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After showering and lying in bed at night, I watched the market downward and saw BTC fall from 66,900 to 63,700 this round, then slowly recover to around 64,500. I feel the current market state is quite interesting.
Those who have been waiting for a correction for days ago may have really found their chance.
Bottom-fishing funds entering near 63,666 have indeed secured a good position. BTC is currently fluctuating around 64,500. If you follow a short-term perspective, some may consider placing a 3x leveraged limit long position, with a stop-loss at 63,500 and targets above 65,800 and 66,300.
However, from my own perspective at this level, I wouldn't blindly chase long positions just because it dropped; I still need to consider several signals.
First, the 63,666 area is quite critical because it rebounded after testing twice on July 20 and July 24, indicating some short-term capital support here.
Second, the current funding rate is only about 0.004%, with no signs of overheating in the long market. At the same time, OI saw a net inflow of about $110 million today, and ETFs have continuously attracted funds for seven consecutive days, totaling nearly $1 billion. These figures show that the market is not entirely without capital attention.
Of course, if you're not used to leverage, I think placing spot in batches is much more comfortable. The biggest risk in a contract is not directional judgment, but leverage turning normal volatility into forced exit.
Now let's look at the surrounding environment.
Last night, U.S. tech stocks came under pressure, with the Nasdaq falling 0.64%; A-shares also performed weakly, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.61%, and the Hong Kong tech sector also showing weakness, with overall market risk appetite clearly declining.
Additionally, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude toward around $100, raising the market's probability of a rate hike in September to 61%. According to traditional logic, these factors would put pressure on risk assets.
Interestingly, BTC did not continue to weaken sharply, instead holding steady near 64,500.
My own feeling is that the market is now undergoing a wave of emotional cleansing. Funds that chased previous gains were shaken out, and those hoping to buy at low prices began to re-observe, and the market actually entered a more balanced state.
Technically, the 66,924 on July 21 and 66,711 on July 22 have connected, forming a short-term downward resistance line. Although the slope is not very large, it does limit the rebound potential.
The good news is that the support at 63,666 has already been tested twice.
Currently, BTC is trading sideways around 64,500, with open interest (OI) turning positive for three consecutive days and funding rates dropping from 0.006% to 0.004%. My understanding is that some of the leveraged sentiment in the market has already been released, unlike the crowded phase of chasing rallies at high levels.
If it rebounds to around 66,300, I personally prefer to observe first and even reduce positions in batches, rather than blindly hoping for further gains. Although the MACD green bars are shortening, they have not yet formed a clear golden cross, so there is no need to aggressively advance too early.
The flow of funds is also worth attention.
BTC saw a net OI inflow of about $114 million today, marking three consecutive days of positive gains; ETH also saw a net inflow of about $71 million. Both sides have capital participating, but BTC is relatively more stable.
In terms of fees, BTC is currently moderately bullish, with no obvious overheating; ETH has even turned negative, indicating that bears are paying the cost of funding to the bulls.
Now let's look at ETH.
ETH fell from $1,959 to $1,846, then rebounded to around $1,881, showing greater volatility and greater resilience than BTC.
Notably, the ETH funding rate has become **-0.0019%**, meaning short sellers must pay long positions funding every 8 hours. Historically, such situations sometimes serve as rebound signals.
But I think ETH's current problems are also obvious, with a cumulative pullback of about 5% this week, and market confidence has not fully recovered. So if I were to do contracts, I personally would still prioritize BTC, which is a relatively stable product.
If I want to bet on an ETH rebound, I tend to favor a light position near $1,870, with a focus on the risk level below $1,840.
Overall, I think the market is not simply bullish or bearish but waiting for new catalysts. There is capital holding support at the bottom, but the pressure above is also real. For me, the most important thing right now is to control my position size. Don't let a slight rebound make you leverage too much.
#OKX星球话题来啦
$BTC $ETH $KAITO is printing strong momentum with solid buy pressure behind it. As long as volume stays healthy, this rally has room to run.
Trade Setup:
Entry point : Wait for breakout confirmation
Target: +25%
Stop Loss : Below support zone
NFA. Size responsibly and manage risk.
#EarningsRealityCheck
#CLARITYActStalled
#DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit Historically, the best return for $QQQ in July each year was 12.55% in 2020, and the worst rate was -1.68% in 2024.
So far, QQQ's return rate in July this year is around -7%, marking the worst return in history.
In the past 15 years, only one year was negative; the other years had decent returns.
I still have a feeling that next week will be a pretty intense one.
The data will all experience significant corrections......
$QQQ If it drops a bit further, it will enter my batting and set throwing space.📊 $LAB Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $3,110.23
· 4 hours: $24,200
· 12 hours: $103,400
· 24 hours: $142,100
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $83.70 $3,026.53 2.7%
4h $16,700 $7,408.19 69.3%
12h $86,300 $17,000 83.5%
24h $118,500 $23,600 83.4%
Duokong interpretation
One-hour short liquidations dominate (97.3%), but the scale is very small; From 4 hours onward, long positions are liquidated, suddenly crushing short positions (69.3%~83.5%), with a sharp reversal within 1-4 hours, turning into a sustained one-sided decline; The 12-hour and 24-hour bullish positions remained stable at 83%, with the bullish trend continuing into the later stages. Ultimate winner: Bears—The price shows a continuous one-sided downward trend, while the bulls have cleared out consecutive stop-losses.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 2.19% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 17.0% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 72.8% of 24 hours
Liquidations are concentrated in the 12-hour cycle (over 70%), indicating that the main downward wave has exploded within 12 hours; The 24-hour total is 1.37 times that of the 12-hour period, with an increase in the last 12 hours but a weaker intensity. Currently, the market is at the end of a bear-led sustained decline, with the bullish forces basically cleared out. In the short term, we need to wait for signals of shrinking volume.
A one-sentence explanation
$LAB 24-hour long liquidations at $118,500, accounting for 83.4% of the total; 12-hour concentrated breakout mainly triggered a downward wave, with bears winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress Quant has become a systemic variable in China's socio-economic system. In the first quarter of 2026, quant accounted for over 35% of the average daily turnover in A-shares, with daily trading volumes often reaching hundreds of billions to over a trillion yuan. Quant is now the core force directly involved in price discovery, liquidity, and volatility structures. Any state apparatus, once it realizes that a significant portion of market pricing power is in the hands of algorithms and computing power, will instinctively tighten for control.
Fang Xinghai's investigation is just one of the triggers; he represents the previous open-minded approach of liberalizing quantitative trading, introducing short selling, and market-oriented tools. As soon as he fell, the space that had been tacitly allowed instantly narrowed. The essence of regulation is to re-imprison quantitative metrics in a controllable cage.
JPMorgan's move is focused on options-style hedging. Earlier this year, they formed a dedicated China quantitative trading and research team, aiming to accelerate electronic trading and compete with non-bank giants like Citadel and Jane Street. Now, people are concentrated in Singapore, retaining access capabilities, but core models and talent are placed where rules are clear, political friction is low, and data and infrastructure are more user-friendly. Singapore has already become their clear Asia-Pacific Center of Quantitative Excellence. Stripping unpredictable policy risks off the balance sheet. Truly high-end institutional decisions have never been about risk-adjusted expected returns—whether it's still worth placing core assets here
China is actively abandoning path dependence on efficient markets. Mature markets accept quant as an efficiency engine, but the cost is that retail investors are systematically at a disadvantage in information and speed. China has repeatedly chosen another path: using administrative means to suppress unfair advantages, in exchange for stable retail sentiment and controllable narrative.
As a result, A-shares have long remained in a retail-dominated model characterized by "high turnover, high volatility, and low pricing efficiency." With such a high proportion of quantitative assets, continuing to wear the tightening spell is essentially telling global capital that the market structure here prioritizes political and social goals, rather than capital allocation efficiency.
Talent outflow, model relocation, and the shift of core R&D focus southward are natural outcomes of this choice. Singapore and Hong Kong are riding the wave of this spillover effect
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? Looking at the overall pace of U.S. stocks throughout 2026, no week's information density, market weight, or pricing influence can rival the just-started final trading week of July. This is truly the most prestigious Super Week of the year. Four major macro data points—the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision, the preliminary US Q2 GDP, core PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index—were all released together, combined with the four trillion-dollar AI tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon releasing their earnings intensively. Macro policies, inflation fundamentals, economic growth, and AI industry profitability logic will all complete centralized pricing within a week. The more than half year of AI market debate, expectations of high interest rates to persist, and the valuation battles among U.S. growth stocks have all reached their final showdowns. 1. Market Review This Week: AI Valuation Logic Completely Changed, Market Enters a New Pricing Phase The recently concluded trading week saw a slight index pullback in U.S. stocks and deep divergence among tech stocks. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped sharply by 2.1%, with growth stocks showing clear signs of pressure. The core trigger for this round of adjustment is no longer simply disappointing performance, but a fundamental shift in market pricing logic. Previously, the market blindly embraced the AI track, where as long as companies increased their investment in AI computing power and laid out AI infrastructure, they could gain a valuation premium. However, after the latest financial reports from Google and Tesla dropped sharply, the entire market completely reversed its thinking: high growth in AI has become a market consensus, and the only real concern for capital right now is sky-high pricesThe banking industry is the core force in lobbying against the CLARITY Act. On the surface, it claims to protect consumers, but at its core, it's about users transferring their deposits out of banks for higher returns. The bank's profit model is to absorb low-interest or even interest-free deposits to lend and profit. In the past, users had no better financial options and only wanted to keep their funds within the system. Once the crypto sector offers higher returns, this profit foundation will be shaken, and the advantage banks rely on policy barriers to hold will be broken.
Bill progress stalled: Some Republican lawmakers believe the text needs further revisions before supporting it, while Democratic lawmakers who originally favored crypto opposed it because it does not restrict the Trump family's crypto-related revenues. The demands of both sides are completely at odds, resulting in regulatory rules remaining blank for a long time.
Without clear regulation, emerging crypto companies find it difficult to enter compliantly, and there is a lack of reasonable sources for public funds. What the banking industry truly protects is not the interests of depositors, but the current vacuum in this regulatory vacuum. Their fear that the crypto industry will break the existing pattern precisely shows that the traditional financial system has long used barriers to trap ordinary savers' wealth choices. #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Favorable Moments or Shortcoming? While slacking off in the afternoon, I found SHIB's performance today quite impressive, rising 9.49% in one day. The latest price is $0.000005210. If you count from around 0.00000423, this rebound is already close to 20%.
However, I didn't chase it immediately. Instead, I checked the on-chain data and felt there were several noteworthy changes behind this rally.
First, the number of tokens on exchanges continues to decrease.
In the past 24 hours, over 11.3 billion SHIB flowed out of exchanges, with an overall net flow of about -145 billion SHIB, indicating a clear net outflow on-chain. Meanwhile, exchange reserves have dropped to 86.1 trillion, getting closer and closer to the psychological threshold often mentioned by the market.
My understanding is that the reduction in tradable and sellable tokens on exchanges will indeed provide some short-term support for supply, but tightening supply is only one factor affecting prices; it also depends on whether capital inflows continue to be made.
Another change is that the destruction speed is also being increased.
In the past 24 hours, the SHIB burn rate surged by 350%; In the past 7 days, a total of 44.23 million SHIB tokens were burned, a 32.63% increase compared to the previous week. These figures indicate that the community is still advancing the burn mechanism, which will help market sentiment.
There are also new catalysts on the news side.
With ongoing legislative advances related to Japanese crypto ETFs, SHIB has been included in Japan's JVCEA green list, which to some extent enhances its compliance market narrative. This is a positive signal for funds long-focused on the Japanese market.
However, I think we shouldn't just look at the positive news now.
From a technical perspective, SHIB is still trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend has not truly reversed. Additionally, on-chain data shows that about 707 wallets control 94% of the supply, with whale holdings remaining highly concentrated.
Another point that's easy to overlook: although the amount of burned has increased significantly recently, compared to the circulating supply of about 589 trillion coins, the scale of this burn is still relatively limited. In the short term, it tends to improve market sentiment rather than completely change supply-demand relationships.
Next, I will focus on resistance in the 0.00000520–0.00000530 USD range.
If trading volume can effectively amplify and break through, the upper side can continue to watch the 0.000000550—0.00000600 USD area; If the rally is blocked, attention should still be paid to whether the 0.00000418–0.00000420 USD range can form the first support.
Overall, I prefer to see this rally as a technical recovery driven by tighter supply, increased burning, and sector synergy. Before a true trend reversal is achieved, I think more trading volume and sustained capital inflows are needed to confirm, so I won't change my trading rhythm just because of a single day's rise.
The above is just my personal observation based on market data and public data, and does not constitute any investment advice. When trading, you should manage your positions according to your own risk tolerance.
$BTC $ETH $SHIB
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard My best friend said her boyfriend works at a big tech company and lost a house in cryptocurrency trading
My first reaction after hearing this was not sympathy
It opens the list of decliners
I want to find out who is bleeding today
And what happened?
The market is not crashing
BTC 64513
In fact, the 24-hour period has increased
0.71%.
ETH is a bit brighter
By around 1885,
Up about 1.5%.
SOL 74. 95
also about 1.4%.
So this is not a "full sell-off day"
It is the day of structural differentiation
Keep up with the narrative of easing and funding
First, look up
Can't keep up
Continuing to fall gloomily adds to the frustration
On Friday, the ETF still recorded a net outflow of about $225 million
The ledger is rather cold
But the spot will be warmer on weekends
This kind of misalignment is the easiest to deceive
You might think the reversal is confirmed
Actually, it's just a short squeeze out a bit
The bulls also didn't dare to fully leverage their position
The funding rate is almost zero
It was more like no one wanted to stay overnight and gamble on the direction
Names on the decline list
Most of the time, it's the ebb of narrative and the drain of fluidity
It's not that big shots are being smashed through
My best friend's line, 'Losing a whole house,'
This kind of structure feels especially authentic
When making money, I feel like I understand rotation
Only when you lose money do you realize it
What I bought myself is elastic
Not a Beta
So my judgment is
Today, don't use 'declining trend sentiment' to define the entire market
First, distinguish whether it's an index issue or a currency issue
The index is still hovering around 64,000
Individual currency killing is about crowded transactions
I only consider swapping weak ones for cleaner spot stock
Don't use high leverage to bet on V-reversals in a differentiated market
Next, let's take a quick look at the latest hot topics and chat casually:
#韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
News of the storage duo securing major AI orders is still circulating, with risk appetite heating up in equity narratives first, then slowly seeping into crypto risk assets. The small rise in Bitcoin is more like sentiment spillover, not chip orders directly converting into buying. I will treat this as background note on risk appetite, not using a coin to map every supply chain news.
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives
The open source proposal sounds passionate, and the AI narrative has already been priced up several times on the market. In the short term, the more sensitive issue is whether computing power capital expenditures can be realized. On the crypto side, AI tag coins are highly flexible and have thin logic, making them suitable as emotional thermometers, but not as main holdings. I'd rather see if there is real demand for hash rate and stablecoin payments, rather than chasing after another wave of slogans.
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元
A monthly transaction volume of 470 billion sounds alarming, indicating that tokenized asset trading layers are actually being used—not just roadshow PPTs. A surge in volume doesn't mean your wallet's miscellaneous coins will rise accordingly; structured products rely on rates and basis differences. I will use RWA as my main mid-term tracker, while in the short term, I will prioritize the Bitcoin position and leveraged crowding.
$BTC $ETH #跌幅解读 #结构分化My dad asked me what DeFi is, and I said, don't worry about it, I'll help you buy it
My dad came to ask again tonight
I just looked at the board and could only give a dry laugh
Traditional markets are closed on Sundays
But Da Bing was bouncing around on his own
I quickly glanced at the message
The easing winds from the US and Iran have risen again
The previous two crude oils clearly fell back
Negotiations for the opening of the strait have also made progress
Then guess what
BTC 64513
In 24 hours, it rose by 0.71%.
The missile narrative is a bit looser
Oil prices fell first
The currency is first green
US stocks will have to wait until Monday to open and verify their results
This collaboration is a bit twisted
In the past, whenever I heard about tensions in the Middle East,
Everyone was just waiting to smash the price and put on a show
Now, pricing is more like the Xiansong product channel
Risk assets will find a way out over the weekend
On Friday, the ETF still saw a net outflow of about $225 million
The cumulative net inflow was about 81.2 billion yuan
Institutional ledgers are not so romantic
But the spot just doesn't go along with the panic script
The open interest in BTC contracts on OKX is about 31,700 units
This amounts to around 2 billion US dollars
The funding rate is close to zero
The weekend volume is also not exaggerated
It looks more like a sideways trading loss
It's not a trend ignite
So my judgment is
Before Monday's open, don't formulate 'oil drop = US stocks must rally = crypto must surge.'
Easing only reduces tail risk premiums
Whether it's real or not depends on whether US stock futures and crude oil are confirmed together
I'd rather see the reaction with the in-stock stock
Don't use weekend sentiment to leverage it
Looking through today's plate, there are a few interesting points:
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
Earnings season is still reflecting on the two reports from Google and TeslaThe stock price has dropped from $200 to $110, completely shattering the logic of "scarcity." The first batch of 20% employee stock ownership unlocked at the end of July is just the beginning. By August 6, about 910 million shares are expected to be tradable, while the previously tradable shares accounted for only about 4% of total share capital—the supply is about to double or even more.
For a large number of employees with very low exercise costs, the unrealized profit on paper is still substantial even at $110. Mortgages, education, asset allocation—monetization is a rigid demand. Not to mention, short positions now account for about 30% of the circulating shares, so short selling funds are positioning in advance, waiting to receive these "blood-soaked chips."
But risk often breeds opportunity. If the stock price accelerates its decline after the early August earnings report, or if a sharp drop leads to a clear volume reduction and bottoming pattern, it is highly likely that panic trading and unlocking selling pressure are being concentrated and released. At that time, low-price chips may appear. I will wait for that moment. ⚠️During the 2024-2025 rally, the main rally for altcoins generally didn't last more than three months, followed by a general pullback of over 80%. During this short window, only a few people took profits in time, while most were trapped. Essentially, they treated the hype story as a long-term value belief.
The lifespan of counterfeit markets is extremely short, caused by multiple factors combined:
First, altcoin buying funds are limited to the existing market within the circle, with no external incremental funds entering the market; Second, it represents the end of market rotation, with most funds already diverted to mainstream coins; Combined with project token unlocks and project team dumping, selling pressure is continuous; This round of ETFs also diverted mainstream coin funds, and the 'dog' sector has taken up liquidity from the market stock.
Looking ahead, I am more optimistic about the DeFi sector, whose market cycle will also last about three months. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard 🚀 RWA perpetual monthly trading volume reached 470 billion, soaring 450% in half a year!
This is not the frenzy at the end of a bull market, but a signal of a new track starting.
Tokenized stocks, commodities, and even SpaceX are being "perpetually" traded on-chain.
In June, just three major platforms including OKX accounted for over 80% of the share, with SpaceX alone reaching 66 billion in a single month.
🧠 My three observations:
❶ It's not speculative shell swapping, but capital searching for "on-chain Alpha"
The low volatility of traditional assets combined with the high leverage of perpetual contracts naturally suits market makers and event-driven traders. 66 billion is not a volume retail investors can generate; institutions are testing the waters.
❷ Tokenized stocks surged 7 times, who’s next?
I believe it’s government bond yield rights—on-chain interest-bearing assets + RWA compliance represent a trillion-level blue ocean. Pre-IPO liquidity is poor, foreign exchange regulatory barriers are high, so government bonds are most likely to explode first.
❸ Haven't traded yet? What are you waiting for?
Waiting for liquidity? Waiting for regulation? Waiting for a friendlier UI?
— These are all rapidly improving, and early adopters are already capturing the premium.
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 存储股的高景气与高波动：美光、闪迪、SK海力士谁更值得关注？
AI 算力扩张正在改变存储行业的竞争格局。过去，投资者把内存和闪存视为周期性较强的基础元件，价格上涨往往意味着供需失衡，价格下跌则意味着库存积压。进入 AI 时代后，HBM、高容量服务器 DRAM 和企业级 SSD 开始成为数据中心的核心设备，存储厂商也因此获得了新的增长空间。
但存储股近期的走势提醒投资者，行业基本面向好，并不代表股价可以持续上涨。7 月 24 日，美光单日下跌约 7%，闪迪下跌约 11%，SK 海力士韩国本土股票下跌约 8%。此前三家公司都经历了大幅上涨，近期回调更像是获利回吐和估值重估，而不是需求突然消失。
AI 仍在扩大存储需求
AI 服务器需要大量 HBM 来提高 GPU 的数据传输效率，也需要 DRAM 保存运行中的数据。随着模型规模扩大，数据中心还要部署更多 SSD，用于保存训练数据、模型文件、缓存和推理结果。
市场研究机构 Gartner 预计，2026 年 DRAM 价格可能上涨 125%，NAND Flash 价格可能上涨 234%，存储价格压力或许延续到 2027 年以后。Gartner 行业预测
TrendForce 对 2026 年第二季度的判断也偏强，预计传统 DRAM 合约价格环比上涨 58%至63%，NAND Flash 价格上涨 70%至75%。存储厂商把更多产能转向 HBM、服务器内存和企业级 SSD，普通 PC 和手机使用的存储产品因此面临供给收缩。TrendForce 价格预测$MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK
这组数据说明行业仍处于强周期，但也带来一个问题：高价格能持续多久？
美光：产品最完整，预期也最高
美光同时经营 DRAM、HBM、NAND 和企业级 SSD。它可以从 AI 服务器内存需求中获益，也能从数据中心扩大存储容量中获得收入。
美光 2026 财年第三季度收入达到 414.6 亿美元，创下公司纪录。公司还给出了更强的第四季度展望，并表示 HBM4 已经进入高量出货阶段，HBM4E 正在开发，预计 2027 年实现量产。美光 2026 财年第三季度财报
美光的另一项优势来自美国本土制造布局。公司计划扩大美国 DRAM 产能，这不仅有助于降低供应链风险，也可能获得政策支持和大型客户的长期订单。
不过，美光股价已经充分反映了行业复苏和 AI 需求增长。未来市场不会只看收入是否增长，还会看利润率能否维持、资本开支是否失控，以及新增产能何时投产。如果公司业绩只是符合预期，股价仍可能承受压力。
闪迪：押注 NAND 和企业级 SSD
闪迪的业务重点是 NAND Flash 和 SSD。与美光、SK 海力士相比，闪迪对 HBM 的直接参与较少，但它对 NAND 价格和企业级 SSD 需求更加敏感。
闪迪 2026 财年第三季度收入达到 59.5 亿美元，环比增长 97%，其中数据中心业务增长 233%。公司预计第四季度收入为 77.5 亿至 82.5 亿美元。闪迪 2026 财年第三季度财报
AI 数据中心需要的不只是 GPU 和 HBM。模型训练产生的数据集需要长期保存，推理服务需要频繁读取模型文件，缓存系统也需要更大的 SSD 容量。只要数据中心继续扩张，企业级 SSD 就有较强的增长空间。
闪迪的特点是盈利弹性大。NAND 价格上涨时，公司利润可能快速增长；但当供需关系发生变化，利润也可能快速回落。它更像一只高波动的存储价格标的，适合看好 NAND 周期、同时能够承受较大回撤的投资者。
SK 海力士：HBM 竞争力最突出
SK 海力士目前最强的业务仍然是 HBM。公司 2026 年第一季度收入达到 52.58 万亿韩元，营业利润达到 37.61 万亿韩元，营业利润率达到 72%，创下历史新高。SK 海力士 2026 年第一季度财报
SK 海力士在 HBM 产品、客户关系和量产经验方面具有优势。随着 AI 应用从模型训练扩展到实时推理，公司的增长也开始从 HBM 延伸到服务器 DRAM、eSSD 和其他高容量存储产品。
但 HBM 的竞争正在加剧。美光和三星都在提高产能和良率，客户也可能通过引入更多供应商来降低采购风险。SK 海力士当前的高利润率建立在技术领先和供给紧张之上。如果竞争对手缩小差距，或者 HBM 价格开始下降，公司的估值可能受到双重压力。My mom's colleague spent all her pension money on Bitcoin, and now she treats us to meals every day
She kept saying this during the family dinner last weekend
"Young people need to be bold."
But what I want to say is that in this position, many people's courage has already been worn down
Funding rates show that BTC and ETH remain in bearish territory
What does that mean?
That is, the long seller pays the short seller
This shows that most people in the market are still bearish
But strangely, BTC not only didn't fall this week but actually rose by 0. 6%
Then guess what
This kind of "bearish but not falling" market is actually the most challenging for people
If your analysis tells you you should go long
But market sentiment has consistently been bearish
Which one would you believe?
From my own experience,
Follow the data, not emotions
5 buy signals versus 0 sell signals
This data is not a lie
Although ETFs are seeing 225M outflows
But BTC prices did not fall
This indicates that OTC and spot buying orders are taking over
This is a signal that institutions are quietly accumulating funds
There's also a point of psychological struggle
The BitMart incident escalated over the weekend
The CEO said he was also notified to suspend operations
The MSX founder wants to acquire it again
This chaos actually shows that some people are picking up bargains at low prices
Those who dare to take the market during panic are often the big winners
So my judgment is
Don't let your emotions lead this position away emotionally
If funding rates are bearish≠ prices will fall
Sometimes, when everyone is bearish, that's actually the best window to build a position
Wait until everyone is bullishTrump halted the airstrikes, oil prices plummeted, and $BTC actually rose
Thirteen consecutive days of airstrikes stopped just like that.
On the 24th, Trump directly ordered that no new strikes against Iran would be launched that day. Following the news, WTI crude oil plunged nearly 4% in grey market trading, while Brent dropped more than 3%. BTC, on the other hand, has risen from around 63,800 to around 64,460.
The logic makes sense—oil prices fall→ inflation expectations cool, → risk assets catch their breath.
But don't get too happy too soon. Trump's exact words: "If we cannot get 100% of what we want from Iran, we will absolutely consider resuming a full-scale war." "And the Strait of Hormuz has not yet reopened.
In the short term, you can gamble for a rebound, but set stop-losses. Don't mistake tactical pauses for strategic peace.
Let's talk in the comments—do you think this rebound can last? Or is it just the calm before the storm? Tech giants collectively pull back: Why did these stocks all fall today?
Looking at the market today, a glaring red color was a stark display—Micron Technology (MU) plunged over 7%, Intel (INTC) plunged 12%, SanDisk (SNDK) fell nearly 11%, Tesla (TSLA) also fell 2.2%, and even Nvidia (NVDA) couldn't stay unscathed, slipping nearly 1%. Both the semiconductor and new energy vehicle sectors have cooled off. In my view, this adjustment is an inevitable profit-taking + sector rotation. Since the beginning of this year, AI concept stocks have surged dramatically, with chip giants like Nvidia already exhausting some of their optimistic expectations. Recently, the market has begun to worry that AI capital expenditure growth may slow down, with Micron and Intel, as representatives of memory and traditional chips, naturally bearing the brunt. Intel's biggest drop may reflect not only industry pressure but also ongoing market doubts about its competitiveness and transformation progress. Tesla, on the other hand, was dragged down by overall weakness in its new energy vehicle sector, with delivery data and Robotaxi narratives temporarily struggling to boost confidence. Looking deeper, this is the normal breath of a high-valuation sector. Tech stocks have risen so fiercely that capital needs a breather, and shifting to other undervalued sectors is also reasonable. On the macro front, interest rate expectations, inflation data, or geopolitical factors may also exacerbate the decline in short-term risk appetite. Personal view: Short-term pullbacks shouldn't be overly pessimistic, especially for NVIDIA, whose fundamentals remain strong and long-term AI demand remains. What truly needs to be watched out are Intel and some follower stocks; if there is no substantial improvement, the correction could be even deeper. But for high-quality stocks, this is often a "shakeout" rather than a "trend reversal."Changxin hasn't officially opened yet, but long and short positions on X are already fighting. Some are preparing to go all-in on 300,000 yuan in flash loans, while public addresses have held over 13 million USD in short positions; In the Chinese-speaking region, discussions about how much profit can be made from winning the lottery, while in the English-speaking region, the pre-market contract for Hyperliquid has already priced Changxin's valuation close to 3 trillion yuan. I compiled 31 tweets in both Chinese and English, checking issuance data, financial performance, industry news, pre-market prices, and market rumors one by one. I'm not going to guess a simple answer to a rise or fall first. What really needs to be answered is: How much is Changxin really worth? How was the 3 trillion yuan expectation formed? Which high-traffic news can be trusted? After the market opens, which data should we keep an eye on? 1. 31 tweets, but the most discussed topic isn't Changxin's technology. These 31 tweets are not a market-wide poll. I filter content with high pre-IPO views or those that represent a certain type of viewpoint. Among them, 20 tweets were in Chinese, and 11 were in English or other languages; 22 views exceeded 50,000, 14 views exceeded 100,000, and 9 exceeded 200,000. Categorizing them, the results are straightforward: - 10 discusses trading plans and retail sentiment; - 9 discusses valuation and pre-market prices; - 7 discussing companies and industries; - 5 are rumors or commercial promotions. Nearly two-thirds of the content discusses price, position, and "how much can be made?" What the company truly achieves is not the traffic center. The most viewed account is the English account [@zephyr_z9]. The problem is, the latter ones🛰 Jin Shi Radar | 21:49
Topic: Hormuz
According to Jinshi Express, [Saudi media: Iran claims it has not withdrawn from negotiations and is willing to continue talks with the U.S. in multiple locations in Geneva] Jinshi Data, July 26 — According to reports from Satellite Arabi and Saudi media Hadas, Iran has informed Pakistani officials that it has not withdrawn from negotiations but has temporarily suspended them. Iran reiterated the necessity of resuming negotiations during the stalemate phase and stated its refusal to open new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Iran has confirmed to Pakistan its willingness to continue negotiations (with the United States) in Geneva, Doha, Qatar, or Islamabad; And requested the restoration of...
Perspective: First, see if such news affects oil prices, the US dollar, or US stocks' risk appetite, then observe BTC/ETH following the trend.
Verification point: If no subsequent confirmation of price, trading volume, or safe-haven assets is made, treat it as a background variable and do not treat the title as a trading signal.
For market observation purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.$BASED — RECOVERY STRUCTURE FORMING
BASED is trading near $0.08386 after a moderate intraday pullback. The present price area could become a short-term recovery zone if buyers defend support and begin producing stronger volume.
TRADE SETUP
EP: $0.0831 – $0.0843
TP1: $0.0864
TP2: $0.0889
TP3: $0.0922
SL: $0.0804
Holding above the entry range could allow BASED to challenge TP1. A confirmed breakout above $0.0864 may attract additional momentum and open the way toward $0.0889 and $DOGE $BASED .On July 26th, at five o'clock in the morning, the light had not yet fully shone through the window,
The numbers on the screen hovered between 64,590.5 and 63,806.4, as if gripped by the city's sticky summer night, moving up and down by less than a percentage. The 24-hour trading volume is about 168 million USDT, which is neither too large nor too small—just enough for the candlestick to draw a few lazy shadows. No one cried out, nor did anyone panic. Amid this nearly frozen market, a statistic was quietly broken: ten listed companies collectively hold over one million bitcoins.
A whole number threshold arrived silently. Strategy still holds the top spot—843,775 tokens, equivalent to about $58 billion at current prices. This figure itself carries a distant echo, reminiscent of the market turmoil when MicroStrategy first bought Bitcoin in the summer of 2020. In the years that followed, from El Salvador to pension funds, from spot ETF approvals to now SpaceX quietly holding over 18,000 shares and listing on Nasdaq just over a month ago. Bitcoin's institutionalized narrative is so thick that it's almost impossible to remember it was once just a white paper attachment in a cypherpunk mailbox.
But on the other side of the screen, the stock price curve tells a completely different story. Since 2026, Riot Platforms has risen 73%, Cleanspark 39%, and Mara Holdings 31%; Strategy, on the other hand, fell 40%, Metaplanet fell 49%, Twenty One Capital fell 48%, and Coinbase Global fell 31%. The largest positions saw the stock price drop the heaviest; The mining companies' rally also seems to be a response to a repricing of infrastructure value. The logic in between is unclear and should not be simplified to a single cause and effect. Maybe it's just leverage structure, cash flow pressure, market sentiment rotation, or just a long and ordinary revaluation in the summer.
Fragmented news from the outskirts flowed in. Bitcoin ETF weekly trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since October 2024, while Ethereum ETFs have just ended a five-day streak of inflows, but weekly net inflows are still extending—capital seems more willing to chase the latecomer momentum. On the other side, some addresses went long with 38.55 million USDT held for eighteen hours, but eventually closed their positions at the 1% stop-loss line, losing $368,000—clean and decisive, like a nap without a dream. There's no tragic sadness of heavy positions or the drama of shorting in reverse—it's just a string of numbers that automatically disappears after being touched at a certain threshold.
The entire market seems to have entered a subtle period of silence. Bitcoin's DeFi value locked edged up 0.72% near $4.394 billion, like the water level slowly rising after a rainy season, but showing no signs of surging. And that "one million coins" integer is itself just a statistical trick under some surface—no one really knows exactly how much Bitcoin these companies hold is long-term chips in cold wallets, how much is the underlying asset of derivatives, and how many could be reduced at any time due to financial report pressure.
The last such dull summer was in 2023, and the last was in 2019. In every cycle, summer always feels especially long. The list of holders changes, the cost of holding positions changes, and the relative strength of stock prices also changes. The only things that are less likely to change are Bitcoins themselves, which quietly lie on the chain, confirm every ten minutes, and occasionally trigger a temporary alarm in blockchain explorers due to a large transfer. They don't speak, nor do they care whether they are in the vault of a listed company or the wallet of an anonymous whale.
When the summer heat finally fades and autumn's volatility returns to the market, this holding list will likely feature new names and new numbers. Any structure that seems unshakable in the present is only temporary in the face of time. For those staring at the screen, the only thing to remember: the story isn't over yet, your position isn't settled, and history never guarantees.Trump's $1.4 billion crypto income is killing the CLARITY Act
The bill can't pass, and the culprit is Trump himself
The CLARITY Act most likely won't make it before the August recess.
It's not a technical issue, nor a vote count issue; it's Trump's own $1.4 billion crypto income stuck in the way.
Bloomberg reported today: Trump earned about $1.4 billion from meme coins and token businesses, which has now become the biggest obstacle to passing the bill. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethics rules—the president can't issue tokens while legislating under his own government's regulation.
The Republicans only have 53 seats in the Senate, so to reach 60 votes, they need to bring at least 7 Democrats on board. But the Democrats are holding onto Trump's crypto income, causing a deadlock.
On Polymarket, the probability of passage has dropped from 74% in May to about 33%. The market is voting with money.
The irony is that the TRUMP coin issued by Trump himself has now become the stumbling block preventing him from pushing the crypto bill forward. The coin you issued is blocking your own bill.
This drama is still unfolding. But one thing is certain: the bill most likely won't pass before the August recess.
Discuss in the comments: do you think Trump will sell his coins for the bill, or would he rather keep them even if the bill fails? $BTC $ETH July 26 | BTC Data Evening Report
BTC market
BTC is quoted near $64,450, with an intraday high of about $64,566 and a low of about $64,028, up about 0.8% in 24 hours. The price continues to fluctuate around $64,000–$65,000, yet to break out of the recent consolidation range.
ETF funds
On July 24, the US spot BTC ETF saw a total net outflow of about $240.1 million, marking the second consecutive trading day of net outflows; From July 23 to 24, the cumulative net outflow was approximately $465.2 million.
The previous seven consecutive trading days of capital inflows have been interrupted, and institutional funds have shifted from continuous inflows to continuous withdrawals in the short term.
On-chain Tokens (Address Calibration)
Based on the consecutive snapshots from July 25 to 26:
Less than 10 BTC: net decrease of about 65 BTC, latest total holdings about 3.4722 million BTC
10–100 BTC: Net increase of about 182 BTC, latest total holdings about 4.2324 million BTC
Above 100 BTC: net increase of about 108 BTC, latest total holdings about 12.3542 million BTC
Internal changes above 100 BTC:
100–1,000 BTC: Net decrease of about 1,904 BTC
1,000–10,000 BTC: net increase of about 1,878 BTC
10,000–100,000 BTC: Net increase of about 134 BTC
Over 100,000 BTC: Basically unchanged
Total holdings above 100 BTC increased by only 108 BTC, but internal migration was obvious, mainly reflected in a decrease in the 100–1,000 BTC range, while the above 1,000 BTC level increased.
BTC exchange
The latest public snapshot shows that the total BTC balance across all exchanges is about 2.7032 million, with a net outflow of approximately 3,075 BTC.
Exchange balances remain in net outflows, diverging from ETFs for two consecutive days of net outflows: on-chain tradable tokens have decreased, but traditional funding channels have weakened in the short term.
Contract data
BTC contract open interest is about $48.53 billion, 24-hour contract turnover is about $19.696 billion, spot trading is about $1.124 billion, and BTC contract liquidation is about $6.366 million.
Open interest remains at a relatively high level, but weekend trading volume and liquidations are not large, so there is currently no obvious concentrated deleveraging in the market.
Important news today
Next week, the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively announce interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, Middle East developments pushed oil prices up to around $100 per barrel, energy prices renewed inflation expectations, and the market began to bet more on further rate hikes. High oil prices and expectations of high interest rates remain the most important external pressures for BTC in the near term.
BitMart announced the end of nine years of operations, with all trading halted on August 26 and officially shutting down on January 31, 2027; This is the second trading platform to announce its exit within a week, following BitMEX. BitMart previously reported a 24-hour turnover of about $1.6 billion, with consecutive exchange closures that may continue to affect market trust and capital concentration trends among small and medium-sized platforms.
Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, plans to establish crypto trading and custody infrastructure by December. Russia's new crypto trading, custody, and settlement rules will take effect in September, indicating that large traditional banks continue to enter the regulated crypto asset services sector, but the short-term direct impact on BTC liquidity is limited.
Next, let's focus on the main focus
Can BTC regain the $65,000 level and break through the recent resistance near $66,000?
Can ETFs resume net inflows after Monday's opening, or will continuous outflows expand further?
Will BTC exchanges continue to see net outflows, and whether addresses with 100–1,000 BTC will stop decreasing?
If oil prices remain near $100 and push U.S. Treasury yields higher, macro pressure on BTC is unlikely to ease significantly.
$BTC #星球日报 Bitcoin liquidity concentration: The altcoin season has not yet arrived; funds are circulating among a few coins
Has the current market formed a sustainable bullish structure, or is it driven solely by local leverage?
Core Fact: The original post clearly stated that the current market is not in an upward trend across the market, but rather liquidity circulating among limited coins. Funds are concentrated in a few tokens such as BTC, JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, and CHIP, while a large number of altcoins like BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, and RAVE are losing momentum. ETH, SOL, TAO, WLD, HYPE, DOGE, and ZEC are regarded as structural pillars, corresponding respectively to institutional capital, high beta risk appetite, AI narrative, risk appetite indicators, and retail investor rally pursuit.
Market structure changes: The core contradiction in current pricing is that BTC maintains liquidity anchoring at high levels, but the altcoins as a whole have not formed a synchronized rise. This has led to divergence in funding rates: BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain positive, but most altcoins have funding rates close to zero or even turned negative, indicating that leverage is more concentrated on BTC, with little sustained long position accumulation on the altcoin side. On the basis side, the BTC futures premium structure (Contango) still exists, but the margin has narrowed, suggesting the market is becoming more conservative in its outlook for forward gains.
Pricing transmission path: If BTC continues to consolidate sideways at the current level, it will be difficult for funds to spread outward to altcoins, because once liquidity is absorbed by BTC, altcoins will need to rely on lower valuations or stronger narratives to attract incremental capital. Conversely, if BTC experiences a significant pullback, it could trigger a bullish stamp, leading to concentrated leveraged liquidations and dragging down mainstream coins like ETH and SOL, resulting in a systemic correction. Among altcoins, highly liquid assets like JELLYJELLY and OPG may remain relatively strong during BTC consolidation, but stalled coins like BEAT and EDGE are likely to continue falling if they fail to receive new capital injections.
Biased bullish path and conditions: If the BTC funding rate remains positive and the basis widens again, it indicates that leveraged long positions continue to increase positions, and the market may be entering a localized trend continuation. At this point, it is important to observe whether JELLYJELLY, OPG, and others are experiencing sustained rallies after increased trading volume, and whether the stagnant coins are bottoming out with increased volume and stabilizing the decline. Bearish path and conditions: If BTC's funding rate quickly turns negative or the basis narrows below parity, it suggests that bull confidence is breaking down and may trigger chain liquidations. At the same time, be wary of the accelerated decline of stagnant coins, which could lead to a collapse in overall risk appetite on the counterfeit side.
Risk warning: The current market structure heavily relies on BTC liquidity anchorage. If BTC loses key support levels, it could trigger market-wide deleveraging. If stagnant coins continue to shrink in volume, it will be difficult to form an effective rebound.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $HYPE $DOGE #流动性集中 #杠杆结构 #山寨币分化📊 $LIT Quick Overview of Liquidations
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $50.73
· 4 hours: $2,484.51
· 12 hours: $5,236.94
· 24 hours: $27,600
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $0 $50.73 0%
4h $2,428.02 $56.50 97.7%
12h $5,022.43 $214.50 95.9%
24h $13,600 $14,000 49.3%
Duokong interpretation
Short liquidation in 1 hour was $50.73, long position was zero, very small scale; 4-hour and 12-hour long liquidations continue to crush short positions (accounting for 95.9%~97.7%), with prices continuing to fall; However, within 24 hours, short liquidations at $14,000 narrowly overtook the market (accounting for 50.7%), reversing the direction within 12-24 hours and turning into a short squeeze and upward trend. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "early long selling→ closing short reversal."
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.18% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 9.0% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 18.97% of 24 hours
The distribution of liquidations is obvious: the first 12 hours accounted for only 18.97%, while the 24-hour total volume is 5.27 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that short squeezes surged fiercely between the 12-24 hours (about $22,400 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 81.0% of the whole day). Currently, the market is in the stage of a short squeeze outbreak, with concentrated liquidations on short positions and closing sessions, so attention should be paid to its sustainability.
A one-sentence explanation
$LIT 24-hour short liquidation $14,000, accounting for 50.7% of the total, reversed direction, and the bulls ultimately prevailed.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress ━━━ Night Review · 2026-07-26 ━━━
Shadow Shaman · Hunters on the chain
At the end of the day, logic remains.
🧭 Today's panorama
→ BTC $64,554 24h: +0.86% · ETH $1,888 24h: +1.71% · SOL $74.92
→ Today's Volatility: BTC 0.64K ($63,996-$64,637)
→ Trading volume: BTC $1.87B · Funding rate: BTC 0.001% / ETH 0.001%
📊 Structural changes
• OI: $2.035B (31,524 BTC), no significant increase or decrease throughout the day
• Funding rate: Both currencies have rates at <0.0011%, at an absolute low with no directional pressure
• BTC Premium: -0.055% (slight discount), bears slightly taking the initiative but showing no aggressive intent
🔥 Today's highlights
• #1 DCA (BSC) +9.11% — 24-hour gain over 4000%, but MCap only $184K, 42% of shares share the same source, showing obvious signs of manipulation
• #2 PONS (XLayer) +5.59% — MCap $54.6 million, one of the largest memes in the XLayer ecosystem, saw a slight rise today
• TRUMP2028 (Solana) +1.29% — 5,306 token-holding addresses, maintaining popularity but with modest gains
• BullPad (Solana) -27.47% — Previously surging memes experienced a deep pullback today, a typical "catch knife scene"
⚡ Smart money flows
• Smart money on Solana today mainly focused on SalaryCat (bought at $1,487), but has already sold 70%, showing a clear pattern of fast in and out of stock
• Justice For Sara Gilson (Sara) was chased by 10 smart money addresses, with 82% having sold out
• Overall, Smart Money was doing short-term harvesting in the Solana meme layer with a "grab a hand, then exit" strategy, with no intention to hold overnight
💡 Shadows recoil
BTC followed a standard contracting sideways movement today—$64K spent the day within 40 points. OI remains unchanged, rates are flat, and premiums are discounted but only slightly increased, indicating that both bulls and bears are controlling their positions. Guessing the direction at this position is no different from guessing a coin; the bulls haven't exerted momentum, and the bears haven't broken through.
Memes on the hot topic side are lively, but the DCA market with 42% of the same source is clearly a trap—whoever chases the most here is caught by a flying knife. Smart money showed no intention of staying overnight at the Solana meme level today; after the rally, it left. This sentiment transmitted to the main board signaled "no incremental funds entering the market."
Tonight, I chose to continue observing. If BTC can shrink above $64K and grind for another day, the structure would actually be healthier. No matter how sharp or down, I won't take it.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📡 Shadow Shaman · Hunters on the chain
#暗影萨满🔥 From 46 to 142, then back to 79! $OKB This wave isn't a pullback; it's like rubbing the chives down and handing over a cigarette!
Guys, who wouldn't be confused by this $OKB script from July?
📉 At the beginning of the month (that needle in early July): still lying flat at 46 cuts, playing dead.
🔥 Then OKX set off a fire: burning 278.9 million $OKB, permanently welding the total at 21 million.
🚀 The price rocketed straight in: soaring to $142.88, a 193% massive syllable sold out all the bears.
💀 And then? : Fell back to around 79, and has been grinding for almost three weeks. With 24-hour trading volume shrinking to just over 50 million, retail investors are all asking, "Is this over?" ”
#OKX.ai: One person is a world-class company
---
🧬 Let me tell you, this trend is wild, and behind it are three hard logics clashing:
1. Supply side: OKX has fully transcribed Bitcoin's scarcity scenario
The total supply of 21 million was locked, and the smart contract completely blocked both the additional issuance and manual burning. X Layer's gas is still burning in small amounts. What does this mean? OKB won't be reborn; it will only become fewer. How many exchanges have you seen in history with fixed total supply tokens?
2. Demand Side: Bet on the entire ecosystem, fail or die
OKX cut OKT Chain and bet all on X Layer (Polygon CDK's zkEVM). OKB becomes the only fuel in the entire ecosystem + fee discounts + Jumpstart tickets. ICE (NYSE's real father) even came in to take a stand. This isn't just empty promises; it's just putting on a stage.
3. Market Volume: A typical shakeout after a surge, waiting for the big players to speak
The 50-day moving average at $79 is holding down, the 200-day moving average at $88 is holding down, and the RSI at 56 is lukewarm. This is the kind of being repeatedly rubbed in the middle, washing away those who are uncertain.
#OKX星球话题来啦
---
🗣️ My rough summary of the summary:
If you shout "reset to zero," wake up. An exchange token with a total supply of 21 million + full ecosystem gas is unprecedented in history.
If you're shouting "Breaking 200 soon," don't even dream about it. Before BTC doesn't cooperate and X Layer doesn't have daily active users, the grueling 79-82 range will have to stay for a while.
What stage is it now?
The Fear and Greed Index once dropped to 23 (extreme fear), retail investors are cutting losses, and large players are hesitating. A typical "no chase when prices rise, no buying when prices fall" — a twisted phase.
OKB is no longer a junk platform coin; it is a monster forcibly transformed by OKX into an "exchange-style BTC." In the short term, it will be dragged by the broader market; in the medium term, it depends on whether X Layer has real users; in the long term, it depends on whether the 21 million figure is enough to tell a story.
👇 Now the question arises:
Do you think OKB really dropped completely this round and is preparing for a second firing, or will they fake a fall and continue sawing wood at 78-82?
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
Chart analysis:
1. Long-term trend: Previously completed a deep bear market decline from a high of 104.63, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 30%.
2. Short-term structure: After bottoming out at 70, a recovery rebound began, and the current price has broken above all short-term moving averages, indicating a recovery in short-term bullish momentum
3. Resistance and support: First resistance above at 85, support below at 81-82 (MA5/MA10 moving averages)📊 JUST IN: Saylor Hints At More Bitcoin, But The Reality Is Sharper Now
"We're gonna need another color." Classic Saylor confidence, posted with a dashboard of Strategy's 843,775 BTC. But the numbers behind that swagger tell a harder story than the meme suggests.
📉 Where it stands:
Holdings: 843,775 BTC
Average cost: $75,653
Unrealized loss: about 14.8%, roughly $9.5 billion
Q2 digital asset loss: $8.32 billion, mostly unrealized
Here's what actually changed, and it matters. The "never sell" narrative is over. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC in early July for about $216 million, using the proceeds to fund preferred stock dividends and rebuild its dollar reserve. This followed a formal Bitcoin monetization program launched June 29 that lets the company sell up to $1.25 billion of BTC to cover obligations. A company built on the promise of relentless accumulation is now selling to pay its bills. That is a real shift, not a headline.
None of this means the long-term thesis is broken, and that's the honest takeaway. These losses are unrealized, the CFO says the reserve could cover net debt even if BTC fell 91%, and Strategy has still added coins across the cycle. The lesson worth borrowing is conviction and dollar-cost averaging over years, using capital you won't need tomorrow. The lesson to avoid is the leverage, the forced sales, and treating one confident tweet as a buy signal.
What to watch:
Whether Strategy keeps selling under the monetization program or resumes buying.
The health of its preferred stock and any pressure on MSTR shares, down 77% from the high.
A confident post from the biggest holder is not a catalyst. Respect the conviction, watch the balance sheet, because structure decides who survives a bear market.
Conviction that pays off, or a model meeting its limits?
Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL The list of bankruptcies continues to grow!
On July 23, @BitMEX announced that its operations would be closed starting from 04:00:00 UTC on September 23, 2026.
On July 24, @odosprotocol announced that the app would switch to read-only mode on July 27, and all Odos services would be permanently shut down on July 30, 2026.
July 25 @dango announced the termination of the project. On Wednesday, August 13, at 12:00 UTC, the Dango L1 blockchain will cease operations.
On July 25, Poolin @officialpoolin, once the world's largest Bitcoin mining pool, filed for bankruptcy.
July 26 @BitMartExchange Announced that all trading services will cease on August 26, 2026, 01:00 UTC. On January 31, 2027, 15:59 UTC: Platform operations will officially cease.
Looking at these death lists, there are basically two types of deaths:
1⃣ Fake demand is exposed; in a bull market, just start financing with infrastructure or aggregators, but in a bear market, it's clear there is no commercial closed loop.
2⃣ Leverage backfired, and Coinyin, which seemed stable as a leveraged method, was also wiped out. It could have jumped on this AI wave and sold at a good price, but unfortunately, it died before dawn.
In the second half of a bear market, if you can hold your capital and avoid pitfalls, you've already outperformed 90% of people.📊 $ZEC Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $3,530.82
· 4 hours: $49,000
· 12 hours: $191,600
· 24 hours: $574,100
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $3,530.82 $0 100%
4h $4,686.80 $44,300 9.6%
12h $11,400 $180,200 5.9%
24h $93,900 $480,200 16.4%
Duokong interpretation
100% of the 1-hour long liquidations ($3,530.82) were made, but the scale was so small that it could be ignored; From the 4-hour onward, short liquidation suddenly crushed the bulls (accounting for 90.4%), initiating a short squeeze rally; The 12-hour short position ratio reached as high as 94.1%, the most intense short squeeze of the day; Within 24 hours, short positions were liquidated at $480,200 (83.7%), with short squeezes continuing into the later stages. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "short-term disturbances → persistent extreme short squeezes," with bears suffering devastating liquidation.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.62% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 8.54% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 33.38% of 24 hours
Liquidations are concentrated in the 12-hour cycle (about one-third), but the total 24-hour volume is 3.00 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating a sharp escalation of short squeezes in the 12-24 hours (about $382,500 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 66.6% of the day). Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with bears suffering heavy losses, but after extreme gains, caution is needed to be aware of the risk of sharp pullbacks.
A one-sentence explanation
$ZEC 24-hour short liquidation at $480,200, accounting for 83.7% of the total, with short squeezes dominating and upgrades in the later stages, the bulls winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress Trump reported $1.4B+ in crypto income for 2025.
Breakdown from his financial disclosure:
$635M — $TRUMP meme coin sales
$770M— World Liberty Financial
$520M from token sales
$250M from selling business interests
That’s a 9x jump from last year. Crypto is now his largest source of income.
Meanwhile the Senate can’t move the CLARITY Act.
Democrats argue you can’t have a president regulating crypto while making $1B+ from it.
Republicans argue the bill shouldn’t be written around one person.
The current draft would ban sitting officials from issuing or sponsoring new digital assets.
But it doesn’t fully address family-run projects.
Conflict or not — this is why ethics is holding up the biggest crypto bill in years.
NFA. DYOR. Watch the disclosures, not just the charts.
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause #EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause Is the crypto world really tough? Or did the US stock market show its weakness first? In the short term, it's exciting to watch, but don't rush to catch up on the signal—whoever acts impulsively in this market will suffer.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 64,440 +0.57% $ETH 1,885 +1.24%
$QQQ -1.12% $SPY +0.10% $IBIT -0.82%
$DXY +0.03% $GLD +0.10%
Crude oil and Hormuz have been shivering, and inflation expectations have never been honest. The crypto world and ETFs are still competing over risk appetite, but once the old scripts of AI and semiconductors flip the page, $QQQ's mood switch can instantly split the entire market. Qian clearly shifted toward defense, $QQQ that bit of energy couldn't hold the court at all.
$ETH Today is more elastic than $BTC, and risk appetite is still struggling to push upward, but $IBIT is a bit weaker than spot trading. ETF funds entering the market have narrowed down, indicating spot stocks aren't as aggressive. $DXY Heads are stubbornly suppressed by risk assets, $GLD still in the red, haven't even escaped all the hedging funds, just keeping a backup plan.
A barrage of analysis is fierce as a tiger, but whether the market rises or falls, Trump is still watched. Don't rush to bet; wait for clearer signals. Whoever shows weakness first will set the direction first. Let's wait and see.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零Recently, market sentiment has warmed up, and $SHIB has seen a strong rebound. In just two trading days, the price started around $0.0000042, reaching a high of $0.0000058, with a maximum increase of nearly 36% during the range. Its market capitalization rose by about $1 billion simultaneously, reassembling it among the top 30 crypto assets by market cap. Many people simply attribute this round of rally to MEME sector rotational speculation, but considering on-chain, tokenomics, and capital flow data, the market-driven logic is far more complex than surface sentiment. First, let's review SHIB's underlying token framework, which is the foundation for understanding all market trends. The initial total supply of SHIB was 1,000 trillion, with 500 trillion transferred to the Vitalik burn address during launch, laying the foundation for the project's deflationary nature. As of the latest Shibburn on-chain statistics, the total amount burned has reached 410.84 trillion, accounting for 41.08% of the original supply, permanently deprived of the circulating market; Currently, the circulating market supply remains at 589.16 trillion coins. Many market participants tend to misunderstand that continuous burning will quickly cause supply shortages. Objective data clearly shows that early burns exceeding 400 trillion were concentrated in 2021, a one-time large-scale burn, with daily community burns relatively limited in the past year. On the eve of this rally, the daily regular burn volume mostly stayed in the millions of tokens, but during the market kickoff, the 24-hour burn rate surged by up to 1400%, with 6.75 million tokens burned in a single day, and the burning frenzy rapidly heating up.Many players are used to speculating on MEME and AI hot coins, so switching to $OKB easily leads to pitfalls. They often wonder: why does the hot market keep surging, but OKB often remains lukewarm? Today, let's break down and talk about the underlying gameplay of this platform coin. Let's start with the underlying background: OKB is the native token of the OKX exchange, and has long been more than just a simple exchange points. In the early days, its main functions were fee deductions and participation in new token subscriptions on platforms; A major upgrade followed, with a permanent lock of 21 million tokens, completely closing the new minting channel, and making it the native gas token of the X Layer 2 network. Simply put, OKB has a dual value foundation: on one hand, it relies on centralized exchange transaction fee buyback and burning; on the other, it undertakes the development needs of the second-layer public chain ecosystem. Compared to altcoins that tell stories out of thin air, they have real and continuous business cash flow as a foundation, which is the fundamental reason for their stronger resilience during bear markets. Let's clarify the core logic of the current market: hot small coins rely on speculative funds for short-term rallying, causing sentiment to surge continuously; But OKB's price is tightly tied to two things: the exchange's overall trading volume and the large-scale ecosystem event launched by the official team. During market frenzy, funds favor highly elastic theme coins and look down on platform coins with slow paces; But once the market falls into volatility and market risks rise, funds start clustering together with platform coins to hedge risks. This creates its unique trending feature: it's hard to surge in prices, and big drops often lag behind the knockoffs. It's hard to see a single-day main upward wave of 20 to 30 points; more of it is a volatile upward movement and repeated pull-up cycles. A few that can be tracked in the future⚠️🏅 $YGG /USDT Market Alert 📊
YGG is holding around $0.0186 with improving sentiment. Support lies near $0.0180, while resistance is around $0.0195 and $0.0205. 🎯 Target: $0.0195 → $0.0205 → $0.0220. 🎯 Stop Loss: $0.0177. 🛑 Next Move: A breakout above $0.0195 could spark fresh bullish momentum, while losing support may trigger a short-term pullback. 💯#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #KoreaAIChipPush 📊 $OKB Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $153.74
· 4 hours: $158.06
· 12 hours: $158.06
· 24 hours: $37,600
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $0 $153.74 0%
4h $0 $158.06 0%
12h $0 $158.06 0%
24h $0 $37,600 0%
Duokong interpretation
Short liquidations account for 100% of the cycles, while long liquidations account for zero, indicating an extreme unilateral short squeeze upward trend. In the first 12 hours, liquidation was extremely small (about $154~$158), with mild short squeezes initiating; 24-hour liquidation surged to $37,600, with short squeeze conditions exploding in 12-24 hours. Ultimate winner: Bulls—Bearish and late trading face concentrated and devastating liquidation.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.41% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 0.42% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 0.42% of 24 hours
Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 0.42%, while the total 24-hour volume is about 238 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that the short squeeze market exploded in the latter half. Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with concentrated liquidations on short positions at the close, but after extreme gains, caution is needed regarding the risk of sharp corrections.
A one-sentence explanation
$OKB 24-hour short liquidation at $37,600, accounting for 100%, followed by explosive upgrades in the following 12 hours, with bulls winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress $BTC futures demand is increasing further. The positive value of futures demand indicates that real demand is emerging.
However, spot demand remains negative. Total demand is negative because the negative value of spot demand is larger.
A real rally must be accompanied by real demand. Currently, real demand is occurring in the futures market but futures market is still negative demand.
A real rally will begin when real demand emerges in the spot market.这究竟是真正的“山寨季”（Altcoin Season），还是又一次情绪诱多的“噪音”？👀
表面上看，绿盘飘红与局部暴涨让市场的 FOMO（恐慌追高）情绪急剧升温。然而，真正的山寨季标志是**全场普涨与流动性全面扩散**。当下我们所经历的，不过是存量资金在极少数标的中的**残酷轮动**，而非增量资金的整体扩容。
主力资金高度集中在极少数头部资产中，而绝大多数代币根本无法获得持续的买盘承接。
### 📊 流动性阵营划分与筹码结构
* **资金强吸筹区（存量聚焦）**：$BTC、$JELLYJELLY、$OPG、$SLX、$LAB、$BSB、$ALLO、$CHIP
* **动能维持区（局部热度）**：$MEME、$EDEN、$HUMA、$ZKP、$METIS
* **动能衰退/滞涨区（缺乏买盘）**：$BEAT、$EDGE、$COAI、$TRUMP、$RAVE、$SPACE、$SOPH、$IP、$AVNT、$ZAMA、$OFC、$PIEVERSE、$VIRTUAL、$ACU、$H、$MEGA
### 🏛️ 核心资产锚点与价值重估
| 标的 | 市场角色与定位 | 最新动态 / 参考基准 |
|---|---|---|
| **$BTC** | **流动性之王 👑** | 现报 **$64,530**（日内微涨 0.92%），全网加密总市值维持在 **$2.18 万亿**，依然是市场的绝对锚点。 |
| **$ETH** | **机构应用乐园** | 现报 **$1,880** 附近，质押锁定量的增加持续削减现货抛压。 |
| **$SOL** | **高 Beta 弹性下注** | 生态活跃度居高不下，仍是寻求超越大盘超额收益的首选战场。 |
| **$TAO / $WLD** | **AI 叙事双雄** | 深度绑定 OpenAI 及全球半导体产业链的最新博弈动态。 |
| **$HYPE** | **风险偏好晴雨表** | 衡量高杠杆与高风险偏好资金流动量的核心指标。 |
| **$DOGE / $ZEC** | **散户情绪与隐私博弈** | 镜面般反映散户风险偏好与隐私规避情绪的起伏。 |
### 📰 宏观驱动与新闻催化剂
1. **监管法案暂缓 (#CLARITYActStalled)**：
美国国会关于加密市场结构的《CLARITY 法案》（H.R. 3633）因涉及利益冲突与严格的道德审查条款，在参议院议程中暂时被推迟至 8 月休会之后。这一政策层面的不确定性，使得大型合规机构在全面进场部署山寨币时表现得更为审慎。
2. **地缘局势暂时缓和 (#USIranStrikePause)**：
美方暂停针对中东特定设施的打击行动，且未再出现新的军事升级，使宏观避险情绪有所释放，油价回落的同时为加密市场提供了喘息的机会。
> **残酷的真相**：只有当流动性全面铺开、市场参与度在各个赛道同步爆发时，真正的山寨季才算到来，而不是仅凭 5 个代币霸占头条。
>
在此之前：**严控风险，顺应资金流向，果断拒绝 FOMO 追高。** 📈
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause It's been four years since it was this quiet, guys. The ancient whales who entered in 2017 finally stopped selling their stocks. It's not that they won't smash, it's just that they can't move anymore. Those who should have run have already left. Just seeing the data, dormant $BTC activity has dropped to its lowest point since Q3 2022. What does that mean? Back in 2022, it had just crashed from 69,000, and everyone played dead together. Here it comes again. To be honest, this is more true than any technical indicator. Think about it: when $BTC surged to over 100,000 at the end of last year, OGs were selling like crazy, and all the coins that had been sitting in their wallets for seven or eight years were revived. After cashing in that wave of profits, they either have no stock left or only zero-cost positions left. With zero-cost $BTC, why are people in such a hurry? No rush to sell. This is the tacit understanding of the market. Large funds remain stagnant, while small funds run wild. While the altcoin season is having fun, mainstream coins are actually quite stable. I checked on-chain data, and in the past month, the number of old coins moving was pitifully low. Last time it was this quiet, what happened afterward? After four months of sideways movement, a major bullish candlestick broke through the sky. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this time will be the same. But one thing is clear: selling pressure is really exhausting. When $BTC dropped a few months ago, I told them not to panic, and now I still say the same thing. If the big game really collapses, the OGs won't be this calm. They are the most sensitive and run faster than anyone. What does the collective pretend to be dead now mean? It means the real panic has not yet arrived. Brothers who are short sellers, think carefully—right in front of you is the most reluctant group of holders in the world. If they don't sell, where can you borrow coins to throw them away? Of course, a bull market doesn't come overnightWell-known trader Kla tweeted that Bitcoin's cycle is accelerating. In the previous cycle, it took only 476 days to go from bottom to record high, much faster than the previous two rounds. He expects this round to break the previous high ahead of the next halving.
To be honest, the trend of shortening cycles is already quite obvious. The reasons behind this are not hard to guess—institutional funds, ETFs, and macro liquidity are flowing in, causing the market to react much faster than before. Combined with social media and leverage tools, the speed of sentiment and price transmission is simply not on the same level. The old stereotype of "every four years a bull and bear" might really need to be changed now.
However, acceleration has two sides. On one hand, if you're still waiting for some "standard right-side signal," you might miss out on a significant rally in the blink of an eye; On the other hand, acceleration means a stronger pullback, and the probability of getting stuck after chasing highs rises sharply. So instead of getting caught up in left and right sides, it's better to manage your positions well, build positions in batches, set stop-losses, and don't let emotions run wild. As for his mention of "new highs before the halving," I think it's quite likely, but that doesn't mean a big pit won't be hit first. In short, focusing on macro data and capital flows is far more reliable than stubbornly stubbornly obsessing over historical patterns. 😂 📊 $XAUT Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $194.64
· 4 hours: $194.64
· 12 hours: $5,107.83
· 24 hours: $36,000
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $0 $194.64 0%
4h $0 $194.64 0%
12h $60.82 $5,047.01 1.2%
24h $30,800 $5,176.69 85.6%
Duokong interpretation
In the first 12 hours, short liquidation crushed long positions (short positions accounted for 98.8%~100%), and prices continued to rise; Within 24 hours, long positions were liquidated at $30,800, strongly overtaking (accounting for 85.6%), with a sharp reversal occurring within 12-24 hours, turning into a one-sided downtrend. Ultimate winner: Bears—showing a pattern of "short squeeze upward→ surge and pullback, extreme long selling."
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.54% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 0.54% of 24 hours
· 12 hours account for 14.2% of 24 hours
Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 14.2%, while the 24-hour total is 7.05 times the 12-hour volume, indicating a strong burst in the 12-24 hours (about $30,900 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 85.8% of the day). Currently, the market is in a bear-led sustained sharp decline, and in the short term, attention should be paid to technical recovery signals after oversold conditions.
A one-sentence explanation
$XAUT 24-hour long liquidation at $30,800, accounting for 85.6% of the total, with an early short squeeze followed by extreme bullish selling at the close, with bears winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress SK Hynix
SK Hynix's stock price has fluctuated sharply, but the AI server has not been equipped with a single HBM block as a result.
SK Hynix is sending samples of 12-layer HBM4E to major customers and collaborating with NVIDIA on next-generation AI memory, expanding its growth strategy from HBM to AI DRAM, NAND, and enterprise-grade SSDs. AI computing power development remains a long-term tailwind, but the market is beginning to worry: whether current storage prices and profit margins are close to cycle highs, and whether price competition will resume after Samsung and Micron's expansions.
US ADRs have recently fluctuated sharply around $156, showing a clear premium over Korean common stocks, indicating investors are not only betting on companies but also paying for scarcity. Technically, focus on support at $150 to $153; if it falls below it, target $145; The main resistance above is $164 to $170.
SK Hynix's long-term logic hasn't disappeared, but the most dangerous short-term thing may be "good news everyone knows." Do you think this is a golden pit for AI memory, or a reminder before the storage cycle shifts?
$SKHY #SK海力士 #HBM #AIThe early rally of $ORDI truly ignited the first wave of BRC20 inscription booms, and during that rally, market liquidity was basically dominated by domestic players.
The scale is no longer what it used to be. Today, ORDI is no longer just a target for Chinese players; global Bitcoin ecosystem participants are closely watching its rise and fall. Especially now, with Rune $DOG continuing to weaken and narratives lacking, overseas funds will further solidify ORDI's position as the leading Bitcoin native asset.
But don't expect the market to start immediately; ORDI will continue to fluctuate and shake out, and another half year of grinding is a reasonable scenario. Even if a major bull market has not yet arrived, local hotspots within the sector will continue to emerge: emerging protocols and underlying platforms such as Alkanes, Subfrost, Tap-Nat, Radfi, and Bound will continue to generate phased opportunities.
The narrative of the track keeps iterating, with hot topics alternating between old and new, but ORDI, as the emotional anchor of the Bitcoin ecosystem, holds an unshakable position in the short term.Is the P/E ratio of Changxin Storage's IPO as high as 300? Is it still playable?
┈➤ Static P/E ratio for 2025
◆ #ChangxinStorage opens tomorrow, issue price 8.66,
◆ New shares 668,808.8608 million (accounting for 10% of total shares),
◆ Net profit attributable to the parent company at the end of 2015 was 1,874,859,400 yuan.
◆ According to A-share IPO standards, calculate the static P/E ratio for 2025:
PE = 8.66 * 668,808.8608 * 10 / 187,485.94 = 308.92
But this is static data at the end of 2025; the market may and should calculate and value based on dynamic data.
┈➤ Rolling P/E ratio from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026
◆ Net profit attributable to the parent company from 25Q2 to 26Q1
= Full year 2025 + Q1 2026 - Q1 2025
= 187,485.94 + 2,476,203.15 - (-155,902.79)
= 2,819,591.88
◆ Calculate the rolling P/E ratio based on IPO price
PE-TTM【25Q2~26Q1】
= 8.66 * 668,808.8608 * 10 / 2,819,591.88
= 20.54
┈➤ Rolling P/E ratio from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 (conservative estimate)
Net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2026 is between 5,000,000 and 5,700,000; applying the principle of prudence, take the lower limit.
◆ Net profit attributable to the parent company from 25Q3 to 26Q2
= Full year 2025 + first half of 2026 - first half of 2025
= 187,485.94 + 5,000,000 - (-233,205.82)
= 5,420,691.76
◆ Calculate the rolling P/E ratio based on IPO price
PE-TTM【25Q3~26Q2】
= 8.66 * 668,808.8608 * 10 / 5,420,691.76
= 10.68
┈➤ Final notes
Cambricon's current P/E is 285, highest 371,
Hygon Information's current P/E is 267, highest 315,
First, some friends compare Changxin Storage with Hynix, but they are actually not comparable.
Because there are differences between markets, Hynix as the leading storage company has a P/E lower than Micron $MU and even SanDisk $SNDK. This is due to differences in environment and sentiment between the Korean and US stock markets.
Therefore, Changxin Storage should not be compared with Hynix. Instead, it can be referenced against AI stocks in the A-share market,
Cambricon's current P/E is 285, highest 371,
Hygon Information's current P/E is 267, highest 315.
Second, calculating Changxin Storage's P/E based on 2025 year-end profits yields 308.9.
However, the market may value it based on updated data.
Based on 25Q2~26Q1, the rolling P/E is 20.54. Based on a conservative estimate for 25Q3~26Q2, the rolling P/E is 10.68.
So theoretically, Changxin Storage still has some room to rise after opening.
Third, the overall trend of the storage sector is currently uncertain whether it has bottomed out.
Fourth, Changxin Storage's main product is DRAM, which may have weaker rigid demand from AI compared to HBM.
Fifth, Changxin Storage was still in a loss state in the first half of 2025, with a sharp profit surge in 2026; whether this rapid growth can be sustained requires time to prove.
I haven't played big A-shares, so I don't have much say, but theoretically Changxin Storage should be fine up to 17 (PE-TTM【25Q3~26Q2】about 20).
Optimistically, it might reach around 40 (PE-TTM【25Q3~26Q2】about 50).
Extremely optimistically, it might exceed 70 or even reach 80 (PE-TTM【25Q3~26Q2】close to 100).
The large valuation difference is caused by the huge profit gap between 2025 and 2026 for Changxin Storage; whether this growth trend is a short-term burst or will continue long-term is still uncertain.Guys, YGG rose 4.21% today, currently priced at $0.01854. Behind this bullish candlestick, the core catalyst comes from expectations of a strategic restructuring of the project: on July 7, YGG officially announced the closure of its game publishing division YGG Play, laying off 35 employees, and games like LOL Land will officially delaunch on July 31. This move is not a project crisis, but rather a shift in focus to AI game behavior data services, with player behavior datasets usable for AI model training, and the market speculating on its long-term potential to enter the AI data track. Technical Aspects: Support at 0.0185-0.0187; resistance above is seen at 0.0192/0.0200/0.0210, with the previous high at 0.0212 forming strong resistance; Below is a key defensive position at 0.0175. Core risk: Trading volume heavily depends on the futures market, with contract size significantly higher than spot trading. Leverage funds dominate the market, making the structure fragile and causing amplified volatility. With only a few days left until YGG Play officially shuts down on July 31, the market is weighing the narrative expectations of transformation, and caution is needed to watch out for selling pressure that may materialize after the event materializes. Key point: Currently, the AI data business is still in the strategic planning stage and has no revenue from implementation; At the same time, YGG tokens do not have the capability to capture business revenue. These are event-driven, high-volatility short-term targets, with the bottom line of the game being fast in and out. Do not mistake short-term thematic rebounds for trend reversals; strictly manage positions and risks. Personal market views今天看到 BitMex 和 BitMart 这两家交易所相继停止运营，有点唏嘘。这一年多多慢熊的过程中，已经有很多web3 的项目在相继消失或者换皮，市场上的热钱也在逐渐流向 ai 领域
对于这两家交易所在如此巧合的情况下相继在同一周关停，我觉得又是个原因：
1. 流动性在向头部交易所集中，大多韭菜和巨鲸通常都会选择盘口最深，滑点最低，对手方最多的平台。流动性越差，用户就会越少，用户越少，用户就会进一步下降，然后就会左脚踩右脚，进入死亡螺旋。
2. Hyperliquid这种链上交易平台正在蚕食 cex的市场份额。交易者在这些 dex 上可以自行托管资产，而且平台规则和储备也更透明。这让没有现货生态，或者机构托管业务的老牌合约交易所更加难以生存
3. 合规成本上升，以前那种开曼注册，服务全球的方法行不通了，欧洲和北美以及新加坡，香港的 web3 生态都开始走向规范化，在这个过程中就免不了出现像 bitmex 这种跟不上的因为合规问题不得不停止在欧洲地区的业务
4. 平台币开始反噬，这是另一个死亡螺旋：交易所经营困难时，平台币价格下跌，然后下跌导致用户减持，抵押品和财务储备编制，市场对平台的偿付能力产生怀疑，然后再次左脚踩右脚，直到跌入谷底
不知道这两家交易所的停止到了熊市的底部还是刚刚开始。但不管怎样，还是希望行业越来越好，大家都能有钱赚，有肉吃#新手必看: Everything you need is here
Today, according to the latest statistics released by RootData, by the end of 2026, 99 crypto projects have announced shutdowns, bankruptcy, or complete website shutdowns. The list includes many well-known names: from established contract derivatives platforms like BitMEX, BitMart, and AscendEX, to highly useful on-chain Kanban and wallet tools like Zapper, Parsec, Leap, Ctrl, and even DeFi protocols like Stream Finance and Altura.
After seeing these 99 death lists, to be honest, I don't feel pessimistic; on the contrary, I think this is a bloody yet very healthy "dehydration reshuffle" in a high-interest industry environment.
A careful breakdown of these dead projects reveals a harsh iron rule: the era of surviving by storytelling and token money subsidies is over.
The deaths in these 99 items mainly target three major causes of death:
The first cause of death is the "value capture black hole" of pure front-end tool protocols. Kanban and wallets like Zapper, Parsec, and Leap have good product experiences, but pure front-end platforms lack native token profit capture mechanisms and no commercial closed loop. During bear markets and periods of stock competition, the high costs of nodes and server operations have directly drained the team's cash flow.
The second cause of death was the complete failure of inflation and Ponzi mining. Protocols like Stream Finance used to print their own governance tokens to attract liquidity with high APYs. But under the pressure of the 10-year US Treasury risk-free rate of 4.7%, smart money would rather hold onto Treasuries than play the game of air token inflation. Once subsidies stop, Chizi immediately became a dead city.
The third cause of death is liquidity loss and compliance backlash among second-tier CEXs. As Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume surpasses that of traditional compliant CEXs, coupled with soaring regulatory compliance costs such as BitMEX lawsuits, the survival space of small and medium-sized CEXs is being squeezed by both on-chain DEXs and leading compliance giants, forcing them to go bankrupt and exit after liquidity runs dry.
My conclusion: The collective death of these 99 projects is the market helping you clean and cut out. Those who will survive in the future will either be leading public blockchains/DEXs with strong underlying network effects, or real yield blue-chip companies that continuously generate real fiat revenue and protocol dividends.
Among these 99 deadly items, have you ever used or fallen into a pitfall? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.The essence of TSLA's sharp drop is: the market is not denying Tesla's future,
but is demanding that these future businesses be reflected more quickly and clearly in the financial statements.
The necessary conditions for Tesla's rise are: smooth rollout of FSD v15, scaled operation of Robotaxi,
and production ramp-up of Optimus—at least two of these must achieve substantial breakthroughs.
The sufficient condition for the rise is: while the above breakthroughs occur, automotive gross margin stabilizes and free cash flow improves, convincing the market that the "burn phase" is about to end.
Currently, Tesla is in the painful transition from the "car sales story" to the "AI story."
The market is willing to wait, but not indefinitely. Every upcoming quarterly report will be a major test of whether the "story can become reality." #财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ $TSLA STRC's paper losses blew up a group yesterday. Treasury's book numbers forcibly pushed preferred stock discounts into an industry-wide credit test. To be honest, the moment I saw the Strive holdings exposed, I felt this wasn't that simple. It's not just one company's pressure, but everyone's problem. When $BTC broke below support, those telling stories about paper profits suddenly realized their preferred shares had become hot potatoes. The discount rate was much faster than expected, and liquidity drained the entire Bitcoin market The treasury valuation model is shaking. Sisters, stay calm. It's not that I'm trying to create anxiety, but this contagion is really fast. A book loss from a treasury can make an entire institution reprice the risk of Bitcoin holdings. The balance sheet management that was hyped up last year has become a tightening curse this year. The key isn't whether you have $MSTR, but treasuries with similar patterns Everyone is being re-evaluated. STRC is just the first domino to fall. Behind it are a bunch of people using the same logic to snowball. I'm not chasing highs or in a hurry to sell. Let's first see how the US stock market reacts tonight. If no one even accepts the discount on preferred stocks, that would be the real big problem. Is there still hope for treasury? Which side are you on on this topic? #芯片股反弹, short positions in U.S. stocks hit a record high #加密行情回暖, Bitcoin rose #美股全线走高, and crypto stocks led the gains This time, there was no new name that made me willing to raise my attention; instead, two old observation items gave completely different signals.
HBULL is currently about $0.00157, with a market capitalization of about $1.5 million, liquidity of about $125,000, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $872,000. Real transactions still exist, but RugCheck has a new tip that one address holds 25.83%. The project team stated that the large tokens are in the staking vault, but I have not yet been able to independently confirm the correspondence between this address and the publicly available staking procedure. About 97.97% of the main pool liquidity certificates are locked, and the rights for additional issuance and freezing have been revoked; Before the use of large addresses is proven, I just treat it as a routine observation.
Contract: 7V6Sk63y8Rr1MvcN5mYNp61wgFhy4EeQg5gUASk9pump
https://dexscreener.com/solana/edx18gjcdijqslaja2pp5c2vma3btrrx4utxkejufrtq
BUB is earlier and more dangerous. Within about four hours, the number of holding addresses increased from 1,027 to 2,292, with about 3,537 independent traders and approximately $1.2 million in transactions; However, during the same period, the price pulled back about 30%, liquidity dropped to around $27,000–$29,000, and the turnover was more than forty times the liquidity. Tokens are temporarily dispersed, the main pool is nearly 100% locked, the proportion of bots is unknown, and the project has no verifiable official relationship with Lil BUB's original IP.
Contract: 4FaSuBUp15t9Qiar9MdpaspkZJU5RK6A3QLnybNCpump
https://dexscreener.com/solana/J1GuZspgz3kxJqgngTGsR5QyJioSLAoZnApFd2yvtVsR
Next, I will verify three things: whether the HBULL large address can prove it is a bound vault; Whether buyback and reward transactions can be aligned consecutively; After BUB's hype cools down, can its holdings and liquidity remain? Large addresses concentrating into the pool, HBULL main pool lock-up continues to drop significantly, or BUB liquidity continues to rapidly drain away, all of which make me stop watching.
High-risk research records, not trade advice.