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The divergence in storage stocks is less a verdict on AI demand than a reminder that long-term targets and near-term valuation discipline operate on different clocks. Sandisk’s rebound on Aug 19 still gave way to a roughly 3.5% loss by the close, while Western Digital and Seagate fell more.
My read: Sandisk’s targets may provide a useful valuation reference for Micron, as BofA suggested, but the sector still needs evidence that NAND pricing, contract execution and AI server demand can support those assumptions. Until then, selective repricing looks more rational than a broad storage rerating. Not advice, just analysis.
#StorageValuationSplit🚨 $RECALL — SOMETHING BROKE
In 15 minutes, the volume exploded by 8.1 times, while the price dropped by 3.6%.
Too sudden to just ignore. 👀
Currently, the price is around the 0.04602–0.04610 zone.
If the pressure continues, I’m looking at:
🔻 0.04560
🔻 0.04506
🔻 0.04451
But there is an important level — 0.04684.
A return above it completely changes the picture.
$RECALL clearly decided to add volatility today. 🔥 The $ETH long position at 1909, 100x leverage, is now marked around 2246 with an unrealized profit of 1762%. Honestly, when I see numbers like this, I pause—not because of how much I've earned, but because this is no longer a typical swing trade; it's a low leverage multiplier meeting a large-scale single move/segment.
At the time, I was looking at the 1-hour chart: it couldn't drop below around 1900, there was support, 1908-1910 held, and volume started to pick up, so I dared to go long. Now switching to the 4-hour chart, it shows a sudden volume surge and breakout from the 1852-1910 consolidation zone, peaking at 2342, currently consolidating near 2247. The 24-hour volume is close to 7.9 million ETH and 17.7 billion USDT; this is not small money playing around, mainstream capital is truly flowing back.
But I'm more cautious now. After the upper wick/spike at 2342, many short-term traders will chase, and profit-taking is present. Resistance is seen between 2300-2342, while layered support lies at 2200, 2100, and 2000-2050. With 100x leverage, you can't get cocky just because you were right before. Here, I separate "holding" from "protecting": if the structure isn't broken, don't be reckless, but if the price falls below 2100 with volume, it indicates this capital push is retreating; if 2200 doesn't hold, pay even closer attention.
There are Nasdaq/crypto asset-related news, but for this $ETH move, I focus on the order book and volume, not the headlines. The harshest thing about mainstream coins is: they wear you down normally, but one real breakout changes the mindset.
I'll keep watching; I don't treat unrealized profits as the outcome, just as a market buffer. $BTC Bitcoin is once again approaching its historical highs, completely igniting market sentiment. The mainstream narrative attributes this round of rally to two main drivers: interest rate cut expectations and ETF capital inflows. However, these two factors are fundamentally different in nature—the former is a macro liquidity expectation, while the latter is a micro demand shock. Confusing them leads to poor judgment of this market movement. This article focuses on three sharp questions: Which drivers are sustainable? If interest rate cuts are delayed, how significant is the risk of a pullback? Is Bitcoin really a barometer of liquidity? 1. Sustainable and Unsustainable Drivers: ETFs Are Real Money, Rate Cuts Are Options The drivers of this rally can be broken down into three layers: institutional allocation via ETFs, the halving supply narrative, and interest rate cut expectations. Their certainty decreases in that order. Institutional allocation brought by ETFs is relatively sustainable. Spot ETFs have changed Bitcoin's market structure. A large amount of Bitcoin is locked by custodial institutions, effectively reducing the circulating supply, while the continuous net inflows into ETFs create a stable buying force. More importantly, ETFs allow funds such as pensions, family offices, and hedge funds, which previously could not directly hold Bitcoin, to enter the market. This demand is not one-off but gradually released as asset allocation proportions increase. As long as ETFs do not experience continuous large net outflows, this engine will not easily stall. The halving supply contraction is a certain event but with diminishing marginal effects. The halving itself is certain, but the market prices it in advance. When the halving actually occurs, its marginal price-driving effect is often weakened. Therefore, the halving acts more like a timing anchor for the market, and#Fed July FOMC Minutes 9 to 3, Officials Still Divided on Rate Hikes
The Fed's July FOMC meeting ultimately maintained rates at 3.50%-3.75% with a 9 to 3 vote, but three members clearly supported an immediate 25bp hike. I find this result somewhat subtle.
On one hand, recent CPI, PPI, and employment data have been cooling down, so the market currently leans more toward holding steady in September. In other words, an immediate rate hike in September is not the main trade right now.
On the other hand, the truly hawkish aspect of these minutes is that many officials still believe inflationary pressures have not been fully resolved. Some officials even worry that if tightening is not done now, more aggressive hikes may be needed in the future to control inflation.
So the biggest misconception now might be: "The Fed not hiking" ≠ "The Fed preparing to ease."
Especially with oil prices still high and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz not fully gone. If energy prices push inflation up again, market expectations for the next policy move could easily turn hawkish again.
This is critical for $BTC and US growth stocks $BB. BTC has just broken above $69,000 again. If capital flows continue to improve and inflation keeps cooling, this rebound still has conditions to continue upward; but if inflation rises again and long-term US Treasury yields climb, high-valuation tech stocks and Crypto will face renewed pressure.
So rather than guessing whether there will be a hike in September, I am now more focused on the next round of PCE, employment, and oil prices $CORE 【CORE Left Behind at 0.021 – Rally Bypasses It】
BTC, ETH, SOL surge — CORE still stuck at 0.021.
Weakness:
Early August whale dump (3M CORE) triggered 50%+ flash crash. Liquidity damaged, recovery slow.
Hope:
SatPay global beta — plans to use revenue for CORE buybacks, moving away from token inflation.
Market awaits SatPay data & buyback proof. Infrastructure ready, but execution pending.
While others rally, CORE grinds low. Delivery is key. $BTC $ETH Fundamental Research Report $CULT / Cult DAO (Meme/Payment) $3.20
Conclusion first: Cult DAO ($CULT) overall score 52/100, rating Narrative over execution. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Cult DAO (token $CULT), Meme/Payment sector. Focused on decentralized Meme fund. Competitors include PEOPLE, MEME. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack control over their data. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend $50-500/month, settlement required in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Cult DAO $3.00B, PEOPLE undisclosed, MEME undisclosed. FDV: Cult DAO $4.20B, PEOPLE undisclosed, MEME undisclosed. Annual revenue: Cult DAO $2.00M, PEOPLE undisclosed, MEME undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Cult DAO undisclosed, PEOPLE undisclosed, MEME undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 52/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlocks causing sell-offs, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus metrics: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
Fundamentals covered here, the rest is up to the market.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit #WhiteHouseSummit: Trump Says He Discussed Buying BTC On August 20, 2026, at the White House Crypto Industry Forum, Trump sent a major signal: the U.S. government is studying large-scale increases in holdings of BTC and other crypto assets to expand the national digital reserve. After the news broke, BTC surged briefly, breaking through $70,000, reaching a new high since June 2.
This policy is not a temporary proposal. As early as March 2025, Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, consolidating 198,000 BTC seized through law enforcement channels and permanently locking them. This expansion plan is a further upgrade of the policy. The U.S. national crypto reserve layout has three core logics: first, positioning BTC as digital gold to hedge against asset risks caused by dollar oversupply and U.S. debt expansion; second, seizing global crypto industry rule-making power to consolidate the dollar's dominant position in the digital asset field; third, optimizing the national balance sheet through budget-neutral means such as gold certificate revaluation.
On the liquidity front, there are double benefits: the U.S. Treasury is increasing long-term bond repurchases, driving down U.S. Treasury yields, and market bullish sentiment is concentrated. ETH rose more than 9% in a single day, with mainstream coins like BNB also rising broadly, while shorts totaling $1.4 billion faced concentrated liquidations.
In the short term, policy benefits combined with short squeezes provide strong rebound momentum for BTC and ETH; in the medium to long term, the U.S. has officially set the direction to include Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset, which will continue to provide valuation support for the crypto market. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Early this morning, the Federal Reserve put a hawk on the table. The July meeting minutes were officially released: inflation risks remain tilted upward, prices are still above the 2% target, and some officials clearly lean toward raising interest rates. As soon as the news came out, according to textbook logic, interest-free assets like Bitcoin should have dropped first out of respect—but it completely ignored that, continuing to hover near seventy thousand, rising more than eight points in twenty-four hours. This is quite interesting. This year’s Federal Reserve, with the newly appointed chair Wash, immediately deleted the rate cut guidance and put "price stability" front and center. In the June dot plot, half of the members expect another rate hike within the year. On the other hand, U.S. Treasury debt just broke through forty trillion dollars, Trump is simultaneously waging a tariff war with the world and publicly discussing hoarding a batch of Bitcoin as reserves. One side wants to tighten liquidity, the other is easing it—these two forces are pulling against each other, and Bitcoin, caught in the middle, is rising the most enthusiastically. Looking at the market, this is indeed the case. $BTC stands near 69,700, just one step from seventy thousand, with short-term strength indicators soaring to 90, overheated; on the gold side, $XAUT also rose three points in twenty-four hours, safe-haven money is not idle; spot ETFs have seen net inflows for the third consecutive day, institutional channels are still loading bullets. So what money is driving this rally? It’s not rate cut money. Expectations for rate cuts were already choked off by this Federal Reserve; hoping for liquidity easing to push Bitcoin is the wrong direction. This rally is being pulled by three other lines: first, policy endorsement—Trump’s reserve statement combined with the SEC’s regulatory draft equals givingThe real change is the regulatory status jumping from a "vague offshore platform" to a "White House-named promoted entity": On 8/19, Trump clearly stated at the White House Crypto Summit that CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is working to introduce Hyperliquid into the U.S. market in a "fully compliant and legal manner" (Wall Street Insights); on the same day, Hyperliquid Policy Center and trade[XYZ] submitted a pre-IPO perpetual market (IPOPs) proposal comment letter to the SEC (HOKANEWS), and Hyperliquid Perpetuals launched on Coinbase Base App (CMC AI). Three catalysts appeared on the same day, HYPE up 22.03% on 8/19, reaching an intraday high of $72.16 (KuCoin), less than 6% away from the 52-week high of $76.70. $CAP is still the same familiar formula, the same familiar taste, and the same familiar short position at the foot of the mountain, except this time there was a bit more luck involved than the previous times.
On July 30, $CAP was consolidating at a high level, with both trading volume and total position still very small. I judged that its next move would be a slow decline, so I opened a short position at the price of 0.032. Although it was a bit late, the position was profitable for the next two days. I believed it would only slowly decline, so I just needed to hold the position and wait for it to realize profits.
Unfortunately, man proposes but God disposes. On August 6, $CAP suddenly surged with high volume and even formed a very tall wick. I thought this was its last struggle, so I didn’t close the position. Later, it actually surged for 20 consecutive days and is still consolidating at a high level today, refusing to go down. I held the position through my misjudgment, losing a large amount of funding fees. It will probably take another month to wait for it to return to the foot of the mountain.
The biggest mistakes in this trade were: first, not setting a stop loss and stubbornly holding as the K-line rose, resulting in increasing losses; second, not taking profits and fantasizing about bigger gains—actually, I should have closed the position and taken profits on August 1, and shouldn’t have been too greedy and forgotten that the market can change drastically at any time; third, the misjudgment of the market trend—correct judgments earlier don’t guarantee continuous accuracy later, the market isn’t yours, so why should it follow your script; fourth, incomplete information gathering—I didn’t observe changes in funding fees and the long-short ratio of contract positions, blindly siding with the majority doesn’t guarantee a win.
I hope CAP will drop soon so I can lose less. I will never dare to hold a position through losses again.
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 Why do people always dare to add to losing positions but hesitate to add to winning ones?
After trading for a long time, I've realized that human nature naturally prefers to "buy cheap" rather than "buy right."
When a coin drops 30% after purchase, we feel the cost-performance ratio is better: adding a bit more lowers the average cost.
But when a coin rises 30%, with trend, volume, and capital confirming, we instead think it's expensive and fear buying at the peak.
I used to be like this too.
I kept adding to losing positions as they dropped because each addition brought the cost basis closer to the current price, visually seeming like correcting a mistake; but I sold winning positions early because taking profits immediately proved my judgment was right.
The usual result is: the weak buy more and more, the strong sell more and more, and the final account holds only the most disappointing positions.
Adding to positions itself isn't wrong, but the premise is that the price has dropped and the logic remains intact.
If fundamentals deteriorate, tokens keep unlocking, and capital keeps flowing out, so-called lowering the cost basis only amplifies the same mistake.
Similarly, adding to winning positions isn't blindly chasing highs but continuing to participate with new stop-losses and position management after trend confirmation.
Trading isn't about collecting cheap chips but about allocating more capital to directions that prove themselves.
Remember: lowering cost doesn't mean lowering risk; the real danger isn't buying expensive but leaving the largest position to the most wrong judgment just to break even. As of press time, BTC is trading near $69,000, having briefly touched $70,000 during the session; ETH has risen to around $2,250, with a rebound noticeably stronger than BTC. This round of gains is not driven by a single piece of news but rather by three factors simultaneously stepping on the gas. First, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, causing long-term yields to fall immediately. The previously suppressive high interest rate pressure on risk assets has temporarily eased, restoring market sentiment. However, it is important to distinguish: this is liquidity support from the bond market and does not mean the Federal Reserve has officially shifted to easing. Fiscal deficits, inflation, and subsequent Treasury supply issues still exist; macro pressures have only temporarily cooled, not disappeared entirely. Second, the market had been in prolonged consolidation with short positions accumulating continuously. After BTC broke out of the range, a large number of shorts were forced to cover, and the forced buying further pushed prices up, ultimately forming a positive feedback loop of "breakout—liquidation—further rise." Third, ETH’s single-day performance was clearly stronger than BTC’s, indicating that funds are beginning to shift from defensive allocations to high-volatility assets. But the more the rally depends on leveraged liquidations, the more volatile the market tends to be after the rally ends. Therefore, what is most worth watching now is not how long the bullish candle lasts, but whether spot funds can continue to take over after the short squeeze ends. If BTC can hold above the breakout zone and ETH can maintain this round’s gains, the rebound has a chance to evolve into a trend; if volume quickly fades and prices fall back into the previous consolidation range, this big bullish candle is more likely just a severe position cleanup. My🔥A hard lesson! Don't guess the top of hot themes based on feelings!
$SNDK This short position was another expensive live trading lesson.
Last night, opened a 30x full position short at 1585, subjectively judging that the storage sector's positive news was about to be realized, and after a surge, it would most likely fall back, so I directly entered to bet on a pullback.
Ignored the most crucial point: as long as the main theme still has capital support, it won't simply reverse just because it "rose too much."
Held the position until this morning at 1620.96, forced to close, resulting in a 70.19% loss on this trade. Looking back at the chart, the price remained oscillating above the Bollinger Bands middle band, RSI did not show obvious overbought turning points, and bullish support was always present—this was a typical counter-trend top guess.
Also, the previous BTC 50x short position lost quickly, exposing the same fatal problem: always presetting the rise or fall outcome first, then looking for market action to confirm one's idea, ignoring the real strength or weakness of the market.
Key takeaways:
✅ For popular theme coins, shorting must wait for volume topping and breakdown confirmation signals; do not preemptively set short positions;
✅ High leverage has very little margin for error; once the direction is opposite, losses accelerate far beyond expectations;
✅ Trading only respects capital and market signals; don't argue with the market.
The market won't accommodate anyone's predictions. The tuition paid this time is a constant reminder to myself.
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 Bitcoin has once again surpassed $69,000, just one step away from its all-time high. Market sentiment is heating up quickly, but the more critical the moment, the more we need to answer three questions: How far can this rally go? What conditions are needed for it to continue rising? Is Bitcoin really a barometer of liquidity? This article does not provide trading calls or create anxiety; it offers an in-depth analysis based on macro liquidity, capital structure, and market logic. 1. The nature of this rally: liquidity recovery rather than broad easing Bitcoin has rebounded from the bottom to around $69,000, driven not by a single positive factor but by the combination of three: the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle nearing its end, incremental funds brought by Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the halving expectation strengthening the supply contraction narrative. However, it is important to note that the essence of these three factors is "improved expectations," not "widespread liquidity flooding." The Fed has not actually cut rates yet, balance sheet reduction is ongoing, and real interest rates on the dollar remain at historically high levels. In other words, this Bitcoin rally looks more like a correction of previously overly pessimistic pricing and a preemptive move ahead of a future liquidity turning point. This "preemptive rally" is characterized by high elasticity but its sustainability heavily depends on whether expectations are fulfilled. Once macro data fails to support rate cut expectations or ETF inflows slow down, prices will face sharp corrections. 2. Three necessary conditions for continued rally 1. A substantial turning point in macro liquidity Bitcoin is highly sensitive to global liquidity. To judge a liquidity turning point, one cannot only look at whether the Fed cuts rates but must also pay attention to three more specific indicators: · Real2026.8.19 Crypto Surge, Three Main Events:
1. Policy Tailwind — The White House Clearly Embraces Crypto
At the White House crypto summit, Trump met with leading institutions like Coinbase, Kraken, and heads of the SEC/CFTC, publicly urging Congress to quickly pass the Clarity Act. He reiterated that the U.S. will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, maintain global leadership in the crypto sector, and specifically mentioned promoting Hyperliquid's compliant entry into the U.S. market, signaling a clear easing of regulatory uncertainty.
2. Macro Liquidity Improvement — U.S. Treasury Repo + Weaker Dollar
The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the repo scale supporting liquidity for 10–30 year Treasuries. Long-term yields fell and the dollar weakened, easing valuation pressure on risk assets. Crypto, as a high-beta asset, directly benefited.
3. Derivatives Short Squeeze — Historic Short Liquidations
Previously, bearish sentiment was strong with highly concentrated short positions. After prices broke upward, massive forced liquidations were triggered — according to some data, about $1.3–2.9 billion in liquidations occurred across the network within 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 85%. Among them, BTC shorts saw over $1 billion liquidated in a single hour, marking one of the largest short liquidations on record since 2021. The short covering further amplified the rally. After the squeeze, ETH open interest declined, BTC long leverage began to appear, and the market structure became healthier than before. $ETH experienced a rapid surge of about 17% yesterday under the combined effects of dual policy benefits and short squeeze, invalidating the previous small-scale structure around 1900. Currently, one point to note: the Ministry of Finance announced actual measures yesterday to at least double the liquidity support repurchase scale for 10–30 year US Treasury bonds, rather than simply "increasing the issuance scale of long-term US Treasuries"; the SEC indeed proposed new regulatory rules for crypto assets and emphasized a regulatory framework better suited to crypto market innovation.
Both measures overall strengthened market risk appetite. Structurally, ETH has directly entered the heavy resistance zone of 2260–2410, with 2336 becoming the current first top and liquidity high point. After such a rapid 400-point level surge, a short-term pullback after hitting highs is a normal profit-taking digestion, and it is not suitable to chase higher at this stage.
Going forward, focus on 2230–2250 and 2180–2200: if 2230–2250 holds, the overall trend remains a strong high-level consolidation; if it continues to test around 2200 and receives effective support, it is more inclined to be a healthy pullback after the rise, with subsequent opportunities to retest 2280–2300 → 2336 → 2410.
Conversely, if 2200 breaks and the rebound fails to recover, the short-term correction level will expand, with the next support at 2100–2130; 2050 serves as an important mid-term defense for this strong trend.
Summary: The major trend is strongly bullish, but the short term has entered a profit-taking phase after reaching a heavy resistance zone. Watch 2336 for a breakout and 2200 for support; as long as 2200 holds, the pullback is considered strong, and only a break below will gradually downgrade the short-term bullish structure. The focus now is not to chase the rally but to wait for the first effective pullback structure after this surge. If a rate hike decision passes 9 to 3, what do you see? Is it an absolute majority with 9 votes, or a rare split of 3 votes? In the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC, this seemingly one-sided voting result is sending an extremely dangerous signal to the market: the rate hike cycle has entered deep waters, and the Fed's internal "consensus machine" has begun to fail. 9 to 3 is not a hawkish victory, but rather the beginning of a policy path spiraling out of control. Today, let's use logical reasoning to tear open this memorandum and see what cracks behind 9-to-3 are enough to change global asset pricing. 1. The True Calculations of the 9-Vote Majority: Not Wanting to Raise Rates, But Not Afraid to Stop On the surface, the 9 votes supporting continued rate hikes indicates that the committee believes inflation has not yet been fully tamed. But if you only see this layer, you're too naive. The core logic of the majority camp has three main points, each filled with "helplessness": First, risk management is asymmetrical. When inflation remains above the 2% target, the cost of stopping too early is much greater than excessive tightening. If inflation expectations spiral out of control, the Fed will have to pay several times the price to repeas; And if the economy is in recession due to rate hikes, the tool for cutting interest rates can be brought out at any time. When two evils weigh each other, most officials would rather "do a little more." Second, to prevent premature easing of financial conditions. Once the FOMC signals a pause, the market will immediately price in rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields fall, stocks rebound, the dollar weakens, and financial conditions become more relaxed. This effectively offsets all the effects of previous rate hikes. So even if some people want to stop, they will choose to keep raising rates when voting, taking actionSummarizing yesterday's surge mainly concentrated in 3 areas:
1. The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of the long-term Treasury repurchase program, increasing the single repurchase limit for 10- to 30-year Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion between September 9 and November 4. After the announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly dropped nearly 10 basis points, and U.S. stocks rose simultaneously. For BTC, this means long-term interest rate pressure was actively suppressed and liquidity expectations improved, forming the macro backdrop for this round of risk asset strength.
2. Trump met at the White House with the SEC Chair, CFTC Chair, and executives from crypto companies including Coinbase and Ripple; subsequently, the U.S. SEC proposed requirements for exempting certain digital asset issuances from securities registration statements. This marks a restart of the compliance narrative and was a favorable policy tailwind that day.
3. The U.S. military has established a transit route in the Strait of Hormuz, with 15 to 20 oil tankers currently passing through the southern route along the coast of Oman daily, transporting about 10 million barrels of oil through the strait, roughly half of pre-war levels. This indicates easing energy supply disruptions and falling inflation expectations, indirectly benefiting risk assets as well. $BTC $ETH $BTC's violent surge of 7%~18% is mainly due to the U.S. Treasury extending long-term debt repurchases, pushing the 30-year yield down from 5.34% to 5.19%, triggering short covering + $1.4 billion squeeze, not new real money entering the market.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury remains pinned at 4.64%, with a real interest rate of 2.33%, so the risk-free rate hasn't eased; the U.S. debt deficit is $40 trillion, the Fed minutes are hawkish, and Treasury repurchases ≠ QE.
A squeeze without spot support is essentially issuing a reverse exit ticket to those who cut losses at 64,000 — the push to 70,000 is a bull trap, not a turning point.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ BTC's surge yesterday suddenly felt somewhat familiar.
Those who played in the Bitcoin ecosystem during the last cycle should understand.
When BTC is stagnant, no one talks about Ordinals, BRC20, or wallet ecosystems.
But once BTC continuously shows profit potential, everyone comes back to check their wallets, look for assets, and see what's playable on-chain.
So now I'm actually starting to revisit UniSat, check out BRC20, and see what FB has been up to recently.
It might not rise immediately.
But at least—
The wind is starting to blow this way again.
$BTC $ORDI #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ LAB holdings quietly climb, funding rate turns positive—can this momentum continue?
After LAB surged to 0.085 in the early morning, it now stabilizes around 0.0807, up about 2.4%. The market looks calm, but several data points deserve a closer look.
Let's review the current market:
· Price: 0.0807, 24h high 0.0853, low 0.0752, amplitude about 13%
· EMA arrangement: EMA5 (0.0806) ≈ EMA10 (0.0807) ≈ EMA20 (0.0803)—three EMAs almost merged
· BOLL (20,2): middle band 0.0801, upper band 0.0839, lower band 0.0762—price is above the middle band but still 3.8% below the upper band
· Holdings: about 5.4 million LAB (nominal value about 436,000 USDT), steadily rising over the past 6 hours
· Funding rate: currently about 0.059%, turned positive from negative over the past week
· Long-short ratio (1 hour): 9.37—long accounts far outnumber shorts
· Active buy/sell volume: active buys about 9.99 million LAB, active sells about 7.49 million LAB—net buy exceeds sell by about 2.5 million LAB
Breaking down a few points.
First, holdings have rebounded but the increase is modest.
From around 4.7 million holdings near the early morning low to now 5.4 million, an increase of about 700,000 LAB (+15%). The amount is small but the direction is positive—at least it shows no large-scale liquidation fleeing after that early morning surge. The funding rate also turned positive, currently 0.059%, indicating longs are willing to pay to hold positions, a mildly positive signal.
But this volume is still far from enough. By comparison, 90 days ago when LAB was priced above $4, holdings were tens of times this number. This small increase only indicates a small amount of capital testing the waters, far from a reversal level.
Second, the long-short ratio is 9.37, with longs dominating absolutely.
This data has two sides. More longs is good—it shows market sentiment is optimistic; but too high a long-short ratio is risky—if the market turns down, how many of these 9.37 longs will instantly flip to shorts and cause a stampede? Also, the ratio is 9.37 on 1-hour, 7.37 on 4-hour, and 3.37 on daily—longer timeframes show lower long-short ratios. This means short-term speculative positions are long-biased, but mid-to-long-term funds have not entered heavily.
Third, active buys exceed active sells by about 2.5 million LAB, but the price barely moved.
This is the detail I pay most attention to. From early morning to noon, active buys were 9.99 million, active sells 7.49 million, net buy about 2.5 million. Such a large net buy, yet price only rose from 0.075 to 0.0807, less than 8%—indicating ample sell-side liquidity, with buy-side passively absorbing selling pressure.
This is not bad. If the buy-side is smart money quietly accumulating, this volume-price relationship is healthy; but if the buy-side is retail FOMO, this level could become a new trap zone.
Fourth, there is a detail in the order book worth noting.
At 13:31, within one second, multiple buy orders of thousands or even tens of thousands LAB appeared consecutively (1,420; 1,571; 1,573; 1,122; 770; 750), with prices from 0.08068 down to 0.08066. At the same time, sell orders were only small ones like 500 or 701.
This order pattern looks like someone placed large buy orders at 0.0806-0.0807 to support the price. Whether this is price support or accumulation depends on whether these orders remain in the next few days—if they stay, someone wants to defend this level; if gone by tomorrow, it might be market makers washing volume.
My thinking:
My strategy from last night's tweet remains unchanged—buy near 0.075, reduce half position above 0.083, keep some for a shot at 0.090, stop loss raised to 0.077.
At this noon price (0.0807), I have no new opening plans. Holdings are increasing, funding rate turned positive, active buys are more—these are short-term positive signals but not enough to change my "rebound is not reversal" view.
The real signal to add positions is: volume breakout above 0.085 with a pullback that holds above 0.082. Until then, holding and watching is more comfortable than chasing highs.
LAB's fundamentals haven't changed—down 98% in 90 days, trapped positions still weigh heavily. One or two technical rebounds can't change this fact. But short-term trading opportunities are indeed increasing; holders with base positions should hold, those without should wait for pullbacks.
That's all for this noon's update; see you in the comments if there are changes.
📌 Note: The price points in this article are personal review records and do not constitute trading advice. The market is complex; decisions are yours. $LAB This $ETH perpetual contract long position was opened at an average price of 1905.63, with a mark price of 2254.59, using 100x leverage, currently yielding +1831.20%, and is still held.
To be honest, when I entered around 1905, the group was full of bearish voices, all shouting that ETH would drop back to 1500. But I watched the order book closely for a long time; every time it dipped below 1900, the sell orders appeared but were eaten up within seconds—this kind of "someone rushing to buy on the dip" behavior is undeniable. Plus, at that time, ETH's Funding Rate had already turned negative, market sentiment was extremely pessimistic, and short leverage was piled high—a typical sign of an impending reversal.
I opened a 100x long at 1905, but with a very light position and a stop loss set at 1890, so even if I was wrong, I would only lose 1% of the principal. Trading is not about gambling on ups or downs; it's about calculating probabilities and risk-reward ratios. 1900 was a previous dense trading zone with strong support, making going long at this level very favorable in terms of odds.
Now that the price has risen to 2254, I have moved the stop loss up to 2000, so this position is already invincible. I continue to hold the base position and watch; since the trend has emerged, profits must be allowed to run. But I definitely will not chase new positions at this level—around 2250 is close to the previous trapped zone, profit-taking pressure will increase, and there will be short-term turnover demand. The era of easy vertical gains on $SNDK is officially dead. Saddled with continuous token emissions and paper-thin orderbook depth, persistent sell-side distribution consumes new bids before any floor can form.
In sharp contrast to $BICO,$BEAT, $ALLO,$KAITO, and $APR—which all tapped into fresh market bids to execute clean turnaround setups—$SNDK fails to construct support or draw in organic volume. Front-running a reversal here stays firmly in speculative territory.
$SNDK #CryptoRevenueVsBTCYesterday, the daily moving averages were clustered, indicating that a direction was about to be chosen—it's just a matter of the market picking a side between bulls and bears. Unfortunately, I was on the wrong side, and when you lose, you have to accept it; it's just a profit drawdown. As long as the principal remains, there is still a chance! To reiterate, U.S. Treasury reverse repos and Trump's statements are not really bullish; it's the market collectively closing out shorts. From this opportunity, a momentum-driven bull market is possible, so bears need to be cautious!
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 $BTC $ETH $SNDK @天才交易员绿毛 Crypto Market Bull Rally! Is the Surge a Short Squeeze or a Trend Reversal?
On Wednesday, Bitcoin and Ethereum suddenly surged, with BTC reaching a high of $70,059 and ETH rising over 12% intraday, both marking the largest single-day gains since March.
Market sentiment instantly shifted from extreme pessimism to euphoria, but is this the start of a new trend or a sharp short squeeze triggered by policy?
Core Driver: Epic Short Squeeze. Coinglass data shows that over $1 billion in Bitcoin short positions were forcibly liquidated within about an hour, one of the largest liquidation waves in history. After months of concentrated bearish sentiment, once the price broke key levels, the passive buying from short covering created a powerful self-reinforcing upward spiral.
Catalysts: Macro and Regulatory Tailwinds
Macro: The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly expanded long-term Treasury repurchase operations, causing both U.S. bond yields and the dollar index to plunge, providing a liquidity environment that lifts risk assets.
Regulatory: Trump met with crypto industry executives, and the SEC proposed a new plan exempting some digital asset issuances from registration, strengthening expectations for regulatory friendliness.
Technical Recovery: BTC reclaimed the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, improving short-term technical structure.
This surge is driven by "short panic" rather than "bullish conviction." The options market had previously accumulated many call positions near $70,000, and prices reaching this area may face profit-taking and selling pressure.
Sustained inflows from institutional funds have not yet been confirmed. If subsequent buying cannot shift from "short covering" to "active long positions," the rally may struggle to continue. Historical experience shows that liquidation-driven surges often come with sharp secondary pullbacks.
Trading Recommendations
BTC
Direction: If the price can hold above $68,500, short-term long positions can be considered.
Entry Point: Pullback to the $68,500–$69,000 range.
Take Profit Target: $71,500 (previous high resistance zone).
Stop Loss: Exit if it falls below $67,800.
ETH
Direction: Follows BTC but with greater volatility.
Entry Point: Pullback to $3,750–$3,800.
Take Profit Target: $4,000 round number.
Stop Loss: Exit if it falls below $3,650.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #Bitcoin returns to $69,000 after three months #Trump urges Congress to pass the Clarity Act $ETH $BTC $SOL First of all, this round of surge is not accidental; it is a strong triple resonance of macro liquidity, regulatory benefits, and short squeeze.
Let's start with the most core macro benefit! Last night, the U.S. Treasury made a big move by directly expanding the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, doubling the single operation limit from $2 billion to $4 billion. Once the news broke, long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar index plunged, marking the largest drop in three weeks, directly driving a broad rebound in gold and crypto markets. Market liquidity instantly loosened, which is the core trigger of this rally.
But there is a risk point everyone must pay attention to: the latest Federal Reserve July meeting minutes showed no hint of rate cuts throughout, completely diverging from the market's previous rate cut expectations. Currently, inflationary pressure persists, compounded by the stalemate in U.S.-Iran relations, restricted oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, and continuously rising oil prices. Inflation pressure is hard to ease, making the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September very high, with even some debate about rate hikes. The macro environment is not entirely positive. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Bitcoin broke through $69,900, and $ETH once touched $2,339.
Seeing this, many people's first reaction is: Has the bull market returned?
But don't rush to conclusions.
This wave of gains ranging from 7% to 18% seems more like a short-term short squeeze driven by liquidity changes rather than the start of a full bull market. Recently, the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchase operations, leading to a decline in long-term yields. Market shorts concentrated on covering positions, forcing nearly $1.4 billion in leveraged positions to exit, further amplifying the upward momentum.
However, what really needs attention is: Is there new spot capital continuously entering the market?
Currently, pressure in the U.S. Treasury market still exists; the 10-year yield remains at a relatively high level, and the real interest rate environment has not shown a clear shift. The Treasury's bond repurchases are more about liquidity management and do not indicate that the Federal Reserve has restarted QE.
If there is no continuous follow-up from institutions and spot capital, this rise may just be an emotional recovery after a short squeeze, not a trend reversal.
Those who panicked and sold near $64,000 can now only watch the price rebound.
For the market to truly enter a new upward cycle, it requires sustained capital inflows and trend confirmation, not just a fierce short squeeze rally.
$BTC $SOL
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Public live account: 0x000b8acb515609c0a4a407915497cf3827395777 Initial capital: 1000 U Latest position plan $BTC short position -1.00x, target about 929 USD $XMR long position +0.75x, target about 697 USD $MSFT long position +0.65x, target about 604 USD Total target position 2.40x, net long +0.40x Position adjustment has been completed. The latest actual positions are approximately: $BTC short 931 USD, $XMR long 687 USD, $MSFT long 603 USD; currently no pending orders. Adjustment record This round reduced the $BTC target from -1.20x to -1.00x, increased $MSFT from +0.45x to +0.65x, and kept $XMR at +0.75x. Approximately 215 USD of BTC short positions were closed, and about 180 USD of MSFT long positions were added. Adjustment rationale The BTC short direction has not reversed, but the source quality has diverged. The active source still holds about 1.36m USD of $BTC short positions, with BTC's net realized PnL over the past 30 days still about +18.4k USD; however, its overall 30-day portfolio return is close to breakeven or turning negative. Another swing source still holds$SNDK SanDisk #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
1. Overall Trend Review
1. Long-term Major Trend
Since its spin-off and independent listing from Western Digital in February 2025, driven by the explosive demand for AI data center storage, it has experienced an epic bull market, with a maximum increase of over 858% in the first half of 2026, reaching an intrayear high of $2354.39 (52-week high); after peaking in July, it entered a high-level wide-range oscillation and decline channel.
In the past three months, it has mostly traded sideways with a slight decline of 1.3%, remaining in a high-level box range, with bullish momentum exhausted and short-term turning into a weak consolidation pattern.
2. Short-term Weekly Trend (8.12–8.19)
• 8.10–8.12: Stabilized around the low $1200 range;
• 8.13: Violent single-day rebound, surged 14% from 1331 to 1528;
• 8.17: Reached a wave high of 1828 then started volume-driven pullback;
• 8.18 closed lower, and 8.19 dropped sharply again by 3.5%, opening significantly higher but falling throughout the day from 1682 down to 1542 low, bullish momentum quickly faded, short-term bears dominate.
2. Key Support Levels (near to far, USD)
Short-term intraday/1–3 day support
1. Primary strong support: 1542 (intraday low on August 19, short-term bull-bear dividing line)
Holding this level would lead to a 1542–1630 box range oscillation; a decisive break below opens room for further short-term decline.
2. Secondary support: 1524 (hourly chart pivot price) + 1500 psychological round number
Double technical support zone; breaking below will further weaken sentiment.
3. Mid-term moving average support: 1478 (daily EMA50)
Key moving average for this rebound; losing this means the rebound trend is completely over, returning to mid-term weakness.
Wave strong support (weekly level)
1. 1379 (previous box center, mid-August stabilization key platform), core bottom for this rebound start;
2. 1308–1331 (low points from August 12 and 13, key mid-term bull-bear box bottom);
3. Ultimate strong support: 1200 (early August bottom dense trading zone, most important mid-term bottom range).
3. Key Resistance Levels (near to far, USD)
Short-term resistance
1. First resistance: 1625–1628 (August 18 closing price, short-term trapped position dense zone), August 19 close at 1568, to repair weakness must first reclaim this range;
2. Second resistance: 1650–1700 (upper Bollinger Band + recent two days’ opening pressure zone, August 18 and 19 opening resistance);
3. Strong resistance: 1725–1787 (August 18 high, August 17 close, start of this decline).
Mid-to-long-term wave resistance
1. 1828 (August 17 stage high, top of this rebound);
2. 2170 (downtrend channel upper boundary, maximum mid-term rebound pressure);
3. Historical strong resistance: 2354 (yearly all-time high, major bull ultimate pressure).
4. Detailed Capital Inflow/Outflow Analysis
1. Intraday & short-term funds (last 5 trading days)
• 8.13: Massive net inflow, turnover $33.1 billion, institutional funds aggressively bottom-fished, driving the single-day surge;
• 8.14–8.17: Funds slowly trickled out in batches, high-level chips started loosening;
• 8.18 and 8.19: Two consecutive days of large main fund net outflows:
8.18 turnover $30.68 billion, 8.19 turnover $25.99 billion, maintaining very high turnover rate (11%–13%), characteristic of high-level volume selling; retail investors absorbing, institutions reducing positions phase-wise.
2. Mid-term funds (last 90 days)
1. Executives & insiders: continuous net outflow
In the past 90 days, executives net sold about $65 million, no large insider buying, industrial capital continuously cashing out at highs, mid-term bullish confidence weak.
2. Institutional holdings: clear divergence
Bullish institutions (long-term AI storage funds) maintain base positions; short-term hedge funds and swing institutions significantly reduce holdings, margin financing gradually declines.
3. Sector-linked funds
Simultaneous fund outflows from peers like Micron, Western Digital; semiconductor tech sector overall funds temporarily retreat; repeated rate hike expectations cause growth stock funds to flow back to bonds, further suppressing SNDK’s capital.
3. Chip and liquidity characteristics
Recent turnover rate consistently 8%–15%, far above initial listing average, rapid chip exchange, high-level chips gradually transferring from institutions to retail;
If large capital inflows do not return, likely to continue box-range slow decline to digest previous huge gains bubble.
5. Brief Summary
1. Short-term: weak oscillation, 1542 is short-term trend indicator; holding leads to consolidation repair, breaking down targets 1478 and 1380 support;
2. Mid-term: high point pullback phase, main funds phase-wise outflow, relying only on AI storage fundamentals to support; without major positive news, hard to quickly return above 1800;
3. Core risks: NAND flash price cycle volatility, US tech sector liquidity tightening, valuation pressure from previous large gains.$BTC's sudden surge in volume directly broke through the 70000 mark. Even now, as I review the situation, I can't find any positive news to support this violent rally. The market started up so fast that traders barely had any time to react.
When the price hit 66600, the upward momentum already looked very strong. At that time, I chose to close my long position on Dogecoin $DOGE and immediately opened a short position on Bitcoin, predicting that this rally was overextended and the market would struggle to push higher.
Unexpectedly, just as I entered the short, the market launched into a rapid surge. Watching the price sprint upwards, I broke out in a cold sweat. If the 15-minute candle had produced another 2000-point bullish bar, my position would likely have been liquidated. Fortunately, the 70000 level faced heavy resistance, and the upward momentum temporarily paused.
In the end, I missed out on a few hundred dollars of profit from Dogecoin's subsequent rally and instead endured a huge unrealized loss on Bitcoin, which was very frustrating.
What’s even more puzzling is that the US stock market did not rise in sync; only the crypto sector experienced an independent explosive rally, making the driving logic behind it completely unclear. $ETH Ethereum also surged, briefly surpassing 2100. Last night’s bull squeeze wiped out traders who were short with over 20x leverage before they could even add margin.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡
#宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ 💎 $SNDK is delivering the heat!
Price 0.00508, +10.9% gain. Insight: steady buying pressure is building. Support 0.00475–0.00485. Resistance 0.00540–0.00550. Target 🎯 0.00600. Stoploss 0.00450. Next move: bullish bias remains as long as support holds—another potential runner!
#FOMC9To3Split The courtroom debate in the California federal court has begun, with $META's market value of approximately 1.385 trillion standing at a crossroads over whether the product algorithm needs to be forcibly dismantled.
Facing the plaintiffs' theoretical compensation claims, the market has not experienced panic selling, but the rectification orders on restrictions for minors' usage time and content pushing are driving up risk discounts.
A previous New Mexico case broke traditional immunity protections, leading mid- to short-term institutional funds to reduce equity positions and risk exposure during the weeks-long trial period.
Legal risks imposing substantive constraints on product functions are directly related to the expected loss in advertising exposure frequency, which in turn suppresses capital's pricing elasticity for future revenue growth.
If the trial confirms settlement solely through phased financial penalties without restricting the all-age recommendation mechanism, valuation pressure will gradually ease, but this trend fails when facing top-tier global regulatory penalties.
If the presiding judge adopts the classification of algorithm addiction and issues a nationwide mandatory product rectification order, the high-engagement monetization model will be reshaped, and this downward path ends when judicial reaffirmation of immunity protections occurs.
When judicial rulings ultimately remove all rigid restrictions on recommendation algorithms, the event risk discount logic surrounding the product moat revaluation will be completely disproven.
The most important variable to observe in the next 7 days is the presiding judge's initial inclination regarding the effectiveness of restricting recommendation algorithms at the California trial.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？08/20/2026 — The most notable news After several sessions stuck around $63,000–65,000, Bitcoin suddenly broke above $68,000 and at one point approached $69,000 on 08/19, rising more than 6%. ETH also climbed back over $2,000, at times exceeding $2,100. What is even more notable is that this surge did not come from any ETF news or the unexpected passing of the CLARITY Act. It occurred after the U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond buybacks, from about $2 billion to at least $4 billion per round, to improve market liquidity Last night's White House crypto summit was far more substantial than a simple "positive signal" 🚨. Trump convened the heads of SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, Ripple, Chainlink, Nasdaq, and ICE, the parent company of NYSE, forming an all-star lineup. The core message conveyed at the meeting was very clear: the U.S. is shifting from verbal support to substantive legislative progress. Trump explicitly stated that the U.S. has discussed continuing to increase holdings of Bitcoin and other digital assets and urged Congress to accelerate the passage of the CLARITY Act to define the legal status of crypto assets. Meanwhile, the CFTC is studying how to promote the compliant operation of Hyperliquid in the U.S. More importantly, the U.S. leadership has set the tone to ensure an "undisputed global leadership position" in Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, prediction markets, and AI 🏛️. Following this, the SEC, CFTC, NYSE, Nasdaq, and leading crypto companies will form a working group to jointly explore how to formally integrate stablecoins, on-chain financing, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets into the U.S. financial system. This marks a fundamental shift in regulatory logic: from passive containment to active acceptance and institutional design. If the above framework is implemented, institutional capital access to the crypto market will be systemically expanded, especially in compliant stablecoins and regulated perpetual contract markets, which may see structural growth. $HYPE, as a project explicitly named by the CFTC, its U.S. compliance progress #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC $ETH $SOL The 9-to-3 deadlock on holding rates steady does not mean the Federal Reserve has turned dovish; what is truly worth watching is that rate hikes are back on the table. The July FOMC maintained rates at 3.5%–3.75% by a 9-to-3 vote, but Logan, Harker, and Kashkari advocated for a 25 basis point hike. The three dissenting votes indicate that as long as inflation shows signs of resurgence, policy could tighten again. Currently, the market is clearly being pulled in two directions: on one side, July CPI cooling and weakening employment provide reasons to remain cautious; on the other, sticky inflation, volatility in long-term U.S. Treasuries, and high valuations in AI assets make the Fed reluctant to ease. CME data shows about a 67% probability of holding rates steady in September, but “holding steady” does not mean risk assets can rest easy. For the crypto market, the focus going forward is not whether there will be a rate hike at a single meeting, but three main pricing themes: ① If inflation rises again, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may strengthen, putting liquidity pressure on BTC; ② If employment continues to weaken, the market may reprice expectations for easing; ③ If AI valuations and financing risks spread, it could trigger synchronized risk-off moves in tech stocks and crypto assets. Therefore, the recent rise in BTC, ETH, and SOL does not mean macro risks have disappeared. It now looks more like the market is racing between “inflation resurgence” and “economic weakening,” with volatility likely more certain than direction. What do you think is the most likely outcome in September? A: Following#US Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Buybacks, 30-Year US Bonds Pull Back from Highs
The boss has something to say
On August 19, BTC stood above 70,000 again after 78 days. It peaked at 70,059, with a 24-hour increase of over 8%. Ethereum was even stronger, surging close to 2,300, with gains approaching 20%.
This is not an ordinary rebound; it’s a short squeeze triggered jointly by policy, liquidity, and short sellers stepping on each other. In a single hour, Bitcoin short liquidations exceeded $1 billion, with total daily market short liquidations around $1.7 billion, surpassing the records of $757 million in May 2021 and $694 million in November 2025.
First Fuse: Treasury Doubled Buyback Limits
The Treasury announced that the buyback cap for 10- to 30-year long-term bonds was doubled from 2 billion to 4 billion, effective September 9. The 30-year US bond yield dropped from a high of 5.337% to around 5.18%. The founder of DeFi Report called this “QE lite.” With borrowing costs down, the appeal of interest-free assets like Bitcoin naturally rises.
Second Fuse: SEC Regulatory Framework Implemented
On August 18, the SEC officially proposed the "Crypto Asset Regulation" draft. There are two exemption paths: startups under four years with $5 million, and financing projects under 12 months with $75 million. It also includes a conditional safe harbor mechanism. The regulatory narrative shifted from "Is it a security?" to "How to develop compliantly," marking a complete change.
Third Fuse: White House Hosted a Crypto Summit
On August 19, Trump convened CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, and Gemini at the White House, with SEC and CFTC leaders also present. Trump personally said, "The headwinds for the crypto industry are over," urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. Even more striking, he revealed that the US government has discussed plans to accumulate "a large amount" of Bitcoin—not through seizures, but by actively buying on the open market.
Fourth: Shorts Stepping on Each Other
BTC hovered just above 60,000 for a while, with shorts accumulating. A whale placed a 1,800 BTC short on Hyperliquid with 40x leverage. Once the price moved, the system auto-liquidated positions, causing a cascade of liquidations and price rises. In one hour, $1 billion was wiped out. This wasn’t bulls pumping the market; it was shorts stepping on each other.
Fifth: ETF Funds Entered Early
On August 19, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $189.3 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $143.57 million. Over two consecutive days, a total of $487 million was absorbed. Institutions confirmed the direction with real money.
Standard Chartered analysts see 100,000 by year-end; BlackRock says Bitcoin can hedge currency depreciation. But BTC is still 44% below last October’s all-time high of 126,000. Whether it can hold above 70,000 will determine if this is a short squeeze rebound or a trend reversal.
Shorts being liquidated is justified; at this level of short squeeze, stop-loss is the only way out. Now wait for a pullback, buy near 66,000, stop-loss at 65,000. Consider buying ETH near 2,000.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL Why is Bitcoin rising?
The reason is not crypto.
Look, I'm writing in order:
1. The US Treasury doubled its bond buyback. From $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion.
2. The target is 10-30 year bonds. The government is buying back its longest-term debt.
3. The reason: the 30-year yield was at a 19-year high. When government debt yields this much, no one takes risks.
4. With the buybacks, yields fell, money returned to risk. The path to Bitcoin opened from here.
5. The market was set up inversely. Everyone expected a drop, everyone was short.
6. $1.4 billion worth of shorts blew up in 4 hours. These people didn’t buy Bitcoin because they liked it, they had to buy to stop losses.
7. The price broke the 200-day moving average, $69,031. It had been below it for months. Technical buy orders were also triggered.
8. The same day, the SEC announced a regulatory draft. A capital raising framework was established, paving the way for mature networks to exit the securities classification.
9. There is a crypto meeting at the White House. Coinbase, Ripple, a16z are at the table. The market is already pricing in the news.
10. Money flowed into ETFs. On August 17, $297.5 million inflow led by BlackRock and Fidelity.
Now the real issue.
Remember this: Bitcoin no longer moves on its own.
It rises when money is abundant, falls when it decreases. You can’t understand by looking at the chart because the reason is not in the chart.
To be honest, this is not a trend reversal.
Most of the rise came from forced buying. The guy whose short blew up buys once, doesn’t repeat the next day.
Strategy soared 13% today, Coinbase 11%. Both are still down more than 35% since the beginning of the year.
One day doesn’t recover a lost year.
What you will do:
Be careful.
Those who buy on the second day of the squeeze coincide with the forced buyers exiting.
Open your calendar. Fed minutes and Treasury announcements are now more important than coin charts. Write down the dates.
Note 69k. If it closes above and holds, the story changes. If it can’t hold, today was just a bounce.
I’ve been in this market for 12 years. If you don’t know the reason for the rise, you won’t know the reason for the fall either. You’ll be the last to learn in both.
Save this. In the next sharp move, these ten points will $BTC Recently, the surge in gold prices has been somewhat unreasonable.
At the beginning of August, it was still hovering around $4000, but in just over ten days, it surged all the way, breaking through the $4500 mark today. The short-term rise has been alarmingly fast.
The root cause of this rally is not a sudden outbreak of war, but rather weakening US data. Non-farm payrolls and inflation have successively fallen below expectations, leading the market to gradually abandon the idea of continuous Fed rate hikes. US Treasury yields have dropped, the dollar has weakened, opening up room for gold to rise; additionally, the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, which directly triggered a bullish overnight rally.
Another steady force supporting the bottom is that global central banks continue to hoard gold. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 21 consecutive months, with long-term buying pressure consistently present, making a deep plunge unlikely.
However, the biggest problem now is severe short-term overbought conditions.
Nearly a 10% increase in just three weeks has piled up a large amount of short-term profit-taking. Any slightly hawkish US data can easily trigger a sharp correction, and a big bearish candlestick is very normal.
The medium- to long-term bullish logic remains: the Fed's rate hike cycle is likely nearing its end, geopolitical conflicts remain uncertain, and the long-term demand for de-dollarization will not disappear. $XAU On August 18, the U.S. SEC officially announced a new set of regulatory proposals for Crypto assets. I believe this could be a more important step in U.S. Crypto regulation this year than many ETF approvals. Because ETFs address: how traditional capital buys Crypto. But this time, the SEC wants to solve: how a Crypto project can legally issue Tokens, raise funds, and then survive. Reuters confirmed that if the rules are ultimately implemented as currently drafted, some U.S. Crypto companies will have two new Token financing paths in the future, and the SEC also proposed a Safe Harbor mechanism allowing Crypto assets that meet certain conditions not to be classified as investment contracts. ① The first path: a one-time Token financing of up to $5 million. The SEC proposed that qualifying Crypto projects can use a one-time exemption to issue up to $5 million in Tokens over a maximum period of four years. This scale is not particularly large. But it is very suitable for: early-stage protocols; development teams; infrastructure projects; small companies that need Tokens to launch their networks. This solves a previously awkward problem: a truly decentralized network usually needs Tokens to start. But if Tokens have not been issued, the network cannot truly operate. And if Tokens are issued, the project team may immediately be required to complete complex registrations as traditional securities companies. This creates a typical " #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 $BTC $ETH $SNDK The relationship among U.S. Treasury yields, stocks, and cryptocurrencies
Note: This is a logical review only and does not constitute investment advice. Correlation is a probabilistic rule, not an absolute formula.
Core anchor: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield = the global risk-free rate, the denominator for pricing all risk assets.
I. U.S. Treasury yields ↔ U.S. stocks
Basic logic (DCF discount model)
Stock value = future cash flows discounted to present value using the risk-free rate (U.S. Treasury yield).
1. Treasury yields rise
• Discount rate increases, reducing the present value of future returns; high-valuation growth stocks (AI, tech) are hit hardest; value stocks and high-dividend stocks are relatively more resilient.
• Capital allocation: Treasuries offer high yields with no risk, so institutions reduce stock holdings and risk appetite declines.
• Corporate bond issuance and loan costs rise, suppressing capital expenditures and profits.
2. Treasury yields fall
• Discount rate decreases, growth stock valuations expand, and capital is willing to chase excess stock returns, benefiting the stock market.
Important: Divergences occur (not always negatively correlated)
1. Yields rise but stocks continue to rise
Driven by very strong earnings: a booming economy with sharply increasing corporate profits, where earnings outweigh the pressure from higher rates. Typical example: some AI bull market phases where rates rise but tech giants beat expectations and indices keep climbing.
2. Yields fall but stocks fall
Market trades on recession or depression expectations; concerns about collapsing future corporate profits cause stocks to fall despite low rates.
Summary:
✅ Rising rates primarily kill valuations; falling rates lift valuations; but ultimately stocks depend on corporate earnings.
II. U.S. Treasury yields ↔ Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum)
Cryptocurrencies are high-beta, non-interest-bearing risk assets with no interest or cash flow, extremely sensitive to liquidity and opportunity cost.
Transmission mechanism
1. Treasury yields rise
• Opportunity cost rises: Treasuries yield 4-5% risk-free, Bitcoin yields no interest, so capital demands higher risk compensation, reducing allocation willingness.
• Financial conditions tighten, USD liquidity tightens, institutions reduce high-volatility risk exposure, pressuring BTC and ETH; ETH is more sensitive than BTC, often falling more.
2. Treasury yields fall (rising expectations of rate cuts)
• Risk-free returns decline, capital chases high-yield assets, benefiting the overall crypto market.
Key misconception: Bitcoin is not a stable safe haven
• In special scenarios like financial crises or extreme inflation, Bitcoin may briefly act as a safe haven; in most normal market environments, Bitcoin moves in tandem with U.S. growth stocks, being a risk asset, not a safe haven.
Divergence scenarios
1. Crypto develops independent narratives: large ETF inflows, halving events can temporarily ignore Treasury strength and create independent rallies.
2. Global systemic risk-off: war, banking crises lead capital to buy Treasuries for safety, while some capital allocates to Bitcoin as an alternative safe haven, both rising simultaneously—rare exceptions.
III. Complete linkage among the three
1️⃣ Treasury yields rise
👉 Growth stocks get valuation cuts, U.S. stocks pressured; Bitcoin and Ethereum more likely to fall; ETH (high beta) > BTC > value stocks.
2️⃣ Treasury yields fall
👉 Growth stock valuations recover; crypto assets rebound, ETH gains usually exceed BTC.
3️⃣ Overheated economy (yields rise but corporate profits explode)
👉 Treasuries rise, stocks continue to strengthen; crypto may not follow, depending on USD liquidity.
4️⃣ Recession expectations (yields fall but economy is poor)
👉 Treasury yields fall, but stocks and crypto fall together; pessimistic earnings outweigh rate benefits.
IV. Sensitivity overview
Asset sensitivity to Treasury yields
U.S. growth stocks (AI tech) High
Ethereum ETH Extremely high
Bitcoin BTC High, slightly less than ETH
U.S. value stocks, high dividend Low
Practical observations
1. Watch the 10-year Treasury real yield (adjusted for inflation), more accurate than nominal yield.
2. Don’t just look at yield numbers; consider whether yield rises are due to "inflation" or "economic growth," as consequences differ.
3. Crypto market: Treasuries set the macro environment switch, but short-term trends are also influenced by ETF flows, on-chain supply, and contract leverage disturbances.Brothers, this wave of $HYPE has surged from the bottom at 58 all the way up to 72. Those who missed out yesterday probably have bruised egos. Many people around me missed the boat, but I got in on this trade, and currently, the unrealized profit has already given me a 13% return. No more chit-chat, I'll directly lay out my thought process on this trade for you—pure valuable content, no fluff.
📍 Cycle and Structure: 15-minute chart sets the tone, 4-hour chart defines the big trend
Starting with the cycle, I mainly reference the 15-minute timeframe. From the chart, you can see a classic "breakout-pullback-confirmation" pattern.
On the larger scale (4-hour/daily), $HYPE is in a high-level sideways consolidation after a one-sided rally. On the 15-minute chart, after the price touched the short-term top at 72.621, there was no cliff-like dump; instead, the selling pressure was digested through sideways or slight downward drift. This kind of high-level resistance to decline is exactly a signal that big money is "rotating positions."
📊 Indicator Rule: EMA moving averages are the lifeline
In terms of operation, I focus tightly on three EMAs: EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20.
Looking at the order book data, EMA5 (70.267) and EMA10 (70.014) have formed strong support below the candlesticks, while the 20-day EMA (69.793) acts as the "defensive levee" for this move.
My entry rule is simple: in an uptrend, the first pullback that does not break below EMA10, and without volume surges on the downside, is an excellent "entry point." My average entry price was 70.486, right on the moving average support.
🎯 Why did I open this position (core logic)?
1. Reasonable risk-reward ratio: My stop loss is strictly set at 69.7 (just a bit below the EMA20 support). If it breaks, it means the trend is weakening, so I cut losses immediately. On the upside, the previous high at 72.6 is right ahead; once broken, it’s a big gain. The risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
2. Funding rate game: Looking at the funding rate in the chart, it’s currently 0.0100%, with over 3 hours left on the countdown. A high funding rate means bullish sentiment is very strong, and the main players are very likely to harvest this high funding rate through a short-term upward surge (or a downward spike). I’m betting the main players will first push up before a pullback.
🧱 Resistance and Defense Levels (key points)
· Resistance (primary target): 72.621 (previous high on the chart). If it doesn’t break through with volume, I will definitely take profit on half my position to lock in gains and avoid a false breakout double top. If it breaks strongly, the next resistance zone is at 75.
· Resistance (secondary/new entry reference): Around 70.7-70.8, where short-term sell orders are dense, a battleground for bulls and bears.
· Defense/Stop loss: 69.7. This is the lifeline of this trade; no matter how painful, don’t hold if it breaks down.
💡 News and Sentiment
Currently, hot money in the market is focused on $HYPE, this new public chain/star project narrative. Although there’s no absolute sudden positive news, the "high funding rate" itself is the most direct reflection of market sentiment. But a reminder to brothers: 40x leverage (which I’m currently using) is not a joke. Although there’s unrealized profit protection, a spike can easily cause tens of points of volatility.
Finally, a heartfelt word:
The biggest taboo in trading is chasing after rises or panicking on falls. I was able to hold this position because I dared to buy on the pullback to the moving averages. My thoughts are for reference only; don’t blindly follow trades. When the price reaches a point, you must also be able to judge for yourself.
The wallet is ours; if you bet right, you feast; if you bet wrong, preserve capital. Staying steady is the key to longevity! Wishing everyone a profitable ride on this wave! 🚀As of around 11:50 AM Beijing time on August 20, BTC rapidly surged last night, briefly touching $70,000 for the first time since early June, then retreated to around $68,900, still up more than 7% in 24 hours. The biggest difference this time compared to previous weeks is not just breaking a round number, but the clear resonance for the first time among price, ETF inflows, and policy catalysts. ① BTC finally broke out of the consolidation zone that lasted several weeks. In recent weeks, BTC was stuck roughly between $62,000 and $66,000, repeatedly testing around $63,000, and multiple failed attempts to break above $65,000. On August 19, the price suddenly accelerated, with Coinbase briefly hitting $70,000 before retreating to about $68,900. This indicates a very clear change in market conditions: Previously, "good news came but no one chased it"; now it has become "after good news appears, funds actively chase the price." This is precisely a more important signal to judge whether the weak consolidation has truly ended than simply looking at a single bullish candle. ② BTC ETF inflows have continuously resumed, with complete data for August 17–18 showing a total inflow of $487 million. Farside final data shows: August 17: +$297.5 million August 18: +$189.3 million Total for two full trading days is about $486.8 million. Among them, on the 17th, IBIT net inflow was $160.2 million, FBTC net inflow was $111.9 million; on the 18thWhether the MUBARAK surge can transfer to OKB, the same pattern does not guarantee the same result. The easiest variable to break this logic is not the pattern similarity itself, but whether the source of liquidity that caused the MUBARAK rise can be connected identically to OKB. The facts confirmed in the original text are as follows. MUBARAK rose from the 0.016x dollar range the previous day to 0.02456 dollars on that day, recording an increase of about 46.71%. Currently, OKB is trading at 0.01606 dollars and shows a structurally similar sideways and breakout pattern to the price range before the MUBARAK rise. The original text suggests, based on this similarity, the possibility that capital may move to a similar position within the same narrative. The structural questions this event poses to the market are twofold. First, whether the MUBARAK rise is an event-driven rally of an individual stock or the beginning of a flow that revalues an entire specific sector. If the latter, OKB would be subject to the same supply-demand logic, not just simple pattern similarity #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 For many beginners just getting into strategy trading, whether it's grid trading, Martingale, or smart dollar-cost averaging, they basically fall into the same trap (or share the same misconception): they always think that once they activate an automated strategy, it's equivalent to passive income, and they can rely on the tool to make stable profits mindlessly. Here, I want to pour cold water on friends who have this idea; this thought or perception is extremely dangerous and irresponsible to your own account. There is a saying in the trading community that explains it well: there is no universal strategy in the market, only approaches that fit the market conditions. I myself have also done strategy trading, and the biggest insight is: strategies are just tools to help us organize trading rhythm and quit emotional trading. They can effectively help us avoid the bad habits of chasing highs and selling lows and frequent operations, but they cannot make up for our shortcomings in insufficient knowledge, inadequate risk control, and unstable mindset. Many beginners lose money in strategy trading not because the tools are bad, but because their trading knowledge cannot keep up and they cannot truly master these professional trading tools. Today, taking advantage of the Planet section, I am writing this article to talk about the 5 most common mistakes beginners make in strategy trading. This content is purely personal practical experience sharing, for beginners' learning and reference only. One: Treating strategies as a "capital protection magic tool" and using them blindly and mindlessly. A common mistake beginners make in strategy trading is: only looking at profits and ignoring risks. When they see others posting screenshots of strategy profits, they mistakenly think that grid, Martingale, and dollar-cost averaging automated tools are guaranteed to make money without loss. Completely ignoring the current BTC has been squeezed painfully by the bears this week, but the real focus should be on those quietly taking the positions. Do you feel this rally isn’t as "lively" as it seems? Let's look at the data first. This week, 81% of liquidations were shorts, not longs dumping their positions, but shorts being forced to cover. This structure often means the market isn’t driven by new money but is supported by the pain of old positions. BTC is repeatedly testing around 64k, ETH is holding at 1,916. There’s an easily overlooked signal on the ETH side: the foundation quietly launched the Platåberget testnet, a concrete step towards the Glamsterdam upgrade. The short-term price hasn’t reacted, but looking at this trend over a longer horizon, it’s a bullish undertone for Layer2s like ARB and OP. SOL’s open interest contracts rose 4.5%, the strongest among major coins. At times like this, capital preference is clear: people are willing to be more patient with projects that have a narrative and ecosystem, rather than spreading bets randomly. Also worth watching are LINK, AAVE, ONDO, and SUI, each with their own rhythm but all waiting for a resonant opportunity. The bullish logic is that after the bears are cleaned out, selling pressure temporarily thins; if BTC can hold above 64k, sentiment has room to recover further. But risks lurk in the shadows: this low-volatility accumulation could also mean big players are waiting for others to take over, and any external disturbance could quickly flip the market. Don’t just watch the price, watchMany people watch the CORE price every day, but I have started to look at what exactly is in its ecosystem.
The official website now shows quite a few projects like DeFi, RWA, wallets, lending, DEX, oracles, and payments. At least from the ecosystem directory, CORE is no longer just a token sitting there for speculation.
Of course, having many projects doesn't necessarily mean success, and I’m not hyping that.
What really matters is whether these things can generate real users, real transactions, and real revenue in the future.
But at least now, the reason I continue to follow CORE is no longer just "hoping it will rise" so simply. $CORE $BTC Federal Reserve July FOMC minutes 9 to 3, officials still divided on rate hikes
The July FOMC minutes were officially released, with 9 votes to keep rates unchanged and 3 votes opposing, advocating a 25BP rate hike. The rare three dissenting votes in nearly a decade directly exposed internal policy divisions within the Federal Reserve, prompting the market to reassess the interest rate path after September.
Most members chose to wait and see, with the core logic being the need for more time to verify the sustainability of the inflation decline. Although U.S. consumption and employment show resilience, marginal weakening signs have appeared. Rash rate hikes would amplify the risk of a hard economic landing, so the decision was to keep rates steady and wait for clear guidance from key data such as CPI and PCE. The three hawkish officials who voted against expressed concerns about the transmission of rising energy prices and inflation stickiness exceeding expectations. They believe the current financial tightening is insufficient, and if tightening is not done in advance, larger hikes may be forced later at a higher cost. The minutes also clarified that many members reserved the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation rebounds, keeping the option on the table.
The biggest current contradiction is that the Federal Reserve is clearly divided internally, with one side wary of economic downside pressure and the other constrained by high inflation and oil price disturbances. The market had previously traded on rate cut expectations, but these minutes shattered the illusion of rapid easing. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are under renewed upward pressure, and equity asset valuations are correspondingly constrained. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #FOMC9To3Split The latest FOMC minutes revealed a surprisingly divided Federal Reserve. Officials voted 9–3 to maintain the federal-funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, while Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack and Neel Kashkari preferred a 25-basis-point increase. Most members supported waiting, partly because softer inflation and weaker employment data reduced the case for immediate tightening. However, several officials warned that another increase could become necessary if inflation stops improving.
The minutes create a mixed environment for risk assets. A September hold would reduce near-term pressure on Bitcoin, equities and growth stocks, but persistent inflation and elevated long-term Treasury yields remain important risks. The Fed also discussed vulnerabilities connected to AI-infrastructure financing, expensive stock valuations and Treasury-market volatility. Investors should therefore avoid interpreting “no immediate hike” as a return to easy money. Upcoming CPI, employment and wage data will determine whether the three dissenting officials gain additional support.BTC officially broke through the $69,000 mark, reaching as high as $69,888 during the session, just a step away from the psychological $70,000 threshold. Meanwhile, ETH surged in tandem, rising over 8% to around $2,119. 🚀 The direct trigger for this rally came from a key move by the U.S. Treasury: expanding the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases. This pushed the 30-year Treasury yield down sharply from a 19-year high of 5.33%, boosting market risk appetite and accelerating capital inflows into crypto assets. From the market perspective, BTC's breakout is not an isolated event but a systemic rebound driven by improved macro liquidity expectations. The decline in Treasury yields means the suppression of risk assets by the risk-free rate is easing, providing a more accommodative valuation environment for high-risk assets like Bitcoin. ETH's strong performance also confirms this, indicating that capital is not solely chasing BTC but that overall risk appetite is warming. However, it should be noted that $70,000 is not only a psychological barrier but also a previous dense trading zone, with significant overhead resistance. If the price cannot hold with volume in the short term, it may enter a phase of high-level consolidation and digestion. Meanwhile, the follow-up pace of Treasury repurchase policies and Federal Reserve officials' statements on inflation will remain key variables influencing market sentiment. Overall, this rally is supported by macro logic, but investors should remain cautious of high-level volatility risks and avoid blindly chasing the rally. While market sentiment is hot, rational positioning is the key to long-term success