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#Anthropic plans to raise $60 billion, IPO faces a test Currently, many traders are betting on an independent rebound in the crypto market, with wait-and-see funds awaiting a continuation of the trend
Maji Big Brother's leveraged portfolio maintains a framework of 40x short BTC, 25x long ETH, and 5x short HYPE, with new changes in various profits, losses, and funding fees: BTC short positions' floating profits continue to increase, ETH long positions' floating losses further expand, and HYPE short positions' floating losses have narrowed.
The market generally treats the recent price recovery as a signal of independent strength, but it tends to overlook the transmission of risk appetite from the US stock market. The Nasdaq previously fell sharply, and the tech sector was under pressure. On the 15th, the S&P's rebound was led by defensive sectors rather than a comprehensive recovery in risk appetite. If the Nasdaq stops falling and tech selling pressure eases, while BTC and ETH spot support becomes evident, that will be the signal that this logic is validated.
If a volume breakout occurs later or relevant news is released, the premise of this observation will become invalid.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE $SOL Liquidation Panorama: First Sweep Shorts, Then Squeeze Longs
Across the entire network, $330 million liquidated in 24 hours, 98,145 people liquidated, with $190 million in long positions and $140 million in short positions. $100 million in short liquidations occurred in 12 hours. This rebound first swept out low-position shorts, then after the rally, harvested chasing longs—a typical two-way shakeout.
$BTC: $63.93 million liquidated in 24 hours, with $36.02 million longs and $27.91 million shorts. $21.69 million short liquidations in 12 hours, mainly positions cleared during the uptrend; $2.74 million liquidated in 1-hour short-term trades, with longs accounting for $2.44 million. Price surged then pulled back, just wiping out short stop losses, then started squeezing high-position chasing longs, increasing divergence.
$ETH: $110 million liquidated in 24 hours, volume larger than BTC. $42.03 million longs and $67.82 million shorts. $48.31 million short liquidations in 12 hours, showing very strong short clearing pressure. ETH is more elastic; early concealed shorts stopped out during the rebound, and high-position chasing longs also face liquidation risk.
From the market perspective, short stop losses drive the rebound, and chasing longs become new fuel. Short-term volatility increases; avoid chasing highs or panic selling—wait for sentiment to fully release before acting.
Market analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC In the futures market, commodities have held up against the stock market decline. Experienced traders usually don't rush to call a bull market; instead, they first check funding costs and position pressure. Reading this news, I prefer to separate "unable to fall" from "able to rise".
QCP's analysis states that last week Bitcoin fluctuated between $80,000 and $83,000, with support firm at $80,000, contrasting with pressured tech stocks. Despite strong inflation data, safe-haven buying pushed long-term U.S. Treasuries higher, combined with Federal Reserve officials' remarks cooling rate hike expectations. The yield decline supported risk assets.
My judgment is that this is somewhat positive for $BTC but more like pressure relief rather than evidence of a trend start. Yield declines can ease funding cost pressure on risk assets, but bond gains also reflect safe-haven demand, so it can't be fully interpreted as a willingness to take risks.
The crypto market differs from traditional commodities in another way: Bitcoin lacks the same inventory and spot basis for cross-verification. Relying solely on range support, I always keep some reservation. My speculation is that if yields continue to fall but Bitcoin still can't break out of the range, then the macro tailwind's driving force may be limited.
Are there friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When encountering this combination of safe-haven bond buying and crypto price resilience, which observations from the commodity market would you borrow to judge strength or weakness, and which would you discard? ARB rose 9.27% today, attempting to break above 0.20 for the third time but failed to hold.
On October 11, it surged to 0.20314 and barely closed above that level.
On October 16, it surged again to 0.20247 but was pushed back the same day.
Today it reached 0.20037, then retreated to 0.19612.
Three attempts at the same level, only one succeeded in holding.
I think the key is not the price, but the volume.
The October 16 surge was on increased volume, with a turnover of 10.62 million, 1.4 times the average volume, yet it still failed to break through.
Today’s volume was only 5.74 million, about 75% of the average volume.
A wall that can’t be broken even on increased volume is even harder to break on decreased volume.
But today there’s something different: the entire DeFi sector is rising.
Tokens related to lending, DEX, and yield aggregation are almost all green, with gains ranging from 1% to 4%.
Meanwhile, the public chains are bleeding, with several major L1s down 4% to 6%.
The money hasn’t increased; it’s just rotated from storytelling chains to fee-collecting protocols.
I acknowledge this rotation, but I’m still not convinced about ARB itself.
It has risen 116% in 91 days, standing at 68% of its 100-day range, no longer cheap.
It’s not climbing up from the bottom; it’s continuing upward from mid-slope.
The 0.20 level at mid-slope is much harder to break than the 0.20 at the valley bottom.
$ARB
#SectorRotation$ETH fell 5.38%, the issue is not how much it fell
$ETH dropped 5.38% in the past 7 days.
During the same period, $BTC only fell 1.46%.
How this number is calculated:
Subtract one from the other, the difference is nearly 4 percentage points.
Falling less is not an achievement; falling less but still underperforming counts.
The next step is:
In the next upward move, can $ETH outperform the broader market a bit?
If yes, that’s called strengthening; if not, it’s just following the rebound.
$AAVE is reported at 151.9, up 6.58% in 30 days.
Within the same ecosystem, returns are not synchronized.
Leading monthly returns did not bring short-term advantage.
Strength and weakness must be calculated separately, not mixed.
After settling this account, excitement should be toned down first.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
#$ETH $BTC China's GDP has returned to 4.5%, is the economy warming up? Don't rush to celebrate yet.
My view: The production side is holding the scene, but domestic demand is the real test.
Manufacturing is strong enough: High-tech manufacturing grew 14.3% in the first three quarters, exports and factories remain important supports.
Consumption hasn't caught up: Retail sales in September only grew 1.1%, real estate development investment fell 20.6% in the first three quarters, and this is the worrying part.
What to watch next? Whether consumption can pick up and whether real estate can stop falling. GDP exceeding expectations does not mean all parts of the economy are recovering.
Economic growth relies on factories, but economic recovery depends on whether ordinary people dare to spend money.SanDisk experienced a strong rebound rally today. As a core NAND flash stock, it is undergoing a recovery after the previous continuous sell-off in the storage sector.
This round of increase is mainly a short-term emotional recovery after overselling, combined with the market's re-pricing of enterprise SSD demand driven by AI inference. NAND flash spot prices remain relatively strong, attracting capital back into the storage sector. With sector linkage, storage stocks like Hynix and Micron are also following the rebound.
However, it is important to distinguish: this wave is a rebound rally and not necessarily a trend reversal. The core disruptive factors behind the previous storage sector plunge remain, including the Fed's rate hike expectations, oil price volatility, and the overall risk appetite for major tech stocks, which will continue to constrain the sector.
Key points to note
1. The oversold rebound rally is highly volatile, with rapid gains and sharp pullbacks. Do not mistake the short-term rebound for a new major upward wave to avoid chasing at high levels.
2. The sector linkage is very strong; if the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weaken again, storage stocks are likely to be dragged down once more.
3. On the fundamentals side, continue to track NAND contract prices, cloud vendors' capital expenditures, and the medium- to long-term supply impact from ChangXin Memory's capacity expansion.
4. Macro variables remain the biggest uncertainty: changes in Fed rate expectations will directly suppress valuations of tech growth stocks.
5. High-leverage contracts carry higher risks; rapid spikes and drops can occur during rebound rallies, so manage positions and stop-losses carefully.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $SOXL October 19th–October 25th Global Macro Guidance: Rate hikes delayed, inflation not retreating! Energy faces policy price suppression, AI earnings follow macro data, has the dollar's global siphon effect begun!? Last week's market focus was whether CPI would lead to a re-evaluation of inflation, and who would control pricing power between energy and the bond market!? A week later, the market has received accurate answers: CPI is hotter than expected, Brent prices once exceeded $110, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped to 14%, the probability of a rate hike in December rose to 77%, and the probability of another hike in March approaches 50%. #Chip stocks rebound after eight consecutive declines, can AI trading repair? So starting this week, discussions about Fed policy have shifted to whether there will be a rate hike in December, whether the market has started pricing in a probability exceeding 80% for a December hike, and how much pricing will be completed before the December meeting! This week's macro logic chain: Inflation pressure → switching from October rate hike to December rate hike → Trump uses policy to suppress oil prices → Brent falls below $110 → energy inflation expectations decline + bond yields fall → long-term fiscal risk + term premium risk still exist → tech stocks Q3 earnings valuation adjustment → AI profit growth VS high capital expenditure VS 5% risk-free rate → US stocks and BTC trends. The first main line — will there be a rate hike in December? As of now, CME swap rates show the probability of an October rate hike has dropped to 14%. As the meeting approaches, the possibility of an October hike is basically eliminated, and the market is betting on a December hike and another in March next year.My first reaction when I saw this was: Is the difference between income and expenditure a bit too large? USDD released the Q3 2026 treasury report: quarterly income of $9.7 million, a 26.7% quarter-on-quarter increase, expenditure of $7,601, net profit of about $9.7 million; balance of $31.24 million, surpassing $30 million for the first time. I actually got stuck on the "expenditure" column 🤔
My understanding is that this report is positive news for treasury accumulation, but it cannot be directly used to prove that the entire stablecoin system's operating costs are very low. Not sure if I'm right; having been in the space for only a year, I'm quite afraid of conflating two different accounting scopes.
On one hand, income growth and balance increase indicate that the treasury indeed retained more funds this quarter. On the other hand, the expenditures listed by the treasury may not cover all costs required to maintain system operation; the material does not clarify this. If some costs are borne by other entities, then this table only shows the treasury's own income and expenses, not the profit and loss statement of the entire system. This is my speculation, not a claim that such a situation already exists.
What I haven't figured out yet is how to interpret this $7,601. I would like to ask experienced people who have seen similar reports: to verify the scope of its expenses, what kind of disclosures should I look for, or how can I correlate the report items with on-chain expenditures?OI market share at 11.9%, Grayscale bought $7.8 million in 20 days
Analyst sentiment ranks HYPE first in the entire market, deviating 2.3 standard deviations above the bullish consensus, more extreme than BTC and ETH. But what about the price? It dropped from 97.96 to 79, a 22% pullback. When price and sentiment diverge, that's when traders get involved.
$HYPE bets on the "fee buyback flywheel"
The first AQAv2 income of 14.58 million USDC has already arrived, with continuous buybacks of HYPE into the Assistance Fund; HyperLink routing transaction volume reached 254 million last month, targeting 10% of Hyperliquid's trading volume. Grayscale net bought $7.8 million in 20 days, institutions didn't stop buying during the dip. Perpetual OI market share hit a record 11.9%, the ecosystem is growing. HYPE's bullish logic is not narrative, but revenue converted into buying pressure.
$BNB bets on "deflationary bottom + ecosystem options"
The 37th burn just landed, 1.646 million BNB directly sent to the black hole, about $1.2 billion. AI trading tools launched; the more active the trading, the greater the fee discounts and gas consumption, the fiercer the burn. Plus the expectation of Predict's TGE within a month, BNB pool new listings are a clear play. BNB may not rise the fastest, but it is the toughest during downturns.
One offense, one defense. Honestly: between HYPE's buybacks and BNB's new listings, which one would you bet on?
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ 🔍Can a burn of about $1.197 billion be directly counted as a buy order of the same scale? Seeing this news, I actually want to separate "burn" and "buy" first, and not rush to conclusions.
According to this information, the BNB Foundation announced the completion of the 37th quarterly burn on BNB Chain, burning a total of 1,646,196.44 $BNB, with an estimated value of about $1.197 billion at the time of the burn, leaving a total remaining supply of 131,512,085 tokens. What can be confirmed here is that the announcement disclosed the burn amount and supply, but the source of these tokens was not explained.
An interesting detail here: the USD valuation is the value standard of the burned tokens, not equivalent to new funds entering the market; the supply reduction strengthens the scarcity narrative, but whether demand will keep up cannot be answered by this news alone.
My judgment is that this is somewhat positive for the supply side, but treating it as a decisive clue for short-term market trends, I think, is an overestimation. This is my speculation: if subsequent on-chain usage demand continues to increase, then the supply contraction is more likely to form a synergy; otherwise, the eye-catching USD figure may be more striking than the actual impact.
I will continue to monitor the source of the burns and on-chain activity. Do you value this supply reduction more, or the subsequent real usage demand? Let's keep an eye on the follow-up and see whose speculation is closer.$METIS vs $RSR : Is Selling Pressure Creating an Opportunity?
Both tokens are falling, but the real story is how traders are positioned.
$METIS shows persistent bearish pressure, with profitable shorts and struggling longs. Recent selling still outweighs buying, suggesting buyers haven't regained control.
$RSR looks even more vulnerable. Short positioning is stronger, and fresh selling reinforces the bearish sentiment. "The bonus from password sharing is over, is Netflix relying on ads to survive? Three numbers to watch on October 20"
Netflix will announce earnings after the market closes on October 20. Key points first: the company guides Q3 revenue at $12.86 billion (+12%), operating margin at 33.2% (28.2% same period last year)—the story of margins is more attractive than revenue.
The real test has three parts: ① Can ad revenue reach $800 million (Q2's $618 million missed expectations and serves as a lesson); ② Will revenue growth fall into single digits (17.6% → 13.4% → guidance 11.7%, stepping down all the way); ③ Can price increases plus ads offset subscription slowdown. The bonus from password sharing is over, and the growth engine is shifting gears.
The stock price has dropped 24% in the past three months, forward P/E is 19.9x, about 60% of the 5-year average—expectations are already low, but don't rush to bottom-fish; the 7% drop after Q2 earnings was due to soft guidance.
Mapping to crypto: US stocks have earnings reports to falsify narratives, crypto only has macro. BTC 80800 is holding the 80000 level; tonight's triple PPI release is the first to watch. If macro doesn't ease, all narratives are just distant hopes.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 On October 19, the crypto market showed a clear gap: prices were under pressure, but structural progress was accelerating.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $910 million over two weeks, with a cumulative net outflow of $615 million in October. BTC briefly fell below $80,000, slightly dipping below the average cost line of ETF holders (around $82,300). The trigger was the September CPI rebound to about 3.7%, with a 5% risk-free rate siphoning off risk appetite. However, ETF net inflows remain positive year-to-date at about $355 million, indicating that the institutional base has not collapsed.
What is truly advancing is the "machine spending" concept. On October 9, HSBC and Ant Group completed AI agent micro-payment technology verification in Hong Kong: AI agents autonomously discovered digital services and initiated tokenized deposit payments; HSBC verified and settled in real time, with transactions completed on a blockchain testnet in real time. The x402 protocol has accumulated about 109.6 million transactions, each with a very small amount, but frequency is rising. This is still a technology verification, not a commercial launch, but the fact that banks have already integrated the payment process itself is a signal.
On the regulatory side, the CLARITY Act remains stalled after procedural obstacles in the Senate in September. SEC Chair Atkins stated that the framework will continue to be advanced under existing authority. Currently, a series of institutional rules and exemptions provide a bottom line; these are more fragile than legislation but sufficient for banks and asset managers to continue testing.
In the short term, the question is whether ETF outflows can converge near the cost line; in the medium term, whether AI agent payments can move from testnets into production environments. $BTC $ETH To pour some cold water first, I don't see this burn as a new bullish turning point. The key is whether the quarterly action can bring about an earnings surprise. The BNB Foundation announced the completion of the 37th quarterly burn of BNB Chain, with a total of 1,646,196.44 BNB burned, estimated at about $1.197 billion at the time of the burn, leaving a total remaining supply of 131,512,085 BNB. The numbers are large, but my judgment on $BNB remains cautious for now.
I'm stuck on two points: First, this is already the 37th quarterly burn, so the market has reason to have anticipated supply contraction in advance; if everyone has already expected it, the news landing may not bring much new stimulus. Second, a decrease in total supply does not mean a proportional reduction in short-term tradable chips. The information does not clarify whether the burned tokens were previously circulating in the market, so I won't directly interpret it as an equal scale of selling pressure disappearing. For ordinary users following the news, this distinction is more important than the dollar amount.
Of course, the bulls might be right. I'm not denying scarcity, but I am unwilling to pay a premium for unverified demand. If subsequent on-chain usage demand continues to strengthen and we can see tradable supply tightening simultaneously, I will adjust my judgment. Are you bullish or bearish on this burn? Share your reasons: do you value supply reduction more, or worry that the positive news has already been priced in? #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Although operating profit margin is expected to rise from 28.2% to 33.2%, this margin improvement is based on cutting labor costs rather than a surge in core business. Subscription growth is slowing, and the advertising business is still in its cultivation phase, so distant help can't solve immediate problems. We shouldn't be too optimistic about the better-than-expected earnings report; profits squeezed out through layoffs raise concerns about quality. The stock price had already slightly declined before the earnings report, so it's best to wait and watch, being cautious of valuation cuts after expectations are met. Better to wait a bit and be more cautious.Look at the drop in these few US stocks like $MSTR; if anyone still says US stocks are more stable than crypto, I’m ready to argue. In the crypto world, it’s all the same roller coaster ride:
Take $CRCL for example, clearly the purest stablecoin narrative, yet it dropped 5.46% in one day last week. Fortunately, it slowly recovered over the weekend.
Circle’s quarterly revenue has now reached 700 million, up 6.6% year-over-year. Its market cap is 20.9 billion, which is not cheap anymore. But it’s definitely a good sector, with giants like Visa and Mastercard racing to get involved.
MSTR is even worse off; it’s basically a leveraged Bitcoin substitute, and then it got hit by the MSCI delisting rumors, dropping 10% in one day. It had been rising nicely the past two months, but now its mNAV is squeezed back to 1.07x, almost wiping out the premium.
$COIN is supposed to be the one to watch for trading volume, but it doesn’t get as much attention as CRCL. It’s clearly a fee-earning business and should be treated like other exchange platform tokens, but due to low attention, it also dropped 7% in one day and is even more fragile than MSTR when the market is quiet. #MSCI新规或将Strategy等BTC财库公司移出指数 "The strong get stronger, the weak get weaker"
Friday's judgment basically came true: $BTC stayed steady above $80,000 and even touched around $82,000; ETH, however, still struggled repeatedly just before the $2,500 mark.
The strength comparison is very clear. The $ETH/BTC ratio dropped to a low near 0.0347, and the price remains below the 200-day moving average range of $2,483–$2,495, technically continuing to show weakness. Capital is also voting with its feet: last week, the spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $320 million, while the BTC ETF had a net outflow of $228 million. The selling pressure on Ethereum is clearly heavier.
Both are undergoing adjustments, but BTC holds firm while ETH fails to break through. Right now, it’s not about who rebounds faster, but who loses less blood. BTC is temporarily playing the role of stabilizer, while ETH still needs to wait for ETF funds to stop the bleeding. Before the market gives a clear answer, position sizing is more important than opinions. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 [Research Report Quick Review] A rebound does not equal a reversal. A slight price uptick has triggered collective calls for "bottom confirmation," but from the perspective of capital behavior, this round looks more like a pulse rally driven by short-term funds. Large accounts are actually reducing exposure by taking advantage of liquidity windows, while retail investors chasing highs face increased risk.
Regarding BTC, spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows recently, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars; hotter-than-expected US inflation data has caused interest rate hike expectations to retreat, with prices oscillating around the $80,000 range. Institutions are generally reducing positions, with no sustained capital support observed.
For ETH, ETFs have experienced large net outflows for more than ten consecutive days, with weekly net outflows in the hundreds of millions; although prices briefly rose above $2400, the capital side is still bleeding, and recovery signals lack underlying support.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC I think the price dropped back from about 83,000 to just over 82,000 in the afternoon, don't assume the rebound has stabilized. Spot price is about $82,323 (Beijing 18:39, Coinbase).To be honest: among these three short positions, the one I watch most closely is $ZEC. It's not that I'm afraid it won't drop, but that it might suddenly start spinning a story.😅
$BTC: Tugging near the 50-day moving average, Aroon Down is high, and the short-term downtrend structure remains intact. But the main pressure comes from long-term interest rates—30-year at 5.67%, 10-year above 5%—investors have no patience for non-yielding assets. The old narrative of whales dumping has faded, and on-chain selling pressure is receding. Watch the 10-year yield; if it eases, then exit.📉
$ETH: ETF continuous outflows are obvious; last week net outflow was 542 million, with BlackRock alone at 477 million. But after ten days of bad news spreading, marginal damage is weakening. ETH has shallow liquidity and dense leverage; once outflows narrow, the rebound will be stronger than BTC. It's a sprint, not a marathon.💸
$ZEC: From late September's 1650–1700 drop to around 1165, technically bearish, but the NU7 decision window on October 20 is a binary event. The testnet block time is cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, with the mainnet target on November 5. Shorting ZEC is betting that sentiment won't buy the catalyst ahead of time. It's an offensive move, not ballast; low leverage and isolated margin are hard constraints.⚡
Are you planning to hold your ZEC short until October 20 to bet on “selling the fact,” or take some profits first?🤔 #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 In the futures market, when assessing whether an institution is well-capitalized, I usually start by reviewing income and cash reserves rather than just listening to stories about scale. But when it comes to the crypto market, this old yardstick needs to be applied differently. The profitability of a stablecoin treasury and whether holders can smoothly redeem are not the same thing.
The USDD treasury report for Q3 2026 shows revenue of $9.7 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.7%, expenses of $7,601, and a net profit of about $9.7 million; the treasury balance reached $31.24 million, surpassing $30 million for the first time, setting a new record.
My judgment is that this is somewhat positive for $USDD's operational accumulation, but it cannot yet be taken as proof that stability has been achieved. Revenue growth and treasury increase indicate that the balance sheet buffer is expanding; however, this summary does not explain the source and sustainability of the income, and expenses are very low. I would want to verify the cost accounting standards and not simply extrapolate net profit forward.
In traditional finance, a good income statement cannot replace liquidity checks; applied to stablecoins, I am more concerned about reserve quality, liability scale, and redemption arrangements. If the treasury assets can be promptly utilized under stress, then this accumulation carries more weight. This is my speculation.
Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? Looking at this report, would you first check the source of income or the reserves and redemption mechanism?Suddenly remembered that today $UNI and $BCH futures officially launched on CME,
becoming the 10th and 11th single-coin futures,
but the market showed no reaction at all.
As expected, seasoned players are just seasoned players,
looking back, the price was basically at its highest when the news came out,
then it just kept drifting down.
That said, these are cash-settled, so institutions don’t have to touch a single coin.
CME itself says it’s for clients to "manage price risk," so who used it first?
BCH miners, funds holding UNI for voting, and project treasuries wanting to lock prices without selling coins, the easiest move is to open short positions.
So what futures bring more of is hedging, not buying pressure.
But still have to say:
Cherish your life,
stay away from seasoned players.$BTC $FIL $TIA
Today the market took a direct plunge, overall risk sentiment is very poor, BTC can't hold and is being pushed down, altcoins are falling even harder, with coins like $TIA and FIL that had earlier rotation-driven rallies experiencing even larger pullbacks.
Simply put, the reasons are:
1. Risk capital is withdrawing; the US stock market is weak, and in correlation, crypto funds are unwilling to stay in high-risk coins, with insufficient buying power, so even a slight sell-off leads to rapid declines.
2. Breaking key support triggered a chain liquidation; after prices broke critical support levels, a large number of long positions were liquidated, and the more it falls, the greater the selling pressure, causing a stampede.
3. This round is essentially a battle for existing funds, with no continuous inflow of new capital; previous small coin rallies were all short-term funds pumping and then exiting, so when the market drops, they collectively cash out immediately.
In terms of strategy, don't rush to bottom-fish now; this is a panic-selling phase, so don't casually catch falling knives. Be patient with spot positions and wait for stabilization signals; try to keep futures positions empty, as altcoins will be much more volatile than BTC.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC institutional funds weaken, who will see a return flow first, BTC or ETH?
This round of institutional fund withdrawal is essentially a contraction of risk assets under repeated macro expectations. According to the historical pattern of ETF funds, **BTC is highly likely to be the first to see institutional return flow**, while ETH's fund recovery is often delayed and requires a higher market risk appetite.
BTC is positioned as a major asset allocation in the crypto field. Institutional funds enter to diversify assets, hedge inflation, and geopolitical risks. As long as the Federal Reserve's policy expectations marginally ease, large asset managers will prioritize allocating BTC spot ETFs, making fund reversal signals easier to appear. ETH, with stronger growth attributes combined with uncertainties in staking, ecosystem, and regulatory aspects, requires institutions to see a warming crypto ecosystem and improved on-chain activity before allocating ETH. This belongs to the second phase of market funds, with a higher risk appetite threshold.
However, there is a variable here: if the market later experiences a strong style rotation and small-cap coins collectively start, ETH may see retail funds leading a catch-up rally, while institutional funds remain cautious, resulting in a price rebound diverging from ETF funds. To judge the authenticity of fund return flow, one should not only look at single-day inflows but focus on two indicators: ETF funds turning positive for three consecutive trading days and whale addresses no longer continuously reducing holdings.#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $BTC's recent wave today saw long positions closed near the peak, which can be observed in the actual delivery orders. It's not bearish; the reason for the rise is just off.
From the morning's low point, it surged quite a bit, looking fierce. But in the liquidation data, 97% of the positions liquidated in the last hour were shorts — the price was pushed up by short stop-losses, not by real money buying. Both futures and options volumes have doubled, yet the price hasn't moved far.
The structure hasn't broken through either; today's highest point is still some distance from the 20-day moving average, it hasn't even touched it. The 83,000 resistance has been pushed back several times before. On Binance and OKX, the long-short ratio of accounts is above 1.5, retail investors are chasing longs, but the entire market combined is almost balanced — the ones chasing are mostly small accounts. ETFs are still seeing outflows, institutions haven't returned.
So the longs were closed. Shorts covered, but no one is stepping in below. If you really want to be bullish, wait until it breaks above the 20-day moving average with volume. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $KORU $KORU added two positive factors over the weekend. Personally, I still lean bearish, but I don't think it will keep dropping straight down.
The semiconductor sector has been falling these days. The issue is no longer just about chip sales performance, but the market starting to worry whether the huge AI investments can actually pay off. Coupled with expensive financing, high oil prices, and Chinese memory manufacturers catching up faster, funds have been continuously withdrawing.
However, two positive news came out on Sunday: one is that South Korea said the semiconductor boom might remain strong until 2027; the other is news about the next-generation HBM from Samsung, TSMC, and Nvidia. These two pieces of news will only start trading in Korea on Monday, so I think there might be a rally first on Monday.
Monday might see a rebound to 10.9–11.6 → if SK Hynix and foreign capital still don't follow, it will drop back to 9.6–10.2 → then rebound once more → by Wednesday lean towards 8.8–9.6.
Right now, I don't expect KORU to crash immediately; I tend to expect a rebound first, then continued weakness. The most important thing on Monday is to see whether Samsung and SK Hynix rise together and whether foreign capital really buys back. If only Samsung rises due to the positive news but SK Hynix remains weak, I will treat the rebound as just a temporary correction before further decline.
On Wednesday, we also need to watch South Korea's chip exports and Nvidia's GTC. If these two provide very strong positive news and the market is truly willing to buy this time, then my bearish view might be wrong, and KORU could have a chance to recover directly to around 12.3 or even 13.I just analyzed the relationship between $ETH spot ETF capital flows and price trends.
Currently, the ETH ETF has experienced net capital outflows for 3 consecutive weeks.
Historically, when the ETH ETF has had net capital outflows for 3 or more consecutive weeks, the ETH price has seen declines of 30%–40%.
If this historical pattern repeats, ETH may face further downward pressure, potentially dropping to the $1,900 range.
However, historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes. Going forward, it is still necessary to monitor whether ETF capital flows continue to worsen and whether ETH prices can hold key support levels. Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother!
The core pain point in the current crypto market is the continuous withdrawal of institutional funds, with ETH experiencing a much larger capital outflow than BTC, leading to a sustained depletion of overall market buying power.
Recent data from October 12 to 16 shows that the US stock BTC spot ETF had a cumulative net outflow of $228 million, while ETH ETF redemptions reached as high as $320 million, highlighting a significant gap in capital flight. Meanwhile, corporate treasuries invested in crypto assets have completely halted additional purchases. The buying volume from institutions and corporations cannot absorb the selling pressure from long-term holders, with the annual BTC supply-demand gap reaching the scale of one hundred thousand coins, and the market fundamentals continuing to weaken.
The negative impact of the capital retreat has spread widely. Data shows that recently, over a hundred altcoins have dropped on average more than 14%, far exceeding BTC's mere 3% decline. Coupled with shrinking market trading volume and reduced stablecoin liquidity, the on-exchange liquidity continues to dry up, resulting in a weak market characterized by a battle over existing supply.
At this stage, there is no need to worry about whether BTC or ETH will rebound first; the core issue is the persistent absence of incremental off-exchange funds. The market bottom has not yet been confirmed, so avoid blindly bottom-fishing due to short-term overselling. Patiently waiting for ETF funds to turn from negative to positive and form a sustained inflow signal is the reliable basis for market stabilization.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC How did everyone rest over the weekend? I didn't sleep well at all.
This morning's rare weekend surge pushed $ETH Ethereum directly down to 2315, and the crisis feeling from the Korean stock market crash spread through the huge weekend volume.
But looking at the closing candle, it pulled back from the 2315 level to consolidate around 2400, indicating that there is still support from funds below. After the breakdown and drop, the downward momentum is actually insufficient, so a large-scale drop is unlikely to happen again in the short term. But don't be too happy yet.
The US stock market plunged sharply with no rebound, and the situation is worse than we thought. This morning, tech stocks took another heavy hit of over 5%. For Korean stocks like koru, if they can't pull back from the danger zone at Monday's open, it might trigger a new round of long position stampede. Koru alone has accumulated over 50 million USD in long positions around the 10 price level.
This collapse in the Korean stock market signals something like the 2008 avalanche: back then, Korean stocks fell over 80% in a week, and now this wave has already dropped 60%. $xSKHY $xKORU #韩股修复反弹，外资卖压能否缓解？ #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期
Will this META earnings report exceed expectations?
Last quarter results: Revenue slightly exceeded expectations, but profit and cash flow fell short.
✅ Total revenue around $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year. Income from advertising and WhatsApp subscriptions increased by 73%.
❌ Net profit declined 14% year-over-year, and free cash flow shrank significantly.
———————————————————————
Now, about this quarter:
Advertising base: Advantage+ annualized revenue run rate has exceeded $75 billion, with revenue up 27.5% year-over-year compared to last quarter.
Revenue may slightly exceed market expectations; advertising business remains stable but has slowed compared to Q2.
However, there is bad news:
There is a lawsuit.
There is a one-time settlement fee of about $10 billion with the U.S. bank state attorney general.
GAAP net profit will be dragged down by legal settlement costs, but adjusted earnings excluding this one-time expense will likely be close to expectations.
But the core factors determining stock price are not revenue and EPS, but capital expenditure + free cash flow.
AI computing power investment is burning cash, Muse AI just launched subscriptions; if impressive commercialization data is disclosed, it can offset the high investment.
So this time, I say Yes.
Revenue will most likely slightly exceed the adjusted EPS expectations.
@misaENFP @okxchinese
#OKX美股财报季 #OKX达人 #交易TradFi就来OKXWhen the crypto market $BTC and $ETH complete a key bottoming process in the summer of 2026, the core question for market participants is no longer whether the bottom is confirmed, but rather which will lead the core momentum of the next bull market.
Variant investment partner Alana Levin has observed a deep consensus forming among institutional investors: the marginal dollars flowing into the market next will concentrate into two camps — the first being assets anchored by Bitcoin, which inherently carry monetary attributes and value storage functions; the second being protocol projects with real profitability. In contrast, the third category, concept projects attached to the AI narrative, harbor arbitrage traps where token valuations and equity returns are disconnected, requiring investors to remain cautious. Furthermore, the resilience shown by quality projects in the last cycle indicates that the crypto market ecosystem is maturing, no longer repeating the destructive drawdowns of over 90% seen in the past. The volatility structure is beginning to align with traditional mature financial markets, with drawdowns converging to a moderate range of 10% to 30%.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ To start with a cold splash of water, "having the conditions to form a bottom" is still quite a distance from "bottom confirmation." I am reluctant to treat this news as a bullish pass. CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan stated that exchange $BTC reserves have risen from about 2.67 million at the beginning of October to about 2.68 million, still below January levels, but the supply-demand improvement is uneven.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, exchange supply has not continued to shrink; if the new reserves turn into sellable chips, then demand must absorb this supply—forming a bottom cannot rely solely on sellers holding back. Second, the information mentions spot demand turning negative again and whale accumulation diverging, which means the demand side has not formed a unified support. Interpreting some whale accumulation as a collective bullish stance by large funds, I think, is reading a partial action as a consensus across the board.
But bears should not get excited too quickly either; the reserve increase may come from custody adjustments and cannot be directly counted as selling pressure. Bulls could very well be right: if subsequent spot demand continues to turn positive and whale accumulation no longer shows obvious divergence, even if reserves do not immediately decline, I would reduce my doubts about bottom formation. Are you bullish or bearish? Do you think the demand turning negative is enough to deny bottom formation, or is the supply still being below January levels more convincing? Please share your reasons. #CoreWeave reduces holdings by $3.3 billion, AI financing risk heats up
The boss has something to say
CoreWeave is in trouble again. Since the IPO, the three co-founders have sold a total of $3.3 billion in stock, with $2.4 billion sold this year alone. The company says the reduction was disclosed as planned, and the three still hold 20% of the shares. But the market is not buying it; the stock price dropped 25% in a single week, and long-term bond yields exceeded 15%.
I believe this is a clear signal that AI financing risk is heating up. There are two reasons. First, the founders cashed out at a high point, indicating insiders think the valuation is about right. Second, bond yields breaking 15%, CDS soaring, the credit market is repricing AI financing risk. The high-leverage expansion model is losing market trust. Bank of America also warned that the surge in AI investment could repeat historical capital cycles.
The impact on crypto is indirect. If AI infrastructure financing tightens, risk appetite will shrink, and Bitcoin will also face pressure. But Bitcoin's main conflicts remain CPI, PPI, and US Treasury yields.
Yesterday, I took profit on my short at 81,900 at 80,800; my long at 81,800 is still open with a stop loss at 80,500, first target at 84,000, second target at 86,000. Resistance above is between 84,000 and 85,000, support below at 80,000. Reduce positions at targets, keep the rest at breakeven.
CoreWeave's reduction is a risk signal for the AI sector, not a directional switch. Don't chase the rise or kill the fall; set your stop losses well. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitiveZEC at $1160, can you bring yourself to sell?
From 1698 down to 1049, a 25% drop in 30 days, Coinbase delisting, EU ban countdown, the whole network shouting "privacy coins are dead"—but just after everyone cleared out, it bounced back to 1160, with the largest on-chain whale averaging 1179, holding on despite floating losses, liquidation price far down at 838. Is this the last chance to escape, or a golden pit before the NU7 upgrade?
Let's look at the surface first: the bad news is done, but the price hasn't collapsed.
From the high of 1698 at the end of September, it dropped all the way to 1049, nearly halving by 40%. Then what?
It pulled back from 1049 to 1160, repeatedly testing around 1165 intraday. RSI at 40-45, neutral to weak, price below the 20-day moving average—all indicators telling you one thing: weak consolidation, no clear direction.
But wait.
Are you sure that just because it stopped falling, it means it will rise?
First: Is the NU7 upgrade a lifeline or a death sentence?
On October 20, tomorrow, the Zcash team will decide whether to launch NU7 on the mainnet based on testnet results. Target activation date is November 5.
What does NU7 do?
Block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, nearly 3 times faster. Fees split 60% to public reserve, 40% to miners. The harshest part—old Sprout pool completely closed, about 22,000 ZEC locked forever.
In plain terms:
If the upgrade succeeds, ZEC’s usability and long-term sustainability take a step up. If the upgrade fails or the decision is postponed on the 20th, all bulls betting on "November bullishness" get buried.
There’s a giant whale on-chain averaging 1179, currently at a floating loss, liquidation price 838. What is it betting on? It’s betting on NU7 in November.
But the more people bet on good news, the harsher the sell-off when the good news lands.
Good news fully priced in is bad news—this phrase has never failed in crypto.
Second: The ETF application is real, but Coinbase running away is also real.
On October 6, the Winklevoss brothers submitted an S-1 for a Zcash spot ETF to the SEC, ticker WINK, 0.25% fee, planning to list on Nasdaq, and promised to buy up to $100 million in shares.
Sounds exciting, right?
Grayscale’s ZEC trust converted to an ETF in August, and 21Shares launched a ZEC ETP in Europe. Institutional channels are opening.
But on the other hand—
In April 2026, Coinbase delisted ZEC citing compliance risks. EU rules starting July 2027 will restrict privacy coins, and a major exchange has already stopped offering ZEC to users in India and UAE.
One side is Wall Street knocking, the other is exchanges shutting doors.
Third: The technical side has only one question—can it hold?
Support: 1049-1050 (previous low), 1000 (psychological level).
Resistance: 1180-1200 (dense short liquidation zone), 1250 (20-day MA), 1300+.
Current price stuck at 1160, neither up nor down.
15-minute and 30-minute funds are flowing out; the 1-hour pump is driven by short stop-loss feeding, not real buying.
What does this mean?
If 1160 breaks, next stop 1133, then 1049 if that breaks.
If 1160 holds, there’s a short "blood bag" at 1180-1205; the main force might squeeze shorts using NU7 news.
But short squeezes are short-term gambles, not trend reversals. Until the daily structure returns above the moving average, any rebound is a downtrend continuation, not a bottom.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
Bulls:
- NU7 target activation November 5, decision on October 20
- Winklevoss ETF application with $100 million support promise
- Quantum resistance roadmap advancing, privacy narrative long-term
- Whale averaging 1179 holding despite losses, liquidation at 838
Bears:
- Coinbase delisted, EU ban in 2027
- Daily price below 20-day MA, weak structure
- 1160 rebound driven by short stop-loss, not real buying
- From 1698 down to 1160, massive trapped positions
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Buy lightly on a pullback to 1150-1155 with stop loss below 1130. Target 1188-1200, sell half at target. If it can’t break 1188, flip to short with stop loss at 1205, target 1160-1140. Don’t chase in the middle at 1160, both sides are risky.
Swing traders:
Wait for the NU7 decision on October 20. If it proceeds and price holds above 1200, consider mid-term positions targeting 1250-1300. If delayed or breaks below 1133, close the page and wait for 1049 or even 1000.
ZEC now is like XMR in 2024—
Everyone says "privacy coins are killed by regulation," but every time regulatory news lands, there’s a "bad news fully priced in" rebound.
But the trapped positions falling from the peak mean every rebound is their escape window.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ "Short Covering, Rebound Still Weak"
On Monday morning, the crypto market began to recover after the weekend flash crash. $BTC dipped near 80750 before quickly reclaiming 82000; ETH bottomed around 2360 and then rebounded, climbing back above 2400.
The direct driver of this rebound was short covering. On-chain data shows that traders had large short positions on $ETH near 2366 the previous night. The morning price rebound to 2409 triggered some liquidations, with the remaining short liquidation price at 2419 just one step away from the current price. In a low liquidity environment, the short squeeze effect was amplified, becoming a key micro driver in the morning session.
However, the sustainability of the rebound faces challenges. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen continuous outflows recently, the US tech sector remains weak, and overall risk appetite is under pressure. The total market cap still declined about 1.4% over 24 hours, and mainstream coins mostly gained less than 1%, indicating this is more of a technical rebound after overselling rather than a trend reversal. Without incremental buying, whether BTC can hold the psychological level of $80,000 will be a key anchor for short-term sentiment.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 July 594, yesterday 300, today it bounced more than 6%.
Western Digital completed a full 50% drop in four months.
The intraday high on July 14 was 594.53, the low on October 18 was 300, a drop of 49.5%.
Today before the market opened, it briefly bounced to 341, up 6.86%.
But it’s still 43% below the July high, and only 13% into the 100-day range.
I think this looks more like short covering, not that people have started to turn bullish.
Look at today’s cross-section.
The biggest gainers are the ones that fell the most: WDC up nearly 7%, SNDK up over 6%, MU up nearly 5%.
The only sector down today is energy, XLE -1.58%, crude oil -2.20%.
And XLE stands at 89% of its 100-day range, the highest level among all sectors.
Money isn’t flowing from energy to storage; someone sold after making enough profit, then bought the ones that fell and were unwanted.
These two things happening on the same day look more like portfolio rebalancing, not a new trend.
The real dividing line is at 371.
That’s the opening price of the big bearish candle on October 15, which closed down 6.13% that day.
If it can’t get back above that, today’s move is just a rebound; if it does, then we can talk about recovery.
I lean toward it not getting back above; it fell too fast, and the overhead supply hasn’t been fully digested yet.
$WDC
#AfterTheHalvingAfter CT surged, about $6.38 million was traded continuously for two hours, but the price still hasn't returned above $0.40.
OKEx data shows that at 15:00, a full hour saw about $5.23 million traded, closing at $0.40422; at 16:00 about $3.46 million, closing at $0.38118; at 17:00 about $2.92 million, closing at $0.38740. By 18:22 Beijing time, the spot price was about $0.38135, still up about 20.9% in 24 hours.
I am more focused on the follow-through after the sharp rise. The rebound at 17:00 did not reclaim the 15:00 closing price, and then the price returned near the 16:00 close. Looking only at the full-day gain can easily overlook this volume-driven turnover.
If subsequent full hours close back above $0.40422, I will revise my currently cautious judgment; if it closes below $0.38118 and trading volume continues to expand, we need to watch whether selling pressure after the sharp rise still persists.
$CT Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother!
On Monday morning, after the crypto market experienced a weekend flash crash, it started a recovery rebound. BTC hit a low near 80750, then bulls quickly took action, pushing it back above 82000; ETH simultaneously found a bottom around 2360 and rebounded, reclaiming the 2400 level again.
The core driver of this rally is short covering forcing a short squeeze. On-chain data shows that some funds heavily shorted ETH at 2366 the night before, and the price surge to 2409 in the morning triggered partial liquidation of short positions, with the remaining short liquidation point at 2419, very close to the current price. Market liquidity is relatively weak, amplifying the short squeeze effect, which became the micro driver of the morning rebound.
However, note that the sustainability of this rebound is still questionable. Macro pressures remain, BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows recently, combined with weakness in US tech stocks, overall risk appetite is weak. The total market cap still declined about 1.4% in 24 hours, mainstream coins generally showed small gains, essentially a technical rebound from oversold conditions rather than a trend reversal. Without new incremental buying entering the market, whether the psychological support at 80000 for BTC can hold is the core short-term market sentiment anchor.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $ETH $ETH $ZEC France's 10-year yield jumped past 4.88% as unrest intensified fiscal fears. Italy hit 4.55%. US 10-year yields moved the opposite way, near 5.07%. Bitcoin rose 2.1% in Reuters' European-morning snapshot. This isn't proof crypto is a safe haven. It's a reminder that currency stress, sovereign debt and risk appetite can collide in a single session. The chart to watch: French vs German bond yields. $BTC #CryptoTreasuryDivides #Macro#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 No signs of takeoff for now I analyzed the relationship between $ETH ETF flows and price action. ETH ETFs have seen three consecutive weeks of outflows, a pattern historically associated with 30–40% price declines. If history repeats, ETH could potentially fall toward the $1,900 zone.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins ETFs are still bleeding, but someone is quietly accumulating
US spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $549 million last week.
It looks scary, but it's less than half of the $1.22 billion outflow the week before, so the bleeding is slowing down.
ETH is worse: a cumulative outflow of $955 million in October, the largest single-month outflow this year.
BTC has had outflows for two consecutive weeks, ETH has lost for three straight weeks.
Yet prices haven't collapsed.
BTC fell below 80,000 last week but climbed back to around 82,700 today, holding above the 50-day moving average.
Off-chain data is even more interesting.
Chainalysis says the US became a net BTC importer for the first time since 2022.
CryptoQuant: Since the end of August, whales have increased holdings by 60,000 BTC, totaling nearly 3 million BTC.
ETFs are being redeemed, but someone is quietly taking the supply.
I think this shows retail and institutions diverging: retail fears rate hikes and redeems ETFs, smart money buys on the dip, observing positions without chasing.
This judgment fails if BTC falls back below $80,000 or if weekly ETF outflows expand again to the billion-dollar level, then my judgment is void.
Do you trust ETF fund flows or whale wallets?
$BTC $ETH $MSTR
#ETFFundFlows #Bitcoin $DOGE Dogecoin is just waiting for you to rise, come on 🐶 Show some strength with a deep V breakout
doge short cycles of 1 hour, 4 hours, and 12 hours show liquidation amounts of short positions crushing longs, especially in the 1-hour chart where longs barely get liquidated, all the liquidations are on shorts, indicating a short-term surge that wipes out all the shorts lurking at low levels.
But when extended to 24 hours, the situation reverses: 3.835 million in long liquidations far exceeds 749,000 in shorts.
This means: short-term sharp rallies wipe out shorts, but over the whole day, the bulls chasing the rise are the main ones getting harvested.
This is typical for MEME coins like Dogecoin, where a pump lures in longs, and once everyone rushes in, the market often turns downward again. The short-term rebound looks fierce, but don’t get carried away chasing it; this kind of back-and-forth shakeout can easily hurt both sides.🔍 The amount of coins in exchanges has increased again. Is someone preparing to sell, or has a wallet moved? When I review this information, the point I most want to track is this doubt—don’t rush to conclusions yet.
CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan stated that BTC exchange reserves have risen from about 2.67 million coins in early October to about 2.68 million coins, but still remain below January levels. He believes Bitcoin has certain conditions for bottoming out, but supply and demand improvements are uneven.
An interesting detail here: reserves no longer decline, meaning we can no longer support the judgment of tightening supply by saying "coins in exchanges are decreasing"; but the increase may also come from custody adjustments, so it cannot be directly equated with selling pressure. The headline also mentions spot demand turning negative and whale accumulation divergence, but this summary does not provide specific data, so I will treat them as clues to be verified.
This is my speculation: for short-term sentiment on $BTC, this looks more like a cautious signal rather than confirmation of bottoming. If weakening demand is confirmed and the added reserves are indeed available for sale, then the pressure to absorb them is more worrisome; if it’s just custody relocation, judging by reserves alone can easily lead to misinterpretation.
I will continue to monitor the source of the added reserves and whether spot demand matches. Do you suspect this is a sell-off preparation or a custody adjustment? Which data would you use to verify? Let’s watch the follow-up together and see whose speculation is closer.Wall Street is once again boosting storage chips, saying that the recent drop in US storage stocks has seriously deviated from fundamentals, valuations have basically been cut to the bone, and AI storage demand is not as bad as the market thinks. They even predict that from 2027 to 2028, the prices, revenue, and profit margins of storage chips can still be maintained at the high levels of a super cycle.
After reading this, I couldn't help but laugh. Not long ago, the market was frantically hyping AI storage shortages and price hikes, eager to price in profits for the next few years all at once. Now that the stocks have dropped, they're telling everyone that the worries were overblown. Wall Street sure switches narratives quickly.
But I do admit one thing: AI data centers do support demand for HBM and high-performance storage, and manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all benefiting from this wave. The problem is, the storage industry has gone through several super cycles before. Every time the market is at its peak, everyone thinks this time it will last longer, but in the end, supply and demand changes are unavoidable.
Especially for stocks like Micron and SanDisk, which were once wildly chased by capital, I remain bearish. Even if profits really stay high in 2027, that doesn't mean today's stock price is cheap. The stock market trades on expectations; even if profit growth drops from 100% to 20%, the company might still be making money, but valuations can still be slashed significantly.
Whether the rebound can hold, whether downstream AI capital expenditure has slowed, and whether storage prices can continue to rise—until these questions are clear, I'd rather keep waiting #芯片股八连跌后反弹，AI交易能否修复？ In this round of capital inflow competition, what truly determines the order of inflow is not the small amount of new money from ETFs, but whether the selling pressure from old money has been fully released.
Looking at the new money from ETFs and corporate treasuries, they simply can't absorb the cashing out wave from long-term holders; the supply-demand gap is terrifyingly large. The essence of the current decline is that old money from the previous era is frantically distributing, and new money can't hold the market. Who can inflow first? It depends on whose old money runs out first.
For Bitcoin $BTC, the distribution of chips by long-term holders is already nearing the end, and the trend of whales transferring coins to exchanges stopped long ago. Selling pressure is marginally weakening; old money is no longer dumping, so the foundation naturally stabilizes, and once capital flows back, it can rise immediately.
But for Ethereum $ETH, it's a completely different story. Ethereum's fundamental problem isn't ETF outflows, but the heavy historical burden. Early ICO whales and early foundation-related addresses hold massive zero-cost chips and are still lining up to move to exchanges. New money coming in to bottom-fish directly runs into these ancient scythes. Bitcoin's bottom is supported by institutions, while Ethereum's bottom is heavily suppressed by old-era scythes.
I used to focus obsessively on ETF inflows and outflows, but only after reviewing did I understand this logic. Don't bet on Ethereum rebounding first; its historical burden is too heavy. Bitcoin is the one with the cleanest and most confident base to welcome capital inflow first. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ In the futures market, I've seen a common misjudgment: seeing a large short position and assuming the trader must have some special insight. After years of trading commodities, I've developed a habit of first calculating how much reverse volatility the position can withstand before considering the direction.
This time, I monitored Core Trader 11 (0xe31062…4d444) opening a short position of 500 $SNDK with 10x leverage, with a nominal value of about $676,500. This is an opening position, not a profit already realized. I'm more concerned about his risk budget rather than taking the amount as evidence of bearishness.
Roughly dividing the nominal value by leverage, the corresponding margin is about $67,700; if the price rises 1% against the position, the short position would incur a paper loss of about $6,765, which is about one-tenth of this estimated margin, not including fees. This shows that although the position looks large, the buffer may not be thick.
Crypto on-chain monitoring differs from traditional futures order book monitoring; it can map some positions to specific addresses, but this does not mean seeing the entire account. Margin mode, additional collateral, and other positions are unknown, so you cannot directly treat a 10% reverse move as an exact liquidation threshold. My judgment is that the focus of observing this position should be on how the exposure is controlled afterward, rather than how large the short position itself is.
Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When encountering such a 10x short position, do you set the risk limit based on total account equity or single position margin, and why?【2026/10/19 East 8 Zone 18:10】Market reversal! Bitcoin strengthens, soaring today, how to plan next? Hurry and take a look
1. U.S. stock futures opened low and rose high, Bitcoin rose in sync. Last Friday I posted a long position in the 80000-81000 range, now with a profit space of 2000-3000 points;
2. Next, we need to pay attention to changes in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Oil price fluctuations relate to U.S. inflation, while changes in Treasury yields determine the direction of risk assets like U.S. stocks and crypto. From my observation, oil prices are unlikely to fall in the short term since no substantial progress has been made in U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain high, so rate hike expectations persist. As for Treasury yields, they are oscillating above 5%. Until they fall below 5%, it is difficult for U.S. stocks and crypto assets to see significant gains. Currently, this is not within consideration. The FOMC meeting this month is very likely to hold steady;
3. Bitcoin's current resistance is at the daily middle Bollinger band around 83500. Breaking through will accelerate the rise. Today's operation: go long near the 4H Bollinger middle band around 81900 on pullback. If U.S. stocks come under pressure tonight, BTC falling near 81000 can be added to the position, targeting 83500-84000. After breaking through, look straight to 86500.
Congratulations to friends who followed last week's strategy. Although the volatility was slow, the results never disappoint. The closer we get to the Federal Reserve meeting, the more opportunities expand, but risks also increase. I believe you and I can make a big move together!