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Reflections on 5 Years of Full-Time Trading Since resigning from a central enterprise in April 2021 to trade full-time, it has now been a full 5 years. Since it's been five years, I thought I should write something to leave a record. In these 5 years, I have devoted all my passion, time, and money. ------------------------------- My schoolmate and comrade said I played a good hand terribly. I was a special forces soldier, the only one in our entire regiment who served 2 years and still joined the Party. After discharge, I returned to school, transferring from our school's top architecture major to the tough civil engineering major. But by graduation, I was one of only two people who got hired by a certain central enterprise through my own efforts. (Because by the time our school recruited for this major, that central enterprise had already filled their quota; they hired two people, me and a classmate whose family elder was reportedly a retired senior provincial official). Graduating from university with the honors of being a former special forces soldier, a national flag guard, a provincial outstanding graduate, and scoring over 500 on English CET-4 and CET-6, I entered a Fortune 500 central enterprise. In the company, due to high emotional intelligence, good image, and sound cognition and logical thinking, I was well regarded by leadership. If things had continued on this path, I probably would have become a leader like my schoolmate and comrade. --------------------------- However, by a twist of fate, I entered the narrow gate of professional trading. At the beginning of 2021, after earning my first ten-million-level fortune, I mistakenly thought trading was a profession that could be easily successful. Like most people, I became arrogant. Winning 1.5 million on one trade and losing 2 million on another didn’t faze me because I believed I was truly the chosen one, the god of trading. At this rate, even Buffett wouldn’t be on my radar. From the second half of 2021, I started steadily losing money, tens of thousands at a time. I would lose, then chase, then hold on to profits without taking them, only to lose again before exiting. At the start of 2022, I began to panic. First, because my funds were running low, almost depleted; second, I realized the technical indicators I had learned before seemed useless. From 2022 to 2024, I began a new phase of my trading life, the second and third years, constantly writing review notes. Although they seem naive now, I believe this was my first step toward change. By the end of 2024, I started to awaken, realizing that the MA, MACD, and other technical indicators I had painstakingly reviewed were useless and wrong. But at that time, I was still skeptical and gradually verifying my new understanding. In the winter solstice of 2025, I truly reached enlightenment. I became very certain that short-term contract trading does not rely on various technical indicators but on volume, price, and structural breakout behavior. In 2025, I achieved twice turning $200 into $40,000 in 20 days, a 200x return. This gave me great confidence. I had just awakened to the fact that my spiritual guide in trading was the couch potato Bitcoin, who said in 2021 at A&A that trading correctness is unrelated to principal. But why did I earn and then lose it back? One reason is economic pressure in real life; the second is lack of self-control. These two issues are still what I am striving to overcome. When cognition reaches the correct dimension, unity of knowledge and action is effective. If cognition is wrong, unity of execution only compounds the error. After saying so much, what I want to tell everyone is that trading ultimately comes down to volume, price, and structure. Don’t waste energy chasing some trading holy grail or deceptive technical indicators. My trading has really come full circle and returned to basics: chase breakouts, stop loss on false breakouts. It really is that simple. I don’t know how far this path will take me, but as long as I can keep going, I will walk it steadfastly and unwaveringly.

$VVV After all that, it's not a new coin What am I even doing for you

$VVV This breakout is exactly what I mentioned before about having a bit of bad luck The breakout was made near point 1, then I took a floating profit of $2000 It didn’t hold sideways at a high level and then made a pullback at point 2 Actually, breakout pullbacks are normal, but it’s not my specialty; I’m good at breakouts with high-level support Then there was a big wick at point 3 Now it’s moving up This is also a strong shakeout; the shaking will wear down your mindset

Here are some data points for everyone to judge the market outlook themselves: $BTC $ETH 1. Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $517 million yesterday, hitting a three-and-a-half-month high, real money flowing in 2. In the past 3 days, over $4 billion in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with an estimated half belonging to Bitcoin, over $2 billion 3. In other words, with less than $3 billion in buying, the coin price rose from 64k to 76k 3. Looking at Coinbase's premium chart, the first wave of the rally is within the red box (the first rapid premium increase), driven by real money from Americans, accompanied by the first day of massive short liquidations. Judging from the subsequent sharp drop in premium, it might be a wash trading, but the price was supported by spot and futures. The reason is that after massive liquidations, the futures open interest did not decrease much, indicating some funds stepped in, and ETF inflows started to increase significantly. Then, at the US stock market open overnight, another wave of real money came in (the red area shrinks quickly), with little increase in open interest, indicating the US spot market still dominates, so the risk remains low. Now, during Asian trading hours, the discount is widening again (the red area expands again), and futures open interest has increased somewhat, indicating some are starting to leverage long positions, and risk is beginning to accumulate. In summary, Trump's policies plus pressure from long-term bond yields have driven this Bitcoin rally. Rapid rises will gather short-term risks. Those who missed out need not worry, and holders need not panic. What you need to know is that the US crypto trading channel is very smooth, so sentiment lasting 2-3 days is normal, and will fade if it lasts longer. When the gains become too large combined with fading sentiment, a correction will occur. At that time, if you still believe the bear market is over or the cost-performance ratio is right, entering then will be cheaper than now. (Shared from X strategist, not my personal view)

$VVV Although betting on a breakout is not right But Bitcoin and Ethereum have both risen like this You are still consolidating near the previous highs If this consolidation is not an adjustment for a breakout, then what is it for?

US CLARITY Act, a milestone legislation in crypto About to be submitted for Trump's signature, which means a 100% chance of passing. 1. Clarifies SEC/CFTC regulation, BTC and ETH are expected to be classified as digital commodities 2. Open-source DeFi developers gain protection, self-custody wallets recognized 3. Opens the channel for institutional funds to enter The recent rise of Bitcoin should be directly related to this $BTC

Why is Bitcoin rising? $BTC The reason is not cryptocurrency. Listen, I'll write it in order: 1. The U.S. Treasury doubled the size of bond repurchases. Each operation increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. 2. The target is 10-30 year bonds. The government is repurchasing its longest-term debt. 3. The reason is as follows: the 30-year yield reached a 19-year high. When government debt yields are this high, no one wants to take risks. 4. The repurchase action lowers interest rates, and funds flow back into risk assets. This opens the road to Bitcoin. 5. The market has been heavily shorted. Everyone expects a decline, everyone is shorting. 6. Within just 4 hours, $1.4 billion in short positions were liquidated. These buyers are not because they love Bitcoin, but forced to buy to stop losses. 7. The price broke through the 200-day moving average, at $69,031. It had been below this line for months. Technical buy orders were also triggered. 8. On the same day, the SEC announced regulatory drafts. It clarified the capital raising framework, paving the way for mature networks to exit the securities category. 9. The White House will hold a cryptocurrency meeting. Coinbase, Ripple, a16z will participate. The market has already priced in this positive news. 10. Funds flowed back into ETFs. On August 17, led by BlackRock and Fidelity, net inflows were $297.5 million. Now the key point. Remember this: Bitcoin no longer acts alone. It rises when funds are abundant, falls when funds decrease. You can't understand just by looking at charts because the reason is not in the charts. Honestly, this is not a trend reversal. Most of the rise comes from forced buying. Liquidated shorts only buy once; they won't repeat the next day. Strategy surged 13% today, Coinbase rose 11%. Both have fallen more than 35% since the beginning of the year. A one-day rebound cannot erase a year's losses. What you should do: Be cautious. Buying on the second day of the squeeze likely means catching those forced buyers exiting. Open your calendar. Fed meeting minutes and Treasury statements are now more important than Bitcoin charts. Mark the dates. Note 69,000 points. If it closes and holds above, the story changes. If it doesn't hold, today is just a jump. I've been in this market for 12 years. If you don't know why it rises, you don't know why it falls. In both cases, you are always the last to know. Save this. Next time there is a big fluctuation, check these ten points in the same order. (Content above is reposted from a certain X blogger)