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The AI bull market is entering its second half.
On July 29, the market finally began to reprice the "AI faith."
In the past month, the AI hardware chain has almost collectively gone cold:
• $SKHYNIX SK Hynix -53%
• $SNDK SanDisk -47%
• Intel -34%
• Samsung Electronics -32%
• $MU Micron -28%
What was once the most crowded trade has now become the sector with the largest declines.
The reason is actually not complicated.
When everyone believed AI would change the world, the market started asking another question:
Who can really make money?
Capital expenditures are increasing, valuations are getting more expensive, competition is intensifying, but profit realization is slowing down.
So funds began to withdraw from "talking about the future" AI hardware and shift toward "making money now" core assets.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong internet giants are undergoing a value re-rating:
• Xiaomi +46%
• Meituan +36%
• JD.com +28%
• Alibaba +22%
• Tencent +11%
South Korean foreign capital continues to flow out, while southbound funds have been continuously flowing into Hong Kong stocks.
This is not a simple style rotation but a global capital search for a better risk-reward ratio.
The market is moving from chasing imagination back to cash flow; from chasing high-valuation growth to embracing low-valuation leaders.
AI will not end, but AI trading has entered the second half.
The real opportunity is no longer about who tells the best story, but who can consistently make money.
Bull markets never end; they only keep changing protagonists.
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
#AI巨头债券利差飙升：投资风险还是抄底良机 $BEAT This rally mainly benefited from the cyclical rotation of the sector. Today, the NFT sector rebounded by 8.07% overall, while BEAT, as the sector leader, surged over 20% in a single day, directly igniting the entire sector. Audiera's tokenomics model also provides strong support. The project counters the selling pressure caused by unlocking through continuous token burning. Recent revenue and burn reports show 780,000 BEAT burned in a single week, giving the market confidence on the supply side. Additionally, whales are also increasing their positions. Data shows that whale trading activity increased significantly before BEAT's rise, with the whale-to-retail holding ratio Delta rising to 0.0123, a nearly one-month high. Looking at the longer cycle, BEAT's cumulative gain in the past six months has reached 890%, and the upward trend itself is self-reinforcing. Combined with Audiera's differentiated positioning in AI music and decentralized streaming tracks, along with the recent overall rebound in the AI sector, multiple favorable factors have made BEAT a prime target for capital pursuit.#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
📊 $CL Liquidation Overview
24-hour total liquidation $2,296,500
Long liquidations $1,278,900 accounting for 55.7% of total
Short liquidations $1,017,600, longs only $261,300 more than shorts
1-hour long liquidations $89,900 accounting for 97%, shorts only $2,743.41, extreme long liquidation seen at open
4-hour long liquidations $92,000 accounting for 92.2%, shorts $7,749.47, long liquidation trend intensifies
12-hour short liquidations $707,700 surpassing longs, accounting for 82.5%, direction reversal, intense short squeeze outbreak
24-hour long liquidations $1,278,900 regain dominance, shorts $1,017,600
Liquidation scale grows nearly 25 times from 1 hour $92,600 to 24 hours $2,296,500
Last 12 hours contribute about 87% of daily liquidation volume, direction sharply switches from long liquidation → short squeeze → long liquidation
Longs ultimately win by a slight margin, both sides pay heavy prices
Summary in one sentence: $CL 24-hour long liquidations $1,278,900 accounting for 55.7% of total, direction sharply switched with shorts narrowly winning.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 29
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: collective anxiety at a critical market juncture—Fed uncertainty, tech giants' AI ledgers, and storage leaders' earnings cliff, intertwining into a highly tense end of July.
🏛️ Fed Decision Countdown: The Most Uncertain in Recent Years
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30, the Fed will announce its rate decision. Economists are highly unanimous—Reuters surveyed 104 forecasters all expecting no change, but rate futures market prices in a 30.5% chance of a hike.
This rare "expert-market" divergence stems from Fed Chair Waller's complete abandonment of forward guidance. Traders don't know what the Fed will do and hedge wildly—the size of futures positions linked to the benchmark rate has surged to a historic high. JPMorgan expects at least two hawkish dissent votes at this meeting—including Logan and Harker.
Core contradiction: June CPI has cooled significantly (YoY 3.5%), oil price surge is a supply shock not demand-driven, so rate hikes won't solve it; but Waller needs to establish "anti-inflation" credibility, and US-Iran conflict continues to push geopolitical risk premium. The result will be revealed early Thursday—holding steady but hawkish bias is the most mainstream expectation.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings Tonight: The "Triple Test" of AI Spending Mode
Tonight, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release earnings. Market focus is highly aligned: can massive AI capital expenditure translate into real revenue?
· Microsoft: Intelligent Cloud (including Azure) expected revenue $32.9B, Azure growth about 39%, slightly slower than last quarter's 40%.
· Meta: Market expects revenue about $60.2B, ad revenue expected at $59B. The key is the 2026 capex guidance raised to $125B-$145B, whether AI investment erodes ad profits.
· Amazon: AWS expected revenue about $40.6B, up 31.6% YoY. Capex soared over 76% YoY to $44.2B, AWS holds $244B contract backlog, but market worries about free cash flow turning negative.
Google and Tesla have already sounded alarms with their first-ever negative cash flow. Tonight's three earnings will jointly decide if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
📉 SK Hynix Earnings Record High but Below Expectations: Storage Stocks Volatile
SK Hynix released Q2 earnings today: revenue 79.32 trillion KRW, up 257% YoY; operating profit 60.54 trillion KRW, up 557% YoY; net profit 93.92 trillion KRW, soaring 1242% YoY. Operating margin reached 76%, first half cumulative revenue surpassed 100 trillion KRW.
However, revenue and operating profit both fell short of market expectations (expected 84 trillion and 64 trillion KRW). Reasons for the shortfall: high proportion of HBM sales, slower price increases, and long-term contracts locking prices.
After earnings release, SK Hynix US shares fell over 5% in after-hours, then staged a "V-shaped reversal" to close up; Korean shares opened high then fell over 10%. Since the June 22 peak, SK Hynix stock has dropped 46.9%. Record earnings still met with "voting with feet" shows market expectations for the storage chip supercycle are stretched to the limit—any flaw will be magnified.
💎 Summary
Three events share the same main line: the market is "taking the test" for the past two years of AI frenzy. Fed uncertainty, tech giants' AI ledgers, and storage leaders' earnings cliff together form the most tense narrative at the end of July 2026—when expectations are pushed to the extreme, any result less than "perfect" may trigger intense reactions.The combined market capitalization of the stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan has evaporated over $400 billion. The South Korean composite index KOSPI experienced an extreme reversal, opening with a 3% gain but then plunging sharply from the intraday high, with a maximum intraday drop exceeding 15%. It triggered circuit breakers for the second consecutive trading day, setting a market record for the first-ever consecutive circuit breakers. This panic sell-off continued to spread outward, with the Japanese stock market and Taiwan's chip and technology sectors simultaneously seeing massive capital outflows, weakening across the board. The root cause remains in the semiconductor sector, with leading memory stocks continuing to plunge. The market is reassessing the long-term profitability expectations of the AI industry chain, with capital concentrating on withdrawing from overvalued chip stocks, resulting in a cross-regional chain reaction of declines. $SNDK #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #美联储即将公布利率决议 The AI frenzy is fading, and South Korea has become the first domino to fall. The South Korean semiconductor sector was the first to face a sharp sell-off.
The 3x leveraged South Korea ETF KORU has dropped from about $64 at its June peak to $14, a cumulative decline of 78%.
The market worries that this may not just be a correction in the South Korean stock market, but an early signal that AI trading is starting to wane.
Facing huge losses among retail investors and public pressure, the South Korean government has "temporarily decided not to intervene," stating there is currently no need to activate the stabilization fund, and the stock market crash is not entirely the fault of leveraged ETFs.
The true market bottom is usually accompanied by more intense panic, increased trading volume, and a comprehensive surge in volatility.
Prices have already shown significant adjustment, but the "final drop" on the emotional level remains uncertain.
Leveraged funds are amplifying the downward pressure on the South Korean market. The biggest risk of this type of investment is not simply the index decline, but the long-term erosion caused by the daily rebalancing mechanism of leveraged ETFs. The large influx of leveraged funds during the AI rally is now becoming passive selling pressure in the market's downturn.After looking at Crossmint's case, I realized:
For companies doing stablecoin payments, the biggest hassle might not be whether the chain is fast enough.
Wallets, bank card deposits, fiat withdrawals, KYC, compliance, Gas, and transaction monitoring usually require integrating with several service providers.
If one link has a problem, the entire product gets stuck.
Crossmint now puts all these functions into one interface, so companies don't have to piece it together from scratch.
This makes much more sense than shouting about TPS for SOL again.
Ordinary companies don't want to study blockchain; they just want to launch their products quickly and avoid issues.
$SOL The first step in the bear market research project might be the process of elimination
deBridge team might be one of the most perceptive Web3 teams.
Starting in 2023 with the Solana ecosystem, developing cross-chain between Solana and EVM ecosystems in 2024~2025; developing AI tools in Q1 2026, focusing on cross-chain payments in Q2 2026...
They integrated with HyperLiquid and HyperEVM ecosystems before HyperLiquid became popular, and quickly supported Robinhood after its launch...
┈➤ Ecosystems suspected of lying dormant
At some point, deBridge stopped supporting several ecosystems, including:
◆ Stablecoin-dedicated chain — Plasma, TVL $609.7 million
◆ Public chain established in 2015 — Gnosis, TVL $99.61 million
◆ Deeply tied with Bybit — Mantle, TVL $7,812
◆ Creator of the POL consensus three-token model — Berachain, TVL $49.79 million
◆ High-speed parallel public chain — Sei, TVL $41.64 million
◆ Chain derived from Fantom — Sonic, TVL $14.14 million
◆ Self-developed chain for gaming and consumer use — Flow, TVL $1,087
◆ Consumer chain built by a large enterprise team — Abstract, TVL $10.16 million
Additionally, there are BOB and Neon, with TVL under $10 million.
These ecosystems that stopped being supported are likely those with very small cross-chain capital scale on deBridge.
┈➤ Ecosystems possibly still active
Besides mainstream public chains, deBridge still supports some relatively new public chains, including:
◆ Ethereum L2 — MegaETH, TVL $46.52 million
◆ Developed by MetaMask's parent company — Linea, TVL $27.83 million
◆ Popular parallel public chain — Monad, TVL $827 million
◆ Transitioned to AI training data — DATA (formerly Story), TVL $257,500.
Detailed comparison shows that #Linea and Monad ecosystems have relatively higher activity, with Linea having more contract deployments. Also, MetaMask's developer count and activity frequency are high.
#Monad performs better in TVL, active addresses, developer count, and token price increase. Both have relatively low estimated ratios, which is expected since the market fears high valuations; projects with higher market caps usually have lower ratios.FOMC Preview: Is No Rate Hike Definitely Good for the Stock Market? A Counterintuitive Logic
The July FOMC meeting will conclude tomorrow. According to interest rate swap market pricing as of July 28, traders estimate about a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged, and about a 30% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
The market usually interprets "no rate hike" as a short-term positive: policy rates not rising further seem to ease pressure on stocks somewhat.
This time, we need to look one step further.
If holding steady weakens market confidence in the Fed's anti-inflation resolve, the real yield curve may steepen again.
Short-term sentiment gets a buffer, but mid-term valuation pressure could rise. How no rate hike can increase valuation pressure: Since the start of this year, the real yield curve between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries has generally steepened.
The 10-year real yield has risen while the 2-year real yield has actually fallen. One reason is that inflation growth has outpaced changes in the 2-year nominal yield, causing short-term real rates to decline passively. Over the past month, the curve has flattened somewhat. The market has priced in more rate hike expectations, and the Fed has not explicitly denied this.
If the meeting ultimately results in no rate hike, trading logic may reverse again. If the market believes the Fed is not tough enough on inflation, short-term real yields may fall;
Meanwhile, rising inflation expectations will keep long-term real yields high or even push them higher. Divergent moves at both ends cause the curve to steepen again. This steepening does not come from stronger growth expectations. It reflects another concern: current inflation pressures may persist longer, requiring a higher policy cost in the future.
The stock market will be affected on two levels: one is the discount rate. Rising long-term real yields directly reduce the present value of future cash flows. Growth stocks relying on more distant earnings, especially tech and AI-related assets, are more sensitive to such changes. The other is policy risk premium. Once the market starts worrying that the central bank is lagging behind the inflation curve, investors will price in room for more aggressive tightening ahead. Even if there is no rate hike on the day, policy uncertainty may still lower overall risk appetite.
Historical comparisons are also worth noting. From 2020 to 2022, the steepening of the real yield curve exceeded that during the high inflation period of the late 1970s to early 1980s; during the same period, the stock market experienced significant valuation compression and increased volatility. This does not mean history will repeat exactly, but it shows that the curve shape cannot be understood simply as "rates not rising." What to watch after the decision: rate decisions are just the first layer of information. How the statement describes inflation and whether it reopens the possibility of further hikes will influence market judgment on the path ahead.
Waller's remarks at the press conference are equally important.
Since taking office, he has rarely given clear forward guidance proactively. If he remains restrained this time, the market may continue to price through the yield curve itself; if he significantly strengthens anti-inflation rhetoric, whether long-end pressure eases will be a direct test. Oil prices are another external variable. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues and Brent crude holds above $100 per barrel, supply shocks will make policy choices more difficult. Rate hikes cannot increase oil supply, but sustained high oil prices will feed into inflation data, forcing the Fed to respond.
Therefore, no rate hike can provide short-term sentiment relief but does not necessarily reduce mid-term pressure on the stock market. What is more worth watching is whether the decision can stabilize market confidence in the Fed's anti-inflation capability and how the real yield curve changes after the meeting. Short version:
$SNDK fell 14.25%, but it wasn't just SanDisk—the whole semiconductor sector sold off. Weak Asian chip stocks, AI spending concerns, and pre-earnings caution drove the decline. No major company-specific bad news yet; this looks like a sector-wide pullback before earnings. #DailyOrbit#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
📊 $SPCX 爆仓速览
24小时总爆仓$637.40万
多头爆仓$403.08万占总量63.2%
空头爆仓$234.32万，多头为空头的1.72倍
1小时多头爆仓$6.26万占57.4%，空头$4.65万，杀多初现但优势微弱
4小时空头爆仓$9.59万反超，占60%，方向逆转，逼空行情启动
12小时多头爆仓$120.33万重新夺回主导权，占87.1%，杀多行情猛烈爆发
24小时多头爆仓$403.08万，空头$234.32万
爆仓规模从1小时$10.91万到24小时$637.40万，增长超58倍
后12小时贡献全天约75%的爆仓量，方向从杀多→逼空→杀多切换，多头最终胜出
空头在12小时和24小时间遭到毁灭性清算
一句话总结：$SPCX 24小时多头爆仓$403.08万占总量63.2%，12小时起杀多行情猛烈爆发，空头完胜。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月29日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场在关键节点上的集体焦虑——美联储的不确定性、科技巨头的AI账本、存储龙头的业绩悬崖，三件事交织成一个高度紧绷的7月末。
🏛️ 美联储决议倒计时：近年来最不确定的一次
北京时间7月30日凌晨2:00，美联储将公布利率决议。经济学家预期高度一致——路透调查104位预测人士全部预计按兵不动，但利率期货市场却押注30.5%的加息概率。
这种罕见的“专家-市场”背离，根源在于美联储主席沃什上任后彻底抛弃了前瞻指引。交易员不知美联储会怎么做，只能疯狂对冲——与基准利率挂钩的期货头寸规模已飙升至历史新高。摩根大通预计本次会议可能至少出现两票鹰派反对票——包括洛根和哈马克。
核心矛盾：6月CPI已大幅降温（同比3.5%），油价暴涨是供给冲击而非需求驱动，加息解决不了；但沃什需要树立“抗通胀”公信力，且美伊冲突持续推高地缘风险溢价。结果将在周四凌晨揭晓——维持不变但偏鹰，是目前最主流的预期。
📊 微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷：AI烧钱模式的“三重考验”
今夜，微软、Meta、亚马逊将集中发布财报。市场关注焦点高度一致：巨额AI资本支出能否转化为真实收入。
· 微软：智能云（含Azure）预计营收329亿美元，Azure增速约39%，但较上季度的40%略有放缓。
· Meta：市场预期营收约602亿美元，广告收入预计达590亿美元。关键在于2026年资本支出指引已上调至1250亿-1450亿美元，AI投入是否侵蚀广告利润。
· 亚马逊：AWS预计营收约406亿美元，同比增长31.6%。资本支出同比飙升超76%至442亿美元，AWS虽手握2440亿美元合同 backlog，但市场担忧自由现金流转负。
谷歌和特斯拉此前已用史上首次负现金流敲响警钟。今夜三份财报将共同决定“AI叙事”还能否继续撑起科技股估值。
📉 海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期：存储股剧烈震荡
SK海力士今日公布Q2财报：营收79.32万亿韩元，同比增长257%；营业利润60.54万亿韩元，同比暴增557%；净利润93.92万亿韩元，同比飙升1242%。营业利润率高达76%，上半年累计营收首次突破100万亿韩元。
然而，营收和营业利润均低于市场预期（预期84万亿和64万亿韩元）。低于预期的原因有三：HBM销售占比过高、价格涨幅放缓、长期协议锁定了售价。
财报公布后，SK海力士美股盘后一度跌超5%，随后上演“V型反转”逆势收涨；韩股开盘冲高回落后跌超10%。自6月22日高点以来，SK海力士股价已累计下跌46.9%。业绩创纪录仍被“用脚投票”，说明市场对存储芯片超级周期的预期已经绷到了极致——任何瑕疵都会被放大。
💎 总结
三件事共享同一条主线：市场正在为过去两年的AI狂热“交答卷”。美联储的不确定性、科技巨头的AI账本、存储龙头的业绩悬崖，共同构成了2026年7月末最紧绷的叙事——当预期已被推到极致，任何低于“完美”的结果都可能引发剧烈反应。🚨 One of Bitcoin's biggest sellers may finally be running out of steam.
The latest miner data is starting to tell a different story.
On July 29, miner wallet balances fell to 1.193 million BTC, the lowest level in nearly a month.
But here's the important part:
The pace of selling is slowing.
Over the previous two weeks, miners reduced their holdings by roughly 5,000–8,000 BTC per week.
This week, that number dropped to just around 2,000 BTC.
That's a meaningful shift.
Mining, however, is still under pressure.
According to JPMorgan, the average cost to produce one Bitcoin is about $78,000, while BTC is trading near $64,000. That leaves a significant portion of miners operating below their estimated production cost.
At the same time, Bitcoin's network hashrate has continued to cool, falling from a peak of 986 EH/s in early July to roughly 903–948 EH/s today.
The Miner Position Index (MPI) remains near historical lows, and the Hash Ribbons indicator has yet to flash a capitulation signal. If miner stress continues, that signal could emerge in August.
For now, the takeaway is simple:
Miners are still selling—but they're selling less.
If that trend continues, one of Bitcoin's largest sources of selling pressure could begin to fade, giving the market a better foundation once demand returns.
When the biggest sellers start running out of coins, the next move often depends on who steps in to buy.
$BTC
#DailyOrbit #Bitcoin #Crypto #Mining #Hashrate
#DailyOrbit Nvidia at 20 times, Microsoft at 19, Meta at 13, but Apple at 37 times: Why are the valuations of the six US giants completely inverted? What's happening in the US stock market isn't that tech giants are getting cheaper, but that their business models are collectively "downgraded." Now, about 40% of the S&P 500's weight is concentrated in six companies. Except for Apple, the other five have forward valuations below the average levels of the past decade. Many people interpret it as: the giants have finally lost their value. But the market may be pricing in a deeper layer of change—the business models that once supported high valuations are disappearing. Over the past twenty years, Google controlled search portals, Meta controlled social attention, Amazon controlled e-commerce and cloud, Microsoft controlled enterprise software, Apple controlled mobile devices, and NVIDIA controlled accelerated computing. Though their businesses differ, they share the same thing: high gross margins, strong pricing power, asset-light expansion, and monopoly profits that few can challenge. In the past, the market was willing to pay high valuations, buying not just growth, but that these profits could last for a long time. AI has changed all of this. Today, these companies compete for the same batch of enterprise customers, buy the same GPUs, compete for the same power, data centers, and engineers, and then sell similar models, cloud services, and agents to the same market. The monopolists who had previously held their own territories were now being forced into an arms race that required continuous burning of money. This is the real reason for the decline in valuation. The market is not worried about not making money next year, but about the capital returns of these companiesCrypto Daily · Wednesday, July 29, 2026
1. Today's summary in one sentence
BTC is hovering around $63,800, with mainstream coins rising slightly, but the sharp drop in Korean semiconductor stocks dragged sentiment down, resulting in a split market today.
2. Market thermometer
Neutral and hollow
BTC bulls have net losses exceeding 72 million; bulls are losing money, bears are making money, holding on but struggling.
3. Today's core market highlights
BTC：$63,792 | +0.89% | It fell nearly 2% over the week, but today it rebounded slightly, with average volume. There is obvious resistance above $64,000, so don't be too optimistic
ETH：$1,907 | +1.66% | It performed slightly better than BTC, but the $1,900 mark has been worn down for several days and still hasn't held on
Today's strongest sector: Semiconductor short direction | SOXS (3x Short Semiconductor ETF)| +14.2%~+19.2%
Today's weakest sector: South Korea Technology/Semiconductors | SK Hynix related (SKHY/SKHX)| 24h -6.7% ~ -9.1%
4. The most important news of the day
[SK Hynix's Financial Report Crashes, Operating Profit Far Below Expectations]
[Title] SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW, compared to the expected 64.22 trillion KRW, but sales also fell short of targets
[Impact] In the short term, Korean semiconductor-related tokens (SKHY, SKHX, KORU) were directly suppressed, falling by 7%-9%; The mid-term narrative for the entire semiconductor/AI chip market is a cooling signal, and NVDA-related tokens should also be watched
[My Judgment] I think the market reaction is basically reasonable, and even hasn't fully priced it in yet—although net profit exceeded expectations (93 trillion vs. expected 54 trillion), that's the result of financial treatment. The real operating situation is that both operating profit and sales are below expectations. This drop was expected, not an overreaction
[Tensions in Iran's Strait of Hormuz escalate, U.S. officials publicly take a tough stance]
[Title] U.S. Officials Say Iran Has Excessive Demands on the Strait of Hormuz, and the International Community Should Reject Them
[Impact] Short-term support for crude oil prices; BRENTOIL-related positions are worth watching; The crypto market is currently not reacting much to this news, but if the situation escalates further, risk aversion will suppress risk assets
[My Judgment] The fact that the market hasn't moved much means people haven't taken it seriously yet. I tend to believe this is a low-probability, high-impact tail risk. There's no need to rush now, but it's worth keeping in mind
[China urges the US to stop smearing Chinese tech institutions]
[Title] China Lodges Negotiations with the U.S. Regarding the Smear of Technology Institutions
[Impact] Ongoing US-China tech friction has led to short-term bearish sentiment in the tech sector, but such diplomatic statements have limited direct impact on the crypto market
[My Judgment] This news itself is not new, nor has the market reacted. I am writing it because background noise is accumulating—the long-term narrative of the China-US tech rivalry still exists, not today's trading signal
5. Signals to Watch Today
Signal One
Signal: BTC long positions have a net loss of over $72 million, while short positions have a profit of $36 million; Both bulls and bears on ETH are losing money, with a net loss of 56 million
Why it's worth watching: The bulls are losing money and haven't escaped, which means some people are still holding on. If these people can't hold on, the downtrend will be faster
Tracking cycle: Short-term
Signal two
Signal: SOXS (3x short semiconductor ETF token) rose over 19% in 24 hours, with OI expanding in tandem
Why it's worth watching: Some are increasing their short positions in semiconductors. Combined with SK Hynix's earnings, bearish sentiment in this direction is being concentrated, so NVDA tokens should be closely watched
Tracking cycle: Short-term
Signal three
Signal: HYPE's local currency fell -8.34% over 7 days, the steepest drop among mainstream coins
Why it's worth watching: HYPE is a platform token, and its decline indicates weakening trading activity or confidence on Hyperliquid. Bulls on this platform are also losing money overall, so watch this
Tracking cycle: Mid-term
6. Preview of tomorrow's key events
📅 [Tonight/Early tomorrow morning] Federal Reserve July FOMC meeting results to be announced (Beijing time, July 30, 2:00 AM)
→ Expected impact: Neutral to bullish, market generally expects to hold steady, but Powell's rhetoric at the press conference is key—if a rate cut in September is hinted at, BTC could see a rally; If the hawkish trend continues, the $63,000 support is worth testing
📅 [Recent Continue] Korean tech stock earnings season
→ Expected impact: Bearish, SK hynix has already collapsed, and if Samsung and other companies also report poorly, Korean tech-related tokens will continue to come under pressure
📅 [Launched Today] REZ has launched contracts on Aster
→ Expected Impact: Neutral, small-cap coins with a market cap of 24 million. The Shanghai Exchange may experience short-term fluctuations and is not the main theme
7. Maobidao's views today
To be honest, I felt a bit stifled watching today's plate. BTC is neither rising nor falling, Korean semiconductor tokens are plummeting, bulls are generally losing money, but there is still no clear direction. Tonight, the FOMC is the biggest variable, and what is said is more important than the data itself. My own situation is: I'm holding positions without moving and waiting for the meeting results to come out. Cognition can never make money beyond cognition; forcing operations in today's situation is most likely paying tuition to the market.Wall Street is looking to the future, but traders are only focused on tonight
If you've only been watching Bitcoin's price recently, you might overlook a bigger shift: the market's focus has started to shift.
On one hand, Wall Street financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have publicly supported the US CLARITY Act, hoping to establish a clear crypto regulatory framework as soon as possible. This shows that institutions are no longer obsessed with "whether to enter the crypto market," but are instead thinking about "how to play in the next decade." The clearer the regulation, the more confident they are in investing.
On the other side, all eyes in the market are focused on tonight's Federal Reserve policy meeting. Most people expect rates to remain unchanged, but Citadel bets on a possible rate hike. Who is right and who is wrong will be revealed in a few hours. If an unexpected event occurs, short-term market fluctuations are highly likely to occur; If the results meet expectations, funds may refocus on the crypto market itself.
There was another detail that left a deep impression on me. South Korean chip stocks suffered a sharp drop yesterday, and according to previous logic, Bitcoin would most likely fall as well. But this time, BTC not only avoided being dragged down, it actually approached $64,000 again. This indicates a shift in the market—more and more funds are starting to treat Bitcoin as an independent asset, rather than a "follower" of traditional risk assets.
My feeling is that the current market is a bit like the calm before the storm. In the short term, the Fed will still be affected, but what truly determines the next few years are regulatory implementation and continued institutional capital inflows. Prices fluctuate daily, but trends often form slowly within these seemingly insignificant news stories.
Do you think Bitcoin's resistance this time is due to institutional funds growing stronger, or is it just a brief calm before the Fed meeting? Feel free to share your thoughts.On July 28, 2026, Apple's intraday stock price hit $342.89, with its total market value surpassing $5 trillion in one go. After a year, it once again overtook Nvidia and reclaimed the top spot among global listed companies by market value. Amid the industry-wide craze to invest in cloud computing and develop its own trillion-yuan AI large models, Apple has taken a path completely against industry consensus: no heavy investment in cloud computing, no burning money, self-developed general large models, and shifting all cost pressures onto end consumers, ultimately achieving sustained cash flow growth and becoming the financially healthiest company recognized in the capital market's history. 1. Rejecting Heavy Asset Competition: Never Entering the Independent Cloud Computing Track Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta invest hundreds of billions of dollars annually in building their own data centers and expanding public cloud businesses. Cloud computing is the core foundation of their AI strategy and the main destination for massive capital expenditures. But Apple has completely abandoned this capital-heavy approach, never developing its own cloud computing services on a large scale or selling them externally. 1. Outsourcing all computing power, no massive data centers. Apple iCloud, Siri, and Apple Intelligence rent all cloud computing power from Google Cloud and AWS third-party infrastructure, retaining only a very small private cloud to process private data, completely avoiding the ongoing and massive investments in data center construction, electricity, and operations. 2. Financial logic prioritizes to avoid depreciation loss risks. Cloud providers' data centers and GPUs are long-term fixed assets, incurring huge depreciation annually; If AI demand falls short of expectations, it is very likely that free cash flow will turn negative. AppleInteresting divergence in the staking data. While Ethereum's exit queue sits empty, Hyperliquid is seeing the opposite, a wave of HYPE moving into its multi-day unstaking queue. Two of the year's strongest crypto-native tokens, sending opposite conviction signals from their stakers at the same moment.
Worth reading carefully, not reflexively. Unstaking isn't automatically bearish, it can be rotation, unlock schedules, or repositioning after a big run, and HYPE has had an enormous one. But a rising unstake queue does mean more potential float hitting the market and thinner locked-in conviction, the opposite of ETH's setup. When holders start heading for the exit even at a slashable delay, I pay attention to why. Watching whether it's profit-taking or a change of heart.
Just my read, not advice.
#HYPEUnstakingWave #OKXOrbitIn the early morning of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. This may be one of the most divisive in recent years—the market expectation for a rate hike versus a pause is unusually split at about 70/30. The suspense does not come from the data but from the new chairman Warsh—a Fed leader who refuses to "spoiler".
📊 The clear "no rate hike" card: the data window has opened
There are solid reasons to hold steady. June CPI was fully below expectations, nonfarm payrolls were weaker than expected and previous values were revised down, and oil prices fell before the meeting. In a Reuters survey, all 104 economists expected no change in rates. It is logically difficult to justify a rate hike during a window of improving data.
🚨 The hidden "rate hike" card: a one-third probability not to be ignored
However, the interest rate futures market prices in about a 30% chance of a rate hike, and this rare pricing divergence itself is worth caution.
The key lies with two factors: Chairman Warsh (Kevin Warsh) and geopolitics.
· "Uncertainty creator" Warsh: After taking office, he abolished forward guidance and refuses to give the market any directional hints. Goldman Sachs points out that the market knows almost nothing about his policy stance. Some institutions bet he might establish personal credibility through a surprise rate hike. Citadel Securities explicitly bets on a 25 basis point hike tonight.
· Geopolitics as a "black swan": Previous US-Iran conflicts pushed Brent crude oil to touch the $100 mark, reigniting fears of runaway inflation.
👀 Three key points: more important than the rate hike itself
Regardless of whether there is a hike, the highlights of this meeting are actually:
1. Number of dissenting votes: Even if rates remain unchanged, if there are 2 to 4 dissenting votes in favor of a hike (such as from hawkish Logan and Hammack), it will be seen as a strong hawkish signal.
2. What Warsh says: If no hike, how will he explain missing the chance to "deliver on promises"? If a hike, will he characterize it as a one-time "point brake" or the start of consecutive hikes? This will determine the market’s long-term interpretation.
3. Changes in statement wording: Warsh has greatly simplified the statement and removed forward guidance; any slight adjustment tonight will hint at the future policy path.
💎 Summary: volatility is inevitable regardless of outcome
The current situation is delicate: economists unanimously expect a pause, but market pricing implies a very high tail risk of a rate hike.
This is more like a game about the new chairman’s credibility. If the choice tonight is to hold steady but with hawkish wording, the market reaction could be more intense than a mild rate hike. Investors need to focus not only on the interest rate numbers themselves but also on the two "dissenting votes" behind them and every word Warsh utters.South Korea has triggered circuit breakers again, this is not a joke
South Korea has triggered circuit breakers 35 times this year, breaking the 2008 record.
Historical pattern: In 1997, 2000, 2008, and 2020, during every major crisis, South Korea was the first to fall. It's not a coincidence; South Korea is too "open" — once foreign capital withdraws, South Korea is hit first.
But South Korea is not the cause, it's a symptom. The real variable lies in the U.S. The key is whether the Federal Reserve still has ammunition.
Ordinary people shouldn't try to predict crises, just manage their positions:
• 60% core positions: S&P 500 + Nasdaq 100, hold long-term without moving
• 40% cash: add positions in batches when prices drop 15%, 30%, 40%
History proves that after every crisis, the indexes reach new highs. I'm not afraid of drops, but afraid of having no money to add positions after a drop, and even more afraid of panic selling.
South Korea's circuit breaker is a warning bell, not a death knell. Hold your chips, keep your ammunition.
The real winners are not those who predict crises, but those who can add positions during crises.
Let's encourage each other.
#SouthKoreaCircuitBreaker #PositionManagement #DollarCostAveraging #OKXPlanet 这两天，存储板块迎来了一场剧烈震荡。 一边是长鑫科技上市首日暴涨，市值冲上3万亿元；另一边，三星电子、SK海力士、闪迪等存储巨头股价集体下挫，市场情绪明显降温。 很多人把这看成一次普通的板块调整，但背后其实反映的是全球存储产业格局正在发生变化。 过去几年，DRAM市场基本被三星、SK海力士、美光掌控，尤其是在AI浪潮推动下，HBM、高端内存需求爆发，存储厂商迎来了一轮超级周期。 但长鑫科技的上市，让市场第一次更加直观地看到：中国存储厂商正在进入全球竞争牌桌。 资本市场最敏感的地方就在这里。 长鑫上涨，并不代表三星、SK海力士马上失去优势，但投资者开始重新计算一个问题： 如果未来中国厂商持续扩大产能，全球存储行业的利润空间会不会被重新分配？ 这也是近期韩国存储股承压的重要原因。 不过，市场的下跌也有一部分是前期上涨后的获利回吐。 今年AI产业链热度很高，存储相关股票此前已经积累了大量涨幅。当资金发现新的变量出现时，短线资金选择落袋为安，也是很正常的市场反应。 所以现在看到存储股大跌，不一定代表行业逻辑彻底结束。 AI数据中心建设、高端存储需求增长这些长期趋势依然存在，只是短期估值过高之后#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
📊 $KAITO Liquidation Overview
24-hour total liquidation $1,151,700
Short liquidations $658,000 accounting for 57.1% of total
Long liquidations $493,700, shorts are 1.33 times longs
1-hour short liquidations $7,101.73 accounting for 82.8%, short squeeze market triggered
4-hour long liquidations $84,100 overtaking, accounting for 59.3%, direction reversal, initial long liquidation market appears
12-hour short liquidations $340,400 reversed again, accounting for 65.6%, intense short squeeze outbreak
24-hour short liquidations $658,000, long liquidations $493,700
Liquidation scale grew from $8,573 in 1 hour to $1,151,700 in 24 hours, an increase of over 134 times
The last 12 hours contributed about 55% of the daily liquidation volume, direction repeatedly switched from short squeeze → long liquidation → short squeeze
Shorts were heavily hit after 12 hours but ultimately won by a slight margin
In summary: $KAITO 24-hour short liquidations $658,000 won with 57.1%, longs narrowly won after repeated tug-of-war.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 29
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: collective anxiety at a critical market juncture—Fed uncertainty, tech giants' AI ledgers, and storage leaders' earnings cliff, three intertwined issues creating a highly tense end of July.
🏛️ Fed Decision Countdown: The Most Uncertain in Recent Years
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30, the Fed will announce its rate decision. Economists are highly unanimous—Reuters surveyed 104 forecasters all expecting no change, but rate futures market bets a 30.5% chance of a hike.
This rare "expert-market" divergence stems from Fed Chair Waller abandoning forward guidance. Traders don’t know what the Fed will do and hedge wildly—the size of futures positions linked to the benchmark rate has surged to a historic high. JPMorgan expects at least two hawkish dissent votes at this meeting—including Logan and Harker.
Core contradiction: June CPI cooled significantly (YoY 3.5%), oil price surge is supply shock not demand-driven, rate hikes can’t fix it; but Waller needs to establish "anti-inflation" credibility, and US-Iran conflict continues to push geopolitical risk premium. The result will be revealed early Thursday—holding steady but hawkish tilt is the most mainstream expectation.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings Tonight: The "Triple Test" of AI Spending Mode
Tonight, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release earnings. Market focus is unified: can massive AI capital expenditure convert into real revenue?
· Microsoft: Intelligent Cloud (including Azure) expected revenue $32.9B, Azure growth about 39%, slightly slower than last quarter’s 40%.
· Meta: Market expects revenue about $60.2B, ad revenue expected at $59B. Key is 2026 capex guidance raised to $125B-$145B, whether AI investment erodes ad profits.
· Amazon: AWS expected revenue about $40.6B, up 31.6% YoY. Capex soared over 76% YoY to $44.2B, AWS holds $244B contract backlog, but market worries about free cash flow turning negative.
Google and Tesla have already sounded alarms with first-ever negative cash flow. Tonight’s three earnings will jointly decide if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
📉 SK Hynix Earnings Record High but Below Expectations: Storage Stocks Volatile
SK Hynix released Q2 earnings today: revenue 79.32 trillion KRW, up 257% YoY; operating profit 60.54 trillion KRW, up 557% YoY; net profit 93.92 trillion KRW, up 1242% YoY. Operating margin reached 76%, first half cumulative revenue surpassed 100 trillion KRW.
However, revenue and operating profit both below market expectations (expected 84 trillion and 64 trillion KRW). Reasons for shortfall: too high HBM sales proportion, price increase slowing, long-term contracts locking prices.
After earnings release, SK Hynix US shares fell over 5% in after-hours, then staged a "V-shaped reversal" to close up; Korean shares opened high then fell over 10%. Since June 22 peak, SK Hynix stock has dropped 46.9%. Record earnings still met with "voting with feet," indicating market expectations for storage chip supercycle are stretched to the limit—any flaw will be magnified.
💎 Summary
Three issues share the same main line: the market is "taking the test" for the past two years of AI frenzy. Fed uncertainty, tech giants’ AI ledgers, and storage leaders’ earnings cliff together form the most tense narrative at the end of July 2026—when expectations are pushed to the extreme, any result less than "perfect" may trigger intense reactions.This morning, I saw that Apple has returned to the top spot in global market value. It's quite interesting: the company that spent the least lavishly on AI this year actually outperformed 💁🏻 the hottest AI company
#苹果公司市值重回全球首位, surpassing Nvidia
Apple's market value briefly broke through $5 trillion intraday, closing near $4.98 trillion; Nvidia's stock price was about $4.78 trillion, with a cumulative rise of about 25%, reclaiming its position as the world's most valuable company
Big companies build data centers, borrow money, buy chips for AI, and money flows 💦 out like a faucet turned on
Apple's approach is quite restrained; instead of following others in building data centers, it prefers to cooperate with external partners like Google while maintaining its own cash flow
Not long ago, people joked that its AI was slow—if it were a bit slower, at least it still had money in its account.
♻️ So the sentiment behind Apple's return to the top spot is clear:
The market is shifting from "who spends the most money" to "who spends the most money."
For retail investors, being number one in market value doesn't mean Apple can rise much more soon
🔎 A multi-dimensional perspective:
Can iPhone sales continue to grow?
Can AI features drive phone upgrades?
Apple's low investment is due to high efficiency, or is it truly lagging behind?
Users who trade OKX tokenized stocks can also compare the trading volume, spreads, and post-earnings volatility of $XAAPL and $XNVDA ETFsCoinbase recently announced its post-quantum cryptography preparation plan: upgrading the key management system, streamlining internal cryptographic components, and will discuss migration plans with Bitcoin developers, cryptographers, and researchers in Stanford in August. I'm dizzy—has Bitcoin already been cracked by quantum computing? No. The official original statement clearly states that the threat is not imminent; the real uncertainty is the timing. The industry is preparing now because changing cryptosystems is not just an upgrade: wallets, exchanges, custodial systems, and decentralized protocols all need to be coordinated, and millions of users may need to migrate addresses or signature methods. This type of risk is most prone to two extremes: one is the panic of "the private key will expire tomorrow," and the other is the neglect of "we'll talk decades later." A more reasonable approach is to treat it as a long-term infrastructure project. In the short term, there's no need to be intimidated by quantum titles, but progress in post-quantum solutions, migration tools, and community consensus is likely to gradually become a new metric for measuring the long-term security readiness of public chains. This is for sharing technical and security knowledge only and does not constitute investment advice.#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion
Recently, BTC and the Nasdaq have shown clear divergence, with rolling correlation continuing to decline, and many believe Bitcoin is emerging from an independent rally. Let me share my true view: short-term decoupling is a temporary phenomenon and cannot be considered complete structural independence.
Let's first discuss the two layers of reasons for decoupling:
1. Capital divergence. This round of US stock gains is driven by the performance of AI giants, making it a fundamentally bullish market for individual stocks; The crypto market is more influenced by on-chain tokens, regulatory bills, and treasury transactions, and the two capital logics are no longer synchronized.
2. Market pricing focus shifts. Nasdaq traders expect earnings, BTC is competing with inflation, US dollar liquidity, and local industry news, with short-term drivers misaligned, naturally leading to divergent trends.
But why was it judged to be a false impression with such a high probability?
History has repeatedly proven: once an extreme macro shock occurs (Fed decision, sharp dollar volatility, global risk panic), correlations quickly recover. Both remain part of the risk asset pool, with their underlying layers constrained by dollar liquidity.
Simply put: a volatile market tends to decouple, while major trend trends will still resonate in sync.
Don't simply ignore the Nasdaq's trend, and don't rely solely on "decoupling" for one-sided bets. During the consolidation phase, prioritize native crypto news; Once macro waves hit, cross-market synergy effects will return.
Do you think this round of correlation decline can be sustained long-term?Microsoft and Meta will release their earnings reports tonight (July 29) after the U.S. market closes, followed by Amazon tomorrow (July 30) after the close.
Microsoft (MSFT) — Fiscal Year 2026 Q4:
· Expected revenue around $87.6-87.7 billion, approximately 15% year-over-year growth
· Expected earnings per share around $4.22-4.24
· Key focus: Azure cloud growth rate (market closely watching the 40% threshold), actual returns on $190 billion annual capital expenditure
Meta (META) — 2026 Q2:
· Expected revenue around $60.0-60.2 billion, approximately 26% year-over-year growth
· Expected earnings per share around $7.19-7.22
· Key focus: resilience of advertising business and AI capital expenditure guidance
Amazon (AMZN) — 2026 Q2 (tomorrow night):
· Expected revenue around $196.4 billion, 17% year-over-year growth; expected earnings per share $1.82
· Key focus: whether AWS growth can maintain above 31%, and whether capital expenditure will be raised to $210 billion
---
⚠️ Why is this earnings report important for BTC?
Google’s "lesson learned": Two weeks ago, Alphabet’s after-hours stock dropped 7% due to raising capital expenditure to $205 billion and free cash flow turning negative, dragging down Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft collectively. Market logic has shifted from "AI investment is positive" to "scrutinizing return efficiency."
The combined AI capital expenditure of the four giants Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple is expected to reach $725-730 billion in 2026. If Microsoft or Meta’s capital expenditure guidance tonight exceeds expectations and free cash flow is pressured, it could trigger a new round of tech stock sell-off, further dragging down the crypto market.
Recently, the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks (especially the AI sector) has significantly increased. However, a notable positive signal is that in the past 7 days, there have been two instances where crypto assets have withstood sharp AI-driven sell-offs. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储即将公布利率决议 #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion
Bitcoin and Nasdaq correlation plummet: True independence, or a statistical illusion? This morning, I suddenly realized something during the trading session:
In April 2026, the BTC–Nasdaq 30-day rolling correlation coefficient surged to 0.96, almost matching the rise and fall—Bitcoin is essentially a "high-beta tech stock."
But by early June, the number had dropped to nearly zero; on July 22, the Nasdaq reading under the 90-day window even reached -0.33, gold +0.01, long-term bonds -0.72, and BTC itself remained in a "mixed regime."
The scene on July 24th was even more surreal:
The "magnificent seven" of U.S. stocks lost nearly $800 billion, the Nasdaq closed lower, while BTC only hovered around 65,000 yuan, down <1% for the day, with the weekly chart still in the red.
So, is it the "digital gold awakening" or a "fake decoupling"?
To me, it looks more like three forces stacked together:
1. Splitting up on the funding side
AI semiconductors have absorbed risk appetite, BTC ETFs saw record net outflows in June. Institutions are not increasing holdings as tech stocks but as independent rebalancing positions.
2. Pricing anchors are changing
As correlation declines, BTC's linkage with global M2/long-term bond yields is rising—it hasn't become gold, nor continues to be Nasdaq leverage, but is drifting toward "macro liquidity assets."
3. Noise disturbances on weekends
BTC 24-hour trading, Nasdaq open for only five days, weekend volatility is all crammed into Monday's candlestick. The rolling correlation coefficient itself is eaten by the calendar, so a short-term drop to zero doesn't mean the structure is completely broken.
My judgment: it's not completely independent, nor purely an illusion, but a conditional decoupling—the Nasdaq continues to soar due to AI profits→ BTC may not necessarily follow the rally (it has already happened);
But if the Nasdaq crashes due to liquidity crisis, ETF chain redemptions→ the big blink will still be hit, just a few candlesticks behind.
Don't read the correlation coefficient as a safety pad; it just tells you: don't use Nasdaq as a remote control for BTC anymore.7 月 29 日，全球存储芯片龙头 SK 海力士发布第二财季财报，数据显示公司营业利润同比大涨 557%，亮眼业绩之下，股价却迎来惊天大跌。当日盘中一度暴跌 19%，创下上市以来最大单日跌幅纪录。 业绩大幅增长为何遭遇资金疯狂抛售？核心在于市场预期落空。虽然盈利同比大幅攀升，但最终业绩不及机构此前预期。与此同时，SK 海力士官宣，本年度资本支出至少维持 310 亿美元，持续加码扩产。叠加市场担忧全球 AI 领域出现产能过度投资，多重利空集中发酵，引发资金大规模出逃。 SK 海力士的暴跌直接引爆韩国股市。SK 海力士与三星电子两大半导体巨头在韩国 KOSPI 指数权重合计超 50%，指数高度依赖芯片板块。受个股拖累，KOSPI 连续第二个交易日触发熔断，盘中一度大跌近 13%，两个交易日累计跌幅约 20%。市场预测，本月 KOSPI 指数跌幅或将创出大约 35% 的历史纪录。 市场恐慌情绪快速蔓延，韩国散户投资风向发生根本性反转。截至 29 日午盘，韩国散户净卖出规模达 1.9 万亿韩元 KOSPI 成分股。对比此前市场回调阶段散户逢低抄底的操作，本次集体离场减仓，加剧市场震荡。 DS Post-00s richest Vida has made a move
Remember, Vida usually only acts when the market is in utter despair
This time he sold $7 million worth of storage sector PUTs in one go, betting that storage prices will drop another 40% in a month
📌 If it doesn’t drop, he earns $420,000 "interest" for free; if it does drop, he buys the stocks he already favors at a bargain price
The storage chip sector has recently plummeted, and the market is in panic. When panic hits, everyone rushes to buy insurance (PUTs), driving insurance premiums sky-high. Vida steps in at this moment as the insurer, selling insurance when others are most fearful
So at the moment of the deal, $422,000 cash goes directly into his account, no matter what happens later, this money is his
There are three possible outcomes for this trade
Most likely outcome: The stock price doesn’t fall to the agreed strike price, all insurance expires worthless. He does nothing and nets $422,000, equivalent to earning a down payment for a house in 30 days
Middle outcome: For example, if MU falls below $660, he must buy 3,000 shares of MU at $660, spending about $1.98 million. But he already collected $90,000 in premiums, so the actual cost per share is only $627. He already likes MU and thinks this price is a bargain
Worst outcome: All contracts are exercised, and he has to spend $6.63 million to buy a large amount of stock. But this requires MU to fall below $400 and SNDK below $360 simultaneously, meaning the entire storage industry collapses, which is very unlikely
Why set a high strike price instead of selling near market price?
He gave an example: selling 15 MU $660 PUTs brings in $47,000 immediately. He deliberately sets a price higher than market to wait for the most panicked buyers rushing for insurance. He’d rather sell fewer contracts but ensure each premium is fat. It took 21 transactions to complete 248 contracts, like slowly fishing, not a quick all-in
Why dare to do this?
Two premises: First, he judges the storage sector’s decline is driven by sentiment, not fundamentals collapsing; AI demand for storage hasn’t changed, only prices are discounted. Second, he has enough money to withstand the worst case—even if all are exercised and he must pay $6.63 million, he can handle it. Without these two conditions, this move would be playing with fire#美联储即将公布利率决议
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
📊 $HYPE Liquidation Overview
24-hour total liquidation $5.1956 million
Long liquidations $4.9148 million, accounting for 94.6% of total
Short liquidations only $280,800, longs are 17.5 times shorts
1-hour long liquidations $59,700, accounting for 99.6%, shorts only $221.83, extreme long liquidation at open
4-hour short liquidations $78,800 surpass longs, accounting for 54.2%, direction reversal, short squeeze briefly triggered
12-hour long liquidations $1.733 million regain dominance, accounting for 92.7%, intense long liquidation outbreak
24-hour long liquidations $4.9148 million, shorts only $280,800
Liquidation scale grew over 86 times from $60,000 in 1 hour to $5.1956 million in 24 hours
Last 12 hours contributed about 85% of daily liquidation volume, direction shifted from short squeeze to escalating long liquidation
Shorts briefly dominated in 4 hours but were completely crushed afterward
In summary: $HYPE 24-hour long liquidations $4.9148 million account for 94.6% of total, intense long liquidation outbreak started from 12 hours, shorts completely defeated.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 29
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: collective anxiety at a critical market juncture—Fed uncertainty, tech giants' AI ledgers, and storage leaders' earnings cliff, intertwining into a highly tense late July.
🏛️ Fed Decision Countdown: The Most Uncertain in Recent Years
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30, the Fed will announce its rate decision. Economists are highly unanimous—104 surveyed by Reuters all expect no change, but rate futures market prices in a 30.5% chance of a hike.
This rare "expert-market" divergence stems from Fed Chair Waller abandoning forward guidance. Traders don’t know what the Fed will do and hedge aggressively—futures positions linked to the benchmark rate have surged to historic highs. JPMorgan expects at least two hawkish dissent votes at this meeting—including Logan and Harker.
Core contradiction: June CPI cooled significantly (3.5% YoY), oil price surge is supply shock not demand-driven, so rate hikes won’t solve it; but Waller needs to establish "anti-inflation" credibility, and ongoing US-Iran conflict pushes geopolitical risk premium higher. The result will be revealed early Thursday—holding steady but hawkish tilt is the mainstream expectation.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings Tonight: The "Triple Test" of AI Spending
Tonight, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release earnings. Market focus is unified: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue?
· Microsoft: Intelligent Cloud (including Azure) expected revenue $32.9 billion, Azure growth about 39%, slightly slower than last quarter’s 40%.
· Meta: Market expects revenue about $60.2 billion, ad revenue about $59 billion. Key is 2026 capex guidance raised to $125-145 billion, whether AI investment erodes ad profits.
· Amazon: AWS expected revenue about $40.6 billion, up 31.6% YoY. Capex soared over 76% YoY to $44.2 billion, AWS holds $244 billion contract backlog, but market worries about negative free cash flow.
Google and Tesla previously sounded alarms with first-ever negative cash flow. Tonight’s three earnings will jointly decide if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
📉 SK Hynix Records Earnings but Misses Expectations: Storage Stocks Volatile
SK Hynix released Q2 earnings today: revenue 79.32 trillion KRW, up 257% YoY; operating profit 60.54 trillion KRW, up 557% YoY; net profit 93.92 trillion KRW, up 1242% YoY. Operating margin reached 76%, first half revenue exceeded 100 trillion KRW.
However, revenue and operating profit both below market expectations (expected 84 trillion and 64 trillion KRW). Reasons for miss: high HBM sales proportion, price increase slowdown, long-term contracts locking prices.
After earnings release, SK Hynix US shares fell over 5% in after-hours, then staged a "V-shaped reversal" to close higher; Korean shares opened high then dropped over 10%. Since June 22 peak, SK Hynix stock has dropped 46.9%. Record earnings still met with "voting with feet," indicating market expectations for storage chip supercycle are stretched to the limit—any flaw will be magnified.
💎 Summary
Three events share the same main line: the market is "grading" the past two years of AI frenzy. Fed uncertainty, tech giants’ AI ledgers, and storage leaders’ earnings cliff together form the most tense narrative of late July 2026—when expectations are pushed to the extreme, any result less than "perfect" may trigger violent reactions.Intense internal divergence within the meme sector: only 8 established coins maintained price resilience, while the remaining 92 altcoins experienced sustained capital losses. Has the strength and weakness between BTC, ETH, and altcoins shifted from sector rotation to structural stratification? On the factual level: As of 11:47 Beijing time on July 28, 2026, only 8 high-consensus established meme coins maintained strong price resilience during market corrections, including SHIB, DOGE, KAITO, SOON, ALLO, ZEC, XAU, and others; The remaining 92 coins such as LAB, BEAT, WLD, UB, ZAMA, HYPE, XRP, ADA, ONDO, FIL, LINK, and most new meme coins are facing ongoing capital outflows and liquidation pressures. As a historical meme leader, SHIB's downward trend is controllable, and long-term community consensus has formed a bottom support structure. The current low-level consolidation is a long-term bottoming process, waiting for catalysts to restart the uptrend. Structural changes: The market is repricing the internal quality differentiation within the meme sector. Established high-consensus coins (SHIB, DOGE, etc.) exhibit BTC-like "resistance to decline - low volatility" characteristics, while newly issued and near-new coins exhibit "high volatility - high liquidity loss" characteristics similar to counterfeits. This means that funds are not simply withdrawing from memes, but are concentrating from low-consensus, weak-cyclical coins to high-consensus, long-cycle coinsThe SEC says "it passes," the banks say "fix it," Thune says "there aren't enough votes"—who exactly are they listening to?
134 banking tycoons jointly wrote a letter, the SEC chairman appeared on CNBC to call for "optimism," but the Senate majority leader said "the votes were insufficient"......
The same bill, three people have three versions of it.
With less than two weeks left until the August 7 recess deadline for the CLARITY Act, all the experts have started to take sides.
Let me start with the conclusion: I hit 35%.
Read on.
First, let's talk about what the bank is doing.
On July 13, the American Bankers Association (ABA), the Independent Community Bankers Association (ICBA), and bankers of 76 states jointly wrote letters to Senate Majority Leader Thune and Minority Leader Schumer.
134 senior bank executives followed up.
There is only one demand: to revoke Section 10404 of the CLARITY Act.
What are they worried about? Worried that stablecoins might pay interest.
According to current terms, stablecoin issuers can use terms like "rewards" or "incentives" to give holders "interest-like" returns—sounds like interest, looks like interest, and feels like interest, but legally it's not called interest.
The bank said: You're exploiting a loophole.
They did the math—if stablecoins could pay interest, bank deposits could lose $1.3 trillion, and community bank lending capacity would decrease by $850 billion.
What does 850 billion mean? How many loans does American community banks have in total?
So banks are shouting: Don't let stablecoins become substitutes for deposits.
Now let's look at the SEC.
On July 27, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins appeared on CNBC and said something that excited the entire crypto community:
"I am optimistic that Congress will pass the CLARITY Act."
He also said the SEC is fully committed to providing technical assistance, answering questions, and helping with drafting.
The marquee also shows that last week the bill removed "key ethical barriers."
Atkins' statement stands in stark contrast to his predecessor Gensler's enforcement priority.
The SEC said: It can pass.
Finally, look at Thune.
On July 23, Senate Majority Leader Thune publicly stated that the bill currently does not have enough votes to pass before the August recess.
He also said he hopes to initiate a full house review process at least before the recess.
The difference between "initiating deliberation" and "passing" is worlds apart.
Three people, three perspectives.
Atkins said "optimism," Thune said "not enough tickets," and the bank said "change and negotiate."
Who do you believe?
Now, let's talk about some heartbreaking data.
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 has dropped to 30%-33%.
Galaxy Digital's research lead Alex Thorn went even further, lowering the probability from 50% to 30%.
Keep in mind, on February 19, the figure was still 82%.
In half a year, the rate dropped from 82% to 30%.
Why is it so low? Three reasons:
First, there wasn't enough time.
August 7 is the last day before the Senate adjourns. Even if a procedural vote can be launched this week, the process from initiation to final vote itself will take several days.
After returning in September, there will only be three weeks of sessions, followed by the midterm elections in November. Lawmakers are focused on the election—who cares about the crypto bill?
Second, the differences remain unresolved.
Democrats oppose the ethical clauses imposed by Republicans. Elizabeth Warren directly questioned: Will this bill allow Trump to continue making big money from cryptocurrency?
The clause on stablecoin yields itself is the biggest point of contention.
Banks say "change before we can negotiate," while the crypto industry says "if we don't change, we die." Neither side would give in.
Third, even after passing the House and the Banking Committee, the total votes in the Senate are still insufficient.
Procedure, politics, and votes—three major obstacles.
Back to my judgment—35%.
Why not lower?
Because Finance Minister Bessent publicly expressed optimism about the final passage. Trump is also personally lobbying senators. The SEC Chairman personally took the lead.
The higher-ups are pushing, but the lower ranks don't have enough votes.
That's the 35% origin—some want it alive, but no one can guarantee it.
What does this mean for ordinary holders?
If the CLARITY Act fails, U.S. crypto regulation will continue to operate under a "law enforcement regulation" model—the SEC sues whoever it wants, with no clear rules.
If the bill passes but Section 10404 is changed by banks—stablecoin yield-bearing models in the US will lose all compliance space, and USDT and USDC yield-bearing products will have to be redesigned.
If the bill passes and remains unchanged—stablecoins can offer "real activity rewards" (staking, trading, liquidity provision), but cannot provide "passive holding interest."
Three outcomes, three destinies.
One last thing.
134 bank executives jointly wrote a letter, the SEC chairman appeared on TV to make a statement, and the majority party leader said there weren't enough votes—
This battle lasted until the very last moment, and no one knew who would win or lose until August 7.
But one thing is certain: regardless of the outcome, the business model of stablecoins will be rewritten.
$BTC $ETH $USDC #银行业联名施压, CLARITY stablecoin terms may be regenerated Thoughts on the recent sharp drop in tech stocks.
The Three-Body world has two forms: the Chaotic Era and the Eternal Era. Chaotic Eas are not suitable for survival, so everyone hides or hibernates, while Eternal Epoches emerge to survive and develop civilization
The current financial market should be in a chaotic era: stocks fluctuate wildly, crude oil prices fluctuate wildly, BTC also fluctuates wildly, policies fluctuate back and forth, and wars come and go
In such chaotic times, it's almost impossible for any product to maintain a stable and rapid upward trend. That's why tech stocks have been so wildly up-and-down lately—without an external stable environment, everyone comes in to speculate. No matter how good the narrative is, it can turn into a harvesting ground
Therefore, I believe that before the following factors cannot stabilize, it will be difficult for the market to break out of Hengjiyuan's long-term upward trend
1. The Federal Reserve has reached a long-term consensus on monetary policy
2. A major phase of easing tensions between the United States and Iran
3. Continuously delivering new growth narratives
4. Market leverage has contracted, and speculative sentiment has cooled
Currently, these four factors are intertwined, like the three suns of a chaotic era—one can start scorching mode at any moment, making it very difficult to develop technology and civilization.
The ideal turning point would be for the U.S.-Iran to negotiate and reach a relatively prolonged peace. Previously, the stock market's ups and downs were a way to clear leverage, and reaching a negotiation would help cool inflation and boost the Fed's confidence. Finally, with the arrival of the Heng Era, cryptocurrency narratives and AI narratives can guide market capital.
$BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 "I have to change my life with this opportunity."
Why is there such a crazy leverage phenomenon in the South Korean stock market?
Young people in South Korea believe: to live a better life, aside from seizing an opportunity in the financial market, there seems to be no other path.
High housing prices, employment pressure, and slow income growth have led more and more people to pin their hopes on the capital market.
Thus, the stock market is no longer just an investment channel but has become a gamble to change one's fate.
This is also why the leverage level of individual investors in the South Korean stock market has long been among the highest globally.
A large amount of funds enter the market through margin trading.
Behind popular tech stocks like Samsung and Hynix, there is a concentration of retail leveraged funds.
There are even many funds entering high-leverage long ETFs, hoping to achieve rapid growth by amplifying returns.
But the biggest risk in the leverage market is:
When prices rise, everyone feels they have caught the opportunity.
When prices fall, everyone simultaneously faces liquidity pressure.
Stock price drops → insufficient margin → forced selling → further decline
In the end, a normal correction can evolve into a chain liquidation across the entire market.
#Hynix #Storage The anxiety that had been hanging around all night was still disappointed. I stayed up until 3 a.m. before going to bed, woke up early at 6 a.m., my mind tossing and turning over the storage sector's trends and future market trends. The first thing I did upon waking was to quickly review Hynix's latest financial report.
Looking at the book data, this report card is actually quite impressive: total revenue reached $57.3 billion, operating profit reached $43.7 billion, revenue surged 257% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter, and operating profit soared 557% year-on-year and 61% quarter-on-quarter, both setting new historical highs. DRAM prices rose 30% month-on-month, NAND flash memory increased by 50%, and total revenue in the first half of the year surpassed 100 trillion Korean won for the first time. The core support for the surge in performance comes from high value-added AI storage products such as HBM, AI server-specific DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs, combined with the continuous rise in market prices of general-purpose DRAM and NAND flash, which have truly supported the company's performance.
Unfortunately, the impressive absolute returns failed to catch up with the market's early high expectations. Previously, the market estimated revenue at 84.1 trillion KRW and operating profit at 64.1 trillion KRW, but the actual figures were below expectations of 5.7% and 5.5%, respectively. As a result, SK Hynix's after-hours stock price plunged 6%.
Although I had positioned my short positions in advance and theoretically profited from the trend, deep down I actually hoped the earnings would exceed expectations. The capital market has always been very pragmatic. No matter how strong the fundamentals, if expectations are not met, price fluctuations will occur. Given the current situation, it is unlikely that the storage sector will see a rebound this week.FIRE Vault Beta版本上线至今已经接近三个月。不少人接触$FIRE之后，依旧简单将它视作Subfrost平台一个普通的二池挖矿代币，觉得只是提供流动性赚取奖励的常规DeFi产品。如果只停留在这个认知，就等于错过了Alkanes‑Subfrost生态当中，设计最为复杂、博弈层次最丰富的一套代币经济体系。 FIRE并不是依靠无节制增发代币、靠虚高APY疯狂虹吸TVL的项目。结合Subfrost官方文档与三个月的链上实际运行表现可以看到，FIRE Vault融合了多款经典DeFi协议的设计精华：吸收Synthetix的奖励累加机制、OlympusDAO（OHM）开创的POL协议控制流动性思想，同时深度继承比特币原生减半与通缩的底层哲学，把博弈约束、分级锁仓、流动性解决方案、国库资产价值全部固化到底层链上规则。 本文将从代币宏观经济学、质押机制、NFT仓位拆分、债券POL国库、套利博弈飞轮，再到现实运行中暴露的潜在风险，完整拆解FIRE整套逻辑，同时梳理现阶段参与者可以把握的Alpha机会。 绝对公平与比特币同源的通缩代币体系 加密赛道里，VC预挖、团队大额份额、早期内部筹码，是绝2000-2002 Internet bubble: SOX index fell 80%-85% from its peak.
2008 Financial Crisis: Dropped 60-70%.
2022 Bear Market: Aggressive rate hikes drove valuations, inventory cycles hit earnings, dropping 35%-46%.
The impact of the pandemic in 2020: a rapid 35% drop, then a rapid rebound.
Semiconductors undergo inventory adjustments almost every 3-5 years. From the 1990s, 2001, 2008, 2018-2019, and now to 2022, history has been without exception.
By 2026, four years have passed since the last inventory cycle. Although the AI era has changed demand structure, the inventory cycle logic for consumer electronics and general memory still holds.
History tells us that if an industry doesn't die, it can recover. But it doesn't tell us that after nearly a sevenfold increase, we can continue to rise another sevenfold indefinitely—there will eventually be an end.
As for when that will end. It seems ultimately to depend on the major clients of the storage stocks, namely the tech giants. If the money they invest in cannot be recouped in the long term and returns fall far below expectations, then the current valuation of storage stocks is not worthwhile.Banks panic: 134 executives jointly petitioned, just to strangle your stablecoin interest rates
134 bank executives jointly wrote a letter to the Senate.
134 people came from all over the U.S., all to do one thing—to get Congress to write the stablecoin yield clause in the CLARITY Act even more stiffly.
What are they in such a hurry?
They fear you will find out: putting money in stablecoins makes more money than keeping it in banks.
Let's start with what happened.
On July 13, the American Bankers Association (ABA), the Independent Community Bankers Association (ICBA), and 76 state-level banking associations jointly sent a joint letter to Senate Majority Leader Thune and Minority Leader Schumer.
The core demand is summed up in one sentence: tighten Section 404 of the CLARITY Act to completely cut off the possibility of stablecoin "interest-like" yields.
Why pinch it?
In its letter, ICBA made a striking statement—if stablecoins can pay interest, bank deposits could lose $1.3 trillion, and community banks' lending capacity would shrink by $850 billion.
1.3 trillion.
They calculated it clearly—for every 1 yuan you deposit into USDT or USDC to earn interest, the bank loses 1 yuan to lend money.
This is not regulatory bargaining; it is an existential crisis.
But interestingly, Wall Street started fighting first.
Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon publicly stated: supporting the advancement of the CLARITY Act and the establishment of a level playing field.
JPMorgan CEO Dimon retorted directly: "Banks will not accept this approach; it will eventually cause problems." ”
Blackstone, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton also supported the bill.
On one hand, traditional commercial banks fear losing deposits.
On one hand, asset management giants want clear rules.
The essence of this battle boils down to one sentence: Who has the right to manage your money?
So what exactly does the CLARITY Act say?
Simply put: stablecoin issuers are prohibited from paying interest simply because you hold stablecoins.
However, rewards linked to "real activity" are allowed—such as trading cashback, providing liquidity, and participating in staking.
Translated into adult language: Earning money lying down isn't good, but moving is fine.
This is called the shift from "Hold to Earn" to "Use to Earn."
Banks felt this was still not enough. What they want is—you can't even get involved, since stablecoins can't be considered more attractive than deposits.
Therefore, they demanded that the "substantial similarity" standard be changed to prevent any design that is "economically equivalent to deposit interest."
This is to plug all the loopholes.
Where is the bill now?
The House passed last year. The Senate Banking Committee passed the bill on May 14 by a vote of 15 to 9.
However, the full Senate vote has yet to make any progress.
Majority leader Thune said it is highly unlikely to pass before the August recess.
Polymarket data shows that the approval rate has dropped to between 30% and 33% this year.
SEC Chairman Atkins was quite proactive, saying he was "committed to assisting Congress in advancing it."
But the Democrats are still arguing about the moral clause—Trump has made about $1.4 billion from crypto business, which is the biggest obstacle.
On one side, banks are blocked; on the other, politicians are arguing.
Your stablecoin interest is caught in the middle.
To be honest—what does this have to do with you and me?
If you hold USDT or USDC and earn money by depositing coins for interest—
Once CLARITY passes, the passive interest will be gone.
If you want to keep earning, you need to go to DeFi for liquidity, staking, and real trading.
The threshold is higher, and the risks are greater.
Banks are eager for this. Because for ordinary people, trouble = giving up.
If you find it troublesome and stop playing, the money will flow back to the bank.
This is the bank's calculation.
Finally, a few heartfelt words.
I'm not criticizing the bank. They're just protecting their own business—anyone would do that.
But what I want to say is—
Stablecoins can generate interest, and it's never a bug—it's a feature.
The underlying assets are U.S. Treasuries and cash, so returns naturally exist. It's simply a matter of who gets the profits.
Belong to the bank? That is deposit interest, 0.01%.
"Yours?" That's stablecoin yield, 4% to 5%.
What banks want to kill isn't stablecoins, but your chance to get that 4%.
134 people jointly submitted a petition, all for this very reason.
Do you think they should win?
$BTC $USDC $ETH #银行业联名施压, CLARITY stablecoin terms may be regenerated Over the past 10 years, Bitwise, Coinbase, Nasdaq, and TSE have all tried to create Crypto indices, but none have been very successful.
Now, the S&P DJI in partnership with Pantera has launched the S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index (Ticker: SPPDA), aiming to change this logic: excluding BTC, it focuses on selecting Crypto networks that generate protocol revenue and allow token holders to capture value.
The criteria for assets in SPPDA are: real use cases, protocol revenue, and economic activity.
According to information released by S&P DJI, SPPDA initially includes 18 assets. The top five confirmed components currently include ETH, BNB, SOL, TRX, and HYPE, while the remaining 13 assets have not yet been fully disclosed. The official PDF also specifies several asset screening principles, including:
◦ New entrants must have a market cap exceeding $500 million
◦ Circulating supply must be greater than 30%
◦ Trading activity/liquidity: LR must exceed 0.5
◦ Must have a certain history of existence
◦ Protocol revenue must be positive for two consecutive quarters
◦ Excludes abandoned ownerless tokens and meme coins
As for the issuer S&P DJI, everyone is familiar with it. The well-known S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average in the U.S. stock market are both maintained and operated by S&P DJI, demonstrating its influence.
In fact, over the past 10 years, many institutions have launched crypto index products, but their presence in the market has become very low. These indices share common characteristics: 1) generally include Bitcoin with a high weighting; 2) overall performance basically follows the crypto bull and bear cycles, performing well in bull markets but dropping to unwatchable levels in bear markets; 3) highly exposed to BTC and ETH, without truly capturing the value growth of different protocols in the crypto ecosystem; 4) in the long term, returns are even worse than simply holding BTC alone.
Attached is a list of historical Crypto index products:
◦ The earliest was CRIX (Cryptocurrency Index) in 2016
◦ BITW (Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund) in 2017
◦ Coinbase Index Fund in 2018
◦ NCI (Nasdaq Crypto Index) in 2021
◦ CD20 (CoinDesk 20 Index) in 2021
◦ FTSE-Grayscale Digital Asset Index Series in 2024
◦ S&P Digital Markets 50 Index in 2025, including 15 tokens and 35 crypto-related stocks 🚨 THE BIP-110 “THREAT” TO BITCOIN LOOKS A LOT WEAKER THAN THE HEADLINES SUGGEST.
Michael Saylor opposing BIP-110 barely changes the actual picture.
The real issue is miner coordination—and right now, there’s nowhere near enough support for this to become a credible lock-in path.
As of July 29, only 10 out of 454 blocks were signaling for it—just 2.20%.
That leaves 1,099 more blocks out of the next 1,562 needed to reach the threshold, or roughly 70.4%.
And some of the biggest mining pools—Foundry, AntPool, and ViaBTC—showed zero signaling.
There’s another important detail: under legacy Stratum V1, version bits often reflect mining-pool template policy, not necessarily the personal conviction of individual miners.
Even Predyx’s September-enforcement market was sitting at just 8.37%, which is hardly a strong signal of market confidence.
So, for $BTC, the takeaway is simple:
Near-term base-layer change risk remains low.
The noise may be loud, but the actual numbers are telling a much quieter story. 👀
#Bitcoin #BTC #BIP110
#DailyOrbit #FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss Guys, BTC edged up 0.72% today, currently priced at $64,383.8. Intraday volatility narrowed to $63,582-64,439. In the past 24 hours, net liquidations across the network amounted to $611 million, and long liquidations totaled $511 million—short-term leveraged chips have been heavily washed out. This isn't a sideways move; everyone is standing in front of the FOMC, waiting for the Fed to fire that shot. The biggest divergence: Citi vs. Citadel, which side do you support? Tonight, the script of the FOMC resolution has shown a rare split. Citi's head of interest rate trading has already made a high-profile statement: "We still insist on expecting rates to remain unchanged. Wash hopes the market will focus on data, which indicates that a rate hike is currently unnecessary." All 104 economists bet to hold their course, and Goldman Sachs also sided with them. But a report from Citadel Securities' head of macro strategy is circulating in the market: "If Walsh raises rates in July instead of September, it will strongly end the era of forward-looking guidance and force the market to price based on economic data." This will clearly demonstrate the Fed's independence. CME data shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged at about 61%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike has risen to 39%. How big is the division? Block Scholes reviews all Fed meetings since 2015, with only two pre-meeting market divisions greater than this one. BTC's Independent Signal: It's Going Its Own Way, Not Crashing with AI Stocks Interestingly, while the semiconductor index fell nearly 20% in July, BTC has still risen about 6% so far in July, with the S&P 500 holding steady$BAND
A sharp rejection from the session highs has forced price right back into the middle of a choppy consolidation zone.
Keeping risk tight since volatility can expand rapidly out of these compressed bases.
EP
0.1410 - 0.1470
TP
0.1550
0.1610
0.1680
SL
0.1370
Sellers tried pressing the advantage, but volume dropped off noticeably on the way down, hinting at exhausted downside pressure. If buyers step in to form a higher low, a steady recovery is very much on the table.
Let's go $BAND
#FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight Is a global financial crisis about to come? It sure looks like it!
1/ Storage keeps crashing, and the South Korean stock market keeps hitting circuit breakers. Many people treat it as a joke, thinking it's just because of high local leverage in South Korea. But if you review the past thirty years of global financial crises, you'll find a pattern: South Korea always collapses first in every major crisis.
2/ Before the four circuit breakers in the 2020 pandemic stock crash, the South Korean KOSPI had already dropped 35% three weeks earlier.
Two months before Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy in 2008, South Korea was already facing a dollar shortage.
Before the 2000 Nasdaq crash, Samsung and Hynix revised their forecasts downward, and South Korea's semiconductor sector peaked early. During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, South Korea was the first core economy to be breached.
3/ This is no coincidence. South Korea's capital market is almost fully open, with foreign ownership consistently over 30%. Samsung and Hynix are among the most liquid assets globally. Capital flows freely in and out, with ample buyers to absorb sales, allowing large sell-offs to be executed quickly.
4/ Therefore, South Korea has become a "backup cash pool" for global capital. Western institutions earn yields in South Korea during normal times, but when domestic liquidity tightens, margin calls come, or debts mature, their first reaction is to sell overseas holdings and pull money back home to put out fires.
5/ The priority is clear: protect the home market first, then abandon the periphery; sell the liquid assets first, then the harder-to-liquidate ones. This has little to do with South Korea's economic health or whether its stock market is in a bubble—it's purely capital's instinct for self-preservation.
6/ This time, the trigger in South Korea is a semiconductor bubble combined with leverage. On average, every person has 2 stock accounts nationwide, and 1 in every 3 trades is margin-financed. Once foreign capital withdraws, domestic leveraged positions cascade into forced liquidations, causing circuit breakers to keep triggering. There have been 35 program trading circuit breakers this year alone, including 5 full-market halts, breaking the 2008 record.
7/ But South Korea's problem is not just its own. It is a warning signal of global liquidity tightening. When global capital starts to drain from overseas, South Korea is the first bleeding point, then the shockwaves spread layer by layer along capital chains and industrial chains.
8/ In the four historical crises, the triggers differed, but the underlying logic was the same: liquidity gaps first appear in Western home markets, capital withdraws from South Korea, South Korea collapses first, then the crisis spreads to Asia-Pacific, commodities, emerging markets, and finally back to Western home markets.
9/ Will this evolve into a global financial crisis? The key variable is not South Korea but the United States. In 2020, the Federal Reserve held the crisis down with unlimited easing and zero interest rates. What about this time? If the Fed can still cut rates and inject liquidity, the market might be supported like in 2020. If the Fed continues to raise rates or delays rescue, the real crisis may just be beginning.
10/ So my judgment: South Korea's circuit breakers are a warning, not a conclusion. Whether a financial crisis comes depends on whether the Fed still has ammunition and is willing to use it. Both are uncertain now.
11/ For ordinary people, the most important thing at times like this is not to predict the crisis but to control position sizes. Never be fully invested, and never add leverage. Always keep some cash because real wealth opportunities often appear at the most fearful moments.
12/ My approach: keep 60% core positions in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 for long-term holding. The remaining 40% is cash or short-term bonds, reserved to add positions when indices drop 15%, 30%, or 40%. It's not bottom fishing; it's executing a plan.
13/ Historical data shows that after every major crisis, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 reach new highs. 1987, 2000, 2008, 2020, 2022—without exception. Crises are not enemies of long-term investors; they are opportunities.
14/ So I am not afraid of crises. What I fear is not having cash to add positions when a crisis hits. Even more, I fear panic selling during a crisis and handing bloodied chips to others.
15/ South Korea's circuit breakers are an alarm, not a signal to liquidate everything. They remind you to check your positions, control leverage, and keep cash. The real winners are not those who predict crises but those who can hold their chips and have ammunition to add positions during crises.
Let's encourage each other, brothers!The direction of Wall Street is quietly blowing into my screen ✨. During this weekend's review, did you feel that the string between US stocks and crypto is tighter than usual? 🥲 I just finished reviewing the latest crypto stock data and noticed a rather subtle signal: stocks linked to the AI + crypto dual track—AMD, Coinbase, Broadcom—have almost all turned negative in the past 24 hours, but the declines haven't been significant, hovering between -0.5% and -3%. This isn't panic selling; it's more like premature scaling down and waiting for big news to arrive. What truly held the market breathless was this week's combination of major events: - The earnings reports from the four AI giants—Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple—are about to be released one after another - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is also stuck at the same window. Liquidity has become especially selective now. The AI and semiconductor sectors are under short-term pressure, but this is not because the fundamentals have deteriorated; rather, everyone is waiting for an answer: with so much money burned by AI, can it really translate into real revenue growth? If the earnings report exceeds expectations, risk assets will receive a wave of new confidence; If disappointed, both stocks and crypto may face a round of profit-taking. For me, the key this week isn't guessing the rise or fall, but observing the speed of sentiment transmission across markets. You see, BTC's recent linkage with tech stocks has been quite obvious, especially when macro narratives dominate. If the US AI sector rebounds on strong earnings reports, BTC may follow suit; But#美联储即将公布利率决议
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
📊 $WLD Liquidation Overview
24-hour total liquidation $3,800,100
Long liquidations $3,723,900 accounting for 98% of total
Short liquidations only $76,200, longs are 48.9 times shorts
1-hour short liquidations $8,306.67 accounting for 99.94%, an extreme short squeeze disturbance shortly after market open
4-hour short liquidations $8,450.03 still accounting for 99.4%, short squeeze continues but on a very small scale
12-hour direction completely reversed, long liquidations $2,779,800 accounting for 98.5%, a fierce long liquidation surge
24-hour long liquidations $3,723,900, shorts only $76,200
Liquidation scale grew over 457 times from $8,311 in 1 hour to $3,800,100 in 24 hours
The last 12 hours contributed about 69% of the daily liquidation volume, concentrated long liquidation surge
Shorts briefly dominated in 1-4 hours but were completely crushed afterwards
In summary: $WLD 24-hour long liquidations $3,723,900 accounting for 98% of total, fierce long liquidation surge starting from 12 hours, shorts completely defeated.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 29
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: collective anxiety at a critical market juncture—Fed uncertainty, AI ledgers of tech giants, and the earnings cliff of storage leaders, intertwining into a highly tense end of July.
🏛️ Fed Decision Countdown: The Most Uncertain in Recent Years
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. Economists are highly unanimous—104 surveyed by Reuters all expect no change, but futures markets price in a 30.5% chance of a rate hike.
This rare "expert-market" divergence stems from Fed Chair Waller abandoning forward guidance. Traders don’t know what the Fed will do and hedge aggressively—futures positions linked to the benchmark rate have surged to historic highs. JPMorgan expects at least two hawkish dissent votes at this meeting—including Logan and Harker.
Core contradiction: June CPI cooled significantly (YoY 3.5%), oil price surge is supply shock not demand-driven, so rate hikes won’t solve it; but Waller needs to establish anti-inflation credibility, and ongoing US-Iran conflict pushes geopolitical risk premium higher. The result will be revealed early Thursday—most mainstream expectation is no change but a hawkish tilt.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings Tonight: The "Triple Test" of AI Spending
Tonight, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release earnings. Market focus is unified: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue?
· Microsoft: Intelligent Cloud (including Azure) expected revenue $32.9B, Azure growth about 39%, slightly slower than last quarter’s 40%.
· Meta: Market expects revenue around $60.2B, ad revenue about $59B. Key is 2026 capex guidance raised to $125-145B, whether AI investment erodes ad profits.
· Amazon: AWS expected revenue about $40.6B, up 31.6% YoY. Capex soared over 76% YoY to $44.2B, AWS holds $244B contract backlog, but market worries about negative free cash flow.
Google and Tesla have already sounded alarms with first-ever negative cash flow. Tonight’s three earnings will jointly decide if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
📉 SK Hynix Earnings Record High but Below Expectations: Storage Stocks Volatile
SK Hynix released Q2 earnings today: revenue 79.32 trillion KRW, up 257% YoY; operating profit 60.54 trillion KRW, up 557% YoY; net profit 93.92 trillion KRW, up 1242% YoY. Operating margin reached 76%, with first half revenue surpassing 100 trillion KRW.
However, revenue and operating profit both missed market expectations (expected 84 trillion and 64 trillion KRW). Reasons for the miss: too high HBM sales proportion, slower price increases, and long-term contracts locking prices.
After earnings release, SK Hynix US shares fell over 5% in after-hours, then staged a "V-shaped reversal" to close higher; Korean shares surged then fell over 10%. Since the June 22 peak, SK Hynix stock has dropped 46.9%. Record earnings still met with "voting with feet," indicating market expectations for the storage chip supercycle are stretched to the limit—any flaw will be magnified.
💎 Summary
These three events share a common thread: the market is "grading" the past two years of AI frenzy. Fed uncertainty, tech giants’ AI ledgers, and storage leaders’ earnings cliff together form the most tense narrative at the end of July 2026—when expectations are maxed out, any less-than-perfect result may trigger intense reactions.7月27号上午，长鑫在上海敲钟那一刻，我脑子里蹦出来的第一句就是： “这下，纽约那边有人要睡不着了。” 下午盘面一刷，果然对上了。 A股这边是彻底的狂欢。长鑫科技科创板首日暴涨465.82%，直接冲到3.28万亿市值，单日成交1411亿，硬生生把一堆老牌蓝筹踩在脚下，成了新的“股王”。 同一晚上，海外那边就变脸了： SK海力士美股ADR盘中一度跌到接近‑10%，刚在7月9号IPO，发行价149美元，结果不到一个月就破发；美光跟着往下挫，跌了2.25%；闪迪最惨，单日收盘‑11.02%，费城半导体指数盘中也被拖着跌近5%。 B 一边是中国存储板块放烟花，另一边是美韩存储股被按在地上摩擦。 你要说这事“没关系”，那真是睁着眼说瞎话；你要说只是“竞争担忧”，又明显低估了这次地震的级别。 我更愿意这么理解：那一天，不只是长鑫的股价被重估，整个全球DRAM的游戏规则，其实都被迫重启了一次。 先把话说清楚，DRAM到底有多关键？ B 你每天用的手机，开机那一瞬间，屏幕亮起来背后就是内存条在工作；电脑里插的那根长长的条子也是DRAM；现在所有AI大模型训练用的HBM高带宽内存，本质依然是DRAM家族#美联储即将公布利率决议
I'm Ci Ge. The countdown to the Federal Reserve's decision has begun. We'll see the outcome at 2 PM tonight.
The cards have never been so uncertain
All 104 Economists surveyed by Reuters predicted a rate hike would hold steady, but CME data shows the probability of a rate hike surged from 13% a week ago to 36.3%. UBS's chief economist bluntly stated that this is the most difficult decision he has made in 20 years. All 104 experts voted 'no move,' while the market bet on 30% 'will move.' This divergence itself is a risk.
The key is wash, not the numbers
After Federal Reserve Chair Wash took office, he completely abolished the forward-looking guidance. Previously, you could infer direction from officials' speeches; now all signals are deliberately blurred until the resolution is announced. Logan and Hamack have publicly called for rate hikes, and both hold voting rights. More than two opposing votes are a strong hawkish signal.
Three scenarios: How will BTC proceed?
Scenario One: Maintain the same + lean dovish. BTC is very likely to continue rising, with short-term targets of 65,000 to 65,500, and medium-term target 67,000.
Scenario 2: Maintain the same + lean hawkish. The statement acknowledged the upside inflation risks caused by geopolitical factors and tariffs, with BTC surging in the short term and then pulling back, facing resistance between 64,000 and 64,500.
Scenario three: an unexpected 25 basis point rate hike. JPMorgan estimates the S&P 500 could plunge by 1.5% to 2%, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, is very likely to directly test 62,500 to 63,000.
But there is a signal worth noting
BTC is decoupling from tech stocks. Since July, BTC has risen about 6%, the S&P 500 is basically flat, and the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20% cumulatively. Analysts believe BTC may not be as fragile as traditional tech stocks. K33 Research points out that Nasdaq positions are becoming increasingly crowded, while BTC is consolidating near multi-year lows, so the weakening correlation between the two is not surprising.
My judgment
Tonight's biggest risk is not a "rate hike," but a "hawkish pause." All 104 economists voted unanimously to hold their positions, indicating that the market has fully priced in the "unchanged" policy. What truly ignited the market was a comment from Walsh at the press conference. If he hints that September will be a "live meeting" (all options on the table), BTC will face short-term pressure, but in the medium term, the more hawkish the Fed is, the faster fiat currency credit depletion, and BTC's non-sovereignty narrative will actually become tougher. Don't bet heavily on direction before making decisions. Wait until Washy finishes speaking before making a move.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Recently, OKX Futures launched a new coin—$AEON. Today's rally was quite strong. I just checked, and $AEON is currently at the top of the gainers' chart, surpassing the rebounding $BEAT. So now the question is, is this new coin worth chasing at a higher price now? There are many new coins that surge at the opening; I remember $CHIP used to be like this. However, there are also many new coins that crash after a period of volatility at the open, such as $MEGA. So, which type does $AEON belong to? Or, to put it more bluntly, can you go long on $AEON now? —————————————————— Let's look at a set of data. This is part of today's $AEON contract data. It's clear that its contract open interest is rising rapidly, but the contract long-short ratio is rapidly declining. What does this mean? This indicates that the market is not very optimistic about this coin right now. At the very least, the number of new accounts shorting it is higher than the number of accounts going long. Let's take a look at its funding fee data. It can be seen that its funding fees have been negative for the past two days. This shows that the bears are very strong, because contracts currently only sell short positions in the market, so the market's shorting sentiment is mainly reflected in contract funding fees. Personally, I think now is not a good time to go long on $AEON. —————————————————— Not all new coins will surge at the open; many new coins will open with a sharp riseEven if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates tonight, BTC may not necessarily rise directly.
The interest rate decision will be announced at 2:00 AM on July 30, Beijing and Singapore time, with a press conference at 2:30 AM. Before this was written, the interest rate market probabilities were approximately: 70.6% to maintain 3.50%—3.75% unchanged, 29.4% to raise by 25 basis points.
Maintaining the interest rate is already the expectation of the majority, and judging only by the result can easily lead to misinterpretation. What is more worth paying attention to tonight are the voting divergences and Kevin Warsh's statements on the September policy.
There are roughly three possible scenarios:
If there is an unexpected rate hike, BTC will most likely first face selling pressure, but the initial sharp drop is not suitable for blindly shorting. The market already has nearly a 30% expectation of a rate hike, so the negative impact is not completely unpriced; it also depends on whether the Federal Reserve hints at continued tightening afterward.
If the rate is maintained but multiple members vote for a rate hike, BTC may first briefly rally due to "no rate hike," then fall back again. This is because the market will quickly shift its focus to September, and the greater the rate hike divergence, the higher the probability of subsequent tightening.
A relatively favorable situation is maintaining the rate with limited hawkish dissent, and the press conference does not reinforce expectations of a September rate hike. However, this meeting will not update the dot plot, and Kevin Warsh's wording will be more likely to cause repeated fluctuations than usual.
To judge whether the market truly strengthens, it is necessary to see if BTC can retake $65,000, whether spot trading volume expands, and whether contract open interest suddenly surges during the rise. If the price increase mainly relies on leveraged long positions, a single wording change during the press conference could wipe out all gains.
Tonight's interest rate decision is only the first phase of the market; the voting results and the press conference half an hour later may determine the direction of the second phase. Those with heavy positions need to guard not against guessing the wrong result, but against two consecutive opposite fluctuations.
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象 #美联储即将公布利率决议 深夜崩盘，美股科技股集体踩踏，这一波AI硬件泡沫终于被戳破了？ 昨晚很多熬夜盯盘的朋友，估计心里都咯噔了一下。打开行情软件，一整片深红色，不是个别股票在跌，而是整个AI硬件板块在集体雪崩。康宁暴跌19%，闪迪暴跌15%，就连美光科技这种存储巨头也跌了近10%。这不是一次普通的技术性回调，更像是一场从里到外的信心瓦解。 很多人可能觉得，美股跌了关我们什么事？关系太大了。过去一年半，全球科技股牛市的核心逻辑，就是美国科技巨头不计成本地砸钱搞AI基建，带动了整个硬件产业链的繁荣。从光模块到存储芯片，从服务器到玻璃基板，大家都在讲一个“算力需求无限”的故事。现在，这个故事的根基，开始松动了。 表面是大跌，本质是“预期”的集体崩塌 我们先看看这次跌得最惨的几个代表。康宁，一个半月股价从272美元跌到116美元，直接腰斩。它不是做消费电子玻璃的，在AI这条链上，它是光模块上游关键的玻璃基材和光学元件供应商。闪迪，做存储的，股价从2354美元跌到1089美元，同样腰斩。Lumentum、Coherent这些光器件公司，跌幅都在13%以上。 资产价格短时间跌成这样，肯定不是一家公司出了问题。是市场对整存储芯片崩盘，AI主线安好？29日夜里的“三张牌”才是关键 这可能是近期全球半导体市场上最割裂的一幕。 一边是AI总龙头英伟达股价稳如磐石，仅微跌1.4%；另一边，存储芯片板块却遭遇了惨烈的“屠杀”——美光暴跌11.5%，市值跌回9000亿美元，闪迪、西部数据跌幅均超14%，日本铠侠、韩国海力士也未能幸免。 同一时间，同一个产业，为何冰火两重天？市场的钱，究竟在怕什么？ 涨价的“故事”讲到了尾声 最直接的原因，是此前那个支撑存储股价一飞冲天的“涨价故事”，似乎讲到了尽头。 数据是不会骗人的。内存供货价在二季度一口气猛涨了六成，可到了三季度，机构预测的涨幅只剩下可怜的“一成半”。不是下游不缺货，而是电脑和手机厂商真的被成本压得喘不过气，开始主动“砍单”了。下游需求扛不住，价格再往上冲的动力自然就弱了。股价总是抢跑于现实，当涨价预期触顶，筹码便率先松动。 更要命的是，资本市场的记忆是残酷的。暴涨带来的暴利，已经引来了“砸场子”的人。三星和海力士手握约5900亿美元的扩产计划，而中国最大的内存厂长鑫存储的上市，更是被视为悬在头顶的“达摩克利斯之剑”。海外投资者将此解读为产能过剩的加速器，并以#美联储即将公布利率决议
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
📊 $OKB Liquidation Overview
Total 24h liquidations $22,200
Long liquidations $22,200, about 99.99% of total
Short liquidations only $2.45, longs are about 9,060 times shorts
1h short liquidations $2.45, 100%, a brief short squeeze disturbance at open, very small scale
4h long liquidations $96.57 surpassed shorts, 97.5%, direction reversal, long squeeze started
12h long liquidations $21,400, 99.99%, the most intense long squeeze window of the day
24h long liquidations $22,200, shorts only $2.45
Liquidation scale grew over 224 times from 4h $99.02 to 24h $22,200
Last 12h contributed about 96% of daily liquidations, long squeeze concentrated in 12h
Shorts briefly dominated in 1h but were completely crushed, no effective counterattack throughout
Summary: $OKB 24h long liquidations $22,200 account for 99.99% total, 12h concentrated long squeeze, shorts completely defeated.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 29
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: collective anxiety at a critical market juncture—Fed uncertainty, tech giants' AI ledgers, and storage leaders' earnings cliff, intertwining into a highly tense late July.
🏛️ Fed Decision Countdown: The Most Uncertain in Recent Years
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30, the Fed will announce its rate decision. Economists are highly unanimous—Reuters surveyed 104 forecasters all expecting no change, but rate futures market bets a 30.5% chance of a hike.
This rare "expert-market" divergence stems from Fed Chair Waller abandoning forward guidance. Traders don’t know what the Fed will do and hedge wildly—futures positions linked to the benchmark rate have surged to historic highs. JPMorgan expects at least two hawkish dissent votes this meeting—including Logan and Harker.
Core contradiction: June CPI cooled significantly (YoY 3.5%), oil price surge is supply shock not demand-driven, so hikes won’t help; but Waller needs to build "anti-inflation" credibility, while US-Iran conflict keeps geopolitical risk premium high. The result will be revealed early Thursday—most expect no change but a hawkish tilt.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings Tonight: The "Triple Test" of AI Spending
Tonight, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release earnings. Market focus is unified: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue?
· Microsoft: Intelligent Cloud (including Azure) expected revenue $32.9B, Azure growth about 39%, slightly down from last quarter’s 40%.
· Meta: Market expects revenue about $60.2B, ad revenue about $59B. Key is 2026 capex guidance raised to $125-145B, whether AI investment erodes ad profits.
· Amazon: AWS expected revenue about $40.6B, up 31.6% YoY. Capex soared over 76% YoY to $44.2B. AWS holds $244B contract backlog, but market worries about negative free cash flow.
Google and Tesla previously sounded alarms with first-ever negative cash flow. Tonight’s three reports will jointly decide if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
📉 SK Hynix Records Earnings but Misses Expectations: Storage Stocks Volatile
SK Hynix released Q2 earnings: revenue 79.32 trillion KRW, up 257% YoY; operating profit 60.54 trillion KRW, up 557%; net profit 93.92 trillion KRW, up 1242%. Operating margin 76%, first half revenue surpassed 100 trillion KRW.
However, revenue and operating profit missed market expectations (expected 84 trillion and 64 trillion KRW). Reasons: high HBM sales proportion, slower price increases, long-term contracts locking prices.
After earnings, SK Hynix US shares fell over 5% in after-hours, then staged a "V-shaped" rebound to close up; Korean shares opened high then fell over 10%. Since June 22 peak, SK Hynix shares have dropped 46.9%. Record earnings still met with "foot voting," showing market expectations for storage chip supercycle are stretched to the limit—any flaw is magnified.
💎 Summary
Three events share the same main line: the market is "grading" the past two years of AI frenzy. Fed uncertainty, tech giants’ AI ledgers, and storage leaders’ earnings cliff together form the most tense narrative of late July 2026—when expectations are maxed out, any less-than-perfect result may trigger sharp reactions.