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🔥 OKX Planet Night Talk | SanDisk Drops 14% Overnight: Retail Investors Line Up to "Catch Flying Knives," Skating Laughs in the Sky, Analyst William Analyzes Professionally—After Reading, You'll Know Why the Drop Happens? What will SanDisk do next?
On July 28, SanDisk (SNDK) plunged 14.53% in a single day, closing at $1,092.47.
The entire storage sector has collectively jumped off buildings: Micron fell nearly 9%, Western Digital fell over 8%, Seagate dropped over 8%, and Kioxia ADR dropped over 10%.
In the first half of the year, SanDisk's gains were about 858%, making it the top performer in the S&P 500.
Family, tonight, there were two voices in the group:
• Retail investors: "Cut in half!" A golden pit! Increase your position! " 💪
• Institution: "Quietly retreating ......" 🧊
As someone who's been through it, I have to pour cold water on it: in the logic behind retail investors' recent long positions, there are three fatal naiveties. 😱
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🎭 Naivety One: "If it drops too much, it should rise"—you mistake "expensive" for "cheap"
SanDisk rose 858% in the first half of the year, with a cumulative increase of 760% since the spin-off and listing
Is it now down 14%? It still stands at a high point with an astonishing increase this year. It's like Hermès bags at a 10% discount—it's still Hermès, not street vendor goods.
Let's look at the valuation:
• Price-to-book ratio: 11.74 times
• Dynamic P/E ratio of 27.85 times
• As a highly cyclical product, the storage industry has a reasonable PE of only 8-10 times
Retail investors see "discounted luxury goods," while institutions see "still too expensive haute couture." The process of valuation compression is far longer and more brutal than you might imagine.
💡 You might think you're bottom-fishing, but you might be catching the knife halfway up the mountain.
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🎭 Naive Two: "AI storage demand remains, SanDisk will definitely rise"—the narrative is being questioned by the market
The long-term logic of AI storage remains intact, but the short-term narrative is being undermined:
Trigger 1: Meta is reportedly considering selling excess cloud computing capacity. The market instantly interpreted it as—AI capital spending by leading tech giants may have peaked! Big bear Eisman issued a direct warning: once leading companies cut back on AI capital spending, U.S. stocks are very likely to pull back sharply.
Trigger 2: Goldman Sachs expects that by 2026, capital expenditure by hyperscale cloud providers will rise to about 100% of operating cash flow—meaning all cash flow will be invested in AI infrastructure. Morgan Stanley is more direct: funds may rotate from semiconductors to cloud computing, and the "AI main theme" will shift from "buying everything" to "focusing on cash flow and returns."
Trigger 3: Samsung and SK Hynix are expanding production at the 100 billion level, and the market is beginning to worry about NAND oversupply after 2027.
Retail investors' cognitive trap: equating "the track has long been right" with "buying now." But market transactions have never been about "whether there is demand," but about "whether demand growth matches the current exaggerated valuation."
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🎭 Naive Three: "A crash will surely rebound, go all in!" "— Sector-specific chips loosen, not individual stock shakeouts
Just a glance at the market makes it clear:
• SanDisk fell over 8% in pre-market trading, Western Digital fell over 7%, Micron fell over 7%, Seagate fell over 6%, and SK Hynix fell over 5%
• This is a simultaneous collapse of the entire storage sector, not a single pullback by SanDisk
What does the mass suicide by the district mean? This means institutional profit-taking is concentrated and fleeing. SanDisk rose 858% in the first half of the year, with institutions making huge profits. Now, taking advantage of the high levels before the earnings report, they are taking profits.
What's even more heartbreaking is the internal divisions on Wall Street:
• Among 29 institutions, 77% still rate "Buy," but target prices range greatly from a low of $1,000 to a high of $3,169
• The average target price is $2,363.65, indicating that institutions also believe there is room for the next 12 months
• But Goldman Sachs set a target price of $1,200, Susquehanna saw $3,250—such a huge divergence itself signals uncertainty
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🎯 What do you think comes next? Keep a close eye on two days
I won't give fake predictions of "certain rises and falls"; I'll only tell you about the truly important time window:
📅 August 5: SanDisk Q4 financial report
Market expectations for revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, earnings per share of $30 to $33, and gross margin as high as 79%-81%. This is a critical moment for whether the positive news is fully released or the "unexpectedly triggered" moment. In the Q3 financial report, revenue surged 251% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 78.4%. If Q4 continues to deliver on this promise, the stock price is likely to reignite; If it falls short of expectations, then it's a whole different story.
📅 August 13: SanDisk Investor Day
The company will disclose detailed progress on long-term supply agreements. Currently, a minimum contract revenue of $42 billion has been signed, along with $11 billion in financial commitments. This meeting decided whether SanDisk is a "cyclical stock" or a "new business model stock" in terms of valuation.
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🪞 Words from veteran players
SanDisk's long-running story is far from over. The AI storage supercycle, the capacity advantage of the joint venture with Kioxia, and the $42 billion long-term contract—these are real moats.
However, between "long-term optimism" and "going long now," there are two hurdles:
1. Does the current valuation still need further compression?
2. With the August 5 earnings report + August 13 investor day, can they deliver on the market's extremely high expectations?
The naivety of retail investors lies in simplifying "long-term bullishness" into "buy now, buy more as it falls." The wisdom of institutions lies in the fact that the same target at different prices means completely different trades.
⚠️ If you're already trapped: never add leverage to dilute costs during a downturn—that's a dead end.
If you want to enter the market new: wait for the August 5th earnings report to be released and let the bullets fly for a while.
If you are trading contracts/leverage: The current volatility is extremely high, so keep leverage within 2x, and set your stop-loss at the previous low.
A true Alpha is not in the thrill of "grabbing a rebound," but in the patience of "waiting for the right side." It rose 858% in the first half of the year, not missing a rebound in just one or two days. Once the financial report is delivered and the direction becomes clear, then we can compete with the growth players!
Follow me! Feel free to ask questions! Distinguish expectations: small losses but big gains!
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops A-shares for the first day. #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% $SNDK $MU in a single day DeFi Dad went looking for proof Lighter is undervalued vs Hyperliquid.
The fee data didn't cooperate, but he explains why he's bullish anyway:
"I'm a positive-sum bull, bullish on both. But the best part about Lighter is the escape hatch to Ethereum."
"We pulled the last 30 days of fees on both. We were kind of hoping Lighter would look clearly undervalued."
"It wasn't that clean. Hyperliquid was doing 20 to 30x the fees the day we looked. But at a ~$1.5B FDV, I still think there's mispricing, because that guarantee to get back to Ethereum isn't in the number."1️⃣ 8:00 PM Hynix Q2 earnings; next day at 4:00 AM, META, Microsoft, Qualcomm earnings. These earnings reports reflect the fundamentals and development stage of AI;
2️⃣ Tomorrow early morning, the Federal Reserve FOMC and Powell's press conference. This looks at the final results and market positioning deviations, serving as macro guidance. Any deviation will be corrected;
When things are very good, any small flaw is a reason for deterioration; when things are very bad, any small positive is an excuse for recovery. So, when do you think we are now? [SanDisk Plunge Analysis]
Many people confuse the sectors: Changxin produces DRAM memory, SanDisk mainly deals in NAND flash memory, so there is no direct competition in the short term.
Changxin's IPO fundraising for capacity expansion has triggered market concerns about the collapse of the global storage oligopoly pricing system, leading to a collective valuation sell-off across the entire storage sector.
Coupled with SanDisk's previous huge gains from the AI rally, a large number of profit-taking investors fled on the news.
The essence of the market: expectations lead, trading anticipates future industry profit decline risks, rather than current performance damage.
Disclaimer: Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice Less than a year after being acquired, Storj has filed for bankruptcy.
On July 26, this decentralized storage project founded in 2014 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization in a U.S. court. Storj attributed the cause to historical debts, stating that the network and customer services will continue to operate normally, while preparing to sell non-core assets such as the GPU computing power business Valdi, refocusing on its core storage business.
This reorganization also includes a rare arrangement in the crypto space. Storj plans to design a mechanism allowing $STORJ holders to participate in the equity distribution of the reorganized company. Simply put, it attempts to convert tokens into legally protected company shares.
However, so far there is only a promise. The company has not disclosed who can participate, the exchange ratio, or whether snapshots or lock-ups are required. The plan still needs approval from creditors and the court.
But to get equity, one must first see how many creditors are ahead in line. After the company’s bankruptcy, employees, banks, and other creditors have priority. Only if there is residual value after settling these debts might token holders receive equity.
Storj itself holds about 30% of the $STORJ tokens. If the tokens held by the company can also be converted, how equity is divided between management and external holders will become a new issue. After the announcement, $STORJ fell to about $0.06, down approximately 98% from its 2021 peak.
This reorganization by Storj aims to answer a long-standing question in the crypto world: when a project company goes bankrupt, what exactly are the tokens in your wallet?
If debts are fully paid and something remains, they might become equity.
If nothing is left, "token-for-equity" is just a check with no balance. 美股已经阶段性见顶
加密人进美股成了狂热的最后一棒！
Q4是抄底的最好阶段
伴随着美股见顶调整BTC迎来最后一跌！
这轮我最庆幸的就是六月以后一直看空美股，为啥，因为我的好兄弟们都已经进入美股了，连他们都进来了可不就是见顶的标志嘛？
所以，尽管他们在美股偶尔转钱我一直忍住了诱惑，不然我为数不多的资金又蛋疼了！
更值得警惕的是资金情绪。
当越来越多加密投资者开始涌入美股，把科技股当成新的财富密码，这往往是周期后期的典型特征。
如果纳指进入调整，BTC很难完全独立，当美股流动性收缩时
$BTC
可能成为第一批被抛售的资产。
我的判断：Q4可能是今年重要的抄底窗口。
美股如果出现一次深度调整，反而可能完成风险释放，BTC也可能迎来最后一跌，洗掉高杠杆和浮躁资金为下一阶段行情重新蓄力。
市场最危险的时候，不是没人看多，而是所有人都觉得，这一次不一样。$BTC Want to ask Gate: Are the facts as you describe?
The 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD paid by our side first flowed into third-party wallets, after which Gate Alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens. The platform refused to disclose the personnel and process for this listing, and the assets were then transferred from third-party wallets to Gate Alpha for airdrop.
All transfer hashes are traceable, and evidence is publicly available for verification.
After the project completed payment and successfully went live for trading, the platform unilaterally claimed that the communication and liaison personnel were external scammers.
The project ultimately successfully listed on Gate Exchange. This explanation alone cannot dispel all doubts; this matter has seriously damaged Gate's market credibility. We demand a transparent and complete official response.Institutional entry = positive news? I only recognize half; the other half is retail investors being used as liquidity
Whenever news comes about a listed company buying another amount of ETH and a net inflow into BlackRock IBIT, the comment section is flooded with positive news realizing and confirming a bull market.
But if you look at the negative examples from recent years, this equation actually has a big flaw:
1. Institutions are not here to give money; they are here to arbitrage and exit
The most classic is the Grayscale GBTC. Before converting to a spot ETF in January 2024, it was an openly marketed whale by institutions; after switching to an ETF, it became a source of sustained selling pressure—early share unlocking + high fees for low fees, GBTC saw a cumulative net outflow of several billion USD. BTC didn't follow institutional entry and instead was hit by a pullback.
The first move institutions make when entering is often to cash out profits from their old positions.
2. Institutional endorsement for Treasury Shares (DAT) turns into retail investors taking over
Last year, SharpLink (SBET) raised 425 million ETH from PIPE funding from institutions like Consensys and Pantera, with the narrative maxing out, and its stock price soared from $3 to $124.
As a result, as soon as the S-3 registration documents were released (PIPE shares could be resold), after-hours flash crashes by 70%; Later, when ETH pulled back, SBET's stock price dropped over 80% from its peak, and its ETH holdings suffered a floating loss of nearly $1.8 billion, with the stock trading at a long-term discount to ETH's net asset value.
Institutions are trading at discounts to buy chips→ driving narratives→ retail investors chase wealth stocks→ and institutions reduce their positions and resell. This is not a positive news cycle, but a structural harvest.
3. ETF net inflows ≠ coin prices are bound to rise
There was a similar incident in July 2026: IBIT saw net inflows for several consecutive days, but GBTC+FBTC were simultaneously outflowing, Coinbase's premium was negative for 50 consecutive days, and BTC fell to around 62,000 as it should have fallen.
Institutions are plural, not singular. If A builds positions while B withdraws, the total asset may be net outflow.
My own judgment:
• Institutions are turning crypto into a versatile asset through the long term, reducing the risk of zeroing out—this is truly a positive factor
• But in the short term, every news entry by institutions may already be: before PIPE unlocked, GBTC in replacement, before treasury stock ATM issuances, or when ETF funds lag behind derivatives reductions
• Retail investors treat institutions as long leaders, while institutions treat retail investors' recognition of positive news as liquidity exits
So now, when I see XX institutions buying, my first reaction isn't to rush, but to ask three questions:
(1) Does the carrier he bought (ETF/Treasury stock/PIPE) have unlocking/resale/redemption mechanisms?
(2) Is there anyone in the same type of institution who is backflowing out?
(3) Did the coin price already rise before this news came out (expected overdraft)?
Brothers in the crypto world, when was the last time you got hit by institutional positive news on the mountaintop?CORE CoreDAO's latest announcement claims that 90% of Bitcoin's total network hash rate participates in network delegation, which seems like a major positive. However, upon analysis, it's all just a textual packaging tactic.
The actual effective delegated hash rate on-chain only accounts for 35% of Bitcoin's total network; the 90% figure is an exaggerated statement based on statistics of mining pool support features. The so-called hash rate delegation is merely a block containing a line of marking; Bitcoin's hash rate is not diverted, nor does it provide security backing for the Core chain. Miners participate only to receive inflationary CORE tokens.
The project chose to release the hash rate narrative at this moment with a very clear intention to stabilize: the three major profit flywheels—SatPay, B14G, and ecosystem buybacks—have all missed deadlines, with no positive landing announcements. They can only rely on unverifiable underlying technical concepts to flood the discourse; meanwhile, they hedge against negative doubts about quantitative trading wash sales and large token unlock sell-offs, shaping a decentralized persona, and promoting a network-wide narrative of a 5-15 USD sky-high price expectation within half a year.
Compared to competitors in the BTCFi sector like Babylon, Core chain lags behind comprehensively in on-chain BTC staking volume, institutional funds, and on-chain activity. The hash rate concept cannot compensate for the core issues of an ecosystem with no revenue and continuous inflationary selling pressure. Do not be misled by grand technical narratives into increasing positions or bottom-fishing.
Risk warning: Virtual currency trading speculation is an illegal financial activity in our country. This content only objectively analyzes the project's marketing narrative and does not constitute any holding, staking, or trading advice.He glanced at the account and almost threw his phone out! $SNDK Long position, 10x cross-margin position, opening price 1108, marking price 1123, fully maxed unrealized profit!! The floating profit of over 100 was right there. I stared at the screen, stunned for a long time without moving. This round of profits was really ridiculous. I just woke up and opened the app, and it took off. I was still wondering what happened. But when I saw the news, I understood everything: the US and Iran have ceasefired. Brent crude oil plunged nearly 5%, from over $100 per barrel to 92. Once inflation expectations cooled, the Fed's confidence in raising rates lost their confidence. Do you know what the market is betting on right now? The Fed held a meeting this week, and the probability of rate hikes was hyped up from nearly 40%, but now it's falling back. If the high interest rate environment really stops, the first to take off will be tech stocks and risk assets. But honestly, SNDK's drop like this isn't without reason. It's the company that makes NAND flash and solid-state drives. Previously, it was the one that got hit hardest. On one hand, Chinese memory chip maker CXMT just went public and raised $8 billion, and Apple has even declared it will buy their chips—this stab directly into SanDisk's artery. On the other hand, The market is now starting to have doubts about the massive investment in AI infrastructure: will data centers still buy so many storage devices? Will capital expenditures be cut? So don't be fooled by its strong rebound; essentially, it fell too deeply earlier, then caught macro positive signals and institutions just bought back positions. My long position opened at a decent level, with a stop-loss set at 981, and if it breaks, I exit; and a take-profit at 170韩国股市一天跌了10.84%，AI芯片这笔账开始重新算了
今天韩国股市真的把我看懵了。
KOSPI收盘暴跌10.84%，盘中最大跌幅达到11.29%，还触发了熔断。三星电子收跌13.39%，SK海力士跌了14.65%。
日本日经225指数也跌了接近4%，台湾加权指数跌4.7%。今天被卖得最狠的，基本都是过去一年最热门的AI和半导体股票。
我一开始也以为，今天主要是市场在担心美国科技公司烧钱太多。把新闻都看完以后，韩国这次暴跌还有几个更直接的导火索。
长鑫科技上市首日暴涨，让市场重新担心中国存储芯片公司的竞争。一则关于中国国产DUV芯片设备开始量产的报道，也进一步刺激了这种担忧。
再加上三星和SK海力士前面涨得太多，韩国还有不少跟踪这两家公司股票的杠杆ETF。市场一旦开始跌，杠杆产品又会把波动继续放大。
所以今天这轮暴跌，很难只用一个原因解释。但AI资本开支到底什么时候回本，确实已经成了市场绕不开的问题。前两年谷歌、微软、Meta只要宣布增加数据中心和芯片投入，市场通常都会很兴奋，觉得AI需求又要爆了。
现在大家看到这种新闻，第一反应变成了：怎么还要加钱？到底要烧多少？什么时候才能回本？
Alphabet $GOOGL 上周刚把今年资本开支预期提高到1950亿至2050亿美元。第二季度资本开支达到449亿美元，自由现金流转成了负59亿美元。
同一季度，Google Cloud收入增长了82%，说明AI和云业务的需求确实还在。只是钱花出去的速度，比现金赚回来的速度更快。公司生意没有突然变差，市场只是没有以前那么愿意等了。
以前只要证明AI有需求，投资者就愿意给高估值。现在还得继续证明，这些需求最后真的能变成利润和现金。三星和SK海力士今天跌这么多，也不代表两家公司一天之内变差了十几个点。它们处在AI存储产业链的核心位置，前面涨得多，仓位也很拥挤。现在又碰上中国厂商竞争、估值过高和杠杆资金减仓，股价自然会先挨刀。
今天的行情也顺便说明，科技股大跌的时候，加密资产很难保证自己完全不受影响。
亚洲早盘，$BTC 一度下跌2.3%至63414美元附近，$ETH 跌了3.6%。资金真要减风险时，通常会先卖流动性好的资产。这个时候芯片股和主流币完全可能被放进同一个卖出篮子里。
后面这波能不能稳住，还是要看生意本身。三星和SK海力士的订单有没有减少，存储价格和利润率会不会松；谷歌、微软这些公司花出去的钱，能不能慢慢从云业务和AI产品里赚回来。订单没掉，现金流也慢慢跟上，那今天更像是前面涨得太多，现在集中挤一遍泡沫。
要是中国厂商继续抢市场，AI资本开支还越烧越多，回本时间一直往后拖，芯片股的估值还得继续往下算，币圈也别想完全躲开。
现在还不能直接说AI需求不行了。能确定的是，市场已经没有以前那么好说话。大家前面为AI付了很高的价格，现在开始催这些公司拿出成绩单了。鹰派维持观望态度使BTC明天的下行风险依然存在。Polymarket大约有四分之三的概率预测维持不变，四分之一的概率预测加息0.25个百分点。维持观望仍保留紧缩的选择权，因此短期利率仍可能上升。BTC在7月28日晚间徘徊于63,900美元附近，接近七天低点，这一疲软也与韩国股市暴跌及参议院搁置《加密清晰法案》同时发生。如果决议后短期利率上升，BTC的首次反弹很可能被抛售，下行趋势仍被看好。$BTC "DataHunter US Stock Research Report" · July 29, 2026
Understanding the Market Through Data
📋 Summary of This Issue
US stocks closed Tuesday continuing an extreme divergence pattern: the Dow Jones rose over 500 points to a new high, the Nasdaq fell for the fourth consecutive day, and chip stocks were bloodied. Apple's intraday market cap surpassed $5 trillion for the first time, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.49%. Oil prices continued to decline, the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.645%, but the market remained cautious ahead of the FOMC decision. Wall Street is undergoing a rare capital migration—from a full exit of AI hardware to a surge into traditional economy and consumer sectors.
📊 1. Market Review
The three major US indices showed mixed gains and losses, with the gap between the Dow and Nasdaq widening further:
· Dow Jones: up 537.24 points (+1.03%), closing at 52,747.32
· S&P 500: up 15.60 points (+0.21%), closing at 7,428.78
· Nasdaq: down 55.17 points (-0.22%), closing at 24,876.91, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of decline
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.49%, down over 25% from its June peak. The divergence between the Dow and Nasdaq is rare in recent years.
💻 2. The Big Seven Tech Giants: Apple Reigns, Nvidia Bloodied
Severe divergence appeared among the big seven tech giants:
Apple (AAPL): up 0.94%, intraday market cap surpassed $5 trillion, becoming the first company globally to reach this milestone. It has gained 25% year-to-date, outperforming all leading tech stocks. Apple maintains low capital expenditure, relying more on Google Cloud infrastructure rather than burning cash on AI like other giants—the market is rewarding "restraint."
Nvidia (NVDA): intraday plunged nearly 5%, the largest single-day drop since June 5. Dragged down by doubts over "circular financing" and rumors of "a $250 billion guarantee to OpenAI."
Google (GOOGL): up 2.19%. Tesla (TSLA): down 0.58%. Microsoft (MSFT): up 1.09%. Amazon (AMZN): down 0.23%. Meta (META): down 0.08%.
SpaceX (SPCX): up 2.63%, closing at $116.41.
🔪 3. Chip Stocks: Bloodbath, SK Hynix Below IPO Price
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.49%, with storage chips and optical communication sectors hit hardest:
· SanDisk (SNDK): down over 14%, halved from its high
· Kioxia ADR: down over 14%, down more than 57% from late June highs
· SK Hynix (SKHY): down over 8%, below its US IPO issue price
· AMD: down over 8%
· Micron Technology (MU): down over 8%
· Intel (INTC): down over 5%
AI hardware stocks have been systemically sold for the fourth consecutive trading day. Roundhill Storage ETF (DRAM) closed down 8.89%. Corning fell over 12%, Coherent dropped over 10%. Capital is fully withdrawing from the AI infrastructure sector.
🛢️ 4. Macro: Oil Prices Continue to Fall, but FOMC Is the Real Focus
Oil prices: Brent crude plunged 9.26% to $87.82/barrel, WTI down 8.19% to $82.00/barrel. The direct cause was Trump's statement that the US and Iran are having "good talks," raising market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
US Treasuries: 10-year yield fell 3.2 basis points to 4.645%.
Dollar Index: slightly up 0.07% to 101.54.
The oil price drop is positive but completely overshadowed by the FOMC. IC Markets noted that historically, a sharp oil price drop should trigger a US stock rebound, but none occurred last night—investors are fully focused on tomorrow morning's FOMC decision.
🏛️ 5. FOMC: The Most Difficult Meeting to Predict in Nearly a Decade
The Federal Reserve's July meeting was held July 28-29 Eastern Time, with the rate decision to be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing Time on July 30 (Thursday).
CME data shows: 63.7% probability of holding rates steady, 36.3% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
A 36% chance of a rate hike means the market does not see "no change" as a done deal. The meeting is called "the hardest to predict in recent years" by multiple institutions. The divergence stems from Waller's abandonment of forward guidance, making each meeting a "real-time" adjustment. Bianco Research's president said: "No forward guidance means we will frequently see probability distributions of 20%, 30%, 40%."
🔄 6. Mapping to Crypto Assets
BTC currently around $63,500, under pressure for several days. Over 130,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours, totaling $605 million. BTC briefly fell below $63,000 during US stock hours, the first time since July 17.
The extreme divergence of US stocks—Dow up, Nasdaq down—reflects a risk appetite contraction transferring to the crypto market. Traditional economy sectors are favored while tech stocks are sold off. Investors are reassessing the impact of a higher interest rate environment on risk assets.
📝 7. Summary
The market is at a crossroads of three intertwined narratives:
First, massive capital migration. A full exit from AI hardware into consumer and traditional economy sectors. Apple's market cap surpassing $5 trillion and SanDisk halving are happening simultaneously in the same market.
Second, FOMC looming. A 36% chance of a rate hike means anything can happen tomorrow morning. The uncertainty premium of the Waller era is fully priced in.
Third, geopolitical easing but unresolved. The oil price plunge is positive, but the Strait of Hormuz has not truly reopened.
At 2:00 AM tomorrow, all will be revealed.
Risk Warning: This article is a research note and does not constitute investment advice.
DataHunter | Understanding the Market Through Data#停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day
What happened?
WTI crude oil futures plunged 8.68% in a single day, marking the largest single-day drop this year. Brent crude plunged 8.7% simultaneously, closing at $88.36 per barrel. The cumulative decline over the past few trading days has been even more astonishing.
Why the crash?
The direct trigger was the U.S. suspension of military operations against Iran. On the 25th, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes against Iran that day, ending the nearly two-week, 13-day daily strike campaign. Trump stated that the United States is negotiating with Iran to end the Middle East conflict.
The geopolitical risk premium previously established by the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East is rapidly evaporating. The market is trading in the "expectation of a reduction in supply risk," rather than actual supply recovery—the shipping bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved.
What do you think comes next?
Institutions are generally skeptical of a ceasefire. Energy analysis institutions such as Nordic Sian Bank and PVM believe that this round of temporary ceasefires without substantive agreement support is not sustainable. Iran stated that there are currently no direct negotiations with the United States, and only communication is maintained through Oman regarding the issue of navigation through the strait. WTI crude oil is currently seeking support near $80.
Macroeconomic impact:
The sharp drop in oil prices has directly penetrated the inflation narrative—one of the core factors suppressing rate cut expectations in recent months has been energy prices. If oil prices can hold steady in the coming weeks, August inflation data will improve significantly, opening up room for the Fed to comment on Thursday.
In short: Geopolitical risk premiums are rapidly clearing away, but the ceasefire is only a "verbal signal" rather than a "written agreement"—the risk of an oil price rebound has not been eliminated. $CL $BZ #财报观察员：OKX大师课今晚开播，带你看懂四大科技巨头财报
When will the earnings reports of the four major tech giants be released?
This week is the "Super Earnings Week." The specific schedule:
Microsoft: July 29 (Wednesday) after market close
Meta: July 29 (Wednesday) after market close
Apple: July 30 (Thursday)
Amazon: July 30 (Thursday)
What is the market focusing on?
There is only one core question: With so much money spent on AI, has it actually paid off?
By 2026, the combined AI capital expenditure of Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta is expected to be about $725 billion. Meta's capital expenditure will surge from $70 billion in 2025 to $125-145 billion in 2026. Amazon's free cash flow has dropped close to zero, and Microsoft's stock buybacks have fallen to a ten-year low.
Wall Street's patience is wearing thin. Last week's Google earnings report already sparked doubts about the ROI of AI investments. If the earnings reports of Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon show that huge investments have yet to bring significant returns, tech stock valuations may face a new round of pressure.
What will the OKX Masterclass focus on?
Tonight's OKX Masterclass centers on the theme "Earnings Observer," with the key points helping investors understand: Have the capital expenditure guidance of the four giants been adjusted? Can AI business revenue growth match the scale of investment? Will demand for storage chips (directly related to Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) slow down due to the giants cutting back on data center construction?
In short: Tonight's earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta are the midterm exam of the "AI arms race"—whether they pass or fail will determine the direction of the entire tech sector going forward. $MSFT $META $AAPL Last Friday, the U.S. officially announced the latest tariff rates for the Section 301 investigation covering 60 countries and regions worldwide. Not at the negotiating table, not at a media briefing, but directly issuing documents. Sixty countries, the same "notice." When most people saw this news, their first reaction was: tariffs added again? Then they swiped it away. But what really gave me chills wasn't the tariff figures themselves. It was the way this happened. This isn't a trade friction, it's a redrawing of the financial landscape. Think about it—the U.S. issuing tariff standards to 60 countries simultaneously, what does that mean? It means it's no longer negotiating one by one. It used to be "I'll negotiate with you, you negotiate with him," but now it's "I'll set the rules, you handle it yourselves." This is no longer a negotiation posture, but a notification gesture. PGIM's chief economist said something interesting: today's trade policy has shifted from "bargaining" to "drawing lines and taking sides." The key is not tariffs. The key lies in the settlement logic behind the tariffs. For decades, global trade had a default underlying system: dollar settlement, SWIFT channels, and the US banking system acting as intermediaries. All cross-border money basically had to "pass through" the US. But now, this system is being torn apart by two forces simultaneously. One is US sanctions and tariffs. When the US uses tariffs as weapons and SWIFT as weapons, other countries start trying to "detour." You can't use a system where you could be kicked out at any time for long-term planning. Also,$BEAT Now you can only close your position and test the waters, unlocking it soon
Basic unlocking information
Unlock time: August 1, 09:00 Beijing time
Total unlocked: 21.25 million tokens, accounting for 6.9% of circulating ≈
Share Composition: Community 86.3%, Foundation 13.7%
Historical reference: On July 1, unlocked at the same scale, with strong capital support and a rebound; Historical performance does not represent this trend.
1~2 days before unlocking (7.30–7.31)
Watch for early risk-off behavior: If the decline continues and the highs keep dropping, it indicates the market is worried about unlocking selling pressure in advance.
08:30–09:30 (one hour before and after unlocking, peak volatility)
Pay close attention to the strength of intraday support; don't rush to follow the crowd—wait for the direction to become clear.
4~12 hours after unlocking
Confirm whether selling pressure continues to be released: short-term decline followed by rapid stabilization = acceptable support; Continuous bearish decline = selling pressure not digested.
2~3 trading days after unlocking
Final conclusion window: After short-term sentiment is digested, prices will choose a medium-term direction.
Before the unlock, there may be sell-offs or strong rallies and sell-offs, so you can only test the waters with shallow positions$GODS Currently quoted at $0.0197, down 6.29% in 24 hours. According to OKX real-time data, intraday high reached 0.0210, lowest dipped to 0.0192, with an amplitude of 0.0%, indicating front-end data truncation, with a true fluctuation of about 8.6%. Transaction volume data has not yet been fully presented, but from the deep order book, there are sporadic buy orders around 0.0190, while selling pressure is concentrated above 0.0205, indicating weak short-term liquidity. The on-chain dimension provides a clearer token structure. The MVRV ratio is currently around 0.82, meaning all circulating $GODS are on average in floating losses, with unrealized losses of about 18%. Historically, when this value falls below 0.8, it often corresponds to a phased bottom area. Although the current level has not touched an extreme value, it has entered a high-odds observation range. The 24-hour average of the SOPR indicator is 0.94, indicating that moving chips are generally being shifted in a state of slight loss, with holders' willingness to stop losses gradually waning and panic selling momentum shrinking. URPD data more vividly characterizes the supply wall. On-chain, about 34 million $GODS tokens have accumulated in the 0.0201-0.0215 range, which is a densely traded zone formed by the previous round of platform consolidation. After the price broke below this range, it has turned into a resistance zone. Below, there is only about 12 million tokens turnover between 0.0185-0.0190, indicating relatively weak support. If bears make another move, the risk of slippage cannot be ignored. On exchange balances, about $2.1 million of $GODS flowed in the past 48 hours, partly from in-game reward withdrawals from Gods Unchained, which increased short-term selling pressure but also laid the groundwork for a potential rebound. Technically, the hourly moving average system is in a bearish alignment. After the 5-period moving average crosses below the 21-period moving average, it continues to suppress the price. After the MACD forms a death cross below the zero axis, the green bars shorten, indicating that the downward momentum has slightly weakened but has not reversed. The RSI hovers weakly near 34, lacking oversold signals and reflecting insufficient confidence in bullish momentum. In the next 24 hours, if $GODS fails to rise above 0.0201 with increased volume, it is highly likely to continue testing the 0.0188 support along the descending channel. Conversely, if a pin appears near 0.0190 and pulls back, it can be seen as a short-term stabilization signal. The data flow of the financial center and the visual elements of digital art in the illustration perfectly echo Gods Unchained's dual attributes as a blockchain game art asset: the tug-of-war between liquidity and cultural value. Currently, the narrative of digital art remains popular, but liquidity is the core factor determining price elasticity. Direction judgment: Short-term bias is bearish; in the medium term, waiting for MVRV to further converge below 0.75 will form a left-side opportunity. None of the above constitutes investment advice. #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
What happened to the Korean stock market?
South Korea's KOSPI index closed with a sharp drop of 10.84% today, falling over 11% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes. This marks the eighth time this year that the Korean stock market has triggered a circuit breaker. The two major heavyweight stocks took the hardest hit—SK Hynix fell 14.7%, Samsung Electronics dropped about 14%, with these two companies accounting for more than half of the KOSPI index's weight.
What did Changxin Storage do?
Domestic DRAM leader Changxin Technology (688825.SH) debuted on the STAR Market on July 27, opening at ¥49.5, a surge of 471.59% from the issue price of ¥8.66. Its closing market capitalization exceeded ¥3.31 trillion, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become the new market cap king of A-shares. The total turnover for the day was ¥141.19 billion, setting a record for the highest single-day trading volume for an A-share stock.
Why the plunge?
This is a "double blow":
First, Changxin's listing has completely changed the global memory chip competition landscape. Changxin has become the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, holding a 7.67% market share with a monthly capacity of 320,000 wafers. The market worries that after large-scale financing, Changxin will aggressively expand production—Nomura Research shows that by 2028, Changxin's capacity will expand to 550,000 wafers/month, increasing its global share from 10% to 18%, close to Micron's 20%+—the global DRAM market is officially moving from a triopoly to a four-player competition.
Second, news of mass production of domestically made immersion DUV lithography machines has emerged, with plans to produce about 5 units this year and a target of 20 units next year, to be delivered to SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Changxin Storage. This means the equipment bottleneck in China's chip manufacturing is being broken.
The Korea Exchange official statement pointed out that the sharp drop in KOSPI is also related to Nvidia's five-year credit default swap (CDS) premium hitting a record single-day increase, with market concerns sharply rising over the credit risk of its over $750 billion AI financing deal.
In summary: Changxin's listing plus the mass production of domestic lithography machines have dealt a double shock that pierced the valuation logic of global memory chips, and the Korean stock market, highly dependent on Samsung and Hynix, was the first to bear the brunt.Do you agree with the logic that institutional entry = positive news? Are there any negative examples?
Many traders assume one iron rule: as soon as institutional funds enter the market, ETF net inflows, or whales hoard, they immediately judge the market as bullish. But my view is clear: institutional entry is just a reference signal and cannot be directly equated with positive news. There are many cases of negative trends in the market.
Let me first share a few real-life negative scenarios:
Good news is taking effect, buying expectations and selling facts
The BTC spot ETF was officially approved for listing, with sustained net capital inflows in the early stages, but the coin price actually saw a sharp correction in the first week after launch. Before the news spreads online, institutions have quietly started positioning; retail investors chase after the news, just in time to absorb the selling pressure from institutions.
Funds continue to flow in, and the market remains bearish
Historically, there have been multiple consecutive days of net ETF inflows and Strategy continuously increasing BTC holdings, but prices have remained volatile and downward. The institutional layout cycle is quarterly, allowing it to withstand long-term floating losses; Short-term trends are dominated by macro liquidity and market selling pressure, making it difficult for long-term funds to immediately reverse the short-term trend.
Distinguishing the nature of the funds, many entries are just a facade
Many hedge funds have made large purchases of spot while opening short positions in the futures market; Large on-chain transfers are just internal address transfers within the institution, not new positions. Just seeing transfer news and being bullish is easy to misjudge.
Leveraged institutions are hiding long-term selling pressure
Strategy's continuous margin financing to buy BTC is a form of leveraged accumulation. If the market remains sluggish for a long time and interest payment pressure increases, the market will continue to worry about being forced to sell BTC to repay debts, and capital inflows may instead trigger a game over debt risks in the market.
My core judgment: when will institutions enter the market truly be considered a positive signal? Sustained, multi-channel long-term capital inflows, combined with macro conditions and fully released selling pressure, and multiple signals resonating, will have the opportunity to drive the trend upward.
Beware of blindly bullish on a single signal
An isolated buy or single-day ETF inflow can only represent partial capital activity. If the overall environment is bearish and more institutions are positioning in batches, it will still be difficult to withstand market selling pressure in the short term.
The most important understanding: institutions and retail investors have completely different trading goals. Institutions can wait several months for the cycle to cash out; Most ordinary traders are short-term traders and blindly follow institutional trends, making it easy to withstand the prolonged shakeout during the period.Have all crypto investors turned to trading US stocks?
This year, the market has indeed seen a rather obvious phenomenon: more and more crypto funds are focusing on RWAs, which has suppressed some on-chain liquidity.
However, many people neither truly understand crypto assets nor the stock market, and simply keep switching tracks following hot topics.
The stock market and the cryptocurrency market are essentially two completely different systems.
Behind the stock market are corporate operations, profitability, and cash flow, while crypto assets rely more on blockchain networks, protocol value, on-chain economies, and the development of decentralized infrastructure. The two can be merged, but this does not mean losing their underlying logic.
What's even more noteworthy is that this round of integration is not the crypto world actively embracing Wall Street, but rather Wall Street actively seeking integration with the crypto market. Whether it's stablecoins, RWA, asset tokenization, or on-chain settlement, custody, and clearing systems, essentially, traditional finance leverages blockchain infrastructure to improve efficiency.
Many years ago, many people with crypto assets inexplicably became wealthy, but also lost their wealth as technology became less common.
The development of technology is gradually erasing many excess gains that rely on information gaps and luck.
For crypto whales who have not yet completed their mindset shift, as the market enters the era of crypto-stock integration, the experience accumulated in a single market is rapidly losing its effectiveness. If you continue to follow the bull market inertia and frequently switch between stocks and crypto markets, it's essentially like running naked.
On-chain data shows that in recent months, many active whales have repeatedly switched positions between stocks and crypto assets, with some accounts experiencing significant asset drawdowns. Some will gradually exit the market, while others will lose most of the advantages they accumulated in the past during this reshuffle.#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
Many people regard Changxin as the next SpaceX; this comparison has basically become an open secret now.
SpaceX is a typical case of high FDV combined with an extremely low circulating supply, and as everyone has seen, it has steadily declined from a high of 200 down to 113.
So, what is Changxin's current situation?
• Sky-high valuation: The current single share price is 49, with a total market value reaching 3.3 trillion RMB.
• Extremely low volume: The actual circulating supply is very low; nearly 80% of the shares are locked by new share subscription funds, leaving only 6.73% truly tradable on the secondary market.
Besides this, there are hardly any fundamental variables left to discuss. The only looming Damocles sword is the massive unlocking scheduled for six months from now.
Therefore, the real decisive battle is the game from now until the unlocking window half a year later. Previously, such situations were hard to break, but now with effective shorting/hedging tools available in the market, institutional funds have a strong "risk hedging demand."
Understanding this institutional bottom line also reveals where ordinary people’s opportunities lie.
#长鑫上市首日遇冷，高估值低流通引热议
#停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68%
$BTC $ETH $AEON Semiconductor Morning Brief | After the storage stocks' sharp fluctuations, the market's real focus is not on the decline, but on the competitive landscape in the AI era
Yesterday, the semiconductor sector experienced a clear adjustment.
SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung, and other storage-related companies came under pressure, with market attention focused on the impact brought by ChangXin Technology's listing.
But if you only look at the surface-level price changes, it's easy to draw the wrong conclusion:
"Domestic storage has arrived, Micron and Hynix will be replaced."
In fact, the capital market is trading a deeper issue:
Will the competitive landscape of the global storage industry change in the AI era?
This is more important than a single day's stock price fluctuation.
⸻
📉 Market Review Yesterday: AI leaders begin to enter a valuation digestion phase
Over the past two years, AI has been the strongest theme in the global capital markets.
Companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC, Micron, and Hynix have all benefited from AI infrastructure construction.
But as stock prices continue to rise, the market has shifted from:
"Will AI explode?"
to:
"When will the money invested in AI convert into profits?"
This is an important change in investment logic.
Previously, the market traded on future imagination space.
Now the market is starting to focus on:
Whether capital expenditures continue;
Whether corporate profits are realized;
Whether the competitive landscape changes.
This is also the reason for the recent increased volatility in semiconductors.
⸻
💾 Storage Industry: What is the real impact brought by ChangXin?
The biggest significance of ChangXin's listing is not the short-term impact on Micron and Hynix's performance.
The real impact is:
The global DRAM market may enter a more intense competition phase in the future.
For many years, the DRAM market has been highly concentrated.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron hold the main market shares.
The reason for this pattern is not just capital.
More importantly:
Technical accumulation.
Production experience.
Customer certification.
Yield improvement.
The biggest barrier in the semiconductor industry is time.
So in the short term, the global storage leaders still have obvious advantages.
⸻
🤖 AI remains the biggest variable in the storage industry
Many investors doubt AI when they see storage stocks fall.
But these two logics should not be confused.
Will AI demand continue to grow?
This is an industry issue.
Short-term stock price adjustment?
This is a market issue.
Currently, AI infrastructure construction has not stopped.
In the coming years:
AI servers.
HBM high-bandwidth memory.
Enterprise-grade SSDs.
Advanced packaging.
Will still be important directions in the semiconductor industry.
⸻
🔍 Today's key focus on three directions
① Micron (MU)
Key observations:
Whether the market continues to worry about storage competition;
Whether AI storage demand is being repriced;
Whether stock price adjustments bring long-term capital attention.
Micron's biggest opportunity still comes from AI storage upgrades, and its biggest risk comes from storage cycles re-entering a pressure phase.
⸻
② SK Hynix
SK Hynix is currently an important player in the HBM field.
Market focus:
Whether future AI chip demand continues to maintain high-speed growth.
If AI data center investment continues to expand, high-end storage will still have strong demand.
⸻
③ Nvidia Industry Chain
The recent volatility of AI leaders also reflects the market's re-evaluation of:
How much return future AI investments can generate.
Nvidia itself remains the core AI computing company, but the entire industry chain's valuation is entering a more rational phase.
⸻
📌 Today's core market question
Is not:
"Is the semiconductor industry over?"
But:
"Which companies will the future profits of the AI industry chain flow to?"
The future winners may not be all AI companies.
But:
Those with technological advantages.
Those with customer resources.
Those with industry barriers.
Those able to continuously generate profits.
⸻
🎯 My view
I believe yesterday's storage stock adjustment is essentially an industry expectation repricing.
ChangXin's listing made the market realize:
Future storage industry competition will be more intense.
But intense competition does not mean no opportunities in the industry.
In fact, truly valuable industries often go through competition.
The internet is like this.
New energy vehicles are like this.
AI will be like this in the future.
For investors, the important thing is not to judge a day's rise or fall, but to judge:
Which companies can survive cycles in the AI era.
The storage industry is still worth attention in the coming years, but the investment logic has shifted from the "AI story" to the "corporate competitiveness" stage.
⸻
💬 Today's interaction: If the storage industry enters a new round of competition, who do you think will be the biggest winner in the future? Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, or ChangXin? (1) SK Hynix Current Market: SK Hynix's listed shares in Korea plunged 14.65% on Tuesday, closing at 1.55 million KRW, marking the largest single-day drop in months. The stock price has plummeted nearly 47% from its June high, with its market value evaporating by nearly $600 billion in just over a month. On the ADR side, it closed down 8.98% on Tuesday, having fallen below the IPO price of $149. Earnings expectations and market reaction: SK Hynix will release its Q2 earnings report on July 29. According to a survey by Yonhap News Agency of 14 Korean securities firms, Q2 revenue is estimated at 84.1 trillion won, with quarterly profits expected to surpass the previous record of 47.2 trillion won for the full year of 2025—"one quarter earns more than the previous year." But the record earnings expectations failed to prevent the stock price from plunging. South Korea's Must Asset Management stated that the impressive financial report "is still not enough to be a strong catalyst for a stock price rebound," and the market focus is on whether the company can improve shareholder returns through stock buybacks and whether hyperscale data center operators continue to increase AI capital investment. Reasons for the decline: (1) Market doubts about the prospects for large-scale investment in AI infrastructure are deepening; (2) The recent launch of CXMT in China and the expansion of domestic memory chip production have sparked competition concerns; (3) South Korea's KOSPI index once dropped 10.8% that day, triggering a circuit breaker. Summary: SK Hynix is experiencing a brutal valuation return where all the good news is exhausted. The Q2 financial report itself has been largely digested by the market, and whether the stock price can stabilize depends on the company's future capital expenditure plans and shareholder returns$CORE Hash power promotion masks chip inflation and unlocking selling pressure, lacking support for market risk appetite. Only 35% of the actual on-chain effective delegated computing power is limited, and miners are postponed due to token inflation incentives, resulting in the ecosystem profit flywheel implementation. When large chips are unlocked and inflationary selling pressure is concentrated, long positions face downside liquidation risks. Subsequent observation indicators show that on-chain actual effective entrusted computing power has surpassed 40%, and BTC staking volume has returned to net inflow.
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Positive Factors or Cutoff?😫 His mindset completely collapsed! After persisting for so long on ETH, I finally broke free and then rushed into BTC long positions, only to be stuck again, repeatedly slapping in the face. Looking back, OKB is the true king of the sideways movement, so steady it's hard to believe.
Now I completely don't want to share any trading ideas—going long is really too difficult.
Recently, the market has entered a completely unpredictable state of chaos. The correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stocks has reached a historic high. The US market opened with a sharp drop, and BTC and ETH inevitably fell in tandem. Want to fall together, want to escape? There was no way to get started. Currently, there is no independent market at all; all movements depend on the US stock market. The win rate for going long is ridiculously low, repeatedly trapped and stopping losses, leaving you physically and mentally exhausted.
This market structure, which heavily relies on U.S. stock sentiment, has essentially reinforced the "risk asset" attribute of cryptocurrencies to the extreme. Liquidity outflows and capital hedging are almost contrarian operations at this stage. If US stocks continue to be under pressure, altcoins will likely suffer even worse, and the so-called "alternative narrative" simply doesn't hold up at present.
The market is telling you a harsh truth: now is not the time to compete in technical analysis, but to see who can see the macro rhythm. Either wait for US stocks to stabilize, or wait for Bitcoin to show signs of independent divergence. Besides that, the margin for error for going long is almost zero.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
In the early hours of Thursday, U.S. AI giants face a "triple life-or-death strike"
This time, the market is not just waiting for a simple interest rate decision, nor a financial report.
Instead, it’s to verify a question:
Is the trillion-dollar AI investment a future productivity revolution, or a fantasy that the capital market is prematurely overdrawing?
Beijing time early Thursday:
🕑 02:00
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision.
The market has basically priced in — rates will remain unchanged.
So what really affects the market is not whether rates will be cut or not, but what signals the Fed releases:
Is there still room for future rate cuts?
Can high-valuation tech stocks continue to enjoy a premium?
⸻
🕓 After 04:00
Microsoft and Meta earnings reports come one after another.
On the surface, these companies remain strong.
But the capital market is no longer focused on "how much money was made," but rather:
When will the money invested in AI start to generate returns?
Last week’s Google earnings were actually not bad, but due to huge AI capital expenditures, quarterly free cash flow was compressed or even turned negative, and the stock price remained under pressure.
Tesla even plunged 14% in one day, as the market is re-evaluating:
Has the era of tech giants burning money wildly entered a valuation re-assessment phase?
⸻
This year:
Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon’s AI capital expenditures are expected to exceed $725 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 77%.
Here’s the question:
With such huge investments in AI servers, data centers, chips, and power,
Will the future profits be able to cover today’s investments?
This is the real concern on Wall Street.
⸻
📌 Microsoft needs to prove:
The growth rate of its Azure cloud business can match the wildly expanding data center investments.
📌 Meta needs to prove:
The cash flow generated by its advertising business can fill the huge black hole of long-term AI investments.
⸻
The market may see two possible trends next:
✅ Friendly interest rate environment + earnings prove AI commercialization is accelerating
AI stocks may usher in a new round of gains, with capital flowing back.
❌ Fed leans hawkish + earnings show AI investment returns are insufficient
Then this may not be an ordinary correction, but:
Wall Street starts looking for payers for the AI bills that have been piled up crazily over the past few years.
⸻
What really decides is not just the rise or fall of Microsoft and Meta.
But the entire valuation logic of the AI era:
How much it’s worth in the future depends on whether the money burned now can turn into cash flow.
What the market fears most is not the story ending, but discovering the story hasn’t made money yet.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议Geopolitical premium fading does not equal an influx of crypto liquidity
Between market appearances and real pricing, there is a transmission path through the FOMC.
Brent crude oil has dropped from triple digits to $91, WTI has fallen below $84, and ceasefire expectations have risen to 75%. Nasdaq futures opened 1.4% higher, BTC rebounded above $65,000. The market surface pricing reflects the single variable of "geopolitical risk resolution."
But the cross-market transmission structure is: the oil price decline first changes the inflation expectation path, rather than directly injecting liquidity into the crypto market. The macro capital's first reaction is to recalibrate the FOMC's rate cut timetable, not to immediately increase BTC positions. BTC is the third stop in this chain, not the first.
Conditions for a bullish path to hold:
- Continued oil price weakness drives inflation expectations down, FOMC language clearly turns dovish, and rate cut expectations are brought forward
- This requires the FOMC decision this week to provide substantial easing signals, not just "wait and see"
- If Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon earnings beat expectations simultaneously, risk appetite may spill over from Nasdaq to BTC
Bearish risks and trigger conditions:
- If the oil price decline is reinterpreted by the market as a sign of global demand weakness (rather than just a ceasefire effect), recession pricing will transmit from the oil market to equities and crypto
- If next week's PMI or employment data show weak readings, market logic could flip overnight
- If the FOMC maintains a "wait and see" stance, it is neutral rather than positive for risk assets—no tightening does not equal easing
- The $900 million FTX compensation this week may create short-term selling pressure on BTC
Key contradiction: BTC at $65,000 is already pricing in three things in advance—ceasefire implementation, FOMC dovish tilt, and no earnings disasters. The predicted market probability for the ceasefire is 75%, which itself indicates the market has already celebrated early. If any one of these three does not align, the $65K "advance premium" will turn into "correction space."
Conclusion: This week, with the FOMC, tech giant earnings, and FTX compensation all happening simultaneously, BTC's current pricing has very low tolerance for error. Is your position betting on the ceasefire, or on the complete macro transmission chain?
Risk reminder: Ceasefire expectations are partially priced in; FOMC language and earnings data are the real variables this week.
$BTC $ETH $WTISK Hynix's earnings report looks scary at first glance: Q2 revenue of 79.3 trillion KRW, operating profit of 60.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%, and an operating margin of about 76%. It hardly looks like a company with fundamental problems. But the market's answer was very direct — after-hours trading saw a drop of nearly 9%.
I actually think the most worth noting about this drop is not Hynix itself, but how high market expectations have already risen. Previously, the market expected Q2 revenue of about 84 trillion KRW and operating profit of about 64 trillion KRW, so even though the actual profit hit a record high, as long as it didn’t exceed those numbers, investors still sold first.
This actually gives a very realistic wake-up call to the AI rally: you can no longer simply explain semiconductor and tech stock gains by saying "AI demand is still growing." HBM demand is indeed strong, AI data centers are still investing continuously, and Hynix even said it has signed long-term agreements with about 10 major customers, with HBM4 entering mass production ramp-up. The problem is, when these good news are known to the market earlier and earlier, what really determines the stock price is no longer "whether it’s good," but "whether it’s good enough to exceed what everyone has already bet on."
So I won’t judge the AI bubble has burst just because of this drop in Hynix. On the contrary, I prefer to see it as a valuation stress test. In the past, the market was used to seeing strong AI demand, chip price increases, and rising capital expenditures, and would directly give related assets higher valuations; but now investors are starting to demand companies show higher profit growth to justify those valuations. The AI industry may still be growing, but AI stocks may no longer rise as easily as before.
This is actually more important for upcoming earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and others. Previously, the question was "how much is AI business growing?" Going forward, the question should be "after increased AI investment, has profit kept pace?" If tech giants’ capital expenditures continue to soar, but the market’s profit expectations keep rising, then the rally is likely to shift from broad gains to a true earnings selection phase.
So my current judgment on the AI rally is simple: it’s not that AI has no story left, but that the story has been told too fully, and from now on it must be supported by numbers to keep going up.
The biggest signal Hynix gave me this time is not "AI has peaked," but that the most profitable phase of AI may be shifting from talking about expectations to competing on actual delivery. #财报观察员: OKX's masterclass premieres tonight, helping you understand the financial reports of the four major tech giants
Revenue soared 257%, profits soared 557%—then the stock price fell 8% in after-hours trading.
SK Hynix just released a financial report that would have caused its stock price to hit the daily limit in any other industry: revenue of 79.3 trillion won (about $54.5 billion), up 257% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter; Operating profit was 60.5 trillion KRW (about 41.6 billion USD), up 557% year-on-year and 61% quarter-on-quarter; Operating profit margin is 76.3%, with a gross margin as high as 83%.
Cumulative revenue in the first half of the year exceeded 100 trillion KRW, already surpassing the full-year 2025 sales figure.
Then ADR fell 8% in after-hours trading.
Why?
Revenue was about 4.6 trillion KRW below market expectations (84 trillion vs 79.3 trillion KRW), and operating profit was about 3.7 trillion KRW below expectations (64.2 trillion vs 60.5 trillion KRW). It's not that the performance is poor; it's that market expectations have been pushed by AI narratives to the level where "human cognition must be refreshed every quarter."
Behind the performance gap lies a structural factor: the high proportion of HBM has actually become a problem. The market expects traditional DRAM to also benefit from price increases, but about 70% of SK hynix's revenue comes from chips for AI data centers, so it has benefited little from the price hikes of traditional DRAM. This is a company "trapped by its own successful structure."
But the real information is all in the details.
Long-term supply agreements (LTAs) have been signed with about 10 core customers, and the customers' willingness to sign long-term contracts to lock in capacity indicates that demand is more certain about HBM than market traders.
HBM4 began mass production and shipments in the second quarter, with production expanded in the second half. HBM4E samples were delivered in the first half of the year. Technology iteration never stops; the next generation of products is already on the way.
Cash and equivalents reached 88 trillion won (about 60.5 billion USD), an increase of 33.6 trillion won quarter-on-quarter. Borrowings fell to 18.6 trillion KRW, with a net cash position of 69.4 trillion KRW. This is a company with cash flow more abundant than most national central banks.
Since its peak in June this year, SK Hynix's market value has evaporated by over $500 billion, with the largest single-month drop wiping out about 45%. A company with such strong fundamentals saw its stock price drop by nearly half.
My view is:
The phrase "all the good news has been pouring out" is repeatedly replaying in the chip sector. It's not that the fundamentals are flawed; valuations have already moved ahead of the fundamentals. When market expectations are so high that you need to "beat expectations every quarter" to stabilize the stock price, any "just good" financial report will be interpreted as negative. But historical experience shows that when a company's fundamentals continue to strengthen while its stock price keeps falling, usually one of the two is wrong. In the long run, fundamentals are often correct. However, before it is repriced, it may go through a grueling period of "earnings beating expectations and stock prices continuing to fall."
HBM4 mass production in the second half of the year + 10 LTA customers + 88 trillion KRW in cash — SK Hynix's fundamentals have not weakened; what has changed is the market's faith in AI narratives. The true value of this financial report may not lie in today's ups and downs, but in confirming that AI storage demand still exists and is being written into long-term contracts.
$SKHYNIX The target has shifted. The window I locked onto through the scope has now drawn a curtain—the odds of passing the CLARITY Act have been steadily falling on the observer, dropping from 60% half a month ago to less than 33% now. The wind speed has changed, and new obstacles have appeared in the range: Trump's $1.4 billion crypto floating profit and loss has become the most conspicuous human target in the Democratic lawmakers' shooting range.
Snipers never believe in "high probability." I lurked behind the disguise and calculated every set of shooting parameters: Senate Majority Leader Thune's speech was a ribbon on a bellwether, pointing to legislation impossible before the August recess. Bloomberg's ballistic analysis report shows that the DOJ is given sole enforcement authority, which is like a scope forcibly locked onto distant field of view—nearby turbulence (a vague definition of indirect holdings) and distant self-destruct fuses (automatic expiration clause on January 20, 2029) completely disrupt lead calculations.
The XHOOD US stock token is my watchtower. I lay on the damp, cold observation spot, layering the market sentiment through its surface. Its movement is like a scout exposed to open ground: the market index gives it a base cover (so-called "linkage depth"), but the real exposure point is hidden at the one-third probability line in the prediction market. The funds are not defecting, but rebuilding their positions. I heard a breathing sound coming from the sniper team's communication channel: someone wanted to bet on this "one-third" odds. I pressed the call button and only said two words: "Fix." ”
Combat rounds of this caliber are less than .308 caliber. The political wind gauge fluctuates between 3.7 and 4.2 levels, and the ballistic solver recommends the M118LR ammunition, but I don't trust this muzzle velocity—because the target (the bill's passage window) is not a stationary chest ring target, but a moving target slowly crawling by a rope of 1.4 billion interests.
The crosshair line in the scope fluttered slightly with his heartbeat. I observed XHOOD's volatility curve narrowing by 5.2% over the past 72 hours—not the sound of a hunter loading bullets, but the prey adjusting its breath. When you see the temperature contrast fading from the thermal imager, you know the best decision is to retract, chamber, and let muscle memory cool down.
There's no perfect profit-loss ratio—I won't shoot that shot.I made this deal with SK Hynix early, because pre-earnings profits are sometimes more reliable than imagination.
I previously tested long positions near $150, then rebounded above $165 to take profits in batches, without continuing to bet on financial reports. HBM orders, AI capital expenditures, and tight production capacity all support long-term logic, but almost everyone in the market knows these positive factors mean that even a slight shortfall in earnings could trigger sharp volatility.
The company is about to announce its quarterly results, with a focus on HBM gross margin, 2027 orders, and the pace of expansion. Technically, $150 to $153 is support; if it falls below $145, the target is $145. The resistance above $169 to $170 is the resistance; a breakout could retest $195.
The hardest part of doing a hynix contract is that the company's fundamentals may be strong, but ADR premiums and expectations can make prices more crazier than earnings. Would you choose to cash in before the earnings report, or hold onto a position and bet on a gap?
$SKHY #SK海力士 #HBM
This does not constitute investment advice.While the Dow soared, tech stocks were left disappointed, and both gold and crude oil, two veteran safe-haven players, both fell at the same time. The crypto market appears calm, with $BTC remaining calm at 63,853, $ETH up 1.77%, but the spot ETF $IBIT has seen a net outflow of 1.71%—funds are regaining their positions in a bizarre way. Outline - 🔍 1. Value Stocks Frenzy, Tech Stocks Buy - 📉 2. A Strange Day of Safe-Haven Assets Not Hedged - 🌊 3. Undercurrents in Crypto: ETH Leads Lonely, Semiconductor Token Avalanche - ⚖️ 4. Macro Adhesive: Everything Is Waiting for That Decision Today's Snapshot $BTC 63,853, +0.33% $ETH 1,919, +1.77% $QQQ -0.97%, $SPY +0.24% $DXY +0.04%, $GLD -1.40% $IBIT - 1.71% VIX 18.2, -2.57% 1. Value stocks on a frenzy, tech stocks buy 🔍 Down The Dow Jones surged over 500 points in one day, but tech stocks seemed drained. The Dow Jones surged 1.03%, while $QQQ fell 0.97%, with funds shifting sharply from growth stocks to value stocks. Behind this is a repricing of interest rate expectations—the shadow of Fed rate hikes has made highly valued tech sectors weaken first. At the same time, $SPY rose only 0.24%, marking a fever pitch within the S&P. 2. The Strange Situation of Hedging Assets Not HedgedOn the morning of July 29, the market did not continue to fall together, but also did not rebound together. BTC: $63,710.34, 24H +0.15% ETH: $1,909.80, 24H +1.27% SOL: $73.37, 24H -0.69% ETH reclaimed 1,900, BTC held above 63K, only SOL is still falling. The strength ranking changed from yesterday's "BTC most resistant to decline" to today's ETH > BTC > SOL. But this is not a full return of risk appetite. BTC only rose 0.15% in 24 hours, still one step away from 64K; SOL did not keep up with ETH, indicating that funds are more like rotating at low positions and short covering, rather than chasing all high Beta assets again. Today's core judgment: the market has entered a differentiated recovery from a volume-driven pullback, ETH first reclaimed 1,900, but BTC did not break 64K, SOL continued to lag behind, the rebound still lacks confirmation from the whole market. 1) BTC: stopped falling above 63K, 64K is still the first barrier BTC reported $63,710.34, 24H up 0.15%, volume about $24.81B, market cap about $1.278T. 24H range about $62,828-$64,008. BTC once dipped to $62,828 during the session, then pulled back near $63,700, indicating support below 63K. But the price just touched $64,008 and then fell back, 64K is still the most direct short-termWhen you trade until the end, you will find that you only need to do one thing:
Fix a cycle, fix a pattern, fix an entry form,
Repeat the same actions every day, with a stop loss,
In the familiar pattern mode,
Pursue relatively high-probability trading results,
If you can achieve small losses and big gains, you can start making money. #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $BTC When the judge's gavel falls, the smoke on the stage has already cleared—you think freedom has won, but the house has just swapped a hole card.
Minnesota's ban has been suspended. The "five years imprisonment plus a $10,000 fine" that hung over Kalshi and Polymarket just four days ago was like a worn-out card suddenly shuffled back into the deck. Retail investors cheered at the news: Ah, prediction markets have survived in the U.S.! But they are always watching the hand I deliberately want them to see. Where is the real hand? It's in the federal judge's ruling that "state law may conflict with the Commodity Exchange Act." What does that mean? It means the CFTC is about to step in and reshuffle the deck.
A clever sleight of hand: the house first lets the state government show its fangs, then lets the federal court pull out the teeth. Retail investors think justice has arrived, but they don't notice the stage backdrop has changed—from "state gambling ban" to "federal commodity trading jurisdiction." Kalshi and Polymarket breathe a sigh of relief, but don't forget, the CFTC is the top magician who can turn event contracts into a stagnant pool with regulation. For now, they've just put away the guillotine; while everyone's attention is on the "ban lift," the next shuffle has already begun.
The $xAMZN market linkage? Just another layer of smoke in the smoke bomb. The real game is at the regulatory negotiation table. Retail investors stare at the candlestick chart's fluctuations like watching the silk scarf waving in my left hand, while my right hand slips the hole card into my sleeve.
Remember, in illusions, the most dangerous thing is not the hand you can't see, but the card you think you've already seen clearly.#停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落 When I saw this news, I was holding my phone, staring at the altcoin in my wallet that had dropped 90%, ready to hold a respectable "digital funeral" for it.
The news update was clear—SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced that rules targeting the crypto market would be introduced. I almost couldn't hold back my tears at that moment: Dad is here, bringing the imperial sword!
Looking closely, Atkins really understands us 'chives'. He made it clear right from the start: "Most crypto assets themselves are not securities"—listen to that, that's what people say! When his predecessor Gary Gensler was around, it was a case of "anything can be a security," as if they wanted to register NFTs. During those years, my mindset buying coins was like a thief, afraid that one day the SEC would knock on my door accusing me of illegally issuing "braised beef coins."
Now, Atkins not only categorizes crypto assets but also creates a "crypto safe harbor." What does that mean? It's like giving the project team a "newbie protection period"—you play first, no need to kneel and call for your dad to register right away. Even more outrageous, he proposed that startups could raise up to $75 million within 12 months without having to go through the entire registration process.
I knelt down on the spot. 75 million? That's enough for me to pull the air coin project team I bought from the brink of running away three more times.
What moved me most was his core philosophy: "What regulators should do is—draw clear boundaries with clear terms." Instead of the old way of guessing, realizing, and only realizing your mistakes after being punished.
Of course, as a mature 'chives', I still need to stay calm. After all, the SEC's new regulations are still in the proposal stage. But at least, Atkins gave me a glimmer of hope—that someone finally wanted to properly manage this chaotic casino instead of blowing it up outright.
Tonight, I've decided not to liquidate that resized coin for now. Believe it again—what if? What if the rules are implemented, and it really becomes the lucky one in the "safe harbor"? At worst, they could hold an even more grand funeral for it. After all, isn't the life of a chives meant to bet on tomorrow? $FIL $BTC $ETH This short position on HYPE made me a bit of a profit, but I had already started to stop.
The price retraced more than 20% from the $73 high, broke below the trendline, and then took a short position for a while, starting to take profits near $55. The reason is simple: although the trend has weakened, Hyperliquid still has real trading volume, fee income, and token buyback expectations, so the odds of continuing to chase short positions are no longer as comfortable as when it first broke out.
Next is $55, a key level; a loss could test $50; If it regains the 60 to $63 range, bears will need to be cautious about a rebound. Monthly team token unlocks bring supply pressure, but market volatility recovery may also boost platform revenue.
The most interesting thing about HYPE is that even when users are at a loss, the platform may still make money, but the token may not necessarily rise. When you trade HYPE contracts, do you trust price trends more or the real daily income generated by the platform?
#HYPE #Hyperliquid #合约交易
This does not constitute investment advice.$SKHY $SKHYNIX $KORU Hynix's earnings are out, how should we interpret them?
Explosive data: revenue of 79 trillion, profit of 60 trillion, several times year-on-year growth, one quarter earning more than last year's full year. But market expectations were higher, revenue missed by 5 trillion, profit missed by 3.5 trillion, so it's called "below expectations."
Let's look at the specific data: revenue of 79.3 trillion KRW, quarter-on-quarter growth of 51%, year-on-year growth of 256.8%; analyst expectations were 83.85 trillion KRW.
Operating profit of 60.54 trillion KRW, quarter-on-quarter growth of 61%, year-on-year growth of 557.2%.
Stock price collapsed in advance: dropped 14.65% the day before, ADR broke below issue price, retraced 47% from the high, market cap evaporated by 600 billion. Good earnings couldn't stop the selling pressure because expectations were too high, funds exited early. Hynix fell 6% in after-hours trading on US markets.
What’s the debate online? On one side, people say HBM supply is tight, long-term contracts account for 70%, profits are rock solid, the drop is an opportunity; on the other side, they say AI capital expenditure will cool down, Meta is offloading computing power, China's CXMT is coming up to compete, the competitive landscape is changing.
On-chain is very real: leveraged ETFs are rampant, volatility amplified, Korean retail investors forced to deleverage, passive selling triggered a chain reaction crash, this is no longer fundamental pricing but a liquidity crisis.
Under normal market conditions, these earnings would trigger a limit-up, but now the macro narrative overrides everything—AI bubble doubts + competition concerns + expectation exhaustion, three big mountains. The good news is valuations have been cut significantly, the bad news is the trend is not yet stable. At 4 a.m., Bitcoin hovered around the $63,900 mark: a game of patience and discipline
In the early hours of July 29, 2026, Bitcoin was oscillating and recovering near $63,901, having previously hit a low of $62,660. This article combines the latest on-chain data, ETF fund flows, and macro policy dynamics to deeply analyze the current market landscape: whales bucked the trend by accumulating over 270,000 BTC (about $16.7 billion) in the last two weeks of June, while institutional ETFs recorded a record net outflow of $40.6 billion during the same period; The Federal Reserve's July 29 rate decision remains pending, and the CLARITY Act hearing is about to be held. This is not a simple technical fix, but a token exchange between bulls and bears amid historic divergence. The article provides actionable trading strategies and risk control frameworks to help investors see the direction clearly in the midnight silence.
1. Market Sketch: The price language at 4 a.m
At 4 a.m., while most people were still asleep, liquidity in the crypto market had dropped to the lowest point of the day. Bitcoin was repeatedly torn between $63,901 and had previously tested a low of $62,660.1 before beginning a recovery.
From the Bollinger band, prices rebounded based on the lower band's support and are currently holding above the middle Bollinger band at $63,769, with an upward band at $63,986 probing. This is a classic three-stage structure of "decline—stabilization—repair." But the MACD indicator reveals a deeper message: bullish momentum continues to weaken, gains on both fast and slow lines are slowing, and short-term rebound momentum is fading. This means the current repair is not a prelude to a trend reversal, but rather a technical breather after a sharp drop.
Key intervals worth pondering:
The first resistance above is $63,986 (upper Bollinger band). To continue the rebound, a strong breakout and holding is necessary; The core support below is $63,769 (middle Bollinger band). If it breaks below, this round of recovery may stall, and prices may pull back again, possibly retesting the support zone below $62,000.
Liquidity is weak in the late morning hours, and repeated shakeouts are the norm. The biggest taboo at this stage is aggressive chasing — what you see as a "breakout" might just be a fake move in the liquidity vacuum.
2. Macro fog: ETFs are bleeding, whales are buying shares, and AI funds siphoning in the triple divide
To understand the true meaning of the current $63,900 price point, we must jump out of the candlestick and observe the flow of funds on a higher level.
1. Record ETF Outflows: Are Institutions Retreating?
In June 2026, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of about $4.06 billion, marking the largest single-month redemption since the product launched in January 2024. Throughout June, the ETF net sold about 71,600 BTC, with an oversupply of about 77,000 BTC (about $4.4 billion). The Fear and Greed Index once fell to 22, entering the "extreme fear" range.
But here's a key counterintuitive fact: since their launch in 2024, the cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have still been around $55 billion. The June outflows were more like a tough adjustment than a collective institutional exit. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that this outflow pattern has already occurred three times in 2026 (February, April, June), showing cyclical characteristics.
2. Whales Buying Against the Trend: What Is Smart Money Doing?
When the ETF channel suffered massive losses, a more low-key but important signal appeared on-chain: "whales" holding over 1,000 BTC had cumulatively bought over 270,000 Bitcoins in the last two weeks of June, worth about $16.7 billion.
Santiment data shows that addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC collectively increased their holdings by over 120,000 BTC between March and mid-June 2026, surpassing the accumulation surge during the COVID-19 collapse in March 2020 and the bear market in June 2022. Meanwhile, Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest level in about seven years, and long-term holders are accelerating their accumulation.
Bitfinex analysts point out that this divergence pattern of "institutional selling + whale accumulation" has historically appeared multiple times near the bottom of the Bitcoin cycle. On-chain analytics firm Bgeometrics stated that after Bitcoin fell 52% from its all-time high, the pattern of large wallets absorbing supply and weak holders panicking and exiting "historically closely resembles the allocation during later pullbacks."
3. AI Siphon Effect: Where Did the Capital Go?
From a broader perspective, the crypto market is undergoing a "narrative battle." Since April 2026, U.S. gold and Bitcoin ETFs have seen a combined net outflow of about $12 billion, while semiconductor ETFs attracted over $20 billion in net inflows during the same period. The five major U.S. tech giants are expected to spend about $600 billion to $725 billion on AI infrastructure capital expenditures in 2026.
Samir Kerbage, Chief Investment Officer of crypto asset management firm Hashdex, bluntly stated: The weakness in crypto reflects more about investors reallocating funds elsewhere, rather than the problem with the digital asset ecosystem itself.
Michael Saylor defines this as "cyclical rotation," where short-term outflows do not change Bitcoin's long-term value; but the other side argues that since the exit funds flow to AI capital cycles spanning several years, the return time will be significantly extended, making it closer to a structural transfer.
On-chain code: Six indicators tell you exactly where the market is positioned
The current market is in an extremely complex game state. The following six core indicators can help us locate the true temperature amid the noise:
Fear and Greed Index 28 (extreme fear → fear range) — market sentiment remains pessimistic but has rebounded from the most extreme region, a typical "left-sided" characteristic.
RSI around 42.3—neutral to weak, not yet in the oversold zone, indicating short-term downside but also indicating that bearish forces are not overwhelming.
The MVRV ratio is 0.85—entering a historically undervalued range, which historically often corresponds to a mid-term bottom area. #韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops A-shares on its first day. #财报观察员: OKX Masterclass Premieres Tonight, Helping You Understand the Four Tech Giants' Financial Reports. #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% $BTC $ETH $AEON in a single day The market is not one-sided; today's focus is on who shows weakness first
Look at the numbers
$BTC 63,544 -0.47% $ETH 1,905 +0.70%
$QQQ -0.97% $SPY +0.24% $IBIT -1.71%
$DXY -0.12% $GLD -1.40%
and discuss the situation
Crude oil and Hormuz are still stirring up inflation expectations, US Treasuries and Fed expectations continue to weigh on valuations, and the exchange rate line is restless—$DXY is not a backdrop, but a switch that can flip the market at any time.
Money is retreating into defense, $QQQ isn't that strong, $IBIT weaker than $BTC, and if ETFs weaken, it means the spot side isn't as tough as imagined.
$ETH is actually more resilient than $BTC, and risk appetite has only localized; $DXY Once this breath is relaxed, risk assets can barely catch their breath; $GLD Pullback: Risk aversion is cooling down, but that doesn't mean everything has been withdrawn.
$BTC Tough but unbroken, $ETH Carrying the flag and rotating the rotation; the funds inside the market haven't left, just changed the battlefield.
$QQQ Defensive attitude, with no intention of leading charges.
$IBIT Declines are larger than spot prices, with institutions signaling weakness in ETFs first.
$DXY Not a tightening spell, but not loose enough to let the bulls run wild.
$GLD The cooling indicates panic hasn't escalated, but the money used for safe havens hasn't all flowed back yet
A barrage of analysis is fierce as a tiger; whether the rise or fall depends on Trump. Whoever shows weakness first will set the direction ahead. Let's wait and see.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议From 2350 to 1050, $SNDK halved and halved again—do you dare to buy the dip? Let's look at the surface first: an avalanche-like drop, panic to the extreme. From the all-time high of 2350+ in June to around 1150 today, more than two months have been halved. The daily chart has already broken below all moving averages, MACD bears are widening, RSI has dropped to the 30-40 oversold zone, and volume has surged, confirming selling pressure. The weekly chart has broken through continuously, with monthly retracements exceeding 40%. Either oversold and violently rebounding, or continuing to dip and seek bottoms. This is the most disrupted market so far this year: stock prices have dropped like dogs, but earnings have been booming. First thing: AI storage demand hasn't collapsed, but what has fallen is "faith." Why the drop? Three words: profit-taking. Concerns over AI memory demand, competition worries over China's CXMT IPO, global chip stocks collectively selling, and the crash in South Korean and Japanese storage stocks spreading to the US market. But these are all "sentiments," not "facts." What are the facts? Q3 revenue was $5.95 billion, doubling quarter-on-quarter, data center revenue surged 200%+ gross margin soared above 70%, and free cash flow exploded. Second event: the July 29 FOMC could be the trigger. Today, the Fed is at its meeting, and the market is betting on rate cut expectations. Today's CPI has already softened; if the Fed turns dovish, growth stocks will take off immediately. SNDK, the AI storage leader, has resilience far exceeding the broader market. The August 5 earnings report leaves little time for the bears. If the Fed leans dovish + earnings reiterate AI spending, SNDK can bounce from 1150 back to 1600+ in just two weeks. Third matterI was woken up by an oil price alert before dawn; Brent crude fell from triple digits to 91, WTI broke 84, the ceasefire expectation rose to 75%, and BTC followed, standing back above 65K... The market seems relieved, but a few altcoins in my watchlist barely moved, which makes me a bit uneasy.
Are you happy because oil prices dropped, or because BTC rose?
If your answer is the latter, your positions might already be conflicted. The ceasefire expectation removes the geopolitical premium from the energy market, but the premium taken away doesn’t automatically turn into liquidity for the crypto market. Macro funds anxious about inflation due to oil prices breaking triple digits will likely not rush into BTC upon seeing oil prices fall; their first reaction is probably to recalculate the FOMC’s rate cut pace. Historical experience tells me they first watch how the FOMC proceeds, then decide asset allocation—BTC is the third stop in this chain, not the first.
Oil price drops ease inflation pressure, giving the FOMC more room to "wait and see." But "wait and see" is never a positive for risk assets; it’s neutral. Not tightening doesn’t mean easing—the 2025 market has already taught everyone this lesson painfully.
There’s also an easily overlooked dark line. If oil prices continue below 90, the market will sooner or later ask: is global demand weaker than expected? The oil price drop caused by a ceasefire and that caused by a recession look identical on the K-line chart. The former is positive, the latter a warning. Currently, the market is pricing as if it’s the former, but if next week’s PMI or employment data show weakness, this logic will flip overnight.
BTC’s current 65K price is already paying in advance for three things:
- The ceasefire being implemented
- The FOMC’s dovish tone
- Earnings reports not blowing up
And the prediction market gives the ceasefire a 75% probability—this number itself says the market is already celebrating early. 75% and 65K, these two numbers are doing the same thing: toasting in advance for an unsigned agreement and an unreleased decision.
The problem is, this week’s FOMC, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings, and FTX’s $900 million compensation won’t care whether you celebrate or not. They will play their cards on their own schedule. If any one of these three things doesn’t line up, the "advance premium" priced into 65K will turn into "correction space."
Stop and think clearly: are you long BTC, or are you long the ceasefire? These are not the same. At least one will be dragged back for reassessment by some variable this week.
Disclaimer: Personal perspective, not an investment instruction.
$BTC $ETH $BNB #MacroNarrative #RiskAppetite #CryptoSentiment$HYPE The current 2027 P/E ratio remains in the 15-18 times range, with valuation pricing still limited to traditional crypto protocols and failing to reflect valuation benchmarks with traditional financial exchanges.
Compared to slower-growing traditional brokers and exchanges such as Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and CME, this price-to-earnings ratio is significantly discounted. The current market pricing is still anchored to the current business scale, completely excluding option premiums from future US stocks, RWA, forecasting markets, and compliance license expansion.
In the upward scenario, if the valuation system initiates a restructuring of traditional exchange benchmarks, bulls will need to see valuation multiples break above the 18x P/E suppression ceiling. This process must be accompanied by substantial progress in expanding into equity or RWA sectors. If trading volume growth continues to outpace traditional platforms, the price structure will confirm it will break out of range-bound volatility and initiate trend-driven revaluation.
In a downward scenario, if overall liquidity in the crypto market tightens, or if subsequent US stocks and RWA businesses encounter regulatory compliance obstacles, the discount status may be further consolidated. When the market refuses to give a growth premium, valuation centers will test and come under pressure, and the support strength corresponding to the 15x P/E will be directly tested.
The key to judging valuation logic failure is that the valuation multiple has fallen below the 15-times P/E baseline and cannot be quickly recovered. If business expansion is fully blocked and the growth rate falls back to the same level as traditional exchanges, the discount logic will no longer hold, and the price structure will enter a bottoming phase again.
Over the next 7 days, focus on shifts in market liquidity and policy moves along the compliance path, which will directly determine whether the market begins to recalibrate $HYPE's valuation premium.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heardThe U.S. Senate's pause in advancing the CLARITY Act has led to uncertainty over regulatory implementation in the crypto market, causing simultaneous plunges in BTC and ETH and short-term capital withdrawals. The real pain point in the market is that the indefinite extension of rules hinders the clear allocation of institutional funds. This repeated "trading disappointment" will continue to intensify short-term volatility and wash out vulnerable chips; However, once regulatory rules are finally implemented, the currently misplaced chips may turn into huge investment opportunities. $BTC $ETH $SNDK SKHYNIX
Still thinking about bottom-fishing Hynix is truly a genius
If you're long, cut 🥩 your losses quickly
As long as the green hills remain, there is no fear of running out of firewood
I was just a little bit away from ruining 😨 it
I used to think there might be a chance for a fix
Now, it's no longer possible
Save one if possible
Short what you can
It's bottomless
📉1030→1000→980→950
Hynix Q2
Operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW
Market expectation is 64.22 trillion KRW
Fell below 1000💲 before the market opened
$SNDK $MU
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day $CORE CoreDAO: Received about 90% of Bitcoin's hash rate. What signal does the latest official statement send?
CoreDAO's latest official statement states:
"Core receives about 90% of Bitcoin's hash rate. Bitcoin miners align with Core. ”
Although this statement is very brief, the message behind it is worth noting.
First, it should be clarified that the phrase "receiving about 90% of Bitcoin's hash rate" here does not mean CoreDAO controls 90% of Bitcoin's hash power, nor does it mean the Bitcoin network migrated to Core. It expresses that in Core's SatoshiPlus consensus mechanism, about 90% of Bitcoin's total network hash power has already participated in or can participate in security support and delegation for the Core network. This mechanism allows Bitcoin miners to participate in Core network security construction through miner delegations and other means, without changing their BTC mining methods, thereby earning additional incentives.
What does this mean?
First, CoreDAO is continuously strengthening its connection with Bitcoin miners. For miners, they remain focused on Bitcoin mining, without bearing additional hash costs, yet can participate in the Core ecosystem and gain new sources of income. Therefore, this model naturally has a low entry barrier, making Core one of the few public blockchains in the BTCFi sector that is truly deeply tied to Bitcoin miners.
Second, the official emphasis on "Bitcoin miners and Core aligned" sends a signal not only technically but also an ecosystem-level statement. As competition for BTCFi intensifies, various public chains are vying for Bitcoin liquidity, and CoreDAO continues to highlight its core strength—maintaining a high degree of alignment with Bitcoin's underlying security model. This has always been a key positioning that sets CoreDAO apart from other BTCFi projects.
From an industry perspective, the Bitcoin network has the world's largest decentralized computing power, and its ability to continuously attract miners to participate and establish long-term benefit ties is of great significance to any BTCFi infrastructure. If on-chain applications, BTC staking scale, and the number of ecosystem developers can grow simultaneously in the future, this mining resource advantage is expected to further transform into ecosystem competitiveness.
Of course, it's also important to remain objective. High computing power participation does not necessarily mean the ecosystem will succeed. Ultimately, the market will continue to focus on several key metrics, including on-chain activity, TVL (Total Value Locked), BTC staking scale, number of developers, and real user growth. Only by continuously improving these metrics can miner advantages truly translate into network value.
Overall, this tweet seems more like CoreDAO's latest positioning of the market: it hopes to continue strengthening the core narrative of "Bitcoin hash power + BTCFi," proving to the outside world that it still enjoys broad support from the Bitcoin miner community. In future competition in the BTCFi sector, whether this advantage can be further realized for ecosystem growth and market performance remains to be seen.For brothers trading US stocks in the short term, my advice is straightforward: before the Federal Reserve interest rate decision is announced at 2 AM on the 30th, try not to open new positions casually, especially in the Nasdaq and high-valuation tech stocks. This kind of timing is prone to sharp spikes up and down; even if you guess the direction correctly, you might get stopped out first. Instead of betting on big or small in advance, it's better to stay out and wait for the market to show its stance first.
Currently, the interest rate range is 3.50%—3.75%. The mainstream market still bets on no change, but there remains a possibility of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. A Reuters survey of 104 economists all predicted no change this time.
Personally, I also lean towards no rate hike, but what really determines the market is not necessarily the result itself, but the subsequent statement and press conference. As long as inflation is still emphasized or there is a hint that a hike in September is possible, the market could still rally first and then drop.
Compared to the crypto space this time, I think the Nasdaq will be hit more directly. Tech stock valuations are very sensitive to interest rates and US Treasury yields, and with tech giants’ earnings reports coming out these days, the market is effectively trading both rates and earnings simultaneously, leaving very little margin for error.
Of course, the crypto market will follow, but the transmission is more indirect: the US dollar and US Treasuries move first, then the Nasdaq signals, BTC follows risk appetite, and finally altcoins amplify volatility through leverage and liquidations.
So my understanding is: the Nasdaq sets the direction, BTC amplifies sentiment, and altcoins amplify the downside. At times like this, staying out is not missing an opportunity but keeping control in your own hands. Wait for the results, then see how the dollar, Treasuries, and Nasdaq move—it’s often more stable than betting in advance. $BTC $ETH $SNDK This trader has already lost 😱 a lot on a long DOGE position, entering at $0.15, now at $0.07, with a book loss of $76,000 💸
DOGE, this dog coin, saw many whales buying at around $0.4 in the previous rally, and it is still stuck at the peak. The most outrageous thing is that some KOLs are still mindlessly shouting "hold long-term," as if time can erase all losses. But in reality, there has been no substantial change in fundamentals, and the chip structure has seriously deteriorated.
My judgment is clear: DOGE will never return to that $0.7 price range 🚫. This is not a casual bearish statement, but a conclusion based on market liquidity and analysis of whale holding costs. The current price of $0.07 seems low, but the layers of trapped pressure above are extremely heavy. Each rebound is a selling opportunity, not a signal for reversal.
For those still hoping DOGE can surge back to its highs, it is recommended to calmly examine on-chain data and holdings. This narrative-driven established meme coin will enter a long bearish decline channel once it loses sustained buying support. Don't listen to KOLs' empty promises; their words have nothing to do with your wallet.#Korean stocks plunge 8%, Changxin tops A-shares on first day Changxin's first day of listing closed up 465%, with a market value of 3.28 trillion topping the A-shares, and the total turnover exceeded 140 billion yuan. The shockwave spread to the US stock market the same day, with SanDisk down 11% and Micron under pressure. On July 28, the KOSPI's decline widened to 8%, SK Hynix fell 11%, and Samsung Electronics dropped more than 9%.
The storage industry experienced drastic changes at both ends within 48 hours. In China, Changxin's closing price on the first day was 5.66 times the issue price, almost coinciding with the pre-listing on-chain pre-market contract pricing of about 5.4 times. In South Korea, after a buyer-side circuit breaker the previous week, the ruling party has issued warnings about leveraged ETFs, and Hynix ADR fell below the issue price to a new low since listing. US storage stocks fell first, Korean stocks expanded the next day, and Changxin's entry is triggering a global chain re-pricing of storage assets. The valuation premium of the "Korean dual giants narrative" has for the first time found a clear counterpart.
Samsung and Hynix's earnings reports this week and Changxin's performance the next day are the next two observation points in this reshuffle.
For BTC and ETH, changes in the storage industry landscape affect through two channels: first, the reconstruction of the global tech stock valuation system indirectly influences the risk appetite of the crypto market; second, storage chips as key components of AI infrastructure affect the cost structure of the AI narrative through price changes, which in turn transmits to AI-related crypto assets. Currently, BTC and ETH are overall in a range-bound state, and at the macro level, attention still needs to be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision this week and the subsequent impact of tech giants' earnings reports.
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