Speaking of US stocks and then Bitcoin, the expected 3 AM reversal to pick up people didn't happen. Bitcoin surged straight to the classic 72,000 level that has blocked us for more than half a year in 2024. The 72k level is not only the EMA200 daily line but was also once regarded as a strong support after the 120k peak correction, holding high hopes. But as everyone knows, Bitcoin lingered around 60k for a long time and even once fell below 60k. From the crypto logic perspective alone, 62k was tested repeatedly without breaking, and with continuous macro easing, it should indeed rise. Once it starts to rally, the speed will be very fast, leaving most family members still playing US stocks behind. After all, according to the altcoin pump-and-dump logic, the faster the pump, the cheaper it is—first, retail investors can't get on board in time; second, after chasing, retail investors have high costs, which easily forms a chip peak at the high level, becoming resistance for the next rise or fall. Yesterday, from the contract perspective, I observed that open interest didn't rise but fell. Today, information from @Murphychen888 indicates this rally is led by spot trading. Generally, when the market is driven by spot, it tends to be more sustained and harder to fall. Also, there are no signs of exhaustion now, and below 80k, there isn't much decent resistance. So, provided the macro situation doesn't worsen (there's still about a week of time difference anyway), this round still has enough time and momentum to test the weekly EMA100 resistance around 75-78k. Even from the most conspiratorial angle—that this rally is for a better plunge—it's not a bad thing in the long run

Recently, staying up late to trade US stocks has seriously harmed my health, directly causing high blood pressure. I took a day off today, but with such big market changes, once the market opens, I still have to get back to work. After a day, more information has been disclosed, and the situation has become clearer. Setting aside the sudden interference factor of Bitcoin's sudden rise, the logic of oil prices rising while US stocks fall is very consistent, and it seems oil prices have not yet peaked. So even if Trump intends to keep the US stock market stable during the midterm elections, it doesn't mean the market will keep rising without turning back. At most, the overall trend can be kept upward until the midterm elections in November. If a black swan event occurs, there will be market rescue, but bulldozer-style continuous rises are neither realistic nor in his personal interest. Assuming Trump, Bessent, and Walsh are now cooperating closely without any grudges or information gaps. Assuming they plan to raise interest rates in September, then Bessent's doubling of repurchases yesterday changes from a signal of easing to a prerequisite for rate hikes. Bessent must first suppress long-term interest rates through doubled repurchases to create external conditions for Walsh to raise rates and suppress short-term interest rates. The rate hike is to recharge the Federal Reserve's credibility and is a necessary measure to maintain interest rate differentials when allies generally raise rates. Moreover, the execution details of the doubled repurchases also contain clues about the rate hikes: effective on September 9, then increased again on November 4; one just before the September FOMC, the other the day after the November midterm election vote. This also explains why Bessent was eager to have the Federal Reserve raise the FIMA limit in early August: once the Fed raises rates, the US-Japan interest rate spread widens, and the USD/JPY returns to 16