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Let's talk about today's market analysis
This morning, the US stock storage sector rose, driven by the rise in the Korean stock market. However, a risk needs to be pointed out here: the US stock market has recently been moving independently, with the leading role played by the Korean stock market as a pioneer. Usually, most of the gains during the day are erased after the market opens, so avoid chasing the rally.
There is a large capital inflow into the crypto market, with ETH trading volume soaring to hundreds of billions of dollars, and the volume ratio increasing by 4 times. This indicates that the volatility risk funds attracted away by US stock contracts recently are starting to flow back. This is a signal worth noting, as capital attention is increasing. I judge that the crypto market should have a good trend ahead, and it is recommended to follow the trend.
Regarding US stocks, you can also pay attention to targets outside of hardware storage, such as SPCX, GOOGL, Apple, Meta, etc. When storage volatility decreases or declines, sector rotation usually occurs, pulling up these old tech stocks. You can buy on dips and cash out on highs. This round's script with $SKHYNIX $SNDK is somewhat like a wealthy landlord returning money to the people with a 70/30 split. I wonder if anyone has noticed that the buyback is of treasury shares, cashing out company cash flow reasonably at a high level. But if the cash-out at this position is completed, and retail investors panic sell, they then use the cashed-out money to buy back at a low price, isn't it still back in their own hands, continuing to pay dividends? The capital market doesn't believe in tears; from a business mindset, that's how it is—left hand to right hand, buying time, letting the goods keep flowing, and not letting the market collapse quickly. Not sure if this is correct. Anyway, if something unexpected happens, have a plan first. #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 The second largest short squeeze day in crypto history has arrived again.
According to Coinglass data, on August 19th, the total short liquidations across the network were about $1.74 billion, making it the second largest single-day short liquidation volume in history, only behind the $2.46 billion short liquidation on October 10, 2025. At that time, long liquidations reached as high as $16.7 billion (total liquidation record was $19.16 billion, the largest liquidation day in crypto history, showing how much impact the 10/10/last year or 10/11/domestic event had on the crypto space, directly cutting off the bull market progress).
On August 19th, the total 24-hour liquidations were about $1.9 billion, with shorts absolutely dominating (about $1.74 billion, over 90%), and longs only about $180 million. Among these, BTC contributed the majority (about $1.1 billion+ in shorts), and ETH about $460–510 million. The single-hour peak saw short liquidations of $1.1–1.23 billion.
The short squeeze was driven by a combination of crowded high-leverage short positions + price breakout + forced liquidation feedback loop.
Positions were crowded on the short side, with a significant number of traders (especially high-leverage players) continuously adding shorts. For example, a particularly conspicuous whale short appeared on Hyperliquid:
One address had an 1800 BTC short position (about $117 million, 40x leverage) fully liquidated; two other addresses combined triggered about 1177 BTC (about $77 million) in liquidations.
These high-leverage short liquidations were highly concentrated around similar price levels. This sudden price surge caused a chain reaction:
BTC rapidly surged and once touched near the $70,000 high, with a significant 24-hour gain.
The sudden price spike caused high-leverage short margin to be insufficient, forcing exchanges to buy to close positions, further pushing prices up and liquidating more shorts.
This positive feedback loop is especially violent in the perpetual futures market.
Especially with very high leverage, such as tens of times leverage, and order book liquidity thinning at key price levels. On-chain perpetual futures platforms can see whale positions, making them easy targets.Today's big rally in the market is really not just a single positive factor hitting the jackpot; it's several major events coinciding and resonating together.
First, the U.S. Treasury softened its stance, expanding long-term bond repurchases, causing long-term bond yields to drop sharply. Market liquidity instantly became much looser, and funds unwilling to settle for low returns started flowing into high-volatility tracks like BTC and ETH. This is the core reason behind this surge.
Second, the regulatory tone has completely softened. The SEC is now gradually clarifying the rules, providing the market with a clear compliance path instead of mindless crackdowns. The previously cautious institutional sentiment has suddenly loosened up.
Also, the White House directly met with leading figures in the crypto industry this time, discussing tokenization and regulatory frameworks. Simply put, the government is starting to take this sector seriously, giving the market strong confidence support.
Add to that the return of ETF funds and a large number of shorts being liquidated and closed out, multiple positive factors stacked together, causing the market to surge explosively.
But honestly, one bullish candle can't change beliefs.
This rally is currently driven by liquidity recovery, policy expectations, and short squeeze.
Whether it can develop into a true long-term trend depends on one core factor: whether there is sustained real money entering the spot market to take over positions.
If incremental funds continue to come in, this wave is the starting point of a reversal;
If no funds take over, it's likely just a short-term rebound with repeated shakeouts afterward.
Bull or bear markets are never judged by a single candlestick, but by whether the funds have returned and can be stabilized $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Coinbase has integrated Hyperliquid perpetual contract trading into its Base App. Eligible users can now access over 290 perpetual markets, covering BTC, ETH, stocks, and commodity-related assets, with leverage up to 50x. Trading execution is handled by Hyperliquid. Coinbase stated that perpetual contracts currently account for about 75% of total cryptocurrency trading volume and are among the most requested features by Base App users. This launch marks a shift for the Base App from its early focus on social and creator features to accelerating broader use cases such as trading, payments, and AI agent capabilities. It should be noted that this product will not be available to users in the US, UK, Canada, and other jurisdictions that restrict leveraged crypto derivatives. This means users in some major markets cannot currently use this feature through the Base App, with compliance boundaries remaining a core constraint on product expansion. From a market impact perspective, Coinbase’s choice to integrate external liquidity rather than build its own matching engine reflects a preference among leading trading platforms in the derivatives space to quickly access mature liquidity networks to capture market share. Hyperliquid, as an emerging on-chain perpetual contract platform, is expected to further expand its penetration among institutional and retail users by leveraging Coinbase’s distribution channels. However, high-leverage perpetual contracts inherently carry higher risks.BTC accumulated consolidation zone energy for more than two months and exploded after breaking through 6.56 last night~ e-coin surged over 20%. Chart 1: Weekly level support at 6.56, resistance at 8.25. For a true bull return, my personal view is that the weekly close must be above 8.25. Chart 2: Daily level support at 6.65, resistance at 7.38. Currently, this momentum surge shows no signs of stopping or weakening~ Friends who missed this wave should not FOMO or short just because of the big rise. Until the consolidation zone indicated by the arrow in Chart 3 appears and breaks down, I suggest refraining from shorting! The market is strongly running up. The only visible support (pullback) below now, besides the daily level 6.65, can only be found by combining hourly K-line structures. But honestly, there is no obvious resonance level yet; more K-line structure is needed here~ For those still in the market or entering on the right side, the upper target is around the daily level 7.38-7.45. This is both the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 level and a daily resistance level. (Short positions wanting to test the waters should wait for the price action here.) In the current market, frankly, it’s best to stay out as there aren’t many entry opportunities in BTC. But you can look at some altcoins with strong, well-structured leaders. For example, Hype already competed fiercely with e-coin last night, rising over 20%. So, which sectors haven’t started yet? Or which altcoins have just broken out of major structures? The market has opportunities every day, although this level of surge...#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
FOMC minutes released with a 9:3 vote, 3 officials advocating for a direct rate hike, internal divisions remain high, let's discuss the real impact on $BTC and $ETH
📌 Market Analysis
Although the rate was kept unchanged this time, 3 members voted against, demanding a rate hike, signaling a covert hawkish stance. The core logic: inflation stickiness hasn't disappeared, high rates will be maintained longer, future data still keeps the option of rate hikes open, not a complete shift to easing. BTC and ETH are risk assets sensitive to USD liquidity:
1) Short term: The market has already priced in some hawkish expectations, likely to see a "bad news is good news" pulse rebound, but the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. If US Treasury yields and the dollar index strengthen again, it will directly suppress the upside for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
2) Medium term: The committee's division means the market is highly tied to US CPI and employment data. If data surprises again, rate hike expectations will heat up, putting downward pressure on BTC and ETH; only a sustained decline in inflation will open the door to a true bull market.
3) Divergence in strength: BTC spot ETF institutional sentiment will be affected by macro disturbances; ETH also faces additional volatility from on-chain staking and DeFi funds, resulting in greater fluctuations than BTC, with higher elasticity on the upside and deeper pullbacks on negative news.
We are currently in a macro divergence window, with news repeatedly stirring the market, so avoid chasing highs. Bitcoin suddenly surged, and Trump gave it a push from behind
This time BTC suddenly shot up from over 60,000 all the way back to 70,000 dollars, and Trump indeed added fuel to the fire.
On August 19, Trump directly met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act. The US's attitude toward continuing to embrace cryptocurrency has become very clear.
However, the real ignition this time was the US Treasury expanding long-term Treasury buybacks. After Treasury yields dropped, market liquidity expectations changed instantly.
Plus, after BTC broke through, shorts were continuously liquidated, ETF funds flowed back in, and several positive factors appeared simultaneously, directly pushing BTC back to 70,000 dollars.
So this surge is not simply Trump calling for a rise; it’s a resonance of policy, liquidity, capital, and short squeeze all together.
If Trump continues to push crypto regulatory bills later and 70,000 dollars can hold steady, I think this round of the market can indeed start to be viewed with a longer-term perspective.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Dogecoin
Reference benchmark: 2026-08-20 Market reference price approximately $0.075
✅ 【Support Levels | Downtrend Holding Zones】 (from near to far)
1. Weak support (short-term first defense): $0.070
Short-term consolidation center; breaking below here signals short-term weakness and likely quick retest of the next level
2. Strong support (key daily buy zone): $0.065–0.067
Recently stabilized dense trading zone, the dividing line between bulls and bears in this round of the market
🟡 【Resistance Levels | Uptrend Pressure Zones】 (from near to far)
1. First resistance (immediate near-term pressure): $0.080
First short-term hurdle; volume must increase and hold above to open upward space
2. Mid-term core resistance: $0.10
Major psychological barrier and historically heavy trading zone, an important test for bulls
3. Mid-level target (strong bull market + positive catalysts): $0.11–0.12
Price breakout alone is useless; volume must be considered: volume significantly increases when hitting resistance for breakout to be valid; low volume rallies tend to fall back.
❗ Most important risk: do not over-leverage!!!! In the past two days, Bitcoin has surged violently. Many people think it's purely due to news impact, but after scouring the news, there are no major positive developments. Essentially, it's a chain short squeeze in the futures market, clearly shown by the liquidation map. Liquidation map data: orange bars represent short position liquidation points. As the price rises, it triggers short position liquidations at corresponding price levels. From 69,000 upward, each level accumulates a large number of high-leverage short positions, with 50-100x leverage accounting for a very high proportion. Every time the price breaks through a level, short positions get liquidated, and market buy orders continue to push the price higher, forming a strong short squeeze rally. This is the main force behind this surge. Looking at multiple timeframes together: On the 15-minute level, RSI has entered the high overbought zone, MACD shows a violent volume increase, and short-term bullish momentum is fully released. But overbought does not mean an immediate reversal; in a short squeeze, overbought can persist, and there is still liquidity above that hasn't been consumed. The 1-hour and 4-hour structures have completely turned upward. Since the recent low at 62,500, lows have been rising continuously, and the trend has switched to bullish dominance. On the daily level, the price has retaken key moving averages, with medium-term resistance near previous highs above. Looking at liquidity positions: Above, there is liquidity from short orders waiting to be consumed between 72,200-73,000. There is a thick accumulation of short position liquidations here. If bullish momentum continues, this area will be further consumed, pushing the price higher. Larger-scale short order liquidity is concentrated near 74,500, which is the ultimate heavy resistance zone for this short squeeze. Below, the defense level for long position liquidation is the first key support at 69,100-69,200. If the price effectively falls below this... This looks more like a broad repricing than a BTC-only breakout. With BTC above $71,900 and ETH leading the 24-hour move, capital is moving further out on the risk curve rather than staying concentrated in the most liquid asset.
My stance is constructive, but the speed matters. Double-digit gains across BTC, ETH and SOL compress the margin for error, so the next useful signal is whether strength holds after the initial impulse, not whether momentum can extend for another session.
Not advice, just analysis.$HYPE surged 20% in one day, seriously overbought, bearish down to 62, add short positions at 75. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
What does this mean for the crypto space? Three levels.
Narrative level: The U.S. government has shifted from "regulatory crackdown" to "reserve buyer." This shift is more important than any single policy.
Policy level: The CLARITY Act + strategic reserves + Hyperliquid compliance + new financing regulations—a combined set of measures launched simultaneously, systematically establishing a regulatory framework.
Capital level: Shorts are being crushed; $1.42 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $1.33 billion from short positions. This big bullish candle is the result of short covering plus positive policy resonance.
Here’s my take.
Bitcoin jumped directly from 64,000 to 72,000, and sentiment is indeed high. But don’t get carried away by one bullish candle—Trump said "discussed," not "executed." The scale, timeline, and funding source of the U.S. government buying crypto have not materialized. This big bullish candle reflects trading expectations, not trading reality.
But the direction of expectations is clear—the U.S. government is shifting from "crypto enemy" to "crypto friend." As long as this narrative is not disproven, the market’s pricing logic will continue in this direction. Next, we’ll see if capital can keep up and whether the CLARITY Act will really pass on September 15.
Be patient; the opportunity for us to short is not far off yet
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Today, the $OKB that should have risen the most barely moved, while BTC, which shouldn't have risen, went up 11%.
This kind of "beta failure" is especially common with platform tokens.
OKX revenue model: contract fees + spot rebates + RWA channel + on-chain staking. In the past 30 days, OKX revenue has risen as much as BTC has, but the platform token transmission has a 3-6 month lag.
Last week, I had dinner with someone inside OKX, and he said, "Q3 business is good, but OKB burn data will only be released in Q4." The meaning is clear: fundamentals are improving, but the token price won't reflect it immediately.
Institutional mindset: wait for the burn data release before pricing. Retail mindset: BTC rose today but OKB didn't, so quickly switch.
Both logics are correct, just different timelines.
Medium-term bullish, short-term no rush. Wait for burn data or exchange announcements as catalysts.
Buy small positions at 100-103, defend at $95. Catalysts are the Q3 burn announcement at the end of September or the X Layer mainnet upgrade. Be patient.
Platform tokens don't follow beta, they follow fundamentals—but fundamentals have a lag.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC price surged to 72000, merely extending the rebound driven by existing funds. Two core doubts in the article remain unresolved:
1. Incremental funds issue
Short-term rallies can be achieved through on-exchange fund rotation and short-term ETF buying. Only with a steady long-term increase in trading volume and a continuous influx of new off-exchange funds can the bull market foundation be solidified; relying solely on existing funds for relay limits the sustainability of the rise.
2. Market differentiation pattern remains unchanged
BTC alone is rising sharply, while most altcoins have not strengthened in sync, failing to form a broad-based rally. In a structural market, the stronger Bitcoin’s one-sided rise, the more long contract positions accumulate. The higher the price, the greater the probability of sudden sharp drops and long-short liquidations.
Two confirmation signals need continued observation:
① Continuous net inflow of ETF funds for multiple days
② Broad market recovery across many coins
As long as these two points do not occur simultaneously, this rally is still defined as a rebound, and significant profit-taking at high levels can happen at any time. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
9 to 3, Fed officials clearly argued in the minutes, with no consensus reached on whether to raise rates
Goldman Sachs also added that the possibility of a rate hike in September is very low, effectively adding another factor to this risk-on wave
Is this good for crypto? I actually think it's a double-edged sword—the dollar being too weak does boost liquidity, but as long as officials keep insisting on rate hikes verbally, the stock market and BTC could shake at any moment
So my judgment is, Bitcoin just broke 69,000, the trend is upward, but before this macro noise settles, don't go all in at once; keep some ammo to add on once the direction is clearer
$BTC $BTC This is simply a short squeeze rally
The core driving force behind the recent surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum $ETH is an epic short squeeze
Be cautious when shorting!
About $2.98 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with short liquidations around $2.74 billion, and Bitcoin shorts about $1.42 billion.
· Over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within just one hour, the largest scale since 2021.
· Three Hyperliquid accounts suffered combined losses of $194 million.
⚠️ Key warning: Coinbase premium index remains negative, indicating that demand in the US spot market has not yet returned. This rally is mainly driven by leverage rather than spot buying support. Glassnode warns that on-chain data is still in the "surrender phase," and until the realized profit-loss ratio surpasses 2, any rebound should be considered a local bounce rather than a fundamental trend reversal.
Macro policy and regulatory tailwinds (core catalysts)
Trump administration's combo moves:
· Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Payward, Blockchain.com, etc., at the White House, urging Congress to pass the "Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act" (Clarity Act). The Senate Banking Committee chair indicated the bill might advance to procedural voting by September 15.
· Trump revealed plans brewing for a large-scale Bitcoin reserve program.
· The SEC proposed a new "Regulation Crypto Assets" framework allowing qualified projects to raise up to $75 million every 12 months, establishing a safe harbor mechanism for tokens to exit "investment contract" classification.
Treasury liquidity easing:
· The US Treasury announced doubling the liquidity support repo scale for 10-30 year Treasuries, raising the per-operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
· The 30-year Treasury yield retreated from about 5.22%, and the dollar weakened, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
It's easy to get trapped chasing a parabolic short squeeze rally; wait for the market to stabilize before entering.
Resistance above: watch the 74,000-75,000 range
Support below:
Support near 68,500, a key level confirming breakout validity
Strong support zone around 66,800-67,200
The above are personal views for reference only
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #Bitcoin's regular rebound from the bottom has greatly increased the probability of successfully establishing a bottom range. As for a bull return? Not that fast! The long-dormant crypto market saw an accelerated rise during the Asia-Europe session, which many friends regard as a bull return. I originally didn't want to dampen spirits, but looking at the Fibonacci on the daily chart, you'll find that it has only just broken out of the bottom range and hasn't even completed an initial rebound yet. Actually, you can refer to the low point on February 6, after which BTC price completed a regular rebound in 41 periods, followed by a breakout rebound, yet still hit a new low at 58,000. Of course, I'm not trying to be bearish or scare anyone. From my perspective, a regular rebound or a strong rebound breaking through 74,200 is good for establishing the bottom range. Once the rebound completes and falls back without breaking the new low, the 58,000 level basically marks the completion of this bottom range. However, to say a new trend has started now seems a bit far-fetched. Currently, it is clearly the Asia-Europe market's sentiment driven by macro policies and the White House crypto meeting. The rise is accompanied by shrinking volume. Next, we need to watch for concentrated selling pressure at 74,200, which could easily cause short-term downside risk or even directly end the rebound trend. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ After all, the current macro-side positive factors are time-sensitive. The White House crypto meeting only changes policy expectations but doesn't push actual policies much, so it is also time-sensitive. Therefore, as time moves into next week, this positive factor is likely to become "history." Next, we can watch how #BTC price performs BTC and ETH Surge: Bull Market or Short Squeeze?
$BTC reached $69.5K, $ETH surged to $2,259, but it is still too early to declare a new bull market cycle. This move was partly driven by Treasury repo, yield declines, and over $1 billion in short liquidations. However, this is not quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve remains cautious, and real yields stay high. $BTC needs to maintain sustained strength above $69K with genuine spot demand—not just leverage-driven. The rebound momentum is strong, but the next move still needs to be confirmed. $BTC $ETH $OKB Many people have asked if I can analyze ETH again, so here is another analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
(Actually, I’m more optimistic about $BTC now. ETH has rallied so much, but BTC clearly hasn’t kept up. I guess it will start to rise soon. Are there any brave ones charging ahead?)
1. The trigger is the U.S. Treasury
The scale of long-term bond repurchases has directly doubled to at least $4 billion each time, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield immediately dropped by 10 basis points. The hand choking the crypto market has loosened, and the bulls who were suppressed all summer have instantly bounced back. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $71.47 million on the same day, with institutional funds turning from outflows to inflows — this signal is even more valuable than the price increase itself.
2. This rally is supported by "fuel"
In 24 hours, 175,000 people across the network were liquidated, with short liquidations exceeding $1.7 billion, the second largest short squeeze in history. The largest single on-chain liquidation was $108 million, from a main address called pension — a heavily short position under the name of a pension fund, showing serious confidence. After shorts were forcibly liquidated, they were forced to buy back, which in turn pushed the price up, causing more liquidations and further price increases.
3. My judgment
RSI has reached 83, overheated and overbought, so chasing higher at this point is not cost-effective. The key is the 2200-2300 range: if it holds, 2400-2500 is within reach; if it breaks below 2100, this rally will be just a spring dream. My plan is to wait for a pullback to 2200-2250 to stabilize before continuing to enter in batches. Good meals aren’t afraid of being late, and good men aren’t afraid of waiting. Those already on board can hold. BTC can be bought, just be bold and go for it. My personal feeling: the rise will start this afternoon or tonight.FOMC minutes 9 to 3, yet BTC surged past 70,000: Who does the market really trust?
This minutes report should have cooled down risk assets: 9 votes supported keeping rates unchanged, 3 votes sided with a rate hike, showing more disagreement than the market expected. But the market completely ignored the script, with BTC pushing from around 64,000 all the way to 71,369 USD, up 4.11% in 24 hours; ETH was even more dramatic, surging to 2,275 USD, a gain of over 9%.
Watching this rally, my first reaction wasn’t "the Fed turned dovish," but that the market is trading something else: the Treasury raised the single-repurchase limit on 10–30 year U.S. Treasuries from 2 billion USD to at least 4 billion USD, causing long-term yields to fall, and liquidity expectations temporarily outweighed rate hike disagreements. But note, repos are not QE.
Add in concentrated short covering, and prices naturally move faster than the news.
So is this rally the start of a bull market, or a short squeeze amid policy conflicts? For now, I lean toward the latter. BTC’s real proof of strength isn’t just hitting 70,000, but holding 70,000 on a pullback; ETH’s key level is 2,250—holding that is needed to have confidence to push to 2,400.
Brothers, do you trust the Fed’s 9 to 3 vote, or the price that’s already surged past 70,000?
$BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Bitcoin surged past 70,000 overnight, and everyone is shouting "bull is coming." Has the bull really arrived?
From the data, it certainly seems so. Bitcoin jumped over 8% in a single day, reaching 70,000 at one point; Ethereum was even more dramatic, rising nearly 20% intraday, shooting from 1900 straight to 2300. Short positions across the entire network were liquidated in 24 hours, with over 2.7 billion in liquidations.
The last time Bitcoin rose more than 7% in a day was in April this year. This wave has directly recovered all the losses from the past two months, with prices returning to early June levels. The total market cap increased by 7.2% in one day, from 2.26 trillion to 2.45 trillion. Secondary altcoins saw a rare almost all-green day.
Before this wave, CZ posted a tweet implying he believes the bottom is already in; Wang Chun even boldly declared the slogan "the bear market is over."
But in my view, this still looks more like a rebound rather than a reversal.
The three positive factors driving this market rise are all somewhat exaggerated. The market rally is driven by speculation on expectations, not by what these positives can truly deliver.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 August 20 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis
The core driving force behind Bitcoin's current rally has shifted to expectations of regulatory improvements, with macro factors taking a backseat, creating a divergence pattern of "hawkish news, rising coin prices." BTC surged violently from 64k to around 70k, with nearly $3 billion liquidated in a single day, representing a large-scale short squeeze. Shorts were forced to cover, pushing prices up, dominated by non-spot funds, raising doubts about sustainability.
Ethereum experienced an epic short squeeze with an 18% single-day surge. The core driving forces are the US Treasury's expansion of Treasury repurchase operations, the SEC's new crypto asset regulations, and the White House crypto summit, all resonating positively. The short-term cost-performance ratio for chasing highs is extremely low.
Operation advice:
Short $BTC $ETH $SOL on rebounds to 71,000-71,500 #BTC breaks through $69,000, how far can this rally go?
$BTC Breaking down the BTC breakout is more interesting than just focusing on the 11% increase. In the past 24 hours, Binance perpetual open interest increased by about 3.5% in BTC quantity but rose nearly 15% in USD nominal value; at the start of the sharp rally, contract quantity briefly fell by about 1.7%. This means the initial surge clearly involved short position reductions and squeezes, not just new leveraged longs pushing prices up.
Subsequently, the ratio of active buy orders remains around 1.25, and the funding rate is only 0.01%, so the structure is temporarily favorable to the bulls; the risk is that the top long positions have already risen to 61.2%. In the short term, it is expected to first digest positions between 70,000 and 72,500. Only a volume breakout above 72,500 would create conditions to extend to 74,000–75,000; if price and open interest weaken simultaneously and fall below 69,200, then beware of a retreat in this short squeeze rally.$DOGE is also rising, but this is Beta, not love, don’t get carried away.
Last night DOGE pulled from the dead box at 0.070 up to 0.076 in one move, a +7% daily gain, with 24-hour volume increasing from 300 million to 750 million. It looks like a breakout, but this wave has nothing to do with DOGE itself. No Musk, no payment adoption, no ETF news—purely BTC short squeeze lifting the entire alt sentiment. It’s the easiest high beta meme coin to be swept by funds.
Technically, it’s a real breakout. The 0.068-0.070 range had been resistance for almost two weeks, and 0.074-0.075 was strong resistance, which was directly broken last night. But the problem is, the previous wave on 8/19 we labeled as "do not touch"—pure meme, no catalyst, Bollinger Bands extremely tight. Today’s move just opened the box but didn’t change the essence of "no own story."
Buying it lets you get a taste, but don’t treat it as the main course yet. The temperament of meme coins is that when BTC retraces to 66,600, DOGE will give back a large part of its gains.BTC surpasses $68,000, with over $1 billion in short liquidations — now the real variable in the market is not the sustainability of the rally but the speed of derivatives position reshuffling. After the short squeeze ends, will there still be enough buying power to support $68,000? Bitcoin surged from the $64,000 range to break through $68,000. During the rally, more than $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within an hour, fueling the price increase. The market is currently at a crossroads, debating whether this surge is just a short squeeze or the start of a new trend. Looking at the structure of the liquidation event, this rise is the result of an imbalance in the derivatives market. The accumulated short positions near $64,000 were forcibly liquidated once the price broke a certain level, turning into buying pressure. This means that leveraged positions in the futures market acted as an amplifier for the price surge. Therefore, the current price level is driven more by the reshuffling of positions in the derivatives market than by spot demand. Now the key is $68,000 🇺🇸 Trump's statement "End the war on Crypto" is truly worth paying attention to, and it's not just a slogan.
More importantly: the U.S. stance on the crypto industry is changing.
In the past, Crypto was more like a financial risk that needed to be restricted; banks were treated cautiously, and capital faced regulatory pressure.
Now, the signals from the U.S. are becoming increasingly clear:
Banks can enter, capital can enter, and financial infrastructure can be rebuilt around Crypto. (Reuters)
This means that future competition may no longer be about "whether Crypto can exist," but rather:
Who can first integrate BTC, stablecoins, tokenization, and on-chain finance into the dollar system.
If this direction continues, BTC's identity may further evolve—
From a pure investment asset to an important foundational asset in the U.S. digital financial system.
So, what’s truly worth focusing on is not "the war is over."
But rather:
After the war ends, the U.S. begins to compete for the discourse power over the next generation of financial infrastructure.
And this may be the real big opportunity for BTCFi. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 At the moment BTC surged to 68K, I actually wasn't that excited. Who exactly is this rally paying off? To be honest, watching the market this morning, my first reaction wasn't "the bull is back," but rather "the shorts got liquidated again." BTC shot up from around 64K to above 68K in one go, liquidating over 1 billion USD worth of short positions within an hour. This kind of speed isn't something natural buying pressure can create. Don't rush to call the top yet; there are a few details worth unpacking here. The core pricing driver of this rally isn't "BTC getting stronger," but rather "shorts being too crowded." When leveraged funds repeatedly test and add short positions between 64K and 66K, once the price breaks a certain threshold, the liquidation engine automatically kicks in, pushing the price even higher. So the 68K you see now is partly real buying and partly mechanical momentum from forced liquidations. But here's the problem: liquidation-driven rallies fear the lack of follow-through. - If 68K can hold steady for three days and ETH and altcoins start strengthening in sync, it means capital is truly returning and risk appetite is indeed rising. - If BTC stands alone while altcoins quietly decline, this rally looks more like a leverage reset rather than a trend reversal. My own observation is that the main focus should currently be on sector strength. BTC is strong, ETH is barely keeping up, and altcoins are highly divergent. This structure often means the main funds are still hesitant, just using BTC$SPCX is approaching its second major share unlock tonight, involving approximately 319 million shares, or around 2.4% of the company’s total outstanding shares. For comparison, the first unlock took place on August 6, when roughly 912 million shares were released. That event coincided with the earnings report, creating a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern. Before the earnings release, $SPCX climbed from around $120 to $140. After the unlock, however, the stock reversed sharply and The hotter the market, the more important position management becomes. Here's a simple and executable framework to share:
1️⃣ Single coin cap 30%: No matter how optimistic you are, a single coin should not exceed 30% of the total position to prevent a single black swan event;
2️⃣ Contract margin ≤10%: The total margin for leveraged positions should not exceed 10% of total funds, so even if liquidated, it won't hurt your capital;
3️⃣ Three-layer capital method:
• Base position (60%): BTC/ETH and other mainstream coins, held long-term without moving;
• Swing position (25%): Follow hot rotations, take profits and exit;
• Cash (15%): Always keep bullets ready, only qualified to bottom-fish during crashes.
Two iron rules:
• No borrowing, no leverage for bottom-fishing — this is the number one cause of liquidation;
• Take partial profits when floating gains exceed 50%, only realized profits count.
In a bull market, everyone is a stock god; in a bear market, you find out who's swimming naked. Your position is your swimsuit.
(Original content, not investment advice, DYOR)
#PositionManagement #DryGoods #BTCBreaks69000USD How far can this rally go? #FedJulyFOMCMinutes 9-3, officials still divided on rate hikes $BTC $ETHWhy is $BTC rising this time?
Just after mentioning the "triple drivers," let me elaborate a bit more; this time, the landscape may need to be reassessed.
Looking back at the market trends over the past few years, every truly meaningful trend rally in Bitcoin has had to meet three conditions simultaneously: clear regulation, loose macro liquidity, and inflow of incremental capital.
This time, it seems all three are moving in a positive direction.
First layer: regulation has shifted from "confrontation" to "dialogue." The SEC has proposed a "safe harbor" for token financing for the first time, and the White House crypto summit has changed from "crackdown" to "guidance." The establishment of these fundamental rules is more important than any short-term positive news.
Second layer: Bitcoin's macro attributes are evolving. The drop in U.S. Treasury yields is a short-term sentiment, but the long-term logic of fiat depreciation under a $1.8 trillion deficit is gradually turning Bitcoin from a "risk asset" into an "alternative asset." Names like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan appearing on ETF holder lists are not here for short-term speculation.
Third layer: pricing power is shifting. Although the coin price fell in Q2, institutional ETF holdings grew counter-trend by 7.5%, indicating that chips are concentrating from retail investors to large holders. "The bull's quick return" can be a slogan, but "what you bought, how much you bought, and where your stop loss is" are the keys to whether you survive to the next round.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Brothers, I am Xiao Ai from the OKX planet.
It is now 5 PM on August 20th. More than ten hours have passed since last night's frenzy of liquidating $1.191 billion worth of short positions.
Many people see BTC steady at 69,400 and ETH hovering around 2,250, and start itching inside: "Is it stable now? Can we chase?"
Xiao Ai's answer is straightforward: this kind of 'calm after a surge' is scarier than last night's rally.
Last night was "violent aesthetics," today is "psychological warfare."
Last night, the main force used the $1.191 billion short liquidation orders as fuel to push the price to the doorstep of 70,000. What is the main force doing in this afternoon's market? They are "testing the market."
Look at the 15-minute K-line chart; the current trend is a typical "low-volume sideways consolidation." The price can't fall, indicating that the profit-taking positions from last night haven't exited yet; the price can't rise, indicating that the 70,000 round number resistance is real. This "can't go up, can't go down" situation is most exhausting for the bulls' patience.
Here is a harsh truth: it costs the main force to push the price up, but it costs nothing to dump it down.
Last night, pushing the price from 64,000 to 70,000 cost the main force billions of dollars; now, to distribute chips at the 69k level, they only need to withdraw buy orders and let the market naturally fall back. At this afternoon's time (end of Asian session, start of European session, before US session), liquidity is relatively scarce. The main force chooses to "hold sideways" during this period, waiting for the US retail investors with FOMO (fear of missing out) to enter after the US market opens.
Looking at the technicals, although RSI has fallen from last night's high of 87, it is still above 70 in the overbought zone. On ETH's 4-hour chart, the MACD red bars are shortening, and the fast and slow lines show a death cross trend. This technical pattern is called "bullish momentum exhaustion" by traders.
More importantly, volume. Last night's surge was "huge volume," today's sideways consolidation is "extremely low volume." Price increases without volume are rogue moves; sideways consolidation without volume is "bull trap."
Brothers, Xiao Ai will not predict price direction today, only logic:
If BTC cannot break above 70,000 with volume and hold after the US market opens tonight, then last night's high is the short-term top.
If BTC breaks below the 69,000 support, the correction target will be 67,500 (the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of last night's rise).
The current market is like a stretched rubber band. Last night’s pull was too strong, now it needs time to repair. There are two ways to repair: one is sideways consolidation, exchanging time for space; the other is a quick correction, exchanging space for time.
My advice to brothers remains: control your hands and fasten your seatbelts.
1. Spot traders: If you held at the low last night, you can now set a "trailing take profit," for example, automatically exit if it retraces 5% to lock in profits.
2. Futures traders: This "low-volume sideways" is a leverage killer. The main force only needs a 1% fake breakout to kill both longs and shorts. It is recommended to stay out of the market and wait for a clear direction after the US market opens.
3. Those out of the market: Patience is the greatest virtue. If it truly breaks 70,000, you only miss the tail of the fish; if it truly corrects, you protect your principal.
Finally, Xiao Ai must repeat the compliance disclaimer:
This article is only a personal review note, compiled based on public market data (CoinGlass/OKX snapshots), does not constitute any investment advice, does not guide account opening, does not promise returns, and does not provide managed services. Digital assets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be responsible for your own funds.
Last night, we witnessed the short-sellers' tragedy of $1.191 billion;
Tonight, we may witness whether the bulls can hold their ground.
I am Xiao Ai, on the OKX planet, accompanying you to understand the swordplay behind the market.I thought “VIP signal teacher Trump” was just a meme. Then the headlines hit. Trump is pushing the US toward a more crypto-friendly regulatory framework, backing the CLARITY Act and aiming to keep America at the center of the global crypto industry. The CFTC is also reportedly exploring a compliant path for Hyperliquid in the US — and $HYPE reacted instantly. Now the bigger picture makes sense: BTC had liquidity expectations from the US Treasury repo side. Trump added a fresh layer of regulatoryReviewed the 205 coins on Alpha that have perpetual contracts but no spot market, median drawdown is -44%. To put it simply, half of them are hovering around the halving line, and only 24 have truly broken through 70%.
So this isn't a drop to a position where no one wants them, it's stuck halfway up the mountain—not quite up or down, the most uncomfortable kind.
Looking at the chips: 84 are inverted with retail investors more bullish than whales, while whales are long on only 47. After halving, retail investors are still adding in; I lean bearish on this structure. The entire sector's open interest is just $1299M, the market is too thin, so the rebound can't gain momentum.In the past two days, Bitcoin surged straight back to the 70,000 mark, with $1.2 billion worth of short positions liquidated within a single hour. Many people hadn’t even reacted before the market rallied. On the surface, it looks like short covering pushed the price up, but the real trigger was actually two events coinciding: the Treasury Department signaling an expansion of U.S. Treasury bond liquidity purchases, combined with regulatory optimism from the White House crypto summit, which directly ignited market sentiment. The U.S. Treasury Department recently announced it will double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, increasing from $2 billion per month to at least $4 billion, specifically to support liquidity for 10- to 30-year Treasuries. This will be effective from September 9 through November 4. Many say this is a "disguised QE," which is a bit exaggerated, but the logic holds. While the Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet, the Treasury stepping in to buy long-term bonds essentially injects liquidity into the bond market to stabilize yields. The scale isn’t massive quantitative easing, but the signal is significant — it’s a clear message to the market that if the bond market becomes unstable, the Treasury will step in to support it. With pressure easing in the bond market and liquidity less tight, risk assets naturally rally first. There’s no need to overinterpret this move; it’s more like a "holding tactic" rather than full-scale easing. But the expectation it conveys is important: the market doesn’t need to worry about U.S. Treasuries spiraling out of control; there is a liquidity floor. On the same day, Trump held a crypto industry summit at the White House, with many key figures from the sector attending. The most watched topic was when he was asked, "Will the government massively increase its Bitcoin holdings?" Trump’s answer was leftBrothers, I am Xiao Ai from the OKX planet.
It is now 5 PM on August 20th. More than ten hours have passed since last night’s huge bullish candle that crushed the shorts to the ground.
Looking back: BTC surged from around 64,000 last night, reaching an intraday high of 69,749–70,000 USDT, a 24h increase of 6.69%, hitting a new high since June 2; ETH rose from around 1,920 to a peak of 2,133, a 24h increase of 9.05%, closing at 2,089.96, the highest level since May 27. CoinGlass shows 1.345 billion USD liquidations across the network in the past 24h, with 1.191 billion USD from short liquidations, including 662 million USD in BTC shorts and 366 million USD in ETH shorts, forcing 105,000 traders out of the market.
But what I want to say is: last night’s frenzy is over, and today’s “quiet” market this afternoon is the real battleground that will decide the next move.
Currently (17:00 snapshot), BTC is oscillating narrowly between 69,400–69,500, ETH is hovering around 2,250–2,260 (some aggregated quotes have fallen back to the 2,087 range, reflecting cross-exchange price differences). On the surface, it looks like “sideways at a high level,” but breaking it down reveals three details:
First, volume has collapsed dramatically. Last night’s surge was accompanied by huge 15-minute volume bars, but this afternoon’s same-level K-line volume is just a fraction. The price didn’t drop after the rally, but it also didn’t continue to push higher—this is a typical state of profit holders reluctant to sell and high-level buyers watching cautiously. The main players have finished liquidating shorts (the 1.191 billion USD fuel is burned out), so there’s no need to immediately push a second rally with real money.
Second, indicators are moving from “stagnation” to “recovery.” Last night BTC’s RSI(6) hit 87, ETH’s KDJ J value reached 95, indicating extreme overbought conditions; this afternoon these values are retreating sideways at high levels, and the 4h timeframe is starting to flatten. This is not a reversal, but a “technical breather after a surge.” But you should know: after the breather, either volume expands for a second push to 70,000, or it dips to 68,000 to shake out profit takers. A prolonged sideways move must choose a direction.
Third, the macro shoe hasn’t dropped yet. Last night’s catalysts were the doubling of long-term US Treasury repo (30-year yield dropped from 5.34% to 5.19%), a White House closed-door crypto meeting, and continued ETF net inflows. But these are “expectations,” not “realizations.” Any upcoming Fed statements, Treasury’s September repo operations, or SEC crypto framework details could shake the 69k level again.
So my advice to brothers remains the same:
• Those who bought spot at low levels last night are now in the most comfortable position—profits are well buffered, don’t get shaken out by a single spike, but also don’t mistake a “pullback” for the end of a shakeout to add more;
• Those who chased at 69.8k / 2,300 last night, this afternoon’s sideways move is your time to recalculate: whether you can withstand a 5% retracement is more important than guessing tops or bottoms;
• For contract traders, this kind of “low-volume high-level” is a leverage killer; the cost of a spike is lowest, so it’s recommended to reduce leverage, cut losses, and avoid betting on breakouts;
• For those with no position, don’t rush this afternoon; waiting for the 4h candle close to confirm whether 69k holds is much cheaper than guessing direction at 69.4k.
Many ask me: why didn’t you short at the highest point last night?
Because I never guess the spike tip. What can be said at that level is “shorts got crushed badly, bulls don’t get overconfident, 70k is a chip wall,” not “short now.” It’s the same this afternoon—what can be said is “whether the post-surge market is consolidating or distributing,” not “buy now/sell now.”
The most expensive four words in the digital asset market are “this time is different.”
Last night’s 1.191 billion USD short liquidation told bulls: the trend is unstoppable.
Today’s quiet afternoon tells everyone: the trend is here, but it won’t surge every day; it will filter out those not buckled up.
I am Xiao Ai, on the OKX planet, only tracking the market, analyzing sentiment, no pie in the sky.
Last night’s 70k was the beginning of the story; today’s 69.4k sideways is the punctuation on how the story continues. $BTC The important distinction is between strategic intent and executable policy. Trump’s call for the US to accumulate a “substantial amount” of BTC and other crypto, alongside support for CLARITY, stablecoin legislation and a CBDC ban, signals a broader effort to shape digital-asset leadership.
BTC topping $69,000 and ETH surging show the market’s sensitivity to that signal. But without a purchase size, timeline or formal authorization, reserve expectations remain ahead of implementation. A durable repricing would likely require Congress and policy machinery to turn rhetoric into a defined framework.
Not advice, just analysis.
#TrumpEyesMoreBTC $ETH didn’t spend five years ranging for no reason The 2021 cycle pushed valuations far ahead of fundamentals Then came tightening, leverage unwinding, the collapse of speculative demand and a complete reset in how the market valued ETH Every rally into the range was sold That created a massive equilibrium between supply and demand But the structure is changing ETH has now returned to the same upper boundary that rejected it for years A clean breakout would mean the market has finally absorbed Gold holds steady at $4400
I'm still holding on, next target is $4700
This gold position is really getting more comfortable now.
Yesterday, spot gold directly broke through $4500, reaching a high of $4525.79. Although there was some profit-taking today, the price still remains around $4480 to $4510, so now it's not just about defending $4400, but starting to try to make $4500 the new consolidation range.
The biggest driver of this wave is still the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, causing long bond yields to drop and the dollar to weaken, which is very direct for gold.
Moreover, US debt has already surpassed $40 trillion, so the long-term fiscal logic hasn't disappeared.
I started buying around $4000, and my view hasn't changed much since.
If $4400 holds, I'll keep holding; once $4500 is firmly established, the next target is still $4700.
It's normal to have some pullbacks in between, and I actually don't want to move this position recklessly now.
$XAU $XAUT $XAG $CORE's major bull market is exploding across the board, so why is $CORE still stagnant?
In this round, BTC, ETH, and SOL collectively experienced violent short squeezes, with mainstream coins broadly rising, but CORE, which focuses on the BTCFi narrative, has clearly lagged behind. Although the narrative centers on Bitcoin ecosystem infrastructure and a Bitcoin bull market, the token price has not taken off accordingly. Behind this are multiple real-world contradictions involving narrative, token supply, ecosystem, and competition within the sector.
1. Token Supply Side: Continuous Selling Pressure, Historical Locked Positions Like a Mountain
1) Token supply pressure: total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with only 60% currently circulating. The remaining tokens are continuously and linearly released through mining and team allocations, constantly adding new tokens to the market, while demand has not kept pace with inflationary release.
2) Heavy historical locked positions: from the peak of $6.47, the price has dropped over 99%, accumulating a massive amount of locked tokens above. Any slight rebound triggers unlocking and sell-offs, and every rally is suppressed by selling pressure.
3) Small market cap: large incremental funds are reluctant to enter easily. The circulating market cap is not high; large funds can pump the price when entering but find it difficult to exit, making institutional investors cautious.
2. The Narrative Is Attractive, but On-Chain Real Data Has Yet to Materialize
- Positive story: positioned as Bitcoin DeFi underlying infrastructure, offering BTC staking, lending, lstBTC liquid staking, SatPay applications. The logic is that in a Bitcoin bull market, a large amount of idle BTC will come on-chain to generate yield, and CORE will capture the dividends.
- Reality gap: user numbers are slowly recovering, but native on-chain TVL remains very small, mostly consisting of cross-chain assets. Native on-chain blockbuster applications are scarce; although the ecosystem appears large, truly sustained on-chain funds and ordinary users are limited. Many projects deploy across multiple chains without forming exclusive ecosystem advantages.
- Revenue aspect: on-chain fee income has increased but remains small overall. The protocol revenue buyback mechanism has just started, and the buyback scale is insufficient to offset market selling pressure. This is a long-term logic and unlikely to drive short-term surges.
Simply put: the story has been told, but on-chain data has not caught up with the narrative's imagination. The market no longer pays solely for narrative but looks at real TVL and real protocol revenue.
3. Intense Competition Within the Sector, BTCFi Is Not Dominated by CORE Alone
After BTC became the market's main theme, many competitors entered the BTC-Fi sector. Stacks, Babylon, and Rootstock compete simultaneously, each vying for Bitcoin staking and Bitcoin DeFi market share.
- Stacks has native BTC staking, with rewards paid directly in BTC, gaining strong recognition from the native Bitcoin community;
- Babylon focuses on Bitcoin restaking;
CORE's dual staking mechanism requires staking CORE for high yields, which raises concerns among some native Bitcoin community members. The sector is fragmented, and funds are diverted among multiple parties, not concentrated solely on CORE.
4. Market Capital Siphoning Effect, Bull Market Does Not Mean Universal Gains
This round is driven by policy, ETFs, and short-seller liquidations causing short squeezes. On-exchange funds prioritize BTC, ETH, and SOL, the strongest consensus leading assets.
Incremental funds are limited and prioritize buying the most certain mainstream assets. Small coins and narrative-driven tokens get drained. Even in a bull market, "the strong get stronger, the weak get weaker" applies. CORE will only have its market window when the main theme rotates to the BTCFi sector.
When will CORE have a chance to start?
1) Overall sector rotation in BTCFi, with funds collectively flowing back to Bitcoin Layer 2/sidechain sectors;
2) Core products like lstBTC and SatPay successfully launch, with on-chain TVL and protocol revenue showing real explosive growth, and buyback scale truly expanding;
3) Selling pressure unlocks weaken, and the market digests the heavy historical locked positions.
Risk Warning
Narrative does not equal token price. Even if the sector logic holds, there will be a long waiting period. Small-cap tokens are highly volatile; even in a bull market, there is a risk of underperforming the broader market. Do not blindly take heavy positions to speculate on expectations.
$CORE $BTC $ETH💰 Bitcoin’s spot demand is about to turn positive for the first time since February.
Historically, that’s meant a +18.1% median gain over the next 60 days, with a 78% win rate.
With valuations this depressed, the win rate jumps to 87%.CORE vs. SOL: Why a Big Drop Doesn’t Guarantee a Big Rebound The biggest self-delusion in the $CORE community may be the constant comparison with SOL and the belief that CORE is destined for a similar comeback. Many holders trapped in long-term losses look to SOL’s historical performance for hope. After enduring endless volatility, gradual declines, and mounting paper losses, it is understandable that people search for examples that justify continuing to hold. But using someone else’s comeback s#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
AI I keep my distance from this line. Today's surge was assisted by AI narratives, but on the profit statement, it remains a drag.
Market page: Q2 R&D 9.2 billion, +18.9% year-on-year; Lei Jun said 100 billion will be invested in the next five years, 60 billion in AI over three years. MiMo-V2.5 ranks first with 10.5 trillion tokens called weekly on OpenRouter, and the robot model also took first place in evaluations, full marks for technical narrative.
But monetization is just starting—AI revenue is only counted as "other related income 1 billion," far from covering the 9.2 billion R&D. The more exciting the story, the colder the report.
I'm not saying AI has no value; in the short term, it consumes profit without generating profit. Pricing for the story, I am bearish.
$XIAOMI $ETH This huge daily candlestick ended consolidation in the same price area, giving me a feeling similar to last year.
Obviously, this is just a comparison; the price movement is unlikely to be exactly the same afterward, but it's still worth pointing out because it's so similar.
You don't often see such a large daily candlestick. But the last time this happened, I saw many people rushing to short, and the next two days saw an additional +20% rise.There is a question, I wonder if everyone has noticed:
1. The liquidation volume of $BTC is getting lower and lower, from over 1 billion unilaterally at the beginning of the year, to 600+ million in April-May, and now only 200-300 million.
2. Currently, mainstream exchanges' contract trading volume is dominated by US stocks, gold, silver, and crude oil.
3. We see that US stocks with high heat and volatility attract huge interest, and their large fluctuations bring more liquidations and forced closures.
So, have you noticed: during the crypto winter, exchanges have introduced US stocks, gold, silver, and crude oil futures to attract more traffic, which further diverts the already limited liquidity in the crypto space.
For exchanges, this means more traffic and trading volume.
But for crypto, it means a reduction in capital, less attention and support amid more choices, leading to more boring oscillations and potentially more severe volatility.
This is why I believe this is not the bottom, because the support for $BTC here is too weak. Previously, people only had a few options like BTC and ETH to buy the dip, but now there are more US stocks, even Hong Kong stocks. Moreover, stocks have harvested more retail investors' funds.
So the support for $BTC is much weaker, and any manipulation or black swan event could cause a much more terrifying drop.Today, $HYPE has risen significantly. The fundamental reason is that Trump said he would push this project into the U.S. market. If it really makes it into the U.S., that would be a good thing. However, entering the U.S. is not easy. From the wording, we can also see that it is an effort to introduce, not a definite introduction. This indicates that, under current laws and regulations, it is almost impossible for it to enter the United States. This means that if it wants to enter the United States, new laws and regulations are necessary. In fact, it is very difficult to advance a new law or regulation in the United States. So, in the short term, it is almost impossible for it to enter the United States. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract open interest increased in the afternoon today, while the corresponding long-short ratio of contracts declined. This shows that during $HYPE's midday rebound today, there were many bears in the market. The market is currently not optimistic about the overall trend, and personally, I am not very optimistic either. Based on my analysis of this data, I infer that it is very likely just a rebound. Let's take a look at data from a slightly longer period. It can be seen that from last night until now, as its price rises, its open interest has been climbing steadily, while the corresponding long-short ratio is declining. This shows that there are indeed many short sellers currently selling. —————————————————— I don't believe in this rebound, mainly because I don't trust Trump. Trump in the past$BTC stayed up all night trying to figure out why it surged like this
Summarized some reasons that could cause such a sharp rise
The U.S. Treasury announced a bond repurchase plan, which led to fewer bonds in the market. With fewer bonds, prices go up, yields go down, and with lower yields, people stop buying them. Large funds then shift to gold and btc. This is my personal take for now. What do you all think? #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 With the Senate vote approaching in mid-September, the interest rate spread between the banking sector's 0.3% demand deposit rate and the 5% yield on government bonds is driving the implementation of the CLARITY Act. Centralized platform stablecoin interest returns face compliance suppression, adding further uncertainty to cross-border capital flows.
The core contradiction in the current market lies in the redistribution of interest allocation rights. Traditional banks' defensive need to maintain a 4.7% net interest margin suppresses the interest return space of centralized exchanges, while on-chain permissionless protocols enjoy exemptions, making the 4.5% to 5.2% excess collateralized lending yields a safe haven for capital.
The primary variables in order of influence are the finalization progress of regulatory bill provisions, the outflow rate of funds from centralized exchanges, and the scale of capital locked in on-chain lending protocols. The bill's suppressive effect on risk appetite is driving positions to shift from centralized zero-interest wallets to on-chain liquidity pools.
The bullish scenario is based on the bill's exemption clauses clearly protecting on-chain protocols. If the mid-September vote confirms that on-chain lending is not subject to centralized interest return bans, assets like $USDC will accelerate inflows into permissionless protocols, locking in lossless yields above 4.5%, boosting total on-chain locked value and risk appetite. The invalidation signal for this scenario would be the bill's last-minute addition of penetrating regulatory language targeting decentralized protocols.
The bearish scenario stems from comprehensive regulatory tightening triggering risk-off sell-offs. If the Senate vote passes a blanket ban on all forms of stablecoin interest returns, market expectations for compliant stablecoin yield will be wiped out, and capital may temporarily shrink into cash or government bond substitutes, thereby reducing overall liquidity. The trigger condition for this scenario is a bill amendment stripping on-chain protocols of their exemption status.
The boundary for judging the failure of the dominant trend lies in whether the idle funds in centralized exchanges show abnormal inflows. If the scale of idle wallets on exchanges rises instead of falling before the bill's enactment, it indicates the market prefers to forgo the underlying 4.8% interest in exchange for absolute liquidity, necessitating a shift to a liquidity tightening narrative.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are changes in the definition of permissionless lending protocols in the Senate draft amendment text, and the net transfer volume of $USDC between centralized wallets and leading on-chain protocols.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
Objective Data
The single transaction limit for long-term bond repos has been raised from 2 billion to 4 billion, effective September 9. Following the announcement, the 30-year yield fell from 5.34% to 5.19%, risk assets strengthened, $BTC surged accordingly, and short positions were heavily liquidated; note this is a Treasury liquidity tool, not a Federal Reserve QE balance sheet expansion.
Market Surface Consensus
A disguised liquidity injection, interest rate pressure relieved, a new round of rally established in the crypto space.
Underlying Logic Analysis
The goal is to improve liquidity in the long-term bond market, not direct money printing. Funds come from the Treasury account, fundamentally different from QE. Short-term suppression of long-end yields benefits crypto assets but is a temporary fix; it cannot change the Fed’s rate hike divergence or the constraints of potential inflation rebound. Sentiment catalysts can boost the market but cannot solely drive a major bull market.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual bull market return, just personal opinion, not investment advice)
This is a macro-level positive boost, not a guarantee of trend. Going forward, focus on whether US bond yields stabilize and if ETF inflows continue; do not rely solely on this event to keep pushing the market higher. #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
Storage stocks are about to split into two universes!
SanDisk bragged yesterday, but today it got slammed to the ground. It opened down over 9%, closed down about 3.5%, while Western Digital and Seagate fell even harder. One day it rose 8.7% hitting a record high, the next day it turned completely sour—this rollercoaster ride is even more thrilling than altcoins!
Do you know what the bulls and bears are arguing about?
The bulls say: SanDisk painted a stunning picture—by 2030, data center Flash demand will reach 1.2ZB, with 8 long-term contracts signed totaling over $93.9 billion, gross margin hitting 80% and operating margin 75% from 2028 to 2030, and all excess cash 100% returned to shareholders. This isn’t a storage company, it’s a money printing machine!
The bears fire back: Junjie Xia from Renqiao Asset said, "The storage industry has very likely peaked," scaring the entire sector. Making decades’ worth of profits in one year, results that defy common sense are often short-lived. Changxin is rising, and supply-demand conflicts will clearly ease by the end of 2027. The stock market reacting and confirming the peak more than a year in advance is reasonable.
My stance is simple: I’m just watching the show, not taking sides. AI storage demand is real, long-term contracts locking in profits are real, but the stock price going from 235 to 2354 then halving to 1741—chasing at this level? No way. Shorting? Even less so. I’ll wait until the "expectations" and "reality" accounts are settled.
Brothers, do you think storage stocks are a golden pit or a peak signal? Fight it out in the comments!