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📊 Market Close: $XRP current price is about $1.074, down nearly 8% over the past week. The Senate shelving the Clarity Act, combined with rising risk aversion ahead of the FOMC meeting, put pressure on prices in the narrow 1.06-1.08 range. Technically, the market remains within a downward channel. --- 📈 Support Level (from Near to Far) First support: 1.04-1.05 — a key technical defensive line in the near term, with the market repeatedly testing this area. Second support: 1.00—psychological round number, with both technical and emotional significance; a break may trigger stop-loss orders to accelerate sell-offs. Third support: 0.95 — the next important defensive zone after the $1 fall. Extreme support: 0.84-0.85 — a descending triangle measurement target; if it breaks below 1.04 to confirm the pattern, the potential downside is about 20%. 📉 Pressure Level (from Near to Far) First resistance: 1.10-1.11—20-day EMA dynamic resistance level; a reclaim here could weaken short-term downward pressure. Second Resistance: 1.14-1.15 — Only a daily close above this level can reverse the current bearish structure. Third resistance: 1.18-1.20 — the primary resistance zone; if it breaks and holds steadily, it could challenge $1.35. Upper ceiling: 1.42—200-day EMA; a reclaim suggests the long-term trend may improve. --- 🐋 Market maker movements on the chain Whales and retail investors are sharply divided: wallets holding 100,000 to 100 million $XRP have increased their holdings by 2.8% over the past five weeks, while microwallets (below 0.01 XRP) have reduced their holdings by 5.2%. From July 9 to 15, whales increased their holdings by 70 million XRP. Record exchange outflows: On July 22, whale withdrawal dominance reached a record high of 77.8%, with retail investors accounting for only 22%. Binance whale inflows fell to 25.3 million XRP, the lowest since January 2025. Spot trading volume sharply cooled: Binance and Upbit saw a sharp contraction in spot activity. Binance's top-up amount dropped from $650,000 in June to $350,000. Whales trading over $1 million plunged 97% within a week. --- ✅ Positive factors 👉 $XRP #现货ETF持续净流入: In July, net inflow was about $13.03 million, with total assets under management of about $1 billion. ETF holdings remain stable and prices weaken, creating a divergence, with institutions still positioning long-term funds. 👉 XRP Ledger Technical Upgrade: fixCleanup3_2_0 Amendment Mainnet Launch on July 29, with 85.71% Validator Consensus. Covers core functions such as single-asset vaults, lending protocols, and permissioned DEXs. 👉 On-chain chip structure is improving: whales are increasing their holdings, exchange inflows are drying up, and withdrawal control is concentrated among large players—supply-side pressure is easing. --- ❌ Bearish factors ⚠️ Clarity Act shelved: The Senate postponed its review of the bill on Monday, with the window for passage before the August 7 recess significantly reduced. Standard Chartered Bank's $8 target price is based on the bill's approval + ETF inflows of $40-80 billion. ⚠️ FOMC hawkish risk: Although the market expects rates to likely remain unchanged, a 25 basis point hike option has not been completely ruled out. If a hawkish signal is issued, XRP could test down to $1.01 or even $0.97. ⚠️ Technically under pressure: Prices are below all major EMAs for the 20-, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day periods. The 50-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average, and the "death cross" pattern continues. The ADX is only 11.2, indicating very weak trend directionality. --- ⚠️ Summary: The current price is in a narrow range of 1.04-1.10, with bulls and bears tugging. On-chain whales continue to accumulate funds, and stable ETF inflows provide medium-term support; However, the bill is stalled, FOMC uncertainty, and a broadly bearish technical outlook are short-term suppressive forces. 1.04 is the most critical line of defense recently—the Code of Conduct is expected to rebound between 1.10 and 1.14; the Rule of Limitations 0.84-0.85 may be the next stop. Before the direction is clear, watch more and move less; follow 🤝 whoever wins. #韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops the A-share market on its first day. #财报观察员: OKX MasterClass Premieres Tonight, Helping You Understand the Financial Reports of Four Tech Giants. #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day. $SKHYNIX (SK Hynix concept token) has once again entered a heavy trading rally, plunging 9.30% intraday, with the price hitting a low of $960. It has since fallen from the previous high of $1,354.21 and has since fallen bearish, with a 30-day cumulative drop of 42.25%. Following the collapse of the SNDK SanDisk token the previous night, this altcoin, tied to the popularity of South Korea's storage giant, completely collapsed and plunged repeatedly, leaving countless traders who bought at the bottom halfway up the mountain deeply trapped. Many people wonder: when the memory chip industry is still talking about cyclical recovery, why have concept coins riding the wave of popularity plummeted so uncontrollably? Combining the dynamics of the Korean stock market, progress in the domestic storage industry, and contract capital behavior, we break down the truth behind this series of consecutive declines. 1. Reference for Real Industry & Market Events Corresponding to This Crash 1. South Korea's domestic stock market collectively weakened, while SK Hynix's listed company shares came under pressure and declined. Recently, the Korean composite index experienced a phased correction, with SK Hynix's underlying stock on the Korea Exchange closing negative for several consecutive days. Overseas institutions began reducing holdings of storage hardware stocks in early Q3, with capital priorities shifting toward the AI computing server industry chain. The weakness of listed companies directly put emotional pressure on the crypto sector's concept coins. Major players took advantage of the negative share momentum to sell sell-off, breaking through key support levels without consuming large amounts of shares, triggering collective stop-loss and exiting retail investors. 2. Changxin Memory's capacity continues to be released, breaking expectations of price hikes from overseas storage oligopolistic Semiconductor industry news continues to update across the internet, with domestic Changxin Memory's CXMT steadily expanding DRAM wafer lineup 😩 Traders' darkest hour: ETH just unevened, BTC is stuck again. Taking consecutive cuts left and right, the long run is like a meat grinder. In contrast, OKB has been moving sideways like a rock, so steady it makes people envious. ⚡ It's not that I don't want to share my thoughts now, but this market simply can't go long. The market has completely lost its senses; the crypto market has long been glued to the rhythm of US stocks. As soon as the US market plunged at the open, Bitcoin and Ethereum collectively declined, with the linkage so strong it was almost suffocating. Without independent market trends, they rely on the US stock market's mood, and their margin for error in going long is extremely low. They get stuck repeatedly and are physically and mentally exhausted. 📉 The core issue is simple: when crypto loses its safe-haven nature and becomes a macro sentiment amplifier, any contrarian long position is a gamble of luck. Currently, the market has no alpha, only beta, with a single direction and almost zero margin for error. It's not that they don't work hard, but that trends don't allow it.OKX launched XGME today, which is a tokenized product tracking the price of GameStop stock. It can be traded 24 hours a day, and the market does not close on weekends. But here is a detail: After the US stock market closes, the price of XGME is not driven by real-time transactions in the US stock market, but continues trading based on the previous closing price and market estimates. So if you see a sudden surge or drop over the weekend, don't rush to assume that the GME stock itself has undergone the same change. When the US stock market opens, the price may realign, and previous deviations may be quickly corrected. Being able to trade all day is convenient, but it does not mean that the price at every time period is equally reliable. $XGME Guys, in the past two days, there have been people saying that oil prices will continue to rise. I couldn't help but open my long crude oil contract. Looking at my account, I was close to breaking even, but I was thinking: Could this really be a break-even? But in the blink of an eye, the market poured cold water on me. $BZ In just two days, it fell from above $100 to around $88, a drop of nearly 12%. The war premium previously fueled by Middle East tensions is being gradually squeezed out by the market. After Trump announced a pause in airstrikes, the market has already priced the probability of a ceasefire before August down to 75%, and funds have begun trading in early on expectations of "conflict de-escalation." However, I think we shouldn't be too optimistic right now. A 75% probability of a ceasefire does not necessarily mean the market can continue moving forward; on the contrary, it could mean that more than half of the positive news has already been priced in in advance. Don't forget, Trump also said that if negotiations fail, military operations could still continue. Looking at prices, before the war broke out, $CL crude oil was still around $72. Even after dropping to $88, the risk premium has not been fully squeezed out. The real drama was still in the early hours of Thursday. The Fed's policy meeting is the biggest variable this week. The drop in oil prices has indeed helped ease inflation, which is positive for risk assets, so $BTC has returned to around $65,000. But if the Fed continues to be hawkish, market sentiment may cool again, and this rebound may not last long. Guys, my crude oil price looks like it's almost breaking even, but now the market is pulling me this trick. Hopefully, this time it won't be another **"breaking even, just a little short, then continuing to get stuck again. 😂#比特币自亚洲盘低点回升 $BTC Just recovered from the Asian session low, dipped to a low of 62,660, and is now back near 63,800. That long lower shadow stung my eyes—the bears kept hitting for a long time, only to get slapped back by the bulls. But don't get too happy too soon; this rebound could be a trap. Do you know why it dropped today? South Korea's KOSPI has hit a circuit breaker, dropping 10.8%! SK Hynix fell 14.8% in one day, and Japan's Kioxia dropped 18%. It's not because of any negative news in Bitcoin, but because Asian chip stocks have crashed, and risk assets have been dragged down together. Alphabet's free cash flow turned negative for the first time in Q2, with $5.9 billion burned through, and the market began to question whether AI investments could really be profitable. Even worse, in the past 24 hours, over $510 million of bulls were liquidated, with 88% being long. This is not a normal pullback; it's driving all the leveraged dogs away. To be blunt, I don't have the guts to chase this rebound. Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce an interest rate decision, and the probability of a rate hike has already risen to 36%. Bitcoin has already halved from 126,000 yuan. Is it now holding low, or is it gearing up for another drop? No one knows. Moreover, BTC exchange supply has dropped to a nine-year low, but this rebound is mostly driven by leverage, not spot buying. Anyway, I don't plan to increase my position until the Fed releases its results. Hold the spot position, place a position around 65,000, and wait until the direction is clear. At times like this, rushing in means either eating big meat or being buried. Brothers, think for yourselves. #BTC #比特币 $CORE Traditional mining enterprises officially completed a benchmark transformation event in the sector! Core Scientific has fully shifted the power and data center resources accumulated in the crypto era toward AI computing power, partnering with AMD to finalize a long-term data center agreement. The AI computing power + energy infrastructure narrative continues to ferment, DATA and WLD benefit from the AI track, $CORE deeply cultivate bit grid energy infrastructure, and the long-term industry logic is highly aligned! ⚠ Key distinction: Positive news refers to medium- to long-term industry expectations; don't blindly chase highs in the short term to ride the wave of hot coins! 1. Original information compiled AMD and Core_Scientific sign long-term AI infrastructure agreement: 1. Contract plan: Starting in 2027, AMD will acquire 529 megawatts of computing capacity in U.S. data centers, with expansion options up to 2.5 GW; a 15-year long-term contract. 2. Cooperation Content: Deployment of AMD Instinct GPUs and EPYC processors in data centers, targeting large model training and enterprise AI computing power hosting. 3. Strategic significance: Core Scientific's landmark order for transforming from a BTC mining enterprise into an AI high-density data center operator. 4. Additional clause: AMD has acquired Core Scientific common stock warrants, deeply binding both parties to long-term development. 2. Deep Market Logic Analysis ✅: Three Core Highlights 1. In an era of computing power scarcity, electricity, data centers, and cooling are the real hard barriers. Early crypto mining In a bull market, capital is focused on cashing out profits. When indicators return to the breakeven zero axis, support forms, and after selling sides clear their chips, a stage bottom is often formed. In a bear market, passive stop-loss losses are the main focus, and the breakeven line instead becomes a strong resistance level, causing funds to exit early and easily forming a stage top. Currently, Bitcoin $BTC is just near the breakeven point. From a short-term small-level perspective, the probability of a downward move is higher than that of an upward move. Even if a false breakout occurs, it is highly likely to fall back again. But over a longer cycle, the profit and loss data in February and June fell into negative territory, showing a pattern of high first, low second. During the price decline, net losses did not expand in tandem, forming a bullish divergence pattern. This indicates that the prelude signals for a trend reversal are quietly brewing. Even if the price falls again, as long as the net loss figure does not surpass previous lows, it is certain that the probability of an upward move will dominate at a major level. Historically, this kind of sustained bullish divergence structure often leads to a certain round of trend reversal.🚨 $CORE’s “90% of Bitcoin Hash Power” Claim Sounds Huge. But Is the Headline Bigger Than the Reality? This is exactly the kind of crypto headline that makes retail investors stop scrolling. “90% of Bitcoin’s total hash power is participating in CoreDAO delegation.” Sounds massive, right? But before anyone starts assuming that 90% of Bitcoin miners are somehow securing the Core network, we need to understand what that number actually represents. The key question is simple: Does “participating in delegation” mean miners are actually directing 90% of Bitcoin’s computing power toward Core? Not necessarily. Critics argue that the figure refers to mining entities that have enabled or interacted with Core’s delegation mechanism—not that 90% of Bitcoin’s real-time hash power is actively securing Core consensus. That distinction is HUGE. Bitcoin miners aren't suddenly redirecting their machines to mine Core. They aren't giving Core 90% of Bitcoin's electricity or computational security. Instead, the mechanism is based on miners signaling or delegating through Bitcoin transactions. So the headline “90% of Bitcoin hash power supports Core” can create a very different impression from the underlying technical reality. And that's where the debate begins. 🧵 Here are the biggest questions I think the community should be asking: 1️⃣ How much hash power is actually being delegated on a continuous basis? The headline percentage alone doesn't tell us how much effective hash power is actively participating at any given moment. A miner enabling a delegation mechanism is not necessarily the same thing as permanently committing its full mining power. 2️⃣ What does Bitcoin hash power actually provide to Core? Bitcoin's miners continue mining Bitcoin. ⚠️ Risk warning: Virtual currency trading and speculation are illegal financial activities in our country. This post is for discussion and analysis only and does not constitute investment or staking advice. Readers should independently verify technical claims and project data before making any decisions. #DailyOrbit #停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68% Major market event unfolds as Middle East ceasefire expectations are officially realized, with WTI crude oil plummeting 8.68% in a single day. The risk premium caused by previous geopolitical conflicts is sharply unwound at once. Many traders only see the oil price crash but fail to understand how this news transmits to Federal Reserve policy and subsequently impacts the Bitcoin market. Here, I explain the entire macro chain clearly. 1. Core underlying logic behind the oil price crash The recent rise in crude oil was not driven by supply-demand tightness but by conflict panic due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As the US and Iran signal easing and temporary ceasefire expectations materialize, the market immediately sells off long positions: 1. Supply disruption alarm is lifted, trading funds quickly exit, and geopolitical premium evaporates significantly; 2. The market reprices inflation outlook: crude oil is an important inflation indicator. Sustained high oil prices would force the Fed to maintain high interest rates; with oil prices crashing, the inflationary pressure from energy eases significantly. ⚠️ Important reminder: This is only a temporary ceasefire; the fundamental situation remains unresolved. The ceasefire is fragile, and if conflict escalates again, oil prices will rebound quickly, so volatility risk remains. 2. Two diverging narratives directly affecting risk assets ✅ Positive narrative (mainstream short-term pricing logic) Sharp oil price decline → cooling inflation expectations → market lowers the probability of further Fed rate hikes, supporting rate cut expectations. Improved liquidity outlook benefits stocks, Bitcoin, and other risk assets, boosting market risk appetite. ⚠️ Potential negative narrative (often overlooked) Extreme oil price crash may also trigger concerns among some funds: is global demand outlook weakening? If the market starts pricing in recession expectations, risk-off sentiment rises, and risk assets come under pressure. In summary: The short-term dominant market driver is inflation relief logic; recession worries are currently a secondary scenario. 3. Linkage with Bitcoin market Bitcoin’s current trend essentially reflects liquidity expectations leading. Two clear scenarios: 1. Positive scenario: market trades inflation easing, US Treasury yields fall, risk appetite recovers, BTC tests upper resistance at 66800; 2. Beware of “buy the rumor, sell the fact”: the market had already priced in ceasefire benefits in advance, so after the news, the positive effect may cause a spike followed by a pullback. Key view: The oil price crash acts as a macro catalyst but cannot alone break BTC’s existing consolidation pattern. The real directional driver remains the Fed’s rate decision early Thursday. The crude oil news can only amplify volatility, not trigger a one-sided trend.I built a polymarket 5-minute prediction model, ran real-time data for 2 days, and tested it this week first BTC is quietly accumulating shares, but the most vulnerable link in the entire market is actually not with 🧐 it Have you ever noticed that while everyone is watching BTC's rise, ETH seems a bit hesitant? I checked the 4H chart, and BTC is indeed slowly grinding upward, with the structure holding quite steadily. Support between 64,700 and 65,100 has been repeatedly tested, with each pullback firmly held. Moreover, volume is moderately amplified on the upward leg, but noticeably shrinks during pullbacks—this shows buyers are actively absorbing selling pressure rather than passively holding on. Since the price can hold the area where the previous resistance has reversed, the direction with the least short-term resistance is still upward. But I want to talk about a more critical perspective: cross-market collaboration. You see, BTC is tough now, but ETH hasn't kept pace with it. This differentiation actually hints at one thing—capital hasn't spread across the board, but is more likely to concentrate in one or two leading stocks for risk-avoidance. If ETH fails to break through the key resistance for a long time, BTC's rise may just be a temporary stock game rather than a genuine incremental entry. Once BTC surges and encounters a liquidity vacuum, ETH's weakness may actually drag the market down, triggering a wave of linked pullbacks. So, my understanding is: - Bullish path: BTC continues to hold above 64k, ETH catches up with a breakout, boosting altcoin sentiment and entering a healthy market rotation. - Potential risk: If ETH remains stagnant, BTC may rally on its own and form a top divergence, which will then be pulled down by ETH's weakness. To sum up: BTC's structure is solid, but the real test is whether ETH can keep up. If you don't follow, you have to be careful of a surprise attack after you venture deep alone. - The above is only my observation record and does not constitute any operational advice. * $BTC $ETH #市场观察 Bitcoin is still grinding at 64k, has been falling for several days, and the market has entered a state of fear. $BTC #新手必看: Everything you need is here Looking at the market, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 64k for several days, with the lowest dropping near 63k or even lower. Although it rebounded above 64,000 this morning, overall it remains weak. Ethereum has pulled back in tandem, currently hovering around 1910-1920, slightly weaker than Bitcoin. Mainstream altcoins like SOL, XRP, and DOGE are also falling, with BTC's market share at 58.57%, down 0.11 percentage points from the previous day. The worst thing in the past 24 hours wasn't the price itself, but the contract liquidation. BTC long positions were cleared by $15.4 billion, and ETH was also cleared by $10.1 billion. Leverage piles up too much, and when prices drop, they step on it directly. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 29, officially entering the "fear" zone. Why the drop? Three things are pressing down First, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, so the market is pricing in in advance. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to about 36%. At Powell's first press conference after Walsh took office, the market wasn't sure what he would say—sell first, then talk. Second, the Clarity Act won't pass this week. The Senate has given priority to the Russia-Iran sanctions bill, and the vote on the crypto market structure bill will be postponed until next week or even later. A delayed good news is a bad news. Third, the chain reaction of a collective collapse in the AI hardware sector: SanDisk, Nvidia, AMD, and Intel all falling, and cryptocurrencies, along with tech stocks, are being sold off as risk assets. Key locations BTC is currently fluctuating in the 63-64k range, with resistance at 65,000 above and support at 62,000 below. Bloomberg analysts warn that if the negative news persists, even 60,000 yuan may not be held.#Storj Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring, STORJ plunges Cutting leeks, Storj Labs filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring, STORJ dropped nearly 20% in 24 hours, now about $0.06. It looks scary, but it's actually not that simple. Calling it bankruptcy is actually voluntary restructuring, not liquidation. Parent company Inveniam endorses and supports it, business continues to operate, and customer service remains unaffected. Software Engineering Director Raev said, "The business fundamentals are strong and reasonably scaled; the burden is early legacy liabilities." Simply put, historical debt is too heavy to cover normal growth, so bankruptcy procedures resolve it all at once. Most notably, Storj plans to allocate shares of the restructured company to STORJ token holders in the restructuring plan. This is rare in the crypto industry—holding utility tokens, you could theoretically become a company shareholder. But note the prerequisite: the plan must be approved by the court, and under bankruptcy law, creditors have priority over equity holders. The specific distribution, whether to take snapshots, and whether to lock up positions have all been decided yet. Additionally, this is already the third Chapter 11 for crypto companies in July—Movement Labs applied on July 15, and Bitcoin mining pool Poolin followed on July 22. BitMEX also announced a permanent closure in September. STORJ's decline is well deserved; the entire industry's sentiment is fragile. After the news broke, Upbit immediately listed it as a trading warning item and suspended deposits. Warning labels on Korean exchanges often mean stricter monitoring and potential delisting risks, with liquidity hits possibly more direct than bankruptcy itself. For holders, bankruptcy doesn't mean zero, but the risk is indeed significant. The idea of swapping tokens for equity is interesting, but whether the court approves it, how much will be allocated, and what the final plan will look like are all unknowns. This story isn't finished yet; every step the court takes in the coming months will directly affect STORJ's pricing logic.Guys, XSKHY dropped 8.92% today, currently priced at $121.47. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW (+257%) and operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW (+557%), both setting record highs. But market expectations are even higher—operating profit is expected to be 64 trillion, revenue is 84 trillion, but the actual difference is about 3.5 trillion. Three structural issues: the high proportion of HBM actually brings limited benefits from the price hikes of traditional DRAM; DRAM rose 30% in Q2, down from 60% in Q1; Long-term contract lock-in prices weakens spot elasticity. ADRs previously had a 33%-51% premium over the Korean stock market, but as the conversion quota is exhausted, the premium is rapidly fading. Key price levels: Resistance $130-$132, support $121-$122 (if it fails, $118). The company emphasized that AI investment has not slowed down, and HBM4 has already begun mass production. However, market attention has shifted to the buyback plan and the continuity of AI capital funding. Historical best-performing results still fall short of expectations, and the market is searching for a true bottom. Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $XSKHY #韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops A-shares on its first day; #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day #苹果公司市值重回全球首位, surpassing Nvidia In the short term, it favors Apple and consumer technology, while the AI chip sector should be treated differentiated at high levels. This ranking change is not just a swap of market capitalization between the two companies; it seems like funds have temporarily shifted their "high growth premium" toward "profit certainty and cash flow resilience." At Monday's close, Apple's market value was about $4.9 trillion, surpassing Nvidia for the first time since April 2025; on the same board, AI chip stocks retreated, with funds shifting toward consumer technology. The market is not offering comprehensive hedging, but rather a repricing of the crowding of a single AI narrative. Previously, chip stocks carried expectations of continued expansion in computing power investment, while Apple supported a mature ecosystem, user stickiness, and consumer fulfillment capabilities. At this time, capital shifts bets on profit quality rather than story growth. For NVIDIA, being surpassed in market value does not mean the fundamentals are weakening, but if the chip sector cannot regain incremental buying, the margin for error in high valuations on earnings expectations will significantly decrease. From here on, it will depend on whether this rotation can continue from a single day of ranking changes to a pattern of consumer technology sustaining strength and chip stocks under pressure. If it is only short-term profit-taking, the AI main theme may still quickly reclaim funds; If differentiation widens, the market's valuation standards for tech stocks will begin to change. The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.#财报观察员：OKX大师课今晚开播，带你看懂四大科技巨头财报 This earnings season faces a major test as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, the four tech giants, successively release their reports. The market sentiment has completely shifted: no longer simply chasing heavy spending on computing power expansion, the core question for capital is—can the hundred-billion-level AI investments truly deliver profits, and can the AI narrative continue to hold steady? Tonight, the OKX masterclass will start on time, breaking down the key points of the four giants' earnings reports, clarifying how US tech stock sentiment transmits to the crypto market, and providing traders with clear strategies to respond. 1. Key focus points of the four giants' earnings reports 1) Microsoft The core focus is Azure cloud growth and full-year capital expenditure guidance. Copilot commercialization is the biggest highlight. If cloud business growth falls short of expectations, the market will question the return cycle of high computing power investments, directly suppressing growth sector sentiment. 2) Meta AI is not sold externally for computing power but used to empower advertising business. The key is to track the resilience of ad revenue. If ad growth slows while capital expenditure rises, capital is likely to choose to sell off. 3) Amazon AWS cloud is the key to success or failure. Earlier AWS growth recovery ignited computing power expectations. Continued large-scale data center expansion raises market concerns about future computing power oversupply, the biggest potential downside. 4) Google (Alphabet) Past lessons are clear: previous capital expenditure increases triggered stock price drops. This time, focus on cloud business orders and capital expenditure plans, which directly affect global tech stock risk appetite. Unified key point: Capital expenditure guidance > short-term revenue data. Compared to single-quarter profits, investors fear endless increased investment that overdraws future cash flow. 2. Three market scenarios linked to Bitcoin price action Scenario 1: Earnings overall meet expectations, AI guidance neutral (baseline scenario) Cloud business growth meets targets, capital expenditure not significantly raised. US tech stocks fluctuate and consolidate; Bitcoin maintains its original range between 64000—66800, struggling to break into a sustained one-sided trend. Scenario 2: Earnings exceed expectations, AI commercialization progress impressive (bullish) Cloud revenue and AI orders significantly exceed market expectations, capital expenditure remains restrained. Market risk appetite rises, BTC tests upward resistance at 66800. ⚠️ Key caution: buy the rumor, sell the fact; do not blindly chase highs after positive news materializes. Scenario 3: Revenue misses expectations, capital expenditure raised simultaneously (bearish) AI investment continues to increase, profit improvement slow. Tech sector collectively under pressure, risk-off sentiment rises, BTC tests support at 64000; if broken effectively, look toward around 62000. BTC short-term key ranges Support: 64600 — 64000 Resistance: 66000 — 66800 3. Practical views from Coin Brother 1) Spot traders During the intense earnings window, avoid heavy bets on news. On pullbacks to support zones, consider phased entries; reject chasing highs at resistance levels. Continue holding long-term base positions, reduce frequent trading to save on fees. 2) Contract traders Volatility spikes sharply during earnings releases, with frequent two-way spikes. Strictly control leverage, prohibit heavy speculative bets. Stay mostly on the sidelines in the middle of the range, wait for effective breaks of support or resistance before following the trend. Always use stop-losses; do not hold losing positions.An Open Letter to the Market Makers Dear Market Maker Brother: I know you can see my orders. Last night at 22:18, with utmost sincerity, I opened a SNDKUSDT perpetual short at ¥1,056.53, thinking this stock has been halved twice from 2350 to 1050, so at least let me have a sip of soup, right? But what did you do? At 8:03 this morning, you precisely stopped me out by closing my 0.007 SNDK short at ¥1,163.37 【User provided trading record】. 0.007 SNDK, brother! You don’t even spare this tiny mosquito leg of meat? My position is so small you’d need a microscope to find it, is that really necessary? — A real-name complaint from a small retail trader who was precisely targeted Market Analysis: What the heck is SNDK doing? Alright, no more cursing, let’s calmly analyze what’s going on with this stock. First, the technicals — a textbook bearish case. From a historical high above 2350 in June, it has more than halved in two months. The daily chart breaks below all moving averages, MACD bearish momentum expands, RSI drops to the 30-40 oversold zone, and volume surges confirming selling pressure. Worse, on July 28, SanDisk intraday dropped over 17%, closing down 14%, with the stock price down more than 50% from the high a month ago, wiping out nearly $200 billion in market cap. The rebound to 1230 on July 28 ended with a long upper shadow candlestick signaling a top; bullish momentum was immediately exhausted. Then multiple consecutive bearish candles formed a double top and a second breakdown — a classic bearish pattern. On the hourly chart, moving averages are aligned bearish, price is consistently suppressed by MA5 and MA10, and rebound volume keeps weakening. Simply put: whoever tries to bottom fish is catching a flying knife. Next, fundamentals — triple bearish pressures. First, the rise of Chinese storage chips. ChangXin Technology’s IPO greatly exceeded expectations, raising market concerns that Chinese companies will accelerate catching up with international manufacturers, changing the global storage competition landscape. Second, shaken AI investment faith. The market is re-evaluating the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, worried that large tech companies’ AI infrastructure investments face return pressures. Third, previous gains were too large, triggering profit-taking stampedes. SanDisk’s valuation was pushed too high due to soaring AI storage demand, and now funds are cashing out. On Tuesday night, the US storage sector collectively plunged, with SanDisk and Western Digital down about 13%, Micron nearly 10%. This is not a single stock issue but a sector-wide valuation cut. Trading Direction and Strategy: What now? Directional judgment: The bearish trend remains, but chasing shorts is not advised. RSI has dropped to around 14, an extreme historical oversold level. In a normal market, this signals a rebound, but in extreme conditions, "oversold can get more oversold, bottom fishing is catching a flying knife." Key levels: · Resistance above: 1100 → 1250-1300 → 1400-1500 · Support below: 1050 (psychological level) → 1000 → 800-900 Strategy suggestions: 1. For those currently out of position: Do not bottom fish now. Wait for a right-side signal — either a volume breakout above 1200 or wait until after the August 5 earnings report. 2. For longs stuck at high prices: If your cost is above 1300, reduce your position to less than half on rebounds, set stop loss below 1050. If this level breaks, the next selling pressure may push directly to 1000. 3. For those wanting to short: You can lightly short near 1100-1150, set stop loss above 1200, target 1050 or even 1000. But remember — light position! Light position! Light position! 4. For long-term believers: If you believe AI storage is the main theme for the next decade, 1000-1150 is a good range for dollar-cost averaging. But be prepared mentally for a further 30% drop. Trading Insights: Lessons from losses First, stop loss is a mysterious art; market makers really can see your orders. I set my stop loss at ¥1,160, and the market precisely hit ¥1,163.37 before turning down 【User provided trading record】. Who else but market makers would do this? Rationally speaking, in contract trading, the exchange’s liquidity pools and stop loss clusters can be "probed" by big players. Next time, don’t set stop loss at a round number; set a weird number like ¥1,157.38, so market makers won’t bother hitting you. Second, faith is worthless in front of the trend. SNDK’s performance is outstanding — Q3 revenue $5.95 billion doubled quarter-on-quarter, data center revenue surged over 200%, gross margin above 70%. Yet the stock price still halved. Fundamentals determine long-term value; sentiment determines short-term price. In a downtrend, even the best fundamentals can’t stop a stampede. Third, contracts are not gambling, they’re probability games. You see others posting “short profits 954%” and feel great, right? But you don’t know how many times they lost. The most important thing in contract trading is position management and risk-reward ratio. I opened this short at 1056, stopped out at 1163, losing 107 points 【User provided trading record】 — stop loss was set too tight! For a product with ATR as high as 43, a 107-point stop loss being hit is highly probable. Fourth and most importantly — staying alive means having a next time. Losing 0.74U is not shameful; liquidation is 【User provided trading record】. SNDK fell from 2350 to 1050 with countless rebounds in between; every time someone chased the rally, they got buried. Don’t try to catch every move; just catch your own segment. --- Finally, to all brothers and sisters like me who were precisely targeted by market makers, one sentence: "The market is always right; the only thing wrong is our position." Let’s encourage each other.🫡 (The above content is only personal trading records and experience sharing, not investment advice. Contracts carry risks; trade cautiously.) $SNDK $BTC $ETH #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 #财报观察员：OKX大师课今晚开播，带你看懂四大科技巨头财报 #停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68% MSTR halted Bitcoin purchases and have been priced in, but the variable of "selling coins" has not yet been fully priced in. Has the market underestimated the long-tail impact of MSTR's shift from "permanent buyers" to "liquidity managers" on BTC's demand structure? Core facts of the original text: - MicroStrategy has not bought Bitcoin for four consecutive weeks. - To pay a 12% dividend, an emergency stock sale last week raised $525 million in cash, increasing cash reserves to $3.75 billion. - 840,000 BTC have a 13.9% unrealized loss on paper, with both the stock price and preferred shares falling below par. - Authorized to sell $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin in the future. Market Structure Changes: - In the past, MSTR was BTC's "rigid demand side," with each additional issuance to buy tokens providing price support. Now it has become a "conditional seller," whose selling decisions will be directly affected by BTC price fluctuations, potentially creating new supply pressures. - In terms of capital flow, MSTR's suspension combined with BTC ETF net outflows exceeding $4.1 billion in a single month means that both major institutional funding channels have shut down simultaneously. The marginal buyers of BTC have decreased, while potential sellers have increased, disrupting the supply-demand balance. - Altcoins find it harder to attract capital in this environment. If BTC fails to stabilize, speculative funds will prioritize withdrawing from high-risk assets rather than rotating into ETH or altcoins. ETF inflows to ETH have also shown no significant improvement, showing weaker performance compared to BTC. Priced portion: - The market has accepted a short-term stop buying of MSTR, as reflected in BTC's price retreating from $70,000 to around $60,000. - Concerns about ETF outflows have been partially reflected in prices, but the duration of sustained net outflows remains uncertain. Unpriced variables: - Will MSTR initiate selling when BTC falls below $55,000 to supplement liquidity? If triggered, a negative feedback loop will form. - The $1.25 billion sell authorization is the upper limit; actual execution depends on MSTR's cash flow pressure. If BTC rebounds, selling pressure may ease, but if it continues to fall, the probability of selling increases. Biased Multiple Paths and Conditions: - BTC rebounded above $65,000, MSTR's book losses narrowed, and selling incentives weakened. - ETF inflows have resumed, proving that institutional funds have not completely exited and market confidence is restored. - Improved macro liquidity, such as strengthened expectations of Fed rate cuts, is driving an overall rebound in risk assets. Bearish risk and conditions: - BTC fell below $55,000, forcing MSTR to sell part of its holdings to cover dividend payments. - Net ETF outflows have continued for over two months, with institutional holdings shifting from "long-term holding" to "swing trading." - Continuous outflow of altcoin funds and further weakening of the ETH/BTC ratio indicate a lack of market support capacity. Conclusion: MSTR suspension is old news, but "selling crypto rights" is a new tail-end risk. Risk warning: Changes in institutional capital behavior may amplify BTC volatility; pay attention to position management. $BTC $ETH I made a little profit from this BTC wave, but the process was harder than the result. I took long orders around $63,500, and when it hit $66,000, I cut it in half. Originally planning to wait for $70,000, but seeing that volume couldn't keep up, the remaining positions were left at break-even as well. The facts prove that in a volatile market, taking the money is more important than forecasting. Currently, ETF funds are flowing back again, indicating institutional buying is still present, but the gap left by previous large outflows has not been fully repaired. My plan is: hold $63,000 and remain bullish; if it falls below $60,000, look for around $60,000; only if volume increases and the price holds steady between $66,000 and $67,000 will I consider going long again. Now, I won't use high leverage in the middle of the range, because the most common outcome isn't misdirection, but sweeping both long and short positions once. Recently, when trading BTC, did you earn profits by holding onto the profits or by running fast? #BTC #Bitcoin #合约交易 This does not constitute investment advice.SK Hynix's Q2 financial report released, setting a record but unable to withstand the stock price correction. Revenue of 79.32 trillion KRW (record high, but below market expectations) Operating profit of 60.54 trillion KRW (+557% year-on-year, also below expectations) HBM4 officially enters mass production, and AI storage demand remains strong. Why the drop? Because the market trades expectations, not history. SK Hynix delivered its strongest earnings report ever, but both revenue and profit fell short of market consensus. Coupled with the previous significant cumulative stock price gains, funds chose to sell the news (positive news realized). However, what truly matters is that HBM demand has not slowed, and the AI storage boom continues. The market is correcting valuations, not the long-term logic of AI. $SKHYNIX SEC Chairman supports advancing the CLARITY Act SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that he will support Congress in advancing the CLARITY Act and provide technical assistance. The bill aims to establish a regulatory framework for the crypto market structure, with the market interpreting it as favoring BTC, ETH, and compliant US trading platforms. The core of this issue is not the immediate short-term easing, but rather the continued shift of U.S. regulatory attitude from enforcement-driven to rule-based implementation. If the bill progresses before a congressional recess, funds will be more willing to price in a "reduction in regulatory uncertainty." However, the bill still faces Democratic Party divisions and stablecoin earnings disputes. In the short term, the focus is on the speed of legislative progress rather than a single statement to chase the price increase. Source: Bitcoin Magazine #BTC #ETH #Crypto100W CLARITY's cloture this week is basically hopeless; from 8/1 to 8/7, Thune will push for the final step to initiate the review, but I advise you not to treat this straw as a good thing First, let's clarify the progress: • Thune himself has relented: there will be no final vote on the CLARITY Act this week. The 60-vote threshold for the cloture (end debate) is currently 7–9 Democratic votes away. Republicans are also opposed by Hawley and Rand Paul, and Alex Thorn of Galaxy has cut the probability of passage within the year from 50% to 30%, while Polymarket has dropped to around 33%. • But Thune hasn't completely withdrawn: his original statement was to at least get CLARITY into the House Council's process (start it), that is, during the last week of 8/1–8/7, push for motion to proceed + one cloture test, and even if it doesn't pass, at least pin the senator's position on the public record to pressure the September reconven and midterm elections. • The real program deadline isn't 8/7, but around 7/30—because a single cloture plus 30 hours of debate rights takes up more than half a week, and if you don't mention the cloture before the 8/7 recess, it's basically a shelving for the year. My honest view: 1. Pushing the launch ≠ the positive news is fulfilled, which feels more like political staging Thune wants the Democrats to show their votes and industry backers to see that the GOP is not lying flat. Below 60 votes, market structure certainty remains uncertain, and exchange/DeFi _builder will have to endure another year in the SEC-CFTC gray zone. 2. In the short term, expectations for cryptocurrency prices are dulled House approval in 2025, Spring Committee approval in 2026, and the 616-page merger draft in July—none of these have allowed BTC/ETH to emerge from an independent bull market, as the market has already priced in the "unlikely to be implemented within the year." If a forced cloture test ticket runs before 8/7 fails, it's most likely a bearish exhaustion fluctuation, not a crash; Conversely, if the number suddenly reaches 60 votes (very probability), it is considered an unexpected pulse. 3. The ones truly affected are the primary market and local U.S. project teams Without CLARITY, whether the token is security or commodity still depends on the mood of the enforcers. US compliant exchanges dare not list new assets, and capital continues to flow offshore, Dubai, or EU MiCA. If this bill drags on for a year, the "home advantage" of the U.S. ETH/DeFi ecosystem will depreciate for a year. In trading, I do two things ◦ Do not bet on the market in advance; if ETH/BTC surges due to rumors before 8/7, do not chase and wait for test ticket results ◦ Treat 8/1–8/7 as a macro events week: Volatility amplified but focus on US stocks + liquidity, not the Washington playbook Rebound ≠ reversal, $ETH surged 4%, $QQQ was dazzlingly green, and the market was waiting—whoever showed weakness first would set today's tone. Look at the numbers $BTC 65,283 +1.45%　$ETH 1,952 +4.14% $QQQ -1.12%　$SPY +0.10%　$IBIT -0.82% $DXY -0.15%　$GLD +0.10% Hormuz and crude oil are still adding variables to inflation expectations, while the shadow of US Treasury yields and Fed tightening continues to weigh on valuations. The dollar is not a backdrop; a simple adjustment of the exchange rate line can disrupt the rhythm of $QQQ$SPY. Today, it's not surprising if any switch gets touched on this plate. $ETH is clearly more elastic than $BTC, short-term risk appetite is rising, but $QQQ is sinking downward, and money is shrinking into defense. $IBIT Weaker than spot $BTC, a weakness in ETFs means the spot market isn't that strong; $DXY Only when risk assets can breathe a sigh of relief can they catch their breath, but once tightened, they quickly turn hostile; $GLD Still quietly rising, haven't fully withdrawn safe-haven funds, don't be fooled by the surface buzz.Russia's Biggest Bank Is Building Crypto Infrastructure. Take a Second to Think About That. Sberbank, Russia's state-controlled bank that holds roughly one-third of all Russian banking assets, plans to have crypto trading infrastructure and a digital depository live by December 1. The wallet and custody system will integrate directly into Sberbank Online and SberInvestments. New Russian crypto regulations take effect September 1, and Sberbank is building to meet that regulatory window. This is worth more attention than it's getting in Western crypto media. When a government-majority-owned bank with over 100 million customers builds crypto infrastructure, it signals that digital asset adoption is now a geopolitical calculation, not just a financial one. Russia's motivation is partly about sanctions-era settlement rails that bypass traditional correspondent banking systems. The structure matters. Sberbank's depository will record crypto ownership mostly off-chain, processing most transactions outside the underlying blockchain. Users get exposure to crypto prices without holding keys. It's the TradFi custody playbook applied to digital assets. Not DeFi, not self-sovereign, but mass-scale onboarding. Worth noting: public crypto trading will be limited to assets meeting strict liquidity and market cap thresholds. Practically, that means BTC and ETH as the primary accessible assets at launch. A major state bank going live with crypto by year-end isn't a footnote. Share your thoughts in the comments 👇兄弟们，XSOXL今天又跌9.06%，现价103.22美元。三倍杠杆叠加三层利空共振——中国长鑫低价冲击DRAM市场（苹果已申请采购）、韩国将个股杠杆ETF门槛提高至3000万韩元引发去杠杆抛售、市场开始质疑巨头数千亿美元AI投入能否转化为利润。 XSOXL跟踪三倍做多半导体ETF SOXL，前三大持仓美光、英伟达、AMD。SOXL当前技术评级“强力卖出”，所有均线全数看空。现价103.22美元，正测试101-102美元支撑区。上方阻力113-115美元，125美元需站稳才能确认反弹。SOXL技术评级“强力卖出”，12个均线全部看空，加速下跌阶段通常不是底。下跌趋势中不要轻易“抄底”——三倍杠杆在下跌时放大三倍亏损。盯着费城半导体指数和存储芯片龙头走势，比盯着K线更有价值。个人盘面观点分析与市场信息整理，非投资建议。 $BTC $ETH $XSOXL #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 #财报观察员：OKX大师课今晚开播，带你看懂四大科技巨头财报 #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 The legislative window for the U.S. Senate Clear Act is rapidly narrowing, with Galaxy Digital lowering the probability of the bill passing in 2026 to 30%, and market pricing has fallen to a historic low of 32%. According to Senate rules of procedure, after initiating a full house review, a complete process including a vote on dismissal debates and amendment deliberation must be completed. Both parties must reach consensus at least by the end of July before the vote can be completed before the adjournment. But the Senate agenda has long been crowded with priorities like sanctions against Russia and budget bills, and pushing clear legislation requires time to squeeze other legislation. Unless a unanimous consent process exempts the process, following the usual path is almost too late. Although Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, there are already senators who clearly oppose it, and reliable votes in favor are only about 50. The bill requires 60 votes to break the status quo, meaning it must win Democratic support. But as we analyzed earlier, Democratic senators involved in the negotiations collectively stated that the latest draft still has many issues and is unlikely to relent. Judging from the current situation, the probability of the bill being implemented before the recess is relatively low. The Senate majority leader has publicly stated that they do not believe all legislative procedures can be completed before the summer recess. If delayed until September, the risk of the bill being postponed until next year will increase significantly. But there is a low-probability scenario: if both parties can quickly reach a compromise on the core issue in the coming days, the unanimous consent process could accelerate the vote. Attitudes toward the bill within the industry are also clearly divided, with the Wall Street camp also splitting.SanDisk has recently experienced a significant drop, with a cumulative decline exceeding 50% in July alone. This is part of a broader valuation sell-off across the semiconductor and AI industry chains, not just an issue specific to SanDisk itself. The main reasons are: 1. Overall profit-taking in the AI sector * This year, AI storage, HBM, and SSD concepts have surged excessively. * Investors are beginning to realize profits. * SanDisk's previous gains far outpaced most chip stocks, so its correction is more severe. 2. Market concerns about overheating AI investments * Investors are starting to question whether the multibillion-dollar AI capital expenditures by large tech companies over the next few years will yield sufficient returns. * The entire chip sector is facing valuation compression. 3. Emotional impact from the rise of Chinese memory chips * The listing of Chinese memory manufacturer CXMT has triggered market worries. * Although SanDisk mainly focuses on NAND and CXMT on DRAM, which are not exactly the same track, funds are selling first and asking questions later. What about the technical perspective? Generally: * A 20%-30% pullback = normal correction * A 30%-50% pullback = deep correction * A pullback over 50% = close to bear market level correction SanDisk has now entered the third category. But there is a key distinction: If the decline is caused by deteriorating performance, it is called a trend reversal; If the decline is due to overvaluation, it is called valuation reversion. Currently, the market is mostly trading on the second logic. Many institutions still maintain relatively high target prices, and the market debate focuses on valuation rather than whether the company is about to collapse. My outlook for the next few months: Scenario 1 (about 60% probability) * A major correction within a bull market * 1-3 months of volatile bottoming * Strengthening again with earnings reports and AI demand validation Scenario 2 (about 30% probability) * Entering a long-term sideways market * Taking six months to a year to digest valuation * No more crazy rallies like before Scenario 3 (about 10% probability) * Significant slowdown in AI capital expenditures * Storage prices peak * Entering a true cycle I will focus on observing: ✅ Nvidia data center orders ✅ AI capital expenditures from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon ✅ HBM and enterprise SSD prices ✅ Federal Reserve rate cut progress As long as these indicators do not deteriorate significantly, I will view the current situation more as: A major shakeout within the 2026 AI storage bull market, rather than a complete end to the industry logic. Personally, I believe SanDisk's valuation is too high, and a return to its original valuation is very likely $SNDK On July 29, breaking news: Global storage leader $SKHY SK Hynix released its complete Q2 financial report, achieving a record high. However, both revenue and profit fell short of market consensus, triggering panic selling across the sector. 1. Impressive Financial Reports but Huge Gaps Between Expectations 1. Profit explosion: Q2 operating profit soared 557% to 60.5 trillion Korean won (equivalent to 41.62 billion USD), compared to only 9.2 trillion won in the same period last year. The effectiveness of AI storage dividends is visible to the naked eye. 2. Both core indicators fell short: - Operating profit was expected by the market to be 64 trillion KRW, but there is a clear gap in reality; - Total quarterly revenue was 79 trillion KRW, far below the institution's estimate of 84 trillion KRW. 2. Core Logic of the Crash: HBM Deployment Becomes a Short-Term Drag The Market's Core Pricing Logic Is Highly Contradictory: SK Hynix leads the industry in high-end HBM computing power storage chip capacity, but the main driver of this round of rally is consumer-grade memory chips. The high HBM ratio caused the company to miss the excess profits brought by this round of conventional chip price increases. This fueled pessimistic expectations: the super upcycle of storage driven by AI infrastructure may lead to a temporary slowdown in growth. 3. Direct feedback from the secondary market market: Negative financial reports quickly spread across the entire US stock storage token sector: 1. $SKHY: U.S. stocks closed down 9%, then fell another 9% after hours, marking a double short-term sell-off; 2. Sector-Following Falling Stocks: SNDK SanDisk and MU Micron Technology both fell over 4%[Calm Review] US tech stocks' pullback triggers chain liquidation, BTC falls below 63,000! Is it a shakeout or a peak? Bitcoin (BTC): Currently quoted at ~$63,200, down about 2.3%~2.7% in 24 hours, breaking below key support levels intraday. Liquidation data: In the past 24 hours, total liquidations by long positions across the network exceeded $510 million, with leveraged chips experiencing concentrated clearing. Three core driving factors 1. US tech stocks and AI concept sell-offs drive tech giants (Alphabet, Tesla, etc.)'s latest financial reports show that massive AI infrastructure capital expenditure (CapEx) is squeezing free cash flow. The U.S. tech sector and Asian chip stocks plunged, and risk-off sentiment quickly spread to high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. 2. Pressure on macro liquidity and hawkish revaluation led to a significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields (10-year yield rose to ~4.68%), and the US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened. The rise in risk-free rates has increased the discount rate for high-duration risk assets, and concerns over tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve continue to weigh on market valuations. 3. Bullish liquidations trigger a "chain reaction" As BTC fell below the $64,700 intensive order zone, a large number of long stop-losses and forced liquidations were triggered. Liquidation selling combined with slowed spot trading led to short-term prices quickly seeking support. Key technical positions and short-term strategies Key BTC Ranges: Resistance above: $65,800 - $66,200 (Concentrated short liquidation liquidity zone and short-term moving average resistance). Support below: $62,800 - $63,000 (strong short-term support); if breached, be cautious of a downward push to the $60,500 - $61,000 area. Focus on future focus tech giants' earnings reports and AI capital expenditure guidance: Watching whether the U.S. earnings quarter's performance can ease market concerns about risk assets. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (FOMC) and macro signals: Focus on the impact of expected interest rate path on the dollar and Treasury yields. Trading advice: Spot investors should remain rational and pay attention to opportunities to buy strong consensus chips at low prices; Futures traders must strictly control leverage to prevent liquidation risks caused by sharp fluctuations.BTC Dominance Is at 59%. Altseason Isn't Dead, But It May Look Different. Bitcoin dominance hit 59% this week. The CoinMarketCap altseason index is sitting at 50/100. Not in altseason territory, not firmly out of it. A coin flip, which is an accurate description of where market sentiment actually is right now. The "altseason is cancelled" take has been building since spring. Bitcoin-to-altcoin trading pair volumes have collapsed to around 50 in June, roughly half of 2021 levels. Capital isn't rotating out of BTC the way it used to. Part of that is structural: ETFs have created a new class of BTC holder who doesn't cycle into alts. Part of it is narrative: this cycle hasn't produced the same wave of new retail money chasing the next token up. That said, things are moving in pockets. Ondo is up 26% in seven days on tokenized real-world asset momentum. ETH is outpacing BTC right now. Ether.fi and Ethena are holding up in a soft DeFi environment. It's not that nothing is working, it's that nothing is working all at once. Whether a broad altseason is still possible may come down to BTC dominance breaking below 55%. Analysts keep pointing to that as the rotation trigger. We're four percentage points away. Doesn't feel imminent. But this market has closed four-point gaps fast before. Share your thoughts in the comments 👇#Korean stocks plunge 8%, Changxin tops A-shares on debut On the same day, two markets showed completely opposite extreme trends: on one side, A-shares new stocks soared to legendary heights, while on the other, the Korean market plunged triggering circuit breakers. Behind this is a complete upheaval in the global memory chip landscape. Here's a detailed explanation of the causes and effects. 1. On the A-share side: Changxin tops A-share market cap on listing On July 27, Changxin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market with an issue price just above 8 yuan. The stock surged continuously from the open, with a daily increase of up to 465%, closing with a total market cap of 3.28 trillion yuan, surpassing ICBC and Moutai to firmly hold the top spot in A-share market capitalization. 1. Trading data sets historical records Single-day turnover exceeded 140 billion yuan, the highest ever for a single stock in A-shares. Institutional investors, retail investors, and northbound funds all rushed in to grab shares. Winning investors earned over 20,000 yuan per lot. The entire market is betting on the domestic memory track. 2. Changxin's current industry position The global DRAM memory market was previously monopolized by three companies: Samsung 38%, SK Hynix 29%, Micron 22%, together controlling over 90% of the global share, with pricing and capacity controlled overseas. Changxin's current global share has risen to 8%, ranking fourth worldwide; after expansion completion by the end of 2026, monthly capacity will reach 350,000 12-inch wafers, nearly matching Micron's capacity. Three years ago, Changxin's capacity was less than a fraction of Micron's, and its catching-up speed has exceeded overseas capital expectations. 3. Massive funds raised from listing accelerate expansion and R&D This IPO raised tens of billions, all dedicated to two things: building new fabs to expand DRAM capacity to fill domestic server, computer, and mobile memory gaps; and increasing investment in HBM high-end AI memory R&D to break Samsung and Hynix's exclusive advantage in AI high-bandwidth memory. Another key industry signal: recent domestic cloud vendor tenders show Changxin's DDR5 chip prices matching or slightly exceeding Korean original manufacturers for the first time. Domestic government and enterprise computing power procurement prioritizes domestic alternatives, locking in stable long-term orders. 2. Korean market: single-day plunge over 8% triggers circuit breaker, memory giants collapse collectively On July 28, Korean stocks plunged sharply at open, with the KOSPI index dropping over 8% intraday, triggering a level-1 circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes for risk control. This is the 8th circuit breaker in the Korean stock market this year, showing extreme volatility. - Samsung Electronics fell 13.39% in a single day, the largest drop in 18 years; - SK Hynix plunged 14.65%, with stock price nearly halved from June highs; These two memory leaders account for 40% weight in the KOSPI index. Their combined sell-off dragged down the entire market. Four reasons for the Korean stock market plunge 1. Underlying panic: Changxin's listing breaks Korean firms' permanent monopoly expectations In the past two years, the super cycle of memory chip price hikes saw profits all earned by Samsung and SK Hynix, with capital betting on their eternal global memory monopoly. But Changxin's large-scale expansion after IPO leads the market to predict a significant increase in global DRAM supply over the next 2-3 years, ending the two-year memory price rally early and invalidating Korean firms' super-profit logic. Korean local media collectively voiced concerns, institutions lowered long-term profit targets for Samsung and Hynix, and foreign investors began mass selling Korean semiconductor shares seeing the rise of domestic memory. 2. External catalyst: global AI sector valuations cool down collectively Overnight, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 5%, with Nvidia and Micron all retreating. The market worries that global cloud vendors will cut AI computing power procurement budgets, and HBM high-end memory demand growth is below expectations. 3. Structural flaws in the Korean market amplify the decline The Korean stock market is highly concentrated, with the economy heavily tied to semiconductors; foreign ownership is very high, so when overseas risk appetite declines, foreign funds sell Korean stocks immediately; additionally, local retail investors heavily use leverage, triggering forced liquidations on price drops, causing a vicious cycle of selling and accelerating the index collapse. 4. Hidden industry contradiction: Korean firms voluntarily abandon general memory, ceding market to Changxin In recent years, Samsung and SK Hynix shifted 70% of advanced capacity to higher-margin HBM high-end memory, significantly reducing DDR memory capacity for ordinary computers and servers, causing a global supply gap in general memory. This was a voluntary choice by Korean firms, but Changxin seized the window to expand capacity, filling the general memory supply gap and directly taking orders from domestic and Southeast Asian terminal manufacturers. Foreign investors believe Korean firms lost basic market share, weakening long-term competitiveness. 3. Putting these two together, understand the global chip landscape reshuffle Many think Changxin's 8% share is too small to crash the Korean market, but capital markets are betting not on current performance but on industry influence over the next 5 years: 1. Pricing power redistribution Previously, memory price hikes and cuts were controlled by Samsung and Hynix's production adjustments; now with Changxin as a stable supplier, the overseas big three can no longer arbitrarily control production and prices, and memory costs for end electronic products will gradually decline. 2. Clear differentiation of track strength - Domestic: the entire memory upstream and downstream benefits, including wafer equipment, lithography materials, and memory packaging and testing, will gain orders following Changxin's expansion. The long-term logic of domestic substitution remains unchanged; - Korea: the economy's single reliance on memory exposes huge risks, and the stock market and semiconductor sector will continue to fluctuate unless Samsung and Hynix pull ahead with absolute technical advantages in the HBM track. 3. Distinguishing short-term and long-term trends In the short term, memory chip sector volatility will continue to increase, with domestic funds accumulating domestic memory while foreign capital continues to avoid Korean semiconductors; In the long term, global memory shifts from a "three-giant oligopoly" to "four-way competition," with Changxin's market share steadily increasing annually, representing a highly certain domestic technology mainline. 4. Personal practical views 1. Avoid chasing Changxin in the short term; there will be volatility digesting valuation; 2. Avoid Korean memory-related stocks in the short term; industry growth logic has loosened, and the downtrend is not over; 3. Focus on two data points going forward: Changxin's monthly capacity ramp-up progress and domestic server manufacturers' domestic memory procurement ratio. If these continue to rise, the domestic memory track still has big potential; 4. AI high-end HBM is the next main battlefield. If Changxin can quickly break through high-end memory technology, it will further squeeze Samsung and Hynix's global survival space ETH Is Up 11% in a Week. The Story Behind It Is Bigger Than the Price. Ethereum has outperformed the broader market over the last seven days, climbing roughly 11% while most other large caps were flat or negative. ETH spot ETF inflows are a big part of the reason, with $96 million added in the first three trading days of last week alone. Almost all of that came through one product: BlackRock's ETHA, which absorbed $45 million on a single day. The contrast with Grayscale's original ether trust is stark. Grayscale charges 2.5% versus BlackRock's 0.25%, and the market has been voting with capital ever since. Grayscale's fund has bled $5.3 billion since launch. What this signals beyond the price: institutional allocators aren't just dabbling in ETH exposure. They're actively managing fee costs, which means they're treating this as a real asset allocation, not a speculative side bet. That's a different kind of participation than crypto has seen before. The open question is whether this ETF-driven bid holds. ETH's run has happened against a backdrop where only 29 of the top 100 coins are trading above their 50-day averages. It's leading a market that hasn't fully committed. If today's Fed decision leans hawkish, ETH's gains are an early casualty. If it holds through the noise, that says something. Share your thoughts in the comments 👇Morgan Stanley launched ETH Trust (MSSE) + SOL Trust (MSOL) on the same day Major developments on Wall Street have landed: Morgan Stanley is simultaneously advancing applications for the MSSE Ethereum Trust and MSOL Solana Trust. The annual fees for these two products are only 0.14%, setting a new market low for current fees, and they also have built-in staking yield mechanisms. The fee rate is 0.14%, directly lower than similar competitors like Grayscale and BlackRock; The ETH trust plan requires staking 50%-80% of the position. The SOL trust can stake up to all tokens, with 95% of the staking yield returned to fund holders; Relying on JPMorgan's extensive wealth advisor network, it opens compliant holding channels for traditional U.S. asset management clients. Crypto ETFs have officially entered the era of price wars The dividends of BTC spot ETFs are gradually fading, and institutions are beginning to compete for shares in the ETH and SOL sectors. The combination of low fees + pledge yields aims to seize existing funds, marking a new stage in the industry from competing over whether approval can be obtained to competing for product competitiveness. This is a groundbreaking narrative for SOL There are many competitors in the Ethereum spot ETF track, while SOL compliant trust products are relatively few. Morgan Stanley's entry means mainstream Wall Street is no longer focusing solely on BTC and ETH; second-layer public chain assets are recognized through formal financial channels. Positive news and risks coexist Long-term Positive: Opening up compliant entry channels for traditional overseas funds; once the SEC approves, it will bring sustained incremental capital expectations. Short-term risks: This is currently only the application stage, with a review period before official listing. This news is a long-term expectation, so don't rush to chase gains in the short term. My independent opinion: This news is positive for the medium- to long-term industry, but don't overestimate the short-term market's driving power. ETF expectation speculation has always followed the principle of buying expectations and selling facts; the true core of price determination remains the Federal Reserve's liquidity and regulatory legislation. Sector differentiation will continue: targets with compliant ETF narratives will continue to attract funds that outpace small-cap coins without formal financial products. Key follow-up tracking: SEC review progress and whether similar competitors are following suit to lower rates. What do you think: as ETH and SOL compliant trusts continue to advance, will funds gradually divert from BTC to mainstream Layer 2 public chains?The Fed Decides Today. Crypto Isn't Watching the Rate. $BTC Today's FOMC decision is almost certainly a hold at 3.50-3.75%. All 104 economists in a Reuters poll agree. The CME FedWatch tool gives it 64.2% probability. Bitcoin already knows this, which is partly why it's been trading sideways around $63,400, down about 2% since yesterday. So what's actually worth watching? The press conference. Whether Warsh's forward guidance sounds even slightly hawkish matters more than the rate itself. That 35.8% probability of a surprise hike baked into derivatives pricing tells you some traders aren't fully convinced. If the tone shifts at all toward tightening, expect the dollar to firm up and risk assets to react accordingly. What's interesting is how calm crypto has been heading into this FOMC. BTC held near $65,000 for most of last week before slipping. No pre-decision panic. Either the market has matured, or it's just exhausted from months of chop. Both are plausible. The real tell might come from ETH. It's up roughly 11% over seven days, leading the large caps heading into today's announcement. If it holds that outperformance after the Fed speaks, that's a meaningful signal on risk appetite. If it gives it back quickly, the liquidity picture is still fragile under the surface. Share your thoughts in the comments 👇$BEAT After observing for a long time, every time the X Maker releases at the one-minute moving average, there is a 700,000 sell order lasting two to three minutes, so it's highly likely the X Maker is selling and then following the short wave. The advantage of this coin is that it rises and keeps going down, and the price goes the same way. I won't provide liquidity in the current sideways market. Either go down and short, or pull up to short you. I won't enter the market in a sideways move. ✓ Institutional investors, quickly break out of the trend!$SNDK fell from 2400 to 1000, I can't say if it's a good bottom to buy Opened the store in the morning, after the morning rush, I leaned against the cashier counter and checked my phone. Opened the SNDK candlestick chart, glanced at it, from the historical high of over 2400 a month ago, it has dropped all the way to around 1100 today, halved with some twists. But the problem is that the root cause of this decline is not emotional fluctuation, but fundamental concerns. SanDisk's revenue in yesterday's earnings report missed expectations, and management's shipment guidance is being revised downward; end demand is worse than everyone thought. It dropped yesterday and fell another 14% today, down more than 50% since July. 1150-1200 is a previous dense trading area, and today there was indeed high volume at this level, indicating some are bottom-fishing here. But if the support near 1100 doesn't hold, the next support is 1000 or even 800-900. Some say that even if fundamentals are bad, technical oversold conditions will lead to a rebound. That's true, but whether this rebound is temporary or a reversal, no one knows. Oversold means it has fallen too far, but falling too far doesn't mean it will immediately bounce back; it might rebound for two days and then fall again. There are plenty of opportunities to make money, no need to risk this one. Eat and drink well, better than bottom-fishing. Oversold does not mean the bottom is reached; it can get even more oversold. #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 The market in these two hours was not one-sided: BTC surged to around 64.2k and then returned to 63,734, ETH was about 1,907; BTC's funding rate was about 0.0048%. Bulls were not crowded, but selling pressure above 64k was not truly resolved. After seeing the BTC structure improve, Unity Academy canceled its previous short position plan and planned to enter manually, but did not provide full conditions, so it can only be considered a directional change. Victorious in the champion chart is more specific: buy long at 63,357, stop loss at 63,013, take profit at 63,870. The target has already been reached, and chasing further will not be the original trade. Sanma regards 64,588 as the first resistance level, and around 63,458 as short-term support; His original post includes a high-leverage strategy, only the price is retained here, and position size advice is not used. On the other hand, Dr. Profit continued to remind most altcoins that they resemble short-term gambling, and CakeBaba also regarded tonight's interest rate event as the main variable. The Federal Reserve's official website schedule confirms the July 28–29 meeting, and risk reduction before events is more important than guessing direction. There were no new opportunities worth chasing this round: Unity Academy mentioned long positions in ARB, SPCX, SOL, but the relationship between stop-loss and target positions was unclear; SOON, BANK, and others only go long without expiration conditions, so they are all abandoned. Next, let's see if the 63.35k–63.6k can hold; A rebound above 64.2k is considered continuous; a break below 63k would weaken the rebound structure. #BTC #ETH These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment advice On the day Brent broke $100, I left a question: "Is $100 the pulse top or the range bottom? Channel data and the negotiation table will provide the answer." Now the answer is here: WTI down -8.68% in a single day, closing at 82.62, a 12% pullback from the high, Brent retreating to around 88 — the pulse top is confirmed. Looking back at this complete pricing cycle, it's textbook: conflict escalation → dual channel risk premium → $100 threshold → inflation trade suppresses rate cut expectations → ceasefire expectations → premium clearance. I've analyzed each step with everyone in the comments; now the chain is closed. Three points worth mentioning next: First, the market's prediction of a ceasefire pricing before August 31 has reached 75%, but "before moving from verbal to written, every pullback comes with reversible footnotes" — this phrase is from the original topic and is the best risk warning of this round; Second, the oil price pullback directly frees the FOMC's hands, Thursday early morning's policy space is much looser than two weeks ago, Dow +0.51%, precious metals and crypto in Asia-Pacific early trading are strengthening simultaneously, indicating decoupling from oil prices; Third, technically, 83.10 is support, with 87.2-89.7 as Fibonacci resistance zone, failure to rebound means a new lower central pivot. Inflation trade recedes, suppressed risk assets begin to reclaim their own narrative. This week's FOMC, the stage returns to interest rates. #停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68% Big money is quietly entering the market—have you noticed? In the short term, BTC still has a chance to continue rebounding, with a target to watch above $70,000. But from a cyclical perspective, I still believe the bear market pattern is not completely over, and long-term attention remains on a pullback opportunity near $50,000. I will judge based on the following First, during the U.S. stock market correction, $BTC showed a different kind of resilience. Recently, US stocks have declined, and BTC has often followed the sell-off, but while AI and tech stocks have pulled back sharply, BTC has not experienced a simultaneous crash, indicating the market is reassessing BTC's value. Second, BTC's safe-haven attributes are strengthening. With geopolitical conflicts, energy price fluctuations, and increasing global uncertainty, traditional funds are beginning to seek new safe-haven assets, and BTC is gradually taking on the narrative of "digital gold." Third, I usually focus on two signals: the position movements of micro-strategies and the direction of Federal Reserve policy. As one of the most aggressive BTC institutions in the market, MicroStrategy's buying, financing, and position changes often represent some institutional capital's judgments of BTC's long-term value. The Fed's moves determine global liquidity. If the rate-cutting cycle begins and funding costs fall, risk assets will see a better environment; However, if inflation fluctuates again and the Fed maintains high interest rates or even signals rate hikes, the market will remain under pressure. In the short term, capital sentiment recovery, ETF capital inflows, and institutional positioning may all drive BTC to challenge the $70,000 mark again. In the long term, I remain cautious, believing this rally is more like a rebound in a bear market. The real large-cycle opportunity requires waiting for liquidity to fully shift. So my strategy is simple Expect a rebound, but don't blindly chase highs I will focus on micro-strategies, ETF capital movements, as well as changes in Federal Reserve policy and US dollar liquidity If the market panics again, the area around $50,000 may be the more noteworthy area. BTC is shifting from a "high-volatility risk asset" to "digital gold," but cycles never change due to sentiment.July 29, 2026: Crypto Market Analysis (Reference for point positions is valid only on the same day) Source: Da Dart I won't chase this bottoming rebound; first, let's see if 64,200 can truly be broken up. The weekly chart hasn't closed yet, but the gains from the previous three weeks have already been clearly retraced, and overall the market is still recovering within a bearish structure. Last night, the price completed a bottom and recovery, with a long lower shadow bullish candlestick forming on the daily chart, indicating support below; However, throughout the rebound, the total holdings have generally decreased by a net decrease, mostly due to short-covering recovery, with no sign of continued new capital flowing in the process. 【BTC】 Resistance above: 64,500, 64,800, 65,100 Support levels: 63,800, 63,400, 62,600 64200 is currently the key core level. Only by holding above 64,200 can the price continue to test 64,500; After breaking through 64,500, look at 64,800 and 65,100. Before it holds steady, the rebound should be treated as a recovery first, without rushing to treat the long lower shadow as a trend reversal. 63,600 marks the dividing line between bullish and bearish on the daily chart. If the 64,200 rally fails and falls back below 63,600, it means this bottoming recovery has not turned into a true recovery. First, watch 63,400 below; if it falls, then guard against 62,600. The current focus is not on how far the rebound can go, but on whether there are new positions and trading volume when it reaches 64,200. Rising prices and continued position withdrawals only indicate that the bears are covering back; Only when prices stabilize and positions recover healthily can recovery be of better quality. The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 $SOL Morgan Stanley launched spot Ethereum and Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with sponsorship fees of only 0.14%, currently the lowest in the market, and includes staking reward terms. This move marks a transition from Bitcoin to the maturity of institutional product offerings, offering traditional financial investors a low-cost way to access high-performance Layer-1 blockchains. Including staking yields is especially critical because it enables the fund to generate additional returns, narrowing the performance gap between holding ETFs and directly holding the underlying assets. By outperforming existing competitors like Grayscale and Franklin Templeton in fees, Morgan Stanley is actively seeking substantial liquidity in the wealth management channel. This development may force other asset managers to adjust their fee structures and accelerate altcoin inclusion in standard diversified portfolios, potentially driving sustained demand growth for ETH and SOL without being affected by retail speculation.#停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68% I am the mid-term intelligence guy. This time WTI $CL dropped 8.68% in a single day, essentially a concentrated refund of the "war premium"—with the US and Iran pressing pause on mutual attacks, the market has wiped out the more than twenty dollars of "panic tax" above $100 in one day. But I only focus on three things: First, the "mutual attacks" have stopped, not the Strait navigation; the daily number of ships passing through Hormuz remains in single digits, freight rates are still stuck high, the physical bottleneck is unresolved; Second, OECD inventories are close to the lowest since 2003, global destocking is ongoing, the supply hard gap cannot be filled by a mere statement; Third, the front-month spread hasn't collapsed, indicating institutions are holding "repeated options." So this big bearish candle is an emotional purge, not a trend reversal. Short-term support is at $82; to truly open a downside space, we need oil tankers to actually return to the Strait and OPEC+ production increases to reach ports. Otherwise, if either side turns hostile, the premium will quickly surge back.$ETH Today, the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was slightly lowered, with a basket of non-US currencies showing mixed performance. Currently, the market is closely watching the Fed's interest rate decision in the early morning. Exchange rate fluctuations reflect shifts in global currency expectations and indirectly affect USDT premiums and capital risk appetite. Key distinction: The central parity rate is the official guide rate and does not correspond to the offshore real-time exchange rate. Do not overly amplify expectations based solely on single-day price levels; the macro main trend should still be based on the US dollar index's direction! I. Original News Compilation [Bijie News | 2026.07.29 Interbank Foreign Exchange Central Parity] USD/RMB: 6.7899, down 29 pips EUR/RMB: 7.7175, up 56 pips HKD/RMB: 0.86589, down 3.8 pips GBP/RMB: 9.0052, down 89 pips AUD/RMB: 4.7269, down 111 pips CAD/RMB: 4.8034, up 22 pips 100 JPY/ RMB: 4.1393, down 34 pips RMB/Russian Ruble: 11.6107, up 892 pips New Zealand/RMB: 3.9182, up 42 pips RMB/MYR: 0.60279, up 7.5 pips Swiss Franc/RMB: 8.2729, down 96 pips Singapore Dollar/RMB: 5.2444, down 70 pips II. Market Transmission Logic Breakdown 1. Core interpretation: The USD/RMB central parity rate was slightly lowered, This represents a moderate strengthening of the RMB at the official guidance rate. In the short term, it is beneficial for stabilizing domestic cross-border markets On July 29, the eldest brother and second brother are within the day Short-term rallies are mostly traps for inducing bulls; if you rush to follow the trend, you may end up at the starting point of a pullback Even if the main cycle maintains an upward trend, the market does not always rise and never fall. After consecutive ralls, technical corrections and corrections are an inevitable pattern of market operations The heavy pressure range above has clearly emerged; do not let the inertia of thinking driven by continuous rally interfere with your judgment. Maintain a calm mindset, patiently wait for the right timing to position in the resistance zone, and seize the trading opportunities brought by this round of short-term adjustment Big brother countered Tan at 64,500 and 65,200 under pressure, with downside targets at 63,000 and 62,000 Second brother opposed Tan in 1930 and 1960, under pressure on Kong, looking down at 1850 and 1780 $BTC $ETH #韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day Ondo Finance originally planned to build its own RWA public chain, but now it's completely overturned and switched to a private high-speed trading network running perpetual contracts. The most profitable companies in the RWA sector are no longer developing public blockchains and are focusing on private infrastructure. This speaks volumes: institutional clients want speed and certainty, not decentralization slogans. The boundaries between DeFi and TradFi are becoming increasingly blurred.Stockpiling $HYPE again? After allegedly multiple sell-offs of HYPE, the a16z-related entity seems to have resumed building positions In the past 8 hours, a total of 132,056.65 HYPE tokens worth $7.335 million were issued from major exchanges, with an average price of $55.54; the same address transferred a total of 398,000 HYPE tokens to exchanges starting from 07:15, equivalent to approximately $24.89 million Wallet address: 0xb5E4d21240e9356caFc3a1261d10383f62DFc24e It took me a week to thoroughly investigate the worst hit companies in the AI sector. When the market is panicking, it's often a good time to turn the stone. I set three strict standards: (1) The average ROE over the past three years ≥ 15%, with consistently positive operating cash flow—a company that makes real money (2) Having a real moat—patents, customer stickiness, and economies of scale should be at least one of the same (3) Valuations have fallen below the historical range below negative 1 standard deviation, or PEG <1 After screening thousands of A-share and US stock companies, only these 9 caught my eye (ranked by moat strength + valuation attractiveness): 1. NVIDIA — No one can shake the moat of the CUDA ecosystem. Forward PE has reached 18.7 times. Would you have imagined that price two years ago? Five-year low. 2. Broadcom — ASIC custom chip + network chip double kill, gross margin 76%, PEG only 0.42. The key point is that Q2 free cash flow reached $10.3 billion, up 60% year-on-year, earning real money. 3. Zhongji Xuchuang — Global leader in optical modules, ROE soared from 16% to 43%, unstoppable demand for 800G/1.6T. On July 28, it dropped 14% in one day, making it the most suspected of wrongful killing. 4. Hikvision — Many people still think it's a security company, but in fact, AIoT+ large models have already been successfully implemented. ROE will reach 17.3% in 2025, operating cash flow will surge 91% year-on-year to 25.3 billion yuan, and gross margin will hit a four-year high of 49%. This fundamental ratio with current valuations is indeed cheap. 5. Microsoft — Stable Bottom Position, Azure + OpenAI ecosystem moat is extremely deep, defensive value becomes apparent after a 31% drawdown. 6. Palantir — Government and enterprise AI platform has extremely high switching costs; Fwd PE has been sharply compressed from its peak to 71 times, with analyst target price of $175. 7. Inspur Information — Number one in domestic AI server market share, with net profit forecast of 2.6-3.1 billion RMB for the first half of 2026, up 226%-288% year-on-year, forward-looking PE only 18 times, and price-to-sales ratio of 0.68. 8. Xinyisheng — ROE as high as 72%, gross margin 49%, another leader in optical modules, valuation yet to be verified but solid financial quality. 9. Arista Networks — Leading AI network exchange, ROE 30% >, gross margin 64%, and significantly compressed PE ratio. The core logic of this screening is: not to buy all AI stocks that have fallen, but to look for the sense of "profits flying wildly and stock prices plunging." The current market panic over AI capital spending has led to the discarding of bathwater and children. Among these companies, whoever maintains their fundamentals is the child who has been gone bankrupt. The above is based on publicly available financial report data and does not constitute investment advice.Bitcoin is currently trading at $⚡ 63,474 Previously, 66,700 had formed a clear high, with a seller structure established and bearish forces dominating the market. The rebound was extremely weak, unable to hold even the 0.618 Fibonacci level, and the original support has turned into resistance. Above 64,985 and 66,700, a large amount of trapped positions has accumulated; any rebound would only be a reversal of bullish resistance, not a trend reversal. If the price rebounds to the 63,700–64,136 range, consider selling high to short. During this downtrend, the only short-term support is near 61,500; if this level is breached, the next target could be 59,400. If the trend is downward, do not go against the trend and bottom-fish; focus on following the trend.Today, the rider made 44 trades and made 6,103 regular Bitcoin investments, all to wait for a child to turn 18. Did you know that sometimes the strongest faith doesn't come from Wall Street research, but from someone who turns the gas pedal? After reading this post, I sat in front of the computer in a daze for a long time. A food delivery rider automatically deposits 0.1 USDT per hour, from August 2025 to now, a total of 6,103 times, averaging $82,938, resulting in a 21% unrealized loss. Many people would have been anxious long ago, but he said, "If it's zero, then it's zero." This made me rethink something—we always talk about capital preference and risk appetite, thinking the market is dominated by institutions, quant investors, and big players. But the real grassroots capital preferences are actually hidden in such stories. It's not chasing gains or selling lows, nor is it a short-term gamble, but an almost clumsy, 13-year "betting on the future." From the perspective of capital preference, this is actually a signal worth breaking down: - When retail investors start entering the market using "dollar-cost averaging," an inhumane approach, it indicates that market sentiment has moved beyond pure speculation. This type of capital is more stable, more resistant to declines, and less likely to be washed out by panic. - He chose not ETH, SOL, or BTC. This shows that in the general public's perception, BTC is still the ultimate answer for "long-term savings." Behind this lies a distrust of fiat currency and a simple faith in scarce assets. - But its average price is 82,938, currently 64,992, a 21% unrealized loss. If BTC drops another 30%, can it still hold on? This is risk—retail investors' faith is often shattered during extreme market conditions. If the market enters a deep bear phase, this rhythm of dollar-cost averaging may be forced to interrupt and instead become a source of selling pressure. So, what I see is not simply "bullish" or "bearish," but rather: Bullish logic: This real-world dollar-cost averaging behavior indicates that BTC is shifting from a "casino chip" to a "time capsule." As more and more ordinary people start accumulating this way, BTC's bottom will thicken and volatility will gradually decrease. In the long run, this is the soil for a bull market. Bearish risk: If BTC drops to 40,000 or 30,000, will these dollar-cost earners' psychological defenses collapse? A 21% floating loss is still a laughable, but what about a 50% floating loss? Once they are forced to sell, the decline accelerates. Moreover, this "it doesn't matter if it goes to zero" mentality is repeatedly tested by reality in a bear market. My judgment is: what moves me most about this story isn't whether BTC will rise, but that "capital preference" is quietly shifting from "short-term games" to "long-term savings." This shift is slow, but once it forms, it is the strongest foundation for a bull market. The BTC narrative is shifting from a "speculative tool" to a "carrier of fatherly love." As for the short term? The market is still digesting liquidity contraction and macro pressures, but the more such stories there are, the closer the bottom gets. (The above represents only my personal market views and does not constitute any investment advice.) )$BTC #定投 #长期主义

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