戈多 Godot

前 Manta Network 首席研究员，专注美股期权和基本面。

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The earnings report clearly "exceeded expectations," yet the stock price fell. Whose expectations were actually exceeded? Recently, Messi has consulted many mentors: How should we view and find opportunities in the upcoming U.S. earnings season? Friends who usually trade BTC and ETH are familiar with capital, sentiment, and macro factors. But during the U.S. earnings season, you also need to understand the report companies deliver. To find the key, first clarify these points 👇 1️⃣ What exactly does an earnings report express? A quarterly earnings report can be understood as a company’s performance report card, but it’s not just about how much money was made. ▫️ Income Statement: How much revenue was earned, how much was spent, and the final profit. ▫️ Balance Sheet: What the company owns and owes. ▫️ Cash Flow Statement: Where the cash actually came from and where it was spent. Why look at them separately? Because sold goods might not have been paid for yet, and buying equipment or building factories also consumes cash. Profit on the books and cash in hand are not the same. When a company releases results, it may also provide guidance for the next quarter or the full year. During earnings calls, analysts will ask: Where is growth coming from? Why did costs change? How long will these changes last? 2️⃣ What are institutions busy with once earnings are released? Fundamental analysts usually compare the results to previous forecasts and break down where differences come from: ▫️ Revenue growth: Is it from selling more or raising prices? ▫️ Profit growth: Is it from core business improvement or one-time gains? ▫️ Can this quarter’s good performance be sustained? Fundamental research institutions use this information to update future profit, cash flow forecasts, and valuations. Macro factors also play a role: interest rates affect financing costs, consumption affects demand, and exchange rates affect overseas income. Even if company profits don’t change, market valuations may shift. So a good quarter doesn’t necessarily mean future expectations improve, nor does it guarantee the stock price will rise. 3️⃣ Different companies have different focuses ▫️ Health insurance companies look at how much premium income is used for medical expenses; ▫️ Cloud businesses focus on balancing growth and profit margins; ▫️ Retail companies watch sales, inventory, and discounts; ▫️ AI businesses with heavy investment look not only at revenue but also how much was spent building computing power and whether cash flow can sustain it. Even if revenue grows, whether it’s driven by core demand or by continuous discounting and increased investment can mean very different things. 4️⃣ Back to the beginning: Whose expectations were actually exceeded? The "exceeded expectations" in the news usually compares to analysts’ consensus forecasts. But this number doesn’t necessarily equal the threshold investors have in mind. For example: Analysts expect earnings of 100, but investors already expect 110. If the final report is 103, the headline can say "exceeded expectations," but the market might think it’s not good enough. Another case: This quarter is good, but management lowers guidance for the next period. Past high earnings don’t guarantee future growth at the same pace. So "better than last year," "better than forecast," and "good enough to justify the current stock price" are three different things. 5️⃣ When it comes to prediction markets, be clear about what you’re judging "Whether profit exceeds a certain number" and "whether the stock price rises after the earnings report" are two different questions. The first is more about operating results; the second also considers market expectations, valuation, and the current environment. After understanding earnings reports and participating in prediction markets, how do you express your judgment? This is also why stock perpetual contracts are worth attention. OKX has launched multiple Tradfi perpetual contract products, supporting USDT as margin, trading 24/7. For those unfamiliar with such volatility, first reading interpretations and waiting for more complete information is also a way to participate. More flexible tools don’t mean less risk. OKX Prophet Season 3 is coming soon! This season’s theme is U.S. earnings 👀 We’ve invited many quality U.S. stock traders to share earnings interpretations and trading operations on the platform. You can see what they focus on before earnings, how they analyze results, and under what circumstances they adjust their original judgments. Details on the competition format and participation will be announced later 💚

Why does the U.S. stock market often rise after midterm elections? ③ 🧐 Wall Street has a pattern that has lasted for more than 70 years. From 1950 to 2022, in 19 U.S. midterm elections, the S&P 500 rose every time in the 12 months following the election, with an average increase of about 15%. No matter which party wins, the U.S. stock market seems to always experience a rally after the election. For example, in 2022, U.S. inflation once surged to 9.1%, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively, and the stock market dropped sharply. But from the midterm election that year to one year later, the S&P 500 actually rose about 14.5%. Why is this? ———————— The first reason is the fading of uncertainty. Before the election, policies on taxes, regulations, and so on are undecided, making it difficult for investors to judge the future business environment of companies, so they demand higher risk compensation. After the election, the congressional landscape becomes clear, policy directions are easier to predict, market risk premiums may decline, and stock valuations have room to recover. So for the market, whether the result meets expectations is sometimes more important than who wins. ———————— The second reason is the cyclical recovery of the stock market. Fidelity statistics show that in the second year of a presidential term, which is the midterm election year, the average return of the U.S. stock market is about 5%. In the third year, the average return rises to 14%. Because the election year is often accompanied by political uncertainty and market volatility. Once pessimism fades, stock prices may rebound. For example, after the 2002 internet bubble burst and the 2018 market adjustments triggered by trade frictions and rate hikes, the U.S. stock market rose the following year. Of course, this is also influenced by the economic cycle and Federal Reserve monetary policy. ———————— The third reason is that Wall Street sometimes prefers a Congress that is not too easy to get things done. If the president’s party controls both the House and Senate, major policies are easier to push through. But if one chamber is lost, a "divided government" may form. The difficulty of advancing major reforms like taxes and regulations increases, and existing business rules are more likely to continue. Of course, political deadlock can also trigger budget and debt ceiling crises, bringing new risks to the market. ———————— However, there is an easily overlooked issue with all 19 times rising: The U.S. stock market itself has a long-term upward trend. Corporate earnings growth, economic expansion, and the continuous adjustment of S&P 500 component stocks all play a role. So midterm elections are just one of the factors affecting the stock market. And there is a special situation in 2026: The U.S. stock market has already risen in advance. As of early October, the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% within the year. In many past midterm election years, the stock market first experienced volatility and then recovered after the election. But this year, the market has already run ahead. If the election results meet expectations, some positive factors may have already been reflected in stock prices. To replicate the historical average post-election rise of 15%, corporate earnings need to continue growing, or the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates further. So, the end of this year’s election may allow the market to breathe a sigh of relief, but whether it can rally again depends on whether corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve can carry the baton forward.

众议院和参议院，谁更能影响美股？｜美国中期选举与美股② 首先明确传导路径是，国会选举改变财政和贸易政策预期，影响通胀、政府借款与10年期美债收益率，进而影响科技股估值。这条路径的方向，不能仅凭民主党或共和党获胜来判断。而是，分裂政府是会限制财政扩张，还是形成支出难减、赤字难降、政策冲突更多的局面？税收和拨款需要两院共同参与，任何一院都能阻止重大立法；参议院还负责确认重要人事提名。即使民主党拿下两院，总统仍然是特朗普，仍有否决权。因此，民主党赢得国会之后，市场要重新判断的是双方最终会通过什么政策。 —————— 路径一：新增财政刺激受限，收益率可能下降。假设市场原本预期，共和党保住两院后，会推出新的减税或支出计划。民主党拿下众议院，便可能降低这些方案通过的概率。新增刺激少于预期，意味着未来需求、增长和通胀压力可能减轻，政府新增借款，也可能少于原先预期。市场由此可能下调未来利率路径，支持10年期美债价格，压低收益率。摩根大通资管 6月15日的分析，把分裂政府作为基准情景，认为众议院翻转，会明显限制共和党的国内政策议程，增加财政谈判难度。同时提醒，国内立法空间收窄后，总统可能更依赖行政权力，并把政策重心转向贸易和外交。财政刺激受限，与贸易政策风险上升，可以同时发生。 —————— 路径二：双方通过增加支出来妥协，赤字未必下降。瑞银 CIO 截至9月3日，给出的情景概率是：共和党保住两院10%，民主党拿下众议院、共和党保住参议院50%，民主党拿下两院40%。认为，在分裂国会下，双方可能通过增加国防支出、推迟社会项目削减达成协议。在民主党控制两院的情景下，增税又可能受到总统阻力，最终妥协可能带来更宽的赤字、更少的财政紧缩。支出削减被推迟，收入没有相应增加，未来赤字和借款需求高于预期，长债供给压力增加。如果经济需求仍强，较宽松的财政，还可能让通胀更难回落，降低市场对降息的期待。 —————— 路径三：财政冲突提高持有长债所需的补偿。嘉信8月18日认为，如果参议院也翻转，人事确认还会增加阻力。对长期国债而言，政策反复可能让投资者要求更多补偿，这就是期限溢价。 10年期名义收益率，可以拆成实际收益率和通胀补偿。后者通常用Breakeven衡量，包含通胀预期，也受风险溢价和流动性影响。假设通胀补偿下降20个基点，名义收益率只下降5个基点，那么实际收益率反而上升15个基点。