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Surged wildly, shorts wiped out
✅Today's market characterization
Core drivers (3 main lines)
Macro: The U.S. Treasury is increasing long-term bond repurchases, suppressing long-term U.S. Treasury yields, boosting risk appetite, serving as the underlying catalyst for this rally
Institutional funds: Large single-day net inflows into BTC spot ETFs, institutional funds actively entering, resonating with previous ETH ETF inflows, driving the entire crypto market higher
Capital structure: Typical short squeeze, a chain of forced liquidations of low-position short orders, passive buying further pushing prices up; 24-hour short liquidation scale significantly expanded, amplifying upward momentum
Market features: Volume breakout, BTC leading the rise, ETH following (ETH with greater elasticity); but daily RSI has surged to around 82, entering extreme overbought territory, short-term momentum overextended, with potential for long upper shadows and profit-taking spikes at any time
📌Key levels (short-term focus)
Resistance
First resistance: 76800–76900 (today's intraday high, short-term concentrated selling zone)
Second resistance: 79000–80000 (important upper structural resistance, the second target of this rebound)
Support (from near to far)
Short-term strength lifeline: 72000 (breakout starting point this round, holding this keeps the bullish structure intact)
Secondary support: 70000 round number (psychological + structural dual support)
Strong support: 68000 (starting platform of this rally, breaking below signals the phase end of this short squeeze rally)
📊Indicators & derivatives status
Volume: 24-hour turnover significantly expanded, incremental funds entering; but after a volume surge, if volume contracts, upward momentum will quickly fade
Overbought signals: RSI and stochastic indicators plateau at high levels, overbought does not mean immediate reversal, but chasing highs has very low tolerance for errors and is prone to short-term pullbacks
Futures: Network-wide open interest continues to rise, leveraged funds massively entering, funding rates turning positive; sustained high positive funding rates often accelerate profit-taking by bulls
Correlation: BTC leads this rally, ETH follows with stronger gains; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and ETF fund flows are the primary observation anchors next
🧩Two scenario simulations
✅Bullish scenario (baseline): Retrace and hold 72000 with volume contraction and stabilization → retest 76800, then break out with volume to challenge near 80000; but under overbought conditions, continuous large green candles become increasingly difficult, favoring wide-range consolidation at high levels
⚠️Correction scenario (key risk): Volume break below 72000 triggers bull profit-taking wave, first retesting 70000; if 70000 breaks, further decline to 68000 to digest this rally's gains
💡Summary in one sentence
Today's BTC surge is driven by liquidity expectations + ETF funds + short squeeze synergy, with very strong bullish sentiment but severe short-term overbought and high volatility; 72000 is the short-term strength dividing line, 76800 is the first major resistance, strictly avoid chasing highs at elevated levels, prioritize guarding against pullbacks and spike washouts.
Additional note: BTC is the market anchor; its fluctuations and pullbacks directly drive ETH's synchronous movements. The core anchors for ETH you observed earlier are BTC and U.S. Treasury liquidity.
$BTC $ETH $XRP $DOGE $SOL @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 My Big Panda Bro's indicator is here!
Panda Bro uses SLRV dropping to a historic low to conclude that "Bitcoin's bottom is almost reached," but logically this is seriously untenable and has three obvious blind spots:
1️⃣ Confusing "state" with "point in time": SLRV dropping to an extremely low level only objectively describes the extreme dormancy of on-chain transactions at the moment, which absolutely does not equal a price bottom. Looking back at 2018, SLRV entered the bottom red box early, but the price then suffered a severe 50% plunge. The indicator entering a low level is only a necessary condition for entering a bottoming phase, far from a sufficient condition. Directly declaring "bottom reached" mistakes a long, disorderly bottoming range for a precise reversal point.
2️⃣ Ignoring the structural pattern of a "flat bottom" consolidation: According to Bitcoin's macro cycle evolution, real bear market bottoms rarely complete with a "V-shaped" sharp rebound; instead, they inevitably go through an extremely low volatility flat bottom structure. During this sideways consolidation phase, the market needs ample time to settle chips and thoroughly clear leverage and speculative funds. Simply seeing SLRV bottoming and declaring the bottom is done completely ignores the necessary temporal and spatial process of flat bottom consolidation.
3️⃣ Indicator failure due to rigid application: After spot ETFs and institutions took over the market, a large amount of trading shifted to internal matching within CEX and custody vaults, structurally changing on-chain UTXOs and causing the indicator's center of gravity to shift downward overall. Applying absolute values from the old cycle to the current institutionalized market is nothing but blindly guessing the bottom from the left side.
In summary, it is not advisable to heavily buy the "bottom" at the current position; lightly waiting for a lower bottom is a safer approach, though dollar-cost averaging all the way down is also acceptable. The White House summit mentioned purchasing BTC, so the market is naturally excited
But I actually think the most important question here is: what kind of BTC is being bought?
If it’s just managing already confiscated crypto assets, then it’s more like asset disposal and reserve management; if in the future there is truly a public increase in holdings, then the meaning is completely different, equivalent to putting BTC into the framework of the national balance sheet discussion. Both sound like "government holding BTC," but for market pricing, they are completely different matters
This kind of news easily ignites emotions
Because it satisfies BTC holders’ deepest fantasy: that one day, sovereign assets will also recognize it. But from policy discussion to execution, there are many hurdles including Congress, Treasury, audits, legal authorization, and political disputes
I would treat it as a long-term narrative bonus, not as a short-term confirmed buy
BTC’s real victory is not being hyped by someone
It is being institutionally allowed to be held on the books long-term
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC I must admit, I was wrong. The market is most likely following pattern A. BTC price has broken through 74700, ema200, ma200. I no longer have any reason to be bearish. Moreover, the market has made a particularly dangerous flat-bottom surge, which in every cycle signals leaving the bottom range. I have stopped out all my BTC short positions and bought half a position in BTC spot. The remaining portion will be gradually invested over 90 days. During this period, I will not engage in any contracts, waiting for the price to break through 83 to confirm the start of a bull market. I will enter BTC coin contracts based on the 577 bottom during the pullback. If this is the start of a bull market, it is only the very beginning. Now, I have only lost the left-side entry opportunity; there is no need to stubbornly hold a short position. Trading the next cycle is more important than anything else.$BTC rose nearly 10% in one day.
Many are cheering the breakout, but I'm watching one address.
bc1qsylwjhesm58uw9vsp7vwgadq5fqna4e3e8qnpd (bc1qsy)
In the past ~2 hours: deposited another 3,000 BTC to Binance (about $225.7 million).
Since July 19: a total deposit of about 12,513.5 BTC (about $850 million).
There is only one path:
Whale wallet → Exchange → Available supply for sale.
Note: Depositing coins ≠ dumping.
It could also be OTC, collateral, or portfolio adjustment.
But during a rapid rise, continuously sending coins into the tradable zone — this is not accumulation narrative, it's preparation for cashing out.
On the contract side, shorts are liquidating, the fee rate is not extreme, so there is still short-term momentum.
On-chain data tells me another thing: the fuel for the rise is short squeeze, but the chips are close to the sell side.
Do you think this is portfolio adjustment after positioning, or the prelude to selling during the rally? #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认
SK Hynix's buyback plan has officially been implemented, directly driving the stock price up and putting full pressure on its competitor Samsung Electronics: When will your shareholder return plan catch up?
This battle between the two storage giants essentially reflects two completely different capital allocation logics:
Hynix's confidence lies in leading HBM: Thanks to its dominant position in NVIDIA's supply chain, Hynix has profited handsomely from the AI storage wave, with high profit margins supporting ample cash flow for large-scale buybacks and dividends, greatly boosting market confidence.
Samsung's dilemma is a fundamental shift: Although massive in scale, Samsung has lagged behind in the validation and mass production progress of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) by half a step, coupled with fluctuations in the general DRAM cycle, making management relatively restrained when announcing aggressive shareholder returns.
Capital rebalancing in the storage supercycle: AI demand is reshaping the cash flow structure of the storage industry. Whoever can efficiently convert profits into shareholder returns will gain a premium in valuation multiples.
Do you think Samsung will roll out a heavy dividend to turn the tide next?
#SK海力士 #三星 #半导体 #HBM #美股 Gold rose 10.8% over 30 days, but only +1.0% over 90 days. In other words, it has been almost flat for three months, with all the gains concentrated in the most recent month. This is a concentrated repricing. The trigger is very clear: U.S. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, the first negative growth since February 2026, market expectations for a September rate hike dropped directly from 58% to 40%, the dollar index fell below 100, and long-term yields fell in sync. So the nature of this buying round needs to be clarified: it’s not buying for safety, but for rate cut expectations. Gold does not yield interest; its opportunity cost is the real interest rate. When rate expectations go down, it becomes attractive, which is different from war or panic. $BTC follows the same trend, just later and more aggressively, with 30-day +18.8%, 7-day +24.6%, and the explosive power in the last week is 5.6 times that of gold—under the same macro expectation, money flows into gold first, then spills over into risk assets. This also means they share a common vulnerability: if employment data strengthens and rate hike expectations return, this batch of money will be the first to loosen. What I’m watching is not the gold price itself, but the next nonfarm payroll report. 本轮BTC从低位反弹至75000美元附近，本质并非海量新增实体资金进场建仓，核心驱动力是空头集中爆仓的被动买盘： 1. 前期下跌过程中市场堆积了大量高位空单，价格小幅回升后，触发合约空头止损、强制平仓，平仓行为本身会产生买入委托，被动推高价格，形成“空头平仓→价格上涨→更多空头爆仓”的正向循环，也就是市场常说的“轧空行情”。 2. 从链上现货数据来看，主流机构现货囤币节奏并未出现爆发式增长，场外合规资金入场节奏平缓，没有出现大规模增量资金持续进场的信号，上涨更多是合约杠杆市场的内部资金博弈，而非长期资本入场。 3. 宏观层面，前期市场提前交易美联储降息预期，流动性宽松的情绪溢价助推了盘面，并非真实的资金面宽松落地；随着美联储会议纪要偏鹰，降息预期证伪，这部分情绪支撑也在消退。 结合清算数据也能印证：当前价位上方剩余空头清算体量已经大幅缩减，继续靠空头平仓拉升的动力已经枯竭；而下方64000附近堆积海量多头清算盘，一旦情绪反转，被动抛压会集中释放。$BTC $SOL $ETH #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ BTC continues to rally, ETFs are continuously flowing in, this wave is so smooth, let's see if the 82K resistance level can be broken $BTC
A huge bullish candlestick with massive volume appeared on the weekly chart, indicating that Bitcoin is about to experience a strong upward surge, heading straight to $80,000.
BTC weekly rose sharply from $62,800 to around $74,800, with a weekly increase close to 19%, while trading volume suddenly exploded.
Today BTC broke through the previous six-week consolidation range, accompanied by over $300 million in short liquidations.
Bitcoin needs to effectively break through $82K next. Not just touching $82K intraday and pulling back, but a weekly breakout, preferably with continued high volume.
Once broken through, it will go directly to $92K-96K. The timeframe is around October. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 前置信息 & 市场叙事 前置信息 比特币挑战美元霸权的现实路径仍待时间检验 比特币可能提供一种摆脱美元储备货币困境的出路，这一判断正在将比特币从单纯的投机资产推升为货币史叙事的核心议题。 美元作为全球储备货币的地位正面临多维度压力：美国国债规模已突破40万亿美元、冻结他国央行储备资产等制裁武器化操作加剧全球对美元体系的不信任、法币购买力在长期宽松周期下持续被稀释。 比特币凭借硬性供给上限、不依赖任何主权背书的技术架构、二十四小时可跨境流通的网络特性，被部分分析师视为对冲法币贬值的"数字黄金"。 但这一愿景真正落地，需要穿越波动性、流动性、监管协调、地缘博弈等多重现实障碍，绝非短期可成。 市场叙事 去美元化共识与比特币信仰共振放大预期 市场上围绕"比特币挑战美元"的讨论存在两种截然不同的叙事框架。 乐观派认为，随着各国央行持续印钞、地缘冲突加剧、美元武器化风险上升，比特币的"数字黄金"属性将吸引避险资金流入，成为继黄金之后的新型价Latest position plan: $XMR long 0.30, $SPCX long 0.40, $GRAM zeroed out. Gross reduced from 2.15 to 0.70. Rebalancing record: After the last round, the account net value dropped from about 899.6 USD to 855.5 USD, a loss of about 44.1 USD in the interval. MSFT→SPCX completed, this round continues to reduce XMR and SPCX, and exit GRAM. Rebalancing strategy: The GRAM source wallet still holds about 1.49m USD short position, but the current position has an unrealized loss of about 31.4k USD; our entry was later and at a worse cost, so no further averaging down. The XMR source wallet still holds about 671.3k USD long position, but there are already take-profit and exit orders, reducing the position to 30%. The SPCX source wallet still holds about 402.5k USD long position, with a 30-day attribution of about +147.6k USD, retaining 40%. Next step: First reduce gross to below 0.80, then observe the continuity of SPCX and whether to continue reducing XMR positions. Let me first summarize some common misconceptions:
1. Historically, bear markets have bottomed in December, so this year will too, meaning buy the dip in December.
2. Historically, bull markets start amid widespread skepticism and pessimism, but this time many are optimistic, so it’s a fake bull market.
3. Historically, Bitcoin rises first, then altcoins follow; this time altcoins started first, so it’s a fake bull market.
4. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets saw drops of over 70%, but this time it only dropped about 50%, so there’s still a lot of downside, meaning you should only buy at 40,000.
See? All these are superficial conclusions drawn from surface-level "experience," basically carving marks on a boat—they don’t think about the underlying logic.
The result is missing out; the higher the price rises, the more you miss out, and the more missing out there is, the more fuel there is for the bull market.
What we should understand and master for life:
1. Liquidity determines the length of a bear market: past bears lasted a year because interest rate policies were wildly fluctuating, with continuous rate hikes and balance sheet reductions, policies taken step by step, dragging out the time and causing a big drop and long bear market.
2. On the basis of clearing selling pressure, what determines the start of a bull market is continuous buying, unrelated to sentiment; optimistic sentiment can also start a bull market.
3. Liquidity = chip structure x narrative fuel x competing asset odds. When a market bull top is reached, buying dries up, chips are fragile, and rate cuts don’t necessarily push prices up because capital won’t foolishly buy an asset at its price peak, leading to a bear market and big drop. So capital flows to higher-odds fields like AI, where liquidity never stops; capital goes where the cost-performance ratio is best.
Look, so many people are playing with AI this year, Bitcoin is barely alive, so some conclude the crypto space is finished and worthless. This conclusion is worthless. This year the crypto space itself is in a bear market, undergoing deleveraging and chip clearing—how could it rise?
Now Bitcoin has surged, but the US stock market is barely moving, the index stagnant. Does this mean crypto has hope and stocks have no future?
This absurd conclusion is like "diagnosing by touching the tongue"—ignoring underlying logic and relying on so-called experience will inevitably lead to losses, either missing out or chasing highs.
I will never forget October 2023, when Bitcoin dropped to around 25,000.
The whole industry was panicking and anxious, thinking it would retest 19,000.
I also read bearish views from very credible people—Wall Street experience, PhDs, finance masters, etc.—who, through rigorous logic and authoritative theory, predicted bearish outcomes and charged groups teaching how to buy the dip at lower prices.
But Bitcoin took off directly at the end of October 2023; 25,000 was the lowest point then.
I hesitated, bought and sold, thinking buying below 20,000 would be more profitable, causing me to miss out and put some funds into cheaper altcoins.
So, back to now, don’t just look at prices; also try to recall and remember the emotions and thoughts at this bear market bottom, and what others thought.
What those so-called teachers were thinking.
Next bear market bottom will have the same “teachers” coming out to diagnose by touching the tongue.
Their rhetoric will be exactly the same; I hope everyone won’t be influenced.
The tougher the bear market, the more you must persist in buying and then waiting.
Stick to simple principles; simplicity is the winning formula.
Most importantly, learn some underlying rules, especially follow our account 😄$BTC Analysis of This Rally
This rally is driven by a combination of macroeconomic tailwinds and a short squeeze rebound, not purely new incremental capital inflow.
1. Drivers: U.S. Treasury repo operations led to a decline in yields, combined with expectations of crypto-friendly regulation; a large accumulation of short positions previously, followed by short covering buying after the breakout, violently pushing prices up and causing massive short liquidations.
2. Market: Short-term sentiment has entered the greed zone, with $BTC leading the rally, $ETH following, and altcoins showing significant divergence.
3. Key levels: 70000-72000 is the core support; holding this range means continued upward testing of resistance; breaking below this range could lead to a rapid pullback.
4. Risks: This is a short squeeze rebound, not a new bull market; future developments depend on sustained ETF capital inflows, Federal Reserve policies, and the enactment of U.S. crypto legislation. Any reversal in news could trigger a sharp sell-off! $TRUMP should be ready for the positive news to land and then turn into a trap, right? Is there anyone still daring to charge forward?
The whole network is rising, TRUMP coin also pulled up 3%, OKEx real-time price at $1.7.
Personally, I feel the plot is classic: before the White House crypto roundtable, funds were pre-positioned, intraday it once surged 26%; but when the meeting actually started and Trump really made a statement, the positive news was realized, and they planned to dump directly after the buildup. Buy the rumor, sell the fact, an old script, but this time it played out honestly.
This presidential concept coin has no fundamentals, it all depends on Trump's words. The CLARITY Act won't be reviewed again until the Senate reconvenes in September, so there's a news vacuum in between, and speculative funds will most likely retreat.
I'm on the opposite side, got tricked into getting on the ride. 1.62 was today's low, if it breaks below that, it should go to 1.5. Isn't BTC and ETH more attractive? They should all go there. Can this scumbag coin just drop for me?The whole network is chasing HYPE, but DOGE gained over 8% in one day: that dog you laughed at for a year has risen from the grave again $DOGE
Let's start with the facts
Dogecoin DOGE is reported at the $0.077–0.08 range, up 8%–10% in 24h, bouncing back from the three-year low of 0.067 at the beginning of August, rising nearly 14% in a week;
This surge isn’t because it’s strong on its own, but because BTC surged to 75,000, squeezing all the shorts in the market, with 130,000 people and $1.2 billion liquidated in 24h, shorts accounting for over $1 billion, and DOGE shorts were also conveniently harvested;
But what really caught my eye is on-chain data: in the past week, whales added over 430 million DOGE, bringing total holdings to about 18.9 billion — those daring to buy at the 0.07 level aren’t retail FOMO buyers, but old money picking up bargains.
Don’t forget this dog still holds two unplayed cards:
In March 2026, the SEC will officially classify it as a "digital commodity," and 21Shares’ DOE/TDOG is already listed on Nasdaq, so the institutional channel is not just a PPT;
If X Money really integrates DOGE into the payment layer for 600 million users later, the term "meme coin" will have to be dropped and replaced with "mass settlement layer."
The most frustrating thing about DOGE is this:
It inflates every year, has no smart contracts, and its code hasn’t been significantly updated in ten years, but every time you say it’s dead, it bites back from 0.07 to 0.3. $DOGE Fundamental Research Report $MASK / Mask Network (Others) $3.20
Straight to the point: Mask Network ($MASK) comprehensive score 52/100, rating Narrative over Implementation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Mask Network (token $MASK), other sector. Focuses on Web3 social middleware. Competitors include ENS, LRC. Traditional centralized platforms take 15-40% commission, user data is not controlled by users. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer price $50-500/month, payment in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Mask Network $3.00B, ENS undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. FDV: Mask Network $4.20B, ENS undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. Annual revenue: Mask Network $2.00M, ENS undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Mask Network undisclosed, ENS undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 52/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next watch these metrics: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. Core financial indicators deviating more than 30% require reassessment.
That's all for fundamentals, the rest is up to the market.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit BTC 74,681, I choose to fully exit my Bitcoin position.
Not because I think Bitcoin has peaked; on the contrary, the current mid-term trend remains bullish.
This rally from around 63K to 75K has a clear underlying logic: continuous spot ETF accumulation, a weakening US dollar, improved liquidity conditions, combined with large-scale short liquidations, ultimately forming a rally driven by spot demand and contract short squeezes.
Although Funding rates have heated up, they have not yet reached an extreme overheat zone; Open Interest is rebuilding, and on-chain data does not currently show typical large-scale distribution signals characteristic of cycle tops. Therefore, my exit is not a top call but a proactive profit-taking after a short-term acceleration, waiting for a better risk-reward ratio.
Currently, BTC on the 4H chart has clearly deviated from the mid-term moving average and is trading near the upper Bollinger Band, so the odds of chasing the rally further in the short term have decreased.
Next, I will focus on three key levels:
72K–73K: first pullback observation zone
69.5K–71K: more ideal re-entry zone
67K–68K: important defense zone for the breakout structure
What I really want to see is not just "price dropping," but:
Price pullback + OI decline + Funding cooling + continued net inflows into ETFs + ongoing spot accumulation.
If this combination appears, I will regard it as a healthy deleveraging pullback rather than the end of the rally.
Meanwhile, there are two important macro windows next week:
August 26 PCE/GDP → August 27–29 Jackson Hole.
If inflation data is moderate and policy signals do not turn overtly hawkish, after BTC completes chip distribution, the mid-term trend still has a foundation to continue upward; conversely, if macro conditions turn hawkish again, deeper pullbacks must be guarded against.
As for altcoins, I still do not define this rally as a full altseason. After BTC’s rise, funds have indeed started to spread to some mid-cap altcoins, but until ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, BTC Dominance clearly declines, and TOTAL3 breaks through further, I prefer to define this as Beta diffusion under a BTC-led market.
So I exit BTC at 74,681 not because I am bearish, but to regain control.
If the market continues to rise, I accept smaller profits; if the market pulls back, I have cash ready to reposition.
Trading is not about selling at the absolute top, but about withdrawing risk when odds decline and betting again when favorable odds reappear.
Going forward, I won’t guess the top nor fear missing out.
I will wait for data, wait for pullbacks, and wait for the next high-odds opportunity. $NEIRO is clear now, crypto players currently have no interest in high-tech, high market cap, high VC projects because they have experienced FLOKI, PEPE, IRDI, PEOPLE—these low market cap grassroots coins that surged dozens of times. So now they are not interested in those high market cap VC coins, such as real-world asset tokenization (RWA), top-tier high-performance L1 general new public chains. Although these projects are popular, high-end, and impressive, in the eyes of many players, they are irrelevant to them and more of an institutional game, with no interest at all. Instead, small and medium retail investors in the crypto circle prefer grassroots culture coins that are fair and can achieve a comeback. Speaking of the coins that surged dozens of times mentioned above, FLOKI is an ecological native dog coin with a gaming ecosystem, using FLOKI tokens for small-scale payment ecosystems like shopping malls to break out; PEPE is a profound internet culture story about the sad Pepe frog breaking out; IRDI is the first Bitcoin inscription coin, which was once popular for inscription breakout; PEOPLE is a failed project that crowdfunded to auction the original copy of the U.S. Constitution. Although it failed, it was a decentralized autonomous DAO that achieved true fairness and had a significant impact on the crypto circle, thus breaking out.This breakout can no longer be explained as a weak rebound, but it is also not yet time to confirm a bull market reversal.
$BTC consolidated around 63,000 before breaking out with volume above the 69K-70K downtrend line, reaching a high above 75,700.
This level is not only a technical breakout but also a short stop-loss zone, a previous platform, and a confluence with the trendline, so the rally speed was very fast. #OKX
The core of the rise is not a single positive factor but a combination of macro, policy, capital, and liquidation driving it together.
US Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, easing pressure on risk assets; crypto regulatory expectations heated up, improving market pricing; after spot funds resumed buying, shorts concentrated on covering, pushing the market into a daily large bullish candle.
But from the trading structure perspective, this wave is not a pure spot slow bull.
BTC funding rates have clearly turned positive, and contract positions have rebounded, indicating leveraged funds are also chasing. The advantage is stronger trend elasticity; the downside is a high probability of a pullback and washout later, making a straight line to new highs unlikely.
Historically, strong rebounds in bear markets often first break the downtrend line, then push to the Fibonacci 38.2% or previous dense chip zones and get resisted. Calculating from the 126,000 high to the 58,000 low, around 74,000 is the 23.6% retracement, 84,000 is 38.2%, and 92,000 is 50%.
73,500–74,000 is the short-term strength/weakness line
70,000–72,000 is the breakout pullback zone
78,000–80,000 is the first resistance
82,000–84,000 is the most critical top zone of this rebound
88,000–92,000 requires sustained ETF inflows and continued cooperation from US stocks
My judgment: This rally has already shaken off weakness. Most likely, it will first oscillate upward, then diverge at high levels. As long as the pullback does not break below 70,000, the rebound still has a chance to continue until late August to early September, with a target high of 78,000–84,000.
But if BTC falls back below 70,000 and fails to recover, this breakout will be defined as a false breakout, and the downside will be revisited at 65,000 or even 60,000–62,000. The current strategy is to be bullish but not chase highs, waiting for pullback confirmation.
Don't rush to short or blindly chase longs; stay patient and observe. This rebound is fast-paced, so wait for pullback confirmation before deciding how the market will change!Today BTC surged again.
$75K+, over $1B in shorts liquidated in 24 hours.
But more interesting than the price is another piece of news:
Binance just launched Agent OS, allowing AI to access trading, wallets, payments, and on-chain capabilities with user authorization.
This makes me increasingly feel:
AI Agent + Wallet might be the real direction worth focusing on in the next phase of Web3.
Before, we asked AI:
"Will BTC go up?"
In the future, it might be:
"Help me monitor BTC."
"Execute when conditions are met."
"Help me manage multi-chain assets."
At this point, AI is no longer just a chatbot.
It needs a wallet.
And the wallet is no longer just a place to store coins, but could become the account through which AI Agents enter the on-chain world.
Of course, the smarter it gets, the more important security becomes.
Permissions, asset isolation, transaction confirmation, risk control—none can be missing.
So I think the competition for the next generation of wallets is not about who has the most features.
It's about who can make AI smarter, operations simpler, while keeping assets firmly in the user's hands.
This might be the most interesting thing about AI truly entering Crypto. 🚀$HYPE
The market is currently pricing $HYPE with a two-layer premium.
The first layer comes from the macro environment. The U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term bond repurchases, temporarily easing dollar and interest rate pressures. BTC has risen about 8.72% in the past 24 hours, and risk appetite is warming up again.
The second layer comes from Hyperliquid itself. U.S. regulators have begun exploring compliant pathways for its entry into the U.S. market. This is a potential incremental factor for long-term valuation, but currently remains a policy option rather than an operational achievement.
On the chart, HYPE is priced at $74.68, with a 4-hour RSI around 79 and a daily RSI around 77; over 60% of global accounts and large holders are bullish. However, the funding rate is only 0.005%, indicating the market is crowded but extreme leverage costs have not yet appeared. The number of positions has decreased in the past 24 hours, while the value of positions has grown again in the last 4 hours. The funding structure is shifting from short covering to new high-level speculation.
In the next 24–72 hours, the basic operating range is expected to be 72.50–77.00. A break above 75.23 and holding there could see the price test 76.99, with a further extension to 80; if it falls below 71.20, the retracement target shifts to around 69.40.
The trend remains bullish, with the first target price at 80🚀BTC broke through $77,000 on August 21, driving a broad rally in altcoins, with $DOGE, as a high Beta meme coin, rising by 12.9%. However, there is a clear macro uncertainty: the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting will be held from August 22-24. If Powell signals a hawkish stance of "no rush to cut rates," BTC may retest $73,000.
Historical data shows that DOGE's decline during BTC pullbacks is usually 1.8-2.2 times that of BTC — meaning if BTC falls 4%, DOGE could drop 7%-9%. The current 50x long position has a safety margin of about 13.2%. If BTC pulls back due to macro negative factors causing DOGE to drop 10%, this position will directly hit the liquidation line. It is recommended to exit in batches: close 50% today to lock in about 3.2x principal profit; the remaining 50% should have a strict stop loss pushed above the opening price of 0.07505 (i.e., break-even stop loss), ensuring that regardless of macro fluctuations, this trade will not incur a loss.
$ETH $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 🚀 SPCX fell below the $135 IPO price, and the unlocking of 319 million shares has already started to dump the stock
The second round of SpaceX unlocking has landed, with about 319 million shares held by insiders officially entering tradable status.
On August 6, when the first batch of 911.5 million shares was unlocked, short positions were as high as 34%, and the short squeeze actually pushed the stock price up. This time it's different—the short positions have dropped from 34% to 11%, with less ammunition left.
On the day of unlocking, SPCX fell nearly 5%, closing at $132.81, below the $135 IPO price, and intraday it once touched $130.39.
The first batch of unlocking didn’t cause a crash, but that doesn’t mean the second batch won’t. And this is just the beginning—about 700 million shares will unlock in September, and another batch of about 700 million shares in October. The unlocking process will continue in nine phases until 2027.
The core question is: with 319 million shares being dumped, who will buy them? Most shorts have already been driven away, so the short squeeze scenario is unlikely to happen again. After falling below $135, no one knows where the next support level is. 👇
$SPCX
#SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？ Saturday afternoon market check: the line between strength and weakness is now clearly drawn across crypto. BTC is hovering near $72,100, while ETH’s rally has faded into sideways drift. The overall money-making effect is visibly shrinking, and the market is transitioning from broad gains to a sharper, more selective phase. New capital inflows have slowed noticeably. What we’re seeing now is mostly competition for existing liquidity, which explains the widening divergence between coins. The stroCORE has risen for 7 consecutive days, surpassing $0.025. Is this rise simply a rebound, or a trend reversal? If the breakthrough of $0.025 is based on real demand, then the price structure is likely to shift to an upward range. But if this rise is due to short-term speculative capital inflow, then it may just be a retracement of the existing downtrend. This article evaluates CORE's current position through the lens of price structure and supply-demand. - Key fact: CORE has risen for 7 consecutive days, surpassing $0.025. - Structural change: Core DAO will transition to an "era of revenue" starting in 2026. It will switch to a model that uses ecosystem fees to buy and burn CORE, reducing inflation dependency. - On-chain indicators: TVL has surpassed $800 million, and 76% of Bitcoin's hashrate protects this network. The SatPay public beta has launched worldwide, beginning the real test of the BTCFi revenue model. This rise simultaneously reflects two market structure changes.$BOME is clear now, crypto players currently have no interest in high-tech, high-market-cap, high-VC projects because they have experienced FLOKI, PEPE, IRDI, PEOPLE—these low-market-cap grassroots coins that surged dozens of times. So now they are not interested in those high-market-cap VC coins, such as real-world asset tokenization (RWA) or top-tier high-performance L1 general-purpose new public chains. Although these projects are popular, prestigious, and impressive, in the eyes of many players, they are irrelevant to them and more of an institutional game, showing no interest at all. Instead, crypto retail investors, both small and medium-sized, tend to prefer that grassroots culture type of coin that is fair and capable of a breakout.#BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over? $BTC really stunned the shorts these past two days 😂
A few days ago, I was still bearish, thinking that after repeatedly testing $62,000, it might continue downward, but the market directly slapped my face: BTC continuously broke through $70,000, $75,000, and today intraday it once surged to about $76,000. The weekly gain is already close to 20%, it's crazy.
However, I still think this rise cannot be fully understood as the start of a bull market.
The first and strongest driving force was actually a short squeeze. In this round, about $2.75 billion worth of short positions were liquidated. After carefully observing the capital flow, I found that after the short squeeze, a lot of spot funds took over; everyone has been holding on for a long time.
On August 20, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $606 million in a single day, and it has had net inflows for four consecutive days. This means the market did not immediately fall after the short squeeze ended; institutional funds began to take over. Additionally, the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakened, and Trump pushed the CLARITY Act again, with macro and regulatory expectations simultaneously adding fuel to BTC.
Next, I want to see if after this short squeeze ends, the ETF can continue to buy with real money every day, and whether BTC can hold after pulling back to $70,000–$72,000.
If it can hold, the bull market that everyone has been longing for might really be here!!【What ADA might be lacking now is not bullish news, but patience】
From the chip structure perspective, I believe the main cost basis for $ADA is around $0.57.
The original cost might have been close to $0.60, but as the price dropped, large holders did not choose to fully exit; instead, they continued to add positions to lower their average cost. Recently, on-chain data also shows signs of whales accumulating, indicating that some large funds are still willing to keep accumulating chips during the market downturn.
Of course, whale buying does not mean ADA will immediately surge.
Large holders might also be wrong; there could be a long waiting period between accumulation and price increase. But if the main players have truly given up on ADA, they wouldn’t continue to increase exposure during weak periods. Therefore, rather than short-term price fluctuations, I pay more attention to whether chips remain concentrated and whether the market shows support when the price retests key order zones and FVG.
Another indicator to watch is BTC dominance.
Many people see BTC dominance rising and think altcoins are doomed, but I believe this might actually be a normal rotation process in a bull market. Usually, BTC first absorbs market liquidity and breaks out first; after BTC enters a high-level consolidation, funds then start seeking higher returns, gradually rotating into altcoins like $ETH, $ADA, $XRP, and $SOL.The Truth Behind Breaking Through 75,000: After $3 Billion Short Liquidations, Who Is Really Paying for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin shattered months of low-volatility grinding with an extremely violent giant bullish candle.
The market once strongly broke through the historic $75,000 mark, with a staggering nearly $3 billion in liquidations across the entire network within 24 hours, most of which were leveraged short positions blindly taken during the choppy market. Correspondingly, the US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a massive net inflow of over $700 million in a single day, igniting the entire market's bullish sentiment in a very short time.
Is this volume-expanding large bullish candle purely a liquidity harvest and short squeeze in derivatives, or the starting signal of a new major bull market?
To understand the sustainability of this rally, we must dissect the two completely different capital forces driving the market surge.
The first and most direct driver comes from the derivatives market's "mechanical short squeeze and liquidation."
During the long months of wide-range consolidation and slow decline, the network's implied volatility (IV) was once suppressed to historically low levels. Many impatient short-term traders and quant strategies piled up dense short positions above $68,000 to $72,000.
When spot buying power slightly strengthened and prices broke key resistance levels, these short positions instantly became liquidity fuel for the rally.
Market makers were forced to hedge in the spot market, creating a vicious cycle of options Gamma squeeze and forced liquidations on high-leverage contracts. This self-reinforcing short-covering rally is very fast and steep, but its momentum is essentially unsustainable "fuel consumption." Once the short positions are fully cleared, the push from the short squeeze will quickly weaken.
What truly determines whether this rally can hold above $75,000 and continue expanding is the second force—the genuine quality of unleveraged spot capital and ETF institutional buying.
A single-day ETF net inflow exceeding $700 million sends a very positive signal: mainstream off-exchange institutional capital is reopening allocation gates.
However, we must stay clear-headed: we need to distinguish whether this inflow is purely from "long-term unilateral spot allocation" or from hedge funds entering to earn the spot-futures premium through "basis trade" capital. Only if ETFs maintain continuous stable net inflows in the coming weeks, and the on-chain spot cumulative volume difference (CVD) shows sustained growth, will it mean real large off-exchange capital is fully taking over the market.
A deeper shift in chip distribution lies in the psychological reversal of short-term holders (STH) on-chain.
Speculative chips previously deeply trapped between $64,000 and $68,000 have all turned profitable after breaking through $75,000. The heavy "break-even selling pressure" instantly dissipated, and the entire market's on-chain chip resistance zone was significantly cleared.
From a trading strategy perspective, facing such an explosive rally triggered by massive short squeezes, the worst mistake is blindly guessing the top and chasing highs on the left side before a clear top structure appears.
At the same time, chasing above $75,000 must be cautious of a "pullback confirmation consolidation" after the short squeeze momentum fades. A more prudent approach is to hold the base position, closely monitor the continuity of ETF net inflows and spot volume distribution, and patiently wait for the market to pull back and confirm key support levels before dynamically adding positions.
Facing Bitcoin breaking through the $75,000 mark, do you think this rally has just started the main upward wave, or is it a liquidity peak after a short-term short squeeze? Are you choosing to hold your current positions or have you started taking profits in batches?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ On August 21, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL rose together, with about $1 billion worth of short positions liquidated within 24 hours, accounting for 81% of the total network liquidations. SOL's single-day increase was 5.91%, reaching $89.94.
However, the short squeeze momentum has started to weaken since over $1 billion was liquidated in a single hour on August 20—on August 21, SOL short liquidations were $18.27 million versus $4.19 million in longs, with the short-to-long liquidation ratio dropping sharply from a 4-hour peak of 15.9x to 4.32x over 24 hours. The 100x long position opened at 85.84 triggered liquidation after a 6.4% price retracement; the weakening of the short squeeze momentum is precisely a high-risk window for pullbacks. This position should immediately close 70%, and the remaining 30% should move the stop loss up to 88.00, using realized profits to hedge against the vacuum risk of "short liquidations completed, new buying not following through."
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX The recent rise in Bitcoin prices mainly comes from the liquidity brought by the liquidation of a large number of short positions.
The tank is empty.
Now, Bitcoin's price can only grow through normal spot trading.In just a day and a half, Ethereum surged 24%, and Bitcoin also rose 16%. The core reason is still the same — the news and volatility had been suppressed for too long, and when released, it triggered a major market move. Even more astonishing, the liquidation scale this time actually exceeded the big crash on October 10th, with a large number of Bitcoin and Ethereum short positions instantly wiped out. This is the real driving force behind this violent surge.
So, does this mean the bottom is truly in? Honestly, I think this rebound is indeed very impressive, but we still can’t rule out the possibility of testing the bottom again later. I personally entered a long position around 58,000 and have held it for a long time, but I still recommend everyone to be prepared — the coin price might still drop further. The best strategy is always to dollar-cost average in batches, which is what I do myself.
Regarding the technical details of this surge, the daily RSI shot up to the highest level since November 2024, which is the peak level of a bull market. In a bear market, such extreme overbought conditions historically often signal a phase top. On the 30-minute chart, you can also see the price rising while the RSI forms a descending line, which is a classic bearish divergence. I’m not saying it will drop immediately, just reminding everyone — many rush in chasing the rally and end up buying at a phase top, which might later fall back to around 68,000 to 69,000. Be cautious about chasing highs.
There’s also an interesting phenomenon — the price keeps rising, but the funding rate has turned negative, basically indicating that a large number of longs are taking profits and exiting. Open interest is also decreasing simultaneously, and the number of shorts in the market has already surpassed longs. Historically, this kind of structure often means there might be another short squeeze coming, so it’s worth paying attention. Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there’s still a batch of short positions up to 75,000, but overall, the long positions waiting to be liquidated below are clearly more than the shorts above. This asymmetrical structure deserves a closer look.
Another key indicator is the average cost line of short-term holders. In a bear market, once the price breaks above this line, historically it’s often a good opportunity to short because you’re trading above the cost line. In 2018, 2022, and before the FTX crash, every time the price surged above this line, there was a good shorting window. Now the price is clearly above this line, which could mean two things: either the bear market bottom is really near, or this is a huge trap with another drop waiting ahead. I won’t act immediately just because of this signal; history tells us that every major turning point gives enough time to react, so there’s no need to rush. Waiting for more confirmation signals is safer.
I will focus on this week’s and this month’s closing prices. The price is currently testing the previous ETF consolidation phase’s range high, which is a critical level. Also, Ethereum has clearly outperformed Bitcoin recently, with loss-making positions still outnumbering profitable ones. Historically, this kind of signal is often a good window to pay attention to, and I still believe it’s suitable to steadily dollar-cost average into Ethereum now. Whether this surge really marks the bottom is still uncertain; I personally want to wait a bit longer, especially if the funding rate can remain negative for the next 48 hours, there might still be room for another push up. That’s all for today. If you found this useful, remember to like and follow.$BTC has broken through again! Brothers, 77,000 is already underfoot, now directly approaching 78,000. But at this position, I really dare not enter, I even want to reduce my position!
At 15:34 today, it officially broke 76,000, up +5% intraday, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the last 5 trading days, reaching a new high since 5/27. The most critical thing is that it decisively stood above 68,700, a level that suppressed BTC's rebound for a full three months. Short-Term Holder cost base is 68,700, Median Realised is 63,000, both now underfoot, and the trend structure has flipped from "consolidation" to "breakout." But is this a short squeeze or a real breakout?
RSI has already reached 77–83, clearly in the overbought zone. More importantly, the "fees are not overheated yet" that I mentioned this morning has been broken; MEXC fees are now +0.0084%, F&G 70 has entered greed, and leverage is truly back. 24-hour short liquidations are 2.7–3 billion dollars, the largest single-day short squeeze in nearly two years, with whale 0x8c96 having a BTC short position liquidated for 96.39 million. The bullets for the short squeeze are spent, leverage is connected, and next it all depends on whether ETFs and spot can take over.
The breakout is real, but 77,000 is an extension level; directly rushing above 80,000 is prone to RSI bearish divergence.Jimothy surged 50% in a single day, and the top 40 token holders did not make large purchases. Are they whales or market makers? What are you hiding?
Data changes of the top 40 Jimothy holders on 2026.8.21
1: PUMP total inflow 9.38%!
MEXC total inflow 31.19%
2: Top 10 addresses: 3 increased positions, 2 decreased positions
Top 20 addresses: 2 decreased positions, 5 increased positions, 1 new entry
Top 40 addresses: 5 new entries, 1 increased position, 2 decreased positions
$Jimothy Daily Key Summary:
Today, I noticed Jimothy surged 50% in a single day, so I took a closer look at Jimothy's data and felt it necessary to compile and organize it. I found the structure of the top 40 holders to be quite chaotic, with a complex mix of increases and decreases in positions. A simple analysis shows that 6 addresses newly entered the top 40, but upon closer inspection, these addresses did not enter the top 40 by new purchases; only 1-2 addresses slightly increased their positions to enter the top 40, while the rest entered due to rollover or transfers. These 6 can be ignored. Among the others, 9 increased their positions. Although it seems many increased, the actual amount added is not large. Meanwhile, 6 decreased their positions, but the actual amount reduced is also not significant. Essentially, the increases and decreases in holdings nearly balance out, which raises some questions here BTC surged to around $77,000, and this time it's not just about short liquidations.
Two days ago, BTC was still around $64,100.
Now the latest price has reached 76.8K–77.1K, a 24-hour increase of about 6%–7%, nearly a 20% rise in just two days.
The first half of the rise is easy to explain:
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakened, risk appetite rebounded, and on top of that, large-scale shorts were forced to cover.
In the past two days, short liquidations in the crypto market have exceeded $4 billion.
But now the most important change has appeared:
Real spot money is starting to take over.
On August 20, the U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw a net inflow of about $606 million, higher than the previous day's approximately $517 million, accelerating inflows for two consecutive days.
This indicates the market is shifting from:
Shorts being forced to buy back
to:
Institutions actively chasing the rally.
What really needs to be watched now is not "how high BTC can go," but whether the breakout zone of 75K–75.5K can hold.
**If it holds above 75.5K:** the breakout remains valid, and after taking 77K, the market will continue to look for higher levels.
**If it falls back below 75K:** it means the pace of the rise is exceeding the real capital's capacity to support it.
The most noteworthy change in this BTC rally is not the price rising from 64K to 77K.
But rather:
Those forced to buy have not fully exited, and active buying money has already started coming in.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC 🔥【What is really driving this BTC surge?】 The recent rise in BTC over the past two days appears on the surface as a "sudden bull run in the crypto market," but breaking it down, it’s actually several capital logics resonating simultaneously. First, the most important factor is the U.S. Treasury increasing the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks from about $2 billion to $4 billion. The market interprets this as a signal of improved bond market liquidity, easing pressure on long-term Treasury yields, improving dollar liquidity expectations, and benefiting scarce assets like BTC and gold simultaneously. (Reuters) Second, institutional funds are returning. On August 20, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $606 million, with net inflows for four consecutive days, marking the largest single-day inflow since May. This signal is more important than just contract-driven price pulls: it indicates spot funds are actively buying BTC again. (CryptoRank) Third, this is a typical "short squeeze" scenario. After BTC broke through key resistance, a large number of shorts stopped out, liquidated, and were forced to cover, creating additional buying pressure that further amplified the rally. The previously accumulated large short positions in the market actually became fuel for the rise. (Investor’s Business Daily) Fourth, the technical structure has changed. BTC has reclaimed $70,000 and continues to break through $75,000, meaning the previous resistance zone is starting to convert into support. The market has now gradually moved from an "oversold rebound" phase into a "trend reversal confirmation" phase. But it’s important to note here: the pace of the rise has been very fast, and there is short-term profit-taking pressure X Layer TVL surpasses 100 million, OKB transforms from platform token to public chain Gas!
$OKB's L2 X Layer TVL has exceeded 100 million, with on-chain stablecoin supply over 2 billion. Circle native USDC and CCTP are now live, and both Uniswap and Aave have been deployed.
Last week, using USDC on X Layer for yield, gas fee was $0.0005 per transaction, 5000 TPS with 1-second block time, the experience is much better than Ethereum mainnet.
Transmission logic: Exchange L2 competes for "compliant dollar" settlement layer → native USDC locks liquidity → OKB as Gas token has real consumption demand. After ICE (NYSE parent company) invested in OKX in June, ICE CEO also attended Trump's crypto summit, compliance is accelerating.
Conclusion: Mid-term bullish. $OKB 100-105 is the left-side position. TVL breaking $200 million is a signal to add positions. X Layer ecosystem expansion = OKB demand expansion
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 🚀 New developments may boost liquidity in the Bitcoin market
Markets are witnessing notable developments as the U.S. Treasury Department moves toward increasing long-term Treasury bond buybacks, with amounts potentially reaching $4 billion per operation.
This move could impact liquidity levels in the markets and increase investor interest in digital assets.
📊 With continued positive forecasts, attention turns to Bitcoin's future, with expectations of reaching $100,000 and $500,000 levels in the long term.
⚠️ This is an analysis and perspective, not investment advice.Limit order 4580 short, stop loss 87, target around 4570 and 4550! $XAU #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
This round of BTC's strong acceleration and breakout has completely ignited bullish market sentiment, but this surge is driven by a combination of expectations, short squeeze, and capital inflow—not a full bull market transition. Whether it can sustain depends mainly on the strength of subsequent capital relay.
The core logic behind this rally is clear: U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, easing macro liquidity pressure in the short term, which loosens restrictions on risk assets; combined with continuous inflows into spot ETFs, institutional real money is re-entering the market, supporting the bottom. Meanwhile, after breaking key resistance levels, a large number of short positions have been liquidated in a chain reaction, causing a short squeeze that further amplifies the rally and accelerates the uptrend.
But to be honest: short squeeze rallies tend to be short-lived.
The biggest risk now is that most of the rise relies on forced liquidation buying rather than sustained incremental active capital. Once the short positions are fully cleared and short-term profit-taking occurs, if ETF inflows cannot keep pace, the market may face a high-level pullback and consolidation at any time.
There are two possible scenarios going forward:
First, successful capital relay. Continuous net inflows into ETFs and price stabilization at high levels could extend this rebound and challenge higher resistance zones.
Second, volume gap and pullback. Slowing or reversing capital inflows, overbought indicators correcting, and the market entering a volatile correction phase to digest the short-term surge in sentiment.
Currently, macro uncertainties remain; the Federal Reserve's rate hike disagreements have not been fully resolved, and bearish risks are only temporarily dormant, not gone.
In practice, do not chase highs or greed for tops. Positions can be taken off in batches, and wait patiently for pullbacks and stabilization if out of the market. This acceleration is a sentiment-driven rally, not a reckless one-sided bull market.The long-term logic of OKB is fixed supply, X Layer Gas, and ecological staking demand.
If you build a position based on this logic but hold it with 20x perpetual contracts, it is a "long-term view paired with a short-term tool," and a single spike could prematurely force the correct judgment to exit.Bitcoin's sudden surge is not driven by a single piece of news, but by three forces working together:
1️⃣ Shorts are being squeezed and forced to cover
In the past few months, Bitcoin dropped from $126,000 to $58,000, with every rebound basically pushed back down. During the decline, the market collectively shorted on rallies, and short positions have been heavily crowded. Once the price breaks upward, short liquidations force buying, creating a "rise → liquidation → further rise" cycle that directly propels the market.
2️⃣ U.S. Treasury injects liquidity
Starting September 9, the long-term Treasury repo limit was raised from $2 billion to $4 billion, suppressing U.S. bond yields and weakening the dollar. Once liquidity loosens, risk asset valuations begin to recover.
3️⃣ U.S. crypto policy sentiment is highly positive
Trump met with executives from multiple crypto companies, expressing intentions to make the U.S. a global digital asset hub and mentioning consideration of government increasing Bitcoin holdings. Regulatory friendliness expectations have directly ignited market sentiment.
However, signals are just signals; actual legislation and policies still need to be implemented. Emotion-driven market fluctuations will be especially volatile, so be cautious of risks.
$BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ China's proposed "Secondary Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Vehicle Drive Solid-State Battery Application Guide, Test Items and Conditions" has recently been successfully established as a project by the International Electrotechnical Commission. According to public information, this is the world's first international standard project in the field of solid-state batteries. The impact is not limited to laboratories. Automakers, battery manufacturers, material suppliers, and testing institutions will all need to more clearly answer the same set of questions in the future: how to define solid-state batteries, what to test, under what conditions to test, and how to compare the results. The most important point for ordinary readers to distinguish now is: this is a "project establishment," not a standard that has already been published and implemented, much less a breakthrough in mass production of solid-state batteries. It means the formal start of international standard development, with subsequent stages including drafting, discussion, voting, approval, and publication. [What is first resolved this time is "what measure to use"] Solid-state batteries are very popular. Some talk about safety, some about energy density, some about lifespan and fast charging. The problem is, if testing conditions differ, the same number may lose comparability: laboratory samples and actual applications are not the same, and different temperatures, cycling methods, and test items may also yield different results. The role of the standard is not to endorse a particular product, but to try to let everyone discuss under the same set of language and conditions. The application guide answers how it enters practical scenarios, the test items clarify what must be checked, and the test conditions constrain the environment under which results are obtained. This is like unifying the scale in the market first. The scale itself will not suddenly make the product better, but it can reduce conflicting claims and make performance, safety, and lifespan easier to verify. Therefore, this #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
#财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, which business line do you favor more?
Regarding the safety cushion, I have to be objective—Xiaomi is not short of money, which is the bulls' strong confidence.
Market page: Cash and equivalents 37.25 billion + time deposits 128.18 billion, borrowings only 39.3 billion. Net cash is substantial, no short-term liquidity risk, able to continue supporting investments in automobiles and AI.
But this is precisely why I am bearish in the mid-term: more money = more burn, burning on loss-making automobiles and AI with zero monetization, so the profit statement won't improve in the short term. The safety cushion ensures "not dying," not "making money immediately."
Today’s rise is a rise, but the profitability inflection point hasn't arrived; I keep my short positions unchanged.
$XIAOMI Funding situation: $4 billion liquidations, shorts crushed
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $4 billion, with shorts accounting for about $3.7 billion, marking the most severe short squeeze since 2021.
Bitcoin single-coin liquidations were about $461 million, Ethereum liquidations about $176 million, with over 127,000 people liquidated. The short liquidations created a positive feedback loop: BTC price rises → shorts liquidated → forced buying → price rises further. This is the micro mechanism behind this round of short squeeze.
ETF funding: Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $606 million, marking four consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock IBIT had a single-day inflow of $503 million.
Key warning: After the $841 million liquidation wave, the easiest profits in the short squeeze rally may have passed. The next phase requires real spot demand to replace forced buying. If prices stagnate while leverage rebuilds rapidly, it could trigger liquidation risks on the other side. $BTC $ETH $CORE #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ ⚠️The market analysis is for learning purposes only and does not constitute investment advice
AEON Transaction Details Interpretation
Current price: 0.07228
Focus on the repeatedly appearing fixed batch size: 12.05K, appearing repeatedly with both buy and sell orders, this is scripted programmatic order placement.
## Breakdown of Market Phenomena
1. 12.05K batch size:
• Occasionally placing large active buy orders below, briefly supporting the price;
• Then turning into active sell orders to push the price down;
This is not real retail investors, but project/market-making bots.
Purpose: To create the illusion of large funds absorbing orders, giving the impression of strong buy support below.
2. Market behavior:
Batches of buy orders are placed to briefly push the price up;
Immediately followed by sell orders of the same size to crush the rebound.
As mentioned before: single pulse price support without buy-side follow-through, this is a protective measure during a downtrend, not a reversal or bottom formation.
## Cross-checking the Four Bottom Conditions
1. Declining downward momentum: ❌ Scripted support, but selling pressure has not truly disappeared, bots are doing two-way wash trading, no exhaustion of bears;
2. Support stabilization: ❌ Continually making new lows, no consecutive candles holding support;
3. Volume surge with bullish candles: ❌ Just bot pulses on the order book, no confirmed bullish candle on the chart;
4. Sustained buy-side dominance: ❌ Both buyers and sellers are bots, not real bulls entering.
Key distinction:
✅ True bottom: retail investors + real capital continuously absorbing sell orders, bots gradually exit.
❌ Current AEON: market-making scripts are wash trading back and forth to support the price, delaying the decline, not indicating the end of the drop. After the support force is exhausted, the price will continue to fall.
### Key price levels unchanged
Lifeline reference: 0.07023
Short-term resistance: 0.07470
Only if the 15-minute closing price holds above 0.07470 can a recovery be considered;
A valid break below 0.07023 will open a new downward space.
## Practical Reminder
• Positioning: Do not mistake this bot-supported rebound for a reversal; if the rebound lacks strength, be cautious;
🈳Let's talk about why BTC has surged recently?
This BTC surge is heavily catalyzed by U.S. Treasury bonds.
But it's not a simple "U.S. bonds fall → BTC rises" scenario. The real logic is:
The U.S. Treasury starts actively repurchasing long-term bonds → expectations of declining long-term U.S. Treasury yields → weaker dollar → marginal easing of financial conditions → non-sovereign assets like BTC/gold get repriced.
This logic has already been directly traded by the market in the past few days.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced increasing the scale of long-term bond repurchases from about $2 billion each time to $4 billion. After the news, long-term U.S. Treasury yields briefly dropped about 10 basis points, the dollar weakened, and BTC and gold rose simultaneously.
The Treasury's sudden increase in long-term bond repurchases essentially sends a signal to the market:
The U.S. government does not want long-term interest rates to continue spiraling out of control.
So the market started trading "long-term rates peaking/financial conditions improving."
More importantly: the dollar is also falling.
This, in my view, is a more crucial part of this BTC rally.
Currently, the dollar index has dropped to around 98.7, hitting a three-month low.
So now we actually see a very typical combination:
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields ↓ + DXY ↓ + BTC ↑ + Gold ↑
This is much more significant than BTC rising on its own.
Because it shows the market is trading not just an ordinary crypto narrative.I reviewed the 207 coins on Binance Alpha that have no spot trading, only USDT perpetual contracts. Only 49 of them have more bullish sentiment from whales than retail investors, while 86 are inverted, nearly twice as many. Simply put, the current bullish wave is mainly being supported by retail investors.
Looking at the prices, out of 204 coins, 22 have dropped more than 70% from their 90-day highs, with a median drawdown of -42%. Despite such declines, many are still bullish, which doesn't look like a bottom to me. The total sector holdings amount to only $1358M, the market is too thin, and the on-chain liquidity is so low that any small trade can move the price.
I lean bearish on this structure. Retail investors holding long positions while whales are not stepping in—this combination won't hold for long. This morning, my direction was that $BTC wouldn't hold above 75,000 in the short term and would pull back. Now it's at 77,112, having reached a high of 77,275. I misread the direction. I had two bases at the time: first, the open interest growth couldn't keep up with the price, indicating that the price push wasn't driven by new funds; second, the RSI was extremely overbought. Looking back now, the first basis still holds: open interest only increased by 3.62% during the same period, while the price rose by 8.26%, less than half the growth rate; the funding rate is 0.0098%, and longs still hardly pay any premium. So the data didn't betray me; I just misinterpreted it by equating "no leverage entering the market" directly with "price can't rise." But spot buying alone can push the price up without contract support, and the lack of accumulated leverage actually means shorts can't find liquidation positions to attack, so the resistance to pushing down is much greater than I thought. The second point is more direct: RSI went from 94 to 97.8, and in a strong trend, this indicator can remain dulled for a long time, so using it alone to call a top is untenable. After correction, I'm watching the 78,067 level; only if it breaks above can we talk about the next phase.To be honest, compared to the previous “bull frenzy” rhythm, there are some similarities, but the core is really different. 🚀 Similarities: The script is still the same script. The technical structure of this rally and the short squeeze are indeed very similar to history. · The cycle pattern is repeating: after bottoming in 2017, a parabolic rally; the same structure in 2021; now in 2026 it’s replaying again. Analyst Crypto Patel points out that BTC creates higher highs after every major correction, “the script has never failed.” · Short squeeze triggers the rally: On August 19, about $2.97 billion was liquidated in a single day, with shorts accounting for $2.73 billion. Shorts were forced to cover, causing a stampede-style rally. · Macro liquidity expectations: The US Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion each time, weakening the dollar and sparking a collective risk asset rally. ⚠️ Differences: This time it’s more “heavy” and also “slow” · ETF institutions lead, no longer retail FOMO: Previous bull markets relied on retail rush; now institutions enter through ETFs. The rise is steady but slow, lacking that full-market frenzy vibe. · The four-year cycle rule is failing: According to the “traditional cycle theory,” after the halving in April 2024, the peak should be reached between the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 ($150,000–$200,000), but by May 2026 it’s still hovering around $70,000. Grayscale also believes the traditional four-year cycle theory may be failing. · Market desensitized to bearish news: New Fire Research Institute points out that the current driving force comes from endogenous improvement in capital structure. CLAR