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Murphy | 墨飞学分析
Murphy | 墨飞学分析
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ETH数据二:筹码结构拆解 ETH的URPD上显示,在$2,700-2,800的筹码柱特别高,三根柱子加起来1300w枚左右,占流通量超过10%。 而且,这批筹码浮亏40%却几乎没有移动。 需要说明的是,ETH的URPD机制是账户模型,Glassnode 以每个实体的全部余额计算其加权平均成本。 比如,2月BitMine持有432万枚,当时平均成本约$3,100;到8月又增持148万枚,买入价大致在 $1,500 - $2,200;合并后加权平均成本就在$2,700左右。 持仓量级、成本位置、迁移方向三者同时吻合。 说明这根筹码柱的主体基本可以锁定是BitMine;当然,可能还混着其他被聚类的实体。 还有2个原因: 1、是今年1月的密集成交区; 2、链上质押; 再结合ETH赫芬达尔指数创历史新高,意味着某些大账户供应垄断,导致筹码集中度越来越高。 那大概率和BitMine、ETF以及链上质押有关了。 这带来的直接好处是当价格下跌时,大量流动性被锁住,不再会转换为抛压。 反过来,当ETH价格重回该区间,届时这些筹码是否仍然可以坚定,那就要看ETH当时的叙事和共识了。
Murphy | 墨飞学分析
Murphy | 墨飞学分析
The ETH data you wanted is here.....
It seems like it's been a long time since I mentioned ETH. This round I only bought BTC, not ETH, but that doesn't mean I'm bearish on it. In contrast, ETH remains the strongest mainstream consensus asset after BTC to date. This isn't what I'm saying—ETH investors have proven it through their actions. The current ETH price ($1,900) has retraced -60% from its peak, much smaller than the previous cycle's -80%. However, Conviction Buyers' open interest has reached 31.42 million coins, far surpassing the previous bear bottom of 19.5 million coins, marking a historic high. This shows that no matter how many people on X are fud or even harshly criticize it, it doesn't stop those steadfast investors from continuing to increase their ETH holdings when prices drop. At the same time, the total holdings held by loss sellers and profit takers were also significantly lower than during the bottom of the previous two cycles. Whether or not they are willing to continue selling, there are few chips left to sell, and most tokens do not participate in the turnover. Finally, there is a peculiar phenomenon we cannot ignore: ETH's Hfindhal index has surpassed its inception period in early 2015. This indicates that ETH token concentration is increasing, with certain large account clusters monopolizing supply. This phenomenon began in November 2024. Before that, ETH had followed a 9-year path of decentralized token dispersion, but now it took only 2 years to surpass it

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