The BTC rebound this week can no longer be simply understood as a "bounce after a big drop." On Friday, it once surged to around $79,000, with a weekly increase of over 20%. More importantly, capital has started to flow back: the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.6 billion this week, including a single-day inflow of over $517 million on August 20, and the latest daily data released on August 21 reached about $606 million, marking consecutive days of net inflows. This indicates an important change: this time, it's not just retail investors chasing the rally; institutional funds have also started buying again. Moreover, several catalysts have appeared simultaneously in this rally: the US Treasury expanded long-term US Treasury repurchases, triggering market expectations of improved liquidity; Trump continues to push for crypto regulatory legislation; meanwhile, a large number of shorts have been forced to cover, further amplifying BTC's rise. So the real question now is no longer: "Can BTC still rise?" but rather: "Can this capital inflow sustain?" I think we need to be a bit cautious here. Continuous ETF inflows are certainly good, but if capital inflows start to decline significantly while BTC continues to rise rapidly, it means the price may be running ahead of the funds. Conversely, if ETF net inflows continue in the coming weeks and BTC can stabilize above $70,000–$75,000, then the nature of this rally may truly change. A price breakout only proves strong buying pressure. Sustained capital inflows prove the rally's sustainability. So what I am most focused on now is not

#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 This wave of gold price increase is starting to feel a bit different. On August 21, spot gold briefly broke through $4600/oz, reaching a new high since May; COMEX gold futures closed around $4624 on Friday, up more than 5% this week. What’s more noteworthy is that this gold rally is not simply driven by "war-driven safe haven" demand. What’s really making the market rethink is the volatility in the U.S. Treasury market itself. This week, U.S. long-term Treasuries faced sell-offs, with long-end yields rising significantly. Subsequently, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, aiming to ease pressure in the long-term bond market and reduce long-term financing costs. Normally, the logic goes: Higher U.S. Treasury yields → increased opportunity cost of holding gold → gold should be under pressure. But this time, the opposite happened. After the Treasury intervened to stabilize the long bond market, the U.S. dollar weakened, and market concerns shifted from "how high interest rates will go" to: How will the U.S. resolve such a massive debt burden in the future? U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and against this backdrop, investors are starting to seek assets that do not rely on the credit of any single country. Gold naturally becomes one of those choices. So, I think the most important aspect of this gold rally is not the $4600 figure itself. It’s a bigger change: Previously, when risks occurred, capital’s first thought was "buy U.S. Treasuries." Now the market is beginning to see