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Reflecting on Sandisk's experience holding the position this time, the biggest mistake started around 1330, which was the previous low stop-loss not being triggered, causing the position to deepen more and more. Initially, a small initial position of 0.5 was opened around 1500, just to observe volatility. The real initial position was placed around 1400, 1380, with orders set, planning to place stop-loss at the previous low and exit if broken. At that time, I planned to monitor the market at night and did not set a stop-loss on the order, thinking I would manually stop loss. But what happened was on the night of Changxin's IPO during the US market open, the price plummeted sharply, and manual stop-loss was not even possible. Within 30 minutes, the price dropped like a needle. Because I thought to manually stop loss and did not set a stop-loss on the order, the holding began. The price broke the previous low by dozens of points near 1280. I thought since the previous low was broken and the initial sharp drop was so big, there would be some rebound. This lucky mindset started a continuous 16% decline, breaking through 1200, 1100, and the position deepened more and more. The deeper it got, the less I wanted to cut losses. The little trading discipline I had established was completely replaced by unwillingness and luck mentality. Mindset and discipline still need refining. As of today, the price broke below 1000, and I no longer hold illusions. Locked a small position at 1050 to lower the liquidation price, currently around 750. It looks safe, but according to the pace of these days, it is not safe at all. South Korea, US stocks, AI bubble, capital flight, and the continuous stampede caused by Changxin's impact will cause a spiral death stampede in Korean and US tech stocks. Maybe soon, we really won't see the three giants above a thousand yuan, but it will take time. Hopefully, during this period, I can successfully exit this position. Made in China will definitely change the storage landscape. Currently, after the market digests the impact of Changxin and the capital flight caused by the AI bubble, there will be a short-term rebound, but it won't be too high. Hopefully, it will allow me to get out of the position. In the mid-term, the four-party pattern will stabilize a bit, Changxin's share in storage will continue to increase, impact will grow, and in the future, storage will be reshuffled. So, rebound, stabilize, decline 📉, a short-term review and analysis, just for commemoration and warning. Still must strictly adhere to trading discipline. Long positions and adding on the left side are big taboos. Follow the trend and strictly enforce discipline.Profits soared 557%, stock price plunged 19%—the market finally said to AI: not enough
Guess what kind of financial report a company must deliver to satisfy the market?
SK Hynix said: Revenue grew by 257%, operating profit surged by 557%, and net profit soared by 1242%.
All three indicators are at record highs.
Quarterly profits exceeded the entire year of last year.
And then?
During the session, it plunged as much as 19.3%, marking the largest single-day drop in history.
From the historical high in June, it has dropped 57% cumulatively. Its market value evaporated by over $500 billion.
Tell me, this is what you call 'performance'?
This is called "the better the performance, the worse the death."
Do you know anyone like this?
Looking at the financial report, profits have jumped 557%, and I thought, "Why not rush in?" ”
Rushing in, losing 20% after three hours.
He was completely stunned.
"Is 557% still not enough?"
Not enough. Because the market is not waiting for 557%.
The market is waiting for 64 trillion won. You only gave 60.5 trillion.
A 3.5 trillion yuan gap—about a 5% gap—resulted in a 19% plunge.
Even more ironically, why did SK Hynix "fall short of expectations"?
Because HBM sold too much.
You read that right—the AI storage leader, because it focused too much on AI storage, missed the price increase dividend of traditional storage.
The bulk of current industry profits comes from soaring prices of general-purpose DRAM and NAND. SK Hynix's HBM proportion is too high, and its general product exposure is not large enough, so it benefits from price increases less than others.
Meanwhile, the increase in memory chip prices in Q2 has clearly slowed — GM DRAM rose 30% quarter-on-quarter, compared to 60% in Q1; NAND rose 50%-55%, with a 70% increase in the first quarter.
Even more critically, it signed too many long-term agreements with customers, locking in prices and sacrificing the elasticity of the spot market.
In short: HBM sold too much, long-term contracts signed too early, and price increases were too slow.
AI's darling, bitten by AI's backlash.
Then look at the entire market—
On July 28, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.03%.
SanDisk fell over 16%, Western Digital dropped over 14%, and Micron dropped nearly 11%.
The entire storage sector was collectively hit hard.
Interestingly, Seagate Technology bucked the trend after its earnings report, as its near-line hard drive capacity has already been locked in through 2028.
On one hand, record-breaking performance was being dumped; on the other, production capacity was grabbed and still sought after three years later.
Within the same industry chain, at the same point in time, the pricing logic is completely torn apart.
Here's something to say to the heart:
A 557% profit growth is just a "benchmark" in Wall Street's eyes.
Exceeding the limit is what should be done.
If you don't exceed the limit, you're trash.
The market has already priced everything AI in. What you hand over isn't a surprise, it's a debt repayment.
Since June, SK Hynix's market value has evaporated by over $500 billion—more than the GDP of many countries, simply because the "expectations" didn't match.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
First, the peak of AI storytelling has passed.
Storage chips are the lowest layer of AI hardware. When the bottom-tier leaders begin to collapse due to "falling short of expectations," the valuation restructuring of the entire AI hardware sector is only just beginning.
Second, funds are rotating from hardware to software and crypto sectors.
On July 28, while AI hardware plummeted, crypto-related stocks became one of the biggest gainers—funds shifted from chips and AI infrastructure to crypto assets.
Third, but don't get too happy too soon.
SK Hynix's plunge has crashed the entire Korean stock market—the KOSPI index has dropped over 12%, triggering a circuit breaker.
When global liquidity contracts due to the bursting of the AI bubble, Bitcoin will not remain unaffected.
The last sentence:
A 557% profit was traded for a 19% decline.
The market tells AI one thing: you are good, but not good enough.
This statement will eventually be said to Bitcoin as well.
$SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG $XSKHY
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations $HYPE Bullish reports and on-chain offloads—I'm familiar with this round of institutional trading—when all the good news is out, they run faster than anyone else.#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations
SK Hynix's financial report this quarter is explosive in its numbers.
Revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 257% year-on-year; Operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%; Net profit was 93.92 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 1242%. All three items hit a single-quarter record, with an operating profit margin reaching 76.3%. In any industry, that's astronomical.
Then it fell 9% in after-hours trading, and then another 9%. The Korean stock market plunged sharply, with KOSPI down over 4% and SK Hynix itself down more than 7%. On the Hong Kong side, Southern went double long, while SK Hynix fell more than 17%. The US storage sector also collapsed, with Kioxia ADR and SanDisk dropping more than 14%.
Where did the problem lie? Expectations run too fast. The market expects revenue of 84 trillion won and operating profit of 64 trillion won. The actual difference between 79.32 and 60.54 is about 5% to 6%. Because of this 5% to 6%, the market exploded.
The funniest part is SK Hynix's own explanation—HBM accounts for too much weight, which actually drags down the average selling price. HBM is all long-term contract price-locking, so in the short term, it won't benefit from DRAM spot price increases. While others are riding the price dividend, SK Hynix's ASP is actually behind its peers because of its high proportion of high-end products. A company that relies on HBM for its livelihood has actually been held back by HBM.
But the fundamentals really aren't the problem. HBM4 has already begun large-scale shipments, with a $500 billion order secured from Nvidia. Long-term agreements were signed with 10 clients. HBM4 supply needs to expand further in the second half of the year. The CEO said the shortage could last until 2030. Citigroup is calling for a buy, with Micron's target price at 1600.
The market is fearing another thing—how much longer AI capital spending can last? SanDisk's stock price was halved in July, and SK Hynix has pulled back nearly 40% from its June high. This is not a matter of performance, but of expectations and valuation. A company earning 60 trillion yuan in a quarter will be shown by the market when it says "not enough." In the storage industry, the fiercer the upward cycle, the more vulnerable the expectations are when expectations are maxed out. Performance is still hitting new highs, but the market's patience has already peaked ahead of fundamentals.#美联储即将公布利率决议
The market's current focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to interest rate market pricing, the probability of a rate hike is about 35%, while Polymarket prices it around 25%. I see three possible scenarios:
1. If there is no rate hike in July, Wash's subsequent speech will likely be hawkish, making a September rate hike almost certain. According to the pattern, at least two hikes are needed, so that would mean hikes on 9/16 and 10/28. Although the market may rebound in the short term, it will live in fear for the next few months, which is very unfavorable for the midterm elections.
2. If there is an unexpected rate hike in July, a second hike in September is very likely. Although this is a huge short-term negative for the stock market and may cause a final drop, completing the hikes quickly within a month and a half means short pain is better than long pain, allowing the market to bottom out faster, which is beneficial for the midterm elections. Also, the market is already at the bottom, so the impact of the hike is not that significant. Additionally, a 50 basis point hike leaves room for rate cuts next year, and if inflation data declines by year-end, it can fuel expectations for rate cuts next year.
3. No hike in July, and if inflation data declines by September, continue no hikes, relying solely on hawkish talk to suppress inflation. This seems good but is very risky and can easily backfire. The market remains in fear of the "boot not yet dropped" scenario, which Powell experienced once in 2021. I think this scenario is unlikely.
Looking at the market:
Bitcoin $BTC dipped to 62.5K on Tuesday but found buying support and quickly rebounded to 63.8K, with short-term support holding. Leveraged long positions were heavily liquidated (over 670 million in liquidations), releasing selling pressure and stabilizing the market temporarily. ETF inflows are minimal, semiconductor stocks plunged, suppressing risk appetite, but falling oil prices provide a bottom buffer. $ETH's movement is almost identical. Currently, before the FOMC decision, bulls and bears are deadlocked, expecting narrow-range oscillation while awaiting policy clarity.#HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week
On-chain monitoring shows that multiple institutions have successively unstaked their HYPE, causing tokens to flow into exchanges, with the market under continuous pressure, and a cumulative drawdown of nearly 10% over the past week.
≠ the uncollateralization was immediately sold off, but the chips shifted from locked positions to free circulation, naturally creating expectations of selling pressure in the market. This round is not limited to a single whale move; multiple well-known institutions have successively adjusted their holdings, and signals of profit-taking have emerged concentrated.
There are two core reasons behind the market downturn: huge gains in the early stages, with substantial profits; HYPE's gains in the first half of the year were impressive, many early-stage institutions had very low holding costs, and after the rally, there was a need to cash out. Once leading funds start reducing their positions, it will quickly shake the confidence of the market bulls.
Market sentiment has become cautious
Currently, overall capital is on the defensive, and the rotation of hotspots is accelerating. Funds are no longer willing to hold onto these sector coins long-term; whenever there is a large change in holdings, funds prioritize avoidance and exit.
Let me share my independent judgment: rationally distinguishing signals, short-term selling pressure comes from institutional rebalancing and cashing out, which does not mean the Hyperliquid ecosystem has completely weakened; the fundamentals of the trading track remain competitive.
Key risk reminders
Don't rush to bottom-fish, gamble for a rebound. Before institutional share reduction expectations are digested, the weak and volatile pattern is difficult to quickly reverse. Ongoing follow-up: Whether there are more chips to keep depositing on the exchange.
Avoid short-term chasing long positions and wait for selling pressure to fully release. For tokens with large-scale token unlocking, the profit-loss ratio will continue to decline, so participation requires greater caution.Just a few hours ago, Apple's stock price hit $342.89 intraday, with its market value briefly surpassing $5 trillion. Although it closed at $340.08, with a market value just below $5 trillion, Apple still firmly held the top spot globally. So far this year, Apple's stock price has risen about 25%, outperforming most tech giants. It sounds like another routine "record-breaking giant" news, but breaking it down, the signals behind it may be more noteworthy than the surface: while everyone is burning money to compete in AI, Apple is taking a completely different path. Microsoft, Google, Amazon—tech giants are pouring tens of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure, and doubts about whether AI capital expenditure can translate into profitability are growing in the market. Japanese and Korean semiconductor stocks collapsed, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged, and Nvidia and AMD collapsed across the board...... The entire market is re-examining the logic behind "AI burning money." What about Apple? With relatively low capital expenditure, a clear terminal AI strategy, and a stable service ecosystem, it has become a safe haven for capital in this AI narrative shift. For the capital market, the core of this story is that after AI's "infrastructure phase" ends, the application layer that truly reaches users and generates cash flow will be the winners in the next phase. Apple happens to be in this position. Besides AI, several recent moves by Apple are also worth noting: it has been approved to cooperate with Alibaba and Baidu, launching the Apple Intelligence hardware leasing program "Upgrade" in China, further binding usageThe Federal Reserve is meeting today. Tomorrow, they will keep interest rates unchanged—there will be no unexpected hikes.
For decades, the Fed has never shaken the market with unexpected interest rate changes. They will send signals in advance. Everything is about predictability.
For private market operators, interest rate stability means transaction structures remain consistent, debt costs can be estimated in advance, and exit paths can be modeled without being affected by interest rate volatility.
Bored? Yes. But for planning, it's definitely a good thing.
#美联储即将公布利率决议 $BTC $ETH #美联储即将公布利率决议
Only a few hours remain until the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision.
Currently, CME data shows about a 69.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged and about a 30.5% probability of a 25BP rate hike.
According to Bank of America statistics, since 1994, the Fed has never chosen to raise rates when the market's expected probability of a hike was below 60%.
In other words, if a rate hike does happen tonight, it would be a very rare "surprise event" in nearly 30 years.
But compared to whether rates go up or not, I think the market cares more about another issue.
Will Waller continue to lean hawkish?
In recent weeks, Trump has been publicly calling for rate cuts to lower financing costs and stimulate the economy; on the other hand, oil prices have fallen back from above $90, easing inflation pressures compared to earlier.
This means the Fed no longer faces the same inflation pressure it did a few weeks ago.
At the same time, the U.S. labor market remains resilient, AI investment enthusiasm has not noticeably cooled, and the Fed similarly lacks sufficient reason to send strong easing signals now.
So I am more inclined to expect this outcome tonight:
Rates remain unchanged, but the wording stays cautious.
It won’t explicitly tell the market "rate cuts are coming soon," nor will it strongly signal more hikes, but will continue to emphasize "future data will determine policy."
Many like to bet on the rate decision, but my experience over the years has been quite the opposite.
What really moves the market is often not those 25 basis points, but a few words in the press conference.
A phrase like "inflation has made further progress" could quickly lift tech stocks.
A phrase like "restrictions still needed" could cause risk assets to collectively pull back.
Especially after forward guidance has been weakened, the market will focus more on the Chair’s descriptions of the economy, employment, and inflation rather than fixed wording in the statement.
As for my position, I still choose to wait.
Not because I’m bearish, but because I don’t want to bet on news.
After going through many FOMCs, I increasingly feel that making money on certainty is more important than gambling on one night’s ups and downs.
If the market confirms a dovish tilt after the meeting, there will be many opportunities to participate in AI, tech stocks, and crypto assets; if an unexpectedly hawkish stance appears, holding cash can give better buying opportunities.
Sometimes, being out of the market is not a lack of opinion, but waiting for the market to write the answer.
Tonight, I’m most focused on three signals:
* Whether the Fed continues to emphasize inflation risks;
* Whether Waller’s description of the future rate cut path changes;
* The market’s initial reaction to the press conference—whether risk appetite rises or high rates are re-traded.
I think the answers to these three questions are more likely to determine the direction of U.S. stocks, the AI sector, and the crypto market in August than the rate hike itself. The Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision. At 2 AM tonight, this will be the most unpredictable FOMC of the Powell era. The Fed will announce the rate decision, and Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 AM.
Current CME pricing: 69.5% probability of holding steady at 3.50%–3.75%, 30.5% probability of a 25bp rate hike.
My judgment:
The baseline scenario is no change + a hawkish-leaning statement + 2 dissenting votes. JPMorgan assigns a 50% probability to this combination, while Kalshi/Polymarket have about a 33% bet on 2 dissenting votes.
Powell himself dislikes forward guidance; in June, the statement was cut from 340 words to 130 words, and this press conference will most likely continue to avoid giving a clear path — which is more frustrating for 24-hour BTC/ETH trading than whether rates go up or not, because option implied volatility is already maxed out, and the cost to hedge against a surprise rate hike is at an all-time high.
Looking back at June: no rate change but the dot plot turned hawkish and forward guidance was scrapped, BTC dropped nearly 3% breaking below 64,000, ETH fell nearly 4%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield jumped to 4.14%.
The pattern is straightforward: the decision itself is often priced in; the real market mover is the statement wording + number of dissenting votes + the chair’s tone. If tonight:
• 0–1 dissenting votes + Powell says "wait for data" → dovish surprise, BTC likely to rebound and test resistance
• 2 dissenting votes (baseline) → hawkish-leaning statement, initial spike then volatility, ETH may hold up better than BTC (staking yield narrative)
• 3 or more dissenting votes or a direct 25bp hike → low probability but critical, BTC will test recent support, ETH/BTC may crash, leveraged long liquidations cascade
My own pre-market moves:
• No directional bets ahead of time; from 2:00–2:45 AM, only place pending orders and wait for the spike, no manual chasing📌 实盘声明 BTC现货长持 + 指数基金定投，不碰合约杠杆。今日新闻不改变现有仓位计划。 --- 867美元砸崩上亿仓位：Hyperliquid预言机事件全解析 一笔867美元的成交，砸崩了Hyperliquid上上亿美元的仓位。 韩国NXT盘前市场流动性极差，一笔仅成交1股约867美元的SK海力士订单把股价瞬间砸低近30%，触发停牌。Hyperliquid上SKHX永续合约的预言机参考韩国市场韩元价格换算美元，异常价格被同步传导到链上，SKHX一度跌17.9%，大量高杠杆多单被清算。 这不是SK海力士基本面出问题，是：盘前流动性太薄+异常低价成交+预言机直接传导+链上高杠杆集中=跨市场连环爆仓。 SKHX是HIP-3第三方部署市场，市场部署方负责预言机来源和参数。责任不能全归Hyperliquid底层，也不能全怪用户。 赔偿？如果韩国那笔成交被认定有效，预言机按规则更新，平台大概率认为清算正常。但如果成交被撤销、预言机引用了异常价格、或没执行异常价格保护，用户就有理由要求补偿。 当867美元可以撬动上亿美元仓位，真正脆弱的不是市场，是整套价格传导机制。链上股票本质是预言机+合约+The early morning liquidation wave has taught the market another lesson!
FOMC decision implemented, Bitcoin is battling at the $64,000 mark—is it a rebound or a trap?
Today, the crypto market experienced a technical correction, with Bitcoin climbing back above $64,000 and Ethereum simultaneously surpassing $1,916. In the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidation across the network reached $399 million, with short sellers facing large-scale liquidations.
From a macro logic perspective, the Fed's unchanged stance aligns with most expectations and eased extreme market panic. However, the market is currently facing multiple pressures: on one hand, the probability of congressional passage of the Clarity Act within the year has dropped to 35%, delaying regulatory implementation expectations; On the other hand, the traditional liquidity off-season in August and September combined with a pullback in AI tech stocks has left risk appetite fragile.
Technically, Bitcoin remains below the 200-day moving average, and the current rebound resembles a resistance test during a bear market cycle. Against the backdrop of a lack of incremental funds and clear fundamental catalysts, the market is highly likely to maintain wide fluctuations. Investors are advised to remain cautious, focus on the breakout direction in the 62,000-66,000 range, and avoid blindly leveraging at the high level of the "fear index."
#新手必看: Everything you need is here for $BTC $AMD $XAMD Mama Su, save your stocks 🥲
On Tuesday, July 28, 2026, AMD was hit hard by a collective sell-off in the global semiconductor sector.
1. Market review
Stock Performance: AMD's closing price that day was $454.62, down about 8.15% from the previous trading day.
Trading Range: Opened at $467.00, dipped intraday to a low of $442.27, indicating heavy selling pressure in the market.
Market Cap Change: The day's decline brought AMD's market cap down to about $741.3 billion.
2. Core reasons for the decline
AMD's decline is not a negative news for a single company, but rather the result of macro market de-risking the entire semiconductor and AI sectors:
Concerns about AI investment returns: The market is anxious about whether tech giants' massive capital expenditures (Capex) on AI infrastructure will provide sufficient cash flow returns. Recent reports of negative free cash flow from some major giants (such as Alphabet and Tesla) have heightened investors' concerns about an AI bubble.
Pressure from China's technological competition: Recent reports on technological progress in China's semiconductor industry—including memory manufacturers and lithography equipment—have raised concerns that Western chip manufacturers will face greater challenges in cost and market share, undermining long-term growth expectations for chip stocks.
Sector rotation and profit-taking pressure: Over the past two years, the semiconductor sector has accumulated huge gains, with valuations at historic highs. When market sentiment shifts, institutional investors tend to lock in profits, and this "crowded trading" liquidation effect has led to a global simultaneous decline.
3. Technical aspects and market sentiment
Support Testing: AMD's stock price has been steadily declining recently, repeatedly testing the key psychological support level of $450 during trading. Technically, momentum indicators indicate the sector has entered a relatively fragile adjustment phase, and investors are closely monitoring whether main funds can provide support at the current level.
Industry resonance: Not only AMD, but the entire Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) and its components fell almost across the board that day. This is a broad sector correction, rather than a specific negative impact on AMD.
In summary: AMD's current decline is part of the market's "price reassessment" of the AI growth story. Although the long-term logic of AI demand persists, in the short term, the market will focus more on whether companies can demonstrate cash flow stability and technological competitiveness in a challenging macro environment. The crosshair in the scope has locked onto the bullet's trajectory—SK Hynix's quarterly report shows a 557% profit increase, looking like a long-range headshot. But the timing was off—a deviation of 4 trillion won, like aiming at the center of the Tenth Ring but landing on the Ninth Ring. The market's response was very honest: first a sharp drop, then a rebound, with a 4% bullish candlestick swallowing all doubts. What does this indicate? This indicates that the stop-loss orders below the sniper level have been cleared out, and the main funds are still increasing their positions.
HBM4 began shipping, with supply contracts locked in for five years. This is true heavy ammunition. On the battlefield of the AI arms race, whoever controls high-bandwidth memory controls the ammunition supply line. SK Hynix's HBM proportion is higher than its peers, meaning it gets less of the pie from the traditional memory price hike cycle, but in the long run, it is betting on a long-term battle for AI computing clusters. It's like when I'm on a mission, I don't care about a single shift in wind speed; I focus on the long-term penetration path of the target area.
XMETA also carries AI and storage fuzes. Is today's trend following the rise or an independent breakout? It is important to observe its historical volatility range. If SK Hynix's rebound can hold firm over the next three trading days, then the window for XMETA to target will open. But I won't pull the trigger now—the profit-loss ratio isn't in place yet. I want to wait for it to step back to the previous latent zone, confirm the support level, then place a stop-loss on a trade outside the lower five rings to bet on a long-term breakout.
Management's statements have eliminated the greatest uncertainty: no slowdown in AI spending. It's as if intelligence confirms the target is still in place and hasn't shifted. Now, the only thing left to do was wait for the best wind direction and breathing intervals.ETH is currently hovering around $1,900. Can you imagine? Once interest rates fall and the Clarity Act takes effect, the situation will completely reverse. For ETH, this is a very strong bullish signal. We may eventually witness ETH breaking through the $10,000 mark. Of course, this is just my personal market prediction and not investment advice.If you're a new retail investor and see the name $EUL, you might be confused. But veteran players know this guy has a pretty high status in the DeFi community. EUL, the governance token of Euler, a well-established lending protocol on Ethereum. Simply put, it's a decentralized bank—you can deposit money on it to earn interest, or use it as collateral to borrow money for other purposes. There are no middlemen, everything runs automatically through smart contracts. Back when DeFi was at its peak, it was considered a top-tier blue chip. But what truly made EUL go viral was the shocking heist in 2023. The hackers siphoned off nearly $200 million in one go, leaving the entire DeFi community stunned. Although the team later patched the loopholes, improved governance, and recovered most of the money, the label of "having had an accident" was tattooed on the forehead. Plus, the DeFi sector has been cooling off for over half a year, and EUL's price has been like a slide, dropping all the way to the point of having no friends. Then today, this old guy who was almost forgotten by the market suddenly surged with volume and surged, directly climbing the gainers' chart. It's not that DeFi suddenly became super popular, but that the money has nowhere to go. The logic behind this isn't actually complicated. Look at the recent market: AI has been hyped for a while, MEME has gone wild several times, and these hot themes are now valued high, leaving those chasing the highs feeling uneasy. Funds in the market are always the smartest—when they dare not buy things from the highs, they naturally start rummaging through boxes and cabinets looking for bargains. Flipping through leads to DeFi. These old blue chips have been falling for months, prices are lying flat on the floor, chips are clean, nothing much$AXTI
Price action is trading around 41.04, sitting below dynamic MA5 (45.33), MA10 (48.73), and MA20 (50.01).
EP
39.50 - 41.50
TP
45.33
48.73
50.01
SL
38.00
Price faced intense selling pressure, dropping to test swing low support at 39.24. Reclaiming dynamic MA5 (45.33) is key for setting up an initial corrective bounce toward higher supply zones.
Let's go $AXTI
#USIranCeasefireBreaks #OpenSourceAIDebate #ClarityActBankPush History repeatedly proves: South Korea is always the first crisis warning indicator
Reviewing three rounds of major global financial risks, the South Korean market always fell in advance, followed by a global market crash
1. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: The Korean won plunged first, KOSPI plummeted 76%, foreign exchange reserves were exhausted, and 12 trading days later the US stock market officially broke down, triggering a global bear market;
2. 2000 Internet Bubble Burst: South Korea's semiconductor sector peaked and declined 3 months in advance, followed by a 78% plunge in the Nasdaq, completely bursting the tech bubble;
3. 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Korean stocks began a sharp decline in July, and one and a half months later Lehman Brothers collapsed, causing the global financial system to collapse.I no longer have any illusions 📉 about storage
My judgment is straightforward: this round of semiconductors will most likely fall back to the starting rally range seen in March. For SanDisk, I still look at around $600.
It was originally driven up rapidly by capital and sentiment in the past few months. Compared to half a year ago, real demand hasn't grown by the same magnitude, and stock prices have already exhausted too much of expectations.
I've already cut the storage line and won't go long easily in the future.
There may be a rebound in the first half of the decline, because some people believe the market isn't over and see every big drop as a bottom-fishing opportunity. But in the middle and later stages, confidence and liquidity are worn down, and the rebound only gets weaker.
When emotions drive a market, once the emotions dissipate, it's most likely to return to where it came from.
Of course, SanDisk 600 is just my personal judgment and doesn't mean it will definitely arrive. But until the trend truly reverses, I won't go back to cash in just because of one or two bullish rebounds 😀😀😀
$SNDK $MU $SKHY $SNDK SanDisk Market Analysis [7.29 Daytime Pre-Market]
⚠️ Risk warning: Market logic is only based on market logic and does not constitute investment advice. Stockpiling for high-volatility stocks with long cycles, crowded long positions are being liquidated on a large scale; FOMC decision at 02:00 Beijing time is implemented, with US Treasury yields and Fed speeches as the primary core variables, resulting in extremely high volatility.
#美联储即将公布利率决议
Current market status
Overnight, SanDisk plunged sharply in the US session, dropping 14.25% in a single day to close at $1,096.1, with an intraday low of $1,050.72. After a phase high, the pulldown nearly halved, reflecting a concentrated profit-taking in AI storage trading + supply expectations repricing driven by Changxin Technology's listing + FOMC pre-aversion for risk-averse measures, all of which resonated with the market.
Overall characteristics: Index divergence, Dow Jones resilient to declines, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor SOX Index closed sharply, and the memory sector collectively declined; Funds shifted from the high-growth cycle hardware stocks to the value dividend sector, showing a clear sector seesaw rally.
Pre-market trading volume remained high, institutional chips continued to compete, and retail investors entered the market with bottom-fishing funds; No standalone stock rally, tied to SOX semiconductor index + US Treasury yields.
Underlying fundamentals: NAND and enterprise SSD demand has not completely collapsed, but the market has begun trading expectations of increased forward supply and a downward slope in the price hike cycle; With the August earnings report approaching, funds are preemptively hedged against uncertainty risks.
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1. Core Driving Framework
Macro (highest weighting, FOMC decision sets direction)
SNDK is a high-β semiconductor cyclical stock, highly sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields
- Dovish scenario: rates remain unchanged, downplaying expectations for a rate hike in September, and Treasury yields retreat; SOX index recovers, SanDisk experiences a retaliatory rebound;
- Neutral scenario (highest benchmark probability): Rates remain unchanged, but the September rate hike option is retained; After a pulse rebound, the price rises and then pulls back; the rebound is a window for reducing positions, making it difficult to directly reverse and bear the trend;
- Slightly hawkish scenario (high risk): Signal of rate hikes is issued, pushing US Treasury yields upward; The storage sector continues to face pressure, with the previous low near 1050 being tested, further opening up downside potential.
Bullish logic
1. NAND flash memory and enterprise-grade SSDAI demand show resilience. Institutional investment banks remain optimistic about medium- to long-term fundamentals and set high target prices, but short-term valuations have plunged;
2. After a rapid short-term plunge, there is a technical demand for an oversold rebound;
3. If the FOMC issues a somewhat accommodative signal, oversold storage will become one of the sectors with the greatest rebound resilience.
Bearish Dominant Risk (Current Market Suppression)
1. Changxin Technology is listed, and the market is trading expectations for the release of forward storage capacity. There are concerns that the price increase cycle may not be as strong as previously optimistic expectations, and the logic of 'high profit points correspond to price highs' among cyclical stocks, with crowded bulls cashing out their shares on a large scale.
2. The huge gains in the first half of this year are among the most crowded trades in the market, with unrealized gains fleeing and declines creating negative feedback pedals;
3. The Federal Reserve's high interest rates maintain expectations suppressing tech growth valuations;
4. With the August earnings report approaching, funds are hedging in advance, and cloud vendor inventory is disrupting market expectations for enterprise-grade storage;
5. Sector linkage: The SOX Semiconductor Index remains unstable, making it difficult for SanDisk to achieve an independent upward trend.
Characteristics of the capital market
Institutions have reduced their positions significantly, with gambling funds and retail bottom-fishing funds entering the market to gamble on oversold prices; Gaps before and after decisions, and large fluctuations in both directions carry extremely high risks.
2. Key Price Level: SNDK-USD
✅ Support
First support is 1050 (overnight intraday low, short-term life-or-death defense). Holding here provides a foundation for an oversold rebound;
With increased volume, it broke below 1050, with the next strong support at 940, fully opening the downside.
⛔ Pressure
First resistance at 1225-1230 (old support turned into strong resistance);
Second resistance: 1325-1360 trapped in a dense zone, with no volume and hard to recover.
3. Scenario Simulation (Anchoring FOMC)
Scenario 1: Fed is dovish (recovery and rebound, probability is low)
Condition: U.S. Treasury yields retreat, Philadelphia Semiconductor SOX index stabilizing.
Trend: Hold above 1225, test upward at 1325;
⚠️ Only when volume increases and the price holds above 1230 can short-term sentiment be considered a recovery; otherwise, it will just be an oversold pulse rebound, followed by another pullback.
Scenario 2: Fed Neutral (Baseline scenario, highest probability)
Condition: Maintain interest rates unchanged, but keep the option for a September rate hike.
Trend: The 940-1230 range is oscillating and tugging, with mainly rallies and pullbacks. Rebounds should be treated as opportunities to reduce positions; it's not advisable to chase highs.
Scenario 3: Fed Hawkish (High-Risk Scenario)
Condition: Release of interest rate hike signals, U.S. Treasury yields rise.
Trend: The 1050 support has been breached, testing 940, and the storage sector continues to sell.
Key pre-market indicators to watch
1. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: The Fed's statement on a rate hike in September will determine the overall direction of tech stocks;
2. Philadelphia Semiconductor SOX Index: If SOX is not stable, SanDisk will find it difficult to strengthen;
3. Micron MU and SK Hynix synchronized their sector performance, with a strong degree of linkage in the storage sector;
4. Order book volume: rebounds require confirmation with increased volume; rebounds with declining volume are considered bullish inducements.
Summary of practical operational ideas
1. Currently, this is a high-risk window period after a major drop + before a decision. Heavy positions on the left side are prohibited from bottom-fishing. The margin for error during the valuation phase of cyclical stocks is very low.
2. Short-term: A pullback near 1050 is expected to rebound, assuming US Treasuries decline + SOX index stabilizes, very light positions are being played, stop loss set below 990; If the rebound to 1225-1230 is stagnant, reduce positions, stop loss above 1280.
3. Watershed: Holding above 1230 signals sentiment recovery; Effectively breaking below 1050 means downside risk expands.
4. Wait for the full FOMC speech to be finalized before confirming direction, as large gaps are likely to occur before and after the decision.$SKHYNIX
Profits soared 557%, yet still plunged!
SK Hynix's earnings report fell short of expectations, causing the storage sector to collapse collectively
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations
Quarterly profits surged 557%, setting a record high, but the slight disappointment in earnings triggered a sell-off.
Long-term supply contracts are compressing profit elasticity, and the momentum for storage price hikes is gradually declining
Combined with the previous sharp stock price surges, Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron all plunged $MU, $NVDA, $SAMSUNG, and $SNDK
The global storage sector has collectively collapsed, marking a turning point in the upward cycle. $BTC $ETH
#美联储即将公布利率决议
#英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt Let me tell you about the market: yesterday, SK Hynix's earnings report wasn't that important anymore. The best, most perfect, and better-than-expected Micron was released. After the earnings release, wouldn't the market crash?
High gross margin, high profits—if you say you're leeching off the semiconductor supply chain, prices will drop!
Gross margin, profit, revenue, guidance—if any one doesn't exceed expectations, it will fall!
In Q2 2026, SK Hynix achieved revenue of 79.32 trillion KRW and operating profit of 60.54 trillion KRW, up 257% and 557% year-on-year respectively, with an operating margin reaching a historic high of 76%.
(Previously, Korea Investment & Securities (KIS) released an earnings preview that was almost accurate.)7.29, Financial Market News Overview #美联储即将公布利率决议
Crude oil surges!
Iran fires ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan
Houthi forces attack a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea
The US military precisely strikes Iran-backed militias inside Iraq
Middle East tensions escalate again
The market's most direct reaction is the continued strengthening of crude oil
In the short term, rising oil prices will push inflation expectations back up
It will also suppress expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut
This is not good news for growth stocks, especially the AI sector
But what really determines the AI market
are the upcoming earnings reports from several tech giants
Looking at SK Hynix's earnings report
Key data:
Revenue of 79.3 trillion KRW, up 257% year-on-year, a record high
Operating profit of 60.5 trillion KRW, up 557% year-on-year, a record high
Net profit of 93.9 trillion KRW, up more than 13 times year-on-year, with about 33 trillion KRW difference between operating profit and net profit mainly from Kioxia investment gains.
More noteworthy is the signal from management
AI demand remains unchanged, AI infrastructure construction continues
Long-term orders keep increasing
Capital expenditure continues to expand
Overall, I think this earnings report is quite good
So why is SK Hynix's stock still falling?
The market is no longer trading on performance but on expectations
SK Hynix has risen more than tenfold in recent years
Institutions have already accumulated huge unrealized gains
When the stock price has priced in growth for the next few years in advance
Even if earnings hit new highs
It may not continue to push valuations higher
The recent pullback
Looks more like profit-taking and valuation digestion
Not a deterioration of fundamentals
Tomorrow after the US market close, Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm will release earnings
What truly affects the next phase of the AI sector
Is not whose profits are higher
But whether these tech giants are still willing to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to build AI infrastructure
If capital expenditure continues to increase
It means AI demand remains strong
If it starts to contract
The market will need to reassess this round of AI momentum! #停火48小时告吹，美伊边打边谈 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 A letter jointly signed by 134 banks, not a request, but a "general." They know their royal wings are empty, but they try to block the movement of stablecoins, the queen, with the bank's chain of weapons.
On the board, when an opponent suddenly gathers all their leptones in one spot, the most foolish response is to focus only on the piece under attack. You have to see the structure of the whole situation. Banks are now deploying not infantry but lobbying assets from 134 banks—essentially the Queen's Gambit, sacrificing the right to yield interest in certain positions in exchange for "elephant control" over payment stablecoins. They are calling for revisions to Section 10404, which essentially draws a diagonal on the chessboard: no yield-generating tokens may penetrate the lending market through reward mechanisms. This is a typical "elephant chain block," aiming to cut off the connection between the White queen and the Black weak slot (the local loan pool).
Looking at SEC Chairman Atkins' optimistic outlook—a qualified player won't expose their timeline when an opponent is under pressure. Settled before the August recess? This is a deliberately exposed "false timeline" to test whether the banking group's defense is truly concentrated. The real battlefield now is midgame: the essence of income-based stablecoins is that minions rise from the baseline to queens. Banks want to change the rules so that even after this minor upgrade, they can only follow the elephant's diagonal path—meaning only holders are allowed to earn interest, but that interest is prohibited from forming any "reward network" that siphons bank deposits.
To understand the linkage between targets like XINC, you need to see through the aftermath after the third move: if banks block reward interest, the market pricing of stablecoins will be forced from being an "interest-bearing tool" to a "currency exchange rate game of exchange rates." This lowers volatility but increases the depth of circulation—similar to swapping light stones for heavy stones on a chessboard, reducing the number of moves but increasing the impact force.
Where is the final trump card? Note "hundreds of billions in local lending funds." This is not an ordinary soldier; this is the bank's 'Wang Yi's baseline soldier.' What they fear is not the stablecoin itself, but the liquidity of stablecoin interest that can be reverse-flowed into the local banking system through DeFi protocols—this is the real "coercion" tactic. But every player knows that when an opponent blocks all their strength on one side, the rear wing on the other side is often exposed.
So, don't be intimidated by this letter from 134 people. The real good move is not to fight now, but to use an unnoticed fringe pawn to pierce the opponent's rear flank before they complete their layout—by the time they realize their territory has already been planted with promissory note agreement-level long contracts, the game has already been played twenty-five moves. #clarityactbankpush#财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are to submit their papers tonight—why are they 😭 coming up again?
Are they specifically targeting my position?
South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10.84% yesterday
Today, it once again fell below 5700 points during trading
SK Hynix continues to fall more than 9%
Yet Ethereum is still holding firm around 1900
You're the best at putting on a show 😤 in the entire market
——
$ETH is now repeatedly pulling around 1900
The 24-hour contract turnover was approximately $42.2 billion
Open interest is close to $26.9 billion
At the same time, approximately $60.4 million in positions were liquidated
Leverage has not shown a clear retreat
So this is not simply about strength
It was more like repeatedly buying and selling before the Fed's results were released
Tomorrow night, the FOMC meeting will conclude and announce interest rate decisions
The real major fluctuations may be yet to come
In the short term, 1900 is still the dividing line
Hold onto the 1930s and 1950s
If it falls below this level, it may retest 1880 and 1850
I opened 50 Ether in 1928
Qiangping has already reached around 1820
You can no longer arbitrarily increase positions based on emotion when trading 100x positions
Otherwise, it suddenly inserts a needle
It really came for me 😭
——
$BEAT
Before the volume ramps up and it holds firm
It can only be considered a low-level recovery
Don't rush to call for a twist
Falling down is completely unreasonable
——
$SNDK
SanDisk closed at $1,096.10 last night
A single-day plunge of 14.25%
Over three consecutive trading days, the cumulative drawdown has approached 32%.
Only after closing did a slight recovery of about 2.27% appear
This time, it's not just SanDisk's own problem
Instead, South Korea, Japan, and the United States were all smashed in memory chips
The market is beginning to worry about competition from Chinese storage manufacturers
Also, the valuations of the AI and storage sectors surged too sharply earlier
In the short term, first check whether the decline can stabilize around 1025 to 1050
The above levels between 1120 and 1180 are the restorative resistance
It didn't get back above 1180
For now, it can only be considered an oversold rebound
There is also an earnings report on August 5
August 13 is Investor Day
These two nodes are likely to determine the direction of the next round
——
Ethereum is clearly waiting for the Fed to reveal its cards
If you don't break 1900, keep installing
Only after falling below 1900 may real acceleration begin
Today, I won't be sulking with it
First, keep a close eye on your position to save your life
Dog Village, you'd better not ambush me 😭 in the middle of the night
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day
#财报观察员: OKX's masterclass premieres tonight, helping you understand the financial reports of the four major tech giants #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
Microsoft XMSFT, Meta, and Amazon's earnings reports tonight are absolutely the "judgment day" that will decide the fate of the AI market. I tend to believe that this wave of AI anxiety is not over yet and may even trigger a new round of intense volatility.
The reason is straightforward: Alphabet was just hammered for raising capital expenditures, and the market is now extremely sensitive to the "burning money for growth" story. If these three dare to significantly increase CAPEX (capital expenditures) again without cloud business growth keeping pace, it will be a typical "revenue growth without profit growth" expectation, and funds will flee faster than anyone else.
The data is clear: the Nasdaq 100 has already entered a technical correction, indicating that high-level chips have loosened. Now the entire market is watching their cloud business growth and AI investment guidance. As long as any data falls short of expectations or management's tone is even slightly hesitant, it will be a huge negative.
My trading approach is very clear: firmly do not bet on earnings tonight. Even if you hold positions, consider hedging. Guessing big or small at times like this is like picking up coins in front of a bulldozer—you might earn some pocket money if you win, but lose everything if you lose.
Also, beware of the trap of trading hours. Earnings are released after market close, and the volatility of the underlying stocks during market closure is the scariest. Although platforms like OKX support 7×24-hour trading of tokenized US stocks, this precisely shows how panicked the off-market sentiment is, and extreme quotes are more likely when liquidity is poor.
Don't be fooled by the calm during the day; the real battle will be in the early morning Beijing time. If these three giants cannot provide a perfect "input-output ratio" answer, then the previous AI faith will face a brutal falsification.
Therefore, the best strategy tonight is to sleep or set stop-loss orders. Let the bullets fly for a while, and wait until you wake up in the morning to see the direction clearly before making a move. In this market, surviving is ten thousand times more important than making quick profits! The load-bearing walls of this building are being replaced from concrete to HBM4.
SK Hynix's latest blueprint—Q2 revenue of 79 trillion KRW and operating profit of 60.5 trillion KRW—are impressive figures, and the tensile strength of steel reinforcement inside the walls has indeed reached a historic high. But structural engineers all know that the designed load is 64 trillion, and the actual pouring is 3.5 trillion less. The market is like a picky supervisor, immediately telling that the beam's prestress hasn't reached its design value yet.
Where did the problem lie? The proportion of HBM4 prefabricated parts is too high; the load-bearing system of the entire building relies almost entirely on this batch of specially made steel frames. When prices of traditional DRAM/NAND standard building materials recovered, Hynix's construction sites felt like subcontractors only taking on high-end custom projects—concrete mixers waiting in line, while you were holding prefabricated curtain walls. Regular inventory of building materials hasn't increased in price, so naturally they have missed out on profit.
But the management's construction logs are clear: HBM4 is being shipped in bulk, and supply contracts are locked in a five-year cycle. What does this mean? In effect, the developer has signed a 'General Contracting Framework Agreement' with the general contractor, and the tower crane rent, glass curtain wall orders, and elevator shaft dimensions for the next five years have all been finalized. The foundation piles have already been driven down to the bearing stratum, and the settlement observation curve of the superstructure is quite smooth.
Now let's look at the core cylinder of XAVGO. Essentially, it is a "steel structure integrator"—combining Hynix's prefabricated parts, Samsung's pipes, and TSMC's floor slabs into a dedicated AI-specific tower. Short-term market sentiment is like a temporary fence on a construction site—one gust of wind and it collapses, but the core tube's concrete curing cycle is not yet over. The deflection of this SK Hynix beam was indeed lower than expected, and the reserved seismic joints on the load-bearing wall were designed to accommodate the AI computing load redundantly.
The noise at the construction site now—the stock price correction—is the sound of welding and cutting, not the sound of structural cracking. The tower crane is set up; next, it depends on the speed of concrete pouring. #SKHynixRecordMiss First, let's clarify a key point: the new draft has been released ≠ the CLARITY Act has been officially passed. Don't be misled by the news and think the bill's impact on the market has already been implemented.
Previously, the core of market debate was whether ethical clauses could be written into legislation. Now that these clauses have been officially included in the draft, the bill has entered the substantive legislative process. Simply put, after a round of tug-of-war and public debate, a compromise plan is finalized, and only then does the formal review process begin.
This ethical clause mainly restricts public officials from issuing and promoting crypto assets and profiting from them; it does not completely ban crypto investments; essentially, it is a compromise for opponents to gain vote support.
But now, with the Senate summer recess in August approaching, the time window is extremely tight. It's extremely difficult to complete the vote before the recess, and hoping the bill will bring strong market benefits in a short time is basically unrealistic. #银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated $KORU Market Analysis [7.29 Daytime]
⚠️ Risk warning: Market logic is purely based on market logic and does not constitute investment advice. KORU is a daily reset 3x leverage ETF, suitable only for short-term trading, prohibiting long-term holding. Volatility can cause leverage loss and decay; Highly bound to Korea's KOSPI, heavily invested in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix memory chips, and affected by the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision, resulting in extremely high volatility.
Current market status
KORU followed the Korean KOSPI in a continuous correction, with the storage sector (Samsung, SK Hynix) as the main drag. Coupled with the overall weakness in US stocks, foreign capital continued to flow out of Korean tech stocks.
KORU, due to 3x leverage, is much more volatile than the KOSPI index; The white market is a pre-news wait-and-see grinding session, with trading volume remaining high and bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition.
- Underlying logic: Samsung and SK Hynix's expectations for HBM storage price hikes have been revised, combined with supply-side concerns caused by ChangXin Memory's IPO, causing the storage sector to plunge and directly drive KORU downward.
- Linkage: The Federal Reserve's FOMC decision is the largest external variable; With U.S. Treasury yields rising and global growth technologies under pressure, Korean stocks are unlikely to break out of an independent rally.
- Product features: Daily leverage resets. If the index fluctuates back and forth, KORU will suffer additional net asset value loss. Even if the index doesn't fall, trading sideways will still result in losses.
1. Core Driving Framework
1. Macro (top weight, FOMC implemented at 02:00 Beijing time)
KORU is a high-leveraged, high-β product, extremely sensitive to US dollar liquidity
- Dovish scenario: The Fed keeps rates unchanged, downplaying a September rate hike; US Treasury yields retreated, foreign capital flowed back into Korean stocks, KOSPI recovered, and KORU showed a strong rebound;
- Neutral scenario (highest baseline probability): Rates remain unchanged, but the September rate hike option remains; KOSPI is oscillating and bottoming out, KORU surges after a pulse rebound and then pulls back, with poor sustain of the rebound;
- Hawkish scenario (high risk): signals of hawkish rate hikes are sent, pushing U.S. Treasury yields upward; Foreign investors continue to sell off Korean tech stocks, KOSPI breaks down, KORU is expected to plunge sharply, and leverage amplifies drawdown risk.
Bullish narrative logic
1. Long-term AI storage boom: Samsung and SK Hynix's HBM business fundamentals remain resilient; in the short term, this is an expected correction, not a complete collapse of fundamentals;
2. After a round of deep pullback, there is a technical demand for an oversold rebound;
3. Only when the Fed signals easing + foreign capital flows back into the Korean stock market can there be a major recovery.
Bearish Dominant Risk (Current Market Suppression)
1. Lowered expectations for HBM storage price increases, market concerns about increased supply, and compression of valuations for Samsung and SK Hynix, which is KORU's biggest internal negative factor;
2. Foreign investors continue to net sell Korean technology weights, while local retail investors take over, resulting in a weak capital structure;
3. Triple daily reset leverage with huge risk: continuous net asset loss in volatile markets, not suitable for medium- to long-term trading;
4. Expectations that the Federal Reserve's high interest rates will continue to suppress global tech growth valuations;
5. Korean stocks are heavily leveraged by retail investors, so during declines, margin calls are easily triggered, leading to negative feedback stampedes.
Characteristics of the capital market
Trading volume continues to expand, institutions reduce their positions, and retail investors are gambling to buy the dip; When the FOMC decision is implemented, extreme up-and-down pins may occur, and the risk of stop-loss is extremely high.
2. Key Price Level: KORU-USDT
✅ Support
First support at 12.80 (short-term defensive platform), holding the range-bound battle;
Volume drops below 12.80, strong support at 10.60, fully opening downside potential.
⛔ Pressure
First resistance at 15.40 (old support turned into strong resistance);
Second resistance: 17.60-18.80 trapped in a dense zone, with low volume making it hard to break through.
3. Scenario Simulation (Anchoring FOMC)
Scenario 1: Fed is dovish (market recovery, low probability)
Conditions: US Treasury yields fall, foreign capital flows back into Korean stocks, KOSPI stabilizes and rebounds.
Trend: Holds above 15.40, resistance leads upward, testing 17.60;
⚠️ Leveraged ETFs have strong rebound explosiveness, but they are only suitable for short-term quick entry and exit, and absolutely not suitable for long-term holding.
Scenario 2: Fed Neutral (Baseline scenario, highest probability)
Condition: Maintain interest rates unchanged, but keep the option for a September rate hike.
Trend: The 10.60-15.40 range is oscillating back and forth, mainly rebounding and then pulling back, suitable for very short-term trading.
Scenario 3: Fed Hawkish (High-Risk Scenario)
Condition: Signal of rate hikes released, global tech sector crashes.
Trend: Breaking below 12.80 support, quickly testing 10.60, leverage amplified the decline.
Key indicators to watch during the day
1. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: The Fed's statement on September rate hikes will determine the overall direction;
2. KOSPI index, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix stock prices; KOSPI is not stabilizing, and KORU has no independent market;
3. Foreign capital flows in the Korean stock market;
4. Leverage ETFs suffer from volatility losses; do not hold positions for long periods during sideways trading phases.
Summary of practical operational ideas
1. Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see mode before the decision. KORU's leverage risk is extremely high, making it unsuitable for ordinary investors to heavily invest and only for very short-term trading.
2. Short-term: Pullback to 12.80 for a rebound, premise: US Treasury yields falling + KOSPI stabilizing, very light position, stop loss set below 11.90; if rebounding near 15.40, stagnate can bet on short-term positions, stop loss above 16.10;
3. Watershed: Holding above 15.40 for sentiment recovery; Downside risk expanding below 12.80;
4. Remember the product attributes: Reset 3x leverage daily; do not hold it as a regular stock long-term, as volatility will continuously erode net asset value.Now, SanDisk$SNDK and SKHYNIX have both plunged consecutively, and the sector's hype has cooled rapidly. Looking back at this position screenshot, two cross-position long positions still had floating profits: 9x leverage to long SK Hynix, 14x leverage to go long SanDisk, both making book profits. It's a classic case of bottom-fishing in the sector. Let's break it down and explain why they dare to enter, what the benefits are, and where the risks lie. 1. The underlying logic behind traders daring to buy the dip: Believing in the big story of memory cycle reversal. AI drives demand for memory chips, and the industry cycle has bottomed out—this is the logic the market keeps repeating. In traders' eyes, these two are core stocks in the sector. Short-term pullbacks are opportunities, and drops are bottom-fishing opportunities—their long-term value is there. Seeing previous gains, subjectively assuming the correction will not continue. The previous rally has already seen a real rise and has started an upward trend. Traders believe this is just a normal pullback and won't directly reverse the trend. After a decline, the price will quickly rise again, so buying on dips to capture a new round of gains. Diversifying between two stocks in the same track, thinking it reduces risk. He opened two long positions simultaneously: SKHY on SKHY and $SNDK on SanDisk, both in the storage sector. He thought to himself, if one fell badly, maybe the other could withstand it and spread the risk. Reality: Both belong to the storage sector, with highly interlinked market conditions. When the market sells off sectors, both products fall together, making it impossible to hedge effectively. 2. The benefits of this bottom-fishing approach: If the market moves according to prediction, the sector will stop falling and rebound. High leverage amplifies returns, just like in the screenshotBitcoin spot trading volume has returned to the levels seen at the end of the 2023 bear market, down more than 75% from the peak at the end of 2024.
Many people think:
No one is trading anymore—is the market about to end?
But I actually believe this actually indicates that the market has entered a new stage.
What truly drives the market upward has never been the buying and selling of existing funds.
Instead, incremental funds keep flowing in.
When trading volume continues to shrink, it means everyone is waiting.
Some are waiting for the Federal Reserve.
Some people are waiting to lower their rates.
Some are waiting for new industry narratives.
Others simply chose to wait and see.
So what the market lacks most right now is not positive news.
Instead, new funds willing to enter the market.
Without trading volume, even the biggest news is hard to sustain a sustained rally.
With trading volume, many seemingly ordinary pieces of news can also become catalysts for market movement.[Graphic Observation | Precious Metals and Risk Assets] At 13:18 Beijing time, Jin Shi article clues: CME gold futures saw a surge in orders during the first weekend of 24/202 trading, with institutions predicting the next wave of gold prices by 1,000 points.
Quote snapshot: Spot gold 4,028.10 (-0.02%); Spot silver 57.6190 (+0.91%); Spot copper 6.3517 (-0.50%). The most pronounced current changes are spot silver, and such fluctuations typically first map to real interest rates, the US dollar, and safe-haven demand.
Background Summary: CME Group Gold Futures performed impressively in its first weekend of the 7×24 hour trading session, indicating a sustained warming global investor demand for gold trading. State Street strategists believe the market has overpriced expectations of Fed tightening, and the gold bull market is not yet over.
Verification point: If gold/silver rises but copper prices weaken, it indicates that safe-haven assets outweigh growth expectations; If copper prices strengthen in tandem, risk appetite will likely recover.
Risk warning: When the US dollar, real interest rates, or geopolitical news reverse, precious metals may be distorted in the transmission to the crypto market. For market observation purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.On the eve of the FOMC, AI chose to hold its position
Guys, BTC has returned to around 64,000, and the market sentiment has clearly shifted to a "waiting mode."
The biggest backdrop today is the FOMC meeting. CME data shows that the market prices in a rate hike probability of about 30%, and expectations of rate cuts have long since faded. Block Scholes bluntly called this "the most uncertain FOMC in nearly a decade." In the face of such uncertainty, waiting and waiting is the most reasonable response.
Market Status: Volume shrinking and fluctuating, direction unclear.
BTC is currently trading in the 63,700-64,000 range, down about 1.1%-1.4% in 24 hours. ETH is around 1,910, SOL is around 73.4, and overall it follows the broader market movement. The fear index is 29-30, still in the "fear" range.
The biggest change in the market now is that BTC and AI tech stocks are decoupling. Over the past month, BTC has risen about 6%, while the S&P 500 has remained largely flat, and the semiconductor sector has fallen nearly 20%. K33 Research believes the correlation between the two is weakening, which is actually good for BTC—BTC was previously sold off as a high-beta version of tech stocks, but now it is forging its own logic.
But the Clarity Act is still being delayed. The Senate prioritizes other bills, and a vote this week is basically unlikely. This weakened the previously positive regulatory expectations.
AIX's decision today: no new positions, waiting for the FOMC to take effect.
Tonight until tomorrow morning is a critical window, and the news will directly determine the direction. BTC resistance is at 64,500-65,000; a breakout is necessary to see higher levels; Support below is at 63,000-63,200. If Wash leans dovish, BTC may retest above 65,000; If the bias is hawkish, it may pull back to 62,000 or even lower.
I will continue to hold two existing positions, set stop-losses, and will not bet on direction regarding tonight's news. Acting after the FOMC is implemented is the most certain strategy.
Do you think tonight is more hawkish or dovish? Let's talk in 👇 the comments
#AI交易 #AIX智能体 #交易日记 #FOMC前夜Semiconductor Outlook: AI Demand is the Primary Productivity Driver, Domestic Substitution is the Second Growth Pole
Semiconductors are no longer cyclical stocks; they are now the shovels for AI. The logic is simple and straightforward: the more money AI burns, the more chips are in short supply. The latest SIA report confirms that global semiconductor sales will hit a record $795.6 billion in 2025, and in 2026 will surpass $1.5 trillion for the first time, a year-over-year surge of 90%. An AI server rack contains over 4,500 packaged chips, accounting for more than 95% of the rack's value, and a single data center consumes thousands of chips.
Memory is currently the biggest beneficiary of AI. HBM, enterprise-grade DRAM, and NAND are in short supply, with both volume and prices rising. The global memory market is expected to grow to $890 billion in 2026, a year-over-year increase of 296%. All CSP cloud providers are increasing capital expenditures; Microsoft, Meta, and Google combined will spend $87.4 billion in Q1 2026, with most of that money going into chip manufacturers' pockets.
In China, there is an additional logic line: self-reliance and control. AI chip shipments have exceeded 40% market share, and domestic substitution has shifted from concept to actual performance. Local wafer fabs are accelerating capacity expansion, and the localization of equipment, materials, and components is advancing comprehensively. Equipment delivery times have extended to 12 months, core component orders have surged, and Fuchuang Precision's half-year report showing a net profit increase attributable to the parent company of 877%-1121% is clear evidence.
The biggest short-term divergence is valuation and crowded trades. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has pulled back significantly from its peak as the market re-prices the return cycle of AI capital expenditures. Semiconductor equipment delivery cycles have lengthened, with order visibility extending to 2028; the industry is still on an upward trajectory but will inevitably experience volatility. TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix are all simultaneously expanding advanced process and advanced packaging capacity. Leading equipment manufacturers have raised their revenue and order guidance for 2026-2027, with industry order certainty higher than retail accounts.
For investors, semiconductor prosperity is reflected on two levels: structural shortages in memory chips due to supply-demand gaps, and equipment demand growth driven by capacity expansion in advanced processes and advanced packaging. Against the backdrop of continuous growth in AI training and inference and ongoing increases in capital expenditures by overseas cloud providers, the upward cycle for 2026-2027 is basically confirmed, though it requires continued performance validation.Bitcoin's $BTC LTH-SOPR (the profit-taking indicator for long-term holders holding for more than 155 days) has hit a new high again. Following the two rally rounds in April and June last year, the upper boundary of the indicator has been broken again, and on-chain liquidity has shown clear signal changes.
This indicator measures the profitability of long-term investors when transferring or selling Bitcoin. The value has risen significantly above the baseline, indicating that a large number of long-term chips are taking profits and pocketing them securely. The long-term holders, known as 'smart money,' are gradually adjusting their positions and cashing out by taking advantage of this price rebound, turning book gains into cash liquidity.
These most determined holdings cash out at high prices, and every rebound creates selling pressure above. Incremental selling is released into the market, suppressing the upside of the coin price. The core of this indicator is to observe liquidity trends. It cannot be used solely to predict price movements, but during a rebound, it can directly reflect the true strength of market chips being realized, serving as an important reference for assessing market momentum.The Korean stock market has once again sounded the alarm for global capital markets. On July 28, South Korea's KOSPI index plunged sharply at the opening, triggering circuit breakers and halting trading for 20 minutes. After trading resumed, panic did not ease, and the index continued to decline. Market attention quickly shifted to two key words: Nvidia and leverage. Many believe this crash is the beginning of the AI bubble bursting. But what truly deserves attention is not AI, but the leverage mechanisms hidden behind the bull market. ⸻ The first trigger: Nvidia's AI story begins to be repriced. The first concern in the market was Nvidia. According to The Wall Street Journal, Nvidia is pushing forward a $750 billion AI infrastructure financing plan. After the announcement, the market began to re-examine the entire AI industry chain. Investors worry that if vendors provide both financing and guarantees, and customers use the financing to purchase GPUs, industry demand may be amplified, and future corporate performance may be affected by changes in the financing environment. It should be noted that this reflects market concerns about financing structure and credit risk, and does not mean that the related risks have already been realized. But what the capital market trades is never about today—it's about the future. As a result, the AI sector was the first to be sold off by capital. ⸻ The Second Trigger: Competitive Pressure from China's Memory Chips Meanwhile, another piece of news continues to ferment. With the development of China's memory chip industry, international capital has begun to reassess the global DRAM market landscape@币圈超短王马大帅 Full Interpretation of the Federal Reserve's July Interest Rate Decision
1. Basic Timing (Key Points)
Decision Announcement: July 30, 02:00 Beijing Time
Chair Powell's Press Conference: 02:30
Key Point: The interest rate figure itself is not important; the tone of the press conference speech > the original decision text. Often there are "initial rise then fall, initial fall then reversal" sharp moves.
2. Current Market Expectations
Benchmark Interest Rate Range 3.50%-3.75%
1. Hold rates steady: about 64%
2. Unexpected 25 basis points hike: about 36%
This year's special difficulty: the new chair abandons fixed forward guidance, will not give policy direction for September in advance, making the market more prone to violent fluctuations.
3. Three Scenarios Corresponding to Crypto Market Movements #FederalReserveInterestRateDecisionComing
Scenario 1: Hold rates steady + Hawkish speech (highest probability)
Keywords: Inflation still sticky, high rates maintained longer, no discussion of rate cuts
✅ Market Impact:
Short-term slight rebound first, then pressured downward; USD strengthens, BTC and ETH pull back; altcoins fall more than majors.
Contracts tend to concentrate on long liquidations, beware of fake breakouts to lure longs.
Scenario 2: Hold rates steady + Dovish speech
Keywords: Inflation continues to cool, rate cuts may be evaluated later
✅ Market Impact:
Risk sentiment warms, BTC holds above 64500, ETH rebounds to test 1960, funds slightly flow back into small caps.
Scenario 3: Unexpected 25 basis points hike (Black Swan)
✅ Market Impact: All markets plunge, quickly break key supports, massive leveraged liquidations chain-react, avoid bottom-fishing short-term.
4. Underlying Logic (Simple and Clear Explanation)
1. Rate hike / Hawkish = Tightening liquidity
USD and US Treasury yields rise, funds withdraw from high-risk assets like crypto, bearish for crypto.
2. Rate cut expectation / Dovish = Expectation of loose liquidity
More money in the market, funds willing to take risk, bullish for BTC and ETH.
Additional: The market trades on future expectations, not current rates. Even if no hike, if the tone is hawkish, prices still fall.
5. Three Pitfalls Short-term Traders Must Watch
1. Don't heavily bet on direction before the news
Historical FOMC often has two-way sharp moves, both longs and shorts liquidated.
2. Volatility rhythm:
02:00 Decision → first quick reaction;
02:30 Chair speech → real trend emerges, often reverses the first wave.
3. ETH is much more volatile than BTC; night of decision usually sees larger swings, contract risk control priority should be raised.
6. Current Key Price Levels Reference
BTC
Resistance: 64500 | Strong resistance 65300
Support: 63000 | Strong support 62300
ETH
Resistance: 1960 | Strong resistance 2020
Support: 1865 | Strong support 1810 Global storage stocks continued to plunge. SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron all pulled back in tanse, and the market is no longer trading in earnings reports, but rather on supply and demand forecasts for the storage industry over the next year. Institutions believe this round of decline mainly comes from three changes: First, the China variable. Changxin Memory's IPO and progress in domestic equipment have led to capital reassessing future DRAM supply additions, repricing the long-term scarcity of Korean leaders. Second, AI variables. Demand for AI servers remains strong, but the market is beginning to worry that large model training needs are moving from a boom period to an optimization phase, and whether HBM demand growth will peak has become a new controversy. Third, capital variables. On the eve of Microsoft and Meta's earnings reports, funds actively reduced AI holdings, making high-valuation chip stocks the preferred choice for profit-taking. In the Korean market, Samsung and SK Hynix held too much weight, further amplifying the decline. So, this drop isn't about earnings, but about expectations for next year. 1. $SKHY SK Hynix 2. $MU Micron Technology 3. $WDC Western Digital 4. $SNDK SanDisk31.5% Rate Hike vs 68.5% Hold: The FOMC's "Most Unpredictable Decision" Revealed Tonight — Full Simulation of Two Bitcoin Scenarios
On CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike is fixed at 31.5%, while holding rates is 68.5%. It looks like holding rates is the likely event, right? But in the past three years, which FOMC eve wasn’t a 99% absolute consensus? Since March 2020, this is the first time Kevin Warsh has thrown the "forward guidance" into the dustbin; the committee no longer gives hints in advance, which leads to this moment of blind guessing.
Looking back half a month ago, in June, the decision was still a unanimous 12-0 vote to hold, but that tough statement with only three paragraphs erased all imagination about "future easing." And before Powell left in April, there were actually 4 dissenting votes, the most divided scene since 1992. TD Securities even predicted that Hammack and Logan would once again oppose tonight.
Now let's talk about what we care about most: where is Bitcoin headed?
Speculative USD longs have piled up to the highest level since 2015. If there is no rate hike, this spark will fly out, and the USD will immediately drop 0.3%-0.5%, allowing risk assets to breathe a sigh of relief; but if they really dare to hike, the USD will surge instantly, and all risk assets will have to fall.
Scenario One (Rate Hike). Low probability. The USD surges sharply, and Bitcoin will face more than a simple pullback; the $60,000 level will be pierced like paper, and panic selling will cascade at that point.
Scenario Two (Hold + Dovish Statement). High probability. This requires Warsh to utter even a hint of softness. Even just a slight easing on inflation tone will cause the extremely crowded USD longs to immediately flip. Once the USD weakens, Bitcoin can instantly rebound and surge toward $66,000 or even higher.
#美联储即将公布利率决议 $BTC Woke up early to watch the market, here are a few key recent changes.
1. Last night’s US stock market: one side fire, one side iceberg
First, the data: Dow Jones up 537 points (+1.03%) to 52747, S&P 500 up 0.21% to 7428, Nasdaq down 0.22% to 24876.
This data sends a clear signal—capital is fleeing tech and flowing into traditional sectors. Among Dow components, Sherwin-Williams rose over 8%, Coca-Cola up 5%, both traditional industries beating expectations. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell for the fourth consecutive day, down over 3%. Micron dropped about 10%, AMD down 8%.
Baird’s investment strategist put it bluntly: “This is a truly broad sector rotation. This momentum unwind story has lasted six to eight weeks and is much more related to technical factors than any fundamental changes.”
The question is: if the yield curve rises overall and oil prices approach $100 per barrel, can the buying logic for consumer, financial, and industrial stocks still hold?
2. Two alarms lifted, but a bigger alarm hasn’t sounded
Last night there was a strange phenomenon: while US stocks rose, the dollar, US Treasury yields, and US crude oil all fell simultaneously. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.60%, WTI crude fell below $80.
On the surface, this seems good—oil prices down, yields down, dollar down, theoretically benefiting Nasdaq, semiconductors, gold, and Bitcoin simultaneously. But yesterday these markets all fell together. This is not a normal risk-off retreat; it’s capital systematically withdrawing from overvalued risk assets.
More worrisome: SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue missed expectations after hours, and US stock futures weakened accordingly. The chill in memory chips hasn’t dissipated.
3. Tonight is the real “Judgment Day”
At 2 a.m. Beijing time Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision. At 2:30 a.m., Chair Powell will hold a press conference.
How intense is the current game?
Federal funds futures open interest has surged to 967,136 contracts, a record high. UBS’s chief US economist said he has never been this uncertain in 20 years.
CME FedWatch shows a 69.5% chance of holding rates steady, 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike. All 104 economists surveyed by Reuters predict no change—but market pricing implies a 30% chance of a hike. This divergence is extremely rare in Fed history.
JPMorgan outlined five scenarios:
① Hold + hawkish (50% probability) — S&P 500 volatility +0.25% to -0.5%. Baseline forecast, but at least two dissenting votes (Harker and Logan).
② Hold + dovish (28%) — S&P 500 up 0.5%-1%. Most favorable for stocks.
③ Hike 25bp (20%) — S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, Nasdaq 100 decline could double.
④ Hike 50bp (1%) — S&P 500 plunges 2%-4%.
⑤ Cut rates (1%) — could be interpreted as “Fed losing independence,” causing yields to rise and stocks to weaken.
Since Powell took office, the Fed has completely abandoned “forward guidance,” no longer signaling the market in advance. This means anything could happen tonight.
4. More important than the Fed: Microsoft and Meta earnings
Around 4 a.m. Beijing time Thursday, Microsoft and Meta will release earnings.
Wall Street expects Microsoft revenue of $87.7 billion, up 15% year-over-year. But the real focus is capital expenditure—Microsoft plans $190 billion for the year, Meta raised to $145 billion. Goldman Sachs expects the top five global cloud providers’ capital spending to exceed $725 billion this year, a 77% surge over 2025.
Google has already “turned in a bad assignment”—its stock plunged after raising capital expenditure. Some analysts bluntly say: “If earnings are good but the stock still falls, it means the AI trade issue is no longer fundamentals but valuation, positioning, and capital expenditure models are being systemically re-evaluated.”
5. Crypto market: Bitcoin falls below 63,000
Bitcoin is currently around $63,000-$64,000, the lowest in ten days.
Triple pressure:
1. Fed’s 30% chance of a rate hike suppresses risk appetite
2. Sentiment transmission from ongoing AI tech stock pullback
3. Probability of CLARITY Act passing this year dropped from 55% to 35%, regulatory expectations dashed
Analysts note August and September are typically seasonal weak periods for Bitcoin. If the bill fails, strong support exists near $55,000.
However, some believe Bitcoin may not be as fragile as AI tech stocks and could remain relatively strong around the FOMC. The reason is BTC’s correlation with Nasdaq has fallen to a multi-year low.
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Tonight promises no sleep. Regardless of the outcome, volatility will be extreme
#美联储决议 #美股 #比特币 #AI财报 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 $BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 Big money just moved off the exchange.
Yesterday Binance saw a net outflow of 9,030 $BTC. That’s about $589M worth, and the largest single day withdrawal in 5 months. The last time we saw anything close was February 6th with 8,744 $BTC leaving.
When withdrawals hit this size it’s not retail. That’s someone pulling serious size into self-custody. Coins that leave exchanges don’t get dumped into the order book.
What makes this interesting is the timing. Back in late June, 30-day momentum was deep in the red at -21%. Over the last three weeks it has fought its way back toward zero and just flipped positive. It’s been bouncing around that line, indecisive, but now it’s holding.
We’ve seen this movie before. In the past year, every time momentum recovered from a deep negative like this and crossed back above zero, it led to a rally. October 2025, January 2026, April 2026. Same setup, same result.
Now we have it again. Momentum climbing out of -21%, pushing above zero, and on that exact stretch we get the biggest outflow in 5 months.
Could it fail? Of course. Momentum has been waffling around zero for two weeks. Nothing is guaranteed.
But the combination matters. 9,030 $BTC off Binance right as momentum recovers from extreme lows. Historically that setup has resolved up.
Will it play out the same this time? We’ll find out.Brothers, tonight might be the most perilous night of 2026.
Fed decision countdown, rate hike probability soaring to 30%, tech giants' earnings reports clustering tonight, chip stocks have already crashed in advance as a salute. How should we view this "Super Wednesday"?
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🇺🇸 1. Federal Reserve: Possible "Surprise Rate Hike" Tonight
CME FedWatch shows a 69.5% chance of holding rates steady in July, but the probability of a 25 basis point hike has surged from 13% a week ago to 30.5%. Citi bluntly calls this the "most divided moment since September 2024."
The root of the division is triple inflation pressures: rising oil prices, new tariffs taking effect, and overheated AI demand. More troubling, Fed Chair Waller has completely abandoned "forward guidance"—no longer signaling the market in advance. This means anything could happen tonight.
JPMorgan outlines five scenarios:
· No change + hawkish (50% probability): S&P 500 volatility +0.25% to -0.5%
· Dovish no change (28% probability): S&P 500 up 0.5%-1%
· Rate hike 25bp (20% probability): S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, Nasdaq 100 decline could double
· Rate hike 50bp (1% probability): S&P 500 plunges 2%-4%
· Rate cut (1% probability): Could be interpreted as "Fed losing independence"
UBS chief US economist admits he has never been this uncertain in 20 years.
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📉 2. US Stocks: Chip Stocks Have Already Collapsed
Tuesday's US stock market was extremely divergent:
· Dow Jones up over 1%, approaching all-time highs (traditional sectors + oil price retreat)
· S&P 500 slightly up 0.2%
· Nasdaq 100 down 1%, fifth consecutive trading day decline
The worst hit are chip stocks. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.5%, intraday drop once hit 6.5%. SanDisk down over 14%, Western Digital and Seagate down over 10%, Micron and SK Hynix nearly 10%. The memory chip sector is undergoing systemic sell-off.
Nasdaq 100 has fallen into a correction zone from its peak. The AI semiconductor sector is experiencing a triple revaluation of valuation, positioning, and capital expenditure patterns.
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🤖 3. Tech Giants Earnings: The "Clearing Moment" for AI
Tonight Microsoft and Meta will release earnings. Wall Street expects Microsoft revenue of $87.7 billion (15% YoY growth).
The real focus is capital expenditure. Microsoft plans up to $190 billion for the year, Meta raised to $145 billion. Goldman Sachs expects the top five global cloud service providers' combined capital expenditure to exceed $725 billion this year, a 77% surge over 2025.
Google has already submitted "bad homework"—after raising capital expenditure, its stock plunged 4%. If Microsoft and Meta's earnings cannot prove these huge investments are translating into revenue growth, AI trades may face even fiercer sell-offs.
Tesla is also dragging the market down. After earnings, its stock plunged 14.52%, closing at $319.69. Q2 deliveries hit a record 480,000 vehicles, but free cash flow recorded negative $1.09 billion. Elon Musk's Tesla + SpaceX lost $1.5 trillion in market value in one month.
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₿ 4. Crypto Market: Bitcoin Falls Below $64,000
Bitcoin currently trades in the $63,000-$64,000 range, hitting the lowest level in ten days. The total crypto market cap has evaporated about $24 billion in 24 hours.
Triple pressures are suppressing the crypto market:
1. Fed rate hike uncertainty—30% hike probability puts risk assets under full pressure
2. AI tech stock correction—although crypto's correlation with Nasdaq has weakened, sentiment transmission remains
3. CLARITY Act delay—the US crypto regulatory framework legislation progress is slower than expected
Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq has dropped to a multi-year low, meaning the Fed decision's impact on BTC may be lower than historical levels. But the bad news is—the difficulty of breaking the $70,000 resistance purely through monetary policy is increasing, price discovery will return to fundamentals.
Ethereum hovers near $1,900, Solana slightly weaker. Major coins overall show a "narrow range consolidation before the decision" wait-and-see stance.
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💎 5. How to Operate Tonight?
For US stocks: Nasdaq and high-valuation tech stocks are the biggest risk exposures. If there is a surprise rate hike, Nasdaq 100's decline could be twice that of the S&P 500. It is recommended to control positions and avoid heavy bets on direction before the decision.
For crypto: Bitcoin is currently at a key support level of $63,100. If the Fed signals dovishness, BTC could be the fastest asset to rebound; if a surprise hike occurs, a sharp short-term drop is inevitable.
For AI/chip stocks: Microsoft and Meta's earnings are more important than the Fed. If earnings are good but stock prices still fall, it indicates the problem with AI trades is no longer fundamentals but valuation and position structure.
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Tonight is destined to be sleepless. Regardless of the outcome, volatility will be extremely intense.
The above is a personal market observation note and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risks; decisions should be made cautiously.
#美联储决议 #美股 #比特币 #AI财报 #苹果公司市值重回全球首位，超越英伟达 #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 At today's open, the Korean index KOSPI experienced another familiar decline. It once dropped 12% during the session, triggering a circuit breaker. Nikkei still fell 3%. During the session, $SKHYNIX dropped over 17%. $SNDK This coin supports CS. SKHYNIX crashes sharply but doesn't follow; Hynix slows up but rises sharply. If you were the big brother, you'd have an independent market. If you want to watch SKHYNIX's mood, follow it in sync. Aggressively pushing long and short positions, that's even more CS than altcoins. This decline isn't over yet! The AI bubble has already formed, subtly taking place in the market economy, with most funds flowing into safe-haven institutions like Coca-Cola. Nvidia plans to provide $250 billion in credit guarantees to OpenAI. Market concerns over unlimited AI lending expansion and downstream computing power demand falling short of expectations. Panic directly spills into Asia-Pacific stock markets. SK Hynix's earnings report falls short of expectations, leading to a revaluation of storage cycle valuations. Although second-quarter profits surged year-on-year, they fell short of institutional consensus expectations. Combined with expectations of expansion of domestic storage capacity, foreign investors worry about Samsung, SK Hynix's global monopoly weakens as collective reductions and exits are released. Half of South Korea's stock market is tied to semiconductors, causing volatility to be magnified infinitely. This year, 2x long SK hynix/Samsung leveraged ETFs were launched. Retail investors flocked to long positions with aggressive leverage. During price declines, ETFs were forcibly liquidated, creating a chain stampede. 320,000 retail investors' principals were wiped out, and forced liquidation pressure continued to sell. The Bank of Korea raised interest rates, recurring US-Iran geopolitical tensions, and the strong US dollar led to continued outflows of foreign capital, leading to a broad decline in risk appetite and collective selling of high-valuation tech assets for safe havens. Currently, global AI assets with high valuations have entered a valuation digestion cycle. #停火48小时告吹, the US and Iran negotiated while fighting
The ceasefire fell through after 48 hours; crypto is the only battlefield that does not rely on certainty
48 hours, which is even shorter than yogurt.
Iranian missiles launched, U.S. forces intercepted, and targets inside Iraq were precisely struck. An informal ceasefire lasted less than two days before shattering. WTI jumped from 82 to 85—moderate restraint, no return to 90, no panic.
This countermeasure itself is even more worth dismantling than missiles.
Because diplomatic channels remain intact. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister revealed Oman's plan: 50%-50% co-management of Hormuz. Iran said, "I want full control," but did not flip the table. Both sides are close to restoring the previous 60-day memorandum of understanding—not a peace agreement, but a gentleman's agreement to "not strike too hard for now."
What is this called? It's called war and diplomacy pricing at the same time. The market's most hated state is not total war (price surges) or peace agreement (premium repayment), but the chaos of "fighting while negotiating." You never know if the next news will be "agreement signed" or "missile launch"; all positions are guessing.
And chaos is precisely the battlefield the crypto market excels at.
Traditional asset pricing models require deterministic input—either fight or negotiate, choose one or the other. From day one, the crypto market has lived in multiple layers of chaos of regulatory uncertainty, cyclical uncertainty, and narrative uncertainty. Other mainstream assets spend their whole lives learning "how to predict," but the crypto market has been learning "how to survive in the unpredictable" from day one.
So when the US and Iran enter the blurred zone of "fighting while negotiating," the relative advantage of the crypto market is not reflected in rallies—it is when uncertainty persists, other markets begin to waver, and crypto actually maintains pricing efficiency.
Not because it is immune to geopolitical risks. It's because it has more experience in "narrative switching" than any traditional asset.
In 2022, when the crypto market was bouncing between "regulatory good" and "regulatory negative," AI hardware was still telling stories. Before ETF approval in 2024, the market tuged back and forth for an entire quarter between "approval and rejection." The crypto market survived two years ago amid high-intensity narrative switching, and AI hardware stocks only started paying their tuition this year.
The US-Iran "strike-and-talk" approach only provides the crypto market with another scenario it excels at: pricing in uncertainty.
If the 60-day memorandum of understanding is signed—oil prices can breathe a sigh of relief, and BTC will rebound with risk assets.
If missiles keep flying and negotiations continue—the crypto market will adapt to this pulse-like news pricing rhythm faster than any market.
What you want is not prediction. You never can predict.
What you want is a pricing model that can still run even when predictions fail.
The crypto market has no ceasefire agreement, nor ceasefire terms. It has only one underlying capability: when nothing is certain, it can keep quoting.
The US and Iran negotiated while fighting, BTC didn't crash—this signal is more worth watching than any oil price candlestick. Not because it's strong, but because it hasn't lost pricing power amid the chaos.
The above does not constitute investment advice. A 48-hour ceasefire can be broken, but as long as the crypto market continues to quote, its work remains unchanged.@币圈超短王马大帅 Full Interpretation of the Federal Reserve's July Interest Rate Decision
1. Basic Timing (Key Points)
Decision Announcement: July 30, 02:00 Beijing Time
Chairman Powell's Press Conference: 02:30
Key Point: The interest rate figure itself is not important; the tone of the press conference speech > the original decision text. Often there are "initial rise then fall, initial fall then reversal" sharp moves.
2. Current Market Expectations
Benchmark Interest Rate Range: 3.50%-3.75%
1. Hold rates steady: about 64%
2. Unexpected 25 basis points hike: about 36%
This year's special difficulty: the new chairman has abandoned fixed forward guidance and will not give policy direction ahead of September, making the market more prone to violent fluctuations.
3. Three Scenarios Corresponding to Crypto Market Movements #FederalReserveInterestRateDecisionComing
Scenario 1: Hold rates steady + Hawkish speech (highest probability)
Keywords: Inflation remains sticky, high rates maintained longer, no discussion of rate cuts
✅ Market impact:
Short-term slight rebound followed by pressure downward; USD strengthens, BTC and ETH pull back; altcoins fall more than majors.
Contracts tend to concentrate on long positions, beware of a bull trap on the spike.
Scenario 2: Hold rates steady + Dovish speech
Keywords: Inflation continues to cool, rate cuts may be evaluated later
✅ Market impact:
Risk sentiment warms, BTC holds above 64500, ETH rebounds to challenge 1960, funds slightly flow back into small-cap coins.
Scenario 3: Unexpected 25 basis points hike (Black Swan)
✅ Market impact:
Market-wide plunge, quickly breaks key supports, massive leveraged liquidations in chain, avoid bottom-fishing short-term.
4. Underlying Logic (Simple and Clear Explanation)
1. Rate hike / Hawkish = Tightening liquidity
USD and US Treasury yields rise, funds withdraw from high-risk assets like crypto, bearish for crypto.
2. Rate cut expectation / Dovish = Expectation of liquidity easing
More money in the market, funds willing to take risk, bullish for BTC and ETH.
Additional: The market trades on future expectations, not current rates. Even if no hike, if the tone is hawkish, prices still fall.
5. Three Pitfalls Short-term Traders Must Watch
1. Do not heavily bet on direction before the news
Historical FOMC often has two-way spikes, both longs and shorts get liquidated.
2. Volatility rhythm:
02:00 Decision → first rapid reaction;
02:30 Chairman's speech → real trend emerges, often reverses the first wave.
3. ETH is much more volatile than BTC; volatility on decision night is usually greater, contract risk control priority should be raised.
6. Current Key Price Levels Reference
BTC
Resistance: 64500 | Strong resistance 65300
Support: 63000 | Strong support 62300
ETH
Resistance: 1960 | Strong resistance 2020
Support: 1865 | Strong support 1810 $SNDK From the screenshot, these are the strongest performers on your watchlist at the moment:
Coin Price 24h Change
BOME/USDT 0.0005661 +9.67% 🟢
ACH/USDT 0.004602 +8.13% 🟢
PROS/USDT 0.425 +6.68% 🟢
ZAMA/USDT 0.06448 +6.60% 🟢
OL/USDT 0.005415 +5.99% 🟢
MET/USDT 0.1712 +5.94% 🟢
UMA/USDT 0.3779 +5.68% 🟢
MON/USDT 0.02118 +5.06% 🟢
Market Take
🟢 Risk appetite appears to be returning, with several mid- and low-cap tokens outperforming.
📈 BOME is leading the list, suggesting meme coin momentum is picking up.
💰 ACH, UMA, and MET are seeing healthy buying interest, which may indicate traders are rotating into infrastructure and DeFi-related projects.
⚠️ Since many of these are lower-cap assets, expect higher volatility and sharper pullbacks.
Coins I'd Watch Closely
1. BOME – Strong momentum, but likely to experience quick profit-taking.
2. ACH – Consistent strength; watch for a breakout above recent highs.
3. UMA – Could continue higher if DeFi sentiment improves.
4. MET – Worth monitoring if volume keeps increasing.
If you want swing or futures setups, wait for a pullback to support rather than chasing large green candles.
If your goal is high-risk/high-reward, BOME has the strongest momentum. If you prefer a more measured approach, ACH and UMA may offer a better balance between momentum and stability.$SOL Hoskinson: "Cardano's best days are still ahead"
Meanwhile $ADA sits at ∼$BTC 0.16. That's -95% from the $BTC 3.09 ATH and -53% YTD.
Reality check: governance fights, dev teams shutting down, and the 2026 summit got canceled. Hoskinson even stepped away from socials for a bit before coming back.
Now he’s pushing Treasury reform. Over 600M ADA is needed, and he wants funding spread to more independent teams instead of just IOG running everything.
Hope vs. headlines. The chart says one thing, the founder says another.
#FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight
#SKHynixRecordMiss #HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week
Grayscale has unusually endorsed an altcoin. It published that HYPE has real cash flow and can be valued at "earnings per token" relative to the stock. At the same time, Multicoin Capital is reducing its holdings—a week ago, 395,000 HYPE tokens were transferred to exchanges, and in the early hours of July 29, another 1.97 million HYPE (about $108 million) was withdrawn from staking, with some transferred to Coinbase Prime.
Tokens are falling, institutions are selling, and Grayscale is bullish. The same token, three different signals.
(1) Data
HYPE is currently around $55, having retreated from $61 over the past week, a drop of about 10%. A week ago, Multicoin Capital transferred 395,000 HYPE tokens to exchanges and subsequently applied for redemption of staking. In the early hours of July 29, 1.97 million HYPE tokens (about $108 million) were withdrawn from staking after a 7-day waiting period, with some transferred to Coinbase Prime. GLC Research estimates show that Hyperliquid's "priority fee" mechanism has generated over $5 million in cumulative revenue, with annualized buyback support exceeding $30 million.
(2) The essence of the disagreement: VCs are selling, protocols are profiting
VC reductions are often interpreted by the market as a negative signal—early investors are cashing out, and liquidity pressure is increasing. However, Grayscale posted in support of HYPE, clearly defining it as a "protocol token with real cash flow," rather than a purely governance/speculative token. The token is backed by cash flow, the buyback mechanism is running, and the annualized buyback scale has exceeded $30 million. Whether VCs will exit first or protocol revenue can hold up the price will determine HYPE's trajectory.
(3) Transmission to the crypto market
Grayscale's move to qualify as an altcoin means institutions are trying to evaluate crypto assets using "traditional valuation models." If this logic is accepted by the market, it will drive a shift in token valuation methods from "narrative-driven" to "cash flow-driven." For HYPE, the core variables are: whether protocol revenue growth can continue, whether the buyback mechanism can effectively offset VC share reduction pressure, and whether the "earnings per token" valuation model can be accepted by the broader market.
When VCs are selling, protocols are making money, and institutions are recharacterizing, disagreements themselves mean amplified opportunities or risks. For investors following HYPE, the key data to continuously track is the protocol revenue growth trend and buyback execution, rather than simply focusing on changes in VC holdings. If protocol revenue continues to grow and supports the expansion of buyback scale, HYPE may gradually emerge from its own independent market; If revenue growth slows, VCs will face further pressure to reduce their holdings. The key is whether the protocol itself can generate data to support Grayscale's judgment. $HYPE South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 8% again today, triggering circuit breakers for the second consecutive trading day.
The South Korean stock market is heavily weighted in AI and semiconductor giants such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
When these core assets begin to be continuously sold off, it means capital is reassessing the valuation of global tech assets.
Meanwhile:
The U.S. is about to announce the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision;
Uncertainty remains in the Middle East;
Global capital risk appetite continues to decline.
These factors combined have led to the Asian market coming under pressure first.
This is also not good news for the crypto market.
Because when global capital begins to reduce risk exposure, highly volatile assets tend to be more affected.
So what really matters to watch these two days is not just whether BTC will fall.
The question is whether global risk assets are moving in the same rhythm.
The stock market, crypto market, and commodity market essentially reflect the same thing—changes in capital risk appetite.#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
I believe the core of these three earnings reports is not about whether revenue beats expectations, but whether the "AI money spent can be converted into real cash."
Because there was a recent example with Google—an 82% surge in cloud business was useless; capital expenditures exceeded expectations, cash flow turned negative, and the stock price plunged. After this, the market's view on AI investment has completely changed: previously, companies that dared to spend money were considered good; now, spending must be backed by orders, revenue, and visible returns to count. Among the three, Microsoft has the most stable foundation, Meta has the biggest and most uncertain divergence, and Amazon has the strongest resilience.
In terms of data, I think each of the three has its own strengths and weaknesses.
• Microsoft: The market consensus expects revenue of $87.5 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, and EPS of $4.22. The real lifeline is whether Azure cloud growth can maintain the 39%-40% guidance, and whether M365 Copilot paid seats can continue to climb. Last quarter, capital expenditures already reached $31.9 billion, cutting free cash flow by nearly half. The $190 billion annual investment plan has the market nervous; the biggest fear this time is another upward revision of spending guidance.
• Meta: Expected revenue is $60.2 billion, up 26.6% year-over-year. The core advertising business is very stable, and AI advertising tools have already reached an annualized revenue of $60 billion, with a real increase in conversion rates. But the risk lies entirely in spending: the full-year capital expenditure guidance has been raised to $125-145 billion, nearly doubling, and some institutions warn it may be revised upward again, with free cash flow possibly turning negative in a single quarter. The stock price has already pulled back 25% from its high, preemptively pricing in this anxiety.
• Amazon: Expected revenue is $196.2 billion, up 17% year-over-year. The biggest focus is whether AWS can hit over 31% growth—if it does, it will be the fastest growth since 2022. It still has over $360 billion in unfulfilled orders as a strong base, but it cannot avoid spending issues: quarterly capital expenditures are expected to be around $45 billion, with free cash flow likely turning negative. The last time spending guidance was raised, the stock price dropped 8% in a single day.
Therefore, I believe this is a collective acceptance test for the entire AI sector. The market has shifted from "paying for the AI story" to "pricing AI delivery." Capital expenditures are no longer a positive factor but a risk factor. Spending without corresponding revenue and long-term order support will only lead to sell-offs.