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The scale keeps expanding, but the speed of making money has clearly slowed down. Has POPMART started to decline? It's reasonable to be bearish in the long term!
The most interesting part of the semi-annual report is not that revenue is still growing, but that income grew by 23.8%, while profit only increased by 10.1%.
In simple terms, the business is still growing, but the speed of making money can no longer keep up with revenue growth.
LABUBU went to the World Cup, but POPMART's growth has clearly shifted gears!
THE MONSTERS, which owns LABUBU, had revenue of ¥4.45 billion in the first half of the year, down 7.5% year-on-year.
But Star People exploded directly, with revenue of ¥2.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 580.6%, instantly becoming the second largest IP.
This actually exposes POPMART's real problem now: POPMART needs to constantly create the next LABUBU.
If an IP becomes popular, the company grows rapidly; if the IP cools down, growth shifts gears accordingly, so the valuation naturally becomes more dependent on "the next hit."
But if Star People, plush products, and more IPs can continue to take over, then POPMART is selling not just individual toys, but a capability to continuously create hits.
What needs to be watched now is not whether LABUBU can become popular again.
But whether POPMART can prove that it is not making money from just one IP, but truly has the ability to continuously create IPs. However, this seems not so easy to achieve!
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $POPMART Fundamental Research Report $XLM / Stellar (Established/Litecoin lineage) $3.20
Essentially: Stellar ($XLM) overall score 49/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
Stellar (token $XLM), an established project in the Litecoin lineage track. Focused on cross-border payments as a veteran player. Competitors include XRP and TRX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, with users lacking data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500 per month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User metrics: MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized—no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing referenced from PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales from whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration evidenced by API/SDK access (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparisons): circulating market cap: Stellar $3.00B, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. FDV: Stellar $4.20B, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Annual revenue: Stellar $2.00M, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Stellar undisclosed, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view doubles revenue, burn implementation, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources for reference only, not investment advice. Indicator deviations over 30% require reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitBTC quietly returned to $72,700 last night, but what really caught my attention was that after the rise, it didn’t immediately crash like before. Have you noticed that the US stock market falls while crypto rises? This decoupling has happened several times in a row. Last night, the Nasdaq dropped about 1% again, the S&P fell 0.87%, US Treasury yields climbed back up, and oil prices remain high. The slight easing brought by Treasury buybacks seems to be fading. Traditional markets are clearly catching their breath, but crypto seems oblivious—BTC still rose about 4% in 24 hours. This is not a small matter; it indicates that the money buying crypto and the money buying US stocks may no longer be exactly the same group. - Capital preferences are quietly shifting: from "following US stocks" to "driven by independent narratives" - Policy support is a key foundation: the CLARITY Act continues to advance, and the White House met with crypto industry leaders a couple of days ago, maintaining a bottoming sentiment - ETH broke through $2,300 yesterday, showing more resilience than BTC and starting to find its own rhythm - XRP rose over 12% in 24 hours last night, with BNB and LINK following suit, clearly showing capital spreading from BTC to the periphery Yesterday, watching the market, my biggest impression was: BTC is responsible for stabilizing the front line, ETH for probing space, and altcoins for creating profit opportunities. This clear division of labor in the market is often healthier than a one-sided rally because it shows that capital is not panic-driven clustering but selectively allocating positions. However, there are a few points I want to remind myself of and also remind you: 🔥BTC surged from 64,000 to 75,000 in three days: This rally wasn’t driven by Trump alone, stop blaming the wrong person
$BTC
On August 21 intraday, BTC surged near $75,000, fluctuating repeatedly between 74,594 and 75,120, with a cumulative three-day increase of about 15%. But if you only look at the White House crypto summit and think this rally is a “Trump bull run,” you’re being deceived by appearances—this wave is a three-layer structure exploding together:
Bond market ignited first: On August 19, the U.S. Treasury doubled the repurchase scale of 10–30 year long bonds “at least,” pushing long-term yields down; on the same day, BTC started its breakout from 64,000. The logic is “pressing the long end = loosening liquidity = risk asset revaluation.”
ETF followed up with aggressive buying: From August 17–19, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1 billion over three consecutive days, with $517 million on August 19 alone, a three-month high. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $285 million, with total historical net inflows surpassing $61.6 billion.
On-chain accumulation has been quietly happening: According to CryptoQuant data, over the past 60 days, large holders have net increased their BTC holdings by about 43,000 BTC ≈ $2.75 billion; mid-sized holders with 100–1,000 BTC and super whales holding over 10,000 BTC are buying simultaneously. This isn’t retail FOMO; it’s a structure laid near 60,000. $BTC This round of crypto market rebound was driven by early speculation on the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. All major macroeconomic data released this week fully met expectations. The Fed meeting minutes were hawkish, combined with employment and manufacturing data significantly exceeding expectations, quickly shattering the rate cut fantasy. High interest rates will persist longer, and the core logic supporting this rally no longer exists. After a sustained rise, a large amount of short-term profit-taking positions have accumulated. Following the market rule of buying on expectations and selling on facts, without new positive catalysts, profit-taking funds are exiting, laying the foundation for a market correction. On the market front, BTC's previous rise was driven by short covering; incremental buying is fading, upward momentum is exhausted, and a likely scenario is a sideways downward correction to digest profits. ETH closely follows BTC's trend, with greater downside elasticity during the correction phase. Most altcoins will follow the overall market pullback; a few, like TRUMP, with strong token structures, have opportunities for localized independent rallies but cannot resist systemic market downturn risks. Although multiple crypto policies are still pending, bills are easily delayed and can only bring short-term market pulses, unlikely to change the current macro pressure pattern. Summary of market outlook: 1. Macro expectations have been realized, upward driving forces have disappeared, and a short-term correction window has officially opened; avoid blindly chasing highs. 2. At this stage, prioritize guarding against systemic risks, moderately reduce positions, and avoid selling pressure on high-level tokens. 3. Closely monitor BTC's key support levels; if support holds, a range-bound consolidation will occur; if broken effectively, a deeper correction will begin. 4. Even if optimistic about altcoins with independent logic, it is necessary toLAB real-time market data analysis on August 21 at 13:45
Current price is $0.0842, with a 24-hour increase of about +4.13%. After the panic crash caused by large-scale token concentration deposits to exchanges in the previous period, the current situation is a weak rebound after overselling, with overall weak rebound volume.
Key price levels: first support at 0.0775, strong support at 0.0710‑0.0730; short-term resistance at 0.0912 (intraday high). After breaking through, the upper target is in the 0.103‑0.108 range.
Contract level: The contract turnover in the past 24 hours has shrunk significantly compared to the previous peak, indicating low short-term capital participation willingness. The on-site long-short ratio slightly favors longs, mostly short-term funds speculating on oversold rebounds. Long-term main funds have not yet returned. The market shows frequent spikes and extremely high volatility risk.
Capital level: Previously, large addresses related to the project consolidated tokens accounting for nearly 43.4% of the circulating supply and deposited them to exchanges, leaving a psychological shadow of continuous selling pressure on the market and damaging long-term capital confidence. This rebound is mainly driven by trapped funds entering to speculate on oversold recovery. Without new major narrative catalysts, it is difficult to restart the previous main upward trend. To initiate a new round of sustained rally, large-scale selling pressure needs to be absorbed, and new narrative hotspots must emerge to take over.
Overall, at this stage, it is only an oversold rebound with insufficient bullish momentum. The market fluctuates repeatedly, and the risk of chasing highs has significantly increased.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ENA is considered by Arthur Hayes as a 5x play this season, what could be the driving force?
From the bottom at 0.07 I mentioned on 8/13, $ENA has now bounced up to 0.1251, increasing over 7% in just one session, confirming the point that after a 90% drop from the peak, it only takes capital flow returning to trigger a strong rebound.
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch The U.S. Treasury may repurchase more than $4 billion each period, and a rare change is beginning to appear in the U.S. Treasury market. The U.S. Treasury just increased the repurchase scale of 10–30 year bonds from about $2 billion to at least $4 billion each period. Today, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen clearly stated: if necessary, this number can continue to rise. Why should Crypto pay attention to this? Because the current problem in the U.S. is not short-term interest rates, but that long-term borrowing is becoming increasingly expensive. The 30-year Treasury yield recently surged to near the highest level since 2007, putting pressure on mortgages, corporate financing, and tech stock valuations. What the Treasury is doing now, simply put, is buying back long-term bonds to try to push down long-end yields. This is also one of the important macro backgrounds for BTC's recent sudden acceleration: long bond yields falling, the dollar weakening, and funds being more willing to re-enter gold and Crypto. But there is a very big conflict here: after the Treasury's repurchase, the 30-year yield rebounded to about 5.25%, and the 10-year yield is also around 4.71%. This indicates the market is saying: $4 billion can save liquidity but cannot solve the $40 trillion U.S. debt and high inflation. So what we really need to watch next is not "how much more the Treasury will buy." Rather: if repurchases continue to expand, can long bond yields truly be pushed down? If they can be suppressed, the macro environment for BTC and gold will continue to improve; if not, this rally will face high interest rate pressure again Pop Mart’s latest results tell a more complicated story. 📊
Revenue hit ¥17.17B, up 23.8%, but net profit rose only 10.1%—growth is still strong, but profitability is slowing.
The bigger question is whether new IPs like Star People can fill the gap as LABUBU cools off. Six IPs generating over ¥100M is encouraging, but overseas weakness shows the global expansion story still needs proof.
Pop Mart is growing, but the next stage is about IP durability, margins, and overseas execution. #财报观察员: Pop Mart shifts gears in growth, can multiple IPs take over?
A cliff-like 12% plunge: Baidu kills its own “cash cow,” is AI this powerful medicine a cure or poison?
Baidu has delivered a financial report that makes people break out in a cold sweat.
Once the report was released, the US stock market immediately responded with a clean and sharp drop—pre-market and subsequent trading days saw the stock price plunge 12.7%.
The air is filled with the sour taste of “tears of the times.”
Looking only at the surface numbers, total revenue was ¥31.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 4%, seemingly still within a “pain zone” that people can barely accept. But if you flip to the core business page of the report, you’ll find the real blow hidden beneath the surface:
The once rock-solid, day-and-night milk-producing “cash cow”—online marketing service revenue (i.e., advertising)—plummeted 19%, down to only ¥13.1 billion.
Meanwhile, Baidu App’s monthly active users (MAU) have slid from their past peak to about 640 million.
On one side, AI business is booming in the report, with infrastructure fully deployed; on the other, traditional advertising business is hemorrhaging precipitously.
This scene is like a middle-aged man biting the bullet to keep up with the youth trend, smashing the luxury car that made him wealthy and replacing it with an electric-burning race car.
To survive the life-and-death trial of the AI era, it had to personally slaughter its own advertising cash cow to sacrifice for that uncertain future. $BTC DOGE's recent surge is a textbook whale trap: first sweeping stop losses on short positions between 0.071–0.076, then a spike up to 0.0835, with social media shouting "breakout" to lure retail investors to chase higher.
On-chain data shows an average buy-in at 0.0835, with all the chasing volume buried above; old whales' semi-dormant addresses are transferring coins to exchanges, and spot taker sell volume is outweighing buy volume.
60%–70% of circulating supply is held by fewer than 200 giant whales. This is not a resistance breakout but a liquidity-driven dump to rescue positions.
Chasing above 0.0835 means paying whales a bailout fee; only if the price holds above 0.071 on the pullback is it worth watching.Yili Hua: Bitcoin Has Ended the Bear Market Trend, Still Bullish for the Next Two Weeks
Yili Hua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), wrote that since judging the rebound ended in May, his main focus over the past two months has been one thing: July to August may be the last bottom-fishing opportunity for this BTC cycle. With Bitcoin's daily chart strongly breaking through the 120-day and 200-day moving averages, and the weekly chart breaking through the 20-week moving average, the BTC bear market trend has officially ended.
He stated that the market is still bullish for the next two weeks, but a pullback may occur after rising to a certain level. The subsequent pullback will not exceed 50% of the rise. If investors use leverage, it is recommended to close long positions and refer to the weekly chart trends and pullback ranges during the 2023 bull cycle.
In this cycle, Bitcoin fell from a high of 126,000 USD to 57,000 USD, a maximum drop of about 56%. He believes this drop has formed a cycle low, and it will be difficult for the market to see BTC prices starting with 50,000 USD again.$BTC I just used floating profits to add several more positions in batches. To start with the conclusion: this time is not illogical, but the logic is only halfway done—the direction is well-founded, the position is aggressive, the risk structure has clearly deteriorated, and the risk-reward ratio is inadequate. From the market perspective, the 1-hour and 15-minute moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, with the PDI significantly above the MDI, and the trend has not yet reversed; The 5-minute price is still holding near WMA20. Therefore, I am not betting against the trend by following the trend. But the problem lies in timing. This increase occurred near the 75,200–75,300 resistance zone. After a brief 15-minute spike to 75,494, it quickly pulled back, indicating that the selling pressure above has not been truly digested. Meanwhile, the 1-hour RSI is around 76.5, indicating a strong but somewhat hot state. Adding positions now feels more like rushing to break through previous highs and below, rather than waiting for a pullback after the breakout is confirmed. The changes in position positions are even more noteworthy: the original nominal position amount was about 19,230, which expanded to about 32,092 after the addition, an increase of nearly 67%; The average opening price rose from about 75,188.9 to 75,213.8, and the breakeven price increased to about 75,289.2. Most importantly, the strong flat line has moved up from 73,759.9 to 74,510.4. Based on the current 75,130 points, the original strong flattening buffer was about 1,370 points, now down to about 620 points, reducing the safety margin by approximately 55%. On the surface, I am using floating profits to increase my position, but in reality, I am returning the safety cushion I have already gained back to the market. Floating Excess Never Was"🚀 $DOGE — LONG SETUP 🟢
📍 Entry: 0.08256
🎯 TP1: 0.08450
🎯 TP2: 0.08700
🎯 TP3: 0.09100
🛑 SL: 0.07950
The bullish structure remains intact as buyers defend the entry zone. A renewed momentum push could send DOGE toward the next resistance levels. Stay disciplined and manage risk.#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch BTC just ripped from $64K to $73K, while ETH pushed above $2,340. And the liquidation numbers are insane: around $3.3B wiped out, with shorts making up roughly 92% of the damage. 🔥
But don’t get trapped by the “$160B entered the market” narrative.
This looks much more like a massive short squeeze than a wave of fresh spot capital. Forced short covering can make the chart look unstoppable—until the forced buying runs out.
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
I think the current wave of rally has a somewhat shaky fund relay.
Rising from 64,000 to 75,000 in three days looks fierce, but I think it’s more like shorts being collectively buried (over $3 billion in short liquidations), pushed up by passive buying, not real money chasing.
Several key signals are not good:
1. No significant new long positions entering in perpetual contracts, the short squeeze engine is about to stall.
2. On the ETF side, although over $500 million flowed in a single day, overall it’s still at a floating loss (average price around 82,000), so the pressure to sell to break even remains.
3. Short-term holders have already started transferring coins to exchanges to lock in profits.
Trading suggestions:
- Bitcoin: Don’t chase the highs. I think a light long position can be tried on a pullback to the 70,400-70,800 range, targeting around 72,500, with a firm stop loss below 69,500.
- Ethereum: Follow Bitcoin but with greater volatility. If Bitcoin holds steady, Ethereum’s support near 2,200 can be watched for a rebound.
Next, focus on spot buying and ETF net inflows; if they don’t pick up, this wave is likely just a pulse move.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin broke through $70,000 on August 20, reaching a new high since early June, and once climbed above $72,000. As of August 21, BTC's highest point reached about $73,800, with a weekly increase expanding to about 17%.
🚀 Why the sudden surge?
1. U.S. Treasury repo lowers long-term yields
The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repos, causing the 30-year yield to fall from its high. The decline in interest rates improves liquidity expectations, attracting funds to "hard assets" like gold and Bitcoin.
2. Trump strengthens crypto policy expectations
Trump urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act and signaled the government might further purchase Bitcoin, significantly reducing market uncertainty about U.S. crypto regulation.
3. Short sellers forced to cover, accelerating the rise
After BTC broke through key round-number resistance, a large number of short stops/liquidations were triggered, further amplifying the rally. Data shows daily crypto market short liquidations reached billions of dollars. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over? Personal opinion
BTC has entered a short-term accelerated rally phase, with the market showing obvious short squeeze characteristics. A large number of short positions have been liquidated, passively pushing up the coin price, which has quickly warmed the overall market risk sentiment. However, whether the rally can continue depends not on the short-term gains but on whether incremental funds can take over the baton after the short squeeze.
Part of the momentum for this round of rise comes from short covering. A large number of previously accumulated short orders were triggered for forced liquidation at key resistance levels, and the buybacks from closing positions created a positive feedback loop that amplified the gains. This is a battle of existing funds, not a new influx of long positions. The encouraging sign is that spot ETFs have seen a phase of inflows, with large net inflows in a single day, and institutional buying has returned, providing real support for the market. But it is important to distinguish that a single-day large inflow is different from sustained capital entry; one large inflow cannot be equated directly with a complete reversal of the capital trend.
Currently, the market has formed obvious divergences. The optimistic view holds that regulatory bill expectations combined with marginal easing of macro inflation, loosening of high US Treasury yields, and reopening of the crypto asset allocation window will lead to ETF funds warming up and starting a new main upward trend. The cautious view warns that after the short squeeze rally, a large amount of short positions have been cleared, and there are no more shorts to provide passive buying. If ETF inflows quickly decline, it will be difficult to maintain the high levels relying only on retail sentiment, and after short-term overbought conditions, a profit-taking pullback pressure may come at any time. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ There might be some good news for those looking to withdraw funds; you might want to wait a little longer.
┈➤ 800 billion RMB is about to be selectively released.
First, this is not QE, nor is it a liquidity injection. But the funds come from idle commercial bank reserves, so there will be some liquidity released.
Second, the scale of 800 billion RMB is quite small, so its impact on the exchange rate will be minimal.
Third, this portion of funds is targeted for the AI and digital economy sectors, so it may not flow into the international market.
Fourth, however, this could have some effect on market sentiment and expectations.
To recall, last year this policy-driven fund release started in late September and was completed by the end of October. At the same time, the Fed cut interest rates in September last year, with expectations of further cuts in Q4. Between September 24 and October 24 last year, the USD/CNY exchange rate did see a slight upward movement.
Last year 500 billion was released; this year it's 800 billion. The US is unlikely to cut rates this year.
┈➤ The US Treasury is accelerating the buyback of US debt.
From September 9 to November 4, this action, while not enough to completely reverse the dollar's trend, should have some short-term impact.
┈➤ The trend of USDT
Last year, U/USD traded mostly at a premium; this year, it has mostly been at a discount. The price of U is also related to market conditions. BTC has broken $75,000, and USDT is also showing an upward trend.
In summary, U is not guaranteed to rise 100%, but at least in the short term (within one month), it should stabilize.After the rapid surge and celebration of BTC, how much longer can the funds continue to follow through?
$BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
The low-volatility market that had been silent for months was completely ended overnight.
BTC powerfully broke through multiple layers of resistance, standing above the $75,000 mark, tearing apart the long-term narrow-range consolidation pattern. The most direct driver of this surge was a large-scale short squeeze, with nearly $3 billion liquidated across the entire network within 24 hours. A large number of crowded short positions were forced to stop losses, causing passive buying to flood in and forcibly pushing the price higher.
The positive factors are not limited to contract short squeezes; spot funds have already genuinely flowed back. On August 19, the net inflow of BTC+ETH spot ETFs in the US market reached as high as $706 million in a single day. Institutional buying, absent for a long time, re-entered the market, laying a spot foundation for this round of rise, no longer just a fleeting spike driven by contract leverage.
However, market divergences are now fully exposed:
Some are confident this is a trend recovery brought by a regulatory turning point and liquidity warming, with the consolidation bottom completely finished and a new upward cycle beginning;
Others remain highly cautious, believing this is merely a short-term overextension of a squeeze. Once the shorts are fully liquidated, without new funds to follow, volume will lag, profit-taking at high levels will occur, and the market could easily see a significant pullback.
We need to recognize two core key points:
1. The first wave of this rally was mostly driven by short covering. Now that many low-position shorts have exited, continuing strength must rely on sustained net inflows from ETFs, incremental stablecoin funds, and retail off-exchange capital working together.
2. If volume continues to shrink and market heat fades, the long-position leverage accumulated at high levels will become the fuse for a new round of intense volatility, greatly increasing the risk of a sharp pullback after the surge.
Core practical strategy for the future:
Do not blindly chase the acceleration. Holders should gradually set break-even stop profits to protect hard-earned gains; observers need not rush to enter, but wait for a pullback to key support and clear volume structure before judging opportunities.
The celebration will eventually pause. The faster the market moves, the more we need to steady the pace and rationally view this surge, avoiding letting short-term frenzy disrupt trading rhythm.
Risk reminder: The content is for market analysis and communication only and does not constitute any investment advice Market Observation:
Such consistent ETF net inflows haven't been seen for a long time.
I was focused on watching the market, trading, and chasing news the past few days, which made me overlook the ETF capital flows.
Looking back, before BTC started on August 19, there was actually a very clear signal:
BTC, ETH, and SOL all showed ETF net inflows simultaneously.
And around 8 PM that same day, BTC officially started its move.
Looking back today, the signal has become even clearer.
Besides BTC, ETH, and SOL, related ETF funds like HYPE, LINK, DOGE, and XRP have also successively shown net inflows.
ETF Signal:
The key is not how much capital flows into a single coin, but that the funds are starting to show directional consistency.
This phenomenon often appears when market risk appetite noticeably warms up and capital re-embraces crypto assets.
Of course, ETF net inflows don't mean the market will only rise without falling, but at least it shows institutional funds are not clearly retreating and are instead supporting trend continuation.
Capital Flow:
Overall, current funds show a certain resonance characteristic:
* BTC, ETH, and SOL are the first to show sustained net inflows
* Then it spreads to mainstream and hot assets like HYPE, LINK, DOGE, and XRP
* Funds are no longer acting on isolated points but flowing synchronously at the sector level
This "diffusive inflow" usually means market sentiment is shifting from cautious to positive.
Trading Strategy:
So my core idea at this stage is simple:
$BTC $OKB $SOL
Do not short against the trend.
Do not short against the trend.
Do not short against the trend.
Unless there is a clear reversal signal on the chart, there is no need to easily bet on a top due to short-term fluctuations.
Operationally, I prefer to wait for BTC to pull back before going long:
* Small divergence, watch for support
* Large divergence, wait for a second test
* After confirming the second test, wait for consolidation breakout
As long as the trend is intact, following the trend is more important than guessing the top.
The above is only my personal trading record and market observation #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Ford in 2026 is doing something very similar to what it did 120 years ago: moving mature manufacturing capabilities into a newly emerging large market. This time, the target is no longer limited to automobiles. In May this year, Ford officially launched Ford Energy, planning to invest about $2 billion to convert existing battery capacity in Kentucky into an energy storage system factory, with deliveries starting at the end of 2027 and a target annual capacity of at least 20 GWh. Customers include power companies, data centers, and large industrial enterprises. Subsequently, it signed a five-year framework agreement with EDF Power Solutions, under which the latter can purchase up to 4 GWh annually, with a potential total of 20 GWh over five years. AI data centers compete for electricity, and the global grid needs to absorb more wind and solar power; energy storage has transformed from a new energy accessory to a fundamental infrastructure for the digital economy. Battery factories, once burdened by electric vehicle investments, now have an outlet toward AI capital expenditures. Ford's revenue in Q2 this year was $48.3 billion, with adjusted EBIT of $2.5 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase; adjusted free cash flow was $2.1 billion, and total liquidity exceeded $43 billion. The company also raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10 billion to $11 billion. These figures look like the normal financial report of a long-established industrial company. Rewind to 2008, Ford was uncertain even whether it could keep the blue oval trademark. The king of assembly lines was first trapped by its own scale. 1908Reasons for Bitcoin's surge! Found it!!! $BTC
This wave seems inexplicable but is actually the result of three combined factors:
1. Too many shorts, this wave directly turned into a short squeeze
In the past few months, Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to just over $60,000, with almost every rebound being crushed.
After such a long decline, the market formed a very consistent consensus:
A rebound means shorting.
So short positions became increasingly crowded, and leverage piled up higher and higher.
The problem is, when everyone is shorting, little do they realize that forced liquidation = buying to close long positions = pushing prices up 📈
After BTC broke through, the first batch of high-leverage shorts started liquidating. Short liquidations mean the trading platform must buy back BTC to close positions, so:
Price rises → short liquidations → forced buying → continued rise → more short liquidations. 🫣
⸻
2. A bigger catalyst from the U.S. Treasury
Recently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields surged, and the market's biggest concern was tightening liquidity.
As a result, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, the single liquidity support repo limit for bonds over 10 years will be raised from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, continuing until early November.
This move actually injects liquidity into the market:
Treasury yields fall → dollar weakens → U.S. stocks (risk assets) rise → cryptocurrencies rise. 📈
The reason is simple: when bank interest rates are high, you don't want to invest in risk assets; conversely, low bank interest rates force you to invest and consume 🤓
⸻
3. Trump's late-stage move 🤨
Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Payward, Blockchain, etc., at the White House, reiterating the push to make the U.S. a global digital asset hub.
The SEC also proposed new crypto asset regulations: digital asset projects raising less than xxx in the U.S. are not considered illegal fundraising 🤡
What further stimulated the market was:
Trump said he would consider the regulators' suggestion for the government to increase Bitcoin holdings.
Whether this will actually happen remains to be seen, but for market sentiment, the signal is already clear:
U.S. policy toward Crypto is still moving in a more friendly direction.
Believe in Trump's TACO!!!First, SK Hynix pushed 24.07 million shares onto the board, betting on a sacrifice: 40 trillion KRW is not an expense, but an added permanently mobile pawn chain for the opponent's camp. On Samsung's side, the 9.8 trillion annual dividend is just a routine king-side castling; the real killer move is hidden in the phrase "50% return on cumulative FCF over three years"—that's the promotion tactic buried in the rear pawn formation.
Where is the game? The middle game. AI memory demand is like a pawn advancing straight down the file, its speed changing the entire board's valuation coordinates. Market rumors say Samsung holds a plan worth hundreds of trillions, but the official line is "under review, no set timeline." A grandmaster hears this as: before the real move, he has already chosen his straight flush in the endgame.
Amateurs ask: "Can cash flow simultaneously feed expansion and returns?" Professionals only watch the clock and ask another question: who will transform first in this move?
SK Hynix chooses this moment to cancel capital stock, like actively exchanging the queen in the center, simplifying the board into a king-and-pawn endgame with mutual restrictions; Samsung refuses to reveal its bottom cards, using two bishops to guard two diagonals, luring the opponent's pawns past the fourth rank before counter-capturing. Cash flow is equivalent to initiative: if you don't stack it into offense, it becomes a lone rear pawn you must constantly defend.
And the AI storage board always has only sixty-four squares. The two giants suppress each other on the same pawn chain; one raises its valuation through buybacks, the other stabilizes the king's castle with dividends. Capital only watches who checkmates first. If that hundred-trillion plan is real, it's Samsung's long check cycle; if just a rumor, SK Hynix's sacrificed piece will become a textbook example. Professionals don't predict; they only choose in which endgame to finish.
Samsung is still thinking long. But thinking long is not waiting.
Those afraid to die open with a pawn move; those who will win blindly reach for the pawn about to promote. #SamsungToFollowHynix The barricades still hang the sign "Hot-selling Global Assets," but the safes in the underground vault have already started to pull back—the foreign official institutions added 16 billion to the Fed's foreign reverse repo pool within a week, pushing the total to 373 billion, the highest level since October 2022. This skyscraper called the "Global Financial System" is undergoing a visibly noticeable load transfer. Structural engineers know well that the most dangerous signal in inspection reports is never the swaying of the wind but a sudden change in the moisture content of the foundation soil.
This 56 billion USD is like an undercurrent flushed out from your home's toilet, not flowing into anyone's renovation budget. The foreign reverse repo tool is a settlement observation point only understood by the Fed's forty-year-old supervisors. International major owners who don't buy US bonds, don't dismantle physical projects, and don't increase holdings in money market funds, but put money intact into the reverse repo cement tank, are telling the market: "Brothers, I'm not starting construction; your tower cranes on the site can spin freely, but my money is going back to the safe vault to chill with the air conditioning."
Builders call this a "structural shift in capital risk aversion." The global USD liquidity construction site has underground pipelines more intricate than the blueprints. When the FIMA reverse repo pool doesn't rise, those dollars are working as labor and building materials elsewhere; now, adding 56 billion back in a week means the safety cushion of the entire peripheral market has been pulled away by three inches. Look at those so-called "strong stocks" and "tokenized US equity" K-lines still drawing beautiful load-bearing column patterns, but their reinforcement ratios are quietly being downgraded.
Some will tell you "this is just cash reallocation by foreign official institutions, not affecting US domestic liquidity," which is like a construction foreman explaining to the owner why the rebar spacing exceeds the code. The Fed's balance sheet of over 30 trillion and nearly 400 billion in reverse repo balances are like the lateral pressure on your basement's retaining wall—it doesn't care which side the wall faces, only whether water has entered the soil inside. Where the money flows out from, and under what name it is deposited, affects the equivalent seismic rating of the entire risk asset.
For targets like $xAMZN, watching its daily chart is like standing on an unfinished floor looking at the skyline: a panoramic view of urban sentiment. But we builders don't look at the curtain wall reflections; on rainy days, we touch the moisture of the load-bearing walls. That 56 billion is the first rain. When the basement water level rises, all projects claiming "deep foundations" must re-enter the site for pile foundation testing. Foreign central banks' USD cash is the world's most sensitive design reviewer; they pull funds back from all other options and stack them in the Fed's steel-reinforced safe—translated into engineering language, this action is a "design change": the reinforcement acceptance of peripheral assets was downgraded by one seismic intensity overnight.
So don't just look at the brightly lit tower cranes above ground; look at how much force the underground anchor plates are bearing. The 373 billion reverse repo balance is not observation data; it is water poured into the settlement box of the entire building. The water level is still rising.
#ImpactCycle·Monthly #MacroLiquidity·ForeignRRP #$3,730B·TwoWeeks+$56B #fearandgreedindex$ENA surged significantly today. Many people might wonder why this coin is rising so sharply. Essentially, it's because the crypto market is currently on the rise. $ENA earns funding fees; when the market is good, shorts pay higher fees, and when the market is weak, shorts pay lower fees. If you believe the market will continue to rise, you can definitely chase this coin higher. If you think the market won't continue to rise, then chasing it now is not a very wise move. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that its open interest is continuously increasing, but the long-short ratio is steadily decreasing. This means that currently, a large amount of capital is shorting. Looking at a longer timeframe, we find that the long-short ratio has dropped to a very low bottom, while open interest has risen to a very high level. This indicates that the market sentiment is dominated by shorts at the moment. Under these circumstances, chasing higher is not recommended. —————————————————— I don't want to chase $ENA higher. There are two reasons. One is that I don't believe the market will keep rising, and the other is that the current market sentiment is bearish. I also don't want to short this coin because it hasn't risen much at all—only about twenty to thirty points from the bottom to this level. Shorting wouldn't yield much profit.I firmly hold $UNI and $AAVE — buying on dips and holding all the way until the bull market arrives, aiming for at least 50 to 100 times returns. This is my last chance to turn my life around; I must control my impulses, control my impulses, and control my impulses again. If I miss this highly certain opportunity again, there might really be no next time in this lifetime. I need to keep a steady mindset and must not be scared away by the panic of the bear market or give up halfway. This statement is very representative in the retail investor community, but as market observers, we need to calmly analyze it. First, the expectation of 50 to 100 times is based on the dual assumptions that "a bull market will inevitably come" and "the selected tokens will outperform the market." Historical data shows that blue-chip DeFi protocols like UNI and AAVE did experience several tens of times gains in the last bull market, but that was starting from a very low market cap and accompanied by explosive growth of the entire ecosystem. Their current market cap base is already much larger, making it geometrically more difficult to replicate the same multiples. Second, "buying on dips" sounds simple but is extremely challenging to execute with discipline. The true bottom is often only known in hindsight; buying the bottom halfway up the mountain is the norm. This investor repeatedly emphasizes "controlling impulses," which precisely indicates that emotional management is the biggest enemy. Every rebound in a bear market can be a trap, and every crash can be a golden opportunity. Without a strategy based on fundamentals and risk tolerance, relying solely on willpower to endure can easily lead to collapse before dawn. From a fundamental perspective, UNI andIn my opinion, the most noteworthy news about Nvidia recently is not how many chips it has sold again, but that it is trying to transform "computing power" into a type of infrastructure asset that Wall Street is willing to finance long-term. If this change really works, Nvidia will no longer be just an equipment supplier but will increasingly resemble one of the designers of the entire AI capital expenditure cycle. On August 10, Nvidia announced the establishment of an independent computing power financing platform with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR, aiming to gradually mobilize over $500 billion of third-party capital in the future to build AI infrastructure. To clarify the most easily misunderstood point first: this is not $500 billion already deposited into Nvidia's account, nor is it confirmed sales revenue. The official statement is that multiple platforms will "mobilize" capital in the future, and each specific project still requires independent evaluation by financiers regarding customers, utilization, cash flow, and residual value. My judgment is that this arrangement truly solves the payment method for AI data centers. In the past, customers had to first put up huge capital to purchase servers, land, power, and cooling systems; if computing power equipment can be packaged like airplanes, logistics warehouses, or energy projects into assets with long-term contracts and predictable usage fees, then builders can break down the one-time huge expenditure into longer-term financing. Lower financing thresholds will allow more projects to start earlier and may also partiallyThe four-year cycle investment logic of Bitcoin is actually very simple
Prepare some money you don't need, buy BTC 500 days before each halving, and then sell 500 days after the BTC halving.
Repeat this, and your assets can multiply about 5 times every four years.
Don't underestimate this 5x; compared to real-world physical industries, it's already very good.
$BTC
From a technical perspective, the 200-week MA of $BTC can be simply understood as BTC's intrinsic value. This value was still 58,000 in February, and now at the end of July, it has reached 63,500, an increase of about 10%. Does this mean the risk of missing out at 52,000 is increasing? So I suggest retail investors do dollar-cost averaging.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Anthropic’s IPO case appears to rest on a sharp tension: rapidly scaling enterprise demand versus the economics of supplying compute-intensive AI. Preliminary Q2 revenue above $11.5B and positive adjusted operating profit strengthen the operating narrative, but a projected 2025 net loss near $42B keeps cash efficiency central.
A raise rivaling SpaceX’s record would imply investors are underwriting durable margin expansion, not revenue growth alone. The decisive evidence will be whether enterprise monetization can outpace compute costs as scale rises. Not advice, just analysis.
#AnthropicIPONears🚀Market Outlook for Noon on 8.21🚀
$ETH Strategy:
ETH broke through 2361 with volume on the right side, go long, then retract stop loss.
2311 broke down with volume on the right side, go short with a good stop loss. Retest 2248 to confirm support is valid, add one more long, stop loss if it breaks 2219.
ETH hourly level holds above 2361, looking up to 2387-2426.
Watch for a short position at 2426 above ETH,
stop loss if it breaks 2464.
Left-side spike orders: long at 2177, stop loss if it breaks 2144.
Resistance above: 2361-2387-2426
Support below: 2311-2248-2219
4-hour level breaks 2311, looking down to 2248-2219.
ETH’s triangle pattern has been broken; now watch if ETH can hold the upper boundary of the triangle on the retest. If it holds, expect consolidation between 2358-2289. Only if it falls back inside the triangle is there a chance for a pullback, watch around 2220. Once ETH breaks 2358, it should head straight to 2428! Meeting adjourned.
$DOGE $BTC
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC # Market Update - Aug 21
btc = ">70K"
sol_price = 89.86
ma_stack = [88.26, 86.69, 81.98] # MA5 > MA10 > MA20
if sol_price > all(ma_stack):
trend = "BULLISH"
target = 95
print("SOL to $100 loading? 👀🚀")The $2.6B Solar Roof Fiction
Unveiled on Desperate Housewives with nonworking tiles, marketed to shareholders as a $2.6B $SCTY bailout, and promised at 1,000 roofs a week.
Reality? Roughly 3,000 roofs ever installed—then the numbers disappeared.
Now $TSLA is burying the story.
@GLJ_Research called it unfeasible from day one.
The hype was massive. The roofs weren’t.
#DailyOrbit I doubted 72,000 yesterday, and today BTC stands above 75,000: this time I should admit I was wrong
Yesterday, I took the volume contraction near 72,000 as bearish evidence. Today BTC has reached 75,413, up 8.37% in 24 hours, and I was slow in judging the direction.
But the volume-price divergence still exists: the current trading volume has shrunk by 33.8% compared to the previous window, and the funding rate is only +0.0061%. I will downgrade "volume contraction" from a veto factor to a warning; as long as BTC can continue to hold above 75,000, this breakout should no longer be blocked by old logic.
Would you now reclassify this as a true breakout, or continue to wait for volume? Just give one condition that would make you change your judgment.
Crypto assets are high risk, this article does not constitute investment advice, purely personal opinion.
#OKX星球 #BTC #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
Has the bull market really returned? In my view, it has. BTC and ETH have already reversed the three-stage weekly downtrend. From a macro perspective, although US inflation is still above the 2% target, it has significantly declined compared to before. The US-Iran war has also entered the final bickering phase. The strong rally in the market at this time directly reverses the downtrend, paving the way for the upcoming rate cut cycle. Unless a black swan event occurs, the probability of a continued downtrend is almost zero. Around 60,000 is likely the bottom range for this cycle. Looking back at historical trends, before the 2024 US midterm elections, BTC also took off strongly from around 68,000, with almost no pullback, rising directly to about 100,000. The current stage is somewhat similar, but this does not mean chasing highs at this position. This is just the initial sign. Whether it will truly follow the prediction remains to be seen. What can be confirmed is that the downtrend has been reversed, but the rise is not a straight line. There will still be aftershocks. If it rises too much in a short time, a pullback is certain. You need to catch the point where the upward momentum weakens, not just when it has risen by a certain amount and should fall. For a pullback, 68,000-70,000 is a very critical zone. Overall, the mindset of shorting every small rise in a bear market needs to shift. Buying low-leverage long positions on dips might be more appropriate. $BTC 📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 21)
Bulls and bears completed a strong-weak reversal within 4 hours; bears controlled the market for 12 hours but momentum collapsed; bears had a second outbreak at 24 hours establishing full suppression, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $100,000...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $10.61 $10.61 $0
4 hours $11,500 $10.61 $11,500
12 hours $14,200 $1,608.67 $12,600
24 hours $100,300 $2,185.52 $98,100
From the OKB liquidation data: bulls monopolized the market in 1 hour with zero short liquidations and a tiny volume of only $10.61 as a probe; at 4 hours the direction completely reversed, short liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 1083 times longs, liquidation volume surged to $11,500, shorts took over the game with an extreme posture; at 12 hours the short multiple collapsed to only a 7.8x advantage, liquidation volume slightly rose to $12,600, short momentum sharply declined; at 24 hours shorts had a second outbreak with $98,100 short liquidations versus $2,200 long, shorts were 44.9 times longs, cumulative liquidations broke $100,000. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 14.2% of the 24-hour total, showing very low concentration—new liquidations in the last 12 hours reached $86,100, with shorts completing a full harvest in the latter half of 24 hours with overwhelming force. The short dominance ratio crashed from an extreme 1083x at 4 hours to 7.8x at 12 hours, then rebounded to 44.9x at 24 hours, showing a "V-shaped reversal" in short squeeze momentum; after intense shakeout, shorts re-exploded with stronger posture, establishing absolute dominance over 24 hours. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not blindly chase shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 21
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors in three different tracks—whether Bitcoin's short squeeze can turn into a bull market, whether Anthropic's trillion-dollar valuation can sustain the AI bubble, and whether Pop Mart's IP iteration can transcend cycles.
₿ BTC Accelerates Rally: $3.3 Billion Shorts Vaporized, But Short Squeeze Momentum Is Fading
Bitcoin rose over 14% in two days, breaking $73,000. Over $3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours.
However, market data shows new leveraged long funds have not yet entered on a large scale. This rally is still mainly driven by short covering; perpetual futures open interest has not significantly rebounded. Whether Bitcoin can continue higher increasingly depends on spot buying and ETF inflows taking over. On the 19th, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $517 million, but ETF investors’ average cost is about $82,465, still overall at a loss. After the short squeeze, the real test is just beginning.
🤖 Anthropic Plans to File IPO Documents by End of August: Fundraising May Surpass SpaceX, Valuation Targets $1.5-2 Trillion
Insiders reveal Anthropic expects to publicly submit IPO documents as early as the end of August, with fundraising possibly matching or exceeding SpaceX’s record $75-86.2 billion, targeting a valuation of $1.5-2 trillion.
In May this year, Anthropic completed a $65 billion financing round with a valuation of $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion. By the end of July, annualized revenue exceeded $65 billion.
Founded only five years ago, aiming for the largest IPO in history. When the secondary market prices it at $2 trillion, the market is betting not on current profits but on AI’s complete restructuring of the enterprise market.
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Still First, Star People Soar 580% to Take Over
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan, up 9.5%; gross margin 69.7%. However, revenue was below market expectations of 19.98 billion yuan.
IP landscape is undergoing drastic restructuring. THE MONSTERS series featuring LABUBU generated 4.45 billion yuan, still first; new IP "Star People" revenue surged 580.6% year-on-year to 2.65 billion yuan, becoming the second largest IP. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine with revenue of 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2%. The board announced a first buyback plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan. LABUBU slows down, Star People takes over—the lifecycle management of IP is undergoing its toughest test.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: after Bitcoin’s $3.3 billion short squeeze, whether it can attract real spot buying is key; OKB contract market short dominance ratio crashed from an extreme 1083x to 7.8x then rebounded to 44.9x with cumulative liquidations exceeding $100,000, shorts re-exploded with stronger posture after intense shakeout establishing absolute dominance; Anthropic’s $2 trillion valuation challenges the largest IPO in history, redefining the limits of the AI bubble; Pop Mart’s LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, IP transition continues. Capital is seeking direction simultaneously in three tracks—when the short squeeze fades, IPO volume peaks, and IP shifts gears, who will be the true successor? #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $BTC This live chart completely exposed my trading habits. I set three take-profit levels: 75,500, 75,730, and 76,180, but I didn't set stop-loss at any of them. The only price that can close this trade is the estimated strong moving average near 73,759. In other words, I seriously planned where I should make money, but never really planned it: if I misjudged, I was willing to give up where I was. I keep telling myself that short-term losses are highly volatile, and normal stop-losses are easily swept away by inserted needles; As long as the major trend is not broken, and the price has not touched the strong moving average, the floating loss is only temporary. But the more real reason might be: I can't accept forced liquidation, but rather can't accept proactive stop-losses. Taking the initiative to stop loss means I have to admit that this trade was wrong; Qiangping, on the other hand, seemed to have made decisions for me by the market. The former requires facing misjudgments, while the latter can blame failure on market trends, pin insertion, and luck. So, I'd rather take the risk of losing the entire position than suffer a small, controllable loss. This is not courage, but rather packaging "unwillingness to admit mistakes" as "ability to withstand fluctuations." This time, the market pulled back from 75,770, and my position repeatedly broke below several short-term support points, with deep losses at one point. Now the price has returned to around 75,188, almost breaking even. From this, it's easy to conclude: See, not setting stop-losses is the right move. As long as you hold on, the price will eventually come back. But this may be the most dangerous outcome of this trade. A mistaken handoverUSDT doesn’t win because it beats every stablecoin on every trade.
It wins because traders already have it sitting on the exchange.
That’s the bigger story with USD1.
Aster just listed a SpaceX perp alongside gold, oil, SanDisk, and SK Hynix — all priced and settled in USD1.
And honestly, SpaceX might not even be the most important part.
The real game is becoming the stablecoin traders keep ready.
Because you don’t want to buy a stablecoin before every trade.
#DailyOrbit Today's Bitcoin Key Analysis: BTC Breaks Through $75,000, How Much Higher Can It Go Next?
August 21 BTC Market Key Forecast
But it should be noted: the faster the rise, the greater the short-term correction risk.
This rally is not just a simple technical rebound.
Recently, the U.S. Treasury increased the scale of long-term bond repurchases, raising market expectations for improved liquidity. At the same time, the U.S. has released more positive signals on crypto regulation, all of which have jointly improved the risk asset environment.
Additionally, this rally has been accompanied by a large number of short liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has seen over $1 billion in liquidations, with shorts accounting for the vast majority.
This is significant. Currently, BTC's rise is driven by a combination of "fundamental improvement + capital push + short squeeze."
$75,000 is the most important level today.
What the market needs to focus on now is not whether BTC can continue to rise, but whether BTC can hold above $75,000.
If the price can form effective support above $75,000, the market will further convert $75,000 from a "resistance level" into a "support level."
In this case: the first target is $78,000, and if $78,000 is broken further,
the second target is $80,000–$82,000.
If market sentiment remains extremely strong, testing near $85,000 cannot be ruled out. Bitcoin just had a week that restored bulls' confidence: from the accumulation zone of $62K–$67K, BTC surged to $73,050, up about 15% in 7 days. But the important question is not how much Bitcoin has risen, but whether this inflow of funds is strong enough to turn the breakout into a sustainable uptrend? The current answer is still uncertain. The crypto market is caught between four opposing forces: the Fed, geopolitics, AI, and US crypto policy. Just one of these variables reversing could change the market structure t#BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
The truth behind this round of rally: it's not that the bulls are too strong, but that the shorts are too crowded.
On August 21, $BTC strongly broke through $75,000, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20% this week. In the past 48 hours, over 180,000 liquidations occurred across the network, with a total liquidation amount reaching $3.264 billion, and short liquidations accounting for more than 90%.
But amid the frenzy, a core question emerges: after the "fuel" of short liquidations is burned out, who will take over?
Fund takeover: there are signals, but not strong enough yet
On August 19, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $517 million, hitting a three-month high. On-chain data shows that in the past 60 days, whales have net increased their holdings by about 43,000 bitcoins, with long-term holders controlling 83% of the supply, the highest proportion since December 2023.
But concerns are also obvious. The open interest of perpetual contracts has not significantly rebounded, and new leveraged long funds have not entered on a large scale. As analyst Adam McCarthy said: "The fuel has been burned out; the next leg up must rely on active buying rather than a short squeeze."
My judgment: $75,800 is the real decisive point
Glassnode data shows that about $75,800 is the cost basis for a broader range of active investors, and breaking this level is stronger evidence of market improvement. Analyst Ali Charts believes that if $75,733 is broken, the next major supply concentration zone is between $83,307 and $84,569.
But the $80,000–$82,500 range will be the real tough battle, as this area will face significant selling pressure from positions being freed up.
What to watch next?
First, the sustainability of ETF fund inflows. Second, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting from August 27 to 29. Third, progress on the CLARITY Act.
In conclusion
The US Treasury’s move ignited the short squeeze rally, but it cannot decide how long the fire will burn. If $75,800 is effectively broken, it means this rally is not just "killing shorts" but that new funds are officially entering; if it is resisted and falls back, then this $3.2 billion short liquidation wave is just another short squeeze rebound destined to be given back.
The direction depends on how this key level behaves in the coming weeks. 218 million short positions with an unrealized loss of $877,000 — “Set 10 big targets first” continues to add positions at $74,700, betting on Bitcoin topping out
💥 1. Position Overview: $218 million short, BTC short average entry price $74,746
On August 21, on-chain analyst Ai Yi monitored that “Set 10 big targets first” added another 1,000 BTC, updating the total position to $218 million, currently with an unrealized loss of $877,000.
Specific position structure:
· BTC 5x short: 2,449.968 BTC, valued at $183 million, average entry price $74,746.1
· ETH 7x short: 15,000 ETH, valued at $35.21 million, average entry price $2,347.89
Based on the current BTC price around $72,000–73,000, the BTC short position has an unrealized loss of about $4.3–6.7 million. However, the news states a total unrealized loss of $877,000, implying that the BTC short losses are partially hedged by other positions or margin structures.
🔥 2. Review: From “tens of millions in unrealized profit” to “unrealized loss with added positions,” what has he experienced?
This whale’s shorting journey is a highly representative leveraged narrative:
Phase 1 (June–July): Repeated attempts to short BTC in the $64,000–66,000 range. On June 19, closed 3,173.6 BTC shorts, netting about $9.467 million profit in a single trade. Afterwards, shorting space was continuously squeezed, and after BTC rebounded to $62,000–64,000 in August, losses expanded.
Phase 2 (early August): On August 10, held 1,742 BTC shorts ($110 million), average entry price about $63,709, with an unrealized profit of $292,000. After three stop losses on August 14, added 330 BTC shorts, raising the average short price to $63,700.
Phase 3 (August 21): After BTC broke through $70,000, he added another 1,000 BTC shorts, pushing total position to 2,449 BTC, average entry price $74,746 — this is the fifth or sixth time adding positions in nearly half a year.
He previously publicly stated: “You can stay out, you can be wrong, but refuse any probability of being taken out by a single wave.” But as unrealized losses expand to $877,000, this statement is undergoing its toughest test.
📈 3. The opposing forces: Who says the bull market is back?
The whale chose to add positions at $74,700, betting Bitcoin tops at this level. But the opposing side is extremely strong:
1. Technical: Golden cross is about to form, BTC above 200-day moving average
BTC price has broken above $71,000, firmly above the 200-day moving average at $69,000. The 50-day moving average is about $63,976, 200-day about $69,005, with a golden cross approaching. Analyst Yi Lihua wrote: “BTC has officially ended the bear market trend, and is bullish for the next two weeks.”
2. Macro: US Treasury repo implemented, risk appetite improves
The US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repos, with 30-year Treasury yields falling from above 5.3%. Macro strategist Mark Connors even predicts that if repos expand to $10–30 billion monthly, BTC could surge to $180,000.
3. Institutional inflows continue
On August 19, Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $517 million, Ethereum ETFs $189 million, totaling over $700 million. BIT withdrew 894.72 BTC from Binance, valued at $61.93 million.
4. Coinbase CEO calls for $400,000
Brian Armstrong publicly predicted BTC could rise to $300,000–400,000 before 2030, stating the industry is “preparing to push the CLARITY Act over the finish line.”
📉 4. Key levels: The “life and death line” for shorts
BTC shorts: average entry price $74,746, 5x leverage. If BTC continues to rise to $75,500–76,000, unrealized losses could expand to $3–5 million. The liquidation price depends on margin rate — this position has had multiple margin additions, so the safety buffer is relatively thick, but continuous adding means the shorts’ confidence is stronger, and the risk is greater.
ETH shorts: average entry price $2,347, 7x leverage. If ETH breaks $2,400–2,450, ETH shorts will face greater liquidation pressure.
💎 5. Summary
“Set 10 big targets first” started shorting in June, from $64,000 all the way to $74,700. Five times adding positions, $218 million position, unrealized loss of $877,000 — this is his largest bet in his shorting career.
His shorting logic is not without reason: BTC’s rebound from $62,500 to $71,000 shows technical overbought signals; Glassnode on-chain data shows sellers are not exhausted, Coinbase premium remains negative; CZ stated at SALT conference that “the market is still in a bear phase.” But the market doesn’t care about “logic” — it only cares about whose money runs out first.
If BTC continues to rise to $75,000–76,000, he will face greater unrealized losses. If BTC starts to pull back, he will become the most accurate “contrarian indicator.” The answer is not in his position, but in the market’s direction.
$BTC This round of BTC rise seems like a price breakout
but is actually the result of three core forces pushing simultaneously
First, the U.S. Treasury plans to expand long-term government bond repurchases
The market interprets this as a marginal improvement in liquidity
The weakening of the U.S. dollar index benefits risk assets collectively
Second, on August 19, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $517 million
BlackRock's IBIT contributed $285 million in spot funds, clearly indicating capital inflow
Third, in the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated over $3.2 billion
A large number of short positions were continuously swept out, creating a typical short squeeze scenario. Surpassing SpaceX? Anthropic might create the largest IPO in history. How much does the capital market really believe in the future of AI?
Anthropic's current story is quite exaggerated:
Revenue is exploding, with annualized income already reaching the hundreds of billions of dollars level; but on the other hand, losses are also rapidly expanding.
In simple terms: AI is really starting to make money, but AI is also burning through cash.
Training models requires computing power, computing power requires data centers, and data centers require chips, electricity, and huge capital.
So if Anthropic really enters the public market with a mega IPO, in a sense, it’s not just a company going public, but the capital market continuing to vote for the entire AI industry chain.
The problem lies exactly here: Can AI’s revenue growth ultimately outpace the growth of computing power costs?
If yes, the valuations that seem exaggerated today might just be the starting point in the future.
If not, then all the current crazy capital investments might end up being an expensive bet on expectations.
So what I care about more is not whether Anthropic can surpass SpaceX to become the largest IPO in history.
But how much money the capital market is willing to bet on the future of AI.
This might be the most worth-watching IPO in 2026. #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX @OKX星球 $ANTHROPIC $SPCX In three days, BTC surged from $64,000 to over $75,000, with a weekly increase exceeding 20%. The intensity and speed of this rally are rare in the crypto market over the past two years. The key question is—can this really be considered the foundation of a bull market?
Three major drivers of the rise
First, a substantial policy shift occurred. On August 19, Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and others at the White House, publicly stating that the U.S. government has discussed accumulating a "significant amount" of Bitcoin. He also urged Congress to quickly pass the CLARITY Act, which the market interpreted as the White House shifting its stance on crypto from "regulatory suppression" to "policy support." For a crypto market long troubled by regulatory uncertainty, presidential-level endorsement itself is a strong confidence booster.
Second, the liquidity environment suddenly improved. On the same day, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced raising the repo operation cap for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion. This move directly lowered long-term Treasury yields—which had previously spiked to a multi-year high of 5.34% for the 30-year bond. The yield decline means the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin decreases, increasing the appeal of risk assets. A Standard Chartered strategist bluntly called this "Bitcoin's favorite policy mix."
Third, a short squeeze triggered a chain reaction. This is actually the most critical of the three points. Bitcoin had been oscillating around $60,000 for the past six months, with massive leveraged short positions accumulating in the derivatives market. When the price broke through a key liquidation-heavy zone, a large number of shorts were forcibly closed—on August 19 alone, about $1.1 to $1.4 billion in shorts were liquidated, with global liquidations exceeding $3 billion within 24 hours, and nearly 200,000 traders liquidated. Short covering requires buying Bitcoin, and passive buying pushed prices higher, triggering the next wave of liquidations—forming a classic short squeeze positive feedback loop.
New Fire Research Institute's assessment is precise: this is not a single news-driven stimulus but a concentrated price release caused by a crowded short structure meeting multiple catalysts—regulatory tailwinds, falling long-term rates, and cross-sector capital inflows.
Has the foundation for a bull market been laid?
The divide between optimists and cautious observers centers on this question.
Optimistic signals are indeed accumulating. ETFs have seen large net inflows for three consecutive days, reaching $517 million on August 19, a three-and-a-half-month high. More importantly, CryptoQuant's "apparent demand" indicator turned positive for the first time since February, ending six months of net selling pressure. Bitcoin's market dominance rose to 58.87%, indicating this rally is led by Bitcoin, with funds showing signs of concentrating in mainstream coins. Standard Chartered maintains a year-end target of $100,000, and some strategists even call for a longer-term target of $180,000.
But the cautious reasons are equally solid.
First, the core driver of this rally is leverage, not spot buying. After $3 billion in shorts were liquidated, the power of passive buying is rapidly fading. Whether prices can hold depends on whether spot buying and ETF funds can take over the baton. MEXC Research's chief analyst bluntly said the Treasury's move is more like "opening a pressure valve" rather than a fundamental shift in the financial environment; BTC reclaiming $70,000 "still seems premature."
Second, there is no consensus within institutions. Standard Chartered is bullish, but CZ and VanEck believe the market has not bottomed, and Glassnode emphasizes the current rebound is only a local bounce. Glassnode's logic is solid: short-term holder cost is about $68,500, below the market average, with most holders still at unrealized losses; the 90-day realized profit-loss ratio is only 0.75, far from the threshold confirming a trend reversal.
Third, the policy tailwind has a time window. The Treasury's repo plan is explicitly set from September 9 to November 4, so the liquidity boost has an expiration date. Some analysts warn that if there is no substantial progress on the CLARITY Act before September 15, a short-term pullback risk may arise.
Three variables to watch next
First, whether ETF net inflows can continue. A single-day $500 million inflow looks good, but if subsequent volumes shrink or turn negative, it means institutional funds have not truly entered to support the market.
Second, whether BTC can hold above $75,000 and effectively break past its all-time high. If it just spikes and quickly falls back, that’s a typical false breakout with bulls forced to catch the falling knife.
Third, the progress of policy implementation in September. The actual execution of repo operations and the review progress of the CLARITY Act are key variables determining whether this rally can upgrade from a rebound to a sustained trend.
A $10,000 rise in three days is indeed fierce, with market sentiment jumping from fear to greed, and the intensity of the short squeeze setting records. But this feels more like a bull market rehearsal—the signals have appeared, but the foundation is not yet fully solidified. In the coming weeks, whether spot buying can hold, policies can be implemented, and overbought conditions can be digested through pullbacks will be the core variables truly deciding if the bull market returns. After a sharp rise, a pullback is inevitable; waiting for the pullback to stabilize before going long is much safer than chasing the high.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ BTC touching above 75000 has already exceeded expectations
The weekly candle closed with the strongest bullish candle in nearly a year
So it needs to be taken seriously
Currently, there are only two possibilities
Either a new round of trend uptrend has started
Or it’s a pump to sweep all short stop losses before turning down
There was no significant negative funding rate before this rise
Lacking signals of concentrated short accumulation
The volume shrank and the rise was driven entirely by short covering
With the closing fuel exhausted and no incremental funds to take over
Operationally, it’s still best not to chase the high
If you want to go long, wait for a pullback to 72200 before entering long positions
Currently, it’s a main wave one-sided market
Even if bearish, don’t heavily short with forceBTC is accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
My view: They can, but the short-term has already shifted from "fund-driven rise" to a stage that "requires continuous fund validation."
In the past two days, BTC quickly surged from around $63,000, once breaking through $72,000, with a very rapid increase. Meanwhile, the US stock spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $517 million, the largest single-day inflow since May, indicating this is not purely a sentiment-driven market. 
But here is a core issue to note:
ETF funds returning does not mean high-level funds will indefinitely keep taking over.
There are three important signals now:
First, shorts have been largely cleared.
During this rally, there were short liquidations exceeding tens of billions of dollars, and the short squeeze itself provided BTC with very strong acceleration. 
So the first half of the rise was mainly:
Short covering → Passive buying → Breaking resistance → More short stop-losses.
This phase is very prone to fast gains.
But the question is:
After most shorts are cleared, who will continue to buy?
This depends on spot funds.
⸻
Second, ETF funds are starting to take the "baton."
This is the most noteworthy change currently.
BTC ETFs have already shown continuous fund recovery, recently reaching about $517 million in a single day. 
This means the market is trying to shift from:
"Short squeeze market"
to:
"Spot fund relay market."
If ETFs continue to maintain net inflows, then after BTC breaks through 72,000, continuing to challenge 75,000—78,000 is reasonable.
⸻
Third, rising too fast is itself a risk.
BTC’s gains over the past few trading days have been very large, clearly entering a short-term ultra-strong state.
The biggest taboo now is:
ETF inflows not continuing to expand, but prices keep crazily rising.
That indicates marginal buying is starting to be insufficient.
Especially after breaking 72,000, if there is:
Price hitting new highs, but volume declining, ETF inflows dropping, and funding rates heating up rapidly
Be cautious of crowding among bulls.
⸻
Therefore, I now pay more attention to "pullbacks."
If BTC next shows:
72,000 → Pullback to 70,000—72,000 → No break → ETF continues inflow → Volume expands again
This is the healthiest trend.
Because this means:
72,000 turns from resistance into support.
In this case, the outlook for:
75,000 → 78,000 → 80,000
will be more confident.
But if it is:
72,000 breaks → Continues to surge rapidly → ETF funds can’t keep up → Quickly falls back below 70,000
Then beware that this rally might revert to profit-taking after the short squeeze.
⸻
My judgment on this rally:
Currently, I still lean toward the uptrend not being over.
But the pace of the rise may start to change:
First half: Short squeeze driven.
Now: Needs spot funds to take over.
Second half: Whether it becomes a trending market depends on whether ETFs can sustain inflows.
So the most important thing going forward is not guessing if BTC can reach 80,000, but watching three indicators:
Whether ETF net inflows continue
Whether 72,000 can turn into support
Whether volume expands synchronously during the rise
If all three conditions are met, this rally still has room.
If only price rises but funds don’t follow, the higher it goes, the greater the risk.
In short: Shorts can push BTC up to 72,000, but only sustained spot funds can push BTC to 80,000. The real test is just beginning. $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC For the first trade, I completed my position near 74,500, then closed the position in two batches, achieving profits of 84.57U and 24.84U, totaling 109.41U. From the outcome, it was a good deal. But looking back now, the seeds of the second scam were actually planted during the first profit. The most dangerous moment in trading isn't necessarily a series of losses; it might actually be right after you make money. Losses make people cautious, but profits can easily create the illusion that the market doesn't exactly match your strategy, but that you already understand the market. On my first trade, I was willing to wait for the price, for the structure, for the market to give an answer; After my first profit, I started to fear being short in positions, afraid of missing the next rally, and even subconsciously believed that the money I just made could be earned again. So, the second trade was no longer about entering after market opportunities appeared, but rather about wanting to enter and then looking for reasons in the market. The 4-hour trend is upward, the 1-hour structure remains intact, and the 15-minute low is still rising—these judgments are not wrong, but I use the excuse of "bullish on major levels" to justify "early entry in minor levels." A bullish trend does not mean you can buy at every position; The right direction can't make up for the wrong entrance rhythm. The first was waiting for the market, the second was asking for the market. Even more ironically, I had no patience before entering, but after the losses, I suddenly became "patient." When it's time to wait for confirmation, I'm afraid of missing out; When it's time to face mistakes, I tell myself again$BTC/Nasdaq ratio rebounds to the critical resistance level of 3.0. The core contradiction lies in whether crypto assets passively follow the volatility of US tech stocks or regain the ability to independently attract cross-market capital.
After a 64% retracement from the 2025 high, the ratio has rebounded about 15%, reaching the 3.0 level, indicating that the relative strength of $BTC against the Nasdaq has entered a key inflection point. Below 3.0 means liquidity premium is controlled by tech stocks, and structural capital reallocation to crypto has not yet formed.
In terms of driving factors priority, changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and US Treasury yield trends rank first, followed by the transmission of liquidity risk from high-level US stock corrections, and lastly the degree of leverage clearing within the crypto market. If the US dollar index strengthens during the Nasdaq's high-level consolidation, cross-market liquidity will prioritize contraction into traditional risk-free assets.
The bullish scenario requires the $BTC/Nasdaq ratio to break out with volume and hold above 3.0. If this is accompanied by a weakening US dollar index and rotation of US stock capital into high-beta assets, $BTC will confirm its detachment from the US stock dependency, opening an independent upward attack channel; if the ratio falls back below 2.85, the bullish thesis is invalidated.
The bearish scenario is set as the ratio being capped by the 3.0 resistance and experiencing a secondary decline. If the Nasdaq corrects due to sustained high interest rates or disappointing earnings, and $BTC follows down with a larger drop, the ratio will probe downward again, confirming that crypto assets have not yet regained market pricing dominance.
The invalidation condition for this cross-market rotation is when gold and US Treasuries rise during a US stock correction while $BTC simultaneously falls. This means both safe-haven and risk capital are squeezed out of the crypto market, causing the rebound to stall at the 3.0 threshold.
In the next 7 days, close attention should be paid to the volatility changes of the Nasdaq index at critical levels, and whether $BTC can maintain relative strength and surpass the 3.0 resistance during US stock consolidation.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议$BTC broke through 72,000, this wave is really different
As soon as the market opened, BTC had already reached 72,000, rising nearly 12% in 24 hours, reaching a high near 73880. A few days ago, I was still talking about whether 70,000 could stand firm, but now I'm directly heading towards 74,000. The speed is indeed a bit fast.
The pace of this rise is obviously different from the previous one. The previous few pulls were all based on news, and they fell back after two days. This time, the Ministry of Finance doubled the scale of long-term government bond repurchases, from 2 billion to at least 4 billion per transaction. With the decline in US bond yields, the weakening of the US dollar, and the collective relaxation of risk assets. Following that, the Trump White House Crypto Council made another move, saying that the United States is discussing "massive hoarding of coins," and BTC has directly increased from 69,000 to over 72,000.
This wave is really bad. 24 Nearly $3 billion was liquidated in the hour, with short positions accounting for more than $2.6 billion. More importantly, ETFs have seen a large net inflow for two consecutive days. On August 20th alone, they received $517 million, which is completely different from the previous market where contract funds were pushed hard. Some people say that it is the bearish squeeze that pushes prices up, but the real money of ETFs is the foundation for this wave to stand.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC