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The October FOMC is coming soon, and the market is saying "this time it's stable, no rate hike," but I think don't be too happy too early, there are still quite a few variables.
Several key variables:
Inflation is still high. September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, PPI year-on-year is 6.3%, prices haven't come down, so the Federal Reserve has reason to continue tightening.
Waller doesn't play by the rules. New chairman Waller refuses to "reveal the bottom" to the market in advance, breaking the usual practice of the chairman guiding expectations ahead of time, so the risk of a surprise rate hike cannot be ignored.
The AI boom drives demand. Waller himself said AI investment is pushing up total demand, which is itself a variable for inflation.
Midterm elections are approaching. The election is on November 3rd, and a rate hike at the end of October could easily be labeled as "political maneuvering," which is also a tricky point.
Impact on the crypto circle: Pausing rate hikes relieves liquidity pressure, risk assets may rebound; a surprise rate hike strengthens the dollar, and the crypto circle will most likely drop.
Outlook:
$BTC is fluctuating around $81,000, direction is unclear before the FOMC, only stabilizing above $83,000 has a chance, otherwise it will continue to bottom out.
$ETH is weak around $2,400, lagging behind Bitcoin, wait for the Federal Reserve's tone before seeing if it can rebound.
$SOL is around $104, ETF funds are still flowing out, short-term pressure, need to wait for signs of fund recovery.
In short, don't heavily bet on direction before October 28, wait for the shoe to drop. What do you think? Let's chat in the comments #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 比特币从隔夜约80,700美元的低点攀升至周一早盘略高于83,000美元，随后在半小时内回吐大部分涨幅，报82,188美元，24小时涨幅为0.3%。这波走势紧随科技股期货反弹，此前纳斯达克100指数上周下跌5.5%。这波行情主要印证了比特币仍处于区间震荡：过去五个交易日中，80,000美元附近已四次守住支撑，而84,000美元则三次阻挡比特币继续上涨。 关键在于震荡区间，而非反弹 周四测试79,800美元、周五测试80,746美元，整个周末如此，隔夜又触及80,700美元。四次接近支撑位，四次都守住了。 10月13日，价格在84,000美元附近遇阻；10月14日再次受阻；今天早上则在83,000美元处遇阻——距离此前阻止价格上行的水平还差约1,000美元。 周一，价格在半小时内从83,000美元回落至82,400美元，说明卖方在这一区间顶部伺机而动。市场在区间上下边界均遇阻、却未能突破任何一侧，意味着市场正在盘整；接下来最值得关注的是哪一侧会率先失守。 若比特币持续突破84,000美元，将首次表明科技股反弹正在带动比特币上涨，而非比特币涨势已超过科技股。 比特币几乎没有跟上科技股反弹 The overall market sentiment is warming up, but DOGE is bleeding alone. The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 59, entering the greed zone, indicating a rebound in risk appetite. However, this warmth has not flowed to Dogecoin: it has dropped 9.23% over the past seven days, diverging from the index. The combination of greed and decline points to one conclusion—DOGE is undergoing structural marginalization, with funds flowing away from it to other assets.
Behind this divergence is a shift in narrative focus. Bitcoin is supported by ETFs and institutional allocations, Ethereum benefits from staking yields and upgrade expectations, attracting short-term funds to new hotspots; DOGE’s rally logic depends on Elon Musk’s endorsements and the imagination of payment scenarios, but the marginal effect of this clue is diminishing. The market confirms this: volume fails to keep up during rebounds, support is weak during declines, and holders reduce positions on each rally rather than adding.
For holders, the key is not how high the index can go, but whether DOGE can find new incremental logic—payment implementation, application expansion, or other entry points that can attract new funds. Until then, the market warming may only mean others rise while $DOGE remains flat or declines. Money doesn’t lie; when greed cannot awaken an asset, the market has already ranked it with real money. For DOGE to escape marginalization, it relies not on sentiment warming but on new buying reasons.#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
Don't rush to take “no rate hike in October” as a certainty; there might still be a trap here.
The market currently bets about an 83% chance of no change in October, which sounds stable. But the problem lies with Fed Chair Walsh: he clearly said he won't inform the market in advance about his plans, breaking the old tradition where chairs would "give a heads-up." In other words, the roughly 15% chance of a rate hike priced in by the market might underestimate Walsh's likelihood of "speaking with data."
The uncertainty lies in inflation: September CPI year-over-year at 3.7%, PPI year-over-year at 6.3%, both still hot. Walsh said back in August that inflation worries him more than employment; if he wants to act based on data, a direct rate hike on October 28 would catch the market off guard.
For the crypto space, the no rate hike scenario is already priced in; the real risk is an "unexpected rate hike" that would strengthen the dollar, hammer risk assets collectively, and crypto won't escape.
$BTC is stuck near 82,000, with 83,000 above as a hard ceiling; ETFs were still seeing outflows last week, so it's likely to continue grinding before the FOMC. $ETH is around 2,390, with sellers appearing at rebounds to 2,410–2,430, weaker than BTC. $SOL is fluctuating near 105, with resistance at 106–107, representing a consolidation after a big drop, without an independent rally.
In short: don't bet on "all bad news priced in," keep some bullets ready in case Walsh doesn't play by the rules.#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Three Major Business Segments Split
1. Starlink (Connectivity Business): The core cash cow, with revenue of $4.3 billion this quarter, up 66% year-over-year, and a user base reaching 12 million; also secured a long-term contract for the U.S. government's Starshield, which is a major source of company profits.
2. AI Computing Power Business: Revenue of $2.561 billion, the fastest growth segment, mainly providing computing power leasing to Anthropic and Google; however, this segment requires huge investment and is still operating at a loss If this week's rebound is just an emotional recovery rather than a trend reversal, will those chasing the highs end up standing on the mountaintop in the wind again? 🍓 I've been watching SOXL and SNXX, this cross-market thermometer, all week. The deep pit smashed last week was mostly filled back this week with a big bullish candle, the pace is so fast it’s a bit dizzying. On the surface, it looks like two targets are recovering, but the actual trade is on the expectation of risk appetite warming up—the semiconductor chain’s elasticity is being repriced, and this sentiment will seep into crypto through cross-market linkage. Here’s the signal I see: the rebound is still continuing, but it’s far from a "reversal." This level of volatility is more suitable for using a grid strategy within a wide range to capture price differences and protect principal, rather than betting on a one-sided move. Only touching spot, not contracts—the fee alone is enough to discourage people; leverage in this kind of volatility only amplifies hesitation and FOMO. What’s the second layer of impact? The warming of high-beta targets like SOXL often leads risk appetite to return first, then BTC and ETH feel the warmth; altcoins usually follow later and are more selective in their narrative. But the problem now is, how much of this recovery has already been priced in? Crowd psychology is subtle: those who panicked and sold at the low last week are hesitating whether to chase after seeing the big bullish candle this week, and narrative fatigue makes people afraid to go heavy. This "want to get on board but afraid to catch a knife" state is the most fragile part of the rebound itself. Bullish path: if cross-market linkage continues to strengthen, the semiconductor chain’s recovery will gradually transmit into a rise in crypto risk appetite,$ETH On the same day, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $527 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $103 million.📊
What’s more contrasting is that the main player on both sides is the same company: BlackRock.
🔹 BTC: IBIT had a single-day inflow of $665 million, more than the entire market combined, while other products had a total net outflow of about $138 million
🔹 ETH: ETHA had a single-day outflow of $95.4 million, accounting for over 90% of the total outflow that day
🔹 ETH ETFs have had net outflows for 4 consecutive trading days
How to interpret these numbers?
1️⃣ The $527 million inflow for BTC is the largest single-day inflow in nearly a month, but it’s almost entirely supported by one product, indicating concentrated capital
2️⃣ Products from the same company show inflows and outflows, with capital clearly diverging between BTC and ETH
3️⃣ ETH ETF assets under management stand at $14.765 billion, accounting for 5.04% of ETH’s total market cap, down from 5.16% on October 13
Single-day data can fluctuate greatly; looking at the direction over several consecutive days is more informative.
Have you recently adjusted your BTC and ETH position ratios?#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Netflix Earnings Report on Advertising
1. Increment: Advertising revenue is growing rapidly, providing additional contribution to total revenue and high gross margin boosting profits
2. Retention: The low-price ad-supported tier absorbs price-sensitive users lost due to price hikes and password crackdown, stabilizing the subscriber base
3. Drag: Increased penetration of ad plans dilutes overall ARM (Average Revenue per Member), which is the main negative pressure
4. Still Small: Current ad revenue share is still low, overseas rollout is slow, Q3 is just a validation phase, explosive growth expected by 2027Oil prices are pushing back to $110, but the crypto market's rebound still lacks momentum!
On October 20, oil prices hit $110.70 amid rising supply risks in the Middle East; the U.S. eased some energy restrictions on Russia but failed to alleviate market concerns over supply disruptions. High oil prices, inflation, and interest rate pressures remain hidden risks for risk assets.
The liquidity situation is even more critical! Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $228 million, ETH net outflow was about $320 million, and SOL ETFs also experienced an outflow of around $26 million. Although selling pressure has eased, institutional buying has not truly returned.
Key support for BTC is at $80,000; if broken, further downside is possible. ETH is watching $2,400; a break below could extend weakness. SOL is focused on the $100 mark; whether the upgrade expectations can be realized depends on trading volume and capital flow.
Don’t just focus on the news! Oil prices determine macro pressure, capital flow validates buying, and key levels decide short-term direction. Without a volume breakout, don’t easily assume a reversal. $ETH $ZEC $BTC #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #嘉信开放BTC转账，德银布局托管 #霍尔木兹重开方案仍有效，油价能否继续回落？ $ETH "How much profit-taking is left for $ETH, seriously!!?"
Since the 2024 high, Tom Lee's Bitmine (BMNR) has spent about $14.3 billion buying the dip.
Their holdings are almost at the initially agreed 5% circulating supply, yet ETH's price still looks like it has no bottom in sight.
Here is the related data:
- ETH holdings: 6,041,481 coins, accounting for 4.9% of total supply
- Average cost: $3,334, unrealized loss of $4.781 billion (-23.8%)
- Staked: 5,067,309 coins, with an annualized income of about $309 million 🟠 $BTC ETF single-day net inflow of $527 million, the largest single-day scale since September, with IBIT alone inflowing $665.2 million, while Fidelity and Grayscale are outflowing. The positive news has come out, but the market hasn't followed. Current price is 81,645, still below the 50EMA at 82,249, here I am bearish. The 82,600 level has been tested 13 times, held 4 times, broken 7 times, and no reaction 2 times; this resistance above is tough to break. Open interest fell 2.1% in 24 hours, price dropped 1.3%, indicating longs are closing positions and exiting, not new shorts entering. In the past 47.8 hours, longs liquidated $12.9 million, shorts liquidated $15.9 million, both sides are taking hits. Breaking above 82,249 would invalidate this, support I watch is at 81,033. ETF funds are flowing in, but the market is bearish, what do you think? #BlackRockBTCBufferETF #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Advertising is "a significant contributor, still a small proportion, with both positives and negatives" for Netflix in Q3: it brings new revenue while creating the contradiction of "ARPU dilution," making it the biggest narrative variable in this earnings report.
First, a rough expectation for Q3:
• Consensus for Q3 advertising revenue is about $720 million to $770 million; full-year target is $3 billion (about double by 2025)
• Accounts for approximately 5.6% to 6.0% of Q3 total revenue — still not a large scale, but growth rate is the highest among all segments (year-over-year +70% to 80%) $PONS fundamentals show signs of stabilizing.
Current daily trading volume is about $3 million, possibly nearing a short-term bottom; daily revenue is about $50,000, and if volume holds steady, approximately 100,000 tokens are burned daily. Under the current Robinhood Chain environment, on-chain trading volume is expected to maintain around $80 million.
Latest on-chain data is also recovering: trading volume 3 million–3.7 million (+15.6%), platform fees 269,000–457,000 (+67.3%), protocol revenue 36,000–68,000, currently averaging about 50,000 daily (+88.9%), newly launched tokens 1,100–1,800 (+54.5%).
If this rebound continues, the fundamentals will be considered in recovery. Referencing ORDI and PEPE, which plunged 85% after listing on exchanges, PONS is not at the bottom now but is not far from it.This earnings report exceeding revenue expectations is basically a given, but whether the stock price rises or not doesn't depend on revenue; it depends on whether the burn rate can be caught up by income.
First, looking at the revenue side, AI contracts are indeed being realized in concentration. The annualized scale of long-term computing power orders from several major giants is huge, and even with conservative estimates, the quarter-on-quarter growth is significant. The year-on-year revenue growth is astonishing; this is the first time the AI computing power story has been validated by solid contracts.
But the problem lies in the expenditure side. The capital expenditure for a single quarter is extremely high, with most invested in AI infrastructure, and the revenue for the quarter is less than half of the money burned. Although Starlink is the only stable profit engine, the free cash flow generated in a year is nowhere near enough to fill the huge gap created by rockets and AI combined. The stock price plummeted after the last earnings report because of this.
Therefore, the real variable in this earnings report is not the revenue figures but whether management dares to provide a clear capital expenditure peak timeline and free cash flow inflection point guidance. If they do, the market will accept this long-term story of burning money first and collecting rent later; if not, no matter how good the revenue looks, the stock will still be hammered after hours.
My view is straightforward: don't bet on the stock price exceeding expectations just because revenue exceeds expectations. This earnings report is about the burn rate, not revenue growth. Don't heavily bet on direction on earnings night; wait for the capital expenditure guidance after hours before making a move. $SPCX $xSPCX #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Three main logical lines:
1. Price increase dividends concentrated realization: The previous price hikes in the US/Mexico/Spain were fully accounted for in Q3, which is the main reason for the rise in ARM (Average Revenue per Member); password sharing crackdown has entered a stable contribution period.
2. Advertising business acceleration: The market expects annual advertising revenue to approach $3 billion (about double compared to 2025); a small amount of sports live broadcast advertising (MLB, NFL overseas games) has already been implemented in Q3, but the advertising package has not yet been widely rolled out in Europe, so the short-term share of total revenue remains low.
3. Moderate slowdown in growth, profit priority: Revenue growth rate slightly declined compared to Q2 (+13.4%); management focuses on profit margin, free cash flow, and stock buybacks (with about 27 billion buyback quota remaining); risks come from the exchange rate drag caused by a strong US dollar, rising user churn rate in the US market, and content investment exceeding expectations.
The 3 most closely watched signals after the earnings report:
• Whether the year-on-year growth rate of ARM (Average Revenue per Member) reaches the 5-7% range
• Management's verbal guidance on advertising package penetration rate and advertising ARPU
• Preliminary outlook for Q4/2027, especially profit margin and content spending plansATOM has shown some recovery, related to the renewed optimism in the cross-chain sector. Recently, the market has been revisiting topics like institutional funds going on-chain and public chain settlement, which also tends to boost the value of cross-chain infrastructure. The issue with Cosmos has never been a lack of technical narrative, but rather the need to validate value capture and the efficiency of ecosystem capital. The volume surge in the market rebound indicates that some funds are trying to fill back in, but whether this can develop into a sustained trend depends on the activity of ecosystem projects, liquidity, and whether the market continues to favor the infrastructure sector. $ATOMWLFI's popularity still mainly comes from its strong topic attributes. Active trading indicates that market attention is not low, but it also means short-term capital speculation is intense. After a surge, the market pulled back, reflecting that capital still has differing views on valuation and subsequent catalysts. It is not a coin that can be fully explained by traditional technical indicators; news, ecosystem actions, circulation structure, and community sentiment all significantly affect its rhythm. In the short term, watch whether turnover is healthy. If volume continues to increase but the price does not move, be wary of expanding chip divergence. $WLFI
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Markets putting the odds of unchanged October rates above 80% says expectations are settled for now, not that the decision is. September CPI and PPI running above forecasts leave the Fed with an awkward test: inflation may still challenge a pause even as markets lean toward one.
The blackout period means the next guidance will matter as much as the vote.
#WillFedPauseInOctober $ETH is stuck in the 2400 squeeze, which way will it break?
Many friends are watching ETH at the 2400 level, and now it's grinding back and forth here, currently priced at 2390, slightly weakening intraday. Technically, it is still running below the moving average, with short-term oversold conditions, but don't rush to bottom-fish yet; the reversal signal hasn't come.
Focus on two key levels: the downside 2360 is the lifeline; a daily close below it opens room for adjustment; the upside 2440 is the first hurdle, and only by holding above 2450 can the rebound aim for 2500.
The funding gap is very clear: ETH ETF continued to outflow 103 million yesterday, bleeding for four consecutive days, totaling 950 million outflows in October; meanwhile, BTC ETF is aggressively absorbing funds, showing different institutional choices, which is a key reason why Ethereum can't outperform Bitcoin.
There are also some positives: the Glamsterdam testnet upgrade is coming at the end of the month, rekindling expansion expectations; JPMorgan's JPM Coin launching on Ethereum keeps the institutional adoption narrative alive.
Right now, it's a typical range-bound battle: ETFs are selling, whales are buying at lows, and the upgrade countdown is on. No need to predict in advance; if no breakout occurs, just wait and watch. Act only when it breaks below 2360 or decisively holds above 2450 with volume. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ $BTC $SOL Last night at 23:00, after touching 928.22, MU was suppressed all the way down, now at 890.32, down 1.73% in 24 hours.
Three phases:
23:00 surged to 928.22 and closed at 924.12; at 00:00, a bearish candle of -1.62% with volume 12741 smashed it down to 909;
08:00 another bearish candle of -1.49% with volume 7456 cut it down to 892.74;
09:00 and 10:00 a rebound to 901.99, still half a step below the 906.85 sideways zone, then from 11:00 to 13:00 three consecutive bearish candles closed at 887.75.
Each rebound is lower than the last: from 928 down to 902. MA20 at 904.74 is pressing from above, price is fourteen points below it. The 24-hour low of 885.14 is right below.
This is not a completed pullback ready to rise, but a secondary bottom test.
If the rebound at 898~902 fails and closes bearish with volume → short, stop loss at 906, target 885.14, extended target 875, risk-reward ratio 2.5.
If it breaks 885.14, do not chase the first candle, wait for a pullback that does not hold above 885.
If it closes with volume above 906 → the rebound turns into a reversal, invalidate short positions.
US stock market is closed, tokens falling first is pre-pricing, keep position size small.
$MU
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)$BTC There's a detail I need to clarify: today's real buzz isn't about ETFs, but a company called Strategy just bought 267 BTC.
267 coins, at a price over 81,000 each, amounts to more than 20 million dollars. For this company, it's not a huge order, but you have to look at the frequency of their actions—they're not trading, they're slowly transforming the company's balance sheet into a Bitcoin warehouse.
What about retail investors? They sweat when it drops 100 dollars, regret not buying more when it rises 200 dollars, and start doubting life after three days of sideways movement. They don't even look at candlesticks.
So with the current market, my short-term cautious stance isn't without reason—81,644, down 2.7% from seven days ago, with volume only 80% of usual, grinding down over the past few days. The mid-term isn't bad though, still over 20% higher than three months ago, just pulling back about seven percentage points from the recent six-month high. The problem is, this batch of coin holders doesn't respond to short-term selling pressure; they keep ten-year ledgers, not five-minute ledgers. $BTC $SPCX looks bearish to me, but I prefer to let time value decay before making a firm directional decision. The stock increasingly resembles a crypto altcoin, with heavy 0DTE speculation and options activity making earnings predictions more challenging. Here’s my current view: The $148–149 range appears to be a key price zone, where options positioning may be keeping the stock pinned. Earnings could differ slightly from expectations, but I doubt the results will be strong enough to trigger a majoTo pour some cold water first, I don't take this large long position as evidence of a bullish outlook. Core Trader 14 just opened a long $BTC position with 40x leverage, with a nominal position size of about $916,500. My judgment is: this looks more like a trade with strict timing requirements; you can't just look at the direction and ignore that it might not hold up.
I'm stuck on two points. First, roughly calculating margin by dividing nominal position by leverage, the margin is about $22,900, and a price move of about 2.5% against the position could wipe out this initial margin; actual liquidation depends on margin mode, additional funding, etc., so you can't just draw a line. Second, monitoring shows no stop loss or holding plan; opening a long only proves willingness to bet, not that the odds are favorable. If the price drops first then rises, even if the direction is ultimately correct, a high-leverage position might not survive. The worst is when the judgment hasn't changed but the margin can't hold up first.
Of course, he might have caught the short-term window correctly; I won't short just for the sake of shorting. If later I see active deleveraging and clear loss control, I will revise my cautious evaluation of this trade. Regarding this 40x long, are you bullish or bearish? Give your reasons: do you trust his direction more, or worry more that adverse price moves will liquidate the position first? The short position at 216 yesterday should have been closed once 223.3 was broken; the market pushed up, acknowledged.
Today at 227.80, a 24-hour increase of 4.26%, moving from 208.2 to 236.9, a rise of 13.8%.
What should be watched most now is volume: the spike at 21:00 with 1648, the drop at 00:00 with -2.23% and volume 1791, and the 03:00 spike with 2467 all had volume. But from 05:00 onwards, volumes of 82, 93, 184, 378, 268, 219, 59, 190 — the volume bars collapsed.
The volume collapse is not because no one is watching, but because the US stock market is closed, and no one is taking over tokens here. The sideways movement between 226.3 and 228.6 over these twelve hours is neither a flag nor a triangle pattern; it’s a line drawn in a liquidity vacuum. Patterns in a vacuum don’t count as patterns.
The MA20 at 225.83 is supporting from below; the trend is not broken. But breakouts at this time are fake; small orders can push it up.
No trades in the vacuum; wait until 21:30 when the US market opens to discuss:
If after opening there is a volume-backed close above 228.56 → go long, stop loss at 225.5, target 236.9, risk-reward ratio 2.7.
If after opening there is a volume-backed close below 225.83 → go short, stop loss at 228.7, target 218.98, risk-reward ratio 2.6.
$MRNA
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk) The AI IPO race is becoming a test of capital discipline.
OpenAI is reportedly seeking about $30B at a potential valuation above $1.4T, according to Reuters. The push comes ahead of Anthropic’s expected mid-November IPO, but terms and listing dates are not final.
Both companies are competing for overlapping pools of capital, including long-only investors and sovereign wealth funds. Investor commitments are part of the race, not just valuations.
The infrastructure bill adds another layer:
· Anthropic is reportedly pursuing $60B in financing for Google TPU capacity
· Blackstone-managed funds could invest $9B in related debt at a yield above 10%, according to the Financial Times
· Anthropic is reportedly discussing another Nscale compute agreement worth about $45B
These are different categories: equity, debt and compute contracts. They are not one measure of current spending, and reported negotiations are not completed transactions.
Revenue needs the same discipline:
· OpenAI reportedly cited about $50B in annualized revenue
· Anthropic reportedly told investors that Q3 revenue reached $16.8B, up about 45% QoQ, with adjusted profitability
An annualized run rate is not full-year revenue. Quarterly revenue covers a different period. Partner accounting affects comparisons. Adjusted profitability does not establish GAAP net income or free cash flow.
That is the IPO question: can revenue growth support chips, data centers, power, leases and financing?
Watch growth quality, compute economics, cash flow and valuation. Can lower prices drive usage without weakening margins? Can revenue keep pace with capacity? What will filings reveal?
For crypto markets, the wider question is whether AI capital spending continues to support risk appetite, or whether financing costs begin to matter more.
What matters most to you: growth, compute costs, or cash generation?
#OpenAIAnthropicIPORace $OPENAI $ANTHROPIC #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins $BTC $ETH The price trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum are still being suppressed by capital flows. This rebound in Bitcoin cannot yet be directly considered a trend reversal.
On the macro side, recent expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes have decreased, providing some support for risk assets, but overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Focus on the flow of funds in spot ETFs. On October 19, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $138.5 million, indicating that institutional funds were still mainly withdrawing that day. Although the price rebounded, funds did not flow back in synchronously, so this trend requires caution. If Bitcoin cannot regain sustained support from spot buying, selling pressure may still occur during the rebound.
For Ethereum, on October 19, the spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $1.9 million, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of net outflows. Although the outflow scale that day was significantly smaller than Bitcoin's, Ethereum had a cumulative net outflow of about $378 million over the previous week, so capital pressure remains significant.
Personally, I think price movements alone are not useful; what matters is when capital truly flows back. Bitcoin needs to be observed for the strength of support after the rebound, while Ethereum needs to see if the continuous ETF outflow situation can improve. If prices rise, volume expands, and spot funds turn back to net inflows, the rebound will have more momentum. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ To pour some cold water first, when I see a large long position opened, I don't directly take it as a bullish signal. Core Trader 14 (0x24fb65…bed0f) opened a long $HYPE position with 10x leverage, with a nominal position of about $175,300. This indicates someone is willing to bet on the direction, but it doesn't mean the direction is already correct.
I'm not in a hurry to be bullish for two reasons. First, nominal position is not equal to principal; roughly calculated at 10x leverage, the initial margin corresponds to about $17,500, so you can't treat the full $175,300 as real confidence money. Second, leverage compresses the margin for error: assuming the margin remains unchanged, if the price moves about 5% against the position, the loss could consume about half of the initial margin; actual liquidation depends on margin mode and account equity. My guess is, if the price rise doesn't materialize and instead continues to fall, the most uncomfortable will be the leveraged longs lacking margin buffer, not the off-exchange spectators.
Of course, he could also be right; my bearish bias doesn't mean I have to oppose him. If the price can sustain above the reference price of $78.901 and recover after a pullback, I will reduce my bearish stance; this is my observation condition, not a market fact yet. Regarding this 10x long position, who is bullish and who is bearish? State your reasons and clarify under what circumstances you would admit being wrong.As the market is still assessing the adjustments to Russian energy sanctions, risks to Middle Eastern energy facilities, and the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path, this morning's $XAU briefly fell back to around $4,115. A friend asked me, shouldn't gold rise when geopolitical risks increase? The reasoning is simple: although gold is influenced by safe-haven demand, it is also affected by the dollar, real interest rates, and the opportunity cost of holding gold. If rising risks push up energy prices and the market simultaneously worries about inflation and sustained high interest rates, then even if safe-haven demand exists, gold may still be suppressed by interest rate factors. The key lies in which transmission path dominates.The short position that broke at 4139.9 this morning has already closed. The chart has changed now, so don't use the early session's judgment to open new positions.
The 09:00 candle is the most noteworthy: it dipped to 4124.3 with a volume of 5.29 million, which is 2.7 times the average of the previous twelve candles, and closed with a long lower shadow at 4139.1. At first glance, it looks like a stop-loss sweep reversal.
But at 10:00 and 11:00, it only recovered to 4153.2 and couldn't go higher. At 13:00, a bearish candle with a volume of 3.66 million and a -0.53% drop swallowed the entire three-hour rebound. The current price is 4132, just below the MA20 at 4149 by seventeen points.
The rebound being swallowed indicates that the long lower shadow in the early session was not a reversal but a shakeout to distribute. The low at 4124.3 needs to be tested again.
If the rebound between 4144 and 4148 fails and closes bearish with volume → go short, stop loss at 4156, first target 4124.3, extended target 4100, risk-reward ratio 2.2.
If it closes with volume above 4156 → the second bottom test is invalid, admit the mistake and exit, do not chase longs.
It's 2 PM in Beijing, US markets haven't opened yet; this session is a warm-up, not pre-market. Gold's real pricing happens during the US session.
$XAU
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)Crude oil can fall, and Bitcoin can passively rise to become a winning position, like a score of 3.0 type.
BTC stuck in the 80700-82500 consolidation and bottoming phase should be ending, with no one-sided trend, completely linked to the Nasdaq, storage chip stocks, and crude oil.
Two external signals:
1. Whether MU, SNDK, and SK Hynix can stop crashing
2. Whether crude oil can continue to fall, reducing inflation pressure
Recent core logic: crude oil suppresses Bitcoin and US stocks.
On the crude oil side, the previous geopolitical risk premium increase is retreating. Yesterday, oil prices fell to 96.8, Bitcoin rebounded to 83000, SNDK rebounded to 1400. Today, oil prices rebounded to 98.8, Bitcoin and SanDisk fell again. As long as oil prices repeatedly rebound, high interest rates can repeatedly suppress Bitcoin.
The current thinking remains unchanged.
Bitcoin at 81850 is not suitable for trading; be patient and wait.
Buy on a pullback around 80500-80300. When crude oil rises back near 101 and faces pressure to fall, Bitcoin will have bullish support around 80500.
Enter short near the 84000 rebound, roughly when crude oil pulls back to about 95.94, there will be a rebound.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Streaming main business user growth has hit a bottleneck, with the growth rate of existing subscriptions continuously slowing. The market's core narrative has shifted to the advertising subscription segment, with capital betting on advertising business as the second growth curve.
The market has priced in optimistic expectations in advance, continuously amplifying the incremental potential of the advertising business, driving up consensus bullish sentiment, and factoring the long-term monetization potential of advertising into current pricing. However, there are underlying fundamental concerns: rising user churn and declining viewing time create uncertainty about whether the advertising business can meet the market's high expectations.
The current point of contention is that the market has fully priced in the benefits of the advertising business. If the financial report data falls short of the heightened consensus expectations, the previously accumulated optimistic positions will quickly reverse. Betting Yes involves wagering on the realization of advertising monetization and margin recovery, testing whether the new business logic can withstand the pressure of slowing main business growth. Elon Musk's diversion tactics are the most impressive
A few days ago, that flying new car, a prototype, caused the stock price to surge then fall, trapping a bunch of people
This time let's talk about SpaceX
October 20 earnings report
28% unlocked the day after the earnings, 1.3 billion shares
Another 7% unlocked on October 24, 319 million shares
Final 17% on December 8
By the end of the year, a total of 2.75 billion shares unlocked
At 147.9, 1.3 billion shares equal $190 billion, $400 billion by year-end
The company has 100 billion cash on hand, won't sell
Those selling are early shareholders and employees, cost a few dollars
So all news before and after the earnings serve to support the stock price
On earnings day, Falcon 9 launch
Give each kid a share
RBC hinted there will be ambitious updates
This was rehearsed in Q2, revenue beat expectations by 12.7%, stock fell 8% that day
Because quarterly capital expenditure was 18.4 billion, 86% spent on AI
I don't look at earnings numbers
I watch who buys those 1.3 billion shares the day after earnings
135 is the issue price, if it falls below that, it means the story can't hold
Earnings are for retail investors, unlocking is for old shareholdersThe South Korean stock market crashed again
Less than an hour after opening, the KOSPI plunged over 2%, and the 10th circuit breaker hasn't even been fully digested.
Foreign investors sold a net 190 billion KRW on the main board in a single day, totaling 670 billion including KOSDAQ, withdrawing over $10 billion since October. This is not profit-taking; it's voting with their feet.
The root cause is structural: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for nearly half of the index's market cap, with $SKHYB dropping over 6% in a single day. Once the AI narrative weakens, the market is left with only two pillars. Leveraged ETFs exacerbate the situation, causing a stampede with every drop.
The exchange rate hit 1320, a two-year low. $SKHYB $BTC is at the critical 80,700 mark again, with ETFs running another 139 million
BTC 81,966 (-0.8%), $ETH 2,409 (-0.7%), total market cap 2.75T.
Conclusion first: The 83K rebound didn't hold, 4H volume is shrinking with a slow decline, heavy supply pressure above, making a break below 80,700 more likely; breaking below means two consecutive downward ranges, establishing a short-term bearish trend, but mid-term is just a correction, not a bear market.
If 80,700 breaks down with volume → first watch the dense zone at 79,800, deeper look at the 75K long-term structure; if 84,000 breaks back up with volume → bearish scenario temporarily invalid, then we talk about previous highs.
Shrinking volume doesn't mean it can't fall, it means no one is buying; the supply wall remains intact, the rebound only hands the knife to the bears.
At this 80,700 hurdle, brothers, are you betting on holding or breaking through?
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ 10.20 Midday Brief｜Bank of Japan keeps “December rate hike” in the drawer
News: Four insiders leak that the Bank of Japan will most likely hold steady at the 10/30 meeting (just raised rates last month), but the quarterly report will reiterate the “inflation risk”; oil prices are stickier than expected, so next fiscal year's inflation outlook will be revised upward. The yen needs to crash again to trigger emergency wording; if it doesn't crash, the door remains open for a rate hike in December.
In plain language:
It’s not that “Japan is going hawkish,” but rather “not hawkish for now, but propping up the hawkish ladder against the wall.”
Consumer prices are sticking around longer than expected, but underlying inflation hasn’t changed — translated: prices are noisy, but the base isn’t heating up.
What this means for the market:
• Weak yen → carry trade funds still willing to hold risk assets, $BTC /$ETH won’t lack “borrowed liquidity”
• Sharp yen crash → import costs push inflation → BOJ wording turns hawkish → risk assets will shake firstStaring at these few K-lines of ZEC, I really find it quite absurd.
A bunch of people are staring at the previous low of 1048, clamoring to bottom-fish,
but no one dares to look up at the dense, suffocating wall of sell orders above.
Don't bother with whatever new proposal the Ethereum forum throws out again; that stuff is just a script written for you to read.
Look at the recent market—every time it pulls up a bit, it immediately shrinks back like it got shocked, with the moving averages pressing down hard.
Is this a reversal?
This is the main force using news to pump the price up and unload, tricking you bunch of "it's bottomed out" retail investors, then slowly slaughtering you.
Many people come to ask me, is it too late to short now?
Look at the current data: 75% of retail traders are shorting.
Do you think the shorts are too crowded and fear a short squeeze by the big players?
Naive!
The big players are putting so much effort into pumping this $100 just to wash out you high-leverage retail shorts first, then dump the chips to the foolish longs.
After grinding both sides down until they have no fight left, the real crash will begin.
That old short I hold at 1593 is lying there with 1400% profit, forced liquidation way up at 2283, I don't even bother to look.
But today, the 1145 level is an excellent shorting point giving you free money.
This fake support propped up by news will most likely reveal its true nature tonight.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？ According to community disclosures about $CORE: the project team may have converted profits into hard assets like BTC instead of using them to support the coin price. Even when the overall crypto market warms up, CORE shows extreme weakness, with trading volume never effectively increasing, described as a "slow knife-cutting style decline." The number of exchanges supporting CORE has plummeted from the initial 34 to only 13, with platforms like KuCoin having long delisted it, and CoinEx also initiating delisting procedures. Currently, liquidity is exhausted, and even small sell orders can trigger severe volatility. Under the name of "decentralization," the project team is actually "shifting responsibility": the official nodes announced in October 2026 the "gradual handover of block production roles," widely suspected to be a mass withdrawal due to unprofitability, offloading server costs onto independent validators, while governance rights remain in their hands.The Market Is Baiting Retail Traders Again 👀
SK Hynix +4.6%, Micron nearly +3%, Amazon +5%, and AI chip stocks are bouncing back. Suddenly, everyone is calling it the bottom.
But I haven't touched my crypto or storage shorts.
Here's what caught my attention: while the underlying stocks rallied, storage perpetual contracts started pulling back from their intraday highs. My short position is recovering instead of bleeding.
That divergence matters. The stock rebound may be #DailyOrbit Yesterday, US tech stocks finally saw a rebound, with the Nasdaq rising 1.11%. The semiconductor index ended an eight-day losing streak, and SanDisk $SNDK briefly reached $1409 before pulling back, indicating that market sentiment remains unstable.
Personally, I believe this rebound is more of a technical correction after continuous declines and cannot yet be considered the start of a new upward trend. Tech stocks had fallen sharply earlier, and some funds entered to buy the dip after prices dropped, but during the rebound, some funds chose to take profits. If buying momentum cannot keep up, stock prices naturally tend to retreat after surging.
Currently, the global tech sector faces three main pressures: first, increasing investment in AI infrastructure has led the market to focus on how much actual return these investments can generate; second, inflation and interest rate expectations continue to affect tech stock valuations; third, advances in China's memory chip technology have raised market concerns about future competition and supply-demand dynamics.
Looking at SanDisk, the development of AI servers and data centers still supports storage demand. After significant volatility earlier, the market's expectations for performance and valuation have become increasingly demanding.
Next, attention should be paid to whether SanDisk can stabilize after the rebound and whether the US semiconductor sector can form a sustained linked rally. If only individual stocks rebound while other memory stocks continue to weaken, the probability of a volatile market remains high.
For now, observe the quality of the rebound and do not rush to treat a single rise as a reversal. More importantly, whether capital can continue to flow back and whether subsequent earnings can meet market expectations. #芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
📈 Let's predict Netflix's Q3 earnings in advance: I'm leaning bullish this time.
First, let's talk about the main concerns in the market right now.
In Q2, Netflix's revenue was $12.56 billion, up 13% year-over-year, with an EPS of $0.80, but the Q3 revenue guidance was only $12.86 billion, which was below market expectations at the time, causing the stock price to come under pressure.�
Reuters
So the core concern in the market about Netflix is quite clear:
Is growth starting to slow down?
But I think this might actually be the biggest earnings surprise this time.
Currently, Wall Street expects Q3 revenue to be about $12.87 billion, with an EPS around $0.82.
The expectations don't seem very high.
And Netflix now has several important growth points:
Advertising business.
Netflix's advertising revenue target this year is about $3 billion, and US ad pre-sale commitments have nearly doubled.
This means the advertising business is no longer just "telling a story," but is gradually becoming a real second growth curve.�
Zacks
Another point I am paying attention to:
Profit margin.
The company’s own Q3 operating margin target is 33.2%, significantly higher than 28.2% in the same period last year.
So I think this earnings report shouldn't be judged by revenue alone.
If revenue slightly beats expectations and profit margin continues to rise, the possibility of a significant EPS beat is not low.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Divergence Between Price and Capital: Understanding the Market Code Behind the "Unstoppable Drop"
BTC's rebound always carries a unique "wearing" characteristic. The most frustrating part is that while the price on the candlestick chart is clearly recovering, bad news on the capital side follows closely.
Seeing continuous outflows from spot ETFs, many people's first reaction is often panic, concluding that the "rebound can't hold." But I pay more attention to another detail: after the selling pressure surges, does the price continue to fall?
Even with capital outflows, whether the selling pressure directly breaks through the buy orders or is steadily absorbed by the market makes a world of difference. If negative news keeps coming but the price pullback becomes shallower, it at least indicates that someone is willing to actively buy at this level. Conversely, if the rise is laborious and any selling pressure wipes out the gains, that kind of rebound is really hard to trust.
Of course, we must also stay clear-headed: "unstoppable drop" might just mean sellers are taking a temporary breather, not that the bulls have completely taken control. Until there is a clear and sustained inflow signal on the capital side, this kind of "resistance-style" rebound still requires us to remain patient and vigilant. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ This information is excellent, but you shouldn't get carried away; it's essential to do your own analysis to ensure the possibility. Without further ado, after doing my research, I assign a 60% probability today that $BTC will rebound to $82k-$83k.
Probability of consolidating between $82k-$88k: 45%
$94k needs to break the $90k call wall. With this week's max pain at $83k, they will first stop it at $83k-$85k.
- Its path $82k confirmation → $82k-$88k accumulation → breakout to $94k is the correct one, but not immediateNetflix advertising faces the toughest challenge in managing audience patience.
Shareholders naturally want more ad revenue. For the same batch of content, besides subscription fees, gaining advertising budgets makes this business indeed attractive. But when users open Netflix, they primarily want to watch something; no one is happy just because the platform sold a few more ad slots.
What concerns me more is how much of the ad business growth comes from improved ad performance versus how much comes from showing more ads.
If advertisers find customer acquisition more cost-effective and are willing to keep increasing their budgets, that kind of growth is promising. But if it mainly relies on increasing ad density, the short-term numbers might look good, while the cost to user experience may only show up later.
Especially users attracted by cheaper plans are already price-sensitive. With more and more ads, they may not be willing to upgrade to more expensive plans and might even reduce usage.
So I won’t just focus on how much ad revenue has grown year-over-year; I also want to see if advertisers have returned to invest and whether users are willing to stay. The first purchase might be a trial, but repeated purchases are more convincing.
I am optimistic about Netflix’s opportunity to connect content and advertising, but I hope it exercises restraint. After spending so much money producing content and finally retaining viewers, it’s really not worth driving them away just to squeeze a bit more ad revenue.
If this quarter’s revenue growth can be maintained alongside the viewing experience, I will be more willing to give it patience.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Looking at SpaceX's financial report, what I most want to translate is the billing for Starlink customers.
How many new users have been added is certainly important, but how much each user is willing to pay and how much it costs to serve these users ultimately determines what the company can retain after scaling up.
If user growth is rapid but average revenue keeps declining, the reason needs to be clearly understood. It could be that low-priced plans have opened new markets, or that the customer structure has changed. The former has the potential to bring bigger long-term business, but how long the investment takes to pay off cannot be omitted.
Household users and aviation or maritime customers have different service demands. Even with the same number of users, revenue and service costs may not be the same. Judging growth quality solely by a total subscriber number can be too crude.
I like SpaceX's ability to accomplish complex engineering and understand why everyone is willing to pay for its future. But after going public, shareholders need to know exactly how technological advantages translate into sustained revenue.
This time, I will look at user growth, revenue per user, and business profit together. If the scale increases and the economic return per customer also improves, that growth will be more convincing to me.
Rocket launches are indeed exciting. But after watching the video and then opening the financial report, I still want to find a simple answer: can those customers who are already using the service make this business increasingly profitable.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 The most frustrating part of BTC's rebound is that the price has already risen, but the negative news on the funding side hasn't disappeared.
Seeing the continuous outflow of ETFs, it's easy to conclude that "the rebound can't hold." But I'm more concerned about another detail: after the sell-off, does the price continue to fall?
Even with the same capital outflow, breaking through the buy orders versus being caught by the market means very different things. If the negative news keeps coming but the pullback becomes shallower, it at least shows someone is willing to buy at this level. Conversely, if the rise is laborious and any selling pressure wipes out the gains, that kind of rebound is hard to trust.
Of course, the inability to fall further might just mean sellers are taking a break and can't be directly taken as a bottom.
I have expectations for this round of recovery, but I don't want to explain all issues with just one bullish candle for now. Especially the first rebound after a drop is the most anxiety-inducing: those out of the market fear missing out, while holders are eager to break even, and even a slight fluctuation can sway emotions.
If a pullback occurs next, I actually think it will be more valuable to observe. Whether buyers are willing to step in again says more than how many people are shouting "bullish" during the rise.
We need to watch ETF data and also how the price reacts to selling pressure. The conditions that would raise my expectations now are very specific: stability during the pullback, followed by new buying interest. Just relying on everyone finally breathing a sigh of relief won't take the market far.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ I don't currently consider this short position as a trend-following trade—the bearish direction is clear, but the trend evidence is insufficient. Core Trader 19 has newly opened a $AMZN short position with 19x leverage, nominal value about $191,500; this only indicates a bet on a decline, not proof that the market is already moving down.
I have three principles for trading trends. First, look at the price movement before considering what others are betting on. The direction of a single address does not equal market sentiment, and the data lacks a price series. Without seeing a sustained downward structure, I'd rather have one less judgment and not use a large order to confirm the trend for myself.
Second, direction and sentiment must correspond. If the price weakens and sentiment also turns weak, then this short position has a basis for being trend-following; if the price remains strong, then it is a counter-trend bet on a turning point. This is my conditional reasoning, not the currently known market situation. The biggest risk in counter-trend trading is that the turning point is delayed.
Third, leverage cannot replace stop-loss. At 19x leverage, a reverse move of about 5.3% is enough to consume an amount equivalent to the initial margin; actual forced liquidation is also affected by margin mode and other factors. Even if the direction is ultimately correct, the position may not withstand the volatility initially.
The trend is the best friend. My attitude remains to wait for structural confirmation and not chase direction based on a single short position. How do you all currently judge whether such short positions are trend-following—using moving averages, previous highs and lows, or volume-price coordination? Which specific timeframe do you look at?Seventeen million five hundred thousand cash registers igniting simultaneously — the question now isn't whether the fire is strong enough, but whether anyone is willing to take the first ladle of this rich broth.
The collaboration between Visa and Mesh, frankly, is like hiring a head waiter for crypto wallets. Your assets lie in cold storage, and the moment a customer swipes their card, Mesh is responsible for which pot to ladle from, how to exchange, and how many ladles to serve. On the merchant's side, there's no need to change the menu; they keep using the old cash register, only smelling the aroma without seeing the kitchen knives. This is the smartest move: change the recipe without changing the utensils, zero learning curve in the front of house, so turnover can speed up. The neighboring stove hasn't gone out either; Mastercard is pulling payment service providers to offer a dual combo of fiat and stablecoins, also serving a taste spoon of risk detection; on the e-commerce side, stablecoin payments have already been placed at the takeout window. Three kitchens starting simultaneously shows this isn't a chef's whim, but the entire supply chain changing the base broth.
But those in charge of the ladle understand: the fire being ready doesn't mean customers will order. No matter how wide the channels are laid, it's just polishing the stove; what truly determines turnover rate is whether customers are willing to return repeatedly for this flavor. Between coverage and real consumption demand lies the hardest simmering time — the broth needs to thicken, relying on real transaction volume to slowly reduce, it can't be achieved by sprinkling broth essence at press conferences.
What's even more critical is the ratio. Mainstream assets are the main dish, stablecoin payments are the brightening seasoning, and leveraged contracts are the extra spicy chili — right now, the market smells the aroma of landing and recklessly throws chili into the pot; the stomach isn't warmed yet but is already sweating from the spice. Those linked tokens bearing new technology labels are served on one end, but diners only focus on the color, no one reaches out to test the oil temperature.
The real kitchen judgment is only one: channel expansion means preparation is complete, not that the dish is served. No matter how long the prep table is or how fast the knife skills are, as long as customers' chopsticks haven't reached over, this pot of broth remains on the stove, not earning a single cent. For stablecoins to become real cash flow, they must first pass the taste test — consumers must feel it's more convenient than swiping a card, not more mysterious.
And while everyone in the room is busy adding chili to the pot, no one asks: who exactly is tending the base of this pot? #visameshstablecoinpay Liquidations of nearly 40 million in 12 hours: BTC long liquidation stampede, ETH hides a rebound, SOL just follows the drop
In this deleveraging wave, the liquidation structures of the three coins are quite distinct.
BTC: Main battlefield of long liquidation
Long positions dominate absolutely, short positions are very low. This indicates BTC is the core of this round of liquidation, with long leverage highly crowded, making it easy for cascading forced liquidations when the price falls.
ETH: Stronger tug-of-war between longs and shorts
Second largest liquidation scale, but the proportion of shorts liquidated is significantly higher, indicating a relatively strong rebound midway, washing out some shorts.
SOL: Follow-up style liquidation
Smallest liquidation scale, longs still dominant, but shorts also participate to some extent. Volatility is relatively mild, leverage crowding is low, mostly passive liquidation following the overall market.
Who is more vulnerable next?
- BTC: Long liquidations are most concentrated; if it weakens again, it’s prone to continued long liquidation cascades.
- ETH: Shorts also liquidated; rebounds are more likely to trigger a rebound.
- SOL: Small scale, strong follow-up nature; low probability of triggering chain liquidations alone in the short term.
Leverage liquidation only indicates positions being cleaned out, not that the bottom has been reached. The key is whether BTC can hold support steadily and whether ETH’s rebound can drive sentiment recovery.