Today Ethereum hit a pullback bottom at 2340 Also bought a few altcoin lottery tickets with the bros XRP fartcoin hype is also wildly profitable Been doing intense live streams and trade signals these past few days If Bitcoin and Ethereum don't fluctuate over the weekend, we can keep positioning in altcoins Keep grinding tomorrow!!! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？

SanDisk really can't fall any further for now, so I closed the position. Liquidity is returning to the crypto market, and I will seriously go long on Ethereum. I have set a trap between 2240-2180. Buying aggressively!!! #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？

This afternoon, SK Hynix announced a stock buyback and cancellation of about $28.6 billion within 3 months. They plan to use more than 50% of the cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 for buybacks, cancellations, and dividends. I was sleeping and ended up closing my original 1680 short position at breakeven (damn, so frustrating). SK Hynix's buyback is indeed an important part of a short squeeze, but it should be noted that this is a capital return positive. It is not new news about storage price increases, customer orders, or production cuts, nor is it a large-scale market buildup of new long positions. If interested, you can review my previous analysis article on SanDisk's surge due to the investment conference. So this is a sector sentiment transmission: "positive trigger + short covering amplification." This also explains why the price couldn't hold after the surge; 1693 became the short-term top confirmation level. The current surge should still be regarded as a false breakout pressure level for now. Just look at the positions to understand. You can't directly conclude that SanDisk is restarting a major uptrend just because of SK Hynix's buyback $SNDK #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡

The recent volatility in the crypto space is truly touching. Let's talk about gold. Since August, gold has risen from around $4000 to near $4450. This is mainly supported by weak economic data, a weaker dollar, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases. Currently, with the US-Iran war gradually having less impact, it will be directly influenced by the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and inflation. There is a Federal Reserve meeting minutes release at 2 AM tonight, so keep an eye on it. The market currently prices about a 67% probability that rates will remain unchanged in September. If the minutes emphasize employment and cooling inflation, with no rush to raise rates, it leans bullish. If they emphasize energy price inflation risks and more members supporting rate hikes, it leans bearish. The long-term cycle remains bullish, but short-term will be suppressed by long bond yields and profit-taking. Gold's daily average volatility is about $70; the minutes release may cause spikes. My personal view is to gradually buy on dips around the 4320-4340 support zone. Take profit above 4400, stop loss can be set below 4300. However, if the 1-hour candle after the minutes closes effectively below 4330, temporarily abandon long positions. #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 $XAU

Went to see the dentist today What should I do? Does it hurt or not? How many days can I not eat?

Last time during SanDisk's earnings report, we even did an all-night live stream to watch it. At that time, there was a question: why did SanDisk's stock fall despite a good earnings report? SanDisk's earnings on August 5th were actually very strong, but the stock still fell nearly 8% after hours. The main reason was that some data agencies had higher expectations for profit guidance. The market's real concern was whether NAND prices and profit margins have already peaked. However, at yesterday's investor conference, management directly addressed this core concern. The adjusted gross margin is expected to remain around 80%, and the adjusted operating margin is expected to be about 75%. The adjusted free cash flow rate is about 50%, with plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. These profit margin and cash flow targets clearly exceed the valuation framework of traditional cyclical storage companies. The market is beginning to reprice SanDisk from a "cyclical stock" to a "high-profit AI infrastructure platform." Additionally, SanDisk has signed new long-term commercial agreements with eight customers, covering about 50% of production for FY2027 and about two-thirds of production for FY2028. The macro environment is a booster, not the main reason, as mentioned yesterday when discussing gold. Whether it's this month's non-farm payrolls or CPI, including last night's PPI, all are positive data. Although the PPI decline is mostly due to lower energy inflation (crude $oil), service sector inflation remains but has partially eased market concerns about further Fed rate hikes. Currently, the short interest ratio exceeds 70%, shorts are clearly crowded, waiting for a pullback to go long! #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 $SNDK

Actually, this month's data has little impact on the crypto market; the biggest impact is on gold. Whether it's the non-farm payroll data missing expectations or the CPI data meeting expectations, it all points to a cooling down that reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. With the decline in rate hike expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields fall, and gold tends to benefit in the short term. As always, the capital market is always about speculating on expectations. Before the CPI release, the market had already bet on inflation cooling down. After the data is realized, a typical pattern emerges: buying on expectations → no significant expectation gap → data release spike → profit-taking. The current pullback does not necessarily mean a trend reversal; it looks more like waiting for tonight's PPI to provide a second confirmation. Now, why hasn't the crypto market reacted much despite the lowered rate hike expectations? Whether it's BTC or ETH, the main reason is the risk asset logic. What is needed is not just a halt in rate hikes but also clearer liquidity expansion and risk appetite. Therefore, in the current macro environment, gold simultaneously serves as an interest rate trade and a safe-haven trade. Currently, gold's strong 4-hour support is around 4300-4320; pay attention to tonight's PPI data. If it is below expectations, gold will likely retake 4400 to challenge previous highs. If there is a clear upside surprise, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rebound, possibly testing the 4320 support level. If it basically meets expectations, the volatility will be moderate. After all, it's not a major data release; it still depends on whether there is a significant expectation gap. #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 $XAU

I've already cried a lot these past few days, so why make me cry again? What else can I say? Congratulations on your successful landing.

The non-farm payroll data that came out was really scary. I expected the data might be lower than anticipated, but I didn't expect negative growth. Looking at the specific data, the main reason for the negative growth is still government layoffs. Before the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September was 55%, but it dropped to 40% after the data was published. Maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September has once again become the market benchmark, and the rate hike expectations have been significantly weakened. The US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and the USD/JPY exchange rate have all been falling, gold is taking off, and the US stock market is also up nearly 1% in pre-market trading. Although this is clearly positive, I still feel something is a bit off....#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？

Since the entire market broke through 1880 on Wednesday, it has reached a high near 1930 It has been oscillating in the 1895-1920 range for two days It seems that the non-farm payrolls report tonight needs to deliver something strong to stimulate this market There are several important points to watch in tonight's non-farm data Market funds and liquidity are very poor Therefore, ordinary levels of below-expectation data may not bring a big rally Instead, stronger-than-expected data could cause greater damage to the crypto market The market has already traded in advance, with gold rising more than 6% this week The ADP data from the past two days has already shown cooling employment and a reduced probability of rate hikes This has caused the probability of a September rate hike to drop from 67% to 55% Only if tonight's data continues to be unexpectedly weak can the expectation of a September rate hike continue to decline According to the US market control logic, if the market is too enthusiastic, they start a war and block the strait, causing oil prices to rise and signaling rate hikes If the US stock market falls too much, they negotiate and open the strait, fabricate some fake data, and release rate cut expectations My position determines my stance. Data can be faked, but I firmly remain bullish on #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？