The most unusual aspect of this round is not that gold has risen above 4600, but that long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high while gold continues to rise. According to traditional textbooks, high interest rates should suppress gold prices; however, the market worries about excessive bond issuance and heavy interest burdens, ultimately relying on currency depreciation to digest the debt. Dalio's answer is straightforward: underweight bonds, allocate 10% to 15% to gold, and keep some BTC. Some studies are more cautious, believing U.S. Treasuries remain the core safe-haven asset, with gold being the most stable among alternative assets. My understanding is that bonds have not completely failed; the source of risk has just changed. When worried about recession, U.S. Treasuries can still serve as a safe haven; when concerned about fiscal deficits, term premiums, and monetary credit, U.S. Treasuries themselves are at the center of the storm, so funds naturally shift to non-sovereign assets. The current market is very interesting: gold is around 4610, $BTC about 77,300, $ETH about 2428; all three are strong but not driven by the same logic. Gold is trading as a credit hedge, BTC serves as both "digital gold" and ETF buying demand, while ETH behaves more like a risk appetite spillover. Currently, funding rates for BTC and ETH are both around 0.01%, slightly bullish but not extreme. So don't lump the three together as safe havens. With rising credit pressure, gold is more stable; with improved liquidity, BTC is more elastic; ETH depends on whether funds can continue to spread from BTC. Going forward, I am more focused on whether this buying momentum can hold when long-term bond yields remain elevated. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战

During lunch, the entire market suddenly crashed like a waterfall. Those who just shouted "The bull is back" must have been shocked awake. $BTC plunged from around 78500 to 76500 within an hour, $ETH dropped from 2514 to a low of 2384, and even the strongest $ZEC was smashed from 823 to 697. All three fell sharply with increased volume. I tend to think this is a washout caused by profit-taking and leverage resonance, not a problem with any single coin. Fortunately, after the drop, it didn’t continue to lie flat. When I scanned the market, BTC had already bounced back above 77200, and ZEC was pulled back to around 790. On OKEx spot in the past 24 hours, BTC’s trading volume was about $1.34 billion, ETH about $870 million, so mainstream liquidity is still there. For altcoins, I look not only at the price increase but also at whether there is money to support it. ZEC rose about 32%, with spot volume around $93 million and contract volume exceeding $1.6 billion, making it the strongest coin to watch today; XRP rose about 17%, spot volume over $300 million, PEPE rose about 18%, volume about $81 million, all with good volume. Although TRUMP rose over 60%, the pullback from the high was too severe, so I’m just watching. However, today is already Saturday, and ETFs will no longer provide new buying power, so next we will focus more on spot support within the exchange. If BTC holds 76500, altcoins still have room to rotate; if it breaks again, the top gainers list could instantly turn into the top losers list. $BTC $ZEC $XRP $PEPE #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？

In this market cycle, I basically learned the most expensive lesson by getting liquidated. The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, originally intended to improve Treasury liquidity, which does not equate to a Fed rate cut or QE. But after long-term yields fell, the market began trading as if financial conditions were easing, and BTC and ETH took off accordingly. In the past few months, prices steadily declined, and everyone kept shouting "bottom fishing," but no one dared to actually buy the dip. This time it really surged, with $BTC reaching as high as around 79,600 and $ETH touching 2,450. I don’t know if the bull market is truly here, but the shorts are definitely gone. The worst part is, I missed the rally and instead kept shorting all the way. I started shorting ETH around 1,920, kept adding to shorts as it rose, and held on, still convincing myself at 2,040 that it would fall back. Before bed, fearing it would keep rising, I opened long positions to hedge, but set take-profit on the longs, thinking the longs would exit first. At 5 a.m., the market surged again; the longs exited, and the shorts were also squeezed out. Looking back at this price action, the most painful thing wasn’t being wrong, but refusing to exit after being wrong. After liquidation, my mind was completely clear. The problem wasn’t just being wrong, but averaging down against the trend without stop losses, and mistaking hedging for a lifesaver. Both my own trades and copy trades increasingly resembled martingale strategies, risking a few thousand in principal to hold positions, until the market finally hit the stop button for me. Going forward, I will still watch BTC and ETH, and also keep an eye on SanDisk, SK Hynix, and weekend altcoins, but only with small test positions. First learn to survive, then talk about how to make profits back. This lesson hurts a lot, but the road must go on. Let’s all keep pushing forward together.

Once Saturday arrives, the market closes, and the incremental capital channel through ETFs is temporarily paused. $BTC surged to around 79,600 before pulling back to 77,500 to consolidate, while $ETH touched 2,450 and then held above 2,400. After two consecutive days of sharp rallies, it's normal for the major coins to take a breather now. I feel that over the weekend, they are more likely to first consolidate at higher levels rather than continue to blindly push higher. However, there's an old saying in crypto: when the majors sleep, altcoins rule. As long as BTC and ETH don't suddenly dive, the funds that missed the main upward wave in the past few days might look for elasticity in smaller coins. Major coins sideways and altcoin rotation is often where the real weekend action happens. The happiest thing is that my $LAB Martingale strategy has finally climbed out of a deep hole. The profit curve once nearly dropped to -100%, but after a bumpy ride through 4 cycles, it finally returned to +3.75%. When I saw it turn positive, I really couldn't help but laugh 😄 In the next couple of days, I plan to pick a few more altcoins to test small-scale strategies, but I won't get carried away just because this one strategy broke even. Liquidity is thin over the weekend; altcoins can rocket up and crash down without reason. My approach is simple: majors stabilize the market, altcoins provide the entertainment, small positions for trial and error, and run once profits are made. It's hard enough to break even once; I can't afford to send myself back into the hole again. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？

The atmosphere around the AI IPO table these past two days has been somewhat subtle. $ANTHROPIC hasn't even made its S-1 public yet, but the market has already pumped up expectations. The price surged from around 150 to 187, touching 190 intraday. The market is trading very straightforwardly: with the document expected at the end of August and fundraising possibly matching or even surpassing SpaceX, combined with rapid revenue growth, the valuation of the "next super IPO" is priced in first. On the other hand, $SPCX is facing a more realistic test. About 319 million shares are unlocking this week, and the market is waiting for early shareholders and employees to cash out, yet the price still holds near the $135 IPO price. SpaceX just completed its 100th mission this year, launching 24 Starlink satellites into orbit. The unlocking increases supply, while launches and Starlink sustain demand, so the selling pressure isn’t as scary as imagined. My understanding is that these two targets are actually trading the same question: how high can the market still value "super growth"? Anthropic’s daily RSI has already exceeded 84, with sentiment clearly running ahead of the filing. After the S-1 is public at the end of the month, people won’t just look at revenue, but also at computing costs, losses, and whether enterprise clients can support the valuation. One is proving that new chips have buyers, the other is about to prove that sky-high fundraising has buyers. Both stories are big; what comes next isn’t about noise, but about delivery. $BTC #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX

This morning I was still wondering if 75,000 could hold, but by the afternoon that question was already outdated. $BTC has surged past 76,000, clearly about to touch 77,000; $ETH has also pushed above 2,390, just one step away from 2,400. The candlesticks are moving so fast that even the strategy can't keep up. At the White House summit, Trump said the US government had discussed accumulating a "substantial amount" of BTC, and also brought up strategic reserves, the CLARITY Act, stablecoins, and banning CBDCs all at once. The market hears something simple: the US attitude toward crypto is shifting from "non-suppression" to "contesting for dominance." But this wave can't be entirely blamed on Trump. On August 19, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of about $706 million, plus nearly $3 billion in liquidations; spot buying pushed the price, shorts covering accelerated it, resulting in this almost relentless acceleration. Most notably, the daily RSI for BTC and ETH has surged to around 95, the market is scorching hot, yet funding rates remain below 0.01%. This indicates that although the market is overheated, it's not entirely contract longs holding the top; spot and ETFs are indeed taking turns pushing. Next, it depends on whether ETFs can continue to flow in, and if there is real transaction support after breaking through 76,000 and 2,400. If you ask me to chase now, my hands really itch; if you ask me to short, I really don't have the guts. At this level, the biggest fear isn't lack of direction, but emotions moving faster than reaction speed. $SNDK #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？

It's no longer a question of bearish or bearish sentiment. With such a divine bullish candle, let me ask you all: watching $BTC break through 75,000, do you want to chase it? I really didn't expect BTC to rise like this. The past few months were dead silent, with trading volume shrinking to the point of boredom, but when it moved, it was an unstoppable explosive surge. From around 64,000 it kept climbing, after breaking through 72,000 it never stopped, the intraday high already pierced 75,000, one divine bullish candle after another, turning the entire market from a dull sideways grind into a bull party. I ignored BTC at 57,000, but I can't afford BTC at 75,000. This surge is so fierce, spot buying is one factor, but short squeeze is the accelerator. Every time the price breaks a resistance level, a batch of short positions is forced to close, and the closing becomes buying pressure, creating a cycle of rising more explosively and exploding more as it rises. But just because 75,000 was touched doesn't mean it has firmly held. Now the daily RSI is close to 95, the short-term heat is almost smoking. What really matters next is whether after the short squeeze ends, ETFs, spot trading, and stablecoin funds can continue to take over. If incremental funds are still coming in, this divine bullish candle might just be the beginning; if only leveraged chasing remains, a high-level pullback won't be gentle. So do you want to chase? Of course. Do I dare to chase directly? I really need to see if 75,000 is a new starting point or a peak waiting for people. $ETH $XAU

Yesterday, $ETH's big bullish candle just wiped out the shorts. Today, seeing it hovering around 2350, I really have no patience left. In the past 24 hours, ETH short liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion, with the largest single liquidation at $108 million. $BTC also broke through $72,000. A couple of days ago, the market's rise seemed absurd, but looking back now, it turns out the absurdity wasn't the price but us shorts still daring to top out. But this rally can't be blamed solely on a short squeeze. ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $189 million in a single day, and money has been flowing in for three consecutive days. Forced liquidations just sparked the fire; ETFs and spot buying are the fuel behind it, which is why ETH is running hotter than BTC. Even more interestingly, $XAU has surged to $4,500. Risk assets and safe-haven assets rising together seems contradictory, but both are trading on a weaker dollar, falling long-term yields, and fiscal risks. The crypto market feeds on liquidity, gold feeds on risk aversion, and neither side is missing out. Now, ETH's one-hour RSI has exceeded 80—it's too hot, seriously overbought, but the short structure has been completely broken. Today also coincides with BTC and ETH options expiration, so it's not surprising to see some back-and-forth liquidation before settlement. If you ask me to short now, I really dare not; if I want to chase, I would only dare to wait for a pullback. Having been trapped once, I definitely don't want to be trapped again by switching sides. #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元

The earnings season these days is quite interesting: a couple of days ago Xiaomi talked about "people, cars, and homes" Today POPMART submitted its report, and next week it's Nvidia's turn to answer whether the money for AI can keep burning. At first glance, POPMART's report looks solid, but on a second look, I'm a bit hesitant to chase. Revenue for the first half of the year was ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8%, but net profit attributable to the parent company only increased by 10.1%. Revenue is still growing, but profit growth is slowing down. The market can no longer just look at how many blind boxes were sold; it also needs to consider profit margins, inventory turnover, and overseas expansion efficiency. The most critical change is the cooling off of LABUBU, while Star People grew nearly sixfold. The good news is that POPMART is not completely tied to a single IP; six IPs generated over ¥1 billion in revenue each, which also proves that its incubation system really has substance; but the bad news is that both Asia-Pacific and the Americas are declining, making the domestic market the main support. Today, Star People takes over, but that doesn't mean it can replicate another LABUBU tomorrow, nor does it mean overseas markets will automatically recover. So I think POPMART hasn't ended its growth but has shifted from a "blockbuster market" to an "operational test": watching whether multiple IPs can continuously take over, whether overseas can accelerate again, and whether profits can catch up with revenue. Next week, Nvidia faces the same situation. One sells emotional value, the other sells computing power, but in front of high valuations, both have to answer the same question: after the story is told, can profits still be realized. $POPMART $ETH $BTC #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？

Last night’s move really buried us shorts underground. But losses can’t be in vain, so I reviewed it again: $BTC surging to 72000 wasn’t a takeoff out of thin air. The first spark came from U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. Treasury raised the single repurchase limit for 10- to 30-year long bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and the 30-year yield immediately fell from around 5.3% to about 5.2%. It’s not QE, but it temporarily eased long-end liquidity and valuation pressure, so risk assets breathed a sigh of relief first. The second spark was the short squeeze. Months of low volatility piled up shorts thicker and thicker. Once BTC broke out of the consolidation range, stop losses, forced liquidations, and chasing the rally triggered simultaneously. Nearly $3 billion in liquidations pushed the rise into a chain reaction stampede. So last night wasn’t a single bullish factor pulling out an 11% jump, but a combination of easing rate pressure colliding with crowded shorts, driving prices higher and higher. Whether it can hold above 72000 next depends on spot trading, ETFs, and stablecoin funds taking over. Tomorrow there are BTC and ETH options expiring, so bulls and bears will continue to wrestle before and after settlement. Currently, bulls clearly have the upper hand, but RSI and funding rates are rising, and more and more people are chasing the rally. I’m not qualified to guess the top now 😭, I need a break. I’m watching from the sidelines now, wondering if this is new money taking over or just a fireworks show bought out by shorts. $ETH #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？