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What does BTC look like now?
It's like a game that has already started, but the referee hasn't blown the crucial whistle yet.
Today BTC returned to around $86,000, with the market clearly more active than in the past few days. Meanwhile, the cumulative net inflow of the US spot BTC ETF in September was about $2.65 billion, the second highest monthly inflow since October 2025. On October 1, the ETF also recorded a net inflow of about $103 million. (The Block)
The funds haven't completely left.
But the issue now is that the market is about to face the US September non-farm payrolls.
Currently, the market expects about 90,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. This data could directly affect the market's judgment on the Fed's interest rate path in October. (Reuters)
So what really matters for BTC tonight is not just the price movement.
On the upside, watch around $87,000.
On the downside, focus on the $85,000 area.
If BTC stays suppressed near $87,000 before the non-farm data, it means funds are still waiting for confirmation; if there is a sudden volume surge at this key level, the market rhythm could change rapidly.
The biggest contradiction now is:
ETF funds have returned, BTC has stood back above $86,000, but the macro data that can truly change market expectations hasn't landed yet.
Don't rush to guess the answer tonight.
Because the moment the market really chooses a direction may be right after the data is released.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
$BTC BTC kicked me off the bus, but my altcoin is about to 2x... 😭➡️🚀 5 hours to Non-Farm Payroll and my portfolio is a mess. My perfect Short Grid for BTC / ETH / SOL got REKT today. BTC grid: -16.65% LOSS Why? BTC pumped to $85k and OKX showed: "Price out of range, strategy has paused." Bro, you didn't even let me earn grid fees, you just kicked me out. ETH and SOL grids also in unpaired loss, bleeding... BUT WAIT. That random RESOLV short I opened with only $1.24 margin? Now +1.3U profit = +94.#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
The September non-farm payrolls will be announced tonight, with interest rate hike expectations becoming the focus.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm.
The September non-farm payrolls will be released at 8:30 PM tonight. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 90,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. These are just expectations. If employment and wages both come in strong, concerns about rate hikes may heat up again. We can't just focus on new job additions.
Let's update the ETF data for $BTC first. On September 30, the US saw a net outflow of about $148.7 million, but on October 1, it turned into a net inflow of $102.7 million. This inflow hasn't yet made up for the previous day's outflow, but at least buying interest has reappeared. I'm more concerned whether this demand can continue after the non-farm payrolls. If rate hike expectations ease and inflows continue, the rebound will have a stronger foundation; only if sentiment heats up, the momentum may still be insufficient.
For $ETH, the capital performance is weaker. On September 30, there was a net outflow of about $59.6 million, and on October 1, outflows continued with about $55.4 million, marking three consecutive trading days of net outflows. I won't yet equate macroeconomic warming directly with a catch-up rally for it. First, let's see if redemptions converge, then look for new buying interest. The same non-farm payroll data affects different assets differently, and this must be judged in combination with their own capital situations.
In the latest trading day, BTC and ETH diverged again. Tonight, we need to look at interest rate expectations and actual capital flows together.#BTCETHETFOutflows The interesting part isn't that ETF flows turned negative. It's that BTC and ETH are now seeing outflows together 👀
BTC funds lost ~$173M after a nine-session $3.1B inflow streak, while ETH logged a third straight day of outflows.
With BTC profit-taking hitting a YTD high and spot demand cooling, this looks like a real test of who buys next.
A pause after strong inflows is normal. Persistent outflows would tell a very different story.$GALA
The blockchain gaming sector is warming up together today, and it's leading the way upward.
GALA rose 11.16 points intraday, priced at 0.0025, with trading volume reaching 30 million USD.
This kind of small-cap old coin rises fast and falls fast too; we won't chase the highs, and will let go if it falls below 0.0024.
$GALA
$GALA It is expected to fluctuate for a while until the 120 moving average comes down before it can continue to break down. Let's see if the MACD will form a death cross downward; if upward, there is a small resistance at 0.236, if downward, there is a resistance at 181.92. There has been a bottom touch now, waiting online for two large bearish candles to break 181.92. If it can't break, a second bottom touch with insufficient rebound strength is also possible. The two bearish divergences indeed indicate a downward trend.
This trade was impulsive; I didn't choose a good risk-reward point. Opened at 183, the risk-reward ratio is exactly 1:3, too foolish, too foolish, too foolish.
It's not that the short position is problematic, but the entry point is. I hope everything goes as I said, leaving it to time. If this trade is wrong, I still need time to reflect.$ZRO The most concerning issue is not the price fluctuation itself, but that after the price moves a certain distance, participation does not keep up.
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.05 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour trends appearing strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
The current price is 1.846, about 11.16% above the 1-hour support at 1.64, and about 5.20% below the resistance at 1.942. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 1.942 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it falls below 1.64, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 1.481. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 1.942 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Is this volume contraction movement a sign of stable chips, or is the market lacking relay momentum?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.📈 Current SOL Market Status
• Technical Perspective: SOL is currently consolidating in the $120-124 range. The MACD indicator is nearly flat, indicating a brief balance between bulls and bears. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting the market is awaiting guidance on the direction of a major move.
• Capital Perspective: The previous rally was high quality, with SOL application revenue hitting a 9-month high in September ($180 million), and a weekly net inflow of $188 million into Solana spot ETFs. However, recent signs of capital outflow (ETF net outflows for two consecutive days) reflect profit-taking pressure at elevated levels.
🕒 Key Monitoring Tips for Tonight
• First 10 minutes: Focus on the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the 10-year US Treasury yield. Rising rate hike expectations will suppress SOL. When the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5.3%, risk assets (including SOL) may come under pressure.
• Post-data Watershed: Bulls need to effectively break and hold above $124.95 (recent resistance) to open up upside potential; bears, if they drive the price to break below the $116 support level, may weaken the short-term trend.