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Conclusion first: This morning's rebound is real, but the strength is fake. BTC rose from 80,680 in the early session to 82,814, now at 82,493, up 0.73% in 24 hours with a 2.6% amplitude. Looks lively, right? But looking at the futures data reveals the truth: the funding rate is 0.0037%, basically zero. To translate: those going long don't even want to pay this little interest; they say they're bullish, but their wallets are honest. Open Interest is 30,311 BTC (2.49 billion USD), and leverage hasn't followed. ETH is at 2,421 (-0.03%), stagnant; SOL is the most active at 105.2 (+0.92%), but its funding rate is only 0.0019%. In plain language: - 82,800–83,000 is a barrier; until it breaks through, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal - Funding rate near zero + no increase in Open Interest = no one is taking over this wave; bulls are waiting - China's Q3 GDP growth is 4.5%, macro data is relatively warm, crypto is not responding today. Looking ahead to this afternoon and tonight: my view is that 82,800 won't be broken and a pullback to 81,500 is more likely. Falsification condition is fixed: if BTC closes above 82,800 before 9 PM tonight and holds, my judgment is void and I'll admit it first thing tomorrow. The data was pulled at 12:15 today from refresh_market for Binance spot + futures real numbers, not just guessing. If you want to see what I tested, comment.#usd1 stablecoin market cap decreased by over $400 million in two weeks
[Old Leek Observation] On-chain research data shows that from October 6 to 15, the supply of USD1 on the three main chains—Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Solana—decreased by about $385 million, a drop of approximately 8.7%, with the total supply falling to about $4.04 billion. Observing a broader nearly two-week period, the decline has approached over $400 million. There are two points worth noting in this news.
The first is that redemption does not equal de-pegging. On-chain data indicates that this round of supply reduction mainly came from redemption and burning on Ethereum and $BNB Chain. During the same period, the price of $USD1 still basically fluctuated around $1 and did not experience a sustained large-scale de-pegging due to the supply decrease. Therefore, the clearer current signal is a contraction in circulating supply rather than a stablecoin run having occurred.
The second is the impact of large funds. The supply on Ethereum decreased by about $185 million, and BNB Chain decreased by about $200 million. The research report also points out that about $200 million of the redemptions on BNB Chain came from the same untagged address. In other words, a few large redemptions can significantly change the overall scale of USD1. However, on-chain addresses cannot directly prove the identity of the ultimate holder, nor can redemption motives be judged solely based on transaction records. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
*Netflix Q1'26E Beat - Short Summary:*
*1. Ads:* >50% of new sign-ups on ad-tier + Oct price hikes = higher ARPU.
*2. Live/Sports:* WWE/NFL/Boxing drove low churn + 8-10M net adds into Q1.
*3. Extra members:* 2-3M more paid sharing adds at 100% margin.
=> $10.25B -> $10.78BThe day after tomorrow, Solana is about to undergo the biggest consensus layer operation since its inception.
On October 21, the Alpenglow upgrade will officially launch on the mainnet, reducing the final confirmation time from 12.8 seconds directly down to 150 milliseconds. But today, the hottest topic in the community isn't this speed, but its cost.
The cost of 150 milliseconds is a sharp increase in the hardware threshold for validators.
Alpenglow requires nodes to be equipped with at least a 128-core CPU and 1TB of memory, directly eliminating about 22% of old devices. Even more troublesome is geographic concentration. In August this year, a routing failure at TeraSwitch caused 28.8% of staked SOL to go offline for 33 minutes, nearly hitting the chain halt threshold. The upgrade can improve fault tolerance but cannot solve the root problem of physical hosting concentration.
On one side is extreme performance, on the other is disguised centralization. Solana is betting that the market can accept this trade-off.
But whales have clearly accepted it. On October 9, Jump Crypto's Firedancer wallet staked another 454,000 SOL, worth $49.81 million. SOL's current price is 105, up 2.2% in 24 hours, and the price remains firmly above 100.
My judgment: In the first two days after the upgrade goes live, the narrative for $SOL will be only one thing—speed. No one will check the hardware list. But when the sentiment fades, that 128-core threshold will become the new story.
At the 105 level, the bet is on the 150 milliseconds the day after tomorrow, or the node list three months later.
Discuss in the comments below👇 【$USD1 Evaporates $400 Million in Two Weeks, Stablecoins Also Depend on Whales】
The stablecoin USD1, issued by World Liberty Financial, a project associated with the Trump family, saw its market cap shrink by about $401 million in just two weeks, dropping from $4.43 billion to $4.02 billion, a decline of approximately 9.1%. The price of USD1 remains basically pegged to $1; what decreased was the circulating supply, not a crash in the coin price.
From October 6 to 15, redemptions of about $185 million and $200 million occurred on Ethereum and BNB Chain respectively, with about $200 million on BNB Chain coming from a single unknown address. The supply on Solana remained basically unchanged during the same period, indicating this is not simply a cross-chain transfer but closer to actual redemption.
What is more concerning is that the supply of USD1 on Ethereum dropped by 11.45% during the same period, significantly exceeding USDC's 2.18% and USDT's 0.76%. The overall market contraction explains part of this but not the entire difference.
USD1 is preparing to transfer custody from BitGo to a trust company under World Liberty, and its supply is highly influenced by a few large holders. What can be confirmed now is large redemptions, but it cannot be confirmed that this reflects a loss of confidence in the project. If the supply continues to decline and redemptions accelerate, that would be more worrisome; if the issuer's handover goes smoothly and supply grows again, this contraction may just be a temporary adjustment. The tug-of-war range between macro pause and capital confrontation at 82,000 — 84,246 is the threshold for trend confirmation. Wash's speech lowered rate hike expectations, whales are continuously accumulating, but ETF outflows and the weak technical structure mean the market is still waiting for a catalyst to break the deadlock. The FOMC meeting will be the next key point; before that, respecting the range and waiting for confirmation is safer than predicting direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Bitcoin's largest bullish leader MicroStrategy has issued another announcement, continuing to add 267 $BTC
MicroStrategy founder Saylor announced again: this time spending $21.75 million to buy 267 $BTC, while also repurchasing $STRC preferred shares worth $193 million.
Looking back at MicroStrategy's entire operation, from 4,603 coins in August, to 250 coins last week, and 267 coins this week. Five consecutive decreases, still buying Bitcoin but at a slower pace.
In the same announcement, the real action is elsewhere. Repurchasing preferred shares worth $193 million, which is 8.9 times the amount spent on buying coins.
Most importantly: he raised the repurchase plan scale from $2 billion to $3 billion.
So MicroStrategy's current logic is very clear: slow down the pace of buying Bitcoin, allocate more funds to repurchasing its own preferred shares, and improve its capital structure.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Tesla's recent delivery volume exceeded market expectations, but "sales recovery" does not equal "profit guarantee."
Key points to observe:
* Profit test of volume and price substitution: If sales growth is achieved by compromising vehicle prices or through promotional subsidies, automotive gross margins may continue to be under pressure.
* Fundamental divergence: Market focus has shifted from simply "shipment scale" to "profitability per vehicle" and free cash flow.
* Valuation support key: Only by accelerating the monetization progress of AI and energy storage businesses can the core profitability structure be truly restored, dispelling market doubts about growth momentum. #Institutional funds weaken, who will see the return flow first, BTC or ETH?
$BTC $ETH
I will look at BTC first. It's not because it fell less that it means the bottom is reached, but because when the market contracts, institutions usually return first to assets with deeper liquidity. From 10/12 to 10/16, BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of $228.4 million, ETFs had a net outflow of $320.1 million, and ETH faced even greater selling pressure.
Galaxy Research estimates that ETF and corporate treasury buying still cannot absorb the BTC released by long-term holders. The cumulative supply-demand gap this year is about negative 127,300 coins.
Altcoins fell an average of 14% last week, BTC about 3%; trading volume and stablecoin supply are also contracting, indicating overall capital withdrawal, with no clear rotation or absorption yet.
If I were to rank the return flow order, I currently lean towards BTC stabilizing first, and ETH then watching the capital sentiment. But at present, no clear return flow signal is seen yet. Whether ETF outflows can narrow is the next key point to watch.#CircleQ3USDCGrowth Stablecoins have an easily overlooked aspect: they don't need to rise to create commercial value.
In cases of cross-border transfers, corporate settlements, and dollar transfers, what users care about is cost, speed, and whether the money will arrive successfully, not how much it will increase tomorrow.
Circle's expansion into emerging markets is worth watching, but announcing market entry and generating real payment volume are two different things.
I want to later see the actual transfer volumes, active users, and progress in compliance.
If the money really starts to get accustomed #SpaceXQ3Earnings
*SpaceX Q1'26E Beat - 3 Drivers:*
*1. Starlink scale:* 6M+ subs = ∼$800M/mo recurring, high-margin revenue from Mini/Aviation deals.
*2. Launch record:* 48 Falcon launches vs 41 in Q4, more $67M-$150M commercial/NASA missions.
*3. Government payouts:* Starship + Starshield + HLS milestones triggering in Q1.
Result: Est. $4.8B -> $5.6B QoQ.Total: +$355M vs +$168M yesterday
• BTC: +$245M (largest in 5 days)
• ETH: +$110M (2x yesterday)
Why it's better:
1. Dip buying: BTC held above $62k support, triggered ETF bid from BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity.
2. ETH catch-up: ETH/BTC ratio bounce + staking ETF chatter = first $100M+ day for ETH this week.
3. No GBTC drag: GBTC outflows finally flat, so net inflows are clean.
Risk-on flow is back.Three Faces of the Liquidation Night: Short Squeeze, Stalemate, Long Burial 💥
$ETH: Shorts were forced to exit by the rebound 🚪. 24h liquidations: 56.37 million shorts, 42.41 million longs; 4h liquidations: 39.1 million shorts, only 400k longs; 1h liquidations: 99.8% shorts. Price pulled back above 2,400, but the positive funding rate indicates longs are still paying; accounts are mostly long, with few active buyers: existing longs, little new money. The $10.1 million liquidation order near 2,398 is the next test.
$BTC: Longs and shorts are in a tug of war 🤝. Liquidations are nearly balanced, with a tug between 80,684 and 82,500. ETF net outflow of 228 million, whale deposits halted, marginal selling pressure easing. Above 82,500–83,000 is a buildup of short fuel; below 79,800–80,000 there are 97.87 million 40x leveraged long positions.
$ZEC: The leverage funeral is not over ⚰️. Long liquidations 9.9 million, short liquidations 4.24 million, more than twice longs. After a 460% surge, high leverage stacked; CPI was just a pin, the stampede is the knife, with long liquidations once accounting for 88.7%. 18,900 stolen ZEC flowed into privacy pools, combined with NU7 countdown and expected rule changes, thin liquidity sees longs and shorts cutting each other.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 When the market weakens, several coins that were heavily hyped earlier are basically being neglected.
A few coins that might still have hype opportunities are: $STRK, $BCH, $NEAR, and there might be a narrative reversal.
STRK is the most dramatic. The community voted to become an independent quantum-resistant L1, with 99.9% approval and 180 million tokens participating.
There was already a wave of hype around the quantum resistance narrative before, and the price rose a lot. Although I personally don't believe it, the market still has quite a bit of capital voting.
Recently, the unlocking of 127 million tokens a few days ago pushed the price down, and active wallet addresses on-chain also dropped by 63%.
NEAR is the most undervalued technology play. Former Solana Mert joined the council, which the market interprets as technical endorsement of NEAR's privacy/confidentiality intentions, possibly leading to an alliance with Zcash.
Currently priced around $5, it has dropped 18% in 7 days, oversold. What it lacks is narrative exposure, not technology. Once the privacy sector heats up, it has the greatest elasticity.
BCH is a relatively stable veteran. CME launched BCH futures today, and this veteran payment coin is finally entering traditional derivatives.
Currently around 276, the price is because everyone worries that institutions will short after futures launch, so it's considered an oversold state with everyone watching.
So after the short sellers enter these days, our chances of entering the spot market are pretty good. By late October, the real directional choice is coming fast!
$BTC
Held the uptrend line at 80,000 and climbed back above 82,000, proving the bulls' defense is still intact, but the price hasn't reclaimed the previous drop's high point, and the MACD hasn't truly turned bullish. #OKX 4-hour open interest rose with the rebound, funding rates remain positive, current rise is still driven by contract funds, while spot market follow-through is not obvious.
The two red circles on the daily chart both look like sideways consolidation but differ in nature: the left side completed turnover between 76,000-82,000 before a volume breakout; the right side has seen lower highs since falling from 87,400, with volume increasing on declines and shrinking on rebounds, indicating many chips remain to be cashed out between 83,000-86,000.
ETF feedback is more direct.
In the past two weeks, ETFs saw a net outflow of about $907 million, with another $82.4 million outflow on October 16. Institutions haven't fully exited but aren't aggressively accumulating either.
Macro is also contradictory.
The probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to about 12%-15%, and US Treasury yields have fallen from highs; however, September CPI rose to 3.7%, and December rate hike expectations are near 89%. Short-term pressure eases but doesn't mean liquidity is easing again.
My judgment: For the rest of October, expect a rebound repair phase, not a direct main rally.
80,000 decides defense, 85,000 decides offense. Within this range, patiently waiting for confirmation is more important than rushing to judge bull or bear.🔍 An increase of 4,045 units in one go, but the real question is where the money for the purchase came from. When I see this kind of news, I usually look for funding clues first, and put the holdings leaderboard later.
According to the SEC 8-K document cited by the information, Strive bought 4,045 BTC at an average price of about $82,803 from October 12 to 16, 2026, bringing the total holdings to 36,818 BTC. Among them, 2,822 BTC were disclosed on October 14, so the entire week's amount should not be counted as newly disclosed actions.
An interesting detail here: the purchase scale and average price are explained, but the source of funds is not disclosed in this material. I believe this news has more observational value for the company's Bitcoin reserve strategy than explanatory power for short-term price movements. The increase in holdings indicates that allocation actions did occur; but without financing costs and repayment arrangements, it is difficult to judge whether this accumulation can be sustained, and ordinary users cannot directly apply the company's decision logic.
Here is my speculation: if subsequent disclosures show longer funding terms and controllable repayment pressure, then this increase looks more like a long-term reserve layout; if it relies on continuous financing, the market must simultaneously examine expansion capacity and financing constraints. Don't rush to conclusions yet; the purchase itself does not explain all the motives behind it.
I will continue to monitor the source of funds. In the next disclosure, would you rather check the financing costs or whether BTC has been pledged? Let's watch the follow-up together and see whose speculation is closer.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins I think $NFLX the iconic company is in a tough spot.
The slower growth comments from their Co-CEO this week will be blamed on a shift to live programming.
I don't think that's the actual issue. Live programming does contribute lower watch hours per dollar of content spend… but it also over-indexes in terms of generating new engaged members… which should greatly offset the headwind. #MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook Amazon raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance from about $200 billion to about $220 billion, with management explaining that the main reason is the rising cost of memory
Alphabet raised from 180 to 190 billion to 195 to 205 billion, and Meta raised the minimum from 125 billion to 130 billion (the upper limit of 145 billion remained unchanged).
Microsoft, due to a change in lease accounting standards, the numbers cannot be directly compared, so I did not include them. AI bills are now partly due to higher memory prices.
This is the latest version after the quarterly report $IONQ IonQ is currently in a short-term divergence state of "fundamentals improving, per-share value declining." Revenue growth of 287% and the upwardly revised guidance prove that demand has not collapsed. The Superion roadmap and collaborations with Nvidia, SDT, and others are also building credibility for the commercialization narrative in 2027–2028. However, the full stock acquisition of Elisity in October and the $2 billion equity financing have forced the market to reprice the "cost of growth." Before the Q3 actual data is released in the November earnings report and the Superion 256 delivery schedule is further clarified, the stock price is more likely to be in a phase of event digestion and valuation rebuilding rather than the start of a trend reversal. $ENA
Ethena's USDe aims to hold a dollar value through crypto collateral paired with short perpetual positions. In good markets, funding rates can reward that structure. When funding turns negative, the same mechanism comes under pressure. Anyone following ENA is really following derivatives conditions, which makes it a different risk profile from a typical DeFi token.$TRX
Tron's relevance comes less from flashy apps and more from stablecoin transfers. A large share of USDT movement has happened on the network, which makes it a payments rail for many users. That focus is a strength, but also a dependency: regulatory shifts around stablecoins or a change in where USDT settles could affect it directly.NEAR at $5, would you still dare to hold it?
From $6 crashing down to $5, leveraged longs got liquidated, and the whole network is calling NEAR an "outdated AI chain"—but ETFs are quietly buying, and Intents recorded $4.7 billion in transactions in one month. So is this a shakeout or a run for safety?
Let's look at the surface first: The pullback is scary, but volume is shrinking
Recently, NEAR has pulled back 15%-18% from around $6, now oscillating between $4.95-$5.03. Daily RSI is 53-54, neutral; MACD is converging with weak momentum; volume has dropped from highs.
This is a leverage cleanup, not a trend reversal.
A real top-down drop shows high volume selling, not a low-volume slow decline. This move looks more like "shaking off the undecided holders."
First point: BTC/ETH ETFs are flowing out, NEAR ETF is seeing net inflows
Bitwise's NEAR spot ETF (NRR) has had continuous net inflows since its late September launch, holding about 15.7 million NEAR, roughly $79 million, and plans to stake for 5% yield.
While BTC and ETH ETFs are seeing overall outflows, NEAR ETF still has net inflows. This indicates institutions view it not as a "shitcoin allocation" but as an independent asset.
Second point: NEAR is not just an AI narrative; it already has real revenue
Many still treat NEAR as an "AI concept chain," which is a major misconception.
NEAR Intents cumulative transaction volume has exceeded $33 billion, with $4.7-$4.8 billion in September alone, a significant month-over-month increase. More importantly, fee income already supports buyback and burn. Inflation has dropped from 5% to 2.5%, with proposals to reduce it further to 1.6%.
Additionally, partnerships like Sunrise connecting to the Solana market, Brave browser integrating NEAR AI private inference, and post-quantum secure accounts launching on mainnet—you may dislike its price, but you can't say it hasn't been active.
Third point: Technicals have reached a critical battleground
Support levels: $4.80-$5.00 (current bull-bear dividing line) → $4.50-$4.76 (strong support) → $4.30
Resistance levels: $5.15-$5.30 (recent highs/Bollinger upper band) → $5.50-$5.80 → $6.00 (previous high psychological barrier) → $7.50 (mid-term target)
Daily moving averages remain bullishly aligned; price is well above the 200-day MA ($2.3-$2.7) and 50-day MA ($3.9-$4.1). Weekly RSI is 68, not overbought; daily RSI is 53, neutral.
But the $5.30 level is crucial—breaking and holding above confirms a new uptrend; falling below $4.76 with volume could accelerate downside.
Also, a vulnerability related to Intents in mid-October involved about $3.8 million; the team has recovered most of the funds.
Bull vs. Bear, you decide
On one side:
NEAR ETF sees net inflows while BTC/ETH ETFs flow out
Intents cumulative $33 billion volume, fees support buyback and burn
Inflation down from 5% to 2.5%, with further cuts proposed
Integration with Solana, Brave, and post-quantum security launched
Daily MAs bullish, pullback on shrinking volume
On the other side:
Macro is hawkish; low probability of big rate cuts at late October FOMC
BTC oscillating around $82.5k, ETFs had over $200 million net outflow last week
Aftershocks from October vulnerability affect short-term sentiment
Multiple rejections at $5.15-$5.30; failure to break means retest
Trading strategy
Conservative long (main strategy):
Light position near $5, add on pullback to $4.80-$4.90. Strict stop loss below $4.50 (structure invalidation). Partial take profit at $5.50-$5.80, second target $6.00-$6.50, mid-term target $7.50. Use 3-5x leverage, build positions in batches, don’t go all in at once.
Short-term swing:
Break and hold above $5.30, chase longs targeting $5.80-$6.00. Break below $4.76 with volume, light short test, target $4.50, stop loss $5.10. Avoid chasing back and forth around $5.00—that just pays fees to exchanges.
NEAR now resembles SOL at the end of 2023—
Back then, everyone said "Ethereum killers are dead," but SOL went from $20 to $200.
NEAR isn’t SOL, but the logic is similar: real usage, institutional channels, buyback mechanism, yet price is at a sentiment low.
$BTC $ETH $NEAR In the futures market, when an industrial company acquires a listing platform, I usually first look at what assets it brings in and how it will finance afterward, rather than just focusing on the word "approved." In traditional finance, such news is often interpreted as the opening of a capital operation gateway, but there is still some way to go before operational results are achieved.
This time, Metaplanet founder and CEO Simon Gerovich announced that the transaction with Nasdaq-listed company Super League Enterprise (SLE) has been formally approved by the latter's shareholders' meeting. According to the agreement, Metaplanet will inject 2,100 bitcoins and $2.5 million in cash.
My judgment is that this is a positive development for its layout in the US capital market, but it cannot be directly equated with new buying demand for $BTC. The agreement states asset injection, not a declaration of market purchases; shareholder approval advances the transaction but does not mean subsequent financing capabilities have been realized. The difference between the crypto market and traditional industrial acquisitions is that Bitcoin's own price volatility may also affect the market's evaluation of this asset injection.
I am more concerned about how this platform will be used afterward, rather than cheering for the coin price first. If it can broaden financing channels, then the significance of the layout will be clearer. This is my speculation. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? Let's talk about this difference: would you see it as an ordinary listing platform acquisition, or an extension of Bitcoin asset financing models?#The Hormuz reopening plan is still valid, can oil prices continue to fall?
The Middle East situation changes daily, but frankly, it's all about using oil prices as a bargaining chip on the table.
Let me break it down for you. The Iranian foreign minister said the "7-day reopening of the strait" plan still counts, but the conditions must be met. On the other side, Trump’s team also made a 60-day "oil price truce" and temporarily suspended some sanctions on Russia. The US Treasury Secretary also came out saying that once the conflict ends, inflation will naturally go down.
Sounds like things are cooling off, right? But if you look back at the market, Brent crude only dropped a bit over 1 point today, still hanging above $110. This is what you call talk of cooling down; the market doesn’t care at all, the money knows it’s just posturing.
What’s the impact?
First, the macro environment is still tightly constrained. Oil prices can’t drop below 110, so inflation expectations won’t come down. Without inflation dropping, the Fed cutting rates is just a dream. Although the Fed is collectively silent now, these oil tankers are actually voting on their behalf. With such high capital costs, why would big money outside the market rush into crypto?
Second, don’t be fooled by the word "truce." This 60-day truce is all political bargaining chips and can be broken at any time. As long as the Middle East isn’t truly peaceful, this oil price bomb can be triggered again anytime.
Don’t try to guess when they’ll sign an agreement; it’s unpredictable. Right now, it’s a typical macro deadlock: oil prices won’t fall, so the crypto market won’t see big one-sided moves.
What’s your take? $BTC It's another new week. Generally speaking, I don't trade during the weekend, nor do I recommend opening positions on weekends. The lower liquidity and thinner order books during weekends amplify capital fluctuations, making it easy for more extreme, sudden, and illogical unpredictable spikes up and down to occur. Additionally, institutional large capital participation is relatively low, so most of the weekend hours rarely reflect the true intentions of the capital. However, it is important to note that weekend volatility is not meaningless, especially around 4-7 AM Beijing time before the Asian session on Monday, which corresponds to the weekend afternoon in Eastern US time. During this period, capital movements often occur, and many times short-term spikes for liquidation either downward or upward happen. After liquidity hunting is completed, the market is usually quickly pulled back to the original consolidation range or chooses to move out in the opposite direction to form a new trend. At the same time, it should also be noted that capital may conduct some smaller tests, front-running, or positioning during the low-volatility sideways movement on weekends, all of which are worth traders' observation and some degree of analysis. Returning to this weekend, it was actually a relatively unusual and very interesting weekend. The trading volume was large, and capital on both sides showed obvious probing and even offensive moves, yet all with a strong sense of boundaries and order. This is not the first time I have described the current BTC market as "interesting." As for why I describe it this way, I think after reading my review below, you will share the same feeling. Let's start with the recent market liquidation movement early on the weekend morning Beijing time. The short-term drop at 5:15 may be related to the then on-chain US stock market large...Evening Review｜One Profit, One Loss, A Lesson the Market Taught Me
Two long positions, two different outcomes. $HYPE followed the capital trend, with a 20x long position smoothly floating in profit; $BICO was a subjective bottom-fishing attempt, directly facing the short-selling main force, deeply trapped in position.
Looking at smart money data clearly shows strength and weakness: BICO shorts have a very high profit ratio, capital continues to be bearish, yet I entered against the trend; HYPE's long-short battle is intense, price moves upward breaking the trend, capturing profits by following the momentum.
But also be alert, both positions have very low margin ratios, under full position mode, even a slight market reversal risks forced liquidation.
The core of trading is always to follow the trend, do not subjectively predict the bottom. Next, protect profits with stop-loss, set a plan to exit losing positions, strictly control leverage and position size, and prioritize risk management.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 "Long scarce assets, short fiat currency"
Strive CEO Matt Cole's framework is straightforward: permanently long Bitcoin, short the US dollar. The logic is simple—over the past 55 years, scarce assets have consistently outperformed currency depreciation. Since 1970, gold has had a compound growth of 9.0%, while M2 was 6.7%; after the financial crisis, 9.5% versus 6.3%; post-pandemic, it even rose to 18.3% versus 6.5%.
Cole believes Bitcoin is digital gold and still in its early stages; once mature, its performance should surpass gold. As long as debt crises and currency depreciation continue, the excess returns of scarce assets relative to the US dollar will accelerate.
Strategically, he emphasizes that "leverage" is the key to outperforming Bitcoin, not the cost of capital. Maintaining high leverage over the long term without liquidation is extremely difficult. Most investors have yet to price in Strive's moat and often only realize it when Bitcoin hits sustainable new highs.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be unveiled #SpaceXQ3Earnings
SpaceX Q1'26E Beat - 3 Drivers:
1. Starlink scale: 6M+ subs = ∼$800M/mo recurring, high-margin revenue from Mini/Aviation deals.
2. Launch record: 48 Falcon launches vs 41 in Q4, more $67M-$150M commercial/NASA missions.
3. Government payouts: Starship + Starshield + HLS milestones triggering in Q1.
Result: Est. $4.8B -> $5.6B QoQ.Sun Yuchen appears glamorous but is actually struggling to keep up appearances, pretending that Huobi currently has strong funds and that users are rushing to deposit and play.
But the reality is that there are no real user deposits coming in, and the current users are not fools; once they get scammed, everyone will stay away.
Huobi HTX's net capital inflow in the past 24 hours is nearly $39 million, all deposited by Sun Yuchen himself, with no ordinary user deposits. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 I didn't have time to look closely during the day at work, but at night, leaning back in my chair, I scrolled to this Strive post, and my drowsiness faded a bit 🌙. What keeps me awake isn't "another institution bought," but that they increased their holdings by over 4,000 coins at once, which easily makes people casually treat it as a market confirmation signal.
According to the 8-K filing Strive submitted to the US SEC, the company bought 4,045 bitcoins at an average price of about $82,803 each between October 12 and 16, 2026, bringing their total holdings to 36,818 coins. This includes the previously disclosed 2,822 coins, so you can't add the two messages together as new purchases.
My judgment is: this is somewhat positive for the institutional allocation narrative of $BTC, but not enough to independently determine the short-term direction. The actual increase in holdings provides a stronger layer of support than just verbal expectations; however, these purchases have already happened, and the announcement doesn't mean there will be demand of the same scale going forward. For someone like me who watches the market at night, distinguishing between "funds that have already bought" and "funds that will continue to buy" is more important than just being alerted by a headline.
A reminder to myself: understand the disclosure scope clearly, and don't use institutional holdings to make your own judgments. Is anyone else still awake at this hour, watching institutional holdings or the market? Regarding this increase, are you more concerned about the scale or whether it can be sustained afterward? Let's start with a reality check: institutional accumulation is real, but treating the entire purchase as fresh positive news is, in my opinion, an overestimation. According to the 8-K filing Strive submitted to the US SEC, the company bought 4,045 bitcoins at an average price of about $82,803 each between October 12 and 16, 2026, bringing their total holdings to 36,818 bitcoins. I prefer to see this as demand confirmation rather than conclusive evidence of a market uptrend.
I'm stuck on two points. First, out of these 4,045 bitcoins, 2,822 were already disclosed on October 14; if the market had already priced this in, interpreting the entire amount as new positive news would be double-counting the same demand. Second, the purchase has already happened, and the holding size shows Strive's exposure but doesn't directly prove that equally strong buying pressure will continue. Regarding short-term sentiment for $BTC, I'm concerned that the headline impact is running ahead of the actual incremental information.
Of course, the bulls might be right; I'm not bearish just because institutions are buying. If subsequent disclosures show continued new buying and prices hold steady after the news hype fades, I will retract my cautious stance. Regarding this news, are you bullish or bearish? Share your reasons: the disclosed portion accounts for the majority—why is it still enough or not enough to change your view?🔍 The headline says "Increase in Holdings," does that mean these 3,983 tokens were definitely bought from the market? I usually check this scope first, so don't rush to conclusions.
What can be confirmed from this information is: DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) stated that in the past week, its holdings of SOL and SOL equivalents increased by 3,983 tokens, bringing the total holdings to about 2,590,300 tokens. This is the company's disclosure, but the material does not specify the exact source of the increase.
An interesting detail here: the scope includes "equivalents," so you can't directly count the entire increase as spot market purchases; compared to existing holdings, this increase is not large. I tend to see it as a signal that the treasury strategy is still ongoing, rather than a strong positive factor that alone can drive the $SOL market.
This is my speculation: if the company continues to announce holding growth, then strengthening the market's recognition of its Solana treasury positioning might also be one of the motives. But disclosure bringing attention does not equal bringing new capital demand of the same scale; evidence is still lacking in between.
What I will focus on next is the source of the increase: market purchases or formed by other means? Let's all watch the follow-up together. Which explanation do you think is closer, and which detail do you most want to see in the next disclosure?#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Although the subscription dividend from cracking down on password sharing has peaked, Netflix expects an operating profit margin of 33.2%. Combined with anticipated price increases and the continued penetration of low-cost ad packages, this is enough to support improved profitability. However, ad monetization still requires time to scale, and the market may be more sensitive to growth slowdown in the short term.$CT 0.334, at 17:42 when I posted it was 0.368, and I even asked everyone "Will 0.40 arrive first or 0.33 first?".
Answer: 0.33 arrived first 😂 At 20:00 this candlestick directly plunged to 0.3225, about -12% from then, breaking through the estimated long liquidation zone at 0.334.
The irony is in my own on-chain data: in the past 24 hours, about $3.34 million more was withdrawn from exchanges on Ethereum than deposited, which should mean "taking out without selling," yet the price still went down.
On DEX, there were 976 sell orders and 707 buy orders in 24 hours, more sellers than buyers.
The fee rate also changed: it narrowed from around -1.5% to about -0.83%, meaning shorts are less squeezed, and the fuel for short squeezes has significantly decreased.
New estimated liquidation chart: the next long layer is around 0.313, and the densest shorts are still hanging at 0.415 (estimated range, not target price).
$APR also dropped about 14% in two hours, small coins are bleeding tonight.
Will you catch 0.31? Yes / No, type one word in the comments 👇
{future}(CTUSDT)$BTC Institutional views believe the key reason for the recent weakness in Bitcoin this month lies on the demand side: corporate whales have paused accumulation, and ETFs have also seen capital outflows. Long-dormant old coins have recently been realized, with sell-off volumes exceeding institutional absorption; net outflow this year is about 127,300 coins. ETFs still had net inflows in September but turned to slight outflows in October. Although the full year remains positive, short-term support funds are retreating. The combination of old coin selling and insufficient institutional buying tilts the supply-demand balance, naturally putting price under pressure.📉
$ETH Currently more straightforward: sellers are active, buyers are cautious, and new funds are not continuously entering, making it difficult for both Bitcoin and Ethereum to mount a smooth rally.⚠️ However, there is no need to directly conclude a crash; the essence is a short-term lack of buying power.
$ZEC It is not advisable to rush to bottom-fish now; when buying interest is weak, bottoms tend to be tested repeatedly. It is more prudent to wait for signals such as enterprises restocking coins and ETF capital returning before taking action.👀#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Brothers, we just hold steady with $BTC, and leave the rest to time!
When fishing, the worst is when the float moves and you rush to pull the rod. You think the big fish has bitten, but when you pull it up, it's not only an empty hook, the bait is gone too. That's exactly how the BTC market is now, swinging back and forth between 82,000 and 82,500 every day. The bulls push it up, the bears slam it down, the float jumps happily, but the real direction hasn't emerged yet.
Let's look at the fundamentals to see what's really going on underwater. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has had net outflows of about $910 million for two consecutive weeks; the reservoir is being drained, so do you still expect a big carp to swim out? Plus, the US 10-year Treasury yield is stubbornly stuck near 5%. With such high risk-free returns, where would big money want to wade into the crypto waters?
The resistance zone from 82,600 to 83,000 above is like a solid net stretched across the river surface. Every time it tries to break higher without volume, it gets knocked down. This is a typical sign of bulls holding on hard. Once they can't hold anymore, our fishing rod will start to pull.
So don't rush, patience is key. Hold your short positions steady and defend well. No matter how the market jabs up and down intraday to shake out positions, as long as the big trend doesn't change, we'll just sit quietly on the shore and wait for the wind to come!
$ETH $ZEC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The most vulnerable point for ZEC right now is not the drop itself, but everyone's patience after the 1133 level has been repeatedly tested. The position you hold—is it a bet on the narrative, or a bet that others will give up first? Watching ZEC these past two days, the most direct feeling is: there is a rebound, but the quality of the rebound is not high. After dipping to $1116 in the early morning, it pulled back to $1160, and now it’s hovering around 1135. A 7% drop in 24 hours is not a disaster, but every time it tries to push up, selling pressure follows, indicating that the short-term initiative is still in the buyers' hands, just held very loosely. 1133 feels more like an emotional dividing line; if it breaks below, stop-loss orders will trigger faster than logical selling. From the perspective of sector strength, ZEC is currently in a very delicate position. The privacy narrative itself is intact, and the NU7 countdown is a solid catalyst: the testnet has been activated, block time is expected to be reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and on October 20th it will be decided whether the mainnet will launch on November 5th. Governance voting shows 98.9% support for maintaining the halving schedule. These are bullish underlying factors and explain why some are still willing to buy on dips. But the problem is that the good news was priced in too early, so before the actual implementation, it’s easy to enter a phase of divergence. The bearish side cannot be ignored either. Grayscale ZCSH saw a net outflow of about $93.56 million this week, with ETF withdrawals; on-chain, there is an account holding 10,000 ZEC with 10x leverage at an average price of 1146.8.#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report since going public is approaching: 67% betting on exceeding expectations, beware of consensus forecasts
After the U.S. market close on October 20, SpaceX (SPCX) will release its first full quarterly earnings report since going public.
Currently, in the prediction market, nearly 70% of funds are betting that this earnings report will beat expectations. I think this proportion itself is worth being cautious about.
The entire valuation boils down to two parts: Starlink is the current cash cow, focusing on whether new user additions and ARPU can maintain high growth—that's the baseline; while Starship is the long-term growth potential, but it is also a bottomless pit—if R&D spending gets out of control, it will directly swallow up profit expectations.
Many people only focus on Starlink's revenue figures and tend to overlook Starship's capital expenditures.
What can truly ignite the market is "Starlink continuing high growth + Starship delivering reliable test flights and landing milestones; if only Starlink meets targets and Starship shows no new progress, it is very likely just a good news realization, with funds selling on the news."
When bullish expectations are this high, it is often the most vulnerable time for a reversal.
This is just my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC Evening Market Analysis
Brothers, the casino has reopened for a new week, is everyone’s ammo ready?
Yesterday, Bitcoin surged from 80,600 all the way up past 83,000, but now a few bearish candles have slammed it back down to 82,200.
Last week, the Fed released September CPI year-over-year at 3.7%, and PPI also exceeded expectations, indicating inflationary pressure has not eased. This means the Fed’s rate cut expectations have been delayed, and the probability of a rate hike in December even surged to 76%. Bitcoin is a non-interest-bearing asset; the higher the interest rates, the more institutions naturally reduce positions during rebounds.
Also, ETF funds have been flowing out continuously. As of the week ending October 16, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $228 million, marking the second consecutive week of outflows.
The 80,600 dip was a panic shakeout; the continuous rise to 83,000 was a technical recovery plus short covering. But above 83,000, volume clearly couldn’t keep up, indicating no new capital stepping in. With macro pressure, ETFs running out, and sentiment still greedy, these three heavy burdens make a pullback after a rally inevitable.
Currently, 82,200 is a neutral position. The resistance just tested above is 83,000, and short-term support lies between 81,500-81,800. Don’t chase the rally; wait for a pullback and stabilization before considering going long. If you want to short, wait for a light position test near 82,800 on a rebound. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Dear, Netflix $NFLX will release its earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 20. Moonlight is cautiously optimistic this time!👀
The company expects Q3 revenue of $12.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 12%, with an operating margin expected at 33.2%.
Moonlight's forecast is:
Performance close to expectations, profit may slightly exceed, advertising monetization is a key observation point.
However, last year's same period had tax expenses that lowered the profit margin[The Ledger Logic Behind the French Riots: The Twilight of Fiat Currency and Bitcoin's "Devaluation Trade"]
In recent days, large-scale riots have erupted in many parts of France. On the surface, the anger was ignited by scarce educational resources and rising living costs, but the deeper issue points to a deadlock: fiscal exhaustion. France's public debt has reached 119% of GDP. If the government cuts welfare, it will face backlash; if it doesn't, the debt will snowball. The so-called "October Revolution" is merely an emotional outburst; the real crisis lies in arithmetic.
When a country's debt growth consistently outpaces income growth, the central bank will ultimately be forced to create money to cover the gap. This is not a choice but an inevitability. Not only France, but major global fiat currencies like the US dollar and the renminbi are structurally destined for chronic overissuance in the long term. When the French public and global capital begin to doubt sovereign credit, capital outflows become inevitable.
What does this mean for cryptocurrencies?
Do not simply equate riots with a short-term surge in Bitcoin. Bitcoin can also fall amid sudden turmoil; it is not an immediate safe haven from street conflicts. What we need to look at is a longer-term dimension—the "devaluation trade." When the global fiat issuance discipline systematically loosens under debt pressure, an asset with a rigid supply cap and no reliance on any government credit endorsement will inevitably gain structural demand. The recent rise in Bitcoin's correlation with gold confirms this.
Personal reflection:
The flames on the streets of France will die down, but the debt will not. The design of the modern fiat system inherently includes progressive dilution of holders. When fiscal deficits become normalized, the cost borne by savers will not manifest as a "revolution" but as a gradual erosion of purchasing power year by year.
Bitcoin may not be the ultimate answer, but if one believes that fiat overissuance is structural, then seeking a value storage tool that is not diluted by political processes is a rational response. When people's trust in a currency begins to waver, the first to move is never the streets, but the ledger.
Illustration: France 1980 vs. France 2026 $BTC In Strategy's open letter criticizing the MSCI new rules, three words were used: discriminatory, arbitrary, misleading.
On Friday, MSTR dropped 9.6% to 136.83, with the market pricing in the worst-case scenario: being kicked out of the index. MSCI said the treasury company’s treatment is "temporary"—the word "temporary" is clever; the knife hasn't been cut yet, but it's still held at the neck.
The after-hours rebound only means the panic scenario didn't happen. Actually being kicked out would mean $2.8 billion in passive selling pressure. The final list will be released on November 11, effective November 30, so the sword hangs over this month 🗡️
In my opinion, a rebound from oversold conditions is likely; tonight, watch for a move above 137 first. But the 140-150 range is full of trapped positions, so the upside is limited; if it falls below 134 (Friday's low), this judgment is invalid.
Rebound or not, all those trapped positions above 140 are just waiting to be freed and run.
$MSTR
$BTC
#MSCI新规冲击财库股，Strategy公开反对 Just taking advantage of Sister Misa's thoughts to talk about Netflix $NFLX
Can this quarter's earnings report exceed expectations?
What I care more about is not the current market probability,
but the specific numbers behind it that can push the figures over the line
Netflix's earnings report is about to be released, just a day or two away
I saw the market trend in OKX's quarterly forecast, currently around 70%
This kind of movement doesn't seem spontaneous,
more like someone has finished calculating the accounts and won't turn back
Actually, the threshold for earnings report research itself is not high
Wall Street's numbers are almost aligned with what the company said in July, the two are very close, so exceeding expectations no longer means delivering something shocking, just a little better than what was previously stated~
Netflix in the past wasn't the type to set guidance very low and then easily beat it; last quarter revenue was slightly off, profit slightly exceeded, overall hovering nearby.
So if this time it's just a bit more,
there's no need to rely on a suddenly emerging hit
Therefore, pricing, share count, and exchange rates, which can be relatively clearly calculated,
are enough to push the numbers through
The North American price increase covers a full quarter, previously management said the effect met expectations and there was no obvious customer loss
Buybacks have been ongoing, fewer shares mean the same profit is distributed over fewer shares, so earnings per share increase a bit; the US dollar was slightly weaker in Q3 compared to guidance time, so the overseas portion converted back can also add some
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 These two will see capital inflow; Bitcoin will come back first, not Ethereum. The difference is not in price but in the buyer structure. #InstitutionalFundsWeaken, Who Will See Capital Inflow First, BTC or ETH? Ethereum's marginal buyers are almost limited to just one product channel: a net outflow of 320 million this week, the third consecutive week, nearly one billion this month, making it the worst month this year. Leverage has been completely cleared, and RSI is among the lowest in the mainstream — the problem is no one is buying. Bitcoin is also bleeding on the product side, with net redemptions for the second consecutive week, but its buying demand is not limited to one channel: sovereign states keep buying daily regardless of quarterly reports; on-chain leverage is near zero, and no one is being liquidated during drawdowns. On one side, a single channel is shrinking; on the other, channels are shrinking but other entry points remain. In a recovery market, the money that is less likely to run away returns first. The counterintuitive point is this: the most crowded funding rates are shorts, not longs — SOL, XRP, and LINK still have negative rates. Retail investors wait for catch-up in spot markets, while professional traders short in futures; two groups stand opposed in the same market. At times like this, the capital that returns is never the cheapest but the one with the deepest liquidity and the most intense shorting. What counts as real capital inflow? I only recognize two criteria: product-side net inflow for two consecutive trading days and stablecoin supply stops falling. Until these two happen, any rebound is just borrowed strength. Many may not agree with me, but I have definitely compiled and analyzed more data than you and have my own strategy.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓, advertising business becomes a new focus
Netflix's revenue for Q3 is expected to reach $12.87 billion, with a growth rate of 11.8% — the slowest in three years. The number of monthly active users in the United States dropped by 10% year-over-year, and the average monthly viewing time per person declined from 66 hours in the first half of 2023 to 49 hours.
YouTube's share of TV viewing in the United States rose to 14.2%, while Netflix's share fell to 7.8%. The stock price has dropped by more than 40% over the year, 1,000 employees were laid off, and the CEO $BTC
The starting point of the last bull market was January 2023 and the end point was October 2025, nearly two and a half years, with the entire process involving comparisons of the magnitude of rises and pullbacks.
If you can't hold on, take a look at history……$BTC is lively, but positions haven't kept up
The total contract volume in the market has roughly increased by half
Positions have only increased slightly
High turnover, low position increase
The foundation for a rebound is relatively weak
Invalidation: Positions need to rise another notch, and the daily chart must hold above about $82,000
$BTC #BTC# Institutional funds are weakening, which will see a return flow first, BTC or ETH? The coming week will be even tougher than the last, with several landmines lined up to watch closely.
On Monday, the Korean stock market moves first. Koru has piled over $50 million long positions around the 10 price level. If it can't pull back from the danger zone, a new round of stampede will be triggered. Korean stocks have already dropped 60%, signaling a situation similar to 2008, and crypto is very likely to be dragged along.
On the macro front, after CPI and PPI both exploded, the repricing of rate hike expectations is not over yet. US Treasuries and the dollar continue to be pressured. $BTC's 80,000 level is the critical battleground: if it can't hold, look for 78,000; only a stable hold between 83,500–84,500 can offer some breathing room. $ETH is the weakest, with 2,300/2,200 as the next support levels; failing to reclaim 2,520–2,550 remains bearish. $SOL is stuck at 100, with a long-short ratio of 2.68, indicating bulls haven't fully exited; the chain reaction of crashes is not over.
Event-wise, Tesla reports Q3 earnings on October 21 (EPS expectations cut to 0.45), and tech sentiment will indirectly pull crypto.
In altcoins, don't get carried away by the oversold rebound of meme coins; without volume, it's just a correction;
Platform tokens (BNB 720 / HYPE 78 / OKB 118) can continue their independent rallies, but OKB has a strong follower attribute.
Next week, first guard against the contagion from the Korean stock stampede, then wait for macro and volume to give direction. Don't rush to bottom-fish.