Cato_KT
推特小博主，同步分享内容，宏观/地缘分析，偶然做趋势交易，不带单，没啥实力，看看就好！ Fake it till you make it 得知我命 失之我幸 念头通达 余生坦荡 一位深爱土地的老农，低头耕耘，静待收成；不空想，不妄求，只相信时间与汗水。
3Following
662followers
Feed
Feed
Pinned
Global Macro Guidance for August 17–23:
The data has already provided the answer; the U.S. economy is shifting from "anti-inflation" to "stall prevention," which needs to be verified this week. The minutes of the July rate-setting meeting reflecting future Fed expectations will be a key focus. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks and continue to be implicit key risks!
Global Macro Guidance for August 17–23: The data has already provided the answer; the U.S. economy has shifted from "anti-inflation" to "stall prevention." This week requires verification, with the July FOMC meeting minutes feedback on the Fed's future expectations becoming the focus. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks and continue to be latent key risks! The macro environment this week is not optimistic. Market anchors are mainly energy and inflation expectations, while the U.S. economy has already moved from anti-inflation expectations to the dangerous edge of stall prevention. If the already fragile economic expectations for energy rebound, beware of rising "stagflation" expectations. The biggest macro change this week is the shift from macro data to policy interpretation and verification. Last week, our macro data provided three answers: Has inflation spiraled out of control again? Temporarily, no. Has U.S. demand weakened? Yes, and significantly more than market expectations. Is the soft landing expectation valid? The short-term soft landing expectation has been shaken. This week, the data interpretation and verification aim to answer three questions: How hawkish was the July Fed meeting minutes? Is the Fed alert to the risk of economic stall? How does the Fed view the risks of inflation and economic stall? Is the U.S. consumer economy experiencing a short-term stall or an expansion of systemic risk? Are crude oil and Japan reintroducing overall inflation or even U.S. stagflation expectations, as well as liquidity risks!? First, the Fed meeting minutes: How hawkish was July? What were the hawkish focuses? Did it interpret employment risks? Did it anticipate economic stall risks in advance? There are no scheduled Fed official speeches this week, and Wash has no speaking agenda, which means that in the face of last week's data, the market cannot promptly obtain Fed officials'...
Is Trump going to "issue a coin" again? Don't rush to understand it as a second $TRUMP
Currently, the Token promoted by Trump's media is not a cryptocurrency issued for secondary market trading, but a reward Token.
Simply put, Trump is trying to use blockchain technology to move the traditional shareholder reward mechanism onto the chain. The core of the Token is not trading but rewards.
According to the currently disclosed public information, free trading is not explicitly open, it is uncertain whether it will be listed on centralized/decentralized exchanges, and it is uncertain whether a public secondary market will be established. There is also no evidence proving it will become a second TRUMP.
This token means that shareholder equity certificates are being put on-chain, which opens up imaginative space for blockchain technology. As for the follow-up, attention can be paid to whether this token is transferable, tradable, or listed on exchanges.
Another point is that the "Clear Act" targets whether the Trump family has generated huge conflicts through crypto profits. If Trump wants to promote the "Clear Act," issuing a coin now would be self-contradictory. Moreover, facing the midterm elections, issuing a coin would give opponents an opportunity for "political attacks"! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Bitocin is just one step away from the previous high of 82,600, so don't let it fall back directly, or it will seriously affect the confidence of holders.
Facing this rebound, many people sell chips along with the rebound. If this rebound does not break the previous high, the subsequent trend expectations are indeed quite bleak.
On the contrary, once a new high is broken, the confidence to buy during the next pullback will greatly increase.
Don't underestimate market confidence, because confidence often equals consensus! $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
Cato_KT
Is the current macro environment good or not? The market has given the answer.
High interest rates + high inflation expectations + high oil prices + weakening consumption + initial signs of stagflation expectations + bond market risks. Facing this macro environment, I don't really believe #Bitcoin can truly start a new trend against the adverse macro environment and the US stock market's countertrend.
The unique positive factors for crypto, after continuous fermentation from last night to today, how much momentum is left? This is the most important issue #BTC should focus on right now. Losing industry tailwinds, how long can BTC's price rise still be sustained? This is the reality we have to face.
Of course, besides the macro environment and industry tailwinds, more attention should be paid to the data factors driving the price, namely ETF and crypto capital net inflows. On the 19th, ETF net inflows hit the highest data in 3 months. Looking ahead to next week, we need to watch whether ETFs can maintain stable net inflows or gradually decline until returning to net outflows. The logic for mainstream crypto funds USDT/USDC is the same.
As for the market, the most optimistic scenario currently is to test around 74,200 this week. The upcoming macro uncertainties are still quite high. Next week there are Nvidia earnings + core PCE, obviously the current "policy-driven market" in crypto may not be able to hold up! #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
Tonight's August PMI data is quite interesting. Originally, this data wasn't heavily weighted, but at this moment it has temporarily changed the macro outlook.
Before the data release, the macro side was expecting economic stagflation. Although stagflation hadn't been priced into the economy yet, there was already some caution. After the PMI data was released, while manufacturing data remained weak, the core services PMI exceeded expectations.
This data has temporarily altered the current expectation of economic weakening, boosting economic confidence, but it also brings another issue — the unexpected strength in the service sector increases confidence in economic growth but also raises more inflation concerns.
In simple terms, tonight's PMI allows the macro market to temporarily escape the possibility of stagflation and recession, but it also brings inflation worries back to the forefront. CME shows the probability of a rate hike in September has returned to 40.4%.
It is important to note that the strength in the services PMI only indicates that the business side remains strong; the risk of weakening consumer demand cannot be completely ruled out. Next week, the macro data side will still face the test of core PCE, so risks are not fully resolved yet! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
Summary and analysis of the latest US-Iran developments on August 21:
Summary and analysis of the latest US-Iran developments on August 21: 1. The US has announced a new round of sanctions next week targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon and its financial networks related to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force. It should be noted that these sanctions complement those against Iran, clearly indicating the US's attempt to impose comprehensive economic sanctions on all Iranian forces in the Middle East. 2. The Houthi forces have once again attacked Saudi energy facilities, seen as a spillover of US-Iran geopolitical risks. 3. The latest Kpler data shows that on Thursday only 7 trackable commodity ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, half the 14 ships on Wednesday; among them, 4 entered the Persian Gulf and 3 exited, with no VLCC large tankers. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 4. Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf officially responded to the US economic blockade by strengthening economic integration between Iran and Iraq and reducing dependence on the US dollar, demonstrating determination for economic resistance. 5. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that Iran's military is prepared to respond to US sanctions on land, sea, air, and cyber fronts, meaning that besides the IRGC, the regular Iranian army is also showing a tough military stance, responding to economic sanctions with military threats. 6. The Iranian President stated that given Iran's current strong position, the war should end. I believe the key point is that the Iranian President is politically laying the groundwork for ending the war. Reviewing previous statements: the Iranian President emphasized that the previous agreement with the US was not a portrait → emphasized that Iran has already achieved victory → emphasized that Iran is now in a position of strength and dignity → proposed that the war should end. This is a complete political set.
Currently, this market is still somewhat of a "torn" kind of madness! Gold and #Bitcoin are rising in sync!
What is the reason to buy gold?
It is the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, concerns about fiscal credit crises triggered by bond market risks, and the stagflation expectation of high inflation accompanied by weakening consumption.
Simply put, buying gold is to prevent risks in the U.S. economy; rate cuts cannot avoid financial risks.
But what is the logic supporting buying #BTC?
At present, I only see the sentiment guidance brought by the White House crypto meeting on the 19th, and the continuous amplified inflow of ETF and crypto funds!
Perhaps the market is already voting with money, but from my perspective, BTC is a high Beta asset. If the macro environment suppresses optimistic risk asset preferences overall, how long can $BTC resist? #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
Cato_KT
Since the data temporarily validates the price increase of #Bitcoin, where to look when returning to the market? The price still shows strong momentum after breaking through 74,200,
Since the data temporarily validates the price increase of #Bitcoin, where should we look back on the market? After the price broke through 74,200, it still maintained strong momentum. Continuing yesterday's ETF and net capital inflow again broke a three-month high, so the upward potential needs to keep opening. 74,200 is the first resistance of the Fibonacci rebound from the bottom range; a rebound to this point is a weak rebound. Around 84,000 is a completion of a regular rebound, and around 92,000 is a strong rebound. Referring to this logic, combined with the current sufficient data momentum, the next key point is to watch the situation around 84,000, especially focusing on whether this rebound can break through the previous daily high near 82,600. Whether it can break a new high indicates different subsequent judgment logic: a) If the rebound breaks a new high, reaching 84,000 to complete a regular rebound, BTC has effectively completed bottoming out, moving out of the weak zone. The probability of a subsequent drop back to 58,000–60,000 is small, and the bottom range bottoming is likely completed. After the next correction, it will be the opportunity to start a new trend. b) If the rebound does not break a new high and stops in the 80,000–82,000 range, caution is needed for whether the next correction will break a new low. Referring to the previous daily trend, it is necessary to carefully verify whether a new low is broken and whether the bottom range bottoming is completed. Whether a new trend starts later depends on whether effective bottoming is achieved. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Honestly, from a macro perspective and the risk market perspective represented by the US stock market, $B
Since the data temporarily validates the price increase of #Bitcoin, where to look when returning to the market? The price still shows strong momentum after breaking through 74,200,
Since the data temporarily validates the price increase of #Bitcoin, where should we look back on the market? After the price broke through 74,200, it still maintained strong momentum. Continuing yesterday's ETF and net capital inflow again broke a three-month high, so the upward potential needs to keep opening. 74,200 is the first resistance of the Fibonacci rebound from the bottom range; a rebound to this point is a weak rebound. Around 84,000 is a completion of a regular rebound, and around 92,000 is a strong rebound. Referring to this logic, combined with the current sufficient data momentum, the next key point is to watch the situation around 84,000, especially focusing on whether this rebound can break through the previous daily high near 82,600. Whether it can break a new high indicates different subsequent judgment logic: a) If the rebound breaks a new high, reaching 84,000 to complete a regular rebound, BTC has effectively completed bottoming out, moving out of the weak zone. The probability of a subsequent drop back to 58,000–60,000 is small, and the bottom range bottoming is likely completed. After the next correction, it will be the opportunity to start a new trend. b) If the rebound does not break a new high and stops in the 80,000–82,000 range, caution is needed for whether the next correction will break a new low. Referring to the previous daily trend, it is necessary to carefully verify whether a new low is broken and whether the bottom range bottoming is completed. Whether a new trend starts later depends on whether effective bottoming is achieved. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Honestly, from a macro perspective and the risk market perspective represented by the US stock market, $B
Yesterday we mentioned that besides focusing on the macro side and policy-driven benefits, the upcoming rise in #Bitcoin should be more about the data, especially BTC's ETFs and mainstream capital in the crypto market
Yesterday we mentioned that besides focusing on the macro side and policy-driven benefits for #Bitcoin, the upcoming rise should be more data-driven, especially BTC's ETF and mainstream funds in the crypto market. On August 20, BTC ETF net inflow was 606.3 million, higher than 517 million on August 19. The ETF net inflow exceeded the previous day, setting a new three-month high record, clearly showing that buying sentiment remains strong. August 20 crypto market data: 1. Market cap increase is still concentrated in #BTC and #ETH, with their share rising, while altcoins' share is compressed. Market optimism has not further spread, mainly due to poor altcoin narratives. 2. Trading volume is flat compared to yesterday, concentrated in $BTC and ETH, with trading activity continuing. 3. Total net capital inflow is 700 million, including USDC net inflow of 632 million and USDT net inflow of 54 million. Compared to yesterday, net inflows are focused on mainstream funds, which is positive. Summary of today's data: Combining ETF and crypto market data, the current trend can no longer be judged simply as short-covering. Although the macro environment is unfavorable and policy uncertainty remains high, market sentiment is still willing to pay for it, which is important. Next, watch the ETF data released tomorrow. If net inflows continue to be 300-500 million, and crypto market trading volume and net capital inflows remain steady, it indicates that data further validates the price and will become the main driver for short-term price stabilization. From the crypto data side, the main driving force comes from US-based funds.
The U.S. pressure on Iran's economy is entering the execution prelude, with China directly named. Behind the threat of secondary tariff sanctions is Trump's desire to coerce China into helping mediate with Iran.
According to Bassett's statement, the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran will have specific measures announced next Monday. This is clearly combined with a maritime blockade to further economically isolate Iran, aiming to pressure the Iranian regime from within.
On the other hand, Bassett directly named China, noting that half of China's energy comes from the Gulf, and China also purchases a large amount of maritime oil from Iran.
When asked whether the U.S. would target China due to China-Iran trade relations, Bassett did not deny it, which effectively increases the possibility of secondary trade sanctions on Iranian oil.
Of course, with less than a month before the Chinese leader's visit to the U.S., I don't quite believe the U.S. will directly impose secondary sanctions on Chinese Iranian oil. Bassett's attitude makes me feel more that he wants to coerce China into helping the U.S. mediate the U.S.-Iran issue. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升
Cato_KT
Summary and analysis of the latest US-Iran developments on August 20: Trump repeatedly emphasized economic sanctions, highlighting his reluctance to go all in. The US is currently in a passive stage!
August 20th US-Iran latest developments summary and analysis: Trump repeatedly emphasized economic sanctions, showing his reluctance to go all in; the US is currently in a passive stage! 1. According to Axios, the US has established a secret channel in the Strait of Hormuz to assist empty oil tankers entering the Persian Gulf to load oil. This mechanism currently enables an output of 10 million barrels per day. The US is trying to ease pressure on the energy market by releasing this information. #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 2. Trump announced an unprecedented economic war and isolation against Iran, applying pressure through economic sanctions in an attempt to force Tehran back to negotiations. 3. Iran's foreign minister responded, stating that Iran has not closed the negotiation window, but negotiations do not represent capitulation. 4. The latest Kpler data shows that on Wednesday only 9 trackable commercial vessels passed through the strait, the same as Tuesday; the Mandeb Strait decreased from 32 vessels to 27, clearly indicating that strait transportation remains in an unfavorable situation. 5. Oman and Japan simultaneously emphasized the need to push for a final agreement to ease regional tensions, meaning the final agreement on the strait between Oman and Iran remains unresolved. Summary of this phase: From the current situation, it can be seen that Trump has recently continuously hinted at economic sanctions on Iran but has not reiterated military strikes. Diplomatic pressure has relatively softened, and I believe this means Trump, approaching the midterm elections, does not dare to let the war reignite. US media, through anonymous officials, released information about the US secret channel in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to make the market believe that Hormuz
#SPCX lock-up period has ended, unfortunately accompanied by increased macroeconomic uncertainties, causing overall pressure on the US stock market and stock prices to fall accordingly.
The next lock-up dates are around September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24. If the macro environment improves before the new lock-up date on September 9, it could be a good opportunity to buy a wave of $SPCX
More importantly, after the US stock index correction under macroeconomic pressure, SPCX may enter an undervalued phase. Once the macro environment improves, the rebound strength should be significant! #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Is the current macro environment good or not? The market has given the answer.
High interest rates + high inflation expectations + high oil prices + weakening consumption + initial signs of stagflation expectations + bond market risks. Facing this macro environment, I don't really believe #Bitcoin can truly start a new trend against the adverse macro environment and the US stock market's countertrend.
The unique positive factors for crypto, after continuous fermentation from last night to today, how much momentum is left? This is the most important issue #BTC should focus on right now. Losing industry tailwinds, how long can BTC's price rise still be sustained? This is the reality we have to face.
Of course, besides the macro environment and industry tailwinds, more attention should be paid to the data factors driving the price, namely ETF and crypto capital net inflows. On the 19th, ETF net inflows hit the highest data in 3 months. Looking ahead to next week, we need to watch whether ETFs can maintain stable net inflows or gradually decline until returning to net outflows. The logic for mainstream crypto funds USDT/USDC is the same.
As for the market, the most optimistic scenario currently is to test around 74,200 this week. The upcoming macro uncertainties are still quite high. Next week there are Nvidia earnings + core PCE, obviously the current "policy-driven market" in crypto may not be able to hold up! #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
Cato_KT
Of course, besides the macro and policy-driven positive sentiment, #Bitcoin's rise also requires certain data support, with the most critical being the net inflow of ETFs and the situation of mainstream crypto funds.
On the U.S. trading day of August 19, BTC ETF had a single-day net inflow of $517.2 million, marking the third consecutive net inflow this week and the largest single-day net inflow in nearly three months.
Most importantly, this ETF net inflow was not solely concentrated in IBIT; 45% of the net inflow came from other ETF providers. Clearly, the macro and policy benefits have short-term stimulated an increase in broad buying sentiment.
Regarding crypto market data, a comparison was made between August 18 and current data:
1. In terms of short-term market cap growth, aside from #BTC, the largest increase was in #ETH, indicating that bullish optimism is gradually spreading.
2. Overall trading volume doubled, with BTC increasing 2.5 times and ETH increasing 5 times, showing a sharp surge in ETH's short-term trading volume.
3. In terms of funds, the total market capital net inflow increased by $1.1 billion, but the main funds came from a $436 million net inflow provided by USDC; USDT did not show a significant net inflow.
Overall, the crypto market data looks optimistic, with expanding positive sentiment, increased trading volume, capital returning to the U.S. market, and ETF data corroborating each other. Data is one of the main factors further validating and supporting the price increase.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？