What would happen if the Federal Reserve only held 6 meetings a year?
On August 20, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting.
Everyone was focused on that 9-to-3 vote — the fifth consecutive time holding steady, with 3 hawks insisting on a rate hike.
But the minutes hid something else, even more worth noting than the rate hike.
Federal Reserve Chair Waller quietly pushed a proposal:
Cut the Fed’s annual meetings from 8 to 6.
What’s the reason?
Waller said that meeting every two months would "accumulate more information" and give policymakers and staff "more time to consider strategic monetary policy issues."
In plain language: the current pace is too fast; we don’t have enough time to think properly.
But is Waller himself the person who "doesn’t have enough time to think properly"?
At the press conference after the July meeting, Waller’s performance was "widely criticized" in the market.
He failed to clearly explain the reasons for maintaining rates.
He avoided explaining under what conditions he would change his policy stance.
He even hinted at possibly adjusting the 2% inflation target.
Someone who can’t clearly explain why to hold steady is now saying to hold fewer meetings.
Do you think he wants to "accumulate more information"?
Or does he want to reduce the chances of being forced to explain?
What does fewer meetings mean?
Fewer policy adjustment windows, and each meeting’s market impact doubles.
Previously, 8 meetings a year, about one every one and a half months. The market had 8 chances to "bet on meetings."
Going forward, 6 meetings a year, one big event every two months.
Volatility won’t disappear — it will just be more concentrated and erupt more violently.
What’s more painful: the minutes clearly state the 2026 schedule remains unchanged.
But the direction of reform is set.
Waller is reshaping not just interest rates — but the entire market’s "expected rhythm."
What does this mean for the crypto market?
After the minutes were released, Bitcoin surged 5.3% to $68,245.
But don’t celebrate too soon.
"A quieter Fed is a harder-to-read Fed."
Fewer meetings = fewer signals = much harder market interpretation.
Before, there was a "bet on meetings" opportunity every month. Now, only one big event every two months.
Macro shocks will be more "concentrated."
One meeting decides the direction for two months.
The cost of a wrong bet doubles.
What’s the deeper logic?
What Waller is doing is not just a schedule adjustment.
He is reducing the Fed’s "presence."
Fewer meetings, less talking, less guidance.
Leaving uncertainty for the market to digest on its own.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
The macro narrative shifts from a "predictable rhythm" to "unpredictable bursts."
Before, you could plan according to the calendar — the next meeting in 6 weeks, slowly build your position.
Now? One meeting every two months, with a vacuum period in between.
During the vacuum, any small disturbance can be amplified.
Volatility won’t disappear, it will erupt more violently.
So, what really makes me anxious isn’t rate hikes.
It’s that Waller is turning the Fed from a "predictable machine" into a "black box."
Fewer meetings, less talking, less direction.
What the market fears most isn’t bad news — it’s no news.
Because when there’s no news, everyone guesses.
Guess wrong, it’s a crash.
Guess right? Congratulations, two months of expectations fulfilled at once.
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