#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
SpaceX will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes on October 20. I estimate revenue between 10.7 billion and 12.7 billion, below the consensus of 12.9 billion.
The basis is a reverse calculation.
12.9 billion minus Starlink's 4.7 billion and Space's 1.2 billion means AI must reach 7 billion.
The only verifiable AI figure is Anthropic, whose prospectus states 1.25 billion per month, making 3.75 billion for the first full priced quarter in Q3. Adding Grok and X subscriptions at 1 billion totals 4.75 billion.
The remaining 2.2 billion gap must come from other cloud customers, but total cloud revenue was only 1.6 billion in Q2, so doubling in one quarter is very difficult.
The CFO also mentioned that the newly signed 6.7 billion contract only started ramping up in October, so Q3 revenue won't reflect it.
The real thing to watch is whether AI can surpass Starlink for the first time.
There was a 1.7 billion gap in Q2, but Q3 may very well see AI overtake.
At that moment, SpaceX's valuation logic will change.
SpaceX（SPCX）2026 年第三季度 GAAP 每股收益会高于 0.17 美元吗？
