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Bitcoin stands above 74,000, Ethereum breaks through 2,300, SOL approaches 90, $3.3 billion vaporized in 24 hours, shorts account for 3.07 billion — I stared at the liquidation data and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: you think this is the start of a bull market, but actually this is the most dangerous position in the gunner's game — everyone is aiming at the same target, and you are about to step onto it. 📊 First, look at the table: who is playing the cards, who is getting hit Bitcoin: retail investors are rushing in, whales are watching. Bitcoin hit a high of $75,785 today, up more than 20% this week. But what’s really worth watching is the liquidation data: $3.3 billion liquidated in 24 hours, shorts account for 3.07 billion, nearly 200,000 people were taken out in one wave. This is not bulls buying, it’s shorts dying. More importantly, the leverage structure — the retail long-to-short ratio soared to 2.22, while top traders (whales) have a long-to-short ratio of only 1.47. Retail investors are crazily adding leverage to go long, whales are watching coldly. The funding rate has risen to the highest in 20 months — the cost of holding long positions is exponentially increasing, while the price is still being pushed up by short liquidations. Ethereum: the biggest beneficiary of the short squeeze. ETH hit a high of $2,355, up more than 12% in 24 hours. But this is a typical "short squeeze" — the price pushed up by crushed shorts, not real buying support. Solana: the only public chain that is rising, but don’t get too happy yet. SOL broke through $90, up more than 19% this week. SOL ETF inflows last week were $10 million, the strongest since May. Gold at $4500, institutions are starting to get scared, how many people still dare to chase? Spot gold has climbed back above $4500, SPDR Gold ETF holdings are also increasing, and domestic gold-themed fund sizes continue to expand. But interestingly, institutions have started to argue. UBS even sees $5000 in the first half of 2027, but Wells Fargo has begun to lower its target price. This indicates that no one dares to easily deny the long-term logic of gold, but short-term valuations are already showing divergence. A weaker dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and concerns about the fiscal deficit are still supporting gold. But the problem is, gold has already risen so much. If U.S. Treasury yields rise again later, or market risk appetite continues to improve, funds chasing at high levels might instead become liquidity for profit-taking. So when looking at gold now, we must clearly see whether funds are continuing to chase higher or starting to rise while withdrawing? Because the real danger is never an asset just rising high. It’s when everyone thinks: "It’s already risen so much, it must continue to rise." Gold now may be entering a stage that requires more caution than just being "bullish." #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 @OKX星球 @OKX中文 $XAU $XAUT $BTC has already climbed back to around $75K, still with significant room to reach the all-time high of $126K; $SOL has also reached about $89, compared to the previous high of around $293. The recent rise is indeed supported by fundamental catalysts: the U.S. Treasury increasing long-term bond repurchases, improved regulatory expectations, and a rebound in market risk appetite are all providing support to crypto assets. However, I am not in a hurry to define this as a "new super bull market" yet. Price breakout ≠ confirmed bull market. What I want to see more is: → BTC stabilizing at $73K–$75K → ETH continuing to rise, not just BTC alone → SOL breaking through $90 and holding steady → Continuous inflow of ETF and spot funds → Genuine expansion in altcoin trading volume So my thinking is simple: you can be bullish, but don’t lose discipline just because the market suddenly turns green. A true bull market doesn’t need to be shouted out emotionally; the trend will prove itself.📈Currently, $QQQ is in a dense turnover range between $710 and $717, with the core conflict focused on the battle between the high valuation of tech stocks and the strong resistance zone from $730 to $735. From the price structure perspective, the index has formed a short-term bull-bear dividing line between $708 and $715. The $730 to $735 range above is a dense lock-up zone formed by previous highs, requiring a significant increase in volume to absorb selling pressure. The main driving factors dominating the market are, first, the continuous suppression of tech stock valuations by the high interest rate environment, and second, capital divergence triggered by tech stock earnings reports. Without new capital following in during high-level oscillations, bullish momentum will face attenuation. The trigger condition for the upward scenario is the index stabilizing above $715 with normal volume and breaking through the $730 to $735 resistance zone with volume. If the upward test lacks volume support, this breakout scenario will likely fail. The trigger condition for the downward scenario is the price breaking below the core defense line between $708 and $715. Once confirmed lost, the price will seek a bottom downward, retesting the $685 to $700 range, which coincides with the 52-week relative low and a key round number level. The critical failure point of the overall structure is set at $700. If this defense line breaks due to macro tightening, it means the mid-term bullish bottoming structure is completely destroyed. The most important observation variables in the next 7 days are the turnover efficiency in the $710 to $717 range, as well as the volume situation when testing the $730 resistance and breaking below the $708 dividing line. #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？$PUMP has been continuously rising recently. This inevitably reminds me of the previous $WLD, which was in a similar situation at that time. Let's compare the trends of these two coins. We can see that the overall trends of these two coins are relatively similar. However, $PUMP is clearly rising more steadily. If we look at $WLD's situation, $PUMP should currently be at a high point. At this position, I am considering shorting it. —————————————————— Let's also look at its contract data. From the chart, we can see that its current long-short contract ratio is not very low, and the contract open interest is not very high either. This somewhat dispels my idea of shorting because it indicates that the market sentiment is not very bearish at the moment. —————————————————— Personally, I really want to find an opportunity to short it. Because this coin has risen a lot, the profit from shorting would be relatively large. But after analyzing the data, I just don't feel there is a chance to short. Its rise is just too stable. This kind of stability somewhat intimidates me. —————————————————— Currently, I want to watch at this position because the coin's issuance price is $0.004. That means a lot of people are trapped at the $0.004 level. If it can rise to $0.0045, I will most likely open a short position. Because, personally, I believe that at the $0.0045 level isFrom 8.19 to 8.20, the crypto derivatives market experienced the strongest short squeeze since November 2021, with over $3 billion liquidated across the entire market. This surge was not driven by spot institutions aggressively buying, but by macro news ignition plus six weeks of accumulated short positions being passively liquidated in a chain reaction. 📊 Core liquidation data Total liquidations > $3 billion - Short liquidations: $2.77 billion (92%) - Long liquidations: $264 million - BTC short liquidations: $1.37 billion - ETH short liquidations: $1.01 billion - Highest single-hour short liquidation: $1.29 billion Exchange distribution: Binance $518 million, Hyperliquid $513 million, Bybit $303 million, with the remainder on OKX, dYdX, etc. Altcoins liquidated simultaneously: SOL shorts $187 million, XRP $142 million, DOGE $89 million. Market performance: BTC quickly surged from 64,100 to break through 72,000; ETH's 24h maximum gain was 18%, with the entire short squeeze cycle lasting about 18 hours. 🧨 Complete event chain 1️⃣ Trigger: US Treasury raised the long-term bond repo limit to $4 billion (effective 9.9–11.4) Note: This is not QE or rate cuts, but debt liquidity management to suppress long bond yields, igniting risk asset sentiment. One hour after the news, BTC rose from 64,100 to 66,800. 2️⃣ Price rise → short margin emergency, triggering the first round of forced liquidations Exchanges$BTC has risen nearly 18% in five days: This time, spot and futures funds have finally returned simultaneously #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ BTC has already rebounded continuously from a low point in this round, with a cumulative increase of nearly 18% over the past five trading days, once breaking through $70,000 and hitting an approximately 11-week high. An even more important new signal is that CryptoQuant data shows that BTC spot and perpetual futures demand have both turned positive at the same time, marking the first occurrence of this combination since the last bull market in October 2025. This is somewhat different from a simple Short Squeeze. The rise in the past few days can be explained by short covering, but if spot demand also continues to turn positive, the market structure starts to become healthier. At the same time, Crypto US stocks have also begun to follow the rise: Coinbase previously rose about 7.6%, and XRP once surged 18.8% in a single day.CORE DAO Series ⑤｜If you want to observe CORE long-term, I only focus on these 8 data points After the previous analyses, I believe that judging whether Core has truly entered a bull market main rally should not be based solely on price. I will establish a long-term data panel. 1｜BTC Staking ⸻ 2｜lstBTC Supply ⸻ 3｜BTCFi TVL ⸻ 4｜Lending Collateral ⸻ 5｜Dual Staking Ratio ⸻ 6｜Protocol Revenue ⸻ 7｜CORE Buyback ⸻ 8｜CORE Circulating Supply Finally, also look at: New supply vs. buyback/burn/lock-up If the demand growth rate exceeds the effective circulating supply growth, it is easier to generate real price elasticity. So my biggest judgment about Core's future is not: "How much can CORE rise?" but: Can Core convert BTC's growth into its own revenue; then convert that revenue into CORE demand. If this chain runs through: BTC ↓ BTC Staking ↓ lstBTC ↓ BTCFi ↓ Revenue ↓ CORE Buyback ↓ CORE Demand Then Core completes a very important identity transformation: from BTC narrative L1 to BTC financial infrastructure#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Pop Mart's half-year report is out, marking the end of last year's explosive growth and entering a growth transition period. Revenue continues to grow, but net profit growth has clearly lagged, overseas business is cooling off, and growth pressure is gradually emerging. The biggest change comes from the IP structure. Previously highly dependent on the single core LABUBU, its revenue share has significantly declined; Star People has emerged unexpectedly, with half-year revenue soaring, quickly becoming the second largest IP. Meanwhile, CRYBABY, DIMOO, and others have formed a second tier, with a multi-IP matrix initially taking shape. Bullish logic: breaking free from reliance on a single hit product reduces the risk of a single IP's lifecycle, the domestic market base remains solid, and a 2-5 billion yuan buyback plan has been launched to stabilize market confidence. If the IP tiers continue to produce new products, the growth ceiling is expected to further open up. Risks are also prominent. Hit IPs have popularity cycles; whether Star People can replicate LABUBU's long lifespan and whether the overseas market can reverse its downturn remain huge uncertainties. The collectible toy industry experiences significant consumer sentiment fluctuations, and new hit products are highly contingent. Multi-IP succession is not a guaranteed outcome. Personal view: moving from a single core to multiple IPs is the right direction, but forming a matrix does not mean immediate performance realization. During the growth transition phase, do not benchmark the future against past high growth rates. Two key observation points going forward: the new IP lifecycle continuation ability and the progress of overseas business recovery. Mapping to the crypto market is only for consumer sector sentiment reference and does not directly affect the market. 1. Compliant institutional funds (ETF channels, external increment window) On the previous trading day, BTC spot ETFs saw a phased large net inflow of $472 million, with a cumulative inflow of $797 million over seven days, the strongest single-day inflow in the past two weeks; however, after the price surged above 74,700, short-term take-profit orders increased rapidly during the session, and large active orders dropped significantly, so the strong net inflow trend did not continue. Currently, the total AUM of BTC spot ETFs has reached $81.26 billion, accounting for 6.17% of Bitcoin's circulating market capitalization; Funds continue to flow out of Grayscale's GBTC to BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC, and this long-term flow trend remains unchanged. ETH spot ETFs had seen positive inflows for several consecutive days, with a single-day net inflow of $178 million the previous day and a cumulative inflow of $300 million over seven days. This round of ETH gains showed stronger elasticity than BTC, but ETF inflows lagged behind the price increase. After the surge, there was a brief net outflow during trading, with institutions increasing willingness to cash at high levels. Compliant funds only moderately positioned funds without aggressively chasing the rally. Overall, institutions have been entering the market intermittently and have not yet formed a continuous and continuous flow. 2. On-chain whale funds (medium- to long-term chip dimension) Long-term BTC whales continue to withdraw BTC from exchanges to self-custody wallets and lock it, with underlying tokens steadily accumulating; Short-term trading whales recharged at high levels in batches to take profits and adjust positions, without collectively chasing the rally. The total long-term ETH staking volume remains at 4.917 million, with a stable staking rateBCH is a typical example of a late surge in established payment coins. After BTC strengthens, the market tends to re-explore assets that have a high narrative correlation with Bitcoin and mature circulation, and BCH often attracts short-term capital attention as a result. The characteristic of this kind of market is a quick start and quick divergence. Next, the focus is on whether the high-level turnover is healthy; if the trading volume continues to expand, the continuity of the trend will have a stronger foundation. $BCH Thanks to Ethereum (second round), you gave me an extremely vivid market lesson. I keep saying every day and advising others: always maintain respect for the market, always guard against extreme conditions, and be very cautious when adding positions. But as soon as I lost money, I got carried away, became subjective and underestimated the situation, completely forgetting that Ethereum has never been a "mainstream coin"; it is basically the big brother of altcoins... I hate myself for not achieving "unity of knowledge and action." I was wrong, as dumb as a pig, making the most basic mistake: I opened both isolated margin and cross margin short positions at the same time. Even though the price just surged to a high of 2133 at 23:27, I stubbornly held on and then added 22+29=51 points worth of additional orders. The reason was that since it fell back from 2133, that indicated strong resistance there, so it definitely wouldn't go higher. Dozens of additional orders were all placed at low levels; I remember the highest single order was only at 2222, 120 points below the new high of 2342, averaging about 160 to 180 points below 2342. Sigh, all were swept away, leaving me wanting to cry but with no tears! Huge losses! After reviewing, here are the conclusions: First, my mindset was too arrogant and naive—I thought Ethereum reaching 2133 was seriously overbought, with the highest daily increase at 12%, so I expected at least some pullback, believing this rapid sharp rise was just a temporary spike to shake out weak hands, thinking this kind of rise was unreliable, unstable, and unsustainable. Second, the specific operational mistake was: to avoid showing too ugly a floating loss on the account, I added positions too quickly and too densely, with only a 10-point interval, not spacing them out at all. The correct approach should have been to space them 80 to 100 points apart and add in batches, rather thanCORE DAO Series ④｜If the BTC bull market truly starts, what will drive CORE's rise? This is the most important question in my opinion. Because: BTC rising ≠ CORE necessarily rising. What CORE really needs is: BTC rising → BTC holders seeking yield → BTC entering Core → BTCFi growth → Protocol revenue growth → Demand for CORE generated So the bull market logic for Core is essentially a "second-order Beta." First layer: BTC rising. Second layer: BTC rising drives BTCFi. Third layer: BTCFi drives Core. Fourth layer: Core's revenue ultimately feeds back to CORE.#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 This ETH surge is not driven by fundamentals but is a chain reaction of "shorts conceding defeat." Of the 20% increase, half was forced buybacks from liquidations, not new capital chasing. On August 20, ETH soared to $2302, up 20.44% in 24 hours, breaking above $2000 for the first time in over two months. CoinGlass data shows that during this period, ETH short liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion, with 92% being short positions. The whale "pension-usdt.eth" suffered a single loss of $108 million. The entire short squeeze scale is the second largest in history, only behind October 2025. The Treasury raised the long bond buyback cap from $2 billion to $4 billion, with the 30-year yield falling from 5.34%; the SEC released the Regulation Crypto draft to reduce regulatory uncertainty; the White House crypto summit called for passing the CLARITY Act. These three positive factors stacked at the shorts' most vulnerable moment. 2300 is a critical watershed. If it holds, the next target is 2400-2450; if it doesn't, a pullback to 2230-2250 is expected. However, RSI is already overbought, funding rates are high, and chasing carries significant risk. This is not a confirmed trend reversal but a violent liquidation. The real direction will be clearer after Jackson Hole.1. BTC Spot ETF Dimension Overall Capital Overview: In the previous trading day, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a large-scale net inflow of $472 million, with a cumulative net inflow of $797 million over seven days, the strongest single-day inflow in the past two weeks. After the price surged above 74,700 during the day, short-term profit-taking orders increased rapidly, with signs of inter-session capital outflows. Large active orders dropped sharply, and the previous high-intensity net inflow was not continued. Currently, the total US BTC spot ETF AUM stands at $81.26 billion, with ETF holdings in Bitcoin accounting for 6.17% of the circulating market capitalization. Breakdown of leading single products: BlackRock IBIT remains the core capital carrier, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $60.8 billion, accounting for 72% of total BTC spot ETF capital increments; Fidelity FBTC was the second main inflow; Grayscale's GBTC remains in a long-term net outflow channel, with slight intraday outflows. Old funds continue to migrate from Grayscale to new ETFs like IBIT and FBTC, and this trend of capital migration has remained unchanged for a long time. Market fund characteristics: Between 73,500 and 75,000, large limit buy orders in the ETF secondary market have noticeably decreased, mostly from scattered retail investors. Short-term profit-taking selling pressure continues to increase. Institutions have not started buying at this high. The main force behind this rally is still short filling, and ETF incremental funds have not kept pace with the price rise. 2. ETH Spot ETF Dimension Overall Capital Overview: The previous day, the US ETH spot ETF was net for the dayThe most frustrating point of the July FOMC minutes is not the 9 to 3 split but that the market discovered there is no clear answer within the Fed On the surface, interest rates remain unchanged, but several officials still worry about inflation, and three members even support a rate hike. Energy, tariffs, AI capital expenditure, and long-term bond yields are all adding confusion to inflation and financial conditions. Investors want to hear a clear dovish or hawkish statement, but the minutes instead reveal a lot of disagreement I think this is the most troublesome part right now If data weakens, the market wants to bet on easing; if inflation sticks, the Fed cannot easily concede. The new chair communicates less, so the minutes become the only material for everyone to decode like a puzzle. Policy uncertainty itself will also become part of asset prices This round, both BTC and gold are rising, which in a way is the market voting People don’t necessarily believe in rate cuts but increasingly don’t believe policy can end smoothly #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 The Bhutan government's recent move, frankly speaking, is treating Bitcoin as cash. Yesterday, they transferred 490 BTC (about 32.7 million USD) in one go to a new wallet, with the largest single transfer being 485 BTC. It sounds impressive, but this has actually been their routine operation for over a year — selling off steadily from a peak of 13,000 BTC in 2024 down to just over 3,000 BTC now, a 70% decrease. Interestingly, the official stance is "no coins sold," but the on-chain data clearly records every transaction, with funds continuously flowing out. This "data contradicting the official statement" is the most noteworthy aspect of this news. The market impact is actually limited; 30+ million USD is just a drop in the bucket compared to Bitcoin's daily trading volume. But the sentiment signal is more important than the capital flow — after all, the phrase "a sovereign nation is continuously selling" is inherently sensitive in the crypto community. And at this pace, the remaining holdings will be sold off in a few months. In short, Bhutan is treating Bitcoin as a liquid fiscal tool rather than an appreciating asset. The trend is clear; don't overreact to single transfers, just look at the bigger picture. $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ TRX's strength is clearly weaker than BTC and ETH, more like a steady follow-up rise rather than an emotional surge. TRON's core support still lies in stablecoin transfers, on-chain activity, and fee consumption. During market rallies, its elasticity is usually not the highest, but its defensive characteristics are relatively more prominent. Going forward, it depends on whether funds flow back from high-volatility assets to public chains with clearer cash flow and usage scenarios. $TRX $BTC crypto is skyrocketing, while storage stocks have just undergone a severe valuation crash. Both $MU Micron and SK Hynix have experienced significant pullbacks, but the signals coming from the industry side tell a completely different story. Micron recently announced it will invest $10 billion over the next decade in Boise, Idaho, to build Micron Research Labs, focusing on next-generation storage technology, advanced Memory and Compute architectures, advanced packaging, and future semiconductor manufacturing. What I think is most worth noting about this investment is not the "$10 billion" itself, but that Micron is betting on a trend: the next bottleneck for AI might be shifting from simply lacking GPUs to a combined shortage of computing power, memory, and data transfer. In the past two years, when people talked about AI hardware, the first reaction was almost always NVIDIA. But as models grow larger and inference calls increase, no matter how fast GPUs compute, if data can't be delivered in time, the expensive computing power will just sit idle. This is why HBM is becoming increasingly important. This year, major tech companies are expected to invest at least $630 billion in building AI infrastructure, and Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung have all stated that supply remains tight in the face of rapidly growing demand. So I won’t conclude that the AI storage cycle is over just because storage stocks have dropped sharply in the short term. GPUs determine how fast AI can compute, while Memory determines whether that computing power can actually be fully utilized. $HYPE is the native token of the Hyperliquid L1 blockchain. Hyperliquid primarily focuses on high-performance on-chain order book (CLOB) perpetual contract trading, while also supporting spot trading, HIP-3 RWA/stocks/commodities/Pre-IPO markets, and HyperEVM. It holds a dominant position in the decentralized perpetual contract sector. Executive Summary HYPE's current price is approximately $74.37, with a 24-hour increase of about 6.6-7.3%, a market cap of around $16.5 billion (ranking 9th-10th), circulating supply of about 222.4 million tokens (around 23% of total supply), and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $74.3 billion. It has only dropped about 3% from its all-time high of $76.87 on June 16, 2026. Recent performance has been strong: on August 19-20, driven by favorable US regulatory news, it surged over 20% from the $58-62 range, with a 7-day increase of about 29.5%. Platform trading volume, open interest (OI), and fees remain leading, but it faces token unlocking pressure and the impact of HIP-3 revenue sharing on protocol income. Core Assessment: The short-term technical outlook is bullish, approaching previous highs; it is necessary to observe whether it can hold above $70-72 and break through $77. The mid-to-long term depends on US market access implementation, RWA expansion, and the buying power's ability to absorb unlocking. The valuation is no longer cheap, but fundamentals remain strong. Current Market Overview - Price and Performance: Current price $74.37, 24-hour range $68.95-$74.88, 7-day CORE DAO Series ②｜Why I think Core's “TVL” can't be simply viewed? Recently, when looking at Core DAO, it's easy to fall into a data trap: Seeing hundreds of millions of dollars in “TVL,” and then directly concluding: "The Core ecosystem has already exploded." I think it needs to be broken down. Because Core has two completely different figures: Traditional DeFi TVL and BTC Staking / BTCFi asset scale. The former is actually not very large at present. DefiLlama currently reports Core DeFi TVL at only a few million dollars. But on the other hand, the Core ecosystem has disclosed a BTC staking scale of about 2,470 BTC. These two numbers cannot be conflated.$BTC surged to 75,342, up 8.61% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 75,770. Whether it can hold above 75,000 gives a clear direction: if it can't hold in the short term, it will pull back. The reason is not in the technical pattern but in the fuel. This round of open interest only increased by 3.09%, while the price rose by 8.61%, less than half the growth rate; the funding rate is 0.0077%, longs have hardly paid any premium for this move; the long-short account ratio barely moved from 1.04 to 1.05, retail investors haven't really entered. Altogether, this means: the price was pushed up by shorts capitulating and closing positions, not by new money entering. Shorts are a one-time fuel, once closed, it's gone. Looking above, in nearly 200 days, there have been 44 days closing above 75,000, those people are waiting to break even, so a rebound to this level naturally faces selling pressure. Therefore, my judgment is a pullback, but not a crash—without accumulated leverage, there won't be a cascading liquidation. To overturn this judgment is simple: if open interest clearly catches up and it holds above 75,770, then new money has truly entered. A break below 73,000 confirms the pullback.The recent BTC trend has stunned many, soaring directly from over 60,000 to around 75,000, a cumulative increase of 15%, with extremely volatile swings. ETH also took off, rising over 20% in two days, surpassing $2300. Behind the market is a fierce short squeeze, with over $1 billion in shorts forcibly liquidated in a single hour, marking the largest liquidation wave since 2021. In 24 hours, the entire network saw over $3 billion liquidated, nearly 180,000 traders wiped out, and a large number of short positions flushed out. But the question arises: Is this surge the start of a new market trend, or just a pulse triggered by short covering? On the funding side, institutional inflows are visible. On August 19, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517 million in a single day, a three-month high, with BlackRock alone contributing $285 million. The three-day cumulative inflow is close to $1 billion, indicating this rally is not just retail speculation. Catalysts are also piling up: Trump meeting with crypto industry executives, signals of regulatory easing, and increased long-term bond repurchases by the U.S. Treasury, multiple positive factors resonating. However, risks are also prominent. Although there is still room before the historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, the short-term surge has already accumulated a large amount of profit-taking pressure. Standard Chartered maintains an optimistic year-end target of $100,000, but some analysts believe this is just a technical rebound. My view: There is still momentum in the short term, but chasing the highs carries significant risk. Whether the trend continues depends on whether ETFs can sustain net inflows and whether the 75,000 resistance level can hold. If it holds, the next target is 80,000; if not, expect consolidation around 65,000. This is just a market opinion exchange and does not constitute investment advice BTC cleared $72K as $3B+ in shorts got wiped out — the second-largest liquidation event since 2021. Volume actually surged too, ~$91B, breaking a three-month lull. Spot demand looks like it's leading, not just leverage unwinding. Still below the 200-day average though, and ~44K BTC has flowed to exchanges — some holders cashing in. Jackson Hole next week is the real test. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to follow through? This wave of increase is indeed a bit fast. $BTC has surged from over 60,000 all the way to around 75,000 USD, with a nearly 20% gain in just a few days, and today it even approached 75,000 at one point. But I think the most important thing to watch now is no longer "how much more it can rise," but whether the funds behind it can keep up. Currently, it’s not just a pure emotional pull. The US stock Bitcoin ETF has clearly seen renewed capital inflows, with a single-day net inflow of 517 million USD on August 19, indicating that off-exchange funds are indeed returning. The problem is also obvious: the faster it rises, the more short-term profit-taking there will be. Plus, this round has already seen a large number of shorts liquidated, so the market can easily shift from a "short squeeze rally" to a "bullish relay." My view: around 75,000 is a very critical level. If BTC can hold steady there and the ETF continues to maintain net inflows, there is still momentum for funds to push higher; but if after the surge the funds can’t keep up, then be cautious of a wave of profit-taking. So now I won’t be outright bearish just because it’s rising sharply, nor will I blindly chase longs just because it breaks through. What really determines whether this rally can go far is not how pretty the candlesticks look, but whether there is sustained real money coming in. From now on, just watch two things: whether BTC can hold above 75,000, and whether ETF funds can continue to flow in.CORE DAO Series ①｜What changes will Core undergo after the bull market starts? In the past, many people looked at Core DAO and their first reaction was: "Another L1." But I believe this positioning is becoming outdated. What truly deserves attention is that Core is trying to become: The yield layer for BTC / BTCFi infrastructure. This means Core's core logic is shifting from: BTC → Core → DeFi to: BTC → BTC Staking → lstBTC → BTCFi → Yield → CORE value capture These two logics have completely different valuation models. Currently, Core's traditional DeFi TVL is actually not large; what really needs attention is BTC staking. The ecosystem has disclosed that the native BTC staking scale has already reached about 2,470 BTC. So when evaluating Core, you can't just look at the usual L1 metrics: • TVL • TPS • Active addresses • DEX trading volume You should pay more attention to: How much BTC is entering Core? Because if the future BTC bull market truly kicks off, BTC holders will develop an increasingly strong demand: "Besides price appreciation, can my BTC generate yield?" This is exactly Core's opportunity. Exploding❗ Samsung is about to launch the largest shareholder return plan in the history of Korean companies. $SAMSUNG According to informed media sources, Samsung Electronics will officially announce a major shareholder return plan this Friday, with a total scale of up to 110 trillion KRW, equivalent to 79 billion USD, with an estimated range of 90-110 trillion KRW. The board meeting is scheduled to be held after the Korean stock market closes, and the full details will be announced immediately after. The news has already ignited the market. On Thursday, Samsung surged more than 9% in a single day, and continued to rise 3.14% during intraday trading after opening on Friday. The market got an early tip: Samsung plans to return 50% of free cash flow to shareholders, mainly in the form of cash dividends, while also discussing the distribution of special dividends. The underlying logic behind this bold move: 1. AI storage dividends, earning huge profits. In Q2 2026, Samsung directly set a new record for single-quarter profit, with an operating profit of 89.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 1814%. Almost all profits come from the explosive demand for AI server high-bandwidth storage chips, holding a massive amount of cash. 2. Competitive pressure from SK Hynix. Just this Wednesday, SK Hynix took the lead in proposing a 40 trillion KRW stock buyback plan. The two storage giants have started a shareholder return competition; if Samsung's move is too small, funds will easily flow to Hynix. 3. Long-term undervaluation forcing management concessions. For a long time, Samsung's dividend payout ratio has been low, holding large cash flows, but shareholders received very limited returns. After making big money in the AI cycle, institutional investors strongly urgeLet me show you the real power of the debt reduction master, Old Xian and his wife. Many people talk about US debt focusing on yields, but the true strength of the debt reduction master lies in the net price. The chart below shows the net price of 30-year US Treasury bonds; the price issued in 2020 was 100, and now the net price is 47. Who bought the 100-dollar long-term US bonds in 2020? Japan, the UK, and these allied suckers. The US version of YCC by the debt reduction master essentially means that when these allied suckers can no longer hold on, funds are massively shifted out from short-term debt to buy back and cancel the long-term bonds halved to 47. Buying low and selling high nets a profit of 53. This is basically telling the old and new players on Wall Street that the iron bottom for US Treasury net price is 47, and above that, you can freely harvest those allied sucker bonds without fear of being bitten back. Some say Old Xian's quota is only 4 billion, which is useless against the total debt of 40 trillion. Then I ask, during 9/24, how much was the securities swap facility thrown out by the Fed? 500 billion. What is the total market cap of the big A shares in 2024? 8.5 trillion. Do you believe it? Is the real power of 9/24 really 500 billion? Obviously not. The real value of 9/24 is the Fed's statement, "If it's not enough, we can add more."BTC re-enters 70K, now the key is price holding power after the short squeeze energy is exhausted. Is there actually buying power defending 70K after the short liquidations end? The key facts confirmed from the original post are as follows. - BTC surged from about 64K to recover 70K. - In this process, more than $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated, acting as the upward momentum. - The current point is where the short squeeze effect is cooling down, and confirming support at 70K will determine the next step. A short squeeze is a structural feedback where forced liquidation of derivative positions leads to spot buying. The $2.7 billion short liquidation created temporary buying pressure, but this was not spontaneous market demand but forced position closure. Therefore, whether spot buying defending 70K appears after the liquidations end is the turning point for trend continuation. If 70K turns into support, the 71K-72K range, where short positions have accumulated again, could be the next target. Conversely, if 70K breaks down, this rise will be temporary due to leverage liquidation The scale keeps expanding, but the speed of making money has clearly slowed down. Has POPMART started to decline? It's reasonable to be bearish in the long term! The most interesting part of the semi-annual report is not that revenue is still growing, but that income grew by 23.8%, while profit only increased by 10.1%. In simple terms, the business is still growing, but the speed of making money can no longer keep up with revenue growth. LABUBU went to the World Cup, but POPMART's growth has clearly shifted gears! THE MONSTERS, which owns LABUBU, had revenue of ¥4.45 billion in the first half of the year, down 7.5% year-on-year. But Star People exploded directly, with revenue of ¥2.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 580.6%, instantly becoming the second largest IP. This actually exposes POPMART's real problem now: POPMART needs to constantly create the next LABUBU. If an IP becomes popular, the company grows rapidly; if the IP cools down, growth shifts gears accordingly, so the valuation naturally becomes more dependent on "the next hit." But if Star People, plush products, and more IPs can continue to take over, then POPMART is selling not just individual toys, but a capability to continuously create hits. What needs to be watched now is not whether LABUBU can become popular again. But whether POPMART can prove that it is not making money from just one IP, but truly has the ability to continuously create IPs. However, this seems not so easy to achieve! #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $POPMART Fundamental Research Report $XLM / Stellar (Established/Litecoin lineage) $3.20 Essentially: Stellar ($XLM) overall score 49/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token capture has been realized. Stellar (token $XLM), an established project in the Litecoin lineage track. Focused on cross-border payments as a veteran player. Competitors include XRP and TRX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, with users lacking data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500 per month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days. User metrics: MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized—no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing referenced from PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales from whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration evidenced by API/SDK access (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments. Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparisons): circulating market cap: Stellar $3.00B, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. FDV: Stellar $4.20B, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Annual revenue: Stellar $2.00M, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Stellar undisclosed, XRP undisclosed, TRX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view doubles revenue, burn implementation, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources for reference only, not investment advice. Indicator deviations over 30% require reassessment. Logic provided, decision is yours. #FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitBTC quietly returned to $72,700 last night, but what really caught my attention was that after the rise, it didn’t immediately crash like before. Have you noticed that the US stock market falls while crypto rises? This decoupling has happened several times in a row. Last night, the Nasdaq dropped about 1% again, the S&P fell 0.87%, US Treasury yields climbed back up, and oil prices remain high. The slight easing brought by Treasury buybacks seems to be fading. Traditional markets are clearly catching their breath, but crypto seems oblivious—BTC still rose about 4% in 24 hours. This is not a small matter; it indicates that the money buying crypto and the money buying US stocks may no longer be exactly the same group. - Capital preferences are quietly shifting: from "following US stocks" to "driven by independent narratives" - Policy support is a key foundation: the CLARITY Act continues to advance, and the White House met with crypto industry leaders a couple of days ago, maintaining a bottoming sentiment - ETH broke through $2,300 yesterday, showing more resilience than BTC and starting to find its own rhythm - XRP rose over 12% in 24 hours last night, with BNB and LINK following suit, clearly showing capital spreading from BTC to the periphery Yesterday, watching the market, my biggest impression was: BTC is responsible for stabilizing the front line, ETH for probing space, and altcoins for creating profit opportunities. This clear division of labor in the market is often healthier than a one-sided rally because it shows that capital is not panic-driven clustering but selectively allocating positions. However, there are a few points I want to remind myself of and also remind you: 🔥BTC surged from 64,000 to 75,000 in three days: This rally wasn’t driven by Trump alone, stop blaming the wrong person $BTC On August 21 intraday, BTC surged near $75,000, fluctuating repeatedly between 74,594 and 75,120, with a cumulative three-day increase of about 15%. But if you only look at the White House crypto summit and think this rally is a “Trump bull run,” you’re being deceived by appearances—this wave is a three-layer structure exploding together: Bond market ignited first: On August 19, the U.S. Treasury doubled the repurchase scale of 10–30 year long bonds “at least,” pushing long-term yields down; on the same day, BTC started its breakout from 64,000. The logic is “pressing the long end = loosening liquidity = risk asset revaluation.” ETF followed up with aggressive buying: From August 17–19, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1 billion over three consecutive days, with $517 million on August 19 alone, a three-month high. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $285 million, with total historical net inflows surpassing $61.6 billion. On-chain accumulation has been quietly happening: According to CryptoQuant data, over the past 60 days, large holders have net increased their BTC holdings by about 43,000 BTC ≈ $2.75 billion; mid-sized holders with 100–1,000 BTC and super whales holding over 10,000 BTC are buying simultaneously. This isn’t retail FOMO; it’s a structure laid near 60,000. $BTC This round of crypto market rebound was driven by early speculation on the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. All major macroeconomic data released this week fully met expectations. The Fed meeting minutes were hawkish, combined with employment and manufacturing data significantly exceeding expectations, quickly shattering the rate cut fantasy. High interest rates will persist longer, and the core logic supporting this rally no longer exists. After a sustained rise, a large amount of short-term profit-taking positions have accumulated. Following the market rule of buying on expectations and selling on facts, without new positive catalysts, profit-taking funds are exiting, laying the foundation for a market correction. On the market front, BTC's previous rise was driven by short covering; incremental buying is fading, upward momentum is exhausted, and a likely scenario is a sideways downward correction to digest profits. ETH closely follows BTC's trend, with greater downside elasticity during the correction phase. Most altcoins will follow the overall market pullback; a few, like TRUMP, with strong token structures, have opportunities for localized independent rallies but cannot resist systemic market downturn risks. Although multiple crypto policies are still pending, bills are easily delayed and can only bring short-term market pulses, unlikely to change the current macro pressure pattern. Summary of market outlook: 1. Macro expectations have been realized, upward driving forces have disappeared, and a short-term correction window has officially opened; avoid blindly chasing highs. 2. At this stage, prioritize guarding against systemic risks, moderately reduce positions, and avoid selling pressure on high-level tokens. 3. Closely monitor BTC's key support levels; if support holds, a range-bound consolidation will occur; if broken effectively, a deeper correction will begin. 4. Even if optimistic about altcoins with independent logic, it is necessary toLAB real-time market data analysis on August 21 at 13:45 Current price is $0.0842, with a 24-hour increase of about +4.13%. After the panic crash caused by large-scale token concentration deposits to exchanges in the previous period, the current situation is a weak rebound after overselling, with overall weak rebound volume. Key price levels: first support at 0.0775, strong support at 0.0710‑0.0730; short-term resistance at 0.0912 (intraday high). After breaking through, the upper target is in the 0.103‑0.108 range. Contract level: The contract turnover in the past 24 hours has shrunk significantly compared to the previous peak, indicating low short-term capital participation willingness. The on-site long-short ratio slightly favors longs, mostly short-term funds speculating on oversold rebounds. Long-term main funds have not yet returned. The market shows frequent spikes and extremely high volatility risk. Capital level: Previously, large addresses related to the project consolidated tokens accounting for nearly 43.4% of the circulating supply and deposited them to exchanges, leaving a psychological shadow of continuous selling pressure on the market and damaging long-term capital confidence. This rebound is mainly driven by trapped funds entering to speculate on oversold recovery. Without new major narrative catalysts, it is difficult to restart the previous main upward trend. To initiate a new round of sustained rally, large-scale selling pressure needs to be absorbed, and new narrative hotspots must emerge to take over. Overall, at this stage, it is only an oversold rebound with insufficient bullish momentum. The market fluctuates repeatedly, and the risk of chasing highs has significantly increased. The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ENA is considered by Arthur Hayes as a 5x play this season, what could be the driving force? From the bottom at 0.07 I mentioned on 8/13, $ENA has now bounced up to 0.1251, increasing over 7% in just one session, confirming the point that after a 90% drop from the peak, it only takes capital flow returning to trigger a strong rebound. #BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch The U.S. Treasury may repurchase more than $4 billion each period, and a rare change is beginning to appear in the U.S. Treasury market. The U.S. Treasury just increased the repurchase scale of 10–30 year bonds from about $2 billion to at least $4 billion each period. Today, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen clearly stated: if necessary, this number can continue to rise. Why should Crypto pay attention to this? Because the current problem in the U.S. is not short-term interest rates, but that long-term borrowing is becoming increasingly expensive. The 30-year Treasury yield recently surged to near the highest level since 2007, putting pressure on mortgages, corporate financing, and tech stock valuations. What the Treasury is doing now, simply put, is buying back long-term bonds to try to push down long-end yields. This is also one of the important macro backgrounds for BTC's recent sudden acceleration: long bond yields falling, the dollar weakening, and funds being more willing to re-enter gold and Crypto. But there is a very big conflict here: after the Treasury's repurchase, the 30-year yield rebounded to about 5.25%, and the 10-year yield is also around 4.71%. This indicates the market is saying: $4 billion can save liquidity but cannot solve the $40 trillion U.S. debt and high inflation. So what we really need to watch next is not "how much more the Treasury will buy." Rather: if repurchases continue to expand, can long bond yields truly be pushed down? If they can be suppressed, the macro environment for BTC and gold will continue to improve; if not, this rally will face high interest rate pressure again Pop Mart’s latest results tell a more complicated story. 📊 Revenue hit ¥17.17B, up 23.8%, but net profit rose only 10.1%—growth is still strong, but profitability is slowing. The bigger question is whether new IPs like Star People can fill the gap as LABUBU cools off. Six IPs generating over ¥100M is encouraging, but overseas weakness shows the global expansion story still needs proof. Pop Mart is growing, but the next stage is about IP durability, margins, and overseas execution. #财报观察员: Pop Mart shifts gears in growth, can multiple IPs take over? A cliff-like 12% plunge: Baidu kills its own “cash cow,” is AI this powerful medicine a cure or poison? Baidu has delivered a financial report that makes people break out in a cold sweat. Once the report was released, the US stock market immediately responded with a clean and sharp drop—pre-market and subsequent trading days saw the stock price plunge 12.7%. The air is filled with the sour taste of “tears of the times.” Looking only at the surface numbers, total revenue was ¥31.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 4%, seemingly still within a “pain zone” that people can barely accept. But if you flip to the core business page of the report, you’ll find the real blow hidden beneath the surface: The once rock-solid, day-and-night milk-producing “cash cow”—online marketing service revenue (i.e., advertising)—plummeted 19%, down to only ¥13.1 billion. Meanwhile, Baidu App’s monthly active users (MAU) have slid from their past peak to about 640 million. On one side, AI business is booming in the report, with infrastructure fully deployed; on the other, traditional advertising business is hemorrhaging precipitously. This scene is like a middle-aged man biting the bullet to keep up with the youth trend, smashing the luxury car that made him wealthy and replacing it with an electric-burning race car. To survive the life-and-death trial of the AI era, it had to personally slaughter its own advertising cash cow to sacrifice for that uncertain future. $BTC DOGE's recent surge is a textbook whale trap: first sweeping stop losses on short positions between 0.071–0.076, then a spike up to 0.0835, with social media shouting "breakout" to lure retail investors to chase higher. On-chain data shows an average buy-in at 0.0835, with all the chasing volume buried above; old whales' semi-dormant addresses are transferring coins to exchanges, and spot taker sell volume is outweighing buy volume. 60%–70% of circulating supply is held by fewer than 200 giant whales. This is not a resistance breakout but a liquidity-driven dump to rescue positions. Chasing above 0.0835 means paying whales a bailout fee; only if the price holds above 0.071 on the pullback is it worth watching.Yili Hua: Bitcoin Has Ended the Bear Market Trend, Still Bullish for the Next Two Weeks Yili Hua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), wrote that since judging the rebound ended in May, his main focus over the past two months has been one thing: July to August may be the last bottom-fishing opportunity for this BTC cycle. With Bitcoin's daily chart strongly breaking through the 120-day and 200-day moving averages, and the weekly chart breaking through the 20-week moving average, the BTC bear market trend has officially ended. He stated that the market is still bullish for the next two weeks, but a pullback may occur after rising to a certain level. The subsequent pullback will not exceed 50% of the rise. If investors use leverage, it is recommended to close long positions and refer to the weekly chart trends and pullback ranges during the 2023 bull cycle. In this cycle, Bitcoin fell from a high of 126,000 USD to 57,000 USD, a maximum drop of about 56%. He believes this drop has formed a cycle low, and it will be difficult for the market to see BTC prices starting with 50,000 USD again.$BTC I just used floating profits to add several more positions in batches. To start with the conclusion: this time is not illogical, but the logic is only halfway done—the direction is well-founded, the position is aggressive, the risk structure has clearly deteriorated, and the risk-reward ratio is inadequate. From the market perspective, the 1-hour and 15-minute moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, with the PDI significantly above the MDI, and the trend has not yet reversed; The 5-minute price is still holding near WMA20. Therefore, I am not betting against the trend by following the trend. But the problem lies in timing. This increase occurred near the 75,200–75,300 resistance zone. After a brief 15-minute spike to 75,494, it quickly pulled back, indicating that the selling pressure above has not been truly digested. Meanwhile, the 1-hour RSI is around 76.5, indicating a strong but somewhat hot state. Adding positions now feels more like rushing to break through previous highs and below, rather than waiting for a pullback after the breakout is confirmed. The changes in position positions are even more noteworthy: the original nominal position amount was about 19,230, which expanded to about 32,092 after the addition, an increase of nearly 67%; The average opening price rose from about 75,188.9 to 75,213.8, and the breakeven price increased to about 75,289.2. Most importantly, the strong flat line has moved up from 73,759.9 to 74,510.4. Based on the current 75,130 points, the original strong flattening buffer was about 1,370 points, now down to about 620 points, reducing the safety margin by approximately 55%. On the surface, I am using floating profits to increase my position, but in reality, I am returning the safety cushion I have already gained back to the market. Floating Excess Never Was"🚀 $DOGE — LONG SETUP 🟢 📍 Entry: 0.08256 🎯 TP1: 0.08450 🎯 TP2: 0.08700 🎯 TP3: 0.09100 🛑 SL: 0.07950 The bullish structure remains intact as buyers defend the entry zone. A renewed momentum push could send DOGE toward the next resistance levels. Stay disciplined and manage risk.#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch BTC just ripped from $64K to $73K, while ETH pushed above $2,340. And the liquidation numbers are insane: around $3.3B wiped out, with shorts making up roughly 92% of the damage. 🔥 But don’t get trapped by the “$160B entered the market” narrative. This looks much more like a massive short squeeze than a wave of fresh spot capital. Forced short covering can make the chart look unstoppable—until the forced buying runs out. #BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #PopMartEarningsWatch #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over? I think the current wave of rally has a somewhat shaky fund relay. Rising from 64,000 to 75,000 in three days looks fierce, but I think it’s more like shorts being collectively buried (over $3 billion in short liquidations), pushed up by passive buying, not real money chasing. Several key signals are not good: 1. No significant new long positions entering in perpetual contracts, the short squeeze engine is about to stall. 2. On the ETF side, although over $500 million flowed in a single day, overall it’s still at a floating loss (average price around 82,000), so the pressure to sell to break even remains. 3. Short-term holders have already started transferring coins to exchanges to lock in profits. Trading suggestions: - Bitcoin: Don’t chase the highs. I think a light long position can be tried on a pullback to the 70,400-70,800 range, targeting around 72,500, with a firm stop loss below 69,500. - Ethereum: Follow Bitcoin but with greater volatility. If Bitcoin holds steady, Ethereum’s support near 2,200 can be watched for a rebound. Next, focus on spot buying and ETF net inflows; if they don’t pick up, this wave is likely just a pulse move. $BTC $ETH #Bitcoin broke through $70,000 on August 20, reaching a new high since early June, and once climbed above $72,000. As of August 21, BTC's highest point reached about $73,800, with a weekly increase expanding to about 17%. 🚀 Why the sudden surge? 1. U.S. Treasury repo lowers long-term yields The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repos, causing the 30-year yield to fall from its high. The decline in interest rates improves liquidity expectations, attracting funds to "hard assets" like gold and Bitcoin. 2. Trump strengthens crypto policy expectations Trump urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act and signaled the government might further purchase Bitcoin, significantly reducing market uncertainty about U.S. crypto regulation. 3. Short sellers forced to cover, accelerating the rise After BTC broke through key round-number resistance, a large number of short stops/liquidations were triggered, further amplifying the rally. Data shows daily crypto market short liquidations reached billions of dollars. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over? Personal opinion BTC has entered a short-term accelerated rally phase, with the market showing obvious short squeeze characteristics. A large number of short positions have been liquidated, passively pushing up the coin price, which has quickly warmed the overall market risk sentiment. However, whether the rally can continue depends not on the short-term gains but on whether incremental funds can take over the baton after the short squeeze. Part of the momentum for this round of rise comes from short covering. A large number of previously accumulated short orders were triggered for forced liquidation at key resistance levels, and the buybacks from closing positions created a positive feedback loop that amplified the gains. This is a battle of existing funds, not a new influx of long positions. The encouraging sign is that spot ETFs have seen a phase of inflows, with large net inflows in a single day, and institutional buying has returned, providing real support for the market. But it is important to distinguish that a single-day large inflow is different from sustained capital entry; one large inflow cannot be equated directly with a complete reversal of the capital trend. Currently, the market has formed obvious divergences. The optimistic view holds that regulatory bill expectations combined with marginal easing of macro inflation, loosening of high US Treasury yields, and reopening of the crypto asset allocation window will lead to ETF funds warming up and starting a new main upward trend. The cautious view warns that after the short squeeze rally, a large amount of short positions have been cleared, and there are no more shorts to provide passive buying. If ETF inflows quickly decline, it will be difficult to maintain the high levels relying only on retail sentiment, and after short-term overbought conditions, a profit-taking pullback pressure may come at any time. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ There might be some good news for those looking to withdraw funds; you might want to wait a little longer. ┈➤ 800 billion RMB is about to be selectively released. First, this is not QE, nor is it a liquidity injection. But the funds come from idle commercial bank reserves, so there will be some liquidity released. Second, the scale of 800 billion RMB is quite small, so its impact on the exchange rate will be minimal. Third, this portion of funds is targeted for the AI and digital economy sectors, so it may not flow into the international market. Fourth, however, this could have some effect on market sentiment and expectations. To recall, last year this policy-driven fund release started in late September and was completed by the end of October. At the same time, the Fed cut interest rates in September last year, with expectations of further cuts in Q4. Between September 24 and October 24 last year, the USD/CNY exchange rate did see a slight upward movement. Last year 500 billion was released; this year it's 800 billion. The US is unlikely to cut rates this year. ┈➤ The US Treasury is accelerating the buyback of US debt. From September 9 to November 4, this action, while not enough to completely reverse the dollar's trend, should have some short-term impact. ┈➤ The trend of USDT Last year, U/USD traded mostly at a premium; this year, it has mostly been at a discount. The price of U is also related to market conditions. BTC has broken $75,000, and USDT is also showing an upward trend. In summary, U is not guaranteed to rise 100%, but at least in the short term (within one month), it should stabilize.After the rapid surge and celebration of BTC, how much longer can the funds continue to follow through? $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ The low-volatility market that had been silent for months was completely ended overnight. BTC powerfully broke through multiple layers of resistance, standing above the $75,000 mark, tearing apart the long-term narrow-range consolidation pattern. The most direct driver of this surge was a large-scale short squeeze, with nearly $3 billion liquidated across the entire network within 24 hours. A large number of crowded short positions were forced to stop losses, causing passive buying to flood in and forcibly pushing the price higher. The positive factors are not limited to contract short squeezes; spot funds have already genuinely flowed back. On August 19, the net inflow of BTC+ETH spot ETFs in the US market reached as high as $706 million in a single day. Institutional buying, absent for a long time, re-entered the market, laying a spot foundation for this round of rise, no longer just a fleeting spike driven by contract leverage. However, market divergences are now fully exposed: Some are confident this is a trend recovery brought by a regulatory turning point and liquidity warming, with the consolidation bottom completely finished and a new upward cycle beginning; Others remain highly cautious, believing this is merely a short-term overextension of a squeeze. Once the shorts are fully liquidated, without new funds to follow, volume will lag, profit-taking at high levels will occur, and the market could easily see a significant pullback. We need to recognize two core key points: 1. The first wave of this rally was mostly driven by short covering. Now that many low-position shorts have exited, continuing strength must rely on sustained net inflows from ETFs, incremental stablecoin funds, and retail off-exchange capital working together. 2. If volume continues to shrink and market heat fades, the long-position leverage accumulated at high levels will become the fuse for a new round of intense volatility, greatly increasing the risk of a sharp pullback after the surge. Core practical strategy for the future: Do not blindly chase the acceleration. Holders should gradually set break-even stop profits to protect hard-earned gains; observers need not rush to enter, but wait for a pullback to key support and clear volume structure before judging opportunities. The celebration will eventually pause. The faster the market moves, the more we need to steady the pace and rationally view this surge, avoiding letting short-term frenzy disrupt trading rhythm. Risk reminder: The content is for market analysis and communication only and does not constitute any investment advice Market Observation: Such consistent ETF net inflows haven't been seen for a long time. I was focused on watching the market, trading, and chasing news the past few days, which made me overlook the ETF capital flows. Looking back, before BTC started on August 19, there was actually a very clear signal: BTC, ETH, and SOL all showed ETF net inflows simultaneously. And around 8 PM that same day, BTC officially started its move. Looking back today, the signal has become even clearer. Besides BTC, ETH, and SOL, related ETF funds like HYPE, LINK, DOGE, and XRP have also successively shown net inflows. ETF Signal: The key is not how much capital flows into a single coin, but that the funds are starting to show directional consistency. This phenomenon often appears when market risk appetite noticeably warms up and capital re-embraces crypto assets. Of course, ETF net inflows don't mean the market will only rise without falling, but at least it shows institutional funds are not clearly retreating and are instead supporting trend continuation. Capital Flow: Overall, current funds show a certain resonance characteristic: * BTC, ETH, and SOL are the first to show sustained net inflows * Then it spreads to mainstream and hot assets like HYPE, LINK, DOGE, and XRP * Funds are no longer acting on isolated points but flowing synchronously at the sector level This "diffusive inflow" usually means market sentiment is shifting from cautious to positive. Trading Strategy: So my core idea at this stage is simple: $BTC $OKB $SOL Do not short against the trend. Do not short against the trend. Do not short against the trend. Unless there is a clear reversal signal on the chart, there is no need to easily bet on a top due to short-term fluctuations. Operationally, I prefer to wait for BTC to pull back before going long: * Small divergence, watch for support * Large divergence, wait for a second test * After confirming the second test, wait for consolidation breakout As long as the trend is intact, following the trend is more important than guessing the top. The above is only my personal trading record and market observation #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
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