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#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
BlockBeats reports that on October 3, the US added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, far below the market expectation of 90,000, and August data was also revised down by 133,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the nonfarm data release, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October cooled significantly. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of holding rates steady in October rose to 83.9%, while the probability of a rate hike in December is 66.1%. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.36%, and the US dollar index hit a 17-month high.
Next week's market focus will be on the Fed's September meeting minutes, the G7's release of strategic oil reserves, long-term US Treasury yields, and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Regarding the Fed, the September meeting minutes will be released at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. As the market shifts its focus from "whether to hike in October" to "whether to hike in December," the discussion in the minutes about inflation and employment risks, officials' disagreements on further hikes or pauses, and whether the tone is more hawkish or dovish compared to post-meeting remarks will be key points. Additionally, Fed Governor Bowman and St. Louis Fed President Moser will also speak next week.
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 (1) Solana is truly entering the U.S. bank payment system This time is not just a simple ecosystem narrative. Fiserv has brought its digital asset platform into production, with the first application being Roughrider Coin, supported by the North Dakota banking system. Currently, more than 90 banks and credit unions can conduct inter-institutional dollar settlements through the Solana network. It should be noted that the publicly disclosed number of participants does not equal the actual scale of payments already generated, but at least it indicates that Solana is moving further from crypto-native applications to traditional financial infrastructure. (2) Institutional funds continue to increase their holdings SOL Forward Industries latest disclosure shows that as of September 30, the company's holdings of SOL/SOL equivalents have increased from 7.5527 million to 8.5013 million, with about 948,600 added in a single quarter, averaging about $83 per SOL, and holding about 1.4% of Solana's circulating supply. This shows that institutional treasuries still treat SOL as a long-term asset allocation rather than just short-term trading. Meanwhile, on-chain liquidity has also undergone new changes. Recently, USDC Treasury issued an additional $250 million USDC on Solana, with cumulative minting reaching about $750 million in the past 24 hours. It is worth continuing to observe whether these new stablecoins truly convert into on-chain trading and trading过去24小时，加密市场整体爆仓规模暂时不算极端，但从上下方清算密集区来看，市场依然存在明显的“插针+连环清算”风险。 🔶 BTC 24小时清算约 $4.15M，其中空头约占 68%。 目前下方重点关注 $80,900 附近，一旦失守，潜在多头清算强度可能进一步扩大至约 $980M；上方则重点观察 $88,200，突破后空头清算压力或达到约 $970M。 与此同时，鲸鱼近期出现一定程度的减仓，过去一周累计减少约 27,500 BTC，价值约$2.31B。 但另一边，Binance稳定币资金规模继续增加，近30天增幅约 37%，余额接近 $29.8B。这说明市场虽然存在获利了结，但场外流动性并没有明显枯竭，后续仍需要关注资金是否真正转向现货买盘。 🔷 ETH ETH过去24小时清算约 $3.47M，空头占比约 55%。 下方 $2,560 是一个重要清算区域，若快速跌破，潜在多头清算规模约 $710M；上方 $2,805 附近则堆积着较大的空头流动性，突破后可能触发约 $680M 的空头清算。 值得注意的是，ETH鲸鱼并没有明显跟随市场减仓，反而逆势增加约 57,000 ETH，价值约STRK suddenly surged, with a 24-hour increase close to 28%, entering a high volatility zone in the short term.
Currently, STRK has broken through $0.055, now trading around $0.05493. This level looks strong, but the faster the rise, the more caution is needed against profit-taking after the spike.
My judgment is that $0.055 has shifted from a resistance level to a short-term bull-bear dividing line. If it can hold above $0.055 with volume and continue to break through $0.058 to $0.06, there is a chance for the market to open up further; but if it falls back below $0.055 after the spike, beware of a false breakout, and a short-term pullback to around $0.052 or even $0.05 is possible.
From a trading perspective, it is not recommended to chase the price directly after a 27% increase; it is better to wait for a pullback confirmation. Those already holding positions can consider taking profits in batches and set stop losses on the remaining positions; those wanting to participate should prioritize waiting for support confirmation around $0.055 rather than heavy buying during the rapid rise.
The biggest risk for STRK now is not that it can't rise, but that it rises too fast.
In this market, correctly predicting the direction is only the first step; position sizing and stop losses ultimately determine whether profits can be preserved.The most counterintuitive scene today: bad news like border troop deployments, India-Pakistan tensions, and terror attack classifications all emerged together, yet the panic index VIX closed at 15.3, down 6.59%.
US stocks rose in sync, gold fell 0.68%, and crude oil dropped 1.77%. What the market is actually trading is "risk appetite returning," not geopolitical risk.
But this wave of appetite bypassed crypto: BTC only rose 0.26%, ETH rose 0.69%, and the spot ETF representing institutional holdings actually fell 0.48%, showing traditional funds didn’t come in today.
Money on the floor didn’t leave either; it just moved places: SAND traded 520 million with an 11.5% rise, ZEC’s volume surged to 680 million but price only rose 0.2%, a typical case of high volume with stagnant price.
The small-cap frenzy looks lively, but behind it often lies a liquidity trap—low volume, sharp rises, and quick exits when taking over positions. $SAND $BTC $ETHCT's third day after listing saw its price surge from $0.17 to $0.62, then retreat back near $0.50.
Within one day, the amplitude exceeded 70%.
This is not ordinary sideways trading.
Concrete (CT) officially launched on September 30, quickly gaining volume. On October 2, it peaked at $0.6274, a record high, but then rapidly pulled back. It currently trades around $0.51, about 20% below its previous high.
What’s more notable is the trading volume.
In the past 24 hours, CT’s trading volume has remained close to $500 million, several times its own market cap. This means the market activity far exceeds its current size.
Meanwhile, Binance launched the CTUSDT perpetual contract on October 1, with up to 20x leverage; Binance Alpha also started CT trading events. Spot, contracts, and event funds are all flowing in almost simultaneously.
So what really matters for CT now is not how much it rose in a day.
It’s whether, after the first round of sharp rises and falls, a new dense trading zone can gradually form near $0.50.
Look first to the upside at $0.56–$0.62, and to the downside near $0.48.
The most interesting aspect of new coins is often not the first big green candle, but who remains after the heat subsides.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $ETH $BTC $CT ━━ Preferred SAND 🟢 (strongest momentum + rate -0.58%, short squeeze fuel) Current price 0.0731, current price 1hE21 0.0730 (1) Buy long 0.0725–0.0730 (1hE21 + buy wall 0.0728) (2) Add position 0.0712 (4hE9, add only when volume shrinks) Stop loss 0.0704 (break below 4hE9) Take profit TP1 0.0745 / TP2 0.0765 / TP3 0.0837 (24h high) Position Main position, ≤3% ━━ AXS 🟢 (4h volume increase, but order book turned thin) Current price 1.262 (1) 1.22 (1hE9 / 4hE21 resonance) (2) 1.20 (4hE21) Stop loss 1.19 (broke 24h low) Take profit TP1 1.28 / TP2 1.305 ⚠️ 24h amount only $0.8M Ultra-thin → Small position ≤1.5%, watch out for slippage ━━ MANA ⚪ (Dead volume, weakest, not buying for now) Current price 0.1026, volume ratio 0.06 No volume Only volume increased and pulled back 0.1035 (1hE21) turns bullish: stop loss at 0.1017, target 0.1042 / 0.1152; otherwise, wait and see ━━ Discipline • Three currencies and the same sector rise and fall together→ Pick only one to trade, don't buy at the same time (essentially adding leverage) • Break daily moving average E200 $BTC BTC is currently around 84700, with the 15-minute Bollinger Bands extremely narrow, indicating a typical compression and oscillation market.
Short-term resistance above is at 84812, support below at 84644. Last night, the price surged to 84998 but faced resistance and quickly fell back, repeatedly testing the upper resistance but failing to break through, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth in a small range.
Trading volume has clearly shrunk; without volume breakout, false breakouts are frequent. The ratio of large holders between bulls and bears is not significant, with no one-sided sentiment.
Key points:
The major bullish structure is still intact, but the minor momentum is insufficient. Do not prematurely bet on direction; only a volume-supported hold above 84800 offers a chance to push to new highs; a drop below 84600 will lead to further retesting of lower support.
In this low-volume oscillation, try to minimize contract trading to avoid frequent stop-loss sweeps. Spot holders should calmly hold their base positions. $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 。 This time, I took an ETH-USDT perpetual contract with 8x leverage, with an average opening price of about 2,734.60 USDT, and eventually closed all positions around 2,681.90 USDT. 📌 Position: 900 ETH contract 💰 Profit this time: about 4,320 USDT 📈 Yield: about 14.8% Position ⏳: several days The real difficulty is not opening a position, but the holding process. ETH has rebounded multiple times in recent days, short positions once suffered significant unrealized losses, and several sudden rallies have caused significant psychological pressure. Fortunately, I didn't change plans arbitrarily because of short-term fluctuations, and eventually waited until the price weakened again to cash in my profits. The recent market environment has also been quite complicated. US September nonfarm payrolls were significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, ostensibly reinforcing rate cut expectations, but BTC and ETH did not continue to strengthen after the data release; Meanwhile, spot ETF capital flows showed signs of cooling, and risk assets were still constrained by US Treasury yields, oil prices, and geopolitical tensions. So just because this trade is profitable doesn't mean the same method works every time. Contract trading is not just about direction, but also about position, patience, and stop-loss discipline. Taking profits when the market gives you opportunities and admitting mistakes when you make mistakes are far more important than blindly adding positions or chasing gains and selling losses. ⚠️ Contracts are high-risk trades; the higher the leverage, the greater the impact of volatility on principal. The above is just a personal trading review, no need to complyIn 1929, when the Great Depression began, Americans did not realize they were in a depression; they just felt that work was becoming more competitive and harder to find, the stock market and housing prices kept falling, and incomes kept decreasing. By 1933, housing prices had dropped by 51%, and people's income levels had regressed to those of 1910, starting to hit bottom and rebound. It was only later, when people looked back on this period, that it was called the "Great Depression"…结果看完只有一个感觉：这盘面比白开水还淡。 $BTC BTC现报 84,720美元，日内小幅回落约0.15%。昨晚最高触及 85,060美元，短暂冲过85,000后并没有站稳，很快又回到84,500美元附近。 现在真正需要关注的，不是某一个整数关口，而是 83,000—85,600美元这一整片密集博弈区。 多次冲击上方压力却无法形成有效突破，说明卖方筹码仍然不少；与此同时，衍生品市场的杠杆资金继续堆积，一旦突破失败并向下加速，容易出现连锁平仓。 更值得注意的是，市场资金近期明显没有前几周那么积极。美国现货BTC ETF虽然此前连续出现资金净流入，但最新阶段已经出现降温迹象，BTC价格依旧没能重新站稳87,000美元上方。 宏观环境同样不算轻松。9月美国非农新增就业仅 2.9万人，明显低于市场此前预期，失业率升至 4.2%。数据本身偏弱，本应强化降息交易，但市场随后又开始担忧经济放缓、财政压力以及长端美债收益率等问题。 所以现在的BTC有点尴尬： 下方有资金承接，上方有套牢盘和卖压，宏观又缺乏足够强的催化剂。 只要85,500附近不能有效站稳，暂时还是把它当成震荡市场看待。真要向上突破，Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$SAND top accounts are more bullish, but position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio is 1.36, position ratio is 0.93; the difference in the proportion of the two types of long positions has expanded by 1.01 percentage points. There are more bullish accounts, but a long position size advantage has not yet formed.The load-bearing beam already has visible diagonal cracks to the naked eye, and the cement poured on top hasn't even solidified yet, but they're rushing to add the top floor?
Just took off the labor gloves soaked in slurry, checked the chain monitoring, and saw that the general contractor who brags about a high-performance building every day is actually driving heavy dump trucks dumping spot goods outside the mixer. The big holder's address dumped tens of millions of dollars worth of chips in less than an hour; this is not normal unloading and retracement, it's clearly that the main load-bearing structure's shear wall had its rebar pulled out.
The upper Bollinger Band is stuck tight at 120.18, just like the topping formwork stuck immovably at the elevation line. The 120.08 position looks like leveling the ground but is actually a layer of loose sand without piling; even a slight move by an excavator will cause the entire work surface to collapse instantly.
Retail investors are still staring at the 3D renderings fantasizing about a successful topping out, while behind the scenes the whale foreman has already dismantled the scaffolding and fled overnight. The foundation is not compacted; no matter how high you build, a gust of wind will cause a catastrophic collapse. Expecting a fake short-term rebound here is like gambling your life on a suspended basket without a fall arrest hook.
- Target: $SOL 🔴
- Entry: 119.80 - 120.50
- TP1: 117.20
- TP2: 114.50
- SL: 122.30
Once the supporting scaffolding deforms and breaks under stress, the collapse speed will be faster than a mudslide.
#CoinMoveAlert$SAND Should I run? Several times the profit doubled or more, but it was all taken away by it The late stage of a bull market is often accompanied by collective excitement of "missing out if you don't buy."
Realistic dilemmas:
Sharing profit screenshots in groups, mistaking market trends for skill;
Ignoring the slowdown in stablecoin issuance and the rebound in exchange balances;
Increasing leverage and altcoin positions more and more.
Two optional paths:
Path A: The hotter the sentiment, the more to reduce positions, swapping high-risk assets like $DOGE, $SHIB for $BTC, $ETH, and stablecoins, maintaining liquidity.
Path B: Stop opening new positions, realize profits in batches, set trailing stop profits for core positions, and decisively reduce leverage if the trend line is broken.
When buying coins feels like picking up money, the cycle has often entered a high-risk zone.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 Showing two current long positions stuck in loss, to show friends in the group the other side of real trading.
SNDK 4x full position long, holding 30 units, floating loss 1662U, drawdown 12.89%. Small position for trial and error, there is volatility, but at least it’s not out of control. The real heavy one is HYPE, 7000 units long 4x full position, floating loss 32456U, drawdown 20.7%. This wave of altcoin/platform coin sentiment was missed, after entering the market it kept getting hammered, the account looks really bad.
Many people only show profits, not floating losses. Futures inherently have profits and losses from the same source; it’s great when riding the trend, but painful during drawdowns. 4x leverage looks mild, but full position mode still hides risks: if maintenance margin is breached, forced liquidation won’t spare you just because you "are optimistic." Holding positions is not faith, it’s lack of a bottom line; reduce positions and stop losses when needed, don’t turn trial and error into gambling with your life.
Macro factors aren’t cooperating either: US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, rate cut expectations are wavering; BTC, ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm; US Treasury yields keep hitting new highs, long-term rate pressure remains, risk asset valuations are being suppressed. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Brushing away the thick layers of yellow earth, you might think this peak K-line marks the dawn of a new era, but in reality, it is just the last ember spewed out before the ancient city of Pompeii's destruction in BC.
There is nothing new under the sun. Opening the fragmented contracts on the Code of Hammurabi's stele from four thousand years ago, or comparing the clay tablets before the collapse of the 17th-century Amsterdam tulip auction, the greed and panic of mortals have never changed a bit in the rhythm of cycles.
Currently, $ETH tops at 2691.04, firmly stuck at the weathered rock edge of the Bollinger Band upper limit 2691.67, with a 1-hour RSI of 54.5, superficially mild but fundamentally hollow. Fanatical believers chase the illusion of a so-called breakout, but as a periodizer, I only watch my nearly sacred capital curve—its earlier segment rising at a perfect 45-degree angle like the colonnades of the ancient Greek Parthenon, absolutely not allowing a reckless chase here to carve out a fractured retracement fault.
Every retracement caused by blind chasing destroys a beautiful artistic relief, a flaw that archaeologists cannot tolerate. While the masses indulge in false prosperity inscriptions, the scraper for shorting is already aimed at the fragile sediment layers.
- Target: $ETH 🔴
- Entry: 2688.00 - 2694.00
- TP1: 2678.00
- TP2: 2665.00
- SL: 2705.00
Stratigraphy does not lie; when the load-bearing pillar peels off, the entire temple instantly turns to ruins.🏛️📜
#CryptoEarningsPressureCurrently, $BTC is around $84,930, and in the short term, it is repeatedly testing the $84,900–$85,050 range. There have already been multiple rallies and pullbacks in this area, indicating that selling pressure remains obvious above. I still choose to stay short and not rush to enter. 🔹 Bullish scenario: If BTC can hold above $85,050 and, after a round of sideways consolidation, break out again on high volume, the effectiveness of this breakout will be even higher, with the target continuing to look at the liquidity zone near $86,500–$87,300. But if it falls below $84,500 again, this bullish structure will need to be temporarily abandoned. 🔻 Bearish scenario: If prices are again blocked near $84,900–$85,050, short-term pressure may first be at $84,100. If this level still fails, the next step is to focus on the $83,700–$83,850 area. Only if it climbs back above $85,200 and remains stable will the short-term bearish outlook need to be reassessed. 📌 Latest market changes: The previously mentioned defense zone near $82,800 was once again validated by the market today. Although the price briefly fell back to $83,169, it did not truly break below this key support zone and subsequently returned above $84K. Meanwhile, recent U.S. employment data has clearly weakened, and market repricing of rate cut expectations has temporarily weighed on risk assets#美伊局势持续紧张, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves. Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have driven up oil prices. The G7 just announced through IEA coordination to release up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel reserves. The action will be launched immediately and will last for four months, with a focus on diesel release in the first 20 days. 👉🏻 Short-term impact: The release directly increases market supply, equivalent to about a day's global consumption, especially in the advance release of diesel. After the news broke, oil prices came under short-term pressure, with WTI (CL) and Brent (BZ) both retreating. However, US-Iran tensions and Middle East supply risks persist, so prices have not collapsed and are showing signs of rebound. Short-term volatility has increased, with limited downside estimated. 👉🏻 Long-term impact: Reserve release is only an emergency, not a fundamental supply problem. If the US-Iran conflict continues or escalate, risks to Middle East exports and straits persist, and global inventories will take time to truly replenish. Diesel shortages are more pronounced, and refinery coordination and utilization rates are limited. In the long term, geopolitical premiums are hard to dissipate, oil prices remain at high levels, and once reserves are depleted, they may become even tighter. 👉🏻 Overall assessment: Short-term bearish (supply shocks suppressing prices), medium- to long-term bias to neutral to bullish (geopolitical risks not resolved, release is just a buffer). This is not a one-sided sharp decline, but more high-level fluctuations with amplified volatility. 👉🏻 Beginner's Tip: Crude oil is heavily affected by geopolitical factors; don't blindly chase short positions based solely on release news. Pay attention to actual release progress, Middle East export data, and the latest developments in the US and Iran. Keep positions light, set stop-losses, and don't go all out betting on direction. 👉🏻 Right now最近一组JiuZong的实盘数据引起了不少交易者关注。 数据显示，其账户整体规模约 3,146万美元，过去30天累计盈利约 218万美元，阶段胜率达到 70.8%，最大回撤控制在 7%左右。 真正值得研究的，并不是账户有多大，而是他的资金配置非常集中： BTC约占61%，ETH约占38%，其他资产不足1%。 没有到处追热点，也没有频繁切换赛道，更没有因为某个山寨币突然拉升就临时改变交易计划。核心逻辑非常简单——把流动性最好、交易深度最高的两个主流资产反复做熟。 更有意思的是，这30天的收益曲线并不是一路上涨。 期间账户一度出现超过 280万美元的浮亏，市场回撤时同样承受了很大的压力。但他没有因为短期波动就直接砍仓，而是通过控制杠杆、调整仓位和分批交易，让账户重新回到增长轨道。 这才是大资金交易和普通交易最大的区别之一： 不是永远不亏，而是亏损出现时依然有能力留在牌桌上。 从近期交易方式来看，他使用的依然是相对克制的杠杆模式，大约 4倍左右。 BTC主要在 83,000—84,000美元附近分批建立仓位，价格反弹到 84,200—85,000美元区域后逐步减仓，而不是一次性满仓押方向。 If you can't clearly explain what supports BNB, don't rush to focus on its price fluctuations. You can't just look at the coin price; you need to consider the ecosystem's usage demand and platform risks.
BNB is the "passport" of the Binance ecosystem: paying fees, on-chain Gas, participating in Launchpad and some DApps, so the demand is observable.
To judge whether it's worth it, I watch three signals: first, real usage demand—the more active the trading, transfers, and application interactions, the more justified it is; second, supply changes—the platform regularly burns tokens, but burning doesn't necessarily mean a price increase, so it must be considered together with demand and liquidity; third, platform and compliance risks—the ecosystem is deeply tied, which is both an advantage and a source of risk.
In practice, cross-verify on-chain activity, burn data, and platform dynamics together, and focus when all three align. $BNB $BTC $ETHNonfarm payrolls unexpectedly at 29,000, yet BTC is still idling around 85,000
The biggest news this weekend isn't in the crypto world, but in Washington. The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, less than half of the expected 84,000. The data for the previous two months was revised down by 60,000, and July was even changed to a decrease of 10,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
What's ridiculous? The probability of a Fed rate hike in October has been crushed to almost zero, with bets on no change surging to 83.7%.
In the crypto world: BTC surged to 87,000 overnight but couldn't hold, retreating back to 84,700, almost flat in 24 hours (+0.1%). ETH at 2694 (+0.5%), SOL at 120 (+0.5%). Funding rates for BTC/ETH are just slightly positive, while SOL has turned negative, with bulls unwilling even to pay interest.
Fear & Greed index at 67, greedy, but the market shows no greed at all. Today, the key thing to watch: can 85,000 hold? If it holds, the unexpected nonfarm data might find buyers; if not, the grinding continues.
Do you think BTC can close above 85,000 today? Stonk suddenly stirred things up, and Meme has a new hype point!
Last night, Stonk launched a new "community coin" gameplay: holding classic Solana Memes like USELESS and PENGU, the upcoming new community model coins will reward holders with up to 33%.
Once the news came out, both coins immediately caught the spotlight.
First, look at USELESS, which reacted much more strongly. It's now around 0.24, up 2.6% in 24 hours, rebounding sharply from the 0.213 low point, with volume picking up as well. Simply put, once people heard "can share the profits," sentiment was ignited.
PENGU is much calmer, currently around 0.0092, down slightly by 0.6%. Although it’s also on the first batch list, volume hasn’t noticeably increased. It looks more like a follow-up rise after the news stimulus, without real capital resonance yet.
Looking at the broader market, there’s been basically no big movement in the past 8 hours. $BTC was hammered near 87K earlier, with over $400 million in long positions liquidated, combined with only 29,000 new jobs added in the non-farm payroll, far below expectations, causing interest rate expectations to wobble again.
Now BTC is grinding around 84,700, $ETH is slightly stronger, up about 0.4% near 2690. Weekend liquidity is naturally thin, and there’s no major catalyst yet to fully drive the market.
So for this wave, I’m more inclined to think: Meme has a story, but no clear trend yet. Don’t rush to chase over the weekend; focus on whether Monday’s volume can pick up. If it doesn’t, the news hype will likely cool off again.$MET whale buys in $30,000, but the market pulls up 6.6%: 0.3198 bearish
A giant whale buys $30,000 of $MET, but the market pulls up 6.6% — I am bearish at this level.
On-chain monitoring shows a PUMP whale buying $30,000 of $MET. After the event, MET moved from 0.305 to 0.3133, +2.72% — sentiment is heating up, but the chips haven't caught up.
24h volume is 1,417,401 USDT, volume ratio only 0.423, low volume pull-up with no one to follow.
MACD crossed down 2 days ago above zero line, green bars are still expanding; RSI 55.2 slightly strong is superficial, 7d still at -17.75%, 30d +69.17% profit positions queued above 0.32.
US stock crypto concept average -1.15%, COINBASE alone -3.32%; fear and greed index 65 leaning greedy, long-short account ratio only 0.645, bulls lack fuel.
Resistance above: 0.3198
Support below: 0.2651 (daily MA30)
If it rebounds to 0.3198 but doesn't break through, go short; stop loss at 0.3232, target 0.3037, if broken look to 0.2651. For those holding $MET long, reduce position at 0.3198 first.
Watching the market now, follow me for the next signal.
$MET $BTCUS nonfarm payrolls in September increased by only about 29,000, significantly below market expectations, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. Traditionally, cooling employment usually means the Fed has more room to cut rates in the future, which should theoretically benefit gold and Bitcoin. But the market's actual reaction is completely different—after the data release, $BTC surged for a while, then quickly retreated, putting pressure on gold as well. The reason may be that the logic of market trading is shifting. Currently, capital is no longer focused solely on "whether the Fed will cut rates," but rather on the interplay between inflation, crude oil, fiscal deficits, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields. If oil prices continue to rise while long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, market concerns about future inflation and fiscal pressure will flare up again. This means: 📌 weak employment ≠ assets will inevitably rise 📌. If long-term yields continue to rise, the holding cost of non-interest-bearing assets will also increase 📌. Rising crude oil + rising long-term bond yields + a stronger dollar may simultaneously suppress gold and BTC 📌 ETF funds. After signs of cooling in funding, short-term chasing will become more cautious. From the current market perspective, BTC is focusing on the $84,000 area in the short term, while the 85,500–86,000 USD range can be reestablished. If 84K is breached, the market may retest the $82,500–83,000 range. ETH is focusing on support near $2,650, with attention on 2,720–2.7The military risk in the Strait of Hormuz is rising, but energy prices are falling, with bulls and bears in a tug of war.
Actually, the logic behind Bitcoin is not directly benefiting from the war. What really affects it is the expectation of "oil prices not exploding, and the Federal Reserve not being hawkish."
For crypto, the real things to watch are these three:
1️⃣ Whether Brent can hold steady at a low level — holding steady means a resurgence of rate cut trades.
2️⃣ Whether stablecoins have net inflows — real money entering the space means a second leg up.
3️⃣ Whether $BTC can hold key levels, and whether $ETH can keep up. If it doesn't, it's just a macro sentiment pulse, not a trend reversal.
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% US September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000, significantly below the market expectation of about 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%; Meanwhile, employment data for July and August was revised down by about 60,000 jobs, with average hourly earnings year-on-year growth slowing to around 3%. This weak employment report briefly reinforced market expectations for the Fed pausing rate hikes in October, but risk assets did not sustain a one-sided rally; after BTC's surge, profit-taking actually occurred. Currently, the market seems to be digesting positive news rather than starting a new trend. Bulls have started to reduce positions, short-term funds are becoming noticeably cautious, and the focus going forward is not chasing gains, but observing whether support can withstand selling pressure. BTC: Around $84,600 After a short-term pullback from highs, the first line of support is around 84,000, with further attention on the $83,200–83,500 range. As long as this range does not break below with heavy volume, the overall structure can still be seen as a high-level consolidation. Above the level, first watch $85,500–$86,000; only after stabilizing will there be another challenge above $87,000; If 84,000 is breached, it will be necessary to guard against further support toward $83,000 or even $82,000. ETH: Around $2,660 ETH follows BTC in pullback, remaining weak in the short term. Focus on $2,620–$2,640 below; if there is a stabilization and clear support here, considering a rebound at lower levels would be more stable. First, watch the 2,700–$2,720 range, which is heavy86000 is not a new starting point, it’s just the gap that has been filled back
$BTC surged to 87239, up 2.06% in 24 hours.
It looks like a breakout, but it’s actually just reclaiming the price level that was lost earlier.
How this number is calculated:
86000 is the threshold, 87239 is the intraday high.
The difference between the two numbers is 1239, an increase of less than 1.5%.
The so-called breakout is only this much.
Where those chasing in get stuck:
RSI is already close to 70, the higher this number, the more crowded the buyers.
$ETH current price is 2752, only 25 away from the previous high of 2777.
There is room for a catch-up rally, but 25 points is not really space.
Funds have indeed returned, with a 24-hour turnover exceeding 9 billion U.
But nearly 3 billion dollars in options are to be settled this week.
Volatility will be amplified before and after settlement, and the direction is not decided by retail investors.
85000 and 2700 are pullback levels, not support levels.
Orders hanging there are waiting for those chasing highs to be executed first.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 $BTC $ETH The fact that hackers convert various stolen tokens into ETH is something everyone should ponder carefully. When altcoin markets surge, they are hyped to the sky, but when it comes to transferring large assets through decentralized channels, everyone ultimately returns to Ethereum. $ETH $BNB is close to resistance, what evidence is most lacking for a breakout
$BNB is up 1.80% in 24 hours, currently priced at 783.47, only 1.19% away from the 1-hour resistance at 792.82. This kind of position often creates an illusion: a brief intraday break is mistaken for a completed breakout. The real weighty answer is whether it can hold after breaking through.
Volume does not support the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.17 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
Putting emotions aside, the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 780.7438, currently strong; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 774.3013, also currently strong. The short-term cycle exposes changes, the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of crowding; when they conflict, beware of oscillations. You cannot just pick the side that favors you.
What is most scarce now is not directional slogans, but the willingness to wait for verification. The closer to the key level, the more the price should be allowed to do its homework before deciding whether the original judgment holds. Let the key level give the result first, then discussing direction will be more honest. Do you think this touch will turn into a valid breakout, or will it still be pushed back into the range by resistance? The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.For funds less than 10,000 dollars,
if you want to play it safe, should you choose $BTC
or MicroStrategy $MSTR???
Bitcoin has truly been one of the highest appreciating assets in human history over the past decade.
Now that its scale is getting bigger, the growth rate definitely can't maintain the previous levels.
In past bull markets, BTC rose approximately 639x, 575x, 115x, 21.4x, and 8.15x respectively.
Looking at it this way, if this round can still achieve 2-4x, that would already be very good.
For example, reaching 200,000 USD, but for small funds, 2-4x is indeed hard to achieve significant wealth leaps.
So what to do???
My understanding is, you can study MSTR as an elastic vehicle for BTC.
Since 2020, MSTR has been buying BTC on a large scale, and its stock price has become increasingly correlated with BTC's movement.
In the past two bull markets, MSTR rose about 12.5x and 37.4x respectively.
In the last round, BTC rose about 8x
$MSTR rose nearly 38x, roughly 5 times BTC's increase.
My view is, for funds under 10,000, if you want to be safe but still want to amplify returns, you can look at MicroStrategy's stock. Relatively, the risk is about the same as Bitcoin, but the returns are much higher.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 The old saying goes, "Bitcoin in the left hand, BNB in the right hand." Why isn't the other hand holding Ethereum? The difference isn't in technology, but in whether the demand can be seen by ordinary people.
The role of BTC is the clearest: the market treats it as a value anchor, focusing on scarcity, consensus, and capital inflow, not relying on the explosion of any particular application.
BNB takes a different path: transaction fees, on-chain gas, and burn mechanisms are directly linked to scenarios. As long as the platform and the chain are active, there is reason to observe.
But this doesn't mean ETH has no value; its path is more complex—mainnet fees, burning, issuance, staking, and L2 all need to be considered together.
To judge these two coins, I only look at three signals: whether real users are growing, whether on-chain activity can be sustained, and whether the token mechanism can meet ecological demands. Putting these into the same table and tracking monthly is more reliable than just following slogans to trade. $BNB $BTC $ETH$BNB Damn it! Looking at this BNB market, my molars are getting crushed. 😂
Pure capital hard fight, the candlesticks look like they've been gnawed by a dog, jumping up and down. Those who understand know, this is obviously a dog trader shaking the market, trying to throw off all the undecided holders. 🚀
At the 783.4 level, I directly set an ambush. Don't ask, just all in. Stop loss strictly at 775, if it breaks, accept the loss. Take profit first looks at the 800 round number, then reduce positions.
This market is really something, handle it as you see fit. Anyway, I'm charging in first, don't regret it later when it goes up.
👇👇👇
The above does not constitute investment advice, profits and losses are your own responsibility. 美国最新就业数据明显走弱，9月非农就业仅增加约 2.9万人，远低于市场此前约 8.5万—9万人的预期，失业率维持在 4.2%，同时此前就业数据也被进一步下修。 数据公布后，市场第一反应非常直接——就业降温强化了降息预期，资金迅速涌入风险资产，BTC短线一度冲向 8.7万美元附近。但这波上涨并没有持续多久，随后卖压快速增加，价格重新回落，期间市场爆发超过 3亿美元的合约清算，其中多头占据较大比例。 为什么“利好”反而变成了冲高回落？ 核心还是三个字：缺买盘。 弱非农确实属于偏鸽派信号，但宏观利好 ≠ BTC必然持续上涨。如果市场此前已经提前交易降息预期，那么数据落地后，短线资金反而可能选择兑现利润。 另外，当前市场流动性并不算特别充裕，BTC在 8.6万—8.7万美元附近遇到明显抛压。一旦价格无法站稳关键阻力，追高资金开始止损，杠杆多头集中平仓，就很容易形成“上涨—爆仓—进一步下跌”的连锁反应。 与此同时，BTC、ETH现货ETF资金热度也出现降温迹象，说明宏观数据带来的买盘并没有完全转化成持续的现货需求。 所以这次非农给出的真正启示是： 数据利好只能负责点火，不能保证行情持续燃烧。 接I am your elder, $ETH currently offers the clearest view of the market's diverse conditions.
When it previously surged to the high of 2777, the community was full of people showing off their long positions, shouting that it would head straight to 3000, all full of confidence. After a rapid pullback, many immediately reversed their stance, shouting about a top and a big drop everywhere. The swings in sentiment are even faster than the candlestick fluctuations.
On the four-hour chart, it is now tugging back and forth between 2660 and 2710. My 50x long position, opened at an average price of 2674.45, currently has an unrealized profit of 33.48%. The MACD is almost hugging the zero line, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and the RSI remains at the midpoint, neither overbought nor oversold.
Market funds are now diverging; funds continue to flow into BTC, but incremental funds for Ethereum can't keep up, so it can only move sideways in a grinding market.
Don't let the online noise sway your stance back and forth. 2710 is the immediate hurdle; only a valid breakout can restart the upward attack to test previous highs. If it repeatedly fails to break through, it is likely to retest the key support at 2648.
Don't recklessly increase your position size just because of floating profits. In leveraged trading, profits made on the way up can be completely wiped out by a single round of volatile spikes. This is a high-level consolidation and correction, not a one-sided bull market. Don't mistake the rebound for a signal to blindly charge.
The real direction will only become clear after the range is completely broken. At this stage, chasing longs or shorts recklessly is the easiest way to get hit repeatedly.
#ETHHighLevelRangeConsolidation MainstreamCoinFundDivergenceObservation #CryptoMarketWaitingForKeyDataGuidanceAt six in the morning, just as dawn breaks, my mind is full of K-line charts, and I can't sleep soundly. I might as well get up and check the market on my phone. After looking, I just feel a wave of emptiness; this market is even more boring than plain water.
$BTC
Current price 84,736, down slightly by 0.10%. Last night it peaked at 84,998, just two bucks short. It stubbornly can't break 85,000, then it falls back to 84,500.
The 85,000 level is not just a random line. The $83,000 to $85,500 range is a dense resistance zone, with leverage in the derivatives market continuously accumulating. If the breakout fails, it can easily trigger a chain of forced liquidations. More importantly, the average cost for holders of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is still at $87,830, meaning this group is still at a loss. As long as the price rebounds near $87,000, the unlocking positions will flood out—this psychological barrier is holding strong, so a clean breakout in the short term is unrealistic.
Also, don't forget, the Fed's April FOMC voted 8 to 4 to keep rates unchanged, with four dissenting votes—the first time since 1992. The statement was hawkish, pushing rate cut expectations further out. In a high interest rate environment, the opportunity cost for institutions to allocate to crypto assets is rising. Without macro fuel, what can BTC rely on to surge?
I'm just going to hang up and play dead.
$ETH
Current price 2,688, up 0.27%. The highest touched 2,689, just a hair away from 2,700, but then it stalled.
The 2,700 level has been watched by analysts for a long time. Michaël van de Poppe says ETH's structure isn't broken; multiple tests of resistance without breaking suggest a breakout is brewing. Once 2,700 is taken, the upside space opens. But there are opposing views—some analysts point out bearish divergences on the 4-hour and daily charts for $ETH, suggesting even if it rises, the peak might only reach around 2,620. Both logics are self-consistent; in short, the market has no consensus at this level.
Holding long positions feels like a life sentence—no volatility, no passion, not even a chance to do T-trading. Every day I hope it will act tough like a man, but it just performs a dead calm wave.
$BNB
Current price 786.7, up 1.00%. It's the only one looking good, slowly climbing from 764. But seeing none of it in my account makes me even more bitter.
$BNB's rise has fundamental support. The 35th quarterly burn just completed, removing 1.569 million $BNB from circulation, reducing the total supply to about 135 million, continuously shrinking the supply side. Coupled with news of the reopening of commercial traffic through Iran's Strait of Hormuz, market risk appetite is warming overall, and BNB is riding this tailwind.
But honestly, $BNB's rise has little to do with most retail investors. It's always like this—the coins that rise are always someone else's, and the ones I buy are always dead weight. Now chasing is impossible; I can only watch enviously.
Halfway through the holiday, others are enjoying peaceful times on social media, while I'm here staring blankly at this indecisive market. $BTC is held down by ETF unlocking pressure, $ETH is stuck in a tug of war between bulls and bears, $BNB is up but unrelated to you—each coin is doing its own thing, none giving peace of mind.
Closing the app, going back to catch up on sleep.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $PUMP has surged sharply these days
With platform revenue sustainable and continuous buybacks, there is ongoing buying pressure on the supply side. In the short term, it is at a high level after a rapid rise, with RSI relatively high, prone to oscillate around $0.0060–$0.0065. If it can hold above $0.006 and break through $0.0065 with volume, the next observation area is near the previous high; if it falls below $0.0054–$0.0055 again, it may retest $0.005 or lower. $BTC Currently fluctuating around $84,800, after rebounding did not further expand gains, returning to the previous range of consolidation. The most common mistake now is rushing to judge the trend immediately after seeing a candlestick. In the short term, first look at the 85,500–86,000 range. If volume increases and the line holds, there will be a chance to further test the 86,800–87,400 level; If it rises and then falls back again, then it is more appropriate to define this as a rebound within high-level consolidation rather than the start of a new rally. Downward, first watch 84,000–84,300; if it falls, look at around 83,500. Signals of cooling liquidity have also appeared. On September 30, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $148.7 million, and ETH ETFs about $59.6 million, interrupting BTC's nine-day streak of net inflows. However, on October 1, BTC ETFs resumed net inflows of about $102.7 million, indicating that the current situation is more like capital switching rather than a complete exit. $WLD Currently around $0.56. Although short-term remains relatively strong after a rebound, buying momentum has weakened after retreating from highs. This is not suitable to chase long just because it rises, nor is there any need to rush short after a pullback. A return to 0.57–0.58 will indicate buyers have regained control; If it continues to fall below 0.55, be alert to the rebound structure being disrupted. $INJ Currently around $7.8To be honest, I myself thought it was unlikely this trade would last this long; luck played a big part. Last night around midnight while watching $CT, the market hadn't fully started yet, and I thought it was just another frustrating sideways consolidation.
CT held support around 0.3767 without breaking, the bottom was flat and stable, and there were buyers below. At that time, I suggested following the long position but not to overcommit.
Now it's at 0.4919, with an unrealized gain of +609.5%. This profit feels good. The market is about waiting for the right moment, and profits come from holding; panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking.
I took profit on 70%, keeping the remaining 30% at cost to protect it, letting the profits run, and if it pulls back, I won’t let the gains turn uncomfortable.
For friends who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and move when the next signal appears.
$SOL $SNDK Sacrificing pawns to protect the queen is the most ruthless move in this game.
On the current $GALFT board, Black has just made a non-lethal pressure move—only down 1.95% in 24 hours, which to a grandmaster is hardly an attack, just a probing restraint. The truly interesting part is the piece positioning: the price is already touching the lower Bollinger Band, with only 0.1% breathing room in the short term, and the mid-term even crossing the boundary to -3%. This is a typical "pawn chain pressed to the baseline" structure. The short-term RSI has dropped to 32.7, with a clear 1-hour buy signal, while the long-term RSI at 45.0 remains neutral, indicating this is not a collapse but a buildup.
I've been playing chess for over thirty years, and the biggest taboo is to panic and capture pieces just because the opponent sacrifices them. The market is the same—when it hits the oversold zone, it's not telling you to run, but to calculate.
My setup is laid out like this: the real entry point is not at the current price but 4.2% below, at $0.87. This is the "trap square" I deliberately left open, letting panic sellers deliver the last pawn right to my mouth. If the price doesn't turn back and counterattacks directly, I'd rather miss the opportunity than force a trade at a suboptimal level. This is discipline.
The first target above is $0.97, 6.7% from the current price, a weak spot on the opponent's king's wing. Once attacked, momentum will self-reinforce. The second target is $0.95, +4.7%, a steady profit-taking step—take one city first, then plan for the next move. The stop loss is set at $0.78, -14.1%. It looks wide, but this is a structural level—breaking this line invalidates the entire midgame plan, turning sacrifice into a giveaway. I will immediately concede and exit, never fighting to the death.
For position sizing, I allocate no more than 30% of total forces. The reason is simple: the short-term RSI hasn't truly fallen below the extreme 30 zone, the Bollinger Band position is low but the price is still gradually declining, with no "forced response after check." So this is a probing deployment, not a full-scale attack.
Remember, grandmasters never move just because a step "looks cheap." The 1-hour RSI below 38 signal combined with the price clinging to the Bollinger Band lower limit at 0.1% is a double restraint—the opponent's pieces are locked by me. In the endgame, often a single pawn difference decides the outcome.
Now, it's my turn to move.
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.87 (current price -4.2%)
Take Profit 1: 0.97 (+6.7%)
Take Profit 2: 0.95 (+4.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.78 (-14.1%) #strategyplaybookThe real big money-making opportunities basically aren't tenfold overnight. Look at Facebook, tenfold in 9 years; Google, tenfold in 9 years; Nvidia, tenfold in 7 years; Salesforce, tenfold in 10 years. Bitcoin is the same. When the spot ETF was approved in January 2024, it basically meant officially "ringing the bell" on Wall Street, with the price around $40,000 to $45,000. It's been just over two years since then. If you treat this price as Bitcoin's "institutional IPO price," then tenfold would be $400,000 to $450,000. At this pace, within 7 years, or even less, we might see that. Don't always think about buying today and doubling tomorrow; big money is made by enduring. $BTC Dogecoin can now run applications, this time it's not just slogans
This time Dogecoin really got things done. On September 30th, the DogeOS public testnet opened, which simply means: previously Dogecoin could only be used for transfers and tipping, now developers can run applications on it.
This was done by the MyDoge wallet team. Technically compatible with Ethereum, developers from there can just port and tweak their code to use it, so the barrier is low. Fees are paid in DOGE, the more applications there are, the more scenarios DOGE gets spent in, which is more practical than shouting "consensus" a thousand times. The first batch of projects is already in place, including trading, lending, prediction markets, and several games, the lineup is solid.
Some asked me if this counts as good news. I think it does, and it's significant. Dogecoin has talked about payments for so many years, the story is almost over, now it's like opening a new track. The foundation also said they hope it becomes a springboard for the next batch of startups.
Of course, the $DOGE testnet still has a way to go before the mainnet, don't expect a revolution tomorrow. But the direction is right, the rest is just a matter of time. $DOGE $ETH $BTC Don't be fooled by the dazzling dome rendering of that decentralized storage blueprint; the load-bearing structure of the $FIL plot is currently emitting unsettling fine cracks.
A 24-hour slight rise of 4.11%, with the price forcibly pushed up to $0.75. Outsiders see the commotion and think the foundation has been renovated; I scan it with a rangefinder—this is simply the construction team attaching decorative panels to the load-bearing wall. The short-term RSI has already surged to 66.5, approaching the threshold of the overbought zone; meanwhile, the long-term RSI is only 49.3, not even standing above the midpoint. What does this indicate? It means this rally is a temporary support from short-term scaffolding, and the underlying reinforced concrete (long-term buying) hasn't been properly poured.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands stress chart: the short-term price is already at the 81% position, with only 0.8% buffer space left to the upper band; the mid-term is even more extreme, with the price directly hitting 102%, exceeding the upper band by 0.1%. When a project's price breaks above the mid-term upper band, it's like a tower without dampers hitting a limit wall in the wind—the rebound force will be very strong. And what about support at the lower band? There's a 3.8% to 4.9% settlement space from the current price. Structurally, this is a typical top-heavy, bottom-light scenario.
Some in the market talk about the StorjChapter11 story, but I only care about the load transfer path. Once the narrative's foundation loosens, the building's gravity will complete the rest of the fall on its own. My trading blueprint is simple: do not add any redundant components at the top.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.78 (current price +4.1%)
Take Profit 1: 0.70 (-6.8%)
Take Profit 2: 0.71 (-4.6%)
Stop Loss: 0.87 (+16.5%)
The current 0.75 is a cantilever structure; the short-term gain has overdrawn the 4.11% budget, and the take profit target directly looks at the Bollinger lower band’s 3.8% to 4.9% settlement zone. Don’t be fooled by the RSI’s false heat of 66.5; the real overbought zone is above 70, and this is just a critical point of structural risk accumulation.
A project that can’t even hold above the long-term moving average midpoint (49.3), no matter how beautiful its superstructure is, is just a model on a sandbox. Without continuously developed load-bearing walls being poured, any rebound is just decorative ring beams of a castle in the air. #storjchapter11$PONS 24-hour burn and position analysis
Burn addresses increased to 1 million, the highest recently
c479 increased holdings by 3.08 million
98BA increased holdings by 2.47 million
62ae increased holdings by 1.53 million
Pool decreased by 3.44 million, possibly liquidity withdrawn or transferred to other addresses
Others basically unchanged.
The candlestick chart clearly shows suppression; 0.4 is not the bottom but close to the bottom.
Bought spot in the live market, grateful for the opportunity to buy at a low price.
Did not look at position data when buying, decision made purely based on the candlestick chart.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% In Micron's quarterly report, the market is focusing on gross margin in the opposite direction. $MU Many people first saw that the FY27 Q1 gross margin guidance was 86.25%, 75 basis points lower than the buyer's expected 87%. It seems the price hikes have stopped. No. The company has split it themselves, and about $1 billion was from incentives, new plant start-ups, and other costs. After excluding this, gross margin is about 87.8%, about 80 basis points higher than the buyer's expectations. Revenue and EPS are exceeding. Last quarter's actual results: revenue $54.2 billion, gross margin 87%, EPS $33.4. Buyer expectations were roughly $52.9 billion, 87%, and 33.3%. Next quarter guidance: $61.5 billion ±1.5 billion, EPS 38.15 ±1. Buyer expectations are 59.1 billion, 3.74 billion. So this isn't a failed price hike. It's that the profit statement is being squeezed by one-time costs, and prices themselves are still rising. But this also proves that the slope of storage is slowly slowing. But personally, I think what we really need to look at are the last two sentences. Management says supply and demand in 2027 and 2028 will be tighter than in 2026. Even with cleanroom expansion already included in the industry, there's no timeline for supply-demand rebalancing. Prices will rise in FY27, just with a slowdown in the month-on-month slope. Stuck by two things: long-term contracts and how much customers can afford. That's what 'higher for longer' means. It's not a vertical surge every quarter, but rather🔥 The candlestick chart looks lively, but ETF funds have started to "go their separate ways."
There's a detail in the current market worth watching:
🟠 BTC ETF: Funds are still flowing in, with the big brother remaining the institutional focus;
🔵 ETH ETF: Recently showing fund outflows;
🟣 SOL ETF: Fund enthusiasm is also cooling down.
What does this mean?
Market sentiment may not have turned bearish, but funds have begun to realign. Previously, they rose together; now it feels more like choosing "who is worth holding on to."
So don't just focus on green or red candlesticks.
What really matters is: whether funds follow the rise, and whether money steps in after a pullback.
Prices can act, but fund flows are usually more honest.
The above is just personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB Damn it! This BNB market manipulation is making my scalp tingle, with the dog whales at 784 poking back and forth, clearly trying to clear leverage.💡
From a pure capital perspective, the support orders around 784.6 are as dense as a city wall; every time it drops, it's instantly eaten up. This isn't something retail investors can pull off. The resistance is between 798 and 805; once there's a volume breakout, it will head straight for the previous high.
My strategy is simple: buy in batches around 784.6, set stop loss below 775, and accept the loss if it breaks. Don't go heavy, don't all-in; this market is all about who has the strongest nerves.
If you want to follow, place your orders on the lower side of the market card; don't wait for the price to rise before chasing. Are you going to lay this trap or not? 👇👇👇A certain CEX has once again suspended BRC-20 withdrawals.
Retail investors don't care how nicely you write your announcements; if there are coins in the account but you can't withdraw them, what's the difference from having nothing?
Usually, everyone buys and sells within the CEX ledger, but when it comes to actual withdrawals, once the switch is turned off, everyone becomes obedient.
So now I increasingly feel that the UniHexa path is the right one.
BRC-20 and Runes are originally things on Bitcoin, so why should CEXs decide the price every day?
For your own coins, you still need your own platform. $ORDI A friend who trades asked me last night: What's the big event next week?
I said, check the calendar, earnings reports are basically empty, just that September meeting minutes early Thursday morning.
He was stunned: That's it?
Yes, that's it.
What can really shake the market this week isn't some data, but the recording of a Fed insider argument that's about to be released.
The previous nonfarm payroll was very weak, but long-term US Treasury yields kept pushing up, a tug of war.
If the minutes show strong disagreements, the market will have to rethink the rate hike path.
To be clear, people aren't afraid of hikes, they're afraid the Fed itself hasn't figured it out.
At times like this, it's easiest to get whipsawed by news.
My stance: no rush to take sides.
Wait for that release at 2 a.m. Thursday, see which way the dollar and Treasuries move first, then decide whether to follow.
Guessing now is just asking for trouble.
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 $ETH On Friday night, the nonfarm payroll came out: September's new jobs were only 29,000, while the market expected about 90,000. In July, it was even revised to negative 10,000. According to reports, after the data came out, cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold briefly strengthened, while oil prices fell by more than 3%. My first reaction after reading was that this data closely matched my own relationship history: expected 90,000, actually 29,000, plus a correction saying "previous calculations were also wrong." The logic behind weak employment is simple: when the economy weakens, the room for rate hikes is squeezed. The market starts wanting to cut rates, so risk assets naturally rejoice. But there's another line here According to Twitter reports, the G7 interim energy meeting decided to release 100 million barrels of oil reserves over four months, prioritizing diesel, indicating that supply shocks are still ongoing. Inflation hasn't really gone far ahead, so now it's an awkward situation: employment is worsening, prices haven't improved, and the Fed wants to rescue but doesn't dare to. This is called stagflation narrative, like in relationships—wanting both security and freedom, pleasing neither side. How do you view the crypto world? My observations have three points: First, is BTC a risk asset or a hedge? After this round of data, the answer is "a bit of both." A strong rally that day indicates rate cut expectations are dominant, but once stagflation narratives are confirmed, they will still be sold as risk assets first. Second, don't change your life plan just because of a single candlestick. Daily data: BTC about $84,700, ETH about $2,686, both gains within 1%. The market is actually very restrained, much more stable than our sentiment. Third, in a bull market, do two things: look for stocks with high accuracy and qualitativeness, then hold onto and buy a bunch of random stocks