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When all three screens turned green at the same time, I paused.
On the left, $BTC at 75,000. In the middle, $ETH at 2,350. On the right, gold at 4,500.
In the past 24 hours, BTC rose 8%, ETH rose 12%, and gold rose 4%. The last time I saw them all move up so neatly was in October last year.
Gold moved first.
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.32%, prompting the Treasury to act by announcing a doubling of the long-term bond repurchase program. The dollar fell to a two-and-a-half-month low, long-term rates retreated, real rates were pushed down, and gold was driven from 4,300 to above 4,500. Some are buying, some are taking over.
BTC and ETH followed, but with different rhythms.
On August 19, Trump met with the CEOs of Coinbase and Gemini at the White House, publicly pressuring the Senate to pass the market structure bill. On the same day, the SEC introduced a new regulatory framework for token financing — the first compliance channel established for projects.
With these two messages combined, BTC surged 7% in a single day. Last night, after the Treasury’s repurchase announcement, it pushed again, breaking through 75,000.
ETH rose 5 percentage points more than BTC today — shorts were heavily crowded, and when the price turned, a chain liquidation directly pushed it up. Like a spring compressed too long, it bounces fastest when released.
Two forces are pushing simultaneously. On the macro side, the Treasury stabilizes the bond market, the dollar weakens, and liquidity expectations improve. Structurally, Trump and the SEC signal a policy shift, shorts are cleared out, and ETF funds are flowing back. On August 19, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of over $700 million.
But there is a fundamental difference between gold and crypto.
Gold’s rise is driven step-by-step by buying pressure. A significant part of BTC and ETH’s gains comes from short liquidations — some are buying, some are running.
Different motivations mean different resilience going forward.
Next, watch two things: whether the dollar index can continue to weaken — if the dollar rebounds, all three will come under pressure; and whether ETF inflows can sustain — if the $700 million-plus was just a pulse, then 75,000, 2,350, and 4,500 are short-term highs; if the inflows maintain this scale over the next week, then real money is entering.
All three screens turned green simultaneously. Whether money is truly coming in will be answered in the next week. Fundraising scale may match SpaceX: Anthropic rushes IPO, the underlying logic of AI company valuation has changed
The global artificial intelligence sector is about to welcome the most significant barometer.
As early as the end of August, the large model super unicorn Anthropic will officially disclose its IPO prospectus. According to multiple investment banks, the scale of this public fundraising is very likely to match or even surpass the commercial aerospace giant SpaceX, becoming one of the largest super IPOs in the global tech capital market in recent years.
When an AI leader valued at tens of billions of dollars, owning the top-tier Claude series models, truly steps onto the public trading stage, the valuation coordinate system for the entire AI sector in the secondary market is undergoing a disruptive reconstruction.
In the past two years, the sky-high valuations given to large model companies in the primary market were largely based on "breakthroughs in parameter scale" and "imaginative technological vision."
As long as you can train the next-generation model with leading benchmark scores, capital will continuously pay for you.
But once the IPO door opens, Wall Street and secondary market institutional investors will scrutinize every data metric with an extremely cold financial microscope.
At this new stage, the core focus of assessment quickly shifts from pure model benchmark scores to "the quality of annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth" and "whether inference compute costs can be effectively amortized."
Anthropic's revenue growth curve is certainly very impressive, and enterprise clients' stickiness to the Claude model in programming, complex reasoning, and automated workflows is evident.
But on the flip side, there is the depreciation of the tens of thousands of GPU compute clusters required to train the next-generation cutting-edge large models, as well as the expensive GPU inference costs behind every API call.
If an AI company can only double its revenue but its marginal gross margin is tightly suppressed by high cloud compute rental fees, its business model easily becomes "a toll collector working for Nvidia and cloud computing giants."
This is also why Anthropic must rush for a super IPO at this time.
The large model arms race has entered a deep water zone of tens of billions of dollars in consumption. Completing a public listing during the liquidity window not only provides sufficient resources for subsequent larger-scale compute clusters but also establishes its benchmark position in pure-blood AI assets.
For secondary market investors, this also raises a very practical asset allocation question:
As AI unicorns successively enter the capital market, do you prefer to bet on mature tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, which have strong cash flow and distribution networks and also invest in AI companies, or are you willing to pay for pure AI assets like Anthropic, which are high-growth, highly elastic but face huge short-term losses?
Between high revenue growth and short-term heavy losses, what is the core metric you use to measure the long-term value of an AI startup?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #ETH surges strongly, short positions liquidated over $1.1 billion
The leader has something to say
Ethereum hit a high of 2335 today, rising much more aggressively than Bitcoin.
On-chain, short positions worth $1.1 billion were liquidated in 24 hours. The largest single liquidation was $108 million, from an address related to a pension fund. BlackRock's Ethereum ETF added $122 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of net inflows.
Short squeeze combined with ETF buying pressure, both forces pushing simultaneously.
But there is a question here. This sharp rise in ETH — is it mainly driven by short covering, or is it genuine spot capital entering? We need to see if subsequent buying can keep up. If it’s just shorts being forced to cover pushing the price up, the pullback could be severe. ETH’s derivatives leverage structure is more fragile than Bitcoin’s, making short squeezes more elastic but also leading to similar retracements.
In terms of strategy, the plan to buy Bitcoin around 65000 to 66000 remains unchanged; for Ethereum, consider buying in the 2000 to 2050 range. Do not chase the rally; wait for a pullback. Continue holding SPCX as a core position. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.BTC Breaks $76K, ETH Nears $2.4K — What’s Driving the Rally?
$BTC has pushed above $76K while $ETH approaches $2.4K, signaling renewed risk appetite. The move is supported by stronger institutional demand, ETF flows, and short-covering after weeks of tight trading.Lower Treasury yields following increased long-term bond buybacks are easing pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile expectations for clearer U.S. crypto regulation are strengthening confidence and could support institutional participationBTC 两天从 6.4 万附近一路冲到 7.7万，光过去24小时就有大约12亿美元空头被强平，算上前一天，两天清算的空头已经超过40亿美元。 但如果只把这轮上涨归结成“逼空”，我觉得还是看窄了。 昨天美国现货BTC ETF净流入6.06亿美元，ETH ETF也有2.21亿美元，而且已经连续第二天明显放量。也就是说，价格往上冲的同时，场外真金白银也在进来。 这才是我比较在意的地方。 另外，美国CFTC主席已经放话：如果《Clarity Act》继续卡在国会，CFTC会直接利用现有权限推进加密市场监管规则，甚至已经让工作人员开始准备相关方案。换句话说，美国这边的监管方向并没有停下来等法案。 现在BTC的问题反而不是“牛不牛”，而是涨得太快了。 64000→77000，几天涨了接近20%，空头清算、ETF资金、监管预期全挤在一起，短线很容易继续疯，也很容易突然砸一根。 我现在更想看的是，下周ETF还能不能继续保持这种流入速度。 如果还能持续，这波就不是单纯的逼空行情了。 你们觉得BTC这次能不能直接摸回前高？Bitcoin (BTC) Recent Trend Analysis (As of 2026-08-21)
Three Major Drivers of This Rally
1. Favorable US Macro Liquidity
The US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, leading to a decline in US bond yields and a weaker dollar. This improved the overall environment for risk assets, resulting in a return of spot ETF funds and increased institutional buying.
2. Improved Regulatory Expectations
Senior US officials met with executives from the crypto industry, raising market expectations for the introduction of more crypto-friendly regulatory legislation. Sentiment has significantly recovered. The Senate vote on the related bill on September 15 is a key upcoming event.
3. Short Squeeze Amplifying Gains
The market had previously accumulated a large amount of short leverage. After the price broke upward, many short positions were forcibly liquidated. The buybacks from these liquidations further pushed prices higher, amplifying the short-term rally. Over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within one hour.
Technical Analysis (Public Market)
- Short-term Resistance
First resistance at $73,700–$74,000; strong resistance at $76,000–$78,000, the previous trapped zone.
- Key Support
Short-term defense at $72,000; if broken, a retest of $69,000–$70,000 is expected; mid-term strong support at $66,000–$68,000, which is the starting range of this rebound.
The short-term hourly RSI indicator is relatively high, showing signs of overbought conditions. After a rapid surge, a sharp correction may occur at any time. After the short squeeze ends, a severe pullback is likely. Bitcoin’s latest move above $70K looks explosive but the story is bigger than crypto alone. The rally came as several factors aligned: the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double longer-dated Treasury buybacks to $4B per operation helping push long-term yields lower initially. At the same time a crowded short position was forced to unwind accelerating $BTC move higher. ◆ Liquidity Became the First Catalyst The Treasury intervention matters because long term yields had climbed to l$PEOPLE Previously, those VC coins surged 8-10 times at high market caps, such as APT and SUI, mainly driven by investors with tens of millions and mid-level investors with millions; retail investors had little involvement. Now, the big and mid-level investors who used to play VC coins have either exited the scene or changed their interests, focusing only on Bitcoin, investing solely in Bitcoin, and no longer touching VC coins. On the contrary, ORDI inscription coins have been driven up by retail investor consensus.The rise in the crypto circle is really different from stocks; even groups that haven't been active for a long time have become lively. Of course, in reality, it still doesn't matter much to most people, haha. It's just that when things get better, it feels like you can make money. However, those who dare to chase indeed made profits. I didn't dare to chase yesterday; later I saw BNB had the smallest increase, so I took a small bite and sold it this morning after waking up. After 15 days of dollar-cost averaging, I made over ten percent, which is ridiculous—I really want to sell. It's quite uncomfortable when it dips and then rises.
US tech stocks generally fell, but storage stocks recovered again, with MU rising nearly 4% intraday. AI/storage cores still face tight supply and demand and high valuations, which will amplify volatility for both. However, I still like buying Korean stock Hynix. I couldn't resist yesterday and continued running a grid between 800 and 1500, hoping to hold on this time. Every time I make a little bit of pocket change, I really want to quit. Currently, I'm up 1%. The grid only profits from volatility; unless it really drops to 800, high volatility is still quite good. The situation in Iran and oil supply remain macro variables. If energy prices continue to rise, it will push up inflation expectations and US Treasury yields, which is less friendly to high-valuation tech and storage stocks. While US tech stocks are falling, the crypto circle is surging—is this time different? As of waking up today, hot money has already spread from BTC and ETH to high Beta, but the faster the spread, the easier it is to turn into a relay race later. That's how the crypto circle is; frankly, many people can't keep up and will soon look for tokens that can catch up. Those who had this mindset in the first wave are indeed smart people.
$BTC $PEOPLE rose by 43% in 24 hours, but intraday it is already down 96% from the peak — pullbacks are nearby. Yesterday's spike is visible across all timeframes, but the gain over 12 hours is only 5%, and over 4 hours — 8%. Shorter timeframes show a slowdown after the impulse. How to explain this difference: the impulse is gone, but the market structure is not yet broken?After the BTC short squeeze, it settled at $71,300, and now the market is waiting for the next variable. If the breakthrough of $70,000 is already reflected in the price, what variables have not yet been factored in? Bitcoin rose to $71,300, absorbing the liquidation volume around the $70,039 range. During this process, a short squeeze occurred, strengthening the upward momentum. At the same time, Ethereum moved around $2,275, showing relative strength in the ETH/BTC ratio. This can be interpreted as an early signal of an altcoin rotation phase, but it is not yet confirmed. The key point of this movement is not just a simple price breakout but the restructuring of derivative positions. The $70,039 level was a concentrated liquidation zone of recently accumulated leveraged short positions, and breaking through it triggered a chain of forced liquidations. As a result, the liquidation of short positions turned into buying pressure, amplifying the upward momentum. If the funding rate and basis have not deviated from the normal range, this rise can still be seen as closer to a position reset rather than overheating. SiBitcoin has reached 74,000. The shorts are dead, but the bull market is not yet alive.
This is not a pretentious cryptic phrase, but the most authentic snapshot of the market at this moment. A 14% surge in two days, $3 billion worth of short positions vaporized, the sound of liquidations cracking crisply like ice breaking. A short squeeze, textbook-level short squeeze. But if you think this is the bull market's charge, ask again: #BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch The trading volume in the crypto market has exploded these past two days!!!
In the last two days, the entire market's trading volume has surged explosively, with the increase in derivatives trading volume far exceeding that of spot trading. Behind the surge in trading volume are three converging factors: short squeeze, sentiment recovery, and collective capital turnover.
First, large-scale forced liquidation of short positions has brought massive turnover. For two consecutive days, over $3 billion worth of short positions have been liquidated, with more than 90% being short position clearances. Passive short position buybacks have generated a large amount of instantaneous transactions, which is the most direct driver of the volume surge. After BTC quickly broke through key resistance, prices continuously triggered new long positions at high levels and stop-losses on short positions, instantly heating up the contract market trading activity.
Second, market sentiment has rapidly warmed up, and previously sidelined funds have re-entered. After a long period of sideways consolidation, a large amount of capital was on the sidelines. When BTC continuously hit new stage highs, the greed index quickly rose, prompting retail investors and short-term speculators to re-engage in trading. Hotspots rotated faster, with MEME and sector coins alternately moving, further amplifying the overall trading volume.
However, it is important to distinguish the core issue: the current volume increase mainly comes from leveraged contract trading, and the spot trading volume growth has not kept pace with contracts. BTC spot ETFs have only seen intermittent large inflows, with no continuous steady capital inflow yet. The volume surge only proves that the current competition is intense and cannot be directly equated with a large-scale inflow of incremental spot funds.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ANTHROPIC plans to enter the public market with a valuation close to two trillion dollars. The current core conflict lies in the tug-of-war between high-growth revenue expectations and a $40 billion net loss affecting market risk appetite.
Quarterly revenue has surpassed $10 billion with operating profit turning positive for the first time, pushing annualized revenue beyond the $60 billion threshold. This fundamental improvement has led to a concentration of tech growth stock positions under macro liquidity constraints toward leading names.
The priority order of market driving factors has changed. Whether operating cash flow can offset computing power expenses has become the most critical variable, while revenue growth’s sole support for valuation premiums has moved to a secondary position.
In the upside scenario, if Q3 operating profit exceeds $1 billion, strong cash flow improvement will directly alleviate concerns over heavy asset expenditures. Once this condition is met, secondary market risk appetite can be maintained, supporting the continuation of a high valuation system with a 30x price-to-sales ratio.
In the downside scenario, if the $40 billion net loss for the full year continues to expand, high computing power costs will quickly erode liquidity premiums. Defensive de-risking funds will suppress risk appetite, triggering defensive sell-offs against overextended valuations.
A signal of judgment failure lies in the deviation between profit retention rate and expense growth in the prospectus. If a slowdown in computing power expense growth leads to a significant narrowing of losses, even if revenue falls short of expectations, the downside de-risking logic will fail; if profit retention rate continues to deteriorate, the upside valuation logic will immediately collapse.
The key variables to watch in the next 7 days are the confirmation standards in the public prospectus regarding subsequent computing power expense growth and profit retention rate.
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在【Has the policy bottom arrived, and is the bull market bottom far behind?】
Brothers, today's market situation explains more than the candlestick chart.
BTC broke through 72,000, rising from 63,000 over the past week, an increase of over 14%. More than $3 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with shorts completely wiped out.
The core driving force behind this rally is not technical or capital factors—it is policy.
**First, the most important signal: the White House has personally stepped in.**
On August 19 local time, Trump met with key executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, and others in the crypto industry at the White House Roosevelt Room, along with SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig.
Trump made three statements worthy of being recorded in industry history:
First, the government has discussed accumulating a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin and other crypto assets, noting that crypto "greatly alleviates the pressure on the dollar."
Second, he urged Congress to pass a "fair version" of the Clarity Act by September 15, saying this would allow the U.S. to lead China and other countries.
Third, the SEC is advancing rules to exempt certain digital assets from securities registration requirements, enabling crypto startups to raise funds legally in the U.S.
**This is the first time a sitting U.S. president has publicly supported Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset.**
**But things are far from settled.**
The biggest obstacle to the Clarity Act is controversy over ethics clauses. The Trump family has profited over $1.4 billion from crypto projects, and Democrats are demanding stricter conflict-of-interest restrictions. White House crypto advisor Witt, while expressing "genuine optimism and bullishness," also acknowledged that disputes over stablecoin yields and other issues need resolution.
After the Senate reconvenes on September 15, a procedural vote requiring 60 votes to advance will take place, needing support from at least 10 Democratic senators. The legislative window is narrowing, and after the November midterm elections, the new Congress will need to push it again. If the vote fails, the chance of passage this year will be extremely slim.
**More worrisome is the position structure.** U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors’ average holding cost is about $82,465, far above the current price. The past week's rise was driven more by forced short covering than by large-scale new capital inflows. The open interest in perpetual contracts has not significantly rebounded. The short squeeze momentum is fading; whether Bitcoin can continue to rise will increasingly depend on spot buying and ETF capital inflows taking over.
**The Federal Reserve is also sending mixed signals.**
The July FOMC minutes showed three members voted against a rate hike, while "many" participants said a hike would be necessary if inflation does not fall. Remember the names Harker, Kashkari, and Logan—they are the Fed’s most hawkish insiders.
However, macro analysis from Huachuang Securities points out that although monetary policy rules suggest the Fed "should" raise rates by about 60-220 basis points, the development of the AI industry, economic K-shaped divergence, and supply shocks limit both rate hikes and cuts. Acting rashly risks being reactive; the tendency is to keep rates unchanged this year. The market’s pricing for a September hike is now only about 35%.
**The most certain macro variable is the U.S. Treasury’s bond repurchase plan.** Treasury Secretary Yellen announced an expansion of bond repurchases, with monthly repurchase amounts expected to increase from $4 billion to a range of $10-30 billion. Based on this, Risk Dimensions’ CIO raised BTC’s long-term target to $180,000-$360,000 but emphasized that the short-term key is the Clarity Act.
**The market is at a crossroads—what’s next?**
The core logic of this rally is the confirmation of a "policy bottom"—the White House, SEC, and CFTC all turning positive simultaneously. This is a structural shift that cannot be simply explained as a "sentiment rebound." But a policy bottom does not equal a price bottom.
**Short-term direction:** $72,000 is a key technical level with many shorts concentrated here. If it holds, short covering will continue to push prices higher. But the short squeeze momentum is fading; subsequent moves depend on whether spot funds can take over.
**Entry points:** Do not chase highs near $72,000. If the price pulls back to $68,000-$69,000 and shows signs of stabilization, it is a worthy long entry zone with a stop loss below $66,000 and targets of $76,000-$77,000. If it breaks above $75,000 with sustained volume, wait for a pullback confirmation before adding positions.
**Mid-term key variable:** The Clarity Act vote on September 15. If passed, $68,000-$70,000 will become new bottom support; if it fails, a pullback to $63,000-$65,000 is highly likely.
**Core judgment for August:** The policy bottom has appeared, but the true bull market start requires sustained spot capital inflows and the finalization of the regulatory framework.
Comment below: **Do you think BTC at $72,000 is the end of the short squeeze or the start of the bull market?**
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*Personal opinion, not investment advice. The market has risks; be responsible for yourself.* Can $BTC BTC break through the 80,000 mark tonight? Amid the frenzy, it's important to see reality clearly🚨
In just a few trading days, BTC has surged from 64,000 to above 75,000, igniting sentiment across the entire network. On Polymarket, the probability of reaching 80,000 within the year has risen to 57%. Many are asking: tonight, can BTC directly break through the psychological barrier of 80,000?
Three major driving forces pushing towards 80,000:
1. Macro liquidity shift. The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and overall risk asset valuations opened up, laying the foundational soil for this rally.
2. U.S. crypto policy expectations fermenting. The White House crypto summit, expectations for the CLARITY Act, new SEC regulatory proposals, and the market's forward-looking imagination of compliant institutional funds entering the market. Spot ETF funds continue to flow back, and institutions like Morgan Stanley keep increasing BTC positions.
3. Epic short squeeze amplifying the rally. A large accumulation of shorts previously, after breaking key resistance, triggered a chain of liquidations. Tens of billions in short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, and passive buying from shorts continuously pushed prices higher, accelerating the upward momentum.
Realistic resistance blocking a direct hit to 80,000 tonight:
1. Short-term indicators are deeply overbought. After rapid consecutive rallies, 4-hour and daily indicators have entered overbought zones. The market's fear and greed index is in the greed zone, accumulating massive short-term profit-taking positions with strong motivation to cash out anytime.
Key point: A large part of this rally comes from short covering. Currently, most shorts have been cleared, and the short squeeze dividend is fading. Further gains must rely on new spot capital to take over; relying solely on closing positions is unlikely to continue violent rallies.
2. 80,000 is a strong psychological and technical resistance level. The closer to the round number, the heavier the selling pressure, with many previously trapped positions and short-term profit-taking concentrated. To break through in one go requires sustained volume; a low-volume breakout attempt is likely to result in a spike and pullback.
3. Most positive factors are still in the "expectation stage." The CLARITY Act is still being debated in Congress and has not been enacted; Middle East geopolitics and oil price rebounds can disturb U.S. Treasury yields at any time. If the macro environment reverses, the market can quickly turn.
Key reference ranges:
- Strong resistance: 77,000–78,000, followed by the 80,000 round number. Only with sustained volume breakthroughs is there a chance to touch 80,000; low-volume rallies are likely to spike and fall.
- First support: 73,500–74,000, converted support after this breakout. Holding here keeps the bullish structure intact.
- Critical watershed: 71,000. A decisive break below indicates this short-term bullish phase is over, and a deep correction should be watched for.
Objective conclusion:
There is a possibility of hitting 80,000 tonight, but directly and steadily standing above 80,000 is very difficult.
Short squeeze rallies tend to spike and touch the level, but to hold effectively requires continuous spot capital support.
More likely: intense high-level volatility, repeated shakeouts, and after some game theory, a challenge to 80,000 rather than a one-shot breakthrough.
Bull markets are not short of opportunities; don't get swept up in market frenzy chasing highs. Even with an overall upward trend, a 20% correction mid-way is normal in a bull market. Walmart’s quarter sends a more cautious signal than the headline beat suggests. FY2027 Q2 revenue of about $187.9B and adjusted EPS of $0.81 exceeded forecasts, yet US comparable sales growth of 2.6% trailed the 3.7%–3.8% consensus, while Q3 EPS guidance disappointed and shares fell about 9%.
The key tension is between demand and margin resilience. Using nearly $3B in tariff refunds mainly for price cuts and customer-experience improvements may support traffic, but it also underscores consumer price sensitivity. Higher full-year sales guidance is constructive; slower US sales and heavier discounting make execution quality the more important metric from here. Not advice, just analysis.
#WalmartBeatCompMissBTC just surpassed the 72,000 USD mark, and the biggest question right now is: can this rally continue or is it just a short-term bounce? Looking at the essence, the main driver boils down to one core factor – the market is betting again on the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. Recent US economic data has been cooling down continuously, making expectations for a rate cut in September increasingly clear. Lower interest rates mean reduced capital costs, easing pressure on the USD, and capital flows are starting to move ahead of expectations for a rate cut Why do I feel that $BTC and $ETH will rebound, but reaching new highs is difficult?
With the launch of ETFs and the Wall Street-ification of BTC and ETH, BTC and ETH have become denominator assets, with completely identical attributes.
ETH only amplifies BTC's volatility; it has little to do with RWA or on-chain activity. The core still depends on long-term U.S. Treasury yields, discount rates, and risk premiums.#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch If crypto assets are divided into core positions and opportunity positions, BTC is more suitable as a core position.
However, a core position does not mean fully invested. A more reasonable approach is to build it in 3 to 5 batches, keep cash on hand to cope with pullbacks, and avoid using high leverage. If $BTC pulls back and falls, this altcoin market will bleed heavily again.
In 2025, Bitcoin led the market rally, with many altcoins failing to keep up, and when Bitcoin turned bearish, altcoins experienced declines far greater than Bitcoin's.
Here is a set of data:
BTC reached a historical high of about $125,000 in early October 2025. However, during Bitcoin's rise, funds did not spread broadly to altcoins as in previous bull markets.
In Q1 2025, BTC market dominance rose to 59.1%
In Q2 2025, BTC market dominance rose to 62.1%
Throughout the first half of the year, market funds continued to favor BTC over altcoins. BTC hit new highs while altcoins not only failed to break new highs but also did not recover their prices from the beginning of the year.
In Q4 2025, BTC retraced 23.2% from its high, with a price around $87,520
For the whole year:
$BTC fell 6.4%
$ETH fell 11.1%
$SOL fell 34.3%
$DOGE fell 62%
Countless other altcoins fell more than 50%.
At this stage, with BTC dominating the scene again, it inevitably reminds people of the situation in 2025 when the "Bitcoin bull market" was mistaken for a "cryptocurrency bull market." The Treasury expands long-term bond repurchases, which sounds like cooling down the bond market
But what the bond market fears most is not a lack of buyers, but that everyone doubts this measure is sufficient
After long-term bond yields surged, the U.S. Treasury increased repurchases, which can indeed provide short-term relief. But soon the market starts asking: Have the real root causes—government bond supply, deficits, inflation, AI company borrowing, oil price pressures—been resolved?
I think this matter is crucial for risk assets
If long-term rates only technically fall, the U.S. stock market, BTC, and gold will all breathe a sigh of relief; but if investors believe the Treasury is just using a small bucket to fight a big fire, term premiums may continue to rise. Once the bond market loses confidence, all valuation models need to be recalculated
The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is not an obscure indicator
It acts like the gravitational force of the financial market
When it rises, long-term narratives become heavier; when it falls, risk appetite gets some breathing room
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Ethereum only touched 4000 in March and December 2024 before ending the bull market.
In the July 2025 cycle, it started facing selling pressure at 3800 (the wolf-cry effect), and many were worried whether it could hold above 4000 for the third time, so a lot rushed in early.
After consolidating for a while with a fake breakdown, it then smoothly surged all the way up to 4900.
This time, 4000 probably won't be a big resistance; 4500-4700 might be a tough barrier.
Because in 2021 and 2025, it never fully broke through 4900, everyone will be watching that number closely, and many will try to jump in early.
In 2025, the strong narrative of bitmine hoarding Ethereum pushed it to 4900. This time, it's unclear if there's an even stronger narrative; otherwise, the pressure in this range will be significant.
If it breaks through 5000, it will definitely be a celebration for the E-Guardians, making history. But for altcoins, breaking an all-time high is itself a rare event, so we shouldn't have too high expectations; if it's time to exit, then exit.
Multiple bear markets have taught us that taking profits is more important than gambling on the peak.
After all, this space has huge bull and bear swings, and repeated cyclical waves yield very considerable overall returns.
Later, I realized that cash is the moat that keeps you ahead of others. The core highlight of this policy is no longer limited to the $4 billion repurchase quota per period. The key signal released by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is that there is room for further expansion of the repurchase scale.
The specific policy adjustment is: from September 9 to November 4, the Treasury will raise the single repurchase quota for 10- to 30-year U.S. Treasuries from $2 billion to a minimum of $4 billion. The direct purpose of this measure is to improve liquidity in the long-term Treasury market and hedge against the pressure of the 30-year Treasury yield soaring to 5.34%, a new high since 2007.
A more pointed signal is that the Treasury stated it could continue to expand repurchases based on market dynamics, reflecting a reduced tolerance by the U.S. side for the sustained rise in long-term interest rates.
In the short term, this policy is positive for risk assets: the Treasury's increased holdings of long-term bonds push bond prices up and yields down, marginally easing the overall financial environment. The transmission path is lower Treasury yields → weaker dollar, which in turn boosts gold and Bitcoin prices while alleviating valuation pressure on U.S. stocks.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
However, it is worth noting that although Treasury yields briefly fell after the initial announcement of balance sheet expansion, they subsequently rebounded again, reflecting the market's general judgment that simple repurchase operations cannot solve deep structural contradictions such as the high U.S. fiscal deficit, inflation resilience, and expanding debt scale. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Bitcoin at 74,000: The bears are dead, but the bull market is not yet born
BTC breaks through 74,000.
In one sentence to summarize the current market: the bears are dead, but the bull market has not yet come alive.
This is not pretentious market jargon, but the most authentic snapshot of the current market. A 14% surge in just two days, over three billion dollars in short positions across the network vaporized, the sound of intense liquidations crisp like ice suddenly cracking. This is a textbook example of an extreme short squeeze, with long-accumulated crowded short positions liquidated all at once, forcibly pushing the price higher step by step.
But while everyone is wildly chasing the rally and shouting that the bull market has restarted, we must calmly ask: who exactly is buying in this surge? And who is selling?
The logic behind this rally is clear and straightforward.
The U.S. Treasury has increased long-term bond repurchases, signaling a disguised QE easing, bringing marginal improvement to macro liquidity; the White House is actively promoting cryptocurrency compliance legislation, clearing obstacles and handing out entry tickets for institutional funds.
Macro easing plus policy tailwinds, a dual engine igniting this fiery surge.
Yet beneath the lively market surface, the divergence signals on-chain are glaring: the higher the price rises, the more calmly the whales are withdrawing funds.
During this rebound, large holding wallets have been steadily reducing and cashing out, quietly distributing high-level chips. Smart money is steadily exiting, while those taking the baton are retail investors forced to flip to long positions by the extreme short squeeze, and momentum-driven funds swept up by market sentiment.
Many mistakenly believe a violent surge signals the start of a bull market charge.
But a true bull market is always supported by only two things: the flame of sentiment and the fuel of capital.
Now the market’s feverish sentiment is fully ignited, but the real incremental fuel is seriously lacking.
The current driving force behind the rise almost entirely comes from passive buying due to contract liquidations; the derivatives frenzy overshadows real spot demand. Spot trading volume growth lags far behind contract enthusiasm, meaning this surge is just the stretched emotional leverage exerting force, not a solid foundation of incremental bull market.
74,000 has never been the market’s end point, but the ultimate test.
It tests not the accuracy of predicting ups and downs, but human nature and discipline:
Can you hold to your trading logic amid the unified bullish chants and everyone’s firm belief that "this time is different"?
Can you soberly ask, when the candles blaze and greed spreads: what comes after the rise?
The market never lacks opportunities, it always lacks sober holders with bullets left.
You can celebrate the profits from this rebound, but never become completely intoxicated in the bull frenzy.
The bears’ fall is only a corrective move, not the establishment of a bull market.
74,000: lively as it is, keep your clarity.
The market still has warmth, the trend is not yet formed; taking profits without greed, following the trend without blind obedience, is the best solution now.
#BTC #BitcoinMarket #MarketReview #TradingAwareness #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ [BTC Weekly Review and Projection: Is the Current Breakout a Bull Market Restart or Another Fake Breakout?]
Reviewing the cycle trend from the 2022 bear market to now, the bull-bear transition band has always been the core benchmark for determining major trend reversals:
Characteristics of a fake breakout (red circles/red arrows): Whether during the 2022 downtrend or the previous rebounds, although the price pierced the transition band, as long as it cannot effectively hold above it for more than 3 weeks, it is only a "bull trap fake breakout" in the bear market, followed by a larger pullback.
Confirmation of a true breakout (green circles/green arrows): A genuine bull-bear transition must meet the condition of strongly holding above the transition band for more than 3 consecutive weeks, and after a pullback test confirming no break below, this signals the start of a major bull market.
Current trend (blue circles/blue arrows): BTC strongly surged this week breaking through the transition band, but this is only the initial breakout stage. History does not simply repeat, but often rhymes similarly—I personally lean toward the probability that major funds will struggle to hold above the band for 3 weeks, making a fake breakout followed by another bottom test more likely.
Future trading strategy:
Bull defense: Avoid rushing to chase highs! At least wait for 3 consecutive weekly closes above the bull-bear band and a confirmed pullback before adding positions on the right side.
Short-term/swing: Treat the current position as a key resistance zone; if in the next two weeks there are long upper shadows or stagnation followed by a breakdown, consider reducing positions on rallies or strategically placing defensive short positions.
Be patient, let the bullets fly for a few more weeks!With expectations of hundreds of billions in revenue alongside massive computing power losses laid on the table, $ANTHROPIC is attempting to enter the public market with a valuation close to two trillion dollars.
Quarterly revenues exceeding ten billion dollars and the first positive operating profit provide tangible evidence of self-sustaining capability for the underlying model sector, which previously only consumed capital.
The core driver pushing up valuation expectations lies in the market's attempt to find a risk preference pivot point for tech assets between expanding computing power costs and high growth premiums.
As annualized revenue crosses the $60 billion threshold, tech growth stock positions, previously suppressed by macro liquidity, are concentrating on leading targets with clear profit inflection expectations.
If third-quarter operating profit breaks through one billion dollars as expected, strong cash flow improvements will directly offset concerns over heavy asset expenditures, supporting the continuation of a high valuation system at a 30x price-to-sales ratio.
If the full-year net loss of $40 billion continues to widen, the high computing power expenses will rapidly consume liquidity premiums, triggering defensive sell-offs in the secondary market over excessive valuation overdrafts.
Ultimately, what will determine whether this record fundraising can be smoothly realized remains the dynamic balance between market tolerance for high multiple valuations and actual profit growth rates.
The variable to watch most closely in the near future is the final confirmation in the public offering documents regarding the subsequent growth rate of computing power expenses and profit retention rates.
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 What is the probability judgment for $CORE to skyrocket???
Conclusion first: The probability of a short-term continuous violent surge, resulting in a doubling "skyrocketing" rally, is about 20%-25%, while the probability of a long-term trend big rally is less than 10%.
Positive factors: It is a representative token in the BTCFi sector, recently announced switching to on-chain revenue buyback of tokens, bringing narrative catalysts. The bottom started at $0.0167, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% in the last 7 days. Short-term funds have begun to flow back, overall market sentiment is warming up, providing speculative soil for small coins. But its major flaws are very obvious: First, early mobile mining airdrop chips are very abundant, with a huge historical trapped position; every wave of rise brings a large amount of selling pressure from unlocking; Second, the actual ecological activity has long been below expectations, the BTCFi narrative has not yet formed a sustained sector rally, mostly single-token pulse speculation; Third, the token unlocking cycle is very long, long-term potential selling pressure always exists, making it difficult to attract long-term funds to stay.
To truly achieve a skyrocketing rally, three conditions must be met simultaneously: BTCFi becomes the market's mainline hotspot, massive speculative funds concentrate relay, and a volume breakout above key resistance levels—none can be missing. At this stage, it is mostly just a rebound after overselling, with a high probability of repeated oscillations and pulses followed by rapid decline, making it highly speculative and risky.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL Say goodbye to "pure financial speculation"! How does ACO redefine Web3 implementation with a "full-life domain" approach? 🌐
If a public chain only has Swap and lending, once the market turns bearish, the ecosystem quickly becomes a "ghost town." The core strategy of the ACO whitepaper is to build a full-life domain ecological system:
📱 Four major native high-frequency scenarios
1️⃣ Crypto communication & DID: end-to-end encrypted IM to protect privacy and security; social relationship chains permanently belong to the user's DID.
2️⃣ Decentralized content plaza: an interactive ecosystem comparable to X/Twitter, where posting, liking, and quality content creation are mining activities.
3️⃣ On-chain audio and video live streaming: supports high-definition video live streaming and community voice rooms, with zero commission on tipping income directly reaching wallets.
4️⃣ Native DEX + RWA assets: supports cryptocurrency exchange and USDT-denominated U.S. stock token allocation, bridging real-world assets.
Having real traffic and daily high-frequency usage is the sustainable vitality of a public chain.
#Web3Applications #ACOecosystem #RWA #DecentralizedSocial #Blockchain Seeing quite a few people eager to short Bitcoin, you can take a look at the volume over the past two days: the trading volume in these two days has already surpassed the volume during the big drop in early June. Binance's trading volume hasn't exceeded that yet, but whether spot or ETF, the trading volume these two days far exceeds the volume during the early April rally. From a time perspective, a decent correction might only appear when the next liquidity test point is approaching. You can refer to the previously summarized changes in liquidity trends within the year for reference Let's talk about the rumors surrounding Ox Alpha, Xiaomi MiMo, and Zhipu.
Both companies have a history of anonymously testing models on OpenRouter, and the timing matches, making them the two main speculation targets in the market, but neither has officially confirmed anything.
If it's Zhipu: short-term sentiment is positive, as it has already seen a sharp rally. It seems that investors favor Zhipu more, but the August 31 interim report will be the real test; the model's capabilities must translate into revenue to count.
If it's Xiaomi MiMo: the premium on Zhipu rumors will decline, Xiaomi's AI logic will be further strengthened, and large models will empower phones and automotive hardware.
It’s also possible that it’s neither, and the hype will just fade away.
Zhipu is a pure large model company, currently tackling commercialization; Xiaomi’s advantage lies in its massive hardware terminals, using AI to empower existing products.
The rumors are just a short-term catalyst; ultimately, it depends on real business implementation.
Who do you bet Ox Alpha is, Xiaomi or Zhipu?
⚠️ Personal opinion, not investment advice. There might be some good news for those looking to withdraw funds; you might want to wait a bit longer.
800 billion RMB targeted release
This is not QE, nor is it a liquidity injection; the funds come from idle commercial bank reserves, the scale is not large, and the impact on the exchange rate is minimal. The key point is targeted support for AI and the digital economy, which may not flow into the international market. However, the liquidity release could affect market sentiment.
Reference from last year: starting late September, 500 billion was released, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, causing a slight rise in the USD/CNY exchange rate. This year the scale is larger (800 billion), and the USD is unlikely to cut rates, so the exchange rate in September might improve slightly (though the overall trend remains pessimistic).
Ministry of Finance accelerates US Treasury buybacks
From September 9 to November 4, this will help boost short-term confidence in the USD.
USDT trend
Last year it was mainly at a premium; this year it is mainly at a discount. BTC has broken 75,000, and USDT is also showing an upward trend.
Overall, in the short term (within one month), the USD is likely to stabilize, so the plan is to observe further and look for opportunities before considering withdrawing funds again. Fundamental Research Report $ENS / Ethereum Name Service (Others) $3.20
Essentially: Ethereum Name Service ($ENS) overall score 52/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
First, the project: Ethereum Name Service (token $ENS), other sector. Focuses on ETH domain name system. Competitors include UNI, LRC. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction price $50-500/month, settled in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $8.62M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration via API/SDK evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Ethereum Name Service $3.00B, UNI undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. FDV: Ethereum Name Service $4.20B, UNI undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. Annual revenue: Ethereum Name Service $8.62M, UNI undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Ethereum Name Service undisclosed, UNI undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 347.9x, FDV divided by revenue 487.1x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Summary: fundamentals solid (score 52/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Tracking metrics: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information source public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
That's all for now, share your thoughts in the comments.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitThe necessary conditions for a true bull market!!! Currently, none are fully met
Bitcoin has continuously broken new stage highs, and the overall market sentiment is wildly warming up. Many are calling for a quick return to a bull market, but the core conditions for a real bull market have not been fully met at all. What we are seeing now is just a short squeeze rebound, definitely not the start of a new bull market.
First, the main force behind this rise is short liquidations and leverage short squeezes, not large-scale inflows of incremental spot funds from outside the market. Futures trading volume overwhelms spot trading, indicating a leveraged stock market, not an incremental bull market.
Second, ETF funds have only intermittent inflows, with no sustained, multi-day stable net inflows. There is no signal of institutional long-term positioning; it is mostly short-term arbitrage funds rotating repeatedly.
Third, regulation only has expected positive news, with no formal implemented policies. The biggest uncertainty in the industry remains, so large funds will not rashly take full positions.
Fourth, the market still shows rapid rotation of hot spots, continuous sell-offs of old monsters, and MEME purely emotional speculation. There is no bull market structure with broad market-wide gains and sector resonance.
In summary: what we have now is just a strong rebound from oversold repair plus short liquidation. The necessary conditions for a bull market are far from sufficient, and chasing highs carries great risk.
(This article is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice) #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 $BTC $ETH $SOL The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, although not large relative to the massive U.S. debt market and not equivalent to the Fed's QE or direct money printing, sends an important policy signal:
The U.S. government is beginning to respond more actively to liquidity and yield pressures in the long-term Treasury market. After the announcement, long-term Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and assets such as gold, stocks, and Bitcoin rose simultaneously.China's rocket recovery success! $SPCX directly dropped 20%. China has made a breakthrough in rocket recovery technology, which indeed breaks SpaceX's previous monopoly.
Recovery capability is no longer a technology exclusive to Musk's side. The high valuation logic that SpaceX originally relied on is starting to be challenged. This wave of decline may not be over yet. Besides the heavy spending pressure related to AI, the more critical issue is that its previous valuation premium is rapidly disappearing.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Why do I feel that $BTC and $ETH will rebound, but reaching new highs is difficult?
With the launch of ETFs and the Wall Street-ification of BTC and ETH, BTC and ETH have become denominator assets, with completely identical attributes.
ETH only amplifies BTC's volatility; it has little to do with RWA or on-chain activity. The core still depends on long-term U.S. Treasury yields, discount rates, and risk premiums.#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch $PEOPLE upper resistance at 0.0115-0.0116 (today's high), 0.0120 (round psychological level); lower support at 0.0109-0.0110 (7-day moving average + psychological level), 0.0105, 0.0096 (30-day moving average)
The chip structure of PEOPLE is a standard "open-card dealer stock," with the top 10 holdings accounting for 82% of the total, and the top 100 wallets holding 92%.
30 minutes ago, one address withdrew 6.38 million PEOPLE from Binance (about $680,000). Big holders are continuously buying. A whale withdrew 10 million PEOPLE from OKX 5 hours ago (about $1.08 million). This address previously received 20 million PEOPLE at an average price of $0.013, currently with an unrealized profit of $1.88 million.
Contract trading volume is several times that of spot, indicating the market is supported by leverage rather than pure spot buying.
The PEOPLE token follows the same pattern as NEIRO and BOME—extremely concentrated holdings, dominated by big holders, driven by Meme sentiment.
Previously, there was a big holder named Zhang Wuji who made over 100 million on $PEOPLE alone; it's unknown if he is still around.$ETH: To the brothers who curse "ETH is dead," does your face hurt?
The hottest player in the market these past two days isn't Bitcoin, it's Ethereum.
It surged over 20% in two days, reclaiming the 2200 and 2300 whole number levels in one go, currently priced at $2317. ETH ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $189 million, hitting a new high since last October — institutions are genuinely buying with real money this time, not just talking.
The Fear and Greed Index hit 62, the most greedy level since October 2025. Just two weeks ago, brothers were spamming "ETH is dead, burn some paper" in the comments, but now the bulls have trampled over their graves.
But to pour some cold water: this rally is driven by policy expectations plus a short squeeze, a typical "expectation trade," not a sudden fundamental shift. If the Senate vote on the "Clear Act" on September 15th fails, this policy premium could be wiped out at any time.
Don’t get cocky when it rises, don’t panic when it falls. Keep dollar-cost averaging if you do, and good luck to those going all in.If you only see HYPE as a "hot altcoin," you might miss what truly makes it worth studying. Because the real value behind HYPE is not just a simple token story, but a set of on-chain trading infrastructure forming a commercial closed loop—Hyperliquid. As of now, HYPE's price is roughly in the $55–60 range, and its market cap has entered the top ten global crypto assets. More importantly, Hyperliquid is no longer just a niche decentralized trading platform; it has formed considerable competitiveness in the perpetual contracts market. So when studying HYPE, you should really ask three questions: Does Hyperliquid have a moat? Can the platform's earnings truly flow back to HYPE? How long can this growth continue? 1. The greatest value of HYPE is not the "narrative," but the revenue. Many crypto projects face the biggest problem that: there are many users, large trading volumes, and lively communities, but token holders cannot truly share the value created by the platform. HYPE's biggest difference currently lies here. Hyperliquid's trading business generates real fees, and a large portion of these fees in its ecosystem go into the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund, which is used to continuously buy back HYPE. Public information shows that Hyperliquid's mechanism uses the vast majority of trading fees for HYPE buybacks, which means the more prosperous the platform business is, theoretically$BTC just made a move traders should pay attention to.
$BTC Bitcoin has pushed back above $70K after spending weeks below it. The important part now isn't chasing the pump.
I'm watching 3 things:
• Can BTC hold the $70K area?
• Does volume confirm the breakout?
• Will altcoins follow, or does BTC absorb the liquidity?
If BTC holds the breakout and builds a higher low, the market structure starts looking much healthier.$HYPE Nears Major Bearish OB: Breakout or 30% Breakdown?
$HYPE is already very close to the HTF Bearish OB at $72–$76, making this a high-confluence short area IMO.
If price gets rejected here, a 20–30% downside move toward the Bullish OB at $53–$56 is possible.
The invalidation is clean: any HTF candle close above $77 invalidates the bearish setup, keeping the risk relatively tight.$PEOPLE understands clearly that crypto players currently have no interest in high-tech, high-market-cap, high-VC projects because they have experienced FLOKI, PEPE, IRDI—these low-market-cap coins skyrocketing dozens of times. Therefore, they are not interested in those high-market-cap VC coins. Concepts like real-world asset tokenization (RWA) and top-tier high-performance L1 universal new public chains, although impressive and powerful, are irrelevant to these players and hold no appeal. Instead, these crypto players prefer grassroots culture and coins that can make a comeback.BTC surged straight from 64000, breaking through 72000, 73000, and 75000. It rose over 10,000 USD in two days.
76400. A new three-month high.
In 24 hours, $3.3 billion liquidations occurred, with shorts accounting for $3.07 billion. Nearly 200,000 people were wiped out in one wave. The largest liquidation wave since 2021.
Whose money is fueling this rally?
First type of money: $3 billion — forced liquidation of short positions.
This is the gunpowder.
In the past six weeks, Bitcoin traded sideways between 62000 and 66900. Perpetual contract funding rates were persistently negative, with shorts leveraging to the extreme.
When the price broke key resistance levels, shorts triggered forced liquidations. Short liquidations require buying Bitcoin in the market, and this passive buying further pushed the price up, triggering the next batch of liquidations.
A stampede short squeeze.
But the problem is — the short squeeze is the trigger, not the ammunition.
Of the $3 billion shorts liquidated, only $260 million of longs were liquidated — an 11 to 1 ratio. What does this mean? This rally is almost entirely shorts being forced to buy, not longs actively going long.
The characteristic of a short squeeze rally is: it comes fast and goes fast.
Once the shorts are fully cleared, who will be the one to take the next position?
Second type of money: $517 million — ETF net inflows.
On August 19, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $517 million, the highest since May 4. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $285 million. The Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $189 million the same day. Totaling $706 million.
Net inflows for three consecutive days.
This is not short-term speculative capital. This is institutions building positions with real money.
But $517 million vs. $3 billion — a difference of an order of magnitude.
ETF money flows in slowly, while the $3 billion short squeeze hits within an hour.
Can slow money sustain the heights pushed by fast money?
Third type of money: $2.75 billion — whales quietly accumulating over 60 days.
This is the easiest signal to overlook.
In the past 60 days, large holders have net increased about 43,000 BTC, worth $2.75 billion, ending months of prior selling.
These whales bought steadily as Bitcoin dropped near 60,000.
They are not chasing highs. They are bottom fishing.
But $2.75 billion is the total over 60 days, averaging less than $50 million per day. Compared to the $3 billion short squeeze, this is also slow money.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ BTC's current rally has reached a point where the market should no longer dwell on the question "why is it rising?" because the answer is becoming increasingly clear. On one hand, BTC has broken through its previous long-term consolidation range. On the other hand, a large number of shorts have been forced to liquidate. Meanwhile, ETF funds have shown a clear inflow again, and the macro environment has also improved to some extent. From August 20 to 21, the crypto market saw nearly $3.8 billion in short liquidations over two days, with BTC briefly breaking above $75,500. On August 19, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of about $517.2 million. These data collectively indicate that the market structure of BTC is indeed changing. However, change does not mean the trend has been fully confirmed. The real key is whether new funds will continue to take over in the next phase. I believe the five most important indicators to watch for BTC in the future are: First, ETFs. This is currently the most important institutional capital entry point. If ETFs continue to see net inflows, it means traditional capital is increasing BTC allocations. Second, the spot market. If spot trading remains active during price increases, it indicates the rise is not purely driven by leverage. Third, derivatives. If open interest grows rapidly and funding rates rise quickly, but spot capital does not increase correspondingly, the risk will grow higher. Fourth, $70,000. The importance of this level has surpassed a simple round number. If BTC can complete turnover above $70,000, this area may shift from resistance to support. Fifth,Are you short?
If you are short, you should have already been liquidated by now.
If you're not short, you must be struggling with one question—
Chase or not chase?
In the past two days, Bitcoin surged straight from $64,000 to a high of $76,000.
Twelve thousand points in two days.
Nearly $3 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the market in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $3.07 billion. Nearly 200,000 people were wiped out in one wave.
This is the largest liquidation wave since 2021.
Market sentiment switched from "cold to frozen" to "FOMO off the charts" overnight.
Everyone is focused on the same question: Is this a short squeeze rebound or a trend reversal?
Short squeeze is the fire, policy is the wind, and ETFs are the fuel. The resonance of these three makes this fire burn longer than most people expect.
On August 19, Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, and others at the Roosevelt Room in the White House.
He said three things—
"The government has completely ended the war on cryptocurrencies."
"The U.S. is already discussing accumulating a substantial amount, even large-scale Bitcoin holdings."
"Cryptocurrencies have greatly alleviated the pressure on the dollar."
On the same day, the U.S. Treasury announced it would increase long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion.
The president and Treasury of the world's largest economy sent crypto-friendly signals on the same day.
Long-term holders currently control 83% of Bitcoin chips, the highest since December 2023.
Only 14% of chips cost over $100,000, far below 30% in October last year.
Selling pressure is not that high anymore.
But whether new demand can catch up is the key.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick said Bitcoin is expected to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.
He said the Treasury buybacks are "exactly what Bitcoin loves."
There is still 32% room to reach $100,000.
But the premise is—this rally is not a false fire.
Is this rally just starting, or has it already peaked?
My answer: It's the early stage, but there will be intense volatility in the short term.
Short squeeze is the fire, policy is the wind, ETFs are the fuel.
The fire has started, the wind is blowing, and the fuel is stacked.
But whether the fire can become a prairie fire depends on whether the fuel supply can continue.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Many people judge a bull market by a very intuitive standard: continuous price increases. A 5% rise in one day. An 8% rise the next day. The third day continues to hit new highs. It looks very strong. But a truly mature bull market is often not like this. A truly strong market sometimes shows a seemingly "unexciting" trend: prices don't rise, but they also don't fall. Why? Because the market is undergoing high-level turnover. Early investors start selling. New funds keep coming in. So although the price temporarily doesn't rise, the support below becomes stronger and stronger. This market structure is actually healthier than continuous surges. Recently, BTC has experienced a rapid rise. On August 20, it broke through $70,000, and then on August 21, it once broke through $75,500. If BTC continues to rise vertically directly afterward, of course, it would be very exciting. But the market will also become increasingly crowded. On the contrary, if BTC consolidates above $70,000 for a few days or even longer, the market begins to show divergence: some believe it can't rise anymore. Some believe it will continue to rise. But the price just won't fall. This is actually a signal worth paying attention to. Because it means the selling pressure is being absorbed. And the longer there is no significant drop, the more it indicates the market's acceptance of this price range is increasing. ETF funds are also important here. On August 19, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $517.2 million. If the ETF continues to maintain net inflows during BTC's consolidation period in the future, then When the market is rising, everyone is studying how much more it can go up. But those who truly understand the capital structure focus on another question: What happens if BTC suddenly stops rising? This question is very important. Because during the rising phase, all funds move in the same direction. But once the price stops rising, the true internal structure of the market will be exposed. Suppose BTC starts to consolidate around $75,000 now. The first batch of funds might just be taking profits. This is normal. If the spot buying is strong enough, the price may continue to hold at a high level. In the second phase, if short-term bulls begin to lose patience, some leveraged positions may start to exit. Volatility will increase at this point. In the third phase, if ETF funds simultaneously decrease, the market will begin to reassess the logic of the rise. In the fourth phase, if the price further breaks key support levels, then trend-following funds may also start to reduce positions. Thus, an ordinary consolidation can gradually evolve into a clear correction. Therefore, judging the quality of the BTC market cannot be based solely on the rising phase. More importantly: after the rise stops, is the buying still there? Recently, ETF funds have been a relatively positive signal. On August 19, the net inflow of the US spot BTC ETF was about $517.2 million. This indicates that there is indeed active allocation of funds in the market. If BTC experiences a pullback in the future, and ETF funds continue to flow in, it means institutional funds are willing to keep buying during the decline. This kind of market is usually healthier. But if BTC stops Here are some data points for everyone to judge the market outlook:
1. Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $517 million yesterday, hitting a three-and-a-half-month high, real money flowing in.
2. In the past 3 days, over $4 billion in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with an estimated half belonging to Bitcoin, over $2 billion.
3. In other words, with less than $3 billion in buying, the coin price rose from 64k to 76k.
3. Looking at Coinbase's premium chart, the first wave of the rally is within the red box (the first rapid premium increase), driven by real money from Americans, accompanied by the first day of massive short liquidations. Judging from the subsequent sharp drop in premium, it might have been a wash trade, but the price was supported by spot and futures. The reason is that despite massive liquidations, the futures open interest didn't drop much, indicating some funds stepped in, and ETF inflows started to increase significantly. Then at the US stock market open overnight, another wave of real money came in (the red area shrank quickly), with little increase in open interest, indicating spot buying by Americans still dominated, so the risk remains low. Now during Asian hours, the discount is widening again (red area expands again), and futures open interest has increased somewhat, indicating some are starting to leverage long positions, and risk is beginning to accumulate.
In summary, Trump's policies plus pressure on long-term bond yields have driven this Bitcoin rally. Rapid rises will gather short-term risk. Those who missed out need not worry, and holders need not panic. What you need to know is that the American crypto trading channel is very smooth, so sentiment lasting 2-3 days is normal. If it lasts longer, it will fade. When the gains become too large combined with fading sentiment, a correction will occur. At that time, if you still believe the bear market is over or the cost-performance ratio is right, entering then will be cheaper than now. #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
Just saw this trending topic, so I checked the details again.
According to media reports, Anthropic may publicly submit IPO documents as early as the end of August, with a fundraising scale possibly exceeding SpaceX's record of $75 billion. If true, this would be the largest IPO in global history, bar none.
Why dare to go this big? Because the revenue data is truly explosive. Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a 14-fold increase from $787 million in the same period last year. By the end of July, annualized revenue had surged to $65 billion, more than seven times in less than a year. More importantly, the company's adjusted operating profit turned positive in Q2, with an operating margin of about 5%, and Q3 is expected to surpass $1 billion.
Keep in mind, this is an AI company still burning massive cash on computing power, so achieving profitability means the business model is indeed working.
But the valuation is outrageously high. Market discussions put the valuation close to $2 trillion, which, based on $65 billion annualized revenue, implies a price-to-sales ratio of about 30x, already at the upper limit for high-growth SaaS companies. Also, the company is projected to have a net loss of about $42 billion in 2025, with huge pressure from computing costs.
When SpaceX IPO'd, its valuation was $1.77 trillion. If Anthropic wants to surpass that, it depends on whether you believe AI's revenue growth can keep up.