attention is that Core is trying to become:
The yield layer for BTC / BTCFi infrastructure.
This means Core's core logic is shifting from:
BTC → Core → DeFi
to:
BTC → BTC Staking → lstBTC → BTCFi → Yield → CORE value capture
These two logics have completely different valuation models.
Currently, Core's traditional DeFi TVL is actually not large; what really needs attention is BTC staking.
The ecosystem has disclosed that the native BTC staking scale has already reached about 2,470 BTC.
So when evaluating Core, you can't just look at the usual L1 metrics:
• TVL
• TPS
• Active addresses
• DEX trading volume
You should pay more attention to:
How much BTC is entering Core?
Because if the future BTC bull market truly kicks off, BTC holders will develop an increasingly strong demand:
"Besides price appreciation, can my BTC generate yield?"
This is exactly Core's opportunity. Exploding❗ Samsung is about to launch the largest shareholder return plan in the history of Korean companies. $SAMSUNG According to informed media sources, Samsung Electronics will officially announce a major shareholder return plan this Friday, with a total scale of up to 110 trillion KRW, equivalent to 79 billion USD, with an estimated range of 90-110 trillion KRW. The board meeting is scheduled to be held after the Korean stock market closes, and the full details will be announced immediately after. The news has already ignited the market. On Thursday, Samsung surged more than 9% in a single day, and continued to rise 3.14% during intraday trading after opening on Friday. The market got an early tip: Samsung plans to return 50% of free cash flow to shareholders, mainly in the form of cash dividends, while also discussing the distribution of special dividends. The underlying logic behind this bold move: 1. AI storage dividends, earning huge profits. In Q2 2026, Samsung directly set a new record for single-quarter profit, with an operating profit of 89.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 1814%. Almost all profits come from the explosive demand for AI server high-bandwidth storage chips, holding a massive amount of cash. 2. Competitive pressure from SK Hynix. Just this Wednesday, SK Hynix took the lead in proposing a 40 trillion KRW stock buyback plan. The two storage giants have started a shareholder return competition; if Samsung's move is too small, funds will easily flow to Hynix. 3. Long-term undervaluation forcing management concessions. For a long time, Samsung's dividend payout ratio has been low, holding large cash flows, but shareholders received very limited returns. After making big money in the AI cycle, institutional investors strongly urgeLet me show you the real power of the debt reduction master, Old Xian and his wife. Many people talk about US debt focusing on yields, but the true strength of the debt reduction master lies in the net price. The chart below shows the net price of 30-year US Treasury bonds; the price issued in 2020 was 100, and now the net price is 47.
Who bought the 100-dollar long-term US bonds in 2020? Japan, the UK, and these allied suckers. The US version of YCC by the debt reduction master essentially means that when these allied suckers can no longer hold on, funds are massively shifted out from short-term debt to buy back and cancel the long-term bonds halved to 47. Buying low and selling high nets a profit of 53. This is basically telling the old and new players on Wall Street that the iron bottom for US Treasury net price is 47, and above that, you can freely harvest those allied sucker bonds without fear of being bitten back.
Some say Old Xian's quota is only 4 billion, which is useless against the total debt of 40 trillion. Then I ask, during 9/24, how much was the securities swap facility thrown out by the Fed? 500 billion. What is the total market cap of the big A shares in 2024? 8.5 trillion. Do you believe it? Is the real power of 9/24 really 500 billion? Obviously not. The real value of 9/24 is the Fed's statement, "If it's not enough, we can add more."BTC re-enters 70K, now the key is price holding power after the short squeeze energy is exhausted. Is there actually buying power defending 70K after the short liquidations end? The key facts confirmed from the original post are as follows. - BTC surged from about 64K to recover 70K. - In this process, more than $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated, acting as the upward momentum. - The current point is where the short squeeze effect is cooling down, and confirming support at 70K will determine the next step. A short squeeze is a structural feedback where forced liquidation of derivative positions leads to spot buying. The $2.7 billion short liquidation created temporary buying pressure, but this was not spontaneous market demand but forced position closure. Therefore, whether spot buying defending 70K appears after the liquidations end is the turning point for trend continuation. If 70K turns into support, the 71K-72K range, where short positions have accumulated again, could be the next target. Conversely, if 70K breaks down, this rise will be temporary due to leverage liquidation The scale keeps expanding, but the speed of making money has clearly slowed down. Has POPMART started to decline? It's reasonable to be bearish in the long term!
The most interesting part of the semi-annual report is not that revenue is still growing, but that income grew by 23.8%, while profit only increased by 10.1%.
In simple terms, the business is still growing, but the speed of making money can no longer keep up with revenue growth.
LABUBU went to the World Cup, but POPMART's growth has clearly shifted gears!
THE MONSTERS, which owns LABUBU, had revenue of ¥4.45 billion in the first half of the year, down 7.5% year-on-year.
But Star People exploded directly, with revenue of ¥2.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 580.6%, instantly becoming the second largest IP.
This actually exposes POPMART's real problem now: POPMART needs to constantly create the next LABUBU.
If an IP becomes popular, the company grows rapidly; if the IP cools down, growth shifts gears accordingly, so the valuation naturally becomes more dependent on "the next hit."
But if Star People, plush products, and more IPs can continue to take over, then POPMART is selling not just individual toys, but a capability to continuously create hits.
What needs to be watched now is not whether LABUBU can become popular again.
But whether POPMART can prove that it is not making money from just one IP, but truly has the ability to continuously create IPs. However, this seems not so easy to achieve!
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $POPMART Fundamental Research Report $XLM / Stellar (Established/Litecoin lineage) $3.20
Essentially: Stellar ($XLM) overall score 49/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
Stellar (token $XLM), an established project in the Litecoin lineage track. Focused on cross-border payments as a veteran player. Competitors include XRP and TRX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, with users lacking data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500 per month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User metrics: MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized—no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing referenced from PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales from whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration evidenced by API/SDK access (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparisons): circulating market cap: Stellar $3.00B, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. FDV: Stellar $4.20B, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Annual revenue: Stellar $2.00M, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Stellar undisclosed, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view doubles revenue, burn implementation, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources for reference only, not investment advice. Indicator deviations over 30% require reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitBTC quietly returned to $72,700 last night, but what really caught my attention was that after the rise, it didn’t immediately crash like before. Have you noticed that the US stock market falls while crypto rises? This decoupling has happened several times in a row. Last night, the Nasdaq dropped about 1% again, the S&P fell 0.87%, US Treasury yields climbed back up, and oil prices remain high. The slight easing brought by Treasury buybacks seems to be fading. Traditional markets are clearly catching their breath, but crypto seems oblivious—BTC still rose about 4% in 24 hours. This is not a small matter; it indicates that the money buying crypto and the money buying US stocks may no longer be exactly the same group. - Capital preferences are quietly shifting: from "following US stocks" to "driven by independent narratives" - Policy support is a key foundation: the CLARITY Act continues to advance, and the White House met with crypto industry leaders a couple of days ago, maintaining a bottoming sentiment - ETH broke through $2,300 yesterday, showing more resilience than BTC and starting to find its own rhythm - XRP rose over 12% in 24 hours last night, with BNB and LINK following suit, clearly showing capital spreading from BTC to the periphery Yesterday, watching the market, my biggest impression was: BTC is responsible for stabilizing the front line, ETH for probing space, and altcoins for creating profit opportunities. This clear division of labor in the market is often healthier than a one-sided rally because it shows that capital is not panic-driven clustering but selectively allocating positions. However, there are a few points I want to remind myself of and also remind you: 🔥BTC surged from 64,000 to 75,000 in three days: This rally wasn’t driven by Trump alone, stop blaming the wrong person
$BTC
On August 21 intraday, BTC surged near $75,000, fluctuating repeatedly between 74,594 and 75,120, with a cumulative three-day increase of about 15%. But if you only look at the White House crypto summit and think this rally is a “Trump bull run,” you’re being deceived by appearances—this wave is a three-layer structure exploding together:
Bond market ignited first: On August 19, the U.S. Treasury doubled the repurchase scale of 10–30 year long bonds “at least,” pushing long-term yields down; on the same day, BTC started its breakout from 64,000. The logic is “pressing the long end = loosening liquidity = risk asset revaluation.”
ETF followed up with aggressive buying: From August 17–19, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1 billion over three consecutive days, with $517 million on August 19 alone, a three-month high. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $285 million, with total historical net inflows surpassing $61.6 billion.
On-chain accumulation has been quietly happening: According to CryptoQuant data, over the past 60 days, large holders have net increased their BTC holdings by about 43,000 BTC ≈ $2.75 billion; mid-sized holders with 100–1,000 BTC and super whales holding over 10,000 BTC are buying simultaneously. This isn’t retail FOMO; it’s a structure laid near 60,000. $BTC This round of crypto market rebound was driven by early speculation on the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. All major macroeconomic data released this week fully met expectations. The Fed meeting minutes were hawkish, combined with employment and manufacturing data significantly exceeding expectations, quickly shattering the rate cut fantasy. High interest rates will persist longer, and the core logic supporting this rally no longer exists. After a sustained rise, a large amount of short-term profit-taking positions have accumulated. Following the market rule of buying on expectations and selling on facts, without new positive catalysts, profit-taking funds are exiting, laying the foundation for a market correction. On the market front, BTC's previous rise was driven by short covering; incremental buying is fading, upward momentum is exhausted, and a likely scenario is a sideways downward correction to digest profits. ETH closely follows BTC's trend, with greater downside elasticity during the correction phase. Most altcoins will follow the overall market pullback; a few, like TRUMP, with strong token structures, have opportunities for localized independent rallies but cannot resist systemic market downturn risks. Although multiple crypto policies are still pending, bills are easily delayed and can only bring short-term market pulses, unlikely to change the current macro pressure pattern. Summary of market outlook: 1. Macro expectations have been realized, upward driving forces have disappeared, and a short-term correction window has officially opened; avoid blindly chasing highs. 2. At this stage, prioritize guarding against systemic risks, moderately reduce positions, and avoid selling pressure on high-level tokens. 3. Closely monitor BTC's key support levels; if support holds, a range-bound consolidation will occur; if broken effectively, a deeper correction will begin. 4. Even if optimistic about altcoins with independent logic, it is necessary toLAB real-time market data analysis on August 21 at 13:45
Current price is $0.0842, with a 24-hour increase of about +4.13%. After the panic crash caused by large-scale token concentration deposits to exchanges in the previous period, the current situation is a weak rebound after overselling, with overall weak rebound volume.
Key price levels: first support at 0.0775, strong support at 0.0710‑0.0730; short-term resistance at 0.0912 (intraday high). After breaking through, the upper target is in the 0.103‑0.108 range.
Contract level: The contract turnover in the past 24 hours has shrunk significantly compared to the previous peak, indicating low short-term capital participation willingness. The on-site long-short ratio slightly favors longs, mostly short-term funds speculating on oversold rebounds. Long-term main funds have not yet returned. The market shows frequent spikes and extremely high volatility risk.
Capital level: Previously, large addresses related to the project consolidated tokens accounting for nearly 43.4% of the circulating supply and deposited them to exchanges, leaving a psychological shadow of continuous selling pressure on the market and damaging long-term capital confidence. This rebound is mainly driven by trapped funds entering to speculate on oversold recovery. Without new major narrative catalysts, it is difficult to restart the previous main upward trend. To initiate a new round of sustained rally, large-scale selling pressure needs to be absorbed, and new narrative hotspots must emerge to take over.
Overall, at this stage, it is only an oversold rebound with insufficient bullish momentum. The market fluctuates repeatedly, and the risk of chasing highs has significantly increased.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ENA is considered by Arthur Hayes as a 5x play this season, what could be the driving force?
From the bottom at 0.07 I mentioned on 8/13, $ENA has now bounced up to 0.1251, increasing over 7% in just one session, confirming the point that after a 90% drop from the peak, it only takes capital flow returning to trigger a strong rebound.
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch The U.S. Treasury may repurchase more than $4 billion each period, and a rare change is beginning to appear in the U.S. Treasury market. The U.S. Treasury just increased the repurchase scale of 10–30 year bonds from about $2 billion to at least $4 billion each period. Today, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen clearly stated: if necessary, this number can continue to rise. Why should Crypto pay attention to this? Because the current problem in the U.S. is not short-term interest rates, but that long-term borrowing is becoming increasingly expensive. The 30-year Treasury yield recently surged to near the highest level since 2007, putting pressure on mortgages, corporate financing, and tech stock valuations. What the Treasury is doing now, simply put, is buying back long-term bonds to try to push down long-end yields. This is also one of the important macro backgrounds for BTC's recent sudden acceleration: long bond yields falling, the dollar weakening, and funds being more willing to re-enter gold and Crypto. But there is a very big conflict here: after the Treasury's repurchase, the 30-year yield rebounded to about 5.25%, and the 10-year yield is also around 4.71%. This indicates the market is saying: $4 billion can save liquidity but cannot solve the $40 trillion U.S. debt and high inflation. So what we really need to watch next is not "how much more the Treasury will buy." Rather: if repurchases continue to expand, can long bond yields truly be pushed down? If they can be suppressed, the macro environment for BTC and gold will continue to improve; if not, this rally will face high interest rate pressure again