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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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你空了吗? 如果你空了,现在应该已经爆了。 如果你没空,现在应该在纠结一件事—— 追,还是不追? 过去两天,比特币从64000美元直线拉升,最高触及76000美元。 两天,12000点。 24小时全市场爆仓接近30亿美元,空单占了30.7亿。近20万人被一波带走。 这是2021年以来最大规模的清算潮。 市场情绪从“冷到结冰”切换到“FOMO爆表”,只用了一个晚上。 所有人都盯着同一个问题:这到底是逼空反弹,还是趋势反转? 逼空是火,政策是风,ETF是柴。三者共振,这火烧得比大多数人想象的要久。 8月19日,特朗普在白宫罗斯福厅会见了Coinbase、Ripple、Gemini等加密行业高管。 他说了三句话—— “政府已经彻底结束了对加密货币的战争。” “美国已经在讨论积累可观数量甚至大规模的比特币。” “加密货币大大减轻了美元的压力。” 同一天,美国财政部宣布将长期国债回购规模从20亿美元提高到40亿美元。 全球最大经济体的总统和财政部,在同一天释放了加密友好信号 长期持有者目前控制着83%的比特币筹码,是2023年12月以来最高。 只有14%的筹码成本在10万美元以上,远低于去年10月的30%。 卖压没那么大了。 但新增需求能不能接住,才是关键。 渣打银行分析师Geoff Kendrick说,比特币有望在2026年底达到10万美元。 他说财政部回购“正是比特币最喜欢的事情”。 距离10万,还有32%的空间。 但前提是——这轮上涨不是虚火。 这轮上涨刚开局,还是已经到顶了? 我的答案:开局阶段,但短期会有剧烈震荡。 逼空是火,政策是风,ETF是柴。 火烧起来了,风也吹了,柴也堆上了。 但火能不能烧成燎原之势,看的是柴能不能持续供应。 $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升,资金还能继续接力吗?
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Although Bitcoin has broken through 75,000, Coinbase Bitcoin still has a negative premium Today, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index narrowed its negative premium to -0.0221%, but it still remains in a negative premium state. Data shows that from May 19 to August 21, this index has been in the negative premium range for 95 consecutive days, setting the longest continuous negative premium record since the index was launched. 40 days in January → 30 days during the 1011 crash → now 95 days. The three longest periods of Coinbase negative premium in Bitcoin history have each lasted longer and been deeper than the last. 40 days (January-February): The market considered this a "seasonal correction," expecting the negative premium to quickly recover. 30 days (1011 crash): The market saw this as a "panic sell-off," expecting sentiment to improve once the panic passed. 95 days (now): From May 19 to August 21, a full quarter. This can no longer be explained by "sentiment." The longest negative premium may indicate the greatest suppression. When U.S. buying returns, the intensity of the rebound could also set a record. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升,资金还能继续接力吗?

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