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英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保的消息短期提振了AI硬件与风险资产偏好，但其落地存在变数且首期工程需2028年完工，核心矛盾在于短线情绪溢价与远期高杠杆信用风险的割裂。
在盘面事实层面，该笔担保旨在支持OpenAI租赁俄亥俄州10GW巨型数据中心，总投入超5000亿美元。市场直接将此解读为AI资本开支未见顶，带动算力硬件仓位回补并推升整体风险偏好。
当前驱动因素排序为：远期算力需求锁定与信用背书改善排序第一，宏观资金成本与降息预期排序第二，大模型实际商业化变现能力排序第三。这种排序促使资金优先押注硬件基础设施，但忽略了远期债务传递对通胀和利率环境的间接传导。
上行剧本需满足双方正式签署协议且美股算力板块稳步走高。触发条件为英伟达成功兜底低成本贷款并锁定GPU长周期采购，需要观察的变量是算力赛道现金流兑现情况，若美联储降息节奏超预期的宏观利好叠加，风险偏好将进一步扩散；失效信号则是协议在磋商阶段破裂。
下行剧本的触发条件在于短线买预期卖事实的盘面获利回吐，以及OpenAI商业化变现不及预期导致租金支付困难。远期债务风险直接向英伟达信用端传导，需要观察的变量是缺乏业绩支撑的AI题材估值承压程度，失效信号为巨额担保获得投资级金融机构补充出资。
若美联储降息节奏放缓或CLARITY法案等宏观监管变量出现剧烈波动，宏观政策对主流资产的决定性作用将重构资金仓位分布，此时单一产业担保消息的传导效应将彻底失效。
未来7天最核心的观察变量是双方能否敲定正式担保协议，以及美股算力板块在情绪冲高后的持仓稳定度。
#贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟 #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过日内高点0.17u，日内低点0.143u，现价0.145u，24小时最大跌幅11.3%；跌破0.14u短期心理支撑，抹平前一日全部修复涨幅，为下一步瀑布行情铺垫 链上筹码：此前出货的团队关联地址再次转出799万枚LAB至交易所，大额囤币冷钱包无任何增持动作；现货交易所持仓库存持续走高，长线资金全部观望离场。 即将暴跌四大核心利空逻辑 1. 新一轮代币解锁预期发酵，抛压提前计价（核心导火索） 8月将迎来团队大额份额解锁，合计4630万枚LAB流入流通盘；市场提前预判庄家解锁后继续集中出货，短线抄底资金选择提前止盈规避风险，增量资金完全断流，直接引发价格回落。 2. 链上内幕地址持续转移代币，市场恐慌情绪升温 链上监测显示团队关联实体仍持有8150万枚LAB未抛售，7月27日再度拆分小额代币转入交易所，投资者担忧后续持续砸盘，跟风减仓加剧抛压。 3. 短期反弹无基本面利好支撑，纯超跌修复行情结束 前一日小幅反弹仅依靠超跌抄底资金博弈，7月27日无AI产品更新、机构合作等实质性利好落地；项目叙事已被内幕交易丑闻击穿，不存在长期资金进场托底。 4. 技术面短线超买，程序化止损集中触发 单日小幅#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
China's storage industry has reached a landmark moment. On July 27, Changxin Technology officially debuted on the STAR Market, soaring significantly on its first day of trading, with its market value once surpassing ¥3.3 trillion, becoming one of the highest-valued listed companies in the A-share market. This also marks the official entry of domestic storage into the global capital market stage.
In recent years, the global storage chip market has long been dominated by giants such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. The AI wave has further driven explosive demand for HBM and high-end DRAM, with orders and capital continuously concentrating on Korean manufacturers. Just before Changxin's listing, Anthropic signed supply cooperation agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix respectively, and Nvidia also announced an investment in Korea's Naver, further strengthening Korea's advantage in the AI storage industry chain.
Changxin Technology's listing introduces a new variable to the global storage competition. As domestic DRAM capacity continues to ramp up, Chinese companies are entering the global storage industry competition system, which will not only affect market share but may also change industry pricing power and expansion pace in the future.
Notably, the Korean KOSPI index quickly retreated after rising in early trading that day, reflecting the market's reassessment of the future competitive landscape of the global storage industry. Moving from a "duopoly battle" to "three-way competition," what truly deserves attention in the future is not just stock price performance but DRAM price trends, capital expenditures of major manufacturers, and whether AI demand can continue to support a new cycle of industry prosperity.
$BTC $ETH $LAB 不少人把美股科技财报和币圈行情强行绑定，这个逻辑其实过度理想化。
资本市场交易预期不假，但不能直接推演到加密市场。谷歌、特斯拉加码AI，只能代表企业自身战略，不等于增量资金一定会流入币圈。机构配置风险资产有着严格划分，科技股和加密资产是两套评估体系，联动更多是短期情绪共振，不存在稳定传导逻辑。
大饼高位震荡，未必是资金看好后市，更多是存量资金博弈。当下市场缺少实质性新增入场资金，单纯依靠美股情绪带动的行情很难持久。
以太坊承载各类赛道的说法已经说了很久，概念叙事不等于真实资金落地。很多热点还停留在预期阶段，短期很难转化为实打实的链上收益。
不要高估外部消息的影响力。币圈自有筹码结构、合约爆仓节奏。就算科技巨头持续押注AI，倘若加密市场内部资金出逃，外部利好也很难托住盘面，依靠美股财报判断加密行情，参考价值十分有限。
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#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ Deadlock at 65000: Three Forces Tugging, AI Focuses on One Variable
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis
Brothers, the weekend market was like a stagnant pool, with BTC oscillating narrowly around 65000, daily volatility shrinking to less than $1000. But beneath the surface, the tug-of-war among three forces has reached its limit.
First Force: Geopolitical Premium Fades, but Oil Prices Haven't Bottomed
After 13 consecutive days of clashes between the US and Iran, Trump ordered a pause on airstrikes, opening a window for diplomatic talks. Brent crude plunged over 5% from above $100 to $86, quickly eroding geopolitical risk premiums. This is positive for risk assets—lower oil prices ease inflation pressure and cool rate hike expectations.
However, $86 oil is still not low. The Strait of Hormuz transit issue remains unresolved, and the "war premium" on oil prices still has at least $5-10 not fully squeezed out. As long as oil stays above $80, the inflation narrative won't completely fade.
Second Force: ETF Inflows Continue, but Institutional Confidence Wavers
After seven consecutive days of net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, $465 million flowed out over Thursday and Friday last week, breaking the streak. BlackRock's IBIT led the outflows, indicating institutions are returning but remain hesitant—ready to flee at the slightest sign of trouble.
Still, for the whole week, ETFs netted $33.8 million inflow, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows after eight straight weeks of $8.3 billion outflows. The trend is improving, but the foundation is shaky.
Third Force: July Fed Rate Hike—36% Chance or 0%?
This is the most divisive variable. A Reuters survey of 104 economists unanimously bets on no change, but the rate futures market prices in a 36% chance of a hike. 104 vs. 0 sounds stark, but futures markets often reflect policy changes earlier—as "The Big Short" said, economists see "what should happen," traders see "what might happen."
The case for a surprise hike isn't absurd: Brent just broke $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.69%, a high since January 2025. Renaissance Macro's chief economist wrote a report titled "Why Not Hike Now?" questioning, "If you can hike now, why wait until September?"
Since Fed Chair Wash took office, anti-inflation resolve has been emphasized, and FOMC votes supporting hikes are increasing. A July surprise hike would hit risk assets hard; no change but a hawkish statement would also pressure markets; only an unexpectedly dovish stance would be truly bullish.
Conclusion of the Three-Force Game
BTC is stuck around 65000; a breakout upward requires oil prices to keep falling, ETFs to keep buying, and the Fed to turn dovish—all three simultaneously, which is tough.
A breakdown only needs one variable to worsen.
AIX is neither bullish nor bearish today; the strategy is simple: wait for one variable to break first.
If oil falls below 80, that's bullish; if the Fed surprises with a hike, that's bearish. Until these events unfold, direction is a random walk.
Specific Trading Strategy
BTC:
No action near 65000. If oil drops below 80 and ETFs resume inflows, wait to confirm a hold above 65500 on a pullback before entering; if BTC falls below 64000 before the Fed meeting, wait for stabilization between 63500-63800. Stop loss set 0.5%-0.8% below key levels.
ETH:
Same logic as BTC, watch around 1950, key support at 1900-1910, key resistance at 1960-1970.
Core Idea:
Before Wednesday's FOMC decision, doing nothing is the best strategy.
Direction will come sooner or later; be ready with ammo when it does.
💬 Comment below: Do you bet on a July rate hike or not?
Personal opinion, not investment advice. Markets carry risks; be responsible for yourself.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #FederalReserve #FOMC #AITradingThis week, everything piled up at once.
The Federal Reserve meets early Thursday morning, and the market is in an uproar—38% chance of a rate hike vs. 70% chance of holding steady, an unusually large divergence. Oil prices just fell back from above $100, cooling inflation a bit, but last week's initial jobless claims hit 187,000, the lowest since 1969, showing an incredibly strong job market, making it hard for the Fed to ease up.
On the same day, Microsoft $MSFT and Meta $META report earnings, with Amazon and Apple following on Thursday. Google $GOOGL already crashed last week—AI spending caused its first-ever negative cash flow since going public. If these four don’t deliver decent results this week, tech stocks will continue to get hit.
Another thing: FTX will start its fifth round of compensation on Friday, $900 million. The previous four rounds have already paid out $10 billion, and some of this money will flow back into the crypto space.
For $BTC: the short-term level of 65,000 is quite delicate. The drop in oil prices plus ceasefire expectations gave a breather, but the AI sector is absorbing capital aggressively, pulling funds away from tech stocks, so $BTC clearly lacks momentum to push to 66,000. Once earnings come out Wednesday and Thursday, if tech stocks crash, funds might flow back into crypto; if tech stocks stay strong, $BTC will have to grind around 65,000. Let’s see what the Fed says early Thursday morning.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 PAKISTAN ESTABLISHES DEDICATED CRYPTO INVESTIGATION UNIT AMID COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGY □□
The Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) of Pakistan has officially established a dedicated Crypto Investigation Unit under the National Command and Control Centre (NC3). This regulatory enforcement move aims to counter digital asset illicit financial flows, including money laundering, financial fraud, and unlawful activity financing. Adding this specialized investigative body strengthens Pakistan's cybersecurity posture while building a transparent regulatory environment.
The establishment of this investigative unit builds upon the Virtual Assets Act passed by Pakistan's Parliament in March 2026, which established the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) as a permanent federal regulator. Beyond security enforcement, Pakistan continues to advance national digital asset initiatives, including plans for a national stablecoin, establishing a sovereign Bitcoin reserve, allocating 2,000 MW of power for Bitcoin mining, and partnering to tokenize $2 billion in state assets.
However, these national crypto ambitions face ongoing social and religious challenges. In June 2026, Jamia Darul Uloom Karachi, a prominent Islamic institution, issued a fatwa stating cryptocurrencies do not constitute valid property under Sharia law. In response, PVARA Chairman Bilal bin Saqib urged Islamic scholars to distinguish speculative tokens from fully backed digital assets like stablecoins or blockchain-based sukuk, positioning Pakistan to lead in Sharia-compliant digital finance.
Balancing rigorous security enforcement with forward-looking blockchain initiatives across major exchanges strengthens regional market credibility. Standardized regulatory frameworks offer institutional capital a more secure environment for long-term deployment.
In your opinion, will establishing dedicated crypto investigative units help developing nations accelerate the formal integration and legal framework adoption of digital assets?
(DYOR). $BTC $ETH $SHIB In the morning, Bitcoin and Ethereum both closed higher due to favorable geopolitical risks. Bitcoin is currently holding above the 65,000 mark, while Ethereum reached the 1982 level and is under pressure. In the morning, Lao Yang Shipan's large bing Kongdan successfully secured 559 points of space Luodang. My Shipan style has always followed the strategy of going with the big and rejecting the small. If the trend is bearish, I patiently wait for a rebound to catch and buy a pullback, only taking my own share of profit, not greedy for more, just aiming for a steady and positive finish.
From the current market perspective, the short-term moving average on the 4-hour scale of Bitcoin has turned upward, with price comparisons running above the moving average. The short-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish, with strong support at 64,800 below. The MACD golden cross is running, and the red bars are showing moderate volume, indicating that bulls have a short-term advantage, but there is no overbought volume increase, indicating there is still room for a slight rally. The lows are still slowly rising, the highs are moving upward, and an upward channel is taking shape. Although there are slight pullbacks and shakeouts along the way, the number of virtual breakouts has decreased, and the trend is gradually strengthening slightly.
In the afternoon, go long on the bullseye market between 64,800 and 65,300, targeting around 67,000
In the afternoon, Ether went long in the 1960-1930 range, targeting around 2000 #Changxin Technology listed, global storage competition adds variables $BTC $ETH Google plummeted 7%, wiping out $300 billion in market value. Tesla recorded its largest weekly drop since 2022.
Last week's script was simple: the better the earnings, the higher the AI spending, the worse the drop.
Now, the baton has passed to Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon.
Tonight and tomorrow night, three earnings reports will directly determine whether this round of AI anxiety stops here or continues to crash.
Let's start with Microsoft.
The stock price has fallen nearly 30% from its peak. The market expects earnings per share of $4.21 and revenue of $87.4 billion.
Two key numbers to watch:
First, Azure growth. It must reach or exceed 39%-40%. If it falls below this, the market will immediately turn hostile—after spending $190 billion in capital expenditures, if Azure still can't perform, the AI narrative will break apart.
Second, the fiscal 2027 capital expenditure guidance. Analysts expect around $220 billion. If it exceeds this, concerns about free cash flow will intensify. If it's below expectations, the market will breathe a sigh of relief—indicating controlled spending.
Azure must maintain growth, and CapEx must show discipline. Both targets must be met for Microsoft to catch a break.
Next, Meta.
The 2026 capital expenditure guidance has been raised to $125 billion to $145 billion, nearly double that of 2025. The stock price has dropped nearly 10% year-to-date.
UBS expects Meta's earnings per share to remain almost flat over the next two years—AI investments are directly pressuring profit margins and operating leverage.
Mark Zuckerberg is betting on one thing: AI can push ad monetization efficiency to the next level.
If Q2 ad revenue growth falters, the market won't be forgiving. If growth exceeds expectations, the AI narrative can be extended.
Meta's earnings report essentially tests whether AI can make advertising more valuable.
Finally, Amazon.
2026 capital expenditure is $200 billion, on par with Google's $205 billion. AWS's latest quarter revenue jumped 28% to $37.6 billion, marking the fastest growth in nearly 15 quarters.
But one figure is painful: Amazon's free cash flow over the past 12 months is only $1.2 billion. The $200 billion capital expenditure is completely draining cash flow.
AWS growth must sustain above 30% for the market to believe the $200 billion spend is worthwhile. If growth slows, combined with the $200 billion CapEx outlook, after-hours performance could mirror Google's.
To speak frankly—
Google's plunge was no accident; it was a warning.
The four companies' combined 2026 capital expenditure is about $725 billion, a 77% year-over-year surge. This money must yield returns.
Wall Street is no longer buying stories. They want numbers.
Microsoft's Azure growth, Meta's ad revenue, Amazon's AWS growth—these three sets of numbers will decide whether the AI narrative continues to ferment or completely fizzles out.
Finally, something related to us.
The after-hours volatility of tech stock earnings is never disconnected from the crypto market.
Liquidity tightening and declining risk appetite—these macro signals transmit to every high-risk asset.
Microsoft and Meta report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, followed by Amazon.
Watch the market if you need to, hedge if you must.
Whether the AI narrative can hold steady will start to be revealed tonight.
$MSFT $META $AMZN
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ The biggest risk is that price increases are mistakenly equated with liquidity diffusion, and the current leverage and depth structure do not support a full bullish turnaround
The current candlestick is upward, but what is the depth data telling you?
Core facts of the original text: BTC, ETH, and SOL prices have all risen, but overall Open Interest has cooled significantly, with order depth thinning and high concentration. Liquidity does not spread in tandem with prices but concentrates in a few small-cap stocks such as JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, MEME, EDEN, and HUMA; Meanwhile, the trading volume and depth of BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, and other stocks have clearly shrunk.
- Market structure changes: Rising prices accompanied by declining OI indicate insufficient willingness to open new leverage, and existing funds tend to be cautious. The narrowing of depth indicates that market makers and retail investors have not increased their positions simultaneously, and liquidity is showing "selective focus" rather than "broad spread." From a derivatives perspective, this is a classic "bullish momentum decay" signal—funding rates are likely to approach neutral or even turn negative, the basis narrows, and squeeze path dependence shifts from "long squeezing shorts" to "waiting for liquidity confirmation."
- Pricing impact: BTC remains the main capital absorber, ETH maintains institutional preference, and SOL serves as the L1 Beta metric. However, the counterfeit end is clearly differentiated, with only a few having narrative support (such as AI concepts like DATA, WLD; High-volatility target HYPE; Retail sentiment indicators ZEC and DOGE) have achieved centralized pricing. This means most altcoins have not gained a systemic premium from BTC's rise but are in a state of "passive follow-up with insufficient depth."
- Bullish path: If BTC can continuously break previous highs and drive a rebound in open interest, and ETH and SOL see simultaneous volume growth, liquidity may spread from a few assets to a broader range of altcoins, forming a gradual warming pattern of "concentration first, then diffusion." This requires seeing funding rates rebound from lows, basis widening, and at least 2-3 non-leading knockoff sectors experiencing sustained volume growth.
- Bearish condition: If BTC consolidates at high levels while OI continues to decline, or if alt depth shrinks further, the current price rise may be just a "local squeeze" by existing funds on a few targets, rather than systemic buying. Failure conditions include: continued deterioration of deep data, negative funding rates, or rapid pullbacks in a core asset (such as HYPE, DOGE) triggering a sentiment reversal.
- Conclusion: The current market is in a state of "price rise, weak structure" and is not a fully long window. A more mature observation is to wait for liquidity signals—whether deep data shifts from concentration to diffusion, and whether OI expands again. Before that, the short-term trend is more likely to maintain divergent volatility rather than a trending upward trend.
Key variables to watch: Can BTC drive a rebound in OI, and whether 2-3 sectors will see simultaneous volume growth on the altcoin side.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #加密市场 #流动性 #衍生品感谢平台认可，上周帖子入选创作者周报了，挺开心的，今天来跟兄弟们分享一下这篇帖子背后的一些想法
选题上面其实就来自一个"不舒服感"：早上看到Coinbase和MSTR暴涨，但BTC还在6.8万晃悠。如果大资金真在冲，现货不该这么淡定，我就想搞清楚自己为什么不想追。
写的时候最大的坎儿是怎么把"空头回补""存量切换"这些词说成人话。毕竟发帖需要让兄弟们看得懂，后来干脆直接拆成三个"为什么"，每个点都用简单的话给兄弟们讲清楚。
最想表达的就一句：加密股涨不等于加密现货涨，别让股票的涨幅替BTC做决策。我看的是现货确认，不是股票情绪。#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
Recently, storage news is everywhere, and many people are confused!
Let me be straightforward: the storage big three can still profit in the short term, but the easy days of making money lying down are completely over.
Core plain talk: High-end HBM is still controlled by foreigners for now, but the pricing power of ordinary memory is slowly changing hands.
Let me briefly explain two core things:
HBM = high-end memory dedicated to AI servers, with huge profits and very high barriers
DRAM = ordinary memory sticks used in our phones and computers, the most competitive
The storage market used to be very simple:
Samsung$SAMSUNG, Micron$MU, SK Hynix$XSKHY formed a trio, controlling capacity and prices, raising prices at will, comfortably earning as oligopolists.
But now it's different. With ChangXin going public and obtaining large funds to expand production wildly,
storage has officially shifted from a three-giant monopoly to a multi-player competition!
We must separate the tracks carefully, never mix them up:
🔥 High-end AI storage HBM
Honestly, short term, they really can't beat it.
The technical barriers are too high, AI big orders are basically monopolized by Korean manufacturers,
for the next one or two years, they will still firmly hold this lucrative segment.
💻 Ordinary DRAM memory
This segment has completely changed!
Korean manufacturers are now too lazy to make ordinary memory, all betting on HBM, originally planning to cut production to raise prices and harvest the market.
But ChangXin's capacity caught up and kept increasing,
the era when giants could control prices and exploit the market at will is directly over.
Many misunderstandings: once ChangXin went public, foreigners lost profits.
Not at all!
The high-end technology gap can't be closed overnight; in the short term, giants still benefit from AI dividends.
But the long-term trend is clear:
The storage industry is completely polarizing,
those without high-end technology will be gradually eliminated,
the super big market driven by production cuts and cyclical speculation will be hard to see again.
Here's a very real market detail:
On the day ChangXin went public, the Korean index surged then directly fell back.
Smart money is already pricing in: future competitive pressure will only increase.
By the way, about our crypto circle:
AI computing power and storage cycles directly affect the heat of the crypto computing power sector,
with the storage industry's wind direction changed, related narratives will sooner or later transmit to the market.
Going forward, just focus on two key points:
1. Whether ordinary memory price increases can continue
2. ChangXin's capacity expansion and high-end HBM R&D progress
In conclusion:
In the short term, giants still have profits to make; the long-term era of competing on technology and strength has officially begun.
Risk reminder: capacity release and overseas policies are uncertain; the market has no absolute one-way direction. No updates for three days
Have you missed it?
Today, let's first talk about the fundamental situation this week:
Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region cooled down temporarily, Brent crude oil once dropped about 5.2%, WTI fell about 5.4%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell simultaneously, and U.S. stock futures rebounded. This combination is favorable for crypto assets in the short term because it alleviates both inflation and liquidity tightening expectations.
But the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Officially, the FOMC will hold a meeting on July 28–29; the statement will be released around 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30, followed by a press conference by Powell at 2:30 AM. The market currently prices in about a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty of this meeting is significantly higher than a regular policy meeting.
Then, at 8:30 PM Beijing time on July 30, the preliminary U.S. Q2 GDP and June PCE will be released simultaneously, and at 8:30 PM on July 31, the Q2 Employment Cost Index will be published. In other words, there is a continuous macro volatility window in the latter half of this week.
The ETF capital flow shows improvement but remains unstable:
On July 24, BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $240.1 million, ending the previous continuous inflows;
ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $70.7 million on the same day;
However, ETH still had a net inflow of about $103.9 million for the week, and about $337.7 million net inflow since July.
This indicates institutional demand has clearly improved compared to June but is not yet enough to confirm sustained one-way inflows.
In the next article, we will talk about the market!
$BTC $XAU Overview of mainstream coins for the year in 2026:
Bitcoin $BTC fell 29.72%, making it the most resilient among mainstream coins; Ethereum fell 40.48%, following the overall decline but still showing market resilience; Solana fell 44.49%, with extremely high volatility and high returns and risks; Binance Coin fell 36.52%, mainly due to regulatory pressure; Ripple fell 47.43%, most notably affected by tightening liquidity.
Currently, the market is at the end of expectations of rate hikes and liquidity contraction, and asset risk premiums are gradually being digested. The upcoming August nonfarm payroll data will be a key variable affecting the market.The 3 trillion market value of Changxin Technology looks intimidating, but compared to similar tech stocks with valuations 25 times higher, it’s really not expensive and still worth chasing higher.
Nomura Securities set a target price of 116 yuan for Changxin, even explicitly stating that Changxin should enjoy a valuation premium higher than overseas giants, reaching more than twice that of Micron and SK Hynix currently. The core logic of the report is that the AI boom has caused storage chips to be perpetually in shortage, and as long as there is a shortage, there is room for a premium.
The more fundamental competitive barrier lies in the speed of factory construction and capacity expansion. SK Hynix executives have clearly stated that from planning, approval to power infrastructure and production line setup, a single capacity expansion usually takes two years.
Changxin’s listing on the A-share market itself carries the mission of financing the national AI industry. If efforts are concentrated and a green channel is used for major projects, Changxin’s machine startup only requires eight months. Eight months versus two years is an absolute capacity generation gap.
Although the long-term fundamentals are strongly supported by policy and speed, returning to the short-term trading level, the current opening chips are still too scattered, with too many retail investors winning new shares, so there will inevitably be a need for short-term shakeout and turnover.
Referring to previous cases where chips were concentrated like SpaceX and SMIC, both experienced slight rises after opening but then fell into adjustments. Changxin’s long-term low circulating market value is actually a long-term positive.
Patiently waiting for retail chips to be cleaned out and turnover to be sufficient before following the capacity expansion fundamentals to build positions is a reasonable choice.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
@OKX中文 @OKX星球 BitMart has processed 0 altcoin, stablecoin, or $BTC withdrawals above $25K in the past 24 hours. Onchain data shows no large withdrawals from BitMart by retail users, MMs, or listed projects during this period. In other verified news, #BitMart Global CEO was reportedly removed on July 24th without being informed about the exchange closure decision. He said: “I was not involved in the decision announced today, not consulted on it, and not informed of it. I learned of it when it became public.” Coinbase has been experiencing a negative Bitcoin premium for 67 consecutive days. Active buying in the US spot market remains weak. Strangely, BTC did not continue to fall because of this, indicating that the current price support is not driven by retail investors chasing gains, but by other funds taking over.
Sustained ETF inflows, large OTC turnover, institutional allocation, and short covering may all be important reasons for maintaining strong prices.
It is worth noting that when Coinbase's negative premium returns to positive territory, it often signals a rebound in risk appetite in the U.S. market. At that time, the market may be more sustained than it is now.This is not an IPO at all; it is clearly a new landmark suddenly erected on the semiconductor foundation.
Changxin Memory, with its 3.31 trillion steel frame structure, is directly embedded into the existing column grid system of the global memory market. In the past, Hynix and Samsung were like two load-bearing walls, thickening the DRAM floor slab with AI computing power orders—Anthropic signing contracts, Nvidia betting on Naver, were just pouring several more layers of C80 high-strength concrete onto the Korean twin towers. Now with CXMT entering as a new column, the horizontal force distribution of the pricing system is completely recalculated.
Looking at the XSNDK target, it is essentially a construction cradle built along the exterior facade of the memory building. It hangs on the steel structure of the Korean twin towers, but once the glass panels of Changxin’s new curtain wall begin mass production and expansion, the wind load direction will change. DRAM contract prices are not decoration quotes but deflection data of the load-bearing beams—every ton of silicon wafers invested requires recalculating the node bending moments.
I am watching Changxin’s cleanroom construction schedule closely. Their fab’s cleanroom level is ISO Class 1, one order of magnitude higher than the commonly used Class 10 in international memory fabs, which means the wafer yield curve will be steeper but also that the air conditioning system’s energy consumption will consume a significant portion of gross profit. What truly determines how tall this building can be constructed is not the market value ribbon-cutting on listing day, but the fan speed and redundancy of the exhaust system in the underlying clean corridor.
The Korean twin towers are now somewhat passive. The high floors built with HBM stacking technology are being challenged by Changxin’s lighter module solution on load-bearing limits. If Nvidia continues to concentrate orders, it is equivalent to adding an observation deck on top of the twin towers, but is the foundation bearing layer deep enough? Looking at this new Chinese entrant, it has directly excavated down to the strongly weathered rock layer to build a raft foundation.
The capacity planning written in the white paper has always been a rendering. The real construction drawings are in Changxin’s purchase orders—arrival times of lithography machines, number of ArF immersion equipment units, diameter of cleanroom ventilation ducts. These numbers are the column cross-section reinforcement ratios that determine whether this building can withstand the seismic intensity of the next memory price cycle.
XSNDK will repeatedly sway on this seismic belt. As long as Changxin’s expansion progress is one quarter faster than the market expects, the interlayer displacement angle of DRAM will trigger alarms. #CXMTMemoryIPO Oil prices plunged 7% overnight, BTC returned to 65,000: the market is always front-running
After 13 consecutive days of U.S. bombing of Iran, the U.S. military suddenly stopped.
Then, within minutes of opening, international oil prices plummeted by more than 7%, briefly dropping below $90. Brent crude oil jumped from last week's $100 mark to near $91.
7%, a few minutes, gone.
Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures opened 1.4% higher, Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000, gold rose nearly 1%, and silver gained more than 2%.
Last week, the market was still trading a scenario of "oil prices breaking 100, uncontrolled inflation, and Fed rate hikes." Brent crude rose more than 25% in a month. Everyone is shouting: high oil prices are coming, interest rates are rising, risk assets are doomed.
Then the US troops stopped for two days.
Then oil prices crashed by 7%.
Then all the risk assets came back.
Is this 75% probability of a ceasefire pricing in the future, or is it gambling with its life?
The market has already priced in a "ceasefire agreement before the end of August" at 75%. It was almost like saying, "This matter is settled."
But if you look closely—Iran says "doubt outweighs optimism," believing the U.S. ceasefire is merely a tactical adjustment. Yemen's Houthi forces are still attacking Saudi oil tankers. Fewer than 10 merchant ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
Cease fire? The Eight Characters hadn't even been completed yet.
But the market has already run ahead as a sign of respect.
We are all too familiar with this script.
Isn't this just "prices soaring before the news even lands"? Isn't it just "once expectations are maxed out, all the good news is negative"?
Last week, when oil prices broke 100, everyone panicked and sold BTC. Oil prices just dropped 7% this week, and BTC returned to 65,000.
Market pricing has never been reality; it is people's imagination of reality.
And imagining this thing becomes faster than flipping through a book.
Last week, they were trading "Inflation Doomsday," and this week they started trading "peace dividends." The same Middle East, the same Iran, the same group of traders—within seven days, the script was rewritten twice.
When you're struggling with whether to chase the highs, think about this morning's oil prices—
7%, a few minutes.
How many such fluctuations can your position withstand?
Don't let news lead you by the nose.
The ceasefire agreement hasn't been signed yet, Hormuz is still blocking, and Iran is still suspicious. Market front-running doesn't mean the finish line is really near.
Let the bullets fly for a while.
Cash is dignity, patience is the weapon. #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower 近期两家老牌交易所陆续关停，感慨颇深。如今运营一家靠谱的交易所成本极高，合规、技术安全、流动性、做市、运营推广都要持续烧钱，早就不是早年靠流量和上线币种就能躺赚的时代了。
加密行业慢慢回归交易本身，用户核心诉求就是盈利。现在新入场的平台，必须找准自身定位，想清楚凭什么长期存活。
我觉得中小交易所未来只有两条可行的突围路线：
一是布局传统金融与加密融合的RWA赛道，把股票、债券、基金这类链上资产做成熟，打造产品壁垒；
二是深耕私域运营，靠社群维护、返佣激励、精细化用户运营，提升用户粘性和交易活跃度。
要是既没有特色金融产品，又做不好用户运营，基本没有生存余地。#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ATOM (4H) – Support Test
Bias: LONG
Entry Zone: 1.360 – 1.390
Stop Loss: 1.320
TP1: 1.460
TP2: 1.540
TP3: 1.630
Why this setup:
Consolidating near key structural support around $1.39. Looking for a trend reversal as selling pressure weakens into demand.
NFA – Educational purposes only.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch $OKB OKB's current price of 86.07 is at the upper edge of the strong resistance zone between $85 and $87, with both short-term profit-taking and previously trapped positions uncovering the double selling pressure. Chasing long positions at the current price results in a poor profit-loss ratio. The core strategy is to guard against surges and pullbacks, waiting for pullbacks or breakouts for confirmation.
Key price points summarized
Strong resistance levels: 86.0-87.0 (first strong resistance / dense take-profit band), effective breakout above 90.0 (medium-term trapped dense zone).
Short-term support: 84.2-85.0 (1-hour lower and middle Bollinger bands); if it falls below it, the downside is 82.5-83.0.
Strong support zone: 78-80 (the densest stop-loss zone/bullish defense line in the short term).
Divide between bulls and bears: 85.0 round number, the real market closed below the short-term weak and fluctuating level.
Specific operational approach
Aggressive (short trial and error): The current price at 86.07 is close to the 86-87 resistance zone. If stagflation, a long upper shadow, or shrinking volume occurs within 15 minutes, a light position can be considered, with a stop loss above 87.30, targeting 85.0-84.2.
Conservative (low long wait for pullback): Wait for price to pull back to 84.2-85.0 (volume support, lower shadow) then buy long, or volume entity breaks above 87.0 and holds before pullback to confirm long buying; long positions stop loss below 84.0, target 90.0.
Holders (taking profits in batches): If holding low long positions, you can reduce positions in batches in the 86-87 range to lock in profits. The remaining positions can be used to protect the loss and gamble for a breakout at 90, preventing false breakouts and pullbacks that sweep profits.
Risks and variables
OKB has heavy take-profit pressure at 85-87, prone to pullbacks and shakeouts; With the Federal Reserve's FOMC approaching this week, BTC volatility in the market will amplify platform token volatility. Be cautious of pins around 86. Platform tokens are supported by the OKX ecosystem and burn mechanism, but short-term low-volume upward attacks are prone to pullbacks. Control positions and focus heavily on tops or chase highs. Don't be blinded by the "$940 billion big deal"! 🚨 Although Samsung and SK Hynix are tied to AI giants like Nvidia and Broadcom, this massive investment is likely to lead South Korea to repeat the mistakes of Japan's Plaza Accord! 💥
Originally, HBM supply could last until the end of 2028, but now, with the agreement signed, monthly production capacity has soared from 130,000 to 190,000! ⚡ The industry's boom cycle has been forcibly shortened by a year, and the story of gold storage may end prematurely...
Good news materializes as soon as negative news—beware of a new round of Korean stock market crashes! 📉
Korean storage #HBM #三星 #SK海力士 #AI芯片 #加密货币 #投资心得 #美股分析
Disclaimer: The above content is for market opinion discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so investment requires caution. 🔥📢 LATEST UPDATE: THE NEW MERGED CLARITY ACT DRAFT IS OFFICIALLY RELEASED!
Hot news just in! The new draft of the CLARITY Act has just been announced with very notable changes, preparing to enter the decisive phase in the US
Congress:
* Merging two major versions: This new draft has combined the contents from the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees into a unified framework.
* Adding an ethics provision for the first time: A brand new point never seen in previous versions is the addition of an ethics provision into this draft.
* Rapid voting schedule:
* A motion to proceed is expected to take place this Monday or Tuesday.
* A floor vote is likely to happen during the week starting August 3.
Movements regarding the crypto legal framework are sprinting day by day, so everyone needs to keep a close eye on it to grasp the market situation! #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ The earnings season has entered its core window, and the earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will determine the short-term direction of the AI narrative.
Alphabet was sold off due to increased capital expenditures, and after Tesla experienced its largest weekly drop since 2022, the capital expenditure guidance from cloud service providers has become the market's focus. The growth rate of cloud business revenue and the progress of AI commercialization are direct indicators to judge whether this round of AI investment can generate returns. If the guidance continues to be raised, AI-related assets may receive support; if it falls short of expectations, the market may reprice the AI narrative.
The earnings reports of Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will be released after the market closes on Wednesday and Thursday. OKX has launched tokenized US stock spot trading supporting 7×24 hour trading. XMSFT, XMETA, XAMZN, and others can be traded during non-trading hours, with prices based on the latest closing price plus market estimates, and trading pairs quoted in USDT.
$XMSFT $XMETA $XAMZN $BTC Changxin Technology IPO adds a new variable to global storage competition
Changxin Technology has been listed on the STAR Market, breaking the fundraising record on the STAR Market, marking the official shift in the global DRAM landscape from a triopoly dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to a four-player competition, introducing a key new variable in pricing the storage cycle.
The massive fundraising will continue to be invested in wafer capacity expansion, DDR5 iteration, and HBM technology R&D, with ample capital supporting sustained capacity ramp-up. Overseas leaders are proactively reallocating capacity to favor the high-end HBM segment, voluntarily ceding the general DRAM market gap, allowing Changxin to take on consumer electronics and domestic server orders, accelerating the localization replacement phase. In the long term, the new supply constraints will limit the overseas giants' capacity control ability, weakening their unilateral pricing power.
However, it is necessary to objectively distinguish the competitive boundaries: currently, Changxin's market share remains limited, and its HBM process lags 2-3 generations behind Korean and American manufacturers, making direct competition in the high-end AI storage segment difficult in the short term. Structural differentiation in the sector continues: competition intensifies in the general DRAM segment, while HBM remains dominated by the two overseas giants.
On the market front, this will long-term alter global storage supply expectations, suppressing unilateral optimism beyond market fears of future oversupply; meanwhile, it will drive demand in the domestic semiconductor equipment, materials, and advanced packaging supply chains. Going forward, key focus will be on tracking Changxin's capacity release pace, HBM R&D progress, and new expansion plans from overseas manufacturers.
(This is an industry viewpoint sharing only and does not constitute investment advice) #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 A few things to know before next week's market opens
Two pieces of good news came over the weekend
This week, Korea and the US finalized an AI semiconductor cooperation framework of an alarming scale. Nominally $950 billion, Samsung, SK Hynix, Nvidia, and Broadcom all signed, and the HBM cooperation between Hynix and NVIDIA accounted for 750 billion. But this number is inflated; essentially, it is a letter of intent to be gradually realized over the next five years, with only a little over 100 billion yuan actually realized each year. Such long-term contracts may not be good for SK Hynix; if spot prices fall below the agreed price, they would have to bear the risk of default or margin squeezes themselves. Nvidia, on the other hand, easily shifted the risk of overcapacity onto the manufacturing side, making sure to make a profit. The real positive news is that the previously pressing concerns about South Korean pension holdings have finally been lifted. July data shows this money turned into net buying for the first time this year, and SK Hynix was specifically increased in holdings.
After 13 days of fighting, both sides have stopped. On the surface, it looks like a reconciliation, but in reality, the US is almost out of air defense interceptors. Over $4 million, more than 1,200 missiles have already been consumed, while Iran has been using cheap drones to keep fighting them. The ceasefire has eased oil prices and temporarily eased inflationary pressures, but the Houthis continue harassing oil tankers in the Red Sea, and Ukraine even sank several Iranian ships in the Caspian Sea this week. The geopolitical frontline is far from being realized. After a short-term pullback in oil prices, the EMA at 20-80 continues to look bullish.
Next week, there are three variables that will truly determine direction
First, the Federal Reserve's decision. Interest rates are most likely to remain unchanged; what really depends on how Walsh dictates his words, whether he leaves room for a rate hike in September, and how he handles the fluctuating inflation caused by the oil price rebound. It seems likely to lean hawkish.
Second, the Bank of Japan meeting. If the yen continues to weaken, it may force foreign investors to sell US Treasuries, indirectly pushing up US Treasury yields and suppressing US stocks. The 10-year US Treasury yield has now reached a higher high of 4.7%, surpassing the high on May 18. In the short term, after a pullback to the EMA of 4.58%, the outlook is bullish. On a weekly chart, it has broken out of this 4-5-year triangle consolidation, so 5% may not be the peak of this cycle.
Third, the financial reports from major giants crowded this week. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and SK Hynix have all been active in recent days. The market fears another Google scenario (heavy spending, cash flow laging, and direct sell-offs). Last week, Tesla fell nearly 18%, Google nearly 8%, and this time the key is who can hold on. Meta is watching whether CapEx guidance will continue to be raised. Amazon is watching AWS's spending pace and whether AI orders can materialize. Apple has the thickest cash flow and may be the relatively safe option this earnings season, currently performing strongest, with the daily EMA
20 has never fallen below 20, and has been pulling back along the EMA of 20. SK Hynix and Samsung are watching HBM's shipments and gross profit.
Market technicals: Weak, note a few key levels
The S&P SPY is less than 3% below its high, with several consecutive resistance levels above 744, 750, and 752. The trend clearly follows a weak pattern of "lower lows and lower highs," with support below at 736, 730, and 724. Weekly pullbacks will not fall below 700.
Small cap stocks (IWM) are the worst of the three, falling steadily without a single decent rebound above the moving averages. On the daily chart, there is a quadruple top divergence, and the weekly target may be around 260-265.
In the short term, the VIX has shown a bearish divergence signal. The VIX fell and US stocks rebounded, confirming there is room for a rebound in the past couple of days. Coupled with the wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the Fed meeting, a technical rebound may occur on Monday and Tuesday. But to emphasize, this is just technical—don't treat it as a reversal. After the meeting, there will likely be further adjustments.
The fundamentals are actually quite strong
S&P's Q2 earnings rose 38.8% year-over-year, far exceeding the market's original forecast of 24%, with 85% of companies beating forecasts—a very high proportion in history. In other words, earnings rising faster than stock prices means stocks are getting cheaper, which is a good window for those willing to take long-term positions. The consumer side hasn't crashed either; financial reports from companies like American Express and Capital One show that all income brackets are still willing to spend, and bad debt rates are kept very low. But be cautious: the total market capitalization of global stocks has now risen to 137% of global GDP, matching the meme stock craze in 2021. Historically, such valuation levels rarely hold up for long.
Seasonality: Historically, August and September are weak months, but usually pave the way for the end of the year
Historically, August and September often decline, but as long as the gain exceeds 7% before the end of July, 32 out of 35 years ended the year with positive returns, mostly concentrated in November and December. So even if the market weakens in the next month or two, historical patterns tend to interpret it as a build-up period before the year-end rally.
Summary
Several pieces of news over the weekend gave the market a breather, and with the VIX bearish divergence signal, a rebound is very likely before Monday and Tuesday's Fed meetings, but this seems more like an emotional technical rally. The real test comes after the meeting: cash flow anxiety during the super earnings week, the quiet upward revision of rate hike probabilities, and the historically weak seasonality in August and September—three factors combined. The rebound will be mainly on QQQ. I see several levels at 696, with gaps between 700 and 704. There is a chance to reach 696 and 700, but the 704 gap may not be filled. After the rebound, the market is expected to fluctuate downward. QQQ's final correction target will not fall below 637, EMA 200 at 648, and SMA 200 at 643.
Fortunately, the earnings data is clear. As long as the Fed doesn't make any surprise moves, this wave of volatility is most likely the seasonal volatility typical of the second half of a midterm election year, so there's no need to change long-term judgments.Affected by the war between the US and Israel against Iran, international Brent crude oil briefly rose from $80 to $113, WTI crude broke through $119, and has now fallen back to around $80. If the war continues and oil prices soar, will it trigger inflation+, forcing the US into an early rate hike cycle*? If interest rates really increase, the crypto market may enter a truly cold winter. Recently, many friends have been worried about comparisons, but when the war first broke out, we found a comprehensive answer to this confusion. In my personal understanding, the probability of an early rate hike triggered by war is not high. First: War is a nightmare for Iranian civilians, but for the U.S. military-industrial body, it is a source of income. Even if Iran's resistance exceeds Trump's expectations, in terms of strength, the U.S. holds a technological advantage. Modern Warfare+ is not just about making money, but also about technological competition. Therefore, the U.S. should accelerate as much as possible to avoid falling into a long-term quagmire. Second: Domestic circumstances do not support interest rate hikes. After the intense rate hikes in 2022-2023, the U.S. has a deficit of $38 trillion+ and high interest payments every year. Raising interest rates is essentially increasing its own interest rate. At the same time, the U.S. employment rate has been declining over the past two years, and companies can no longer bear high interest rates+. In an external war, internal strife must not break out. Third: Rate cuts and rate hikes, the trend is a major cycle+. It will not change due to short-term emergencies, unless the nature of the situation in Iran shifts. We are still in a rate-cutting cycle. Although the pace of rate cuts is slow, the US is both trying to curb inflation and temporarily release liquidity+ through rate cuts, but the pace is notOn the evening of July 26, the U.S. announced a suspension of military strikes against Iran, opening the diplomatic negotiation window and rapidly easing geopolitical tensions. Global stock markets, gold, and cryptocurrencies all rose simultaneously, while crude oil plunged. The fading of risk-averse sentiment in the market and the influx of funds into risk assets are the core triggers for this round of Bitcoin and Secondary Bitcoin rebounds. BTC rose 1.1%-1.49% in the past 24 hours, holding above the 65,000 level; ETH surged 3.8%-4.39%, quoted between 1945 and 1953, leading the mainstream coins. The root cause of the early morning drop and then rise was that after the geopolitical news arrived, bears passively exited the market, leading to a volatile rebound; This is also the underlying reason why intraday shorting followed by a long strategy can fully realize the situation[NVIDIA may endorse client financing, narrative cautious, demand binding and credit risk coexisting]
The narrative of demand binding to Nvidia is relatively positive, but valuation should be handled cautiously. Reports around OpenAI's Ohio data center show that NVIDIA is negotiating guarantees for computing power leasing financing; If this model advances, its role could extend from simply selling GPUs to supporting downstream computing power construction through its own credit.
The report covers about $250 billion in guarantees and 10GW of project terms, but Nvidia, OpenAI, and the financier have not yet fully cross-confirmed the terms through public documents, so these cannot be considered as implemented terms. What truly matters is not a rumored number, but whether the supplier begins to help customers convert forward computing power needs into current orders through deeper financing arrangements.
If this mechanism is established, beneficiaries may include customers with limited financing capacity but strong computing power demand, as well as industrial chains built around data centers; But it will also prompt the market to reassess whether Nvidia is taking on more risks from customer credit, project returns, and demand concentration. Revenue growth and risk exposure may expand simultaneously rather than being a one-way benefit.
Subsequent attention should be paid to whether the company, client, or financier discloses clear structures, guarantee boundaries, and risk assumption methods. Before official information appears, the market's pricing shift from "selling chips" to "binding demand" should still retain a relatively high discount.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.[Whales Raise 120 More WBTC Coins, Chip Tightening Signals Positive, but Not Enough to Confirm Trend]
The WBTC chip structure is relatively positive, but not enough to confirm the trend with a single address action alone. On-chain monitoring shows that a certain whale has withdrawn another 120 WBTC tokens from trading platforms in the past two hours, amounting to about $7.8 million; "Re-requesting" is more important than the single transaction amount, indicating that the address may still be continuing its existing configuration actions.
According to monitoring, this address has cumulatively held 59,404.19 ETH and 820 WBTC, with a total value of about $156 million, averaging $1,742 and $64,329 respectively, with a total unrealized profit of about $8.927 million. Regarding the WBTC part, withdrawal trading platforms are often interpreted as short-term tradable chip reductions, but address intent cannot be fully determined solely by transfer records.
What the market will really observe is whether this type of capital forms continuity: if it continues to flow out of the platform without rapid return, the narrative of holding tokens will be more supported; If it is only transfers between accounts, collateral deployment, or subsequent deposits on trading platforms, the initial accumulation interpretation may quickly cool. Large on-chain moves provide clues but do not provide definitive causality.
Therefore, the focus of verification remains on subsequent address flows, platform net traffic, and whether more independent funds are moving in the same direction. The floating profits and position size of a single whale should not be directly equated with changes in overall market supply and demand.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.[Super Central Bank Weekly Combined with AI Earnings, DeFi Risk Appetite Unclear, Let's Adopt a Wait-and-See Approach for Now]
DeFi risk appetite remains unclear, so it's best to wait and see for now. This week, multiple central bank interest rate decisions, US Q2 GDP, core PCE, and tech giants' earnings reports appeared concentrated, causing macro funding costs and risk asset valuations to face simultaneous repricing, making it difficult for single themes to operate independently of the broader market environment.
The material mentions that the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively announce interest rate decisions, while energy prices, tariff policies, and AI capital spending are intertwined. The focus of market discussions is not simply betting on rate hikes or cuts, but whether inflation risk will be seen as a more persistent institutional constraint, which will affect expectations for future liquidity.
For DeFi, interest rate paths and changes in dollar liquidity often influence risk appetite, leverage needs, and willingness to allocate funds on-chain and off-chain. If data and policy signals reduce uncertainty in funding costs, risk asset narratives are more likely to gain support; If inflation concerns intensify or external risks intensify, funds may prioritize reducing exposure to high volatility.
Next, attention should be paid to policy wording, core PCE results, and the joint feedback from technology financial reports on overall risk appetite. Volatility during event-intensive periods does not equal a trend; before macro divergence converges, chasing a single-day direction carries higher risk.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.[Binance handles Nokia dividends for NOKB, tokenized stock service narrative is positive]
The narrative for tokenized equity services is positive, but a single equity distribution may not necessarily catalyze independent trading. Binance announced it will distribute Nokia dividends to users holding NOKB balances through bStocks, focusing not on the dividend amount but on whether the stock token can handle equity events in traditional securities holdings.
The announcement shows that after deducting applicable withholding taxes, fees, costs, and other expenses, the net cash dividend will be reinvested as additional units or fractional shares of the same underlying securities; Eligible users will receive corresponding allocations in the form of NOKB bStocks stock tokens. Users holding NOKB balances on-chain will receive bStocks dividends through multiple-level adjustments.
Such arrangements allow the market to test whether platforms have closed-loop capabilities such as "holding, ex-rights, dividends, and reinvestment." For users who have allocated tokenized stocks long-term, whether equity event handling is transparent, accurate, and reusable affects the product experience far more than a single dividend payment; For the platform, this is also a practical stress test of service capability and compliance processes.
Going forward, attention should be paid to whether snapshots, distribution, and reinvestment results are implemented smoothly as announced, as well as user acceptance of cost and tax treatment. If errors or understanding thresholds frequently occur in the rights processing chain, the product's convenience advantage may be weakened.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.[Hyperliquid testnet introduces "stars," with a positive narrative on HIP-3 compliant scaling]
The narrative of HIP-3 compliance expansion is relatively positive, but the testnet functionality is still insufficient to directly infer actual business increments. The Hyperliquid testnet introduced a "stars" feature, adding HIP-3 DEXs to the optional trading address whitelist, with the core value of reserving clearer product boundaries for restricted access products.
This mechanism allows deployers to restrict the number of whitelist addresses to open or increase positions, with a testnet whitelist cap of 10,000 addresses; Unauthorized addresses can still recharge and submit positions limited to reduced positions. This "restricted access, exit retention" design reduces the risk of users being completely locked in positions and is closer to the actual needs of some regulated assets for managing trading participants.
The market is not trading a whitelist button, but whether HIP-3 can use it to support scenarios like tokenized stocks, RWAs, institutional indices, and other scenarios that require KYC or qualified investor screening. If deployers can achieve entry and risk control with relatively low friction, the boundaries of product supply will expand; Conversely, whitelists may reduce open liquidity and increase operational complexity.
The key future lies in whether this feature moves from the testnet into a stable product system and whether it is actually adopted by real projects. Without actual deployment, liquidity, and user needs align, compliant expansion remains at the technical option level.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.【图文观察｜油价传导】北京时间15:15，WTI 82.6670美元（-7.32%），Brent 86.6400美元（-7.01%），价差约3.97美元/桶。
观察视角：这里不单看油价涨跌，而看它对通胀预期、美元流动性和风险资产估值的传导。若油价上行但美元同步走强，加密资产反而可能承压。
金十背景：近期美元、原油、黄金为何出现“罕见齐涨”？ | 金十期货热图——打破传统逻辑！美元走强，黄金和原油应该承压下跌。但现实中，近期美元、原油、黄金为何出现“罕见齐涨”？一图了解。
验证点：WTI守住20日均线且价差稳定，偏区间整理；若价差扩大并跌回均线下方，需求压力会重新被定价。
风险提示：OPEC+口径、库存或地缘事件若超预期，上述传导观察需要重估。仅作市场观察，不构成投资建议。ARXUSDT（Arcium）
- Entry Range: 0.1718~0.1828 (Spike with stagnation, volume pullback, open short)
- Stop-loss level: 0.1925
- Take-profit tier:
Tier 1: 0.1540
Second gear: 0.1440
Third tier: 0.1335
ENSOUSDT（Enso）
- Entry Range: 0.829~0.882 (Surges are stagnant, volume drops and pullbacks open short)
- Stop-loss level: 0.930
- Take-profit tier:
Tier 1: 0.745
Second tier: 0.695
Third tier: 0.642
SAHARAUSDT（Sahara AI）
- Entry Range: 0.00905~0.00962 (Surges high with stagnant inflation, volume drops and pullbacks open short)
- Stop-loss level: 0.01015
- Take-profit tier:
Tier 1: 0.00812
Second tier: 0.00760
Third tier: 0.00705
Declining Coins · Short Selling Strategy (Group 3)
OFCUSDT（OneFoot）
- Entry Range: 0.01000~0.01065 (Rise and stagnate, volume drop, open short)
- Stop loss: 0.01122
- Take-profit tier:
Tier 1: 0.00900
Second Tier: 0.00845
Third tier: 0.00782
UVXYUSDT（ProShares）
- Entry Range: 25.1~26.7 (Surging high with stagnant inflation, volume dropping to short position)
- Stop-loss level: 28.2
- Take-profit tier:
Tier 1: 22.6
Second gear: 21.1
Third gear: 19.5
$ETH $DOGE $SOL
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 We have no person in charge. Now I need to know the following questions. I only contact through the official Gate app. Please have the management implement the following issues. Please read carefully and do not use scripted responses to brush off. Gate's meaning is: At the same time as we paid 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD to the "scammer" wallet according to the contract, Gate's alpha automatically captured the ALD tokens. Then it cannot be disclosed who connected the coin listing process. Finally, the scammer's wallet transferred funds into Gate alpha for an airdrop. Is that correct?
The hash is here:
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
When a project pays money, gets listed, and then is told "the person communicating with you is not our staff, and the project is listed on Gate" — is this Gate's response?#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保
英伟达正在下一盘大棋。据WSJ报道，英伟达拟为OpenAI提供高达2500亿美元的融资担保，帮其租赁软银在俄亥俄州开发的10吉瓦数据中心园区。项目总投资预计超5000亿美元，堪称史上最大数据中心项目，第一阶段2028年完工。
这不是借钱，这是印钞逻辑。之前市场传闻英伟达因OpenAI上市计划搁置了千亿级直投，结果转头就甩出2500亿担保，量级直接翻倍。核心路径变了：从买股权，到锁需求。
OpenAI没盈利、没投资级信用评级，自己根本融不到这个量级的钱。英伟达用自己顶级的资产负债表做担保，让软银能低成本借钱盖楼。代价是什么？OpenAI未来十几年只能采购英伟达芯片。这等于把"AI印钞机"的独家燃料供应权锁死了。
但争议极大。 这就是经典的循环融资——英伟达投钱给OpenAI基建，基建反过来采购英伟达芯片推高业绩。批评者直言这是人为制造需求和AI泡沫放大器。更狠的是，这笔2500亿担保不包含芯片采购，芯片可能还要额外融3500亿美元。如果OpenAI商业化不及预期，英伟达将背上天量或有负债。
逻辑很清晰： 黄仁勋赌的是AI推理时代，算力永远稀缺。他要的不是财务回报，是用金融手段彻底焊死竞争对手的门。这笔交易标志着英伟达已从卖铲人变身AI基建银行，直接嵌入资本结构，比CUDA护城河更深。但泡沫还是未来，就看OpenAI能不能跑通了。#Gate.io Temp Worker
Gate's official team continues to claim that Robin, who connects with our ALD community, is an impersonator and a scammer. Here are several core questions that cannot be avoided. Please answer them directly:
1. If Robin is merely an external scammer and not a Gate staff member, an unauthorized impostor, what right does he have to complete the full Gate Alpha listing process and successfully list ALD tokens on the platform?
Gate listing uses an internal multi-layer approval mechanism, making it impossible for outsiders to operate on their own. If outsiders can casually impersonate employees to complete token listings, does this prove that Gate's internal permission management has completely gone out of control, allowing anyone to impersonate staff and lead project listings?
2. We will pay the USDT and ALD corresponding to the listed currency in full according to the matchmaker's requirements. If Robin is considered personal fraud, why did the scammer guide us to transfer funds that ultimately flow into the Gate system, and why did the token launch as scheduled?
Ordinary people commit fraud with the goal of embezzling funds without authorization; Moreover, the successful listing of tokens after this settlement is completely inconsistent with the logic of ordinary scammers.
3. Gate cannot simply use the phrase "the intermediary is a scammer" to unilaterally tear up the token listing agreement reached by both parties.
The successful launch of the token on Gate Alpha is an objective established fact; trading behavior and fulfillment results are real. They cannot enjoy the benefits paid by the project party and refuse to fulfill all agreed obligations on the grounds of "personnel impersonation."
4. We hope Gate will publicly disclose the complete approval process for the ALD launch of Gate Alpha and the internal handling staff.
If Robin has no official authorization, please explain: How did an external impersonator bypass all internal risk controls and approvals to complete the entire listing process? Does this mean there is a major vulnerability in Gate Alpha's listing channel, and all project teams face the risk of being lured by fake personnel?7 月美联储议息前瞻：按兵不动是共识，加息黑天鹅需警惕
$BTC $ETH $SOL
北京时间 7 月 30 日凌晨 2 点公布 7 月利率决议，2:30 主席沃什召开发布会。原本的平淡例会，因油价破百、通胀黏性升温，加息预期一周内从 12% 飙升至 36%，成为下半年政策转向的关键节点
一、市场定价
CME 最新数据：维持 3.50%-3.75% 利率概率 63.7%，加息 25bp 概率 36.3%；9 月累计加息 25bp 概率超 55%，年内紧缩预期全面回温
主流投行预判 7 月按兵不动、9 月动手，但部分机构提示 7 月加息风险被市场低估
二、预期升温三大推手
布油站上 100 美元 / 桶，能源通胀反弹压力陡增
核心通胀黏性强，距离 2% 政策目标仍有明显差距
新主席沃什淡化前瞻指引，政策不确定性放大市场波动
三、核心看点
政策声明是否删除宽松表述，转向警惕通胀上行风险
是否出现支持加息的异议票，体现委员会内部分歧
沃什发布会是否明确释放 9 月加息的信号
四、情景影响
基准情景（约 60%）：按兵不动 + 偏鹰表态，风险资产小幅承压后消化预期，焦点转向 9 月
黑天鹅情景（约 36%）：意外加息 25bp，美元美债跳涨，风险资产快速下杀
鸽派情景（极低）：淡化加息预期，风险资产全面反弹#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 Intraday high 0.167U, intraday low 0.163U, current price 0.165U, maximum 24-hour drop of 2%; Fluctuating downward, weak upward momentum, short-selling signals appearing. On-chain chips: Whales who previously hoarded coins at low levels transferred small amounts out to exchanges to take profits, while large on-chain transfers to cold wallets completely stopped; Spot exchange inventories have slightly rebounded, and long-term funds are cautious and exiting. Short-term long contracts accumulated in the 0.170U-0.175U range. After the price broke support, long positions concentrated stop-losses, with total 24-hour long liquidations exceeding 270,000 USD, and funding rates shifting from positive to weak bearish patterns. 1. Short-term rebound profit-taking concentrated with no new positive factors (core trigger) The rebound from 0.147U to 0.174U in this round relied solely on oversold recovery, with no substantial positive developments such as expansion, upgrades, or institutional cooperation on July 27; Short-term bottom-fishing funds have unrealized gains exceeding 15%, concentrated cashing out and exiting, with incremental capital flows cutting off directly triggering a pullback. 2. Negative sentiment on ecological security and governance continues to suppress market confidence. Previous wallet thefts and core governance exits have lingered in the aftermath, and the community continues to question the project's governance efficiency; Ctrl wallet officially announced its shutdown in August, prompting market concerns that more ecosystem tools might disappear, prompting investors to proactively reduce positions to avoid potential risks. 3. Whales stop accumulating, on-chain buying support disappears On-chain monitoring shows that wallets holding tens of millions worth of ADA have not increased their holdings for three consecutive days, only maintaining small cash withdrawals; Institutional funds continue to compare with competitors in the RWA sector, with Cardano lagging behind in implementation and no long-term capital to support its price. 4The core logic behind the continued weakness in the technology sector this round is the market's concerns about AI companies' ability to realize profits from massive capital expenditures. Leading tech companies like Tesla and Google reported in Q2 that large-scale investment in computing infrastructure continues to erode companies' free cash flow, with many companies raising their full-year capital expenditure guidance and extending the investment return cycle. Short sellers continue to position short positions in the semiconductor sector, with chip stocks like Micron, Nvidia, and AMD under significant pressure, and expectations of storage capacity overcapacity further suppressing sector valuations. On the capital side, hedge funds have reduced holdings of the AI Seven Giants six times in the past eight weeks, and the process of clearing out crowded trading is not yet over.
The sector's capital rotation pattern is clear, with funds continuously allocated on two main themes: one is the industrial and power equipment tracks supporting data centers, where AI data center construction drives demand for power grids and construction machinery, with medium- to long-term performance certainty for related targets; Second, defense sectors such as military aerospace and high-dividend utilities, which hedge against macro and geopolitical volatility risks and become safe havens for capital.#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保
AI行业重磅消息传出，英伟达正在洽谈为OpenAI提供2500亿美元融资担保，支撑其租赁俄亥俄州10GW巨型数据中心。先厘清关键前提：交易仍处于磋商阶段，尚未正式签约，存在变数。
先通俗解读事件本质：
这笔资金并非英伟达直接现金出资，而是信用担保兜底。OpenAI未盈利、没有投资级信用，依靠英伟达的巨头信用，才能拿到低成本长期贷款。整个项目总投入超5000亿美元，第一阶段预计2028年才能完工，建设周期漫长。
乐观视角：算力军备竞赛持续加码
消息直接打破“AI资本开支见顶”的市场悲观预期。英伟达深度绑定头部大模型客户，长期锁定GPU采购需求；OpenAI大幅降低对微软云的依赖，推进算力自主化。产业预期回暖，利好全球AI硬件板块，间接提升市场整体风险偏好。
风险视角：高杠杆扩张暗藏隐患
本质是产业链风险绑定。如果后续大模型商业化不及预期，OpenAI无法持续支付租金，担保风险会直接传导至英伟达。当下市场已经开始警惕AI行业依靠担保、借贷疯狂扩产，远期存在债务泡沫隐忧。
延伸到盘面我的的个人判断
分清远期叙事和短期行情，项目落地周期长达数年，无法立刻转化为业绩。消息属于情绪催化，不要盲目追高，容易走出买预期、卖事实行情。
赛道分化会持续上演，算力基础设施赛道长期逻辑得到支撑；单纯无业绩支撑的AI题材，估值依旧承压。资金越来越看重现金流兑现能力。
主流币大趋势依旧由宏观政策主导，AI产业消息只能影响阶段性情绪，美联储降息节奏、CLARITY法案等核心变量，依旧决定中长期行情方向。
短线不依靠单一消息重仓博弈。持续跟踪两大关键点：双方能否达成正式协议、美股算力板块能否持续稳住。
中长期维度，AI算力扩张趋势明确，但要警惕远期高杠杆带来的潜在风险。
大家觉得，这次千亿级算力布局，能否稳住下半年AI整条产业链估值？$LAB 有一个问题我们都忽略了，lab在10u的时候流动性只有200万枚，从0.2涨到28u就靠这流动的200万枚。而现在流动性达到了5800万枚，你还能指望庄家把这几千万枚都拉到10u20u吗？之前能爆拉的前提是流动性少，筹码都在庄手中，现在筹码都在散户手中根本不会有大的拉盘了，最后全是散户踩踏暴跌。I am Cige. Changxin Technology was listed on the STAR Market today with a market value of ¥3.31 trillion, directly topping A-shares as number one. The opening surged significantly, crowning a new king of A-shares.
The global storage industry’s duopoly is turning into a three-way battle.
A week ago, Anthropic signed a chip supply agreement with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and NVIDIA announced an investment in South Korea’s Naver. AI orders continue to concentrate in the hands of the two Korean giants. Changxin’s listing officially brings Chinese production capacity into the pricing system. On the same day, after KOSPI rose more than 1.7% in early trading, it turned down, as capital recalculates. With a third production line entering the game, the supply-demand balance sheet needs to be re-evaluated.
What it means for SK Hynix
Short-term sentiment will be suppressed. On its first day of listing, Changxin’s market value exceeded ¥3 trillion, and the market will instinctively interpret capacity expansion as negative news. SK Hynix has rebounded from 1167, with a thick profit-taking base, so any slight disturbance could trigger short-term sell-offs. But the mid-term logic remains unchanged: HBM4 mass production, long-term contract price locks until 2030, and solid orders from NVIDIA and Anthropic are all real. Changxin cannot catch up with HBM’s capacity and technological barriers in the short term. Whether the storage duopoly narrative evolves into a three-party pattern depends on Changxin’s expansion pace and yield ramp-up speed, which cannot be changed just by ringing the bell today.
Impact on BTC
Changxin’s listing itself has no direct impact on BTC, but KOSPI’s downturn reflects cautious capital sentiment in the Asia-Pacific market regarding changes in the storage landscape. If SK Hynix and Samsung pull back as a result, risk appetite in Asia-Pacific may be suppressed, and BTC could be affected in the short term. However, in the mid-term view, China’s entry into storage capacity means global computing infrastructure capital expenditure will further expand, accelerating the burn rate of funds and the erosion of fiat currency credit. This actually strengthens BTC’s narrative as a non-sovereign asset.
Competition in the storage sector is intensifying, but the overall pie is growing. AI computing power demand is not a zero-sum game; it’s an explosive increment. Hold your long positions in SK Hynix and don’t be shaken off by the short-term sentiment caused by Changxin’s listing.
Cige has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 $BTC $ETH $SHIB Based on the previous rally, the previous high of $BTC was 66,928, but it did not break through this round. $ETH this round caught up to 1,982, and the previous high was 1,957. Volume hasn't kept up. Personally, I feel it's still to wash out liquidity, so the overall approach remains unchanged, mainly buying on highs. #Fed announces interest rate decision early Thursday morning #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 "DataHunter Macro Report" · July 27, 2026
This week has indeed been packed with information. The FOMC will announce its decision early Thursday morning, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are all releasing earnings reports, FTX compensation starts on Friday, oil prices just crashed, and BTC has climbed back above 65,000. Each of these could be a separate article, but now they all happen in the same week.
The market focus is undoubtedly on the Fed decision at 2 AM Thursday, but this time it’s a bit different from previous occasions.
Oil prices fell first, easing half of the Fed’s pressure
Over the past three weeks, Brent crude surged from $70 to over $100, pushing the July rate hike probability from 13% to 38%—the Fed hadn’t acted yet, but oil prices had already done half the tightening for the market. Then over the weekend, news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran broke, causing oil prices to plunge more than 5% at the open, with Brent returning to around $92.
This doesn’t mean the inflation alarm is off, but it at least gives the Fed a reason to "hold steady"—no need to be forced into a rate hike while oil prices are still surging. This is a short-term positive for risk assets and one of the core drivers behind BTC climbing above 65,000.
Employment data is still fueling rate hike expectations
Last week, initial jobless claims were 187,000, the lowest since 1969. With the labor market this strong, the Fed is unlikely to signal any easing. Since Waller took office, he hasn’t given forward guidance, and this time it’s very likely to be a vague stance of "no promises, but no options ruled out."
So the key point of this FOMC isn’t whether to hike rates or not—most likely no hike—but how the statement phrases inflation, whether there are dissenting votes, and how Waller answers questions at the press conference. These factors will influence the market more than the rate decision itself.
Earnings reports and compensation also competing for attention
The FOMC decision comes early Thursday, immediately followed by earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. Google and Tesla were already hit last week due to heavy AI spending; if these three also raise capital expenditure guidance, tech stocks could take another hit, and BTC will likely follow.
On Friday, the fifth round of FTX compensation worth about $900 million will start. Previous rounds saw a lot of funds flow back into the market; how much of this becomes buying pressure is something to watch in the short term.
Back to trading strategy
Before the FOMC, the market will likely oscillate around 65,000. Now with oil prices down, easing geopolitical tensions, and 682 BTC net inflow into ETFs yesterday—all supporting short-term sentiment. But big money won’t make bets before 2 AM Thursday.
It’s recommended not to hold heavy positions now; there’s no point in acting before the direction is clear. Holding above 65,000 is fine, but don’t chase the highs. Wait for price action Wednesday night; usually, big players make moves a few hours before the decision, which is more informative than guessing now.
We’ll see the outcome at 2 AM Thursday.
DataHunter | Understanding the market through data#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
I believe the listing of Changxin Technology is not an isolated event but rather layered on top of a global storage chip "super cycle" narrative.
Factors supporting the stock price:
Global DRAM/HBM is indeed in a supply-demand tightness and price uptrend cycle, with strong performance fulfillment ability (growth data is astonishing);
Domestic substitution + "storage sovereignty" narrative, Changxin is a scarce domestic DRAM leader target, with institutional and capital allocation demand;
Backed by Hefei state-owned assets, finally realized after ten years of incubation, carrying strong symbolic significance.
Several risk points everyone must be cautious about:
Extremely small float (about 6.7%) + no price limit for the first 5 days after listing, this is a typical "speculative/emotional pricing" structure, where the stock price can be violently driven by very small trading volume, greatly weakening the correlation between volatility and real fundamentals;
On the first day of listing, there was already a violent back-and-forth of "opening at 49.5 yuan → dropping to 38.11 → rallying back to 55 yuan → falling back to 52 yuan," indicating an extremely unstable chip structure and high risk of chasing highs;
PE has already reached a pricing discussion level of 5.8 times sales ratio (according to online data), valuation digestion will take time, and once the global AI/semiconductor sector sentiment cools down (such as the "continuous adjustment since July" mentioned earlier), the capital clustering logic is prone to reversal;
Storage chips are highly cyclical; historically, DRAM price surges are often followed by declines caused by capacity expansion. The long-term space depends on how long this "AI-driven storage shortage" can last, rather than short-term sentiment.
For those wanting to participate, it is recommended to pay attention to the real price discovery process after the removal of price limits in the next 5 trading days, rather than rushing to chase the price at the most euphoric stage;
Focus more on the mid-to-long-term DRAM price trends, Changxin's capacity ramp-up pace, and valuation anchors of comparable companies like Samsung/SK Hynix, rather than single-day candlesticks; Rumor has it that many public fund single accounts bought too much today
The upper part doesn't want to cause too much volatility and wants to slow the bull
So in the afternoon, rumors said you wouldn't be allowed to buy, but in reality, you can buy again tomorrowGuys, the biggest macro variable is coming this week. Goldman Sachs' latest report points out that the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's meeting. A Bloomberg survey of 76 economists also showed that all respondents expected interest rates to remain unchanged. But what Goldman Sachs really wants to say is something else: the impact of this decision will largely depend on how Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh explains the decision and future policy path. In other words, "not moving" is the clear card; "how to explain immovability" is the real variable. Market divides are actually significant. CME data shows the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July at 63.7%, but still a 36.3% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Pricing in the interest rate swap market also shows a probability of about a 30% rate hike. A week ago, the probability of a rate hike was only 13%, but now it has soared to 36%. The market's divisions over this meeting are far greater than they appear on the surface. Walsh is the biggest variable Since taking office, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh has pledged to abolish forward-looking guidance. He won't give you directions in advance or let you guess. Goldman Sachs itself admitted that internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, Walsh's unclear stance, the US-Iran conflict, and the official silence period are all intensifying market competition. This means—the rate decision may just be the appetizer, and Walsh's remarks are the ultimate variable determining the market's direction. What does this mean for the crypto market? BTC has been sideways around $64,000 for nearly a week, while ETH has repeatedly rubbed around $1,950. Everyone is waiting for the Fed to make the first move. If Wash's speech leans dovish (emphasizing data based on