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🚨 The DRAM game just changed. For decades, the memory market was controlled by three giants: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Their playbook was simple: 📈 When demand surged, everyone expanded capacity. 📉 When demand weakened, everyone cut production. If prices fell too far, one of them would announce lower capital spending, supply would tighten, and the market would stabilize. This unwritten rule has worked for over 30 years. Now there's a fourth player. China's CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technolog$MU Yesterday, US stocks showed mixed performance, with the Dow rising and the Nasdaq closing slightly lower. Memory chips plunged across the board, with SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Nvidia leading the declines. Funds worried about a downward storage cycle combined with the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision to avoid risks; $SNDK $SKHYNIX Stable tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft bucked the trend and strengthened. The market is highly cautious, and short-term trends are entirely determined by the outcome of this interest rate decision. 🥞 Overall closing performance of the main index: extreme divergence among the three major indices, traditional blue chips strengthening, while technology growth collectively comes under pressure: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.51%; The S&P 500 edged up 0.02%; The Nasdaq index fell 0.18%. The market showed a typical high-low switching rally: funds fleeing from high-end AI chip and storage cycle stocks, flowing into defensive blue chips and leading software internet stocks for safe havens. 🍳 Sector and Popular Stock Trends 1. Memory and semiconductor sectors collapsed across the board (the biggest drag of the day). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.23%, with the largest intraday drop of nearly 5%. SanDisk plunged 11.02%, leading the decline in the sector; SK Hynix plunged 7.47%, falling below its IPO price shortly after listing; Micron Technology closed down 2.25%; Nvidia plunged nearly 5%, AMD dropped over 5%, and ASML fell close to 6%. $NVDA $SAMSUNG Core Drivers of Decline: Market concerns over declining returns on capital expenditure for AI computing power, combined with Changxin Technology's IPO breaking the overseas storage oligopoly pattern, leading funds to price in storage overcapacity and expectations of a downturn in the cycle; Moreover, the Federal Reserve is discussing interest ratesWhen talking about AI, people usually first look at NVIDIA.
Next in line are GPU, optical modules, liquid cooling, power, and data centers.
Memory is often placed later.
But a server with only computing power and insufficient memory is like a person whose brain works fast but only has one sheet of paper on the desk.
Model parameters, cached data, and computation results all need to move continuously between the processor and memory.
The larger the model, the higher the requirements for memory capacity and speed.
This is also why, in the later stages of the AI market, capital starts to shift from purely chasing computing chips to gradually spreading into storage, networking, and power supply.
ChangXin Technology happens to be positioned here.
The company's main products include the DDR series for computers and servers, as well as the LPDDR series for mobile devices like phones.
Their products already cover mainstream directions such as DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4X, and LPDDR5/5X.
However, ordinary DRAM and HBM cannot be completely equated.
HBM is high-bandwidth memory, mainly serving high-end AI accelerators, with higher technical, packaging, and customer certification thresholds.
ChangXin Technology's most solid foundation currently remains traditional DDR and LPDDR products.
Therefore, looking at ChangXin cannot be limited to just shouting "AI chip."
A more realistic question is whether it can first expand its share in server DDR5, mobile memory, and domestic terminal markets, then gradually move toward a higher-end product structure.
AI has brought a very good industry window for ChangXin Technology.
After international manufacturers invest more resources in high-value products, some traditional DRAM markets may see new supply opportunities.
Domestic server, phone, and computer manufacturers also hope for a more stable supply chain.
These opportunities truly exist.
But AI can only open the door.
How far ChangXin can ultimately go still depends on product performance, cost, yield, and delivery capability.
The chip industry does not have market share that can be maintained by sentiment alone.
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $ETH On its first day of listing, Changxin Technology's total market value once exceeded ¥3 trillion.
Many people, upon seeing this number, didn't feel excitement but rather confusion.
Why can a company that will only become profitable in 2025 receive such a high valuation?
The answer is simple.
The market is not buying how much Changxin Technology can earn today, but what position it might occupy in the future.
Memory chips are a very special industry.
The products appear highly standardized; manufacturers all sell DDR, LPDDR, but there are very few companies worldwide that can stably mass-produce, control costs, and continuously upgrade processes.
Changxin Technology has become China's leading DRAM manufacturer by scale and has entered the ranks of the world's major DRAM suppliers.
This scarcity is almost unmatched by any other asset in the A-share market.
On the other hand, AI is raising market expectations for memory again.
Training models require graphics cards, and running models also needs massive data reading, caching, and transmission.
The greater the computing power, the higher the demands for memory capacity, speed, and bandwidth.
Therefore, the market is willing to see Changxin Technology as part of AI infrastructure, not just a traditional cyclical chip company.
However, scarcity does not mean any price is reasonable.
Changxin Technology's closing price on the first day was ¥49, more than four times the issue price of ¥8.66, with a total market value of about ¥3.28 trillion.
This pricing already includes a large amount of future expectations.
Its implicit assumptions include: continued market share growth, smooth product upgrades, sustained capacity expansion, memory prices remaining high, and AI demand not cooling significantly.
If any of these fall short of expectations, the valuation may be recalculated.
Changxin Technology is certainly a scarce company.
But a scarce company and a scarce price are not the same thing.
On the first day of listing, the market is buying a dream.
A year after listing, everyone will be looking at the financial statements.
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $BTC On July 27, Changxin Technology officially debuted on the STAR Market.
The issue price was ¥8.66, and it closed at ¥49 on the first day of listing, an increase of 465.82%, with a total market value of about ¥3.28 trillion.
A company making memory chips stood at the forefront of A-share market value on its first day of listing. Such a scene was almost unimaginable a few years ago.
But what truly matters about Changxin Technology’s listing is not how much it rose on the first day.
Its greatest significance is that China’s capital market finally has a truly original DRAM manufacturer.
DRAM is not an ordinary chip.
Mobile phones running software, computers opening programs, and servers processing data all rely on it. Without memory, even the strongest processor can only wait.
This industry has long been dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
China has a huge market for mobile phones, computers, servers, and cloud computing but has long lacked its own large-scale DRAM suppliers.
The emergence of Changxin Technology fills exactly this gap.
Founded in 2016 and headquartered in Hefei, the company’s business covers DRAM design, research and development, production, and sales. It has already launched products such as DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4X, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X.
From an industry perspective, Changxin’s listing is equivalent to bringing a continuously expanding chip factory to the capital market.
In the future, the market will not only watch its story but also focus on its yield, capacity, price, R&D, and profits.
This is both a highlight and a pressure.
Changxin Technology has completed the transition from a "domestic substitution concept" to a "publicly listed company."
The real test ahead is whether it can still stand firm during the next downturn in the storage industry.
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
$BTC I used AI to build a fully automated trading robot, and I've been running live trading for a week now
First, the results: principal 1,900U, net profit of +1,028U (+54%) in 7 days, with zero human intervention throughout.
I'm not a programmer
I can't write quantitative strategies, nor do I understand machine learning. But I have an AI assistant—I repeatedly discuss trading logic with it, it helps me write code, backtest, and deploy to the live market.
The whole process feels like working alongside a 24-hour online quantitative researcher + full-stack engineer.
How did the strategy come about?
It's not about having AI "give me a money-making strategy"—that's the dumbest use.
I first share my trading observations with it, the AI turns this thought into code, and then runs it for backtesting. After the run, tell me: 80% win rate, 2.47 win-loss ratio, 7.5 weeks +22x.
Of course, I didn't believe it. So the next day, we started the live testing.
Total net profit: +1,028U, win rate 80%, exactly matching backtesting.
Signal never misses: a candlestick every 5 minutes, dozens of candlesticks in a single night, and it scans without missing a single second.
Risk control with zero emotion: stop losses without moving. If I see a floating loss of 500U, my hand shakes and I want to take on the trade—the machine doesn't know how, so I cut when necessary.
Drawdown protection is a stroke of genius: this is the mechanism I discussed with AI.
Sandwich protection: OCO hard stop-loss (bottom line) + break-even stop loss after adding positions (no losses) + drawdown protection (locking profits), all three effective simultaneously. Even if the internet goes offline in the middle of the night, process guardian automatically reactivates after 30 seconds, and the whole system doesn't collapse.
The thing that surprised me the most
It's not about making money—it's about trust.
On the first day, I checked my holdings every 10 minutes. The next day, I only watched a few times. On the third day, when I found out it was trading, I was scrolling through Douyin.
Now I've completely let go. When the signal comes, place the order directly. Just notify me via WeChat.
An AI code running in the terminal is even more stable than me, a seasoned veteran who has been trading for two years.
AI won't make you rich overnight. But it can help you:
Turn vague ideas into actionable strategies
Use historical data to verify whether the strategy can actually make money
Execute 24 hours a day with cold blood, unswayed by greed and fear
#OKX #加密货币 #合约交易 #AI量化$ALLO （Allora）
ALLO的上涨，根植于AI赛道持续轮动的大背景——DeAI（去中心化人工智能）被认为是少数有明确落地场景的细分方向。
ALLO拥有独特的通缩模型——调用AI推理会燃烧ALLO代币。总供应量100亿枚，但流通量仅占约20%。如果生态持续扩张（如Cobot用量、Prime质押等持续增长），通缩效应将不断收窄流通供给，对价格形成结构性支撑。
此前Allora团队发布了“Allo v3”升级，将协议从简单的流动性层转变为跨链的“通用分配”网络——允许AI代理在12个以上EVM链上自主分配资金。这一升级大幅拓展了协议的想象空间，是近期生态发展的核心里程碑。
从盘面结构看，ALLO的多头趋势已全面启动——空头在每次下跌时都无法有效延续，低点逐步抬高，筹码稳步集中。不过7月15日的分析也指出，ALLO上行走势平稳但成交量尚显不足，需警惕冲高回落。🚨 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN CATALYST OF THE YEAR? The Bitcoin Clarity Act is reportedly expected to receive a U.S. Senate vote as early as next week. If passed, it could mark one of the most significant steps toward regulatory clarity for the crypto industry. Why the market is watching: ⚖️ Clearer rules could reduce uncertainty for investors. 🏦 Institutions may gain greater confidence to expand crypto exposure. 🌍 A defined regulatory framework could accelerate long-term adoption. For years, crypto To view keyboard shortcuts, press the question mark
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Taiwan "copies EU MiCA homework" and submits it, the license battle officially begins
Kaomei'er 
@Conflux_Intern
·
36 minutes ago
On July 1, Taiwan's Legislative Yuan passed the "Virtual Asset Service Act" in its third reading.
The core of the bill is not complicated: VASPs (Virtual Asset Service Providers) and stablecoin issuers must obtain approval from the Financial Supervisory Commission to operate. Platforms that have completed anti-money laundering registration have 12 months to apply for a license and another 21 months to obtain formal approval.
If approval is not obtained by the deadline, platforms and individuals still "naked running" face up to 7 years imprisonment and fines up to 100 million New Taiwan Dollars. Those involved in fraud or market manipulation face sentences ranging from 3 to 10 years, with fines up to 200 million New Taiwan Dollars.
The "lease" of the gray area expires
Over the past years, Taiwan's crypto industry has lived in a very delicate space. As long as anti-money laundering registration is completed, platforms could operate under the banner of "compliant operation" to attract users. As for licenses, internal controls, and cybersecurity—these hard thresholds—regulators never truly forced compliance.
This ambiguity has supported many small and medium exchanges and shadow service providers. Their moat is not technology or capital strength, but information asymmetry and regulatory sluggishness.
Now this moat has been filled. Taiwanese lawyer Kevin Cheng puts it bluntly: companies that survive by skirting regulations will no longer have gray areas to hide.
For ordinary investors, this means the next 21 months will be a process of trust revaluation. Which platforms genuinely invest in licenses and internal controls, and which quietly shrink or run away, the answers will gradually emerge. Historical experience tells us that in every such window period, some exchanges choose "closing down is cheaper than compliance."
A replica of MiCA
If you feel Taiwan's stablecoin rules look familiar, that's right—they are almost copied from the EU's MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation).
MiCA's core design for stablecoins is two iron rules. First, reserves must be full, segregated, and bankruptcy-remote, requiring issuers to maintain sufficient reserves and guarantee redemption mechanisms and operational safety measures to prevent liquidity crises and bank runs. Second, paying interest to holders is prohibited; Article 50 of MiCA directly forbids electronic money tokens from paying interest to holders, with the straightforward reason of drawing a clear line between payment functions and yield generation, preventing stablecoins from becoming disguised savings tools.
Taiwan's legislation this time almost copies this verbatim—reserves must be custodied in domestic financial institutions, segregated from common equity, prioritized for repayment to holders in bankruptcy, and issuers are prohibited from paying interest. This is no coincidence; it is the consensus draft formed by global regulators on stablecoin issues. The "safety standards" for stablecoins have been written first by the EU; Taiwan is not innovating regulation but copying a verified homework.
MiCA's requirements for exchanges and service providers (CASPs) follow the same logic. Whitepapers, financial reports, and operational details must be publicly disclosed according to regulatory standards to enhance market integrity and investor trust; for serious violations, regulators have the authority to permanently ban companies from providing specific crypto assets or services. Taiwan's VASP licensing system, internal control requirements, and penalty design follow the same logic of "prove you deserve the license, or be permanently out."
Stricter than MiCA
The real difference is that Taiwan has sharpened the regulatory knife sharper than the EU.
MiCA's penalties mostly remain administrative—freezing funds, revoking licenses, fines—a "closing shop" logic. Regulators can freeze suspected illegal funds or permanently ban companies from providing services, but there is no clause sending unlicensed operators directly to prison.
Taiwan explicitly includes criminal liability in the law—unlicensed operation of VASPs or stablecoin issuance can lead to up to 7 years imprisonment; fraud or market manipulation, 3 to 10 years. This is the essential difference. MiCA targets "companies," Taiwan targets "people." For practitioners used to "company fines and then continuing under a new shell," Taiwan's approach directly blocks this—people can go to jail, shells cannot replace jail time.
Additionally, MiCA gives member states some transitional flexibility; Germany, Austria, Ireland, and others have shorter transition windows than the unified deadline, while the Netherlands and Poland started earlier, making the overall pace fragmented and gradual. Taiwan's 12 months to apply and 21 months to approve is a hard timeline with no flexibility, creating a stronger sense of compression.
Old money enters, compliance becomes a chip
Another door opened by this law is allowing traditional financial institutions to directly apply to operate VASPs. Banks, brokerages, these holders of licenses, risk control teams, and compliance budgets now have a legitimate entry ticket.
Kevin Cheng's judgment is: existing crypto companies will soon face a batch of new competitors "whose compliance capabilities far exceed their own." The funding logic behind this is clear—the first beneficiaries of regulatory frameworks are often not the original industry players but traditional capital waiting on the sidelines until rules are clear.
When rules are unclear, wild teams run fast and capture market share; once rules are clear, compliance costs become calculable costs, and big money has the advantage—they are not afraid of being slow, but of uncertainty. Taiwan's legislation essentially removes the variable of "uncertainty" from the table and replaces it with "compliance cost."
For existing Taiwanese crypto companies, the window period is the last preparation time. Either complete licenses, capital, and risk control systems before traditional financial institutions complete their layout, establishing a first-mover advantage hard for latecomers to replicate in the short term; or prepare to be acquired or squeezed to the market edge.
A narrow door for derivatives
Amid tightening, legislators left a tiny gap.
The resolution requires the Financial Supervisory Commission to submit a plan within one year to open up crypto companies to offer "cryptocurrency derivatives." This narrow door may be a key future variable.👇👇 Has Bitcoin Bottomed? 🤔 My view: Probably not—at least not yet. Here's why: 📉 History rhymes. Previous bear markets saw strong mid-cycle rallies before making new lows. The current rally still fits that pattern. 📊 The drawdown remains relatively shallow. Past bear markets reached much deeper corrections before finding a lasting bottom. 🔄 No major capitulation event. Previous cycle lows were marked by forced liquidations and panic selling. This cycle hasn't seen a comparable washout. 💰 RealiFederal Reserve Expectations Diverge
Trump publicly supports Waller leading the Federal Reserve, pressuring policy toward the world's lowest interest rates, criticizing the current board as "politicized" and lacking sufficient motivation for rate cuts. The mainstream market expectation for this FOMC meeting is to hold steady, but the probability of a rate hike has risen to 30%, with a 68% chance of a hike within the year; the market is focused on Waller's speech, wary that energy inflation risks may strengthen tightening expectations.
Short term: The expectation of no rate hike is basically priced in by the market, only bringing a weak emotional recovery, unlikely to reverse the current weak market trend.
Mid term: The cloud of rate hikes has not dissipated; if Waller's speech mentions oil supply shocks pushing up inflation, it will further strengthen hawkish expectations, continuously suppressing valuations of crypto risk assets.
Long term: The low interest rate policy stance constitutes a long-term bullish logic, but currently it is only a political statement with a long realization cycle, not supporting a trend reversal for now.
Before the FOMC meeting, the market is likely to be cautiously volatile; pay attention to hawkish or dovish signals in the meeting statement and Waller's speech, strictly control positions to cope with unexpected volatility A股有全世界最好的韭菜，会给上市公司最好的估值。
美光跌破万亿市值了，现在长鑫市值差不多是美光的一半，业绩却天差地别。
今天的长鑫差不多相当于两个茅台，而在4年前这家公司还在盈亏线上挣扎，财富在不同时代间的流动就是如此的激荡剧烈。
长鑫股价未来的潜力？我觉得6个月以内的炒作波动性很大，向上再涨几成完全有可能，毕竟只有3000亿流通市值，仅相当于去年的寒武纪，有个300-500亿热钱推动就能炒上去。
但随着时间线推移，大量限售股解禁，长鑫的情绪会冷却，估值也会回归理性，最终还是一分价钱一分货。#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 July 28, 2026 Crypto Market Analysis
(Reference for point positions is valid only on the same day)
Source: Da Dart
For now, let's view this structure as bearish; there's no rush to buy the bottom during the decline.
Although the weekly chart has not yet closed the line, it has already given back some of the gains from the previous three weeks of bullish candles; The daily chart has also turned downward, with the intraday trend continuing to tilt downward. 63,700 is undergoing continuation testing after breaking below it; if it cannot hold, it means this downtrend is not yet over.
【BTC】
Resistance above: 64,300, 64,800, 65,200
Support levels: 62,500, 61,400, 60,600
63,700 is currently the core key level. If it cannot recover quickly after a break, first look to 62,500. Whether there is a stoppage and consolidation in this area will determine whether the pullback will first break through a single recovery or continue to seek deeper support at 61,400 and 60,600.
64,300 is both the dividing line between bulls and bears on the daily chart, and the first threshold for a rebound to strengthen. Only when prices return to 64,300 can there be conditions to recover from 64,800 and 65,200; If you can't hold back, try to recover weakly on the rebound first. Don't rush to confirm the downtrend is over just because of one or two bullish candles.
Not guessing the lowest point now; first let's see if 63,700 can recover after falling. If 62500 has taken hold, wait for a recovery. If 62500 continues to fall, focus on 61400 and 60600. Confirming first is more important than early bottom-fishing.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.Playing the grid into a suicide attack, 95U loses 65U, SanDisk teaches me how to be a person
Here's the story: I opened a grid on SanDisk, with a range of 1337-1635, 10x leverage, hoping to profit from volatility in a volatile market. As a result, SanDisk dropped from 2354 all the way to 1200. During the decline, Grid diligently helped me buy the bottom, losing more and more, and buying more and more as I lost. 524 arbitrage attempts, earning a total of 1.45 USD, unrealized loss of 65 USD, total return -67.95%. Grid strategies are like money printing machines in volatile markets, and meat grinders in one-sided declines. It doesn't use brains, only executes mechanically. When the price drops below the lower band, you can only watch as losses widen or manually cut losses and exit. After paying the tuition, I learned the lesson: don't open grid positions during a downtrend, and if you do, only open spot grid trading, without leverage. SanDisk's price rose from 28 to 2354, an 84-fold increase. A 40% pullback is normal; what's abnormal is that I set the wrong parameters.
SanDisk is currently around 1200, so I'm waiting and not bottom-fishing. I'll wait until it holds above 1300 before reconsidering. 95U lost 65U, and the remaining 30U was saved for a meal, at least better than continuing to lose money. I'm really rough今日下跌的两大核心驱动
① 地缘风险溢价消退（情绪面）
美伊谈判出现进展，美军暂停对伊攻击，布伦特原油随即下跌90.43/桶。前期因地缘冲突积累的风险溢价正在快速挤出，资金从风险资产轮动至黄金、白银等传统避险资产。地缘溢价的消退，意味着此前支撑价格上涨的“战争叙事”正在瓦解。
② 加息预期持续升温（宏观面）
CME数据显示，市场认为7月加息25个基点的概率为36.3%，9月加息概率已升至55.7%。6月通胀虽回落至3.5%，但中东局势推高油价使政策路径更加复杂。国债收益率上行进一步压制加密资产的估值空间。
叠加24小时内超15万人爆仓、爆仓总金额约5.91亿美元，多头被迫平仓进一步加剧了下跌。$ETH $BTC $SOL #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 TETHER'S STRATEGY FUNDING TWO COMPETITIVE BLOCKCHAINS TO CAPTURE $2.9 BILLION IN FEES ⚡
Stablecoin issuer Tether is executing a strategic maneuver by financing two distinct blockchain networks, Plasma and Stable, to resolve operational cost leakages. Currently, every time users execute a USDT transfer, mandatory gas fees are remitted to underlying infrastructure platforms like Ethereum or Tron. This outward fee leakage is estimated at approximately $2.9 billion annually, representing a massive revenue stream that Tether has yet to capture directly.
Launched in September, Plasma operates by offering zero-fee USDT transfers, focusing on expanding decentralized finance ecosystems. Conversely, Stable, which debuted in December, utilizes USDT directly as its native gas token, catering specifically to enterprise payment solutions. Neither project directly competes with the other; instead, both target market share held by Tron, which controls roughly 45% of global USDT circulation due to its dominance in international remittances.
Although both new blockchains have yet to capture significant market share from Tron, this direction highlights Tether's long-term capital optimization vision. Reducing intermediary costs enhances operational efficiency and fortifies the digital asset ecosystem. Infrastructure support across major exchanges continues to provide a firm foundation for stable payment solutions to scale. Infrastructure self-reliance remains a pivotal driver for the broader market.
In your opinion, will Tether funding dedicated blockchains successfully allow them to capture the $2.9 billion in transfer fees currently flowing to Tron and Ethereum?
Please do your own research carefully before making any transactions (DYOR). $TRX $ETH $XPL Changxin Memory just listed and flipped the whole storage game 🚨
A-shares have a new king. CXMT debuted on STAR, surged to a 3 trillion yuan market cap — passing ICBC. I tried for the IPO lottery too. Balance too low. Story of my life.
With CXMT in, DRAM is now a 3-way fight: China vs US vs Korea. The SK Hynix / Micron / SanDisk monopoly is cracking. CXMT already grabbed 8% global share, sitting at #4 and climbing.
Fundamentals look wild. H1 2026 revenue + profit up multiples. 25x PE in this tech cycle? Cheap vs the US giants.
But 2 big risks to watch:
1. Ownership chaos: ∼10M people applied, 7M+ retail got shares. No major holders locked in. When it pops, everyone sells into each other.
2. Supply bomb: Only 6.73% float tradable day 1, no limits for 5 days. Hype can send it parabolic, but lock-up expiries are coming fast.
Great company. Not necessarily a blind buy here.
#DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch After a large amount of ETH short liquidation, the market is waiting for trend confirmation
If the liquidation data itself already provides sufficient conditions for short-term repricing, then whether the bulls can control the depth of subsequent adjustments is the real point of disagreement.
The original post cited a set of liquidation data: approximately $2.7 billion in short positions and about $1.7 billion in long positions were forcibly liquidated. The bears suffered more severe losses, and that's a fact. But it's important to clarify that liquidation data is the result, not the cause—it reflects the tail shock of a period of intense volatility, not a leading signal of trend continuation.
Impact on Market Structure:
- Large-scale short liquidations directly reduce the short-term pressure on ETH short selling, releasing some passive buying (closing buys), which provides very short-term support for the price.
- On the other hand, bulls also endured $1.7 billion in liquidations, indicating that leveraged long positions were also washed out, which in turn reduced the risk of a sharp drop caused by a bullish stampede.
- Overall leverage has decreased, and market participants have become cleaner, which helps prices regain balance at lower volatility.
Pricing logic and expectations gap:
- The current ETH price has partially priced in the positive news of short selling, but what remains unpriced is: if a correction occurs, will the market see it as a healthy pullback (buying opportunity) or as the starting point for a trend reversal?
- Conditions for a bullish path: During the correction, volume decreases, prices hold key support levels (such as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement or the upper boundary of the previous range), and spot premiums remain stable. If met, it may form a structure of charging upward attacks.
- Conditions for bearish risk: If the adjustment is accompanied by a drop on high volume, or if the price breaks support and the rebound becomes weak, it may indicate that the liquidity vacuum after liquidation actually attracts new bears, causing the trend to fail.
Conclusion: Liquidation data itself does not constitute trend confirmation; it only removes some of the noise that hinders price discovery. The real test lies in the willingness and depth of buying in the next round of correction. If the correction is quickly absorbed, the upside structure holds; If the correction evolves into an accelerated decline, a reassessment is necessary.
The market always completes self-correction through liquidation. Follow the trend, not just the numbers.
$ETH $BTC#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 整个盘面就一个字：惨。BTC现报63184，跌2.07%，63k关口已经破了。量能64亿，比前几天略有放大，说明有人在抄底也有人割肉。日内最低打到63122，62k岌岌可危。如果63k确认失守，下一站看62k甚至61k。ETH更惨，跌2.65%到1876，1900也失守了。跟屁虫当得称职，大哥破位它跟着摔。芯片板块全线崩溃：三星跌5.71%到154.86，从前期高点下来已经跌了快30%。闪迪跌4.35%到1225，7月一个月从2354跌到1225，腰斩了47%。AMD跌0.66%还算抗跌，英特尔跌0.34%基本没动。 今天这波下跌的核心驱动是AI硬件板块集体重估。三星电子股价创年内新低，SK海力士同步下跌，市场正在重新定价AI基础设施的投资回报周期。英伟达给OpenAI融资租数据中心这事的争议还在发酵，华尔街对“循环融资”模式的质疑没有消退。三星的下跌更复杂一些。除了AI板块整体承压，三星还面临存储芯片库存上升的压力。手机业务利润下滑，加上存储芯片价格涨势放缓，多重利空叠加，盘面反应很直接。 关键点位：BTC支撑看63k（已破），下一支撑62k-61$CORE Complete summary of the project team's Shanghai itinerary (no official exact schedule, compiled based on community news, industry summits, and PR moves)
1. Travel Background
After completing negotiations with the Hong Kong institution, the team arrived in Shanghai in batches in late July. The group included the foundation's business manager, ecosystem coordinator, and overseas custody coordinator, with no public senior executive appearances (the entire process was low-key, and no group photos were made public). Domestically, the entire process is handled by outsourced PR and community service providers, with core operators rarely appearing in public.
2. Daily Segmented Itinerary (7.24-7.28)
July 24: Implementation warm-up, private director for closed-door negotiations
1. Afternoon: Arrive in Pudong and check in at a five-star hotel in Lujiazui (convenient for connecting with asset management institutions);
2. Evening: Closed-door small private board meeting, connecting with local small family offices and crypto asset management intermediaries, focusing on BTC dual staking and Bitcoin grid narratives, negotiating cooperation on custody channels;
3. Behind-the-scenes Actions: Simultaneously placing new advertorial materials to domestic internet trolls and Planet creators, laying the groundwork for the "Shanghai Strategic Layout" positive copy.
July 25: Industry summit access + institutional visits
1. Morning: West Bund Web3 small closed-door forum (no speeches, only private connections with participating institutions from the audience), maintaining a low profile throughout, not highlighting project names;
2. Afternoon: Visit two Shanghai offshore asset consulting firms to discuss the Asia-Pacific compliance framework and SatPay cross-border payment implementation packages;
3. Evening: Business dinner, connecting with exchanges as intermediaries and traffic accounts to discuss quantitative stability maintenance and community public opinion control plans.
July 26: Ecosystem investment attraction, rehashing old stories and exporting new stories
1. Morning: Offline small developer tea party at Zhangjiang Science and Technology Innovation Park (hosted by outsourcing service providers, with project staff only attending), presenting BTCFi and the old Bitcoin grid framework;
2. Afternoon: Communicate with domestic custody channels to negotiate cooperation for new validation nodes (only listed cooperation, no actual investment funding);
3. Key action: The entire internet simultaneously flooded with the advertorial article "Shanghai Implementation Major Strategy," which is the positive publicity you see about the Bitcoin power grid, used to hedge against negative sentiment caused by the new low in the coin price.
July 27: Follow-up visits to mediate, finalizing the publicity rhythm
1. No large-scale public events throughout the day; visit asset management intermediaries who have been coordinated in the early stages in a dispersed manner;
2. Finalize the promotional schedule for subsequent trips to Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, and plan the key release points for the next half month;
3. Simultaneously issue community stability maintenance tasks: require Blowouts to publish sky-high 5U-15U price forecasts to stabilize deeply stuck retail investors.
On July 28 (today), preparations for the return trip were wrapped up
1. Morning: Compiled the Shanghai negotiation and matchmaking list, mostly focused on intention communication, with no substantial signing and landing;
2. Depart Shanghai in batches in the afternoon, some returning to Hong Kong, some flying back to the main location of the overseas foundation;
3. After returning, they will continue to release PR releases claiming "The Shanghai trip was fruitful," continuing to create empty promises and build momentum.
3. The Three Truths About the Itinerary (Exposing Promotional Filters)
1. No substantial signing of the contract was completed throughout the process
All institutional connections remain at the level of intention exchanges, with no capital entering the market, no SatPay implementation cooperation, and no large-scale institutional BTC staking to gain growth; Strategic planning is all verbal negotiations used to produce PR material.
2. All travel expenses are 100% driven by selling CORE tokens
The project has no ecosystem revenue; the Shanghai hotel, summit tickets, intermediary tea fees, and paid poster marketing budgets all come from zero-cost chips unlocked each month; The lower the coin price, the more frequent city campaigns are needed, creating the illusion of "project sustained development" to facilitate shipments.
3. Quietly hide the core team, only sending external personnel to show up
The core personnel holding large amounts of Treasury chips and responsible for quantitative trading did not attend public events at all; only business outsourcing specialists appeared to avoid risks related to market manipulation and token cash-outs.
⚠️ Risk warning: Speculative virtual currency trading is considered an illegal financial activity in China. The content objectively reviews industry PR activities and does not constitute any investment advice.A very clear recent change in the market: the hotspots are no longer concentrated on AI and new meme coins.
Funds have started to explore unpopular sectors that experienced significant declines earlier.
Old MEME coins PEOPLE, NFT blue chip $APE, cross-chain infrastructure ZRO, and SOL token issuance platform PUMP have all rebounded by over 10%.
This is a typical case of existing funds "robbing Peter to pay Paul," with rapid sector rotation.
At this stage, there is not enough incremental capital to support a full-scale bull market, so chasing high in one sector can easily lead to an immediate switch.If you ask me if SanDisk can still reach 1600, I'll ask you in return: Do you know how much this lousy company has risen since it was split last year? From $28 to $2,354—in less than a year, that's an 84-fold increase. And what happened? In July alone, it fell from 2354 to 1295, a 45% decrease. Is this called defying the heavens? This is called a pig-butchering scam. To understand why it has risen first, you can understand why it has fallen. The core driving force behind SanDisk's current rally is one — the imbalance between supply and demand for AI memory chips. Bernstein spoke very bluntly: SanDisk signed a batch of new long-term supply agreements (LTAs), which are no longer the same-date contracts as before, but fixed price ranges + customer prepaid financial commitments, with contract terms extended to three to five years. Goldman Sachs forecasts the August 5 earnings report to be a "very strong quarter," setting a target price as high as $2,200. The performance was indeed impressive: Q3 data center revenue surged 233% quarter-on-quarter, with gross margin reaching 78.4%. Management's Q4 guidance is also quite optimistic: revenue of $7.75-8.25 billion, gross margin of 79%-81%, and earnings per share of $30-33. But look at the stock price—what is it doing? On July 1, Bank of America raised its target price to $2,500, and SanDisk fell 10% that day. On July 16, it dropped another 13% in a single day. By July 27, another drop of over 13% occurred, directly breaking through 1400. Why is that? Because the market fears that things have changed. A stock that has risen 84 times doesn't care about its "performance" at all, only whether it "can get better." HuaGuys, SHIB dropped 6.38% today, with the current price at $0.000004645. The weekend's surge was driven by concentrated buying by Korean retail investors—Upbit's SHIB/KRW pair accounted for over 10% of global trading volume, with a second rally in early Asian trading, closely aligning with South Korea's trading session. During the same period, DOGE only rose moderately, indicating a single-asset market with concentrated capital flowing into SHIB, rather than a full recovery in the Meme sector. Price Levels: Resistance $0.00000500 (100-day EMA), strong resistance $0.00000600 (200-day EMA); Support is at $0.00000445-$0.00000464 (currently being tested), with key support at $0.00000402. 0.00000445 is the defensive line that bulls must hold. If it breaks down, the weekend's surge will be just a brief emotional impulse, not the starting point of a trend. Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice. $ETH $BTC $SHIB #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Stabilize the AI Narrative? #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables Woke up to everything in red, what happened?
Opened the shop in the morning, after the morning rush, I leaned against the cashier counter and scrolled through my phone. The trending topics were all red. $BTC dropped nearly 2%, ETH fell almost 3%, SAMSUNG down 5%, XSKHY down 1.7%, XMSFT down 0.4%, $XMSFT down 1.2%, and $CL also dropped 2%. The screen was full of green numbers.
People in the group chat were already cursing. Some said it was funds seeking safety ahead of the FOMC, others said the ceasefire news caused the war premium to fade, some blamed Changxin's listing for draining liquidity. There were all kinds of explanations, but no one could say for sure which was the real reason.
I checked the news. Bitcoin dropped 2.53% in 24 hours, with over 150,000 liquidations across the network, ETH fell 3.22%. This wave wiped out the gains from the oil price crash and BTC's rebound to 65,000 in the past few days. BTC ETF just ended a 7-day streak of net inflows, with a single-day outflow of 225 million; Fidelity's FBTC was hit hard, losing 200 million in one day. I was thinking that with oil prices down and inflation pressure easing, BTC might finally catch a break, but before it could even breathe, it was pushed back down.
The reason boils down to one thing: the FOMC is coming. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and the market fears a rate hike. Interest rate futures have pushed the probability of a hike to about 36%, up from 13% a week ago. On Polymarket, it even reached 27%. No one dares to bet whether the Fed will hold steady or actually raise rates this time. Historically, Bitcoin and rate hike probabilities have moved inversely.
The screen is all red, but honestly, my small position in the account is also in the red. I glanced and closed it, not wanting to say much. Watching it doesn't help; what should fall will fall, and what should rise will rise naturally. Let's wait for the FOMC results. Jumping in now means either bottom-fishing or catching a falling knife.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元
Breaking data released: The monthly trading volume of RWA real-world asset perpetual contracts has surged to $470 billion, multiplying several times compared to the beginning of the year. Many outsiders don't understand this news, so Coin Brother straightforwardly breaks it down: RWA perpetuals are on-chain leveraged contracts tracking US stocks, commodities, and US bonds, trading 24/7 nonstop.
The explosion in trading volume essentially means traditional financial capital has found a new channel to enter and exit the crypto market, no longer relying solely on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
1. Core logic behind the volume surge
1) Shift in trading categories: Tokenized tech stocks, storage chips, crude oil, and gold have become the main drivers of volume.
Previously, RWA mainly focused on US Treasury spot assets. Now, traders are flocking to tokenized perpetuals of Tesla, Microsoft, and storage sectors. A large amount of short-term US stock capital directly goes long or short tech targets on crypto platforms without needing US stock accounts, settled in stablecoins, with lower barriers and unrestricted trading hours.
2) Capital diversion effect emerges
Two types of capital continue to enter:
① Traditional short-term traders using RWA contracts to hedge US stock holdings;
② Native crypto funds no longer just speculating on native coins but starting to allocate real-world assets to diversify risk.
3) Exchanges fully support
Leading platforms continuously launch RWA perpetual products, lowering trading thresholds and improving liquidity. However, risks exist simultaneously: oracle price delays, regulatory uncertainties, and insufficient depth, causing slippage during volatile markets.
2. Objective breakdown of benefits and potential risks
✅ Positive signals
1) Large amounts of traditional capital flow into the crypto ecosystem via the RWA channel, steadily increasing stablecoin demand, benefiting the crypto market's liquidity foundation in the mid to long term;
2) Opening linkage channels between crypto, US stocks, and commodities accelerates global asset price transmission;
3) The RWA narrative continues to materialize, with underlying public chains and RWA protocols in this sector having long-term potential.
Not to be ignored negatives
1) Capital diversion! A large amount of speculative funds shift to RWA stock and commodity contracts, temporarily withdrawing liquidity from Bitcoin and altcoins;
2) Amplified volatility resonance. US stock earnings reports and macro data fluctuations at night directly transmit to crypto markets, causing more frequent overnight spikes;
3) Regulatory overhang. Tokenized securities are a regulatory focus; once restrictive policies are introduced, capital will quickly flee the sector.
3. Key: How it affects the Bitcoin market
Many mistakenly think RWA is unrelated to BTC, but now capital flows are interconnected with increasing correlation.
Two scenarios clearly distinguished:
1) Positive correlation: Continuous RWA inflows indicate global risk appetite recovery; strengthening US tech stocks and commodities drive Bitcoin to oscillate upward, testing resistance at 66800;
2) Negative resonance: A sharp US stock drop causes RWA contracts to collectively crash, spreading panic and dragging BTC down to test support at 64000.
Coin Brother's key view: The most immediate short-term impact is amplified market volatility.
Going forward, overnight US stock news and tech earnings will be reflected faster in crypto prices, making overnight risk critical. In the mid to long term, RWA represents incremental capital inflows but will compete with Bitcoin for speculative funds in the short term.
4. BTC short-term key ranges
Support: 64600—64000
Resistance: 66000—66800
5. Coin Brother's practical approach
1) Spot traders
Current oscillation pattern remains unchanged; do not aggressively add positions based solely on RWA news. Gradually build positions at support zones on pullbacks; avoid chasing at resistance. Continue holding long-term base positions to reduce frequent trading fees. Extra attention: changes in stablecoin supply are the most direct indicator of incremental capital.
2) Futures traders
Overnight volatility risk significantly increases; reduce leverage and avoid heavy overnight positions. Stay mostly on the sidelines within the range, wait for effective support or resistance breaks to trade with the trend, strictly set stop losses, and avoid holding losing positions.
Do not blindly follow hype on small RWA-related tokens; most have poor liquidity and high risk.
3) Long-term focus
Track two key points: first, whether regulators impose restrictions on tokenized securities; second, whether RWA trading volume can sustain high levels to determine if this is a short-term market heat or a long-term capital trend.$SNDK $MU The sharp drop in US stocks owes much to Changxin
The veteran broke through, leaving nothing alive
Because the old and medium-sized companies are so ruthless that even their own companies are losing money, such as photovoltaics, and the overall profitability of new energy vehicles has begun to deteriorate
Double losses are better than single gains, and industries that were originally priced as luxury goods are now competing with migrant workers' incomes.
See today's BBA prices 😂 in mainland China
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables Amazon is set to release its Q2 earnings report on July 30, with the core market debate centered on whether AWS's 28% revenue growth rate can be sustained, and whether high AI infrastructure investments will erode its 37% operating margin and trigger a valuation restructuring.
Baseline data shows that AWS revenue in Q1 was $37.587 billion, up 28% year-over-year, with operating profit of $14.161 billion for the quarter, corresponding to a profit margin of 37.7%. Consolidated Q1 net sales reached $181.5 billion, with the official default Q2 net sales guidance range locked at $194 billion to $199 billion.
The driving factor transmission logic prioritizes AWS segment revenue growth, followed by margin losses, and finally the degree of capital expenditure squeezing free cash flow. New data centers, self-developed Trainium chip deployment, and energy costs are raising the cost base. If revenue growth cannot keep up with investment, the overall risk appetite of the technology sector will face a downward revision.
The trigger for the upside scenario is that AWS revenue growth remains at 28% or above, and the segment operating margin stays above 37%. The key variable to watch is whether demand released by AI services like Bedrock can absorb infrastructure depreciation. If the company's Q2 operating profit reaches the upper limit of the guidance range of $24 billion, capital will push up the valuation premium of the computing power chain again.
The failure signal of this upward scenario is AWS's revenue growth falling below 25%, or a quarterly decline in free cash flow due to capital expenditure pressure.
The downside scenario triggers AWS's revenue growth below 28% in the previous quarter, while new hardware depreciation and energy expenses drag segment profit margins below 35%. The variable to watch is the widening gap between free cash flow and operating cash flow, which will trigger a market repricing of AI infrastructure input-output ratios, leading to a collective clearing of high-β technology positions.
The failure of this downward scenario was confirmed by management during the conference call that limited computing power supply was the main reason for the slowdown in growth, and that sufficient orders on hand would ensure a rebound in the coming quarter.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is the actual AWS segment revenue, segment operating margin, and management's detailed explanation of capital expenditures and computing power supply bottlenecks to be released on July 30.
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Favorable Moments or Shortcoming? #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heardMany people ask me why someone running a family office spends every day showing off cold water baths, Oura data, and Pokémon cards. The answer is simple: I manage investment, body, and luck as one system. It's not just three things, but one thing. First, about money: core assets will only rise in the long run. In 2024, I did crypto by +380%, but in 2025 it only recovered +8%, and the year-to-date is still down 23–26%. But I wasn't worried at all. Why? Because I was looking at the M2. The US dollar M2 has been expanding at an average annual rate of 9% over the past 20 years. This means the cash in your hands is quietly evaporating by 9% every year. Gold is seen at 5,500, BTC at 100,000—not a prediction, it's math. Fiat currencies are depreciating, hard assets are being repriced—it's that simple. Interestingly, at the beginning of 2026, $BTC experienced a rare decoupling from global M2—starting from mid-2025, Bitcoin stopped following liquidity, with the Z-score dropping from +1.48 to -1.31. A group of people started shouting, "Digital gold narratives are dead." But history tells us that this deep negative correlation is often a precursor to a rebound. Last time correlation fell below -0.48, BTC jumped directly from 112,000 to a historic high of 126,000. The question of core assets has never been "whether they will rise," but "whether you can hold onto them." Tesla's Ten Years: The Crystal Ball Issue Started Buying Tesla in 2016, with an average price of 8 yuanTrump calls again for a rate cut, but the real market impact still depends on the Fed's stance
Trump has once again publicly pressured the Federal Reserve.
He called on the Fed to cut rates as soon as possible, even stating that the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates globally.
I believe Trump's statements are more about signaling a political position, but the real decision-maker on U.S. interest rates remains the Federal Reserve, not the White House.
The market will not reprice just because of a single call.
What truly affects Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and gold trends is the Fed's assessment of inflation, the economy, and the future policy path.
Currently, the market widely expects the Fed to likely keep rates unchanged this week.
This outcome has already been largely priced in by the market.
The real focus is on the post-meeting press conference.
Investors are more concerned about:
• How the Fed evaluates recent inflation data?
• Whether it believes conditions for a rate cut are gradually maturing?
• Whether it will signal any new policy directions for the coming months?
These points will directly influence market expectations for liquidity.
What does this mean for the crypto space?
If the Fed signals a dovish stance, acknowledges ongoing inflation improvement, and hints at potential rate cuts in the future, risk assets could continue to attract capital, and Bitcoin and Ethereum might gain new upward momentum.
If the language remains hawkish, emphasizing that inflation risks are not fully eliminated, the market may readjust rate cut expectations, and short-term volatility could increase.
Don't focus on politicians' speeches; pay attention to the institutions that truly hold decision-making power.
The market ultimately trades not on words but on whether future funding costs will decrease and liquidity will improve.
Trump can influence market sentiment, but the Fed decides monetary policy. What really impacts the next phase of the market is not who is calling for rate cuts, but whether the Fed signals a clearer policy shift. $ETH #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Last night, before going to bed, I casually opened a page and couldn't sleep at 2 a.m
South Korea's KOSPI fell 7%, triggering the sidecar mechanism
Nikkei fell 4%
Financial markets are collapsing
Then guess what
I immediately opened the BitMine withdrawal record
Four hours ago, BitMine received 7,500 ETH from BitGo
Arthur Hayes is also buying, 3,298 ETH
Whales are buying in a panicked market
This signal is too obvious
The crash in the Korean stock market is not bad news for crypto; in fact, it is a good thing
Let me explain the logic behind this
South Korean retail investors can be considered one of the most active crypto trading groups in the world
KOSPI fell 8%, meaning their stock positions were losing money
But they won't withdraw money and put it in the bank to earn interest
They will move funds to the crypto market
Because Korean retail investors are very familiar with the crypto world
Upbit's trading volume surges every time after a Korean stock market crash
This isn't speculation—it's based on historical data
The last time Korea triggered the sidecar mechanism,
BTC has seen a premium in South Korea, reaching as high as 5%.
This shows that Koreans are buying in large quantities
Now the same script is being repeated
And this time is different
SK Hynix ADR fell below its issue price
Kioxia plunges 18%
Memory semiconductors collapsed across the board
These funds are withdrawing from semiconductors, and they need to find new exits
Crypto is the outlet
So my judgment is
Short-term panic is real, and BTC may reach 62,000 again
But in the medium term, the inflow of Korean funds will create new buying support
This isn't called bottom-fishing; it's logic-driven
There are a few other hot topics worth discussing today:
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The biggest showdown of the week is actually the early hours of Thursday. Castle Securities says Wash might unexpectedly raise rates, but I think the probability is low. Powell's core logic is whether inflation has come down—oil prices have fallen, inflationary pressures are easing, and there's no reason to force rate hikes.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
ETH validator exit queues have been reduced to zero, which is a previously overlooked positive factor. Previously, due to ETH's sluggish price, many people wanted to exit staking, but now no one wants to withdraw. With validator confidence restored, ETH staking yields will become attractive again.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
Oil prices have fallen, inflation expectations have decreased, and pressure on the Federal Reserve has eased. The entire macro narrative is moving in a positive direction. In the short term, the market is dominated by panic and can't see these things, but by Thursday's Fed meeting, these positive factors will be realized together.
$BTC $ETH #韩国股市 #资金轮动 #宏观📊 $WLD Liquidation Overview
24-hour liquidation reached $2.2643 million, with **long position liquidations at $2.1993 million accounting for 97.1% of the total**, short position liquidations only $64,900, making longs 34 times the shorts. In 1 hour, liquidations hit $11,100 with zero shorts, showing no resistance from the short side; in 4 hours, long liquidations were $1.2571 million (98.3%), indicating a fierce long squeeze; in 12 hours, long liquidations reached $1.7686 million (98.6%), marking the most brutal long squeeze window of the day. Liquidations are concentrated in the 4-12 hour period (79%), with the 24-hour total roughly equal to the 12-hour total, and very limited increase in the latter 12 hours.
In summary: $WLD experiences a concentrated main downtrend wave in 4-12 hours, with longs suffering devastating liquidations and shorts dominating.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 27
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: AI narrative entering the "validation season"—from the valuation frenzy of domestic storage, to the Fed's interest rate decision, to the earnings tests of tech giants.
📈 ChangXin Technology IPO: The 3.66 trillion yuan "domestic substitution" frenzy
On July 27, domestic DRAM leader ChangXin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, surging 471.59% at open, with market cap briefly surpassing 3.66 trillion yuan, overtaking ICBC as the largest A-share by market cap. Expected net profit exceeded 50 billion yuan in H1, with global market share rising from 3% to 8%. However, controversy remains: technology still lags about 2 generations and 3 years behind US and Korean giants. Whether the 3.66 trillion yuan valuation marks the start of a super cycle or a peak is sharply debated. After ChangXin's listing, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropped about 4% intraday.
🏛️ Fed Interest Rate Decision: Rising expectations of a rate hike
The Fed will hold its policy meeting from July 28-29. Economists unanimously expect no change, but interest rate futures price in a 36% chance of a hike. The divergence stems from oil prices—Brent crude has surpassed $100/barrel, with US-Iran tensions pushing up geopolitical risk premiums and inflation pressures rising again. Whether Fed Chair Powell will deliver a "surprise hike" will be revealed early Thursday.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings: AI "burn rate" model under scrutiny
This week, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon release earnings with a shared core question: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue? Google and Tesla have already sounded alarms with their first-ever negative cash flow—AI spending is faster than expected. Whether Microsoft Azure can maintain over 40% growth, Meta's capital expenditure guidance raised to $125-145 billion and whether AI erodes ad profits, and if Amazon AWS growth can exceed 30% will determine if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
💎 Summary
ChangXin Technology's 3.66 trillion yuan valuation is an extreme pricing of "domestic substitution + AI demand"; the Fed's rate decision is a tense game over "whether inflation will return"; tech giants' earnings are the ultimate test of "whether AI spending can be profitable." The AI narrative is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ I opened my phone and saw the news that storage stocks had dropped 20%, and I sat up completely
Not a storage stock
It was that DEEXE fell 25%, and BEAT dropped 24%.
A bunch of blue-chip projects are plummeting
Then guess what
The market dropped by only 3 points, but these altcoins dropped more than 20%.
What does this mean?
Liquidity panic
The crash in the Korean stock market has tightened global liquidity, and the first stop for liquidity overflow is high-risk altcoins
DEX plunged a quarter straight from its peak
BEAT is the same, down nearly 25%.
SHIB, a major meme, also fell by 11%.
Interestingly, Mantis actually rose 66%
You read that right: when the market dropped 3%, M rose 66%
What does this indicate?
The market is not panicking across the board, but rather undergoing internal switching
Funds are withdrawing from established knockoffs and memes and moving toward new narratives
KAITO also rose 9%.
AERO rose 3.8%
PUMP rose 3.2%
These are all stocks that have risen against the trend
What are they rising?
KAITO is a new narrative for AI content platforms
AERO is the DeFi core on the Base chain
PUMP is a meme launch platform
These three directions represent current market preferences—new things, good products, and revenue
So my judgment is
Today is not suitable for copying the decline rankings
Declines like DEXE -25% and BEAT -24% may be a liquidity run
Entering on the first day of liquidity panic to bottom-fish is easy to get buried
Once the panic has subsided, we can look at which stocks have fundamental support
There are a few other hot topics worth discussing today:
#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保
Is Nvidia acting as a guarantor for OpenAI? 250 billion—that's an incredible figure. If this is true, it shows that Nvidia's investment in AI has reached a level where it is willing to pay no worries. The AI track won't cool off, and AI tokens in crypto will be led along.
#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
Open source AI will not be banned; the previous panic selling in the sector may have been excessive. FET fell 10%, and Stacks also dropped more than 8%. If they recover after the news is triggered, these major stocks with larger declines actually have room to catch up.
#财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative?
This week's earnings reports from AI giants will determine whether the risk is on or off. If Microsoft and Meta's data exceeds expectations, the overall market sentiment will recover from panic, and at that time, the stocks that fell the hardest today will also rebound the strongest. Wait until the financial results are out before taking action.
$KAITO $AERO #涨幅榜 #跌幅榜 #山寨季Day 11 of Payback | Current account: 116U
1. Today's Trading Practice Review
Today, I traded SanDisk$SNDK intraday orders
Entry point: 1220
Take-profit level: 1320 | Stop-loss level: 1200
Profit-loss ratio: 1:2.5
2. Market macro
The core of SanDisk's recent decline is the premature overdrawing of the previous stock price, NAND price increases, and expectations of a boom in AI storage. Currently, the pace of flash memory price increases is slowing, and the market predicts that manufacturers' further expansion will bring supply pressure, limiting profit growth potential. Combined with profit-taking from high-level funds, multiple expectations resonated and pushed the stock price to continue pulling back. Key support level is 1200. Although the downward trend at the 2-hour and 4-hour levels is clear, there is still a short-term rebound and recovery. Market rumors suggest the target price has dropped to 900, and this rally requires sustained volume growth to materialize, resulting in a long cycle. There is also the possibility of institutions buying on dips.
3. Self-summary + small plans for tomorrow
1. Recent trading performance has clearly improved, with the account gradually shifting from large losses to modest gains.
2. Significant improvement in holding capacity: Previously, hourly positions were hard to maintain, but now they can hold for 4–5 hours, with the longest holding lasting about 20 hours.
3. Opening strategy: 80% long, 50% short; Reasonably control the profit-loss ratio. Accept a 3/10 loss probability and proactively suspend trading for a few hours after losing two consecutive trades. Strictly set take-profit and stop-loss settings, resolutely avoid holding positions, and abandon the mindset of heavy positions.With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaching, market sentiment is clearly weak.
BTC failed to hold above 65,000, and the 66,000 resistance level remains unbroken. Trading volume has sharply contracted, and the entire market is waiting and watching for the decision.
This recent rally is merely an emotional rebound brought on by easing geopolitical tensions and cannot be considered a trend reversal. ETF funds lack momentum, with a single large daily outflow wiping out a week's net inflows, making the rebound foundation very fragile.
Seventy percent of the market expects interest rates to remain unchanged this time, with the focus on Powell's speech. Rising energy prices hide inflation rebound pressure; if the tone is hawkish, combined with upcoming GDP and PCE economic data, macroeconomic negatives could easily impact the market.
Key support is at 62,500; breaking below this would invalidate the rebound structure, with 60,000 as the critical defense level below.
Options positioning reveals the market's indecision: not fearing a short-term sharp drop, but still pessimistic about the medium to long-term trend.
The market was supposed to choose a direction on Wednesday, but it has weakened prematurely. During this consolidation phase, avoid blindly taking heavy positions.Microsoft Q4 Real Test: How Much Cash Can $627 Billion RPO Convert Into?
Only the final observation window remains before the official FY2026 Q4 release after the U.S. stock market closes on July 29. The market can easily be distracted by Azure's growth rate, but I want to first focus on a huge and easily misinterpreted figure: the previous quarter's commercial Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), which reached $627 billion, a 99% year-over-year increase.
RPO is not this quarter's revenue, nor is it cash. Microsoft explained in the Q3 earnings call that the average duration of RPO, including OpenAI, is about two and a half years, with approximately 25% expected to be recognized as revenue in the next twelve months; excluding OpenAI, commercial orders grew 7%, but including OpenAI, commercial orders actually declined 4%. This difference reminds us not to treat a large long-term contract as immediate operational momentum for the quarter.
For this earnings report, I will break down RPO into three steps. First, check whether core commercial orders excluding OpenAI remain healthy to avoid growth distortion from a single client or ultra-long contracts. Second, see if the short-term recognizable portion is increasing, as it is closer to revenue in the next twelve months. Third, verify whether operating cash flow and deferred revenue keep pace. Last quarter, operating cash flow was $46.7 billion, and free cash flow was $15.8 billion; the gap reflects high capital expenditures, which is exactly the area to track most closely during the AI cycle.
The product side also needs cross-verification. In Q3, Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats exceeded 20 million, with M365 Commercial Cloud revenue growing 19%; GitHub Copilot was used by nearly 140,000 organizations, with enterprise subscribers nearly tripling year-over-year. These are the disclosed figures from the previous quarter. For Q4, the key is whether seat growth can translate into ARPU, usage, and gross margin, rather than just looking at user counts.
If Q4 shows "RPO rising again, Azure meeting targets, and cash flow keeping up," it means the transmission between long-term contracts and actual consumption remains smooth; if RPO looks good but the short-term recognition ratio declines and cash flow is pressured, then valuation enthusiasm should be downgraded. This is not bearish on Microsoft but rather a clear distinction among orders, revenue, and cash at three different stages. Before the official results are released, I will not cite any unofficial forecasts nor treat last quarter's management guidance as completed.
RPO also requires attention to contract duration. When the average term lengthens, the total amount can increase rapidly, but recent revenue conversion may not keep pace; conversely, improvements in short-term RPO and deferred revenue are closer to visible revenue. If the financial statements do not fully break down these figures, the limitations should be noted in the text rather than estimating a precise conversion rate independently.
Additionally, Microsoft's adjusted figures last quarter excluded the impact of OpenAI investments. If the official results provide both GAAP and non-GAAP figures, I will present both side by side, explaining the adjustments rather than only choosing the seemingly better version. Investment income, foreign exchange, and tax rates may affect net profit, but the core judgment remains focused on operating profit and cash flow. The purpose of this approach is to reduce misjudgments caused by headlines, not to pursue a single "good or bad" conclusion.📊 $HYPE **HYPE Quick Commentary — Longs and Bears Tug-Of-War at $57, VC Major Retreat Is the Biggest Variable**
🔥 **Current price $57.25-57.38**, down about 2% in 24 hours, down **24%** from the 6/2 ATH **$75.52** has retraced **24%**. Ranked #9, with a market cap of **$14.47 billion**, down 9.5% in 30 days, but still up **118%** in 200 days.
⚠️ The main driver behind this decline is not fundamentals, but **VC unstaking**. On 7/24, Paradigm withdrew 29.2 million HYPE tokens (about $170 million**), and two days ago, Multicoin also withdrew 1.96 million (about $120 million**), totaling $291 million. Although Multicoin said it was "just a wallet swap, not a sale," the market was skeptical—HYPE plunged directly from $60+ to $57.
Key timing: Unstaking has a **7-day lock-up period**; coins withdrawn in early July can only be transferred out by the end of July. Plus, **there will be another unlock on 8/6**, so short-term supply pressure cannot be ignored.
📉 Technicals: The 4-hour chart has been declining from the high of $72.97, with $58.16 not the bottom. $62-63.5 is strong resistance, and the chance of a rebound to that level is likely to be suppressed.
🟢 But the medium- to long-term logic is not bad:
- Hyperliquid Strategies filed an S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise **$1 billion** to buy more HYPE, currently holding 12.6 million HYPE + $300 million in cash
- RWA trading volume already accounts for **52%** of the platform, expected to reach 75% by 2027—crude oil, silver, and the S&P 500 are all trading on it
- Predict market launches, stake $30 million of HYPE to open a market, earn 50% fees
- The HYPE burn proposal is in voting if all Aid Fund tokens are directly burned
- Platform revenue to **$873 million** in 2025, accounting for **59%+** of DeFi perpetual contract OI
🎯 Summary: In the short term, under the shadow of VC divestment + unlocking, $57 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears. If it falls below $57→ target $55 → $52. Hold $57 and FOMC lean dovish → rebound; first look at $60-62.
**Compared to the previous BEAT/HYPE analysis**, HYPE's fundamentals are actually stronger (RWA data, SEC fundraising, market predictions), but VC withdrawal is a huge variable—if HYPE really hits $291 million, no one can buy it in the short term. Multicoin says it won't sell, so keep an eye on the chain to see if these coins will move after the 7-day lock-up period.$BTC Strategy is shifting its focus to cash reserves
MicroStrategy (referred to as "Strategy" in the filing) has paused its Bitcoin holdings for the fifth consecutive week, marking a shift in its strategic focus to liquidity management rather than immediate expansion. The company sold approximately $544.5 million of its own shares to build dollar reserves, which now total $3.75 billion, enough to cover a 2.1-year dividend obligation. Based on an average purchase cost of $75,476 per Bitcoin, the company's current Bitcoin holdings face significant unrealized losses due to prices approaching $64,800.
For investors, this shows that even aggressive corporate balance sheets prioritize balance sheet safety and debt repayment ability, rather than buying on dips when prices fall below breakeven. Management remains confident, noting that liquidation risk only occurs when Bitcoin plunges to the $8,000 to $10,000 range, but this pause indicates a prudent capital allocation strategy during periods of price stagnation.#波动雷达：币种异动观察
This morning, the South Korean stock market triggered another circuit breaker. The KOSPI index opened with a sharp drop of 5.3%, then the decline quickly expanded to 8%, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism and halting trading for 20 minutes. This is the eighth time the South Korean stock market has triggered a circuit breaker this year. At the same time, the Japanese stock market was not spared, with the Nikkei 225 index falling more than 4%.
The only trigger — semiconductors were hit again.
📉 Trigger: AI “circular financing” concerns crush chip stocks
The direct cause of this decline is renewed market worries about the AI capital expenditure “circular financing” model.
· Hidden risks of massive deals: Reports indicate NVIDIA is involved in AI infrastructure cooperation potentially exceeding $750 billion. The market fears this model heavily depends on downstream customers’ financing ability; if financing conditions change, the entire AI spending chain faces contraction risk.
· Leading stocks hit hard: These concerns caused the semiconductor sector in the U.S. stock market to plunge overnight. As the global semiconductor bellwether, NVIDIA closed down 4.99% on Monday, with its market cap overtaken by Apple. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 5% intraday.
🇰🇷 South Korea: Storage giants lead the decline, circuit breaker triggered again
As a global hub for memory chips, the South Korean stock market took the most direct hit:
· KOSPI index: opened down 5.3%, then dropped further to 8%, closing at 6212.26 points, triggering the circuit breaker.
· SK Hynix: stock price plunged 10%-11%, its U.S. ADR fell below the issue price on Monday.
· Samsung Electronics: stock price plunged 8%-9%.
🇯🇵 Japan: Tech stocks plunge, losses widen
The Japanese stock market was also dragged down by the semiconductor supply chain:
· Nikkei 225 index: fell over 4%, approaching the 62000-point mark.
· Kioxia: as a NAND flash memory giant, it plunged 18% at one point on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
🧐 Behind it all: The “faith” in AI investment is shaking
On the surface, the shock was triggered by earnings reports, but the deeper cause is more alarming — the market’s pricing logic for AI may be changing.
In the past two years, “AI” has been a golden ticket; companies associated with AI could always have massive capital expenditures interpreted by the market as positive. But earnings reports from Google and Tesla have shown the market is starting to question "when will the money burn translate into profits?"
The AI hardware chain represented by NVIDIA is essentially a “the more you earn, the more you burn” model. Once the market begins to doubt whether huge investments can convert into sustainable profits, the entire AI narrative may face revaluation.
💎 South Korea circuit breaker ≠ opportunity
This year, the South Korean stock market has triggered circuit breakers 8 times. For the crypto market, this at least sends two signals:
1. The loosening of the AI narrative is spreading globally from U.S. stocks.
2. Global risk appetite is declining. When institutions start withdrawing from core assets like semiconductors, risk assets overall face pressure.
$NVDA $SNDK I couldn't sleep at 3 a.m., constantly thinking about this matter
The South Korean stock market fell 8%, and Japan fell 4%.
How will US stock futures move tonight?
SK Hynix's ADR has already fallen below its issue price, hitting a new low just days after listing
Then guess what
Bitcoin also fell to 63,115
But the drop wasn't much, just 3 points
What does this indicate?
The linkage between BTC and Asian stock markets is deepening, but the decline is noticeably smaller than that of the stock market
Is this a form of desensitization, or is it just lagging?
I think it's desensitization
Look at the contract data
Binance's Bitcoin contract open interest is $18.9 billion, Bybit $9.5 billion, and Hyperliquid $7.4 billion
This number is similar to yesterday, with no large-scale liquidation or order cancellations
This shows that the bulls haven't been completely liquidated, and the bears haven't increased their positions significantly
Everyone was watching and waiting
Why wait and see?
Because the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision early Thursday morning
This is the real big thing this week
The sharp drop in the Korean stock market is actually not that closely related to the crypto market
People panic because "What if US stocks also fall?"
But what if the US stock market stabilizes tonight?
Citrini analysts say the sell-off in semiconductor stocks like ASML has been excessive
The market has overreacted to China's DUV progress in this matter
If institutions think the same, U.S. stocks may open lower and move higher tonight
Then BTC will rebound accordingly
So my judgment is
Tonight's US stock market performance will determine whether BTC continues to touch 62,000 or returns to 6,400I dug up an address from a giant whale and saw that he did something today that I couldn't understand
Arthur Hayes has started buying ETH again
This time, there are 3,298 coins, equivalent to over 6 million US dollars
This is already the 7,212th ETH he has bought since July 15
Then guess what
When he bought it, ETH was still falling, from 1981 to 1868
If this isn't bottom-fishing, then what is?
Strangely, on the other side, BitMine received 7,500 ETH from BitGo
Four hours ago
Two whales are simultaneously absorbing ETH
One is buying from the open market, the other is transferring from custodians
What does this indicate?
Smart money is quietly accumulating ETH
You know Arthur Hayes, right?
Founder of BitMEX, recognized as a veteran in the market
He never buys randomly
The fact that he bought ETH itself was a signal
And his buying pace was quite interesting—not a shuttle at once, but building positions in batches
Since July 15, there have been 7,212 of them
On average, it amounts to several hundred per day
This pace shows that he is not speculating in the short term, but bullish on ETH's mid-term trend
ETH is currently priced at 1868, nearly 6% below its high of 1981
Arthur Hayes bought at this position, indicating he thought the price was reasonable
On the other side, BitMine received 7,500 ETH from BitGo
BitGo is a custodian, and these transfers are usually used on the chainDamn...
A 26-year-old at Zhifu Management Services Ltd. embezzled HKD 50 million to buy double-leveraged long positions on SK Hynix through Southern Eastspring ETF 😂
ETF (7709) shows a book loss of 150 million. On July 20, he was arrested on suspicion of theft. The position remains open. Zhifu Securities has issued a statement distancing itself.
Everyone in Central Hong Kong is watching the 150 million case.
What I’m watching is another number: January 9 to July 20.
-
A 26-year-old trader allegedly embezzled HKD 50 million from the company as margin, used financing and leverage to buy double-leveraged long SK Hynix ETF through Southern Eastspring, with a book loss of 150 million, and was arrested on suspicion of theft on July 20.
But this ETF only peaked at HKD 193.65 at the end of June, its all-time high.
That means in these seven months, for more than six months,
he was probably making money all along.
He didn’t lose right away.
He won for a long time first, then lost.
This is the harshest part of the whole story.
Losing money never makes people stop; winning does.
The first time he moved money, he made a profit. The second time, he dared to move more.
The account numbers jumped every day. What he thought wasn’t that he was committing a crime, but that he could cover it soon and even make more profit.
Winning gives a rationalization for crossing the line.
When the market reversed, he had no way out.
Closing the position meant admitting guilt; not closing still left hope.
So he could only hold on.
About leverage, most people miss a layer.
Margin financing is the first layer.
Double-leveraged ETF is the second layer.
There’s a third layer many don’t know about.
Leveraged ETFs rebalance daily.
They promise double the daily return, not double over a period.
Meaning in a choppy market, even if the underlying stays flat, your NAV slowly bleeds.
The more volatile the market, the greater the decay.
So this ETF dropping from 193.65 to 52.58, a drop over 72%, is not simply twice the underlying’s drop.
He thought he was running double leverage.
In reality, there’s another layer of leverage silently draining value.
We’re too familiar with this script.
It plays out daily in crypto, just without suits.
Small wins, then add positions, then leverage up, then borrow money, and finally everyone asks the same question: how could he lose his mind?
He didn’t lose his mind.
He was pushed step by step to a dead end by those earlier wins.
One more chilling detail:
That position hasn’t been forcibly closed yet.
He’s already in custody, but the position is still bleeding out there.
No one knows the final loss now.
The issue was only discovered during the company’s audit and account review. The similarly named Zhifu Securities has issued a statement distancing itself, saying the person involved is not their employee.
Peace, not here to blame anyone.
Just want to say one thing:
The scariest thing about leverage is never that it magnifies your losses, but that it first magnifies your gains, making you feel like a genius just when you still have time to stop 🙂100刀入场，现在变成10000刀，我人都傻了
不对，说反了
是账户从高点缩水了，早上起来一看BTC跌到63115，心态有点崩
但仔细想想，这个跌幅其实没那么可怕
BTC从最高65750跌到63100，也就2600刀的空间
然后你猜怎么着
3个多点的跌幅，放在以前牛市的正常回调里，根本不叫事
但今天不一样的是背景
韩国KOSPI跌了8%，日经跌了4%
SK海力士ADR直接破发
这是亚洲股市的系统性恐慌，不是加密自己的问题
BTC今天的走势是典型的被动跟跌
你看成交量，量不大，说明机构没有在恐慌出货
真正有意思的是Arthur Hayes
他今天又买了3298个ETH，这个月累计7212个了
他在逆势抄底
从技术面看，BTC在63000这个位置有支撑
前面几周也是在这个区间反复测试过的
如果跌破63000，下一个支撑在62000
但我觉得不太会
因为今晚美股的走势才是关键
亚洲跌了，如果美股企稳，BTC就能反弹
所以我的判断是
63000附近就是短期底部区域
不用在这个位置割肉，等美股开盘看看方向
正好今天还有几个热点值得一说：
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
周四凌晨的利率决议才是这周最大的变量。城堡证券说沃什可能意外加息，但这个概率不大。如果按兵不动，市场会先跌后涨。如果鹰派表态，BTC可能再探62000。
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？
美股财报季AI巨头的表现直接决定了risk on情绪。如果微软Meta的财报好，市场就会从恐慌中恢复。它们稳住了，BTC和整个加密市场也就稳住了。
#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
开源AI禁令预期降温，对整个科技和AI叙事都是正向的。AI赛道如果好起来，加密里的AI代币也会跟着受益。FET跌了10%，如果情绪反转反而有补涨空间。
$BTC $ETH #技术分析 #美联储 #支撑位I opened my phone and saw that the Korean stock market had dropped by 8%, and I sat up completely
No, what exactly happened in South Korea?
SK Hynix's ADR fell below its issue price, hitting a new low
Nikkei also fell 4%, with Kioxia plunging 18%
Then guess what
BTC then fell to 63,115, down more than 3 points
But I actually find it a bit interesting here
South Korea's KOSPI fell 8%, triggering the sidecar mechanism, and programmatic trading was immediately suspended
This is a circuit breaker-level plunge
In this situation, where will the funds go?
Historical data tells me that when capital flees the Korean stock market, Upbit's trading volume surges
Bitcoin's premium in South Korea will also rebound
Because Korean retail investors are too familiar with crypto, the stock market won't let them make money, so they rush into crypto
Today's logic is simple
Asian stock markets plunge -> funds seek new exports -> crypto is a natural receiving pool
BTC fell in the short term, but in the medium term, this is actually an opportunity for incremental funds to enter the market
Castle Securities said Wash may unexpectedly raise interest rates this week
This is what truly needs attention
If rate hike expectations are ignited, all risk assets will come under pressure
But on the flip side, if rates really do increase, it means the economy is overheating and funds need to hedge safely
BTC's logic as digital gold is actually stronger
So my judgment is
Today's panic in the Asian market is a passive decline, not a credibility crisis within crypto itself
The flight of South Korean funds may actually bring new liquidity to crypto
Holding steady near 63,000, waiting for the Fed to play its card on Thursday
Then I glanced at what recent hot topics were and casually chatted a bit:
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
Changxin Technology is about to go public, adding another player to the storage track. With SK Hynix falling like this, the timing for Changxin's IPO isn't very good. The competitive landscape of storage is changing, but short-term sentiment dominates everything; let's wait and see for now.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
This is the real highlight of the week. Castle Securities said Wash might unexpectedly raise interest rates, and if priced in by the market, there could be another round of volatility before Friday. But I don't think there will be a rate hike; Powell isn't that bold.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
Oil prices have fallen, which is good for inflation. With inflationary pressures easing, the urgency for the Fed to raise interest rates has lessened. Geopolitical risk easing + falling oil prices theoretically is a double positive for risk assets, but the market is currently dominated by panic, and the positive news will take time to transmit.
$BTC $ETH #宏观 #韩国股市 #地缘Before looking at this tweet, ask yourself a question: If all the macro events this week come to pass, are you really sure the direction will emerge?
This week is like a powder keg for the crypto and financial circles, with both bulls and bears crouching around 65,000, neither daring to pull the trigger first. The four major battlefields—Fed rate decision, non-farm payrolls, GDP, and tech giant earnings—are almost simultaneously igniting, yet the market is so quiet it feels abnormal. I just sneaked a peek at the market in the restroom; volume is deliberately shrinking, but prices seem nailed down. This kind of calm often hides a big trap set to hunt liquidity.
I always remain skeptical about the so-called "policy clarity." The market trades on expectations in advance, but expectations can twist and turn to confuse people badly. Most are now betting on a dovish rate decision and weak non-farm data, but I actually think that even if the data fits the script, Bitcoin might first spike one way then reverse sharply. In terms of volume-price relationship, without sustained volume expansion, I treat any breakout as a bull trap.
So this week I choose to stay out of the market, not to jump the gun or gamble. Is there anyone else like me staying out waiting for the right opportunity?
#Bitcoin #MacroWeek #FinancialReportObserver: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Stabilize the AI Narrative?
This earnings season features the three core AI giants: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. The market no longer simply chases "increased computing power investment"; investors are most concerned about one thing: with continuous spending of hundreds of billions to expand computing power, can AI truly deliver profits, and can the story hold up? The three companies have completely different approaches, and their results will directly affect the sentiment of the US tech stock sector and indirectly influence the Bitcoin market.
1. Breakdown of the AI underlying logic of the three companies
1) Microsoft: Smoothest commercialization but cash flow pressure emerges
Key drivers: Azure cloud + M365 Copilot.
The full-year 2026 capital expenditure target is $190 billion, with continued large-scale GPU purchases. The advantage is clear: AI services have already formed stable revenue streams, enterprise customers show strong willingness to pay, and backlog orders are sufficient.
The biggest market test: Can Azure maintain growth in the 39%-40% range?
Risk: Large-scale capital investment squeezes free cash flow. If this earnings report shows a slowdown in cloud business growth or Copilot's paid expansion falls short of expectations, investors will question the return cycle of high computing power investment.
2) Amazon: AWS revival, betting on long-term computing infrastructure
AWS supports various large model enterprise demands; in Q1, AWS growth rebounded to 28%, a three-year high, with a large order backlog.
The most prominent risk: nearly $200 billion in capital expenditure for the year, with extremely tight free cash flow over the past twelve months.
Market concern: Continuous heavy investment in data center expansion—will there be an oversupply of computing power in the future? If demand does not keep pace with new capacity, valuations may come under pressure.
3) Meta: The most unique model and the one with the greatest divergence
Microsoft and Amazon make money by selling cloud computing power externally; Meta's AI investment mainly optimizes short video recommendations and improves ad conversion.
AI is not directly monetized on a large scale externally but empowers the core advertising business. Meanwhile, capital expenditure is continuously raised to $125-145 billion, building massive computing power in-house.
Positive: Advertising cash flow is sufficient to sustain AI R&D;
Negative: Lack of direct AI external revenue data. If ad growth slows, continuous heavy spending on computing power expansion may trigger investor sell-off.
2. Three earnings scenarios linked to the Bitcoin market
Scenario 1: Earnings meet expectations overall, AI-related guidance is stable (neutral baseline)
Azure and AWS growth maintain expectations, Meta's ad revenue is stable, and capital expenditure is not significantly increased.
Market interpretation: AI narrative is temporarily safe.
Market impact: US tech stocks fluctuate and consolidate; Bitcoin maintains its existing range between 64,000 and 66,800, unlikely to break into a one-sided trend.
Scenario 2: Earnings are impressive, AI revenue and orders significantly exceed expectations (slightly positive)
Cloud business growth explodes, commercialization progress exceeds market imagination, and capital expenditure guidance is moderate.
Investor risk appetite rises, growth sectors warm up, driving BTC to test the upper resistance at 66,800.
Reminder from Coin Brother: Beware of buying on expectations and selling on facts; do not blindly chase highs after a big surge.
Scenario 3: Growth falls short of expectations, and capital expenditure is increased (slightly negative)
Revenue slows, profits are pressured, and management announces continued increased computing power investment.
The market will price in a "lengthened AI cash burn cycle and delayed returns," tech stocks collectively pull back, risk aversion rises, Bitcoin is pressured to test support at 64,000; a decisive break will open further downside.
3. Coin Brother's practical views
1) Spot traders
At this stage, do not heavily bet on earnings news. In a volatile market, buy dips in support zones in batches; do not chase highs at resistance; hold long-term base positions to reduce frequent trading fees.
2) Contract traders
Volatility increases during earnings disclosure, with frequent two-way spikes; strictly control leverage and avoid heavy directional bets.
Wait for effective breakthroughs of key support and resistance before trading with the trend; try to stay on the sidelines in the middle of the range to avoid whipsaw losses; always use strict stop-losses.
3) Key signals to watch
Closely monitor capital expenditure guidance, the most sensitive indicator for investors currently. Compared to short-term revenue growth, the market fears giants continuously and endlessly increasing investment, overdrawing future profit potential.Korean stocks have crashed again, and the logic is actually very simple:
Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung, the three major memory manufacturers, have been losing money and controlling production since the bottom of the last cycle at the end of 2022.
The entire industry has almost no new capacity investment from 2024 to early 2025, and coordinated production cuts have directly led to tight DDR4 supply.
After 2025, all three will shift capacity to the higher-margin HBM, meaning traditional DRAM/NAND supply will contract passively, so the overall gross margin of the memory industry is very high.
ChangXin is now the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, currently holding a large amount of cash, and is about to shake things up~$CORE Project team ended up begging in Shanghai and rummaging through trash bins—this phrase is more of a joke for retail investors venting their emotions after being stuck, but behind it lies the reality that their cash flow is getting tighter and they can only survive by selling coins. Let's explain it in two separate layers:
1. Why don't they actually beg?
1. The team's chip costs are zero, continuously monetizing
The team holds a 15% stake and unlocks 315 million tokens linearly, with tens of millions of free CORE tokens arriving every month, which can be sold in batches via quantitative trading at any time to exchange for stablecoins; nearly 200 million tokens from the treasury have long been collateralized to lend tens of millions of dollars in cash flow, holding large amounts of liquidity. Even if the price drops to 0.015, selling a small portion can cover travel, accommodation, and PR expenses. The budget for high-end Shanghai dinners and business trips at various summits has never been broken. Recently, I went to Hong Kong to connect with institutions, so there was no shortage of food.
2. Isolation of offshore overseas funds, with early realization of funds diverted
The project entity is not registered in China, so the USDT earned from the sale will be split and transferred into multiple overseas offshore wallets and custody accounts, not all staked on CORE tokens. Even if token liquidity shrinks later, the funds already cashed out early are enough for the team to maintain a quality of life for several years, and the core core operators at the bottom have already cashed out.
2. The truth behind this teasing sentence: The project's cash flow has long been stretched thin, relying solely on selling coins to keep things going (this is the root of retail investors' complaints).
1. Zero self-operated income in the ecosystem, with no positive revenue at all
The promoted SatPay Bitcoin Bank and the fee buyback flywheel were all delayed, with no scaled merchants and no ongoing fee income, and the entire project lacked the ability to generate revenue. All expenses: paid by paid posters, KOL advertorials, overseas summits, node subsidies, quantitative market-making fees, team salaries, all 100% sustained by selling CORE tokens.
Previously, when coin prices were high, selling a small amount of coins could cover all operations; Now that the coin price has dropped 99.7%, to maintain the same operating scale, more shares must be sold, which means the price drops more and more is being dumped, creating a vicious cycle.
2. Treasury collateral is under pressure, and capital turnover pressure continues to grow
At the end of last year, the treasury allocated 20% of circulating tokens as collateral for loans. If the token price remained low, it could face liquidation risks at any time, forcing the team to keep pledging or selling tokens to repay debts, leaving idle stablecoins available for allocation dwindling.
Now, they've cut back on real investment, reallocating all budgets to PR advertorials and marketing campaigns. Investments in technology iteration and SatPay implementation have been drastically cut. It looks like they're holding grand meetings, but in reality, the funds available for product development have run dry. That's why people joke, 'If you don't have money, you can only make empty promises.'
3. Narrative can only revamp old material; there's no money to launch new projects
Without surplus funds to develop new applications or coordinate with large external institutions, every positive news just repackages last year's "Bitcoin Grid" framework and floods the screen, failing to produce tangible results. It seems that frequent visits to Shanghai and Hong Kong for Web3 events are mostly just free-of-the-industry venues and low-cost business meetings, without large cooperation funding, purely low-cost PR hype.Seeing this screenshot of the position, my first reaction was shocking: all three trades were heavily profitable, $SOXL short position yield soared to 1149%, and crude oil $CL long and $TQQQ short positions also doubled in return. The book profits are very impressive, but don't get carried away just by staring at the profit numbers; the details of this holding hide the two truest sides of trading. Let's first briefly understand these three trades. $SOXL. $TQQQ are all leveraged US stock ETFs, representing the technology sector; $CL is WTI crude oil. Traders are betting on two major events simultaneously: bearish on high-leverage US tech stocks and long on crude oil. Essentially, it's betting on macro logic: geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices, tech sectors weakened under pressure, all three orders hit the main market line, macro judgment was completely correct, and huge unrealized gains were made. Many people, seeing returns over a thousand percent, immediately think: I want to replicate this kind of achievement. But most people overlook a fatal detail: the margin ratio for all three positions is only 0.74%. In fact, to put it bluntly, luck is on his side now, and the market is racing along the direction he opened positions, so he's making a fortune. But the account safety cushion is almost nonexistent. 10x cross-margin leverage compresses the margin for error to the extreme. It's like speeding off a cliff, downhill all the way, running fast. But as long as the steering wheel is slightly off, the market can rebound sharply in the opposite direction. There is no need for an extreme bull market; a normal technical correction can directly trigger a forced liquidation. The more you earn now, it doesn't necessarily mean#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, with the chair's press conference at 2:30 AM. First, the consensus within the community: maintaining the current interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% is the baseline expectation, but don't assume the result is fixed without any volatility.
Currently, the Middle East conflict is pushing up oil prices, inflation is rising again, and market expectations for rate hikes have quietly increased. CME data shows a 36% probability of a rate hike. Remember one key point: the numbers themselves are not important; the wording, attitude toward inflation, and policy guidance for September are the core factors influencing the market.
Additionally, this meeting will not update the dot plot; all the bullish and bearish battles will focus on the press conference speech, with likely volatility concentrated in the latter half.
Three major scenarios directly corresponding to the BTC market:
Scenario 1: Baseline expectation (maintain rates, neutral to slightly hawkish tone, highest mainstream probability)
Core signal: Acknowledge inflation risks remain, keep the option for future rate hikes, no signals of rate cuts.
Market performance: Short-term oscillations continue, existing range pattern persists. Bitcoin will continue to tug between 64,000 and 66,800, making it difficult to break into a sustained one-sided trend.
Scenario 2: Unexpectedly hawkish (maintain rates but strongly emphasize fighting inflation, do not rule out future hikes)
Core signal: Highlight inflation pressure from rising crude oil prices, directly dispelling any expectations of rate cuts this year.
Market reaction: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise, risk assets collectively under pressure. BTC tests 64,000 support; if support breaks effectively, further downside toward the 62,000 range is expected.
Scenario 3: Slightly dovish and positive (maintain rates, acknowledge inflation easing, signal easing expectations)
Core signal: Downplay inflation threat, hint at room for rate adjustments later.
Market reaction: Market risk appetite warms, BTC challenges strong resistance at 66,800; only by holding above this level can a new round of rebound space open.
✅ Key reminder from Coin Brother: The market is used to buying the rumor and selling the fact. Even if the result leans dovish, if the positive impact is less than what funds expect, a spike followed by a drop is very likely. Avoid blindly chasing the rally.
BTC short-term key levels:
Support: 62,600 — 63,000 (short-term bull lifeline)
Resistance: 66,000 — 66,800
Coin Brother's practical approach:
1. Spot traders
Before the decision lands, avoid heavy bets on direction. Be patient in the choppy market waiting for the news; on bearish dips to support zones, consider phased entries; near upper resistance, refuse to chase highs. Continue holding long-term base positions, reduce frequent trading to save on fees.
2. Futures traders
Volatility will sharply increase during the early morning hours, with frequent two-way spikes. Strictly avoid high leverage heavy bets.
Best plan: proactively reduce positions before the news.
Go long if it holds above 66,800; follow short if it breaks below 64,000; try to stay on the sidelines in the middle of the range to avoid whipsaw losses. Always set strict stop losses; do not hold losing positions.
3. Extra attention to correlated signals
Closely monitor U.S. tech stocks and Treasury yields; U.S. stock sentiment will synchronously influence Bitcoin fund preferences.
Coin Brother summary:
This rate decision will not directly start a big bull or bear market but is very likely to break the long-standing choppy consolidation. The biggest trading trap is subjective pre-judgment of bulls or bears.
The best strategy: wait for the news, clearly see the Fed's true stance, then follow the trend. In the late consolidation phase, controlling your hands and position size is far more important than betting on ups or downs. 怎么没人说倒霉熊重新开拍后
主角居然是我啊😭
闪迪大饼这两波把我家底都要跌没了，扒了好久才知道自己怎么死的
中国长鑫存储那个 IPO 一出来，CXMT 盘子直接把市场情绪带歪了，外面又冒出来国产 DUV 设备量产的消息，芯片资金一下子全往后缩，闪迪这种存储票也跟着被按在地上摩擦
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
我可是昨天盘前接的$SNDK 啊😭😭
结果人还没坐稳，盘先给我看傻了
真是买在了最吵的时候，挨在了最狠的时候
后面想着美股猛猛砸盘的时候加密的抗跌还挺强，晚上我又 c2c 回来补了点$BTC 和$ETH
结果更离谱，CLARITY Act 那边传出夏季休会前大概率赶不上窗口，市场本来就脆，这一下直接把情绪再往下拽一截，BTC 早上也跟着冷不丁来了一脚，像是专门挑我刚进场的时候动手
昨天闪迪跌成狗，今天 BTC 又给我整一个爆砸
我现在开始怀疑人生了
不是市场太坏
是我每次开了多市场才会跌的😭😭
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过